Hurricanes and Hail: AccuWeather's Hurricane Expert Helps you Prepare
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Hurricanes
and
Hail:
AccuWeather’s
Hurricane
Expert
Helps
you
Prepare
Dan
Ko'lowski,
Expert
Senior
Meteorologist,
AccuWeather
Claudia
Dent
VP
Product
Management,
Everbridge
connect
blog.everbridge.com
@everbridge
Linkedin.com
Agenda
• Hurricane
Risks
and
Mi>ga>on
Strategies
• 2013
Hurricane
Forecast
• Solving
Communica>ons
Challenges
• Q&A
LinkedIn Member? Join our LinkedIn Everbridge
Incident Management Professionals Group
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We’ll
send
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@everbridge
recording
aNer
#everbridge
the
event
#hurricaneprep
3
Dan
Ko'lowski
Claudia
Dent
Expert
Senior
Meteorologist,
VP
Product
Marke9ng,
AccuWeather
Everbridge
4
Hurricane Preparedness For Your People, Property, and Profits Dan Kottlowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions In conjunction with
What is a Hurricane? Risks to Lives and Property How to Mitigate Hurricane Damage 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
What is a Hurricane?
Hurricane Characteristics • Largest and most destructive storm systems on Earth • Average Diameter ~ 500 km (310 miles) • Eye – area of calm with broken cloud cover • Eye Wall – consists of intense thunderstorms that circle the eye. • Eye Wall – region of heaviest rain and strongest wind • Life Span – less than 1 week • Cool water, dry air, land, and strong upper level winds greatly weaken the storm 8 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Hurricane Definition • Intense tropical cyclone • Sustained winds >64 knots (73 mph) • Cyclonic circulation in Northern Hemisphere • Comes from Indian word that means Evil Wind/God of Evil • Called a typhoon in western North Pacific • Called a cyclone in India • Called a tropical cyclone in Australia 9 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Hurricane
Dennis
• Category 3
• July 9, 2005
• 120 mph winds
10 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryHurricane
Katrina
• Category 5
• Aug. 28, 2005
• 170 mph winds
11 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryHurricane
Rita
• Category 5
• Sept. 21, 2005
• 180 mph winds
12 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryA Model of a Hurricane • Dark areas are rain bands • Note that upward motion alternates with downward motion, resulting in banded rain structure • Air motion of the eye is downward and sinking 13 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Tropical Cyclone Average per Year
26 12
16 6
7 9 10
• Average 86 per year worldwide
• Note the lack of storms at the equator
14 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryNotable Storm Tracks • Erratic & Unpredictable 15 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Paths of all known Tropical Cyclones 16 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Hurricane Gloria • Sept. 27, 1985 • Note how maximum winds are on the right side of a moving storm. • 100 knots vs. 50 knots 17 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Conditions Favorable for Development • Weather disturbance with circular movement • Warm water (80 degrees F) at sufficient depth • Winds blowing east to west 10,000 ft. to 40,000 ft. • No significant dry air nearby • Surface pressures below normal 18 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Stages of Development • Easterly Wave – no organization, clouds are curved • Tropical Disturbance – clouds are organizing into a central mass of thunderstorms with only a slight circulation • Tropical Depression – winds 20-34 knots (23-38 mph) and closed isobars • Tropical Storm – winds 35-64 knots (39-73 mph) and packed isobars • Hurricane – winds 74 mph or higher 19 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Hurricane Dean
Hurricane
Storm
Depression
20 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryHurricane Irene
Eye Development
21 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryTools Meteorologists Use to Forecast Hurricanes • Satellite Images • Derived weather variables from satellite data • Ship, buoy and costal data • Aircraft reconnaissance • Radar near coastal areas • Computer models • Historical records • Intuition 22 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Hurricane Intensity
• Intensifies through the release of heat given off when
water vapor condenses producing clouds and rain.
• Intensity is controlled by the structure of the hurricane and
the water over which it travels.
– If upper level structure of a hurricane allows air to flow out of the
top with ease, then it has good upper level structure.
– Hurricane has enough warm water for intensification if the water
over which it travels temperature is 80 degrees or higher.
– If both the upper level structure and the warm water work in
concert, then a hurricane will intensify, sometimes more rapidly
than expected.
23 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryHurricane Intensity
• Winds at least 74 mph
• Rated on scale from 1-5, where 5 is most intense with
winds over 155mph
• Ratings at or above 3 are considered major hurricanes
which cause significant damage
• Only 3 hurricanes have hit the U.S. at category 5 intensity
– 1935 : Labor Day
– 1969 : Camille
– 1992 : Andrew
24 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietarySaffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Tropical
Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
Storm
39 - 73 mph 74 - 95mph 96 -110 mph 111-130 mph 131-155 mph > 155 mph
(34-63 kt) (64-82 kt) (83-95 kt) (96-113 kt) (114-135 kt) (> 136 kt)
Alberto Katrina Frances Katrina Charley Andrew
(2006) (FL - 2005) (2004) (LA - 2005) (2004) (1992)
Allison Claudette Isabel Wilma Hugo Camille
(2001) (2003) (2003) (FL- 2005) (1989) (1969)Risks to Lives and Property
The Hurricane Problem • Potential loss of life • Major to catastrophic damage • Storm surge • Inland flooding • Damaging winds • Disruption of business and commerce • Number of tropical cyclones per year 27 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Potential Loss of Life
Deadliest Hurricanes
Location Year Deaths
Galveston, TX 1900 8000
Lake Okeechobee, FL 1928 1836
Katrina 2005 1200+
FL Keys & Texas 1919 600
New England 1938 600
Florida Keys 1935 408
Audrey (LA & TX) 1957 390
NE U.S. 1944 390
28 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryMajor to Catastrophic Damage
Costliest Hurricanes at Landfall
Hurricane Year Category Cost (billions)
Katrina 2005 3 108.0
Sandy 2012 1 50.0
Ike 2008 2 29.5
Andrew 1992 5 26.5
Wilma 2005 3 21.0
Ivan 2004 2 18.8
Irene 2011 1 16.6
Charley 2004 4 15.1
Rita 2005 3 12.0
Frances 2004 3 9.5
Allison 2001 TS 9.0
Jeanne 2004 3 7.7
29 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary Hugo 1989 4 7.0Storm Surge
• Build up of high water & waves
ahead of the hurricane landfall.
• Lower pressure causes sea
water to rise (1 inch for every 1
millibar drop in pressure)
• Dependent upon
– Slope of continental shelf
– Shape of immediate coast
– Hurricane strength, size, and
movement
30 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryStorm Surge Danger • Winds can generate huge waves, which can be dozens of feet high. • Heights ranging from 1 to 25 feet • Waves become swells that move outward in all directions. 31 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Who is most at risk?
Value of homes at risk Number of homes exposed
Area
of storm surge damage to flood or surge inundation
Long Island, NY $99 billion 196,740
Miami / Palm Beach, FL $44.9 billion 119,778
Virginia Beach, VA $44.6 billion 253,214
New Orleans, LA $39 billion 120,181
Tampa, FL $27 billion 177,453
Houston, TX $20 billion 140,896
Jacksonville, FL $19.6 billion 112,165
Charleston, SC $17.7 billion 34,126
Corpus Christi, TX $4.7 billion 35,153
Mobile, AL $3 billion 22,178
Total $319.5 billion 1,221,884
32 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary33 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Inland Flooding
• Notable Hurricane Floods
Hurricane Location Year
Irene Eastern U.S. 2011
Lee PA, NY, NJ 2011
Katrina New Orleans 2005
Frances & Ivan Eastern U.S 2004
Isabel VA & MD 2003
Allison Houston 2001
Floyd Carolinas 1999
Agnes PA 1972
34 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryDamaging Winds • Wind damage at landfall is much worse than wind damage well inland in most storms • Tornadoes spinning off of tropical cyclones can cause extensive damage • Any loose object can become wind debris in moments 35 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Before Katrina…
…After Katrina
Disruption of Business & Commerce
New Orleans, LA after Houston, TX after
Hurricane Katrina Tropical Storm Allison
38 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryNumber of Tropical Cyclones per Year
Period Tropical Cyclones Hurricanes
1886 – 2000 8.7 5.1
1951 – 2000 10.0 5.9
1961 – 2000 10.0 5.8
1971 – 2000 10.1 5.6
1981 – 2000 10.3 5.8
1986 – 2000 10.7 6.1
1991 – 2000 11.0 6.4
ü 2000 – 2012 15.6 7.5
39 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary2012 Hurricane Season
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
Alberto May 19 – 22 60
Beryl May 26 – 30 70
Chris June 19 – 22 75
Debby June 23 – 27 60
Ernesto August 1 – 10 85
Florence August 3 – 6 60
Helene August 9 – 18 45
Gordon August 15 – 20 110
Isaac Aug. 21 – Sept. 1 80
Joyce August 22 – 24 40
Kirk Aug. 28 – Sept. 2 105
Leslie Aug. 30 – Sept. 11 75
Michael September 3 – 11 115
Nadine Sept. 11 – Oct. 4 90
Oscar October 3 – 5 50
Patty October 11 – 13 45
Rafael October 12 – 17 90
Sandy October 22 – 29 110
Tony October 22 – 25 50
40 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryHow to Mitigate Hurricane Damage
How can we mitigate the damage? • Change building codes • Prevent building in flood prone areas • Build stronger and smarter homes • Better drainage • Build better levees • Modernize utilities 42 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Tropical Cyclone Preparedness
• When warnings and advisories are issued be sure
that you, your home, and your business are prepared
for what lies ahead.
• Secure your…
– Home
– Business
– Self
43 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietarySecure Home
• Be prepared now
– Stock up on food & water
– Insurance coverage (wind, flood, etc.)
– Have a plan now of how you will react
• Get prepared as storm approaches
– Board up windows
– Remove potential wind debris
– Locate supplies
– Center of home, away from windows
44 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietarySecure Business • Board up windows • Elevate items from floors • Back up power supply • Back up files & computers • Off-site locations • Plan how to get back up and running after storm goes through 45 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Secure Self
• When / will you evacuate
– Right in the path
– Glancing blow
• Do you live in a flood prone area
• Balance securing your home and
your business
• Know those around you need to
prepare as well
• Family & Pets
46 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryHow accurate are the forecasts?
• Very good for large, well behaved, hurricanes
• Slow moving hurricanes make track forecasts less accurate.
• Forecasters have trouble determining how strong a hurricane
is beyond 24 hours.
• Ability to communicate potential hazards for a specific place
has improved dramatically over the past 20 years.
– A forecast made for the third day out is just as accurate as a 24 hour
forecast was 15 years ago.
– Less lives are lost due to the complex, but well organized methods of
warning and evacuating people.
47 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Factors Influencing 2013 Season • Warm water temperatures across most of the Atlantic Basin. • ENSO neutral pattern expected through the season, so no important climatic enhancement from El Nino or La Nina. • Warm ocean water in the main developmental region (off the African coast and Caribbean) supports lower surface pressure in these sub regions. • Lower pressure promotes tropical cyclone development and intensification. 49 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Sea Surface
Temperature
Anomaly
for June 8, 2013
Main Developmental Region
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MAIN DEVELOPMENTAL
REGION ARE RUNNING WARMER THAN LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME
50AMO
Atlantic
Multi-Decadal
Oscillation
• Ocean water temperatures
have been rising since
1995 due to the AMO AMO
• Note the increase in
storms since 1995. Years
Tropical
Cyclones
Hurricanes
Major
Hurricanes
1968-1995 9.6 5.2 1.6
1995-2012 15.2 8.0 3.7
51 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryMDR • Sea surface temperature forecast from the Japanese Meteorological Agency model for June, July, and August 52 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
July, August, September August, September, October • The ECMWF climate model shows near to slightly above normal SST in the main developmental region 53 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
June - August September - November
Courtesy of the JMA climate model run May 2013
• Japanese Climate Model shows above normal rainfall (blue)
over the Caribbean and eastern Gulf of Mexico in June,
July, and August then mostly in the Caribbean
• This might suggest the more active areas of the basin
54 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary• UKMET rainfall anomaly forecast July, August and September shows above normal rainfall over much of the Caribbean and the Texas to Louisiana coast and East coast 55 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
• Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is a phenomenon that brings high level westerly winds for 24-48 months then easterly winds for the next 24-48 months. • Enhancing factor in Tropical Storm formation when in the positive phase creating high level wind flow from the west. 56 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
• Lower shear promotes Tropical Cyclone development • Strong shear limits development 57 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and Proprietary
Analog Years
Year Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes Landfalls
1952 7 7 6 2
1996 13 9 6 4
ü 2001 15 9 4 3
2012 19 10 1 4
Average 14 9 4 3
• Note: considering that technology allows us to detect and
track more storms the total number of storms in 1952
could increase by 3-5.
58 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryHurricane Season Prediction for
Atlantic Basin
NOAA
AccuWeather 2012 Season
Forecast
Forecast 2013 Numbers Normal
2013
Tropical
16 13-20 19 12
Storms
Hurricanes 8 7-11 10 6
Major
4 3-6 1 3
Hurricanes
U.S. No forecast
3 issued 4 2
Landfalls
59 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietaryCaveats
• Expecting 4 major hurricanes
• In some years there are signals in climate models and
analog years that give us an idea of what coastal areas
are more vulnerable.
• Size and the speed at which the storm moves is just as
important as the Saffir-Simpson wind scale classification.
• Too early to tell where stronger hurricanes might track.
– Sandy was classified as a category 1 hurricane before landfall.
– Size and speed at which a storm moves can be just as important
as the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale Classification.
60 | ©2013, AccuWeather, Inc. Confidential and ProprietarySolving
Communica>on
Challenges
Claudia
Dent
VP,
Product
Management,
Everbridge
Severe
Weather:
By
the
Numbers
Everbridge
During
Hurricane
Sandy:
+ Over
10,000,000
No>fica>ons
+ 23%
sent
during
the
storm
+ 156%
increase
over
Hurricane
Irene
+ 31%
increase
in
ci>zen
opt-‐in
62The
Need
for
Effec>ve
Communica>ons
Employee
/
CiCzen
ProtecCon
&
Life
Safety
Field
&
Mobile
Team
CoordinaCon
+ Safety
Alerts
+ Work
schedule
changes
+ Severe
weather
alerts
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cancella>ons
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Evacua>ons
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escala>ons
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advisories
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updates
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Team
Ac>va>on
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conference
calls
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Collabora>on
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roll-‐calling
&
safety
verifica>on
63Communica>on
Challenges
Delivery
Challenges
Responder
Challenges
Errors
under
duress
Have
the
messages
been
received?
Old
contact
lists
Have
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right
teams
been
no>fied?
Too
many
systems
Are
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messages
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and
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Inconsistent
processes
Can
we
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Limited
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What
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we
get
audited?
Can
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prove
it?
64Smart
Delivery:
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Speed
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Intelligence
Smart
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Automa>on
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Social
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Management
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Response:
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Confirming
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Target
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69Weather…
70Everbridge
Weather
Alerts
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Specific
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75Assured
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Individual
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contacts
using
personal
preferences
to
improve
message
confirma>on
Alan
Sue
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First
A'empt
ü
cell
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10:02:03
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work
text
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