ICMPD Regional Migration Outlook 2021 Latin America and the Caribbean - Five things to look out for in 2021 Key events and trends in the region
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ICMPD Regional Migration Outlook 2021 Latin America and the Caribbean Five things to look out for in 2021 Key events and trends in the region
Five things to look out for in 2021
Below is a non-exhaustive list of trends and developments for LAC that will be high on the agenda of
decisionmakers and analysts alike.
1. The further development of the COVID-19 crisis on a regional and
global scale
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused deep disruption at social, economic and political levels in LAC.
Migration did not form an exception. The pandemic has cut off mobility pathways, stranded migrants,
destroyed jobs and income, and pushed millions of migrants and vulnerable populations into poverty.
However, it has not put an end to migration. The further development of the pandemic will decide the
tightening or lifting of mobility restrictions, trigger or impede migration movements, and allow
economies to recover or push them further into recession. All of this will largely influence the size and
direction of formal and informal migration flows in 2021.
2. Increased emigration from Venezuela
In December 2020, Venezuela held parliamentary elections, which were boycotted by the large
majority of opposition parties and in which less than one third of registered voters participated. The
United Socialist Party of Venezuela won more than 90% of seats to the National Assembly and Mr.
Nicolás Maduro gained leadership of the last oppostion-controlled power center in the government.
The election results were rejected by the Lima Group, the EU, the USA and the OAS for failing to comply
with the minimum international standards to be considered free and fair. Venezuela’s
multidimensional crisis and political gridlock will most likely not be solved in the near future and
continue in 2021. It is foreseeable that the softening of lockdown measures will lead to an increase in
migration flows from Venezuela to neighbouring countries mainly in the second half of 2021. Many
Venezuelans who returned to the country during the pandemic have stated their intention to leave
the country again in 2021. Estimates put the total number of Venezuelans abroad at 7.1 million by the
end of this year (+1.7 million compared with 2020).1
3. “Migrant caravans” putting pressure on political cooperation
in the region
Migrant caravans started to emerge in 2018. The term refers to migrants who move in larger groups
and try to cross borders jointly in order to reach their desired destination, mainly the United States.
Although the phenomenon represents only a small fraction of migrants moving in the region, it gained
relevance due to its high visibility and public attention. In January 2021, around 7,000–8,000 migrants,
the vast majority from Honduras, joined the first Central American migrant caravan of the year.
3
Most migrants could not afford the negative COVID-19 test required by the Guatemalan authorities to
enter the country. Once on Guatemalan territory, several efforts were made to stop the convoy and
disband the caravan. More than 2,000 soldiers and police were deployed, along with immigration and
healthcare personnel. While Guatemala had sent back more than half of the caravan members a few
days later, smaller groups made it to and across the border with Mexico.2 Nonetheless, it can be
expected that migratory flows from Central America will continue and even increase in 2021, also in
form of migrant caravans. Their high visibility is likely to raise further public concern about irregular
migration in the U.S., which would put pressure on the new administration to take a harder stance on
migration. This could affect the proposed immigration reforms in the U.S. but also make it more
difficult to agree on better solutions for the many migrants and displaced in the LAC region.
4. Post-Covid-19 recovery in main regions of destination as an incentive
to migrate further abroad
Most migration in the LAC is intra-regional. The U.S. and, to a lesser but increasingly important extent,
Europe are the main destinations for LAC migrants further abroad. It is expected that the U.S. and
Europe will manage a faster rollout of their vaccination programmes than the LAC. This is likely to result
in faster economic recovery and increasing labour market demands. In conjunction with a lifting of
travel restrictions, this might encourage an increasing number of LAC citizens to try to reach these
destinations in both regular and irregular ways. The possibility, or impossibility, to migrate to high-
income countries might be less relevant in terms of absolute migration figures but will be highly
relevant in terms of migrant remittances and household incomes. A further decline in remittances
would worsen the living conditions for many people in LAC even more and subsequently increase the
potential for further emigration from the region.
5. Rise in xenophobia and anti-immigration discourse fuelled by
increasing inequality
Xenophobia toward migrants has been on the rise in many LAC countries. A study by Oxfam
International on perceptions of xenophobia and discrimination towards Venezuelan migrants in
Colombia, Ecuador and Peru, shows that there is a general understanding in the population for the
reasons that force Venezuelans to leave their country. However, the anti-immigrant discourse is
nourished by the fear of competition for jobs and an increase in crime. There is a strong perception
that migration does not benefit the national economy. Seven out of 10 people in these three countries
consider that immigration lowers salaries and negatively affects working conditions as well as associate
crimes with migration.3 Social networks and the mass media influence the construction of people’s
perceptions in relation to migration, and have been criticised for inciting xenophobia and labelling
migrants as criminals.
4
The LAC region is facing the biggest recession in the last century and struggling to accommodate the
large influx of migrants, in particular from Venezuela. According to the World Bank and International
Monetary Fund, extreme poverty and income inequality will increase due to the pandemic. This will
further fuel xenophobia and anti-immigration discourse. In this difficult regional context, more than
20 presidential, legislative, local or regional elections will be held in LAC countries in 2021. New
presidents will be elected in inter alia Chile, Ecuador, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica and Nicaragua. LAC
policymakers should be prepared to ensure a more balanced narrative on migration, recognising the
broader impact that this narrative can have on social cohesion, support for diversity, economic growth
and innovation. Chile, for instance, is developing a National Platform and Strategy to fight xenophobia
in local communities until the 2021 general elections take place in November.
5
1. Introduction
ICMPD’s Regional Migration Outlook presents a brief analysis of migration and policy trends in Latin
America and the Caribbean (LAC) and provides an outlook on developments and events to watch out
for in 2021. Thus, the outlook does not claim to foresee the future, nor to cover all relevant trends. It
seeks to use past experience and highlight what might happen and is important to consider.
In 2020, the stock of migrants of LAC origin reached 42.9 million, accounting for 15.3% of the world’s
migrant population. Compared with other regions, the share of international migrants in the total
population of LAC countries remains with less than 2% relatively low.4
Source: United Nations (UN) Department of Economic and Social Affairs
2. A migration year shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic
Migration in the LAC region cannot be explained by a single root cause. There are a number of main
drivers that influence size, direction and patterns of international migration flows more than others.
Such factors are the globalisation of economies, values and aspirations; changing technologies and
means of communication; shifting demographics; conflicts associated with organised crime and
gender-based violence; state fragility; food insecurity; family reunification; and climate change. These
drivers are embedded in ‘global opportunity structures’ that push decisions, and enact or prevent
individual migration projects. Global opportunity structures comprise geographical proximity or
distance; the density and capacity of migration control; entry and residence regulations; the existence
and capacities of migrant smuggling networks; the characteristics of asylum and protection systems;
job opportunities in formal and informal labour markets; the existence of family and social networks
and the degree of cooperation between States along migratory routes.
6Any regional migration outlook on an upcoming year will have to take into account these long-term
trends, and assess their potential development against the impact of short-term developments and
events. There is no doubt that the COVID-19 pandemic has not only caused a global health crisis of
historic dimensions, but also represents the event that has impacted international migration in 2020
more than any other, and will continue to shape migration in 2021 as well. The pandemic itself and the
subsequent containment measures in LAC countries have led to the deepest economic recession in
more than a century, placed enormous pressures on public health systems, disrupted food and supply
chains, and affected the entirety of established formal and informal channels for migration and
mobility in one way or another. In the final quarter of 2020, the first pharmaceutical producers
published highly promising results on the efficacy of their coronavirus vaccines. The news not only
implied the fastest ever response to a global health threat but also presented the often quoted “light
at the end of the tunnel”, the prospect that the world might leave behind an all-encompassing crisis in
the foreseeable future. The first weeks of 2021 saw the roll-out of the biggest vaccination programme
in history. However, three quarters of the first doses have been administered to citizens in only 10
countries worldwide. At a UN Security Council meeting in February 2021, Mexico called for countries
to stop hoarding vaccines.5 Due to the initial scarcity of certain vaccines, as well as delivery delays,
China and Russia are becoming major providers of COVID-19 vaccines to Latin America.
Notwithstanding the potential effects of this “vaccine diplomacy”, the challenges in administrating the
largest-ever vaccination programme will be immense and the path to recovery will be long,
cumbersome and, most probably, unequal among the countries in LAC.
The impact of COVID-19 on economy and migration in LAC
In February 2020, Brazil confirmed the first COVID-19 case in LAC. After registering relatively few cases
in the following weeks, Latin America quickly became a global COVID-19 hotspot. In July 2020, the
region accounted for more than 25% of cases worldwide and had the highest number of confirmed
cases globally. Border closures across LAC have reduced movements on existing migration routes and
from other continents. Entries by foreigners and nationals in Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic,
Jamaica, Mexico and Panama dropped between 58% and 67% compared to the previous year. The
number of migrants from outside LAC, mainly from Africa and Asia, who usually transit Costa Rica to
reach the United States of America (USA), decreased from 21,018 in 2019 to 4,777 in 2020.6 However,
since much of regional migration is involuntary or forced, and root causes and drivers have not
changed, this did not stop amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Around 900,000 Venezuelans left the country
in search of a better future in 2020. Several new migrant caravans departed from Honduras throughout
the year. Whether moving voluntarily or not, the coronavirus pandemic exacerbated vulnerabilities
and disproportionately affected migrants and their family members.
Economic fallout from the pandemic is significant in LAC. In the most recent assessment, the Economic
Commission for LAC estimates an economic decline of 7.7% in 2020.7 According to the International
Labour Organization (ILO), 50 million full-time jobs have been lost in the region. Women have been
more affected by employment loss than men, especially in Brazil, Colombia and Peru.8 Mobility
restrictions have led to a sharp decline in global tourism.
7This has had huge effects on LAC economies and societies, which largely depend on this sector. In
Barbados, The Bahamas and Jamaica, tourism contributes around 30-50% to the gross domestic
product (GDP). The pandemic will result in the deepest annual contraction of GDP in these Caribbean
countries in the last 45 years.9 High degrees of poverty; inequality and labour informality; limited fiscal
resources; 80% of the population living in urban areas; weak social protection and healthcare systems;
and limited testing and contact tracing are some of the structural factors that have led to the region’s
challenges in containing the pandemic, and will continue to generate difficulties for a sustainable and
inclusive recovery.10
One glimmer of hope for families and economies in some LAC countries is the continued solidarity of
communities abroad. The money sent by migrants to their home country contributed to the resilience
in facing the pandemic. Although global remittances are expected to contract 14% by the start of 2021
compared to figures before COVID-19, the LAC region has not been impacted as badly by the pandemic
as might have been expected. Remittances are projected to reach US$96 billion in 2020, a decline of
only 0.2% compared to 2019. This can be attributed to the fact that many migrants sending remittances
are based in the USA where 69% are employed in essential services11 and some migrants are also
eligible for stimulus programmes.
Source: Economic Commission for LAC
Data for Colombia, El Salvador and Guatemala refers to the period January and September 2020. Data for Bolivia, the
Dominican Republic, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua and Paraguay refers to the period January to August 2020. Data for Costa
Rica, Ecuador, Jamaica and Peru refers to the period January to June 2020.
8Nonetheless, the impact was not felt equally by all LAC countries: remittances to Guatemala, Mexico,
Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, and Jamaica registered positive year-on-year growth between 4% and
18%. El Salvador’s and Colombia’s remittance inflow stayed almost constant whereas Bolivia, Peru,
Paraguay, Ecuador and Costa Rica registered sharp declines from 10% to 26%.12 In 2021, remittances
could grow again with the opening up of economies, although intra-regional remittances might be
strongly affected by the economic downturn in LAC economies.
3. Focus countries
The situation in LAC is mainly shaped by migration-related developments in Central America, Haiti,
Mexico and Venezuela. This does not imply that other countries deserve less attention, but the major
migration movements will be linked to the individual situations in these countries also in 2021. While
the main regional migration drivers will not change, the actual dynamics will be highly influenced by
the further development of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic fallout of the crisis and the extent
to which containment measures, mobility restrictions and border controls impact migration
opportunity structures.
Venezuela
Venezuela’s socioeconomic and political situations continue to deteriorate at unprecedented rates.
Following the contraction of economic activity by around 65% between 2013 and 2019, the country's
GDP decreased by 25% in 2020 and is projected to fall another 10% in 2021.13 Already in 2018, 85% of
the population was living in extreme poverty. Food security is seriously compromised and prevalence
of undernourishment jumped to 31.4% in 2017-2019, due to a combination of the devaluation of the
national currency, hyperinflation and high dependence on imported food.14
The exact number of COVID-19 cases in Venezuela is unknown but, similar to other South American
countries, significant community spreading is assumed. The COVID-19 pandemic put additional
pressure on Venezuela’s collapsing health system, affected by shortages in medication and health
supplies, interruptions of basic utilities at healthcare facilities, and the mass emigration of doctors and
healthcare workers.15 More than 50% of medical professionals have left the country over the past five
years.16 The lockdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19 compromise the already scarce and
precarious livelihood opportunities in Venezuela.
The pandemic has further exacerbated the challenges faced by countries of transit and destination for
Venezuelan refugees and migrants, and tested countries’ ability to maintain an inclusive society.
Discrimination and xenophobic attacks against the migrant population are increasing in LAC, especially
in South American countries with high numbers of Venezuelan immigrants. In LAC countries with high
levels of economic informality, government measures decreed to curb the pandemic have substantially
affected Venezuelans migrants.
9Due to the lack of income opportunities, approximately 140,000 Venezuelans decided to return to
Venezuela, especially from neighbouring Brazil and Colombia. Despite this significant number of
returnees and travel restrictions, the total number of Venezuelan refugees and emigrants increased
worldwide by 20% from 4.5 million in 2019 to 5.4 million in 2020. The vast majority of Venezuelans
stayed within the region, with Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru hosting more than 93% of the
regional Venezuelan refugees and migrants.17 Absolute numbers in these five destinations increased
between 17% and 21% in 2020 compared to the previous year.
Source: Coordination Platform for Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela
Arrivals in the Caribbean sub-region are growing even faster (around 25%) from an estimated 150,000
Venezuelan refugees and migrants at the end of 2019 to around 195,500 in December 2020. Aruba,
Curaçao, the Dominican Republic, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago in particular continue to witness
Venezuelan arrivals. At the same time, Guyana receives also a significant number of Guyanese
descendants returning from Venezuela. The majority, an estimated 114,500 Venezuelans, reside in the
Dominican Republic.18 Also in LAC migrants and refugees are forced to undertake perilous journeys. In
December 2020, to quote only one example, during a tragic incident, more than 30 Venezuelans died,
after a boat carrying migrants towards Trinidad and Tobago sank.
Thus, displacement and emigration of Venezuelans is not limited to the region. Outside of LAC, the
USA (255,141) and Spain (202,859) are important destinations for Venezuelan migrants. Spain also
leads the number of recognised refugees from Venezuela with 57,481.19
10Despite visa-free access to the Schengen area, Venezuelans lodged far fewer asylum applications in EU
Member States (MS) compared with before the pandemic, presumably because travel restrictions for
third country nationals cut off access to EU territory. Applications dropped from 41,155 in 2019 to
29,522 in 2020.20 In Spain, where Venezuelans have ranked consistently among the top nationalities,
applications decreased by 30%, from 40,886 in 2019 to 28,365 in 2020.21
Source: European Asylum Support Office
At regional level, the International Technical Meeting on Human Mobility of Venezuelan Citizens in the
Region (Quito Process), with 13 MS from LAC, continued to promote communication and regional
coordination among host countries of Venezuelan refugees and migrants by focusing on the impact of
the COVID-19 pandemic. Under Chile’s pro tempore leadership in 2020, a Group of Friends of the Quito
Process was formally established with the objective to assist the Quito Process technically and
economically, as well as to help raise international awareness of the crisis. This group was formed by
Canada, the EU, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and the USA, and was joined more recently by France
and the Netherlands. In 2021, under the pro tempore presidency of Peru, the Quito Process will
address issues such as socio-economic inclusion, HIV/AIDS and COVID-19, with an emphasis on
vaccination and mental health, child protection, trafficking in human beings, smuggling of migrants,
and strengthening of regional cooperation.
11Mexico
The COVID-19 pandemic was a challenge for Mexico as a country of origin, transit and destination of
migrants. Due to border closures, many foreigners were unable to continue their journeys, regardless
of their destination. Consequently and although Mexico did not close its borders, many foreigners who
were in the country at the time of the health crisis were left stranded by measures adopted in other
countries, leaving many of them in conditions of vulnerability and fearing that they would find
themselves irregularly present in Mexico. Between 01 April and 03 June 2020, a total of 7,116
foreigners applied for regularised migrant status, including those whose 180-day period for finalising
regularisation under the Migrant Law had ended.22
Following the closure of US immigration courts in March 2020, it was also unclear how many asylum
seekers continued to wait for their hearing in Mexico. The signature of a migration collaboration
agreement between the USA and Mexican Governments in 2019 had included the expansion of the
Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP). The MPP implies that certain categories of asylum seekers arriving
at the US Southern border were sent back to Mexico, where they had to wait for their court hearings.
According to data from the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse Immigration Project, more
than 71,000 people are registered under the MPP in 2020, the vast majority originating from Latin
American countries. A total of 29,148 MPP cases were pending before the Immigration Court in January
2021.23 However, at the beginning of this year the new US administration announced the suspension
of new enrolments, a review of the programme and outlined steps to create a more humane asylum
system.
Source: Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse Immigration Project
12Demands for humanitarian protection have also been increasing in Mexico. Asylum applications have
doubled each year since 2017, reaching 71,230 in 2019. Despite border closures, 41,329 asylum
applications were lodged in Mexico in 2020. The six main countries of origin of applicants for refugee
status in Mexico were Honduras (15,440), Haiti (5,938), Cuba (5,752), El Salvador (4,020), Venezuela
(3,439) and Guatemala (2,993).24 It remains to be seen if the announcement of the US administration
to ensure access to legal avenues to the USA for Central American refugees and asylum seekers will
reduce the number of asylum applications in Mexico.
Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA)
Emigrants represent 6.7% of the total population in Guatemala, 8.2% in Honduras and 24.7% in El
Salvador.25 Since the early 1980s, mixed migration flows from the region to, in particular, the USA have
been fuelled by diverse and multidimensional root causes. These include weak state infrastructures,
inequality, and, despite a moderate reduction, high levels of poverty. Although the economies have
grown in the last years, there is still a lack of employment opportunities. In 2017, the labour force in
the region increased by more than 353,000 people, but fewer than 35,000 jobs were created in the
formal economy.26 In addition, insecurity has been one of the main push factors for migrants, especially
from El Salvador, as the NTCA has experienced since the mid-2000s an increase in insecurity linked to
transnational organised crime networks. This has translated itself into high homicide and extortion
rates in all three countries27 as well as high levels of gender-based violence. El Salvador, Honduras and
Guatemala ranked respectively 76th, 91st and 107th out of 167 countries on the Women’s Peace and
Security Index in 2019.28 Lastly, environmental degradation and phenomena such as the ‘Dry Corridor’–
an area characterised as a zone of high climatic risk causing persistent droughts – has accentuated
poverty as it has devastating effects on livelihoods dependent on agriculture and livestock.29 This
combination of factors, and the subsequent pull of family reunification and labour demand in the USA
has pushed many to seek better opportunities abroad, and due to the lack of legal migratory pathways
migration flows from the region have primarily been irregular.
The outbreak of the pandemic reduced intra-regional mobility due to the strict measures imposed by
all governments in Central and North America. As of August 2020, there was a 50.1% decrease in visas
issued by the USA for non-agricultural temporary workers, of which NCTA nationals are among the
primary recipients. However, NTCA nationals figured among the top six nationalities applying for
international protection in Mexico, and the USA issued a similar number of visas compared to 2019,
for temporary agricultural workers (where NCTA nationals are among the primary recipients).30 The
economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the structural drivers of migration prior to
2020. The economies of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are estimated to have contracted by
2.5, 8.0, and 8.6%31 in 2020 respectively. Additionally, in November 2020, Central America was hit by
hurricanes Eta and Iota which affected an estimated 5 million people and displaced an estimated
200,000 people across Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador. Livelihoods were severely affected
putting an added layer of pressure on the current health contingency and creating new challenges for
returned migrants.
13By the end of 2020, more than 350,000 people were in emergency shelters both in Guatemala and
Honduras. The impact of these natural disasters was a principal driver behind a new migrant caravan
departing from Honduras in December 2020.32
Taking into account these developments, but also the growing optimism based on the proposed
immigration reform by the new US administration, it is highly probable that north-bound migratory
flows from the NCTA will continue and even increase in 2021, even if movement restrictions are only
partially lifted. Deteriorating socio-economic conditions and the continued effects of sudden and slow-
onset climate change will continue to be key factors in individuals deciding to migrate. The recent
extension of the US Temporary Protected Status (TPS) immigration route for people coming from
disaster-struck countries, such as El Salvador and Honduras, might further solidify these plans.
Haiti
Haiti is one of the main countries of origin for migrants from the Caribbean, and migration flows from
the country have historically been complex, being driven primarily by political instability and economic
hardship, and at times exacerbated by natural disasters. An estimated 13% of the total population
(1,585,681) lives abroad, mainly in Canada, the Dominican Republic and the USA.33 Following an
earthquake in 2010, communities have established themselves also in Chile where they represent
12.5% of all foreigners (185,865)34 and Haitians have increasingly used the migratory corridor through
Central America to reach the USA. Furthermore, about 5.6% of all Haitians living abroad reside in the
EU,35 with the overwhelming majority (87,300) living in France where Haitian nationals represent the
largest group among migrants originally from the Americas.36
The COVID-19 pandemic and associated movement restrictions have slowed down migratory flows
outside of Haiti, and involuntary returns were halted during the first part of 2020. An estimated 30,000
Haitian nationals returned from the Dominican Republic due to the lack of access to employment
opportunities because of the restrictions. Overall, between March and November 2020, movements
observed on border crossing points from the Dominican Republic to Haiti vastly outnumbered those
from Haiti to the Dominican Republic (602,352 versus 389,645).37 However, COVID-19 also exacerbated
the socio-economic situation in the country, which was already fragile prior to 2020 due to the latest
political crisis ongoing since July 2018. The global health crisis has contributed to a further downturn
in the economic situation, with the GDP contracting by 3%,38 and has added pressure on remittances
from the diaspora, which accounted for 37.1% of the GDP in 2019.39 In order to support their relatives,
the diaspora increased its contributions by 20% in 2020, increasing from US$ 2.5 to 3 billion, despite
initial contrary predictions. The lack of economic opportunities, deterioration of the security situation,
and the escalation of the political crisis at the beginning of 2021 could increase the potential for
growing levels of labour and irregular migration from Haiti to the Dominican Republic and the USA, but
also to other destinations in the Caribbean, where Haitian communities are already established.
144. Migration trends in the region
In 2020, the stock of migrants of LAC origin amounted to 42.9 million. Women comprise 51.7% of all
international migrants in LAC. The share of women among migrants is the second highest compared
with other regions and confirms the growing feminisation of migration in LAC. Moreover, recent
estimates suggest that around one in five migrants in the region is a child or adolescent. In Central
America, 40% of international migrants are below the age of 20.40
Mexico is the largest emigration country in LAC (11.2 million), followed by Venezuela (5.4 million),
Colombia (3 million) and Brazil (1.9 million). However, Mexico’s share of all emigrants from the region
has declined from 36% in 2010 to 26% in 2020 due to a slow-down in people leaving the country.
The USA continues to play an important role as top destination, and is home to more than 67% of LAC’s
emigrants. Many Caribbean countries – such as Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica – have large
migrant populations in the USA, as do Latin American countries such as Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and Peru. While the share of migrants from LAC living in Europe is
relatively low at 12%,41 the total number has quadrupled since 1990,42 with Spain and Italy being the
main destination countries. LAC countries with the majority of emigrants in Europe are those such as
Suriname (52.7%) and Ecuador (45.3%).43
The number of immigrants in the LAC region has been increasing 2.5 times faster than the number of
emigrants between 2000 and 2019.44 In absolute numbers, Argentina and Colombia host the largest
foreign-born populations in the region. Several Caribbean islands with smaller populations have large
shares of immigrants, such as Antigua and Barbuda (30%), St. Kitts and Nevis (14.5%), Barbados (12.1%)
or Dominica (11.5%). In Costa Rica, migrants constitute 9% of the total population, making it one of
the highest percentage shares in Latin America.45
At the same time, inter-regional migration flows are of growing importance. More than 72% of
immigrants in LAC countries originate from within the region, mostly from neighbouring countries.
Paraguayan and Bolivian migration to Argentina, and Haitian migration to the Dominican Republic,
have long histories. Data published by the Chilean Institute for Statistics reveals that the number of
Peruvians living in the country increased from 7,500 to 235,165 between 1992 and 2019.46 More recent
migration flows include the emigration of Venezuelans, the worst displacement crisis in LAC in recent
history. Out of the 5.4 million Venezuelan migrants, refugees and asylum seekers in January 2021, 77%
stayed within the region. Most Venezuelan migrants have settled in urban areas, typically in large
metropolitan areas and border cities, contributing to increased housing overcrowding and shortage,
in a region where 24% of the urban population already lives in precarious settlements.47 Up to 500,000
Venezuelans live in just three Colombian cities: Bogota, Barranquilla and Cucuta. In Peru, close to
300,000 live in the Lima metropolitan area.48
15Migration has also been increasing in the South American sub-region in the past years due to the
Residence Agreement adopted by the Southern Common Market granting temporary residence and a
work permit of up to two years in another MS. Chile (+5%), Colombia (+3.4%), Peru (+3.2%), Guyana
(+2.9%) and Ecuador (+2%) have seen significant increases in the share of migrants in their total
population between 2015 and 2020.
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Migrant caravans
Besides the unprecedented migration from Venezuela, migrant caravans from Central America have
been one of the most visible migration flows in the region and received a lot of media attention
worldwide. While this phenomenon is not new and represents only a small fraction of migrants trying
to reach the USA, they have gained relevance due to their visibility and frequency. Between October
2018 and December 2020, around 20 caravans, mainly organised through social media, departed from
Central America. The vast majority of migrants joining caravans are from El Salvador, Guatemala and
Honduras. The journey from Central America through Mexico to the USA border is one of the most
dangerous in the world, and many migrants have disappeared, been kidnapped or been sexually
assaulted. It is estimated that as many as six in 10 female migrants experience sexual violence along
the route.49 In January 2021, several Guatemalan migrants were found shot dead and burnt near the
USA border.50 Caravans offer more protection for migrants and visibility on the dangerous route, and
at the same time help to avoid the high fees of coyotes or smugglers to cross borders.
16The former U.S. administration implemented a ‘zero tolerance’ policy and put pressure on Guatemala
and Mexico in particular to stop the caravans from advancing. In the last quarter of 2020, three migrant
caravans departed from San Pedro Sula in Honduras, despite travel restrictions. The widespread
damage caused by hurricanes Eta and Iota in November 2020 and some hopes for policy change and
immigration reform after the US elections were the main drivers for the formation of new caravans.
Mexico deployed additional military forces to its southern border and announced that migrants taking
part in the caravan would have to comply with the country’s COVID-19 regulations upon entry or would
face arrest and prosecution.51 All three caravans were dissolved at the border between Guatemala and
Honduras before reaching Mexico. Nevertheless, without addressing the underlying causes of
migration in the NTCA, the migrant caravans are expected to continue, regardless of the strict border
control policies implemented.
5. Migration policy developments
Developments in migration depend on structural factors embedded in specific regional contexts but
also on the respective policy responses that are implemented at the regional, national and local levels.
Over the last decade, migration has increasingly become a subject of intense policy debates in LAC.
While progress has been made in many migration policy areas, for instance regional cooperation,
refugee protection, tackling human trafficking networks, this section highlights two topics of particular
relevance that have also triggered significant developments in the regional migration policy debate:
environmental migration and social cohesion and inclusion of migrants.
At the same time, migration developments in LAC are highly influenced by policy developments outside
the region as such. The US is home to two thirds of LAC’s emigrants. The proposals for immigration
reform announced by the newly-elected government clearly would have an impact particularly on
migrants from LAC and will therefore be outlined in this chapter.
Environmental migration
LAC is highly exposed to the negative impacts of climate change, in terms of sudden onset events and
long-term processes.52 The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active on record and
confirmed the region’s vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change. Although the full effects
of climate change on international migration are still subject of broad debate among academic and
policy circles, the Central American Dry Corridor is one of the distinct cases where – in conjunction
with other causes – migration could be directly attributed to environmental factors.
LAC countries have moved forward in progressively incorporating environmental migration into their
policies and strategies. Most countries have integrated this issue in a cross-cutting manner, climate
migration emerging as an element in broader migration management tools.
17El Salvador, for instance, approved in 2019 the Special Law on Migration and Foreigners, giving the
Directorate General of Migration and Foreigners the capacity to admit persons who “it deems
appropriate for humanitarian reasons, in accordance with international human rights instruments”
(Article 104). It also allows the extension of tourist visas to persons “in cases of anthropogenic disaster,
epidemics, natural phenomena, humanitarian matters [...]” (Article 85).
Other States include environmental migration in climate or disaster risk management tools. Brazil and
Haiti even mention migration as a positive adaptation strategy to climate change in their disaster risk,
planning and climate frameworks.53 In this regard, it is worth mentioning the Regional Guidelines on
the Protection of Persons Displaced across Borders and Assistance to Migrants in the Context of
Disasters approved by the MS of the South American Conference on Migration in 2018.
Some less numerous countries have opted for the development of specific instruments dedicated to
environmental migration. For example, Peru’s climate change framework law of 2018 requests the
Executive Branch to issue an “action plan to prevent and attend to forced migration caused by the
effects of climate change, in order to avoid increasing pressure on urban infrastructure and services,
increasing the possibility of social conflicts and, among migrants themselves, the detriment of health,
education and social indicators”. The regulation of this 2019 law gives the Ministry of the Environment,
together with the Ministry of Women and Vulnerable Populations, the responsibility for the drafting
of the action plan.
It can be expected that the trend of mainstreaming environmental aspects into migration-related
policy responses will continue next year as well. The main challenges in 2021 and years to come include
policy coherence, synergy and coordination to reconcile the different angles adopted to tackle
environmental migration, as well as the operationalisation and implementation of the various adopted
policy documents.
Social cohesion, integration and inclusion of migrants
The stock of international migrants in the LAC region increased by 56% between 2015 and 2020. The
large-scale movements of migrants, especially from Venezuela, have meant new opportunities and
challenges for transit and destination countries and have impelled national and local governments to
revise and develop new policies. It has been necessary to rethink policies for admitting and granting
status to newcomers and for providing access to basic services such as education and health-care.54 As
emigration from Venezuela continues, the focus has turned from crisis management to providing long-
term solutions, as well as to the topic of social cohesion and inclusion. Indeed, the migrant population
that arrived in the last few years is likely to stay in the host countries for some time, as expressed by
94.8% of the Venezuelan migrants in Peru surveyed by the National Institute of Statistics and
Information in 2018.55
18Costa Rica was the first country in LAC to develop a National Integration Plan, and in 2015 established
a dedicated Directorate for Integration and Human Development with the main objective to provide
assistance to institutions eligible to benefit from the Social Migration Fund. This fund uses
administrative fees paid by migrants to support migration integration initiatives across government
institutions in relation to health, education, security and justice. Costa Rica’s second plan, covering the
period 2018-2022, was considered by the Organization of American States (OAS) as a good practice
that could be replicated by other countries in the region.56
As a result of major immigration reforms and the introduction of a new Migration Law (13.445/2017)
and Decree 9199/17, immigrants to Brazil enjoy more equal opportunities, including the right to
change employers; equal access to education and healthcare; and an unconditional path to permanent
residence. At the same time, many opportunities and challenges with regards to social cohesion and
inclusion of migrants rest largely with local communities. The city of São Paulo, for instance, has
launched its first Municipal Plan of Public Policies for Refugees and Migrants – a pioneering initiative
with refugee inclusion at its heart, set to be rolled out from 2021 to 2024.
In Chile, immigrants have particularly benefitted from improvements in the health sector. Access to
the national health system is free including for undocumented migrants.57 In 2020, Colombia initiated
the process of adopting the country’s first Comprehensive Migration Policy, addressing, inter alia, the
social, economic and cultural integration of migrant families.58
However, the rise of anti-immigrant attitudes in public opinion, as well as the additional layer of
complexity due to the COVID-19 pandemic, has limited the willingness of some countries in the region
to promote inclusion of migrants. Although immigrants in Argentina enjoy to some extent favourable
policies, greater barriers to equal opportunities seem to emerge, especially with regards to labour
market participation; education; political participation; and access to citizenship. In Mexico,
immigrants enjoy basic rights and long-term security, but they do not enjoy equal opportunities, with
significant obstacles in the area of education and political participation.59 Most countries preferred to
adopt targeted measures such as laws, provisions or decrees to meet the urgent needs linked to the
COVID-19 pandemic. Due to the saturation of several health systems, governments such as Argentina,
Chile and Peru have published decrees allowing health professionals with qualifications abroad to
practice their profession during the emergency.
The major repercussions of the pandemic will further solidify social cohesion and inclusion as a key
migration policy area in the years to come, which will have to be taken into account in an integral
manner at local, national and regional levels.
19Proposed reform of the United States Immigration System
The new US administration immediately took numerous steps to reform the immigration system and
reverse many of the previous administration’s policies. At the end of January 2021, new legislation was
sent to Congress to create a citizenship pathway for the circa 11 million undocumented immigrants
living in the country, including young undocumented immigrants brought to the USA as children. Up
to 8.1 million of the 11 million are from LAC and could be granted legal status (around 4.9 million
Mexicans, 1.5 million Central Americans, 775,000 South Americans and 475,000 from the Caribbean).
The Department of Homeland Security announced a halt to the deportation of certain undocumented
immigrants for a period of 100 days, as well as enrolment in the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP),
a programme that allowed the US to return asylum-seekers to Mexico for the duration of their asylum
hearings. Around 99% of MPP cases concern asylum seekers from LAC. At the same time, the state of
emergency at the Southern border was terminated and the border wall construction, as well as the
obligation of funds, was paused. In February 2021,the administration announced a series of new
actions, including the creation of a task force to reunite families (where parents had been deported to
their country of origin in Central America), promotion of integration of new Americans, the
development of a strategy to address irregular migration across the Southern border, as well as the
creation of a more humane asylum system. An increase in the refugee cap to 62,500 spots for the
current fiscal year and to 125,000 during the next fiscal year was proposed to Congress.
The proposed immigration reforms are very ambitious and would affect a large number of immigrants,
especially from LAC. It has to be seen if the proposed legislation, which has been presented as a top
priority for the first 100 days of the current presidency (to end of April 2021), can be approved within
the short time frame and fulfil the hopes of many migrants.
6. Conclusions
The migration year 2021 will be shaped by two sets of drivers. Firstly, there are the long-term drivers
related to conflict, economic imbalance, socio-economic development, demographic imbalance and
the environment. Secondly, there are the migration-related effects of the COVID-19 pandemic that
already saw their impacts last year and will linger on well into 2021.
A migration outlook for 2021 for LAC will have to assume that the previously observed drivers will
continue to increase the regional potential for international migration. As described in the various
segments of this outlook, inequality will continue to play a particular role in LAC. The region is
particularly impacted by COVID-19 because of the economic challenges, deep inequalities and high
levels of insecurity that had already existed before the pandemic. The Center for Global Development
recently estimated that the number of poor people in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico could
increase by more than 25 million, and income inequality by 2 to 4 percentage points.60
20The COVID-19 pandemic hit migrants and vulnerable populations particularly hard. In addition to the
loss of human lives, migrants disproportionally often faced health hazards, and had to cope with
mobility restrictions and lost income opportunities. The unequal access to coronavirus vaccines among
the world’s regions and within LAC has resulted in uneven paths to economic recovery. This trend is
likely to continue in 2021, implying increased migration pressures as well. The pandemic will not bring
an end to migration, also not in the LAC. On the contrary, it will further aggravate the global and
regional economic imbalances and will increase the pressure on people to migrate in search of a decent
living or a better future.
211
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(RMRP) 2021. Access: 25 February 2021. https://r4v.info/es/documents/download/82927
2
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migrantes-haitianas-en-el 38 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (2021). Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2020. Access: 19 February 2021.https://www.cepal.org/en/publications/46504- preliminary-overview-economies-latin-america-and-caribbean-2020 39 Migration Data Portal. Remittances. Access: 20 January 2021. https://migrationdataportal.org/themes/remittances 40 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2020). International Migrant Stock 2020. 41 Pew Research Center (2019). Latin America, Caribbean no longer world’s fastest growing source of international migrants. Access: January 18, 2021. https://pewrsr.ch/2sHU6bL 42 International Organization for Migration (2020). World Migration Report 2020. 43 European Diaspora Facility (EUDiF). Diaspora engagement map. Access: 03 February 2021 https://diasporafordevelopment.eu/interactive-map/ 44 United Nations Development Programme (2020). El potencial de la migración en América Latina y el Caribe. Access: January 29, 2021. https://www.undp.org/content/undp/es/home/blog/2020/harnessing-the-potential- of-migration-in-latin-america-and-the-c.html 45 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2020). International Migrant Stock 2020. 46 Census 1992 data: https://redatam-ine.ine.cl/redbin/RpWebEngine.exe/Portal?BASE=CENSO_1992&lang=esp Data for 2019: Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas de Chile (12 March 2020). Según estimaciones, la cantidad de personas extranjeras residentes habituales en Chile bordea los 1,5 millones al 31 de diciembre de 2019. Access: 15 February 2021 https://www.ine.cl/prensa/2020/03/12/según-estimaciones-la-cantidad-de-personas-extranjeras-residentes- habituales-en-chile-bordea-los-1-5-millones-al-31-de-diciembre-de-2019 47 United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development (2015) Habitat III 22 - Asentamientos informales. New York. 48 P. Zambrano-Barragán, S. Ramírez Hernández, L.F. Freier et al. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 on Venezuelan migrants’ access to health: A qualitative study in Colombian and Peruvian cities, Journal of Migration and Health Volume 3. Access: 20 January 2021. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmh.2020.100029 49 Amnesty International (2010). Invisible victims. Migrants on the move in Mexico. Access: 16 February 2021. https://www.amnesty.org/download/Documents/36000/amr410142010eng.pdf 50 ABC News (31 January 2021). Mexico confirms at least 2 Guatemalan migrants among 19 dead. Access: 16 February 2021. https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/mexico-confirms-guatemalan-migrants-19- dead-75588055 51 Mixed Migration Centre (2021). Quarterly Mixed Migration Update Latin America and the Carribean, Quarter 4 2020. Access: 13 February 2021 https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/qmmu-q4-2020-lac.pdf 52 Pablo Escribano (2020). Policy Approaches to Climate Migration: Lessons From Latin America and the Caribbean. Foreign Policy Essay in Lawfare. Access: 15 February 2021. https://www.lawfareblog.com/policy-approaches-climate-migration-lessons-latin-america-and-caribbean 53 Ibid. 54 Migration Policy Institute (2020). Venezuelan Migrants and Refugees in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Regional Profile. Access: 16 January 2021. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/publications/mpi- iom_venezuelan-profile_english-final.pdf 55 Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (2019). Condiciones de vida de la población venezolana que reside en Perú. Encuesta dirigida a la población venezolana que reside en el país (ENPOVE 2018), Access: 13 January 2021. https://data2.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/70521 56 The National Integration Plan 2018-2022 was developed with support of the MIgration EU eXpertise initiative, funded by the EU and implemented by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development. 57 Migration Integration Policy Index 2020. Key findings for Brazil (2019) and Chile (2019) Access: 13 February 2021 https://www.mipex.eu/ 24 58 El Tiempo (28 October 2020). Colombia tendría una política integral migratoria por primera vez. Entrevista con
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