JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc - January 2020 - JP Morgan Asset Management

Page created by Carrie Mullins
 
CONTINUE READING
JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc
January 2020
Investment objective and risk profile
JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc

    Investment objective
    The Company’s investment objective is to provide capital growth from Indian investments by outperforming the MSCI India Index.
    The company will invest in a diversified portfolio of quoted Indian companies and companies that earn a material part of their
    revenues from India. The company will not invest in other countries of the Indian sub continent including Sri Lanka. The company has
    the ability to use borrowing to gear the portfolio to up to 15% of net assets where appropriate.

Risk profile
    The value of investments and the income from them can go down and up, and you may not get back as much as you paid in. Past performance is not a
     guide to the future.

    Exchange rate changes may cause the value of underlying overseas investments to go down as well as up.

    Investments in emerging markets may involve a higher element of risk due to political and economic instability and underdeveloped markets and
     systems. Shares may also be traded less frequently than those on established markets. This means that there may be difficulty in both buying and
     selling shares and individual share prices may be subject to short-term price fluctuations.

    External factors may cause an entire asset class to decline in value. Prices and values of all shares or all bonds could decline at the same time.

    This trust may utlilise gearing (borrowing) which will exaggerate market movements both up and down.

    This trust may also invest in smaller companies which may increase its risk profile.

Please refer to the Investor Disclosure Document, latest annual report, and Key Information Document (KID) for more information relating to the Company

1
Performance and Positioning

2
Performance
JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc as of 31st December 2019
                                                                                                      Market value
                                                                                                      JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc (Diluted)                     GBP 831.0m^

Annualised performance (%)
                                                           Three            Six                                One               Three           Five             Ten             Since
                                                                                              YTD
                                                          months           Months                              year              years          years            years          Inception#

    JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc                    -4.02            -7.03            -0.70            -0.70             5.88              7.18           7.04             8.71

    MSCI India Index (NDR)*                                 -2.05            -4.04            3.42             3.42              8.87              8.55           5.93             6.96

    Excess return (Geometric)                               -2.02            -3.12            -3.99            -3.99             -2.75             -1.26          1.04             1.64

Calendar year performance (%)

                                                               2013                  2014             2015              2016                2017               2018               2019

    JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc                       -6.43              43.71               3.59              15.01              29.87               -7.95              -0.70

    MSCI India Index (NDR)*                                    -5.62              31.57               -0.69             17.57              26.74               -1.54              3.42

    Excess return (Geometric)                                  -0.86                 9.22             4.31               -2.18              2.46               -6.51              -3.99

    ^JPM shadow valuation, # Inception: 1 July 1994 * Prior to 1 Oct 2003, BSE100 index
    Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream. Net asset value performance data has been calculated on a NAV to NAV (using the cum income NAV with debt at fair)
    basis, including ongoing charges and any applicable fees, with any income reinvested, in GBP.
    Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results

3
Top 10 contributors/detractors to active returns
                                                                                                                                                          Benchmark              MSCI India
JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc CY2019

                                                                                                                           Weight difference           Stock return                 Impact
    Top 10 contributors                                      Country                    Sector                                    %                         %                         %
Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited                                India                      Financials                                   4.75                    25.88                     0.91
HDFC Bank Limited                                          India                      Financials                                   9.49                    13.74                     0.91
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.                                   India                      Consumer Discretionary                      -1.36                    -36.94                    0.74
Yes Bank Limited                                           India                      Financials                                  -0.66                    -65.90                    0.66
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited                  India                      Financials                                   1.33                    52.60                     0.55
Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd.                            India                      Financials                                  -0.45                    -68.20                    0.51
Jubilant Foodworks Limited                                 India                      Consumer Discretionary                       2.12                    24.52                     0.40
GAIL (India) Limited                                       India                      Utilities                                   -0.70                    -35.14                    0.33
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited                      India                      Communication Services                      -0.57                    -41.75                    0.32
Vodafone Idea Ltd                                          India                      Communication Services                      -0.18                    -71.98                    0.30

                                                                                                                           Weight difference           Stock return                 Impact
    Top 10 detractors                                        Country                    Sector                                    %                         %                         %
Reliance Industries Limited                                India                      Energy                                     -11.19                    27.67                     -2.43
ITC Limited                                                India                      Consumer Staples                             2.76                    -19.02                    -0.84
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd.                India                      Financials                                   1.62                    -34.83                    -0.80
Bharti Airtel Ltd.                                         India                      Communication Services                      -1.86                    49.01                     -0.75
IndusInd Bank Ltd.                                         India                      Financials                                   4.46                    -10.83                    -0.70
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited                           India                      Industrials                                  1.35                    -40.48                    -0.69
Bajaj Finance Limited                                      India                      Financials                                  -1.73                    50.80                     -0.65
Ashok Leyland Limited                                      India                      Industrials                                  1.75                    -22.26                    -0.63
EIH Limited                                                India                      Consumer Discretionary                       1.19                    -31.87                    -0.48
Larsen & Toubro Ltd.                                       India                      Industrials                                  2.91                    -14.18                    -0.44
1 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, MSCI, FactSet, gross of fees in GBP.
  Data for Total Attribution shown (stock selection plus sector allocation). Attribution may not match official returns due to differences in systems, rounding. Past performance is not an indication
  of current and future performance. The portfolio is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment
  Manager without notice. The companies above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.

4
Portfolio positions
                                                                                                                                                               Benchmark               MSCI India
JPMorgan Indian Investment Trust plc as of 31st December 2019

                                                                             Fund                                                                                    Fund                  Relative
    Top 10 holdings                                                        weight (%)                        Top 5 overweights                                     weight (%)            position (%)

Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited                                 10.3                       HDFC Bank Limited                                            9.9                  9.9

                                                                                                           Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited                                  4.9                  4.9
HDFC Bank Limited                                                                9.9
                                                                                                           Tata Consultancy Services Limited                            9.5                  4.4
Tata Consultancy Services Limited                                                9.5
                                                                                                           Maruti Suzuki India Limited                                  6.2                  4.2
Axis Bank Limited                                                                6.5
                                                                                                           IndusInd Bank Ltd.                                           4.1                  4.1

Maruti Suzuki India Limited                                                      6.2
                                                                                                                                                                     Fund                  Relative
                                                                                                             Top 5 underweights                                    weight (%)            position (%)
ITC Limited                                                                      5.4
                                                                                                           Reliance Industries Limited                                  0.0                  -11.3
Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited                                                      4.9
                                                                                                           ICICI Bank Limited                                           2.6                  -4.1
Larsen & Toubro Ltd.                                                             4.4
                                                                                                           Infosys Limited                                              3.1                  -3.4
UltraTech Cement Limited                                                         4.2
                                                                                                           Hindustan Unilever Limited                                   0.0                  -3.3
IndusInd Bank Ltd.                                                               4.1                       Bharti Airtel Ltd.                                           0.0                  -2.4

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.
The holdings represent the current holdings of the fund. However, it cannot be assumed that these types of investments will be available to or will be selected by the fund in the future.

5
India Market Outlook

6
Key Issues

     Slower Growth = fewer opportunities

     Quality earnings with optionality

     Valuations: relying on stock fundamentals

     Idiosyncratic opportunities

     Staying disciplined and true to process

Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change
without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.

7
Growth slump – the key challenge

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in India

    11           (% YoY)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             GDP (Real)

    10

    9

    8

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3
         Jun12

                           Dec12

                                           Jun13

                                                           Dec13

                                                                           Jun14

                                                                                           Dec14

                                                                                                           Jun15

                                                                                                                           Dec15

                                                                                                                                           Jun16

                                                                                                                                                           Dec16

                                                                                                                                                                           Jun17

                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec17

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Dec18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun19
                  Sep12

                                                   Sep13

                                                                                   Sep14

                                                                                                                   Sep15

                                                                                                                                                   Sep16

                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sep19
                                   Mar13

                                                                   Mar14

                                                                                                   Mar15

                                                                                                                                   Mar16

                                                                                                                                                                   Mar17

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar18

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar19
Source: MOSPI, CMIE, CLSA, latest data available as of January 2020

8
Pockets of opportunity

 Titan PAT and ROE                                                                                                                          Jubilant PAT and ROE

                                                  Adj. PAT                       RoE (%)                                                                                              Adjusted PAT                  RoE

                                                                                                                                                       71.7

                                                                                                                                                              67.5
                         50.1

                                                                 49.2

                                                                                                                                                                     48.0
                                                                         48.9

                                                                                                                                                                                          37.6

                                                                                                                                                                                                 36.2
                                                                                                                                                                            30.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                         30.5
                                                                                                                                                                                   28.5
                                 43.4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      25.2
                                                                                  42.5
                                                 42.5
                                         42.4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 21.5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20.3
                                                         41.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         13.0

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                12.7

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       8.7
                  35.5

                                                                                          33.0

                                                                                                  28.0

                                                                                                                                   24.9
                                                                                                                          24.0
                                                                                                                  20.6
                                                                                                          19.7
           19.4

                                                                                                                                               -86.3
    3.7

                                                                                                                                                                                                 1,073

                                                                                                                                                                                                         1,311

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1,182

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,962

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3,180
                                                                                                                                                                                   334

                                                                                                                                                                                          720

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         840

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                968

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       699
                                                                                                                          11,213

                                                                                                                                   13,908

                                                                                                                                                       20

                                                                                                                                                              56

                                                                                                                                                                     77

                                                                                                                                                                            73
                         1,026

                                 1,216

                                         1,620

                                                 2,097

                                                         2,615

                                                                 4,305

                                                                         6,048

                                                                                  7,262

                                                                                          7,411

                                                                                                  8,233

                                                                                                          6,765

                                                                                                                  8,018
           317

                  608
    60

                                                                                                                                               -6
    2003

           2004

                  2005

                         2006

                                 2007

                                         2008

                                                 2009

                                                         2010

                                                                 2011

                                                                         2012

                                                                                  2013

                                                                                          2014

                                                                                                  2015

                                                                                                          2016

                                                                                                                  2017

                                                                                                                          2018

                                                                                                                                   2019

                                                                                                                                               2005

                                                                                                                                                       2006

                                                                                                                                                              2007

                                                                                                                                                                     2008

                                                                                                                                                                            2009

                                                                                                                                                                                   2010

                                                                                                                                                                                          2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                         2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2019
Source: Company, MOSL Research, latest data as of Jan 2020                                                                                  Source: Company, MOSL Research, latest data as of Jan 2020
PAT = Profit after Tax, RoE = Return on Equity                                                                                              PAT = Profit after Tax, RoE = Return on Equity

The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell

9
Credit: contributing to the slowdown

 Total Domestic Credit Growth                                                                     Loan Growth of Non Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs)

                              Total Domestic Credit Growth (%)                                             (% YoY)      Loan growth of NBFCs ex top-rated/PSUs
 20%                                                                                              30                                                   28
 18%                                                                                                           27

 16%                                                                                              25
                                                                                                                            22
 14%
                                                                                                                                          20
 12%                                                                                              20
 10%
     8%                                                                                           15
     6%
     4%                                                                                           10                                                                  8
                                                                                                                                                                                    6
     2%
     0%                                                                                                5
             FY12

                      FY13

                                                                              F19e
                                                  F16

                                                                                        Q2F20e
                                F14

                                         F15

                                                            F17

                                                                     F18

                                                                                                   -
                                                                                                             FY15         FY16          FY17         FY18          FY19         Jun-19

Source: Company Data, RBI, NHB, Morgan Stanley.                                                   Source: CLSA, Company data, latest data available as of January 2020
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based   NBFCs included: DHFL, IBHFL, Reliance Cap, Can Fin, Piramal, Edelweiss,IIFL, JM, Shriram
on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to   Transport, MMFS, Chola, Muthoot, Shriram City, Magma Fincorp, Manappuram
change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.

10
Opportunities: strong getting stronger

 HDFC Bank                                                                                                Bajaj Finance

                                                                                                                                          AUM (Rs bn)          RoE (%) (RHS)
                                                                                                          1,400                                                                               30.0

                                                                                                          1,200
                                                                                                                                                                                              25.0

                                                                                                          1,000
                                                                                                                                                                                              20.0

                                                                                                            800
                                                                                                                                                                                              15.0
                   PAT (INRb)
                                                                                                            600
                   ROE (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                              10.0
                                                                                                            400

                                                                                                                                                                                              5.0
                                                                                                            200
     7     9    11    16     22    29    39    52     67    85 102 123 145 175 211

  FY05         FY07        FY09         FY11        FY13        FY15        FY17         FY19                 -                                                                               -
                                                                                                                    2011     2012     2013    2014      2015   2016   2017     2018   2019

Source: Companies, MOSL Research, latest data available as of January 2020                               Source: Companies, MOSL Research, latest data available as of January 2020. AUM = Assets
PAT = Profit after Tax, ROE = Return on Equity                                                           under Management, ROE = Return on Equity

The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell

11
Asset quality improving

Credit costs

     4.0%          (% of Avg loans)
                                                                                                          Credit costs

     3.5%

     3.0%

     2.5%

     2.0%

     1.5%

     1.0%

     0.5%

     0.0%
            FY03

                        FY04

                                  FY05

                                         FY06

                                                FY07

                                                          FY08

                                                                    FY09

                                                                              FY10

                                                                                         FY11

                                                                                                   FY12

                                                                                                             FY13

                                                                                                                         FY14

                                                                                                                                 FY15

                                                                                                                                           FY16

                                                                                                                                                     FY17

                                                                                                                                                               FY18

                                                                                                                                                                         FY19

                                                                                                                                                                                   FY20CL

                                                                                                                                                                                             FY21CL

                                                                                                                                                                                                         FY22CL
Source: CLSA, Company data, latest data available as of Jan 2020
Banks included: Axis, BOB, BOI, Canara, Corporation, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, OBC, PNB, SBI, Union, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Bank.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change
without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.

12
Axis Bank: An example of opportunity

 Axis Bank

                                                                                                                                 4.1%
                               PAT (INRb)                        Credit Cost (%)                                                                                                      127

                                                                                                                 3.1%

                                                                                                         82
                                                                                                                                                                  2.4%
                                                                                         74
                                                                          62
                                                          52                                                                                          2.2%
                                                                                                  1.2%
                                          42
            25                                                                                                                                                                       1.7%
                   0.8% 34
     1.5%                          0.6%            0.7%            0.7%           0.7%                                                                                 51

                                                                                                                        37              3
                                                                                                                                                       47

        FY10            FY11            FY12           FY13            FY14            FY15           FY16            FY17            FY18           FY19            FY20            FY21

Source: Company, MOSL Research, latest data available as of January 2020
PAT = Profit after Tax
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change
without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.
The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell

13
Earnings remain cyclically depressed – nearly flat for 5 years

BSE Sensex Earnings Per Share (EPS)

                                                                                                                                                                                    FY18-20: 12% CAGR

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2236

                                                                                                                                        FY08-18:
                                                                                                                                       5% CAGR                                                      1488 1723
                                                                                                   FY03-08: 25%                                                                             1373
                                                                                                      CAGR                                                                          1356
                                                                                                                                                              1333 1358 1340
                                                                                                                                                      1179
                                                                                                                                              1109
                                           FY96-03: 1% CAGR                                                                           1024
             FY93-96: 45%
                CAGR                                                                                             833    820    834
                                                                                                          720
                                                                                                   540
                                                                                            446
                                                                                     361
                             250    266    291    278    280                  272
      81      129     181                                       216    236
      FY93

               FY94

                      FY95

                             FY96

                                    FY97

                                           FY98

                                                  FY99

                                                         FY00

                                                                FY01

                                                                       FY02

                                                                              FY03

                                                                                     FY04

                                                                                            FY05

                                                                                                   FY06

                                                                                                          FY07

                                                                                                                 FY08

                                                                                                                        FY09

                                                                                                                               FY10

                                                                                                                                       FY11

                                                                                                                                               FY12

                                                                                                                                                       FY13

                                                                                                                                                               FY14

                                                                                                                                                                      FY15

                                                                                                                                                                             FY16

                                                                                                                                                                                     FY17

                                                                                                                                                                                             FY18

                                                                                                                                                                                                     FY19

                                                                                                                                                                                                            FY20E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     FY21E
Source: Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd. Estimates as of 7th January 2020. CAGR = Cumulative Annual Growth Rate
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change
without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.
The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell

14
Polarisation

 In stock performance…                                                                                                         … and valuations

 (rebased to 100)
     170                                                                                                                       Bharat Heavy Electricals vs.              11x vs. 46x
                                                                                                                               ABB India                                 (FY 21 PE)
     160

     150                                                                                                                       ITC vs.                                   17x vs 52x
                                                                                                                               Hindustan Unilver                         (FY21 PE)
     140

     130                                                                                                                                                                 1.5x vs 12x
                                                                                                                               LIC Housing Finance vs.                   (12 months
     120                                                                                                                       Bajaj Finance                             trailing book
                                                                                                                                                                         value)
     110
                                                                                                                                                                         1.1x vs 6x
                                                                                                                               Shoppers Stop vs.
     100                                                                                                                                                                 (12 month trailing
                                                                                                                               DMart
                                                                                                                                                                         sales)
      90
                     Mar-18

                                  Jun-18

                                                                         Mar-19

                                                                                      Jun-19
           Dec-17

                                               Sep-18

                                                            Dec-18

                                                                                                   Sep-19

                                                                                                                 Dec-19
                                                                                                                                                                         1.1x vs 4.4x
                                                                                                                               State Bank of India vs.                   (12 months
                                                                                                                               HDFC Bank                                 trailing book
                                            Top 10 Stocks            Rest 40 stocks                                                                                      value)

Source: Datastream, UBS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg, latest data available as of January 2020. The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should
not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results

15
Cognitive dissonance

Hindusan Unilever vs ITC                                                                               Reliance: valuations vs returns

                          HUVR P/E (x)                              ITC P/E (x)                                                 ROA (%) (RHS)                            P/E (x)
                                                                                                                                Avg (x)                                  Max (x)
70.0                                                                                                   21.0                     Min (x)                                                                     7.0

                                                                                                                                                                                     17.4
                                                                                                       17.0                                                                                      15.7 6.0
50.0
                                                                                           54.2
                                                                                                                                                         12.3
                                                                                                       13.0                                                                                                 5.0
30.0

                                                                                                        9.0                                                                                                 4.0
                                                                                            18.5                                          8.2
10.0
                             Jul-12

                                                                         Jul-17
                 Apr-11

                                                           Apr-16
                                      Oct-13

                                                                                  Oct-18
       Jan-10

                                                Jan-15

                                                                                             Jan-20
                                                                                                        5.0                                                                                                 3.0

                                                                                                                                                                Apr-16
                                                                                                                       Apr-11

                                                                                                                                 Jul-12

                                                                                                                                           Oct-13

                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-17

                                                                                                                                                                                        Oct-18
                                                                                                              Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                     Jan-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-20
                                                                                                           Source: Companies, MOSL Research, Bloomberg, latest data available as of January 2020
Source: Companies, MOSL Research, Bloomberg, latest data available as of January 2020                      ROA = Return on Assets Ratio
P/E = Price to Earnings Ratio
The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results

16
Valuations: Not cheap, but on cyclically depressed earnings

MSCI India Index P/E ratio                                                                MSCI India Index P/B ratio

25                                       MSCI India                                        7                                       MSCI India
                                                                                                                                                                 PB
                                                                       Fwd PE
23
                                                                                                                                                                 10Y
                                                                       10Y Average         6
21                                                                                                                                                               Average
                                                                                                                                                                 5Y Average
                                                                       5Y Average
19
                                                                                           5
17

15                                                                                         4

13
                                                                                           3
11

 9
                                                                                           2
 7

 5                                                                                         1

                                                                                               1995
                                                                                               1996
                                                                                               1997
                                                                                               1998
                                                                                               1999
                                                                                               2000
                                                                                               2001
                                                                                               2002
                                                                                               2003
                                                                                               2004
                                                                                               2005
                                                                                               2006
                                                                                               2007
                                                                                               2008
                                                                                               2009
                                                                                               2010
                                                                                               2011
                                                                                               2012
                                                                                               2013
                                                                                               2014
                                                                                               2015
                                                                                               2016
                                                                                               2017
                                                                                               2018
                                                                                               2019
     1995
     1996
     1997
     1998
     1999
     2000
     2001
     2002
     2003
     2004
     2005
     2006
     2007
     2008
     2009
     2010
     2011
     2012
     2013
     2014
     2015
     2016
     2017
     2018
     2019

Source: RIMES, MSCI, IBES, Morgan Stanley Research, latest data available as of January   Source: RIMES, MSCI, IBES, Morgan Stanley Research, latest data available as of January
2020                                                                                      2020
Fwd PE = Forward Price to Earning, 10Y = 10 Years, 5Y = 5 Years                           PB = Price to Book, 10Y = 10 Years, 5Y = 5 Years

17
India offers a large universe of investable opportunities

The identification of superior growth, compounded over long periods of time, within an appropriate valuation
                        framework, is the primary way in which we seek to add value to client portfolios.
    A solid in-house research team, analysis tailor-made to long term investing

    101 Indian companies (market capitalisation of USD 1,395 billion) under formal coverage

    68 companies classified as Premium or Quality (market capitalisation of USD 893 billion)

                                                                                              5 year USD expected return (compound annual growth rate)

          For 101 stocks under coverage (market cap weighted)                                                                       11.95%

          For 68 premium and quality stocks (market cap weighted)                                                                   12.40%

          For ‘best 30’ Premium & Quality stocks (market cap weighted)                                                              16.00%

                                                                  ‘Best 30’ Year 6 ROE forecast of 25.85%

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of 20th January 2020. ROE = Return on Equity.
Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

18
Idiosyncratic opportunities

Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX)                                                                                                                                                                                          Apollo Hospitals Enterprise

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 10                                   Free cash flow
  700                                                                                                       Average Daily Value Traded (INR bn)                                                                                           (Rs Bn)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     8
                  FY12 ROE ~ 31%                                                                                                                                                                                                      8
  600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      6
  500
                                                                                                                                                                           FY19 ROE ~ 11%                                                                                                    4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4
  400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2
  300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  -
  200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (0)                                     (1)

  100                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    (2)   (2)
     0                                                                                                                                                                                                                            (4)                           (4)   (4)
                  Jul-12

                                             Jul-13

                                                                        Jul-14

                                                                                                   Jul-15

                                                                                                                              Jul-16

                                                                                                                                                         Jul-17

                                                                                                                                                                                    Jul-18

                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-19
         Mar-12

                           Nov-12
                                    Mar-13

                                                      Nov-13
                                                               Mar-14

                                                                                 Nov-14
                                                                                          Mar-15

                                                                                                            Nov-15
                                                                                                                     Mar-16

                                                                                                                                       Nov-16
                                                                                                                                                Mar-17

                                                                                                                                                                  Nov-17
                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-18

                                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Mar-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-19

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (6)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20EFY21EFY22E

Source: Companies, Bloomberg, MOSL Research, Axis Capital, latest data available as of January 2020
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change
without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met. The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell

19
YES Bank – Oh NO

YES Bank Stock Price                                                                                      YES Bank Price to Book (P/B) Ratio

                                                Price (INR)                                                                    P/B (x)                  Max (x)                     Min (x)
 400                                                                                                       4.0

                                                                                                                                                                   3.3
 300                                                                                                       3.0

 200                                                                                                       2.0

                                                                                                           1.0
 100                                                                                        39                                                                                                   0.4
                                                                                                                                                                  0.4

                                                                                                           0.0
     0

                                                                                                                                      Jul-12
                                                                                                                           Apr-11

                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-16

                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-17
                                                                                                                                               Oct-13

                                                                                                                                                                                        Oct-18
                                                                                                                 Jan-10

                                                                                                                                                         Jan-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-20
                  Apr-11

                             Jul-12

                                                              Apr-16

                                                                       Jul-17
                                       Oct-13

                                                                                 Oct-18
         Jan-10

                                                    Jan-15

                                                                                            Jan-20

Source: MOSL Research, latest data available as of January 2020                                          Source: MOSL Research, latest data available as of January 2020

The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell

20
Summary

     Slower Growth = fewer opportunities

     Quality earnings with optionality

     Valuations: relying on stock fundamentals

     Idiosyncratic opportunities

     Staying disciplined and true to process

Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change
without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met.

21
You can also read