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119
fnrs.news
THE MAGAZINE OF THE FUND FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH - FNRS - QUARTERLY No. 119 • June 2020 - P201210
June 2020
APOCALYPSE?
www.frs-fnrs.be • June 2020 • Liège depot office P201210
#coronavirus Report FNRS in figures
What the experts say Apocalypse? Virtual commissions
EDITORIAL 01
#CORONAVIRUS 02
REPORT APOCALYPSE 04
“Revelations”. Introduction to the apocalyptic
literary genre 06
Why do we enjoy pretending it’s the apocalypse? 08
An inexorable demographic decline? 10
The theory of the great replacement
or the obsession with foreigners 12
Collapsology: explaining the term 14
Viruses: from animals to humans 16
Vaccines and antibiotics: strategies at risk? 18
Epidemics: the fear of the apocalyptic scenario? 20
Biodiversity wall threatens to collapse 22
Insect swarms: the weapon of yesterday,
the scourge of today 24
Fires in Australia: the beginnings of the apocalypse? 26
How Man tries to avoid a
meteorite destroying the world 28
The final explosion 30
COMMISSIONS, WHAT NEXT? 32
THE FNRS IN FIGURES 34
UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASS 36
- FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020
FNRS.news is published by the Fund for An electronic version of FNRS.news is Contributors to this issue:
Scientific Research - FNRS. available at www.fnrs.news. Madeleine Cense, Christian Du Brulle, Marie-
The reproduction of published articles Publisher: Véronique Halloin Françoise Dispa, Henri Dupuis, Lauranne
is not permitted, except with the prior Secretary-General, rue d’Egmont 5 - Garitte, Céline Husson, Julie Luong, Sylvie
agreement of the Fund for Scientific 1000 Brussels. Paelman, Céline Rase, Frédéric Soumois,
Research - FNRS and reference to their Laurent Zanella.
Editor in Chief: Éric Winnen
source. Editorial Assistant: Céline Rase Acknowledgements: The editorial team
Production: www.chriscom.eu would like to thank those who contributed to
fnrs.news@frs-fnrs.be the writing of the articles and to the creation
of the illustrations.
2
EDITORIAL
Science: on the other
side of the crisis!
Whether we want it or not, whether initiatives deployed in Wallonia and It is therefore necessary to repeat
we accept it or not, times have Brussels to combat the COVID-19 and assert the following once again:
changed. Within a few weeks, a new pandemic and its consequences on in the face of the magnitude of this
form of chaos has unsettled our lives, health, society and the economy. This crisis, in the face of other crises that
individually and collectively, making site was designed and developed by we often approach with too much
uncertainties even more tangible. the FNRS, on the initiative of the Royal recklessness, in the face of the lies
Without really knowing what this Academy of Medicine and the Royal that maintain the most dangerous
post-crisis period, which is only Academy of Sciences, Letters and Fine beliefs and ideologies, science,
just beginning, holds in store, there Arts, supported by the universities of more than ever, must be defended,
is nevertheless a gradual return to the Wallonia-Brussels Federation and supported, considered in its rightful
“normal” activity. This normalisation, the Biowin competitiveness cluster. place and, above all, funded in line
both anticipated and worrying, cannot Since the beginning of this crisis, with the barrage of threats we face.
erase our questions and fears. Rather, a large number of researchers, in Without awareness of these crises,
it must remind us, once again, of the particular from the FNRS, have also without conviction of its importance,
fundamental and decisive role of been approached by the media for science will be disarmed and
scientific research in dealing with it. their expertise. By issuing measured, powerless, and humanity will be in
During this period, there was no balanced and responsible opinions, ruins.
interruption of the activities of the they have played several essential
FNRS as a whole. On the contrary! The roles: an educational role vis-à- Véronique Halloin,
administration has pursued all of its vis the general public, an expert Secretary-General
missions, the Board of Directors has role in political decision-making of the F.R.S.-FNRS
taken all possible flexibility measures processes, and an enlightening role by
with regard to researchers and highlighting certain unknown aspects
applicants, the Scientific Commissions of the crisis’ impacts and future
(for the call for “Scholarships and consequences. And they have also,
Fellowships”) took place on the inevitably, played an extraordinary role
usual dates, via video conference, as promoters of science and scientific
and obviously with the same level research as we conceive it at the
of quality and confidentiality FNRS: free research, characterised by
requirements, and other juries were requirements of transparency, data
held in the context of “Prizes and sharing, exchange of experiences,
Endowments” activities. With a sense but also and above all disinterested
of urgency, faced with the pandemic, fundamental research, which is both
the FNRS has also provided additional long-term and forward-looking.
funds, financed from donations and
private bequests, for Urgent Research
Credits (CUR) and Exceptional
Research Projects (PER), which will be
allocated shortly. Also, a fund-raising
campaign has been launched to appeal
to the generosity of the public to help
scientists fight against coronavirus.
Research activities have continued,
even though they have been
- FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020
impeded by the closure of labs, the
inaccessibility of libraries and the
impossibility of travel and missions
abroad. Yet in some areas, directly or
indirectly affected by the pandemic,
some research has been particularly
dynamic, fruitful and visible. The
website www.covid19-wb.be is a
perfect example of this, making public
the inventory of hundreds of research
projects, expertise and business 1
CREDIT: HUGUES DEPASSE
# C O R O NAV I R U S
What the
experts say
With Marius Gilbert
and Guillaume
Grignard
They have become points of reference. During the
long period of lockdown and management of the
coronavirus pandemic, scientists, including many
FNRS researchers, provided precise analyses that
supported comprehension and action on the part of
citizens and authorities. Written press interviews,
appearances on television, advice to political
authorities: they played a crucial role. What was the
role of scientific discussion, how did the experts
make it audible to the general public and what
will remain of it in the future? Marius Gilbert and
Guillaume Grignard provide an account and analysis.
you have to be precise without always
having the framework to be so. So the
T
he last months have forced the useful in the media than in his lab, and epidemiologist set himself two rules for
impromptu meeting of three this is how he gradually stood out as an communicating: accepting the limits of
worlds: that of scientists, that indispensable expert, the subject of the his knowledge and setting boundaries for
of the media and that of politicians. headline “Beacon in the Belgian night of the interviews. “It is important to distinguish
“Unprecedented networking”, observes coronavirus” in Le Soir, in mid-March. between categories of information and
Guillaume Grignard, FNRS Research attaching a graduated level of confidence
to them when presenting them to the
Fellow in political sciences at ULB, “but
quite successful”. For the specialists
From communication public. There are reliable data, which are
called to the fore, including FNRS Senior to becoming a star the subject of a broad scientific consensus,
there are credible data, based on sets
Research Associate Marius Gilbert, the It is by hitting the right tone that Marius of assumptions, and there are data that
communication challenge was as colossal Gilbert won the trust of journalists,
- FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020
remain unknown, which are the subject
as it was essential: “As an epidemiologist, I viewers and politicians. And therein of speculation and are then subject to
know that containing an epidemic depends lies the complexity of expertise in divergent analyses – there is nothing more
on the adoption of certain behaviours by the media: “You need to provide short confusing for the population than multi-
the entire population. However, the public answers to complex questions, which is faceted communication. To remain credible,
can only buy into such disruption to their very different for us from our scientific you need to have the intellectual honesty to
habits if they understand precisely what is practice”, he notes. “As researchers, we acknowledge that there are uncertainties or
at stake. While official communication was are used to communicating with peers that we simply do not know. ” It is with this
initially very limited, I decided to occupy a and drawing on a wealth of common in mind that Marius Gilbert takes the time
role that should not remain empty. ” From knowledge. As teachers, we introduce to prepare his interaction with journalists.
as early as February, the researcher complexity and present concepts gradually “I try to have a clear view of the questions
2 was convinced that he would be more as the discourse develops. ” In the media, that will be asked and I suggest the names
Epiphenomenon anthropologists or political scientists in
this crisis, on television in any case, which
A meeting of different worlds, therefore. dominates the media world”, regrets
An ephemeral marriage? “Probably. The Guillaume Grignard. ” On the other hand,
omnipresence of scientific discussion in they are widely read; these researchers
the media is an epiphenomenon linked in the human sciences have never written
to periods of crisis”, explains Guillaume so many opinion pieces as during the
Grignard. “We saw this at the time of the lockdown – spontaneous, unprovoked
terrorist attacks in 2016 or, more recently, discussion... “We found ourselves in an
at the time of the fire at Notre-Dame de unprecedented situation in which everyone
Paris. Terrorism and cathedral experts were wanted to react, all needing to express
mobilised in numbers before returning themselves on equally fundamental
to the shadows. ” The same observation aspects of the lockdown: teleworking, the
Marius Gilbert, FNRS Senior applies to politics: “It is only in crisis psychological impact, the organisation
Research Associate, SpELL, ULB situations that the government needs to of the entrepreneurial world, etc.” Since
surround itself with experts”, states Marius February, not a day has passed without
Gilbert. “The financial crisis, the terrorist the social networks of the FNRS relaying
attacks or this epidemic are all contexts that the expertise or opinion of its grant
of colleagues when points for analysis do required short-circuiting long-term science holders and fellows: researchers in life
not seem to fall within my remit. ” to rely on immediate expertise. ” Does sciences, but also in psychology, labour
this mean that the opinion of scientists law, climatology, politics, sociology,
In this way, invited several evenings a counts less outside of crises? That philosophy, legal sciences, history, etc.
week into the living rooms of locked- without a crisis, there is no need? That we They have all given food for thought to
down Belgians, Marius Gilbert ended should not aim to listen to scientists in a millions of Belgians. Thank you to all of
up being part of their daily routines. structured manner? “I think we should… them.
And there is also some hype. “But it that there are many issues at stake”, Marius
is low-level”, he tempers, modest and Céline Rase
Gilbert replies. And that, without becoming
almost uncomfortable: his photo on a technocratic state, the consultation of
the front page of Paris Match, the experts always makes sense. ”
flattering caricatures of Kroll and Vadot,
the t-shirts depicting his face, the
passionate comments on Facebook and Which experts?
the sharing of his very popular epidemic
It is still necessary to determine which
curves on Twitter, are all evidence that
experts to call upon. Here Marius Gilbert
the phenomenon of becoming a star
concedes, for example, that in such a
proceeds rapidly. It has reached the point
crisis, his expertise allows him to define
that when the epidemiologist appears
the epidemiological constraints, but that
less on TV, viewers worry and enquire
on other issues related to the lockdown,
with the RTBF about his state of health.
many other scientists, if not all citizens,
have things to say.
Freedom of thought This is also the main criticism heard
We then move on to phase two of Marius about the “Lockdown exit group”: it
Gilbert’s involvement. When he agreed, consists mainly of experts in health and
following a telephone call from the Prime the economic sphere, thus reflecting
Minister, to join the Group of Experts the very strong dominance of medical
responsible for the Exit Strategy (GEES), the sciences among the scientific disciplines
researcher placed greater restrictions on on show in the media. “We have heard
himself. Firstly, because deciphering the very little from sociologists, philosophers,
situation for the media is time-consuming
and energy-intensive. Secondly, because
“
“when you are involved in a decision, I feel
that it is no longer my role to comment
on it”, he explains. This collaboration
with the political world was a “very big In a crisis like this, we all navigate
- FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020
responsibility” but, once again, it was not by sight. All of us – politicians,
something you turn down. In short, this is journalists and the general public
part of “service to the community”, in line – need beacons that guide us. We
with his mission as an FNRS researcher. need experts. We were looking for
“And I must say that I really tested the scientists who know how to use
freedom of expression that we enjoy as plain language and who do not
researchers and academics. We are not exaggerate or minimise. We found
afraid of displeasing a minister and losing them.
our jobs. I believe that it is valuable for us,
Julie Morelle, RTBF journalist
but also for politics and therefore for society
as a whole, to have representatives whose Guillaume Grignard, FNRS
freedom of thought is guaranteed. ” Research Fellow, CEVIPOL, ULB 3
REPORT
Apocalypse?
11:58 p.m.
It is two minutes to midnight. Scientists from the Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists (including 15 Nobel Prize-winners) have delivered their annual
conclusions on the time we have left until the apocalypse: according to
this conceptual clock, created at the beginning of the Cold War to warn
of the danger of nuclear weapons, humanity has only two minutes left
to live. The hand has moved dangerously close to midnight this year
– midnight signalling the end of the world – given how the threats of
climate change and nuclear war are endangering the Earth.
The Doomsday Clock was set at 11:58 p.m. in early 2020.
That was before the coronavirus crisis. Since then, the COVID-19
pandemic has occurred, which has given the whole planet the feeling
of going through something from a work of fiction. The lockdown has
provided a more specific idea of what this really means: the Earth
is exhausted and humanity is falling apart. Scientists are the least
surprised since they provide regular warnings: the human race is faced
with dangers that are often caused by it. Burning forests, depletion
- FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020
of natural resources, loss of biodiversity, insect swarms, epidemics,
declining birth rates: 20 FNRS researchers shed light here on bleak
scenarios from the past and for the near and distant future. They recall
that the end of the world has been in the making since the dawn of
time and, each in their own field, consider the following question: is our
civilisation doomed? Is it too late to move the hands back from midnight?
4
5
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R E P O R T A P O C A LY P S E
“Revelation”
Introduction to
the apocalyptic
literary genre
by Baudouin
Decharneux
T
In collaboration with: raditionally, it is considered that visions/revelations that are not directly
between the 2nd century BC and understood by the visionary who receives
the 1st century AD, the apocalyptic them and, consequently, they require an
genre appeared in veterotestamentary interpreter (often an angel) who explains
and intertestamentary literature. From to him or her the meaning they convey.
the Greek apokalypsis “unveiling” or Thus, the apocalyptic genre begins at
“revelation”, the idea of apocalypse, a time when the idea of the drying up
originating from the Christian tradition, of prophetic inspiration was spreading:
suggests that a specific message has as if, exhausted by the test of time, or
“
been given to a person (a visionary) in by a change in temporality, the voice of
order for him or her to attest to events the prophets had fallen silent, while a
that have occurred or are yet to occur last generation took over, aware of the
imminence of the end of time and its
If we take the most and have remained secret for the most
intrinsic weakness.
part. The theme of the little book that
common definition, we
the visionary eats as if to incorporate Texts generally considered to be
will consider apocalypses the Scriptures seems to suggest that he apocalypses therefore share a number of
as literature taking the had access to “God’s hidden agenda”; a specific traits that distinguish them from
form of a revelation, with revelation that, at first, is sweet as honey, other literary genres. If we take the most
then creates bitterness in the insides. The common definition, we will consider the
- FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020
a narrative framework, eschatological dimension, mythological- apocalypses as “literature presenting itself
in which a revelation symbolic narration revealing the end of in the form of a revelation, with a narrative
is passed on by an time, is predominant; these poetic texts, framework, in which a revelation is passed
supported by powerful symbolic images, on by an otherworldly being to a human
otherworldly being to recipient, revealing a transcendent reality
often mysterious and enigmatic, are
a human recipient, infused with epic inspiration that shakes that is both temporal, insofar as it foresees
revealing a transcendent up literary conventions. eschatological salvation, and spatial, insofar
as it involves another, supernatural world”.
reality. It is important to note that the This definition can certainly be discussed
apocalyptic genre, a later incarnation in depth, but it considerably underpins
6 of the prophetic genre, involves the majority of recent studies.
“The fact that the
apocalyptic genre,
with its visions and
predictions, especially
attributed to Paul of Tarsus or Peter, are its political issues, as enlightening as it
of the end of time, apocalyptic texts. The various evangelical is with regard to the theological-political
can give meaning texts concerned prophesise about the intentionality of the writers, does not
to lived experience, destruction of the Temple, the return explain, for example, the choice of form
of the Son of Man and the symbolism or even the spiritual scope of this type of
especially in times of of the fig tree; the letters refer to the writing. Cross-referencing certain passages
crisis, explains the appearance of the Saviour, the suffering from these narratives with the data
success of this means of Christ and his triumph (Paul), as well gleaned by contemporary anthropology,
as the punishment of the wicked and the for example on possession states (the
of expression. rewarding of the righteous (Peter). These connection to exorcism and adorcism),
various passages show that we are in the can also be fruitful, especially if we bear in
presence of a literary genre in its own mind that exorcisms were part of the daily
right, perhaps linked to preaching, which life of certain early Christian communities.
was widespread in the early Christian
From a literary point of view, apocalyptic
communities.
These apocalyptic texts are frequently narratives are always fascinating because
placed under the authority of a Among all the texts considered to be they implement a multitude of symbols,
prestigious figure from the past who apocalyptic, the Apocalypse of John is mysterious words and secret signs, which
is beyond reproach because of the the main source relating to the figure of are a form of esotericism (so language
high scriptural reputation he or she Jesus. The first part of the text (the letters reserved for insiders). These texts,
enjoys (Apocalypses of Adam, Abraham, sent to the seven communities), which somewhere between fear and fascination,
Enoch, Moses, etc.). For the Ancients, can be described as ecclesiological, does raise questions to the point of having
it was less a process of falsification of not belong to an apocalyptic source as occupied a central place in iconography.
memory than the desire to show that such. It has been integrated into visions An example of this is the multiple
such closeness to the divine was only that are arranged on a level that is still representations of apocalyptic visions that
conceivable on the part of an Ancient the subject of scientific debate among adorn Romanesque and Gothic churches
endowed with an indisputable spiritual exegetes. It should be noted that nominal and cathedrals.
aura. Thus, historical criticism refers quotations from the figure of Jesus are Baudouin Decharneux1
to pseudepigrapha (writings placed rare in Revelations, which prefers to use
under a pseudonym). Finally, from a titles, qualifications and symbols, and
methodological point of view, the main therefore proceed using allusions and
categories that help us to read and analogies: Christ, prince of the kings
understand biblical texts (propheticism, of the earth, the faithful witness, the
apocalyptic, stories, hymns, etc.) firstborn of the dead, the Son of Man, the
essentially have a heuristic value. It is First and Last, the Living One, etc. This
examination and its dynamics that prevail non-exhaustive list includes the main
in terms of research, not stereotypical references to the figure of Jesus, and
responses. each of the verses concerned can be the
subject of a multitude of interpretations,
The fact that the apocalyptic genre, with meaning it has heuristic value because it
its visions and predictions, especially questions the methodology implemented
of the end of time, can give meaning to by the author (or the authors). It is the
lived experience, especially in times of whole question of the relationship of
crisis, explains the success of this means Jesus to time (cyclical or not), but also
of expression. Thus, the Byzantine world of his Churches in relation to their own
of the 6th and 7th centuries was marked temporality that is addressed here, from
by an intensification of eschatological an eschatological and soteriological
expectations: the dramatic events of the perspective.
7th century – the Persian conquest of
Historical-critical research has strongly
Jerusalem, then the liberation of the city,
emphasised the Sitz im Lebem, the
- FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020
and once again the conquests, by Arabs
epochality, of apocalyptic texts. It
this time with the gradual establishment audouin Decharneux, FNRS
B
is clear that the wars against the
of a Muslim power – gave rise to rich Senior Research Associate, CIERL,
Hellenistic kingdoms and the reign of
apocalyptic literature, both Jewish and ULB, member of the Letters and
the Hasmoneans (164 BC), the Roman
Christian. Moral and Political Sciences class
protectorate in Judea that led to armed of the Royal Academy of Belgium
The Apocalypse of John is certainly the conflict and the destruction of Jerusalem,
only text considered to be an apocalypse and the early persecutions of Christians,
in New Testament (canonical) literature; were major historical events that partly
however, critics consider that several explain the success they met and the
1. This text was reviewed and
passages of the gospels of Mark, hopes they gave rise to. However, the expanded by Guillaume Dye,
Matthew and Luke, and the epistles connection with a historical period and whom I would like to thank. 7
Why do we enjoy
pretending it’s the
R E P O R T A P O C A LY P S E
apocalypse?
with Fanny Barnabé
T
Slaughtering here was no need to wait for
A crisis-related
dangerous zombies, video games to make the end of
resurgence
the world a promising subject,
surviving in a hostile and literature and cinema in particular “This resurgence is due in particular to the
environment, saving have already made good use of it. To emergence of new ″gameplay″ (a game
transpose our societal fears and our
your own skin or that mechanics), that of the ″battle royale″. It
criticisms of self-destructive practices, is a game mode - mainly used in shooting
of your loved ones as and to feed the metaphor of what games - in which 100 players are plunged
the world is ending, will lead to our downfall, apocalyptic into a space and only one must survive.
imagery, so that of the undead, mutants The genre is sometimes traced back to
rebuilding a society, and planetary disasters, is a staple. “The DayZ, the development of which began
etc. Video games theme of the apocalypse is an important in 2012, a world populated by zombies in
have successfully motif of popular culture, and video games which players are thrown without supplies.
have of course appropriated it”, notes They need to find weapons, medicine and
appropriated the Fanny Barnabé, FNRS Postdoctoral food to survive. But the genre became
entertaining aspects Researcher and member of the Liège popular in particular with the releases of
PUBG and then Fortnite, in which 100
offered by the theme Game Lab at the ULiège Laboratory of
players fight each other in a small space.
Media and Mediation Studies. “For this,
of the apocalypse. the game S.T.A.L.K.E.R. is fairly typical: This has revived the post-apocalyptic
Of course, we have set in Chernobyl, it was released in 2007 genre”, explains the ULiège researcher.
always loved to play and inspired by the 1979 film of the However, the game’s mechanics are not
same name, itself taken from a science the only driver of this popularity. It is
- FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020
at scaring ourselves. fiction novel published in 1972. ” What is also due to sociological factors. “It is a
But these zombies more intriguing is that there has been genre that is always linked to anxieties and
a resurgence, in recent years, in the fears deeply rooted in society. It crosses
and post-apocalyptic all disciplines: cinema and literature have
popularity of post-apocalyptic video
worlds say much more games. Thus, Fallout, Fortnite, Minecraft, long echoed our anxieties. Its re-emergence
about us than that. The Last of US, PUBG, Days Gone are is linked to the social crises we are
particularly popular video game experiencing. Researcher Óliver Pérez-
licences. Latorre argues that a re-emergence of the
post-apocalyptic genre originated in the
2008 financial and economic crisis. It can
8 also now be fed by the anxiety about theclimate change crisis. In this regard, we note
an evolution in zombie fiction: it gradually
An area of freedom
being represented with more empathy. It should be pointed out that,
In the TV series ″The Walking Dead″, the It is a genre that fundamentally, a game creates a space
survivors actually say ″We are the walking is always linked for freedom within the everyday world.
dead″. Here, the zombie is no longer just the “It is a margin for manoeuvre that we open
entity to be fought, but the natural disaster
to anxieties and up in the space of reality. We see here
with which one must learn to live, to rebuild fears deeply rooted the analogy with the notion of ″play″ in
a society. So the genre is evolving alongside a mechanism, in the sense of a space of
the collective fears and the images we have
in society. Its re- freedom allowing the cogs to turn (analogy
of the end of the world: nuclear war, climate emergence is linked developed in particular by philosopher
change, pandemic, etc. There was also an Jacques Henriot). Do these types of games
increase in sales of the game Plague Inc., a
to the social crises promote awareness? Hard to say. On the
pandemic simulation game, when Covid-19 we are experiencing. other hand, they have a cathartic or at
arrived. ” least reassuring quality. In these games,
we control the direction that events take.
A game offers us the tools to create these
The apocalypse: such spaces of freedom that do not exist in
a practical subject Players more nimble reality. And that would certainly not exist in
the context of the end of the world. ”
Beyond societal trends, there is in in the event of a real
Madeleine Cense
particular a practical argument: end
of the world themes perfectly match crisis?
the requirements of video games. In looking at these games of survival,
These are both gameplay and narrative resourcefulness and extreme moral
requirements. “Since video games are an choices (“do I save my childhood friend
interactive medium, you cannot do without or humanity? “, as in Life is Strange),
player action. This is the concept of an
the question of the effect on players
action imperative (developed in particular
inevitably arises. Through playing, do
by researcher Sébastien Genvo). And this
they sharpen their survival skills and
explains that fiction that presuppose
action can be much more easily adapted their ability to make choices that are as
into video games. Of course, combat, crucial as they are complex? In short, are
escape or survival are better suited to they training for real-life situations? “The
them than nostalgia or melancholy. The question of the effect of video games on
post-apocalyptic world is fairly easy to players has been around for a long time. It
grasp because it is a setting with a pretext has always been asked, either negatively –
for action: you fight either to gain your they were very quickly suspected of causing
freedom, or to rebuild a society”, points out violence, without there being any consensus © Jean-Louis Wertz
Fanny Barnabé. on the answer – or enthusiastically – they
could facilitate learning or serve as training Fanny Barnabé, FNRS
Post-apocalyptic worlds also have the big Postdoctoral Researcher, Liège
advantage of being perfectly suited to for certain situations, which has also not
been categorically proven. So, whether Game Lab, ULiège
the storytelling method of video games.
“In a video game, you do not know where post-apocalyptic games could be a training
the player will go and, as a result, the story ground for ethical decisions... I doubt that
told by the game cannot be completely making moral choices in a game can be
linear. It is therefore fragmented and compared to making choices in reality
distributed throughout the game. And this because video games are characterised as Games have a cathartic
works well with apocalyptic worlds because entertaining and fictional environments,
the player collects objects and messages in which the actions performed are ″fake″; or at least reassuring
nature. We control the
- FNRS.NEWS 119 - JUNE 2020
here and there. This fragmentation of the these are game environments one of the
narrative is easy to justify: you cannot have fundamental principles of which is that it
access to the whole narrative because the is always possible to go back and make
direction that events
world is destroyed. It is therefore normal a different choice”, points out the Liège take and we create a
for the narrative to be dispersed through Game Lab researcher.
documents, recordings and objects”, she space of freedom for
explains. And by using them, the player ourselves.
can gradually reconstruct the story of
what has or has not happened. This
technique is not only specific to post-
apocalyptic games, but it is particularly
useful for them. 9An inexorable
R E P O R T A P O C A LY P S E
demographic
decline?
with
Thierry
Eggerickx
“Demographic decline is nothing new! ” For
Thierry Eggerickx, FNRS Research Fellow at the
UCLouvain Demographic Research Centre, it is
rather the two centuries of rapid growth that we
have just experienced that constitute “an anomaly,
a parenthesis in the history of humanity”.
O Three phases Individualisation
ver the course of millennia,
demographic change has been
characterised by very low growth In the 19th century, in the context of For Thierry Eggerickx, the key factor
rates, i.e. a small gap between otherwise a radical change in Western societies in the demographic transition is
very high birth and mortality rates, – resulting from industrialisation, therefore the decline in the birth rate,
with alternating peaks and period of urbanisation, development of means which occurred in Belgium, and more
collapse “relating to the ″three scourges″: of transport, de-Christianisation, etc. specifically in Wallonia, in around 1875-
famines, epidemics and wars”, explains 1880, in response in particular to the
– the demographic transition began.
Thierry Eggerickx. The objective of major economic depression of 1873-
“This phenomenon is taking place in three
the demographic system of ancient 1892. “This first major crisis in industrial
phases. During the first period, between society triggered wait-and-see reflexes:
populations was to ensure the survival
of humanity by maintaining the balance 1800 and 1870-1880, mortality decreased there was no question of having children
between the growth of the population while the birth rate remained high, resulting before knowing how the situation would
and the available resources. Any threat to in strong population growth. In the second develop. Within a generation and without
this balance led to the use of economic phase, from 1880 until the inter-war period, modern contraceptives, these populations
strategies – land clearing, deforestation, fertility and birth rates began to decline, reduced their birth rate by half! And the
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the development of activities parallel to but, since mortality continued to decline, same thing happened in the inter-war
agriculture, the introduction of high-yield growth rates remained relatively high. And period, with fertility levels equivalent to
crops, such as potatoes, etc. – but also the third phase is the one we are currently those of today: 1.8 children per woman.
demographic strategies. “Above all, this experiencing in most Western countries, But the demographic transition is also the
involved an increase in the marriage age including Belgium, with similarly low birth transition from an era in which the birth
for women to 26 or 27, or even 30 in the rate and marriage rate were subject to
and mortality rates, and therefore low
event of a serious crisis, but also permanent a kind of moral control by society to the
or even negative growth rates in certain
celibacy, imposed on a certain number current situation, in which birth rate norms,
countries and regions. ” in particular the choice of the number
of young women and young men through
family, social and religious control. ”
10Rather than advocating a reduction or even a
ban on births, production and consumption
of children and the age at which one has patterns should be changed. The polluters are
them, are the result of individual choices, in
competition with other options: education, not babies, but cars!
career prospects, as well as the purchase of
a house, a car, etc.”
Lag effect
Beginning in France at the end of the
Retirement at 80
18th century, the decline in birth rate was This is especially the case since negative
interrupted after the Second World War, growth and a decreasing birth rate can
with the baby boom, before declining have negative effects on the functioning
again more sharply in the 1970s. “It has of our societies. So, in a pay-as-you-go
now extended to most countries on the pension system, such as in Japan and
planet (even to sub-Saharan Africa, despite Korea, but also in France, Germany, and
a lag effect). And neither the projections of Belgium, who will pay for pensions and
the United Nations nor those of the Planning health care? “Japan, for example, which is
Bureau in Belgium foresee its reversal. By today the country with the oldest population
hierry Eggerickx, FNRS
T
2050, the population is expected to decline on the planet, with 28% of its people aged Senior Research Associate,
by at least 1% in 55 countries or regions, over 65 (compared with 19% in Belgium), GéDAP, UCLouvain
26 of which could experience a decrease plans to raise the retirement age to 70, or
of at least 10%. In China, for example, the even 80 for those who wish it, in particular
population is expected to decline by 31 civil servants. And, because pensions are From the bottom up
million, or more than 2%.” clearly insufficient to live on, many older
According to the Planning Bureau’s
people are already forced to work, which
projections, the population of Belgium,
Cars or babies? partly blocks up the system, impeding young
people’s access to employment. ”
which today is 11,430,000, is expected
to reach 12,700,000 in 2070. “For this
Is this a good or bad thing? “For me, it
to happen, the birth rate must not fall,
is neither one nor the other. But this is
obviously an important topic, consisting
Immigration and also life expectancy must continue to
increase at its current rate (with an increase
of many issues. In 2017, the manifesto If Belgium is not there yet, it is not only of 0.2-0.3 years per year). However, the
of the World Scientists’ Warning to because its birth rate, although lower current, particularly worrying, context of
Humanity alliance, published in the journal than the generation replacement level an environmental and health crisis is not
BioScience and signed by more than 15,000 (2.1 children/woman), is still relatively conducive to procreation. Moreover, a
researchers from 184 countries, deemed “high” (1.7 children/woman, compared to recent study showed that increases in life
population growth the main factor behind 1.3 for Japan and 1.1 for Korea), but also expectancy vary widely across social groups
environmental and societal threats: the because three-quarters of its population and that social inequalities in relation to
more human beings there are, the greater growth is due to immigration, to which mortality have increased in recent decades.
the number of consumers, cars, pesticides, Japan and Korea are firmly closed. For example, comparing the 5% of the
etc. And, in fact, a recent study showed “Belgium has always needed migration, for population at the bottom of the social
that, if we reach 1.5 children per woman, economic reasons: in the inter-war period, ladder with the 5% at the top results in a
which corresponds to the "low scenario" when Belgians no longer wanted to go down difference in life expectancy of 14 years for
of the United Nations, CO2 emissions will the mines, we ″imported″ Italians, North men and 10 for women! ” To secure our
fall by 10% by 2055, and by 35% by 2100. Africans and Poles to do the work that the future, we must therefore move towards
But these neo-Malthusian ideas are also Belgians no longer wanted. However, today, an egalitarian and multicultural society
severely criticised: rather than advocating many Belgians see immigrants as a threat, that rejects exclusion, ghettoisation
a reduction or even a ban on births, even though they are essential in the hotel and marginalisation. It remains to be
production and consumption patterns and catering sector, the care sector, the seen whether the change in philosophy
should be changed. The polluters are not construction sector, etc." required by this evolution is within our
babies, but cars! ”
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reach…
Marie-Françoise Dispa
“ The current, particularly worrying, context of an
environmental and health crisis is not conducive
to procreation.
11The theory of the great
replacement or the
R E P O R T A P O C A LY P S E
obsession with foreigners
with François Gemenne and
Jean-Philippe Schreiber
Among alarmist scenarios, there is one that,
peddled by the extreme right, feeds violence that
is no longer theoretical: the gradual replacement
of the European population by an immigrant
population and, in the process, the decline of
“Western values”. Two FNRS researchers, Jean-
Philippe Schreiber, a historian, and François
Gemenne, a political scientist, analyse the origin
and drivers of this discourse, which is admittedly Historical enemies
euphemistic in Belgium but nevertheless Formulated by the French philosopher
Renaud Camus in 2010, the term “great
dangerous in a context where, with an epidemic replacement” is recent, but the concept is
crisis in mind, foreigners are quickly regaining an old one. “The rejection of Islam, which
has been at work for some twenty years,
their historical status of a “stain” on the national draws as much from the current geopolitical
identity. situation in Europe as from its history”,
analyses Jean-Philippe Schreiber, FNRS
Research Director at ULB. “The collective
unconscious remembers the wars waged
by the Ottoman Empire in the 16th and 17th
I
t is one of the most common second element is cultural or religious: centuries against a Europe that developed
ruminations in history: the fear that a “This theory combines fear of demographic a fear of the creeping Islamisation of
foreign population will imperceptibly decline with fear of a disintegration of Christian society”. Basically, Islamophobia
work its way into our society, like a Western values and culture”, observes the is fuelled by the same tradition of fear
that fuels anti-Semitism. “Since the end
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poison, and transform it both biologically political scientist. Behind this discourse
(with respect to race) and in terms of lies a conspiratorial dimension: it is of the Middle Ages, our Western societies
values. The so-called “great replacement” thought that the replacement process is have marginalised Jews, vectors of change,
theory consists of attributing this deliberate. Politicians and scientists – the making them scapegoats for serious
intention to Muslims, based on two globalised intellectual elites – are thought economic, social and health crises. For
arguments. One is demographic: “In to be organising the phenomenon example, during the great plague of the 14th
most European countries, we are seeing a because they need a “replaceable” man century, Jews were accused of poisoning
decline in birth rates, explains François of the people, stripped of any ethnic and wells and introducing the disease. Whether
Gemenne, FNRS Research Associate at cultural specificity, who can be moved it involved filth or vermin, the Jews were
ULiège, while at the same time these states on the chessboard at will according to responsible for all the misfortunes of the
are recording substantial immigration from political and economic interests. world and had to be eliminated. Hence
12 North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. ” The expulsions and massacres that have takenYou cannot counter crisis linked to COVID-19 are likely to So, while identifying prejudices and
irrational fears with reinforce this tendency that some already contradicting false allegations about
have of switching to ″survivalist″ mode.” immigration is a necessary step, it is
rational arguments. And the historian confirms: “In times of not enough to combat the popularity of
crisis, democratic vulnerability increases, far-right theories, according to François
resistant individuals become sensitive Gemenne, who believes that “we will also
to social anxiety and believe extremist have to build a new narrative”. “We must
discourse. Epidemics have often intensified propose a positive narrative showing that
place throughout the modern era”, recalls the search for a scapegoat and the immigration is a structural transformation
the historian. At the end of the 19th obsessive fear of foreigners”, notes Jean- of our societies that, by conducting it in
century, racial and political anti-Semitism Philippe Schreiber. an organised way, we can make the most
replaced theological and popular anti- of. ” This is a real challenge, which he will
Semitism, and inspired the Nazi theorists From the figures to address at the start of the literary season
with his next book “On a tous un ami noir”.
of the following century. This then led to
extermination. the narrative Céline Rase
So what is the remedy for this evil?
From words to actions Specialists can put forward scientific
arguments against each of the arguments
These fears, transformed into fantasies, of the great replacement: “It is today
are therefore dangerous when actions estimated that immigration accounts for
accompany the discourse. Thus, the only one-fifth of the growth of the European
theory of the great replacement is more population: most of this growth is therefore
catastrophic due to the scenarios it still due to birth rates, even though they
engenders than the one it denounces. are in decline”, François Gemenne adds. Epidemics have often
In Belgium, while it is expressed by a “Although the migration phenomenon is
narrow section of the population which marked by peaks in the influx of refugees intensified the search
sometimes does not even know its and dramatic images, the fact remains that for a scapegoat and
name, which lets itself be persuaded refugees represent only around 10% of the obsessive fear of
by certain journalists on French migrants and that international migration is
television channels, this theory has little less directed towards Europe than towards foreigners.
resonance in political circles. “This is other countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
due to the fact that there are very few far- Finally, the theory is wrong to assume
right ideologues in our country”, explains that the immigrant population maintains
François Gemenne, who nevertheless the birth rate of its country of origin once
notes the dangerous nature of this settled in Europe. ” And what about the
discourse on an international level, “it’s annihilation of “our” Western civilisation?
a real source of inspiration for violence”. “Talking about a decline in values is… a
“The need to protect Western civilisation value judgement”, the scientist replies.
from foreign invasion is an idea that “Societies change over time and history,
permeates the writings of far-right terrorists cultural practices are transformed by
throughout the world”. The manifesto of a series of developments – look at how
Brenton Tarrant, the perpetrator of the the internet has impacted our practices
Christchurch massacre in New Zealand and relationships! The fear of the great
in March 2019, is actually entitled “The replacement conveys an imaginary ideal
Great Replacement”. A few months later, past, a kind of nostalgia for a bygone time
Jean-Philippe Schreiber,
the killer in El Paso, Texas, used the that never actually existed. ”
FNRS Research Director, CIERL,
same theory as inspiration to commit
But putting forward figures and facts ULB
his “hate crime” against Mexicans. In the
United States and Australia, the grand is not enough. “Irrespective of the
replacement theory has taken a broader reality, the imagination is more powerful.
and more extreme turn denouncing a Deconstruction discourses do not work
genuine “white genocide” perpetrated very well because they do not use the
from time to time by “invaders.” same rhetorical register”, the historian
observes. “You cannot counter irrational
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In the future, this discourse could inspire fears with rational arguments”, agrees
more people because circumstances the political scientist. Especially since
could strengthen it. “There may be a kind statistics, which are often national, do not
of natural connection between theories reflect the heterogeneity of the realities
of collapse and the theory of the great of populations. “You could assert that
replacement”, the political scientist in Belgium, only 16% of the population
analyses. “Pushed to the limit of their consists of immigrants. You would be right.
political logic, theories of collapse involve But the father who lives in Saint-Josse, and
withdrawal into oneself, identity seclusion who sees that his children’s class is made up François Gemenne,
and rejection of the outside, which is seen of 85% immigrants, will not believe you. ” FNRS Research Associate, Hugo
as a threat. The climate crisis or the health Observatory, ULiège 13Collapsology:
R E P O R T A P O C A LY P S E
explaining the term
with Chloé Deligne
“C
ollapsology is a term proposed These questions are often traced back to
While humans aspire by Pablo Servigne and Raphaël the publication of the Meadows Report of
Stevens in their book “Comment the Club of Rome, The Limits to Growth,
to peace and security, tout peut s’effondrer” published in 2015. It in 1972, but recent historical research has
historical and even is based on the English word , ″collapse″. considerably revisited this “origin story” of
prehistoric societies According to these authors, collapsology concerns about the sustainability of the
is “a transdisciplinary exercise to study capitalist economic model. Indeed, from
seem doomed to the collapse of our industrial societies″, the early decades of the establishment of
endure political, social, explains Chloé Deligne, historian and the industrial capitalist system in the 19th
FNRS Research Associate at ULB. century, voices were raised in concern about
economic or ecological
or to denounce the effects of this model on
crises. Are today’s
crises “only” cyclical
Dual temporality human lives and environments. These voices
have today been put in context, in particular
This proposal is part of a body of work through the research of Serge Audier
phenomena, like the that questions how and why societies and Jean-Baptiste Fressoz. Yet the work
growth rings of a tree, collapse. This work is written by authors, on collapse is also part of a long period
of fundamental examination of human
or a sign of the end of most often American, English or more
recently French or Belgian, and Western societies with respect to their own future.
our time, as predicted by in any case, and is the result of the worry This recurring and old examination has
“collapsology”? and anxiety caused by the accelerated been fuelled by the production of myths,
deterioration of terrestrial environments, apocalyptic narratives and catastrophic
a process that has been underway for predictions that serve as reflections or
nearly two centuries (loss of biodiversity, deterrents for the societies that create them,
global warming, acidification of the and must lead them to adopt new moral
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oceans, soil impoverishment, etc. behaviours. ”
resulting from massive pollution, the
ever-increasing consumption of fossil
fuels, the overexploitation of certain
Four points of
resources, deforestation). criticism
“This work is part of a dual temporality. In For the historian, however, there is
the short time of ″our era″ that, since the no moral lesson intrinsic to what is
1970s, has revived old questions about incorrectly seen as the end of time. “We
the limitations of a socio-economic model can criticise this concept of collapse. One:
that became hegemonic in the 20th century, it adopts an anthropocentric point of
14 based on the exploitation of fossil fuels. view, i.e. one that is only interested in theThe work on collapse is
part of a long period of
fundamental examination
of human societies with
respect to their own future.
This recurring examination
has been fuelled by the
production of myths and
is established over several generations is catastrophic predictions
not that of an epidemic that can have a
radical impact over one or two seasons. The that serve as reflections or
question ultimately arises of whether the deterrents for the societies
very concept of collapse is useful. Should that create them.
preference not be given to more precise
terms, such as destructuring, disintegration,
fragmentation or disappearance, to
be clearly described in each situation
observed? ”
and that people have wanted to apply
The choice of to the entire list of classic ″collapses″
narratives (Mayan civilisation, Roman Empire, Indus
Valley, etc.), is at the very least reductive.
Here the researcher reveals an Numerous studies, highlighting the
underlying mechanism: “Is the concept diversity of climate impacts depending on
of “collapse” not rather the cornerstone the responses of societies, are constantly
of new apocalyptic narratives that “tempering” the enthusiasm of climate neo-
should encourage us to adopt new moral determinists. In other words, for example,
collapse of human societies. Two: a strong behaviours? Throughout history, there a drought of similar intensity will not have
have been profound transformations that the same effects depending on whether the
tendency to universalise the perspective,
have led to the disappearance of complex society that endures it is highly hierarchical
which is mainly that of a Western middle
socio-political systems. Various examples or more egalitarian”.
class. Among collapsologists, the thinking is
haunt our imaginations: the disappearance
often on a global-world scale and it sees a “Ultimately, it is absurd to think that
of the Mayan civilisation, of the prosperous
homogeneous, undifferentiated humanity. ″everything″ can collapse. There is no such
societies of the Indus Valley or of the Roman
The subject is an abstract and globalising thing as a clean slate in history. Despite
Empire. While these ″disappearances″
“we” that leaves no room for differences many threats to our way of life and the
occupy our imagination more, this is also
between societies in the north or south, ruins left behind by two centuries of
due to the narratives we have chosen to
east or west, or between classes and social extractive industrial capitalism, many things
make of them. Hundreds more historical
groups within societies themselves. In can nevertheless be reinvented. But it is
cases could be added to the list. The fall
other words, in their vision of “collapse”, important to ask ourselves what we want to
of this Chinese dynasty or that African
collapsologists display a glaring disdain, continue or reinvent and, on the contrary,
kingdom, the destruction of Native American
even culpable blindness, with respect to what we want to abandon, what we want
societies, the disappearance of the Mongol
social inequalities and asymmetric or to take care of and are ready to fight for,
Empire, etc. And if these narratives have not
domination/exploitation relationships. and what we want to do without. These are
managed to find a place in our ″collapse″
Three: a “naturalisation” of the phenomena choices and not laws of nature”.
imagination, it is because they have not
of decline, i.e. their assimilation to the laws been presented as narratives of collapse. Frederic Soumois
of nature to the detriment of a detailed This illustrates the fact that these narratives
analysis of the social and political dynamics are not chosen or constructed at random;
implemented in times of crisis. Four: an they must correspond to what one wants to
approximation in the very definition of the see or demonstrate. ”
concept of collapse, which leads dynamics
with very different drivers being placed on “In this respect, the recent enthusiasm
for explanations on global warming (a
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an equal footing”.
reflection the concerns of our time) that
“The definition of Servigne and Stevens have come mainly from earth sciences,
is unusable because it loses sight of a
fundamental concept, that of the scale
of analysis (what space? what time?).
Similarly, it ignores the variable interactions
between socio-political systems, economic
systems and ecological systems, etc. and These are choices and
the different temporalities: the timing of Chloé Deligne,
climate change is not the timing of a bad not laws of nature. Research Associate,
harvest; the timing of demography that SOCIAMM, ULB 15You can also read
