DANMARKS NATIONALBANK - Israel Study Visit to Danmarks Nationalbank October 2013, Tue Mathiasen, Statistics
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DANMARKS NATIONALBANK Israel Study Visit to Danmarks Nationalbank October 2013, Tue Mathiasen, Statistics
Agenda • Welcome • Organization/ background • Financial Statistics • Scope • Work Programme • Cooperation • Internally • Externally – Statistics Denmark and other partners
The three main objectives of
Danmarks Nationalbank
• Stable prices
• Danmarks Nationalbank helps to maintain stable prices, i.e. low inflation.
This is done by pursuing a fixed-exchange-rate policy against the euro.
• Safe payments
• Danmarks Nationalbank promotes safe settlement of cash and electronic
payments. This is done by issuing banknotes and coins and ensuring that
payments can be settled between banks.
• A stable financial system
• Danmarks Nationalbank helps to maintain the stability of the financial
system. This is done by overseeing financial stability and payment systems,
compiling financial statistics and managing the central government’s
borrowing and debt.Legal basis • The objectives build on the Danmarks Nationalbank Act of 1936. In this it is stated that "Danmarks Nationalbank … shall as the Central Bank of this country have the object … to maintain a safe and secure currency system in this country, and to facilitate and regulate the traffic in money and the ex-tension of credit”. This description still fits the tasks of Danmarks National-bank today. • “The Bank collects, compiles and disseminates statistical information within its competence and is allowed to use this information when necessary in order for the Bank's fulfilment of its tasks, cf. § 1.” [july 2010]
Organisation
Statistics Department • Staff, primarily economists, 36 FTE
Financial Statistics - scope • Money and Banking Statistics • Statistics for Investment Funds • Securities Statistics • External Statistics • Quarterly Financial Accounts
Financial Statistics – Work Programme
• Ambitious development plan towards 2014
• New reporting schemes for BOP/IIP – recently implemented (full coverage of
I&P balances)
• New MFI-reporting system - testing
• New Securities Statistics system (sources and methods)
• New BOP/IIP and Financial Accounts systems (sources and methods) –
updated SNA/ESA
• New standardised and integrated reporting and data checking IT platform
• Financial Sector reporting to Danish FSA through Danmarks Nationalbanks
IT-platform
• Microstatistics on household wealth - financial and non-financial assets and
liabilitiesCooperation - internally • User-driven development of new and enhanced statistical products • MFI-statistics • Microstatistics on households • … • Analytical work across the statistical, capital markets and macroeconomic domains • Banks, Credit and Business Cycles • Foreign Direct Investments • Denmark as a Creditor Nation • Corporate Saving and Investment • The Banks' Interest Rates • The Wealth and Debt of Danish Families
Corperation – externally • Input/output, data and information sharing • Financial sector, FSA, Statistics Denmark, ECB/ESCB, European Commission (Eurostat), BIS, OECD and IMF
Cooperation with Statistics Denmark • Agreement on Cooperation between Statistics Denmark and Danmarks Nationalbank • Division of responsibility • Division of labour • Cooperation in various statistical areas; National Accounts, BOP/IIP, Business Register • Cooperation on output • http://statistikbanken.dk/statbank5a/default.asp?w=1920 • Cooperation on statistical development • E.g. Microstatistics on Household Wealth and Liabilities
12
MOTIVATION
Total household sector debt-ratio by country and year
Per cent o f di sposabl e in come
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Net herland s
German y
Norw ay
Denmark
Port ug al
Greece
France
Au st ria
Canada
Aust ral ia
Irelan d
Bel giu m
USA
UK
It aly
Fin land
Jap an
Sp ai n
Sw eden
1980 1995 2010
Note: For Germany 2010: The data refer to 2009. For Norway 1980: The data refer to 1987.
Source: Isaksen et. al. (2011): Household balance sheets and debt – an international country study, Danmarks Nationalbank, Monetary Review, 4th quarter, Part 2.
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish households13
MOTIVATION
• Aggregate debt ratio of Danish households is comparatively
high.
• Financial accounts can only supply aggregate data.
• In-depth analysis requires additional data on distributions.
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish households14
THE STATISTICAL SET-UP
Employers
Banks
Pension funds
Danish Tax Authority Statistics Denmark
Etc.
Person ID
Local authorities
Adresses Work place
Civil Register
Central Business Register
Dwelling ID Enterprise ID
Adresses
Building and Housing
Register
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish households15
THE STATISTICAL SET-UP
Adm. register: Adm. register: Prelim. reports: To be reported:
INCOME POPULATION MORTGAGE LOAN PENSION WEALTH
Person ID Person ID Person ID Person ID
Personal income Dwelling ID Currency Custody account
Capital income Enterprise ID Loan-to-value Guaranteed interest
Bank debt Age Interest rate details Defined benefit
Mortgage debt Civil status Deferred amortisation Tax code
Debt to foreign countr. Spouse ID Collateral (property)
Deposits Family ID Interest payment due
Shares Geography Original principal
Bonds Socio-economic status Outstanding debt
Property (taxable val.) … Arrears
Pension payments …
…
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish households16
ANALYTICAL RESULTS:
Unequal distribution of debt
Distribution of family gross debt ratio
Per cen t of f amil ies
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
< 10 10-50 50-100 100-200 200-300 300-400 400-600 600 <
Famil y g ro ss debt , p er cent
of income af t er tax
2002 2010
Note: The aggregate gross debt ratio is calculated as aggregate gross debt divided by aggregate income after tax for all families in the population.
Source: "The Wealth and Debt of Danish families": Monetary Review, 2012 2th Quarter – Part 2.
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish households17
ANALYTICAL RESULTS:
Wealth and debt goes hand-in-hand
Distribution of assets across gross debt intervals, 2010
Total assets excl. Pension wealth
pension
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish households18
ANALYTICAL RESULTS:
Lower savings among families with deferred-amortisation loans
Median values for savings and redemption ratios, 2010
Per cent of f amily income af t er t ax
25
20
15
10
5
0
Savings in f ree Pension savings Redempt ions on Redempt ions on Tot al net savings
f unds mort gage debt ot her debt
Families w it h def erred-amort isat ion loans Families w it h loans w it h amort isat ion only
Note: The Chart shows the median value in 2010 for each stated savings and redemption ratio among homeowner families who raised mortgage debt in
the period 2003-09, whose oldest family member was under 60 years old in 2010, and who were not involved in real property transactions or raised
mortgage loans during 2010.
Source: "Danish families' Financial Robustness, Variable rates and Deferred Amortisation": Monetary Review, 2012 4th Quarter – Part 2.
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish households19
ANALYTICAL RESULTS:
Most families have robust finances …
Financial margin and LTV, 2010
The families’ current financial situation… … and after an interest-rate increase of 5 pct. point
1,000 f amilier 1,000 f amilies
450 350
400
300
350
250
300
250 200
200 150
150
100
100
50
50
0 0
Below 0 0 t o 75 75 t o 150 150 t o 250 Over 250 Below 0 0 t o 75 75 t o 150 150 t o 250 Over 250
Financial margin, kr. 1,000 Financial margin, kr. 1,000
LTV up t o 60 LTV bet w een 61 and 80 LTV bet w een 81 and 100 LTV great er t han 100 LTV up t o 60 LTV bet w een 61 and 80 LTV bet w een 81 and 100 LTV great er t han 100
Note: LTV ratios indicate the remaining debt as a percentage of the property value of the property serving as collateral for the loan. Property valuations
are the mortgage banks' valuations at end-2010. Families with loans in several properties are included once per property, whereby a family may be
included more than once in the same bar. Only families with mortgage debt are included in the Chart.
Source: ”Danish families’ Financial Robustness, Variable rates and Deferred Amortisation”: Monetary Review, 2012 4th Quarter – Part 2.
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish households20
NEXT STEPS
The National Bank of Denmark Act (1936)
• § 1. "Danmarks Nationalbank […] shall as the Central Bank of this
country […] maintain a safe and secure currency system in this country,
and facilitate and regulate the traffic of money and the extension of
credit."
• § 14a. "The Bank collects, compile and disseminates statistical
information within its competence and is allowed to use this information
when necessary in order for the Bank’s fulfilment of its tasks."
• § 14a, cont. "The Bank can request that individuals [red.] pass on
information they posses to the Bank […] if it is necessary for the Bank
to receive the information for the fulfilment of its tasks [see §1]."
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish households21
NEXT STEPS
Timeline
2012 Q4 2013 H1 2013 H2 2014-15
Agreement Consultations Reporting guidelines Initial reporting
Statistics Denmark and Danmarks Dialogue with pension funds, banks Reporting institutions receive Pension funds, banks and mortgage
Nationalbank agree to create the and mortgage banks to define reporting guidelines. banks report data for end 2012 and
database. content – both in their capacity as 2013.
Guidelines for mortgage loans
data providers and users.
should be ready by end-June and Access to anonymized micro data
Other users include empirical for pensions in autumn. for researchers.
researchers from The Ministry for
Publication of aggregated statistics.
economic affairs and the economic
model DREAM. Individual output to reporters.
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish households22
NEXT STEPS
Future dataflow
Dataflow
Danmarks Nationalbank Statistics Denmark Danish Tax
Authority
Quality check (cvr-level)
against statistics on Individual loan data from
Statistics on balance sheets Mortgage banks Mortgage banks
of Banks and Mortgage
(cpr-level)
Banks
Quality check (cvr-level) Extended reports with individual
against statistics on Individual pension data from the Income, Wealth and Socioeconomic
Pension Funds and Banks pension data from Pension Funds and
Danish Tax Authority (cpr-level) data (cpr-level)
Banks
Integration
(cpr-level)
Wealth and Debt
Wealth and Debt
(anonymised
(cpr-level)
cpr-level)
Publication of micro-based Wealth Analyses of Wealth and Debt Publication of micro-based Pension Research Services (anonymised
and Debt Statistics (anonymi-sed cpr-level) Statistics cpr-level)
Data collected under DN/DSt
Data collected under DN authority Data collected under DSt authority
authority
Micro-based wealth and debt statistics for Danish householdsYou can also read
