Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council - Joint Draft Housing Strategy 2009-2015

 
Galway County Council and Ballinasloe
                       Town Council
               Joint Draft Housing Strategy 2009-2015

                          Comhairle Chontae na Gaillimhe
                                           October 2008
Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town
Council
Joint Draft Housing Strategy 2009-2015

Project No: 139141
June 2008

8 Windsor Place
Dublin 2
Ireland
Telephone: 01 669 0820
Fax: 01 669 0827
Email : Info@cbuchanan.ie

Prepared by:                                                          Approved by:

____________________________________________                          ____________________________________________
thomas.maguire/ryan.emmett                                            alice.charles

Status: Draft                                Issue no: 2                                  Date: 10 June 2008

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Contents                                                  Page

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                          I
1.    INTRODUCTION                                         3
2.    HOUSING DEMAND                                       5
2.1   Introduction                                         5
2.2   Projected Household Formation Figures                5
2.3   Disposable Income Projections                        6
2.4   House Price Projections                              8
2.5   Distribution of Residential Property Values          9
2.6   Affordability Analysis                              11
APPENDIX                                                  14
"Click here to enter text for Appendix 2"                 24

Tables                                                    Page

Table 1.1:   Projected Population and Households Galway
             County under preferred scenario 2009-2015     6
Table 1.2:   Summary of Projected Population outcomes      6
Table 1.3: Average Disposable Household Income, Galway and
             State 2000-2005                               7
Table 1.4:   Forecast House Price Inflation to 2015        9
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Executive Summary
Colin Buchanan (CB) have been appointed by Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town
Council to prepare the Housing Strategy for both housing authorities in line with the ongoing
process leading to the adoption of a new County Development Plan for the period 2009-
2015.

The principal findings to emerge from the analysis presented in this Draft Housing Strategy
are as follows:
The population of Galway County Council’s functioning area is projected to rise from the
159,256 recorded in Census year 2006 to 168,646 in 2009 and 190,433 by 2015. Overall the
projection envisages a total County population increase of 31,177 from 2006 to 2015.
A total of 16,420 new households are expected to be formed in County Galway during the
2009-2015 period. Of this figure 8,818 new households are expected to be housed on
residentially zoned lands.
The Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council housing Waiting Lists totals 885
households (As of 2005 – DoEHLG Housing Needs Assessment data). This figure
represents all households assessed as eligible for social housing support by both housing
authorities. 42% of the above figure relates to single person households.
A further list of c.550 applicants are registered with both housing authorities as eligible for
and actively seeking affordable housing. 25 of these applicants have expressed a
preference to be considered only for Part V affordable housing in privately built
developments where available.
Over the period of this strategy 17.7% of land zoned for residential or for a mix of residential
and other uses may be reserved (alternative arrangements may be enacted in lieu of this
reserve) to meet the accumulated and prospective need for social and affordable housing
within the County. As far as possible the local authorities will address this need while
maintaining an emphasis on sustainable development.
Galway County has been particularly affected by issues related to housing affordability over
the previous Housing Strategy period. This is due to its below average per-capita disposable
income level, rising number of household formations and other demand side factors driving
house price inflation. Recent adjustments in house prices, coupled with observed actual
growth in household income figures has led somewhat to a reduction in the observed
‘affordability gap’ for housing on the open market.
The availability of zoned land is not expected to act as a constraint over the course of the
upcoming Development Plan.
The ultimate allowable figure of 17.7% provision of social and affordable housing (or
alternative agreements drawn up by developers and the Local Authorities) as calculated
using the methodology laid out in the Department of Environment, Heritage and Local
Government (DoEHLG) Model Housing Strategy Guide 2000, will remain in place regarding
Local Authority interaction with the private house building sector.
The allocation between social and affordable housing will be determined on a case-by-case
basis, depending on the identified social and affordable needs of an area within which any
given development is taking place and the specific features of that development.
Under Section 15 of the Planning and Development Act 2000 the Manager must prepare a
report for the elected members two years after the adoption of a development plan which
shall include a review of the progress achieved in securing the objectives of the plan. This
shall include progress made in implementing the housing strategy. Where the report
indicates that new or revised housing needs have been identified, the Manager may
recommend that the Housing Strategy be adjusted and that the development plan be varied
accordingly. The Manager may also bring such a report to the members if he or she
considers that there has been a change in the housing market or in the regulations made by

                                                                                                   i
the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government under the Act that
significantly affects the housing strategy.

                                                                                     ii
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1.           Introduction

1.1.1        Part V of the Planning and Development Act 2000 (the Act) requires that
             housing strategies be drawn up by planning authorities and integrated into their
             development plans. The strategy is to have regard to the proper planning and
             sustainable development of an area and will be concerned with the overall
             supply of housing within the administrative area of the Local Authority.
1.1.2        The Act states that the needs for social and affordable housing shall be a
             material planning consideration which must be taken into account in formulating
             development plan policies, preparing the housing strategy and deciding on
             planning applications.
1.1.3        The Act places a statutory obligation on the Planning Authority to ensure that
             sufficient land is zoned for housing in its development plan to meet the
             projected housing requirement over the period of the plan and to ensure that
             shortage will not arise.
1.1.4        The housing strategy shall:

             A. Include an estimate of, and provision for, the existing need and the likely
                future need for housing in the area covered by the development plan. The
                Planning Authority shall ensure that sufficient and suitable land is zoned in
                its development plan for residential use (or for a mixture of residential and
                other uses), to meet the requirements of the housing strategy and to ensure
                that a scarcity of such land does not occur at any time during the period of
                the development plan.

             B. Take into account the need to ensure that housing is available for persons
                who have different levels of income and in particular for those in need of
                social or affordable housing in the area. A housing strategy shall therefore
                provide that as a general policy a specified percentage, not being more
                than 20% of the land zoned in the development plan for residential use, or
                for a mixture of residential and other uses, shall be reserved for social
                and/or affordable housing.

             C. Ensure that a mixture of house types and sizes is developed to reasonably
                match the requirements of the different categories of households, as may
                be determined by the Planning Authority, including the special requirements
                of elderly persons and persons with disabilities.

             D. Counteract undue segregation in housing between persons of different
                social backgrounds. The Planning Authority may indicate in respect of any
                residential area that there is no requirement for social/affordable housing in
                respect of that area, or that a lower percentage than that specified in the
                housing strategy may instead be required.

1.1.5        The development plan must be amended if necessary to incorporate the
             housing strategy and shall include objectives to secure the implementation of
             the strategy, including objectives requiring that a specified percentage of lands
             zoned for residential development be made available for social and affordable
             housing. A Planning Authority or An Bord Pleanála on appeal may include a
             condition on a grant of permission requiring the applicant to enter into an
             agreement regarding the provision of social housing.
1.1.6        The Manager must prepare a report for the elected members two years after the
             adoption of a development plan, which shall include a review of the progress

                                                                                                 3
achieved in securing the objectives of the plan. This shall include progress
        made in implementing the housing strategy. Where the report indicates that new
        or revised housing needs have been identified, the Manager may recommend
        that the housing strategy be adjusted and that the development plan be varied
        accordingly. The Manager may also bring such a report to the members if he or
        she considers that there has been a change in the housing market or in the
        regulations made by the Minister for the Environment under the Act that
        significantly affects the housing strategy.
1.1.7   The current Galway County Development Plan was adopted in 2003. The
        making of a new development plan is underway and a Draft Development Plan
        will be published in 2008.
1.1.8   A housing strategy may be prepared jointly by two or more Planning Authorities.
        The housing strategy for the county (not including the administrative area of
        Galway City Council) is being prepared jointly by Galway County Council and
        Ballinasloe Town Council. In the preparation of the housing strategy regard was
        had to the Model Housing Strategy and Step-by-Step Guide issued by the
        Department of Environment and Local Government (DoEHLG) as part of the
        Housing Supply Guidelines (December 2000).
1.1.9   Galway County Council and Ballinasloe Town Council will seek submissions
        from a variety of stakeholders prior to the preparation of the final draft of this
        strategy that will be adopted concurrently with the new County Development
        Plan.
2.          Housing demand
2.1     Introduction
2.1.1   In order to estimate demand for housing over the development plan period 2009-
        2015 we need to determine how Galway’s population is expected to grow over the
        next decade. Part of this exercise involves reviewing existing population projections
        contained in data prepared by the National Spatial Strategy (NSS), Central Statistics
        Office (CSO) and Department of Environment, Heritage and Local Government
        (DoEHLG).
2.1.2   A review of current projections and the rationale for developing a preferred
        population scenario for Galway County is contained in the Appendix A. Table 2.1
        below contains a summary of the chosen population forecast to 2015.
        Table 2.1: Preferred Population Scenario: County Galway 2009-2015

                                           Projected Population
            2007                                   161,595
            2008                                   165,120
            2009                                   168,646
            2010                                   172,172
            2011                                   175,697
            2012                                   179,381
            2013                                   183,065
            2014                                   186,749
            2015                                   190,433
2.1.3   This section presents forecasts based upon a median projected population growth
        figure correlated with statistical information available from central government
        sources on household size and average per capita income.
2.1.4   An estimate of the number of households for the period 2009-2015 likely to
        experience difficulty in purchasing housing on the open market is established via the
        interpretation of this baseline data.

2.2     Projected Household Formation Figures
2.2.1   Based on the population projection set out above we can estimate overall household
        formation in Galway by dividing forecast population by average household size.
2.2.2   In line with the national trend, household size in the County has declined over recent
        decades and this is assumed to continue from the start of the projections in 2006
        and throughout the period covered by the Housing Strategy to 2015.
2.2.3   Household size in Galway has declined on average by 0.04 persons per year since
        1991 to an estimated 2.9 heads per household in 2006. It is assumed this rate of
                                                     1
        decline continues year on year as per DoEHLG and CSO projections. This
        observed trend predicts an average county household of 2.54 persons in 2015.
2.2.4   Table 2.2 summarises population and additional households for the County for the
        preferred central population scenario.

            1
                Residential Density Guidelines for Planning Authorities 1999.
Table 2.2:      Projected Population and Households Galway County under
                              preferred scenario 2009-2015

              Year                 Population       Average         Household      Additional
                                   (Preferred     Household          Numbers      Households
                                    Scenario)          Size

              2006 (census           159,256              2.9           54,916
              figures)
              2007                   161,595             2.86           56,502          1,586
              2008                   165,120             2.82           58,553          2,052
              2009                   168,646             2.78           60,664          2,111
              2010                   172,172             2.74           62,836          2,172
              2011                   175,697              2.7           65,073          2,237
              2012                   179,381             2.66           67,437          2,363
              2013                   183,065             2.62           69,872          2,436
              2014                   186,749             2.58           72,383          2,511
              2015                   190,433             2.54           74,974          2,590

2.2.5     Population in Galway County is projected to rise from the 159,256 recorded in
          Census year 2006 to 168,646 in 2009 and 190,433 by 2015. Overall the projection
          envisages a total County population increase of 31,177 from 2006 to 2015.
2.2.6     Using the assumption of continued decline in average household size this gives a
          projected rise in population of 25,313 and number of new households formed over
          the development plan period 2009 to 2015 of 16,420. Table 2.3 provides a summary
          of these results

              Table 2.3:      Summary of Projected Population outcomes

        Population Scenario            Change: Galway County 2009-2015
                                      Population        Additional Households
        Central- Preferred              25,313                       16,420

2.3       Disposable Income Projections

2.3.1         Disposable income is the amount of income after tax is deducted that is
              available for spending and saving. The average disposable household income
              for Galway County is derived from CSO regional income statistics; the latest
              year for which data is available is 2005.
2.3.2         A short profile of Galway’s economy and performance as a background to
              household incomes relative to the State is provided in the Appendix B.
2.3.3         Galway’s average household income as a proportion of the State level declined
              in 2005 to 96% from 97.7%. The County Income numbers can be volatile due to
              the sample size. However, given that this is the best indication for sub-regional
              household incomes from official sources, we have taken an average of the
              proportions between 2000 and 2005. On the basis of this calculation, Galway’s
disposable household income as a proportion of State household income is
           96.1% as summarised in table 2.4.
           Table 2.4: Average Disposable Household Income, Galway and State 2000-
                        2005

                                      2000       2001       2002        2003        2004       2005
           Galway                    €13,463    €15,069    €16,390     €17,520     €18,462    €19,355
           State                     €13,977    €15,841    €17,088     €18,295     €18,906    €20,164
           Galway share of State
                                       96.3       95.1       95.9           95.8    97.7         96.0
           %
           Average share 2000-
                                                                    96.1%
           05

2.3.4      In order to estimate the affordability of housing in the County, information on the
           distribution of household income is required. This has been estimated using a
           combination of sources from CSO Household Budget and Regional Income
           Surveys.
2.3.5      The CSO figures suggest household income in Ireland is distributed fairly
           evenly from the lowest to the highest income bracket, although regional figures
           show considerable variation with a notably higher proportion of households at
           the lower end of the income distribution.
2.3.6      Without more local data it is difficult to determine whether household income in
           Galway County resembles the national picture or is more aligned with regional
           figures. Assuming that it lies somewhere between the two we have taken a
           simple average of the national and regional statistics as a proxy measurement
           for Galway. This is displayed in table 2.5
2.3.7      Average incomes for the State are split into ten income segments or ‘deciles’.
           The average income within each of these deciles are then factored by 96.1% to
           derive an estimate of average weekly income levels in Galway County for 2005.

Table 2.5. Estimated Distribution of Household Income; State and Galway County

Income    Average          Households      Average      County      Av. Annual
Decile    Income, € Per in        each     National     Galway      Disposable
          Week, 2005- Category %           Annual       Deflator    Income,
          upper                            Disposable               Galway 2005
          threshold                        Income (€)               (€)
1
2.3.8        The figures are then inflated annually for the year’s 2006 to 2015 using average
                      disposable household income actual and forecast growth rates from the
                      Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
         2.3.9        The economic projections within the ESRI Medium Term Review consist of high
                      growth and low growth projections. We have applied the ESRI’s estimates for
                      income growth for 2007 and 2008. However, given the economic outlook in the
                      context of current adjustments in the world economy, particularly in the USA, we
                      have taken an average of the two scenarios for per annum growth in personal
                      disposable income from 2009 to 2015. Income distribution is assumed to remain
                      unchanged over the projection period.
         2.3.10       Table 2.6 sets out our assumptions for per annum income growth and how
                      upper limits for each income decile are expected to grow over the period of the
                      Housing Strategy.

         Table 2.6. Projected Distribution of Households by Disposable Income 2007-2015

Year     2007       2008        2009       2010        2011        2012        2013        2014         2015
growth
% p.a.     6.6         5.2         4.5        6.5         6.3         6.2         6.2         6.2          6.2
 st
1
decile   €9,130     €9,605      €10,037    €10,690     €11,362     €12,070     €12,822     €13,621      €14,470
 nd
2
decile   €14,049    €14,780     €15,444    €16,449     €17,484     €18,573     €19,731     €20,960      €22,266
 rd
3
decile   €20,623    €21,695     €22,670    €24,146     €25,664     €27,264     €28,963     €30,767      €32,685
 th
4
decile   €28,041    €29,499     €30,825    €32,831     €34,896     €37,071     €39,381     €41,835      €44,442
 th
5
decile   €36,081    €37,957     €39,663    €42,245     €44,902     €47,700     €50,672     €53,830      €57,184
 th
6
decile   €44,765    €47,092     €49,209    €52,412     €55,709     €59,180     €62,868     €66,786      €70,947
 th
7
decile   €54,602    €57,442     €60,024    €63,931     €67,952     €72,186     €76,684     €81,463      €86,539
 th
8
decile   €67,046    €70,533     €73,703    €78,501     €83,438     €88,637     €94,161     €100,028     €106,261
 th
9
decile   €81,587    €85,830     €89,688    €95,526     €101,534    €107,861    €114,583    €121,723     €129,308
10th
decile   €128,174   €134,839    €140,900   €150,071    €159,510    €169,450    €180,009    €191,226     €203,142

         2.4       House Price Projections
         2.4.1        The DoEHLG circular (HS 4/00) of 13th December 2000 recommended that;
                      “planning authorities should construct their own forecasts of price trends in the
                      light of experience and local circumstances as potentially there will be
                      significant variations in house price levels and trends between different areas of
                      the country (and possibly within individual counties) and between different
                      segments of the market”
         2.4.2        Table 2.7 summarises average prices for all houses including apartments in
                      County Galway and the annual change between 2001 and 2007.
Table 2.7 House Price Trends, County Galway to 2007

              Year               Average House Price, €             Annual % Change
                   2000                     163,824
                   2001                     171,161                             4.5
                   2002                     187,607                             9.6
                   2003                     223,388                            19.1
                   2004                     242,218                             8.4
                   2005                     274,905                            13.5
                   2006                     286,176                             4.1
                2007Q1-Q3                   303,544                             6.1
            Source: DoEHLG.

2.4.3       A provisional house price forecast for County Galway for 2008 to 2015 is shown
            in Table 2.8. Given current volatility in the Irish housing market and an absence
            of medium and long term house price projections in Ireland we have assumed
            residential property values to remain flat in 2008 and 2009 and rise 3% per
            annum thereafter.
            Table 2.8:     Galway County Forecast House Price Inflation to 2015

                                       Year           House Price
                                                     Growth, Annual
                                                     change %
                                       2008                 0
                                       2009                 0
                                       2010                 3
                                       2011                 3
                                       2012                 3
                                       2013                 3
                                       2014                 3
                                       2015                 3

2.5     Distribution of Residential Property Values
2.5.1 The Department of Heritage, Environment and Local Government (DoEHLG) collects
      information on the distribution of new and existing housing values by County, based
      on sales records. The latest data for Galway County is 2006 and is displayed in Table
      2.9. The figures indicate that approximately 55% of all housing was sold for a
      minimum €200,000 and a maximum €350,000 in 2006, with less than 1% of stock
      selling for below €100,000.

2.5.2 Taking into account the distribution of housing stock value and house price
      fluctuations since 2006 we have assumed that the current threshold for the
      affordability of a new house on the open market is €175,000. This will be the upper
      limit for the lowest house price band.
Table 2.9. Distribution of the Housing Stock Value, Galway County

                              Range     House Price Band        % Share
                                        to Q3, 2007 (€)
                              1         Up to €100K                     0.8%
                              2         €100K to €150K                   7.9%
                              3         €150K to €200K                  19.3%
                              4         €200K to €250K                  24.0%
                              5         €250K to €300K                  19.6%
                              6         €300K to €350K                  11.3%
                              7         €350K to €400K                   6.1%
                              8         €400K to €450K                   3.2%
                              9         €450K to €500K                   3.8%
                              10        €500K +                         4.1%
                                        TOTAL                          100.0%
                                Source: DoEHLG
       2.5.3 Assuming the price of new housing is distributed evenly between the €50k bands as
             shown in table 2.9 we estimate that just over 18% of housing stock will be available at
             or below €175k in 2008.
       2.5.4 The next step is to apply the projected changes for house prices to the upper limit of
             housing affordability from 2008 to 2015 to compare with the timeline of the forthcoming
             Development Plan. These figures are displayed in Table 2.10. This calculation
             enables us to project how many new houses built for each year are likely to fall within
             an affordable price range.
       Table 2.10: How Price Changes – Upper Limit of Most Affordable Housing 2008-2015

Year                 2008       2009       2010       2011       2012       2013       2014      2015
Forecast House
Prices Change         0%           0%       3%         3%         3%         3%        3%         3%
Upper Limit of
Lowest Price
Band €             175,000    175,000 180,250       185,658 191,227 196,964          202,873 208,959

       2.5.5 Based on figures to September 2007 (source: DoEHLG Quarterly Housing Statistics,
             Q3 2007) it is estimated that the total number of housing completions (including
             private, public and voluntary sectors) in Galway for 2007 at approximately 3,334. New
             build housing in Galway for each year from 2008 to 2014 is assumed to be an average
             of that built annually for the past six years (2002 to 2007), giving a total of 3,369 units
             per annum.
       2.5.6 The distribution of the housing stock value is then applied across the house building
             figures for each year to 2015. Table 2.11 estimates how many houses in each price
             band will be built for each year to 2015.
Table 2.11. Projected Housing Units Completions by Price Range, Galway County
2007 to 2015

        Price Range        2007     2008         2009       2010     2011     2012     2013    2014     2015
        €
        1                   27          27            27      27       27       27      27       27      27
        2                  264         266           266     266      266      266     266      266     266
        3                  642         649           649     649      649      649     649      649     649
        4                  799         808           808     808      808      808     808      808     808
        5                  653         660           660     660      660      660     660      660     660
        6                  377         381           381     381      381      381     381      381     381
        7                  205         207           207     207      207      207     207      207     207
        8                  107         108           108     108      108      108     108      108     108
        9                  128         129           129     129      129      129     129      129     129
        10                 136         137           137     137      137      137     137      137     137
        TOTAL
                           3,334       3,369     3,369      3,369    3,369    3,369    3,369   3,369    3,369

2.6       Affordability Analysis
2.6.1       Drawing on the established estimated distribution of;
                          Household disposable income and
                          Distribution of housing stock value
2.6.2       The next stage is to determine housing affordability for future households in each
            income band over the Development Plan period 2009-2015.
2.6.3       Based on the calculations for income distribution in Galway County presented in
            Table 2.5 and the projections for household formation under the preferred
            population scenario shown in Table 2.2, Table 2.12 below shows how new
            households are expected to be distributed across the income range from 2009 to
            2015.
                Table 2.12:        Additional Households to 2015 under Preferred Population
                                   Scenario

              Year                 %       2009        2010        2011      2012     2013     2014     2015
               st
              1 decile
                               12.1%           256         263      271       286      295      304      314
                 nd
              2 decile
                               11.9%           251         258      266       280      289      298      307
                 rd
              3 decile
                               11.9%           250         258      265       280      289      298      307
                 th
              4 decile
                               10.7%           226         232      239       253      260      268      277
                 th
              5 decile
                                   9.9%        209         215      222       234      241      249      257
                 th
              6 decile
                               10.6%           224         230      237       250      258      266      274
                 th
              7 decile
                                   9.1%        191         197      203       214      221      228      235
                 th
              8 decile
                                   8.5%        179         184      190       200      207      213      220
                 th
              9 decile
                                   8.2%        174         179      184       195      201      207      213
                  th
              10
              decile               7.2%        152         156      161       170      175      181      186
              TOTAL*
                             100% 2,111* 2,172*                    2,237*    2,363*   2,436*   2,511*   2,590*
                *figures may not sum due to rounding
2.6.4    The projections for household income to 2015 and the annuity formula as set out
         in the DoEHLG Model Housing Strategy are now used to work out the maximum
         affordable house price for households for each of the income deciles in Table
         2.12.
2.6.5    The annuity formula for calculating affordability is the standard one applied in the
         Model Housing Strategy document as follows:

          90% H Price = 35% * Monthly Income * [ 1 – (1 + APR/12) –25 years * 12]
          2.6.6         / [ APR/12 ]

2.6.7    The key variables used in the annuity formula are income, interest rates, loan to
         value ratio and the lifetime of the mortgage loan.
2.6.8    As guided by the Model Strategy we have assumed an average interest rate of
         5.5% per annum, loan to value ratio of 90% and mortgage lifetime of 25 years.
         These variables are dictated by the provisions of the model housing strategy
         framed in 2000 and could potentially be revised by the DoEHLG during the
         Development Plan period.
2.6.9    The total affordable housing requirement for each year is determined by the total
         number of households whose maximum affordable house price falls below the
         upper limit for the lowest price house band. This is calculated for the preferred
         population scenario and is displayed in Table 2.13.
2.6.10   The actual shortfall in affordable housing provision for each year is the total
         demand for affordable housing from new household formations, net of the
         number of homes expected to be built in the open market in the lowest price
         band. In Table 2.13 this is indicated in the column ‘AH Requirement’.
2.6.11   Affordable housing in this calculation relates to the quantum of new households
         unable to purchase their own home at predicted open market values and includes
         all categories of identified non-open market housing need. It is distinct from local
         authority, housing association, voluntary sector and other providers of housing
         which is usually not available on the open market and hence has not been
         included within our calculations of affordability and affordable housing
         requirement.
Table 2.13 Affordable Housing Requirement and Likely Shortfall under
                       Central Preferred Population Scenario to 2015

Year             2009        2010        2011         2012        2013        2014         2015           TOTAL*
                                                                                                                   2
Total    Units   3,369       3,369       3,369        3,369       3,369       3,369        3,369          23,583
Built Forecast
Total AH
Requirement       1,076       1,079        1,085       1,120       1,128        1,132        1,137         7,758
Expected
Build-
Affordable         618         618          618         618         618          618          618          4,325
AH Shortfall       458         461          468         502         510          514          519          3,433
Share of
Forecast New
Build              13.7%    13.7%     13.9%   14.9%                 15.1%       15.3%         15.4%         n/a
         *figures may not sum due to rounding

2.6.12     The preferred population scenario envisages an estimated affordable housing
           shortfall of 458 and 467 homes in the first two years of the Housing Strategy
           and then an average of 504 homes for the remaining years 2011 to 2015. This
           is net of what is projected to be built at prices below the upper limit of the most
           affordable housing. A steady rise in the affordable housing requirement occurs
           over the period after 2011 as household formation grows. Over the whole
           period, a total affordable housing shortfall of 3,433 is envisaged.
2.6.13     In the first four years of the Strategy to 2012, all households in the lower 4
           income deciles are expected to require affordable housing assistance. In
           addition the number of households from the fifth income decile are 94 in 2009,
           69 households in 2010, 45 households in 2011 and 21 households in 2012. In
           years 2013 to 2015 all households in the bottom three income deciles are
           expected to require affordable housing, plus from the fourth decile: 255
           households in 2013, 232 in 2014 and 209 in 2015.

           2
            Total housing completion forecasts will diverge from household formation predictions due to
           second homes, vacant units and variations in baseline forecast data.
3.                 Housing Supply
3.1            Introduction
3.1.1          This section presents an overview of housing activity in the years applicable to
               the previous Housing Strategy where whole year housing data is available. At
               the time of compiling this strategy full year housing supply statistics for 2007 are
               not yet available.
3.1.2          Considering the exceptional level of housing construction activity in 2007 it is
               assumed that the use of housing statistics for 2007 may potentially skew any
               predictive housing data presented for the forthcoming Development Plan period.
3.1.3          Forecasted housing supply figures presented for the period 2009-2015 in this
               section are therefore an average of observed housing activity across all sectors
               during the period 2002-2006.

3.2            Housing Supply 2002-2006

3.2.1          Table 3.1 compares the predicted household formation figures presented in the
               2001 Housing Strategy to actual housing completion statistics for the county
               obtained from the DoEHLG database. The ‘Other Housing Supply’ column
               relates to units provided directly by the public and voluntary housing sectors.
               Table 4.1:        Forecast Housing Demand and Actual Supply 2002-2006

        Year          Predicted     Demand      Actual     Supply       Private Housing      Other Housing
                      2001           Strategy   (Units)                 Supply               Supply
                      (Units/New Households)
        2002                       1,353                   2,265                  2075                190
        2003                       1,353                   3,170                  3042                128
        2004                       1,353                   3,392                  3199                193
        2005                       1,353                   3,537                  3347                190
        2006                       1,353                   4,512                  4396                116
        TOTAL                      6,765                   16,876                 16,059              817

3.2.2          The outstripping of predicted demand by actual supply mirrors other housing
               strategies prepared during the same time period and the nationwide trend of
               accelerated housing output. The total figures for the period amount to a 249%
               surpassing of the 2001 Housing Strategy new household formation predictions
               by housing construction.
3.2.3          For the intercensal period 2002-2006 an increase in household numbers for the
               county of 8,055 was recorded by the CSO. The discrepancy in housing supply
               figures and new household formation data for the period may be explained by;
                  •     Vacant Housing and holiday homes (recorded as 20.1% of all housing
                        units in the county for census 2006)
                  •     Differences in time period between both data sets compilation (ie post-
                                                                                     th      st
                        census night housing unit completions for the period April 24 2006-31
                        December 2006)
                  •     Obsolescence/ replacement of existing housing
•   Person per household figures decreasing faster than national projections-
              comparing growth in the number of households with actual population
              increase it is observed that the person per household figure in new
              households formed during he period 2002-2006 is 1.96, significantly
              lower than national predictions.
3.2.4   This increase in housing activity and household formation is reflected in the
        larger quantum of both predicted demand and predicted housing supply for this
        strategy compared to the previous strategy. This overall intensification of
        activity in the housing market reflects the population and economic growth of
        the country as a whole for the period in question.

4.2     Provision of Social and Affordable Housing
3.2.5   The ‘Other Housing supply’ column as shown in Table 4.1 is indicative of the
        new units provided by the voluntary/co-operative sector and Galway’s Multi–
        Annual Social Housing Programme. Table 3.2 provides a year-by-year
        breakdown of the types of social housing provision provided by the local
        authorities during the previous Housing Strategy period.

        Table 3.2:    New Units- Multi Annual Social Housing Programme

                                 Year             New         Direct
                                                  Build       Purchase
                                                              From Market
                                 2002                 103              22
                                 2003                 85               14
                                 2004                 93               26
                                 2005                 129              25
                                 2006                 79               50
                                 Total                489                137

3.2.6   This amounts to a total provision for the period from this programme of 626 new
        homes for applicants on the local authority housing list from these specific
        initiatives.

3.2.7   In addition to local authority housing provision, 328 new units of housing were
        completed by the voluntary and cooperative housing sector under the Capital
        Assistance Scheme for the period 2002-2006.
Table4.3: New Units- Voluntary and Cooperative Housing Sector 2002-
                             2006

                                    Year                 New
                                                         Build
                                    2002                 87
                                    2003                 43
                                    2004                 100
                                    2005                 61
                                    2006                 37
                                    Total                328

3.2.8           Demand for affordable housing is most readily identified in areas adjacent to
                Galway city. Most recent figures for applications to be considered for affordable
                housing reveal a figure of c.550 as assessed as being eligible for affordable
                housing initiatives.

3.2.9           Table 3.4 sets out the variety and number of initiatives instigated by both
                housing authorities in this regard for the period 2002-2006
                Table 3.4:    Affordable Housing Initiatives 2002-2006

        Year     Shared           1999 Affordable    Mortgage          Houses            Houses    Sold
                 Ownership        Housing            Allowance for     Acquired          Under   Tenant
                 Loans            Scheme             tenants to buy    under Part V      Purchase
                                                     private housing   agreements        Scheme
        2002                 8                 36                 3               0                 46
        2003                 10                22                 11              0                 67
        2004                 15                38                 12              5                 76
        2005                 6                 36                 8               11                65
        2006                 3                 45                 6               11                52
        Total                42                177                40                27              306

3.2.10          In total 592 households have been assisted on the path to home ownership by
                Galway local authorities during the course of the previous strategy under the
                various affordable housing initiatives outlined above.
3.2.11          Figures available from the DoEHLG indicate a total Social and Affordable
                Housing provision made available (excluding Houses sold by the Local
                Authorities under the Tenant Purchase Scheme) facilitating 1,713 households
                for the period 2002-2006. Table 3.5 presents the total quantitative figures
                available pertaining to Social and Affordable housing provision over the course
                of the previous strategy period.
Table 3.5. Total Social and Affordable Housing Provision,                            Galway
    County/Ballinasloe Town Council Authorities 2002-2006 (units).

Row      Year                     2002               2003     2004     2005     2006     Total
1        Authorised Starts for           165           165     184       0       169      683
         Local Authority
         Housing (Number)
2       Actual Starts for Local                96     103      135      209      122      665
        Authority Housing
        (Number)
3       Local Authority New                    103    85       93       129      79       489
        Build (Number)
4       Local Authority                        22     14       26       25       50       137
        Acquisitions (Number)
5       Voluntary Housing                      87     43       100      61       37       328
        New Build (Number)
6       Extensions and                         22     14       26       20       32       114
        Improvements in Lieu
        of Local Authority
        Housing (Number)
7       Houses Let in year                     57     66       81       75       80       359
        from Existing Local
        Authority Dwellings
        (Number)
8       Mortgage Allowance               3            11       12           8        6     40
        for Local Authority
        Tenants to buy Private
        Houses (Number)
9       Shared Ownership                 8            10       15           6        3     42
        Affordable Housing
        Scheme Transactions
        Completed (Number)
10      Houses Provided                  36           22       38       36       45       177
        under the 1999
        Affordable Housing
        Scheme (Number)
11      Affordable Houses                0                0        5    11       11        27
        Acquired under Part V
        of Planning and
        Development Acts
        2000-2006 (Number)
12      Households Assisted       291                222      326      310      278      1427
        through Social
        Housing Measures
        (Number = Total Rows
        3 to 7)
13      Households Assisted       47                 43       70       61       65       286
        through Affordable
        Housing Measures
        (Number = Total Rows
        8 to 11)
14      Households Assisted       338                265      396      371      343      1713
        through Social and
        Affordable Housing
        Measures (Number=
        Total Rows 12 + 13)
3.3       Overall Housing Supply 2009-2015

3.3.1     This section of the housing strategy deals with factors that influence housing
          supply and addresses the planning and management of the physical
          environment in County Galway. An important consideration in the equation is
          the emphasis on the application of principles of sustainable development within
          the County.
3.3.2     In recent years, Central Government policies on sustainable development have
          been aimed at reducing the demand for travel and the promotion of higher
          residential densities. The underlying principles seek to:
                Reduce the need for the development of greenfield sites
                Limit urban sprawl and ribbon development
                Ensure more economic use of existing infrastructure
                Enhance access to existing services and facilities
                Create more sustainable commuting patterns
3.3.3     Decreasing household size and increases in development pressure in the
          County require a more efficient and sustainable use of serviced land. This
          requires an increase in the density of residential developments throughout the
          County especially close to public transport routes and on serviced land. The
          need for increased housing densities however, needs to be qualified by the
          application of vigorous settlement strategies and objectives that acknowledge
          the imperative of improved public transport linkages and sensitive, appropriate
          design guidance to govern any proposed development beyond crude
          quantitative criteria.

3.4       Zoned Lands
3.4.1     Part V of the Planning and Development Act 2000 only applies to zoned land. At
          present under the various County Local Area-specific plans there are 11
          settlements in the County that are covered by land-use zoning plans and
          therefore contain residential zonings.
3.4.2     As of June 30, 2006 there were 582 hectares of residentially zoned, serviced
          land available across the county.
         Table 3.6. Availability of Residentially Zoned Serviced Land 2002-2006

   Year                                              2002      2003     2004     2005     2006
   Serviced Land Available for Housing
   (Hectares)                                           416      233       861     319       582
   Expected Number of Housing Units from
   Serviced Land (Number)                            11,105    6,280    21,915   8,484    15,004

3.4.3     At an assumed average new build of 25.8 housing units per hectare this means
          a total potential housing supply of 15,004 new housing units.

3.4.4     Analysis of total available residentially zoned, serviced land reveals that there is
          adequate supply for the upcoming development plan period. Figures available
          from the DoEHLG reveal that on average for the period 2004-2006, 46.3% of all
          housing units provided in the county were single houses and therefore exempt
from the provisions of Part V (as amended) of the Planning and Development
        Act. This figure is derived from a shorter timeframe compared to other housing
        supply data used in this section as the DoEHLG modified their categories of
        housing type completion data from 2004 onwards and previous house type
        supply data is not directly comparable.

3.4.5   Given a predicted total level of new household formations of 16,420 for the
        period 2009-2015 (see Table 2.3) and assuming 53.7% of all new households
        will be housed in scheme/multiple housing units built on zoned land, a figure is
        derived for the period 2009-2015 of 8,818 new household formations on 342
        hectares of zoned, serviced land.        This represents a predicted land
        consumption of 59% of the observed 2006 residentially zoned land bank
        countywide.

3.4.6   This figure may also be analysed using data from Table 2.13 based on data
        including a forecast of all new housing built that includes figures for potentially
        vacant/holiday homes and a more marked decline in person per household
        figures as outlined in Section 3.1.3. This equation would predict an overall use
        of 491 hectares of zoned, serviced land for the period 2009-2015- assuming a
        completion of 3,369 units per annum at a density of 25.8 units per hectare. This
        would represent a predicted land consumption of 84% of the observed
        residentially zoned, serviced 2006 land bank countywide.

3.4.7   In addition, the extent of existing residentially zoned lands will be revised in the
        context of each individual Local Area Plan review process for each centre and
        does not preclude additional zoning in specific locations where the Planning
        Authority is satisfied that a clearly established need for such zoning is required.

3.5     Predicted Social and Affordable Housing Supply 2009-
        2015
3.5.1   Table 3.7 overleaf presents the predicted total Social and Affordable housing
        supply for both housing authorities over the upcoming Development Plan
        period. Figures are presented by category and are derived from average output
        statistics for the period 2002-2006.
3.5.2   Forecasted total Social and Affordable housing provision-provided by both
        housing authorities, the voluntary and cooperative sector and other affordable
        housing initiatives is predicted to amount to 2,870 new units for the period 2009-
        2015.
3.5.3   Forecast figures for overall housing provision available via the transfer of
        completed units by private developers to social/affordable housing providers
        may be expected to increase in the coming years as the Part V scheme begins
        to have greater effect.
3.5.4   For the purposes of compiling this section of the Housing Strategy an
        assumption is made that increased social/affordable housing provision under
        Part V direct acquisitions will occur commensurate with a reduction in affordable
        housing units under the 1999 Affordable Housing Scheme.
3.5.5   An important element of the review of the figures used to compile this strategy
        will be the regular monitoring of data as it becomes available from the DoEHLG.
Table 3.7. Estimated Total Social and Affordable Housing Provison (units) 2009-2015

Row
       Year                      2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015
1     Local Authority New        98     98     98     98     98     98     98     686
      Build
2     Local          Authority   27     27     27     27     27     27     27     189
      Acquisitions (Number)
3     Voluntary Housing New      66     66     66     66     66     66     66     462
      Build (Number)
4     Extensions          and    23     23     23     23     23     23     23     161
      Improvements in Lieu
      of      LA      Housing
      (Number)
5     Houses Let in year from    72     72     72     72     72     72     72     504
      Existing LA Dwellings
      (Number)
6     Mortgage Allowance for     8      8      8      8      8      8      8      56
      LA Tenants to buy
      Private         Houses
      (Number)
7     Shared        Ownership    8      8      8      8      8      8      8      56
      Affordable      Housing
      Scheme Transactions
      Completed (Number)
8     Houses Provided under      21     21     21     21     21     21     21     147
      the 1999 Affordable
      Housing         Scheme
      (Number)
9     Affordable      Houses     25     25     25     25     25     25     25     175
      Acquired under Part V
      of Planning Acts 2000-
      2006 (Number)
10    Households     Assisted    348    348    348    348    348    348    348    2,436
      through Social Housing
      Measures (Number =
      Total Rows 1 to 5)

11    Households    Assisted     62     62     62     62     62     62     62     434
      Through     Affordable
      Housing      Measures
      (Number = Total Rows
      6 to 9)
12    Households    Assisted     410    410    410    410    410    410    410    2,870
      Social and Affordable
      Housing      Measures
      (Total Rows 10 +11)
4.      Determination of Requirements
4.1     Demand or Need
4.1.1   The elements of housing need or demand are made up of accumulated need
        and prospective need. Accumulated need is made up from the local authority
        social housing register and those with special needs. The prospective need is a
        percentage of households from the total number of new households requiring
        affordable or social housing based on projected income profiles.
4.1.2   The supply to meet the demand is met by the local authority multi-annual
        programme over the plan period, voluntary housing organisations projected
        completions, the local authority’s affordable housing scheme and supply from
        the private sector to meet open market demand.
4.1.3   The requirement for social and affordable housing stems from two main
        sources: existing households who cannot afford to meet their housing needs
        and new households who will be unable to afford either owner occupied or
        market rented accommodation.

4.2     Existing Social Housing Need
4.2.1   The main source of information on existing households who are currently in
        housing need is the local authority social housing register. Access to social
        housing is largely determined by registration on the local authority waiting list –
        particularly given that housing associations have to take 75% of applicants from
        the local authority waiting list. It is therefore a good proxy for actual demand.
4.2.2   The total number of applicants at December 31st 2005 for both housing
        authorities was 885 households considered eligible for social housing

4.3     Prospective Need
4.3.1   The affordability analysis in section 2 presents a measure of the prospective
        quantity of new housing in County Galway for the period 2009-2015. Table 2.13
        indicates that 3,433 or 13.7% - 15.4% of new households predicted to be
        formed (under the preferred Central Population Growth Scenario) will
        experience affordability difficulties over the period 2009-2015. This is the
        prospective need only and does not take into account the accumulated need as
        reflected by the Council’s housing list.

4.4     Balancing Need and Demand

4.4.1   The percentage required from the private sector will be X% and made up as
        follows:
               The number of new households requiring social & affordable housing
               - (minus) the surplus from the planned provision of social and affordable
                housing over the accumulated need as measured by the waiting list.
               / (divided by) (Total no. of households to be formed over the period ,
                minus all houses constructed on unzoned land)

4.4.2   The total number of projected new households over the period 2009-2015 as
        detailed in Table 2.3 is 16,420. The total number of these households that will
        be housed on unzoned land and in non-Part V housing schemes is estimated
at 46.3%% of the total: i.e. 7,602- leaving a projected new household formation
        total on residentially zoned land of 8,818 for the period 2009-2015.
4.4.3      Therefore the calculation is as follows:
           A. Number of new households requiring social or affordable housing =
              3,433

           B. Estimated supply of social and affordable housing under the various
              multi- annual programmes = 2,870 (see Table 3.7).

4.4.4   The surplus available to meet social housing need is 2,870 minus 116 (25% of
        projected Voluntary/Cooperative Housing provision) minus 885 (the number of
        people on the Galway County and Ballinasloe Town Council waiting lists
        reasonably to be expected to be housed during the strategy timeframe) = 1,869
          Therefore the required percentage X is
               Numerator : 3,433 Minus 1,869 = 1,564
               Denominator :16,420 Minus 7,602 = 8,818
               X=1,564/8,818 = 17.7%
           The requirement over the lifetime of the plan is therefore 17-18%
4.4.5   Whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the step by step analysis is as
        realistic as possible, the results of the analysis should be regarded as providing
        the broad pattern of supply and demand rather than precise results.

4.5     Methods of Providing Affordable/Social Housing
4.5.1   The requirement under Part V of the Planning and Development Act, 2000 as
        amended for Social/Affordable housing in developments may be met by the
        following methods or by a combination thereof: -
               The direct provision of the required number of housing units, as
                determined in accordance with the Strategy, integrated as part of the
                overall development of a site.
               The disposal of a portion of the site to the Council which will enable the
                Council to provide the appropriate number of units thereon in
                satisfaction of the requirements of the Strategy.
               The provision of lands for social/affordable housing units to satisfy the
                overall requirements of the Strategy.
               The purchase of suitable developed units for disposal at affordable
                prices.
               Entering into public private partnership agreements with developers for
                the provision of affordable housing on Council and developer owned
                lands.

4.5.2   The developers may enter into joint agreements combining any of the above
        methods to satisfy the requirements of the strategy.
4.5.3   The Council will in reaching agreements under Section 96 of the Planning and
        Development Act, 2000 (as amended) have due regard to the Housing Strategy
        and the Development Plan objectives including specific objectives in respect of
        different areas and agreements entered into under the provisions of the Act.
4.5.4   Where binding arrangements have already been entered into in relation to
        particular sites for the provision of Social/Affordable housing prior to the
        adoption of this Strategy these arrangements shall be acknowledged as being in
        full satisfaction of requirements for those sites under the Strategy.
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