Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property

Page created by Norman Harmon
 
CONTINUE READING
Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property
Creative Places
 Create Value
The Impact of Creative Workspace
  on Local Residential Property
Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property
About the Creative Land Trust
                                                                                                                                Commissioned by              In Collaboration
Creative Land Trust is a charity launched in 2019, supported by the                                                                                          with
Mayor of London, Arts Council England, Bloomberg Philanthropies
and Outset Contemporary Art Fund. The charity was set up to tackle
a long-standing problem for London and other cities – the rapid loss
of affordable workspace for artists and makers, presenting a serious
threat to the wellbeing and prosperity of a city and country renowned
for creativity and culture. We’re making space for art.

About Creative Estuary
                                                                                                                                Creative Land Trust          Creative Estuary           Get Living
Creative Estuary has a vision to forge a new future founded on
                                                                                                                                Invicta House                Clocktower Building,       1 East Park Walk
creative energy and innovation, along the length of the Thames
                                                                                                                                108-114 Golden Lane,         University of Kent,        East Village
Estuary. We’re going to do this by developing the places where
                                                                                                                                London                       Chatham Historic           London
the creative industries can build a vibrant and prosperous future,
                                                                                                                                EC1Y 0TL                     Dockyard, Kent             E20 1JH
enriching communities and strengthening the region. Creative
                                                                                                                                                             ME4 4TE
Estuary has been made possible through investment from the
Cultural Development Fund from the Department for Digital, Culture,
                                                                                                                                info@creativelandtrust.org   info@creativeestuary.com   hello@getliving.com
Media and Sport which is administered by Arts Council England. The
                                                                                                                                www.creativelandtrust.org    www.creativeestuary.com    www.getliving.com
project is led by the University of Kent on behalf of a consortium of
public sector and cultural organisations.

About Get Living                                                                                                                Author Team
Get Living is the UK’s leading build-to-rent operator – offering simple,
straightforward living in brilliant urban neighbourhoods, where our
resident communities enable independent businesses to thrive.
Get Living support the creative sector in London, where they have
launched The Lab E20, a sustainable design centre produced by
Christopher Raeburn.

Get Living’s £2 billion portfolio comprises 3,000 homes for rent
across three neighbourhoods: East Village and Elephant Central in
London and New Maker Yards at Middlewood Locks, Manchester.
Further neighbourhoods are planned in Leeds, Lewisham and                                                                       Hawkins\Brown                dataloft                   Ramidus
Glasgow, with ambitions to grow the portfolio to 15,000 homes
within five years.                                                                                                              159 St John Street           Athenia House              Ramidus Consulting Ltd
                                                                                                                                London EC1V 4QJ              10–14 Andover Road         89 The Street
Published digitally 09/2021                                                                                                                                  Winchester Hampshire       Barney NR21 0AD
                                                                                                                                                             SO23 7BS
Citation
                                                                                                                                mail@hawkinsbrown.com        info@dataloft.co.uk        Robharris@ramidus.co.uk
Creative Land Trust et al. (2021) The Impact of Creative Workspace                                                              www.HawkinsBrown.com         www.dataloft.co.uk         www.ramidus.co.uk
on Local Residential Property.
https://creativelandtrust.org/creative-places-create-value
                                                                                                                                +44 (0)20 7336 8030          +44 (0)1962 867712         +44 (0)1328 822 586
Front Cover:
RAW studios, Royal Albert Wharf
(© Delvendahl Martin Architects)

© Creative Land Trust 2021. Creative Land Trust welcomes the use, citing and dissemination of this report and its
contents without permission.
Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information only. While every effort has been made to ensure the
accuracy of this publication, the author team accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  3
Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property
Contents

1     Executive Summary   3   Quantitative Analysis            5.3 Thames Estuary Case
                                                                   Studies
                          3.1		London Case Studies: 		             C1 - Margate
2     Introduction        		Property Performance                   C2 - Southend
                          3.2		Thames Estuary Case 		              C3 - Basildon
2.1 The Brief             		Studies: Property		                    C4 - Thurrock
2.2 Our Approach          		Performance                            C5 - Medway
2.3 Research Overview     3.3		Price Analysis: Exploring the
                          		Relationship Between 		            6   Acknowledgements
                          		Creative Workspace and
                          		Residential Demand                 7   Appendix
                          3.4		Risk Analysis
                                                               7.1 Literature List
                          4	Qualitative Analysis              7.2	Detailed Risk Analysis

                          4.1		Expert Insight, Developers:
                                 Planning Consent Catalyst
                                 and Long-Term Value
                          4.2		Expert Insight, Operators:
                                 From Make-do-and-Mend to
                                 Creating Cultural Assets
                          4.3		Expert Insight, Estate
                                 Agents: Community View
                                 and Impact on Buyer
                                 Demand

                          5   Case Studies

                          5.1 London Clusters
                              A1 - Hackney Wick
                              A2 - Woolwich Dockyard
                              A3 - Tottenham

                          5.2 London Schemes
                              B1 - Galleria, Peckham
                              B2 - Bow Arts, Royal Albert
                              Docks
                              B3 - ASC Arthouse, Croydon
                              B4 - Second Floor Studios,
                              Wembley

Left
Affordable studios in
the Trampery on the
Gantry / Here East/
Hackney Wick
(© Rory Gardiner)

                                                                                             5
Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property
1      Executive Summary

Values in creative clusters          The contribution of
                                     creative industries to the
                                                                  Successful places are attractive and
                                                                  desirable, which stimulates demand
                                                                  for residential property. The discus-
                                                                                                            fore, an implied contribution to value.
                                                                                                            Isolating and quantifying the specific
                                                                                                            financial value that can be traced back

outperformed the London average      wider economy is not in
                                     dispute, as the relevant
                                                                  sion of price growth is problematic,
                                                                  especially when associated with
                                                                                                            to the presence of creative workspace
                                                                                                            is challenging. This kind of value is of-

by 4.4% per annum over 10 years.
                                     literature reflects. We      creative industries, because there is a   ten accrued over the longer term, tied
                                                                  history of displacement. For investors    up with other contributing factors and
                                     know that the presence of
                                                                  and developers, successful develop-       does not necessarily exceed the value
                                     creative industries within   ment and price growth are inextricably    of an alternative use at the outset.
                                     communities has not only     linked. When a place is successful, it
                                     a social value but a wider   translates into demand and value. For     There are, of course, many compet-

Values in creative clusters in the   economic value, too. The
                                     flow on to residential
                                                                  this reason, the relationship between
                                                                  creative workspaces and value has
                                                                                                            ing uses within a development. The
                                                                                                            typical developer model will look to

Thames Estuary outperformed the
                                                                  generally been avoided in the litera-     the higher values achievable for that
                                     values is generally          ture, until now.                          space, if only to minimise risk. Thus,
                                     understood but not                                                     for creative workspace to be present

area average by 3.3% per annum       singled out and explicitly
                                     recorded, and often it is
                                                                  The ultimate purpose of this research
                                                                  study is to help expand the provi-
                                                                  sion of affordable workspace for
                                                                                                            in a development, it must take the
                                                                                                            place of an alternative use. In most
                                                                                                            cases, the alternative use will have a

over 5 years.                        an uncomfortable truth.      creatives by presenting developers
                                                                  with evidence to show that creative
                                                                  workspace can make an important
                                                                                                            higher financial value, at least in the
                                                                                                            short term, whether that is addition-
                                                                                                            al residential or a different kind of
                                                                  contribution to financial value in a      commercial use. For developers to be
                                                                  residential-led development.              encouraged to make creative work-
                                                                                                            space part of a scheme, evidence that
                                                                  The task was to quantify the relation-    shows how values can outperform
                                                                  ship between the presence of creative     over the longer term is useful.
                                                                  workspace and positive change in
                                                                  residential values, attributable to the   Where policy intervenes, the equation,
                                                                  presence of that creative space. It       even at the outset, is often tipped
                                                                  does so by translating the widely         in favour of creative workspace.
                                                                  acknowledged ‘soft value’, into a         For instance, where the developer
                                                                  ‘hard value’ that can be accepted by      is required to preserve or provide
                                                                  investors and developers for use in       employment space, the range of
                                                                  evaluating development opportunities      alternative uses is restricted, and the
                                                                  and encourage them to re-examine          case for creative workspace is greatly
                                                                  the risk-return trade-off, of creative    strengthened. This research demon-
                                                                  workspace as a ground floor use.          strates that professionally managed
                                                                                                            creative workspace is often a more
                                                                  An important finding is that many de-     viable and financially attractive option
                                                                  velopers are recognising, and indeed      than other commercial uses because
                                                                  lauding, the contribution of creative     it offers long-term secure income,
                                                                  workspace to the community, vitali-       which is particularly appealing in
                                                                  ty and the wider economy. There is        uncertain times.
                                                                  widespread understanding that these
                                                                  things all have an impact on the long-    Moreover, if the character of an area
                                                                  term success of a place and there-        is strongly associated with creative

6                                                                                                                                                   7
Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property
1          Executive Summary                                                                                                1             Executive Summary

                                                                                                                            The case studies showed the suc-          to the life and vitality that creative    space and showing a willingness and
                                                                                                                            cess of the inclusion of creative work-   space can bring. These benefits can       financial ability to commit to the long-
                                                                                                                            space within a new build scheme was       be enhanced with active curation,         term. Active engagement from the
                                                                                                                            dependent on factors including the        expert management and community           outset is valuable to both parties.
                                                                                                                            scale of the creative workspace, the      engagement. Creative workspace is
                                                                                                                            operator, visibility and community en-    considered ‘a good neighbour’ for         Feedback from estate agents (as a
                                                                                                                            gagement. Bow Arts at Royal Albert        residents, compared to some other         means to explore residents’ views)
                                                                                                                            Wharf is a prime example of the value     commercial uses. The long-term            confirmed that a particular sort of
                                                                                                                            creative space can add.                   commitment from workspace oper-           buyer actively favours a creative com-
                                                                                                                                                                      ators is attractive to investors (and     munity, which certainly underpins de-
                                                                                                                            Of course, within large-scale regener-    thereby impacts yield).                   mand in the locality. Other residents,
                                                                                                                            ation, there are other positive con-                                                whilst not explicitly recognising the
                                                                                                                            tributions from a range of amenities      The risk analysis in this research        value of creative workspace appreci-
                                                                                                                            and well-recognised brands; creative      demonstrates that creative workspace      ated the amenities that bring life and
                                                                                                                            workspace is only one ingredient.         as a ground floor use in a residential    vitality to their local community. This
                                                                                                                            However, with a growing number of         development does not introduce            local ‘buzz’ is even more important
                                                                                                                            examples, it is clear that developers     any additional risk and can increase      since the pandemic, as many people
                                                                                                                            are increasingly willing to value its     investment value because where            spend more time locally.
                                                                                                                            inclusion.                                there is a good covenant and secure
                                                                                                                                                                      long-term income (or a long leasehold     The role of engagement was em-
                                                                                                                            Developers corroborated the view          sale).                                    phasised in all our interviews. It takes
                                                                                                                            that each site had to be evaluated in                                               passion, engagement, expert curation
                                                                                                                            its own right but that, in certain cir-   The way in which operators have           and a change in mindset from devel-
                                                                                                                            cumstances, the inclusion of creative     evolved their approach is also critical   opers for the value of creative work-
                                                                                                                            workspace had acknowledgeable             to this dialogue. Creative workspace      space to be maximised. Where these
                                                                                                                            benefits, even more so where there        operators actively seek early involve-    factors align, there is evidence of the
                                                                                                                            was a need to protect employment          ment in new build schemes, wanting        value add to be accrued.
                                                                                                                            space. The visible benefits relate        to be involved in the design of the

                                                                                                                                               Left
                                                                                                                             Existing artist studio
                                                                                                                                in Hackney Wick
                                                                                                                                (115 Wallis Road)
                                                                                                                                 (© Cell Studios /
industries, demand for residential is     It recorded outperformance in price       terms).                                      Marielle Amelie )
bolstered by people who want to live      growth for the residential property in    An association is not necessarily a
in a creative enclave and the market      the locality, taking outperformance       causal link. The next step was to                        Right
favours creative space.                   over and above the area benchmark         challenge and corroborate the head-            New residential
                                          as an indication of value created by      line value add metric. The research         development with
                                                                                                                            creative workspace at
Consequently, it must be possible,        the presence of creative workspace.       examined some of these creative
                                                                                                                                   84 Wallis Road/
in the right circumstances, to iden-      This gave us the value-add metric.        clusters in more detail and where               Hackney Wick
tify a metric that demonstrates to a      In London, the value-add metric is        possible, looked at examples of                (© Cell Studios)
prospective developer that making         4.4% per annum (measured over 10          creative workspace within a new build
space available for creative work-        years) and in the Thames Estuary, it is   scheme. Likewise, interviews with
space in a predominantly residential      3.3% per annum (as a more emer-           stakeholders and experts explored
development is a commercially sound       gent market, this was measured over       what else might be contributing to
decision.                                 5 years). This outperformance is not      price outperformance in these places
                                          smooth or consistent over time or         and the likelihood of this outper-
To this end, this research analysed       place, and there are many factors at      formance being replicated in any
trends in sale and rental values for      play, nevertheless, for these clusters,   development that included creative
residential property in parts of London   there was an association with the         workspace.
and the Thames Estuary where there        presence of creative workspace and
are clusters of creative workspace.       outperformance (in residential price

8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      9
Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property
Key Findings

                   This research found a positive association between creative                                Long-term commitment is critical on all sides:                          Creative workspace is a
                   workspace and residential property values.                                                                                                                            good neighbour.
                   4.4%
                     per annum outperformance during a 10-year window in                                                                                                               Creative workspace brings
                   		London.                                                                                                For the developer, it brings income security,               vitality to a community
                                                                                                                              reduced void risk and improved yield.                    without being disruptive,
                   3.3%      per annum during a 5-year window in the Thames Estuary                                                                                                   especially when it is present
                                                                                                                                                                                                 at scale.
                              The outperformance is similar to the effect associated with regeneration,
                              green or blue space, popular schools, or certain grocery stores.
                                                                                                              For the operator, it brings security for their
                              The association is more robust where there is a cluster of creative             occupier community.
                              workspaces.

                              Successful creative clusters become place brands in their own right. For
                              instance, Margate and Hackney Wick have become international brands in                                      For residents, it means a stable,
                              their own right.
                                                                                                                                              sustainable neighbourhood.
                              A single creative workspace operator can bring life to an area before housing
                              is offered for sale, e.g. Bow Arts Trust at Royal Albert Wharf.

                              Creative workspace
                                                                                                              Operators need scale,                                                        Creative clusters
                               as a ground floor
                                                                          The covenant of many                longevity and early                                                        can be kick-started
                             commercial use does
                                                                          workspace operators is              involvement.                                                                by regeneration or
                             not add material risk
                                                                          potent, and the artists                                                                                         evolve organically.
                              and can add value.
                                                                          themselves tend to
There is significant                                                      be stable and reliable
                                                             £
                                                                                                                                                                                                     £
unsatisfied demand for                                                    occupiers.
                                                                                                                                                        Creative activities
creative workspace,                                          £            The new model of creative           usually at least
                                                                                                                                                     contribute to successful
more than one                                                             workspace operators                 10,000 sq ft
thousand named                                               £            committing to purpose-built                                                     placemaking.
applicants.                                                               long-term secure leases has         and ideally                                  London’s Creative
                                                                          real value.                                                                  Enterprise Zones will act as
                                                                                                              20-25,000 sq ft.                                 a catalyst.

                                                  Creative workspace
                   The perception of              satisfies planning                                          Cultural landmarks
                   artist and creative            obligations to protect                                      help create place
                   workspace as                   employment space                                            identity.
                   casual, chaotic
                                                  e.g. Galleria development,                                  e.g. Turner Contemporary
                   and transient is                                                                           in Margate, and the strong
                                                  studio space by ACME, and
                   misleading.                                                                                halo impact of the Queen
                                                  ASC Arthouse in Croydon
                                                                                                              Elizabeth Olympic Park.
                                                  Grafton Quarter.

  10                                                                                                                                                                                                            11
Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property
2          Introduction

What the developer sees is artists
hanging out in what appears to be
chaotic studio space; they don’t see that
it is actually a very well-organised,
well-structured business model which
is hugely effective at delivering high-
quality environments and workplaces
Selina Mason (Lendlease)

2.1		               The Brief
2.2		               Our Approach
2.3 		              Research Overview

Left
Matchmakers Wharf
Homerton
(© Morley von
Sternberg)

                                            13
Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property
2         Introduction                                                                                            2          Introduction
2.1       The Brief                                                                                               2.2        Our Approach

 1. Our brief was to undertake         2. The primary objective of             4. The brief asked that any        Our approach incorporated both            Analysis of house price data:             The qualitative research included
    research to investigate and           this study was to prove                 evidence from quantitative      quantitative and qualitative research,    Firstly, the research examined house      expert interviews and a short
    quantify the value added by           the positive relationship               analysis should be backed       drawing too on existing published         price data in a range of time periods     questionnaire survey to canvas views
    creative workspace in new             between the presence of                 by qualitative dialogue and     work. The approach varied slightly        and creative workspace locations,         on the relationship between creative
    residential developments.             creative studio workspace               expert opinion. To this end,    between the London and Thames             to look for price change or price         workspace and demand for and/or
    To date, there is no widely           and demand for residential              the research asks: what is it   Estuary locations, dependent on           differentials associated with the         value of, residential property. These
    accepted model for                    property. It accepts the                that stops more developers      data availability and maturity of the     presence of creative workspace. The       interviews included:
    demonstrating projected               premise that an increase                from incorporating creative     market. Our distinction between           resultant matrix formed a framework
    investment returns resulting          in residential value is a key           space? Are there hurdles        Thames Estuary (Kent and Essex)           to assess and compare performance         – Residential developers: to
    from the inclusion of artists’        indicator of demand.                    to investment? What do          and Greater London was helpful for        and help quantify the value added by        explore the range of attitudes
    and makers’ workspace in                                                      residents think? What are       the purpose of this study to reflect      the presence of creative workspace.         towards creative workspace in a
    particular, or of the impact                                                  the lessons to learn from       differences in character. However, in                                                 new build residential scheme, the
                                       3. It is anticipated that the results
    on liveability, desirability and                                              operators?                      reality it is a continuous geography,     Case studies of clusters and                role that planning takes and how
                                           of the work will be used with
    nearby economic activity, and                                                                                 and neighbouring places may have          schemes:                                    value can be recognised.
                                           landowners, developers and
    therefore a property’s value.                                                                                 much in common. The Thames                Across London and the Thames
                                           investors to demonstrate the                                                                                                                               – Estate agents: to explore
                                                                                                                  Estuary Production Corridor reflects      Estuary, case studies were selected
                                           opportunity to optimise not                                                                                                                                  community attitudes and
                                                                                                                  this and spans both geographies.          for a closer examination of residential
                                           only the social and cultural                                                                                                                                 understand drivers of buyer / rental
                                                                                                                                                            demand. These were either creative
                                           value that creative workspace                                                                                                                                demand.
                                                                                                                  Literature review and                     clusters (localities with multiple
                                           can bring but also the                                                                                                                                     – Creative workspace operators:
                                                                                                                  international case studies:               creative workspaces) or standalone
                                           financial value of residential/                                                                                                                              exploring the evolution of operator
                                                                                                                  A literature review explored published    schemes where creative workspace
                                           commercial projects.                                                                                                                                         business models, lessons in
                                                                                                                  research on creative workspace            had been included in a residential
                                                                                                                  and its impact on property values,        scheme.                                     management and how curation
                                                                                                                  including examples of creative clusters                                               relates to community engagement,
                                                                                                                  overseas.                                 Risk analysis:                              something that stems directly from
                                                                                                                                                            A development appraisal, based on           the fact that many operators are
                                                                                                                  The quantitative element of this          a hypothetical residential scheme,          charities.
                                                                                                                  research had three components:            formed the basis of a risk assessment     – Local authorities: to ensure
                                                                                                                                                            by modelling three different scenarios      the research picked up on the
                                                                                                                                                            for ground floor use.                       important local dynamics of the
                                                                                                                                                                                                        creative community, especially for
                                                                                                                                                                                                        less mature markets.

14                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          15
Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property
2           Introduction                                                                                                          2           Introduction
2.3         Research Overview including international case studies                                                                2.3         Research Overview including international case studies

A valuable but vulnerable asset             These are very low rents, reflecting       But also:                                  small businesses were being forced         explicitly aim to supply affordable        According to Creative United:
Until around 2014, artist workspac-         the secondary locations that artists       Between 2014 and 2017, 52 new sites        out and that this was exacerbated by       space, or provision occurs through         “Such innovations and approaches
es tended to be addressed only in           tend to inhabit. But the research adds:    providing artists’ workspace opened        pressure to release employment land        charitable or not-for-profit endeavours    need support to ensure maximisation
the context of affordable workspace         Studios in our study show very high        - a net gain of 13 sites. Mayoral regen-   for housing.                               (p10). That is to say, artists workspace   of the economic, social and cultural
generally, rather than in relation to the   and continuous occupancy rates, in-        eration funding has supported 4 of                                                    and makerspaces generally are not          benefits of creative workspace de-
specific needs of artists. The situation    dicating consistent levels of demand.      these sites. (ibid)                        The advantage of Open Workspace is         seen as commercial enterprises. But:       velopment for local and regional
was such that Future of London (2017)       An estimated 3,500 artists are on                                                     seen as well suited to small and grow-                                                economies”. (p10)
observed that:                              waiting lists. Furthermore, each year      Despite the new supply:                    ing organisation, could offer business     Such creative spaces and commu-
Artist spaces tend to fit more easily       35,000 students graduate from Art &        Workspaces are becoming more               support services facilitates peer-         nities have also been shown to have        According to Creative United, feed-
into mixed-use schemes and there            Design Colleges in London. (p8)            expensive. In 2014, 56 per cent of         to-peer interaction. They can also         a wider economic and social value,         back from commercial developers
are examples throughout London.                                                        sites charged an average of £11+ per       support economic growth – especially       helping to regenerate areas by stim-       suggests that for them to consider
However, while supply and demand            Future of London (2017) found a simi-      square foot. In 2017, this had risen       in bringing redundant space back into      ulating local business growth and          responding seriously to the issues
for industrial space is monitored,          lar pattern:                               to 79 per cent of sites (…) . Sites show   use, even though measuring the exact       attracting inward investment and           facing creative workspaces it would
data on artists’ spaces isn’t tracked       Industrial, maker space and studio         very high and continuous occupancy         contribution is challenging.               infrastructure development, without        require financial incentives, economic
by local or central government. There       operators we spoke to had long wait-       rates. There appears to have been no                                                  (in the main) disenfranchising local       impact evidence and accompanying
is a substantial knowledge gap about        ing lists, indicating strong unmet         decline in demand from artists for         The role of affordable workspace           incumbent communities. (Creative           policies from key decision-makers
the supply and demand for artists’          demand. (p5)                               workspace since 2014. (p6)                 generally, and artist workspaces in        United 2016, p1)                           and legislative/executive bodies such
workspace. (p17)                                                                                                                  particular, in placemaking is also                                                    as national and local government.
                                            It is this consistency in demand that      It is manifestly evident that churn        widely acknowledged, as is the cultur-     Creative workspaces are a core infra-      Small, incremental changes will not
We Made That (2014) made the first          consolidates values, and paradoxically     is an existential condition for artist     al value they bring:                       structure for the vibrant and dynamic      suffice.
widely recognised comprehensive             leads to artists being pushed out as       workspaces. This should not be too                                                    creative economy (ibid). They deliver
survey of artist workspace in London,       general regeneration occurs.               surprising, given their tendency to        Powerful discourses and practices          economic, social and cultural benefits     A number of factors can limit the
on behalf of the Mayor of London:           Affordable artists’ workspace is a         be pioneers in areas on the cusp of        have emerged in recent decades that        that have especially supported regen-      success of policy: the nature of legal
The survey has uncovered that the           valuable, yet vulnerable asset in Lon-     regeneration.                              link cultural investment and activ-        eration activity – as artistic commu-      agreements, the requirements of
supply of artists’ studio space in Lon-     don…the sector is largely reliant on                                                  ity not simply to understanding the        nities have occupied under-invested        financiers, limited Council resources
don is higher than previously record-       providers operating on a not-for-prof-     Artist workspaces and regener-             city but to changing it. (Crossick &       sites and supported the redevelop-         and reliance on delivery partners.
ed. We recorded 298 separate studio         it or charitable basis in order to keep    ation                                      Kaszynska 2015. (p74)                      ment cycle.                                (Ferm, 2016)
buildings or sites, catering for over       rents within reach…it is clear that        Despite this pressure, affordable
11,500 artists across the capital…          the market will not by itself address      workspace has been widely regarded         In particular the creation of creative     These cycles leave many workspac-          This is the key challenge faced in the
artists’ workspace is a diverse field       sustained provision, thus jeopardis-       as a key aid to regeneration and artist    quarters is a distinctive dimension        es and communities vulnerable – on         provision of artist workspaces.
generally characterised by scarce re-       ing this key component of London’s         space; and by 2016, artist workspac-       of the wider regeneration narrative,       short-term leases, undesignated and
sources. Studio providers and artists       cultural and social vibrancy. (We          es were explicitly acknowledged as a       privileging smaller-scale initiatives in   exposed to the broader dynamics            Funding space
have therefore developed a number of        Made That, 2014, p8)                       distinct element of this market (IPPR,     contrast to the dominant focus on big      of the property development pro-           Relatively little work has been done to
models to ensure that space remains                                                    2016) under the umbrella term of           infrastructure projects. (ibid)            cess. Vulnerability driven by property     investigate the issue of financial via-
affordable. (p7)                            In a 2018 data update, We Made That        open workspaces. They were seen                                                       markets is especially acute in London,     bility, with research sometimes taking
                                            found:                                     as resources, with flexible access and     Research by Creative United, com-          which dominates the provision of           absence of viability for granted. Cre-
Artists are often indirect victims of       67 per cent of sites identified in 2014    an element of curation, but with great     missioned by ACE and GLA to                creative workspaces and studios.           ative United (2016) seems to assume
their own success, and, having con-         as at risk of closure within 5 years       variation within these three parame-       investigate the UK’s existing creative                                                that, for creative space, commercial
tributed to positive placemaking in an      had closed by November 2017. (p5)          ters.                                      workspace provision, describes the         As old models of “find a space and         viability is not a factor. Its recommen-
area, may find that they are no longer                                                                                            on-going challenges to sustainability      occupy” become increasingly imprac-        dations regarding finance are:
able to afford to remain there once         The risk of closure remains high,          The provision of affordable work-          and identifies the emergence of new        tical over the long term, new ap-
property values begin to rise.              and 24 per cent (57) of current sites      space, mainly for smaller and lower        forms of provision and potential addi-     proaches and solutions are emerging        – Identify grant funds to refurbish
The average rent across the main stu-       providing artists’ workspace are at        margin firms, has been a key focus         tional funding models. It also showed      around such aspects as permanent             property.
dio providers is £13.73 per sq ft per       risk of closure within the next 5 years.   of public policy for many years. In the    that the provision of affordable artists   occupation and ownership, regional
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        – Identify existing funds that may
annum, though a significant amount          This because so few organisations          early-2000s, there was a growing           space is primarily met by charitable or    hub – London presence, and mixed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          support establishment.
of studio space (19%) is rented at £8       own the freehold to sites (around 13       concern in London that property val-       not-for-profit organisations. More than    partnerships.
per sq ft. (ibid)                           per cent). (ibid)                          ues were rising to such an extent that     82% of artists’ workspace providers

16                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            17
Creative Places Create Value - The Impact of Creative Workspace on Local Residential Property
2           Introduction                                                                                                           2            Introduction
2.2         Research Overview                                                                                                      2.2          Research Overview

– Identify opportunities to develop         Separating an analysis of artist work-     sustainable creative workspaces. The        over a 25,000 sq m warehouse. They
    small pots of cash from alternative     spaces from the wider analysis of          LA design district is part of a mature      invited artists to use the space, and it
    finance such as crowdfunding.           affordable workspaces is challenging.      high-value residential market, and its      quickly became a vibrant cultural cen-
    (p23)                                   Nevertheless, it has been established      creative culture is part of an integrated   tre and helped persuade the share-
It is assumed that mainstream funding       that there is strong demand for artists    marketing strategy to attract affluent      holders that culture and creativity was
is not available.                           workspaces, but this demand is not         buyers.                                     the way to lead development.
                                            financially able to pay market pro-
Beunderman et al. (2018) define a           cess for what is, essentially, a variant   In Nantes, the process is more or-          Central to the project is the notion of
‘New London Mix’ in an attempt to           of light industrial space. There is an     ganic, almost happening by chance.          Mixed City (pronounced ‘mixity’), an
offer a viable model. This mix is:          implicit assumption in most analyses       Creative workplaces and large-scale         active mixing of uses and activities.
(…) the close co-location of light in-      that artists’ workspaces are inevitably    residential developments benefit from
dustrial, distribution and productive       non-commercial. While efforts have         each other. From the conversation           SAMOA draws a distinction between
workspace with homes in a way that          been made to develop models to             with the development agency SA-             ‘creative’, which is market oriented
works for occupiers and residents           overcome this, they remain largely         MOA in Nantes, we understand that,          and ‘cultural’, which is more hybrid
(p2) - arguing that it can (…) increase     untested and therefore unproven.           although prices have been rising, new       and may involve subsidy. SAMOA
the amount and range of employment                                                     residential schemes continue to inte-       generates its revenue by selling              Sydney                                      Los Angeles
space - not just to achieve ‘no net loss’   International experience:                  grate creative workplaces at ground         the right to build, seeking to exploit        On the other side of the world, Syd-        The West Hollywood Design Dis-
of employment space, as is currently        from mixity to movieland                   level. This is seen as a vital contribu-    the power of culture to bring about           ney has seen multiple art-led regener-      trict, originally the Avenues of Art
the stated aim of current policy, but       The value of creative workspace is not     tion to placemaking and part of an          economic development. Great                   ations. South of Central Sydney, work       & Design, is a cultural destination
to achieve ‘net gain’ across London –       only recognised in the UK. Three di-       overall economic strategy.                  use is made of temporary spac-                redeveloping a former industrial area       for high-caliber design, art, fashion,
and build better places. (p13)              verse examples from France, Australia                                                  es – where temporary may mean                 at Green Square started in 2007 but         dining, beauty and more, initially en-
                                            and the United States illustrate this      Île de Nantes                               ten years – to bring life to zones on         progressed slowly. Then in 2012,            compassing more than 200 business-
Their focus is on a much wider base         diversity. Although we do not have         The closure of the last shipyard            the island, an example being Le               the redevelopment of the old Syd-           es.  It was established as a Business
of occupiers than artists. Howev-           access to exact figures to understand      on Île de Nantes came as a trauma           Karting – a former kart track trans-          ney Hospital nurses’ quarters be-           Improvement District as long ago as
er, this model envisages, inter alia,       the impact of creative workspaces, all     to the city and the 600,000 people          formed into 40 small spaces for visual        gan as restored community space.            1996 and, when renamed in 2013,
around 4,000 sq m of light industrial       three case studies represent success-      in its metropolitan area. The regen-        entertainment media. Most iconic,                                                         supported more than 300 business-
space under 120 apartments. The             ful creative clusters that have directly   eration of the 5km by 1km island is         however, is Les Machines de L’île, an         The Joynton Avenue Creative Centre          es.  
authors argue that it is currently viable   contributed to a thriving real estate      led by SAMOA, a privately structured        idiosyncratic collection of art installa-     was launched in 2018 and houses
in West London and near the CAZ,            market.                                    but publicly-owned development              tions with its elephant serving as an         over 25 artists, creative practition-       The West Hollywood Design District
and that a tipping point exists around                                                 agency. The regeneration is explicitly      icon for the whole regeneration.              ers, organisations and start-ups, as        Streetscape Master Plan was adopt-
Tube Zone Three, where values that          Sydney demonstrates that effective         culture-led, with the proof of concept                                                    well as supporting creative education       ed in summer 2013. It was developed
support this concept weaken, and            management is vital to delivering          shown when the initial team took            There is also no fear of experiment-          programs, jewellery making and cul-         with the help of a consultant team
that viability worsens further east.                                                                                               ing via prototypes. Indeed, the               tural events. Not far away, SQ1 offers      and a community working group,
                                                                                                                                   initial use of the warehouse to serve         a: “creative platform for the visual arts   composed of over a dozen business
A new briefing note prepared by                                                                                                    artists was such an experiment,               and contemporary culture, including         owners and residents in the area.
Savills and the BCO reflects a new                                                                                                 and success was not initially ex-             40 artist studios.”
attitude:                                                                                                                          pected. A more conventional, for                                                          During the adoption of the plan, City
Whereas previously artists were dis-                                                                                               the time, office-led scheme was               Success has not been without                Council requested that the identified
placed in the process of gentrification                                                                                            envisaged. This knowledge has had             hiccups. In 2007, the historic former       public gathering spaces be further
or regeneration, now many authori-                                                                                                 multiplier benefits such that develop-        Eveleigh Railway Workshops at Red-          developed through a communi-
ties and developers are seeing artists                                                                                             ments that are not part of the scheme         fern were transformed into a cultural       ty design process. Phase 2 of the
as central to their regeneration pro-                                                                                              tend to mix in affordable space, since        precinct with resident artists, claiming    scheme aims to bring public realm
posals. (Savills/ BCO, July 2021)                                                                                                  it seems to help homes sell more              to be the most significant multi-arts       improvements, including a new public
                                                                                                                                   quickly. The project runs until 2037,         centre in Australia. However, it had        meeting space, to fruition by 2025.
Adding that while its research was                                                                                                 but already half of the people who            been operating on a month-by-month          This is a more conventional route to
written about London and in the con-                                                                                               move to Nantes settle on the island.          lease since 2017, and the COVID-19          urban renewal that illustrates the value
text of rising costs:                                                                                                                                                            pandemic led to it going into admin-        of building on existing strengths.
Many of the measures in the new                                                                                                                                                  istration, owing Aus$2m in May 2020.
London Plan1 are relevant to other                                                                                                 Top                                           In July, a government-backed res-
cities struggling to maintain the di-                                                                                              The Joynton Avenue      Left                  cue package was approved, but the
                                                                                                                                   Creative Centre,        The Alstom            problems faced by Carriageworks do
versity of their economic ecosystems.                                                                                              Sydney.                 Warehouses / Nantes
                                                                                                                                                                                 illustrate the need for sound finances.
                                                                                                                                   (© Michael Nicholson)   (© Luc Boegly)

18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19
3        Quantitative Analysis

Our view is that creative engagement
has an enormous impact. It is difficult
to measure but we recognise the value as
massive and work alongside developers
and investors who recognise this, as
we do, with a different mindset and
approach.
Ken Dytor (Urban Catalyst)

3.1		 London Case Studies: Property Performance
3.2		 Thames Estuary Case Studies: Property Performance
3.3		Price Analysis: Exploring the Relationship Between
      Creative Workspace and Residential Demand
3.4		 Risk Analysis

Left
RAW studios at Royal
Albert Wharf
(© Delvendahl Martin
Architects)

                                                           21
Performance data:       TOTTENHAM
    London Case Studies                               28.3% (2.8%)
                                                    Maturing cluster:
                                                                               2008-2018

                                                                                                                   Performance data:
    Property Performance Summary                     Benefiting from

                                                                                                                                                                                   44%
                                                                                                                        81% (8.1%)
                                                     a creative spill-
                                                     over effect from           2.8%                                Mature cluster:
                                                                                                                  Globally recognised
                                                     Hackney Wick.
                                                                                                                    creative cluster.
                                                   Growing in scale and
SECOND FLOOR            Emerging:                                                                                Changes in this market
                                                       importance.
  STUDIOS,             Second Floor                                                              HACKNEY WICK    really gathered a pace
  WEMBLEY             Studios is one                                                                2009-2019   from 2012 and following                                               total price
                        element in                                                                               the London Olympics.
                      this enormous                                                                                                                                               outperformance
                       regeneration
                         scheme.                                                                                                                                                   of London’s key
                                                                                                      8%                                                                          creative clusters
                                                                                                                                            Emerging:
                                                                                                                                           Bow Arts has
                                                                                                                                            been very
                                                                                                                                                                                    over 10 years
                                                                           Maturing:                                                       successful in

                                                                                                                                                                                 4.4%
                                                                    At its inception (2005)                                                bringing this
                                                                      The Galleria was a                                                  new residential
                                                                  ground-breaking creative                                                  area to life.
                                                                  workspace development                                                  BOW ARTS,
                                                                     in partnership with                                             ROYAL ALBERT DOCK
                                                                    housebuilder Barratt.
                                                                  Since the opening of The                                                                                        per annum price
                                                                  Galleria, a cluster of other
                                                                   creative workspace has
                                                                                                                                                                                  outperformance
                                                                                                                                          Performance data:
                                                                     grown up around it.
                                                                                                                                          3% (0.3%)                               of London’s key
                                                                           GALLERIA,
                                                                                                                                 0.3%     Mature cluster:
                                                                                                                                                                                  creative clusters
                                                                                                                                          Significant scale of
                                                                           PECKHAM                                                        creative workspace but
                                                                                                                              WOOLWICH limited residential in the
                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
                                                                                                                              DOCKYARD immediate vicinity. A
                                                                                                                                2008-2018
                                                                                                                                          potential opportunity area.

                                                                                                                                          Headline analyses of London’s         purpose-built workspace within
                                                                                                                                          key creative clusters showed          a residential scheme. For most of
                                                                                                                                          an associated average                 the creative workspace within a
                                                                                                                                          outperformance of 4.4% over a 10-     scheme, it is too early to assess
      		 Creative                                                                                                                         year window.                          the impact on the surrounding
     		Enterprise Zone                                                                                                                                                          residential and readily comparable
                                                            Emerging:                                                                     This outperformance finds             data is yet to emerge.
                                                           Croydon has                                                                    evidence for a link between the
      		 Best window of 10-year
     		outperformance total
                                                         seen significant                                                                 clusters of creative workspace and    The London case studies used a
                                                       regeneration. ASC                                                                  residential demand, expressed as      definition of creative workspace,
                                                     Studios at the Grafton                                                               house price growth.                   based upon the GLA Cultural
        		 Best window of 10-year                     Quarter is one of the                                                                                                     Infrastructure map. As the map
     x%
     		    outperformance annual                       first purpose-built                                                                The research then focused on case     highlights, many of these case
     		equivalent
                                                          studios here.                                                                   studies to explore this association   studies fall within or near Creative
        		             Case Study (schemes) - no                                                                                          in more detail. The case studies      Enterprise Zones.
       		              comparable data                                                                                                    were both clusters of creative
                                                       ASC STUDIOS,                                                                       space and stand-alone large
                                                        CROYDON
     NB values are benchmarked against London
     property price performance.
Thames Estuary Production Corridor Case Studies

                                                                                                               16.6%
    Property Performance Summary                                                                                                                      Analyses of these Thames Estuary
                                                                                                                                                      locations showed on-average
                                                                                                                                                      price outperformance in these
                                                                                                                                                      creative clusters relative to the
                                                                                                                                                      wider market. This outperformance
                                                                                                                    total price                       was 3.3% per annum, derived from
                                                       Emerging:                                                                                      total outperformance of 17% over
                                                   Creative sector is
                                                                                              Emerging:
                                                                                            Has a growing
                                                                                                                 outperformance                       the 5 years. All these clusters are
                                                    emerging at this
                                                  location. Proximity
                                                                                         network of creative   of Thames Estuary’s                    explored in more detail in the case
                                                                                                                                                      studies.
                                                                                           businesses with
                                                 to London is a clear
                                                advantage. Initiatives
                                                                                        industry experience,   key creative clusters                  For the Thames Estuary, as a more
                                                                                            working within
                                                    to raise cultural
                                                   profile: BasildON.
                                                                                          the town based in        over 5 years                       emergent creative location, there
                                                                                         physical workspace                                           is a looser definition of creative
                                                                                                                                                      workspace including a wider range
                                                   BASILDON                            or working from home
                                                                                                                                                      of creative uses and often smaller
                                                      2014-2019                          and serving clients

                                                                                                                 3.3%
                                                                                               remotely.                                              scale premises. The location
                                                                                                                                                      selection was led by Creative
                                                                                                                                                      Estuary’s knowledge of the key
                                                                                           SOUTHEND
                                                                                                                                                      creative clusters across the area.
                                                     2.9%                                     2015-2020

                                                                                              1.0%                per annum price
                                                       14.6%
                                                                                                                 outperformance of
        THURROCK
            2013-2018
                                                                                               4.9%              Thames Estuary’s
                                                                                                                    key creative
                                                                                                                      clusters
          5.0%                                                                                                      Source: Dataloft, Land Registry

                                                                                                                                                                      MARGATE
                                                                                                                                                                        2013-2018

            24.3%
         Maturing:                                                MEDWAY
This location has been very
  successful at attracting
                                                                  2010-2015
                                                                                                                                                                        6.7%
    powerful brands like
  the Royal Opera House.
   The arrival of creative                                        1.2%
 space has accompanied
 residential regeneration,                                                                                                                                               33.5%
the latter a likely key driver                                     6.0 %                                                                                                  Mature:
of price outperformance to                                       Emerging:                                                                                          Margate, regarded
            date.                                           Medway’s creative                                                                                      as a cultural hub and
                                                          journey has gathered                                                                                      global ‘brand’ in its
     		                                                  pace recently. The flow                                                                                   own right. Clear step
                                                        on to residential demand                                                                                   change in residential
                                                         is likely to build with its                                                                                  pricing in 2017.
                                                         creative ambitions laid
      		 Best window of 5-year
     		outperformance total                             out in Medway’s Cultural
        x%                                                Strategy. Earlier price
                                                          outperformance likely
        		 Best window of 5-year                         driven by other factors.
     x%
     		    outperformance annual
     		equivalent

     NB values are benchmarked against Thames
     Estuary (Kent and Essex) property price
     performance.
3          Quantitative Analysis                                                                                              3             Quantitative Analysis
3.3        Price Analysis: Exploring the Relationship Between Creative 		                                                     3.3           Price Analysis: Exploring the Relationship Between Creative
           Workspace and Residential Demand                                                                                                 Workspace and Residential Demand

                                                                                                                              Price outperformance of London’s creative clusters

It has long been acknowledged that       Research approach: London                  There are of course, other reasons for
                                                                                                                                                 Cluster size
creative space can bring life and        For London, the GLA Cultural               this strong house price performance.        Postcode        (GLA cultural
                                                                                                                                                                        Outperformance                 Strongest
vibrancy to an area. Historically,       Infrastructure map provided a base         Nevertheless it seems likely that the                                             versus London: total          performance: 10                       Area
                                                                                                                                 sector         infrastructure
                                                                                                                                                                       (annual equivalent)              years to:
this has been organic. Creatives         of knowledge from which to identify        creative value in these communities                              map)
seeking affordable workspaces            postcode sectors (e.g. E9 5) with          helped to strengthen residential
                                                                                                                               Tower Hamlets
found them in old industrial land on     the greatest number of creative            demand. These locations appealed
the city fringe, like Hackney Wick       workspaces. It showed seven                to potential buyers and many will be
or Woolwich Dockyard in London,          postcode sectors that had more than        familiar as creative hubs. Hackney         E14 0                    8               52.1%* (10.4%)                    2019            London City Island
or in areas with the lifestyle appeal    seven creative workspaces. These           Wick, of course, is the standout
of heritage, natural landscape, and      had sufficient critical mass to test the   example alongside other Hackney
lower land values, like Margate in the   relationship.                              postcodes (E3 2) and (E8 2).               Hackney
Thames Estuary.                                                                                                                                                                                                           Hackney Wick / Fish Island
                                         The presence of creative workspace is      London City Island is a key example        E3 2                    12                22.0% (2.2%)                     2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          / Bow
Clusters of creative space over time     constantly changing across London,         of where there is a bigger story
gained critical mass and recognition.    sometimes existing in temporary            at play than just the beneficial                                                                                                      Dalston Junction/
                                                                                                                               E8 2                    10                65.1% (6.5%)                     2014
Successful places attracted demand       and meanwhile space. Focusing on           influence of creatives. This area has                                                                                                 Shacklewell
for housing, and in a market             these larger clusters gave confidence      seen significant investment and
economy with constrained supply,         that, whilst the location of studios       regeneration, with well over 1,500 new     E8 3                    10                59.6% (6.0%)                     2015            London Fields / Dalston
demand almost inevitably translates      is ever evolving, these areas have         homes sold in this postcode over the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Hackney Wick (Case
into rising property values, unless      an established association and are         last few years (the window of analysis     E9 5                    10                 81.1% (8.1%)                    2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Study)
there is some intervention to prevent    likely to accommodate a longer-            was adjusted for this market).
it. The thorny relationship between      term creative community. Also,                                                        Haringey
development, demand and values is        the presence of multiple creative          It was harder to pin down
at the core of this research. When a     workspaces is likely to indicate a         outperformance over a 10-year
                                                                                                                               N15 4                    8                28.3% (2.8%)                     2018            Tottenham (Case Study)
place undergoes material change for      wider creative community.                  window for the Woolwich cluster,
the better, it is generally expressed                                               as Woolwich’s numbers were more
in local property values, which go       The dates at which any step change         volatile, and there were short periods     Greenwich
through a period of outperformance       in values might occur varies from          of residential outperformance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Woolwich Dockyard (Case
or a ‘step change’. This part of         locality to locality, depending on         (Woolwich is examined in more detail       SE18 5                   7                  3% (0.3%)                      2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Study)
the analysis seeks to quantify this      individual conditions. For that reason,    in the case studies).
outperformance.                          house price data was analysed                                                         Total
                                                                                                                                                                         44.4% (4.4%)
                                         over varying 10-year time frames, to       To test the robustness of this level of    Average
This relationship is not hard to         identify the best performance window       outperformance, we adjusted first the
verify, but there are, of course, a      where a step change in values was          timescale of the analysis and then the    Source: Dataloft, Land Registry, GLA Cultural Infrastructure Map. Note all pricing based on per sq ft.
multitude of factors that influence      evident.                                   number of creative workspaces in a        * Adjusted to 5-year outperformance, reflecting the timing of a significant new build pipeline and limited residential
                                                                                                                              transactions before that.
house prices. The starting point                                                    cluster. Both extra avenues of analysis
here was to analyse house price          Research results: London                   provided similar results.                 majority of outperformance can occur                workspaces (including any with an
data in various locations recognised     The evidence suggests there is a                                                     over a shorter time frame. Where                    identified five creative spaces or more)
as clusters of creative workspace,       financial value to the benefit creative    It is a typical characteristic of         possible, it is helpful to focus on areas           on the GLA infrastructure map yielded
analysing over various time frames,      industries bring to these areas,           residential performance that areas do     that have had a consistent and longer-              similar results. This wider definition of
seeking to identify the level of         expressed in house price data.             not tend to outperform consistently       term change to the dynamic of the                   creative clusters encompassed places
outperformance in house price data       Over a 10-year time frame, this            over the long term, as the per annum      market, hence the 10-year horizon.                  such as Peckham and Brixton.
relative to the wider market.            amounts to 4.4% per annum price            price growth implies. Instead, as
                                         outperformance above the wider             areas undergo change, like creative       Furthermore, expanding this house
                                         London residential market, a total of      workspace gaining critical mass,          price matrix to include postcodes with
                                         44% over 10 years.                         there tends to be a step change           a slightly lower number of creative
                                                                                    in residential values. As such, the

26                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     27
3    Quantitative Analysis                                                                                                       3               Quantitative Analysis
3.3	Price Analysis: Exploring the Relationship Between Creative 		                                                              3.3             Price Analysis: Exploring the Relationship Between Creative
     Workspace and Residential Demand                                                                                                            Workspace and Residential Demand
                                                                                                                               Section 5

                                                                                                                               Subheading: Research approach Thames Estuary

                                                                                                                                                   Ratio of London to UK & Outer South East house prices
Rental market analysis: London             Research approach: Thames                 creative industries, cultural heritage     Ratio of London to UK & Outer South East house prices
                                                                                                                               London
                                                                                                                                Due to house  price
                                                                                                                                       stronger     growth
                                                                                                                                                London      in recent
                                                                                                                                                        house          years has
                                                                                                                                                                price growth     beenofmultiples
                                                                                                                                                                             the ratio  London toofouter
                                                                                                                                                                                                    that evident in rest
                                                                                                                                                                                                         South East  and of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         UKUK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            house
Where there is a flow-on to higher         Estuary:                                  and world-class art educational           and Southeast
                                                                                                                                prices has widened significantly.
residential demand, it will affect         A very similar approach was adopted       institutions. The scale of creative
rental values as well as sales             for the Thames Estuary. For this          workspaces is typically larger,            2.4

pricing. Looking at the same               analysis, the location selection          too. The Thames Estuary creative
                                                                                                                                2.2
postcode sectors, there has been           was led by Creative Estuary’s             clusters are in an earlier phase of
outperformance in rental growth            knowledge of the key creative clusters    the creative lifecycle; nonetheless,       2.0

terms, too. Rental growth typically        (underpinned by work on the TEPC          there is a quantifiable association
                                                                                                                                1.8
moves in more muted cycles than            Case for Investment), and their term      between creative workspace and
sales pricing, tending to change in line   creative workspace was more loosely       residential outperformance in all of       1.6

with earnings.                             defined (often smaller in scale and       these locations, albeit more marginal
                                           with a wider range of creative uses       in some.
                                                                                                                                1.4

In our creative cluster study locations,   taken as evidence). Given the less                                                   1.2

there is evidence of rental growth         mature nature of some of these            Notably, the results of the Thames
outperforming the London average by        creative clusters, the window of house    Estuary price analysis are reported        1.0
                                                                                                                                         1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
2.6% per annum over a 5-year period        price data analysis was reduced to        separately to London to acknowledge
(again analysing the window of best        five years.                               these differences. In many ways,                                             Ratio of London to UK house prices
performance in each location).                                                       London provides a roadmap for what                                           Ratio of London house prices to outer South East
                                           Research results: Thames                  is possible in a more mature market.
                                           Estuary:                                  Margate is the best example for the
                                           Like London, this analysis showed         Thames Estuary, of a step change in
                                           that, on average, there was price         house price performance. It is furthest
                                           outperformance in these clusters          from London and has established its
                                           relative to the wider market              own identity as a creative place.
                                           (benchmarked against all the                                                                              Cluster Size
                                                                                                                                                                          Outperformance
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Strongest
                                           local authorities making up the           Like London City Island, Thurrock                                                   vs Thames Estuary
                                                                                                                                        Place     (Thames Estuary                                      performance:
                                                                                                                                                                        region: total (annual
                                           Thames Estuary). On average, this         demonstrates outperformance, but                               Encyclopedia)                                       5 years to:
                                                                                                                                                                             equivalent)
                                           outperformance was 3% per annum,          the outperformance isn’t necessarily
                                           derived from total outperformance of      a creative story; here too, there has            Southend            10                4.9% (1.0%)                2020
                                           17% over the five-year period.            been a significant pipeline of new
                                                                                     build housing in the surrounding                 Margate             13               33.5% (6.7%)                2018
                                           The level of outperformance is            postcodes, which has helped lift
                                           lower than witnessed in London,           pricing across the area. Thurrock                Basildon            15               14.6% (2.9%)                2019
                                           affected by a few fundamental market      though, given its proximity to London,           Thurrock            2                24.3% (4.9%)                2018
                                           characteristics. For one, London as       is particularly well placed to benefit
                                           a whole has seen significantly higher     from spillover demand from creatives             Medway              16                6.0% (1.2%)                2015
                                           levels of price growth over the last      as well as catering for endogenous
                                           decade than outside of London.            demand.                                          Total
                                                                                                                                                                           16.6% (3.3%)
                                           London’s stronger price growth has                                                         Average
                                           led to the widest differential in ratio   These creative clusters are examined
                                           of prices between London and the          in more detail in the case studies.         Source: Dataloft, Land Registry, Thames Estuary Production Corridor Evidence
                                           regions since reliable regional house                                                 Encyclopaedia.
                                                                                                                                 Note: all pricing based on per sq ft.
                                           price data began in the 1970s.

                                           The dynamism of a global city
                                           like London is distinguished by its
                                           scale and long association with

28                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  29
3    Quantitative Analysis                                                                                              3    Quantitative Analysis
3.4	Risk Analysis                                                                                                      3.4	Risk Analysis

The analysis described in this             same in each scenario, while variables   cashflow and residual appraisal,                                                  Difference           Difference                       Difference Chance of Difference
section, tests what, if any, level of      relating to the commercial/ground        with a base model to show a                                           Profit                                                 Residual
                                                                                                                                  Hackney Wick                            vs     NPV (DCF)     vs                               vs      residual     vs
                                                                                                                                                        (cashflow)                                                value
risk is introduced when creative           floor uses are varied. It must be        central tendency and a risk                                                        creative             creative                         creative   below 0   creative
workspace is included in a residential     emphasised that:                         model exploring uncertainty
development scheme, in place of an                                                  around that base by altering        Build for sale
alternative use.                             a. This is not a formal valuation      the variables relating to the use   Base model, creative           £40,134,098         0       £31,920,279       0       £21,376,959        0
                                                and should not be treated           of the ground floor commercial
                                                                                                                        Risk model                     £41,762,841         0       £31,427,010       0       £21,088,896        0        1.53%         0
If there is a positive, albeit variable,        as such. The aim is to use          space. Full details of the
impact of the presence of creative                                                  method are included in the          Base model, extra flats        £40,192,322       0.15%     £31,662,152    (0.81%)    £21,608,055      1.08%
                                                a notional model to explore
workspace on housing values, it                 plausible scenarios.                Technical Appendix, but the         Risk model                     £42,528,422       1.83%     £32,432,105     3.20%     £21,998,588      4.31%      1.20%       0.22
then raises the question of how its                                                 model is a 250 flat scheme
                                             b. It is not in any way an attempt                                         Base model, light industrial   £38,398,080       (4.33%)   £30,164,430    (5.50%)    £20,109,148     (5.93%)
inclusion in a residential development                                              with 2,000 sq m net of either
                                                to model existing projects,                                             Risk model                     £39,986,554       (4.25%)   £29,667,472    (5.60%)    £19,808,237     (6.07%)     2.06%       0.35
will impact on the overall project                                                  creative workspace, additional
                                                which were developed at
performance.                                                                        flats or speculative light          Build for rent
                                                different times and under
                                                                                    industrial space (which could
                                                different property market and                                           Base model, creative           £32,345,124         0       £15,414,104       0       £14,537,064        0
To address this question, we consider                                               be let to a creative or any other
                                                economic circumstances.                                                 Risk model                     £50,200,640         0       £28,394,376       0       £26,452,881        0        0.00%         0
each case study area and test the                                                   business).
financial performance of a notional                                                                                     Base model, extra flats        £32,006,118       (1.05%)   £14,169,037    (8.08%)    £14,400,119     (0.94%)
scheme at today’s prices and yields.         c. Three methods of analysis are                                           Risk model                     £52,077,804       3.74%     £29,495,699     3.88%     £27,976,331      5.76%      0.00%       0.00
The residential values are held the             deployed: cashflow, discounted
                                                                                                                        Base model, light industrial   £30,609,106       (5.37%)   £13,658,256    (11.39%)   £13,269,253     (8.72%)
                                                                                                                        Risk model                     £48,932,634       (2.53%)   £26,877,213    (5.34%)    £25,165,407     (4.87%)     0.00%       0.00

                                                                                                                        Hackney Wick – mature cluster                The Risk model returns a profit of              Scenario 3: with light industrial
                                                                                                                        Hackney Wick is arguably London’s            £41.7m (NPV: £31.4m; Residual:                  on the ground floor.
                                                                                                                        most mature creative workspace               £21.1m), and the similarity with the            The Base model results for
                                                                                                                        cluster, and it sits within a larger         Base model illustrates that the market          speculative light industrial are 4-5%
                                                                                                                        creative hotspot that runs from              here is mature and well understood,             below the creative workspace option.
                                                                                                                        Homerton to Bow, nascent before              with central assumptions capturing              This reflects the additional risk of
                                                                                                                        and driven on after the Olympic Park         risk well.                                      letting voids and the absence of long-
                                                                                                                        regeneration.                                                                                term income security, both of which
                                                                                                                                                                     Scenario 2: with extra flats on the             negatively impact the investment yield
                                                                                                                        Scenario 1: with creative                    ground floor                                    applied to this element of the scheme.
                                                                                                                        workspace on the ground floor                The Base model produces strikingly
                                                                                                                        The Base model shows a gross                 similar results, with a profit of £40.1m        In Hackney Wick, the results of the
                                                                                                                        profit of £40.1m, an NPV of £31.9m           (NPV: £31.7m; Residual: £21.6m),                risk analysis reflect a mature market
                                                                                                                        and residual value of £21.3m. The            within around 1% of scenario 1.                 with well understood values. While the
                                                                                                                        residual value returned is comfortably                                                       strong performance of building extra
                                                                                                                        above VOA estimates of residential           The Risk model shows marginally                 flats is not surprising, it is noteworthy
                                                                                                                        development land values, and things          better performance for a pure                   that this option was not as dominant
                                                                                                                        would have to go catastrophically            residential scheme (profit: £42.5m;             as might intuitively be expected.
                                                                                                                        wrong for the 1.5% chance of a               NPV: £32.4m; Residual: £22m),
                                                                                                                        negative residual to be a meaningful         which – perhaps unsurprisingly –
                                                                                                                        factor.                                      illustrates the lower risk of residential
                                                                                                                                                                     development.

30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          31
You can also read