THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY - RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION, MERCHANT RISK AND THE GROWTH OF CORPORATE PPAS - Acuris

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THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY - RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION, MERCHANT RISK AND THE GROWTH OF CORPORATE PPAS - Acuris
THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY

 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION, MERCHANT RISK
     AND THE GROWTH OF CORPORATE PPAS
THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY - RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION, MERCHANT RISK AND THE GROWTH OF CORPORATE PPAS - Acuris
2      WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                             THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                         Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                      01

CO N T ENT S                                                   FOREWORD

Foreword                                                  01

Executive summary                                         02

01: Renewables – the best laid plans                      04

02: The impact of subsidies                               12

03: Opportunities and risks in subsidy-free investments   18

04: Corporate power purchase agreements                   24

05: Energy storage infrastructure                         30

Conclusion                                                34

                                                               The rise of renewable energy has been a success story over
                                                               the past decade and, despite a recent fall in investment in
                                                               European renewables due to subsidy reductions and auction
                                                               access, all signs point towards further growth.
                                                               New investment in renewable energy is, however, fast approaching a key milestone:
                                                               reliance on subsidy-free power generation. As this milestone is reached, industry
                                                               incumbents will have no option but to adapt to what a subsidy-free market means
                                                               for the industry and their business models. This new era will present challenges and
                                                               opportunities in equal measure. Competitive advantage is likely to be achieved
                                                               by those that are best able to understand and manage merchant risk, engage
                                                               with and develop corporate power purchase agreements (CPPAs), and help tackle
                                                               intermittency through energy storage solutions.
                                                               Europe will lead the way in this journey, but the Asian market will follow and             Malte Jordan
                                                               face the same challenges. In the meantime, fragmented regulation is the primary            Co-head Global
                                                               hurdle for the growth of renewable energy in Asia.                                         Energy Sector
                                                                                                                                                          t: +49 40 800 084 461
                                                               WFW has been in the renewable energy sector since its inception and, through               mjordan@wfw.com
                                                               our sector-focused approach, we have remained at the forefront of the industry
                                                               and are well placed to observe these trends.                                               Henry Stewart
                                                               This report, based on interviews with 150 senior level investors, financiers, developers   Co-head Global
                                                               and utilities in Europe, South East Asia and the Middle East, provides insight at this     Energy Sector
                                                               pivotal moment for the renewable energy sector and identifies regional and global          t: +44 20 7814 8404
                                                               trends, as well as key issues that will shape the future of renewable energy.              hstewart@wfw.com
THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY - RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION, MERCHANT RISK AND THE GROWTH OF CORPORATE PPAS - Acuris
02          WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                                  THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                                   Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                               03

EXE C UT IV E S UMM ARY                                                                     The race to invest
                                                                                            in renewables
                                                                                            is accelerating                                          Interest in CPPAs is on the rise

                                                                                                                                                     63%
                                                                                            83%                                                                                                            53%
Investment in renewable energy is rising
Government targets for a more sustainable energy mix have resulted in more                                                                           of respondents in Europe and
power producers decarbonising their portfolios. This, combined with sector-                 of all respondents say                                   South East Asia agree that the                        of respondents in Europe
wide technological improvements, has resulted in an increase in investment in               they have directly                                       low uptake in CPPAs in some                           believe an increase in
renewable energy. Two-thirds of developers in our survey expect to be involved              invested in, developed                                   regions is due to a lack of                           availability of alternative
                                                                                            or financed an                                           generators offering CPPAs that                        PPA structures, e.g consortia
in seven or more projects in the next two years, up from one-third who were
                                                                                            onshore wind                                             are suitable for prospective                          PPAs and joint tenancy,
involved in the same number of projects in the previous two years. In terms of
                                                                                            project in the past                                      offtakers, e.g. SMEs with lower                       would be most likely to drive
direct investment, offshore wind, onshore wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) lead                                                                      power demands
the way with 86%, 83% and 86%, respectively, of respondents directly investing in,          two years                                                                                                      an uptake of CPPAs among
                                                                                                                                                                                                           smaller offtakers
developing or financing projects over the past two years.
Regional differences exist in the need for subsidy support
The European market is sufficiently mature that subsidies are no longer required
to maintain growth, while these are still needed in Asia. In our survey, 70% of
respondents believe that subsidy reductions would have no impact, or in fact have                                                                                                      51%
                                                                                                                                                                                       of respondents overall
a positive impact on M&A activity in Western Europe, while 82% think it would
have no impact on or increase the availability of project finance. This contrasts                                                                                                      believe that a net
with 63% of respondents who believe that subsidy reductions in Asia would have                                                                                                         reduction in carbon
a negative impact on M&A activity, and 61% who say it would decrease the                                                                                                               emissions to meet
                                                                                                                                                                                       company goals is one of
availability of project finance in the region.
                                                                                                                                                                                       the most important
In a European market without subsidies, being able to deal with the                                                                                                                    benefits for offtakers in
challenges of merchant risk will become increasingly important                                                                                                                         entering a CPPA

                                                                                            86%
Opinions vary among our respondents as to whether the market is adapting
quickly enough to accept merchant risk, but what is clear is that, while the
availability of project finance will remain strong, changes will be seen in the             of all respondents
documentation to manage merchant risk, with cash sweeps and tenor reduction                 say they have directly      The impact of subsidies for renewables projects
becoming more common features.                                                              invested in, developed or
                                                                                            financed an offshore
Restrictive and unsupportive regulation is the primary hurdle for the Asian
market to overcome in order to achieve subsidy-free renewable projects
Just under three-quarters (74%) of South East Asia-based respondents cite this as
                                                                                            wind project in the past
                                                                                            two years, with an equal
                                                                                                                        22%
                                                                                                                        of respondents say that
                                                                                                                                                                                                           52%
                                                                                                                                                                                                           of respondents say a
                                                                                            proportion saying the
the main obstacle holding back subsidy-free renewable projects in the region for                                        lower subsidies could have                                                         reduction in subsidies
                                                                                            same about solar PV
offshore wind, in contrast to only 43% in Europe.                                                                       a positive effect on the                                                           would have no impact on
                                                                                                                        availability of renewables                                                         M&A opportunities in
Interest in CPPAs is booming, especially as subsidy support is                                                          project financing in                                                               renewables in Western
being withdrawn                                                                                                         Western Europe (rising                                                             Europe in the next two
The key to unlocking this potential is through the aggregation of corporate demand.                                     to 30% in the Nordics)                                                             years – and 18% say it may
Nearly two-thirds of respondents in Europe and South East Asia consider the lack of                                                                                                                        even have a positive effect
generators offering CPPAs that are suitable for SME offtakers, who have a relatively
lower power demand, as the main reason for lower uptake. More than half of
respondents cite alternative CPPA arrangements, including consortia and joint                                           61%
                                                                                                                                                                                                           63%
tenancy, as being one of the single most important factors in unleashing CPPA growth.                                   of respondents say that

                                                                                            69%
                                                                                                                        lower subsidies would
With the rise in intermittent energy, energy storage will play an
                                                                                                                        have a negative impact                                                             of respondents say a
important role in maintaining a resilient energy system                                                                 on the availability of
                                                                                            of developers expect to                                                                                        reduction in subsidies in Asia
Co-location of batteries with renewable energy projects and increased corporate                                         project finance in the
                                                                                            be involved in seven or                                                                                        would have a negative
self-consumption will likely lead the way. Nearly half of respondents based in Europe                                   renewables sector in Asia                                                          impact on M&A opportunities
                                                                                            more renewables projects
are already actively investing in, developing or financing energy storage infrastructure,   in the next two years       in the next two years                                                              in renewables
with nearly all respondents viewing this as a strategy with solid potential for managing
CPPA balancing risks. The rise of batteries may well be linked to the rise in CPPAs.
THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY - RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION, MERCHANT RISK AND THE GROWTH OF CORPORATE PPAS - Acuris
04          WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                             THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                              Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                                                 05

CH A P T E R ONE

R EN E WABLE S – T HE B EST L AI D PL ANS

The race to invest in renewables is accelerating and intentions are                                                  “Renewable energy development still needs                     Developers are natural pathfinders because they
positive, with developers, financiers, investors and power producers                                                 significant capital and other support, and it has             understand construction risk and know how to
                                                                                                                     yet to compete with some other sources of energy              deliver complex projects from scratch. Our survey
planning to increase the number of renewable energy projects on                                                      when it comes to cost.”                                       confirms that they will continue to set the pace:
their books. How are they taking advantage of the opportunities                                                                                                                    almost a third of developers say they have taken on
                                                                                                                     The changing pace of development
while overcoming obstacles?                                                                                          These differences in the market are having a clear
                                                                                                                                                                                   seven or more renewables projects over the past two
                                                                                                                                                                                   years, and two-thirds expect to be involved in seven
                                                                                                                     impact on the speed and scale of renewables                   projects or more in the next two years – far ahead of
                                                                                                                     development and investment.                                   any other group of respondents.

The renewables landscape was once a cautious            As a result: power producers are also looking for
and relatively slow-moving space, but it is now         ways to decarbonise their portfolios while they
going through a determined transformation. What         build their business; investors are looking for new          FIGURE 1: How many renewable energy generation projects have you directly invested in, developed
were once considered untested, unpredictable and        opportunities as returns from fossil fuel sources begin      or financed over the past two years? And how many do you anticipate over the next two years?
unreliable have become proven technologies, from        to decline; and businesses of all sizes are looking for
offshore and onshore wind to solar PV power. And        safe ways to shift to reliable green energy sources,
governments around the world are taking steps –         with many choosing CPPAs as the way forward.                                          Last two years                                                                Next two years
some faster than others – to build a more sustainable                                                                                                                              0%   0%
                                                        The result is an increasingly attractive and active
energy mix, combat the growing impact of climate                                                                                                                                   0% 1 0%
                                                        renewables investment market – although the                                                                       5%            0%
change, cut energy costs and free themselves from
                                                        transition is not without its challenges.                                                                        6%             0%
their dependency on fossil fuels.
                                                        While European investors enjoy a relatively                                                                                0%        0%
For example, in June 2019, the UK’s National Grid                                                                                                        23%                                      3%
                                                        homogeneous marketplace and more renewables-                                                                                    2
announced that “Britain is set to achieve a historic                                                                                                             15%                               5%
                                                        friendly regulations, the Asian market is more                                                   23%                                            9%
electricity generation milestone this year, with more
                                                        fragmented, with inconsistent regulatory environments
electricity generated from zero carbon sources than                                                                                                               12%                             3%
                                                        and economic uncertainty causing some hesitation                                           30%                                                   10%
fossil fuels”.1                                                                                                                                                                         3
                                                        among potential investors.                                                           40%                                                       7%
That same month, France enshrined in law its                                                                                                       31%                                                               20%
                                                        Participants in our industry survey understand these
intention to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.2                                                                                                   31%                                            3%
                                                        regional differences better than anyone. As the                                                  23%                                                          22%
In terms of German domestic power consumption,                                                                                                                                          4
                                                        director of corporate strategy and development at an                                                             7%                             10%
the share of renewable sources had already reached                                                                                                                      8%                         5%
                                                        independent power producer in Germany points out,
37.8% by 2018 and the country aims to cut up
                                                        “The way renewable energy is looked at in Europe is                                                20%                                           11%
to 95% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,
                                                        completely different to the way it is looked at in Asia or                                                        5%            5                             22%
compared to its 1990 levels.3                                                                                                                            23%                                                                 30%
                                                        the Middle East. Renewable energy is not just another                                            23%                                                                    34%
Taiwan has announced plans to phase out nuclear         source of energy in Europe – it is seen as the answer to
power after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster      climate change dangers and cutting greenhouse gases                                                               6%                                  14%
                                                                                                                                                                         7%             6                      15%
and is taking aggressive steps to achieve 5.5GW         at the consumer level. People are willing to support a                                                                     0%                        13%
of installed offshore wind capacity by 2025.4           shift to renewable energy sources.”                                                                                   3%                        9%

Vietnam has set targets for hydro, wind and solar       “In Asia and the Middle East, when it comes to                                             31%                                                                                                   69%
                                                                                                                                                                   12%                                                      28%
power generation by 2020, 2025 and 2030,                renewables, cost is still the deciding factor rather                                                        10%
                                                                                                                                                                                        7+
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  35%
respectively, aiming to increase the proportion         than climate change concerns and environmental                                                                    6%                                          23%
of renewable energy in their power generation           issues,” adds the director of investment of a specialist
structure despite their fast-growing power demand.5     renewables/energy investment fund in Singapore.
                                                                                                                                Developers         Financiers           Independent power producers/generators and utilities                 Investors
THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY - RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION, MERCHANT RISK AND THE GROWTH OF CORPORATE PPAS - Acuris
06          WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                            THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                             Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                             07

                                                                                                                   Offshore and onshore wind and                            FIGURE 2: Which of the following renewables subsectors
                                                                                                                   solar PV projects dominate investments                   have you directly invested in, developed or financed over
                                                                                                                   “The shift in focus to renewable power sources           the past two years? (Select all sectors that apply)
                                                                                                                   is not surprising, given the steady evolution of the
                                                                                                                   technology at its heart,” says Henry Stewart, co-head
                                                                                                                   of the global energy sector at Watson Farley &
                                                                                                                   Williams. “The days when people asked what would
                                                                                                                   happen if the wind didn’t blow or clouds blocked the
                                                                                                                   sun are gone. And renewables technologies have
                                                                                                                   become increasingly reliable.”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Wave
                                                                                                                   Offshore wind is a prime example: “It has moved
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3%
                                                                                                                   from a pioneer’s market to mainstream technology
                                                                                                                   and this is likely to have significant consequences,”
                                                                                                                   says Stewart. “First, it will produce rapid growth
                                                                                                                   and larger projects. Second, more offshore wind
                                                                                                                   developers are likely to enter the market. Third, it
                                                                                                                   will attract more lenders and increased competition
                                                                                                                   to provide debt, which means offshore pricing may                         Tidal
                                                                                                                   continue to go down.”                                                     11%

                                                                                                                   Offshore wind is not the only success story. Onshore
                                                                                                                   wind and solar PV have both become bedrock
                                                                                                                   investments, an idea that Stewart confirms and our
                                                                                                                   survey findings support: offshore wind, onshore wind,                                           Geothermal
                                                                                                                   as well as solar PV had each been invested in by over                                              13%
                                                                                                                   80% of respondents over the past two years.
                                                                                                                   There are still risks of course, many of them driven
                                                                                                                   by subsidies or a lack thereof. In Europe, there has
                                                                                                                                                                                           Biomass
                                                                                                                   been limited new solar PV development during                              39%
                                                                                                                   the transition from a subsidy-driven market to an
                                                                                                                   increasingly subsidy-free/grid parity market. This may
                                                                                                                   be why only 57% of developers in our survey say they

71%
                                                                                                                   have invested in solar PV over the past two years.
                                                                                                                   Hydroelectric power has also seen less activity,                                               Hydroelectric
                                                                                                                   with around half of respondents saying they have                                                   52%
of investors expect to back four or                                                                                backed hydro schemes in the past two years. This
                                                                                                                   is due in part to a lack of available projects – there
more renewables projects over the                                                                                  are few remaining untapped sources for potential
                                                                                                                   hydropower projects to be developed.
next two years
                                                                                                                   Geothermal, tidal and wave were the least popular                     Onshore wind
                                                                                                                   with respondents over the past two years. Tidal and                       83%
                                                                                                                   wave in particular face significant construction and
                                                                                                                   technology risks. Tidal has the added challenge
                                                                                                                   of relying heavily on political sponsorship.
And where developers lead, others follow as the            Investors are similarly enthusiastic: 21% acknowledge   Respondents see biomass as more promising, but
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Solar PV
pipeline grows. Respondents throughout the sector          that half or more of their portfolio already includes   air quality concerns mean it remains controversial                                                 86%
say they expect to increase their engagement in            direct investment in renewable energy generation        in some territories.
renewables over the coming two years, with the vast        projects and 71% expect to back four or more projects
majority of independent power producers/generators,        over the next two years.
utilities and financiers saying they expect to back four
                                                           It’s clear that the renewable energy market will
or more projects in that time.
                                                           continue to grow significantly and quickly. The only
                                                           questions are which technologies will take the lead                                                                           Offshore wind
                                                                                                                                                                                              86%
                                                           where, when and – perhaps most significantly, given
                                                           the obstacles many face – how.
THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY - RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION, MERCHANT RISK AND THE GROWTH OF CORPORATE PPAS - Acuris
08          WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                                  THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                                   Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                                             09

                                                           33%
Regional focus: Europe leads                                                                                             FIGURE 3: In which countries have you directly invested in, developed or financed a renewable
in renewables investments                                                                                                generation project? And in which country have you most recently done so? (Top results shown)
Europe has dominated renewable energy
development and investment for more than
a decade. What is behind this steady growth?
                                                           of respondents overall have                                      Germany                                                                                                                 33%

“Support from the authorities, in terms of permitting,     already directly invested in,                                                                                    12%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   23%
dealing with environmental constraints and eliminating
administrative and technical barriers, have all been
                                                           developed or financed a                                                UK
                                                                                                                                                                   9%

important drivers,” explains David Diez, regulatory        renewable generation                                              Sweden
                                                                                                                                                       5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   23%
and public law partner in the global energy sector at
Watson Farley & Williams in Madrid. “For example,          project in Germany                                                 France                                                                            22%
                                                                                                                                                                   9%
Spain has solid wind and solar resources, and land
available at a reasonable price. But the main driver                                                                         Norway                                                      15%
has been the government’s energy transition strategy.                                                                                                  5%
Around 50GW of conventional power is expected              “Looking forward, the preference is to establish                                                                       13%
                                                                                                                               Spain
to shut down in the next 15 years and this capacity        long-term grid-parity projects instead of participating                                3%
must be replaced by renewables. Replacing 50GW             in auctions, in order to avoid future dependency on                                                                    13%
                                                           regulatory regimes and dealing with governmental              Switzerland
of conventional power capacity will require around                                                                                                3%
100-120GW of renewables.”                                  bodies,” says Tranchino.
                                                                                                                         Netherlands                                     11%
                                                           This combination of regulatory policy, greater liquidity                                         7%
This shift in focus can have a clear knock-on effect
in renewables investment. Historically, Diez points        among banks, investors and financial institutions, as                                                         11%
                                                                                                                            Denmark
out that drastic changes in Spain affected asset           well as lower technology costs, has created a positive                                 3%
remuneration and tariffs were cut retroactively.           atmosphere for renewables in Europe.                                                                          11%
                                                                                                                            Thailand
But the government’s renewed commitment to                                                                                                   2%
                                                           Regional focus: Asia looms on the horizon
renewables (at a national, regional and local level)
                                                           Our survey shows that Germany has dominated
is attracting developers back to the market.
                                                           renewables investment up to now, followed by
                                                                                                                                             All countries invested/developed/financed            Most recent country invested/developed/financed
The benefit of a stable regulatory regime is most          the UK, Sweden, France, Norway, Spain and a handful
evident in the UK and German markets. Malte                of other European markets. But it also suggests that
Jordan, co-head of Watson Farley & Williams’ global        investors see future opportunities in Asia. Activity in the
energy sector, based in Hamburg, notes that “the           region reflects a growing interest in renewables and
well managed support shown through subsidies has           many hope to get in on the ground floor.
enabled the growth of infant technologies to a stage                                                                     banks increasingly unwilling to finance coal projects,         This balance between the enormous potential
                                                           “The renewables market in Asia is being driven in
where the markets are now, broadly speaking, close                                                                       combined with the demand for power in the country              of the Chinese market and the difficulty for foreign
                                                           part by structural energy shortages rather than purely
to achieving grid parity”.                                                                                               forecast to grow at 10% annually, the development              investors is well understood by Stergoulis, who notes:
                                                           environmental factors,” says Evan Stergoulis, partner in
                                                                                                                         of a renewables market in Vietnam is essential.                “China is a big market, but it’s more of a Chinese-
“Across Europe, many new projects are now being            the global energy sector at Watson Farley & Williams.
                                                                                                                                                                                        to-Chinese market and it’s difficult to access for
developed under CPPA schemes,” adds Diez.                                                                                Not all change is structural, however, and some shifts
                                                           “For example, Taiwan is reluctant to rely on nuclear                                                                         foreign investment.”
“We are seeing more and more companies with                                                                              to renewables can be attributed to environmental
                                                           power in the wake of Fukushima and there’s limited
100 per cent renewable energy consumption targets                                                                        factors. As Christopher Osborne, a corporate partner           This insight is well supported by the survey results.
                                                           scope for onshore wind because the country is
that are considering CPPAs rather than using electricity                                                                 in Watson Farley & Williams’ global energy sector              While half of respondents in our survey believe the
                                                           mountainous. Offshore wind has become a natural
suppliers with guarantees of origin, which are not                                                                       in Bangkok, highlights, the expansion of renewable             best offshore wind investment opportunities will be
                                                           choice, notwithstanding typhoon and earthquake risk.
considered reliable enough from an additionality                                                                         energy in Thailand reflects aspirations for cleaner            offered by Germany, China comes a close second and
                                                           The structural need for energy, the declining cost of
perspective. These projects do not depend on                                                                             energy sources to meet anticipated increases in                it leads the pack in onshore wind with more than half
                                                           offshore wind and the ability to build up its own local
regulatory remuneration, so the impact of potential                                                                      demand. This is evident in the recent increase of              seeing it as providing the most attractive investment
                                                           supply chain have really kicked off the programme.”
regulatory changes on the income of projects like                                                                        non-hydro renewable targets from 20% to 30% by                 opportunities – well ahead of Germany. And with
these is much less than a few years ago.”                  Japan is following suit, albeit a bit more slowly,            20367, as well as protests against coal projects that          solar PV, China’s lead is even more decisive: two-thirds
                                                           says Stergoulis: “The Japanese government                     prevented the expansion of two coal fired power                of respondents rank it best for investment opportunities
This assessment is notably seen in Italy, where the
                                                           acknowledges that reliance on fossil fuels and                plants that would have generated 2,800MW.8                     versus just over a third selecting the US and Germany.
government has recently launched a 5.5GW series
                                                           nuclear is not sustainable. This is partly driven by
of tenders for renewable energy subsidies.6 Eugenio                                                                      Recent developments – including EDF’s landmark                 These results strongly indicate the market shares
                                                           green concerns, but it’s more to do with a structural
Tranchino, partner in Watson Farley & Williams’                                                                          agreement with state-owned China Energy                        our view that while opportunities to invest in China
                                                           change in the energy mix.”
global energy sector, based in Milan, explains                                                                           Investment Corporation to jointly develop an offshore          are large, and respondents view China as being
that “despite this new regime, which shows strong          Similarly, Linh Doan, partner in Watson Farley                wind power project9 – also suggest that China’s                one of the most attractive investment opportunities,
government commitment, the PPA market is now               & Williams’ global energy sector in Vietnam                   traditionally closed renewables market is opening up           fundamentally it is still a challenging market to break
where most solar and wind investors and developers         explains that, to date, Vietnam has been reliant on           and investors are taking note, although opportunities          into for foreign investors and, in the short term,
are focussing their efforts”.                              conventional and hydropower, but with international           remain limited.                                                opportunities in Asia may lie elsewhere.
10        WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                         THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                        Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs   11

FIGURE 4: Which countries do you think will
provide the best opportunities for investment
in offshore and onshore wind, and solar PV?                                   U.K.
(Select top three countries; top results shown)                                      13% 16% 19%

                                                                                     Norway
                                                                                                       15% 17% 18%

                                                                                            Sweden
                                                                                                         15%   24%   31%

                                                                                                                13% 15% 15%
                                                                                                  Denmark

                                                                                     Germany

                                                                             France Switzerland
                                                                                                               36%   39%      50%
                                                                                      13%
                                                                                                                                          China
                                                  U.S.A.
                                                           24%   33%   39%
                                                                                                                               India

                                                                                                                              12%

                                                                                                                              13%
                                                                                                                                       47%
                                                                                                                              36%
                                                                                  10%

                                                                                  12%                                                  53%

                                                                                             South
                                                                                             Africa
  Legend                                                                                                                                62%

          Offshore wind

                                                                                                  7%
          Onshore wind
                                                                                                                                                       Australia
                                                                                                                                         13% 12% 12%
          Solar PV
12          WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                                 THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                                  Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                                     13

CH A P T E R T WO                                                                                                       FIGURE 5: How do you think a reduction in subsidies or other support might impact
                                                                                                                        M&A opportunities in the renewables sector in the next two years in the following regions?

T H E I MPAC T O F SU B SI DI ES                                                                                           The Nordics          16%                                       64%                                          20%

                                                                                                                        Western Europe                30%                                           52%                                    18%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1%

                                                                                                                            Middle East                                     63%                                               36%
As renewable energy becomes the norm, backed by subsidies and other
forms of support, governments are now assessing whether such subsidies
are still required. But what does a shift to “subsidy-free” mean for M&A                                                           Asia                                     63%                                               37%

and project financing in the sector?

                                                                                                                                                               Negative impact      No impact        Positive impact

                                                                                                                                                                                  22%
Governments across Europe are looking to wind               “The renewable energy sector in Europe has already          in both regions in the short term. A reduction
down subsidies for renewables projects. The sector’s        adjusted itself to changing subsidies and is no longer      in subsidies and support will naturally slow down
maturity and lower costs are making the political           dependent on them for development,” says the                growth in renewable energy, making it difficult
case for subsidies harder to justify. In short, the         managing director of a project financier based in           to sustain M&A activity.
sector is under pressure to go it alone.                    Finland. “M&A activity in renewable energy is strong                                                                  of respondents believe that a
                                                                                                                        “In Asia, cost is the primary driver and, in such
Market participants are somewhat divided on
                                                            and is a very attractive option for investors, especially
                                                            institutional investors. Renewable energy is turning out
                                                                                                                        a young market, any decrease in subsidies will create     reduction in subsidies or other
the impact of any subsidy reduction or removal.                                                                         a slowdown in the market as a whole, and this in turn
For example, our survey suggests that 18% of
                                                            to be a great opportunity for alternative investment
                                                                                                                        will impact M&A activity,” says Osborne. He further       support could have a positive
                                                            that offers long-term, high-value returns for corporates
respondents see a move away from subsidies in
                                                            and power companies. It gives them the diversification
                                                                                                                        explains that subsidy decreases in one Asian country      impact on the availability of
Western Europe as advantageous for longer-term                                                                          can result in an internal slowdown but increased
decision making. While seemingly counterintuitive,
                                                            they need while also promising growth.”
                                                                                                                        activity elsewhere in the region: “A recent absence of    project finance in Western
this is likely to reflect the fact that, while government   The director of corporate strategy and development          subsidised PPAs above 10MW with Thai state offtakers
support has played a big part in growing renewables,        at an independent generator/power producer in               has resulted in an increase in outbound M&A activity as   Europe in the next two years
it has also left the sector vulnerable to policy shifts.    Germany agrees: “Subsidies in Europe now really do          Thai developers look to Myanmar and Vietnam for both
                                                            not play a big role in renewable energy development.        greenfield and operational wind and solar projects.”
However, it would be an oversimplification to see
                                                            They have become cost competitive through                                                                             A notable proportion of respondents go so far
subsidy withdrawals or reductions alone as the                                                                          Impact on project finance
                                                            innovation and strict government policies regarding                                                                   as to argue that a decrease in subsidy support
primary cause of this shift in sentiment. Instead, the                                                                  As with M&A opportunities, our survey shows that
                                                            carbon emissions. Companies and investors                                                                             could increase the availability of project finance
increasing maturity of renewable energy markets –                                                                       renewables industry players in Europe believe that
                                                            understand its potential, so they will increase their                                                                 in Western Europe (22%) and the Nordics (30%),
of which subsidy withdrawals and reductions are a                                                                       a reduction in subsidy support would have no short-
                                                            investments in renewable energy, which will lead to                                                                   and this mirrors the response seen with regards
symptom – is boosting confidence among lenders                                                                          term impact on the availability of project finance.
                                                            increased M&A activity.”                                                                                              M&A opportunities.
and buyers.
                                                            In fact, the outlook for European renewables M&A            This positive perspective is also indicative of a
Subsidies, support and M&A activity                                                                                     maturing market, in which early adopting banks will       The message is clear: renewable energy projects
                                                            activity is so promising, according to the managing                                                                   are becoming stable enough in Europe to no longer
There is a clear move towards subsidy-free development      director of an investment firm based in Switzerland,        remain, but will now also be joined by other lenders
in both Western Europe and the Nordics, and most                                                                        that have an increasing desire to bulk up their green     require subsidies to maintain their growth. For a
                                                            that there is a call from some companies and                                                                          growing number, removing subsidies is seen as a
respondents in our survey believe this will have no         investors to cut subsidies entirely “so that renewable      and sustainable financing portfolios – renewables
impact on M&A opportunities in those regions. Indeed,                                                                   projects tick the right boxes.                            vote of confidence. Given the historic reliance on
                                                            energy can be free from government involvement,                                                                       subsidies, this seems surprising, but it suggests that
a significant proportion see subsidy reductions as          which will make the industry more robust and open”.         And as the director of corporate strategy and             once grid parity is reached and subsidies are no
having a positive impact both in Western Europe (18%)
                                                            The renewables market in Asia and the Middle East,          development at an independent generator/power             longer required, more lenders will be willing to lend
and the Nordics (20%). This suggests that purchasers
                                                            by contrast, is not as mature and almost two-thirds         producer in Germany points out, “regardless of            and there will be one less hurdle (accreditation or
are comfortable with the risk and have been able
                                                            of respondents argue that a reduction in subsidies          subsidies or government support, project financing        equivalent) to overcome. The focus is shifting away
to build a subsidy-free renewables market into their
                                                            would have a negative impact on M&A opportunities           in the renewable energy sector in Europe is going         from subsidies and on to achieving grid parity, as
revenue forecast models.
                                                                                                                        to increase”.
14           WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                              THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                                Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs   15

well as the use of longer-term CPPAs to manage                  “It may not have been significantly used in the past for
merchant risk and allow more consumers to take                  renewables projects, but the same considerations and
advantage of a renewable energy mix.                            principles apply and the same project finance teams
                                                                involved with the financing of renewable projects have
In Asia and the Middle East, the outlook for project
                                                                been financing other infrastructure projects, including
finance is once again markedly different and again, it
                                                                conventional power generation projects, on an
is a question of maturity. The adoption of renewables in
                                                                ongoing basis – in some countries, like Indonesia and
Asia and the Middle East is still relatively nascent and it
                                                                Vietnam, it’s been happening for over a decade.”
is too early for these regions to be weaned off subsidies
entirely. Asia’s vast renewables market is also much            The difference is that, with the exception of a few
more heterogeneous than in Europe and investors may             outliers, very few renewables deals in the region have
be wary of entering this relatively new territory.              been done on a “traditional” non-recourse project
                                                                finance basis in the manner with which international
The fragmented nature of Asia’s renewables markets
                                                                European banks are familiar. This may be a function of
is probably most apparent among the 10 countries of
                                                                the size of the earlier Asia-based developers and the
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
                                                                familiarity of the regional banks with the asset class.
All 10 ASEAN members have set a target of achieving
                                                                According to Er, banks did not historically view
23% of their power generation from renewable
                                                                renewables as a separate asset class. Instead, many
energy sources by 2025.10 At present, only five ASEAN
                                                                regional commercial banks and some international
members, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand,
                                                                ones, treated renewables as a subset of their regular
Singapore and, most recently, Cambodia, have
                                                                corporate lending business. Developers were often
moved to some sort of competitive bidding process
                                                                offered corporate lending products rather than
for renewable energy generation projects. Rather than
                                                                project finance, mostly because early renewables
signalling a stable renewables market and a new
                                                                projects were not deemed to be sizeable enough
opportunity for investment, any hint that subsidies may
                                                                or sufficiently bankable. An exception to the above
be withdrawn is going to be scrutinised very carefully.
                                                                approach would be the renewable projects that were
At the same time, project finance is not a new                  funded by multilateral agencies such as the Asian
arena for countries in the region. Options have been            Development Bank.
available to fund infrastructure projects throughout
Asia for years.
“The project finance market in Asia is generally
mature,” says Shawn Er, a finance partner in Watson
Farley & Williams’ global energy sector in Singapore.

FIGURE 6: How do you think a reduction in subsidies or other support might impact the availability
of project finance in the renewables sector in the next two years in the following regions?

   The Nordics      8%                                        62%                                               30%

Western Europe           18%                                          60%                                         22%

                                                                                                                           1%
    Middle East                                    62%                                                    37%

                                                                                                                           1%
           Asia                                   61%                                                    38%

                                            Negative impact         No impact       Positive impact
16          WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                                    THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                                     Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                                                 17

                                                              58%
This may explain why so many respondents in our                                                                            FIGURE 7: How well do you think the financing market is adapting to a greater degree of merchant risk?
survey believe that any reduction in subsidy support
in Asia (61%) and the Middle East (62%) will have a                                                                                                          0%
                                                                                                                              The market is not adapting/         2%
negative impact on the availability of project finance                                                                             hardly adapting at all         2%
in those regions.                                             of financiers believe the                                                                                 6%

At the same time, 38% of our respondents believe              financing market is adapting                                                                                                        26%
                                                                                                                                                                                                 25%
that a decrease in subsidy support in Asia will have                                                                        The market is adapting slowly
no impact on the availability of project finance.             to accept a greater degree                                                                                                                 31%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               35%

“While this is significantly lower than Western Europe        of merchant risk quickly,                                    The market is adapting quickly,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          46%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        58%
and the Nordics, it is higher than anticipated,” says
Er. For example, the initial proposed reduction of            but not quickly enough                                              but not quickly enough                                                30%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          46%
Taiwan’s offshore wind FIT by 12.71%, announced in
                                                                                                                                                                                                    28%
2018, created a significant backlash in the industry                                                                              The market is adapting                           15%
and resulted in some developers announcing that               However, some are circumspect about rushing                             sufficiently quickly                                                 33%
                                                                                                                                                                                    17%
they would reconsider their investments. Since then,          headlong into uncharted territory: “It takes time for
the government has adjusted its plans and reduced             the investor market to understand the application of                                                                  Financiers
                                                                                                                                                                  Developers                            Independent power producers/     Investors
FITs by just 5.71%.11                                         risks,” cautions the head of finance at a utility based                                                                                   generators and utilities
                                                              in the Middle East.
“All of this suggests a market that is largely still
not prepared to thrive in a subsidy-free environment,”        Projects that rely on exposure to wholesale electricity
he adds.                                                      markets, without the safety net of price guarantees,         FIGURE 8: How well do you think the developer/investor market is adapting to a greater degree of merchant risk?
                                                              present a new type of risk for lenders. This is likely
Merchant risk
                                                              to have repercussions throughout the financing                                                            6%
Clearly, any reduction in subsidies and other forms                                                                           The market is not adapting/              5%
                                                              ecosystem. Banks, for example, are likely to respond                 hardly adapting at all
of support can have significant implications for                                                                                                                  2%
                                                              to increased merchant risk by requiring cash sweeps,                                           0%
project finance and investment, but both are still            potentially making renewables a more challenging
viable without subsidies, provided merchant risk              proposition for equity investors. This, in turn, is likely
                                                                                                                                                                                                  26%
                                                                                                                            The market is adapting slowly                                20%
is properly managed or mitigated.                             to stimulate demand for alternative non-bank finance.                                                                                            35%
                                                                                                                                                                                            23%
The financing market is adjusting quickly to the              While a majority of respondents in Europe believe that
idea of a post-subsidy world.                                 project finance will remain available in a subsidy-free
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            48%
                                                                                                                           The market is adapting quickly,                                                                               60%
“Given the more market-driven approach and rapid              market, over half of respondents overall think that                 but not quickly enough                                                                 45%
                                                              cash sweep or other tenor reduction mechanics will                                                                                                                         60%
development happening in the renewable energy
sector, the financing market is adapting to the               become a standard feature of project finance loans for                                                                    20%
                                                                                                                                  The market is adapting                           15%
merchant risk involved quite quickly,” says the head          projects that are exposed to merchant risk. This rises to               sufficiently quickly                            18%
of finance at a developer in France. “The energy              68% among independent power producers/generators                                                                       17%
market is transitioning and the financing market has          and utilities.
to develop ways to manage that risk effectively to            As with the evolution of any new business model, new                                                Developers        Financiers          Independent power producers/      Investors
make a competitive offer for investment.”                                                                                                                                                               generators and utilities
                                                              approaches and protections will need to be tested
However, some respondents question whether the                to determine what works and what does not. The
financing market is moving quickly enough to accept           wind subsector underlines this point: 15 years ago,          FIGURE 9: Do you think cash sweep or other tenor reduction mechanics will become a standard feature
a greater degree of merchant risk.                            success hinged on predicting wind resources and              of project finance loans for projects that are exposed to merchant risks?
                                                              understanding turbine technology; today, reliable
Opinions on the financing market vary greatly among           technical modelling is a given. The challenge now                                                                                                             46%
the different respondent groups: 58% of financiers            is predicting power prices and having the necessary                                                                                                                        58%
                                                                                                                                                      Yes                                                                                                 68%
think it is adapting quickly, but not quickly enough          tenor reduction mechanics in place to mitigate risk.                                                                                                              49%
versus just 30% of independent power producers/
generators and utilities respondents.                                                                                                                                                               28%
                                                                                                                                                                                            22%
                                                                                                                                                      No
As for the developer/investor market, 53% of                                                                                                                                                22%
respondents think it is adapting quickly, but not quickly                                                                                                                                    23%
enough to accept more merchant risk. Financiers and                                                                                                                                               26%
investors are the most likely to say this (both 60%), while                                                                                     Not sure                                  20%
                                                                                                                                                                             10%
independent power producers/generators and utilities                                                                                                                                                28%
are the least (45%).
                                                                                                                                                                  Developers         Financiers          Independent power producers/         Investors
                                                                                                                                                                                                         generators and utilities
18          WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                                THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                                 Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                                          19

CH A P T E R T HRE E

O P P O R TUNITIE S AND R I SKS
IN SUBS IDY- FRE E I NVESTM ENTS

The outlook for subsidy-free investment opportunities is bright –                                                    FIGURE 10: When do you think a notable number of attractive subsidy/support-free investment opportunities
it’s simply a matter of where and when.                                                                              are likely to become available for the following renewables? (Select one for each)

                                                                                                                                                Offshore                                 Onshore                                  Solar PV

Those working on the renewable energy frontlines,          The right time and place to invest                                                        11%                                 7% 7%                                    5%
                                                                                                                                              15%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             22%
particularly in Europe, can already see a future with      Future investment opportunities vary significantly                                                                                                             18%
subsidy and support-free investment opportunities in       by geography. Attractive subsidy-free investment                                                                     26%
solar PV and onshore and offshore wind.                    opportunities may be within reach in Europe,                 Europe
                                                                                                                                        25%
“The main driver behind subsidy-free projects is the       but local governments throughout Asia are
levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) coming down,” says    proceeding at very different rates.                                                             49%                                      60%
Jordan at Watson Farley & Williams. “Fundamentally,        While China has announced it will prioritise                                                                                                                             55%
LCOE is driven down by lower capex/opex and                subsidy-free wind and solar12 – and reduce
greater simplicity in the permitting process.”             curtailment rates13 – some governments are
                                                           proceeding with caution, even where renewables                                        3% 7%                                    3% 7%                                        3%
In Germany, for example, the relatively cumbersome                                                                                                                                                                          20%
permitting process has contributed to higher LCOE          in Europe have reached grid parity. But they are
and has slowed the reduction of capex in onshore           taking steps, and there is clear interest among                                                  27%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               30%
                                                           investors and financiers alike.                              South                                                   40%
wind compared to other jurisdictions. But Germany                                                                       East Asia
is on the brink of its first subsidy-free projects and,    “Investors are deploying hundreds of millions in                                                                                          50%
in particular, solar PV projects have already enjoyed      equity in the Asian market,” says Stergoulis. “In                              63%
a degree of subsidy-free success.                          countries like Taiwan, where you have political risk                                                                                                                 47%

What is particularly interesting is the market’s bullish   and less currency liquidity, the export credit agencies
view of offshore technology. Respondents in our            are unlocking project finance: without the export
                                                           credit agencies, you wouldn’t have large financings                      There are already a notable             Will likely take 1-2 years     Will likely take 5-10 years
survey clearly see offshore wind projects as capable                                                                                number of attractive subsidy-free
of thriving in a post-subsidy world. This is despite       going through. In more established markets like                                                                  Will likely take 3-4 years     Will likely take more than 10 years
                                                                                                                                    investment opportunities
the fact that they are significantly more complex and      South Korea and Japan, there is plenty of project
require much higher capex than either onshore wind         finance. But all of this investment relies on tariffs –
or solar. Subsidy-free or zero-bids were pioneered in      otherwise no one would take the risk.”
Germany’s 2017/2018 auctions, which produced               These different levels of regional optimism are           In South East Asia, by contrast, subsidy-free               Regulation: beating the blockers
the world’s first subsidy-free bid for offshore wind,      clearly shown in our survey findings: 60% of              opportunities are expected to emerge one after              What is holding back the development of subsidy-
and many other jurisdictions have since followed suit.     respondents in Europe say that it will only be a          the other over a longer period, with solar PV first,        free projects? Overall, it’s a mixed picture, which is
                                                           couple of years before a number of subsidy-free           followed by onshore wind and finally offshore wind.         to be expected given the bullish outlook on subsidy-
“Capex levels need to come down to the point where
a project can thrive in a subsidy-free environment,        investment opportunities emerge for onshore               Almost two-thirds of respondents say it will take           free opportunities. Lenders are willing to take a
based on the prevailing power prices. Those who have       wind, while only 7% of South East Asia-based              anywhere from five to ten years for subsidy-free            degree of risk and allow developers operational
made zero-subsidy bids in offshore auctions are, to        respondents say the same.                                 offshore wind investment opportunities to reach             flexibility to drive down costs through the lifetime
some extent, speculating on capex coming down by                                                                     significant numbers.                                        of the project, and this trend is likely to continue.
                                                           The homogeneity of Europe’s technology timeline
the time they have to deliver the project,” adds Jordan.   is also notable. Solar PV, onshore wind and                                                                           For example, economies of scale are particularly
“We have yet to see a fully subsidy-free offshore          offshore wind are all marching (more or less) in                                                                      important in bringing down capex as a percentage
project that has achieved its commercial operation         step, with all three expected to offer subsidy-free                                                                   of total spend in offshore wind projects. But if
date, when the system becomes fully operational and        investment opportunities in the near term among                                                                       developers are going to drive down capex by
can begin selling power under the terms of the PPA.”       survey respondents.
20           WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                                   THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                                     Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                                                     21

FIGURE 11: Which of the following do you see as the biggest obstacles holding back the development                         FIGURE 12: Which of the following do you see as the biggest obstacles holding back the development of subsidy/
of subsidy/support-free projects? (Select top three)                                                                       support-free projects for the following renewables? (Select top three, regional splits)

                                                                                                       66%                                                                                  Offshore wind
                Bankability concerns                                                        53%
                                                                                              56%                          Bank/financial institutions “aren’t ready” to move away from                                                                       63%
         Bank/financial institutions                                                                                         long-term contracted revenues at the start of construction                                                                                71%
“aren’t ready” to move away from                                                                57%
                                                                                                       65%                                          Levelised cost of electricity in the                                                                      63%
   long-term contracted revenues                                                                                                                                                                                                                       54%
                                                                                          52%                                                     relevant jurisdiction is still too high
         at the start of construction
                                                                                 43%                                                                              Bankability concerns                                                                52%
  Levelised cost of electricity in the                                                                                                                                                                                                               51%
                                                                                                 60%
relevant jurisdiction is still too high                                                       56%
                                                                                                                                                    Restrictive/unsupportive/complex                                                      43%
                                                                         34%                                                                                   policies and regulation                                                                                  74%
         Increased technology risks                         22%
                                                                                                                                        Low demand from potential electricity buyers                                         31%
                                                                                    46%
                                                                                                                                              and/or underdeveloped CPPA market                               21%
                                                                    30%
             Risk of cannibalisation                      21%                                                                                              Increased technology risks                                  26%
                                                         20%                                                                                                                                         11%

                                                                                       50%                                                                     Risk of cannibalisation                         22%
 Restrictive/unsupportive/complex                                                                                                                                                                           18%
                                                                                        51%
            policies and regulation                                             43%
       Low demand from potential                         20%                                                                                                                                Onshore wind
          electricity buyers and/or                                28%
     underdeveloped CPPA market                                   27%                                                      Bank/financial institutions “aren’t ready” to move away from                                                                55%
                                                                                                                             long-term contracted revenues at the start of construction                                                                       63%
                                          Onshore wind       Offshore wind       Solar PV                                                           Levelised cost of electricity in the                                                 42%
                                                                                                                                                  relevant jurisdiction is still too high                                                      47%

                                                                                                                                                                  Bankability concerns                                                                             66%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      70%
scaling up, then a reasonable and stable regulatory            A different story emerges in Asia, where restrictive,                                                                                                                            48%
                                                                                                                                                    Restrictive/unsupportive/complex
environment surrounding onshore grids becomes                  unsupportive and complex policies and regulations are                                           policies and regulation                                                                53%
even more important. This is an area where                     clear obstacles, particularly for offshore wind projects.                Low demand from potential electricity buyers                             22%
developers may still be dependent on the local                                                                                                and/or underdeveloped CPPA market                       13%
                                                               “EU regulations have an impact on all countries
government, even in a subsidy-free environment.
                                                               within the EU, but there are currently no equivalent                                        Increased technology risks                                              38%
“In Europe, the stable regulatory environment is already       supranational regulations in Asia,” says Jon Thursby,                                                                                       17%
allowing for a transition to subsidy-free projects,” says      a projects partner in Watson Farley & Williams’ global                                                                                                   29%
                                                                                                                                                               Risk of cannibalisation
Jordan. “These projects are often backed by CPPAs to           energy sector in Singapore. “The regulatory regimes                                                                                                                 37%
help stabilise the cash flow – and we’re already seeing        of the countries hosting renewables projects can vary
these in Spain and the Nordics.”                               dramatically. Further, although the regulatory regimes
                                                                                                                                                                                              Solar PV
                                                               in some countries in Asia, such as Taiwan, are well
There is also the question of regulation as it relates
                                                               established, regimes elsewhere in the region were only      Bank/financial institutions “aren’t ready” to move away from                                                                53%
to capacity: is the existing grid capable of consuming                                                                       long-term contracted revenues at the start of construction                                                              51%
                                                               introduced very recently or are still being developed.”
the electricity that will be generated by a hypothetical
                                                                                                                                                    Levelised cost of electricity in the                                                                     61%
offshore wind project? If not, there is significant            Policy and regulation to support offshore wind are still
                                                                                                                                                  relevant jurisdiction is still too high                                                 44%
curtailment risk and this is even more acute in                works in progress in the region. Thursby highlights
offshore wind projects, which have a single point              that “Japan has only recently passed legislation on                                                Bankability concerns                                                               51%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        74%
of access to the grid.                                         setting up a national framework for offshore wind that,
                                                               among other things, addresses fishing rights, which                                  Restrictive/unsupportive/complex                                                   43%
As Jordan notes: “If the grid has not been                                                                                                                     policies and regulation                                               40%
                                                               are particularly contentious in Japan”.
sufficiently upgraded, it may not be possible to feed                                                                                   Low demand from potential electricity buyers                                    29%
in that electricity on a technical level. Therefore,           Meanwhile Doan adds that, in Vietnam, there is                                 and/or underdeveloped CPPA market                            17%
understanding the regulatory answers to curtailment            currently uncertainty over which government entity is                                                                                                                        46%
risk is becoming increasingly important, as well as            ultimately responsible for granting offshore sea rights,                                    Increased technology risks
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          44%
helping evaluate the consequences of the offshore              as well restrictions on mortgaging assets and sea
                                                                                                                                                               Risk of cannibalisation                     17%
project being compensated for electricity it is not            sites to lenders.                                                                                                                                         30%
able to feed in because the grid has not been
sufficiently upgraded.”
                                                                                                                                                                                            Europe          South East Asia
22          WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                             THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                              Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                                              23

                                                          74%
Supportive and unambiguous policies and                                                                             Lack of subsidies: the impact on returns                   FIGURE 13: Do you think that if a renewable project
regulations are vital for the development of offshore                                                               The renewables market is somewhat divided over             were subsidy/support-free, it would result in a tightening
wind, which is complex and risky. While the market                                                                  the impact that a lack of subsidies might have             of the assumed IRR?
is demonstrably comfortable dealing with technology                                                                 on the anticipated internal rate of return (IRR) in
risk (in Asia, adaptations include dealing with           of respondents in South East                              investments, but the overall trend is positive.
deep water installations and managing typhoon
resistance), it is much less sanguine about the
                                                          Asia believe that bankability                                   Yes
                                                                                                                    “We understand     the true potential of renewable                Yes                              58%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                74%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        60%
potential impact of regulation. Three-quarters (74%)      is one of the biggest obstacles                           energy and believe that it will not depend on subsidies
                                                                                                                          No
                                                                                                                    or government support in the future,” says the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      89%
of respondents in the region cite this as a blocker.
                                                          holding back the development                              managing director of a project financier in Finland.
                                                                                                                                                                                      No
                                                                                                                                                                                                         26%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 42%
The sense that Asian countries need to up their                                                                     “We are among those investors who believe that                                              40%
regulatory game is not restricted to offshore wind,       of subsidy-free solar PV projects                         subsidies restrict the potential of renewable energy, so                      11%
as the Mumbai-based managing director of a                                                                          we are open to taking risks when investing in projects.”
project financier points out: “Because of poor policy                                                                                                                                          Developers          Financiers
                                                                                                                    A healthy proportion of survey respondents seem
implementation by regulators and complex policies,
                                                          Bankability concerns are holding back                     to agree: nearly a third say it would not tighten the                      Independent power producers/               Investors
renewable energy investments continue to remain in
                                                          subsidy-free renewables projects                          assumed IRR. And even those respondents who predict                        generators and utilities
the nascent stage in most of Asia. New investment
                                                          The transition to subsidy-free renewables is one of the   that subsidy-free projects will temper IRR expectations
and progress in development will remain slow until
                                                          biggest systemic changes the industry has faced to        cannot be assumed to be ruling out investment.
more effective policies are implemented. We need
regulations and policies that reduce the risks, and       date. The situation is complicated by the speed with
                                                                                                                    As has already been pointed out, a majority of             FIGURE 14: Do you think that if a renewable project
those policies should be flexible to adapt to new         which some renewables are approaching grid parity.
                                                                                                                    respondents believe there will be attractive subsidy-      were subsidy/support-free, it would result in a tightening
technologies and changing markets quickly.”               In the case of utility-scale solar PV, for example, the
                                                                                                                    free investment opportunities for onshore, offshore        of the assumed tenor of any available financing?
                                                          price has declined so fast that it is already cheaper
                                                                                                                    and solar in the very near future, although it is
A clear example of a successful flexible approach,        than coal in some geographies.
                                                                                                                    open to debate whether these respondents have
and one that highlights how specific sectors in certain                                                                                                                                                                    69%
                                                          The shifting interplay of costs, revenue and subsidy      assumed they will be able to mitigate increased                                                50%
countries can flourish, is the deployment of solar                                                                                                                                    Yes
                                                          for each renewable technology makes weighing up           levels of merchant risk through alternative                                                   47%
rooftops in Thailand, which has resulted in subsidy-                                                                                                                                                                          71%
                                                          the bankability of projects increasingly complex.         instruments, such as CPPAs.
free projects.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          31%
                                                          “The key issue in Asian renewable project finance is      Investors in our survey are the ones most likely to                                            50%
As Osborne notes, “solar rooftop developers are                                                                                                                                       No
                                                          the bankability of any given project in the particular    believe a lack of subsidies will tighten the anticipated                                        53%
in fact selling electricity to commercial users at a                                                                                                                                                      29%
                                                          jurisdiction and the credibility of the developers        IRR, with 89% saying this is the case versus 58%
discount to the prevailing government tariffs”.
                                                          involved,” says Er.                                       among financiers at the other end of the scale.
Of the obstacles identified, it is encouraging to see                                                               Investors are also most likely to point to subsidy-free                   Developers           Financiers
the relatively low rank given to technology risk and      “Government subsidies, such as feed-in tariffs,
                                                                                                                    projects tightening the assumed tenor of available
low power demand among survey respondents in              increase the bankability of those projects for                                                                                      Independent power producers/                Investors
                                                                                                                    financing (71%).                                                          generators and utilities
both Europe and Asia. As renewable projects and           international banks, providing certainty of revenue.
                                                          And while the fact that many banks have a mandate         In terms of the impact of subsidy removals on
the underlying technology are better understood
                                                          to increase their participation in green financing is     technological innovation, the regional differences
by lenders, covenant packages in respect of the
                                                          helpful to the growth of the industry, it will not be     highlighted in our survey findings are stark: 84% of       FIGURE 15: How do you think a future reduction in subsidies/
operation of projects are likely to be loosened,
                                                          enough to enable governments in Asia to withdraw          respondents in South East Asia believe that a lack         support and benefits for renewable generation projects would
allowing developers to improve their projects.
                                                          subsidies for renewables projects entirely.”              of subsidies/support/benefits would slow the pace
                                                                                                                                                                               affect the pace of technological advances in the sector?
As Stewart points out, “this has already been                                                                       of technological advances in the sector versus just
seen in covenant packages, which potentially              Looking at onshore wind, two-thirds of respondents
                                                                                                                    16% in Europe. In fact, 42% of respondents in Europe
allow UK solar projects to include a battery              overall agree that bankability concerns are the
                                                                                                                    argue it would speed up technological advances.              Cause it          16%
storage component retrospectively”.                       biggest obstacle holding back the development                                                                                                                             84%
                                                                                                                                                                                  to slow
                                                          of subsidy/support-free projects.                         As the subsidy-free era draws closer, especially
                                                                                                                    in Europe, attention is rapidly turning to what              Have no                        42%
                                                          A similar percentage of respondents say that subsidy/                                                                    effect         13%
                                                                                                                    replacement long-term, sustainable and guaranteed
                                                          support-free offshore wind projects are being held                                                                                                    42%
                                                                                                                    sources of revenue will be available to renewable          Cause it to
                                                          back by banks and other financial institutions that                                                                   speed up     3%
                                                                                                                    energy projects.
                                                          aren’t ready to move away from long-term contracted
                                                          revenues at the start of construction.                    More detailed questions on the role of PPAs and                           Europe            South East Asia
                                                                                                                    new trends in the market, particularly CPPAs, are
                                                          Just over half of European respondents also believe
                                                                                                                    becoming increasingly important.
                                                          that bankability concerns are an obstacle for solar
                                                          PV – rising to 74% among respondents in South East
                                                          Asia. Meanwhile, 61% of respondents in Europe say
                                                          the high LCOE in the jurisdiction is an obstacle to
                                                          subsidy-free solar PV projects.
24          WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS                                                                                                                               THE FUTURE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                                                                Renewable power generation, merchant risk and the growth of corporate PPAs                                       25

CH A P T E R F O UR

CO R P O RATE P O WER
P U R C H AS E AG RE EM ENTS

CPPAs are on the rise as more businesses strive to improve their green credentials                                    FIGURE 16: Which of the following do you believe are seen by offtakers to be the most important benefits
while also controlling their energy costs. But there are still obstacles to be overcome.                              to committing to a CPPA? (Select top two)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                      49%
                                                                                                                      Net reduction in carbon emissions                                                                     53%
                                                                                                                                to meet company goals                                                              47%
The growth in the use of renewable CPPAs is                 Drivers of growth in CPPAs                                                                                                                                            58%
continuing to make waves in the market. The likes of        CPPAs are attractive to both offtakers and generators                                                                                                     49%
Google, Mercedes-Benz, Unilever and Amazon have             alike because they meet multiple goals, including               Ability to market company                                                           45%
been grabbing headlines over the past few years with        access to finance, carbon reduction, price and                               as sustainable                                                               50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  58%
their entry into renewable CPPAs – Amazon alone             revenue certainty, security of supply and risk control.
has now entered into CPPAs for a reported 1.3GW                                                                                                                                                              43%
of green generation capacity globally.14 The influence      For renewable generators and their financiers,                    Savings in cost of power                                                              48%
                                                            a key attraction of a CPPA is predictable long-                                                                                                                 53%
of these pacesetters should not be underestimated.                                                                                                                                                 35%
                                                            term revenue. This helps to secure funding for
“Clients are increasingly interested in the potential for   new projects, which is increasingly important as                                                                                     34%
corporate offtake. This is no longer a niche position,      government subsidies for renewables in Europe and                           Price certainty                                        32%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  35%
and even relatively traditional players are now looking     elsewhere are slowly withdrawn.                                                                                             26%
at this for a number of their projects,” says Diez.
                                                            Long-term revenue certainty can also be obtained                                                                          25%
Interest in CPPAs is not limited to European or US                                                                     Increased security of supply via                            22%
                                                            by generators entering into long-term PPAs with            diversification in power sources                   15%
markets either, and there is an expectation that they       traditional utility offtakers on the basis of fixed or                                                                  23%
will also develop a substantial role in Asian markets       floored prices. While this is a stable, growing market,
in the near future.                                         the scope for significant increases for such contracts                                         Developers      Financiers     Independent power producers/generators and utilities   Investors
“There has been an increase in CPPAs over the               is viewed as relatively limited compared to that for
past couple of years and this will prompt better            the young CPPA market.
acceptance rates in the coming years as well,”              CPPAs can also provide generators with access to          For offtakers, CPPAs offer a similar list of potential      While we expect that, over time, these would give
says the CEO of an independent generator/power              higher electricity prices: while utility counterparties   benefits. CPPAs can provide offtakers with access           way to other considerations, these are currently the
producer in Singapore.                                      come to PPA negotiations benchmarking against             to cheaper power (as compared to retail pricing),           primary drivers for offtakers.
                                                            wholesale prices, corporate counterparties,               and greater certainty of cost and security of supply
CPPAs: what are they?                                                                                                                                                             “The sustainability provisions that are now available
                                                            particularly smaller ones, are often benchmarking         over long-term horizons than would be available under
A renewable CPPA is an agreement for the sale                                                                                                                                     have been one of the main reasons for the surge in
                                                            against retail.                                           conventional electricity sourcing arrangements. This is
and purchase of electricity between a renewable                                                                                                                                   CPPA uptake and changes in pricing structures aimed
                                                                                                                      particularly attractive to energy-intensive businesses.
generator (such as a windfarm operator) and a               Some financiers also look to CPPAs to provide risk                                                                    to be beneficial to the corporate setting would be one
company that needs to buy electricity for its own use       diversification within their portfolios.                  But it is the need to both be green and to be seen to       of the key drivers,” says the director of M&A at a utility
(as opposed to a supplier or reseller that intends to                                                                 be green that is also a key draw of CPPAs for offtakers,    based in Spain.
                                                            “With the utility-offtake model, the ultimate credit      driven in large part by shifts in consumer expectations
on-sell the electricity).
                                                            for lenders ends up being a relatively limited list       around climate change and corporate responsibility.
CPPAs are usually entered into on the basis of an           of utilities with similar exposures and more or less      Half of all respondents back up this idea, agreeing
electricity price that is fixed or otherwise limits the     correlated financial health. Injecting corporate          that a net reduction in carbon emissions to meet
parties’ exposure to movements in the market price,         offtakers into lenders’ portfolios broadens their         company goals and the ability to market the company
e.g. via a cap and collar arrangement.                      exposures to a wider and less correlated group of         as sustainable are two of the most important benefits
                                                            credits,” explains James Harrison, senior associate       to offtakers committing to a CPPA.
                                                            in Watson Farley & Williams’ global energy sector
                                                            in London.
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