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Science for Environment Policy
IN-DEPTH REPORT
Sustainable Food
A recipe for food security and
environmental protection?
November 2013
Issue 8
Environment
Science for Environment Policy This In-depth Report is written and edited by the Science
Communication Unit, University of the West of England
Sustainable Food
(UWE), Bristol
Email: sfep.editorial@uwe.ac.uk
Contents To cite this publication:
Science Communication Unit, University of the West of
England, Bristol (2013). Science for Environment Policy In-depth
Report: Sustainable food. Report produced for the European
Executive summary 3 Commission DG Environment, November 2013. Available at:
http://ec.europa.eu/science-environment-policy
Introduction 5
1 Food production: drivers and pressures 5
Images
2 The solutions for a sustainable food future 13 Page 3: © istockphoto.com/Jasmina007
3 Policy and knowledge gaps 20
4 Arguments for immediate action 23
References 24
Corrigenda About Science for Environment Policy
This version of the report, published in September 2015, replaces the earlier version published in Science for Environment Policy is a free news
November 2013. Following consideration of comments received, elements of the text have been and information service published by the European
modified as follows: Commission’s Directorate-General Environment,
which provides the latest environmental policy-
Section 1.2.6 Biofuel production relevant research findings.
The following references have been added to support information provided in the report:
ECOFYS et al., (2012), JRC-IPTS (2010), Laborde (2011), In-depth Reports are a feature of the service
Locke and Henley (2014), Searchinger et al. (2013). which provide comprehensive overviews of
scientific research relevant to a specific policy
Information on the European Commission’s proposal to limit the share of food-based biofuels has area. In addition to In-depth Reports, Science
also been amended to detract the suggestion that this policy had been implemented. for Environment Policy also publishes a weekly
News Alert which is delivered by email to
The following references have been removed to refocus this section on more recent research subscribers and provides accessible summaries
findings: of key scientific studies.
Field, C., Campbell, J.E., & Lobell, D.B. (2008), Ogg, C.W. (2008) http://ec.europa.eu/science-environment-policy
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S U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Sustainable food: a recipe for food security
and environmental protection?
The world is facing food security and nutrition challenges on an unprecedented scale. One in eight of the world’s population
is undernourished, yet paradoxically, an even higher number are classified as overweight. Recent food price rises have pushed
millions of the poorest people on the planet into famine, whilst causing civil unrest and poverty in a number of middle- and
high-income countries. In addition, research has demonstrated the negative effect our current food production has on the
environment. The adoption of ‘sustainable’ food systems, which can ensure ‘nutritional security’ without sacrificing the long-
term health of the ecosystems, cultures and communities providing our food, may provide an answer.
A wide range of drivers and pressures are placing a heavy Agricultural practices deplete natural resources such as
burden on our current food production methods. For land, water and biodiversity at alarming rates and pose
example, in less than 40 years’ time, it is predicted that a threat to food production. Agriculture occupies nearly
the world’s population will have grown by over two 40% of the Earth’s land surfaces and soil erosion and
billion people – taking the population from seven to nine degradation are major concerns in both low- and high-
billion by 2050. Food demand is therefore expected to income countries. It is estimated that 25-35% of the
rise by at least 70% worldwide. Increased urbanisation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced globally every
the planet will also bring its own pressures on our food year are associated with the food system and the heavy use
system, as the numbers of individuals working and living of freshwater places a severe stress on water supplies.
off the land will reduce and changes to consumption
patterns will occur. Climate change, augmented by global warming, will also
have dramatic effects on crops in the future as floods,
Changing dietary patterns, particularly in emerging temperature fluctuations and droughts threaten yields
economies, as a result of increased urbanisation, leads to and are predicted to increase malnutrition figures. Added
an increase in demand for meat and dairy products and to this, future biofuel production will compete for land
will have serious consequences for the competition for for food production, affecting the availability of food
natural resources. crops and food prices.
S U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
4
The food we produce is wasted on an incredible level. Estimates are communication used with the internet, can give useful information
that a third to a half of all food produced is thrown away, which on weather patterns and market pricing to farmers. However, more
equates to 1.2-2 billion tonnes of food; in developing countries this integration of these technologies is needed, as well as an understanding
is largely due to post-harvest losses, whilst in developed countries a of how these sustainable agriculture ‘decision support tools’ can be
large proportion of food is wasted in the home. Experts have called for used to meet the needs of farmers.
a global initiative to reduce food waste, which is thought to be one of
the areas that can be most easily tackled to improve the sustainability The use of genetically modified (GM) organisms in agriculture
of our food system and may allow us to rethink our need for more is seen as a potential solution to helping feed the planet. However,
intense production methods. Embedded in this is a need for a better global standards for cultivation and commercialisation of GM crops
understanding of consumer behaviour and a greater understanding of should be set to prevent trade disruptions and the use of GM crops
changing consumption patterns. As countries develop, there is a shift requires public engagement and fully informed societal debates.
away from cereals and grains to the consumption of animal-based Closing resource loops has also been suggested as an important way to
products. An increased consumption of meat is linked with significant reduce waste, as well as energy and resource use, by producing valuable
health issues and negative environmental impacts; the livestock sector products from food industry by-products through new scientific and
is responsible for large areas of land use, water contamination and technological methods.
GHG emissions.
Smallholders are key to tackling the problems of global food insecurity
Closing yield gaps, i.e. ensuring maximum yield on all available and investment in farming is therefore critical. Women in particular,
land, alongside ‘agro-ecological’ farming practices, which ensure soil who make up 43% of the agricultural labour force in developing
health and water availability with reduced fertiliser use, are ways to countries, should be helped to close the ‘gender gap’ that is imposing
improve the amount of food we produce in a more sustainable way. high costs on the agricultural sector.
Conservation agriculture can also produce resilient systems that
There is a general consensus that governments need to take a more
enhance productivity whilst contributing to the cultural and socio-
active role in food and agriculture. Good governance should drive
economic viability of rural areas.
strategies to improve land degradation, water rights and food pricing,
Due to depletion of fish stocks, capture fisheries are unlikely to including extension services connecting scientists with farmers.
be able to contribute to meeting the increasing demand for fish. New alliances need to be formed between business, civil society and
Aquaculture expansion will therefore be necessary. Worldwide, 40% governments to drive a sustainable food future. Within the EU there
of fish production comes from aquaculture, compared with about is still a lack of policy on the ‘demand’ side of food production. In
20% in Europe, but as this figure grows, there will be environmental addition, current waste policy does not address the rising level of food
consequences linked to energy use, pollution and feed requirements. waste, in terms of both how to reduce waste and how to deal with
Gains in sustainability could come from concentrating on lower– current waste levels. Suggested policy options include changes to food
trophic level species, such as those that feed on plants, and by date labels and targeted awareness campaigns. Success at the EU level
integrating aquatic and terrestrial food production. will be of value to guide policy changes in emerging economies and
experts in food policy have called for international efforts to clarify
Researchers are beginning to understand how science and technology ‘sustainable’ diets and formulate policy measures. To address the
can play an important role in helping to improve yields and agricultural unprecedented challenges that lie ahead, the food system needs radical
productivity, particularly in developing countries. Satellite-based change and action should occur on all levels.
remote monitoring technologies, as well as mobile phone and wireless
S U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
5
Introduction
to produce food in the same way as we have done historically.
For the first time in history, the world is facing food security and Substantial scientific evidence has highlighted the negative effect our
nutrition challenges that stretch across the entire globe. Despite current food production has on the environment. Added to this, between a
food production levels being high enough to feed every person on the third and a half of all food produced globally never reaches our plates,
planet, the most recent estimates are that approximately 870 million creating colossal levels of food waste, which signal that ‘business as
people are undernourished, 825 million of whom live in developing usual’ is no longer a viable option (IME, 2013; IAASTD, 2009; UN,
countries. This figure represents 12.5% of the global population or one 2012). Therefore, embodied within the UN’s global initiatives are
in eight people: levels that, although decreasing in recent years, are still the ideas of ‘sustainable’ food systems, which can ensure ‘nutritional
unacceptably high (FAO, 2012). security’ without sacrificing the long-term health of ecosystems and the
cultures and communities that provide our food.
Food price rises, in particular, are felt across the globe, hitting
developing countries the hardest as millions of the poorest people on In this Science for Environment Policy In-depth Report, we look at how
the planet are pushed into famine. However, civil unrest, rioting and ‘sustainable food’ production can offer new possibilities to meet the
poverty are also witnessed in middle- and high-income countries as a food security and nutritional challenges facing the global community.
result of spikes in food prices. Obesity is now a major pandemic across The report begins by analysing the drivers and pressures that challenge
the globe, with an estimated one billion of the world’s population our current global food production system, such as population growth,
overweight. This brings new challenges in keeping populations healthy, environmental damage, resource depletion and climate change. It then
as they struggle with disease such as diabetes, heart disease and certain summarises and collates the vast range of solutions that researchers and
cancers linked to ‘westernised’ diets. experts in the fields of agriculture and development have proposed to
ensure that the nutritional needs of the world’s population are met,
Global initiatives, such as the UN’s Millennium Development Goals whilst making sure the environment and local communities are not
and ‘Zero Hunger’ challenge launched at Rio+20 in 2012, are working harmed in the process. In order to inform future policy and research,
towards achieving ‘nutritional security’ to significantly reduce the any gaps in our knowledge are highlighted at the end of the report.
number of people suffering from hunger. However, to feed all the
mouths on the planet, it is now recognised that we cannot continue
1. Food production: drivers and pressures
1.1 Population growth and increased
demand for food
By the middle of this century, it is predicted that the global population
will have grown by over two billion people. This means we will move
from a planet that that is home to seven billion to one accommodating
over nine billion by 2050 (UN, 2011). This giant leap in numbers
in less than 40 years will place an enormous strain on the world’s
resources. Most population increases will occur in low- and middle-
income countries. For example, Africa’s population is expected to
double from one to two billion by 2050 (UN, 2011) when the region
will consume 31% of the world’s calories (compared to 9% today)
(Searchinger, 2013). Exact figures of population growth are hard to
predict, although by 2050 the population may begin to plateau. Future
population figures depend on a range of factors that include gross
domestic product (GDP) growth, educational attainment, access to Figure 1: Estimated world population growth to 2100. Projected global
contraception and gender equality. The extent of female education will totals (solid lines) and regional differences (coloured bands) for population
also be a critical factor (Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming, size. Individual coloured bands indicate the contribution of each region to
the difference between global scenarios. Source: O’Neill et al, (2010).
2011).
Population growth will be combined with other societal changes as,
particularly in low- and middle-income countries, people are expected by 70% worldwide (FAO, 2009a). Other studies have estimated the
to become wealthier, with three times more per capita income (FAO, figures to be much higher than this, with demand for food calories
2011a). The knock-on effect of this is that people are expected to and protein both predicted to increase by 100–110% (IFAD, 2010).
consume more than twice as much food as they do today (Clay, 2011). A more recent estimate is provided by Searchinger (2013), who
Thus, with population growth and a growing middle class, it has been suggests that global food production needs to increase by 63% from
estimated that by 2050 there could be an increase in demand for food 2006–2050.
S U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
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At present, the population of developing countries is more rural than
urban (3.1 billion people or 55% of the population). However, the
numbers of people moving from rural areas to cities will increase in
the future. According to some predictions, between 2020 and 2025,
the total rural population will peak and then start to decline with the
developing world’s urban population overtaking its rural population
(IFAD, 2010). This shift in living patterns will have important
implications for future food production and demand as the numbers
of individuals working and living directly off the land will be reduced
and consumption patterns linked to urban, industrialised lifestyles will
become more prevalent (Guyomard et al., 2012).
1.2 Threats to the environment and
natural resources
The production and consumption of food uses more natural resources
than any other human activity. The growing depletion of our natural
resources, such as land, water and biodiversity, poses a serious threat
to food production (OECD, 2011), especially if we were to increase
production to reach the amounts in line with the demand scenarios set
out in Section 1.1. In the next section, we therefore take a detailed look
at the effects of agriculture on the environment.
1.2.1 Current and future land use
The large-scale conversion of existing land for agriculture is an
unwise choice, due to its detrimental effects on the environment
(The Government Office for Science, 2011). However, expansion of
cultivated areas seems unlikely to slow. Conservative estimates reveal Figure 2: Potential side effects of differing agricultural technologies and
that globally, every year, approximately six million hectares of land practices (Source: the Royal Society, 2009).
are converted from natural state to crop land (Deininger et al., 2011),
lost in the past 150 years. This problem is most intense in developing
although recent estimates suggest that total arable land is projected to
countries (Bai et al., 2008). Analysts suggest that Africa has been losing
increase by only 69 million hectares (less than 5%) by 2050 (OECD-
1% of its soil organic matter every year since the 1960s, a decline that
FAO, 2012). A large proportion of the world’s surface has now been
is the greatest in the world. This not only lowers productivity and yield,
affected by agriculture; cropland and permanent pasture cover an
but causes an inefficient use of inputs, such as fertilisers and water
estimated 12% and 26% of ice-free land, respectively. Altogether,
(Verhulst et al., 2010).
agriculture occupies about 38% of Earth’s terrestrial surface, the
largest use of land on the planet (Foley et al., 2011). Furthermore, it However, severe land degradation is not limited to developing countries.
is estimated that, worldwide, 70% of land suitable for growing food is In Europe, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that in
already in use (40% in the EU) (Giovanucci et al., 2012). the coming decades we may lose up to 25% of food production due to
environmental breakdown (UNEP, 2009). The restoration of degraded
It is now understood that one of the major ways that food production
agricultural land is therefore seen as an alternative to land conversion,
contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is through land
which can boost food supply and target international investment
conversion, particularly of forests. Forests and wetlands provide a
development (Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming, 2011).
range of what are known as ‘ecosystem services’, examples of which
include climate and air quality regulation, water regulation, erosion 1.2.2 Biodiversity loss
regulation and water purification. While some biodiversity can be
The use of land for food production affects the ecosystems and habitats
maintained on land that is used for food production, a very significant
supporting a range of species. For example, agriculture is by far the
fraction, especially in the tropics, requires relatively undisturbed
leading cause of deforestation in the tropics (Geist & Lambin, 2002)
non-agricultural habitats. For these reasons the conversion of forests,
and has already replaced around 70% of the world’s grasslands, 50%
natural grasslands and wetlands to agricultural land can be justified
of savannahs and 45% of temperate deciduous forest (Ramankutty et
only in exceptional circumstances. (Foresight. The Future of Food and
al., 2008). This mass destruction of habitats leads to the extinction of
Farming, 2011).
species and considerable biodiversity loss (Krebs et al., 1999; Green
Agriculture also damages productive land through soil erosion and et al., 2005; FAO, 2010a). A study by Kleijn et al. (2009), which
degradation (Verhulst et al., 2010). The use of conventional techniques measured the relationship between biodiversity and land use intensity,
that involve extensive tillage, especially when combined with removal found clear evidence that plant species richness declined with increasing
or in situ burning of crop residues, means that up to half of the world’s land use intensity. In fact, it has been estimated that three quarters of
topsoil, containing most of the carbon used for plant growth, has been the world’s plant genetic material has disappeared, mostly a result of
S U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
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Figure 3: Allocation of cropland area to different uses in 2000 (Source: Foley et al., 2011).
habitat destruction (FAO, 2004), in which food production plays a manure. These arise from feed production and from land conversion,
major part. The consequence is that many plants that may turn out for example, where land is converted from forest into pasture and from
to be useful to society (i.e. that can generate medicines or produce pasture into arable land (Westhoek et al., 2011).
hardier species) are lost. Ironically, agriculture can destroy the very
biodiversity it needs to increase and sustain food production levels and The amount of GHGs released during food production varies among
nutritional diversity. For example, it affects the genetic diversity of soil food types and across regions. Within livestock, ruminants, such
organisms that regulate the soil ecosystem, including decomposition of as cows, produce significant amounts of methane when compared
litter and cycling of nutrients, such as nitrogen. Loss of biodiversity is with monogastrics, such as chickens, while crop production and
also correlated with a loss of pollinators and natural pest control agents distribution systems that involve growing under heated glass, air-
(Nellemann et al., 2009). freighting or refrigerated distribution are particularly energy intensive.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) from soils is the main source of GHG emissions
Genetic variation in crops is vital for agricultural development; from industrialised nations, as well as in Africa and most of Asia,
however, crop genetic diversity has declined steeply in recent decades. while methane (CH4) emissions from livestock dominate from Central
In India, for example, 30,000 rice varieties were once grown, yet now and South America, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Pacific
most acreage is covered by around ten high-yielding varieties (The (Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming, 2011).
Royal Society, 2009). This genetic uniformity may lead to decreased
resilience in the face of environmental stress and leaves us with less The EU’s ambitious goal to reduce emissions by 20% by 2020 (taking
variety to develop new breeding traits. The preservation of genetic 1990 as the base level) will therefore not be achieved without changes
diversity in ‘genebanks’ is therefore recognised as important, hence to food production and consumption playing an important part.
the work of independent organisations such as the Global Crop However, at the global level, substantial increases in GHG emissions
Diversity Trust. from agriculture are highly likely in the decades ahead (Foresight.
The Future of Food and Farming, 2011). Climate-related changes
1.2.3 The impacts of climate change to agriculture are already being recorded around the world (Morton,
2007, Ringler et al., 2010).
A substantial proportion of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions
are generated by global food production. It is estimated that 25-35% Future predictions are that agriculture and human wellbeing will
of the GHG emissions produced globally every year can be attributed be negatively affected by climate change, particularly in developing
to the food sector (three quarters of which stem from low- and middle- countries. Uncertainties regarding the effects of climate change, such
income countries). At least 31% of the EU’s GHG emissions are as floods, temperature fluctuation, and drought are a major threat to
thought to be associated with the food system (EC, 2006). agricultural production and food security. According to a study by the
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), crop yields will
The production and application of nitrogen fertilisers is the most
decline in certain regions, production will be affected, crop and meat
important contributor of agriculture to GHG emissions. Livestock
prices will increase, and consumption of cereals will fall, leading to
production is the second most important cause, and is responsible for
reduced calorie intake and increased child malnutrition. In developing
around 12% of global GHG emissions stemming from animals and
countries, climate change is likely to cause yield declines for the most
S U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
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of climate change up until 2050 are ‘manageable’ if investments in land
and water productivity enhancements are made.
1.2.4 The intensive use of fertilisers
The discovery of the ‘Haber–Bosch’ process for the mass production
of fertilisers initiated ‘industrial’ agriculture at the turn of the 20th
Century, with the synthesis of ammonia. This method provided a
synthetic way of producing large quantities of nitrogen that could be
taken up by plants to increase growth, which alongside phosphorus
(phosphate) and potassium, is crucial to increasing global crop yields.
Without the input of nitrogen fertilisers, it is estimated that only about
half of the current global population can be supplied with sufficient
food energy and protein (Erisman et al., 2008; Dawson & Hilton,
2011).
However, nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphate are often
unaffordable and/or unavailable in the developing world (The Royal
Society, 2009). Fertiliser use would boost yields in some countries,
but be counterproductive in others (particularly those, such as China,
where fertiliser use is subsidised, but there is substantial runoff and
subsequent environmental problems). Globally, however, there is little
prospect of a big rise in fertiliser application owing to the expense:
prices spiked even more dramatically than food prices in 2007-08. In
particular, phosphorus prices have soared, as a consequence of reports
that rock phosphate supplies are limited (Cordell, et al., 2009; The
Economist, 2011).
In addition, there are serious environmental implications of heavy
fertiliser use. High energy costs and use of fossil fuels for nitrogen
fertiliser production (the Haber–Bosch process currently uses hydrogen
from natural gas) means that synthetic nitrogen fixation could demand
2% of total global energy utilisation by 2050 (Glendining et al., 2009).
Figure 4: A photographic impression of the gradual changes in two ecosystem Furthermore, the runoff of nitrogen rich compounds from the soil into
types (landscape level) from highly natural ecosystems (90–100% mean water sources leads to a loss of terrestrial biodiversity, as well as the
abundance of the original species) to highly cultivated or deteriorated ‘eutrophication’ of inland and coastal surface waters, subsequently
ecosystems (around 10% mean abundance of the original species). Locally, harming aquatic life. GHGs are also released as a result of fertiliser
this indicator can be perceived as a measure of naturalness, or conversely, of
application in a process called ‘denitrification’, for example, methane
human-impact (Source: UNEP, 2009).
is emitted by ammonium-based fertilisers and N2O by nitrogen-based
fertilisers.
important crops, so that by 2050 yields will be lower than 2000 levels
Achieving the same yield increases but with less added synthetic
(IFPRI, 2009).
nitrogen is a an avenue of future research. Biological nitrogen fixation
Experts have predicted that climate change will threaten the availability (primarily by Rhizobium species, such as peas) and recycling through
of resources, such as water, soils and biodiversity, and will drive major green manures, composts and animal manure, have been suggested as
spatial shifts in the production of important commercial crops (IPCC, ways to reduce our reliance on synthetic nitrogen and prevent nitrogen
2007). The Middle East and North Africa will face drier winters, losses to water and non-agricultural ecosystems.
diminishing freshwater runoff and dwindling groundwater resources
as the century progresses. Changing environmental conditions are 1.2.5 Threatened water supplies
likely to increase pressure on traditional livelihoods, such as farming It is estimated that agriculture is responsible for around 70% of
and fishing, rendering them unsustainable in the worst-affected areas global freshwater withdrawals for irrigation and livestock production
(IPCC, 2007). In China, the authorities estimate that 150 million (Foley, 2011; Postel, 2011; The World Bank, 2013), with estimates
people will eventually need to be relocated from agricultural areas that that one litre of water is needed to produce one calorie of food (Clay,
are being slowly engulfed by deserts. These ‘eco refugees’ (Watts, 2009) 2011). Agriculture uses most of our available freshwater, and, in many
will face severe water shortages as a result of changes caused by future countries, the extraction rate is exceeding the natural replacement rate
climate change and will no longer be able to use the land they live (The Economist, 2010). In some arid regions of the world, several major
on to produce food. The adoption of ‘climate resistant’ agricultural non-renewable aquifers are being depleted and cannot be replenished,
practices, such as a mix of crops, may help to mitigate the effects of i.e. in the Punjab, Egypt, Libya and Australia (Foresight. The Future of
climate change. According to experts at IFPRI (2010a), the challenges Food and Farming, 2011). A recent analysis of 405 river basins around
the world (Hoekstra et al. 2012) found that there was severe water
S U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
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Figure 5: Projected impacts of climate change (Source: Nellemann et al., 2009).
scarcity (during at least one month of the year) in 201 basins serving fuelled by policies to support alternatives to fossil fuels to reduce the
2.67 billion inhabitants. According to a study by Van den Berg et al., greenhouse gas impact of transport and reduce dependency on oil,
(2011), the increase in the numbers living in so-called ‘severely stressed which is increasingly scarce (FAO, 2008b).
water basins’ will increase from 1.6 billion to 3.9 billion by 2050.
The magnitude of the impacts on food security is subject to much
Water scarcity and droughts are possibly the biggest cause of crop yield debate: estimates vary according to methods used and assumptions
reduction. The effects on livestock can also be devastating: in the last 30 made, and the published data on the amount of land allocated to
years, droughts have killed off around 60% of the national herds in six biofuels projects display large discrepancies. Modelling research
African countries, triggering mass migrations and starvation (Nellemann indicates that rising demand for biofuels increases global food prices,
et al., 2009). According to some estimates, by 2030, it is estimated that but evidence is not yet robust enough to say to what extent an increase
45% more water will be needed for agriculture (The Economist, 2011). in biofuel production threatens food security. Most studies agree that
increasing biofuels production increases land conversion rates.
Experts also estimate that by 2050, 52% of the world’s population will
be at risk of water stress (IFPRI, 2013). This prediction does not fit In an oft-cited study, Searchinger et al. (2008) calculated that US
well alongside estimates of the substantial amounts of water it takes to ethanol’s demand for crops would be at the expense of crops for
produce some of the foods we take for granted every day. For example, food, and that new land would be needed to meet this demand. Their
according to the Water Footprint Network (2013), a single hamburger calculations at the time estimated that corn would be diverted from
can take 2,240 litres of water to produce and serve. 12.8 million hectares of US cropland in order to reach the 2016
projected levels for ethanol (56 billion litres). This would encourage
other countries to increase crop production and cause land, including
1.2.6 Biofuel production
rainforest and peatlands, to be converted for agricultural use. The
Research shows that, to date, biofuel production has affected the GHG emissions from this conversion of land to agriculture could
availability of food crops and the price of foods, and this will continue create a ‘biofuel carbon debt’ by releasing 17 to 420 times more CO2
in the future (The World Bank, 2008a; OECD-FAO, 2008). The than the annual GHG reductions that these biofuels would provide by
rapid rise in demand and production for biofuels (Figure 6) has been saving fossil fuels, the study estimated.S U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
10
Laborde (2011) estimated that the increase in biofuels that would allow
the EU to meet the EU 10% renewable energy target for transport fuel
by 2020 would lead to an increase in global cropland area by 1.73-
1.87 million hectares, compared to 2008. For comparison, this an area
equivalent in size to one-tenth of the total amount of arable land in
France or 60% of the total area of Belgium.
Laborde calculated that the GHG emissions produced by the associated
land-use change to meet the 10% target would amount to 495 to 516
million tons of CO2 over 20 years. These would negate more than
two thirds of the direct GHG emission savings made by using biofuels
in place of fossil fuels in the EU. ECOFYS (2012) looked back at
the impact of the increase in European demand for biofuels feedstock
on food prices between 2007 and 2010. They concluded that world
wheat and coarse grain prices increased by 1-2% and non-cereal food
commodities, such as vegetable oil, by 4% in response to the EU’s
expanding use of biofuels.
Looking to the future, JRC-IPTS (2010) estimated the impacts of EU
biofuels policy on EU crop prices using several models. The size of the
impact varies according to the model and assumptions used, but across
all analyses conducted in the study, biofuels increased food commodity
prices. For example, one analysis, which assumed a 7% share of biofuels Figure 6: The increase in biodiesel and ethanol production. (Source:
in transport fuels in the EU in 2020, predicted that vegetable oils would Nellemann et al., 2009).
cost 32.2% more than if biofuels only made up 3.7% of transport fuels.
et al. (2007), the expansion of crop production due to the increased
Sugar would be 21% more costly under the same scenario. A second
use of food for biofuels will occur largely at the expense of natural
analysis, which assumed an 8.5% share of biofuels by 2020, projected
forest and pastureland. Much of this land, will be found in Africa and
that vegetable oils and cereals would cost 27.1% and 10.2% more,
Central and South America, and also, to a lesser extent, in the US,
respectively, compared to a scenario with only a 3% biofuel share.
Mexico, Australia and New Zealand, reflecting the superior biomass
productivity of tropical regions. China and India, on the other hand,
In 2010, biofuel programmes were estimated to amount to £20
due to their immense food demand and already lower availability of
billion (€23 billion) a year worldwide and to double by 2020, heavily
land suitable for agriculture, are not found to be regions supporting
concentrated in Brazil, the US and the EU (IEA, 2010). In order for
significant expansion of cropland.
first generation biofuels to supply 10% of the global transport fuel
demand by 2030, estimates were that approximately 118 to 508
The European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED) currently
million hectares of land would be required, which would equal an area
sets a target of 10% for the share of renewable energy in transport fuel.
of 8% to 36% of current global cropland (Nellemann et al., 2009).
The large majority of this is expected to be in the form of biofuels. To
encourage the development of so-called ‘second generation’ biofuels
Meeting such a 10 percent global goal in 2050 would generate less than
and help minimise the conversion of land for biofuel production, the
2 percent of the world’s delivered energy on a net basis but would require
European Commission has proposed a 5% limit on the share of food-
32 percent of the energy contained in all global crops produced in 2010.
based (‘first-generation’) biofuels that can be counted towards this target
(EC, 2012).
Furthermore, meeting a broader bioenergy goal endorsed by the
International Energy Agency — to produce 20 percent of world energy
Second-generation biofuels, produced using technologies that convert
from biomass — would require a level of biomass equivalent not merely
lignocellulosic biomass (e.g. non-edible parts of plants, like agricultural
to all global crop production in 2000, but to the total harvest of crops,
residues and wood) or are produced from microalgae, can help to
grasses, crop residues, and trees as well. Some potential exists to use
reduce the pressure on the use of food crops for fuel. However, they
various forms of waste biomass for bioenergy, which would avoid some
still rely, in part, on productive land and water resources that are in
competition with food, carbon, and ecosystems. Giving up the use of
limited supply (Timilsina & Strestha, 2010).
crop-based biofuels for transportation — a strategy more in line with
a sustainable food future —would close the crop calorie gap (between
To avoid land use conflicts, degraded, ‘marginal’ and abandoned land
2006 and 2050) by roughly 14 percent (Searchinger et al., 2013).
may be used for biofuel production. However, many of these lands
are ill-suited for agriculture by definition, typically lacking water
Since biofuels originate mainly from agricultural feedstock, they are
and nutrients, and they often harbour considerable biodiversity.
expected to consume a growing share of the global production of
Nevertheless, some marginal lands can be improved and brought
sugarcane (34%), vegetable oil (16%), and coarse grains (14%) by
efficiently into production, including for perennial grasses and trees,
2021 (OECD-FAO, 2012). This raises the question of where the land
which may serve as second generation biofuel feedstock (Timilsina &
for additional crop production will come from. According to Gurgel
Strestha, 2010).S U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
11
Figure 7: FAO’s expected livestock consumption estimates by region (Sources: Searchinger, T. et al. 2013; Alexandratos and Bruinsma., 2012.).
1.3 Changing dietary patterns to increase by almost 70% between 2000 and 2030 and by another
20% between 2030 and 2050. Total global consumption of milk is
A shift in dietary patterns as a result of increased urbanisation to expected to increase by over 50% between 2000 and 2030, and by
foods based more heavily on meat, dairy and processed foods (high another 20% between 2030 and 2050. According to the FAO, for
in sugar, salt and fats and low in fruit, vegetable and whole grains) nine billion people to reach current western consumption levels,
are driving a reassessment of our current food systems (Kearney, the global production of animal proteins would have to triple
2010; Guyomard, et al., 2012). Eating patterns worldwide are (FAO, 2006).
evolving to follow the trends of so-called ‘westernised’ diets, as In high income countries, consumption is now reaching a plateau,
more people move to cities and less people live and work on the but it is uncertain whether consumption of meat in major emerging
land. Food products in cities are increasingly sold in supermarkets economies, such as Brazil and China, will stabilise at UK or US
and eaten away from home, driving the demand for more levels. For example, in East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, annual
processed, sophisticated and ready-to-eat products. The result of per capita meat consumption by weight is projected to increase
these changing production and dietary habits is that obesity is by 55% and 42% respectively through to 2030, whereas in fully-
prevalent in low- and middle-income families and is linked to a industrialised countries, including those in Europe and North
range of health issues. Globally, around 35% of adults, over the America, the projected increase is only 14% (WHO, 2013b).
age of 20, are overweight and 12% are classified as obese: these Major increases in meat consumption, particularly grain fed meat,
conditions are linked to 44% of diabetes, 23% of ischaemic heart will have serious implications for competition for land, water and
disease and 7–41% of certain cancers (WHO, 2013a). other resources and will affect the sustainability of future food
One of the most significant future changes to dietary habits is production.
the increased global consumption of meat and dairy products. Around 10% of the EU’s GHG emissions are caused by livestock
Different studies predict increases in per capita meat consumption production (Westhoek et al., 2011) and the large areas of land
from 32kg to 52kg by 2050 (Foresight. The Future of Food and needed for grassland and feed production are an important cause
Farming, 2011). The total global consumption of meat is expected of biodiversity loss. In the EU, about two thirds of the totalS U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
12
Figure 8: The drivers and consequences of food consumption changes with economic development (Source: Kearney, 2010).
agricultural area is used to rear livestock and approximately 75% issues. In developing countries, as demand for meat consumption
of the protein-rich feed for livestock in the EU is imported, mainly rises, a transition is expected from traditional feeding systems to
from Brazil and Argentina, where large areas of land are needed ‘confined animal feeding operations’ (agricultural operations where
for its production. It is often argued that livestock production animals are kept in confined situations), which raise questions
is a very efficient way of transforming products not suitable for about resource use and manure management, as well as animal
human consumption, such as grass and by-products, into high- welfare.
value products such as dairy and meat. However, according to
researchers at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 1.4 Rising food prices and food security
it can be argued that this is only true to a limited extent. It is issues
estimated that only 4% of dairy production and around 20% of
beef production is connected to feed that comes from ‘high nature Food security is achieved when all people, at all times, have physical
value’ grasslands (i.e. grasslands of high conservation value that are and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets
minimally farmed). Most of the grass in the EU originates from their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy
intensively managed grasslands, with boosted yields from fertiliser life (FAO, 2008a). Food security is not an issue for developing
countries alone, however. Paradoxically, in the US, the majority of
application. Moreover, some of the grasslands are temporary
the population is overweight and a third is obese (Flegal et al., 2010),
grasslands, on land that could also be used for crop production
yet 15% of the US population is classed as food-insecure (Coleman-
(Westhoek et al., 2011).
Jensen et al., 2011). Higher food prices and increased volatility in
The conversion of plant energy and proteins into edible animal our food supplies have threatened food security across the globe and
products is generally an inefficient use of resources. This can this pattern seems to be set for the future. The 2007/8 food crisis,
be illustrated by the fact that for each EU citizen, almost three which saw the price of wheat and rice doubling in two months, gives
kilograms of feed is consumed by EU livestock every day, 0.8 us some indication of the pressures that affect food security (IFPRI,
kilograms of which is cereals and 0.8 kilograms is grass. This 2010b), which included rising oil prices, an increase in biofuels
feed is converted into 0.1 kilograms of meat and 0.8 kilograms of demand and trade anomalies, such as export restrictions and panic
purchases.
milk (Westhoek et al., 2011). Animal husbandry is also associated
with several ethical issues, but improving animal welfare generally Urgent actions needed to prevent a new crisis, according to IFPRI,
leads to higher feed requirements and higher emission levels, thus include five steps:
implying a trade-off between animal welfare and environmentalS U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
13
1. China and India, the large grain production countries, to release comprehensive account of the principles underlying sustainable food
their strategic reserves (grains stored for strategic considerations i.e. production:
to regulate prices and in anticipation of major interruptions in
supply).
“The principle of sustainability implies the use of resources at rates that do
2. For governments to make sure that poorer citizens are protected if not exceed the capacity of the earth to replace them. Thus water is consumed
prices rise.
in water basins at rates that can be replenished by inflows and rainfall,
3. To improve smallholder productivity and link them to internal and greenhouse gas emissions are balanced by carbon fixation and storage,
external markets and technological inputs.
soil degradation and biodiversity loss are halted, and pollutants do not
4. To set up global grain reserves that can be released in a crisis1. accumulate in the environment. Capture fisheries and other renewable
resources are not depleted beyond their capacity to recover. Sustainability
5. To establish an international working group that can monitor
trends in the markets and analyse data to plan strategies for the also extends to financial and human capital; food production and
future. economic growth must create sufficient wealth to maintain a viable and
healthy workforce, and skills must be transmitted to future generations of
(Adapted from Fan, 2010)
producers. Sustainability also entails resilience, such that the food system,
The benefits of global food price rises for farmers with access to including its human and organisational components, is robust to transitory
markets are positive. However, for consumers, (particularly in low- shocks and stresses. In the short to medium term non-renewable inputs will
income countries) the effects can be devastating. Many of those classed continue to be used, but to achieve sustainability the profits from their use
as being in extreme poverty spend nearly 70% of their income on food should be invested in the development of renewable resources.”
and those on the borderline of food insecurity are sensitive to even
small food price increases, meaning the number of undernourished (Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming, 2011).
people, currently 1 billion, could double or even triple (Giovanucci et
al., 2012). High food prices have led to destabilisation and civil unrest The 2012 UN Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20)
in a number of Middle Eastern and African countries, good examples threw the spotlight onto sustainable agricultural and food security,
of which are Syria and Libya (Femia & Werrell, 2013). Sternberg highlighting the many barriers still to be overcome to reach the goal of
(2013) defines the idea of ‘hazard globalization’ where a once-in-a- ‘sustainable food’. The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021
century winter drought in China in 2010/2011 ‘reduced global wheat report (2012) predicts that, based on their greater potential to increase
supply and contributed to global wheat shortages and skyrocketing bread land devoted to agriculture and to improve productivity, developing
prices in Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer. Government legitimacy countries will provide the main source of global food production
and civil society in Egypt were upset by protests that focused on poverty, growth to 2021. Annual production growth in developing countries is
bread, and political discontent’ (Sternberg, 2013). Increasing incomes projected to average 1.9% per annum compared to 1.2% per annum
and access to food are seen to be preferred solutions than keeping food in developed countries, so interventions to improve the sustainability
prices artificially low with price controls and restrictions. of production in developing countries is critical. However, as we
look at the possible solutions available to achieve food security,
‘Sustainable food’ production is a way of producing a continuous
coupled with environmental protection, we begin to understand
supply of safe, nutritious food for future generations that ensures
how food production is an interconnected system spanning countries
the environment is protected, alongside maintaining a reasonable
and continents. The issues of food production are therefore global,
income for the farmers and communities that produce our food. The
requiring solutions at the global level.
following quote from the UK Government’s Foresight Report gives a
1. Although there are costs involved, large international grain reserves controlled jointly by national governments to mitigate global food supply crises would economise on stocks
and storage costs (Wright, 2009). However, building a resilient and effective grain reserve is not easy as reserves have to operate in varied social, political, geographical and
economic contexts. Patterns of land distribution, dietary choices, transport and storage infrastructure within a country, as well its connection to neighbours and world markets,
are all factors that need to be taken into account. Reserves depend on transparent and accountable governance and a good partnership with the private sector (Sampson, 2012).
2. Solutions for a sustainable food future
2.1 Managing food waste 1.2-2 billion tonnes of food produced around the world never makes
it on to a plate (IME, 2013). In the UK, as much as 30% of vegetable
Food waste is defined by the UK Government’s Foresight report crops are not harvested due to their failure to meet retailers’ exacting
(Foresight. The Future of Food and Farming, 2011) as “edible material standards on physical appearance, according to the report, while up to
intended for human consumption that is discarded, lost, degraded or half of the food that is bought in Europe and the US is thrown away
consumed by pests as food travels from harvest to consumer. This includes by consumers.
food fit for human consumption but intentionally used as animal feed, and
spans the entire food supply chain.” An EU study identified the key causes of waste in the manufacturing,
wholesale/retail, food service and households sectors (BIO Intelligence
A 2013 report from the Institute of Mechanical Engineers ‘Global Service, 2010). In the manufacturing sector, waste is created from
Food; Waste Not, Want Not’ found that between 30% and 50% or unavoidable sources, such as carcasses and bones, alongside technicalS U S T A I N A B L E F O O D
14
malfunctions, such as overproduction, misshapen products, product be lost after harvest to pests and spoilage (Nellemann et al., 2009).
and packaging damage. In the retail/wholesale sector, waste is generated Traditional technologies, such as storage drums in Afghanistan have
by supply chain inefficiencies and through stock management issues, proven to substantially reduce post-harvest waste (Clay, 2011).
including difficulties anticipating demand. In the household sector, According to Godfray (2010), “improved technology for small-scale
food waste comes from meal preparation, leftovers and purchased food food storage in poorer contexts is a prime candidate for the introduction
not used in time. of state incentives for private innovation, with the involvement of small-
scale traders, millers, and producers.”
The alarming statistics show that, every year, consumers in rich
countries waste almost as much food (222 million tonnes) as the In high-income countries, reducing waste from the consumer and
entire net production of food in Sub-Saharan Africa (230 million the food service sector are realistic strategies. According to research,
tonnes) (FAO, 2011c). The world’s nearly one billion hungry people 42% of all EU food waste comes from households and 60% of this is
could be fed on less than a quarter of the food that is wasted in the avoidable (BIO Intelligence Service, 2012). The ‘packaging paradox’
US and Europe (Stuart, 2009). According to Clay (2011), if we could is that, in developing countries, food waste at production stage
eliminate current waste levels, we would halve the amount of extra could be reduced by availability of packaging, whereas in the UK,
food needed by 2050, thus allowing us to rethink the argument for over quarter of food wastes is still in its original packaging. More
more intense production methods and changes to land management. efforts to minimise food and packaging waste in the EU are therefore
However, if no measures are taken to reduce food waste in the EU, needed. Campaigns to highlight the extent of waste can be useful and
based on anticipated EU population growth and increasing affluence there are a number of waste reduction schemes across the EU (BIO
only, food waste is expected to rise to approximately 126 million Intelligence Service, 2010). A good example of this is shown in the
tonnes in 2020, compared to 89 million tonnes in 2006 (BIO UK with the ‘Love Food Hate Waste’ campaign, which since 2007,
Intelligence Service, 2010). has reduced food waste by over 1.1 million tonnes a year, preventing
over £2.5 billion worth of food being wasted (WRAP, 2013).
Experts have recommended that a global initiative should be launched
to reduce food waste as it may be the single most important area that Companies in the food supply chain and institutions providing meals
can be addressed with relative ease (Giovanucci et al., 2012). One should all be involved in waste reduction schemes. Other strategies
way is to make the food chain more efficient through waste reduction include the revision of best-before dates and the use of cheap
measures at all stages, from loss at farms to transport, processing sensor technology to measure foil spoilage. Consumers can play
and retail and consumer levels. Good governance is needed to help an important role in the success of these new technologies as they
with this, which will in turn contribute to other policy agendas, place high importance on the health and safety aspects of their food
such as cutting the need for further space set aside for landfill, in (Giovanucci et al., 2012). The recycling of surplus food in Europe is
turn reducing GHG emissions (Foresight. The Future of Food and another option, a good example of which is ‘FareShare’, a national
Farming, 2011). Price signals that reflect the costs and benefits to UK charity that helps to redistribute food surpluses.
society of different forms of agriculture have also been proposed
as the best way to achieve the ‘seismic shifts’ needed to encourage Closing resource loops has also been suggested as an important way
consumers towards sustainable agriculture and food systems. to reduce waste, as well as energy and resource use (BIO Intelligence
Service, 2012), by producing valuable products from food industry
In fact, the UK’s Foresight report claims that there is evidence by-products through new scientific and technological methods. The
that halving the amount of food waste by 2050 is a realistic target. different ways of using by-products from food processing industry
In wealthier countries, much of the losses occur at the retail and can be mainly classified into five categories: as a source of food/feed
consumer levels, while in poorer countries this is due to inadequate ingredients; a carbon source for growing useful microorganisms;
post-harvesting technologies and lack of adequate infrastructure, as a fertiliser through composting; as a source for direct energy
including areas such as processing, storage and preservation. generation/biogas production; and as a source for high value-added
Different strategies are therefore required to tackle these two types products (BIO Intelligence Service, 2012).
of waste. In developing countries, public investment in transport
infrastructure would reduce the opportunities for spoilage, whereas 2.2 Rethinking land management and
better-functioning markets and the availability of capital would agricultural techniques
increase the efficiency of the food chain, for example, by allowing the
introduction of cold storage (although this does have implications for According to estimates from the International Maize and Wheat
GHG emissions). Existing technologies and best practices need to be Improvement Centre, to keep prices stable and have enough food to
shared by education and extension services, and market and finance meet demand, the growth in rice yields will have to increase by about
mechanisms are required to protect farmers from having to sell at half, from just under 1% a year to 1.5%. Maize yields will have to rise
peak supply, leading to gluts and wastage (Foresight. The future of by the same amount; and wheat yields will have to more than double,
food and farming, 2011). to 2.3% a year (The Economist, 2011). Agricultural production
in general needs to increase by 60% over the next 40 years to meet
There is also a need for continuing research in post-harvest storage the rising demand for food. This translates into an additional one
technologies. For example, in India, it is estimated that 35 to 40% billion tonnes of cereals and 200 million tonnes of meat a year by
of fresh produce is lost because neither wholesale nor retail outlets 2050 compared with 2005/07 levels (OECD-FAO, 2012). Additional
have cold storage and even with rice grain, which can be stored more production will also be necessary to provide feedstock for expanding
readily, as much as one-third of the harvest in Southeast Asia can biofuel production. Achieving these levels will require us to embraceYou can also read
