ESO Operational Transparency Forum - 21 April 2021 - Slido code #OTF
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Slido code #OTF
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ESO Operational
Transparency Forum
21 April 2021
Introduction | Slido code #OTF Following your feedback, we are continuing to use Slido and Microsoft Teams. Please visit www.sli.do and enter the code #OTF to ask questions & provide us with post event feedback. We will answer as many questions as possible at the end of the session. We may have to take away some questions and provide feedback from our expert colleagues in these areas during a future forum. You can also ask questions using the normal chat function. These slides, event recordings and further information about the webinars can be found at the following location: https://data.nationalgrideso.com/plans-reports-analysis/covid-19-preparedness-materials Key topics for this week: Questions from last week Business continuity Response reform update Demand review and outlook Costs for last week Constraints 12 April view from the control room
Slido code #OTF Questions from last week Q: Have asked this before but not sure of progress - please can you publish a definitive list of every unit you operationally meter and hence are used to construct your view of Initial Demand Outturn (INDO) A: We will come to a future forum to explain how the INDO value is created and the operational metering data that feeds into this. Q: Please could you discuss the 2020/21 BSUoS Under-recovery and how this cost is due to be recovered? A: Please see the information about BSUoS under-recovery at the following link: https://subscribers.nationalgrid.co.uk/t/d- FAB83EC85103387C2540EF23F30FEDED We hosted a webinar on Monday to discuss this matter in more detail. A recording of the session will be available at the following link: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/industry-information/charging/balancing-services-use-system-bsuos-charges Q: Recent market conditions saw lots of BM stor being used heavily, nBM was not however, why the discriminatory behaviour? A: We strive to take actions in price order and would not seek to take BM over non-BM for any other reason.
Slido code #OTF Questions from last week Q: The monthly frequency market information pack has different DC volume procurement levels than the recent newsletter update, could we have some clarification please? A: In last month’s newsletter, we communicated that the volume cap of 500MW for DC Low Frequency services had been lifted after 19 March. The wording in our previous update implied that the cap was now set at 700MW. For clarification, this is not the case. Up-to-date DC Low Frequency requirements are published monthly in our Market Information Reports. Q: It seems to be the recent event that caused the loss of embedded generation due to vector shift loss. Is this the case? A: In recent transmission faults we have seen loss of embedded generation and also transmission connected generators that have also tripped or deloaded. ESO is investigating the causes for the deloaded or tripped generation - the embedded generation losses could have been triggered by operation of G59 relays (vector shift or RoCoF) and investigations are ongoing. Q: Is Dynamic Containment procured across the whole national grid, or just on certain voltage grids? A: We procure frequency response across the whole country and these services are non-locational. We are exploring Grid Supply Point (GSP) as a parameter for new response services and we will be continuing to engage with industry on the topic.
Slido code #OTF
Protecting Critical Staff to maintain Critical Operations
Enhanced Office access for
shift rota Lockdown essential reasons
Operational
areas Awareness of potential for
restricted & Reviewing lessons learnt local lockdowns/spikes in
critical staff & building into BAU infection
protected Industry
engagement
Majority of Gradual
employees WFH reoccupation
Pandemic Plans
Activated
Restrictions to
Pre-Pandemic operational areas
relaxed
Post-
Identify & respond to system operability challenges
PandemicSlido code #OTF Response Reform Update We are running a Response Reform webinar on 29 April 10.30-11.30, covering: • The process improvements we are making to Dynamic Containment procurement, enabling more granular procurement and pay-as-clear auctions, which we expect to be launching in the summer. • The Enduring Auction Capability, which is set to deliver in 2022. This will be one of the core tools facilitating our transition in closer to real-time markets. • Dynamic Containment service development, e.g. high frequency, which we intend to launch later this year. • The two other new response services, Dynamic Moderation (DM) and Dynamic Regulation (DR). Please sign up using the link. If you would like to discuss any of the above in more detail, please contact us at box.futureofbalancingservices@nationalgrideso.com
Demand | Latest demand suppression assessment Estimated overall demand drop over 7 days up to 4.8% compared to pre-COVID
Demand | Latest demand suppression assessment Estimated overall demand drop over 7 days up to 4.8% compared to pre-COVID
Demand | Last 7 days outturn
FORECAST (Wed 14 Apr) OUTTURN
National National
Forecasting Dist. wind Dist. PV Dist. wind Dist. PV
Date Demand Demand
Point (GW) (GW) (GW) (GW)
(GW) (GW)
14 Apr Afternoon Min 29.7 0.5 4.8 30.9 0.5 4.5
15 Apr Overnight Min 24.0 0.5 0.0 24.6 0.5 0.0
15 Apr Afternoon Min 29.0 0.9 5.7 29.4 0.8 5.9
16 Apr Overnight Min 23.6 0.7 0.0 25.0 0.7 0.0
16 Apr Afternoon Min 27.6 0.8 7.1 28.2 0.8 5.4
17 Apr Overnight Min 23.0 0.5 0.0 24.0 0.4 0.0
17 Apr Afternoon Min 21.3 1.0 6.7 20.9 0.8 8.2
18 Apr Overnight Min 21.2 0.8 0.0 22.4 0.8 0.0
18 Apr Afternoon Min 22.4 1.0 6.4 22.5 0.8 8.0
19 Apr Overnight Min 21.6 0.7 0.0 22.6 0.5 0.0
19 Apr Afternoon Min 29.5 1.1 6.2 25.0 0.9 8.1
20 Apr Overnight Min 22.5 0.8 0.0 23.1 0.3 0.0
20 Apr Afternoon Min 29.5 1.0 5.5 27.0 0.5 6.7Demand | Week Ahead
FORECAST (Wed 21 Apr)
National
Forecasting Dist. wind Dist. PV
Date Demand
Point (GW) (GW)
(GW)
21 Apr Afternoon Min 27.2 1.6 5.7
22 Apr Overnight Min 22.4 1.0 0.0
22 Apr Afternoon Min 25.1 0.8 8.0
23 Apr Overnight Min 22.3 0.6 0.0
23 Apr Afternoon Min 25.4 0.8 8.7
24 Apr Overnight Min 21.0 0.7 0.0
24 Apr Afternoon Min 22.1 1.0 6.6
25 Apr Overnight Min 19.9 0.7 0.0
25 Apr Afternoon Min 23.0 0.8 6.1
26 Apr Overnight Min 20.8 0.7 0.0
26 Apr Afternoon Min 28.2 1.3 5.4
27 Apr Overnight Min 21.6 1.1 0.0
27 Apr Afternoon Min 28.9 1.5 5.1Demand | Funeral of HRH Prince Philip
Minute by minute forecast for
HRH Prince Phillip Funeral : Saturday 17th April 2021
Revised 17th April 2021 @ 13:20
28000
27500
27000
26500
26000
25500
Demand (MW)
25000
24500
24000
23500
23000
22500
22000
21500
21000
20500
20000
13:00
15:00
16:00
18:00
12:00
14:00
17:00
Time (BST)Demand | Funeral of HRH Prince Philip
Minute by minute forecast for
HRH Prince Phillip Funeral : Saturday 17th April 2021
Revised 17th April 2021 @ 13:20
28000
27500
27000
26500
26000
25500
Demand (MW)
25000
24500
24000
23500
23000
22500
22000
21500
21000
20500
20000
13:00
15:00
16:00
18:00
12:00
14:00
17:00
Time (BST)Slido code #OTF ESO Actions | Tuesday 13 April Peak
Slido code #OTF ESO Actions | Saturday 17 April Minimum
Slido code #OTF Transparency | 12 to 18 April Costs *Includes operating reserve, STOR, fast reserve, other reserve, negative reserve Note: AS costs are estimated at this timescale so small discrepancies may be observed
Slido code #OTF Transparency | 12 to 18 April Constraints The spend to manage thermal constraint on 12 April was Constrained Sterilised Headroom The small volume of bids taken on a generator to resolve the constraint in the Humber region meant headroom on that particular generator was inaccessible. Where an action is taken to completely replace the sterilised operational margin by taking offers on a generator outside the constraint group, all the costs are assigned to constraint costs. However, these are energy flagged actions. The cost of replacing the sterilised operational margin on a tight margin system was high due to high market prices. The vast majority of the cost captured as a constraint cost would have been present as a Reserve cost had the constraint not been active.
Slido code #OTF
Transparency | Forward Look
B2
Scotland 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May 24-May 31-May 7-Jun 14-Jun
B6 (SCOTEX)
B4
B4 (SSE SP2)
England and Wales 19-Apr 26-Apr 3-May 10-May 17-May
B6
B7 (SHARN3)
(GM SNOW) B7
LE1 (SEIMP)
GMSNOW
Long term view12,000
11,000 Slido code #OTF
12/04/21: View from the Control Room 10,000
9,000
Synopsis 8,000
7,000
6,000
• Low wind day; c 1GW Transmission connected 5,000
wind forecast for 4B (20:45) 4,000
3,000
• Reliance on thermal plant, many self dispatched
2,000
1,000
3x coal units self dispatched, 1x coal unit warmed. 0
5:00
8:00
12:00
17:00
21:00
12-APR-2021
13-APR-2021Slido code #OTF
12/04/21: View from the Control Room
Synopsis
• Low wind day; c 1GW Transmission connected
wind forecast for 4B (20:45)
• Reliance on thermal plant, many self dispatched
3x coal units self dispatched, 1x coal unit warmed.
• Plant for Margin held as delays from morning.
• Continual price and PN changes;
some units previously self dispatched for 4B peak
+
PN
removed PNs
_Slido code #OTF
12/04/21: View from the Control Room
?
Synopsis
• Low wind day; c 1GW Transmission connected
wind forecast for 4B (20:45)
• Reliance on thermal plant, many self dispatched
3x coal units self dispatched, 1x coal unit warmed.
• Plant for Margin held as delays from morning.
• Continual price and PN changes;
some units previously self dispatched for 4B peak
removed PNs
• Significant Demand Uncertainty
• First working day of release of lock downSlido code #OTF
12/04/21: View from the Control Room
Demand Uncertainty
37500
3C (17:40) 4A (20:00) 4B (20:45)
37000
36500
36000
MW
35500
35000
34500
34000
33500
12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Forecast time stamp, x hrs ahead of Cardinal Point TIme
Modelled Forecast at x hrs ahead of CP Outturn Final SOPSlido code #OTF
12/04/21: View from the Control Room
A Decision Making Snapshot
Unit MEL Price
£/MWh
1700
ADAM-2 445 1800
BETH-1 725 1800
CARL-3 354 1815
DAWN-1 348 1800
ERIC-1 690 1850
Seeking to remove up to 500MW ….
Highest Price unit?.... But mindful of capacities...Slido code #OTF
12/04/21: View from the Control Room
A Decision Making Snapshot
Unit SEL MEL Price
£/MWh
1700 1730 1800 1830 1900
ADAM-2 220 445 1800 1695 1695 1695 1695
BETH-1 350 725 1800 1700 1600 1500 1500
CARL-3 230 354 1815 1743 1589 320 320
DAWN-1 170 348 1800 1700 1650 135 135
ERIC-1 410 690 1850 1750 1750 1750 1500
Seeking to remove up to 500MW ….
Next highest price unit?... But lost opportunity?... Low SEL?... Future Prices?...Slido code #OTF
12/04/21: View from the Control Room
A Decision Making Snapshot
Unit SEL MEL MZT Price
£/MWh
1700 1730 1800 1830 1900
ADAM-2 220 445 180 1800 1695 1695 1695 1695
BETH-1 350 725 360 1800 1700 1600 1500 1500
CARL-3 230 354 360 1815 1743 1589 320 320
DAWN-1 170 348 330 1800 1700 1650 135 135
ERIC-1 410 690 360 1850 1750 1750 1750 1500
Seeking to remove up to 500MW ….
Consider Flexibility….Slido code #OTF
12/04/21: View from the Control Room
A Decision Making Snapshot
Unit SEL MEL MZT Price
£/MWh
1700 1730 1800 1830 1900
ADAM-2 220 445 180 1800 1695 1695 1695 1695
BETH-1 350 725 360 1800 1700 1600 1500 1500
CARL-3 230 354 360 1815 1743 1589 320 320
DAWN-1 170 348 330 1800 1700 1650 135 135
ERIC-1 410 690 360 1850 1750 1750 1750 1500
Seeking to remove up to 500MW ….
Plan revised...Slido code #OTF
12/04/21: View from the Control Room
A Decision Making Snapshot
Unit SEL MEL MZT Price
£/MWh
1700 1730 1800 1830 1900
ADAM-2 220 445 180 1800 1695 1695 1695 1695
BETH-1 350 725 360 1800 1700 1600 1500 1500
CARL-3 230 354 360 1815 1743 1589 320 320
DAWN-1 170 348 330 1800 1700 1650 135 135
ERIC-1 410 690 360 1850 1750 1750 1750 1500
Seeking to remove up to 500MW ….
Next highest
Highest
Plan Price
revised...
Consider price
unit?....
Flexibility…. Butmindful
unit?...But of capacities...Low SEL?... Future Prices?...
lost opportunity?...Slido code #OTF 12/04/21: View from the Control Room Summary • Many considerations in an uncertain environment • Conditions, notifications and prices are continually changing • Price is important, but so too are parameters in determining overall value • Access to reserves is key to managing uncertainty. • Constrained margin influences decisions • No regret decisions are attractive in an uncertain world
Slido code #OTF Q&A After the webinar, you will receive a link to a survey. We welcome feedback to understand what we are doing well and how we can improve the event ongoing. Please ask any questions via Slido (code #OTF) and we will try to answer as many as possible now. If we are unable to answer your question today, then we will take it away and answer it at a later webinar. Please continue to use your normal communication channels with ESO If you have any questions after the event, please contact the following email address: box.NC.Customer@nationalgrideso.com
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