Sustainable Aviation Fuel and its impact - Place and crop your image here and send to back - Aireg
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Sustainable
Place and crop your
Aviation Fuel and image here and send to back
its impact
Thorsten Lange | Executive Vice President, Neste
2
Aviation is the 2nd largest source of transport emissions
> 3% Double CO2
Aviation industry Global air travel Stakeholders
responsible Is expected are committed
for 2-3% of global to double in to lowering their
GHG the next carbon and
emissions today 15 years emissions footprint
3.5 Non-CO2-
Climate Impact
3
Annual net global CO2 emissions
The CO2 effect
300 Gt CO2 Budget, you do the math!
Global CO2 emission
300gt CO2 budget (1.5 degree target)
from Jan. 2021
Current global level of CO2
40gt CO2 emissions per year
Source: IPCC (2018) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C°, October 2018
4 The climate effect Non-CO2 Emissions – Short term mitigation possible Large short term mitigation potential from avoiding contrails and CiC Source: Dahlmann, Schumann, et al.
5
What does
“hard to abate” mean?
Departing flights & CO2 emissions (2020)
Flight distances
> 4000 km
1500 – 4000 km
500 - 1500 km
0 - 500 km
Source: EUROCONTROL
What can we,
as an industry,
do together?
Creating a healthier
planet for our
Neste is the #1 producer of
children
Renewable Diesel &
Sustainable Aviation Fuel
made from wastes and
residues
In 2020, our customers
reduced 10.0 Mt, aiming for
20.0 Mt in 2030 greenhouse
gas emissions with our
renewable products
6
7
Our climate
commitments
Handprint
Neste to reduce customers’ greenhouse
gas emissions with its renewable and
circular solutions by at least 20 million
tons CO2e annually by 2030
Footprint
2000x
Neste to reach carbon neutral this effort
production* by 2035 is needed
* Scope 1 & 2
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Available drop-in solution Greenhouse gas emission Reduction of non-CO2
reduction effects
• Compatible with existing jet engines
and fuel supply infrastructure • In neat form, reducing GHG emissions • Burns clean, reducing local
up to 80% compared to fossil fuels emissions
• Commercially available and in use over the lifecycle
• Additional climate benefits through
• Used in blends up to 50% • Produced 100% from renewable reduced particulate emissions
wastes and residues raw materials (non-CO2 effects of aviation may
have equal or higher climate
• Direct in-sector emission reduction, impact than carbon emissions1)
unlike offsets
¹ EASA Final Report: Updated analysis of the non-CO2 climate impacts of aviation and potential policy measures
pursuant to the EU Emissions Trading System Directive Article 30(4), November 2020
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SAF supply chain from raw materials to airplane
Renewables refinery
Waste & residue
Blending Airport Refueller /
terminal storage hydrant
Crude oil Fossil
refinery
Source: EUROCONTROL
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Global SAF production capacity outlook (Mt)
Announced HEFA SAF production
Near term SAF capacity Additional potential for HEFA SAF
is almost all HEFA, (based on 46% yield assumption)
Alcohol-to-jet SAF
dependent on lipid Gasification/FT SAF
feedstocks Total
Demand certainty for SAF can drive new
investments for additional capacity in
addition to pipeline in place
Source: World Economic Forum & McKinsey & Company,
Clean Skies for Tomorrow Insight report, November 202011
Wide feedstock acceptance is critical for ensuring that
ambitious SAF scale up targets are achievable (in Mt)
Lipids in REDII Annex
IX, Part A (POME, CTO)
Lipids in REDII
Annex IX, Part B
(AF Cat 1 & 2, UCO)
Oil Cover crops
(70) Mt in 2030
Other industrial
wastes and residues Oil trees on
(AF Cat 3, Acid oils, etc.) degraded land (85)
Sources: Neste estimates, World Economic Forum estimates12
Neste’s SAF capacity will grow
to 1.5 million tonnes in 2023
And will continue to expand with new technologies
Technical potential
3 “unlimited”
Power-to-liquids
Potential exceeds
2 global jet fuel use
(CO2 capture)
Technologies close to commercialization
Up to 10% of global
1 jet fuel use (35 Mton)
(municipal solid waste, lignocellulosic, etc.)
Neste SAF scale up
HEFA1 • Current: 100 kton/a in Porvoo
(waste and residue oils • 2023: 1 Mton/a in Singapore (under construction)
• 2023: 450 kton/a in Rotterdam (feasibility study on-going)
and fats as raw materials) • SAF capacity included in future renewable refineries
Source: WorldSource: Neste estimates. 1 HEFA = Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids
Economic Forum & McKinsey & Company, Clean Skies for Tomorrow Insight report, November 202013
SAF will remain more expensive than fossil jet fuel,
prices will come down as technologies mature
Development of production costs of SAF and comparison to fossil jet fuel
HEFA
G/FT
AtJ
PTLImpact on fares - your call The influence on ticket prices is moderate: SAF blend: 5% 14% 30% Helsinki - Singapore + €12 + €33 + €71 Helsinki - Munich + €3 + €9 + €20 Helsinki - Stockholm + €1 + €4 + €8
15 Conclusions Availability Climate Contribute Urgency to act HEFA based SAF is For the climate, biofuels are Ticket price increase is SAF will remain more commercially immediately most effective when used in reasonable. Aviation will expensive than fossil fuel, available. Eligibility of all aviation due to the reduction continue to contribute to making regulatory measures sustainable feedstocks is of also the non-CO2 effects. connectivity and productivity. necessary. crucial.
17
SAF potential
Reducing
SAF Production
both CO2 Sustainable
technical capacity
and non- feedstocks
feasibility existing and
CO2 climate available
proven ramping up
effects18
Sufficient bio-feedstock potential Up to 120% of
estimated
Estimated SAF
potential 490
global jet fuel Mt in total in
for substituting fossil jet fuel demand of 410 2030
Mt in 2030
Power-to-liquids will bring unlimited additional potential as the technology matures
1200
In mid 2020’s, Gasification+synthesis and ATJ
1000 Immediately available HEFA technologies will mature. Together with HEFA,
technology based on zero ILUC they have the potential of substituting all fossil
lipids can replace 20% of jet fuel jet fuel
800
600
400
200
0
Waste & residue lipids Oil trees on degraded Oil-cover crops CategCellulosic cover Agricultural residues Forestry residues Wood-processing Municipal solid waste
land cropsorie 4 waste
Practical feedstock availability in 2030, Mt/year
Starting around 2030, industrial volumes of
Power-to-Liquids (CO2) Unlimited PtL can become available
Source: World Economic Forum & McKinsey & Company, Clean Skies for Tomorrow Insight report, November 202019
Regulatory treatment and availability of the HEFA feedstocks
Category RED II CORSIA
(Ref. to Figure 1 above) (Availability: WEF and Neste estimates)
1 Annex IX Part A Partly specifically included. None are excluded
Waste and residue lipids 2.7 Mt/a and individual LCA values allowed since zero
ILUC
40 Mt/a
Annex IX Part B Specifically included.
10.3 Mt/a Zero ILUC assigned
Outside of Annex IX Partly specifically included. None are excluded
29.2 Mt/a and individual LCA values allowed since zero
ILUC
2 Not included in any category, but similar with Included in the “Low land use change (LUC)
Oil trees on degraded land “Low ILUC Risk Biofuels” definition RED II Art. risk practices” category. Zero ILUC assigned.
2(37) (Temporary rules, to be updated)
85 Mt/a
3 Included in the “Intermediate Crops” definition Included in the “Low land use change (LUC)
Oil Cover Crops RED II Art. 2(40) risk practices” category. Zero ILUC assigned.
70 Mt/a 70 Mt/a (Temporary rules, to be updated)You can also read
