LIVING WITH COVID-19 DURING THE ACUTE OUTBREAK IN ITALY - 3 Release - 25 March 20 - Cortina ...
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LIVING WITH COVID-19
DURING THE ACUTE
OUTBREAK IN ITALY
3° Release – 25 March 20
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reserved
COVID-19: 15+ DAYS AFTER THE
LOCKDOWN
At the time of this 3° writing, Italy is still in the Acute Outbreak, which is the focus of this
document once again.
The Acute Outbreak stage is not simply a function of the number of confirmed cases of an
illness, but the accompanying knock-on effect on the economy, the media and on
consumer confidence.
Uncertainty is the over-riding characteristic across these period. At a time when no-one has
a clear understanding of how events will evolve and yet so many have an (often ill-
informed) opinion, the need to communicate clearly, calmly and regularly
becomes paramount.
Together with closeness and presence, and why not a bit of entertainment, to manage
this period of alienation and melancholy. Without forgetting to sustain media. They
are the key drivers of information and entertainment.
Eight years ago Mario Draghi at the Global investment Conference in London said: “Within
our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. And believe
me, it will be enough”.
During these difficult days for Italy, the Government has declared its ‘whatever it takes’
waiting for the new steps from EU.
Is there a ‘whatever it takes’ for communication? Does is till make sense to talk about brand
and communication?
What made brands an integral part of people’s lives was the ability of offering
practical and emotional values. And it will be the same also in the future to come,
although in different, new and unexpected forms.
This new release is a step ahead to support our clients into monitoring this acute phase.
Although all these difficulties, we think that communication and media still play a
strategic role from an economic as well as social point of view.
2
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reserved
THE WORLD IN LOCKDOWN
3
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reserved
THE PANDEMIA AT A GLANCE
FORECASTS ON ITALIAN GDP
%var. GDP quarters
1Q 2020 2Q 2020
-3,0% -5,0%
vs vs
4Q 2019 1Q 2020
Source: REF Ricerche
THE MARKET VOLATILITY
VIX Index
3 Jan 2007 – 18 March 20
4
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reserved
THE GLOBAL SPREAD IS ACCELERATING.
CURRENTLY IN ITALY MORE THAN 60K CASES
THE COVID-19 DIFFUSION PHASES AROUND THE WORLD – data 05.03.20
Source: McKinsey&Company
THE ITALIAN OUTLOOK ON COVID-19 SPREAD
Trend of detected cases in Italy Characteristics of the detected
infected - %
22.02.20
The most affected locations
Source: Protezione Civile
5
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reserved
THE CONTAGION TIMELINE IN ITALY
1/2
January
23
Whuan and the Province of
Hubei enters in Quarantine
31
Italy bans flights from
China
February
1’ case of contagion
in Italy 21
First launch of special
measures: the Red Zone in
Lodigiano & Vo Euganeo areas
22
(south Lombardy & Veneto)
Schools, sport & entertainment
activities suspended, Public
places closed in Lombardy & 24
Veneto
1000+ infected in Italy 29
6
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reserved
THE CONTAGION TIMELINE IN ITALY
2/2
March
7.375 infected in Italy
Lombardy and other 14 8
provinces become RED ZONE
9.200 infected in Italy
Italy imposes COUNTRY WIDE 9
RESTRICTION
12.400 infected in Italy
The World Health Organization 11
declares coronavirus pandemic
15.100 infected in Italy
Macron announces restriction 12
measures in France
17.600 infected in Italy
Donald Trump declares the national 13
state of emergency in the US
24.700 infected in Italy
In Spain, Sanchez closes 15
the country.
COVID-19 affects 115 countries.
31.500 infected in Italy
After criticism on “herd immunity”, 17
Boris Johnson chooses for UK
quarantine
In Italy the Law Decree
#CuraItalia enhanced restrictive 22
measures
In US 15 states decided for
lockdown 24
7
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reserved
ITALIAN DECREE AND THE RESPONSE FROM
OTHER COUNTRIES TO DEAL WITH THE
EMERGENCY
23 Feb. 2020 Law Decree:
Urgent containment and • The EU suspended the Stability
contrast measures for the and Growth Pact and it gives to
spread of the Covid-19 virus European countries more budget
Red Area: Lodigiano & Vo flexibility to deal with the emergency
Euganeo
• The European Central Bank has
launched the Pandemic
8 Mar. 2020 Prime Minister Decree: Emergency Purchase Program
further provisions for which gives the possibility to
containment and contrast purchase public and private
Covid-19 spread securities up to €750 billion
Red Area: Lombardy and
other 14 provinces • The European Commission has
allocated €37 billion for Europe
9 Mar. 2020 Prime Minister Decree: • Single countries economic
extension of the Red Area to supports:
the whole national territory
Guaranteed
11 Mar. 2020 The WHO certifies Coronavirus liquidity
PIL rate
as a pandemic
Prime Minister Decree: Italy 350 bn€ 20%
suspension of retail
businesses, bar, restaurants Germany 550 bn€ 16%
and all activities relating to
Spain 200 bn€ 16%
personal services
UK 360 bn€ 14%
17 Mar. 2020 Law Decree #CuraItalia:
new measures to support France 300 bn€ 12,5%
workers, families, business
companies and to strengthen
the sanitary system
22 Mar. 2020 Law Decree #CuraItalia:
enhanced restrictive
measures
8
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reserved
AGENDA
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
DAILY LIFE AND PURCHASING
PATTERNS
o SHOPPING & E-COMMERCE
o MEDIA COSUMPTION
o ITALIAN PERSONAS EMERGING
THE EFFECT OF THE LOCKDOWN
o THE IMPACT ON THE SPORT INDUSTRY
o THE NEW ADV BONUS
CONCLUSIONS: MANAGING
UNCERTAINTY WITH CONFIDENCE
9
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reserved
AGENDA
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
DAILY LIFE AND PURCHASING
PATTERNS
o SHOPPING & E-COMMERCE
o MEDIA COSUMPTION
o ITALIAN PERSONAS EMERGING
THE EFFECT OF THE LOCKDOWN
o THE IMPACT ON THE SPORT INDUSTRY
o THE NEW ADV BONUS
CONCLUSIONS: MANAGING
UNCERTAINTY WITH CONFIDENCE
10
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedCONSUMER SENTIMENT
THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IS
STILL FAR AWAY
FEAR IS SPREADING FAST
67%
WORRIED 58%
25% “VERY WORRIED” GREW
17%
FROM 18% TO 24%
1° week 2° week 3° week 4° week
Source: Nielsen Survey «Impact of COVID-19 on Italians» Coronavirus - 2.000 interviews per week, nat. rapr. 18+ yo.
COVID-19 IS A THREAT FOR PUBLIC HEALTH
97% 95%
95% 94%
74% 84% 76% 85% Serious Threat
3° week 4° week 3° week 4° week
Source: YouGov – “COVID-19 Global Tracker” (1.000 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.). SUMMARY T2B.
WILL SUMMER BE THE WATERSHED?
When do you think we’ll get out the crisis?
Week 4 (16-20 March)
DON’T KNOW SUMMER AFTER
11% 62%
Source: YouGov – “COVID-19 Global Tracker” (1.000 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.). SUMMARY T2B.
27%
11
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedIN GOVERNMENT AND IN PUBLIC
HEALTH, WE TRUST
ITALIAN GOVERNMENT
How well or badly do you think the Italian Government is handling the issue of the Coronavirus? (% value T2B – data collected: 18-19 March 2020).
69% 78%
3° week 4° week
Source: YouGov – “COVID-19 Global Tracker” (1.000 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.). SUMMARY T2B.
PUBLIC HEALTH
How well or badly do you think the Italian Public Health is handling the issue of the Coronavirus? (% value T2B – data collected: 18-19 March 2020).
75% 82%
3° week 4° week
Source: YouGov – “COVID-19 Global Tracker” (1.000 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.). SUMMARY T2B.
MEASURES THE ITALIAN GOVERNMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE TO
CONTAIN THE CORONAVIRUS
3° week 4° week
TOP 2
81% ∆%
Cancel sport events, concerts or other events
week 4 vs week 3
84%
Put in Quarantine anyone in contact with contaminated 80%
83%
patients
79%
Temporarily close schools
81%
+9pp
75%
Encourage companies to smart-working
77% Provide masks for
free to everyone in
Put in Quarantine everyone who comes from locations 68% Italy
75%
where the emergency started (Lombardy)
Source: YouGov – “COVID-19 Global Tracker” (1.000 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.).
12
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE BIG FEAR: THE ECONOMY, THE
JOB AND GETTING POORER
COVID-19 IS A THREAT FOR THE ECONOMY
98% 98% 98% 98%
90% 93% 79% 86% Serious Threat
3° week 4° week 3° week 4° week
Source: YouGov – “COVID-19 Global Tracker” (1.000 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.). SUMMARY T2B.
THE FEAR OF LOSING JOB IS INCREASING
How likely you (or one of your family) are to lose the job due to the crisis (1 not at all – 10 a lot) - % 22 March 2020
50% 31%
LIKELY TO VERY LIKELY TO
HAPPEN (6-10) HAPPEN (8-10)
Source: SWG, CAWI (400 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.).
THE FEAR OF GETTING POORER IS QUITE REALISTIC
In the next month how likely you think to happen (1 not at all – 10 a lot) - % 22 March 2020
Likely (6-10) Very likely (8-10)
60
IN THE NEXT MONTH
39
34
21 25
13
I am forced to affect the family I won't be able to pay taxes, I am forced to ask for a loan
assets mortgage, rentals and other fixed
costs
Source: SWG, CAWI (400 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.).
13
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedCONTRASTING FEELINGS HOVER IN
OUR MINDS
THE EMOTIONAL TEMPERATURE OF THE ITALIANS
Which of the following emotions are you feeling more often in this period? % at least 3 answers – 22 March 2020
Joy 1
Gratitude 8
Boredom 10
Resignation 13
Faith 13
Anger 20
Anguish 30
Vulnerability 32
Sorrow 32
Fear 33
Hope 37
Instability 46
Source: SWG, CAWI (400 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.).
ITALY AFTER THE LOKDOWN: WEAKER, BUT STRONGER
In your opinion, how do you think Italy will emerge once the risk of spreading Coronavirus is no longer a threat?
Weaker
economically but
52%
stronger socially
Stronger
Weaker,
economically but
economically
Stronger,
weaker socially
29% and socially
economically
9% 4% 6% I don’t know
and socially
Source: YouGov – “COVID-19 Global Tracker” (1.000 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.).
14
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedCONSUMER REACTIONS
REDUCE UNNECESSARY COSTS & TRY TO
FIND A NEW BALANCE
THE NECESSITY OF DOING HOME SAVINGS
In the last week, you and your family have ... (% values - data collected: 22 March 2020)
Spent more than usual
Spent as we spent before
Eliminated all
64 unnecessary shopping
28
57%
Spent less than usual, but
only because we have fewer
shopping opportunities 33
29 Reduced unnecessary
shopping
Source: SWG, CAWI (400 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.).
THE NEED TO FIND A NEW BALANCE
On a 1 to 10 scale, where 1 means “totally disagree” and 10 means “totally agree”, what is your agreement level with the following statement? (% agree – sum:
8-10 - data collected: 22 March 2020)
I ABSOLUTELY NEED I START TO KNOW
I CAN’T STAY AT
TO RESTART WITH MY MYSELF BETTER &
HOME ANYMORE
HABITS PEOPLE AROUND ME
22% 33% 26%
I AGREE WITH THE THE RELATIONSHIPS IT’S A USEFUL PERIOD
LIMITATIONS WITH PEOPLE I LIVE, FOR EXPERIMENTING
IMPOSED ARE GETTING WORSE WITH NEW THINGS
72% 7% 29%
Source: SWG, CAWI (400 interviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.).
15
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedCONSUMER REACTIONS
THE NEW NORMAL IS LIVING WITH DIGITAL
• The digital pattern of the Italians’ behaviors is confirmed around the 3 macro areas identified.
• Emerging online interests show how people try to survive during the quarantine: mixing
everyday tasks with playful aspects (i.e. Food, Cooking, Celebs’ Home & Style), feeding their
hobby and passions (i.e. Photography, Dance, Digital Arts), taking the opportunity to improve
themselves professionally and personally (i.e. Apprenticeship, Internet for beginners), cultivating
new relationships (i.e. Dating).
• Interesting to notice: Poetry (the 21st March has been the World Poetry Day) and Birthday
(people organize party using app like Houseparty).
Values: var% W5 (16-22 Mar 2020) vs W1 (17-22 Feb 2020, before patient 1)
Var% W5 (16-22 Mar 2020) vs W4 (9-15 Mar 2020, after DPCM)
New segments
21mio
cookies
17mio
cookies
13mio
cookies
Source: [m]Core - GroupM Proprietary DMP, 5 weeks tracked data on online Italian population.
16
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedAGENDA
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
DAILY LIFE AND PURCHASING
PATTERNS
o SHOPPING & E-COMMERCE
o MEDIA COSUMPTION
o ITALIAN PERSONAS EMERGING
THE EFFECT OF THE LOCKDOWN
o THE IMPACT ON THE SPORT INDUSTRY
o THE NEW ADV BONUS
CONCLUSIONS: MANAGING UNCERTAINTY
WITH CONFIDENCE
17
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE NEW SHOPPING: ONLINE VS.
OFFLINE
ONLINE SALES KEEP ON INCREASING
Consumer goods sales increase
17 Feb - 15 Mar. 2020
%var vs same weeks 2019
Offline Online
+12,0% +79,8%
Source: Nielsen Tracking (Like4Like and Online Total Score)
RETAIL SALES (HYPER, SUPER-, FREE SERVICES, DISCOUNT)
Week
2
1 9 - 15 Mar. 2020
Tot. Italy +16,4%
%value sales var. vs.
Area 1 +10,1%
previous year
3 Area 2 +18,6%
Area 3 +16,8%
4
Area 4 +28,4%
Source: Nielsen Survey «Impact of COVID-19 on Italians»
18
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE QUARANTINE EFFECT ON THE
SHOPPING CART
Gloves
+362,5%
300%
250%
200%
%var vs same week in 2019
Wet wipes
Flour +196,0%
+185,3%
150%
Soaps Thermometer
100%
+100,3% +115,9%
Tomato sauce
+82,2%
Pasta
+65,3%
UHT milk
50%
+62,2%
Toilet paper
Beer +43,3% Bottled water
+13,8% +20,1%
0%
Shaving
-6,7%
-50%
Cosmetics Perfumes
-100% -60,0% -61,9%
Source: Nielsen Survey «Impact of COVID-19 on Italians»
19
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE EXPLOSION OF THE
E-COMMERCE IS DRIVEN BY THE
EGROCERY (5% OF THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF E-COMMERCE)
eGrocery %var. vs same week in 2019
+56,8% +81,0% +82,3% +97,2%
week week week week
17-23 Feb 24 Feb-1Mar 2-8Mar 9-15Mar
Source: Nielsen Survey «Impact of COVID-19 on Italians»
NEW CATEGORIES ARE EMERGING IN ONLINE SEARCHES ON AMAZON
Source: Amazon top 200 keyword search (15-21 Mar 2020) – percentage points variation vs previous week
SUPERMARKET APPs MOSTLY USED
ACTIVE USERS GROWTH % POSSESSION GROWTH% +21,2%
103,4% Esselunga +34,5%
54,4% Conad +28,4%
15,2%
COOP +23,5%
+20,8%
Daily Weekly Monthly
Supermercato24
Source: Ogury - % var Gen vs Feb 2020
20
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedECOMMERCE: HOW LONG WILL IT BE
SUSTAINABLE?
NEW INITIATIVES ARE EMERGING TO MANAGE THE DIFFICULTIES WITH
E-COMMERCE PLATFORMS
• Amazon has decided
to sell only basic • APP for queue
necessities monitoring (filaindiana.it
and Google Maps)
• Carrefour has limited
the access to its • Small shop delivery
website with a waiting is growing
queue (iorestoacasa.delivery)
• No delivery slots • Not only food:
available on pharma and
esselunga.it toiletries delivered at
home
E-COMMERCE EVOLUTION - 2020 PROJECTIONS
eCommerce value Food&Beverage 5% of mkt
2019 32bn +40% VS. 2018
+18% VS. 2018
eCommerce value forecasts
2020f 37bn
Before COVID-19
+16% VS 2019
THE MOST AFFECTED CATEGORIES
BEST SCENARIO
-5% VS 2019
2020f Consumer Electronics
After COVID-19 Travel
WORST SCENARIO
-20% VS 2019 Fashion
Source: Osservatorio B2c Politecnico di Milano and GroupM forecasts
21
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE QUARANTINE EFFECT ON
THE MEDIA DIET
INCREASING USAGE OF SCREEN MEDIA
More Often Less Often As Usual Don't answer
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
ONLINE 3° week 68 3 26 3
NEWS 4° week 72 3 22 3
WATCH FILM 3° week 51 3 44 2
ON TV 4° week 67 3 28 2
3° week 38 4 46 12
FACEBOOK
4° week 53 4 31 13
3° week 25 6 42 28
INSTAGRAM
4° week 33 5 33 30
3° week 27 6 58 9
YOUTUBE
4° week 44 4 43 9
3° week 53 3 39 5
WATCH TV
4° week 66 4 27 3
WATCH ON 3° week 35 4 38 23
DEMAND
PLATFORM* 4° week 47 3 25 24
*Netflix, Amazon Prime, NowTV etc.
Source: YouGov – “COVID-19 Global Tracker”, (1.000 inteviews, nat. rep. 18+ y.o.)
22
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE EXPLOSION OF TV
AUDIENCES IMPACT ON REACH,
TIME SPENT AND ADV GRPS
Daily average reach Time spent by population
Since the beginning of the Emergency (21.02-23.03)
+4,9%
+60min
2019 2020
ATV (Time spent by population)
Source: Auditel - Δ% 21/02-23/03 vs homologous 2019
GRPs GROW ON GENERALIST NETWORKS
• During the first three weeks of health emergency, the average GRP grows on generalist
networks, both on Individual and the main planning targets.
• To highlights the growth on 18-35 and 25-34 targets.
Advertising GRP
Δ% 23/02-22/03 vs 2019
+
Tot. Individuals 18-35 25-34
With guests
Day Time +20,0% +30,2% +30,3%
Prime Time +19,7% +37,7% +35,8%
Source: Auditel - Δ% 23/02-22/03 vs homologous 2019
23
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTV BOOMING: THE EFFECT ON
REGIONS & TARGET
Tot. TV Audience (.000)
+ 24,1% since the beginning of the crisis
2019 2020 Full Lockdown New Restrictive
21.000
Partial Lockdown
(Lombardy - Veneto)
+39% Measures
#CuraItalia
+12%
19.500
18.000
16.500
15.000
13.500
12.000
10.500
9.000
Source: Auditel - Δ% 21/02-23/03 vs homologous 2019
Tot. TV Audience since the beginning of the Emergency (21.02-17.03)
Day Time +26,3% Prime Time +14,0%
Source: Auditel - Δ% 21/02-23/03 vs homologous 2019
Source: Auditel - Δ% 21/02-23/03 vs homologous 2019
24
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTV BOOMING: THE EFFECT
ON NEWS & PROGRAMMING
NEWS AND ENTERTAINMENT THE MAIN CONTENT
• Tv viewers are more interested into news due to the emergency.
• Generalist TV reshapes TV Schedule: Shows and Sport blocked to avoid people assembly.
From this restriction News, Film & TV Series and Entertainment audiences benefit
National TV News Regional TV news
+38% +54%
Source: Auditel - Δ% 21/02-23/03 vs homologous 2019
2019 2020
+12%
-34%
+6% +36% +29% -24%
Documentary Film & Tv Serires News Entertainment Show Sport
Source: Auditel – Δ AMR% 21/02-22/03 vs homologous 2019
25
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTV PRIME TIME PROGRAMS
FOLLOW THE UPWARD TREND
• Audience of main TV programs increased due to total lockdown of the country
• Movies and TV series are more appealing. It is also noteworthy that Harry Potter movies had an
average audience of 4.1million listeners and the last two episodes won the prime time podium
+13%
AMR vs pre-lockdown
8.000.000
7.500.000
7.000.000
6.500.000
6.000.000
5.500.000
5.000.000
4.500.000
4.000.000
9-gen 16-gen 23-gen 30-gen 20-feb 27-feb 3-mar 5-mar 12-mar 19-mar
+20%
vs pre-lockdown
AMR
4.000.000
3.800.000
3.600.000
3.400.000
3.200.000
3.000.000
2.800.000
2.600.000
2.400.000
2.200.000
2.000.000
8-gen 10-gen 15-gen 17-gen 20-gen 24-gen 27-gen 31-gen 3-feb 10-feb 14-feb 17-feb 21-feb 24-feb 2-mar 11-mar 18-mar
+14%
AMR vs pre-lockdown
4.400.000
4.200.000
4.000.000
3.800.000
3.600.000
3.400.000
3.200.000
28-feb 6-mar 13-mar 20-mar
2019 2020
4,4 mio
+36%
4,2 mio
3,7 mio
Film&TV Series
16-mar 17-mar 23-mar
26 Source: Auditel – Δ AMR% 21/02-22/03 vs homologous 2019
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTV LAST WEEK PERFORMANCES:
BETWEEN SACRED & PROFANE
TIME SPENT & AUDIENCE BOOMING BETWEEN SATURADY & SUNDAY 21-22.03
DURING THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF NEW RESTRICTIVE REGULATIONS
2019 +132
2020 min
Prime Minister Speech
4.5 mio
H23:30
TIME SPENT (per person)
H: 21:00 H: 24:00
Sunday – 22.03
Source: Auditel
TV2000 AND PORNHUB BRING TO THE ATTENTION OF ALL MEDIA
«Il Santo Rosario»
A special moment of prayer during COVID-19 emergency 11.03 March
#1 Italy
Thursday 19.3 H 21.10-21.50
4.2mio audience Soon after the
13.2% share
announcement of a
free Premium Month
3° program in PT
Source: Auditel - PornHub
27
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedON DEMAND AUDIENCES INCREASE
AMONG ALL PLATFORMS
BROADCASTERS’ & PUBLISHERS’ PLAYERS BENEFIT FROM THE QUARANTINE
Mediaset Play RaiPlay Corriere TV La Repubblica TV
Unique
Audience Var% pre-post
COVID-19
7.000.000
+34%
6.000.000
+74%
5.000.000
+10%
4.000.000
+77%
No Sanremo
3.000.000
2.000.000
+102%
1.000.000
-
Week1 Week2 Week3 Week4 Week5 Week6 Week7 Week8 Week9 Week10
6/1 – 21/1 13/1 – 19/1 20/1 – 26/1 27/1 – 2/2 3/2 – 9/2 10/2 – 16/2 17/2 – 23/2 24/2 – 1/3 2/3 – 8/3 9/3 – 15/3
PRE COVID-19 POST COVID-19
Source: Audiweb (%var vs week 1-7 PRE COVID-19)
SKY ON DEMAND: INCREASING DOWNLOAD TREND THANKS TO
#IORESTOACASA OFFER
• It opens its programming to all subscribers until 3 April
• Sky has also launched a fundraising campaign #IORESTOACASA in support of the Civil
Protection with some of the most famous people of Sky Sport, the protagonists of the most
loved entertainment programs and the most successful TV series and journalists of Sky TG24
Source: Sky Media data – download per week; trend and var% yoy weeks 1-11 2020 VS. 2019
28
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedON DEMAND OFFER WIDENS TO
SATISFY A HIGHER IN-HOME
CONSUMPTION
DISNEY + NOW AVAILABLE IN ITALY
Potential Audiences
PAY Model 38,7%
6,99€/mese 3.2 mio
23,6%
X NO ADV Model
12.4 mio
Couples with
Source: GroupM Live Panel Video Audience Pop. 15+
children
CO-VIEWING OFFERS FROM NETFLIX & MYMOVIES
• NETFLIX PARTY is a free Chrome • MY MOVIES ANYWHERE digital hub that
extension that allows people to watch allows users to access the library of movies
any Netflix content with friends and purchased on different platforms (iTunes,
comment on it together in the chat Vudu, Prime Video,YouTube) and to share
side them with friends through a text message
NETFLIX: THE TOP 5 TV SERIES AND MOVIES
Source: Netflix – ranking day: 23/3/2020
29
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedALSO AUDIO CONSUMPTION IS
ADAPTING TO THE NEW ROUTINE
AUDIO LISTENING HAS BECOME AN IN-HOME ACTIVITY
• Due to the mobility restrictions, radio, music and audio listening now take place mainly at home
smartphone PC TV console speakers
• Smartphone remains the main device for listening to audio content, also used as a remote
control to mange the listening on other devices (TV, speakers, console)
THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO FAMILY AND DOMESTIC ACTIVITIES
• The Top Playlists are adapting to the new daily activities
cooking cleaning children party music group working
with music with music music celebrations with music
TIME SPENT INDOORS IS USED TO REFLECT, LEARN AND HAVE FUN
• Podcast genres which increased in consumption during this period
Self-improvement Entertainment
o Well-being o Sport
o Meditation o Comedy
o Educational o Narrative
Source: GroupM elaborations on Spotify information
30
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedINFORMATION AND GAMING
CONTINUE TO PUSH WEB AUDIENCES
AUDIENCES ON NEWS WEBSITES: TOP 5 BY UNIQUE USERS
UU weekly
1 25,8 mio +174%
2. 22,5 mio +126%
Week 3
9 - 15 mar 2020
3. 16,9 mio +99%
4. 15,0 mio +90%
5. 15,0 mio +73%
Source: Audiweb – top 5 News&Information websites (%var vs homologous week 2019)
PAGE VIEWS ON NEWS WEBSITES
200 +156% +180%
vs homologous 2019
180 vs homologous 2019
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
19-feb
01-mar
02-mar
03-mar
04-mar
05-mar
06-mar
07-mar
08-mar
09-mar
10-mar
11-mar
12-mar
13-mar
14-mar
15-mar
16-mar
17-mar
18-mar
19-mar
20-mar
21-mar
15-feb
16-feb
17-feb
18-feb
20-feb
21-feb
22-feb
23-feb
24-feb
25-feb
26-feb
27-feb
28-feb
29-feb
Source: Audiweb - trend Page Views (mio)
THE GAMING APP USAGE
Italy
+19,3% +21,3% +22.8% +24,6%
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
Source: Network AdColony - %var vs week 0 (before the emergency)
31
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedSOCIAL CONVERSATIONS
DURING QUARANTINE
TREND OF VISITS ON SOCIAL MEDIA SITES & APPS
Index trend (100 = 5th January 2020)
CRISIS EFFECT Var%
17/2 – 15/3
+14%
+11%
+30%
+55%
+18%
Source: ComScore MMX – week ending: 5 Jan.
FOOD AND ONLINE ENTERTAINEMNT AMONG THE HOT TOPICS
ONLINE
FOOD ENTERTAINMENT
5,2K #food 5,1K #foodporn
«lievito» Instagram LIVE
«yeast»
for music concerts in streaming
12k mentions
+106% vs.prev.days
97% on
Source: Blogmeter – 12-15 March data
32
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedAGENDA
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
DAILY LIFE AND PURCHASING
PATTERNS
o SHOPPING & E-COMMERCE
o MEDIA COSUMPTION
o ITALIAN PERSONAS EMERGING
THE EFFECT OF THE LOCKDOWN
o THE IMPACT ON THE SPORT INDUSTRY
o THE NEW ADV BONUS
CONCLUSIONS: MANAGING UNCERTAINTY
WITH CONFIDENCE
33
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE EMERGING OF NEW ITALIAN
PERSONAS
34
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE COMMUNITARIAN
WE ALL SAVE
OURSELVES, TOGETHER
• They offer their time and care to others to manage the daily life
• They distribute essential goods and emergency supplies (i.e. masks
personally-purchased)
• They participate or organize flash mobs
• They share positive news on the level of pollution falls or on the
presence of dolphins in the Italian harbors
• They take part to mediation sessions on Zoom or collective prayers
• They promote motivational or gratitude chains for doctors and nurses
35
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE DEFENDER
THE CONTAGION COMES
FROM ABROAD
WE CAN SAVE OURSELVES,
DEFENDING OURSELVES
IF NECESSARY, WITH
DRASTIC SOLUTIONS
• They spend hours watching talk show and commenting on socials
• They are queuing at the supermarket from dawn
• They have stocks of food and essential goods
• They shout against runners from the balconies to report them to the
authorities or on Facebook
36
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE INDIFFERENT
WHY CARE IF THERE’S A
SOLUTION?
WHY BOTHER IF THERE’S
NOT A SOLUTION?
• They try to keep going on as usual, as much as possible. Waiting for
everything to pass
• They consider themselves immune from this situation both from a
psychological and physical point of view
• They have changed their lives as little as possible
37
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE COMMITTED
THERE AREN’T GOOD
REASONS TO STOP
EVERYTHING
INSTEAD THERE ARE IDEAL
REASONS TO THINK ABOUT
THE FUTURE
• They offer their skills and expertise. At the same time, they improve their
competences
• They do smart working even more than before (including the commuting
time) & empower their multitasking capabilities
• They follow professional training courses or they build business
networking as soon as they finish their daily routine
• They stay informed from international sources or friends or colleagues
from abroad
• They constantly monitor the stock exchange
38
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE COMPULSIVE
THE ENEMY IS INVISIBLE
I MUST SEEK FOR THE
IMMUNITY
• They are obsessed by cleaning their houses (more times a day)
• They bought stocks of disinfecting napkins before buying food
• When they’re queuing at the supermarket, they keep twice the
prescribed safety distance
• They reorganized everything: the storage, bookcase, bills, albums etc.
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE ESCAPIST
THE QUARANTINE IS A GOOD
OCCASION TO DEDICATE
TIME TO MY PASSIONS
AND TO TRY TO OVERCOME
THE SHOCK
• They subscribed the last streaming platforms (video, gaming, music)
they still missed
• They transformed one of their room in their home fitness room
• They do binge watching
• They try new recipes
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE SURRENDER
THE CRISIS TOOK AWAY MY
POOR ENERGIES I HAD
BEFORE THE OUTBREAK
• They are mainly seniors and lonely people
• They have to manage their health problems
• They have to manage their economic and social problems
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE MAPPING OF THE NEW ITALIAN
PERSONAS
TOGETHER
FEAR HOPE
ALONE
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedAGENDA
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
DAILY LIFE AND PURCHASING
PATTERNS
o SHOPPING & E-COMMERCE
o MEDIA COSUMPTION
o ITALIAN PERSONAS EMERGING
THE EFFECT OF THE LOCKDOWN
o THE IMPACT ON THE SPORT INDUSTRY
o THE NEW ADV BONUS
CONCLUSIONS: MANAGING UNCERTAINTY
WITH CONFIDENCE
43
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedEVENTS AND LIVE COMMUNICATION
THE MOST AFFECTED SECTOR
• All Events have been postponed or cancelled due to the emergency
• Here below, we’ve highlighted the most significant ones
POSTPONED
? UNDER
EVALUATION ?
Art Week Milano Tour de France Tomorrowland
Winter2020
Salone del Mobile
Wimbledon Eurovision Song
Contest
Vinitaly
2020 Electronic
Biennale di Venezia Entertainment
Expo - LA
Ultra Music
Festival
Giro d’Italia
Cannes Festival
Cannes Lion
?October?
UEFA European
Championship
!2021!
Tokio Olympics
2020
!2021!
44
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedSPORT EVENTS: A LONG PHASE OF
INSTABILITY
• We expect to live hard and unstable times for Sport at least by September.
• Probably it will be necessary a strong action from Government to sustain the
sector. Many clubs (football, basket, volleyball etc.) could enter into serious
economic difficulties or could not sustain the crisis
THE IMPACT ON FOOTBALL
• Officially postponed to June 2021
• The economic damage cannot be measured, but it’s relatively bad
as the event has been postponed and not cancelled
• National Championships (Serie A, Bundesliga, LaLiga, etc.) –
Everything will be done to finish them, hopefully until the mid of
July (15.07.20 the official date by now)
• Probably there will be used alternative and shorter solutions:
under analysis playoff for some Championships or calendar
shifting for others
• The big issue is related to the economic impact on TV rights and
the value of soccer players
• From Sept ‘20 all the National Championship should restart
• The Big issue: participation at live events. The risk is low
admittances for at least the next 12/18 months
• Soccer Players’ Salary
• It’s under analysis the possibility of a salary reduction or salary’s
tax exemption that could help the Clubs. Similar adoptions
probably also in Spain, while in other countries (i.e. UK) no
activities has been decided yet
• This is a hot topic that could change the football player’s
willingness to take into consideration to go to play in a
Championship vs. another - To be monitored
45
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedSPORT EVENTS: A LONG PHASE OF
INSTABILITY
THE IMPACT ON OTHER SPORTS
BASKETBALL - VOLLEYBALL
• A great debate on the future of the season (if and when restart)
among Clubs, Leghe and Federations
• We think that seasons could end with alternative and shorter
solutions
CYCLING
• All the big events have been postponed so far
• The most important events should be re-scheduled along 2020
(Giro d’Italia – Tour de France), while it’s quite probable the minor
events could be cancelled
TENNIS
• All competitions are stopped until the mid of June
• As for Cycling, the big events could be re-scheduled along the
year
• Strong impact on young talents: without competing, they cannot
try to go up in the ATP/WTA ranking
RUNNING – SWIMMING - GOLF
• All the main events have been postponed to Mid Sept/October
• As for the other sports, the big events could be re-scheduled
along the year, while the minors cancelled
FORMULA 1 – MOTO GP
• Everything postponed to the end of June
• As for the other sports, the big events could be re-scheduled
along the year, while the minors cancelled
SKIING
• The less affected sport due to the season closing – apart from the
World Ski Championship
46
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE TOKYO OLYMPICS: DELAY FOR A
YEAR - SUMMER 2021
• A great debate finished with the announcement made
by the Japanese Prime Minister on 24th March to delay
the Olympics for a year
• The decision comes after months of internal discussion
and mounting pressures from nations and athletes
across the world who had urged that the Games be
postponed
N° OF PEOPLE INVOLVED IN THE OLYMPICS
80.000
11.000
4.400
Olympic athletes Paralympic athletes Unpaid volunteers
US MARKET RESEARCH - ESTIMATED POTENTIAL LOSS OF ADVERTISING &
SPONSORSHIP FOR THIS YEAR IN THE DOMESTIC MARKET - million $
1.250
900
Local sponsorship partners NBC advertising
US MARKET RESEARCH - INSURED COST OF THE OLYMPICS 2020 - million $
2.000
600
Total cost including TV rights and Hospitality
sponsorship
Source: STATISTA - Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the sports industry
47
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedPOTENTIAL GROWTH IN INTEREST
IN E-SPORTS
• e-Sports an evolving sector in Italy - A multiplayer videogame played competitively by
professional gamers
1.2mio
e-Sports fanbase
Adults 16-40 who follow e-sports
events several times a week
+20% vs 2018 Italy Germany France US UK
• In Italy the percentage of Passionate Fans is slightly lower than other countries, but the
percentage of Average Fans is the highest
o This indicates that Italy is currently a market undergoing transformations and this period
could be crutial: many fans are very likely to "decide" to become stronger fans
SOURCE: “Rapporto sugli e-Sports in Italia 2019” – Nielsen Aesvi
THE INTEREST TOWARD GAMING AND ONLINE COMPETITION INCREASES
DURING COVID-19 CRISIS
• WE RACE ON: the 22nd March 2020 the first
ever Formula1 Esports Virtual Grand Prix took
place
• In the next weeks, the virtual races are going
to run in place of every postponed Grand Prix
•
30mio
The latest free version of Call Of Duty has
reached a great success during these days of
crisis downloads in 10 days
SOURCE: GroupM ESP Italy
BUT e-SPORTS MARKET COULD SUFFER OF THIS PERIOD LIMITATIONS
o NO physical event that characterizes the final stages of the competition
o NO thematic exhibitions and fairs, which unfortunately represent large sources of revenues
48
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedAGENDA
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
DAILY LIFE AND PURCHASING
PATTERNS
o SHOPPING & E-COMMERCE
o MEDIA COSUMPTION
o ITALIAN PERSONAS EMERGING
THE EFFECT OF THE LOCKDOWN
o THE IMPACT ON THE SPORT INDUSTRY
o THE NEW ADV BONUS
CONCLUSIONS: MANAGING UNCERTAINTY
WITH CONFIDENCE
49
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedTHE ADV BONUS CHANGES
TO SUPPORT PUBLISHERS
THE REGULATIONS BEFORE COVID-19
• The Legislative Decree n.50/2017 establishes a contribution, as a tax credit, for incremental adv
spending made by Companies, Start-up and Self-employed workers
• ELEGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS
Incremental spending, al least >1% of the spending made on the same media
in the previous year
• WHERE
Only Tv and Radio local broadcasters, analog or digital
Newspapers and Magazine, paper and digital
• WHAT
Tax credit is equal to 75% of the incremental value of adv spending
THE REGULATIONS AFTER COVID-19
• The new Decree “Cura Italia”, just issued by the Government following the Covid-19
emergency, establishes:.
• NEW ELEGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS
Tax credit will be applied to the total adv spending and for the whole spending
2020, not only on the incremental one.
• WHERE
Same media
•WHAT
The tax credit is equal to 30% of the total spending
This new regulation concerns only 2020 and requests for approval, must be
applied between 1st and 30th September 2020
50
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedAGENDA
CONSUMER SENTIMENT
DAILY LIFE AND PURCHASING
PATTERNS
o SHOPPING & E-COMMERCE
o MEDIA COSUMPTION
o ITALIAN PERSONAS EMERGING
THE EFFECT OF THE LOCKDOWN
o THE IMPACT ON THE SPORT INDUSTRY
o THE NEW ADV BONUS
CONCLUSIONS: MANAGING
UNCERTAINTY WITH CONFIDENCE
51
Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reservedMANAGING UNCERTAINTY WITH CONFIDENCE We have now entered the 3° week of lockdown and from last Sunday the new Government measures have further increased. So it is hardly surprising that Italians’ fear is higher than the previous weeks. People are really worried about the impact the crisis will have on their status quo, jobs and on the domestic economy. Besides these data, we are also measuring unexpected results in consumer sentiment, especially towards the National Health Service. As a matter of facts, 80% of the population considers our National Health Service to be coping with the difficult situation. The confidence for the Government grows as well and Italians are showing themselves cohesive around the institutions. Fortunately, the trust doesn’t seem to decrease. Needless to say, that the approaches to the crisis are different according to the personal attitudes as well as the financial, economic and logistic condition of each of us. That’s why we have outlined a picture of new emerging Italian Personas in this acute phase. It is a qualitative audience segmentation according to the way of living and coping with the emergency. Sometimes it is useful to leave statistics and researches to try to think out of the box and focus on more specific, adaptive and customized communications designed around the different Personas. Our commitment is to continue to keep you updated with analysis and insights on the impact and consequences of these difficult days. Stay tuned! Confidential and proprietary information of GroupM. Any unauthorized reproduction prohibited. All rights reserved
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