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Euro area house price fluctuations and unconventional monetary policy surprises - Die Hochschule im Dialog
Die Hochschule im Dialog:

Euro area house price fluctuations and
unconventional monetary policy surprises

Oliver Hülsewig
Horst Rottmann

Weidener Diskussionspapiere Nr. 80, Januar 2021
Euro area house price fluctuations and
         unconventional monetary policy surprises
                    Oliver Hülsewig*              Horst Rottmann„
                                    January 7, 2021

                                         Abstract
          This paper examines the reaction of house prices in a panel of euro area
      countries to monetary policy surprises over the period 2010-2019. Using
      Jordà’s (2005) local projection method, we find that house prices rise in re-
      sponse to expansionary monetary policy shocks that can be related to un-
      conventional monetary policy measures. Thus, monetary policy should take
      into account the risk of house price fluctuations when implementing new large
      scale policy interventions.

Key words: House price fluctuations, unconventional monetary policy, local projec-
tion method
JEL Codes: E52, E58, E32, G21

  * Corresponding  author. CESifo and Munich University of Applied Sciences, Am Stadtpark 20,
D-81243 Munich, Germany. Email: 
    „ CESifo and University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden, Weiden Business School, Hetzen-
richter Weg 15, D-92637 Weiden, Germany. Email: 

                                              1
1    Introduction
Empirical research on the side-effects of loose monetary policy points to financial
instability risks. In particular, housing busts in response to a surge in house prices
due to low interest rates might be a potentially destabilizing byproduct of continuous
easy money (Jordà et al., 2015). Thus, policymakers should be mindful of such risks
when implementing expansionary measures.
    In this paper, we examine the effect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB)
monetary policy on euro area house price fluctuations over the period 2010-2019,
i.e. after the onset of the sovereign debt crisis. The period covers the introduc-
tion of numerous unconventional monetary policy measures such as sovereign bond
purchases under the Securities Market Programme (SMP) and the Asset Purchas-
ing Programme (APP), the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transaction
(OMT) Programme, as well as several long-term refinancing operations (LTROs)
with extended maturities, full allotment and reduced collateral requirements. We
use Jordà’s (2005) local projection method to analyze the reaction of house prices,
mortgage loans and mortgage lending rates to surprises in monetary policy that can
be related to unconventional measures. We refer to the shock series of Leombroni
et al. (2020), Jarociński and Karadi (2020) and Kerssenfischer (2019) to identify
monetary policy innovations. Since our sample is short we adopt panel techniques.
    Our results suggest that the ECB’s monetary policy interventions contribute to
house price fluctuations. We find that house prices rise after expansionary shocks
to monetary policy. The increase can be observed both in the core countries of
the euro area including Ireland and in the Mediterranean countries. Moreover,
in the core countries, we also observe that lending for house purchases increases
relative to nominal output in response to the shocks. Therefore, we conclude that
monetary policy should take into account the risk of price surges in the housing
market when implementing new large scale unconventional interventions, such as
the recent re-activation of the APP and the launch of the Pandemic Emergency
Purchasing Programme (PEPP) in 2020.
  Related Literature: Several studies explore the link between house prices, mort-
gage borrowing and monetary policy (Goodhart and Hofmann, 2008; Jarocinski and
Smets, 2008; Jordà et al., 2015, among many others). The findings suggest that
house prices rise after expansionary shocks to standard monetary policy that lower
mortgage lending rates by inducing short-term interest rates to decline. The surge
in house prices along with a rise in household debt heighten the risk of a financial
crisis (Mian and Sufi, 2018). Our analysis contributes to this literature by focusing
on the effect of monetary policy measures that include non-standard interventions.
    The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 sets out our
baseline model, introduces the data and discusses the shock series that we take from

                                                                                    2
the literature to identify exogenous monetary policy surprises. In Section 3, we
present our results. Section 4 concludes.

2       Methodology, data and monetary policy shocks
2.1     Baseline model
We use Jordà’s (2005) local projection method for estimating impulse responses.
The linear model is given by:

                     Xi,t+h = αi,h + θh MPt + φ0h (L)Zi,t−1 + ui,t+h                    (1)

where Xi,t+h is the variable of interest, subindex i denotes the country, MPt is an
exogenous monetary policy shock, αi,h captures country-specific fixed effects, Zi,t−1
is a vector of control variables, φh (L) is a polynomial in the lag operator and ui,t+h
denotes an error term. First, the variable of interest is the log of the real house price.1
The vector of control variables includes lags of the real house price in logs, the log of
residential investment, the mortgage lending rate and the shadow short rate, which
serves as a proxy for the stance of monetary policy. Moreover, as additional variables
of interest we use the nominal house price index relative to the index of nominal
output per capita, the outstanding volume of domestic mortgage loans relative to
nominal output and the mortgage lending rate. In these cases, the vector of control
variables includes lags of these variables, lags of residential investment relative to
nominal output and the shadow short rate. All models are estimated with a lag
length of two.2
    The response of X at time t + h to a monetary policy shock at time t is given
by the estimated coefficient θh . Thus, the impulse responses are derived by esti-
mating a series of single regressions for each horizon h = 0, 1, 2, 3...H to generate
a sequence of the θh ’s. We use the method of Driscoll and Kraay (1998) to obtain
heteroskedasticity-consistent standard errors that are robust to very general forms
of spatial and temporal correlations. We set the maximum autocorrelation lag to
H + 1.

2.2     Data and exogenous monetary policy surprises
Since the sample is short, we use panel data (Jordà et al., 2015). Our set of countries
comprises Austria, Germany, Spain, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands
    1
     We derive real house prices by deflating the index of nominal house prices with the GDP
deflator.
   2
     We check robustness by also considering higher lag orders.

                                                                                          3
and Portugal.3 The data is taken from the ECB, Eurostat and the Bank of Inter-
national Settlements, and collected on a quarterly basis covering the period from
2010Q1 to 2019Q3. Furthermore, we consider exogenous monetary policy surprises.
We refer to Leombroni et al. (2020), who identify pure risk premium shocks of mon-
etary policy communication that summarizes information about new policies, such
as asset purchases, liquidity supports, or lending and refinancing operations. Addi-
tionally, we use the shock series of Jarociński and Karadi (2020) and Kerssenfischer
(2019), who derive pure monetary policy shocks by extracting the information con-
tained in high frequency data. Table 1 summarizes the periods over which the shock
series are available. We standardize the shock series to have a mean of zero and a
                               Table 1: Shock series periods

                         Leombroni et al. (2020) 2010Q1-2019Q4
                             Kerssenfischer (2019) 2010Q1-2018Q4
                    Jarociński and Karadi (2020) 2010Q1-2016Q4

standard deviation of one. Moreover, we normalize the shocks so that they reflect a
monetary loosening.

3       Empirical results
3.1     Baseline model impulse responses
Figure 1 shows the reaction of the variables of interest to the exogenous monetary
policy shocks. The dashed lines are the estimated impulse responses. The shaded
areas reflect the 90% error band.
    We observe that the reaction of the variables to the monetary policy shocks
derived from the series of Leombroni et al. (2020), Jarociński and Karadi (2020)
and Kerssenfischer (2019) are comparatively similar. The real house price rises
after an unexpected monetary policy loosening. The average peak response is 0.6%.
The nominal house price ratio, i.e. the index of nominal house prices relative to
the index of nominal output per capita, also increases. Moreover, the volume of
domestic mortgage loans rises relative to nominal output. Thus, household debt
expands. The mortgage lending rate declines temporarily. Overall, we find that
shocks to monetary policy contribute to house price fluctuations.
    3
    We exclude Belgium due to a lack of residential investment data. Moreover, we exclude Greece
because it obtained external finance through financial aid programmes from May 2010 onwards.
External financing through capital markets did not take place, while at the same time sovereign
bond rates increased tremendously. In addition, Greek government bonds were ineligible for the
APP over the entire net asset purchase phase.

                                                                                              4
Figure 1: Baseline model impulse responses to monetary policy shocks

                                            Leombroni et al. (2020)              Kerrsenfischer (2019)          Jarocinski & Karadi (2020)
                                                                      1.0                                                                    1.0
              Real house price

                                                                                                         0.6

                                  1.0                                                                    0.4
                                                                      0.5
                                                                                                         0.2                                 0.0
                                  0.5
                                                                                                         0.0
                                                                      0.0
                                  0.0
                                                                                                                                             -1.0
                                        0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10              0   5   10

                                  1.0                                                                                                        1.0
              House price ratio

                                                                                                         0.4
                                                                      0.4
                                  0.5                                                                    0.2
                                                                                                                                             0.0
                                                                      0.2
                                                                                                         0.0
                                  0.0                                 0.0
                                                                                                         -0.2
                                                                                                                                             -1.0
                                        0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10              0   5   10
        Mortgage loans ratio

                                                                                                         2.0                                 1.0
                                  1.0                                 1.0

                                  0.5                                 0.5                                1.0
                                                                                                                                             0.0
                                  0.0                                 0.0                                0.0

                               -0.5                                   -0.5                               -1.0                                -1.0
                                        0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10              0   5   10
        Mortgage loan rate

                                                                      0.1                                0.1                                 1.0
                                  0.0
                                                                      0.0
                                                                                                         0.0
                                                                                                                                             0.0
                               -0.1
                                                                      -0.0
                                                                                                         -0.1
                               -0.2                                   -0.1                                                                   -1.0
                                        0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10              0   5   10

Notes: Impulse responses to exogenous standardized monetary policy shocks that reflect a monetary loosening. The dashed lines are
the estimated impulse responses. The shaded areas reflect the 90% error band. See the text for further explanations.

                                                                                                                                                5
Figure 2: Country groups’ impulse responses to monetary policy shocks

                                                      Core countries including Ireland
                                  Leombroni et al. (2020)              Kerrsenfischer (2019)          Jarocinski & Karadi (2020)
                                                                                                                                   1.0
Real house price

                       1.5                                  1.0
                                                                                               0.5
                       1.0
                                                            0.5
                                                                                                                                   0.5
                       0.5                                                                     0.0
                       0.0                                  0.0
                                                                                               -0.5
                       -0.5                                                                                                        0.0
                              0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10             0   5   10

                                                                                                                                   1.0
House price ratio

                       1.0                                                                     0.5
                                                            0.5
                       0.5
                                                                                               0.0                                 0.5
                                                            0.0
                       0.0
                                                                                               -0.5
                       -0.5                                 -0.5                                                                   0.0
                              0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10             0   5   10
Mortgage loans ratio

                                                            2.0                                                                    1.0
                       2.0
                                                                                               2.0

                       1.0                                  1.0
                                                                                               1.0
                                                                                                                                   0.5
                       0.0                                  0.0                                0.0

                       -1.0
                                                                                               -1.0                                0.0
                              0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10             0   5   10
Mortgage loan rate

                       0.1                                  0.1                                0.1                                 1.0

                       0.0
                                                            0.0
                                                                                               0.0                                 0.5
                       -0.1
                                                            -0.1
                       -0.2                                                                    -0.1                                0.0
                              0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10             0   5   10

                                                                                                                                     6
Fig. 2 continued

                                                                     Mediterranean countries
                                           Leombroni et al. (2020)               Kerrsenfischer (2019)          Jarocinski & Karadi (2020)
                                 1.5                                                                                                         1.0
              Real house price

                                                                       1.0                               1.0
                                 1.0                                                                     0.8
                                                                       0.5                               0.6                                 0.5
                                 0.5
                                                                                                         0.4
                                                                       0.0                               0.2
                                 0.0
                                                                                                                                             0.0
                                       0           5          10             0          5         10            0         5         10             0   5   10

                                                                                                         0.6                                 1.0
        House price ratio

                                 0.4                                   0.4
                                                                                                         0.4
                                 0.2                                   0.2
                                                                                                                                             0.5
                                                                                                         0.2
                                 0.0                                   0.0
                                                                                                         0.0
                               -0.2                                   -0.2                                                                   0.0
                                       0           5          10             0          5         10            0         5         10             0   5   10
        Mortgage loans ratio

                                                                                                         0.5                                 1.0

                                 0.0
                                                                                                         0.0
                                                                      -0.2                                                                   0.5
                               -0.5
                                                                                                         -0.5

                               -1.0                                   -0.8                                                                   0.0
                                       0           5          10             0          5         10            0         5         10             0   5   10
        Mortgage loan rate

                                 0.1                                                                                                         1.0

                                                                       0.0                               0.0
                                 0.0
                                                                                                                                             0.5
                                                                      -0.1                               -0.1
                               -0.1

                               -0.2                                   -0.2                               -0.2                                0.0
                                       0           5          10             0          5         10            0         5         10             0   5   10

Notes: See Figure 1 for explanations.

                                                                                                                                               7
3.2    Country groups
We proceed by building country groups. We distinguish between the core countries
including Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and additionally Ireland, and
the Mediterranean countries, which comprise France, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Figure 2 displays the country groups’ impulse responses to expansionary monetary
policy innovations.
    Real house prices in both country groups rise in response to the shocks. More-
over, the reaction of the nominal house price ratio across the country groups seems
to be quantitatively similar. Additionally, we observe that in the core countries, the
volume of loans for house purchases rise relative to nominal output. Hence, in these
countries, household debt increases significantly after an unexpected monetary loos-
ening. In the Mediterranean countries, by contrast, a rise in household debt relative
to nominal output cannot be observed.

4     Conclusion
We analyze how the ECB’s monetary policy measures implemented between 2010
and 2019 contributed to house price fluctuations across euro area countries. We find
that real house prices rise after expansionary shocks to monetary policy that can
be related to unconventional interventions. Moreover, nominal house prices increase
relative to nominal output per capita. In the core countries including Ireland, we
additionally observe that lending for house purchases rises relative to nominal out-
put. Thus, household debt increases. We conclude that monetary policy should take
into account the risk of price surges in the housing market when implementing new
large scale policy interventions.

References
Driscoll, J.C., Kraay, A.C., 1998. Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With
  Spatially Dependent Panel Data. The Review of Economics and Statistics 80,
  549–560.

Goodhart, C., Hofmann, B., 2008. House prices, money, credit, and the macroecon-
 omy. Oxford Review of Economic Policy 24, 180–205.

Jarocinski, M., Smets, F., 2008. House prices and the stance of monetary policy.
  Review 90, 339–366.

Jarociński, M., Karadi, P., 2020. Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises — The

                                                                                    8
Role of Information Shocks. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12,
  1–43.

Jordà, Ò., 2005. Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projec-
  tions. American Economic Review 95, 161–182.

Jordà, Ò., Schularick, M., Taylor, A.M., 2015. Betting the House. Journal of
  International Economics 96, 2–18.

Kerssenfischer, M., 2019. Information Effects of Euro Area Monetary Policy: New
  Evidence from High-Frequency Futures Data. Technical Report.

Leombroni, M., Vedolin, A., Venter, G., Whelan, P., 2020. Central Bank Commu-
  nication and the Yield Curve. Journal of Financial Economics, in press.

Mian, A., Sufi, A., 2018. Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household
 Demand Channel. Journal of Economic Perspectives 32, 31–58.

                                                                                9
Appendix
A     Data
Bank of international Settlements:

    ˆ Nominal house prices, index 2010 = 100
      Q:XX:N:628

Eurostat:

    ˆ Gross domestic product at market prices: current prices, million euro
      Seasonally and calendar adjusted data

    ˆ Gross domestic product at market prices: current prices, euro per capita
      Unadjusted data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data)

    ˆ Gross fixed capital formation, dwellings, current prices, million euro
      Seasonally and calendar adjusted data

ECB Statistical data Warehouse:

    ˆ Volume of domestic mortgage loans: outstanding amounts, end of period
      BSI.M.XX.N.A.A22.A.1.U6.2250.Z01.E
      Quarterly data is derived by using end of monthly data

    ˆ Domestic mortgage lending rate
      MIR.M.XX.B.A2C.A.R.A.2250.EUR.N
      Quarterly data is derived by calculating monthly averages

In the series’ codes, XX is a placeholder for the country acronym: Austria (AT), Bel-
gium (BE), Germany (DE), Spain (ES), Finland (FI), France (FR), Ireland (IR),
Italy (IT), Portugal (PT) and the Netherlands, respectively. Non-seasonally ad-
justed data is seasonally adjusted by means of the IRIS Macroeconomic Modeling
Toolbox.
Shadow short rate:

    ˆ Leo Krippner’s shadow short rate is taken from: https://www.ljkmfa.com/.

                                                                                  10
Monetary policy shock series:

     ˆ Leombroni et al. (2020):
       https://sites.google.com/site/gyuriventer/

     ˆ Jarociński and Karadi (2020):
       https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20180090

     ˆ Kerssenfischer (2019):
       https://sites.google.com/site/markkerssenfischer.

Quarterly shock series are calculated by means of the sum over the respective
months.

B       Additional Figures
B.1                     Real house prices deflated by HCPI

        Figure 3: Reaction of real house prices to exogenous monetary policy shocks

                                           Leombroni et al. (2020)              Kerrsenfischer (2019)          Jarocinski & Karadi (2020)
                                                                                                                                            1.0
              Real house price

                                                                     0.6
                                 1.0                                                                    0.4
                                                                     0.4
                                                                                                        0.2                                 0.0
                                 0.5                                 0.2
                                                                     0.0                                0.0
                                 0.0
                                                                                                                                            -1.0
                                       0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10              0   5   10

Notes: Impulse
           1.0 responses to exogenous standardized monetary policy shocks that reflect a1.0
                                                 1.0                                     monetary loosening. Real house prices1.0
                                                                                                                               are
        House price ratio

taken from the Bank of International Settlements and are calculated by using the harmonized consumer price index. All models are
estimated with a lag order of two. The dashed lines are the estimated impulse responses. The shaded areas reflect the 90% error
band.                            0.0                                 0.0                                0.0                                 0.0

                               -1.0                                  -1.0                               -1.0                                -1.0
                                       0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10              0   5   10
        Mortgage loans ratio

                                 1.0                                 1.0                                1.0                                 1.0

                                 0.0                                 0.0                                0.0                                 0.0

                               -1.0                                  -1.0                               -1.0                                -1.0
                                       0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10              0   5   10
        Mortgage loan rate

                                 1.0                                 1.0                                1.0                                 1.0

                                 0.0                                 0.0                                0.0                                 0.0

                               -1.0                                  -1.0                               -1.0                                -1.0
                                       0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10              0   5   10

                                                                                                                                             11
B.2                     Higher lag order

                                 Figure 4: Baseline model impulse responses to monetary policy shocks

                                           Leombroni et al. (2020)              Kerrsenfischer (2019)          Jarocinski & Karadi (2020)
                                                                                                                                             1.0
              Real house price

                                 1.0
                                                                     0.5                                0.5

                                 0.5                                                                                                         0.0
                                                                     0.0                                0.0

                                 0.0
                                                                     -0.5                               -0.5                                 -1.0
                                       0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10               0   5   10

                                                                     0.4                                                                     1.0
        House price ratio

                                                                                                        0.2
                                 0.4
                                                                     0.2
                                                                                                        0.0
                                 0.2                                                                                                         0.0
                                                                     0.0                                -0.2
                                 0.0
                                                                     -0.2                               -0.4
                               -0.2
                                                                                                                                             -1.0
                                       0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10               0   5   10
        Mortgage loans ratio

                                 1.0                                                                    2.0                                  1.0
                                                                     1.0
                                                                                                        1.0
                                 0.0                                 0.5                                                                     0.0
                                                                                                        0.0
                                                                     0.0

                               -1.0                                                                     -1.0                                 -1.0
                                       0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10               0   5   10
        Mortgage loan rate

                                                                     0.1                                0.1                                  1.0

                                 0.0
                                                                     0.0                                0.0
                                                                                                                                             0.0
                               -0.1
                                                                     -0.1                               -0.1
                               -0.1                                                                                                          -1.0
                                       0           5          10            0          5         10            0         5         10               0   5   10

Notes: Impulse responses to exogenous standardized monetary policy shocks that reflect a monetary loosening.                        All models are
estimated with a lag order of four. The dashed lines are the estimated impulse responses. The shaded areas reflect the 90% error
band.

                                                                                                                                              12
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35   Is there a Friday the 13th effect in emerging Asian stock markets?
     von Benjamin R. Auer und Horst Rottmann

36   Fiscal Policy During Business Cycles in Developing Countries: The Case of Africa
     von Willi Leibfritz und Horst Rottmann

37   MONEY IN MODERN MACRO MODELS: A review of the arguments
     von Markus A. Schmidt und Franz Seitz

38   Wie erzielen Unternehmen herausragende Serviceleistungen mit höheren Gewinnen?
     von Johann Strassl und Günter Schicker

39   Let’s Blame Germany for its Current Account Surplus!?
     von Thomas Jost

40   Geldpolitik und Behavioural Finance
     von Franz Seitz

41   Rechtliche Überlegungen zu den Euro-Rettungsschirmprogrammen und den
     jüngsten geldpolitischen Maßnahmen der EZB
     von Ralph Hirdina

42   DO UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS AND EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION INFLUENCE
     SUICIDE MORTALITY? AN INTERNATIONAL PANEL DATA ANALYSIS
     von Horst Rottmann
43   Die neuen europäischen Regeln zur Sanierung und Abwicklung von Kreditinstituten:
     Ordnungspolitisch und rechtlich angreifbar?
     von Ralph Hirdina

44   Vermögensumverteilung in der Eurozone durch die EZB ohne rechtliche Legitimation?
     von Ralph Hirdina

45   Die Haftung des Steuerzahlers für etwaige Verluste der EZB auf dem rechtlichen Prüfstand
     von Ralph Hirdina

46   Die Frage nach dem Verhältnis von Nachhaltigkeit und Ökonomie
     von Alexander Herzner

47   Giving ideas a chance - systematic development of services in manufacturing industry
     von Johann Strassl, Günter Schicker und Christian Grasser

48   Risikoorientierte Kundenbewertung: Eine Fallstudie
     von Thorsten Hock

49   Rechtliche Überlegungen zur Position der Sparer und institutionellen Anleger mit Blick auf
     die Niedrigzins- bzw. Negativzinspolitik der Europäischen Zentralbank
     von Ralph Hirdina

50   Determinanten des Studienerfolgs: Eine empirische Untersuchung für die Studiengänge
     Maschinenbau, Medienproduktion und -technik sowie Umwelttechnik
     von Bernd Rager und Horst Rottmann

51   Cash Holdings in Germany and the Demand for "German" Banknotes:
     What role for cashless payments
     von Nikolaus Bartzsch und Franz Seitz

52   Europäische Union und Euro – Wie geht es weiter? – Rechtliche Überlegungen
     von Ralph Hirdina

53   A Call for Action – Warum sich das professionelle Management des Service Portfolios in
     der Industrie auszahlt
     von Günter Schicker und Johann Strassl

54   Der Studienerfolg an der OTH Amberg-Weiden – Eine empirische Analyse der
     Studiengänge Maschinenbau, Medienproduktion und Medientechnik sowie
     Umwelttechnik
     von Bernd Rager und Horst Rottmann

55   Die Bewertung von Aktienanleihen mit Barriere – Eine Fallstudie für die Easy-
     Aktienanleihe der Deutschen Bank
     von Maurice Hofmann und Horst Rottmann

56   Studie: Die Generation Y und deren organisatorische Implikationen
     von Helmut Klein
57   Die gesetzliche Einschränkung von Bargeldzahlungen und die Abschaffung von Bargeld
     auf dem rechtlichen Prüfstand
     von Ralph Hirdina

58   Besser ohne Bargeld? Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wohlfahrtsverluste der Bargeldabschaffung
     von Gerhard Rösl, Franz Seitz, Karl-Heinz Tödter

59   Nowcasting des deutschen BIP
     von Jens Doll, Beatrice Rosenthal, Jonas Volkenand, Sandra Hamella

60   Herausforderungen und Erfolgsfaktoren bei der Einführung Cloud-basierter
     Unternehmenssoftware – Erfahrungen aus der Praxis
     von Thomas Dobat, Stefanie Hertel, Wolfgang Renninger

61   Global Recessions and Booms: What do Probit models tell us?
     von Ursel Baumann, Ramón Gómez Salvador, Franz Seitz

62   Feste Zinsbindung versus kurzfristig variable Zinskonditionen in Deutschland
     von Jörg Clostermann und Franz Seitz

63   Deferred-Compensation-Modelle: Ersatz für eine konventionelle betriebliche
     Altersversorgung nach dem Betriebsrentengesetz?
     von Thomas Dommermuth und Thomas Schiller

64   Have capital market anomalies worldwide attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity
     and trading activity?
     von Benjamin R. Auer und Horst Rottmann

65   Vorschläge des französischen Staatspräsidenten Emmanuel Macron zur Reform der
     Europäischen Union
     von Ralph Hirdina

66   Von der Troika zu einem Europäischen Währungsfonds – Welche Aufgaben und Grenzen
     sollte ein Europäischer Währungsfonds nach den Erfahrungen mit der Troika haben?
     von Thomas Jost

67   Does Microfinance have an impact on borrower’s consumption patterns and women’s
     empowerment?
     von Charlotte H. Feldhoff, Yi Liu und Patricia R. Feldhoff

68   Uncertainty in the Black-Litterman Model - A Practical Note
     von Adrian Fuhrer und Thorsten Hock

69   Produktportfolio-Management im Zeitalter der Digitalisierung
     von Günter Schicker und Johann Strassl

70   Evaluation eines Inverted Classroom Konzepts in der makroökonomischen Lehre
     von Horst Rottmann und Christoph Voit

71   Immobilienkredite in Deutschland und der Schweiz: Die Rolle von Zinsen und Zinsbindung
     von Jörg Clostermann und Franz Seitz
72   Intelligente Verpackungen
     von Stephanie Abels-Schlosser

73   Digitale Strategien entwickeln – von der Idee zur Roadmap
     von Johann Strassl und Günter Schicker

74   Derivate im Zinsmanagement: Eine Analyse der Hedging-Qualität von Bund Future
     Kontrakten und deren Einsatzmöglichkeiten in Theorie und Praxis
     von Christoph Wontke und Franz Seitz

75   Steigerung der Kundenzufriedenheit durch Gestaltung von Artikeldetailseiten
     am Beispiel von WITT WEIDEN
     von Laura Graser und Marco Nirschl

76   Werkvertragsarbeitnehmerinnen und -arbeitnehmer in der Fleischindustrie
     von André Schulte und Ágnes Wörster

77   How to avoid fracture of the locking screw in modular revision arthroplasty of the hip
     using the MRP Titan Revision System
     von Theresa Semmelmann, Alexander Schuh, Horst Rottmann, Reinhard Schröder,
     Christopher Fleischmann

78   SARS-Cov-2 und Bargeld: Wie ein Virus die weltweite Bargeldnachfrage fördert
     von Gerhard Rösl und Franz Seitz

79   Monte-Carlo-Evaluation von Instrumentenvariablenschätzern
     von Benjamin R. Auer und Horst Rottmann

80   Euro area house price fluctuations and unconventional monetary policy surprises
     von Oliver Hülsewig und Horst Rottmann
Die Weidener Diskussionspapiere erscheinen in unregelmäßigen
  Abständen und sollen Erkenntnisse aus Forschung und Wissenschaft
  an der Hochschule in Weiden insbesondere zu volks- und betriebs-
  wirtschaftlichen Themen an Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft vermitteln
  und den fachlichen Dialog fördern.
  Herausgeber:
  Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule (OTH) Amberg-Weiden
  Prof. Dr. Horst Rottmann und Prof. Dr. Franz Seitz
  Fakultät Betriebswirtschaft

  Presserechtliche Verantwortung:
  Sonja Wiesel, Hochschulkommunikation und Öffentlichkeitsarbeit
  Telefon +49 (9621) 482-3135
  Fax +49 (9621) 482-4135
  s.wiesel@oth-aw.de

  Bestellungen schriftlich erbeten an:
  Ostbayerische Technische Hochschule Amberg-Weiden
  Abt. Weiden, Bibliothek
  Hetzenrichter Weg 15,
  D – 92637 Weiden i.d.Opf.
  Die Diskussionsbeiträge können elektronisch abgerufen werden unter
  http://www.oth-aw.de/aktuelles/veroeffentlichungen/weidener_diskussionspapiere/

  Alle Rechte, insbesondere das Recht der Vervielfältigung und Verbreitung sowie Übersetzung vorbehalten.
  Nachdruck nur mit Quellenangabe gestattet.

  ISBN 978-3-937804-82-8

• Abteilung Amberg: Kaiser-Wilhelm-Ring 23, 92224 Amberg,
		 Tel.: (09621) 482-0, Fax: (09621) 482-4991

• Abteilung Weiden: Hetzenrichter Weg 15, 92637 Weiden i. d. OPf.,
		 Tel.: (0961) 382-0, Fax: (0961) 382-2991

• E-Mail: info@oth-aw.de | Internet: http://www.oth-aw.de
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