Investor Presentation - Advanced Info Service Plc. May 2018 Ticker: ADVANC (SET) - Advanced Info Services Public ...
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Investor Presentation
Advanced Info Service Plc.
May 2018
Ticker: ADVANC (SET)
AVIFY (ADR)
Add AIS IR LINE@
AIS: Digital Life Service Provider
Lead and digitally transform in Grow stronger in Partner to offer differentiated
“Mobile” “Fixed broadband” “Digital service”
Mobile revenue market share Subscriber market share Focused on FOUR key areas
(approx.8.2mn)
27%
48% 34%
4Q17
21%
4Q17
25%
6.4% Mobile
40% Video
money
1Q18 breakdown
prepaid postpaid
Bt31bn Enterprise
IoT Business
19% 4th year of operation in 2018
60% Mobile 43%
data
81% covering 50 key cities out of
40% Voice 57% 77 provinces
Mobile revenue subs % to mobile expect to cover 6mn homepass*
40.1mn revenue out of total 21.5m households
Digital life service provider with convergence products
Mark leadership in mobile data Aim to be a significant player in Pursue long-term growth with
• Nationwide 4G/3G/2G coverage 2020 integrated services
with focus on network quality • Leverage existing nationwide fibre • Emphasize partnership &
• Focus on scale to maintain cost infrastructure ecosystem
advantage • Defensive value to core mobile • Leverage the large sub base and
business telecom infrastructure
*Homepass is defined as a number of households within AIS fibre service area. This includes the homes that require additional investment i.e.
port, last miles to be able to get connected.
2
AIS’ digital transformation toward 2020
Next Generation Next Generation Next Generation Next Generation
Network Economy Xperience Team
Network Function Contents and Full Service
Customer Value Organization
Virtualization & Enterprise Digitization
Management Transformation
Cloudification Segments
• > 90%
Target 2020
• Expand revenue • Move to ARPH • Provide shops & • Data-driven
cloudification contribution of • Improve revenue services that organization &
• Network enterprise business assurance and never sleep culture
virtualization ready from 9% to 25% add valued users
for 5G
• 5G future-proof New opportunities: Data-driven • Digitize all • Organization
Strategy toward 2020
networks • IoT analysis based on customer readiness for
• SME & R-SME customer insights: journeys digital disruption
• IT legacy • Managed
transformed to Security Bundle mobile, • AI/Chatbots • Leverage
Cloud-friendly • Mobile Digital fibre & content via embedded into capabilities and
network Marketing FMC all self-service create synergies
architecture channels in value chain
Maximize value of
supporting digital
contents in
• AI for network • Deployment of business
customer retention
operation OMNI channels objectives
and branding
3
1Q18 Quarterly Summary
Service revenue improved in all segments Strategic executions
(Bt mn)
Service ▲6.5% YoY Expand into enterprise market
revenue
34,565 ▲2.5% QoQ
• Paid Bt3.4bn for 81.47% of CSL’s shares
▲3.1% YoY
Mobile 31,172 ▲0.5% QoQ • Fully consolidated since Feb-18
• Incurred goodwill of Bt2.8bn
▲85% YoY • Final tender offer until 6-Jul at Bt7.80/share
FBB 1,013
▲6% QoQ • 7.6GB/sub of mobile
▲63% YoY
data consumption
Others 962 • 51k of FBB net addition Widen e-service/mobile payment to
▲51% QoQ
• CSL revenue Thai users
IC & IC & ▲31% YoY
Equipment 1,418 consolidation
equipment rental ▲28% QoQ
rental • Paid Bt788mn to buy 1/3 JV stake with
Rabbit and LINE
• Utilize each party’s strength in subscriber
Cost controlled resulted in profit expansion base, distribution channel, and brand
EBITDA (Bt mn) NPAT (Bt mn) Officially signed 2100MHz contract
▲9% YoY ▲4.5% YoY
▲2.4% QoQ • Improved service • Agreements effective since 1-Mar
▲4.4% QoQ
20,000 10,000
revenue • Equipment rental agreement
8,000
15,000
18,905 • Roaming agreement
10,000
6,000 8,037 • Lower regulatory
5,000
4,000
fee, network OPEX, • Net financial impact remains relatively the
2,000
- - and controlled same at a net cost of Bt3.9bn/year
1Q18 1Q18 handset subsidies
4
FY18 Guidance (maintained)
Item FY18 Guidance
• 2% of which comes from CSL
Service revenue • Increasing data usage on 4G and fixed broadband
+7-8% YoY subscriber base
(ex. IC) • Moderate growth in enterprise business with synergy from
CSL
Decline and make
Sale revenue • More targeted marketing campaigns
near-zero margin
EBITDA margin 45-47% • Improving revenue and continuing cost management
• Strengthen 4G capacity to support mobile data growth
Cash CAPEX Bt35-38bn using advanced technology
• Expand fixed-broadband coverage and last miles
Minimum 70% payout of
Dividend policy • Preserve financial health and flexibility for future growth
NPAT
5
Mobile: Drive 4G users through valued offerings
Business direction in 2018 4G adoption continued uptrend
Key driver
• Increasing 4G penetration and 4G handset penetration
data usage 3G handset penetration
Mobile data revenue (% to mobile revenue)
• Continue to improve network and 56% 53% 50% 60%
49% 46%
brand perception 50%
Strategy
39% 42%
35% 46% 40%
• Target uplifted offerings through 43%
30%
customer value management
20%
program 53% 55% 58% 59% 60%
10%
• Convergence of mobile, FBB, and 0%
video content targeting revenue per
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
household and brand value
Focus on postpaid and maintain competitiveness in prepaid
• Postpaid segment grew Prepaid statistics in 1Q18 Postpaid statistics in 1Q18
robustly following
popularity of video -5%
streaming on mobile YoY
flat
-5%
+14% YoY +14% +61% 3.6%
• Prepaid segment YoY YoY +2% +100%
YoY
YoY YoY 1.4%
softened due to
32 7.6 17 13 184 578 7 9.2
prepaid-to-postpaid
conversion and Subscriber Revenue ARPU VOU Churn rate
competition (mn) (Bt bn) (Bt/month) (GB/month) (/month)
6
Mobile: Build end-to-end customer satisfaction
Reinforce OMNI channel and privilege
End-to-end customer
engagement
Increase brand perception in both online & teen segment
Strong
branding Partner with CH3
Zeed SIM for
to co-market teenagers
“Love Destiny”
Product Focus on valued-product proposition
differentiation
Increase Maintain level Targeted
FMC revenue per of profitable offerings
household subsidies
Great network Ensure proper investment and strong spectrum position
quality
55 Low- and Advanced solutions
MHz high-band with pre-5G network
spectrum planning
7
FBB: Industry expanding into fibre-to-the-home
Thai fixed broadband market FBB subscriber market share Industry ARPU
38% market penetration with majority using xDSL Total est.8.2mn users Maintained at around
Bt600/month
Broadband users (mn)
ARPU (Bt/month)
% household peneration 34% 637
635
34% 38% 21%
26% 29% 4Q17 600
6.4% 541
510
6.2 7.2 8.2 40%
5.4
4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Competitive fibre pricing with higher speed at same price
ARPU (Bt/month)
1000
Current fibre plans
800
100Mbps packages are recently affordable
at below Bt1,000
600
400
Typical package for new fixed broadband
customers remained at Bt600, targeting new
and ADSL users
200
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Download speed (Mbps)
8
AIS Fibre continues to focus on quality customers
with improved acquisition rate
AIS Fibre performance
FBB subscriber (‘000) FBB net additions (‘000)
Focus on existing
ARPU (Baht/month)
50 cities, covering
637 635 618 6mn homepass
1,200 600 650
1,000
541
100
800
482 521 572 550 72 72
600 374 446 51
50 36 40
400 450
200
- 350
- Synergy with CSL in
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 condo segment
• Acquire quality subscribers through
convergence services of “Power4” and
“Family Extra” packages
Join AIS Fibre + up to 4 AIS mobile numbers, get extra privileges for a family
Free 2GB Free call
Mobile data to 1 AIS number Pure fixed
broadband 14% Convergence
Get privileges for 86%
Serenade Emerald
HBO movies & series on mobile and extra meals & movies
+ World class cartoons at home privileges AIS Fibre customers by segment
9
Digital services: add on variety of contents &
expand further into digital money segment
Digital contents AIS Rabbit LINE-Pay
Digital contents
2 new channels including CNN and Cartoon Network,
available on AIS PLAY and PLAYBOX • On 5th March 2018 ,AIS, through mPAY, has
entered into 33.33% stake (Bt788mn) in a joint
venture with Rabbit LINE Pay, an e-Money
platform that connect with Bangkok Mass
Transits and is embedded in Line chat
application.
on the go at home • Strengthen AIS’ digital life service provider
position by leveraging customer bases,
available on both AIS PLAY and AIS PLAYBOX platform, channels of AIS and partners to
enhance mobile money for both AIS and non-
AIS customers
Continued to add value and
create differentiation through digital contents
On top packages: Mao Mao Entertain
Free internet in
ViU, Hook, Karaoke apps
Bt19/day
Korean series
512Kbps*
+ or
Hollywood movies
Bt34/day for
UL 4Mbps +8.5mn users
+2.6mn users +45mn users
Karaoke
*FUP: speed drop to 64kbps after 300MB 10Enterprise: CS LOXINFO Business Integration
Enterprise revenue market share
18%
Bt56bn 23%
ICT & Mobile enterprise 5%
market in 2017
Before M&A After M&A
Strengthen position in
enterprise market
Lower inter. bandwidth cost COST SYNERGY
Asset light models
Own fiber infrastructure ✓ Operate CSL’s services with lower OPEX
Data center outside BKK REVENUE SYNERGY Data center in inner BKK
✓ Cross sell & upsell potential from larger customer
Large size corporate customers Mid-size corporate customers
base and complementary product portfolio
Sizable corporate mobile base ✓ Widen Data Center propositions and target Well-known brand with good
segments service quality
Economies of scale OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY Strong and experienced sales
✓ Sales & Marketing alignment and technical support in ICT
✓ Leverage sale and technical expertise
✓ Align product roadmap
Expected to realize synergy in 1-2 years
11APPENDIX
121Q18 Financial Highlights
FY18
Bt mn 1Q17 4Q17 1Q18 %YoY %QoQ
Guidance
Mobile revenue 30,226 31,016 31,172 ▲3.1% ▲0.5%
Fixed broadband revenue 549 956 1,013 ▲85% ▲6.0%
Other revenues* 589 639 962 ▲63% ▲51%
Service revenue ex. IC & equipment
31,364 32,611 33,147 ▲5.7% ▲1.6% +7-8% YoY
rental
IC and equipment rental 1,087 1,107 1,418 ▲31% ▲28%
Service revenue 32,451 33,717 34,565 ▲6.5% ▲2.5%
SIM and device sales 6,407 7,488 6,368 ▼0.6% ▼15% decline
Total revenue 38,858 41,205 40,933 ▲5.3% ▼0.7%
Cost of service (16,256) (17,018) (17,281) ▲6.3% ▲1.5%
SG&A (5,439) (6,338) (6,336) ▲17% stable
EBITDA 17,347 18,454 18,905 ▲9.0% ▲2.4%
EBIT 10,430 10,290 10,826 ▲3.8% ▲5.2%
NPAT 7,693 7,701 8,037 ▲4.5% ▲4.4%
Capex (11,509) (7,286) (6,467) ▼44% ▼11% Bt35-38bn
Sales margin -6.7% -0.6% -1.1% ▲560bps ▼50bps near-zero
EBITDA margin 44.6% 44.8% 46.2% ▲160bps ▲140bps 45-47%
EBIT margin 26.8% 25.0% 26.4% ▼40bps ▲140bps
NPAT margin 19.8% 18.7% 19.6% ▼20bps ▲90bps
*Other revenues include enterprise data services, including CSL and other revenues
13Improved EBITDA from better revenue growth
and well-managed costs
1Q18 EBITDA (YoY) (Bt mn)
+9.0% YoY
2,115 (232) 359 (868)
340 (156) 18,905
17,347
1Q17 Service Service cost Reg fee Net sales SG&A Others 1Q18
revenue
1Q18 EBITDA (QoQ) (Bt mn)
+2.4% QoQ
848 (192) 21
(174) (23) (29) 18,905
18,454
4Q17 Service Service cost Reg fee Net sales SG&A Others 1Q18
revenue
14Net profit rose from strong EBTIDA despite 4G and
fixed broadband investment
EBITDA & margin Net profit & margin
EBITDA (Bt bn)
EBITDA margin, excluding TOT equipment rental (%)
Net profit (Bt bn) Net profit margin (%)
46.9%
44.6% 44.8%
24.0 45.0%
12.0 19.8% 18.7% 19.6%
22.0 11.0
40.0%
20.0 18.5 18.9 10.0
17.3 35.0% 9.0
7.7 7.7 8.0
18.0 +9.0% YoY 8.0
30.0% +4.5% YoY
16.0 +2.4% QoQ 7.0
14.0 25.0% 6.0 +4.4% QoQ
20.0% 5.0
12.0
4.0
10.0 15.0% 3.0
1Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1Q17 4Q17 1Q18
• 1Q18 EBITDA rose YoY and QoQ, 1Q18 net profit grew YoY and QoQ from
underpinned by decent revenue momentum improved EBITDA despite increased D&A
and ongoing cost optimization program. from 4G investment.
• Excluding impact from TOT equipment rental,
EBITDA margin improved to 46.9% and
aligned with the full year guidance of 45-47%.
15Maintained financial flexibility for future growth
1Q18 Balance Sheet 1Q18 Cash flow
(Bt bn) (Bt bn) Cash increase Cash decrease
others A/P
spectrum license Operating Investing Financing Net cash
spectrum 21 34 payable 18.1
license
106 74
Assets Liabilities goodwill
3 9.3
6.5
239 4.2
B/S
287 2.2
1Q18 interest- 0.4 0.3 0.4
101 bearing
CAPEX
Income
tax paid
Finance cost
cash flow
decreased
Cash
Operating
acquisition
JV & Business
Repayment of
Others
borrowings
debt
134 Equity
48
PPE 27
22 others
18 26
A/R 8
retained earnings
cash others CAPEX continued to decline to Bt6.5bn or 19% to
service revenue after completing nationwide 4G at
end of 2016
1.2X 2.1X
Operating cash flow remained strong to support
Net debt to EBITDA Interest bearing debt
to Equity future investment
Average finance costs = 3.2% p.a.
• Maintaining investment grade credit ratings
0.5X 65% • Fitch: national rating AA+ (THA), outlook stable
Current ratio Return on Equity • S&P: BBB+, outlook negative
16Mobile: 40.1m subs with expanding postpaid segment
Subscribers (mn) postpaid prepaid ARPU (Bt/sub/month) postpaid prepaid blended
34.0 33.5 33.0 32.7 32.4 579 593 590 581 578
244 251 254 256 257
6.7 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 181 182 182 183 184
Net addition (‘000) VOU (GB/data sub/month)
232 330 235 227
163
7.6
5.7 4.0 6.7 7.5 5.4 5.9 8.3 6.2 6.7 9.2 7.0
3.5 4.7
-233 4.1
-294
-615 -504 -523
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18
• Mobile subscribers was at 40.1mn, a slight drop of • Blended ARPU improved Bt1 QoQ, reaching Bt257
5.5k QoQ from lower prepaid users. from larger postpaid mix.
• Postpaid subscribers grew 227k QoQ from bundled • Blended VOU increased to 7.6GB from increasing
package offerings and migration from prepaid. 4G adoption and popularity of video streaming.
• Prepaid subscribers decreased 233k QoQ due to
migration to postpaid and market competition.
17Mobile price plans: Target better ARPU and build
differentiation on postpaid
Unlimited data usage with capped-speed packages Full 4G speed packages
• Offer unlimited data usage at different • Attract new data users and encourage higher ARPU
speeds for diverse needs e.g. chat, social subscriptions through premium VDO contents e.g. AIS
networks, music, HD video streaming PLAY, Premier package, HOOQ, and Netflix
• Encourage customers to move from prepaid • 4G speed with FUP, reduced speed after reaching the data
to postpaid subscription with worry-free plan usage limit
• Serve high-end heavy data users with real unlimited max
speed experience
Buffet Net Plus 4G MAX SPEED
4G/3G FUP after Call all
Monthly Call within Enjoy Monthly Total
Unlimited internet reach data networks Enjoy Free
Fee (Bt) AIS (mins) Free Fee (Bt)
max speed at usage limit (mins)
5 numbers 299 1GB 100
299 1Mbps
24 hr. 1 month 1 month
399 3GB 150
450 2Mbps 128kbps
499 7GB 200
550 4Mbps Unlimited
5am – 5pm 599 10GB 250
600 6Mbps 3 months
799 15GB 350 3 months
*AIS WIFI is included in all packages.
384kbps
999 20GB 450
1,099 650
1,299 Unlimited 850
at max -
1,499 speed 1,200
3 months
1,899 2,000
*AIS WIFI is included in all packages.
18
Updated: May-18Mobile market share by subscribers
Total subscriber (mn)
92 96 90 90
75 83 83
25% 25%
25% 23% 27% 30%
25% Operator 3
30% 29% 27%
32% 31% 25%
31% Operator 2
45% 46% 46% 46% 45% AIS
44% 43%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
* 2016 2017
Postpaid subscriber (mn) Prepaid subscriber (mn)
81 83
74 68 73 70
68 24%
20 24%
25% 25%
18 25% 21% 29%
14 35% 29%
7.4 9.1 11 13 34% 32%
30%
31% 27%
33% 31% 24%
31% 28%%
23% 29% 29%
29% 31% 30%
31% 32% 45% 47% 48% 48% 47%
32% 37% 44% 43%
39% 39% 38% 37%
45% 41%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 * 2016 2017
* In 2015, sub base of the industry was affected by the adjustment of prepaid sub reporting to reflect only active ones. The decrease in sub base also
caused by NBTC’s announcement requiring prepaid sub to register their SIMs. The SIMs that failed to register by the deadline were terminated.
19FBB: Competitive price plans with differentiation
Bt599/month Bt399/month Bt299/month Bt199/month
20Historical profitability and CAPEX trend
Industry AIS
EBITDA margin
45% 42% 42% 44% 46% 40% 45%
36% 32% 32% 33% 33% 32% 36%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Industry AIS
NPAT margin
24% 24% 24% 25% 20%
14%18% 14% 19%
13% 9% 13% 9% 8%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
AIS’ CAPEX to service revenue ex. IC AIS’ CAPEX (Bt bn)
41% 32
24% 28% 27%
CAPEX
6% 9%
48
41
10 28 33 32
6
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: company data
21Debt payment and License payment schedule
Spectrum license payment schedule* Debt repayment Schedule
900x10MHz license payment (Bt bn) Debenture (Bt bn) Loan (Bt bn)
1800x15MHz license payment (Bt bn)
59.6
Total payment of
Bt78bn toward 2020
24.8
13.9 13.3 14.2
14.3 2.8 11.2
6.4 6.6 7.2 9.0
4.0 3.4 12.1
4.0
10.2 7.8 7.8 0.0
1.8
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Note: 1800x15MHz license: the total payment is Bt40,986m for the use of 18 years, expiring in 2033
900x10MHz license: the total payment is Bt75,654m for the use of 15 years, expiring in 2031
22Distribution Channel
expanding touch points to +400k
AIS Branded Shop Exclusive branded shop by AIS Buddy
partner (Telewiz)
100+ shops 450+ shops 1,000+ shops
Electronic Distribution Channels Modern Trade Outlets
400k+ points 10k+ shops
(refill-on–mobile Auto top-up
agent ) KIOSK
23Digital content: More varieties and exclusivities
Introduced new content packages to attract customers with different preferences e.g. sport,
family, movies at more affordable prices on both AIS PLAY and AIS PLAYBOX.
NEW NEW
Mobile
Ultimate Ultimate Movies and Exclusive sport
entertainment entertainment series from entertainment
+ Unlimited Bt299month HBO Bt199month
internet Bt199month
Bt499/month
Fixed broadband
NEW NEW NEW
Ultimate Ultimate World class Thrilling
entertainment movies & series cartoons sports matches
in all forms Bt399month Bt299month Bt199month
Bt599/month
24Contact us IR website: http://investor.ais.co.th Email: investor@ais.co.th Tel: +662 029 5014 Disclaimers Some statements made in this material are forward-looking statements with the relevant assumptions, which are subject to various risks and uncertainties. These include statements with respect to our corporate plans, strategies and beliefs and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may”, “will”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “estimate”, “continue” “plan” or other similar words. The statements are based on our management’s assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These assumptions involve risks and uncertainties which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Please note that the company and executives/staff do not control and cannot guarantee the relevance, timeliness, or accuracy of these statements.
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