Expanding the time dimension of hyperspectral infrared sounding observations: Designing the NUCAPS-Forecast system
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Expanding the time dimension of hyperspectral
infrared sounding observations:
Designing the NUCAPS-Forecast system
Emily Berndt1, Brian Kahn,2 Jonathan L. Case1,3, Peter M. Kalmus 2,
Mark T. Richardson 2, Kevin K. Fuell 1,4
1NASA MSFC Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center
2Jet Propulsion Laboratory
3ENSCO, Inc.
4Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama in Huntsville
Motivation
• Low Earth Orbit (LEO) hyper-spectral infrared (IR) sounders only measure the atmosphere when
satellites pass overhead, with multi-hour data gaps between overpasses.
• This project developed a novel methodology to fill the time gaps by moving retrieved air parcels
leveraging trajectory modeling and numerical weather prediction (NWP) winds.
• This presentation describes the method, improved convection predictions, and ongoing work.
Timely delivery of data products
Increasing observations A roadmap for the future
• Modify a science system for
• What is the value of increasing operations • Inform the potential
temporal resolution and forecasting value of a
spatial coverage • The cross-benefit of science geostationary sounder
and applications
Science to Applications
• Kalmus et al. (2019) developed an approach to expand
the time dimension of LEO IR sounding retrievals
through use of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian
Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT; Stein et al. 2015)
• The method was developed with NASA's Atmospheric
Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 6 retrievals to create
proximity soundings near severe weather reports after
the 130 pm Aqua overpass
• The retrospective trajectory model approach is driven
by Numerical Weather Prediction wind fields that treat
individual sounding layers as distinct air parcels,
conserved along moist or dry adiabats
• This retrospective approach was adapted to a real-time
forward trajectory approach utilizing low-latency NUCAPS Forecast
Data fusion and trajectory modeling applied to
NASA/NOAA JPSS Series CrIS/ATMS sounding retrievals extend the time-dimension of observations
processed through the NOAA Unique Combined
Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS) algorithm.
NUCAPS Products Life Cycle
• Since 2015, collaborators in the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Sounding Initiative have introduced
Hyperspectral Infrared Sounders (S-NPP, NOAA-20, MetOp-A/B) to NOAA NWS forecasters through the
NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
• Operations-to-research feedback has led to further development of products and capabilities to tailor
sounding products to meet the needs of the operational environment
Modified Low Latency Enhanced L2 NUCAPS
NUCAPS Data Products Forecast
Gridded NUCAPS allows
Boundary layer Providing Soundings Data fusion and
for quick analysis of
modification gives through CSPP direct trajectory modeling
spatial gradients and
forecasters more broadcast has increased applied to extend the
expands the range of
confidence in the lower the data availability to time-dimension of
available derived
portion of the retrieval less than 60 minutes observations
products
• A consistent message from forecasters is the need for more satellite soundings delivered with low latency
NUCAPS-Forecast
• The experimental product, NUCAPS-Forecast, was run in real-time in spring 2019 and 2021 for testing
and feedback at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (Esmaili et al. 2020).
• Operations-to-Research feedback from National Weather Service forecasters during the 2019 and
2021 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment has led to improving the product and
processing system to address product limitations and improve its applicability for pre-convective
forecasting.
• NUCAPS-Forecast will be expanded based on Gridded NUCAPS (Berndt et al. 2020) to plot additional
fields such as lapse rates, precipitable water, temperature, and relative humidity to expand the base
products beyond stability indices.
Steps to Process NUCAPS-Forecast Version 1
The 0.25-degree GFS forecast data are downloaded as HYSPLIT-formatted files from the Air Resources Laboratory and NUCAPS L2 Environmental Data Records
are obtained from direct broadcast sites and accessed through the Space Science and Engineering at the University of Wisconsin Madison
Key Improvements to NUCAPS-Forecast
• NUCAPS-Forecast is undergoing development to improve product utility and usability in key areas to address
end user feedback
• reducing data gaps
• vertically gridding scattered parcels
• improving the LCL calculation and application of dry and moist adiabatic lapse rates
• correcting unrealistic CAPE values
• improving the quality of vertical profiles
• adding a map of parcel counts to give users confidence in the product
NUCAPS-Forecast NUCAPS-Forecast
Version 1 Version 2
Key Improvements to NUCAPS-Forecast
• NUCAPS-Forecast is undergoing development to improve product utility and usability in key areas to address
end user feedback
• reducing data gaps
• vertically gridding scattered parcels
• improving the LCL calculation and application of dry and moist adiabatic lapse rates
• correcting unrealistic CAPE values
• improving the quality of vertical profiles
• adding a map of parcel counts to give users confidence in the product
NUCAPS-Forecast
NUCAPS-Forecast
Version 2
Version 1Key Improvements to NUCAPS-Forecast • NUCAPS-Forecast is undergoing development to improve product utility and usability in key areas to address end user feedback • reducing data gaps • vertically gridding scattered parcels • improving the LCL calculation and application of dry and moist adiabatic lapse rates • correcting unrealistic CAPE values • improving the quality of vertical profiles • adding a map of parcel counts to give users confidence in the product
NUCAPS-Forecast Version 2 Examples
• Storms produced high wind, hail, and tornadoes
in the southern Midwest on 27-28 March 2020
• Example NUCAPS-Forecast maps show the ability
of NUCAPS-Forecast to capture the environmental
conditions leading to convection
• Thermodynamic fields, 700 hPa temperature and
specific humidity, capture gradients consistent
with :
• a stationary front extending from southeast Colorado,
through northern Oklahoma, and central Missouri
• a dry line oriented north-south over west TexasNUCAPS-Forecast Version 2 Examples • Stability indices, Most Unstable CAPE and CIN, derived from NUCAPS-Forecast are compared with MRMS Gauge Corrected Accumulated Precipitation. • Areas of heavy precipitation occur in regions of high horizontal gradients in CAPE • Much larger values of CIN found where no rainfall occurred • The magnitudes, spatial gradients, and temporal changes in NUCAPS-Forecast CAPE and CIN are qualitatively consistent with the time and location of convective rainfall. • Kahn et al. (2022) investigates 24 case studies to determine the ability of NUCAPS-Forecast CAPE and CIN to indicate the likelihood of convection.
Summary
• Application of trajectory modeling to LEO IR soundings for the purpose of expanding the time
resolution and spatial coverage of observations derived from polar-orbiting satellites adds value
to assessing the pre-convective environment.
• Expanding observations out 6 hours in time provides hourly observations that can serve as a proxy
to determine the benefit of a future sounder in geostationary orbit onboard GeoXO.
• Product improvements and additional fields will be tested and assessed with NWS forecasters at
the 2023 NOAA HWT Spring Experiment
• Example NUCAPS-Forecast plots demonstrate the product's ability to represent characteristics of
the pre-convective environment such as temperature and moisture gradients and areas of CAPE
that correlate with heavy precipitation.
• Kahn et al. (2022) expands further on the ability of NUCAPS-Forecast to indicate the likelihood of
convective initiation by comparing CAPE and CIN to MRMS precipitation for 24 case studies.
This presentation represents work funded by the NOAA Joint Polar Satellite System Proving Ground/Risk Reduction Program This work was also supported by the NASA
Research and Analysis Program as part of the Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) project at the Marshall Space Flight CenterReferences Berndt, E. B., N. Smith, J. Burks, K. White, R. Esmaili, A. Kuciauskas, et al., 2020: Gridded Satellite Sounding Retrievals in Operational Weather Forecasting: Product Description and Emerging Applications. Remote Sensing, 12, 3311, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12203311 Esmaili, R.B., N. Smith, E. B. Berndt, J. F. Dostalek, B. H. Kahn, K. White, and C. D. Barnet, W. Sjoberg, and M. Goldberg, 2020: Adapting Satellite Soundings for Operational Forecasting within the Hazardous Weather Testbed. Remote Sens., 12, 886. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12050886 Kahn, B. H, E. B. Berndt, J. L. Case, P. M. Kalmus, M. T. Richardson, 2022: A nowcasting approach for low Earth orbit hyperspectral infrared soundings within the convective environment. Wea. Forecasting, in review. Kalmus, P., B. H. Kahn, S. W. Freeman, and S. C. van den Heever, 2019: Trajectory-Enhanced AIRS Observations of Environmental Factors Driving Severe Convective Storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 1633–1653, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0055.1
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