GLOBAL THOUGHT LEADERS PREDICTIONS FOR MOBILITY 2021 - MOBILITY SUMMIT - Farran
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GLOBAL THOUGHT
LEADERS
PREDICTIONS
FOR MOBILITY 2021
BROUGHT TO YOU BY
Electronomous
The International Mobility Summit
THE INTERNATIONAL
MOBILITY
SUMMIT
WITH CONTRIBUTIONS BY
END OF YEAR NOTE.
Thank you to all those who took part in We are delighted to announce a series of
Electronomous 2020 – The International Online events, (webinars, workshops and
Mobility Summit. (Virtual) roundtables, & Investment brokerage events)
will be coming in the new year. Please do
reach out to us if you or your company would
OUR MISSION THIS YEAR like take part. You can reach out to us at
getinvolved@electronomous.com
To Create an Inspirational & Engaging
Platform for Global thought leaders in Our plans to host liveevents in 2021 are
the International Mobility & Smart City currently underway and we hope to make an
community. announcement soon regarding these.
3000+ of you joined the conversation from Finally, I would like to extend my thanks to all
over 80 different countries during the course 80+speakers that dialed in from across the
of the two day event this year. We appreciate globe and shared their incredible knowledge
it doesn’t quite have the same feel as a live, this year. As we wrap this year, we have put
in-person event but it created a platform for together some predictions with the assistance
business to continue and ensured that these of some Globalindustry thought leaders. We
important Mobility conversations continued. hope some of these predictions will assist you
to plan for a more successful 2021.
The Covid pandemic has further high-lighted
the importance of Mobility and Smart City Let’s make 2021 the year we
technology. I think if we are to take one #buildbackbetter.
message from this year’s event it would be
collaboration. In order for us to accelerate Wishing you all the best for the year ahead.
the progress of Smart and Sustainable
Transport in our cities,technology providers,
transport authorities, mobility companies, Keith Whelan
OEM’s and Policy makers must continue to Event Director.
collaborate. Let’s not waste the opportunity to #electronomous
#buildbackbetter.
To our partners and sponsors- this isn’t
possible without you and we look forward to
delivering for you again on future events.
A special congratulations must go to
theinaugural winners of Rising Stars 2020.
Huge Congratulations to Duckt, BitSensing
and Blu Smart on their wins!
David PREDICTIONS FOR
Coleman MAAS RESP. THE MOBILITY
ECOSYSTEM
Director Global Automotive
Practice for Deloitte
The past year has been unique development, pricing, and options 1. Integration Standards: 2. MaaS for the Masses:
in many respects. Smart Cities for customers going forward. Levelling the Playing Field Small- and Medium-Sized Cities
have taken advantage of the crisis, The coming years will be the Embrace Mobility-as-a-Service
and the reduced commuting most exhilarating yet for Smart Implementing data and integration
that has resulted, to overhaul Cities and Mobility, with advances standards is an important and Inspired by success stories in
their Mobility and transportation from OEMs, Tech Giants, city often overlooked aspect of larger urban areas, small- to
agenda. Leading Smart Cities have governments and third parties. successful MaaS systems. At Trafi, medium-sized cities are seeing
converted formerly congested We can look forward to new and we think effective MaaS networks the value in expanding their MaaS
streets into bike lanes, created exciting hardware and digital are defined by their diversity, systems, freeing up congested
pedestrian-only zones, set up innovations, which together can meaning the number of players streets and offering citizens a
EV-only districts and charging transform the mobility experience from across the mobility spectrum variety of mobility options to
networks, reduced speed limits in Smart Cities and beyond. that they involve. Integration choose from. At the same time, the
on a citywide basis, and brought standards are great equalizers that technology these MaaS systems
forward mobility initiatives reduce costs and barriers to entry, are built on is advancing at break-
previously planned for future save time and allow companies neck speeds, allowing for easy
years. and cities alike to provide better adoption and effectively reducing
services. barriers to entry. Combining these
Looking forward, a key battle in factors, it’s safe to assume that
Mobility will play out between many smaller cities are poised
OEMs and tech giants to to start building out their MaaS
1) own more of the mobility networks in 2021.
value chain,
2) control the customer’s end- 3. Connected Cities:
to-end experience, and 3) access The Future of MaaS
Christof
and monetize the customer’s
profile and usage data. OEMs are We’ve arrived at an exciting era
innovating with fully connected for MaaS. Until recently, MaaS
Schminke
hardware and service concepts, systems were typically designed
which offer a portfolio of digital solely with downtown urban areas
and driving-related enhancements. in mind. Now, MaaS is expanding
Meanwhile, tech giants now its limits: the introduction of
Managing Director
provide embedded vehicle intercity systems like the Trafi-
Commercial - Trafi GmbH
operating systems, which deliver powered yumuv app in Switzerland
an enhanced UX and improved allows multiple city networks to be
application functionality directly connected with one another and
to the customer. The outcome of accessed through a single app.
this Mobility battle will influence Having “one app to rule them all” -
particularly one that functions on a
regional scale - has major benefits
for users, offering them flexibility,
freedom and a seamless travel
experience.
Dr. Timo
point to an acceleration in This trend away from high street
mainstream awareness of global shopping, further enhanced by the
warming and air pollution and, reduction in commuter’s spending
Möller
vitally importantly, a willingness in city centre workplaces, will
not to just talk positively then accelerate a complete reappraisal
procrastinate, but to take of the future role of cities. For
Partner | Head of McKinsey action. We all need to change retail, high streets need to
our approach, behaviours and transition from being a function to
Center for Future Mobility
purchasing to help improve the an experience, and draw buyers
world around us. A sustainability- back in to attractive destinations.
Rob
first approach to mobility will This could be accelerated with
2020 has been a special year in support of capital markets, and on environmental issues when transform the environments we the growth of localism, with local
mobility. Next year will also bring many special purpose acquisition enacting mobility guidelines. For live and work in. We still need to communities supporting local
Fowler
much uncertainty but one thing is companies have recently made instance, European officials are do much of what we do today, business, and the rise of niche
definite: mobility will continue to some successful deals. In planning to create more stringent but we need to do it in a far boutique stores, rather than
evolve in exciting ways. 2021, disruptors will exert their carbon-reduction targets to meet more environmental way, always the large retail chains of today.
presence more strongly. While the Paris Agreement about climate considering the impact on our Another possible outcome could
Changing consumer they may compete with traditional change. Many governments are Chief Executive Officer surroundings. We must make be a mass redevelopment of
preferences and a greater companies in some areas, they will also creating new incentives to of Volta Trucks these coming few years count in current retail and office space
focus on sustainability cooperate with them in others. boost the sales of carbon-free the drive towards zero emissions. into residential space, to deal with
Automotive technology will means of transport and others Acceleration in environmental the chronic shortage of low-cost
When the COVID-19 pandemic continue to evolve in 2021 and are issuing guidelines with similar and air pollution awareness The ongoing demise of high- housing that exists. This could
is controlled consumers will be consumers will have greater goals. Already, more than 150 street retail change the face of the Smart City
more willing (again) to use public access to innovations. For cities in Europe restrict access to During the pandemic lockdowns, of the future completely, making
transport and other forms of instance, 60 percent of premium their centers to reduce pollution we all noticed the improvements The coronavirus pandemic has them far more focussed around
shared mobility. That is what OEMs plan to have some and carbon emissions. in air quality with the reduction of accelerated the demise of many of human needs than commercial
consumers across the globe are form of level 4 automation in traffic movement. In November, the great high-street brands, which or corporate needs. That said,
telling us in our regular surveys as their vehicles by 2025. Vehicle Long-term mobility shifts the UK Government led the world is of course very difficult for those as the producer of a full-electric
well as real-life data is indicating electrification will also continue, in announcing an acceleration in personally affected. A combination large commercial vehicle that’s
in urban context. We anticipate and innovations could drive EV Over the next decade, the the ban of internal combustion of cash rich, time poor families specifically designed for inner
that sustainability will continue to costs down even further. (The changes in consumer preferences, cars and vans to 2030, which Volta that don’t ‘go shopping’ in their city distribution, this transition
be an important consideration, total cost of ownership for BEVs technology, and regulations will Trucks supported, and called for masses as they used to, and the could have a positive effect on our
with more consumers opting has already reached parity with contribute to major mobility the ban to extend to commercial unit economics of cheap delivery business model, with many more
for electric and micromobility internal-combustion vehicles in shifts. Regional variations will vehicles too. 2021 will also see the costs and the major reduction residents to serve with their online
solutions, especially in cities. the C-segment). For technology continue to be apparent because COP26 gathering of world leaders, in corporate overheads, have deliveries.
Global car sales may continue overall, we expect that software of differences in government meeting to set the agenda for the accelerated the exponential rise
to decline from their 2019 peak will increasingly become the key response, the intensity of the next stage of tackling the climate of online shopping. I don’t see
as more consumers consider differentiator for vehicles. pandemic, and other factors. For emergency. All of these milestones any short-term reversal of this.
alternatives to car ownership. instance, private-car use may
Regulation will continue to enable drastically decrease in some major
Continued technology the mobility revolution European cities. In North America,
disruptions and widely Regulators will continue to by contrast, this form of transport
available innovations play a major role in helping the will see little change because
mobility sector recover from there are limited incentives to
Despite the pandemic, many the pandemic. Many mobility change mobility behavior. Likewise,
companies have continued to solutions will have an intense consumers in greater China may
invest in disruptive mobility local focus and consider regional increasingly rely on public transit
technologies, including variations related to the pandemic, and rail but major cities in South
autonomous technology, transportation preferences, and Asia will see little change in this
connectivity, EVs, and other city layouts. area.
areas. These businesses have the Continuing the trend seen in
2020, many regulators will focus
VOI TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
accentuated further as people enforce new and better standards
are increasingly looking for more for operators, increasing safety
active and socially distanced and overall trust. Most importantly,
FOR 2021
modes of transport that don’t regulation will lead to better
evolve being cramped inside riding and parking infrastructure,
public transport or stuck in traffic. through the creation of more
cycling lanes and parking
As e-scooter trials continue, alternatives, reducing clutter and
shared e-scooters will become creating an easy to navigate and
an integral part of people’s lives, more inclusive city for all, and
whether it is to commute, shop, overall contributing to Vision Zero.
Covid and a slow return to a with the drop in commuter visit friends and family or just
new normal congestion, and the onward to enjoy the surrounding area. E-scooters will become even
improvements in air quality. Air According to a recent Voi user safer and more sustainable
In recent days, a coronavirus pollution will likely be enhanced if survey, 14 percent of rides replace
vaccine has been approved for the utilisation of public transport cars, reducing pollution and As technology evolves, electric
implementation, but it’s likely continues to drop, with a further congestion. These electric vehicles scooters will become smarter and
that the positive sentiment of increase in personal mobility, like not only take up less space than safer. At Voi, we recently started
the vaccine will outpace the e-bikes and e-scooters. motorised vehicles, but they can a collaboration with Dublin-based
actual speed of rollout into the dramatically improve our urban micro-mobility start-up Luna, to
mainstream, that would allow the Pre and Post-Covid behaviour landscape, freeing up space bring AI and computer vision to
world to return to a new normal. changes will continue to drive previously occupied by cars that our scooters. These and other
It’s likely that mass immunization people to adapt new and green can be transformed to benefit innovations are gradually being
will take most of 2021, by which modes of transport local communities. introduced in vehicles, allowing
time the current flexible working
Richard
riders and e-scooters to be able
practices, the acceleration of The poor air quality we breathe to respond better and faster to
online retail and the avoidance of in our cities has been an Regulation will lead to its surrounding environment,
Corbett
public transport will have become increasing problem. With a fifth better riding and parking pre-empting risks and making
so embedded as to be very difficult of the country’s gas emissions infrastructure e-scooters an even safer mode of
to change. This will fundamentally coming from road transport transport for riders and other road
and irreversibly change our city back in 2017 and up to six per Having launched the first trial in users, particularly vulnerable ones.
Regional General Manager centre environments, meaning cent since 1990, according to the UK market three months ago, Improvements are not restricted
of UK, Ireland and less commuters into city centres a study by the National Office we have seen increasing adoption to e-scooter software; they will
Benelux for Voi and the consequent demise of of Statistics, the climate crisis of e-scooters as a new safe and span across hardware as well,
the economies that serve these was the first precursor of major accessible mode of transport. with longer vehicle lifespans to
communities, such as coffee changes in the way we move in During these few months, 250,000 guarantee minimal environmental
shops, news agents etc. However, our cities. Following the start of rides were taken using our shared impact. Voi is carbon-neutral
there will be upsides for mobility, the pandemic, these changes were scooters, and 300,000 miles since January 2020, and we are
were ridden across the eight committed to continuing to adopt
cities and towns where we are a circular economy approach to
present, demonstrating the need reduce the impact of our scooter
and demand for the service. As and service.
demand for e-scooters grows, These improvements should be
so does the need for regulation, complemented by better and safer
which has been at the core of Voi’s infrastructure to ensure the safety
way of working from day one. With of all road users, in line with Vision
regulation in place, micro-mobility Zero, which like Voi was in Sweden.
can play a major role in the shift For additional content, please visit:
towards electric, shared and https://www.voiscooters.com/blog/
multimodal transport. Regulation
will not only make it easier for
cities to promote and manage new
modes of transport; it will also
Augustin Dr. Florian Marc
Augustin Friedelis a well-known
shared mobility expert with
passion for micro mobility, mobility
Friedel Baumann Berg
on demand service and public
private partnerships. Some of
his projects and reports can be
downloaded here. After launching CTO (Specializing in
Uber in Germany in 2013,
CEO of
Automotive & AI) FREE NOW
Augustin worked for companies
Dell Technologies
like Blacklane, Rocket Internet
and Deutsche Bahn subsidiary
Unstructured Data
ioki. He is currently responsible players in Europe, like VOI and buying a product, this trend will
Solutions Next year will be special. It is the Only a strong network that
for intermodality service topics Tier have full pockets after their spill over to the vehicle sector as year after the pandemic, when combines various providers in the
at Volkswagen AG. The views latest funding rounds. I would The year 2020 was a game-
well. Services are emerging for vaccines hopefully bring society market will have this ability.
expressed in this interview are his predict that this will lead to an changing year both for OEMs
multiple vehicle types, from e-bike back to any kind of normality.
personal ones and not linked to increase competition in medium and suppliers. In 2021,
over mopeds to cars and vans. All From my perspective, we will see In the near future, locomotion will
any Volkswagen activity. and smaller cities in Europe, as Automotive companies are
with the focus to provide flexibility the acceleration of existing trends not only be about the way users
it already started in Germany. focused on reducing costs,
and comfort to consumers, in line and an increasing need for agility get from A to B. Rather, we see
The providers will also intensify improving the developer’s
with competitive total costs of and flexibility of business models. the future of mobility in such a
If it comes to mobility, the year to optimize their hardware, with efficiency and productivity and
ownership. Also, the need for flexible solutions way that a platform aggregates
of 2020 was a rollercoaster for focus on safety, charging and on end-to-end solutions for AD/ for consumers will continue to all available data in order to offer
shared mobility and adjacent ADAS development purposes.
more cost-efficient operations. #3: Continued Electrification grow after this time - as will the the most intuitive and tailor-made
areas. After a strong start at New product extensions like population in the cities. user journey possible across many
the beginning of the year, the charging networks, multiple Apart from MLOps (Machine
Electrification of vehicles in private The trend that mobility platforms areas, which also includes external
industry was hit hard by the modes (e.g., by adding bikes or Learning Operations), DataOps
and also commercial use cases like ours will pave the way for factors such as the weather
COVID-19 pandemic. Modes like mopeds) or V2X communication becomes more important than
is set to increase. First signals people to move from A to B will forecast. We will integrate more
ride hailing have seen dramatic could be on the agenda of the ever before. The development
are emerging that ride hailing lead to much more seamless and and more data to offer a holistic
drops in demand of up to 90% service operators. They might be environment needs a rich
platforms like Uber, Free Now or holistic journeys in the next few experience for all our users.
and are slowly recovering. After also more collaboration between ecosystem of open-source
Lyft are intensifying their efforts years.
a first panic phase, shared micro the different players and local tools and commercial
to increase the share of electric Customers demand flexible and This shift from personal car
mobility is valued by users and city authorities. solutions specific to the
vehicles used on their platforms. individual mobility solutions - they ownership to shared assets and
authorities as a convenient and unique requirements of each
Stimulus programs in multiple want to move conveniently and Mobility as a Service in highly
safe form of transportation. The #2: Subscription as new automotive company.
countries are also creating more at one click, similar to the various dense urban areas will allow for
situation in most markets is still form of leasing demand for electric vehicles as video- or music-on-demand more sustainable use of public
volatile, so what could be potential Dell Technologies has put
private cars. The availability of services. spaces, moving away from road
trends and developments for Vehicle subscriptions will play a together the following map
electric light commercial vehicles expansions and parking spaces
2021? more important role in the coming of workflow and possible
should also improve, followed by For us, the platform of the future towards cycling lanes, tram
years. Players in the different ecosystem solutions. The
a much-needed electrification of is more than the combination lines, or playgrounds, reducing
#1: Shared micro mobility markets have raised significant the delivery and logistics sectors in complete DataOps lifecycle is of different individual mobility congestion and converting the city
on the rise amounts of capital in Series A and urban areas. The trend is triggered illustrated to provide guidance in options like ride-hailing, car- neighbourhoods into greener and
Series B financing rounds. This by an increased pressure from setting it up. More information sharing or e-scooters. It includes liveable areas.
Shared micro mobility operators will be used to grow the customer cities and also used for marketing can be collected from Dell all players in the mobility At FREE NOW, it is our mission
will expand in more markets base and to shape the market. Technologies Automotive
and PR purposes. sector, from the local public to empower smarter mobility
and might come up with new Consumers are already used to Landing page. transportation systems to private decisions, help people to move
products and services. The leading subscribing services instead of citizens who own a vehicle that freely and cities to thrive. We see
they offer to others whenever they ourselves as a strong partner
don’t need it. for regions, and the closer we
interact, leverage information, and
The key to success is collaboration. collaborate, the more curated,
Multimodal mobility platforms efficient, and reliable will urban
like us will contribute to a long- mobility concepts be in the future.
term shift in mobility, as no single
provider will be strong enough to
cover all shared mobility concepts.
Cailin MICROMOBILITY TAKES
Spin have hosted challenges
to improve micromobility
infrastructure. As cycling activity
Crowe OVER URBAN MOBILITY
continues to see gains across
the U.S., local leaders will need
to invest in the necessary
AND TRANSPORT
Associate Editor infrastructure to meet the growing
demand and keep people safe.
Smart Cities Dive
Cities will become smarter at
LUIS
the curb:
Autonomous delivery services Autonomous delivery technologies The ongoing trend towards At the same time, we’re currently
will grace more city sidewalks: should only continue to grow The pandemic has ushered urbanisation will lead to two-thirds seeing tremendous traction for
SPERR
as an emerging staple for the in a new sense of urgency for of the world’s population living in micromobility solutions especially
It’s been a momentous year for transport of goods in 2021. cities to make sense of their cities by 2030. As a result, cities in the field of last-mile logistics.
autonomous delivery technology, curbs. Curbside competition have to cope with emissions and Online shopping for groceries
and 2021 will likely see those Cities will support the cycling has become even more intense air quality as well as congestion. and household goods has seen
services advance even further. renaissance with more over the past year as cyclists, Not in the future but today. skyrocketing demand with growth Investments and
Tech companies like Starship infrastructure: food and e-commerce deliveries, Low to zero-emission rates of more than 50% since the Business Creation
Technologies and Nuro, for and outdoor dining all compete micromobility vehicles will be a COVID-19 imposed lockdown. And
instance, have worked “overtime” Local leaders have witnessed for space. Cities are expected substantial part of the solution. even if such growth rates may Another impact of COVID-19 is
this year to deliver goods and a massive surge in cycling in to continue adapting curbs to Starting with the first- and not last in the long run, they will the big increase of micromobility
groceries. And governments 2020. Cities like Minneapolis efficiently manage competing last-mile, micromobility will remain at a level we wouldn’t have vehicles used for urban trips
have increasingly approved and Oakland, CA, for instance, needs and recognize the space eventually take over a big part thought possible at the beginning and commuting. Especially for
exemptions for companies to closed off their streets entirely to as an asset for uses outside of of all trips made today in urban of 2020. ebikes, the trend to subscription-
test their technologies in public. vehicular traffic to promote safer parking. areas. This includes private and based business models is
cycling, while operators including business trips as well as logistics Not-owning urban mobility gaining momentum bringing a
and delivery transports. lot of advantages for the users.
Services and not owning vehicles Replacement and maintenance
Electrified scooters, mopeds and will be the new normal for services are included and provide
bikes are already widely used for urban mobility. The two main fast and easy support in cases of
short-haul trips replacing cars but drivers of this development are theft and broken vehicles.
even more so instead of public the increasing trend towards
transportation. The latter is mainly urbanization and the lasting trend In the B2B sector, not owning
driven by the COVID-19 pandemic to consume services rather than vehicle fleets is already the
but will remain on a high level in owning things. What today is the standard and will be extended
the future. Since cars will be more standard in media consumption to micromobility vehicle types.
and more pushed out of cities due (e.g. Spotify, Netflix) is also Interestingly, the last-mile food
to regulation and zeitgeist, the key increasingly gaining momentum in delivery companies belonging to
challenge is to seamlessly combine urban mobility. For several years the main winners of COVID-19
(and eventually merge) the public now, mobility sharing providers pandemic sector are currently
transportation system with got more and more traction. electrifying their micromobility
micromobility solutions provided Although they were hit hard during fleets. This often goes hand in
by 3rd parties. Cities such as the COVID-19 pandemic they hand with the change to a Vehicle-
Paris already conducted public will recover quickly. Indicators as-a-Service business model.
tenders for shared micromobility are the fast increase of shared
operators with the goal to provide mobility trips between the two
a holistic and well-orchestrated lockdowns during this summer
mobility offering for the citizens. as well the investors’ trust by
Several recent multi-million Euro spending hundreds of millions
investments into micromobility of Euros on the shared mobility
operators confirm that this is the operators during the pandemic.
way to go.
Siddhant
Gupta
Head of Future Grid – Asia
1. Routed vehicles like public transport municipal buses and short-
distance trucking will lead the transition to electric and subsequently to
autonomous. Why:
• Optimized predictability of traffic conditions and preestablished
routes will facilitate better planning and adoption of EV
• Lower fuel and maintenance cost playing a bigger role to reduced
TCO
• Business model innovation such as Battery as a Service and further
reductions in battery costs will make the cost to operator at par of
Maya
cities, some of the 75% of public diesel/petrol vehicle sooner
space, otherwise taken by parked
vehicles and lanes, will maintain 2.Battery technology and business model (1st and 2nd life) will drive
Ben Dror
its revised use as pedestrianized, charging infra deployment
recreational or passenger or • Extending life of battery beyond the 7-10 years within the vehicle in
goods loading spaces, introduced 2nd life battery applications will bring down EV costs
Lead, Future Mobility due to the pandemic. • 2nd life battery to then play a key role to overcome “localized grid
Platform at World Economic challenges” for mass deployment of charging infrastructure
The technological sophistication
Forum & Global New
of mobility hubs will intensify 3. AI in Digital solutions around depot management and energy
Mobility Coalition to accommodate an increasing management will have the highest growth rate – early movers with
number of users who seek a high- significant advantage
The coupling of pandemic The 15-Minute City, coined by quality user experience as well as
recovery and electrification efforts Professor Carlos Moreno and • Challenges around utilization of infra, localized grid constraints, load
a greater variety of reliable and
in cities will intensify, with a focus recently made mainstream by shifting and demand for ‘green charging’ to be solved through AI
safe mobility options. Assisted
on high-mileage vehicles like Paris’ Mayor Anne Hidalgo, will models
by private sector innovators,
ride-hailing, taxies and delivery be adapted by at least a handful cities will double down their • Increased uptake of digital solutions to counter behavioural
vehicles. By harnessing the power of cities, tying recovery with local investment to create a smooth challenges around EV charging discipline (dedicated lots)
of these fleets, every dollar spent business growth, neighbourhood and enjoyable transition between • Increased demand for “green charging” to drive energy management
on the conversion of internal revival, and zero emission mobility. transport modes and dynamic to increase input % for renewables
combustion engines to zero By meeting the educational, mobility services – two trends that
tailpipe emission vehicles will work, shopping, recreational accelerated during the pandemic. 4. Smart Autonomous Charging Depots -> With the introduction of
result in four times the carbon and cultural needs of a growing autonomous electric vehicles, charging depots will become smart and
reduction compared with the population with increased human- autonomous, particularly for heavy duty vehicle fleets.
average car. Backed by a joint powered mobility options for
• Auto-park features to be deployed soon in heavier EVs, and coupled
effort by T&E, Uber, Renault short distances complemented
with opportunity charging to enable autonomous charging.
Nissan, ABB, BP, Polis Network, by efficient mobility as a service
GNMC and others, several cities modes (transit, shared rides) for • Using artificial intelligence backed algorithms, depots, utilizing
are poised to lead the charge: longer distances, cities and streets pantograph-like technology, will arrange and prioritize the vehicles to
Amsterdam, Lisbon, London, will be healthier and more resilient ensure readiness for their daily routing.
Madrid, Paris, Berlin and Brussels. to shocks going forward. In these
www.siemens.com.sg/emobility
Lukas
In order to offer the level of natives, but use data and digital
comfort that is comparable with a tools to customize the offering and
car, public transport will need to make public transport inclusive
Neckermann
use real time data to be able to and accessible for everyone.
adjust its supply to a demand, to
make needed changes in real-time, We should allow each user to
Managing Director, schedule, available routes and design trips reflecting their
number of trains available. personal preferences, special
Neckermann Strategic Advisors
needs or limitations. Thanks to
Systematic collection, analysis and digitalization we will be able to
Karolina
usage of data will decide if public provide each user with information
After the great reset of 2020, Integration and Disintegration: use of urban space, implementing transport will become modality that is truly helpful (available
mobility has gained new meaning Companies throughout our new facilities (lanes and parking) of choice in the future and will escalators, trains with easy
Korth
for 2021 and beyond. It will industry will re-evaluate their for bicycles, scooters, and be able to providing users with access) in the format that is the
emerge as an industry in its own strengths and weaknesses within even autonomous delivery and comfort and safety that they need. most convenient (e.g. spoken or
right, and impact even more facets the mobility value-chain, as well transport. visualized).
of our day-to-day lives. Some as their key contributions to the Public transport and smart cities
thoughts: industry. It’s now clear that not We look forward to the Chief Digital Officer, should not only target digital
one company – however large interactions with our clients, Head of Strategy at
Electrification is a done deal: – can “own” the entire mobility partners, and many friends Siemens Mobility, Spain
Driven by vastly increased vehicle space, as some have tried to do across the industry – have a great,
choice, some gentle governmental in the last half decade. In 2021, healthy, and successful 2021
nudging, sufficient infrastructure, many more will spin-off or carve-
and most importantly, better out entities that don’t yet have
vehicle economics, the EV is a clear view toward profitability
now approaching mainstream (just as Uber has done with its
acceptance. 2021 will see fleets autonomous, micromobility,
especially shift toward electrified and air transport operations,
and fully-electric vehicles and some manufacturers have
(which we have previously done with their mobility services
called the “Corporate Mobility units). This is leading to more
Breakthrough”). From an industry consolidation and integration,
point-of-view, we can finally tick achieving better unit economics
that box. and building stronger, more
specialised companies.
Mobility Value Chain:
As an industry, mobility in all its Bricks and Mobility:
facets will finally come into its Finally, a yet even wider ecosystem
own. We see the emergence of of industries and facets of our
a new value-chain for mobility lives will be impacted by mobility.
– one that is not derivative of After the rapid rise of Covid-
automotive or public transport. induced bicycle and pedestrian
Tech suppliers (especially in infrastructure, as well as the
and around autonomous and emerging discussion on the
connectivity), manufacturers, “15-minute city”, Neckermann
systems & data, fleet management, Strategic Advisors expects
mobility operators and mobility real-estate developers and
aggregators together represent a infrastructure investors to be
Trillion Dollar opportunity within a next frontier for the Mobility
this decade, and will be recognised Revolution. In 2021, many more
as such, with a continuation of local governments and real-estate
exciting funding-rounds and IPOs. developers will re-evaluate their
e-scooter boom. Pandemic will not shared. So, all you need Prediction 1: Further consolidation in the AV industry
ease in 2021, people will go back is to simply charge them but
to their cars. But now we know, in micromobility, there are no There will be continued consolidation in the AV industry as start-ups and
the curtain is down. So, it will not definition of roads, rules are OEMs alike focus on near term targets such as electrification and the move
be back to old days. I big portion recently appearing, people are towards a software defined vehicle in a bid to lower costs, hit sustainability
of those short distance rides we not used to them, they are all so targets and simplify vehicle complexity.
took with a ton of metal will never light and open to vandalism and
come back. Remember 80% of all they are almost always shared Prediction 2: The movement towards open cities during
car rides are shorter than 15km in vehicles. So, you need more than the Covid-19 will continue.
distance. charging. That is why you need a
Çağrı
universal solution for all modes The genie is now out of the bottle with a realisation that long commutes
Russell
With all these new micromobility of micromobility in one unified and heavy traffic do not have to be a necessity of daily working life. This will
vehicles in our cities, we need way; should help cities, 3rd party transform our cities and its transportation systems but this is likely to have
Selçuklu
to consider the definition of businesses, land owners, sharing negative effects in the near term as operators struggle to adjust capacity to
Vickers
infrastructure. For comparison, operators to integrate in a smart & the changing demand.
EVs need charging stations. connected way, keep vehicles safe
Because they already have the and ordered, make the operations Prediction 3: Two steps forward and one step back for EVs
Co-founder & CEO roads, the rules and people more user friendly AND charge CEO and Co-Founder
are used to them. They are autonomously. That is why you at Future Mobility This year will see many more electric options from mainstream car
Sharing economy has never been big vehicles, we only started to will see more of DUCKT (follow manufacturers, but with the likely increased EV volume on our roadways,
Campus Ireland
challenged this much. The world put electric in them instead of on Linkedin) solutions across the the charging infrastructure will struggle to keep up. This chicken and egg will
with corona is a different place but gas. They are sadly and mostly globe starting 2021. continue this year.
mobility is the same. We still need
futuremobilityireland.ie
to go from point A to B. Maybe
we cannot share the space, but
we can share the services. This 2. While micro-mobility is part will increasingly be under pressure
is why, already growing demand of the perceived solution in for more directive strategies to
on Micromobility, will grow even many cities, they want to “build deliver sustainable streets.
more strongly for the coming back better” and so will want
years in urban environment. But a controlled, data-led, insight 4. Autonomous vehicles for
now, there is more pressure on delivering set of shared micro- personal use/ownership in a
efficiency and economic aspects. mobility solutions that deal with European context will be seen as
Companies will focus on these the range of challenges that they a diversion from the core needs
topics on 2021. Efficient, green are now facing post Covid19. of delivering on sustainable cities.
and user-friendly approaches will While AV will likely have shorter
Thibaud
thrive. 3. The EU Green deal and term roles in freight and even bus/
aftermath of Covid19 put pressure tram operations, the widespread
That is one of the reasons why clearly on the automotive industry use in personal cars, will
Febvre
there is a bike boom but more to deliver on clean vehicles increasingly be seen as a diversion
specifically an E-bike boom. Since and prevent replacing petrol/ from the above goals of delivering
the pandemic started, now, some diesel congestion with EV on on a sustainable city that supports
E-bike companies are the highest road congestion. The industry is the above issues of sustainable
valued and top selling companies. Co-Founder & COO now - finally - rolling out lots of micro and macro-mobility.
The E-bike prices went down 4-fold alternative EV’s but the change
in one year because of market 1. in the aftermath of Covid-19, will be to adopt models of car 5. In 2021 we will see at least
economics, cities are defining cities will face a slow rebuild ownership and use that again one large-scale deployment of
more and more space for these of demand for classic public “build back better” and cleaner electric personal delivery devices
vehicles. Countries are delivering transport as well as return and change cities in a way that (“sidewalk robots”), and a three-
generous incentives for people to of discretionary travel which supports a healthier, more wheeled scooter as operators
buy these vehicles. This has been supports much public transport sustainable - “Healthy Streets” / “15 continue to tweak the form types.
eye opening for people towards use. This will create financial minute” city way. If this is seen as
micromobility, right on top of the pressures re revenue as well not being delivered, governments
as pressure to offer alternative
means on travelenergized and re-envisioned into structure – a balancing act of
what’s called the “Fifteen-minute desires for services and “essential”
city” – the urban planner’s century- needs, from buying groceries
old manifesto of sustainable to walking in the park. The
development. This pivot requires resulting activity patterns could
flexible land use and zoning codes revolutionize the ways we use, (re)
to match services with fluxing design, and experience city streets
residents’ needs, a keen eye on and public spaces.
equity-driven decisions, and street
Meredith
designs that enable mobility by
Arianne
two feet or two wheels. (The
CAN STAYING CLOSE TO HOME more bicycle-like, the safer, more
Glaser
REVOLUTIONIZETHE (NEAR) efficient, time competitive, and
Walker
FUTURE OF URBAN MOBILITY? more fun.)
Almost overnight, cities faced an Prediction #2:
Free the curb from cars Researcher at the
unprecedented problem resulting
from COVID-19 prevention City officials and citizens are Urban Cycling Institute Chief Evangelist for
measures: keeping services, local reimagininghow street- and University of Amsterdam Alexa Auto at Amazon
economies, and essential workers curb-space could and should be
more fairly distributed and used. Artificial intelligence is going to
moving with reduced public
In place of car parking – which help improve voice assistants
transit, ride share, and taxi. What
is overabundant, undercharged, to make the interaction even
solutions did cities overwhelmingly
and disproportionately benefits more natural and conversational.
turn to? 600 cities (and counting)
privileged, white urbanites Our voice assistants will be able
are deploying low-tech, low-cost
– curb-side pick-up, street- to maintain context and have
solutions to repurpose existing
eateries, outdoor dining, sidewalk a memory that helps us in our
streets and car parking spaces
extensions, slow streets, and everyday lives – the voice interface
to ensure safe access to daily
bike lanes will continue to gain in the vehicle will get good enough
essential services. From Bogota
momentum. Echoing well-known that it replaces our dependency on
to London, New York to Oakland,
facts, like most urban car trips are the smartphone.
cities have implemented well-
worn tactics of street experiments under 4 miles and the #1 global Meredith Glaser is a researcher
cause of death for kids and young Vehicles of the future will be
to help people move and get a at the Urban Cycling Institute at
adults is car crashes, calls have designed with this in mind. While
breath of fresh air.This window the University of Amsterdam,
been made for street reform. many vehicles today are doing a
of opportunity, potentially worth The Netherlands. Her research
Reducing urban space for cars is better job with microphones and
billions in health benefits, opens focuses on policy innovation,
now more prescient than ever. noise elimination, this will be an
at least three predictions for the knowledge transfer,and capacity
integral part of vehicle design in
coming year(s): building for the transport planning
Prediction #3: the future.
field. Her work has been featured
Prediction #1: Potential to revolutionize in a number of peer-reviewed
urban activity Seamlessness of the voice
Renaissance of journals and media sources.
If local amenities and services are assistant experience will be even
neighborhood centers She is also one of the world’s
increasingly within reach (#1) and more important in the future
Living hyper-locally disrupts most experienced educators
“easy” to get to on two feet or two – being able to interact with
many intertwining aspects of for professionals seeking to
wheels (#2), then mobility demand your voice assistant of choice in
urban space, mobility, and activity learn Dutch transport planning
would decrease and form around multiple areas of our lives. To
patterns. The shift disrupts the policies and practices. Meredith
new patterns of local activity. assist with this, interoperability
practice ofcommuting to a central holds master’s degrees in public
Human-scale urban mobility between voice assistants will be
business district and destination health and urban planning from
options eventually out-compete critical, allowing people to get help
shopping (think Champs Elysée). University of California, Berkeley.
the car and staying close to home from their preferred general voice
This means neighborhood
confronts us with a new choice assistant to interact with specialist
commercial nodes are being re-
voice assistants.2. MaaS Business Model(s): 4. MaaS & Real Estate: Micromobilty Market see continued growth in 2021. in cycling and walking. While
Consolidation in Europe Over the past few years, the these policies have always been
In most of these medium cities We start talking about Mobility autonomous vehicle market went supported by urban planners
you will find only one company Hub around major Bus/Tram/ Given the speed and timing of through a bit of a hype cycle, and designers to reduce the
per mobility service (one eBike Train stations, allowing people to COVID, there has been a rapid peaking in early 2018. Since impact of automobiles, COVID has
company, one Carsharing brand park their car, bike, scooter before transformation in the European that point, many OEMs, supplies, served as the inflection point in
etc.) that are manage by the getting in the Public Transport micromobility market. According startups, and investors have been which to enable cities to pursue
city itself. So, for me, in these or to use a shared mobility when to recent news stories and press scratching their heads wondering more long term sustainability
cities, the MaaS will become getting out the PT. For me, I can releases, many of the largest what will happen next. With the initiatives and active transportation
the extension of the Public see also micro-mobility-hub in operators have been in active advent of COVID, social distancing, infrastructure investments. While
Aurélien
Transport to improve the mobility private buildings, using the unused late stage fund raises to shore up and public health measures, there has been limited pushback
of the residents and thus the parking and storage places to their consumer offers, expand new use cases and opportunities from certain individual and auto
first business model deployed allow people from outside to park, their fleets, and increase their rapidly opened up over the course lobby groups (London and Berlin)
Cottet
will be B2G2C (Business to why not recharging their eV/eBike/ geographic service areas. Namely, of 2020. The market for shared towards active transportation
Government to Citizens) and it will eScooter, to manage the last & Tier, Voi, and Bolt have been the and commercial autonomous measures, 2021 will see continued
be subsidized. Then you will have first mile(s) for deliveries. Here the standout micromobiity operators vehicles has now eclipsed that for digital and physical infrastructure
private companies that will provide MaaS will be the tool to manage that have not only weathered personal autonomous vehicles, investments to support long term
MaaS Project Leader at a B2B2EE (Business to Business to the grid of all these micro-mobility- the COVID financial storm, but thus the pivot towards robotaxis urban sustainable shifts away from
Transdev & Member of Employees/Employers). hub have been able to attract massive and driverless trucks. This will the private automobile.
the Board of Directors at equity capital investment, scale continue with rapid acceleration in
Scott
The MaaS Alliance 3. MaaS & 5. MaaS & Traffic-lights: their operations, and aggressively investment, pilots, and commercial
Employee/Employers: hire across all business units. partnerships in the coming year.
“5 MAAS PREDICTIONS: Imagine that all the trip-planners Lime is the one US-based operator In addition, with widespread stay
Shepard
The employers will be the key in on a territory (used by private car in Europe that has been able to at home orders, quarantines, and
1. MaaS in the next 3 years: the success of MaaS, especially in owners, by delivery drivers or by sustain their offer in Europe, albeit curfews, the market for outdoor
medium cities. MaaS Travelers) are all connected with investment by Uber and the dining and home food deliveries
One of the rare benefic effects of More than 90% the mobility is to the same data-lack. This should caveat that 66% of their growth has exploded. Therefore, we will
the Covid-19 is the acceleration done by the daily local mobility, represent the information of has occurred outside of their see interesting value propositions CMO @ Iomob
in the digitalization of many Public mainly by commuters. 70% of the trips planned. With home US market. This has left the from AI and mobility tech startups
Transport Operations (Realtime Without the employers, the MaaS such tool the territory will be small to middle level micromobility continue into 2021, related to
traveler information, M-Ticketing, won’t take off. Many employers able to manage its traffic lights operators in a bit of a cash crunch, human assisted and autonomous
capacity information etc..). The work on the wellbeing of their dynamically in Realtime especially due to 1.) lack of consumer brand deliveries for parcels, packages,
backbone of the MaaS is the employees at work, but the life when unexpected incidents occur. recognition, 2.) lack of geographic and even food to homes and
Mass Transport. If this one is not of an employee starts when she coverage, and 3.) simply lacking businesses.
digitalized, you cannot deploy a or he closes the door of her/his the scale required to success in
MaaS. This digital acceleration home to go to work. We start European cities that offer a transit 15 Minute Cities and Active
is opening the door to test and seeing big corporate proposing rich and multi-modal environment. Transportation
learn MaaS initiatives/projects in mobility budget to be spend Therefore, we will see increased
many cities. The more data we in Public Transport or Shared mergers and acquisitions of Finally, the most important trend
will have on MaaS from different Mobility. The MaaS will be the these operators and / or their and prediction for the year
locations, the more we will be able answer for the Human Resources divestment in the European ahead in 2021 is the widespread
to find the right business models to harmonize the mobility policies market in the coming months adoption by governments of the
for a financial sustainable MaaS decided by the company for a ahead. policies related to ‘15 Minutes
operation(s) better and more sustainable Cities”. What started initially in
commute of its employees Robotaxis and Autonomous Paris, and coupled with a COVID-
Deliveries related expansion of the urban
bike network to maintain social
With the recent acquisition distancing and public health
of Moovit by Intel, along with has taken the world by storm.
partnerships announced by Almost every major city now has
Lyft, the Zoox driverless shuttle an open street, pop up bike lane,
by Amazon, and a high level of widened pedestrian path, outdoor
activity already in China, we will dining, and massive increaseFarran – The millimetre
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Electronomous 2020
The millimetre wave exhibitor
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www.farran.comFREDRIKA
ANTHONY GERMANCHEV
KLARÉN Advanced Technologies Lab at the Australian Road Research Board
Sustainability at Polestar
What is the project that most excites you in your space?
The project I am most excited about is working our partners who world leaders in machine vision, AI and the
What is the project that most
excites you in your space? development of HD digital maps. I am excited to apply these technologies to improve safety and solve our transport
I’m really exited about Polestar Precept. It’s our problems.
commitment car and now we’ve decided to put it
into production. It’s a great achievement and the What is the greatest challenge you see in Mobility/Smart Cities in the next 5 years?
start of a very meaningful journey for us. The greatest challenge in mobility is the increase in congestion in and around our cities.
Which project do you think is the most audacious moonshot in the industry that you hope
BARRY
What is the greatest challenge you see in
Mobility/Smart Cities in the next 5 years? succeeds?
A project that was previously considered an audacious moonshot was to eliminate congestion, but COVID19 has
LUNN
Walking the talk and making a profound decline in
the emissions connected to the production and use given us the opportunity to re-imagine the way we work and in the process reduce congestion in our major cities.
of cars. By 2025 we will have to be well on our way CEO of Provizio
towards climate neutrality. What are you most concerned about in Mobility/Smart Cities?
What is the project that most excites you The increasing cost of congestion and reduction in liveability and liveable spaces in our cities still remains a concern.
Which project do you think is the most in your space?
audacious moonshot in the industry The application of long range sensors with AI on- Which other person/company in the space of Mobility/SmartCities do you admire?
that you hope succeeds? the-edge to prevent collisions on our roads. Mobileye continue to lead the way towards automated driving and EuroRAP (iRAP) are making significant
I have one in mind, but I can’t talk about it right now improvements in road safety through the application of technologies and the star rating of roads.
:) What is the greatest challenge you see in
Mobility/Smart Cities in the next 5 years?
What are you most concerned about Moving from a car centric view of the world to
in Mobility/Smart Cities? a mobility as a service future presents a huge
The lack of transparency and open source solutions challenge with a lot of vested interests pulling in the
in the car industry today. If we are to succeed we opposite direction. But what an opportunity.
need to be able to talk openly and honestly about
our shared challenges and cooperate more. Which project do you think is the most DOMINIC PAPA
audacious moonshot in the industry Vice President, Smart State Initiative Arizona
Which other person/company in the that you hope succeeds? Commerce Authority
space of Mobility/SmartCities do you The end of private vehicle ownership would
admire? change everything and I hope it happens sooner What is the project that most excites you in your space?
All of the consumers making the switch from ICE to rather than later. Autonomous vehicles, flying cars Smart State Governance Framework
EV, these are still early adapters who aren’t afraid and other moonshot efforts all depend on this
to learn something new in order for change to transition. What is the greatest challenge you see in
happen. Mobility/Smart Cities in the next 5 years?
What are you most concerned about The ability for “smart regulation” to incentivize and keep up with the
in Mobility/Smart Cities? technological pace of mobility solutions.
Safety. We as an industry have a safety record that
should embarrass us all and I hope society, in a Which project do you think is the most audacious moonshot in
post Covid environment, decides enough is enough the industry that you hope succeeds?
and pursues a safer, cleaner future. Michigan’s Connected Corridor with Sidewalk Infrastructure Partners
Which other person/company in the What are you most concerned about in Mobility/Smart Cities?
space of Mobility/SmartCities do you Silos across different levels of government (federal/state/city)
admire?
Bryan Salesky and the Argo project have impressed Which other person/company in the space of
me to date. Bryan appears to have a grounded Mobility/SmartCities do you admire?
approach to autonomous mobility and uses the Trevor Pawl - Chief Mobility Officer, Michigan
word safety as much as he uses the word robotic.
Quietly, slowly and safely will win the autonomy race
which has been dominated by empty rhetoric to
date.You can also read
