Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany - WG 2 - Battery Technology
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Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany WG 2 – Battery Technology
Publication of the National Platform for Electric Mobility (NPE)’s WG 2 – Battery Technology and SWG 2.2 – Cell and Battery Production
Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
2
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 4
1 Market and competition 8
1.1 Current competitive situation 9
1.2 Prognosis for sales and production of electric vehicles (BEVs/PHEVs) 10
2 Cell performance and suppliers 15
2.1 Customer expectations regarding the performance and
costs of traction battery cells 16
2.2 Requirements for a battery cell manufacturer producing in
Germany and Europe 16
3 Development of cell and production technology 18
3.1 Developing battery technology further 19
3.2 Production technology 21
3.3 Research and development projects 24
4 Germany as a production location –
a cross-country-comparison 25
4.1 Germany as a production location 26
4.2 Lessons Learned – Experiences for the establishment of a cell
production in Germany 28
5 Risks in the value chain of raw materials required for
lithium-ion battery cells 29
5.1 Dependency on raw materials 30
5.2 Implications for a new manufacturer’s sourcing strategy and for the
securing of resources 31
6 Exemplary establishment of a cell production 33
6.1 Timeline and milestones 34
6.2 Comparison of manufacturing costs for battery cells 37Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
3
7 Exemplary business planning and realisation strategy 40
7.1 Business planning and description of possible scenarios 41
7.2 Scaling of production capacities 45
7.3 Potential market risks and market potentials 46
8 Employment effects 48
9 Organisation of WG 2 and SWG 2.2 50
10 Closing remarks 52
11 Glossary 54
12 Bibliography 57Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
4
Executive SummaryRoadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Executive Summary 5
Assignment
In 2015, the steering group of the NPE commissioned Working Group 2 – Battery
Technology (WG 2) to develop a roadmap for a long-term strategy for integrated cell and
battery production in Germany. Following validation and basic technological decisions,
this strategy for value creation and employment is to be jointly continued.
The roadmap was to be elaborated by the newly-appointed NPE Sub-Working Group
(SWG) 2.2 – Cell and Battery Production in cooperation with partners from academia,
industry, the ministries (Advisory Board) and with the support of the consulting firm
Roland Berger. The central focus was the battery cell including cell technology, produc-
tion and production technology.
Executive Summary
The technology of the battery as a whole and thus also of the traction battery cell is a key
element for individual electric mobility. The traction battery presently constitutes one of
the most important components of electric vehicles, covering up to 30–40 % of their
added value. The traction battery cell, in turn, is responsible for a crucial 60–70 % of the
battery pack’s added value. It is therefore of great importance to maintain the entire
value chain at the German location.
Traction battery modules and systems are already successfully developed and manufac-
tured in Germany today. In the last few years, targeted research and development efforts
in the field of traction battery cells have yielded considerable progress – particularly in
terms of technology and performance. However, since the end of 2015, Germany can no
longer boast a factory for traction battery cells producing significant quantities.
At present, there are overcapacities in battery cell production (battery cell generation 2),
a field clearly dominated by Japanese and Korean manufacturers. Expanding the
production of the current traction battery cell generation is, from today’s point of view,
not an economically viable option. Investments in the production of this battery cell
generation, now firmly established on the market, therefore do not seem to make much
sense. The OEMs are concentrating on further developing and expanding the production
of battery packs.
Without the new entry of a further supplier in Europe, the Asian battery cell manufactur-
ers will continue to dominate the market in the subsequent technology generation. At
present, competition is thriving between the battery cell manufacturers; therefore, there
is no dependency on individual suppliers. However, a growing specialisation of traction
battery cells could eventually result in a dependency on Asian manufacturers, even
though the respective companies are likely to expand their production to Europe in the
next few years. The present reticence regarding the consideration of systemic relevance
will not hold forth in future.
Growing market success will increase the number of electric vehicles, resulting in a surge
in the demand for traction battery cells that will make a further expansion of global cell
production necessary.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
6 Executive Summary
On this basis, a cell factory could be operated sustainably in Germany. We recommend an
initial launch of production in 2021, to be followed by the incremental establishment of
a cell factory of approximately 13 GWh/a (about 325,000 BEV/a) until 2025. This market
entry is to be realised with the next battery cell generation (3a or subsequent).
This requires an investment of around 1.3 billion Euros. According to an initial estimate, a
break-even point (EBIT) can be achieved in 2025; an amortisation is possible as of 2030.
Under the assumptions of the business plan, a minimum utilisation of 80 % is necessary for
a sustainably profitable cell production. Also, the positive operating cash flow must be
reinvested in new battery cell and production technologies.
During the ramp-up phase, the produced traction battery cells might be considered for
use in stationary storage systems.
Assuming a cell production of approximately 13 GWh/a, an employment effect of around
1.050–1.300 employees can be expected in the factory (production, R&D, sales, etc.). In
addition, up to 3.100 jobs could be generated in the vicinity. This, however, largely
dependends on the structural strength of the location.
We should begin to set the course for implementation in 2016: Not only are the Asian
battery cell manufacturers already expanding to Europe, they are also strengthening their
position by vertically integrating module and battery pack production schemes and cell
materials.
The establishment of a battery cell production in Germany offers the chance to closely
link the competences of the research facilities and companies (e. g. material manufactur-
ers, machine and plant engineering) located here. Their geographical proximity will allow
for the fullest possible coverage of the battery value chain. There is also the chance to
expand the German systems expertise in the field of batteries and to foster the respective
innovative capabilities.
The Federal Government can support the entrepreneurial decision-making process that is
to balance the chances and risks of establishing a battery cell production in Germany and
will be launched as of 2017. Further market observation is required in order to adjust
political and economic targets if necessary.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Executive Summary 7
Recommendations for action
In order to secure the know-how and ensure the attractiveness of Germany as a
production location, we recommend that the research and development of future
generation cell and battery technology and -production is continued with assiduity. This
includes promoting the training of experts in cell chemistry and production technology.
The 28 project plans (around 220–230 million Euros) which the NPE SWG 2.2 and the
Scientific Committee identified during the roadmap process will be submitted to the
ministries and project managers for examination and subsequent implementation.
Due to existing overcapacities, investments in the production of the current battery cell
generation (generation 2) are not recommended from today’s point of view. Rather, a
continual close monitoring of the market situation with regard to the market ramp-up
and of the investment- and location decisions of established manufacturers is indicated.
Should a noticeable change occur in the market situation (for instance, due to the
establishment of “copy-paste” factories), politics and industry must jointly examine the
next steps, and, if necessary, readjust the strategy.
It is up to the respective companies to assess specific business models for the incremen-
tal establishment of a cell factory of approximately 13 GWh/a and a battery cell
generation 3a and to validate them in a cost calculation. The possibility of government
funding must be explored and considered in the decision-making process.
If the green light is given for the establishment of a cell production in Germany, the
opportunities and risks described in the roadmap (e. g. location, capital, technology,
customer acceptance) are to be considered along with aspects of sustainability.
A possible monitoring of the Federal Government’s relevant actions should be effected
by the NPE-SWG 2.2. To this end, the results of the roadmap for integrated cell and
battery production need to be followed up without delay, a process to be carried out in
partnership with the automotive and automotive supplier industry, the plant and
mechanical engineering sector, the chemical industry, consortia and investors. The
overall organisation of the NPE SWG 2.2 (including academia, industry, politics and
business consultancy) has proved its worth and should be maintained.
It is recommended to introduce a permanent monitoring of the supply relationships for
the critical raw materials natural graphit, cobalt and lithium. In order so secure the
supply in the long run (including possible investment projects), the responsible
ministries, i.e. the Federal Government, must provide close political support.
It is suggested that an industry meeting be convened under the direction of the Federal
Government to foster an entrepreneurial decision (as of 2017).Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
8 Market and competition
1
Market and
competitionRoadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Market and competition 9
1.1 Current competitive situation
The competitive situation in the market for traction battery cells for automotive
traction applications is currently marked by the dominance of Asian manufacturers.
Currently, a relevant part of the production locations for the large format cells
dominating in the field of automotive traction applications are situated in Japan (26 %),
Korea (24 %), China (22 %) and the USA (22 %) (cf. Figure 1). (Anderman, 2013)
Hitherto, the situation was marked by global overcapacities in cell production, with a Dominance of Asian
clear dominance of Japanese and Korean battery cell manufacturers (cf. Figure 2). manufacturers in
However, the Chinese demand for electric buses, mostly with LFP (lithium iron phosphate) battery cell production
cells having grown considerably, the capacities are increasingly taken up.
At the same time, established as well as less established manufacturers from China are
announcing a significant increase in their capacities – for instance BYD, CATL, CALB,
Coslight and Lishen. It should, however, be regularly checked whether the announce-
ments have actually been carried out. In the past, the Chinese manufacturers’ focus in the
field of traction battery cells was on LFP cell chemistry. Here, we can currently observe a
change, since these manufacturers are increasingly extending their offers to NCM-based
cell chemistry.
Rising sales figures will make further additional capacities necessary in the future. These
will be created, on specific orders, by the currently active competitors, which are already
investing in the further expansion of their production capacities. Capacities are currently
being expanded above all in China (fulfillment of “local content”-requirements) and
Korea, followed by North America and Europe. Following a demand for module assem-
bling, Korean manufacturers are planning to establish according units in Eastern Europe
(e. g. Poland), which are to be expanded to cell manufacturing facilities in the event of a
market ramp-up.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
10 Market and competition
According to the Since a number of suppliers are in fierce competition on the cell market, the automo-
market demand for tive industry considers it unlikely that the absence of a German/European competitor
cells, further cell will result in Asian manufacturers “dictating the prices”. While no threat is perceived
factories will be from these quarters, there is the possibility that, in the long run, the market may be
established around dominated by only three competitors (Panasonic, Samsung, LG Chem). Such a develop-
the world. ment is clearly not desirable; the aim should rather be that further suppliers enter the
market and stimulate competition. In addition, the German OEMs are planning to
continue to use battery cells or modules to produce battery packs.
Hitherto, there have been global overcapacities in cell production, with a clear
dominance of Japanese and Korean manufacturers.
The growing market demand for cells will determine the establishment of further cell
factories around the world. Currently, Asian manufacturers are building production
capacities for battery modules and -packs in Eastern Europe, with further expansion
expected towards the field of cell production.
1.2 Prognosis for sales and production of electric vehicles
(BEVs / PHEVs)
In order to estimate the market for traction battery cells, the development of the sales
and production figures of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs)
was determined on the basis of current prognoses.
Owing to BEVs and PHEVs, the demand for batteries is expected to rise significantly
after 2020/2021.
The analysis includes the sales regions NAFTA, Europe, China as well as Japan and Korea,
which cover well over 90% of the global market. The development of the sales figures
for electric vehicles strongly depends on regional carbon emission limits and on
government support measures. Therefore, two scenarios were examined – (“conserva-
tive” and “optimistic”).Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Market and competition 11
The conservative scenario is based on the minimum sales rate of electric vehicles
required to meet the regional carbon emission limits and assumes the absence of
government subsidies for the purchase and maintenance of BEVs and PHEVs.
The optimistic scenario, on the other hand, includes government subsidy programmes
for PHEVs and BEVs as well as the fulfillment of regional carbon emission limits. This
results in a cost advantage of electrically powered drive trains compared to conven-
tional ones.
The total amount of cells required for mild and full-hybrid vehicles is significantly lower
than the difference between the conservative and optimistic scenarios. This demand is
therefore not explicitly taken into account in the following considerations.
Figure 3 shows the results of the analysis.
In the conservative scenario, global sales rise to 2.2 million electric vehicles/a in 2020
and to 6.4 million vehicles/a in 2025; the optimistic scenario assumes 3.5 million
(2020) and 17.8 million vehicles (2025) respectively.
Expectations for sales prognoses differ regionally. We can assume that the conservative Significant increase in
scenario is the more likely option for Europe, while in other regions (especially China) electric vehicles in all
the odds are that the optimistic scenario might be realised. regions by 2025
In order to better meet customer expectations with regard to the cruising range, an
increase in battery capacities in both BEVs and PHEVs is to be expected in the coming
years. On the basis of an average cell capacity per vehicle of 40 kWh (BEVs) and 17 kWh
(PHEVs) respectively, a significant demand for cell production capacity is to be expected
from 2020 onwards (cf. Figure 4), even after taking the current overcapacities into
account.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
12 Market and competition
Additional global In the conservative scenario, the global demand increases by approx. 5 GWh/a in 2020
demand for cell and up to 100 GWh/a in 2025. In the optimistic scenario, the additional demand would
factories between exceed 300 GWh/a. Buses and stationary applications generate additional demand.
2019 and 2021 With this demand situation, competitive cell production would also be possible in
Germany.
In the conservative scenario, the sales figures for BEVs and plug-in hybrids are expected
to increase globally to 2.2 million vehicles/a in 2020. This entails an increase in the
demand for cells to about 155 GWh/a (2025) and allows for a new player to enter the
market as of mid 2021.
The business case continues the conservative scenario.
Prognosis for Europe: About 600,000 electric vehicles are produced in
2020/2021
As production volumes In order to estimate the amount of traction battery cells required in Europe, the vehicle
of electric vehicles production in Europe must be assessed on the basis of the worldwide sales figures. For
increase in the EU, this purpose, it is assumed that the PHEVs and BEVs will be produced in the respective
on-site cell production vehicle models’ parent plants. Since vehicle numbers will remain low in the medium
becomes an interes- term, splitting up the production volumes between different plants would require a
ting option. disproportionate amount of additional investments in plants and infrastructure. The
bulk of the electric vehicle production in Europe will therefore be realised by European
manufacturers, while Asian producers, in particular, will continue to import electric
vehicles to Europe from Japan or Korea.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Market and competition 13
The successful implementation of the planned emission targets for 2020/2021 in the
European Union will require an optimisation of the conventional power train as well as
electrified vehicles (PHEVs, BEVs). The latters’ percentage of the European sales volume
varies according to the manufacturer: Whereas the Asian volume producers reach a low
single-digit percentage, the European premium manufacturers manage to cover a high
and European volume manufacturers a medium single-digit range.
Accordingly, the European production of electric vehicles will increase to around
250,000 BEVs/a and 350,000 PHEVs/a by 2020/21 in the conservative scenario, with
Germany covering about 50,000 BEVs/a and 300,000 PHEVs/a (cf. Figure 5).
Based on a (conservative) estimate of the requirement for the production of BEVs and/
or PHEVs, an according cell demand is presumed (cf. Figure 6). It is assumed that the
different PHEV/BEV vehicles of a certain model are manufactured in that model’s parent
plant and that manufacturers with a low diesel share or indeed a high percentage of
SUVs in their fleet will have a correspondingly higher proportion of electrification.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
14 Market and competition
China and USA: Demand driven primarily by customers and/or regional/local
guidelines
The other core markets do not require a broad-scale introduction of electrified vehicles
to comply with emission provisions in the time horizon until 2020. There are, however,
other mechanisms. In China, the central government has issued guidelines for “New
Energy Vehicles”; further activities promoting or calling for electrified vehicles are to
be expected at the regional or local level. In October 2015, the State Council of the
PRC determined that around five million BEVs are to be registered in China by 2020
(German Industry & Commerce Greater China, Beijing, 2015).
As of 2018, the U.S. state of California has introduced the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV)
standard. It specifies the yearly ratio of zero-emission vehicles every manufacturer must
produce and sell. The share of vehicles to meet the ZEV standard is annually increased
until 2025, but is limited to a maximum of 22 %. A further distinction is made according
to the number of vehicles a manufacturer sells in California and with respect to the
extent to which the according regulations apply to a manufacturer (Californian Air
Resources Board, 2014).
Outlook 2025: Electric vehicles are cost competitive in certain fields of
application
By 2025, technology costs (particularly for batteries, but also for battery management
systems or power electronics, etc.) will have further gone down. As a result, electrified
vehicles gain in cost competitiveness compared to conventional vehicles, with the
latters’ technology becoming more expensive in consequence of emission regulations.
The increase in the performance of traction battery cells expected in the next few years
constitutes an essential basis for this development.
A sufficient production volume of electrified vehicles in Germany / Europe until
2020/2021 is a necessary precondition if a new battery cell manufacturer is to enter
the market. This also requires global and long-term competitiveness (both in terms of
technology and costs).Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Market and competition 15
2
Cell performance
and suppliersRoadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
16 Cell performance and suppliers
2.1 Customer expectations regarding the performance and costs of
traction battery cells
The car manufacturers have determined objectives regarding the performance and
cost-effectiveness of traction battery cells at the battery cell and battery packaging
levels in the coming years.
Prognosis for 2025: It Figure 7 provides an overview of the performance and cost parameters vehicle
is expected that from manufacturers expect at the battery cell and battery packacking level. With battery cell
one cell generation to capacity increasing substantially while the according installation space remains
the next, either the unchanged, today’s safety targets represent an increasing challenge. More “intelli-
cruising range will be gence” in the traction battery cell is an essential prerequisite if the same safety
doubled or the costs standards are to be achieved. In this respect, Asian suppliers currently have no
halved. advantage. In addition, parameters such as performance during cold start, durability,
and fast-loading capability must be maintained at a high level. Nevertheless, a doubling
of the range or a halving of the costs is expected over the cell generations by 2025.
2.2 Requirements for a battery cell manufacturer producing in
Germany or Europe
Cell production in Germany can only be successful if it is competitive in the long term.
Long-term competitiveness implies e. g. a supplier’s proficiency in the current and
future cell technologies (with regard to cell chemistry and cell structure) as well as in
the necessary process and production technologies and possible alternatives.
A local cell production In addition to know-how regarding BEV- as well as PHEV cells, their processes and their
must be globally production, a supplier needs to fulfil additional criteria to be selected by the OEMs.
competitive These include:
• The cell concept/design meets the requirements of the vehicle manufacturer.
• The production know-how and concept suggest a high quality standard.
• The supplier’s offer is economically competitive (price).Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Cell performance and suppliers 17
• The company is economically sound.
• The market for lithium-ion cells being basically global, new providers will have to
face global competition – which implies the necessity to rapidly reach a critical size
(cf. chapter 6 ff.).
• Plant expansions for larger production volumes in order to achieve cost-reduction
effects.
Car manufacturers are bound by long-term contracts. For a new battery cell manufac-
turer, the challenge therefore is to obtain competitiveness and gain the necessary entry
into the OEMs’ supplier pool.
Experiences with the production of traction battery cells show that from a commercial
point of view, a market share of at least 5–10% is necessary to achieve competitive
purchase prices for active cell materials. This is also the minimum limit required to
secure a sufficiently large basis for the apportionment of overhead costs, in particular
the expected research and development expenses.
Moreover, in the first years of cell production, the cash flow will probably be negative
(cf. chapters 5 and 6 of the report). A new player will require sufficient capital to bridge
this period of up to ten years until a cumulative positive cash flow is reached. Also,
additional funds may be needed to cover special expenses and necessary further
developments in cell and production technology, and to ensure continuous investments
in the production.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
18 Development of cell and production technology
3
Development of
cell and production
technologyRoadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Development of cell and production technology 19
3.1 Developing battery technology further
Cell technology is expected to evolve further in the next few years (cf. Figure 8).
The majority of the vehicles currently on the roads use a generation 1 or 2a cell Research and develop-
chemistry. These are traction battery cells with cathodes mainly based on lithium iron ment in the fields of
phosphate (LFP), lithium manganese oxide (LMO), lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide cell technology and
(NCA) or lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NCM in the “Euromix cycle” – cell production must
NCM111). The respective anodes are usually made of natural graphite or amorphous be further promoted in
carbon. The various cell manufacturers frequently combine different cathode materials Germany.
(so-called “blends”) in order to achieve OEM-specific features.
Generation 2b, increasingly featuring cathode materials with a higher nickel content The energy density can
and hence a higher energy density, is about to be launched onto the market. The be increased by means
introduction of generation 3, which uses carbon-silicon anodes, is expected to mark a of new materials or
further step forward. Even in the (layer oxide-based) generations 2b and 3a, we can material combinations.
eventually expect a slight increase in the upper cut-off voltage, which will, in turn,
enhance the energy density. Moreover, a doubling of the current range or a halving of
the costs is possible in the medium term, particularly with generation 4 traction battery
cells.
Lithium-sulfur (or other generation 4 conversion materials) may gain in importance
vis-à-vis an optimised lithium-ion technology and enter the market alongside the
lithium-ion technology. This requires satisfactory solutions to the issues of cycle
durability, lifetime and safety requirements in lithium-sulfur technologies. Today’s
findings, however, suggest that while the gravimetric energy density will increase
compared to the further developed lithium-ion technology expected by about 2020,
this is not the case for the volumetric energy density.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
20 Development of cell and production technology
Whether the theoretically proven advantage of a higher energy density at the cell level
can indeed be implemented – particularly into a functional battery at the pack level –
remains to be seen. In consequence, the question whether and when a transition to
“post” lithium-ion technologies (generation 4 traction battery cells with conversion
materials and generation 5 lithium/oxygen) cells will take place cannot be answered.
From today’s perspective it is, however, much more likely that the development will
move towards solid-state systems (generation 4). Interest is therefore currently
focussing on these systems, in which the liquid electrolyte and the separator are
replaced by solid electrolytes, e. g. on a polymer and ceramic basis, while a lithi-
um-metal foil serves as anode. It is assumed that additional cost-, weight- and volume
reductions, in particular at the vehicle battery level, can be achieved – for instance by
the renouncement of cooling systems (Ishiguro, 2014).
However, there are still possibilities of disruptive developments, for post-lithium-ion
batteries as well as in lithium-based battery chemistry. These should not be neglected
by research and development.
These foreseeable advances in the development of cell technologies are a key factor in
meeting the OEMs’ expectations regarding future cell generations.
Cell technology will evolve further in the coming years. A technology transition is to be
expected between 2020 and 2025.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Development of cell and production technology 21
3.2 Production technology
A rapid and economically successful launch of new cell generations requires the About 50 % of the
simultaneous and concurrent development of the respective production technologies in production plants can
the sections of electrode production, cell assembly, formation and testing. This is not remain in use once the
limited to the case of technological leaps such as the transition from generation 3 to 4 or transition from cell
4 to 5, but is also highly significant in the systematic evolution of the lithium-ion generation 3 to 4 has
technology. If we consider a cell generation and the according production technology been effected.
simultaneously in an interactive approach, it becomes apparent that a leap in cell
technology affects the production stages of electrodes and cells to different degrees.
Future development efforts should therefore focus on modular systems allowing for the
replacement or incremental expansion of individual modules without changing the entire
system. Along with flexible production machines and plants, such a modular system
would make it possible to produce new cell generations with only minor modifications to
the machines and systems.
Efficient manufacturing processes
According to current knowledge we must assume that developments in cell technology
affect the modules of the production process to different degrees. In the case of
lithium-ion-optimised systems (starting with generation 3), for instance, the production of
the electrodes becomes increasingly complex with every generation (due to e. g.
multilayer structures, post treatment or the absence of solvents in the process). This
enables a better cell performance and allows for the assembly of a further form of cells,
i.e. prismatic cells. Changing the cell type (round cell, flat cell and prismatic cell) would
also have a significant bearing on the production process.
The different structure of the cell types affects not only the production process but also
the assembly of the cells. Therefore, adequate individual manufacturing resources are
required, especially regarding the cell assembly. This implies that there is only a limited
scope for scale effects across different cell types. Rather, every cell type will engender
investments in new assembly systems. In order to make the greatest possible use of the
lessons learned and of the money invested, it is important that the evolution towards
new cell generations is effected without changing the cell type.
Production technology faces a further challenge, i.e. to enhance the efficiency of the Production technology
production processes for different cell types. Efficiency gains in terms of time, costs and faces the challenge of
quality can especially be achieved in the following areas: enhancing the
efficiency of the
• Solvent-free or water-based production of electrodes for the environmentally-friendly production processes
production of lithium-ion cells. for different cell types.
• Continuous mix- and high-throughput coating and drying procedures for the
electrodes in order to reduce the production costs. The intermittent coatings, crucial
in stacking processes, are of particular relevance.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
22 Development of cell and production technology
• New stacking processes and packaging principles, ensuring the best possible
energy- and power density and durability while reducing the manufacturing costs to a
minimum.
• Efficient wetting and forming strategies in order to curtail the wetting and forming
periods, which account for a large part of a cell’s total manufacturing time
• Determining intermediate product properties to enable the early detection of
production waste.
From a technological point of view, optimised lithium-ion systems (without solid-state
approaches, generation 3) merely require the continuous systematic modification of the
entire plant technology. This does not exclude the necessity to adjust the process
parameters or extend the technology in specific sub-areas of cell production. These
plants should be steadily improved and developed in terms of efficiency and production
quality.
In principle, comparable production plants can also produce conventional lithium-sulfur
battery cells (generation 4); here, the challenge lies in the assembly of the cells with
lithium foils and in the thin-film coating of the lithium-metal to minimise roughness. The
following product developments will significantly influence the changes in production
technologies:
• Electrode production and cell assembly for solid-state concepts of generation 4
lithium-ion batteries
• Electrode production and cell assembly for generation 4 lithium-sulfur batteries
• Production processes for metal-air systems (focus: lithium-oxygen, generation 5).
Here, the German companies have the chance to catch up with Asian manufacturers by
offering “faster or better” solutions. Indeed, the domestic machine and plant engineering
sector is a key factor for the successful development of a large cell production in
Germany and has recently discovered Asia and North America as prosperous new sales
markets for machines for cell production. German companies are internationally
competitive, their combined portfolios covering all process steps of cell production:
mixers, coating and drying, calendering, the complete cell assembly for wound and
stacked cells including forming and ageing as well as the necessary control technology.
When it comes to providing the system as a whole, however, German manufacturers are
not yet fully successful (acatech – German Academy of Science and Engineering, 2015).
A modular plant design It implies a structure consisting of various, interchangeable modules. This modular
is expedient in terms architecture is necessary, since it allows for the integration of process modules without
of profitability and requiring modifications in the overall structure. Such a modularisation involves clearly
future viability. defined mechanical, control and data interfaces.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Development of cell and production technology 23
With a modular structure, some of the experiences gained with optimised lithium-ion Various research
cells (generation 3) also can be applied to generation 4. However, owing to the sol- institutes are develo-
id-state technology, the leap from generation 3 to generation 4 will also imply a leap in ping pilot process
production technology. The new production technology differs significantly from the modules
existing methods, particularly in electrode production (e. g. regarding the production of
the covering layer for the lithium-metal anode). Modular systems likewise offer the
chance to determine whether experiences made with previous cell generations can be
used in the solid-state technology and for which process stages this might be the case.
Implementing the technological transition in the field of battery cell production is
more likely to succeed on the basis of previous experiences with the large-scale
production of generations 3a/b.
Any changes in production technology that might ensue from a transition to the solid-
state technology (generation 4) are expected to become apparent in the market as of
2020.
A leap in production technology is likely to occur once technologies that are currently
still subject of strong research efforts are introduced into the market. This is the case
e. g. for cells with solid-state technology (generation 4) or lithium-oxygen technology
(generation 5).Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
24 Development of cell and production technology
3.3 Research and development projects
Upholding and developing the existing expertise in battery cell and manufacturing
technologies is a major prerequisite for a competitive traction battery cell production.
This requires further investments in research and development. With view to establishing
a close alliance with the scientific institutions, the NPE and acatech convened a Scientific
Committee, which supported the work of SWG 2.2 with expertise on research topics.
Industry and academia develop the research topics together. For this purpose, several
SWG 2.2 workshops were requested to draw up project plans that were subsequently
discussed and voted on. The result of this process are 28 project sketches (about
220–230 million euros), that were clustered around the topics agreed with the minis-
tries.
1. Material- / Process technology (Li-ion Technology)
• Pretreatment and processing of current and future active materials
• Process parameters and measuring technology for the production of large batteries
• Applications in electric vehicles and stationary storage devices
• Second Life
2. Materials for high-performance and high-energy battery systems
• Stability of the electrolyte at higher voltages
• Material systems for HV and HE batteries
• Polymer batteries
• Integration of materials, solid-state approaches
• Protected Li-anodes
3. Future battery systems (basics 2025 – …)
• Metal-sulfur batteries
• Metal-air batteries
• Solid-state approaches
A possible public funding of the projects is subject to the usual tendering and authorisa-
tion procedures. Both the Roadmap and the project sketches will be handed over to the
ministries represented on the Advisory Board of SWG 2.2.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Germany as a production location – a cross-country comparison 25
4
Germany as
a production
location –
a cross-country
comparisonRoadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
26 Germany as a production location – a cross-country comparison
4.1 Germany as a production location
The production An assessment of Germany as a production location for cells must take qualitative as
location Germany well as quantitative factors into account. From the manufacturers’ point of view, a cell
benefits from an production in regional proximity to the vehicle assembly plant makes sense if produc-
ecosystem of users tion reaches a certain minimum of units. This certainly suggests a locational advantage
(OEMs) and battery for Germany, situated at the geographic centre of Europe. The customers’ appraisal of
manufacturers. the qualitative advantages and disadvantages of a cell production in Germany will
cover quantifiable logistics costs and customs effects as well as risk considerations.
Such considerations can include, for instance, interruptions in the production due to
difficulties in the supply chain, longer response times in the event of quality problems
or recalls, or, possibly, the easier communication with the supplier.
A production in Germany can have positive effects for the cooperation with the OEMs,
especially if communication is possible in the same language and without time lag. To
be sure, this is not the decisive point in the choice of a supplier; however, the existence
of an according “ecosystem” of users (OEMs), battery manufacturers, material and
equipment suppliers and research / training institutions can help towards establishing
and maintaining a technology leadership or a leading market position. The proximity to
leading premium OEMs can foster the formation of a globally competitive “research
cluster”. A cell production in Germany could further contribute to rebalancing the
global value chain, currently still unilaterally orientated towards Asia, towards the
European markets.
The establishment of a battery cell production offers chances for Germany’s develop-
ment as a production location. On the basis of a well-developed R&D landscape,
synergy effects can be achieved by integrating locally based companies that are part of
the value chain of the battery. These include, in particular, the material manufacturers
as well as those mechanical and plant engineering companies that currently consider
relocating their activities to Asia. By contributing to preserving Germany’s systems
expertise, a battery cell production can thus play an important role for the country’s
future as an innovation location. In the field of stationary energy storage, moreover,
there are possibilities of expanding the sales markets for the energy transition.
Highly automated manufacturing processes, such as the production of cells, require
highly qualified staff. Germany certainly boasts a high education level and great automo-
tive expertise. The challenge lies more in the availability of qualified battery experts (both
in terms of cell chemistry and production know-how). Both industry and research
consider that there are currently very few such experts in Germany. Experts with specific
experiences or specialised know-how are mainly available in Asia. The lack of production
experience is reflected not least in significantly longer ramp-up phases. A German
production site will therefore require the development of a sufficiently large pool of
experts. There are several ways how the existing cell production research facilities can be
used to establish know-how and extend the training schemes for specialised personnel.
We may also resort to academic teaching in relevant subject areas.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Germany as a production location – a cross-country comparison 27
Notwithstanding these challenges, Germany has significant know-how, e. g. in the field of
mechanical engineering (plants for cell and material production), in the automotive and
supplier industry (both for the manufacture and design of the cells) or in the chemical
industry. As a rule, the OEMs (and some of the suppliers) are already developing and
assembling battery packs for PHEVs and BEVs in Germany and Europe. Moreover,
Germany’s attractiveness as a production location was assessed by comparing it to other
potentially attractive locations.
Alongside the current champions of battery cell production, Japan and South Korea, the
comparison included the USA, France, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary.
As part of the European Union, these countries have built up a significant automotive and
automotive supply industry over the last 20 years. In addition, these potential production
locations are likewise situated at easy distances to relevant vehicle assembly plants and
have good transport connections. Also, Korean suppliers selected Poland and Hungary as
locations for the production of traction batteries and battery packs.
Figure 10 provides an overview of location factors for Germany, Japan and Korea, the
USA, and of alternative potential locations within the European Union.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
28 Germany as a production location – a cross-country comparison
Only under best-case- In a cross-comparison, Germany would, in a best-case scenario, draw level with Korea,
assumptions could Poland and the USA. The main advantage Poland has over Germany lies in its personnel
Germany as a produc- costs, taxes and subsidies; Germany, on the other hand, outstrips Poland in terms of
tion location potenti- logistical performance and research structures. The best-case scenario for Germany
ally compete with assumes East German wage levels and has cell production exempted from the EEG levy.
countries like Korea For comparison purposes, the base case for Germany is also presented, featuring an
and Poland. all-German wage level and no exemption from the EEG levy.
Next to the above-mentioned locational advantages and disadvantages, the development
of a possible business model for battery manufacture in Germany likewise depends on
risks in the supply chain for lithium-ion battery cells.
In an international comparison with locations like Korea, Poland and the USA, Germany
(including the new Länder) can be an attractive production location. This, however,
presupposes that possible assets are brought to bear, e. g. by omitting the EEG levy on
the energy costs. Also, the low wage cost level in the new Länder must be maintained.
4.2 Lessons Learned – Experiences for the establishment of a cell
production in Germany
In order to assess a production site, the existing experiences with cell production need
to be evaluated. Unsuccessful cell productions in Germany teach us that scale effects
require a certain dimension, especially regarding the purchase of materials. Further
experiences can be summarised as follows:
• Developing a technically competitive traction battery cell is challenging but temporally
feasible.
• The support of partners with high process know-how and experts is expedient for the
industrialisation of this traction battery cell.
• At present, all major manufacturers can deliver technically comparable traction
battery cells.
• Competitive cell prices are a key marketing criterion. The material costs and the
depreciation on plants are crucial factors to achieve them. A new player entering the
market should be particularly aware of the fact that his competitors are producing with
plants that are at least partly depreciated. Also, significant scale effects need to be
realised in the material sector by means of the purchase quantities.
• Both plant availability and yield rate must (clearly) lie above 90 % to be competitive.
In terms of manufacturing processes, production should be run around the clock.
An economically sustainable production requires above all that possible cost disadvan-
tages vis-à-vis competitors are removed.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Risks in the value chain of raw materials required for lithium-ion battery cells 29
5
Risks in the
value chain of
raw materials
required for
lithium-ion
battery cellsRoadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
30 Risks in the value chain of raw materials required for lithium-ion battery cells
An analysis of the risks in the value chain for raw materials required for lithium-ion battery
cells (Paskert, Loois, Beyer, Weimer & Specht 2015) was carried out by the German Raw
Materials Alliance Ltd. (Rohstoffallianz). It reveals that even in the conservative baseline
scenario, we will be confronted with, or are already facing, a critical to highly critical
supply or processing situation for the raw materials graphite, cobalt and lithium.
5.1 Dependency on raw materials
High supply risk Germany is highly dependent on the import of a large number of raw materials and
regarding the raw their refined products. This dependency was exacerbated as a consequence of the
materials natural global liberalisation policy the EU has engaged in since 1989. Even in the conservative
graphit, cobalt and scenario, the supply situation for raw materials such as natural graphite, cobalt and
lithium lithium must be considered critical.
Natural graphite supply1 very critical:
In about 90 % of the lithium-ion batteries, graphite is currently used as active material in
the anode . The remaining 10 % are based on amorphous carbon, lithium titanate or
silicon. Hence, graphite dominates the market for anode materials.
Approx. 75 % of the graphite used is natural graphite, 25 % is synthetic graphite. The
latter is created on the basis of coke and pitch – products of the coal and petroleum
industries for which there is no risk of a supply shortage, even in the long term. The
graphitisation process is classified as energy intensive.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Risks in the value chain of raw materials required for lithium-ion battery cells 31
Natural graphite as well as synthetic graphite are currenty the standard anode material
for electric mobility.
In the case of natural graphites, on the other hand, there is a very strong dependency
on China – with regard to mining production as well as in terms of the chemical
treatment necessary to obtain the product “uncoated spherical graphite battery grade”
(SGB). This dependency comes with a high country risk. The processing into xEV-battery
graphite is highly complex, polluting and requires a lot of know-how. The final finishing
takes place almost exclusively in China, Japan and South Korea.
In the medium to long term, a massive market failure of natural graphite-based
xEV-battery graphite is likely to occur. Technologically, the natural graphite in the
battery can be replaced by synthetic graphite. Production capacities for synthetic
graphite are internationally available. The high purity of the synthetic graphite is
ensured in situ by means of the high-temperature graphitisation process.
Cobalt supply very critical:
There is a very strong dependency on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)
and on China in the fields of mining and refining – coming, once again, with high
country risks. Despite positive feasibility studies, several projects in the DRC failed to
reach the implementation phase. The overall battery market is already responsible for
45 % of the market demand for refined cobalt. With a view to the growing demand for
batteries, a supply shortfall is possible even before 2020. In 2020, the demand for
xEV batteries will be facing a slight market deficiency (demand rising to 115 % of the
predicted production in 2020); in 2025, a higher deficiency is likely (cf. Figure 11).
Lithium supply slightly critical with decreasing tendency
Hitherto, lithium mining has been concentrated in the hands of very few countries; this
concentration is, however, currently being mitigated to a certain extent. In either case,
the country risk is innocuous. Market demand for lithium is strongly determined by the
battery production sector. New projects are very capital-intensive. Due to the high
quality requirements, the production of xEV-specific “lithium carbonate equivalent”
(LCE) may suffer from bottlenecks. The technological focus on NCM811 makes
investments in lithium hydroxide production capacities a priority. With a view to the
available capacities, a market deficiency in 2020 appears unlikely (demand covering
about 85 % of the production predicted for 2020). The slight market deficiency that
could arise in the refining industry in 2025 can be avoided by timely investments (cf.
Figure 11).
5.2 Implications for a new manufacurer’s sourcing strategy and for
the securing of resources
The market and risk analysis has shown that considerable investments in processing
capacities and mining are necessary to secure the supply of raw and other production
materials for global cell production. With a view to the high uncertainty pertaining to
the market ramp-up of electric mobility, these investments will only take place when
the right time has come and in line with the market, i.e. when capacities are hedged byRoadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
32 Risks in the value chain of raw materials required for lithium-ion battery cells
price-volume models along the individual stages of value creation. Investments in the
establishment of battery cell production capacities (market overview: cf. Figure 4) will
require predictable costs for raw materials and assured quantitaties. The same applies
to investments in the upstream stages of the value-added process. A sourcing strategy
based solely on current market conditions will not provide the necessary security to
realise the respective investments. The success of a battery production in Germany or
Europe depends not least on the level of supply risk this location is exposed to
compared to other locations.
From the German perspective, it will be important to secure the necessary resources at
an early stage by means of long-term price-volume models. This will ensure all
stakeholders at the different stages of the value-added process security for their
investments. Economically, a key criterion for investments in a sustainable energy
supply will be its value for money. Here, too, models of a long-term energy supply
outside of market structures should be considered at an early stage.
A permanent monitoring of the supply relationships for the critical raw materials
natural graphite, cobalt and lithium should be introduced. In order to secure the supply
with raw materials as well as possible investment projects in the long-term, the close
political support of the Federal Government will be required.
1
Exemplary description of assumptions made:
The baseline value for the demand for xEV for 2015 was assumed with reference to the B3 study; for 2020,
the assumption was based on the NPE’s target value plus the B3 research results and for 2025, on the NPE’s
target value.
Recycling quotas were not taken into account.
The basic capacity for flake production was calculated according to the 2012 capacity/production ratio and
assumed as a constant basis for all subsequent years.
The basic production of flake graphite was assumed to be constant on the 2014 level.
With regard to the additional capacity for flake graphite for projects still in the the project pipeline, a
maximum capacity utilisation of 80 % (= 100 % production) was assumed; the capacity was calculated
accordingly.
With regard to the additional production of flake graphite for projects still in the the project pipeline, only
projects with BFS and DFS status were taken into account until 2020; as of 2021, projects with PFS status are
likewise included.
For the additional production of flake graphite for projects still in the project pipeline, a ramp-up curve
proportionate to the overall capacity was taken into account. The share is 20 % of the maximum capacity in
year 1, 40 % in year 2, 60 % in year 3 and 80 % in year 4. As of year 4, the maximum production equals 80 % of
the capacity.
The share of flake production for the battery market was assumed to be 21 % in 2015, with a growth rate of
9 % p.a.
The calculations for 2012 are based on the assumption that 80 % of the Li-ion batteries were manufactured
with battery graphite; this assumption remains the same for all subsequent years. The ratio of spherical grade
graphite and flake graphite was assumed to be 3.33/1.
As regards coated spherical graphite, it was assumed that 75 % of the spherical graphite is available for
coating.
The market ratio of flake graphite to synthetic graphite was assumed to be 60/40.Roadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
Examplary establishment of a cell production 33
6
Examplary
establishment of
a cell productionRoadmap for an Integrated Cell and Battery Production in Germany
34 Examplary establishment of a cell production
Provided that electric mobility is successfully established in the market, the launch of a
generation 3a (or subsequent) cell production could be economically viable after
2020/2021. The expected market ramp-up creates an additional market potential for
further cell production.
6.1 Timeline and milestones
Possible cell suppliers In order to successfully supply traction battery cells for standard vehicles after 2021,
need to be selected the lead time of individual decisions for the planning and establishment of a cell
about 4 years before production must be taken into account. This regards the OEMs – decisions as to the
the start of produc- choice of suppliers and the delivery of samples – as well as the suppliers.
tion.
The selection of possible cell suppliers takes place about 3.5–4 years before the produc-
tion of the vehicles begins. Incidentally, the SOP (start of production) of the traction
battery cell must be scheduled about six months before the SOP of the vehicle.
Prototype cells from the respective production must be available on time for the cell
supplier assessment and selection. Also, an evaluation according to the above-men-
tioned economic criteria must be possible.
Two scenarios are conceivable for the planning and construction of a cell production
(cf. Figure 12):You can also read
