IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION - Tim Canan, AICP Planning Data and Research Program Director Reston Task Force ...
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IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN THE NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION Tim Canan, AICP Planning Data and Research Program Director Reston Task Force May 10, 2021
About COG
• Metropolitan Washington Council of
Governments (COG) is an
independent, nonprofit association
of local governments
• Brings area leaders together to
address major regional issues in
the District of Columbia, suburban
Maryland and Northern Virginia
• Membership comprises 300 elected
officials from 22 local governments,
the Maryland and Virginia state
legislatures, and U.S. Congress
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
2
About TPB
• National Capital Region
Transportation Planning Board
(TPB) is the federally-designated
Metropolitan Planning
Organization (MPO) for the region
• Plays an important role as the
regional forum for transportation
planning
• Prepares plans and programs that
the federal government must
approve for federal-aid
transportation funds to flow to
metropolitan Washington
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
3COVID Cases & Deaths in
Washington, DC Metro Area
New York Times Cases & Deaths Tracker: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-cases-deaths-tracker.html#USA-
MSA47900. The Times uses reports from state, county and regional health departments.
March 1 Update: Over several days, Virginia added many deaths that occurred earlier in 2021.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
4Non-Farm Jobs (000s) - Washington MSA
March 2019 to March 2021
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, Not Seasonally-adjusted, Thousands)
3,500
3,322.6
3,336.0
3,250 3,147.8
3,000
2,965.1
2,750
2,500
2,250
Revised BLS data show the region lost 370,900 jobs between March and April of
2020. As of March 2021, 182,700 jobs have been added during our partial reopening.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
5Unemployment Rate
Washington MSA and US
16.0%
14.4%
14.0% 13.0%
12.0% 11.2%
10.5%
10.0%
9.4% 8.5% 7.7%
8.0% 8.7% 8.7% 8.4% 6.8%
7.8% 6.6% 6.4% 6.5% 6.6% 6.2%
6.0% 6.9% 6.4% 6.5%
6.4% 6.0% 5.8%
4.5% 5.6%
4.0%
2.0% 3.2%
0.0%
Jul-20
Sep-20
Mar-20
Nov-20
Mar-21
Apr-20
Jan-21
Jun-20
Aug-20
May-20
Oct-20
Feb-21
Dec-20
US Washington MSA
Our unemployment rate nearly tripled with the onset of the pandemic but was still
nearly 5 points below the nation. With partial reopening, the national and local rates did
converge in late 2020, but the local rate so far in 2021 is again below the national rate.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
6Over-the-year Job Change By Sector
March 2021 vs March 2020
Washington MSA (Thousands)
[Federal] 5.1
Government -8.6
Other Services -19.0
[Accommodation and Food Services] -74.8
Leisure & Hospitality -87.3
Educational & Health Services -27.0
Professional & Business Services -13.0
Financial Activites -7.5
Information -4.7
[Retail] -11.8
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities -17.0
Mining, Logging, & Construction -3.5
Manufacturing -0.6
-140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20
The most-current employment data shows job losses to be in hospitality, retail,
and several service industry sectors.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
7Non-Farm Job Loss March to April 2020
In 10 Largest MSAs
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Revised Data 3/21)
San
Houston Atlanta Washington Francisco Dallas Boston Philadelphia Chicago Los Angeles New York
0
-200
-400 -343.400 -367.300 -370.900 -372.000
-405.800
-453.600 -471.300
-600
-585.500
(Thousands of Jobs)
-800
-1,000
-961.500
-1,200
-1,400
-1,600
-1,800
-1,810.300
-2,000
Our initial job losses were among the lowest when compared to many of our peer
regions. New York and Los Angeles experienced the most severe losses.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
8Change in Office Vacancy Rates
Q1 2020 vs Q1 2021
(Source: CoStar)
District of
Columbia
Q1 2020
Suburban Q1 2021
Maryland
Northern
Virginia
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Office vacancy rates have increased slightly throughout the region. Office leases
are for longer-term periods and will be monitored for changes.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
9Change in Retail Vacancy Rates
Q1 2020 vs Q1 2021
(Source: CoStar)
District of
Columbia
Suburban Q1 2020
Maryland Q1 2021
Northern
Virginia
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Retail vacancy rates have also increased slightly throughout the region. Retail
space is very susceptible to COVID-related closures and will also be monitored.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
10Air Travel
2019 and 2020 Monthly Enplanements
at Washington/Baltimore Regional Airports
4,000
Enplanements in Thousands
3,200
2,400
1,600
800
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: COG
2019 2020
Air travel has recovered somewhat at the region’s three major airports since
April 2020 but remains much lower than 2019.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
11Worksite Operations
Some shut
All worksites down/reduced
shut operation,
down/reduced 15%
operation,
81%
All worksites
remained
open/employees
on site, 4%
Source: Commuter Connections 2020 Employer Telework Survey
96% of Worksites Shut Down or Reduced On-site Operation Either
Completely (81%) or Partially (15%) Since Coronavirus Pandemic
Began
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
12Change in Daily Travel Since March 2020
Two-thirds of
respondents report their
6%
9% daily travel habits have
changed a lot since the
beginning of the COVID-
19% 19 pandemic.
Source: COG/TPB “2020 Voices of the Region Survey,” 2021.
66%
A lot Some A little None
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
13Roadway Traffic Volumes: Region
TPB Region - Monthly Average Percent Change from
Equivalent 2019 Month
January, 3.8%
February, 2.4%
March, -21.9%
April, -50.5%
May, -37.5%
June, -25.5%
July, -19.8%
August, -19.2%
September, -18.5%
October, -17.3%
November, -18.2%
December, -20.4%
Source: COG/TPB
Regional traffic volumes, which in April 2020 had dipped below 50% of 2019
volumes, had recovered to over 80% of 2019 volumes by July, and continued a
slow recovery through October 2020. Volumes, however, decreased once again
region-wide in November and again in December 2020.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
14Metrorail and Metrobus Ridership
WMATA Regional Bus Ridership Workshop, November 17, 2020. COVID Ridership Trends, Diane Patterson.
Ridership decreased as a result of both reduced demand and reduced transit
capacity, underscoring the complex interrelationship of supply and demand on
transit. This contrasts to roadway volume decreases, which resulted from
demand reductions.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
15Preferences of Current Teleworkers
If given the choice to return to a work location
once the COVID-19 pandemic is over, would
you prefer to…?
9%
Return to work location
full-time
26%
Telework full-time
65%
Telework some days
and commute to work
location some days
Source: COG/TPB “2020 Voices of the Region Survey,” 2021.
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
May 10, 2021
16Considerations
• How will teleworking influence land use development and travel
patterns in the region?
• How will housing demand, including location, be influenced?
• Will the fundamental social and economic structure of the region’s
economy undergo change?
• What transportation investments are needed to meet demands of a
new normal AND meet ongoing demands of essential workers and
elements of the region that will go unchanged?
• How does the region balance the critical need to respond to new
short-term realities after the pandemic while continuing to make
long-term land use and transportation decisions for our
communities?
Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the National Capital Region
17
May 10, 2021Timothy Canan, AICP TPB Planning Data and Research Program Director (202) 962-3280 tcanan@mwcog.org mwcog.org Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments 777 North Capitol Street NE, Suite 300 Washington, DC 20002
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