EUROPEAN CITIES REPORT 2018 - RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH - ASSESSING RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET CONDITIONS ACROSS EUROPE'S KEY CITIES - Naef Prestige
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RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH EUROPEAN CITIES REPORT 2018 ASSESSING RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET CONDITIONS ACROSS EUROPE’S KEY CITIES PAST PERFORMANCE V CHANGING TIMES DATA DASHBOARD FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES
EUROPEAN CITIES REPORT 2018 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
3.0m 5%
EUROPE, FIGURE 1
TEN-YEAR PRICE CHANGE: 3.0m 5%
2.5m
FIGURE 2
ECONOMY STRENGTHENS
FIGURE 3 4%
TEN YEARS
THE SUPPLY TAP IS TURNED OFF
EU-28 GDP GROWTH (ANNUAL % CHANGE)
CITY VS COUNTRY 2.0m EUROPEAN RESIDENTIAL COMPLETIONS (MILLION)
ON...
% CHANGE Q3 2008* 2.5m 3%
TO LATEST AVAILABLE 4% 3.1%
1.5m 2.5%
16.6% 14.2% 2.1%
2.3%
2.0%
2.2%
EDINBURGH 2.0m 1.7%
1.8%
A decade on from the global 2%
3%
financial crisis Europe’s housing -11.0% -12.2% 1.0m
0.5%
0.3%
markets look very different. 1.5m -4.3% -0.4%
75.3% 31.9% 2006
DUBLIN
The last decade saw prices LONDON 1%
2% 0.5m 2016*
slide lower, before a more 1.0m
recent recovery. In many housing 37.3% 1.7%
markets construction slowed to 31.3% 31.9%
109.2% 39.0% 0 0%
AMSTERDAM 1% 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+
a virtual halt, in some interest 0.5m BERLIN
BIRMINGHAM
rates entered negative territory, KEY
a stimulus of €2.4 trillion was
Q2 2018
CITY AVERAGE
0 0% 2.7m 1.4m
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
PRICE GROWTH
injected into the Eurozone 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+
COUNTRY AVERAGE Source: Eurostat Source: European Mortgage Federation
economy and tighter lending PRICE GROWTH 13.9% 1.1%
*Latest available data
rules were imposed. With a PARIS FIGURE 4
number of European cities now EUROPEAN RESIDENTIAL SALES PICK UP
76.6% 39.0%
firmly in recovery mode this FRANKFURT
NO. OF SALES
report delves deeper into the
data to understand where the 80.1% 69.6% 8.0m
future opportunities lie. N/A -17.5% VIENNA 7.5m
-20.0% -24.3% 7.0m
N/A 2.3%
MILAN 6.5m
LISBON N/A -17.5%
BARCELONA 6.0m
5.5m
ROME 5.0m
4.5m
-16.6% -24.3%
This report was written in August 2018 and is 4.0m
based on the assumption that an agreement 3.5m
will be reached on the UK’s withdrawal from MADRID
the EU by the UK Government and EU 3.0m
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Commission in March 2019. In the event this
does not occur our outlook and forecasts for
Source: HM Land Registry, INSEE, Federal Statistical Office of Germany, Spanish Ministry of Development, OeNB, Irish Central Statistics Office, Source: European Mortgage Federation
European residential markets will be subject
Statistics Netherlands, Statistics Portugal, Immobiliaire Italia. *Data based on 23 countries, 2016 = latest data available
to change. Q3 2008 = Lehman Brothers’ filed for bankruptcy
Of all the world regions, Europe’s housing
markets were arguably hit the hardest by
testament to how far the region has come
A last
over the decade. B BIRMINGHAM
“S OME
C EDINBURGH
COUNTRIES
D PARIS
WERE
E BERLIN
region’s economic outlook has improved.
The latest
F FRANKFURT G data show GDP growth across
That said, the region’s performance both
now and over the last decade is polarised.
cities and outline how the landscape is
changing, assessing the likely risks and
LONDON MADRID
the global financial crisis, in part because
Knight77.7% | 32.2%
Frank’s Global House | 32.2%
29.5%Price LARGELY
Index, 17.9% | 12.2%
UNAFFECTED
13.9% | 1.5% 109.2% | 38.2% 76.6% | 38.2% -16.6% | -24.3%
the EU-28 reached 2.2% in the 12 months As the map above illustrates, not only have opportunities for this diverse set of urban
in 2007/08 some of its key economies –
including the UK, Spain and Ireland – were confirms that prices across
H BARCELONA I Europe
ROME are
BY THE FINANCIAL
J MILAN K DUBLIN
CRISIS
M VIENNA
to Q2 2018 with employment, wages and
N AMSTERDAM
consumerO spending
LISBON all on an upward
most key cities outperformed their wider
national housing markets but some
residential markets.
building homes at their fastest rate on an average rate of 5.3% per WHILST AVERAGE PRICES IN
-20.0% | -24.3% N/A | -17.5% N/A | -17.5% -11.8% | -13.0% 80.1% | 69.6% 32.2% | 0.1%
rising at trajectory | 2.3%2).
N/A(figure countries were largely unaffected by the
Despite the headwinds, cities look set to
outperform as they become the hubs for
record and lending was at its peak. annum, up from a low of -4% in the final
PERFORMANCE KEY
quarter of 2009. In addition, residential
OTHERS STILL SIT BELOW However, it is not just owner-occupiers
financial crisis (Austria, Germany) whilst
average prices in others still sit below their
innovation, knowledge-sharing and creativity.
However, 2017 marked a turning point –
a year when Europe’s recovery came transactions across the region are up 21% THEIR PRE-CRISIS PEAK.” who have been buoyed by the upturn in
pre-crisis peak (Spain, Italy, Ireland).
Across the EU-28, 73% of the population
the region’s economic fortunes, cheap live in either cities, towns or suburbs. By
into focus and this improved sentiment since their
CITY low in
CITY2012
NEGATIVE according
COUNTRY to the
COUNTRY NEGATIVE
finance and rising rental demand has In this report we assess how far Europe’s 2050, the United Nations forecasts this figure
has continued into this year. European Mortgage Federation (figure 4).
meant investors are looking at residential housing markets have come. We set out will exceed 80% bringing with it significant
The fact Greece exited its €86 billion Buyer sentiment amongst owner- markets across Europe’s cities with the current and future housing market repercussions for housing affordability,
bailout programme this summer is occupiers has strengthened as the renewed interest. indicators for 14 of the region’s main transport and social infrastructure.
2 3
EUROPE’S URBAN HOUSING MARKETS IN 10 CHARTS EUROPEAN CITIES
EURO REPORT
CITIES 2018 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
The charts below provide a snapshot of how each of the 14 cities compare in relation to economic growth,
price trends, demand and supply indicators, both now and over the next 10 years.
PAST FUTURE
FIGURE 5 FIGURE 6 FIGURE 11 FIGURE 13
AVERAGE PRICE GROWTH ANNUAL % CHANGE (TO Q1 2018) HOUSEHOLD DEMAND FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH GENERATION RENT2 AS A % OF TOTAL
5-YEAR % CHANGE (2013-2018) GVA GROWTH1 % CHANGE (2018-2028) POPULATION IN 2028
10.3DRID
% 8.2%
MA BARCELONA
7%
11U.BLIN 9%
32%
D 6.4% LONDON 25.3%
BIRMINGHAM
.8% RT 3.7 8% EDINBURGH 22.7%
30%
11 NKFU PARIS% DUBLIN 19.9%
A
FR
28%
3 7% MADRID 18.6%
VIEN.5%
NA BIRMINGHAM 17.9% 0.0%
26%
26%
DAM
AMS11.9%
AMSTERDAM 16.6%
25%
25%
25%
25%
6%
TER
BERLIN 14.5%
2.3 PARIS 14.3%
23%
23%
23%
% 5%
LIS
VIENNA 13.9%
BO
N
21%
21%
BARCELONA 13.5%
RGH
EDINBU %
4% MILAN 13.1%
12.0
LISBON 11.2%
0.6 AN
MIL
3% ROME 10.5%
%
FRANKFURT 9.5%
2%
-0.6%ON ROME
LOND
14.9%
BERLIN
1%
-2.2%
0
FIGURE 7
-1%
NEW SUPPLY NEW-BUILD COMPLETIONS PER 1,000 RESIDENTS¹
21.0% 7.0%
-2%
-3%
-4%
BIRMINGHAM 0.6
AMSTERDAM 5.9
BARCELONA 3.5
FRANKFURT 3.9
EDINBURGH 3.9
EDINBURGH
AMSTERDAM
PARIS
LONDON
BERLIN
BIRMINGHAM
DUBLIN
FRANKFURT
LISBON
MILAN
ROME
MADRID
VIENNA
BARCELONA
EDINBURGH
LONDON
VIENNA
BERLIN
DUBLIN
AMSTERDAM
FRANKFURT
BIRMINGHAM
MADRID
PARIS
LISBON
MILAN
BARCELONA
ROME
LONDON 2.6
MADRID 3.2
LISBON 3.3
DUBLIN 4.5
VIENNA 2.7
BERLIN 3.4
MILAN 2.2
ROME 1.6
PARIS 1.5
FIGURE 14
FIGURE 8 FIGURE 9 FIGURE 10 HOUSEHOLD GROWTH
FINANCE ECONOMIC GROWTH AVERAGE RENTS FORECAST HOUSEHOLD GROWTH
REPRESENTATIVE INTEREST RATE BASED ON GVA GROWTH 20183 (ANNUAL % CHANGE) MONTHLY RENT € PER SQ M % CHANGE (2018-2028)
NEW RESIDENTIAL LOANS 2016²
3.26%
LONDON 28.20
14.0%
EDINBURGH 19.50
DUBLIN 19.20
2.59%
FIGURE 12
PARIS 18.00 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOMES
2.34%
2.34%
2.34%
% CHANGE (2018-2028)
BARCELONA 17.90
2.01%
2.01%
2.02%
2.02%
1.92%
1.90%
BIRMINGHAM 16.20
1.76%
1.76%
1.62%
AMSTERDAM 16.00
MADRID 15.06
35.9% 35.1% 35.2% 34.0%
35% 33.1% 32.7% 32.3%
ROME 14.00
FRANKFURT 13.30 BERLIN BIRMINGHAM EDINBURGH AMSTERDAM LONDON BARCELONA DUBLIN
MILAN 12.00
LISBON 10.60 30.9% 30.9% 29.3% 26.5% 25.9% 25.6% 21.2%
BIRMINGHAM 7.0%
EDINBURGH 12.3%
AMSTERDAM 6.4%
BARCELONA .08%
FRANKFURT 4.0%
BERLIN 9.80
LONDON 12.7%
MADRID 3.2%
BARCELONA 2.5%
DUBLIN 2.5%
BERLIN 2.4%
LISBON 2.3%
FRANKFURT 2.2%
AMSTERDAM 2.2%
EDINBURGH 2.0%
VIENNA 1.9%
BIRMINGHAM 1.8%
MILAN 1.8%
PARIS 1.8%
LONDON 1.6%
ROME 1.4%
DUBLIN 15.9%
MADRID 4.8%
LISBON 3.1%
VIENNA 9.0%
BERLIN 2.9%
MILAN 3.9%
ROME 6.7%
FRANKFURT MADRID MILAN LISBON ROME PARIS VIENNA
PARIS 5.9%
AMSTERDAM
PARIS
BERLIN
FRANKFURT
LISBON
VIENNA
BARCELONA
MADRID
MILAN
ROME
EDINBURGH
BIRMINGHAM
LONDON
DUBLIN
VIENNA 9.40
Note: Birmingham and Edinburgh: Data as at Q4 2017 based on Asking Rents
Source: National Sources, Oxford Economics, MHCLG, INE, CBS, Istat, Scottish Government, Ministerio de Fomento, Deloitte Advisory, Rightmove, European Mortgage Federation, HM Land Registry as at 13 June, CGEDD, Irish Central Statistics Office,
4
Immobiliare Italia, Registers of Scotland, VDP Research Source: Dublin Chamber, Scottish Government, Statistics Austria, United Nations, Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg. ¹ New-build completions: Vienna: private dwellings only, Frankfurt: data as at 2016. Source: Oxford Economics. ¹ Based on constant prices in local currency. ² 20-39 years. 5
² National figure. Annual weighted average based on monthly figures. Includes initial fixed period rates from 1 to 10+ years. ³ Based on constant prices in local currency, 2018 figure = Oxford Economics forecast.
26%EUROPEAN CITIES REPORT 2018 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
CHANGING TIMES
FIGURE 16 frontrunners in establishing these new are expected to boost connectivity and
WHICH CITIES HAVE SET LIMITS ON rules (figure 16). revitalise key districts.
TIGHTER HOLIDAY LETS?
MONETARY POLICY AS AT AUGUST 2018 The rate at which new homes are being Our analysis shows property values within a
Rising interest rates & removal of The investment landscape is changing. From monetary policy to 10-minute walk of Crossrail stations
delivered has also slowed. In 2006 Spain
Quantitative Easing (QE) stimulus demographics, and from property market regulations to currency alone built over 735,000 homes, fast outperformed Knight Frank’s prime central
shifts and transport plans, investors need to monitor multiple forward a decade and that figure had London index by 40% between 2008 and
the end of 2016. The new Elizabeth Line
CROSS BORDER
indicators to identify where the best opportunities lie. shrunk to 55,000. Despite government
(Crossrail 1) is expected to open in
incentives for developers to build more
INVESTMENT (UK, Germany and Ireland) net additions to September 2019 and plans for Crossrail 2
Set to rise further
Many of the factors that have defined the price inflation, is now firmly in the political stock are falling short of targets and failing are progressing.
economic landscape over the last decade; arena too. to keep pace with household growth.
low inflation, historically low interest rates
The desire amongst policymakers to Not immediately, but over time, the cost
PROPERTY = and quantitative easing are shifting as we
MORE POLITICAL monitor and control capital flowing into of finance across Europe will rise, as a
see the normalisation of monetary policy.
Rules and regulations on who can their property markets is one of the key result capital growth will moderate putting
buy what and where on the rise The European Central Bank is expected to characteristics that sets housing markets pressure on yields. We expect the
shut down its bond-buying programme by of today apart from those a decade ago. spotlight for investors will shift from
the end of 2018 and the IMF is urging capital to rental growth.
Nearly all of the 14 cities under analysis
AFFORDABILITY policymakers to “seize the moment to
have seen either a hike in property taxes, In response, some investors may chase
CONCERNS rebuild room for fiscal manoeuvre and
Ageing population, gap between restrictions on holiday lets, tighter lending greater returns by increasing their risk,
push forward with reforms to boost
prices and rents/wages rising
growth potential.”
rules or rent caps introduced over the last
decade and the volume and scale of such
either looking to emerging residential
investment markets in Southern or
“IT IS NOT ONLY THE
But aside from monetary policy, other measures is only set to increase. Eastern Europe or by broadening their ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE
SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS
Construction rates below target,
long-held fundamentals are also changing.
With incomes failing to keep pace with
asset class, from mainstream residential
to specialist markets such as retirement or
THAT IS UNPREDICTABLE,
planning process protracted
As highlighted in our latest Active Capital
Report the world is getting smaller, the
house price growth and rents accelerating
in many cities, concerns surrounding
student housing. PROPERTY, IN PARTICULAR
volume of cross border investment has affordability are mounting. Major infrastructure projects such as PRICE INFLATION, IS NOW
LOWER CAPITAL
increased by 80% in the last five years.
The latest data from Real Capital Analytics
Added to this are concerns that disruptors
Crossrail in London, the Metro extension
in Paris and Milan’s new Linea 4 are
FIRMLY IN THE POLITICAL
APPRECIATION
EXPECTED show that more than half of the investment
such as Airbnb, HomeAway and FlipKey
are expanding their market share, and
reshaping some of the region’s key cities. ARENA TOO.”
Investors will focus more on (residential and commercial) that took place Areas close to new stations, tramlines and
rental growth reducing supply for end users, be they
in Europe in 2017 involved a buyer from a Source: Knight Frank Research, Airbnb ⁴ large-scale regeneration projects will
owner-occupiers or tenants. The rules ¹ Most cities operate a license or registration system for short-term lets as
different country with intracontinental trade well as penalty fees. In some cases Airbnb collects a tourist tax on behalf of outperform their wider city markets. Below
around holiday rentals are changing as the local authority. Rules vary according to whether the entire property or we highlight a selection of the planned
in Europe reaching US$65 billion. individual rooms are being let. 2 If let more than 140 days the property is
cities set up registries or set limits on the infrastructure projects in each city which
CLAMPDOWN ON subject to business rates.
But it is not only the economic landscape number of consecutive nights a property
HOLIDAY LETS
To regulate disruptors such as and the resulting capital flows that is can be rented. Although a global trend,
Airbnb (rental days limited, unpredictable, property, in particular European cities have been amongst the INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS BY CITY
registration required) Amsterdam Barcelona Berlin Birmingham Dublin Edinburgh Frankfurt
FIGURE 15
END OF AN ERA
CITY CONNECTIVITY ECB AND UK BASE RATES VS. EUROZONE QE ASSET PURCHASES (€)
SET TO STRENGTHEN
Cities will be more synchronised
with other cities, less in common 7 90
ECB BASE RATE (LHS) UK BASE RATE (LHS) EUROZONE QE ASSET PURCHASES (€ BN) (RHS)
with wider national market New north/south metro Possible extension of metro New Berlin Brandenburg HS2, Midland Metro Extension LUAS Tram line extension New Queensferry Crossing, New third terminal
80 line, new terminal at Line 3 and the Trambaix Airport, Berlin TXL (Tech & (34km new tram network), MetroLink Edinburgh Gateway at Airport
6 Schipol Airport light rail network Innovation Park), Europacity Snowhill and wider city New Runway at Dublin Airport Rail/Tram Interchange
centre regeneration
70
5
THE KNOWLEDGE GAP 60
Lisbon London Madrid Milan Paris Rome Vienna
Cities with a high concentration of MAR 2015 QE
4 COMMENCED
universities, technology and 50
start-ups will outperform DEC
3 2018 40
QE TO
HALT
30
TRANSPORT 2
INVESTMENT = 20
New Lisbon Airport, Elizabeth Line (Crossrail), Regeneration of Centro New Metro Line 4 Metro extension ahead Fiumicino Airport upgrade, Third runway planned,
Drivers of growth (London: 1 upgrading of metro potentially Crossrail 2 and Canalejas and (including 21 stations) of 2024 Olympic Expansion of metro, aspern Vienna’s Urban
10
Crossrail, Dublin: Tram & Metro Bakerloo line extension, Castellana Norte Games, EuropaCity lines A, B and C Lakeside development
extension, Paris: Europacity) HS2, new Heathrow Runway
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: ECB , Bank of England Source: Knight Frank Research
6 7EUROPEAN CITIES REPORT 2018 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
EXPERT VIEW
Knight Frank’s teams in Frankfurt, Lisbon and Dublin share their expertise, highlighting by the lifestyle and the tax incentives for
non-habitual residents (NHRs). Introduced in QUALITY OF LIFE* EASE OF DOING RESIDENTIAL RENT
what sets their city’s housing market apart and what is going to sustain it in the long term. 2009, if employed NHRs can benefit from a
1 = GOOD BUSINESS
1 = GOOD
PER SQ M PER MONTH
(€)
flat 20% income tax rate and retirees can
receive foreign income, including pensions, FRANKFURT 7 20 14.7
What is going to sustain the market in
however, Portugal’s housing market has tax-free.
the long term? been, until recently, markedly less mature LISBON 38 29 10.6
and transparent. Like we saw in Madrid Added to this is the Golden Visa scheme -
At 23%, Frankfurt has one of the lowest and Barcelona, commercial activity led offering residency for non-EU residents in DUBLIN 34 17 19.2
home ownership rates in Europe and the the way in Lisbon and confidence has return for a €500,000 property investment.
Source: Deloitte, Mercer, World Bank, INE
city’s residency and commuter profile is filtered through into the residential market. This is popular with buyers from China, * Out of 231 cities
changing. Home to only 732,000 residents A number of factors then coincided; Brazil, South Africa, Morocco, Turkey, Iran
FRANKFURT but with 2.8 million residents within a
40-minute drive, workers used to commute
a realisation that average values were
low and highly competitive, economic
and Iraq.
city centre, these opportunities are now
running out and we are seeing a number
Are there any major redevelopment
projects or transport improvements
DOROTHEA METASCH into the city centre but live in the suburbs. What is going to sustain your market in
indicators shifted higher and tourism of new modern riverfront apartment planned in your city?
The delivery of iconic projects in the city the long term?
numbers surged. projects emerging.
Frankfurt has been centre, of a high build quality is injecting
Portugal’s tourism industry is booming, The LUAS, Dublin’s light rail, has been
lined up as a potential new life into Frankfurt’s CBD. What does €600,000 buy in the city? registering a 22% increase in arrivals in extended in the city, significantly improving
Brexit beneficiary.
Are there any major redevelopment 2017. The city centre and historic waterfront the city’s connectivity and transport
What evidence is A one-bedroom apartment in the upmarket
projects or transport improvements in particular have seen huge investment and network. The new 6-kilometre extension to
there to date of banks area of Avenida da Liberdade, a two-
planned in your city? the creation of exciting new initiatives such the Green Line opened in December 2017.
relocating and stronger bedroom apartment in the Embassy district as the transformation of an old farmer and
housing demand? of Lapa or a three-bedroom apartment in the fish market to create the Time Out market, a
Frankfurt’s transport network is exemplary, Which overseas nationalities are
residential area of Restelo. hub of restaurants, bars and start-ups. currently buying in your city?
the journey time from the CBD to the
To date we have seen announcements
from Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Nomura, airport takes just 12 minutes. There are Which area do you think is Are there any major redevelopment
DUBLIN Asian interest is strengthening, in the last
Standard Chartered and Goldman Sachs, several new developments which look set up-and-coming? RENA O’KELLY
projects or transport improvements year we have registered a high volume
all of which are planning to increase their to redefine the city’s skyline, these include:
planned in your city? of enquiries from Chinese nationals, in
FOUR and Omniturm. The main city centre areas of Liberdade,
presence in the city as banks spread their
Principe Real and Chiado remain the key What does €600,000 particular from Shanghai and Beijing,
operations throughout the European bloc. Lisbon’s new Airport is due to open in 2019
How has the new development market target for investors today, however, as as well as buyers from Hong Kong and
Such decisions are estimated to result in and the metro is earmarked to receive buy in the city?
changed in the last few years? more restaurants and bars open up in India. With the economy in robust health,
5,000 jobs, some moving from elsewhere investment of €684 million, including two
areas such as the Baixa, Alfama, Graça, there is also a large number of Irish ex-
in Europe, others newly-created roles. German purchasers still account for around new stations and a new cycle network.
Restelo and Belém these districts are on pats moving back to the country having
70% of enquiries but the city is on the the radar of investors. Added to this, is the new Nova University A top floor three-bedroom 110 sq m
What does €600,000 buy in the city? spent a number of years abroad.
radar of global buyers in a way it wasn’t site development in the centre of Lisbon.
apartment in Gandon House in the north
previously. The quality of the projects being Which overseas nationalities are What is going to sustain your market in
A one-bedroom apartment on the tenth Docklands, Dublin 1 with dual aspect and
delivered has improved immeasurably with currently buying in your city? How has the new development market the long term?
floor at FOUR Frankfurt. Located in the a terrace.
additional facilities such as a concierge and changed in the last few years?
Central Business District (CBD) the four However, for those seeking Dublin’s
gym now provided as standard. The majority of buyers are coming from The Irish economy expanded by 7.3% in
high-rise buildings, up to 228 metres in western Europe in particular from France, In the last five years the focus has been premier address of Dublin 4 it would buy
height, will deliver 500 new apartments. 2017 making it the fastest growing
the UK, Switzerland and Sweden, all drawn on refurbishing period buildings in the a 81 sq m two-bedroom apartment in a
economy in Europe for the fourth
niche development in a popular mews on
Which area do you think is consecutive year. Positive demographic
Wellington Lane.
up-and-coming? indicators are supporting this economic
Which area do you think is expansion. Unlike other cities that are
Both the CBD and the inner city district up-and-coming? forecast to see a decline, Dublin’s
of Bahnhofsviertel (literally: train station population of 20-34 year olds is forecast to
quarter) are undergoing a revival. Good
transport connections, along with new LISBON Smithfield in Dublin 7 has seen renewed
vigour from purchasers priced out of the
rise by 17% over the next decade.
How has the new development market
restaurants and galleries are attracting a ALEX KOCH DE GOOREYND Docklands and the area registered double
changed in the last few years?
trendy crowd that mix alongside the bankers digit price growth in the year to June 2018.
from the neighbouring financial district. Lisbon is buzzing but Other areas that have become popular
its emergence as a Dublin has seen the arrival of large
with purchasers are Dublin 6W and
Which top three overseas nationalities potential investment institutional landlords and publically-listed
Harold’s Cross.
are currently buying in your city? hotspot seems to have developers such as Glenveagh Properties,
been rapid. Why? In my view, Clonee is an undervalued Cairn Homes and Kennedy Wilson, these
Alongside German buyers we are seeing commuter village. It is not far from the are bringing scale to the market which
strong enquiries from UK, Chinese and Spain’s recovery has been well- very established and sought after village should help ease the lack of supply that
Middle Eastern buyers. documented in the last few years, of Castleknock. has built up in recent years.
8 9EUROPEAN CITIES REPORT 2018 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
DATA DASHBOARD
Data is now the world’s most valuable resource, below we set out the key economic, demographic and
housing market indicators needed by our clients to help make informed investment decisions.
ECONOMICS INVESTMENT
AVERAGE MONTHLY GROSS RENTAL HOME OWNERSHIP INVESTMENT VOLUMES NO. OF SHORT-TERM RENTAL
GVA GROWTH 2018¹ AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD PERSONAL DISPOSABLE REPRESENTATIVE INTEREST RATE BASED ON
RENT PER SQ M 2017 YIELD 2017 RATE1 ($) 12 MONTHS TO UNIVERSITIES LIMIT³ (NO. OF DAYS)
(ANNUAL % CHANGE) INCOME PER ANNUM 2018 (€) NEW RESIDENTIAL LOANS 2017²
(€€) Q1 20182
AMSTERDAM 22.3 4.7% 29.0% 5,646,000,000 4 60
AMSTERDAM 2.2% 45,843 2.59%
BARCELONA 17.9 5.4% 71.9% 823,000,000 11 License needed
BARCELONA 2.5% 45,578 2.01%
BERLIN 2.4% 38,753 1.76% BERLIN 9.8 4.9% 15.0% 6,336,000,000 11 90
BIRMINGHAM 1.8% 48,886 2.34% BIRMINGHAM 16.2 N/A 54.0% 1,020,000,000 6 No limit⁴
DUBLIN 2.5% 66,321 3.26% DUBLIN 19.2 5.1% 63.0% 2,529,466,900 7 No limit
EDINBURGH 2.0% 53,477 2.34% EDINBURGH 19.5 N/A 52.7% 765,000,000 5 45 (Proposed)
FRANKFURT 2.2% 52,018 1.76% FRANKFURT 13.3 4.1% 20.0% 4,394,000,000 4 42
LISBON 2.3% 37,004 1.90%
LISBON 10.6 4.6% 74.8% 1,174,000,000 8 No limit
LONDON 1.6% 73,045 2.34%
LONDON 28.2 3.7% 49.0% 17,371,000,000 33 90
MADRID 3.2% 48,803 2.01%
MADRID 15.1 5.2% 73.0% 9,423,000,000 18 No limit
MILAN 1.8% 52,844 2.02%
MILAN 12.0 4.0% 72.9% 2,375,000,000 9 No limit
PARIS 1.8% 48,863 1.62%
PARIS 18.0 4.5% 33.0% 2,514,000,000 20 120
ROME 1.4% 44,017 2.02%
VIENNA 1.9% 49,328 1.92% ROME 14.0 4.8% 72.9% 1,295,000,000 11 No limit
VIENNA 9.4 2.8% 23.0% 2,965,000,000 8 No limit
Sources: Oxford Economics, Eurostat, European Mortgage Federation, Statistical Office of Brandenburg.
All data corresponds to latest available. Exchange rate calculated as at 29 Dec 2017. ¹ Based on constant prices in local currency (real) ² National figure Sources: Deloitte Advisory, Experian, Eurostat, RCA, Times Higher Education, ABF Research, Ziegert Immobilien, INE, Idealista, AM/Pararius, Catella
1
Home ownership rates for Rome, Milan and Lisbon are national rates. 2 Commercial and residential investment. Paris and London corresponds to central area only. ³ Most cities operate a license or registration system for short term
lets as well as penalty fees. In sme cases AirBNB collects a tourist tax on behalf of the local authority. Rules vary according to whether the entire property or individual rooms are being let. 4 If let more than 140 days the property is
subject to UK business rates
HOUSING MARKET
PRICING DEMAND SUPPLY FORECASTS
AVERAGE PRICES 5-YEAR HOUSEHOLD AVERAGE NO. OF INTERNATIONAL NEW-BUILD RESIDENTIAL NEW-BUILD GVA % CHANGE (2018-2028)¹ FUTURE HOUSEHOLD FUTURE HOUSEHOLD GENERATION RENT2 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD
(ANNUAL % CHANGE) GROWTH HOUSEHOLD VISITORS/TOURISTS COMPLETIONS, 2017³ COMPLETIONS PER 1,000 GROWTH (2018-2028) GROWTH % CHANGE POPULATION AS A % OF PERSONAL DISPOSABLE INCOME
Q1 2018 (2013-2018) SIZE 2018 2017² RESIDENTS 2017 (2018-2028) TOTAL POPULATION 2028 % CHANGE (2018-2028)
AMSTERDAM 16.6% 48,900 6.4% 30.2% 34.0%
AMSTERDAM 11.9% 5.1% 2.00 6.6m 4,922 5.9
BARCELONA 13.5% 14,600 0.8% 21.4% 32.7%
BARCELONA 8.2% 0.6% 2.47 7.6m 5,612 3.5
BERLIN 14.9% 5.5% 1.81 5.8m 12,785 3.4 BERLIN 14.5% 72,500 2.9% 24.7% 35.9%
BIRMINGHAM 6.4% 4.9% 2.45 1.2m 710 0.6 BIRMINGHAM 17.9% 113,100 7.0% 25.1% 35.1%
DUBLIN 11.7% 5.5% 2.77 5.0m 6,009 4.5 DUBLIN 19.9% 106,800 15.9% 25.0% 32.3%
EDINBURGH 12.0% 8.3% 2.11 1.6m 1,999 3.9 EDINBURGH 22.7% 34,300 12.3% 31.5% 35.2%
FRANKFURT 11.8% 5.1% 2.04 2.5m 2,865 3.9 FRANKFURT 9.5% 53,600 4.0% 24.8% 30.9%
LISBON 2.3% 1.6% 2.39 3.3m 1,654 3.3
LISBON 11.2% 38,600 3.1% 23.0% 26.5%
LONDON -0.6% 7.4% 2.44 19.8m 22,790 2.6
LONDON 25.3% 800,000 12.7% 26.4% 33.1%
MADRID 10.3% 3.3% 2.48 5.6m 10,176 3.2
MADRID 18.6% 130,100 4.8% 21.3% 30.9%
MILAN 0.6% 1.1% 2.16 7.4m 2,866 2.2
MILAN 13.1% 84,600 3.9% 22.6% 29.3%
PARIS 3.7% 2.7% 2.37 14.3m 3,338 1.5
PARIS 14.3% 318,300 5.9% 28.1% 25.6%
ROME -2.2% -3.0% 2.18 9.6m 4,636 1.6
ROME 10.5% 139,000 6.7% 22.7% 25.9%
VIENNA 3.5% 5.7% 2.11 6.0m 5,000 2.7
VIENNA 13.9% 137,000 9.0% 26.1% 21.2%
Sources: National sources, Oxford Economics, MHCLG, INE, CBL, Istat, Scottish Government, Ministerio de Fomento, Deloitte Advisory, Rightmove, European Mortgage Federation, HM Land Registry as at 13 June, CGEDD, Irish Central
Statistics Office, Immobiliare Italia, Registers of Scotland, VDP Research GmBH, Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg
¹ Where city-level data unavailable national average used. ² Arrivals refers to international tourists, i.e. any person visiting another country for at least 24 hours, for a period not exceeding 12 months, and staying in collective or private
accommodation. 3 New-build completions: Vienna: private dwellings only, Frankfurt: Data as at 2016. Sources: Oxford Economics. ¹ Based on constant prices in local currency. 2 20-39 year.
10 11OUTLOOK KNIGHT FRANK
INTELLIGENCE
For the latest news, views and analysis
on the world of prime property, visit
Europe’s recovery is now indisputable, but there are challenges KnightFrank.com/blog
ahead, not least in terms of affordability, housing delivery and the
fact the region is playing catch up with Asia when it comes to
infrastructure investment. FOR RESEARCH ENQUIRIES
Liam Bailey
Europe is arguably more resilient to crises cities, either due to an increase in stamp duty
Global Head of Research
than a decade ago, be they economic or for buy-to-let purchases, or as a result of rent +44 20 7861 5133
political. However, while Europe has been caps or because of the expanding market liam.bailey@knightfrank.com
at the top of investors’ lists for decades share of holiday rental platforms. Rental
Kate Everett-Allen
due to its transparency, stable governance demand is likely to increase further as a larger
International Residential Research
and wealth, competition from other parts of cohort of young professionals earn too much +44 20 7167 2497
the world is set to rise. to qualify for public housing but too little to kate.everett-allen@knightfrank.com
With public finances squeezed over the meet the strict mortgage rules now in place.
last decade, Europe has been slow to Some commentators have cautioned PRESS OFFICE
raise its game in terms of investment and against being overly bullish on Europe given Astrid Recaldin
infrastructure. The region has a long way the headwinds on the horizon, namely +44 20 7861 1182
to go if it is to compete with Asia and the Brexit, heightened property market astrid.recaldin@knightfrank.com
world’s largest infrastructure project; China’s regulations and a rising cost of finance.
Belt and Road Initiative. China is expected to However, economic output remains the key
have between 30 and 40 cities of more than driver of property markets and the region’s
10 million people by 2030. Latest forecasts GDP sits above its long-term average.
suggest Europe will have only two cities of a
comparable size by 2030; London and Paris. Although the focus amongst investors to
date has been on Europe’s large cities with
The region’s demographic fundamentals highly-transparent property markets, we
remain sound. Europe’s cities have some expect second tier markets to see
of the lowest purchase and ownership
investment activity strengthen. The focus
costs globally and it boasts some of the
will be on core central neighbourhoods as
most youthful, educated and qualified
opposed to peripheral areas with long-term
workforces in the world.
regeneration plans which may or may not
Although rental demand has expanded – come to fruition. New transport links,
in part due to affordability constraints – universities and technology hubs will be
available rental stock has shrunk in some the future engines of growth.
Get in touch Alex Koch de Gooreynd
+44 20 7861 1109 Knight Frank Research provides strategic
If you’re thinking of buying in any of the 14 alex.kdg@knightfrank.com advice, consultancy services and forecasting
European cities covered by this report, or
Claire Locke to a wide range of clients worldwide including
would just like some property advice, please +44 20 7861 5033 developers, investors, funding organisations,
do get in touch, we’d love to help. claire.locke@knightfrank.com corporate institutions and the public sector.
Mark Harvey Rena O’Kelly All our clients recognise the need for expert
+44 20 7861 5034 +353 1 775 8003 independent advice customised to their
mark.harvey@knightfrank.com rena.okelly@ie.knightfrank.com specific needs.
Knight Frank can advise on all aspects of property ownership across Europe’s main cities, from
acquisition to ownership and disposal. Relevant contacts are listed above. Further details are
available on our website at www.knightfrank.com/overseas-property.
RECENT MARKET-LEADING RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS Important Notice
© Knight Frank LLP 2018 – This report is published
for general information only and not to be relied upon in
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
FRANCE INSIGHT ITALY INSIGHT SWISS LAKES
2018 2018 INSIGHT 2018 any way. Although high standards have been used in
The global perspective on prime property and investment
MARK HARVEY, HEAD OF KNIGHT FRANK’S EUROPEAN SALES,
SHARES HIS INSIGHTS ON FRANCE’S PRIME RESIDENTIAL MARKET.
AMY REDFERN, OF KNIGHT FRANK’S ITALIAN DESK, SHARES HER
INSIGHTS ON ITALY’S PRIME RESIDENTIAL MARKET.
ALEX KOCH DE GOOREYND, HEAD OF KNIGHT FRANK’S SWITZERLAND
DESK, SHARES HIS KNOWLEDGE AND INSIGHT ON THE SWISS LAKES’
PRIME RESIDENTIAL MARKET.
the preparation of the information, analysis, views and
projections presented in this report, no responsibility or
HOW IS THE MARKET PERFORMING? WHERE ARE THE HOTSPOTS?
HOW IS THE MARKET values – perhaps the key reason as to why The first quarter of 2018 has brought with it Italy’s cities are en vogue. Florence, Rome AMY REDFERN WHAT DO BUYERS WHO ARE WHAT TRENDS ARE YOU NOTICING
real estate demand continues to grow in MARK HARVEY encouraging signs following a muted 2017. and Lucca currently account for around 40% Senior Negotiator, Italian desk
CONSIDERING PURCHASING IN IN 2018? ALEX KOCH DE GOOREYND
PERFORMING? these destinations (with enquiry numbers up Head of European Sales Super-prime sales (€10m+) have increased of our enquiries. +44 20 7861 1057 Head of the Switzerland Desk
Over the last 24 months we have seen +44 20 7861 5034 significantly and this is expected to filter down amy.redfern@knightfrank.com SWITZERLAND NEED TO KNOW? Residents that work in Geneva are showing +44 20 7861 1109
100% compared to 2016). Tuscany, the embodiment of Italian charm, alex.kdeg@knightfrank.com
liability whatsoever can be accepted by Knight Frank LLP
a remarkable reversal in France’s prime mark.harvey@knightfrank.com to lower price bands in the coming year. There are two distinct markets in Switzerland, a greater willingness to commute to the city
remains high on many wish lists, along with
residential markets stemming largely from a those where non-residents can buy (largely from areas in the Canton of Vaud such as La
WHAT TYPE OF PROPERTY IS IN In Italy, homeowners have displayed a the Northern Lakes.
Côte and even from Lausanne where property
strong Paris market (where prices increased confined to ski resorts as well as the immediate
by some 12% in 2017). Against a positive
GREATEST DEMAND? reluctance to acknowledge the reality of
Waterfront homes (Portofino and Costa areas surrounding Montreux, Lugano,
prices and municipal taxes are lower. The Swiss
softening prices over the last decade, which has
economic and political backdrop, France is The popularity of different kinds of property “FRANCE AND ITS RICH boosted stock levels and drawn out the market’s
Smeralda in Sardinia) saw an uptick in
Interlaken and Lucerne - see figure 2) and
Riviera (stretching from Montreux to Vevey) “RESIDENTS THAT WORK IN
now experiencing a buoyant and incredibly depends a great deal on location. In Paris, demand in 2017, with the super-prime boasts excellent schools and views across Lake GENEVA ARE SHOWING A
CULTURAL TAPESTRY recovery. Despite this, Knight Frank’s Italian
market notably active.
those where non-residents cannot buy, which
Geneva, and sits within a 75-minute train ride of
GREATER WILLINGNESS TO
for any loss or damage resultant from any use of, reliance
exciting residential market rebound. “L’effet traditional properties with grand proportions Prime Residential Index confirms that the rate of
THE WEALTH REPORT 2018
includes the cities of Geneva and Zurich. This
Macron”, as witnessed since the summer of and period features are most in demand, REMAINS AN ATTRACTIVE luxury price declines is now bottoming out with clear distinction, established by a law known as
the city itself.
COMMUTE TO THE CITY FROM
WHAT TYPE OF PROPERTY IS IN
last year, has caused a ripple of optimism
from Paris to the internationally sought
while the preference in the south of France
is typically for a local architectural vernacular
AND COMPELLING Liguria, Chianti and Milan registering positive
price growth in 2017. GREATEST DEMAND?
Lex Koller, results in two very distinct property Switzerland’s super prime market has become
polarised. From CHF20m to CHF40m vendors
AREAS IN THE CANTON OF
after regions including the Côte d’Azur, with a more contemporary interior twist. INVESTMENT AND Our enquiry numbers for Italian homes, up 133% The type of property is dependent on the city
markets operating along very different lines.
face strong competition making pricing and a VAUD SUCH AS LA CÔTE
Provence, the Alps and South West France, Budgets vary accordingly, albeit the majority LIFESTYLE CHOICE.” in 2017 year-on-year, suggests any uncertainty or region. In Italy’s cities, international buyers
Where non-residents can purchase a home, property’s condition critical. At the ultra-prime AND EVEN LAUSANNE.”
on or reference to the contents of this document. As a
all of which have witnessed a strong of our buyers look between €2 and €5 they can only buy a single property where the level (above CHF40m), demand remains stable,
on the political or economic stage – the general are seeking two or three-bedroom apartments
turnaround in sentiment, buyer interest million and seek elegant, turnkey ready official living space does not exceed 200 with those properties offered in an immaculate
election, banking crisis and Brexit negotiations – in central locations but critically these must be
and transactional activity. accommodation with manageable gardens square metres. However, buyers still need to condition generating the strongest interest.
have not influenced buyers’ decision-making. finished to a very high specification, in a prime
and ideally a breath-taking view. location and a ‘hassle-free’ purchase requiring FIGURE 1 be aware of the Lex Weber law which places a Although the Swiss Franc dipped against key FIGURE 1
WHO’S BUYING IN FRANCE? In contrast, in the Alps demand is frequently
The only notable impact has been at the very no additional work. TYPICAL PRIME RESIDENTIAL PRICES 20% cap on second homes in key communes. currencies in the last year it remains strong by
SWITZERLAND’S DEMOGRAPHIC
top end of the market where wealthy buyers,
International buyers continue to be the € per sq m, Q1 2018 historic standards. While this can influence buyer
focused on new-build properties, with off-plan In Venice and the Northern Lakes, those PROFILE
general report, this material does not necessarily represent
although still active, have reduced their budgets In contrast, Swiss residents face less
driving force of prime residential sales. The sentiment in all Swiss markets, buyers in the lakes
developments representing 80% of the Alpine FIGURE 1 to mitigate risk and currency exposure. buyers with deep enough pockets want restrictions on where or what they can
tend to focus more on the long-term gain and
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
lull following the EU referendum proved only homes sold across our network last year. PARIS RECORDS STRONGEST PRICE direct canal or lake frontage to maximise purchase, although non-European passport
momentary; with the British demographic lifestyle benefits. Here, a property boasts year- Non-residents
GROWTH IN 2017… their investment, both from a lifestyle and
once again accounting for up to one in four
The advantages of buying off-plan in France WHO’S BUYING IN ITALY? Costa Smeralda
holders are restricted to one primary residence. round appeal, offering summer by the lake
are multiple and might include staggered Prime residential prices, annual % change, 2017 rental perspective.
The lifestyle on offer in Italy remains the primary Rome whilst some of the top Alpine resorts sit within
prime residential purchases. The remaining
75% of buyers typically stem from northern
payments, the most advanced construction
motivation for most international buyers. A Finally, in rural parts, a stone-built farmhouse HOW DO RESIDENT AND NON- an hour’s drive. 55,022
the view of Knight Frank LLP in relation to particular
techniques and materials, a 10-year with a few hectares, an attractive pool and Portofino
Europe (Benelux, Switzerland, Scandinavia) guarantee, and a possible VAT rebate of up
second home located within a short flight of their RESIDENT BUYERS DIFFER IN
along with French domestic buyers who primary residence, which offers strong rental rural views of vineyards and olive groves Forte dei Marmi THE SWISS LAKES? WHAT IS YOUR OUTLOOK FOR Foreign-born
to 20% for those open to a rental solution. appeals to family buyers seeking the full
prospects and the promise of a good climate, THE MARKET? residents
WEALTH ADVISORY
account for around one in five of our prime Milan
culture, and landscape acts as a strong pull. Tuscan experience. Resident buyers tend to have larger budgets;
buyers. Buyers from the Middle East, the US The market slowed post 2016 when the OECD’s
and even Asia are also displaying a greater WHAT’S YOUR OUTLOOK Venice
they will be in possession of their residency
2,063,428
Northern Europeans are active, particularly those convention on Swiss banking secrecy was first
appetite for French real estate. FOR 2018? from within the Eurozone who have been able
WHAT’S YOUR OUTLOOK FOR 2018? permit, be aware of the different cantonal
mooted, but in 2017 we saw renewed interest as
properties or projects. Reproduction of this report in whole
s prime property markets Opportunities abound. Buyers are arguably
Lake Como tax rules and usually have a clearly-defined
The confidence that was cultivated in the to take advantage of moderating prices without education, lifestyle and personal security moved to
search area. Interest in recent months is
WHERE ARE THE HOTSPOTS? market during 2016 continues to gain being penalised by any currency shift. facing the best quality stock for some Florence the fore as key motivations amongst buyers.
years and where prices have plateaued strongest within the CHF2m and CHF8m
leverages market-leading research France is fortunate to have many hotspots momentum and as France celebrates a The love affair with all things Italian continues for Argentario price bracket. Previously, the upper end of Lugano and Montreux, as well as other areas that
record 2017 when over one million properties we expect the market to gain traction as
al service to our global private clients – from beautiful cities and charming hilltop many Americans. In the three months to March the price bracket would have extended to offer lakeside views and dual season appeal, will
changed hands, we expect transaction inventories diminish. Western Liguria
villages, to glamorous beaches and award- 2018, online property viewings by prospective CHF10m but this has reduced slightly, partly increasingly come under the spotlight. Although Population
or in part is not allowed without prior written approval of
winning ski resorts. Our carefully considered volumes to rise further. Against a backdrop buyers in the US accounted for 11% of all Currency matters. Where UK vendors are the properties currently on offer are of good quality
Chianti because of the more stringent assessment of
operty, perfectly. associate network of offices across France, of historically low interest rates, rising house searches on Knight Frank’s website. looking to return home we are seeing a greater
Vald'Orcia and lump sum taxation, which came into force on
in these areas, there is limited volume, which is 8,482,200
price inflation, growing economic and political flexibility on price as the recent strengthening
St Remy de Provence 5.0%
covering Paris, the Côte d’Azur, Saint Tropez, southern Tuscany putting pressure on prices.
Of note is the uptick in interest from Australia 1 January 2016.
Courchevel 1850 0.4%
the Luberon and Alpilles, Gers, Espace Killy, stability, France looks to attract global wealth of the pound provides them with some room
and New Zealand. Many applicants are semi- Lucca and Pisa The Swiss Franc remains a go-to safe haven
2018 that will allow its real estate markets to thrive for manoeuvre.
St Tropez -5.0%
Les 3 Vallées, Megève and Chamonix, are
Val d’Isere 3.0%
The budgets of non-resident buyers are
Chamonix 4.5%
Megeve -0.5%
retired couples with children working in Europe currency and despite its strength a number of
Evian -10.0%
Cannes 2.7%
Meribel 1.6%
Paris 12.0%
through 2018 and beyond. Indeed, as global
12th Edition the local experts in these very hotspots. The Maremma significantly lower at around CHF1m to
seeking a long-term summer base to use for Ease of access. Northern Italy is appealing buyers cite a desire to hold an asset in a non-US
Knight Frank LLP to the form and content within which it
com international appeal of these destinations uncertainty prevails, France and its rich CHF4m. Most make their first acquisition at
family get-togethers. City apartments in Florence to buyers keen to explore Switzerland and Umbria dollar and non-Euro denomination as a key
ensures a constant flow of eager tourists cultural tapestry remains an attractive and this price but then increase their investment
and Rome are popular; particularly those easy to France, either for ski breaks, outdoor pursuits motivation behind their purchase. I don’t see this Source: Swiss Federal Statistics Office, State Secretariat for Migration.
which helps to underpin the underlying market compelling investment and lifestyle choice. Source: Knight Frank Research maintain as well as lock up and leave. or for cultural reasons. Source: Knight Frank Research having familiarised themselves with an area. changing any time soon. As at 31 March 2018
The Wealth Report - France Insight - 2018 Italy Insight - 2018 Swiss Insight - 2018 appears. Knight Frank LLP is a limited liability partnership
2018 registered in England with registered number OC305934.
Our registered office is 55 Baker Street, London, W1U 8AN,
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