Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018 - Transformation in light of automotive disruption - Roland Berger
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018 Transformation in light of automotive disruption December 2017
Contents
A B C D E
The The The The The
status future challenge consequence Contacts
Record Upcoming Suppliers' Automotive Roland Berger
volumes and automotive traditional suppliers need and Lazard
profits, but key disruption will business will be to transform Automotive
markets are at fundamentally questioned on their business teams
a tipping point change the multiple levels models
industry
This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation.
It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from and .
© Roland Berger/Lazard Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 2
Executive Summary (1/2)
> The automotive industry has seen a continuation of global growth in 2017 – However, first signs of weakening are visible with
softening of growth in China and Europe and a slight volume decline in the US
> In this still favorable environment, the global supplier industry is expected to increase its revenues by 3% and maintain its profitability
level with an average EBIT margin of ~7% in 2017
– Chinese and NAFTA suppliers are currently more profitable than the global average
– Exterior, chassis and tire suppliers are on track to improve their EBIT margin profile in 2017
– Powertrain suppliers continue to see their margins under pressure due to intensified competition and the cost of innovation
> For 2018, we expect continued growth for the global supplier base, but at a slower pace with stable EBIT margins
> The four automotive megatrends Mobility, Autonomous driving, Digitization and Electrification will continue to change the automotive
industry, causing disturbance in all supplier domains
– New mobility business models are poised to disrupt car ownership, personal mobility and goods logistics: The share of new vehicle
sales for application in the field of new mobility (e.g. ride hailing, car sharing) may range between 10-15% in the US and Europe and up to
35% in China by 2025
– The timeline for level 4/5 autonomous keeps accelerating as necessary economics, regulations and technology fall into place:
Penetration rates for autonomous cars (SAE level 4/5) may reach a level between 5% and 26% in ~15-20 years
– In digitization, artificial intelligence offers almost limitless possibilities while connectivity-enabled technologies are reaching
mainstream application: Within the next 10 years almost all cars in mature markets will have some form of connectivity
– Momentum for electrification is building among OEMs due to increasing regulatory pressure and accelerating technology
advancement: Scenarios for the share of EV cars in 2025 range from 8-20% in the US, 20-32% in Europe and 29-47% in China
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 3
Executive Summary (2/2)
> Suppliers are expected to face five main challenges going forward
– Slowing growth will put pressure on margins and create a need to find new ways to grow
– Accelerated change of technological focus requires further investment into new technologies such as ADAS and electrification, putting
an undue burden without a promise of quick returns
– Emergence of software as key differentiator will make many existing competencies obsolete and create more intensive competition from
new tech players
– Commoditization of hardware parts and disaggregation of systems will exert additional pressure to reduce cost and increase
operational efficiency
– Potential downswing of valuations for commoditized suppliers in the midterm might go along with growing investor pressure to
increase shareholder value
> In order to succeed in the new automotive environment, suppliers will have to transform their existing business models
– Rethink overall strategy in order to either capture new growth opportunities or consolidate the market around the existing portfolio
– Define a long term technology roadmap and strategic positioning in the value chain regarding both product and service offering
– Implement a lower operating cost base and ensure sufficient financing for the upcoming transition at the same time
– Adapt organizational structure and governance model to successfully manage new emerging technologies and competencies
alongside old declining technologies under one roof
– Create a new company mindset and culture to foster innovation which is of paramount importance to compete in the new technology
areas
– Build up new partnerships and leverage this ecosystem to find new ways to innovate
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 4
Contents
A B C D E
The The The The The
status future challenge consequence Contacts
Record Upcoming Suppliers' Automotive Roland Berger
volumes and automotive traditional suppliers need and Lazard
profits, but key disruption will business will be to transform Automotive
markets are at fundamentally questioned on their business teams
a tipping point change the multiple levels models
industry
This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation.
It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from and .
© Roland Berger/Lazard Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 5
The automotive industry recently has been more in the public eye
than ever before
Recent notable automotive headlines
- Automotive News Europe
- The New York Times - Bloomberg News
- The Washington Post
- Reuters
- The New York Times
- Forbes - Reuters
- Wired
- ZDNet - Automotive News Europe
- Autocar
- Associated Press - Automotive News Europe
- Reuters - Reuters - The Wall Street Journal
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 6
The industry had another year of record volumes, however slowing
growth on global level with North America on the decline
Global light vehicle production volume1) by region, 2012-2017e [m units]
NAFTA Europe3) China4)
+1%
CAGR2): 3.7% -3% CAGR2): 4.3% +2% CAGR2): 10.2%
27.4 27.6
23.0 24.0
16.9 18.1 18.8 19.1 18.6 21.3
15.4 16.2 17.0 17.5 17.8 17.4 15.8 16.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e
South America World Japan/Korea
+2%
CAGR2): -10.6% CAGR2): 3.4% CAGR2):-1.9%
+4%
93.1 94.9
81.5 84.7 87.4 88.8
+14%
13.9 13.5 13.7 13.3 12.9 13.5
4.3 4.5 3.8 3.1 2.7 3.1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e
1) Incl. light commercial vehicles; 2) CAGR 2012-2016; 3) Excluding CIS and Turkey; 4) Greater China
Source: IHS, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 7
In 2017, the U.S. and Canada experienced significant declines –
Mexican and Japanese production driving global production growth
Top 20 by country and by OEM group, light vehicle production1)
By production country By OEM group
20 30
Brazil
Production Mexico Winners 25 Geely Winners
∆ 2017e vs. 15 Russia
Iran
20
2016 [%]2) Turkey
10 15
France
10
Italy India Changan BMW Suzuki
5 Japan VW
Czech Republic 5 Tata Honda
R-N
Daimler
Avg. 2.0% Indonesia South Korea PSA
Toyota
Thailand 0 FCA
0 Germany China SAIC-GM-Wuling
Slovakia Great Wall Ford GM
Spain -5 BAIC Mazda
United Kingdom
Hyundai
-5 -10 Dongfeng
Canada United States -15
-10
Losers -20 Losers
-15 -25
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 28 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Total production 2017e [m units]
1) Incl. light commercial vehicles; 2) Year-on-year growth rate
Source: IHS, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 8
2017 was another good year for suppliers with moderate growth and
margins comparable to previous years
Key supplier performance indicators, 2010-2017e (n=~650 suppliers)
Revenue growth EBIT1) margin [%]
Indexed [2010=100]
~147 7.3 ~7.3
138 142 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.2
131 6.8 6.8
124
118
113
100
YoY [%]
29
13
4 5 5 5 3 3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e
1) EBIT after restructuring items
Source: Company information, analyst forecasts, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 9
The overall positive sentiment was also reflected in the supplier
valuation levels that still trade above their long-term average
Evolution of automotive supplier valuations
EV/EBITDA NTM1) > Valuation multiples of publicly listed
11x automotive suppliers are above their
long-term average values, however,
Impacted by the below peak values observed during
9x economic crisis the last two to three years
> High valuation levels are supported
by an abundance of cheap liquidity
7x
on the global stock markets as well
10-y-Ø = 6.2x2) as profitable growth of automotive
10-y-Ø = 5.8x2)
suppliers. More recently, the
5x question around the impact of a
10-y-Ø = 4.4x2)
changing automotive environment
had a muting effect on valuations
3x
> While European and North
American suppliers trade at similar
1x
valuation levels, Japanese
companies continue to trade at a
Nov-12
Oct-16
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-17
discount, reflecting the stagnation in
their home market
Japanese suppliers3) European suppliers4) North American suppliers5)
1) NTM = Next twelve months; 2) Excluding the distorting impact of the economic crisis (Jan-Dec 2009 multiples); 3) Aisin Seiki, Bridgestone, Calsonic Kansei, Denso, Exedy, JTEKT,
Keihin, Koito, Mitsuba, NHK Spring, NSK, Stanley Electric, Showa, Sumitomo Riko, Takata, Tokai Rika, Toyoda Gosei, Toyota Boshoku and TS Tech; 4) American Axle, BorgWarner,
Cummins, Dana, Delphi, Federal-Mogul, Iochpe Maxion, Johnson Controls, Lear, Magna, Martinrea, Meritor, Tenneco, Tower, Visteon and Wabco; 5) Autoliv, Autoneum, Brembo, CIE,
Continental, ElringKlinger, Faurecia, Georg Fischer, Grammer, Haldex, Hella, Leoni, Norma, Plastic Omnium, PWO, SHW, SKF, Stabilus, and Valeo
Source: Factset, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 10Financial performance of suppliers varies greatly depending on
region, company size, product focus and business model
Profitability trends in the global automotive supplier industry – 2010 vs. 2017e
Region 1 Company size 2 Product focus 3 Business model 4
> Chinese-based suppliers currently > Large suppliers with >EUR 10 bn > Chassis suppliers clearly > Product innovators are strongly
achieve the highest margins with revenues maintain strong margins improved margins to ~8% EBIT growing and generating stable
~9% EBIT of ~7.5% EBIT driven by ADAS and active safety above-average margins of >7%
> NAFTA-based suppliers profit > Midsized suppliers (EUR 1.0 to > Tire suppliers maintained strong EBIT based on technology
from their previous restructuring 2.5 bn revenues) show strong and margins due to favorable raw leadership translated into higher
efforts and re-focusing on very profitable growth material costs prices
technology
> European supplier margins have > Upper midsized suppliers (EUR > Powertrain suppliers gradually > Process specialists continue to
increased only marginally and are 2.5 to 5 bn revenues) below lost ground and achieve below- face below average margins of ~6-
currently close to the average average regarding profitability average margins in the meantime 7% EBIT due to a lower innovation
supplier universe values > Small suppliers (below > Interior suppliers still trail their level and higher competitive
> Japanese/Korean suppliers EUR 0.5 bn revenues) lag behind in peers, with recently even lower pressure
remain at a low margin level of terms of growth and profitability margins
~6% EBIT
Source: Company information, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 111 Region
China- and NAFTA-based suppliers are currently more profitable
than the average – China-based suppliers recently on the decline
Key supplier performance indicators by region, 2010 vs. 2017e [%]
Revenue ~11.9% ~3.0% ~6.9% ~7.2% ~5.1% > China-based suppliers have seen a decline in
CAGR margins in recent years from a very high level
2010-2017e due to intensified competition in their home
market, but still achieve above average
11.7 growth and profitability
~8.7 8.5 > NAFTA-based suppliers are still leveraging the
~8.3
effects from their substantial restructuring
7.5 during the 2008/2009 auto crisis and the
Ø 2017e = 7.3 6.9 ~7.2
~6.5 ~6.3 subsequent re-focusing on technology
5.5 > Europe-based suppliers largely benefit from
EBIT margin
2010-2017e leading technology positions in many
segments and a favorable customer mix
> South-Korea-based suppliers' margins have
come under pressure recently
> Japan-based suppliers have seen a slight
recovery in terms of profitability, reducing the
gap to other regions
China NAFTA Europe South Japan
Korea
2010 2017e
Source: Company information, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 122 Company size
Profitability levels are currently in line across different company
sizes – Only very small suppliers substantially lag behind
Key supplier performance indicators by company size (EUR bn sales), 2010-2017e [%]
Revenue ~1.3% ~5.6% ~6.4% ~6.5% ~6.3% ~6.2% > Large multinational suppliers (above
CAGR EUR 10 bn revenues) grew in line with the
2010-2017e average, but have been able to achieve
~8.6 above average profitability
8.4
> Large suppliers (EUR 2.5-5 bn revenues)
7.3 ~7.5
7.2 ~7.2 7.0 gave up profitability to continue strong
Ø 2017e = 7.3 6.9 ~6.9 ~6.6 revenue growth
6.3
~5.5 > Midsize suppliers (EUR 1.0-2.5 bn
revenues) increased profitability, mostly on
EBIT margin the back of a very focused and technology-
2010-2017e enabled product portfolio
> Very small suppliers lag behind in terms
of growth and profitability due to limited
resources for innovation and expansion
10.0
2010 2017e
Source: Company information, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 133 Product focus
Powertrain suppliers face increasing pressure on profitability –
Exterior suppliers strongly grow at attractive margins
Key supplier performance indicators by product focus, 2010 vs. 2017e [%]
Revenue ~2.9% ~4.9% ~6.0% ~7.4% ~5.6% ~5.6% > Tire suppliers grew at a slower rate, but
CAGR benefited from recently favorable raw
2010-2017e material costs
~11.5
> Chassis suppliers clearly improved margins
~8.0 over time – development increasingly driven
7.3 7.6~7.8 7.3 by advanced driver assistance and active
Ø 2017e = 7.3 6.8 safety
6.6 ~6.4 ~6.1 5.9 > Powertrain margins pressurized by
~5.5 intensified competition, the cost of
(multiple) innovations and the rise of
EBIT margin electric vehicles
2010-2017e
> Exterior suppliers have been strongly
growing while continuing to be profitable
above average due to growing lightweight
focus
> Electrics/Infotainment suppliers face
changing customer requirements and
increased competition, reducing profitability
Tires Chassis Power- Exterior Electrics/ Interior
train Infotainm. > Interior suppliers' margins continue to stay
2010 2017e under pressure
Source: Company information, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 144 Business model
Product innovators outpace process specialists in terms of
profitability and growth
Key supplier performance indicators by business model, 2010 vs. 2017e [%]
Revenue ~6.4% ~5.5% > On average, innovative products feature
CAGR higher differentiation potential and
2010-2017e greater OEM willingness to pay higher
7.7 prices
~7.2
6.7 ~6.7 > High entry barriers through intellectual
property in many innovation-driven
segments
> Competitive structure more consolidated
in innovation-driven segments
EBIT margin
> Higher fragmentation in many process-
2010-2017e driven segments puts pressure on prices
> Product innovators grow slightly above
process specialist due to increasing
demand for innovative products and
solutions
Product innovators1) Process specialists2)
2010 2017e
Note: Analysis excludes tire suppliers; 1) Business model based on innovative products with differentiation potential; 2) Business model based on process expertise (while product
differentiation potential is limited)
Source: Company information, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 15Margins of top-performing suppliers expected to stay at previously
high levels – Low-performing peers still significantly lagging behind
Key performance indicators of top vs. low performing suppliers1)
Revenue growth [2010=100] EBIT2) margin [%]
Top Top
194
9.6
180 9.2
163 8.7
8.2 8.3 8.3
149 8.0
132
122
100
118 120 119 116
112 112
100 6.1
5.6
5.1 5.3 5.3
Low 4.3
4.9
Low
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e
1) Top (low) performance based on above- (below-) average revenue growth 2010-2016, ROCE 2010-2016 and ROCE 2016; 2) EBIT after restructuring items
Source: Company information, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 16However, top performance is not necessarily related to (product)
innovation only
Key performance indicators of top vs. low performing suppliers1)
14 > Product innovators outperform
Revenues CAGR 2010-2017e
13 process specialists in terms of
12 Top process average profitability
11 specialists
> Top process specialists,
10 though, achieve average revenue
9 growth that is above the top
Top product
8
innovators
product innovators
7
> Large difference in growth rates
6
between top and low performing
5 Ø 5.7%
process specialists indicates the
4 relevance of scale economies
Low product
3 Low process innovators
2 specialists > Increased difference in growth
rates between top and low
1
Ø 7.3% performing product innovators
0 indicates the relevance of
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 profitable innovation
Avg. EBIT2) margin 2010-2017e
1) Top (low) performance based on above- (below-) average revenue growth 2010-2016, ROCE 2010-2016 and ROCE 2016; 2) EBIT after restructuring items
Source: Company information, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 17Short term, we expect continued, but slower revenue growth and
comparable margins to 2017e
Supplier global revenue and margin outlook 2017e/2018e
Production volume [m units] Revenue growth [2010 = 100] EBIT1) margin [%]
NAFTA Europe2)
+1% +1%
~147 7.3 7.2 ~7.3
142 7.1 7.1 7.0
138 6.8 6.8
17.8 17.4 17.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 131
124
118
16 17e 18e 16 17e 18e 113
China3) Japan/Korea 100
+1% -3%
Main revenue drivers Main EBIT drivers
27.4 27.6 27.9 12.9 13.5 13.0 > Slowing growth in mature markets (US, > Relatively stable top-line
16 17e 18e 16 17e 18e Europe, Japan/Korea) > Political and macroeconomic environment
S. America World > Continued softening of growth in China expected to remain stable with growing
+1% > Strong growth in South America, Russia, downside risks
+10% Turkey and Middle East partially counteract > Product innovators continue to translate
slowdown in major markets technology leadership to favorable pricing
93.1 94.9 96.2
2.7 3.1 3.4
16 17e 18e 16 17e 18e 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17e 18e 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17e 18e
1) EBIT after restructuring items; 2) Excluding CIS and Turkey; 3) Greater China
Source: IHS, company information, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 18Contents
A B C D E
The The The The The
status future challenge consequence Contacts
Record Upcoming Suppliers' Automotive Roland Berger
volumes and automotive traditional suppliers need and Lazard
profits, but key disruption will business will be to transform Automotive
markets are at fundamentally questioned on their business teams
a tipping point change the multiple levels models
industry
This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation.
It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from and .
© Roland Berger/Lazard Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 19Looking ahead: Several industry trends are influencing the
automotive industry in the short and long term
Automotive industry trend radar
Competition Supply base
Rising Supplier
energy insolvencies
OEMs costs Technology/
"Rising star Emerging
market Availability
Comfort
features
legislation
OEMs"
investors New of skilled
players workforce
New customers (hardware Industry 4.0
(IT/tech space) "Zero
and Digital casualties"
Global Factor cost
Continued software) technologies
localization inflation
outsourcing
Car Volume
Selective
consolidation
Further
ADAS/
automated Capital
Demotorization bundling Terms & reduced CO2 driving
buyers conditions targets markets/
Further
New growth
regions New Price reduced
Volatility of
capital markets financing
mobility pressure emissions Investors' and
concepts Volatility of banks' view
Potential Diesel on auto
downturn Triad exchange
Brexit rates suppliers
stagnation
Short-term Long-term
Note: Excluding product segment specific technology and operational issues
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 20Mobility
Ride sharing services are forecast to continue to grow at a fast
pace, attracting massive capital paired with high valuations
State of the ride hailing industry
Capital raised by industry leaders [USD bn]1) Latest reported valuation (pre money) [USD bn]
> USD 5 bn raised in latest round led > Based on its April 2017 equity investment round
Didi by Softbank
44.5
Chuxing
15.7 > Expanding internationally as a
led by Softbank
strategic investor
> USD 10 bn potential investment led > Based on the last equity investment round in
Uber 11.6 by Softbank
> Ride requests up 150% YOY
59.0 June 2016
> However, secondary market interest pegged the
value closer to USD 50 bn in June 2017
> USD 1 bn raised in latest investment
round led by Alphabet's CapitalG > Based on its October 2017 investment round
Lyft 3.6 10.0 led by CapitalG
> 1H 2017 saw as many rides as all
of 2016
Combined valuation
114 bn
1) Announced investments as of November 2017
Source: Crunchbase, desktop research, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 21Mobility
Vehicle sales for new mobility services are expected to exceed 10%
of new car sales by 2025 in the US and the EU
Share of vehicle sales for New Mobility1) [% passenger car sales]
United States EU-28 China > New mobility sales are expected
to grow through 2025 due to:
– Changes in car ownership
2% 8% 2% 3%
10% 9% 15% 9% patterns
35% – Growing urbanization
– Enhancements in technology &
mobility business models
> The disruption potential in China is
98% 92% 98% 97% higher due to its relatively lower
90% 91% 85% 91%
base of ownership levels today (1
65% car for 7 people vs. 1 for 2 in EU
and 1 for 1.25 in US)
> Post 2025, the introduction of
RoboCabs could drive a
2015 2020 2025 2015 2020 2025 2015 2020 2025
significantly larger share of sales
to new mobility
New mobility1) Other
1) Includes forecast for car sharing, ride hailing, ride sharing, and Robocabs. Does not include sales for conventional taxis or rental car fleets
Source: Global RB Mobility Revenue and Profit Pool Model, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 22Autonomous driving
Automated driving is set to arrive at fast pace – With new entrants
and real-life pilots already under way
Commercialization timeline of automated driving functionality by SAE1) levels
Automation
level (NHTSA) Current Short-term Mid/long term "Moonshot"
2010 2017 2020 2025
Level 1,& 2 Collision warning
(Driver Night vision
assistance
BSD2), Lane departure warning, Lane keeping
and partial
Lane keeping assist
automation)
Adaptive cruise control (no steering)
AEB3) AEB3) w pedestrian detection AEB3) w evasive steering assist
Parking assist (steering only)
Traffic jam assist ACC4) + steering (Driver must monitor road)
Traffic signal recognition Intersection assist
Driver monitoring Emergency cut-off
Level 3 Construction zone assist (LV)
(Conditional Construction zone assist (CV)
automation) "Parking with App" Platooning
Highway chauffeur (ACC4) w steering & system monitors road)
Traffic jam pilot
Level 4/5 Remote valet parking
(High/Full Highway pilot
automation) Exit-to-Exit
Urban pilot
Light vehicles Commercial vehicles (where significantly different from light vehicle timing)
1) Society of Automotive Engineers; 2) Blind spot detection; 3) Automated emergency braking; 4) Advanced cruise control
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 23Autonomous driving
Future penetration of highly automated vehicles will depend on
overcoming current hurdles and convergence on shared mobility
Autonomous driving – Penetration rate of highly automated cars (SAE Levels 4/5)1)
Disruptive/High scenario
> Sharing proliferates with high acceptance of car/ride
sharing services
> High penetration of autonomous vehicles in shared fleets
26% and privately owned premium and volume vehicle segments
> Autonomous, shared vehicles, called RoboCabs provide on-demand
mobility services to consumers and businesses
> High use of autonomous vehicles by ride sharing services drives down
costs significantly
Low scenario
> Shared mobility confined to early adopters in dense urban areas
> Automated driving penetration primarily in flagship premium models
5% > Continued use of human drivers renders ride sharing services'
~1-2% business models mostly unsustainableDigitization
An increasing share of vehicles will be connected globally –
Digitization as enabler for new business models and technologies
Connected vehicles
Connected vehicle forecast
[selected markets; % of vehicles sold]1) Connectivity types Drivers of growth
Regions included Type Calc.2) Data > Safety enhancement
> North America 95% (E-Call)
> Europe Smartphone-based > Infotainment
> Japan/Korea > Connectivity and calculation (entertainment, info,
power provided by smartphone navigation services)
> Greater China
> Advanced HMI (speech
57% Tethered
recognition)
> Connectivity provided by > Integration of virtual
41% smartphone personal assistants
> Over the air updates
> New OEM service
Embedded offerings
> Car with build-in telematics unit
> New business models
> Autonomous driving
2015 2020 2025
1) Including embedded (SIM card on the car, ~50% of volume), tethered (SIM card on the smartphone, ~20% of volume) and smartphone-based (calculating power in the smartphone,
~30 % of volume) systems, excl. OBD dongle-based connectivity – Share considers only North America, Europe, Japan/Korea and Greater China; 2) Calculation power/functionality
Source: Auto2X, IHS, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 25Digitization
However, improved internal & external connectivity will make modern
vehicles vulnerable to an increasing number of cyber threats
Cybersecurity threat vectors Illustrative
> Threat vectors span all
Internet based attacks Sensor attacks connected vehicle components
> 4G/5G > GPS sensor and systems
> E-Call > Radar sensor > Suppliers must design E/E
> Other ! architectures to prevent
component-level attacks and
sensors understand the design
implications for integration into
Hardware attacks Near-field wireless attacks vehicle sub-systems
> OBD II port > Bluetooth > Organization structures and
> Direct ECU attacks > WiFi design processes must adapt
accordingly
> DSRC
> Evolving legal and regulatory
> Remote key requirements for data security
& protection and product safety
must be addressed as well
Action items for holistic security concept
Secure processing Secure network (message Secure gateway (domain Secure interfaces (secure
(secure boot, run-time authentication, CAN ID killer, isolation, firewalls/filters, M2M authentication, secure
integrity, OTA updates) distributed intrusion detection) centralized intrusion key storage)
detection)
Source: Company information, Interviews with market participants, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 26Electrification
Electrification in Japan and North America mainly achieved through
HEV technology so far, whereas China more focused on BEV/PHEV
Global light vehicles xEV1) sales volume by region, 2016 ['000 units]
Total USA Europe2) China3) Japan3)/South Korea RoW
2,475 526 416 370 1,154 10
4% 0%
284 15% (41) (6)
(76) 25% 27%
464 (104) (98)
17% 39%
(89) (455)
621 23%
(95)
25%
(132)
8%
(32) 65%
(239)
57%
1,104 43% 44% (652)
(228) (185)
9%
(32)
HEV Toyota only HEV excl. Toyota BEV PHEV
HEV – Mild and full hybrid electric vehicles; BEV – Battery electric vehicles; PHEV – Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles; xEV – Class of electrified vehicles from mild hybrids to battery electric;
1) Excludes fuel cell electric vehicles; 2) Including Russia and Turkey; 3) China/Japan sales data includes only domestically produced xEVs
Source: MarkLines, Press Research, RB xEV forecast model, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 27Electrification
Powertrain electrification adoption will be influenced by push and
pull factors that have different levels of influence by region
Drivers for global powertrain electrification1)
United States Europe China
> Future widespread adoption of xEVs to > Tightening CO2 fleet emissions > xEV adoption will largely follow
be driven primarily through a TCO2) targets China's announced targets for NEV3)
advantage compared to ICE vehicles > ICE registration bans (e.g., Norway, and FH/MH4)
> Depends on the evolution of fuel and Netherlands) > Environmental concerns drive city-
battery prices, taxes, incentives, etc. > Environmental city access restrictions level plate limitations for ICE
> Increasing offer of desirable electrified permitting only low- or zero-emission > TCO2) advantage only becomes a
vehicles in premium segments vehicles (e.g., London, Paris) dominant factor from 2030 onward
> Tightening regulations will be the > TCO2) advantage only becomes a > Subsidies to promote market
dominant factor in CARB 177 states dominant factor from 2030 onward development are present but declining
> City level emissions regulations not yet > Incentives and tax advantages are
a major contributing factor present but declining
Main Economics/ Total cost
§ Regulation § Regulation
driver of ownership § §
Scenario > Oil price > CO2/km target in 2025 > CAFC5) and NEV3) balances
variable(s) > Battery cost > Phase-in percentage > FH/MH4) target
1) Besides shown factors, all regions will be influenced by the emergence of automated driving with convergence on mobility (especially electrified RoboCabs) and appeal to consumers
through performance and image 2) Total cost of ownership 3) New energy vehicle 4) Full Hybrid / Mild Hybrid 5) CAFC - Corporate average fuel consumption
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 28Electrification
Lower battery costs and potentially rising oil prices may drive
electrification penetration in the United States to ~ 20% by 2025
USA – New sales1) propulsion share [2016-2025; m units; % of sales]
High xEV scenario Mid xEV scenario Low xEV Scenario
Oil: 65 USD/barrel | Battery cost: low Oil: 55 USD/barrel | Battery cost: medium Oil: 45 USD/barrel | Battery cost: high
17.6 17.2 16.8 17.6 17.2 16.8 17.6 17.2 16.8
2% 0% 2%
7% 2% 0% 2%
3% 3% 2% 0% 2% 1% 2%
2%
3% 8%
6% 2% 7% 12% 3%
2% 20% 2%
11%
3%
97% 97% 93% 97% 95%
90% 88% 92%
80%
2016 2020 2025 2016 2020 2025 2016 2020 2025
BEV PHEV FH ICE & MH
BEV – Battery electric vehicles; PHEV – Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles; FH – Full hybrid vehicles; ICE & MH – Internal combustion engine & mild hybrid vehicles;
xEV – Class of electrified vehicles from mild hybrids to battery electric
1) Passenger cars and light duty trucks
Source: US EPA, IHS, RB xEV forecast model, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 29Electrification
Electrification in Europe varies depending on CO2 emission targets
– Share could reach between 20% a. 32% for 2025
EU281) – New sales2) propulsion share [2016-2025; m units; % of sales]
High xEV scenario Mid xEV scenario Low xEV Scenario
75 g CO2 /km in 2025 (100% target) 75 g CO2 /km in 2025 (95 % phase in)3) 75 g CO2 /km in 2025 (90 % phase in)3)
16.2 16.8 17.3 16.2 16.8 17.3 16.2 16.8 17.3
2% 2% 1% 4% 2% 2% 1% 4% 2% 2% 1% 4%
11%
6% 6% 15% 6%
2% 2% 18% 2% 2% 2% 2% 20%
26% 7%
5% 32% 5% 5%
9% 2% 2%
12%
44% 44% 2% 2% 44% 11%
2% 2% 10%
9%
47% 47% 47%
39%
35%
33%
4% 4% 4%
51% 51% 7% 51% 7%
6%
30% 30% 30%
18% 20% 21%
2016 2020 20253) 2016 2020 20253) 2016 2020 20253)
BEV PHEV FH CNG/LPG MH Gasoline Gasoline MH Diesel Diesel
BEV – Battery electric vehicles; PHEV – Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles; FH – Full hybrid vehicles; CNG/LPG – Compressed natural gas/liquefied petroleum gas vehicles;
MD – Mild hybrid vehicles; xEV – Class of electrified vehicles from mild hybrids to battery electric
1) Incl. UK; 2) Passenger cars and light commercial vehicles; 3) The top 95/90% of the fleet need to meet the target; 95 % ≈ 80 g CO2/km; 90 % ≈ 85 g CO2/km
Source: EEA, IHS, RB xEV forecast model, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 30Electrification
China NEV market with significant growth forecasted; neutral NEV
and CAFC balance with a 13% BEV and 4% PHEV share in 2025
China – New sales propulsion share [2016-2025; m units; % of sales]
High xEV scenario Mid xEV scenario Low xEV Scenario
Shares 25 % higher compared to mid xEV scenario Neutral CAFC and NEV balances; FH/MH target met1) Shares 25 % lower compared to mid xEV scenario
26.8 30.3 34.5 26.8 30.3 34.5 26.8 30.3 34.5
0% 1% 0% 1% 4% 0% 1% 3%
0% 3%
5% 0% 3% 0% 2% 11%
17% 13%
8% 6%
10% 3% 29%
4% 38%
6% 15%
47%
20%
25%
98% 98% 98%
85% 89%
82%
71%
62%
53%
2016 2020 2025 2016 2020 2025 2016 2020 2025
BEV PHEV FH/MH ICE
BEV – Battery electric vehicles; PHEV – Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles; FH/MH – Full and mild hybrid electric vehicles; ICE – Internal combustion engine vehicles;
xEV – Class of electrified vehicles from mild hybrids to battery electric; CAFC – Corporate average fuel consumption; NEV – New energy vehicle
1) Within FH/MH, a significantly higher share is expected for 48V mild-hybrids
Source: MIIT, IHS, RB xEV forecast model, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 31Recent developments point towards an acceleration of the
disruption caused by the four automotive megatrends
New mobility business models are poised to disrupt car ownership,
personal mobility and goods logistics
The timeline for level 4/5 autonomous keeps accelerating as necessary
economics, regulations and technology fall into place
In digitization, artificial intelligence offers almost limitless possibilities,
while connectivity-enabled technologies reach mainstream application
Momentum for electrification is building among OEMs due to increasing
regulatory pressure and accelerating technology advancement
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 32The automotive "end game" appears inevitable, yet the transition
period is marked by a high level of uncertainty
Scenario development (applicable to light vehicle)
Degree of change 2030+
North America
> High penetration of ride hailing in major metropolitan
areas
> Technology leadership in highly automated driving
> Strong regulatory support
Europe
China > High population density in cities
> Strong push and high maturity for electrification ideal for RoboCabs
> High penetration of ride hailing in major > Stringent emission regulation
metropolitan areas drives electrification
> Strong players pushing for > Slow regulatory processes
autonomous driving
> Fast regulatory Emerging markets
decisions > Less stringent emissions regulations delay the
growth of electric vehicles
> Growing adoption of ride hailing in major cities
> Autonomous driving is limited by lacking
infrastructure and driving behavior
Today 2020 2025 2030 Time
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 33Automotive suppliers will need to prepare for five distinct changes
that will emerge on the road to the "end game"
Emerging changes impacting automotive suppliers
Automotive Vanishing growth
End game
zone
1 > Stagnation in mature markets
> Increased usage of shared mobility solutions
Accelerated change of technologies in focus
2 > Increasing proliferation of electrified powertrains
> Strong industry push for ADAS and connectivity solutions
Emergence of software as a key differentiating factor
3 > Digital features determine value to the end-customer
> Digitization offers new monetization options
OEMs encounter increasing investment needs and margin pressure
4 > New technologies require substantial investments
> OEMs challenged by new competitors
Valuation levels of commoditized suppliers might come under pressure
5 > Outperformance of OEM valuation multiples might come to an end
> Outlook of commoditized supplier sub-sectors might be seen more critical
by equity investors as well as creditors
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 34Contents
A B C D E
The The The The The
status future challenge consequence Contacts
Record Upcoming Suppliers' Automotive Roland Berger
volumes and automotive traditional suppliers need and Lazard
profits, but key disruption will business will be to transform Automotive
markets are at fundamentally questioned on their business teams
a tipping point change the multiple levels models
industry
This document shall be treated as confidential. It has been compiled for the exclusive, internal use by our client and is not complete without the underlying detail analyses and the oral presentation.
It may not be passed on and/or may not be made available to third parties without prior written consent from and .
© Roland Berger/Lazard Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 35The automotive disruption is creating specific challenges for
automotive suppliers
Challenges for the global supplier base
Impact on suppliers
1 Vanishing growth Vanishing growth will put current supplier
business models at stake
Technology shifts require suppliers to invest
2 Accelerated change of technologies in focus
in new and old technologies in parallel
Suppliers need to build up competencies
3 Emergence of software as a key
differentiating factor fast
Suppliers will face even higher cost
4 OEMs encounter increasing investment
needs and margin pressure pressure
Commoditized suppliers will be under
5 Valuation levels of commoditized suppliers
might come under pressure
increasing pressure from their investor base
to increase shareholder value
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 361 Vanishing growth will put current supplier business models at stake
1 Vanishing growth
Overall growth is expected to stagnate and volumes might even
decline in the long term in a shared autonomous world
Short to long term growth perspectives [LV production; m units]
Short term Mid term Long term > Growth has recently
Recovery and Growth Growth Emergence of shared being slowing down
sustained growth slow down stagnation and autonomous in mature markets
mobility
CAGR CAGR CAGR > In the future,
3.5% 2.4% ~1-2% supplier revenue
Business as growth will be
usual determined more by
?
101.9 the product portfolio
94.9 Shared
88.8
mobility and content per
74.4 vehicle than by
> Slowing underlying
growth in Disruptive production volume
mature > Shifting content > Less ownership and scenario growth
markets per vehicle higher utilization of (RoboCabs)
– US > Suppliers growth mobility services > After 2025, a
– Europe perspective will > Exponential adoption
– Japan depend on of RoboCabs
decline of overall
– Korea product portfolio possible production volumes
might occur in a
2010 2015 Today 2020 2025 2030/2035 disruptive scenario
Source: IHS, Global RB Mobility Revenue and Profit Pool Model, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 381 Vanishing growth
The current supplier business model of compensating negative cost
impacts with volume growth will no longer work
Potential impact on typical supplier EBIT development [%]
Slowing growth
1.3%
impact
7.3% 1.2% 7.3% As volume
growth
stagnates,
suppliers will
-2.6%
not be able to
sustain their
EBIT margin
last year
Volume
impact
Cost
inflation
Productivity
improvement
EBIT margin
next year
Slowing/no
growth
EBIT forecast
without profitability
growth through
traditional
Assumptions
Average 3.5% growth 1.2 %LTA At 5% of own At 2.5% of At 1% of At 1% of total
means
supplier at contribution adjustment, value add total labor other cost material cost
EBIT 2017e margin material (1%), cost
of 35% labor (2.5%) &
other (1%) cost
inflation
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 391 Vanishing growth
As a consequence, suppliers will need to look for different growth
areas – Consolidation pressure will increase
Impact and consequences for suppliers
Global production volume growth may decline in the long term
> Suppliers need to ensure future growth by increasing their content per New growth
vehicle/expanding their product portfolio or by diversifying into other related or areas needed
non-related areas
Compensating cost increases with growth will no longer work
Business model
> Suppliers traditionally used growth to compensate for cost inflation and price
decreases (LTAs) review necessary
> However, overall growth might stagnate and global production volumes might
decline in the long term with adoption of disruptive technologies
Competitive pressure in growth areas will be high Further
> Many suppliers put focus on technologies with growth potential, increasing
consolidation
competitive pressure in these segments pressure
> Not all suppliers have the capability or competence or financial leeway to develop
growth areas
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 402 Technology shifts require suppliers to invest in new and old technologies in parallel
2 Technology shifts
Almost all vehicle domains will see a shift in growth focus over the
next years – Disruption impact particularly high in powertrain
Impact of technology shifts by domain
Next generation vehicle concept
Disruption impact on current business
Powertrain > E-motors and power electronics
Supplier domain Low High > Battery systems
> Simple 1-2 step reduction gears
Powertrain Chassis > Advanced driver assistance systems and
autonomous features
> Adaptive suspensions
> Active steering and braking systems
Chassis
Exterior > Shifting material focus and growing importance
of multi-material applications
> Growth of non-structural composites
Exterior
Interior > New HMI / display technologies
> Extended Infotainment solutions
> Increased interior insulation (NVH)
> Integration of electronics and surfaces
Interior
Substantial new requirements for the
supply base
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 422 Technology shifts
Electric powertrain components to experience high growth rates at
the expense of many traditional ICE components
Technology shifts – Powertrain
Background Technology trends – Winners Implications for suppliers
> Increasing cost of > Future powertrain architectures are electrified > ICE hardware
ICE/exhaust treatment resulting in several fast growing domains: commoditization
> Mild and full hybrids aid in – E-motors > Battery systems and
emissions improvement – Inverters/power electronics electronics provide
and enable ICEs with – Battery differentiation opportunities
downgraded requirements – Battery cooling > Limited potential in e-
> BEV penetration rates – 1-2 step reduction gears motors in part due to lower
increase driven by complexity vs. ICE
– Charging components
regulation, incentives and
consumer demand
Technology trends – Losers
> Consequently, traditional ICE components and
systems to experience below average growth rates:
– Engine, camshafts, crankshafts, valves, lubricants
– Exhaust, oil filters, alternators, ignition
– Transmission, clutch gearbox, propeller shaft
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 432 Technology shifts
The ADAS and AD component market will strongly grow providing
an increasing revenue pool mainly for software focused suppliers
Technology shifts – Chassis
Background Technology trends – Winners Implications for suppliers
> ADAS offers several > Advanced vehicle control and sensor systems are the > Hardware standardization /
benefits to society main benefactors of the shift to greater advanced commoditization of
and industry, driver assistance systems: traditional chassis
including accident – Advanced driver assistance systems and components and systems
mitigation, congestion autonomous features > Intelligent systems
reduction, increased – Adaptive suspensions integrated with ADAS are
driving comfort and – Active steering + braking actuators expected to offer growth
fuel efficiency gains – E-Axles (as part of electrified powertrain) potential within respective
– Vision sensors (LiDAR, cameras) domains (e.g., steering,
suspension, vision systems,
passenger safety systems)
Technology trends – Losers
> Meanwhile, traditional vehicle control systems are at
risk for reduced market share:
– Hydraulic steering systems
– Traditional axles
– Conventional suspensions
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 442 Technology shifts
Emissions regulations push OEMs for increased lightweighting of
body structures while ADAS and connectivity create new use cases
Technology shifts – Exterior
Background Technology trends – Winners Implications for suppliers
> Shifting material > Advanced material components and advanced safety > Shifting materials
focus and growing features offer potential in exterior components: competencies for non-
importance of multi- – Non-structural composites structural components
material applications – Increased usage of plastics suppliers
> New technology – Side and rear view cameras and screens > New use cases for
integration potential – Driving mode indication (autonomous vs. human intelligent exterior systems
for enhanced safety driver) may offer differentiation
> New design – Lock systems using cell phones potential particularly when
possibilities due to paired with ADAS solutions
missing ICE
powertrain
Technology trends – Losers
> Traditional materials and exterior components most at
risk for lost share include:
– Cast parts
– Non-structural steel parts
– Traditional side and rear view mirrors
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 452 Technology shifts
Autonomous driving will drastically change interior designs and
provide innovation and growth potentials
Technology shifts – Interior
Background Technology trends – Winners Key success factors
> Growing importance of > New possibilities to design the interior of a vehicle by > Successful translation of
non-driving-related electric powertrain, connectivity and automated driving customer needs in product
activities, such as – New HMIs1) (Augmented reality head up displays, innovation
infotainment, completing gesture recognition, haptic feedback) and > Product differentiation
tasks while driving integration of electronics and surfaces (OLED2) > Integration of E/E to ensure
automated, eating and panels, curved screens) value creation
drinking – Extended infotainment solutions
> Interior provides huge – New design possibilities/requirements, e.g. luxury
potential for innovation lounge seating or increased interior insulation
and continued growth (NVH3))
Technology trends – Losers
> Traditional interior components that might face lower
demand
– Analog instrument clusters
– Buttons and switches
– Conventional valves, pumps and compressors
1) Human-machine interfaces; 2) Organic light emitting diode; 3) Noise, vibration and harshness
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 462 Technology shifts
Suppliers will need to commit resources to emerging technologies
and in parallel navigate investments into current business
Impact and consequences for suppliers
Investments in existing technology are still necessary
> ICE advancement is indispensable for reaching emission targets High financial
> Emerging markets still require conventional technologies burden
> Risk of losing market share too early and hence the ability to generate enough
resources for impactful investments in new technology
No immediate
Strategies for non-growth business areas are needed return on
> Harvesting/"Last man standing" strategies potentially including investment
consolidation plays
Expensive investments into new technologies M&A with
> Limited availability of attractive targets with many potential suitors drives up the
increased
cost to pursue inorganic growth opportunities importance
> Many new technologies require extensive additions to suppliers' existing capability
set with limited specific talent and experience available for organic development
> New entrants from the consumer electronics space are committing extensive New competitive
resources into developing new solutions, which increases the investment required landscape
to develop competitive offerings
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 473 Suppliers need to build up competencies fast
3 Competency build up
With a vastly different set of features compared to today's vehicles,
future cars will depend increasingly on software
Software reliance of future vehicles [# of lines of software code]
> Some of the hardware
18 m – Boeing 787 components will be replaced
with more streamlined
design and improved
18 m – Google Chrome software functionality
– E.g. infotainment console
> The convergence of
45 m – Microsoft Office 2013 consumer electronics and
the automotive industry
leads to increased number of
62 m – Facebook (excludes back-end code) lines and higher complexity
of the software code
100-150 m – Modern premium vehicle > As vehicle software becomes
the main differentiator,
suppliers need to build up
~300 m – Future vehicle the necessary competencies
(2030+) to ensure future
competitiveness
Source: Git repository, Company websites, IEEE, Press research, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 493 Competency build up
Software companies are aiming at taking over ownership of the
OEM interface by acting as system integrators
Case study of software players as IVI1) integrators
Before Potential > In the past, IVI hardware providers
largely played the system integrator
role, buying IVI software from
OEM customer OEM customer external parties and interacting
directly with OEMs
> With the rise of importance of
software, hardware suppliers are in
Hardware player as Software player as the danger of losing their system
the system integrator system integrator integrator status
IVI hardware integrator IVI software integrator > Today, IVI software players have
capabilities to act as system
integrators, managing OEM client
IVI software IVI hardware
interface and simply sourcing
integrator provider
hardware from other companies
Supplier 2 Supplier 2 Supplier 2
> As a consequence, traditional
Supplier n Supplier n Supplier n suppliers have taken steps to invest
in software and build integration
capabilities to replace external
1) In-vehicle infotainment
software providers
Source: Industry interviews, Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 503 Competency build up
The new competencies are difficult to acquire and suppliers have to
compete for talent with high tech giants and Silicon Valley start ups
Impact and consequences for suppliers
Software has become a main differentiation factor
Old
> Software related functions have become main differentiation criteria for car buyers
> Ascending technologies around ADAS heavily rely on software competencies
> Software functionality increasingly substitutes hardware solutions will often not
work anymore
Hiring of talent already very difficult for suppliers
> IT and consumer electronics giants as well as start ups compete for similar New competencies
(software) engineering talent
> OEMs are currently building up their capabilities around new technologies, hard to build up
increasing the fight for talent
New culture necessary to successfully integrate new competencies Cultural mindset
change required
> IT and consumer electronics industries with different innovation approach and
product development processes
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 514 Suppliers will face even higher cost pressure
4 Cost pressure
OEMs will search for ways to cope with competitive pressure and
upcoming investment needs, many of them affecting suppliers
Cost and investment reduction efforts from OEMs
OEM cost reduction levers (Selection) Relevance Implications for suppliers Impact
> Procurement: OEMs will continue to > Strong OEM position, as many hardware
-
Classic levers
expect price downs/LTAs parts will commoditize even more
> Structural setup: OEMs will optimize > No direct implications n/a
their footprint and overhead structure
> Complexity reduction: OEMs may
reduce their model ranges and variants
> Part standardization and volume
bundling as consequence -
> Disaggregation: OEMs move towards
selective sourcing on component level
> Increased transparency
> Margin for system integration under risk -
New levers
> Joint development: OEMs will reduce
development efforts for certain
> R&D budgets at suppliers affected
-
technologies like Diesel
> Outsourcing: OEMs may outsource
captive production of non-differentiating
> Potential for additional business
> Additional business might be declining in
+/-
hardware parts the long term
High relevance
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger
Low relevance - Negative + Positive
Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 534 Cost pressure
Some OEMs move towards more selective sourcing on component
level in order to benefit from hardware commoditization
Example: Disaggregation of systems
OEM control of design
Integration of systems
> Fit product design language
> Reduce cost, raise quality > Enables E/E architecture
Disaggregation of integration across vehicle systems
systems > Modularization of software
> OEMs moving from sourcing supports possible convergence
Rise of software content full systems to individual of different systems (e.g., IVI and
> New features are SW driven components ADAS)
> Opportunity to differentiate > Some European OEMs lead > Possibly move towards software-
push for disaggregation, as-a-service
others expected to follow > Interchangeability of suppliers
Hardware commoditization increases
> Limited differentiation > OEMs may integrate or outsource
the activity to Tier 1 suppliers
> Low cost of components
OEM benefit to Increase cost transparency | Build up competency | Enable platform development
disaggregate Direct access to expert tier 2 suppliers | Reduce time to market
Source: Lazard, Roland Berger Global Automotive Supplier Study 2018.pptx 54You can also read
