Wireless in 2020: looking ahead at what promises to be an eventful New Year - Real Wireless
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Wireless in 2020: looking
ahead at what promises
to be an eventful New Year
Real Wireless Limited t +44 207 117 8514
PO Box 2218 f +44 808 280 0142
Pulborough e info@realwireless.biz
West Sussex w real-wireless.com
RH20 4XB UK @real_wirelessWireless in 2020: looking ahead at what
promises to be an eventful year
Every year, we see new achievements for the we have helped regulators to develop a
wireless industry, as well as new challenges, variety of consensus-building approaches.
and 2019 was no exception. So what should Austria is a case in point. Here we worked
the industry be celebrating now that 2019 in an advisory capacity with Austria’s
has drawn to a close? And what might the Regulatory Authority for Broadcasting and
industry be excited about in 2020? Here’s Telecommunications (RTR) on the nations
the Real Wireless view – drawn from the cellular infrastructure taking into account all
insights of our in-house experts – on why an national operators and establishing viable
eventful year is expected. new spectrum and densifications options. We
assessed the number of sites required (and
Rural reach the cost incurred) for each MNO to meet
coverage obligations within the context
Rural and remote coverage has long of RTR’s stated desire to
received a lot of lip service, but it does now establish an investment-
appear that a number of governments and friendly framework.
industry players are backing their words In the event, RTR
with investment. Only a few months ago has delivered
the four biggest UK mobile networks – EE, that framework A shared rural network
O2, Three and Vodafone – alongside the UK combined with a
has been proposed as
government, agreed to invest up to £1 billion cleverly devised
into tackling ‘not-spots’ – rural areas with coverage part of a push to bring 4G
little or no signal. A shared rural network has obligation coverage to 95 per cent
been proposed as part of a push to bring mechanism
4G coverage to 95 per cent of the UK by that encourages of the UK by 2025
2025. If the mobile networks deliver on these operators to
commitments (which will cost them around ensure coverage
£500 million) the UK government has agreed to remote and
to match that investment and Ofcom will rural areas.
remove the planned coverage obligations
from the forthcoming 700MHz and 3.6GHz Many governments still think of spectrum
spectrum auctions. auctions as a revenue-generating exercise
rather than a way of producing a desirable
An important point of this Shared Rural outcome for all stakeholders. It will be
Network (SRN) concept is the emphasis interesting therefore to see whether the
on 4G, with which we totally agree. Rural Austrian experience really can benefit
coverage is mostly an economic challenge. everyone: operators, end users and
The promise of 5G is something of a red the government.
herring when a standardised and maturing
technology like 4G can offer so much for rural Ireland, unsurprisingly, has a number of
end users. It’s a pragmatic way forward that, issues in delivering rural coverage including
importantly, does not exclude the evolution a high road density and a relatively small
to 5G over time. population, some of which is spread
widely over a predominantly rural country.
The UK proposal is not the only one to tackle Itwas in this context that we were asked
rural coverage of course. We have experience by the Irish regulator (Comreg) to help
of working with countries where different with a study addressing future mobile
approaches have been tried and where connectivity in the country.
Real Wireless Smart investment decisions for smart ports 2Our key finding was that mobile broadband Transport
will continue to play a key role in extending
mobile capacity and coverage in Ireland. On transport too, you might have thought
We also found that, beyond a certain level more advances would have been made
of coverage, the cost of providing 30Mbit/s since our May 2016 blog concluded that
to the population rises exponentially. Higher there was a lot of work needed to provide
data speeds have a very material effect acceptable connectivity on trains. However,
on costs. rail continues to be a challenge, not least
because there are still unresolved safety
The approach we used to and economics debates related to putting
support the Austrian equipment close to rail tracks.
and Irish regulators
had its genesis That said, Nokia’s recent win of a Deutsche
Enhanced mobile in approaches Bahn tender to deliver and test the world’s
broadband (eMBB) will developed for first 5G-based network for automated rail
the UK 4G operation is an encouraging development,
continue to play a key auctions, and as are discussions of possible synergies with
role in extending mobile used for Ofcom the UK’s Strategic Road Network to ensure
support, in 2012. a level of coverage to the country’s trains.
capacity and coverage We continued to However, there is still room for uncertainty
innovate around over whether a convincing business case can
our software tools be made for supplying mobile capacity to
over the intervening passengers in particular.
years and now have a
market leading capability to By contrast there seems to be strong
establish site deployment/upgrade costs support for a role for wireless in the
balanced against coverage and service development of connected vehicles. The
level benefits to targeted areas (properties, evolution of 4G/5G vehicle to everything
road and rail) in rural and semi-rural (v2x) standards is continuing and our own
communities where mobile coverage is work on the AutoAir project – drawing to a
desperately needed. close in 2020 – aims to help mature and
prove the technology that will make fully
As for the role of sharing in providing rural connected and autonomous vehicles (CAV)
coverage, our experience so far is that a commercial reality.
finding consensus among operators on the
sites to share (or not) and the conditions in The AutoAir consortium has demonstrated,
which this might be relevant will take some through the use of both 60/70 GHz
time to work through. The choice of site(s) mmWave and sub 6 GHz networks, the
to share (whether mobile operator sites ability to connect vehicles moving at high
or 3rd party sites) or to deploy new sites speed and stream data – both between
needs to take into account factors such as them and to fixed infrastructure. Spin-out
clearly defined coverage and service area projects are already commencing at the
targets that are likely to bring maximum UK-based Millbrook Proving Ground; the
benefits to the consumers - £500 million leading vehicle testing facility for the design,
of taxpayers money is promised to be engineering and development of automotive
invested in improving rural mobile coverage and test technology propulsion systems. The
and this needs to be spent wisely to yield connected vehicle market is continuing to
the maximum benefits. In any case, rural develop with recent positive signs including
networks in the UK – and the role of sharing – electric car specialist, Tesla, announcing
will, we are certain, remain important issues pricing for connected services in the US.
in the coming year as the foundations for the
shared rural network are formed.
Real Wireless Smart investment decisions for smart ports 3A couple of questions remain that need to cost of providing these reliable services via
be addressed. Firstly, for the industry to scale network slicing from the existing wide-area
and realise the $173 billion market value public mobile network. We looked at how
predicted for 2040, there will be a need for the operational benefits of port services
a vast amount of integrated circuits (ICs) can translate to potential revenues and
on a lot of semiconductor chips. Achieving examined ways in which
this in a cost effective manner is a very reliable wireless services
real challenge. can be a key enabler
for smart port
The second question relates to the indecision and smart city There needs to be
regarding the competing V2X technologies services such a clear strategy to
of 5G and ITS-G5, an evolution of the wireless as intelligent
expand the number
802.11p standard that operates in the 5.9GHz transport
frequency band. Both have been proposed systems. of organizations which
as potential options for connecting vehicles We also can deploy small cells if
to other vehicles and road infrastructure showed how
in the UK. With different strengths and the flexibility densification is to be a
weaknesses, can these technologies of virtualised viable option
compete and live together, or are we looking 5G network
another BetaMax / VHS video recorder architectures means
showdown as we saw in the 1980s? that network resources
can be used more efficiently
Private networks – and over-dimensioning in the network can
be reduced.
More optimistically, a future in which
private 5G and LTE networks may offer new Private networks for airports will be a focus
revenue sources for operators and business for Real Wireless and other players in the
models for industries is already being coming year; we’ve noticed a significant
demonstrated. For example, uptick in interest in our services in this sector
as part of the two-year and we expect this interest to continue to
EU Horizon 2020 5G grow in 2020.
MoNArch project, Real
Wireless developed These aren’t the only encouraging signs
techno-economic for the private network model; we have
assessment analysed the merits of building private
methods networks in various contexts and the outlook
validated by is positive. The readiness of Germany and the
HEAT MAP experts in the UK in particular to carve out some spectrum
ports sector for lightly licensed use for non-incumbents
IMAGE to quantify is significant.
the costs and
benefits of 5G Of course, there will be challenges. Resolving
deployments. issues around roaming in and out of these
These were then private network domains in a seamless way
applied to the for users will be essential. We also don’t
real-world setting of underestimate the difficulty of designing,
Hamburg Port. building, maintaining and operating a
professional-grade network, even at a
A Real Wireless-led report modest scale.
on the project discussed the extra
Real Wireless Smart investment decisions for smart ports 4In this regard MNO skills and the help of the US of the CBRS band, which remains a
system integrators will be key to making this popular topic on the conference circuit. This
area feasible and workable. Nevertheless, we has clearly influenced Ofcom in its
see this as a key area for advances in 2020. introduction of Local Access
licences (which enable
Densification organisations to
access spectrum in
By contrast, the outlook for densification which incumbents
may be less clear. We have discussed this already exist) and
at length in recent years, regularly focusing Shared Access,
on the support we can offer regulators. which has
Our part in the UK5G Connected Places similarities with
group, along with the work of the so-called the licensed
‘barrier busters’ of the UK’s Department for access tier
IMAGE
Digital, Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) are of CBRS.
modest but encouraging examples of how
regulators can address this issue. Ofcom also says
it is investigating
By contrast, private operators or neutral a move to
hosts sharing hardware and (possibly) deliver dynamic
spectrum (see Shared Access below) spectrum access in
could enable cost-effective multi- the future. That would
operator support. This in turn could offer be a welcome change as
opportunities for customization or added it could bring the flexibility and
value services, although this will depend affordability of a fully dynamic shared
on the network user(s). access system into play. In any case there
looks to be consensus in Europe that ways
Essentially then, there needs to support sharing are desirable. In July,
to be a clear strategy to for example, Ofcom announced new rules
expand the number allowing spectrum sharing in four bands, with
There needs to be of organizations the aim of making it easier for businesses
which can deploy or localised service providers to build and
a clear strategy to small cells if operate various types of wireless networks.
expand the number densification is
to be a viable These are welcome moves to open up
of organizations which option – but spectrum for enterprise and alternative
can deploy small cells if there’s still service providers, to ensure that every
some work industry – not just telecoms – can benefit
densification is to be a
to do before from innovative wireless technologies,
viable option this happens. including 4G and 5G. However, there
However, if progress are many compromises in the proposed
can be made, 2020 framework, especially when compared with
could be a pivotal year presumed role models such as the USA’s 3.5
for densification. GHz CBRS or Germany’s award of 100 MHz
in the 3.7 GHz band for industrial use.
Shared access
Our experience of white space – using
Shared access is still a work in progress too. gaps in the radio spectrum in TV frequency
Shared access – and enablers for shared bands, which can be used to offer wireless
access – often involves a focus on the use in applications has shown that the device
Real Wireless Smart investment decisions for smart ports 5ecosystem factor must be managed. However, Open RAN got a major boost
Mainstream chipsets are now support in November with Vodafone announcing
different sharing approaches which a Europe-wide tender not long after
will change the economics of shared announcing its first trials of the technology
spectrum approaches. in the region but there are still some
uncertainties. For example: what does
Nevertheless, whatever governments may Vodafone’s initiative mean at a group level
say, the MNO community is still lukewarm as opposed to a local operating company
about shared access. It’s hardly surprising level? And can fragmentation of the
as these are economically uncertain times implementation of networks be avoided?
for MNOs; if sharing is observed to create
economic value in connectivity but is outside The year ahead
of the control of the MNOs, expect to see
shareholders questioning the wisdom of So what is the
paying large sums for a spectrum ‘asset’ that outlook for
Lab iurepel lignat.
is perhaps starting to see its value eroded. the wireless
industry in Pitae nusciumquia
But shared access won’t go away. The large 2020? Capital accabo. Ut mi,
quantity of spectrum in mmWave designated budgets
for IMT purposes from the recent World are going tempelit ilita vellamet
Radiocommunication Conference 2019 to continue et alignis sant, quae
(WRC-19) will surely be part of the sharing to take a
narrative over 2020. pounding as imodis deles anduntio
the pressure exerfernam, sitae
Prospects for the open RAN to deploy 5G
continues; however,
Also high on the list of discussion topics there are still critical
in the coming year will be the open RAN questions around the
(O-RAN) roadmap. O-RAN architecture is sustainability of revenues. Wireless must
the foundation for building the virtualized continue to evolve and find its footholds into
RAN on open hardware, with embedded industries and use cases barely considered
AI-powered radio control, that has been a decade ago, its potential remains vast
envisioned by operators and supported and the possibilities exciting. But many
by standards organizations. Will it work? questions remain and this year won’t
Or will it go the way of Open Base Station answer all of them.
Architecture Initiative (OBSAI) in the
early 2000s? However, one thing is certain: during
2020 Real Wireless will be supporting
OBSAI was a largely unsuccessful attempt to vendors, regulators, operators and industry
standardise internal base station interfaces. associations in trying to bring clarity to a
Today, we feel the landscape is different; fast-changing wireless landscape.
nearly twenty years on, a combination
of software-oriented architecture, cost
pressures, and lack of suppliers for MNOs
may have created a tipping point. Thus,
O-RAN may well enjoy more success than
OBSAI, though stringent requirements
on latency and reliability of the RAN will
continue to challenge the practicality
of solutions.
Real Wireless Smart investment decisions for smart ports 6About Real Wireless
Real Wireless is the world’s leading independent wireless advisory
firm. Its network of experts includes engineers, physicists,
economists, security advisors, business strategists and deployment
specialists. Real Wireless clients benefit from a comprehensive
portfolio of specialist and custom tools that analyse radio
network performance, techno-economic impact and the business
model implications of wireless systems. With this unmatched
resource Real Wireless is able to advise the industry and all user
groups, spanning businesses to governments, mobile operators,
regulators and technology companies on every aspect of
wireless technology.
Real Wireless has applied this unique range of technical
and strategic expertise to some of the UK’s biggest wireless
infrastructure projects – from major stadium connectivity
to shopping malls to transport systems – and has worked
with operators, vendors and regulators on all forms of
wireless connectivity. It has also advised governments and
the European Union on the technical, social and economic
implications of communications policy.
Real Wireless experts help clients to understand, select
and deploy technology according to need; we deliver truly
independent advice as we are not affiliated with any association,
company or proprietary standard. That is why, with 5G on
the horizon, Real Wireless is best placed to guide and advise
businesses on the choices and opportunities next generation
communications systems will bring.
Venues & Transport Government Commercial Urban Rural
Campuses Property Development Development
Real Wireless Limited t +44 207 117 8514
PO Box 2218 f +44 808 280 0142
Pulborough e info@realwireless.biz
West Sussex w real-wireless.com
RH20 4XB UK @real_wirelessYou can also read
