Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council - Joint Draft Housing Strategy 2009-2015
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Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council Joint Draft Housing Strategy 2009-2015 Comhairle Chontae na Gaillimhe October 2008
Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council Joint Draft Housing Strategy 2009-2015 Project No: 139141 June 2008 8 Windsor Place Dublin 2 Ireland Telephone: 01 669 0820 Fax: 01 669 0827 Email : Info@cbuchanan.ie Prepared by: Approved by: ____________________________________________ ____________________________________________ thomas.maguire/ryan.emmett alice.charles Status: Draft Issue no: 2 Date: 10 June 2008 c:\documents and settings\thomas.maguire.cbpirl.000\desktop\draft galway hs 2009.doc (C) Copyright Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared for the exclusive use of the commissioning party and unless otherwise agreed in writing by Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited, no other party may copy, reproduce, distribute, make use of, or rely on the contents of the report. No liability is accepted by Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited for any use of this report, other than for the purposes for which it was originally prepared and provided. Opinions and information provided in this report are on the basis of Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited using due skill, care and diligence in the preparation of the same and no explicit warranty is provided as to their accuracy. It should be noted and is expressly stated that no independent verification of any of the documents or information supplied to Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited has been made
Contents Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I 1. INTRODUCTION 3 2. HOUSING DEMAND 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 Projected Household Formation Figures 5 2.3 Disposable Income Projections 6 2.4 House Price Projections 8 2.5 Distribution of Residential Property Values 9 2.6 Affordability Analysis 11 APPENDIX 14 "Click here to enter text for Appendix 2" 24 Tables Page Table 1.1: Projected Population and Households Galway County under preferred scenario 2009-2015 6 Table 1.2: Summary of Projected Population outcomes 6 Table 1.3: Average Disposable Household Income, Galway and State 2000-2005 7 Table 1.4: Forecast House Price Inflation to 2015 9
Error! Unknown document property name. Error! Unknown document property name. Executive Summary Colin Buchanan (CB) have been appointed by Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council to prepare the Housing Strategy for both housing authorities in line with the ongoing process leading to the adoption of a new County Development Plan for the period 2009- 2015. The principal findings to emerge from the analysis presented in this Draft Housing Strategy are as follows: The population of Galway County Council’s functioning area is projected to rise from the 159,256 recorded in Census year 2006 to 168,646 in 2009 and 190,433 by 2015. Overall the projection envisages a total County population increase of 31,177 from 2006 to 2015. A total of 16,420 new households are expected to be formed in County Galway during the 2009-2015 period. Of this figure 8,818 new households are expected to be housed on residentially zoned lands. The Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council housing Waiting Lists totals 885 households (As of 2005 – DoEHLG Housing Needs Assessment data). This figure represents all households assessed as eligible for social housing support by both housing authorities. 42% of the above figure relates to single person households. A further list of c.550 applicants are registered with both housing authorities as eligible for and actively seeking affordable housing. 25 of these applicants have expressed a preference to be considered only for Part V affordable housing in privately built developments where available. Over the period of this strategy 17.7% of land zoned for residential or for a mix of residential and other uses may be reserved (alternative arrangements may be enacted in lieu of this reserve) to meet the accumulated and prospective need for social and affordable housing within the County. As far as possible the local authorities will address this need while maintaining an emphasis on sustainable development. Galway County has been particularly affected by issues related to housing affordability over the previous Housing Strategy period. This is due to its below average per-capita disposable income level, rising number of household formations and other demand side factors driving house price inflation. Recent adjustments in house prices, coupled with observed actual growth in household income figures has led somewhat to a reduction in the observed ‘affordability gap’ for housing on the open market. The availability of zoned land is not expected to act as a constraint over the course of the upcoming Development Plan. The ultimate allowable figure of 17.7% provision of social and affordable housing (or alternative agreements drawn up by developers and the Local Authorities) as calculated using the methodology laid out in the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government (DoEHLG) Model Housing Strategy Guide 2000, will remain in place regarding Local Authority interaction with the private house building sector. The allocation between social and affordable housing will be determined on a case-by-case basis, depending on the identified social and affordable needs of an area within which any given development is taking place and the specific features of that development. Under Section 15 of the Planning and Development Act 2000 the Manager must prepare a report for the elected members two years after the adoption of a development plan which shall include a review of the progress achieved in securing the objectives of the plan. This shall include progress made in implementing the housing strategy. Where the report indicates that new or revised housing needs have been identified, the Manager may recommend that the Housing Strategy be adjusted and that the development plan be varied accordingly. The Manager may also bring such a report to the members if he or she considers that there has been a change in the housing market or in the regulations made by i
the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government under the Act that significantly affects the housing strategy. ii
Error! Unknown document property name. Error! Unknown document property name. 1. Introduction 1.1.1 Part V of the Planning and Development Act 2000 (the Act) requires that housing strategies be drawn up by planning authorities and integrated into their development plans. The strategy is to have regard to the proper planning and sustainable development of an area and will be concerned with the overall supply of housing within the administrative area of the Local Authority. 1.1.2 The Act states that the needs for social and affordable housing shall be a material planning consideration which must be taken into account in formulating development plan policies, preparing the housing strategy and deciding on planning applications. 1.1.3 The Act places a statutory obligation on the Planning Authority to ensure that sufficient land is zoned for housing in its development plan to meet the projected housing requirement over the period of the plan and to ensure that shortage will not arise. 1.1.4 The housing strategy shall: A. Include an estimate of, and provision for, the existing need and the likely future need for housing in the area covered by the development plan. The Planning Authority shall ensure that sufficient and suitable land is zoned in its development plan for residential use (or for a mixture of residential and other uses), to meet the requirements of the housing strategy and to ensure that a scarcity of such land does not occur at any time during the period of the development plan. B. Take into account the need to ensure that housing is available for persons who have different levels of income and in particular for those in need of social or affordable housing in the area. A housing strategy shall therefore provide that as a general policy a specified percentage, not being more than 20% of the land zoned in the development plan for residential use, or for a mixture of residential and other uses, shall be reserved for social and/or affordable housing. C. Ensure that a mixture of house types and sizes is developed to reasonably match the requirements of the different categories of households, as may be determined by the Planning Authority, including the special requirements of elderly persons and persons with disabilities. D. Counteract undue segregation in housing between persons of different social backgrounds. The Planning Authority may indicate in respect of any residential area that there is no requirement for social/affordable housing in respect of that area, or that a lower percentage than that specified in the housing strategy may instead be required. 1.1.5 The development plan must be amended if necessary to incorporate the housing strategy and shall include objectives to secure the implementation of the strategy, including objectives requiring that a specified percentage of lands zoned for residential development be made available for social and affordable housing. A Planning Authority or An Bord Pleanála on appeal may include a condition on a grant of permission requiring the applicant to enter into an agreement regarding the provision of social housing. 1.1.6 The Manager must prepare a report for the elected members two years after the adoption of a development plan, which shall include a review of the progress 3
achieved in securing the objectives of the plan. This shall include progress made in implementing the housing strategy. Where the report indicates that new or revised housing needs have been identified, the Manager may recommend that the housing strategy be adjusted and that the development plan be varied accordingly. The Manager may also bring such a report to the members if he or she considers that there has been a change in the housing market or in the regulations made by the Minister for the Environment under the Act that significantly affects the housing strategy. 1.1.7 The current Galway County Development Plan was adopted in 2003. The making of a new development plan is underway and a Draft Development Plan will be published in 2008. 1.1.8 A housing strategy may be prepared jointly by two or more Planning Authorities. The housing strategy for the county (not including the administrative area of Galway City Council) is being prepared jointly by Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council. In the preparation of the housing strategy regard was had to the Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide issued by the Department of Environment and Local Government (DoEHLG) as part of the Housing Supply Guidelines (December 2000). 1.1.9 Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council will seek submissions from a variety of stakeholders prior to the preparation of the final draft of this strategy that will be adopted concurrently with the new County Development Plan.
2. Housing demand 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 In order to estimate demand for housing over the development plan period 2009- 2015 we need to determine how Galway’s population is expected to grow over the next decade. Part of this exercise involves reviewing existing population projections contained in data prepared by the National Spatial Strategy (NSS), Central Statistics Office (CSO) and Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government (DoEHLG). 2.1.2 A review of current projections and the rationale for developing a preferred population scenario for Galway County is contained in the Appendix A. Table 2.1 below contains a summary of the chosen population forecast to 2015. Table 2.1: Preferred Population Scenario: County Galway 2009-2015 Projected Population 2007 161,595 2008 165,120 2009 168,646 2010 172,172 2011 175,697 2012 179,381 2013 183,065 2014 186,749 2015 190,433 2.1.3 This section presents forecasts based upon a median projected population growth figure correlated with statistical information available from central government sources on household size and average per capita income. 2.1.4 An estimate of the number of households for the period 2009-2015 likely to experience difficulty in purchasing housing on the open market is established via the interpretation of this baseline data. 2.2 Projected Household Formation Figures 2.2.1 Based on the population projection set out above we can estimate overall household formation in Galway by dividing forecast population by average household size. 2.2.2 In line with the national trend, household size in the County has declined over recent decades and this is assumed to continue from the start of the projections in 2006 and throughout the period covered by the Housing Strategy to 2015. 2.2.3 Household size in Galway has declined on average by 0.04 persons per year since 1991 to an estimated 2.9 heads per household in 2006. It is assumed this rate of 1 decline continues year on year as per DoEHLG and CSO projections. This observed trend predicts an average county household of 2.54 persons in 2015. 2.2.4 Table 2.2 summarises population and additional households for the County for the preferred central population scenario. 1 Residential Density Guidelines for Planning Authorities 1999.
Table 2.2: Projected Population and Households Galway County under preferred scenario 2009-2015 Year Population Average Household Additional (Preferred Household Numbers Households Scenario) Size 2006 (census 159,256 2.9 54,916 figures) 2007 161,595 2.86 56,502 1,586 2008 165,120 2.82 58,553 2,052 2009 168,646 2.78 60,664 2,111 2010 172,172 2.74 62,836 2,172 2011 175,697 2.7 65,073 2,237 2012 179,381 2.66 67,437 2,363 2013 183,065 2.62 69,872 2,436 2014 186,749 2.58 72,383 2,511 2015 190,433 2.54 74,974 2,590 2.2.5 Population in Galway County is projected to rise from the 159,256 recorded in Census year 2006 to 168,646 in 2009 and 190,433 by 2015. Overall the projection envisages a total County population increase of 31,177 from 2006 to 2015. 2.2.6 Using the assumption of continued decline in average household size this gives a projected rise in population of 25,313 and number of new households formed over the development plan period 2009 to 2015 of 16,420. Table 2.3 provides a summary of these results Table 2.3: Summary of Projected Population outcomes Population Scenario Change: Galway County 2009-2015 Population Additional Households Central- Preferred 25,313 16,420 2.3 Disposable Income Projections 2.3.1 Disposable income is the amount of income after tax is deducted that is available for spending and saving. The average disposable household income for Galway County is derived from CSO regional income statistics; the latest year for which data is available is 2005. 2.3.2 A short profile of Galway’s economy and performance as a background to household incomes relative to the State is provided in the Appendix B. 2.3.3 Galway’s average household income as a proportion of the State level declined in 2005 to 96% from 97.7%. The County Income numbers can be volatile due to the sample size. However, given that this is the best indication for sub-regional household incomes from official sources, we have taken an average of the proportions between 2000 and 2005. On the basis of this calculation, Galway’s
disposable household income as a proportion of State household income is 96.1% as summarised in table 2.4. Table 2.4: Average Disposable Household Income, Galway and State 2000- 2005 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Galway €13,463 €15,069 €16,390 €17,520 €18,462 €19,355 State €13,977 €15,841 €17,088 €18,295 €18,906 €20,164 Galway share of State 96.3 95.1 95.9 95.8 97.7 96.0 % Average share 2000- 96.1% 05 2.3.4 In order to estimate the affordability of housing in the County, information on the distribution of household income is required. This has been estimated using a combination of sources from CSO Household Budget and Regional Income Surveys. 2.3.5 The CSO figures suggest household income in Ireland is distributed fairly evenly from the lowest to the highest income bracket, although regional figures show considerable variation with a notably higher proportion of households at the lower end of the income distribution. 2.3.6 Without more local data it is difficult to determine whether household income in Galway County resembles the national picture or is more aligned with regional figures. Assuming that it lies somewhere between the two we have taken a simple average of the national and regional statistics as a proxy measurement for Galway. This is displayed in table 2.5 2.3.7 Average incomes for the State are split into ten income segments or ‘deciles’. The average income within each of these deciles are then factored by 96.1% to derive an estimate of average weekly income levels in Galway County for 2005. Table 2.5. Estimated Distribution of Household Income; State and Galway County Income Average Households Average County Av. Annual Decile Income, € Per in each National Galway Disposable Week, 2005- Category % Annual Deflator Income, upper Disposable Galway 2005 threshold Income (€) (€) 1
2.3.8 The figures are then inflated annually for the year’s 2006 to 2015 using average disposable household income actual and forecast growth rates from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). 2.3.9 The economic projections within the ESRI Medium Term Review consist of high growth and low growth projections. We have applied the ESRI’s estimates for income growth for 2007 and 2008. However, given the economic outlook in the context of current adjustments in the world economy, particularly in the USA, we have taken an average of the two scenarios for per annum growth in personal disposable income from 2009 to 2015. Income distribution is assumed to remain unchanged over the projection period. 2.3.10 Table 2.6 sets out our assumptions for per annum income growth and how upper limits for each income decile are expected to grow over the period of the Housing Strategy. Table 2.6. Projected Distribution of Households by Disposable Income 2007-2015 Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 growth % p.a. 6.6 5.2 4.5 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 st 1 decile €9,130 €9,605 €10,037 €10,690 €11,362 €12,070 €12,822 €13,621 €14,470 nd 2 decile €14,049 €14,780 €15,444 €16,449 €17,484 €18,573 €19,731 €20,960 €22,266 rd 3 decile €20,623 €21,695 €22,670 €24,146 €25,664 €27,264 €28,963 €30,767 €32,685 th 4 decile €28,041 €29,499 €30,825 €32,831 €34,896 €37,071 €39,381 €41,835 €44,442 th 5 decile €36,081 €37,957 €39,663 €42,245 €44,902 €47,700 €50,672 €53,830 €57,184 th 6 decile €44,765 €47,092 €49,209 €52,412 €55,709 €59,180 €62,868 €66,786 €70,947 th 7 decile €54,602 €57,442 €60,024 €63,931 €67,952 €72,186 €76,684 €81,463 €86,539 th 8 decile €67,046 €70,533 €73,703 €78,501 €83,438 €88,637 €94,161 €100,028 €106,261 th 9 decile €81,587 €85,830 €89,688 €95,526 €101,534 €107,861 €114,583 €121,723 €129,308 10th decile €128,174 €134,839 €140,900 €150,071 €159,510 €169,450 €180,009 €191,226 €203,142 2.4 House Price Projections 2.4.1 The DoEHLG circular (HS 4/00) of 13th December 2000 recommended that; “planning authorities should construct their own forecasts of price trends in the light of experience and local circumstances as potentially there will be significant variations in house price levels and trends between different areas of the country (and possibly within individual counties) and between different segments of the market” 2.4.2 Table 2.7 summarises average prices for all houses including apartments in County Galway and the annual change between 2001 and 2007.
Table 2.7 House Price Trends, County Galway to 2007 Year Average House Price, € Annual % Change 2000 163,824 2001 171,161 4.5 2002 187,607 9.6 2003 223,388 19.1 2004 242,218 8.4 2005 274,905 13.5 2006 286,176 4.1 2007Q1-Q3 303,544 6.1 Source: DoEHLG. 2.4.3 A provisional house price forecast for County Galway for 2008 to 2015 is shown in Table 2.8. Given current volatility in the Irish housing market and an absence of medium and long term house price projections in Ireland we have assumed residential property values to remain flat in 2008 and 2009 and rise 3% per annum thereafter. Table 2.8: Galway County Forecast House Price Inflation to 2015 Year House Price Growth, Annual change % 2008 0 2009 0 2010 3 2011 3 2012 3 2013 3 2014 3 2015 3 2.5 Distribution of Residential Property Values 2.5.1 The Department of Heritage, Environment and Local Government (DoEHLG) collects information on the distribution of new and existing housing values by County, based on sales records. The latest data for Galway County is 2006 and is displayed in Table 2.9. The figures indicate that approximately 55% of all housing was sold for a minimum €200,000 and a maximum €350,000 in 2006, with less than 1% of stock selling for below €100,000. 2.5.2 Taking into account the distribution of housing stock value and house price fluctuations since 2006 we have assumed that the current threshold for the affordability of a new house on the open market is €175,000. This will be the upper limit for the lowest house price band.
Table 2.9. Distribution of the Housing Stock Value, Galway County Range House Price Band % Share to Q3, 2007 (€) 1 Up to €100K 0.8% 2 €100K to €150K 7.9% 3 €150K to €200K 19.3% 4 €200K to €250K 24.0% 5 €250K to €300K 19.6% 6 €300K to €350K 11.3% 7 €350K to €400K 6.1% 8 €400K to €450K 3.2% 9 €450K to €500K 3.8% 10 €500K + 4.1% TOTAL 100.0% Source: DoEHLG 2.5.3 Assuming the price of new housing is distributed evenly between the €50k bands as shown in table 2.9 we estimate that just over 18% of housing stock will be available at or below €175k in 2008. 2.5.4 The next step is to apply the projected changes for house prices to the upper limit of housing affordability from 2008 to 2015 to compare with the timeline of the forthcoming Development Plan. These figures are displayed in Table 2.10. This calculation enables us to project how many new houses built for each year are likely to fall within an affordable price range. Table 2.10: How Price Changes – Upper Limit of Most Affordable Housing 2008-2015 Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Forecast House Prices Change 0% 0% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Upper Limit of Lowest Price Band € 175,000 175,000 180,250 185,658 191,227 196,964 202,873 208,959 2.5.5 Based on figures to September 2007 (source: DoEHLG Quarterly Housing Statistics, Q3 2007) it is estimated that the total number of housing completions (including private, public and voluntary sectors) in Galway for 2007 at approximately 3,334. New build housing in Galway for each year from 2008 to 2014 is assumed to be an average of that built annually for the past six years (2002 to 2007), giving a total of 3,369 units per annum. 2.5.6 The distribution of the housing stock value is then applied across the house building figures for each year to 2015. Table 2.11 estimates how many houses in each price band will be built for each year to 2015.
Table 2.11. Projected Housing Units Completions by Price Range, Galway County 2007 to 2015 Price Range 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 € 1 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 2 264 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 266 3 642 649 649 649 649 649 649 649 649 4 799 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 808 5 653 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 6 377 381 381 381 381 381 381 381 381 7 205 207 207 207 207 207 207 207 207 8 107 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 108 9 128 129 129 129 129 129 129 129 129 10 136 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 TOTAL 3,334 3,369 3,369 3,369 3,369 3,369 3,369 3,369 3,369 2.6 Affordability Analysis 2.6.1 Drawing on the established estimated distribution of; Household disposable income and Distribution of housing stock value 2.6.2 The next stage is to determine housing affordability for future households in each income band over the Development Plan period 2009-2015. 2.6.3 Based on the calculations for income distribution in Galway County presented in Table 2.5 and the projections for household formation under the preferred population scenario shown in Table 2.2, Table 2.12 below shows how new households are expected to be distributed across the income range from 2009 to 2015. Table 2.12: Additional Households to 2015 under Preferred Population Scenario Year % 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 st 1 decile 12.1% 256 263 271 286 295 304 314 nd 2 decile 11.9% 251 258 266 280 289 298 307 rd 3 decile 11.9% 250 258 265 280 289 298 307 th 4 decile 10.7% 226 232 239 253 260 268 277 th 5 decile 9.9% 209 215 222 234 241 249 257 th 6 decile 10.6% 224 230 237 250 258 266 274 th 7 decile 9.1% 191 197 203 214 221 228 235 th 8 decile 8.5% 179 184 190 200 207 213 220 th 9 decile 8.2% 174 179 184 195 201 207 213 th 10 decile 7.2% 152 156 161 170 175 181 186 TOTAL* 100% 2,111* 2,172* 2,237* 2,363* 2,436* 2,511* 2,590* *figures may not sum due to rounding
2.6.4 The projections for household income to 2015 and the annuity formula as set out in the DoEHLG Model Housing Strategy are now used to work out the maximum affordable house price for households for each of the income deciles in Table 2.12. 2.6.5 The annuity formula for calculating affordability is the standard one applied in the Model Housing Strategy document as follows: 90% H Price = 35% * Monthly Income * [ 1 – (1 + APR/12) –25 years * 12] 2.6.6 / [ APR/12 ] 2.6.7 The key variables used in the annuity formula are income, interest rates, loan to value ratio and the lifetime of the mortgage loan. 2.6.8 As guided by the Model Strategy we have assumed an average interest rate of 5.5% per annum, loan to value ratio of 90% and mortgage lifetime of 25 years. These variables are dictated by the provisions of the model housing strategy framed in 2000 and could potentially be revised by the DoEHLG during the Development Plan period. 2.6.9 The total affordable housing requirement for each year is determined by the total number of households whose maximum affordable house price falls below the upper limit for the lowest price house band. This is calculated for the preferred population scenario and is displayed in Table 2.13. 2.6.10 The actual shortfall in affordable housing provision for each year is the total demand for affordable housing from new household formations, net of the number of homes expected to be built in the open market in the lowest price band. In Table 2.13 this is indicated in the column ‘AH Requirement’. 2.6.11 Affordable housing in this calculation relates to the quantum of new households unable to purchase their own home at predicted open market values and includes all categories of identified non-open market housing need. It is distinct from local authority, housing association, voluntary sector and other providers of housing which is usually not available on the open market and hence has not been included within our calculations of affordability and affordable housing requirement.
Table 2.13 Affordable Housing Requirement and Likely Shortfall under Central Preferred Population Scenario to 2015 Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TOTAL* 2 Total Units 3,369 3,369 3,369 3,369 3,369 3,369 3,369 23,583 Built Forecast Total AH Requirement 1,076 1,079 1,085 1,120 1,128 1,132 1,137 7,758 Expected Build- Affordable 618 618 618 618 618 618 618 4,325 AH Shortfall 458 461 468 502 510 514 519 3,433 Share of Forecast New Build 13.7% 13.7% 13.9% 14.9% 15.1% 15.3% 15.4% n/a *figures may not sum due to rounding 2.6.12 The preferred population scenario envisages an estimated affordable housing shortfall of 458 and 467 homes in the first two years of the Housing Strategy and then an average of 504 homes for the remaining years 2011 to 2015. This is net of what is projected to be built at prices below the upper limit of the most affordable housing. A steady rise in the affordable housing requirement occurs over the period after 2011 as household formation grows. Over the whole period, a total affordable housing shortfall of 3,433 is envisaged. 2.6.13 In the first four years of the Strategy to 2012, all households in the lower 4 income deciles are expected to require affordable housing assistance. In addition the number of households from the fifth income decile are 94 in 2009, 69 households in 2010, 45 households in 2011 and 21 households in 2012. In years 2013 to 2015 all households in the bottom three income deciles are expected to require affordable housing, plus from the fourth decile: 255 households in 2013, 232 in 2014 and 209 in 2015. 2 Total housing completion forecasts will diverge from household formation predictions due to second homes, vacant units and variations in baseline forecast data.
3. Housing Supply 3.1 Introduction 3.1.1 This section presents an overview of housing activity in the years applicable to the previous Housing Strategy where whole year housing data is available. At the time of compiling this strategy full year housing supply statistics for 2007 are not yet available. 3.1.2 Considering the exceptional level of housing construction activity in 2007 it is assumed that the use of housing statistics for 2007 may potentially skew any predictive housing data presented for the forthcoming Development Plan period. 3.1.3 Forecasted housing supply figures presented for the period 2009-2015 in this section are therefore an average of observed housing activity across all sectors during the period 2002-2006. 3.2 Housing Supply 2002-2006 3.2.1 Table 3.1 compares the predicted household formation figures presented in the 2001 Housing Strategy to actual housing completion statistics for the county obtained from the DoEHLG database. The ‘Other Housing Supply’ column relates to units provided directly by the public and voluntary housing sectors. Table 4.1: Forecast Housing Demand and Actual Supply 2002-2006 Year Predicted Demand Actual Supply Private Housing Other Housing 2001 Strategy (Units) Supply Supply (Units/New Households) 2002 1,353 2,265 2075 190 2003 1,353 3,170 3042 128 2004 1,353 3,392 3199 193 2005 1,353 3,537 3347 190 2006 1,353 4,512 4396 116 TOTAL 6,765 16,876 16,059 817 3.2.2 The outstripping of predicted demand by actual supply mirrors other housing strategies prepared during the same time period and the nationwide trend of accelerated housing output. The total figures for the period amount to a 249% surpassing of the 2001 Housing Strategy new household formation predictions by housing construction. 3.2.3 For the intercensal period 2002-2006 an increase in household numbers for the county of 8,055 was recorded by the CSO. The discrepancy in housing supply figures and new household formation data for the period may be explained by; • Vacant Housing and holiday homes (recorded as 20.1% of all housing units in the county for census 2006) • Differences in time period between both data sets compilation (ie post- th st census night housing unit completions for the period April 24 2006-31 December 2006) • Obsolescence/ replacement of existing housing
• Person per household figures decreasing faster than national projections- comparing growth in the number of households with actual population increase it is observed that the person per household figure in new households formed during he period 2002-2006 is 1.96, significantly lower than national predictions. 3.2.4 This increase in housing activity and household formation is reflected in the larger quantum of both predicted demand and predicted housing supply for this strategy compared to the previous strategy. This overall intensification of activity in the housing market reflects the population and economic growth of the country as a whole for the period in question. 4.2 Provision of Social and Affordable Housing 3.2.5 The ‘Other Housing supply’ column as shown in Table 4.1 is indicative of the new units provided by the voluntary/co-operative sector and Galway’s Multi– Annual Social Housing Programme. Table 3.2 provides a year-by-year breakdown of the types of social housing provision provided by the local authorities during the previous Housing Strategy period. Table 3.2: New Units- Multi Annual Social Housing Programme Year New Direct Build Purchase From Market 2002 103 22 2003 85 14 2004 93 26 2005 129 25 2006 79 50 Total 489 137 3.2.6 This amounts to a total provision for the period from this programme of 626 new homes for applicants on the local authority housing list from these specific initiatives. 3.2.7 In addition to local authority housing provision, 328 new units of housing were completed by the voluntary and cooperative housing sector under the Capital Assistance Scheme for the period 2002-2006.
Table4.3: New Units- Voluntary and Cooperative Housing Sector 2002- 2006 Year New Build 2002 87 2003 43 2004 100 2005 61 2006 37 Total 328 3.2.8 Demand for affordable housing is most readily identified in areas adjacent to Galway city. Most recent figures for applications to be considered for affordable housing reveal a figure of c.550 as assessed as being eligible for affordable housing initiatives. 3.2.9 Table 3.4 sets out the variety and number of initiatives instigated by both housing authorities in this regard for the period 2002-2006 Table 3.4: Affordable Housing Initiatives 2002-2006 Year Shared 1999 Affordable Mortgage Houses Houses Sold Ownership Housing Allowance for Acquired Under Tenant Loans Scheme tenants to buy under Part V Purchase private housing agreements Scheme 2002 8 36 3 0 46 2003 10 22 11 0 67 2004 15 38 12 5 76 2005 6 36 8 11 65 2006 3 45 6 11 52 Total 42 177 40 27 306 3.2.10 In total 592 households have been assisted on the path to home ownership by Galway local authorities during the course of the previous strategy under the various affordable housing initiatives outlined above. 3.2.11 Figures available from the DoEHLG indicate a total Social and Affordable Housing provision made available (excluding Houses sold by the Local Authorities under the Tenant Purchase Scheme) facilitating 1,713 households for the period 2002-2006. Table 3.5 presents the total quantitative figures available pertaining to Social and Affordable housing provision over the course of the previous strategy period.
Table 3.5. Total Social and Affordable Housing Provision, Galway County/Ballinasloe Town Council Authorities 2002-2006 (units). Row Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total 1 Authorised Starts for 165 165 184 0 169 683 Local Authority Housing (Number) 2 Actual Starts for Local 96 103 135 209 122 665 Authority Housing (Number) 3 Local Authority New 103 85 93 129 79 489 Build (Number) 4 Local Authority 22 14 26 25 50 137 Acquisitions (Number) 5 Voluntary Housing 87 43 100 61 37 328 New Build (Number) 6 Extensions and 22 14 26 20 32 114 Improvements in Lieu of Local Authority Housing (Number) 7 Houses Let in year 57 66 81 75 80 359 from Existing Local Authority Dwellings (Number) 8 Mortgage Allowance 3 11 12 8 6 40 for Local Authority Tenants to buy Private Houses (Number) 9 Shared Ownership 8 10 15 6 3 42 Affordable Housing Scheme Transactions Completed (Number) 10 Houses Provided 36 22 38 36 45 177 under the 1999 Affordable Housing Scheme (Number) 11 Affordable Houses 0 0 5 11 11 27 Acquired under Part V of Planning and Development Acts 2000-2006 (Number) 12 Households Assisted 291 222 326 310 278 1427 through Social Housing Measures (Number = Total Rows 3 to 7) 13 Households Assisted 47 43 70 61 65 286 through Affordable Housing Measures (Number = Total Rows 8 to 11) 14 Households Assisted 338 265 396 371 343 1713 through Social and Affordable Housing Measures (Number= Total Rows 12 + 13)
3.3 Overall Housing Supply 2009-2015 3.3.1 This section of the housing strategy deals with factors that influence housing supply and addresses the planning and management of the physical environment in County Galway. An important consideration in the equation is the emphasis on the application of principles of sustainable development within the County. 3.3.2 In recent years, Central Government policies on sustainable development have been aimed at reducing the demand for travel and the promotion of higher residential densities. The underlying principles seek to: Reduce the need for the development of greenfield sites Limit urban sprawl and ribbon development Ensure more economic use of existing infrastructure Enhance access to existing services and facilities Create more sustainable commuting patterns 3.3.3 Decreasing household size and increases in development pressure in the County require a more efficient and sustainable use of serviced land. This requires an increase in the density of residential developments throughout the County especially close to public transport routes and on serviced land. The need for increased housing densities however, needs to be qualified by the application of vigorous settlement strategies and objectives that acknowledge the imperative of improved public transport linkages and sensitive, appropriate design guidance to govern any proposed development beyond crude quantitative criteria. 3.4 Zoned Lands 3.4.1 Part V of the Planning and Development Act 2000 only applies to zoned land. At present under the various County Local Area-specific plans there are 11 settlements in the County that are covered by land-use zoning plans and therefore contain residential zonings. 3.4.2 As of June 30, 2006 there were 582 hectares of residentially zoned, serviced land available across the county. Table 3.6. Availability of Residentially Zoned Serviced Land 2002-2006 Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Serviced Land Available for Housing (Hectares) 416 233 861 319 582 Expected Number of Housing Units from Serviced Land (Number) 11,105 6,280 21,915 8,484 15,004 3.4.3 At an assumed average new build of 25.8 housing units per hectare this means a total potential housing supply of 15,004 new housing units. 3.4.4 Analysis of total available residentially zoned, serviced land reveals that there is adequate supply for the upcoming development plan period. Figures available from the DoEHLG reveal that on average for the period 2004-2006, 46.3% of all housing units provided in the county were single houses and therefore exempt
from the provisions of Part V (as amended) of the Planning and Development Act. This figure is derived from a shorter timeframe compared to other housing supply data used in this section as the DoEHLG modified their categories of housing type completion data from 2004 onwards and previous house type supply data is not directly comparable. 3.4.5 Given a predicted total level of new household formations of 16,420 for the period 2009-2015 (see Table 2.3) and assuming 53.7% of all new households will be housed in scheme/multiple housing units built on zoned land, a figure is derived for the period 2009-2015 of 8,818 new household formations on 342 hectares of zoned, serviced land. This represents a predicted land consumption of 59% of the observed 2006 residentially zoned land bank countywide. 3.4.6 This figure may also be analysed using data from Table 2.13 based on data including a forecast of all new housing built that includes figures for potentially vacant/holiday homes and a more marked decline in person per household figures as outlined in Section 3.1.3. This equation would predict an overall use of 491 hectares of zoned, serviced land for the period 2009-2015- assuming a completion of 3,369 units per annum at a density of 25.8 units per hectare. This would represent a predicted land consumption of 84% of the observed residentially zoned, serviced 2006 land bank countywide. 3.4.7 In addition, the extent of existing residentially zoned lands will be revised in the context of each individual Local Area Plan review process for each centre and does not preclude additional zoning in specific locations where the Planning Authority is satisfied that a clearly established need for such zoning is required. 3.5 Predicted Social and Affordable Housing Supply 2009- 2015 3.5.1 Table 3.7 overleaf presents the predicted total Social and Affordable housing supply for both housing authorities over the upcoming Development Plan period. Figures are presented by category and are derived from average output statistics for the period 2002-2006. 3.5.2 Forecasted total Social and Affordable housing provision-provided by both housing authorities, the voluntary and cooperative sector and other affordable housing initiatives is predicted to amount to 2,870 new units for the period 2009- 2015. 3.5.3 Forecast figures for overall housing provision available via the transfer of completed units by private developers to social/affordable housing providers may be expected to increase in the coming years as the Part V scheme begins to have greater effect. 3.5.4 For the purposes of compiling this section of the Housing Strategy an assumption is made that increased social/affordable housing provision under Part V direct acquisitions will occur commensurate with a reduction in affordable housing units under the 1999 Affordable Housing Scheme. 3.5.5 An important element of the review of the figures used to compile this strategy will be the regular monitoring of data as it becomes available from the DoEHLG.
Table 3.7. Estimated Total Social and Affordable Housing Provison (units) 2009-2015 Row Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1 Local Authority New 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 686 Build 2 Local Authority 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 189 Acquisitions (Number) 3 Voluntary Housing New 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 462 Build (Number) 4 Extensions and 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 161 Improvements in Lieu of LA Housing (Number) 5 Houses Let in year from 72 72 72 72 72 72 72 504 Existing LA Dwellings (Number) 6 Mortgage Allowance for 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 56 LA Tenants to buy Private Houses (Number) 7 Shared Ownership 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 56 Affordable Housing Scheme Transactions Completed (Number) 8 Houses Provided under 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 147 the 1999 Affordable Housing Scheme (Number) 9 Affordable Houses 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 175 Acquired under Part V of Planning Acts 2000- 2006 (Number) 10 Households Assisted 348 348 348 348 348 348 348 2,436 through Social Housing Measures (Number = Total Rows 1 to 5) 11 Households Assisted 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 434 Through Affordable Housing Measures (Number = Total Rows 6 to 9) 12 Households Assisted 410 410 410 410 410 410 410 2,870 Social and Affordable Housing Measures (Total Rows 10 +11)
4. Determination of Requirements 4.1 Demand or Need 4.1.1 The elements of housing need or demand are made up of accumulated need and prospective need. Accumulated need is made up from the local authority social housing register and those with special needs. The prospective need is a percentage of households from the total number of new households requiring affordable or social housing based on projected income profiles. 4.1.2 The supply to meet the demand is met by the local authority multi-annual programme over the plan period, voluntary housing organisations projected completions, the local authority’s affordable housing scheme and supply from the private sector to meet open market demand. 4.1.3 The requirement for social and affordable housing stems from two main sources: existing households who cannot afford to meet their housing needs and new households who will be unable to afford either owner occupied or market rented accommodation. 4.2 Existing Social Housing Need 4.2.1 The main source of information on existing households who are currently in housing need is the local authority social housing register. Access to social housing is largely determined by registration on the local authority waiting list – particularly given that housing associations have to take 75% of applicants from the local authority waiting list. It is therefore a good proxy for actual demand. 4.2.2 The total number of applicants at December 31st 2005 for both housing authorities was 885 households considered eligible for social housing 4.3 Prospective Need 4.3.1 The affordability analysis in section 2 presents a measure of the prospective quantity of new housing in County Galway for the period 2009-2015. Table 2.13 indicates that 3,433 or 13.7% - 15.4% of new households predicted to be formed (under the preferred Central Population Growth Scenario) will experience affordability difficulties over the period 2009-2015. This is the prospective need only and does not take into account the accumulated need as reflected by the Council’s housing list. 4.4 Balancing Need and Demand 4.4.1 The percentage required from the private sector will be X% and made up as follows: The number of new households requiring social & affordable housing - (minus) the surplus from the planned provision of social and affordable housing over the accumulated need as measured by the waiting list. / (divided by) (Total no. of households to be formed over the period , minus all houses constructed on unzoned land) 4.4.2 The total number of projected new households over the period 2009-2015 as detailed in Table 2.3 is 16,420. The total number of these households that will be housed on unzoned land and in non-Part V housing schemes is estimated
at 46.3%% of the total: i.e. 7,602- leaving a projected new household formation total on residentially zoned land of 8,818 for the period 2009-2015. 4.4.3 Therefore the calculation is as follows: A. Number of new households requiring social or affordable housing = 3,433 B. Estimated supply of social and affordable housing under the various multi- annual programmes = 2,870 (see Table 3.7). 4.4.4 The surplus available to meet social housing need is 2,870 minus 116 (25% of projected Voluntary/Cooperative Housing provision) minus 885 (the number of people on the Galway County and Ballinasloe Town Council waiting lists reasonably to be expected to be housed during the strategy timeframe) = 1,869 Therefore the required percentage X is Numerator : 3,433 Minus 1,869 = 1,564 Denominator :16,420 Minus 7,602 = 8,818 X=1,564/8,818 = 17.7% The requirement over the lifetime of the plan is therefore 17-18% 4.4.5 Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the step by step analysis is as realistic as possible, the results of the analysis should be regarded as providing the broad pattern of supply and demand rather than precise results. 4.5 Methods of Providing Affordable/Social Housing 4.5.1 The requirement under Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 as amended for Social/Affordable housing in developments may be met by the following methods or by a combination thereof: - The direct provision of the required number of housing units, as determined in accordance with the Strategy, integrated as part of the overall development of a site. The disposal of a portion of the site to the Council which will enable the Council to provide the appropriate number of units thereon in satisfaction of the requirements of the Strategy. The provision of lands for social/affordable housing units to satisfy the overall requirements of the Strategy. The purchase of suitable developed units for disposal at affordable prices. Entering into public private partnership agreements with developers for the provision of affordable housing on Council and developer owned lands. 4.5.2 The developers may enter into joint agreements combining any of the above methods to satisfy the requirements of the strategy. 4.5.3 The Council will in reaching agreements under Section 96 of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 (as amended) have due regard to the Housing Strategy and the Development Plan objectives including specific objectives in respect of different areas and agreements entered into under the provisions of the Act.
4.5.4 Where binding arrangements have already been entered into in relation to particular sites for the provision of Social/Affordable housing prior to the adoption of this Strategy these arrangements shall be acknowledged as being in full satisfaction of requirements for those sites under the Strategy.
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