Global Market Forecast 2003-2022
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Global Market Forecast
2003-2022
December 2003
The Airbus Global Market Forecast
may also be found on the Internet at
http://www.airbus.com
AIRBUS S.A.S.
31707 BLAGNAC CEDEX, FRANCE
REFERENCE CB 390.0008/02
DECEMBER 2003
PRINTED IN FRANCE
© AIRBUS S.A.S. 2003
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
AN EADS JOINT COMPANY
WITH BAE SYSTEMS
The statements made herein do not constitute an offer.
They are based on the assumptions shown and are
expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for
these statements are not shown the Company will be
pleased to explain the basis thereof.Contents :
1. Forecast highlights 4
2. Introducing the Global Market Forecast 8
3. Impact of the crisis 10
4. Demand for air travel 13
5. Air transport operational evolution 17
6. Passenger fleet renewal 19
7. World passenger fleet development 21
8. Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries: 23
• Mainline single-aisles 26
• Small twin-aisles 28
• Intermediate twin-aisles 30
• Large aircraft 32
9. Air cargo forecast 35
Appendices
A. Airlines & cargo carriers studied 46
B. Detailed passenger traffic forecast 50
C. Detailed passenger fleet forecast 53
D. Detailed cargo traffic forecast 55
E. Freighter fleet forecast 58
Global Market Forecast 2003
31. Forecast highlights
This edition of the Airbus Global The major predictions of the 2003
Forecast covers the evolution through GMF are that during the period 2003-
2022 of the fleet of mainline 2022 :
passenger jets with at least 100 seats
and freighters operated by airlines
outside the Commonwealth of Worldwide demand for
Independent States. air travel will grow
Following the rapid termination of strongly
major conflict in Iraq, the faster-than-
After three years of negative or at the
expected recovery from the SARS
best weak growth triggered by the
outbreak should open the way to a
current crisis, traffic will rebound
rapid worldwide recovery of air
powerfully to resume a more normal
travel, which has been severely
growth trend averaging just over 5%
affected by these events.
per year. Traffic growth will vary
Even as traffic recovers, creating a substantially between different air
need for additional capacity, airline travel markets. Some - including the
revenues – eroded by deep price US domestic market - have matured,
discounting – are likely to lag. but revenue passenger-kilometres
Nevertheless the potential for further (RPKs) will grow strongly on routes
growth in demand for air travel, serving the dynamic Asia-Pacific
especially among citizens of the region as well as on those operated by
developing world, is such that, absent low-cost “no-frills” airlines. By 2022
another major crisis, Airbus global RPKs will be at two-&-two-
forecasters continue to predict a bright thirds times their current level. During
long-term future for the civil aircraft the same period freight tonne-
manufacturing and support industries. kilometres (FTKs) will more than
Increasing cost and competitive triple, growing at a strong average
pressures, generated partly by a new annual 5.7%;
generation of aggressive “no-frills”
carriers, are driving airlines to
consolidate their networks so as to Price will remain the
exploit economies of scale, minimise #1 demand driver
environmental impact and provide Until recently, air travel demand has
smaller communities with more been driven largely by convenience.
service choices. But in the harsh new airline world
Despite the impact of the worst crisis travellers (or those who buy their
ever suffered by the world’s airlines, tickets) now base their travel
carriers have continued to place decisions primarily on price. In
orders for the very large and response, airline managers have
economical A380, reflecting a vote of modified their route networks in such
confidence not just in this exciting a way as to improve efficiency, and
new aircraft but also in the very future the total number of city-pairs served
of air transport itself. by mainline jets has stagnated. This
has established a clear trend for the
future;
Global Market Forecast 2003
4Forecast highlights
The capacity of both The airlines will offer
passenger and more seats per flight
freighter aircraft will Infrastructure capacity constraints
more than double mean that the numbers of flights will
be unable to keep pace with the
The number of seats in service will growth of traffic. Consequently
increase from 1,944,992 to 4,527,891 average seats per departure will have
while the capacity of the active to increase from 163 to 200;
dedicated freighter fleet will increase
from 75,630 to 196,948 tonnes;
The active passenger
The number of flights fleet will increase by
offered on passenger 90%
routes will double To provide the required increase in
departures, the number of passenger
Despite current levels of congestion aircraft in service will increase from
and delays, this represents a more 10,789 to 20,554;
rapid rise than in the past, and will
present a major challenge to the
world’s airports and air traffic 40% of the current
management systems. If the active fleet will be
infrastructure proves unable to
accommodate so many flights, airlines retired from
will have to acquire larger aircraft; commercial service
Having already stored many of their
The world jetliner fleet will grow by more
superfluous aircraft, airlines will still
than 11,500 aircraft
retire 4,914 of their older, noisier and
less efficient passenger and cargo jets;
15,632 Delivered 831
16,463
Traffic growth and
fleet renewal will
Passenger Freighter require delivery of
Fleet Fleet 15,632 new passenger
Converted
Recycled
2,019
aircraft
3,197 Almost two thirds of these will be
Retired
3,848 1,066 single-aisle types in nominal size
4,914
categories from 100 to 210 seats;
Global Market Forecast 2003
5Forecast highlights
North America first in Nearly 16,500 new aircraft will be
fleet size, Europe first delivered
in deliveries
20-year deliveries
The frequency-driven airlines of
Mainline single-aisle aircraft like the
North America will continue to Airbus A318, A319, A320 and A321
10,184
operate more aircraft than all other Small twin-aisle aircraft like the Airbus
1,782
A330-200
regions’ airlines, but less mature Intermediate twin-aisle aircraft like the
2,962
markets will grow more strongly and Airbus A330-300 and A340
the airlines of Europe will take the Very large and economical aircraft like
the Airbus A380
1,535
greatest number of deliveries; Total aircraft 16,463
Asia-Pacific airlines
will dominate the
market for large The 16,463 new
aircraft passenger aircraft and
By 2022 60% of the world fleet of freighters represent a
very large passenger aircraft will be
operated by the airlines of the Asia-
business volume of
Pacific region alone; approximately $1.6
trillion*
The active world The largest volume of business will be
generated by single-aisle aircraft.
freighter fleet will Large passenger aircraft and freighters
grow to 3,283 aircraft will account for almost 20% of the
with an average total business ;
capacity of 60 tonnes
A business worth $1.6 trillion
from 1,499 aircraft
with an average 50.4 2003 $ (billion)
700
640
tonnes capacity 600
This increase of 1,784 aircraft, 500 440
coupled with the need to retire 1,066 400 339
aircraft when they reach the end of 300
196
their lives, will create a need for 200
acquisition of a total of 2,850 100
freighters, of which 831 will be 0
factory-built freighters and 2,019 Mainline single- Small twin-aisle Intermediate twin- Large aicraft
aisle aisle
passenger-to-freighter conversions;
40% 12% 27% 21%
* Terminology used throughout this report:
billion = 109, trillion = 1012
Global Market Forecast 2003
6Forecast highlights
Top Ten end-user nations
The greatest demand
for passenger aircraft
Passenger aircraft delivered By $ value (billion)
will come from airlines
in the United States,
1. United States 5,211 United States 388.5
2. People’s Republic of China 1,530 People’s Republic of China 175.5
3. United Kingdom 1,115 United Kingdom 113.3 the People’s Republic
4. Germany 853 Japan 95.5
of China and the
United Kingdom
5. Japan 682 Germany 77.4
6. Canada 514 France 52.0
7. France 485 Republic of Korea 46.7 Almost half of all the new passenger
8. Brazil 464 Canada 44.9 aircraft delivered, accounting for 45%
9. Spain 411 Singapore 43.9 of the total dollar value, will be
10. Italy 380 Brazil 42.5 needed by airlines in these three
nations alone.
Key forecast parameters
Key forecast
parameters attest the
Passenger a/c 100 seats and above End 2002 End 2022
reasonableness of the
forecast’s results
World RPKs (billion) 3,165.7 8,473.1
World ASKs (billion) 4,514.2 11,407.3
Number of aircraft 10,789 20,554 To facilitate understanding of the
Number of installed seats 1,944,992 4,527,891 GMF and comparison with other
Number of departures (000) 15,864.8 31,510.0 forecasts, the table presents the values
Seats per departure 163 200 of eight key parameters at the
Average flight distance (km) 1,437 1,516 beginning and end of the forecast
Block hours per aircraft per year 3,450 3,739 period. From these, the corresponding
values of other operational parameters
(such as average speed and size) can
be easily derived. These numbers and
the relationships between them also
give a useful test of the
reasonableness of this (or any other)
forecast’s results.
Global Market Forecast 2003
72. Introducing the Global Market
Forecast
The 2003 edition of Airbus’ Global categories and contribute seats to each
Market Forecast (GMF) predicts the on a basis inversely proportional to its
numbers and capacities of passenger distance from that category. A 160-
jets and dedicated freighters that will seat A320, for example, would
be needed to accommodate traffic contribute 96 (60%) of its seats to the
growth and allow fleet renewal by 150-seater category and 64 (40%) of
airlines and cargo carriers outside the its seats to the 175-seater category.
Commonwealth of Independent States This ensures that at every point in the The GMF is
during the twenty-year period 2003- forecast the numbers of aircraft a “bottom-
2022. Recognising the potential exactly match the projected flight up” forecast
business opportunity represented by frequencies, and the numbers of seats of pure
the airlines of the CIS, Airbus provide exactly the forecast capacity. demand for
continues to work towards developing Freighters are assigned to the different aircraft in
a reliable forecast for these airlines, categories according to their 18 size
and looks forward to including it in payload/range capability. categories.
future editions of the GMF.
The GMF is a “bottom- Demand is forecast in
up” forecast 14 passenger
In order to avoid the errors inherent in
calculating from global averages, the
categories …
GMF projects the year-by-year • Mainline single-aisle (100-, 125-,
evolution of passenger traffic, flight 150-, 175- & 210-seaters (1))
frequencies and aircraft capacity on • Small twin-aisle (250-seaters)
each of a total of 9,188 individual • Intermediate twin-aisle (300-, 350-
one-way airport-pair route sectors in & 400-seaters)
140 distinct domestic, regional and • Large (450-, 500-, 600-, 800- &
intercontinental submarkets. Similar 1,000-seaters)
projections are made for a total of 145
directional air cargo submarkets.
These route-by-route projections are
then consolidated into the regional
and global fleet forecasts presented in
this summary document.
The GMF is a pure
forecast of demand
It projects demand for aircraft and
seats in a total of 14 “neutral” seating
and four “neutral” cargo capacity
categories. These may be thought of
(1)
as “buckets” of seats (or tonnes of This category covers the majority of
mainline single-aisle aircraft, although at
lift). Any particular passenger aircraft, the bottom part of the forecast some
with its own specific seating demand will be satisfied by 90+-seater
arrangement, will fall between two regional jets.
Global Market Forecast 2003
8Introducing the Global Market Forecast
The GMF applies this approach to the
The GMF covers 407 passenger airlines … active jet fleets of a total of 407
individual passenger airlines and 150
North Am erica
43 airlines Europe Middle East
cargo carriers.
4,269 aircraft 156 airlines 13 airlines
2,942 aircraft 297 aircraft
… and in 4 freighter
categories
• Feeder : payload < 30 tonnes
Latin Am erica
& Caribbean
Africa (typically 22 tonnes)
57 airlines
49 airlines
737 aircraft
378 aircraft
Asia-Pacific • Regional : payload 30-60 tonnes
89 airlines
2,166 aircraft (typically 45 tonnes)
2002 active passenger fleet = 10,789 aircraft (100 seats and above) • Long-range : payload 30-80 tonnes
(typically 60 tonnes)
• Large : payload > 80 tonnes
(typically 120/110 tonnes,
new/converted)
… and 150 freighter operators
These airlines and cargo carriers,
grouped into six consolidated
North America
43 operators
Europe Middle East geographical regions, are listed in
29 operators 7 operators
978 freighters*
214 freighters* 11 freighters* Appendix A. The regions in this
summary are groupings of the sub-
regions listed in IATA reports.
Individual forecasts are developed for
the 278 larger airlines, and the GMF
Asia-Pacific
also includes a less detailed forecast at
Latin America Africa
& Caribbean 21 operators
29 operators the lower end of the passenger
21 operators 178 freighters*
67 freighters*
51 freighters* market, covering a total of 129
smaller airlines. This allows a better
2002 active freighter fleet = 1,499 freighters
* freighter domiciled in its last operator’s region
understanding of the potential market
penetration by aircraft like the
widebody single-aisle 100-seater
A318, and increases the number of
airlines covered by the GMF to 407
which between them account for 96%
of total world mainline capacity.
Global Market Forecast 2003
93. Impact of the crisis
This summary of the measures at airports, especially in the
USA, have diverted very short haul
GMF provides results passengers to other modes of The
only for the long term transport, and business travellers (or, question is
rather, those who make their travel
It presents Airbus’ vision of how the to what
decisions) as well as leisure travellers
world’s air transport system will have extent, and
have become increasingly sensitive to
evolved by 2022. However following how rapidly,
the price of the ticket.
recent events it would not be complete will demand
without some comment on the This has led airlines the world over to for air
anticipated impact of the crisis. discount their prices in an effort to travel climb
Historical precedents are of limited stimulate demand, and yields have back to the
use in assessing the extent and timing suffered accordingly. At the same previously
of the recovery in demand for air time travellers’ increasing sensitivity forecast
travel to be expected after the to price has contributed to the gains in levels.
unprecedented sequence of events market share obtained by a new
which has occurred during the past generation of aggressive low-cost
three years, including the “dot.com” carriers at the expense of the
collapse, the terrorist attacks in the traditional full-service airlines. In
US and elsewhere, the Afghan and response to these increasingly severe
Iraq conflicts and the SARS epidemic. cost pressures and competition,
However by studying the pattern of airlines are being driven even further
recovery following previous crises – to improve the efficiency of their
notably that following the previous route networks and to use low-unit-
Iraq war – and reviewing the cost aircraft.
evolution of successful efforts to
contain the SARS virus, Airbus
forecasters have developed their The crisis will shift long-term demand by
prediction of the likely profile of the one & a half years
subsequent recovery.
World annual traffic - trillion RPK
As inputs to its traffic growth models 1.5 years
ICAO total traffic
Airbus uses projections of economic 8
growth and other indices supplied by GMF 2000
the Global Insight (previously 6 GMF 2003
DRI•WEFA) Forecasting Group.
Following the crises of 2001 and 4
2003, Global Insight’s projected long-
3.3 years
term growth rates have in general 2
changed very little from the levels
they were predicting prior to 2001. 0
The question is to what extent, and 1990 2000 2010 2020
how rapidly, will demand for air
travel climb back to the previously
forecast levels. Some loss appears
inevitable, as more irksome security
Global Market Forecast 2003
10Impact of the crisis
The residual impact of The SARS epidemic,
the crises will delay too, has changed
traffic recovery to pre- people’s perception of
crisis (i.e. 2000) levels air travel
Airbus forecasters predict that total The collapse in travel demand has
world revenue passenger-kilometres been a psychological, not a medical,
(RPKs) carried by major airlines in phenomenon, so traffic will take a
2003 will be as much as 7% below while to recover even after all WHO
those carried in 2000. travel advisories have been lifted.
Still, the markets worst affected by However, historical evidence shows
the Iraq war and the SARS epidemic that demand for air travel is
in 2003 have accumulated a huge extraordinarily resilient, and Airbus
pent-up demand which will inevitably forecasters anticipate that, with
trigger a very strong traffic recovery demand stimulated by heavy price
during the next two years. discounting, the impact of the Iraq
As the world economy recovers war will continue to be felt over no
intensifying airline competition with more than a one-year period while the
more efficient aircraft will make air impact of SARS will last for two
travel affordable by more and more years. Thereafter - absent any other
people. The resurgence of the pent-up catastrophes - traffic will resume its
demand combined with a much more historical growth path.
favourable climate will drive the
industry into an exceptional short-
term growth period and the GMF Growth will be
anticipates that world RPKs will particularly strong in
increase by 15% from 2003 to 2004,
and by 9% from 2004 to 2005.
travel to and from Asia
The GMF predicts that Asia-US RPKs
will grow by 23% from 2003 to 2004
and by 18% from 2004 to 2005, while
Asia-Europe traffic will increase by
26% and 20% respectively. But even
with such a powerful rebound, world
RPKs will not recover to their pre-
crisis 2000 levels before some time in
2004, representing an observed shift
in the near-term air travel demand
curve to the right by some 3.3 years.
Global Market Forecast 2003
11Impact of the crisis
After this strong rebound, global Long-term passenger traffic growth rates
passenger traffic will follow a more compared
normal long-term growth trend, with
growth averaging marginally more The highlight number is up,
than 5.0% per year over the twenty- but the growth forecast is in fact slightly down
year period 2002-2022. GMF 2002 GMF 2003
Comparisons with Airbus’ previous RPKs (trillions) RPKs (trillions)
forecast of 4.7% per year growth from 3,264.2 2000
2000 to 2020 are distorted by the 3,340.2 3,165.7 (-5.2%)
2002
actual reduction in world RPKs 4.7%
between 2000 and 2002. In fact, the 5.2% 5.1%
5.0%
previous forecast showed average 8,255.0 2020 7,769.8 (-5.9%)
RPK growth of 5.2% from 2002 to
2022 8,473.4
2020, compared with 5.1% for the
same period in the latest forecast;
Airbus forecasters estimate that the
events of 2003 will effectively reduce Airfreight traffic has
long-term growth in air travel by
approximately 0.1% per year. been hit by the crisis
Airbus’ current forecast of world less than passenger
RPKs in 2020 is 5.9% lower than its traffic
previous projection, representing a
long-term “loss” due to the crisis of
Air cargo has been less affected by
1.5 years’ traffic growth. Especially in
the crisis than passenger traffic.
the US, more irksome security
Because airfreight has become such
procedures and stricter control of
an important driver of industrial
travel expenditure have caused a
growth, Airbus believes the cargo
reduction in travel volume that will
market will recover strongly, and that
never be recovered.
in the longer term the air cargo
transport system will prove to have
benefited from the accelerated
retirement of older, inefficient and
noisy aircraft triggered by the crisis.
Global Insight’s current long-term
forecasts of import and export
volumes are generally more optimistic
than their forecasts issued in 2002.
Consequently, Airbus has increased
its predicted 20-year average annual
freight tonne-kilometre (FTK) growth
rate by one quarter of a percentage
point.
Global Market Forecast 2003
124. Demand for air travel
History shows that In particular more and more travel
decisions are now based on the
demand for air travel availability of tickets at an affordable
is remarkably resilient price. This has been brilliantly
Although some markets have largely exploited by a new generation of
matured the prospects for long-term “low-cost” carriers so that the full-
air travel growth remain bright; service airlines now find themselves
especially in developing markets. The under unprecedented cost pressures.
current usage of air transport by the This will have profound implications
citizens of India and the PRC is both for the way in which the route
respectively just 1% and 2½% of that system is structured and for the types
by citizens of the US. Air travel of aircraft which are needed.
worldwide will continue to grow
strongly as the wealth of these
developing nations grows and it A hub system reduces
becomes affordable by more and more congestion & costs as
of their huge populations.
well as expanding
service choices
Demand will be Compared with a point-to-point route
increasingly driven by system, a hub-&-spoke system can
affordability significantly reduce costs and
congestion as well as the
In the past, growth in RPKs has been
environmental impact of air transport.
very tightly correlated with economic
By consolidating traffic loads between
(GDP) growth. But in recent years the
different origins and destinations it
causality of this relationship has
allows more passengers to be
become weaker and other demand
transported through a congested air
drivers have become more important.
traffic system at a reduced cost which
Hubbing drastically reduces congestion & has become probably the single most
offers secondary cities more service choices important economic factor driving
airline profitability. In addition, hub
Fragmented Hubbed
systems can provide smaller
communities with a greatly increased
B
B
number of service choices.
A
A
No. of cities : n n
No. of connections : n (n -1) 2 (n -1)
Economies
Economiesof
ofscale
scalereduce
reducethe
thecost
costof
oftransporting
transportingaapassenger
passenger
across
acrossthe
thenetwork
network
Global Market Forecast 2003
13Demand for air travel
The number of non-
stop services has
reached a saturation
point
Major airlines have recognised these
advantages. As a result since 1996 Number of city pairs served has stagnated
fewer non-stop services have been 2,000 15,000
opened than have been closed after
1,500 14,000
proving unprofitable. After a period
when airlines experimented with
Routes dropped / added
Total number of routes
1,000 13,000
services linking almost all possible
500 12,000
combinations of cities, the global
route network seems to have reached 0 11,000
a point of saturation. Moreover, the -500 10,000
bulk of air travel will continue to be
generated by the concentrations of -1,000 9,000
population, business and industry in -1,500 8,000
and around the major cities, and the 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
*Source : OAG September data. Scheduled routes operated one or more years in a row.
great majority of passengers will be
carried over and through the major
hubs.
Air travel demand will Growing urban populations will need more
become increasingly A380s
concentrated 21.15
31.85
As urbanisation increases, the 20.4
36.0
21.6 24.9 Seoul
numbers of people living in major 44.0
34.9
Istanbul 29.1
cities and agglomerations is 20.8 New York
30.6
Delhi
increasing more rapidly than the 20.75
29.6
20.8 23.7
Los Angeles Karachi Tokyo
general growth in population. Today Cairo 20.05
Mexico 21.0 Kolkata
just five cities or agglomerations 20.25
27.4
28.8
Manila
Osaka
worldwide have more than 20 million Dacca 23.9
Sao Paulo
inhabitants; based on current Mumbai
Jakarta
projections, by 2020 this number will
have grown to 16 – including 10 in Cities with population > 20 million
the dynamic Asia-Pacific region. Source: Thomas Brinkhoff: City Population, http://www.citypopulation.de 2002 2020
Global Market Forecast 2003
14Demand for air travel
Other developments
will have little impact
The GMF growth projections reflect
the expectation by Airbus forecasters
that high-speed rail systems will
continue to take a substantial share of
some highly-travelled short-haul
markets, but that their proliferation
will be severely constrained by the
huge infrastructure investment
required as well as by growing
environmental constraints.
Airbus also anticipates that the impact
on air travel of improved electronic
communications will be neutral, as the
stimulus they provide to business and
Travel growth will vary widely between personal contacts will counterbalance
different markets any direct substitution.
Average annual RPK growth rate (% p.a.) Top Ten markets Airbus does not anticipate that air
2002 - 2022
travel will be significantly affected by
9
unavailability of conventional
8
7 World
hydrocarbon fuels during the next
6
average twenty years, although in the long run
5% p.a.
5 increasing price and environmental
Europe - South America
pressures will rightly provide strong
Europe – Middle East
Domestic P.R.China
4
Domestic Europe
incentives to improve fuel efficiency.
Domestic Japan
3
Europe - Asia
Europe - USA
Intra Europe
Asia - USA
2
Dom. USA
1
0
% of world
World air travel will
2002 RPK
20.4% 9.4% 6.4% 3.3% 3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6%
recover from the crisis
& continue to grow
strongly
The twenty-year RPK growth
projections for each of the 140 travel
markets studied are listed in Appendix
B. Overall, the result is a prediction
that the RPKs carried by the world’s
major airlines will grow at an average
annual 5.0% to reach just under 8.5
trillion by 2022, compared with some
3.2 trillion in 2002.
Global Market Forecast 2003
15Demand for air travel
Lower-than-average
growth in the US Europe’s airlines will take the largest
market means it will share of world traffic
lose its historical Africa
Africa Middle East
Latin America 2% 3%
dominance
& Caribbean
3% Middle East North America
3% 5%
Latin America 29%
& Caribbean North America
Obviously this global average covers 5% 35%
a wide variety of growth rates in
Asia-Pacific
different air passenger markets, 24%
largely reflecting their varying
degrees of maturity. Airbus Asia-Pacific
Europe 28%
forecasters project twenty-year 30% Europe
33%
average annual growth ranging from World traffic World traffic
2.7% for the mature domestic US at end 2002 at end 2022
3.2 trillion RPK 8.5 trillion RPK
market to 8.5% for domestic routes in
China, which will be one of the great
dynamos for future growth in air
travel. As a result, by 2022 the North US domestic share of world traffic will
American domestic market will have decrease
lost its historical dominance, having US domestic
been overtaken by the dynamic Asia- US domestic 13%
20.4%
Pacific region as the world’s largest
air travel market. At the same time the
share of world RPKs carried by the
airlines of North America will have
been surpassed by that of airlines
based in Europe.
Despite declining World total
in 2002
World total
in 2022
growth rates, the 3.2 trillion RPK 8.5 trillion RPK
annual traffic
increment will
continue to increase
Between 2021 and 2022 world annual
RPKs will increase by 360 billion.
This single year’s incremental traffic
will be greater than the total of 351
billion RPKs reported by the world’s
airlines in 1969 when the 747 entered
service, and helps explain why the
A380, larger than anything flying
today, is already recognised as an
essential part of the world’s future air
transport system.
Global Market Forecast 2003
165. Air transport operational
evolution
The numbers of aircraft and seats • Passenger load factor: after a
required to generate the forecast decline from 70.1% in 2002 to 68.8%
volume of RPKs at the projected level in 2003 as airlines did not manage to
of service frequencies will result from reduce capacity in line with the drop
the forecast evolution of a variety of in traffic, average load factors will
parameters, which are projected year- then resume their historical trend,
by-year for each of the 9,188 growing progressively to reach 74.3%
individual airport-pairs studied. in 2022.
Airbus forecasters predict that, within All these figures are global averages,
the constraints of available airport and
Higher embracing wide variations between
ATC capacity, these factors will
growth on the groups of airlines based in
continue to evolve along historical
longer different geographical regions, but the
trends:
routes will overall impact is such that in 2022
help • Flight distance: reflecting each installed seat in service will
improve generally higher growth on longer generate 1.87 million RPKs per year,
seat rather than shorter routes, the average compared with just 1.63 million in
productivity distance flown will increase from 2002; an average increase of 0.7% per
1,437 km in 2002 to 1,516 km in year in seat productivity.
2022; Consequently, to accommodate the
• Block speed: in consequence, forecast average annual 5.0% increase
average speed will increase slightly in traffic, the world’s major airlines
from 612 km/h in 2002 to 622 in will have to increase the number of
2022; mainline seats they operate at an
• Aircraft utilisation: also average annual 4.3%.
reflecting the increasing flight The additional seats will be provided
distance, average utilisation will grow partly by an increase in the number of
from 3,450 block hours per aircraft in aircraft operated, and partly by an
2002 to 3,739 in 2022; increase in the number of seats per
aircraft. The number of aircraft
Seat productivity & capacity growth will vary operated depends, of course, on the
between different airline regional groups number of departures offered and the
RPK per seat Capacity (seats in service)
average number of departures per
aircraft. Under intensifying cost
0.7% World traffic (RPK) 5.0% 4. 3%
pressure, airlines will manage to
squeeze a few more flights per year
0.7% Latin America & Caribbean 5.3% 4. 6%
out of each of their aircraft. From
0.7% Asia-Pacific 5.9% 5.1% 1,470 in 2002, this number will
0.4% Africa 4.7% 4.3% increase to 1,533 in 2022; broadly
0.7% N. America 4.0% 3.3% equivalent to one more flight per
0.9% Middle East 5.8% 4.8%
aircraft per week representing an
0. 8% 4. 6%
average rate of increase of 0.2% per
Europe 5.4%
year.
2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
Average annual growth(%)
Global Market Forecast 2003
17Air transport operational evolution
To determine the future number of The GMF assumes liberal frequency
departures, Airbus forecasters use a development
unique approach based on the Total daily flights (all airlines combined)
observed distribution of flight 60
Capacity
share
frequencies between airport-pairs 40 Capacity
growth only
worldwide as a function of flight Capacity/
20
distance. Obviously, the longer the frequency split
flight the fewer the number of 10
Maximum
service levels
departures required to provide an 8
6
“acceptable” level of service. Satisfactory
4
regional
Frequency
service levels
share
Frequency (Europe-Asia
At the same time the observed 2
growth only shown)
behaviour of airlines shows that – 1
again as a function of distance – there 200 400 600 8001000 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Distance (km)
is a “maximum” level of frequency
beyond which any further increase Coupled with the forecast 0.2%
will not in itself generate any more increase in departures per aircraft, it
travel demand. As traffic grows on leads to the prediction that in order to
any particular route, the extent to provide the forecast 4.3% average
which it will be accommodated by an annual increase in seats, the number
increase in aircraft seat capacity as of seats per aircraft will have to
opposed to an increase in frequency increase by 1% per year. This means
will depend upon where it is situated that the average 180 seats per aircraft
between these two thresholds. installed in the world mainline fleet in
2002 will have to grow to 220 seats
This analysis for each airport-pair by 2022. This represents an
leads Airbus to predict that overall, acceleration of the historical trend
assuming that the infrastructure is which has seen average mainline seat
able to cope with the increased capacity grow from 166 seats per
volume of flights, airlines worldwide aircraft in 1982.
during the next twenty years will
increase the number of departures Despite a doubling in departures, aircraft
they offer at an average annual rate of size will have to grow
3.5%. This is significantly higher than Seats
(4.3% p.a.)
the increase achieved during the past
Departures Seats
25 years, and will present a major (3.5% p.a.) per aircraft
Departures
challenge to the world’s airports and per aircraft (1.0% p.a.)
ATC systems. (0.2% p.a.)
No. of
aircraft
(3.3% p.a.)
Average annual growth rates 2002-2022
Global Market Forecast 2003
186. Passenger fleet renewal
Airlines will need to acquire aircraft More and more airlines, including the
not only to accommodate the traffic new breed of “no-frills” carrier,
growth described in Chapter 4 but recognise the value of maintaining a
also to replace their older, noisier and young attractive fleet, not merely to
less efficient aircraft as their age enhance their market image but also
increases, utilisation falls and to improve traveller acceptability and
maintenance costs rise. exploit the economic advantages of
new, more advanced aircraft.
Airlines will continue to replace passenger
aircraft before the end of their economic life Airbus forecasters reflect as far as
possible each individual airline’s
Default replacement age (years) approach to fleet renewal. Where no
30
clear policy is evident, they assume
25 the airline will replace an aircraft
when it reaches a default age which
Latin America & Caribbean
20
reflects the general behaviour in the
region in which the airline is based.
Indian Subcontinent
15
This varies from 20 years for airlines
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
North America
in Asia-Pacific or the People’s
Rest of Africa
10
North Africa
Asia-Pacific
Middle East
P.R.China
Republic of China to 29 years for
5
airlines in Latin America and the
0 Caribbean.
As a result, aircraft replacement is
European fleet replacement waves reflect largely driven by the historical
past delivery cycles patterns of aircraft delivery, and tends
N° of aircraft replaced Seat category : Intermediate twin-aisle
therefore to take place in a series of
300 Small twin-aisle “waves”, with each “wave” – as it
Single-aisle occurs – creating new business
250 opportunities for aircraft
manufacturers and associated
200
suppliers of equipment and services.
150 The GMF year-by-year forecast of the
numbers of aircraft replaced by the
100 airlines of Europe, with clearly-
defined peaks in 2005, 2013 and
50
2021/22, exhibits a classic “wave”
0 pattern and implies that the region’s
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
airlines behave in a more or less
homogeneous manner.
Global Market Forecast 2003
19Passenger fleet renewal
In contrast, the forecast for the North North American fleet replacement activity
American airlines suggests a much will be less cyclical
more heterogeneous behaviour by the N° of aircraft replaced Seat category : Intermediate twin-aisle
airlines. 300 Small twin-aisle
Single-aisle
250
For the world as a whole, the picture
is one of high replacement activity 200
through 2005, followed by a lull
before the next “wave” starts to build 150
from 2010 onwards.
100
50
Occasionally, as in the case of the past
three years, a slowdown in traffic may 0
drive airlines to reduce capacity by 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
definitively retiring aircraft or parking
them with a view to reintroducing
them when growth resumes. In High worldwide fleet replacement activity
practice, only a small fraction of the through 2005
parked aircraft will in fact return to N° of aircraft replaced Seat category : Large
service. 800
Intermediate twin-aisle
700 Small twin-aisle
Single-aisle
Based on their best estimates, Airbus 600
forecasters predict that by 2022 only 500
16% of the end-2002 active fleet will
400
still be in service with their current
operators. 300
200
100
0
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Global Market Forecast 2003
207. World passenger fleet
development
High aircraft size and fleet growth in Asia- At the end of 2002 the airlines in the
Pacific GMF were actively operating some
Avg. a/c size Number of aircraft in service
10,800 passenger jets with 100 seats
or more. With an average of 180 seats
1.0% World capacity 4.3% 3.3%
per aircraft, this provided a little more
than 1.9 million installed seats.
1.2% Latin America & Caribbean 4.6% 3.3%
Through 2022, the number of aircraft
1.3% Asia-Pacific 5.1% 3.8% will increase by 90% to about 20,500
0.6% Africa 4.3% 3.7% while the number of installed seats
0.8% N. America 3.3% 2.4% will reach more than 4.5 million.
0.8% Middle East 4.8% 4.0%
0.7% Europe 4.6% 3. 8% These numbers represent global
2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% average rates of growth of 3.3% per
Average annual growth year in numbers of aircraft and 4.3%
per year in installed seats. The airlines
domiciled in the different regions
show considerable variation around
Airlines in Europe & Asia-Pacific will these global averages. High traffic
operate more seats than in North America growth on routes to, from and within
the region will drive the dynamic
Rest of World North America Asia-Pacific airlines based there to
13% 28%
achieve the most rapid increase in
Rest of World North America
12% 35% both average seat capacity and
installed seats. The most rapid
increase in fleet size will be achieved
Asia-Pacific
25% by airlines in the Middle East. In
contrast the airlines of North America,
Europe
Asia-Pacific
29%
with their high exposure to the mature
Europe
28%
30%
US domestic market, will have the
World total World total slowest growth in installed seats.
at end 2002 at end 2022
1.94 million seats 4.53 million seats
Consequently the North American
airlines will become progressively
less dominant. By 2022 they will be
operating fewer seats than the airlines
of Europe or of the Asia-Pacific
region.
Global Market Forecast 2003
21World passenger fleet development
As an inevitable response to
intensifying cost pressures and The trend is towards widebodies
infrastructure capacity constraints, the Large
composition of the world fleet will Large 6%
Intermediate
shift towards larger aircraft. By 2022 Intermediate twin-aisle >1% twin-aisle
14% 16%
mainline single-aisles will make up
Small twin-aisle
just two-thirds of the fleet, compared 9%
with three-quarters in 2002. At the Small
twin-aisle
same time very large aircraft will 11%
account for 6% of the world passenger
Mainline
fleet; the same percentage as Mainline single-aisle
single-aisle 67%
represented by 747s in the current 77%
World total World total
fleet. at end 2002 at end 2022
10,789 aircraft 20,554 aircraft
However the role played by very large
aircraft is seen more clearly in terms
of capacity. By 2022 these aircraft Very large aircraft will provide a significant
will provide 14% of all seats in share of world airline capacity
service. Large
14%
Large Mainline
Intermediate 1% single-aisle
Some care is needed when reading the twin-aisle
26%
49%
results of the fleet forecast in intermediate
twin-aisle
Appendix C. The GMF does not, for 25%
example, forecast delivery of just 484
A320s through 2022; the figure of 484 Small twin-aisle
12% Mainline
represents the number of A320s single-aisle
already in Airbus’ firm order backlog 61% Small twin-aisle
12%
at end 2002. In addition, the A320 World total World total
will of course compete to supply part at end 2002 at end 2022
1.94 million seats 4.53 million seats
of the forecast “open” demand for
10,467 single-aisle types for which
firm orders had not been placed at end
2002.
Global Market Forecast 2003
228. Demand for passenger aircraft
deliveries
Global summary Five-eighths of the new aircraft
delivered will be for growth and
During 2003-2022, to accommodate
three-eighths for fleet renewal.
traffic growth and renew their fleets,
the world’s major airlines will require Of the 5,867 aircraft replaced, 2,019
delivery of a total of 18,829 passenger will be converted to freighters (see
jets with 100 seats or more. Chapter 9) and 3,848 will be
definitively withdrawn from airline
Of these deliveries, 3,197 represent
service.
demand that will be satisfied by
aircraft replaced by their initial The new aircraft will include
operator and recycled back into the approximately :
fleet of another airline. The remaining
15,632 will be new aircraft; an • 10,000 mainline
average of 782 per year.
single-aisle aircraft; a market
Total demand will be met by 15,632 new where the A320 family has built up a
and 3,197 recycled aircraft leading position;
Fleet size
• 1,800 small twin-
20,554 @ 220
20,000
+ 3.3 % per annum 9,765@ 265 aisle aircraft; a market where the
15,000
Growth A330-200 is setting new standards
10,789 @ 180 15,632 @ 233
new aircraft
which cannot be cost-effectively
10,000
Replaced superseded in the foreseeable future;
5,867 @ 181
• 2,600 intermediate
5,000
Recycled
3,197 @ 186
0
Stay 1,725 @ 168
twin-aisle aircraft; a market
2002 2022 where the larger A330/A340 family
offers an unmatched combination of
capability and efficiency, and;
New passenger aircraft deliveries will
average 782 per year • Nearly 1,200 very large
Number of new aircraft
and economical aircraft; a market
12,000 New passenger which it now appears the highly
aircraft delivered
10,075 2003 - 2022
successful A380 will have to itself
10,000 Totala= 15,632 when it enters service in 2006.
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,612
1,782
2,000 1,163
0
Single-aisle Small twin-aisle Intermediate Large aircraft
twin-aisle
Seat category
Global Market Forecast 2003
23Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries
The European airlines will constitute European airlines will account for most deliveries; Asia-
the largest single regional market in Pacific airlines for the largest number of seats delivered
terms of numbers of aircraft delivered Middle East
Africa Middle East 4%
during the next twenty years, but their Latin America 4% 3%
Africa
Latin America 3%
& Caribbean
greater appetite for very large A380- 7% North America
& Caribbean
6%
North America
26%
type aircraft means that the airlines of 30%
Asia-Pacific will account for the
largest share of seats delivered.
Asia-Pacific Europe Europe
24% 32% Asia-Pacific 30%
31%
15,632 new passenger 3.6 million new seats
aircraft deliveries delivered
2003-2022 2003-2022
Global Market Forecast 2003
24Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries
Most aircraft will fly from airports in the US & By 2022 the world’s active mainline
Europe – with Tokyo’s Narita also in the Top Ten fleet of 20,554 passenger jets will be
operating at 1,511 airports, linking a
total of 9,125 airport-pairs with more
9
than 82,900 daily one-way flights.
2
ORD 8
NRT
(228)
Operations will remain largely
(350) 1 AMS
3
10
JFK
LHR
(368)
(230) focused on flights to, from and within
LAX (220)
(307)
6 5
North America, Europe and Asia-
ATL
(294)
4
CDG
FRA
(295)
Pacific. Flights from just the Top 25
7
DFW
(262)
(303) airports – led by London Heathrow
Rank
(n° of a/c)
and Chicago O’Hare – will absorb the
productive capacity of 28% of the
aircraft, while half the aircraft will be
In
In2022,
2022,14%
14%of
ofthe
theworld
worldmainline
mainlinefleet
fleetwill
willbe
beused
usedon
onflights
flights
from
fromjust
justthe
theTop
TopTen
Tenairports
airports
used on flights from just the Top 75
airports.
Five of the Top Ten airports
Most aircraft will be used on short flights worldwide (measured by aircraft
utilisation) will be in the US, and four
Percent of aircraft operated at range 2022 in Europe, with Tokyo Narita in 9th
25%
place the sole representative from
20% Asia-Pacific.
15%
By 2022, 62% of the active world
10% mainline fleet will be deployed on
flights of no more than 2000 km
5% (roughly equivalent to Frankfurt to
Moscow).
0%
500 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,000 12,500
Range band (500 km steps)
Global Market Forecast 2003
25Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries
Results by size
category :
• Mainline single-aisles 10,075 new mainline single-aisles will be
needed
Through 2022 the world’s major
Fleet size Number of new aircraft
airlines will need more than 12,400 16,000 3,000
13,830 @ 159
single-aisle passenger aircraft to + 2.6 %
14,000 2,798
per annum
accommodate traffic growth and 5,536 2,500
12,000 Growth 2,442
2,363
renew their fleets. Of these, some 2,000
10,000 8,294 10,075 new
2,400 will be provided by aircraft @ 145 aircraft 1,888
8,000 1,500
recycled back into the fleet after being Repl.
replaced by their initial operator. 6,000 4,539 1,000
4,000
Rec. 2,357 500
2,000 584
The advanced and efficient A320 Stay 1,398
0 0
family, ranging from the A318 to the 2002 2020 100 125 150 175 210
Seat category
A321, is well placed to secure a large
share of the remaining demand for
10,100 new aircraft in this category.
Mainline single-aisle operations will be
concentrated on US domestic routes
By 2022 the active fleet of 13,830
9
mainline single-aisles will be 5
DTW
(141)
operating at 1,506 airports, linking 10
MSP
(162)
1
8,216 airport-pairs with some 63,000 DEN
(139) ORD
(267)
daily one-way flights. Operations will
7
be largely focused on domestic US 8 EWR
PHX (151)
routes; all the Top Ten airports served (147)
2
by these aircraft (measured in terms of DFW
(225)
3
ATL
(215)
aircraft utilisation) will be in the US. 6
LAX
Rank
4 (n° of a/c)
Indeed, the most highly-ranked non- (154)
IAH
(174)
US airport, Frankfurt, is in only 11th
place. In
In2022,
2022,13%
13%of
ofthe
theworld
worldmainline
mainlinesingle-aisle
single-aislefleet
fleetwill
willbe
beused
usedon
on
flights
flightsfrom
fromjust
justthe
theTop
TopTen
Tenairports
airports
Global Market Forecast 2003
26Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries
Mainline single-aisles will be largely flown Similarly, the Top Ten routes will all
on short routes … be within the US. In this case, the first
non-US route (Bangkok- Koh Samui)
Percent of aircraft operated at range 2022 is ranked just 33rd.
25%
20% Compared with the world fleet as a
whole, the use of single-aisles will be
15%
relatively dispersed. Flights from the
10% Top 25 airports, led by Chicago
O’Hare and Dallas/Fort Worth, will
5% absorb the productive capacity of just
26% of the aircraft, and 50% of the
0%
500 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,500
single-aisle fleet will be used on
Range band (500 km steps) flights from the Top 87 airports.
The single-aisle aircraft will be flown
… with 41% flown by airlines in North overwhelmingly on short flights; by
America 2022 39% of the aircraft will be used
Middle East Africa Middle East
on flights of no more than 1,000 km
5% 4%
Africa
North America Latin America
2% equivalent to Paris to Madrid.
10% & Caribbean North America
16%
8% 40%
By 2022, 22 North American airlines
Latin America
& Caribbean Asia-Pacific
will each be operating an average of
12% 15%
254 mainline single-aisles, compared
Europe
with 82 European airlines operating
37%
Asia-Pacific an average of 53 aircraft each.
20% Europe
31%
222 airlines 13,830 aircraft
GMF mainline single-aisle fleet in 2022
Global Market Forecast 2003
27Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries
• Small twin-aisles 1,782 new small twin-aisles aircraft will be
needed
Demand will develop for a total of
Fleet size
2,100 aircraft in this category. With 2,500
2,227 @ 249
almost 300 to be replaced by recycled
aircraft, this will leave a need for 2,000
1,289
some 1,800 new aircraft to be + 4.4 %
delivered during 2003-2022. 1,500 per annum
Growth 1,782 new
aircraft
938 @ 246
1,000
By 2022 the active fleet of 2,227 Repl.
493
small twin-aisle aircraft will be 500
operating at 609 airports, linking a Rec. 297
total of 2,623 airport-pairs with some 0
Stay
148
2002 2022
8,200 daily one-way flights.
Operations will be largely focus on
intra-European and US domestic
flights. The Top Ten airports include Operations of small twin-aisle aircraft will
six in Europe and three in the US, mainly be in the US & Europe
while the Top Ten routes include
three in the US and four in Europe. 9
2
Amongst Asian airports, only Beijing LHR
(45)
AMS
(31)
features among the Top Ten. 3
JFK
6 5
(44) FRA
LAX 1
(38) CDG (40)
(55)
4
ATL
8
(44)
FCO
7 (34)
10
MAD
PEK (37)
(28) Rank
(n° of a/c)
In
In2022,
2022,18%
18%of
ofthe
thesmall
smalltwin-aisle
twin-aislefleet
fleetwill
willbe
beused
usedon
onflights
flights
from
fromjust
justthe
theTop
TopTen
Tenairports
airports
Global Market Forecast 2003
28Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries
Small twin-aisle operations will include As a measure of concentration, flights
both short-range & long-range routes … from the Top 25 airports will use the
productive capacity of 32% of the
Percent of aircraft operated at range 2022 fleet, and 50% of the fleet will be
18%
used on flights from the Top 56
16%
airports, led by Paris Charles de
14%
12%
Gaulle and London Heathrow.
10%
8% The world fleet of small twin-aisles
6% will be used on a broad spectrum of
4%
routes, but will mainly fly on local
2%
and domestic routes largely served
0%
500 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,000 12,500
today by single-aisles. The higher
Range band (500 km steps) proportion of these routes will result
in a sustained reduction in average
flight distance from its current 2,561
km to 1,974 km in 2022. By 2022
… with European airlines the main users 70% of the aircraft will be used on
flights of no more than 4,000 km;
Africa Middle East
Middle East
6% North America 4% 5% equivalent to Los Angeles to New
Africa Latin America
12%
10%
& Caribbean North America York.
6% 22%
Asia-
Latin
Pacific The airlines of Europe will constitute
25%
America
& Caribbean
the largest single regional market for
12% these aircraft, with 50 airlines
Europe
34% operating an average of 17 aircraft
Asia-Pacific
26% Europe each. Fifteen North American
38%
operators, however, will have a larger
146 airlines 2,227 aircraft
average fleet of 32 aircraft each.
GMF small twin-aisle fleet in 2022
Global Market Forecast 2003
29Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries
• Intermediate twin- 2,612 new intermediate twin-aisles will be
needed
aisles
Fleet size Number of new aircraft
The world’s major airlines will need a 3,500 3,326 @ 335 1,400
total of more than 3,100 aircraft in
3,000 1,200
this category; a market segment + 4.0 % 1,799
1,219
per annum
covered by the A330-300 and the 2,500 1,000
A340 family. 2,600 of these aircraft 2,000 1,527
Growth
2,612 new
800
@ 326 744
will be new, leaving 500 to be 1,500
aircraft
600 649
satisfied by recycled aircraft. Almost 1,000 Repl. 400
half of the new aircraft will be 300- 813
500 Rec. 200
seaters, with the remainder split Stay
525
189
equally between 350-seaters (28%) 0 0
2002 2022 300 350 400
and 400-seaters (25%). Seat category
By 2022 the active fleet of 3,326
twin-aisles will be operating at 506
airports, linking a total of 2,059 Intermediate twin-aisle operations will be
airport-pairs with some 9,400 daily concentrated largely on Asia-Pacific & Europe
one-way flights. Operations will be 2
7
spread globally, with only a small LAX 9
LHR
(96)
3
NRT
(67) AMS
proportion of flights on US domestic (62)
4
(89)
routes. Of the Top Ten airports 1
CDG
FRA
(84)
(97)
served, five will be in the Asia-Pacific 5
PEK
(73)
region and four in Europe, leaving
just Los Angeles in the US. The Top 8
BKK 10
(66) ICN
Ten routes also show a global spread. 6
(55)
Rank SIN
(n° of a/c) (71)
In
In2022,
2022,23%
23%of
ofthe
theintermediate
intermediatetwin-aisle
twin-aislefleet
fleetwill
willbe
beused
usedon
on
flights
flightsfrom
fromjust
justthe
theTop
TopTen
Tenairports
airports
Global Market Forecast 2003
30Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries
A significant proportion of intermediate twin- Compared with the world fleet as a
aisle flights will demand 4-engine autonomy whole, operation of intermediate twin-
aisles will be relatively concentrated,
Percent of aircraft operated at range 2022 with flights from the Top 25 airports –
14%
led by Paris Charles de Gaulle and
12%
London Heathrow – absorbing the
10% productive capacity of 44% of the
8% aircraft. Half the aircraft will be used
6%
on flights from the Top 32 airports.
4%
2%
The deployment of the intermediate
twin-aisle fleet shows a similar
0%
500 2,000 3,500 5,000 6,500 8,000 9,500 11,000 12,500
pattern to that of the smaller twin-
Range band (500 km steps) aisle aircraft, but with a substantially
greater use on long-range routes. Half
the fleet will be used on flights of no
more than 4,000 km (roughly
Asia-Pacific will be the largest market equivalent to San Francisco to
Africa Middle East
Montreal) , but one-third will be used
Middle East
Africa
7% North America
9% Latin America
4% 6% on flights longer than 7,500 km
North America
10% & Caribbean
20%
(roughly equivalent to New York to
5%
Moscow).
Latin America
& Caribbean
11%
The 35 Asia-Pacific operators will
Europe
constitute the largest single regional
Asia-Pacific
35% Europe market, with an average of 38 aircraft
Asia-Pacific 25%
28%
40% each.
124 airlines 3,326 aircraft
GMF intermediate twin-aisle fleet in 2022
Global Market Forecast 2003
31Demand for passenger aircraft deliveries
• Large aircraft 1,163 very large passenger aircraft will be
By 2022, in order to sustain profitable needed
Fleet size Number of new aircraft
operations in the face of maturing 1,171 @ 558
600
markets, continuing severe price 1,100
competition, and increasingly 500 537
900
stringent infrastructure and 1,141
400
environmental constraints, major 700 (+ 20.1 %
per annum)
1,163 new
airlines will need a total of almost 500
aircraft 300
292
1,200 very large and economical Growth
200
aircraft like the A380. Just 18 will be 300
30
203
recycled back into the fleet after being 100
@ 551
22
100
Repl. 101
replaced by their initial operators (ten 18
0
30
-100 2002 2022 -10
of these being aircraft delivered 450 500 600 800 1,000
Seat category
during the 20-year forecast period).
Over 70% of the new large aircraft Eight of the Top Ten large aircraft airports
delivered will be in the 500- and 600- will be in Asia-Pacific
seater categories. The remaining 30%
2
of demand will be satisfied by some 1
LHR NRT
6
LAX
(106) (100) (48)
200 450-seaters leaving only 130
aircraft in the 800- and 1000-seater 7 8
PEK HND
categories. The average capacity of all (40) (37) 9
ICN
deliveries will be 559 seats, very close 5 (37)
BKK 3
to the 555 3-class seating (48) HKG
(88) 10
configuration of the A380. 4
SIN
SYD
(35)
Rank (66)
(n° of a/c)
By 2022, these large aircraft will be
In
In2022
2022more
morethan
thanhalf
halfof
ofthe
theworld’s
world’sfleet
fleetof
of1,171
1,171very
verylarge
large
serving 209 airports, linking 489 aircraft
aircraftwill
willbe
beused
usedon
onflights
flightsfrom
fromjust
justthe
thetop
topten
tenairports
airports
airport-pairs with some 3,400 daily
departures.
Unsurprisingly, operation of very
Nine of the Top Ten large aircraft routes
will serve Asia
large aircraft will be highly
concentrated, with flights from just 15 (628)
22 (654) CTS 16 (530) LAX
the Top 25 airports using the capacity JFK
LHR
of 70% of the fleet. 16 (816) NRT 16 (526)
HND HNL
Flights from London Heathrow will 16 (771)
use the productive capacity of more of FUK
18 (608)
23 (594)
these aircraft than flights from any 16 (716)
other airport, but – apart from Los
Angeles in 6th place – all the other SIN HKG TPE
Top Ten airports are in Asia-Pacific. Number of aircraft (avg. seats)
22 (754)
And of the Top Ten routes, only
London Heathrow-New York JFK In
In2022,
2022,the
theTop
TopTen
Tenairport
airportpairs
pairsalone
alonewill
willuse
use180
180out
outof
of1,171
1,171
very
verylarge
largeaircraft
aircraft
does not serve this dynamic region.
Global Market Forecast 2003
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