EMobility in Europe: Status and outlook - Fachtagung "e-mobil in niederösterreich" S. Pölten, March 4, 2015
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eMobility in Europe: Status and outlook 1. Fachtagung "e-mobil in niederösterreich" S. Pölten, March 4, 2015
Contents A. Drivers for Powertrain Electrification 3 B. Status eMobility (eMobility Index Q3/14) 9 C. Trends 2020..2025 19 This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation. It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. RBSC does not assume any responsibility for the completeness and accuracy of the statements made in this document. © Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 2
A. Drivers for
powertrain
electrification
Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 3
A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification
eMobility is driven by customer "Pull" and regulatory "Push"
Importance of xEVs 2020 and 2025
high
Driven by
Customer
pull
Need
for
xEVs
Regulatory
push
low
~2020 ~2025
Source: Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 4A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification
Europe will drive the global powertrain electrification – Long term
cost competitiveness of xEVs generates additional market pull
Regional powertrain trends (illustrative)
2015 2020 2025
Importance 75 g/km (73
94 g/km (58 PHEV platforms
mpg)
mpg)
Flexible powertrain Next gen. Li-Ion Cost
architectures 48V batteries competitive
next xEV
Importance 17 km/l (40 20 km/l (48
mpg) mpg) 2025
standards
Cost innovation xEV not yet
defined
xEV city driving Cost competitive xEV
Importance
41 mpg 54 mpg
Cost competitive xEV
Importance
13 th 5-Year-Plan
High efficient ICE xEV Customer pull Technology innovation Milestones framework
Page 5
Source: Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 5A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification
Regulatory requirements push improvements in most regions –
In Europe, NA and Japan, there is also a strong customer pull
Assessment CO2 emission/fuel consumption regulation and customer pull
Corporate CO2 emission target Fuel efficiency targets [km/l] CAFE2) [mpg or g/mi] Potential4) corporate CO2 emission
[g/km] Additional ZEV regulation CARB targets [g/km]
≙ 15.1 ≙ 20.3 ≙ 286 ≙ 213 ≙ 163 Additional potential fleet xEV target
km/l km/l g/mi g/mi g/mi share
-26% 178
-43% 169
154 -44%
127 -41% 132
114 116
941) 101 95
755)
t.d.b.
2013 >2021 2025 2013 2020 2025 2013 2020 2025 2013 2020 2025
Customer pull
Customer will only buy cars with most efficient/lowest Customer do not consider CO2 emissions/consumption
CO2 emission technology (medium term) in purchase decision (medium term)
1) Average weight depended CO2 emission target 2) EPA & NHTSA estimates of g/mi for passenger cars and light trucks combined, driving cycle compensated 3) End customer pull
for low CO2 emission/low fuel consumption powertrain and/or alternative powertrains 4) No decision made yet 5) 68-78 g/km under discussion
Source: FAW; EPA, EU; Inovar; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 6A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification
We expect costs of typical PHEV cells to be in a range of 130..150
USD/kWh in 2020
Impact of material improvements on cell prices1) – Typical 96 Wh PHEV cell [USD/cell]
~250 130..150
USD/kWh USD/kWh
• Gen 2a: NCM111 …523,
-18% -22%
23.3
Anode 100% Graphite
• GEN 2b: Ni NCM622 … 811,
Anode 100%Graphite/HC
• GEN 3a: Ni NCM622 .. 811
Anode Graphite + 5..10%
Silicon
• GEN 3b: HE-NCM, high voltage
spinel silicon anode
GEN 2A New materials, GEN 2B Increased GEN 3a
cell cost scale effects energy density
2015
1) Cost for Auto. customers 2) Based on a high-density 50-50 mixture of NCM 111 and LiNiO2
Source: Roland Berger LiB Market Model Q1/14 Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 7A Drivers for Powertrain Electrification
Costs of TESLA's 18650 cell manufactured in the announced "Giga-
factory" could be already at 120$/kWh, but higher integration costs
TESLA Gigafactory process flow (until cell) and estimated costs per kWh [$]
Other materials (Al, Cu, steel, ..): Depreciation & interest
25-32$ (5 bn$, 7yrs, 10-15%): 35-42$
Raw Steel/
Aluminum
Cathode
Manufacturing Cathode Can & Cap
Precursor: Electrode 35 GWh
12-15$ Aluminum Foil
Raw Materials
per year (cells)
Separator
Polymers Manufacturing
Separator Winding Cell Costs to
Ass-
etc.: 5-7$ emby OEM:
Anode 120$..130$
Manufacturing Anode
Electrode Electrolyte
Precursor: Copper Foil Manufacturing
3-5$
Employees (total: ~6500, there-of Energy: LiPF6 etc.: EBT of operators
assumed for pack: 500, 70-90k$ p.a.): 120..140 kWh 8-10$ (8-10%):
12-15$ (0,03$): ~4$ 10$
Source: TESLA, Roland Berger LiB market modell Q1/2014; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 8B. Status eMobility
(eMobility Index Q3/14)
Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 9B Status eMobility
Technology levels are relatively stable and few new models are being
launched (except in China)
Value for money of market-ready BEVs and PHEVs
EV value for money Country
> Stable model policy with tried-and-tested
Low vehicle models
Good
China > Very good value for money
France Japan > Increased technical revisions of existing
models (esp. battery)
Avg. sale price [EUR]
> High-priced vehicles very important
> Continuing trend toward electrification
Moderate (PHEVs) in upper segments
Korea > Increasing number of expensive vehicle models
> Great volatility in model range
> Slight improvement on technological level,
esp. due to joint ventures
USA
Poor Germany > Renault Twizy continues to lose importance
High in model mix
> Renault Zoe Z.E. is dominant model
0 100 200 300 400 500
> Kia Soul and Kia Ray still the only Korean
Avg. technology level [points] EV models
Note: Italian OEMs have no mass-produced EV/PHEV models
Source: fka; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 10B Status eMobility
R&D subsidies are declining strongly in most automotive nations
State R&D funding for e-mobility [EUR m], [% of GDP]
Country [EUR m] [% of GDP]1)
7,684 0.114
47 0.000
1,025 0.041
925 0.046
105 0.012
0 0.000
171 0.004
1) Subsidies expressed as a share of current GDP (2013??)
Source: fka; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 11B Status eMobility
The US leads the way in vehicle production – Almost all markets
have seen increased volume numbers
Projected production of EVs and PHEVs through 2017
Country Domestic production of EVs/PHEVs ['000 units] Top 3 models in each country
441 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Nissan Leaf EV,
Toyota Prius PHEV
545 Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, Chevrolet Volt PHEV
292 BMW i3, VW Passat PHEV,
Porsche Panamera PHEV
307 BYD Qin, Kandi KD, Chery QQEV
250 Renault ZOE Z.E., smart fortwo ED,
Renault Kangoo Z.E.
11 Kia Soul EV, Kia Ray EV, Chevrolet Spark EV
Note: No significant EV/PHEV production is expected in Italy
Source: fka; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 12B Status eMobility
in LiB, Japan remains in pole position and China moves into third
place – Samsung has made strong gains with European OEMs
Cell manufacturers and production, by country, through 2017
Projected global market share, 20171) Domestic cell production, 2013-2017 [MWh]
Total: USD 4.4 bn
2)
> Leading cell producer
26% 19.200 > Panasonic is the leader in consumer cells
> Primarily LG Chem and Samsung
22% 8.900 > SK Innovation counted as part of Korean footprint
> Primarily BYD and other "local for local" players
18% 4.700
> Still primarily A123 and Japanese manufacturers
17% 4.600 with local production (AESC)
> Primarily LiTec
6% 100
0 > No significant cell production
5%
0 > No significant cell production
1%
1) 2017 market value in USD calculated as follows: USD 490/kWh for PHEVs and USD 350/kWh for EVs 2) Including Primearth's market share
Source: Roland Berger LiB market model as of Q1 2015 Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 13B Status eMobility
China has doubled its sales of EVs compared to the last period
Sales figures and market share of EVs/PHEVs, Q1 2014 to Q4 2014
Country Sales of EVs/PHEVs [units] EV/PHEV share of total sales [%]
119,710 0.73
33,185 0.71
52,944 0.23
16,207 0.90
13,049 0.43
856 0.05
1,648 0.12
Source: fka; Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 14C. Trends 2020..2025
Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 15C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27 BACKUP
Until 2021, OEMs need to reduce their CO2 emissions by 25-30% –
major driver for electrification
1) 2)
-29% -27% -29% -30% -29%
-29%
132 138 138 143 133
129
94 101 98 100 92 95
2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020
3)
-30% -30% -24% -25% -25% -27%
133 131 122 124 121 120
93 92 93 93 91 88
2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020 2012 2020
1) Incl. Mini, Rolls-Royce 2) Incl. Smart 3) Incl. Alfa Romeo, Lancia
Source: Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 16C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27
In Europe, xEV will remain niche until 2020 – Stronger electrification
will be required to meet 75 g targets in 2025
Summary push/pull factors xEVs and xEV share [%] – EU
Today (2013) Mid-term (2020) Long-term (2025)
Push 130 g CO2 emission 95 g CO2 emission regulation 75 g CO2 emission
factors regulation for entire fleet 2015 in 2021 – requires some regulation2) – requires
xEVs for compliance reasons significant xEV share for
compliance
Pull TCO disadvantage TCO disadvantage TCO advantage, but
factors Very few first adopters Lack of significant subsidies dependent on infrastructure
Lack of subsidies and other or benefits development
benefits Subsidies and benefits will
become possible to
accelerate xEVs
EV+PHEV xEV xEV
share1)C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27
All OEMs in Europe focus on ICE optimization and road load re-
duction to comply with 95 g target, but minor xEV is also required
Mid-term emission reduction level of selected OEMs
Volume OEMs – Premium OEMs – Assumptions
CO2 emission reduction [g/km] CO2 emission reduction [g/km] Assessment is based on potential
CO2 emission reduction in each car
129 136 model of an OEM
ICE optimization is most cost
20
26 efficient lever for CO2 emission
8
reduction, followed by road load
106
7 95 2 reduction, xEV least efficient cost
1 92 8 98
3 benefit ratio
Assumed changes in fleet structure
– Limited shift towards smaller
123 143 vehicle segments
– No change in average vehicle
19 21
power
9
– No active shift in fuel shares in
111
7 95
2 a model line
2 93 10 101
2 Credits for low CO2 emitting
vehicles are not considered
2012 ICE RL Fleet CO2 Gap 2021 2012 ICE RL Fleet CO2 Gap for 2021
Potential of ICE almost 100%
emis- for target emis- xEV1) target
sion xEV1) sion leveraged by 2020– Further
reduction must come from xEVs
1) Full hybrids; PHEVs/REEVs; EVs ICE = Engine and other powertrain improvement,
RL = Road load reduction (weight reduction, tires, aero), Fleet – Change in vehicle segment shares
Source: Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 18C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27
In the long-term, PHEVs and EVs used for short-range trips will
become TCO competitive in Europe as battery costs decline
TCO comparison 2025 EU1) – Example C-segment car
USD/100 mi Comments
37.7 With decreasing battery costs,
38 210 mi
(340 km) PHEVs and EVs are expected to
36 range become TCO competitive by 2025
34 Availability of infrastructure and
32 vehicle usage behavior are
potential limiting factors to larger
30
27.6 penetration of PHEVs/EVs
28 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.6 Strong market pull expected if
30% e-drive
26 infrastructure becomes available
24 80% e-drive 90 mi (150 and customers adapt vehicle
23.7 km) range usage behavior to PHEV/EV
22 23.3
capabilities (short-range usage of
EVs and long-range usage of
0 PHEVs)
Gasoline Diesel Gasoline Diesel PHEV EV
micro micro
hybrid hybrid
1) Only considering powertrain and fuel/consumption costs; Assumptions: 150,000 km/10 years lifetime, 15,000 km mileage p.a. (11,000 km short and 20 x 200 km long, consumption
Page 19
acc. to today's NEDC, fuel cost 1.7 EUR/l, energy cost 0.25 EUR/kWh
Source: Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 19C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27
Additionally, as small diesel engines lose in cost-benefit ratio
compared to small gasoline hybrids, Diesel will get under pressure
Example CO2 emission and cost EU B-segment vehicle (~90 hp)
CO2 [g/km] (≙ fuel consumption) Comments
105 Increasing penetration of plug-
in gasoline hybrids expected,
once TCO advantage exists
100 Base EU5 and infrastructure is available
EU6/Efficiency 2015 Gasoline hybrids are more cost
competitive as mileage driven
95
by ICE is not sufficient to
payback higher cost of diesel
48V hybrid Base EU5 LNT, EGR engine
90
EU6
Gasoline hybrids offer similar
Efficiency 2015
driving experience as diesel
85 engines (instant torque)
Efficiency 2021 Cost EU6
Efficiency 2021
80 Diesel volumes under
1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 pressure in long-term
Cost [EUR]
Gasoline Diesel
Page 20
Source: Roland Berger Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 20C Trends 2020..2025 – EU27
As a result, the xEV share in all major markets is expected to grow
significantly after 2020, whereas CNG remains niche
Propulsion share 2020 and 20251) [% of sales]
100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2% 2% 4% 2% 3% 2% 5%
9% 31% 6% 22% 42% 6%
7%
10% 24% 4% 32%
8% 1%
2%
1% 20%
20%
25% 27%
0% 39%
1)
1%
5% 93%
89% 90% 2%
78%
64% 0% 67%
75% 58%
2020e 2025e 2020 2025e 2020 2025e 2020 2025e
EV HEV/PHEV/REEV CNG Diesel/gas engines
1) Optimistic scenario: globally strict CO2 emissions/fuel consumption regulation; high energy cost; high cost reduction HV batteries; high investments in recharging infrastructure
Source: Roland Berger simulation Status-eMobility-2015-03-04.pptx 21Contact and further information: Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart Senior Partner Telefon: +49 (160) 7447421 E-Mail: Wolfgang.Bernhart@rolandberger.com
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