LOCKDOWN WEEK 3 SOUTH AFRICA - COVID-19 Impact April 17th, 2020 - Trade Intelligence
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COVID-19 Impact LOCKDOWN WEEK 3 SOUTH AFRICA April 17th, 2020
Update SUmmary
Lockdown Life Extended
• As we settle into Lockdown life maintenance and stabilization
of Grocery buying has ‘normalized’ to some extent.
Consumers increased spending during Easter but as
predicted, the Easter 2020 performance was muted vs a year
ago
• South Africans feel a strong sense of community but also
anxiety around the pandemic (health), recession concerns
(economy) and lockdown enforcement (police forces)
• Existing trends continue
– ‘Make-it-yourself’ cooking and baking
– Adjusting to restrictions and living without
• Increased searches on Google about alcohol and tobacco
restrictions indicates increased anxiety
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2
Coronavirus cases cross the 2.1mill mark globally, the SA lockdown has been extended by an
additional two weeks and the Reserve Bank cut the interest rate to a record low in the last decade
Image via Adobe Stock
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Last updated: April 17, 2020, 07:16 GMT
Sources: https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-04-09-sa-lockdown-extended-by-two-more-
weeks/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/south-africa-cuts-benchmark-rate-to-4-25-from-5-25
https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/western-cape/mkhize-recommends-the-widespread-use-of-cloth-
masks-during-covid-19-outbreak-46547401
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 3
South African deaths have nearly tripled from 18 to 48
Worldwide cases are up 43% and Trump halts WHO funding
Days since first reported case
42 107 78 75 75
Cases 2,192,469 globally Deaths 147,360 globally
+43% vs. Previous update +65% vs. previous update
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 4
South Africa is on Day 22 of lockdown (17 April 2020) and we’ve managed to flatten to the curve
Apr 2
Jan 20/21 Mar 23 Global
Confirmed cases outside 21-day lockdown cases:
mainland China in Japan, Feb 21/23 announced to 1m Apr 14
Jan 7 South Korea, Thailand & US Virus surges in Mar 11 begin on Thursday Trump halts
Confirmation Italy as officials WHO declares at midnight WHO
that officials lockdown towns Corona Virus Apr 10 funding
Mar 27
have identified outbreak a First death in Lockdown
a new virus Pandemic South Africa extended
Jan Feb Mar Apr
2020 2020 2020 2020
Lockdown
Jan 11 Jan 30 Mar 26
China reports WHO declares Start of SA
global health Mar 5 lockdown Apr 7
first death
emergency First South African Boris Johnson
tests positive for admitted to
Corona Virus hospital Apr 15
Dec 31 Global
China alerts Mar 15 cases:
WHO to many Ramaphosa Mar 26 2m
unusual declares a Global
National State cases:
pneumonia
of Disaster 500k Current Data
cases in Wuhan
Week
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 5
Stricter lifestyle restrictions have driven slower lockdown growth in SA versus other countries. In the
latest week, the government has added baby essentials and goods to the list
South Africa Italy UK USA Australia
Alcohol sales allowed
during lockdown
Cigarette sales allowed
during lockdown
Initially
Restaurants takeaways & were
food delivery allowed open
Category restrictions in
store
Item limits per product
Limited number of people
per store
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 6
Consumers have returned to shopping for the Easter weekend celebrations, although growth is
muted and down 12% vs. Easter week a year ago (Easter was a week later in 2019)
Total Edible & Non-Edible Grocery Essentials (excl. Liquor & Tobacco)
% Change in Value sales vs. Year Ago
50
Panic Buying
40
Easter fell on April 21st in 2019
(so one week later than in 2020)
30 Value Sales 2020
Easter week vs 2019
20 Easter week:
-12%
10
Sunday Wk
ending date
0
08/03/2020 15/03/2020 22/03/2020 29/03/2020 05/04/2020 12/04/2020
Mar 5 Mar 15 Apr 12
Mar 23
First South African Ramaphosa Easter
21-day lockdown
tests positive for declares a National announced starting
Corona Virus State of Disaster Thursday midnight
Sample of formal retail © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 7
Growth for both LSM groups driven by Easter long weekend, however, when comparing to Easter week in 2019 both
groups are declining having purchased less confectionery and beverages
Total Essentials How did Easter week Compare to 2019?
% Value Growth vs. YA WE 12/04/2020 vs. WE 21/04/2019
LSM 1-6 LSM 7-10 LSM 1 to 6: -8% LSM 7 to 10: -13%
Categories Declining vs. Easter 2019
• Frozen Poultry • Confectionery
• CSDs & Juice • Frozen Poultry
• Snacks • CSDs & Juice
• Confectionery • Maize & Rice
• Maize & Rice • Canned Fish
WE 15/03/2020 WE 22/03/2020 WE 29/03/2020 WE 05/04/2020 WE 12/04/2020
Categories Growing vs. Easter 2019
Mar 15 Mar 23 First full Apr 12
National State 21-day week on Easter • Cereals • Baking Ingredients
of Disaster lockdown Lockdown
declared announced • UHT Milk • Cheese
Mar 30 • Sugar • UHT Milk
Mar 25 Sassa • Yoghurt • Biscuits
Pay-day Grant
payments • Biscuits • Yoghurt
WE = Week Ending © 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 8
Easter 2020 (COVID-19) vs. Easter 2019
Baking, Ice Cream and Spreads are the winners as consumers continue to bake at home
Winners Losers
Growth vs. YA Growth vs. YA
Baking Ingredients >20% Rice 10% 4%
During lockdown growth continues to slow across Personal Care, but consumers are still looking for
preventative products during the crisis
Wipes, Hand Soap & Sanitizer and Vitamins continue to be in high demand
% Value Growth vs. Year Ago
National State Lockdown Easter
of Disaster announced
& pay day Full Lockdown
announced
Mar 15th Mar 22nd Mar 29th Apr 5th Apr 12th
Hand Soaps & Sanitiser
Vitamins Value Growth Scale:
Medicinal
11 to -11 to -31 to
Wipes >100 71-100 51-70 31-50 0 - 10 -10 to 0 < -50
30 -30 -50
Pet
Oral Care
Household Cleaning
Personal Care
Toilet Paper
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 10An up-tick in grocery essentials as consumers are used to lockdown shopping and have stocked up
for meal maintenance and Easter
Pantry essentials for ‘make-it-yourself’ cooking remains important to consumers
% Value Growth vs. Year Ago Mar 15th Mar 22nd Mar 29th Apr 5th Apr 12th
Snacks
Cheese
National State Lockdown Easter Frozen Meats
of Disaster announced
Full Lockdown Fresh Meat
announced & pay day
Canned Food
Mar 15th Mar 22nd Mar 29th Apr 5th Apr 12th
Dry pasta
Baking Ingredients
Bread
Spices & Seasoning Maize
Spreads Rice
Yoghurt
Wheat Flour Milk
Sugars & Sweetners Coffee & Tea
Cereals Juice
Condiments & Sauces CSDs & Water
Oil
Frozen Veg/Potato
Value Growth Scale:
Soup & Stock
Biscuits
Confectionery 11 to -11 to -31 to
>100 71-100 51-70 31-50 0 - 10 -10 to 0 < -50
30 -30 -50
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 11The number of stock outs are declining
Count of Out of Stock Instances* Apr 14th vs. Apr 7th: Frozen Veg, Canned,
Maize, Pasta & Medicinal have all seen a
decline in out of stocks, while Wheat &
Peak at start of Convenience Soup have seen an increase
lockdown
21 Mar 2020
18 Mar 2020
19 Mar 2020
20 Mar 2020
22 Mar 2020
23 Mar 2020
24 Mar 2020
25 Mar 2020
26 Mar 2020
27 Mar 2020
28 Mar 2020
29 Mar 2020
30 Mar 2020
31 Mar 2020
11 Apr 2020
13 Apr 2020
01 Apr 2020
02 Apr 2020
03 Apr 2020
04 Apr 2020
05 Apr 2020
06 Apr 2020
07 Apr 2020
08 Apr 2020
09 Apr 2020
10 Apr 2020
12 Apr 2020
14 Apr 2020
*Out of Stock Instance = When a product has 0
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 12
stock quantity in a store in which it is rangedThe world of Retail is already changing with contactless shopping experiences
The first retailer to offer contactless Pick ‘n Pay launched ‘Scan & Pay’
QR payments at all tills in all technology at all till points, after
Shoprite, Usave, Checkers and Checkers being the first retailer to introduce ‘Tap &
Hypers stores in the next 2 months. Go’ which has increased over the past
Currently available in 29 Checkers stores month as a payment method
Woolworths rolls out a drive-
through click and collect
shopping service to an additional 14
stores, after a successful pilot at the
Durbanville Food Store last week
https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/companies/pick-n-pay-offers-scan-and-pay-contactless-payments-in-stores-46723477
https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/companies/shoprite-the-first-retailer-to-offer-contactless-qr-payments-46630676
https://www.bizcommunity.com/Article/196/394/202824.html
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 13
https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2020/04/16/oh-woolies-has-a-drive-thru-now/Online essential sales have grown, but Takealot is seeing steep declines
Online retail was still in its infancy, but COVID-19 will change this landscape
• Woolworths has increased their • Pick ‘n Pay has increased its • Takealot is set to take a hit of
online capacity by 50% since the online delivery capacity by well R350mill in revenue since
start of the lockdown over 2,000 slots per week lockdown began
• For Easter, Woolworths had to open • Only doing ~15% of sales they
up almost 2,000 additional delivery normally would
slots, which were taken up in a
• The food-hailing service was at 2%
matter of hours to deal with the
capacity, mainly delivering
spike in demand
medicines and certain foods
– Head of Online and Mobile Liz Hillock
– Kim Reid, CEO of Takealot in an
https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2020/04/16/oh-woolies-has-a-drive-thru-now/
interview with Reuters
https://af.reuters.com/article/southAfricaNews/idAFL5N2C358T
https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/companies/takealot-takes-20m-hit-in-3-week-coronavirus-shutdown-46715630
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 14Recipe searches continue to increase. Alcohol and Cigarette searches increased
significantly after the lockdown extension announcement as anxiety increases
Bread and recipes related to Easter celebrations trended over the last week
Recipe Related Query Search
Search Terms – Interest over Time 1. Jenny Morris recipes
South Africa 2. Hand sanitizer recipes
3. Hot cross bun recipes
Recipes Alcohol Cigarettes
4. Pickled fish recipes
120
Lockdown
5. Crumpets recipes
Extension
100
SA State of Cigarettes Related Query Search
Disaster declared 1. Lockdown cigarettes
80 2. Cigarettes during lockdown
3. SA lockdown cigarettes
60 4. Buy cigarettes during lockdown
5. Can I buy cigarettes
40
Alcohol Related Query Search
1. Hand sanitizer
20 2. Alcohol hand sanitizer
3. Alcohol during lockdown
4. Methylated spirits
0
5. Alcohol ban south africa
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 15SA Social Posts and Sentiment: COVID-19; peaked when
lockdown was announced, with slightly more positive
sentiment relating to the lockdown announcement
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 16Positive sentiment on COVID-19 surrounded South Africans staying safe during
lockdown, with strong community values: share, together, help, stay safe
Top Topics
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 17SA Social Posts and Sentiment: Lockdown; also reaching its peak number of
posts on lockdown week with a 71% positive sentiment
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 18SA Social Posts and Sentiment: Lockdown. A strong sense of community is evident amongst fellow South
Africans, but there is strong anxiety around the pandemic, economy & police forces
Top Positive Topics
Top Negative Topics
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 19COVID-19 Category Impacts Growths from around the Globe Global data up to 29 March 2020
Sales begin to normalize to prior year levels across all countries
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 21Consumers in most countries (as in SA) are shifting to steady-state purchasing
post-stockpiling
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 22
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30In Hong Kong, consumers prepared for the worst and influenced early pantry stockpiling
driving double-digit growth in supermarket sales, an anomaly in a largely bleak retail
landscape
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 30Consumers also stocked up on pantry stables, baking products for home baking and household
cleaning products
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 31© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 32
South Africans adjust to their new normal during the lockdown extension
• The extension of the lockdown has started and shoppers are getting used to the new in-store
experiences
• Retailers are already changing the landscape with an increase in contactless payments and drive-
through shopping experiences
• A sense of community creates positive sentiment but concerns remain around health, police forces
and economic recession and this is likely to continue
• The muted Easter performance is evident of consumers already struggling financially, and turning to
categories that drive in-home baking and cooking, but purchasing less confectionery and beverages
vs Easter last year
• Consumers are adapting to the sheer number of meals they are preparing. They are turning to social
media for inspiration
• Alcohol and Cigarettes searches increase as consumers search for answers
• We are in a state of steady-state purchasing after the stock piling and finding more value in shelf
staple foods
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 33More information about COVID-19 across the IRI world
Visit our website and join our webinars to keep your finger on the pulse around the world
https://www.iriworldwide.com/en-sa
© 2020 Information Resources Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 34THANK
YOU!
For More Information, Contact Us…
IRI South Africa
1st Floor, Block D, Aintree Park, Doncaster Road, Kenilworth 7708
+ 27 21 700 7420
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