Longniddry South Education Impact Analysis Prestonpans Cluster of Schools - East Lothian Consultation Hub
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Education Impact Analysis Longniddry South Prestonpans Cluster of Schools
Contents
1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Page 2
2.0 INTRODUCTION Page 2
3.0 BACKGROUND Page 6
4.0 PUPIL PRODUCT RATIOS (PPR’S) ~ NUMBER AND THE PHASING OF HOMES AT
LONGNIDDRY SOUTH Page 6
5.0 PRESTONPANS CLUSTER OF SCHOOLS Page 10
5.1 NON-DENOMINATIONAL PRIMARY SCHOOL ROLLS AND
PREDICTIONS – PRESTONPANS Page 10
5.2 DENOMINATIONAL PRIMARY SCHOOL ROLLS AND PREDICTIONS –
PRESTONPANS Page 16
5.3 NON-DENOMINATIONAL SECONDARY EDUCATION –
PRESTONPANS Page 18
5.4 DENOMINATIONAL SECONDARY EDUCATION – PRESTONPANS Page 21
6.0 STRATEGIC OVERVIEW 360 HOUSING UNITS Page 22
7.0 STRATEGIC OVERVIEW 450 HOUSING UNITS Page 23
8.0 STRATEGIC OVERVIEW 1,000 HOUSING UNITS Page 24
9.0 CONCLUSIONS Page 25
Appendix 1 Page 1 School Roll Forecasting Process in East Lothian –
undated ELC Page 27
Appendix 1 Page 2 School Roll Forecasting Process in East Lothian –
undated ELC Page 28
Appendix 1 Page 3 School Roll Forecasting Process in East Lothian –
undated ELC Page 29
Appendix 1 Page 4 School Roll Forecasting Process in East Lothian –
undated ELC Page 30
Appendix 1 Page 5 School Roll Forecasting Process in East Lothian –
undated ELC Page 31
Appendix 2 – Plan from MIR showing Longniddry South ALT-P2 Page 32
Appendix 3 – Plan from MIR showing Blindwells extension boundaries Page 33
Appendix 4 – “Revised catchment area arrangements for
Non-denominational pre-school, primary and secondary education at
Blindwells, Tranent” Page 34
Appendix 5 – Existing Longniddry PS catchment area boundary Page 35
Appendix 6 – Existing Preston Lodge HS catchment area boundary Page 36
Appendix 7 – Extract of Table of Design Requirements for General Purpose
spaces in Primary Schools Page 37
Appendix 8 – Appendix C from Policy & Procedure Primary School DSM
Policy Document Page 38
1
1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
A development of up to 360 new houses at Longniddry South could be
accommodated at Longniddry PS without the need for any extension to the existing
building. East Lothian Council might need to put more rigorous pupil intake
management in place.
A development of up to 450 new houses at Longniddry South would generate
sufficient new primary pupils that Longniddry PS would need to be extended so as to
have an extra classroom, and an additional double-sized General Purpose space, but
both of these should be able to be delivered on the existing site. East Lothian Council
might need to put more rigorous pupil intake management in place.
A development at Longniddry South of 360, 450 or 1,000 units could be
accommodated at the Prestonpans Cluster Denominational primary school. The
school will “manage its own intake” without the need for an extension.
A development of up to 450 new houses at Longniddry South could be
accommodated at Preston Lodge HS at the same time as the initial 1,600 new houses
at Blindwells, so long as East Lothian Council confirms that the school’s capacity can
be increased beyond 1,050 pupils.
2.0 INTRODUCTION
2.1 This Education Impact Analysis has been produced in response to the Client Brief
which was to produce a report on “Education Capacity with regards to the
allocation of land at Longniddry South for new housing”.
A study into Longniddry PS capacity and options for extensions to existing site -
this should examine impacts of SCC’s current proposal of up to 450 new homes
and also of a larger development of up to 1,000 new homes, as suggested in the
MIR.
A view on options for Longniddry PS expansion on current site or on south side of
ECML (if delivering more than 450 new homes)
Show what the secondary capacity of Preston Lodge High School is and examine
how Longniddry could/should use that capacity rather than some of the other
development options in the MIR
Consider whether Longniddry expansion would jeopardise Blindwells from an
educational perspective or whether Longniddry can form part of education
solution to Blindwells.
2.2 The East Lothian MIR published on the 28th October 2014 has provided information
on the general approach to the Longniddry South site and this is set out below.
2
2.3 In summary it states that.... A southern expansion of Longniddry may be a
reasonable alternative development opportunity..... There would be a need for
increased primary education capacity, either through provision of a new primary
school at the site with associated catchment review, or by increasing the capacity of
Longniddry Primary with a new lower or upper primary facility provided at a
separate campus within any expansion area. Secondary education capacity may be
provided at Preston Lodge High School, but Blindwells should have priority for this.
Secondary education capacity may be provided at Preston Lodge High School, but
Blindwells should have priority for this. A comprehensive masterplan demonstrating
how new development to the south of the railway line may be integrated with the
wider landscape and the existing community to the north, including provision of
cycle and pedestrian links, would be required. There would also be a need to ensure
delivery of strategic Central Scotland Green Network objectives, including how these
would help secure a setting between any expansion of Longniddry and any
expansion of Blindwells.
6.35 Preston Lodge High School has existing capacity and the potential to
accommodate some further expansion. This could be used to facilitate
development of the following sites, subject to catchment reviews where
necessary:
Blindwells is an integral part of the SDP strategy, and an existing committed
allocation. It should be given priority for infrastructure provision. The current
education catchment and strategy for Blindwells may be reviewed such that, at
least in the early years of development, primary pupils from the new settlement
could attend Cockenzie Primary School and secondary pupils could attend
Preston Lodge. This would allow viable pupil rolls to develop for new facilities to
be provided on the Blindwells site; or
If a Musselburgh based education solution is not found for the Goshen site, it
may be included within Preston Lodge High’s catchment, subject to a review of
cluster and catchment boundaries by the Council; or
Land at Longniddry may also be accommodated at Preston Lodge should the
development of that site be supported.
However, the cumulative impact of any combination of these sites on Preston
Lodge High School could not be accommodated by the school, even if it were
expanded
6.37 If the expansion of Longniddry were to be supported it would require additional
primary school capacity as the existing primary school has little or no capacity for
expansion. A new school south of the ECML would do little for community
integration. A split school, with the p1-3 and p4-7 delivered on separate sites on
either side of the ECML (one being the existing school) would be better for
community integration. This does, however, raise issues of increased travel by
car between the two campuses, putting particular pressure on the existing
3
narrow railway underbridge. This would be undesirable in transport terms and a
potential road safety risk.
In the MIR - Appendix 5 - more information has been provided
The site is within the Longniddry Primary School catchment, which has limited
capacity and is unlikely to be able to expand on its current site. The scale of
growth proposed may require the provision of a new primary school to serve the
site. Preston Lodge High School does have some spare capacity but dependent
upon the scale of development proposed it may require to be expanded.
Blindwells Role in Meeting Housing Requirements
5.45 The approved SDP has a long-term vision for Blindwells new settlement: this is the
creation of a large scale new mixed community that will contribute to meeting
housing land requirements up to 2032 and beyond. The SDP requires the LDP to
seek comprehensive solutions that may allow the new settlement to expand from
its current allocation of 1,600 homes to around 4,600 homes. If comprehensive
solutions are found for a larger new settlement, this would allow the likely scale of
the new settlement to be confirmed and an area of land to be identified within
which development of a larger new settlement may take place29. As such, this MIR
identifies a ‘Blindwells Expansion Area of Search’ as the area for which
comprehensive development solutions for a potential larger new settlement should
be investigated. The SDP also notes that the principles of the current Blindwells local
plan proposal may need to be reviewed as part of this.
5.46 The approved SDP expects that Blindwells need only contribute housing land to its
spatial strategy after 2019. It expects no more than the numerical requirement for
1,600 homes already allocated to the new settlement to be delivered by 2032.
Notwithstanding this, if comprehensive solutions for the delivery of the entire and
potentially larger new settlement are found31 the SDP would not preclude more
housing land being developed within any Finalised Blindwells Development Area in
the short to medium term. The LDPs MIR has a key role in highlighting and creating
the context for consulting on potential development strategies and seeking to find
comprehensive solutions that would be required to finalise any larger Blindwells
Development Area, including how these options will impact on the timescales within
which it can deliver housing land through time. This will inform the approach to
Blindwells set out in the Proposed LDP.
5.47 Importantly, the implication of not being able to bring forward housing land at
Blindwells in the short to medium term may be an increased need to identify
greenfield land for housing elsewhere in East Lothian in order to meet housing
requirements. This land would likely need to be found around existing settlements.
The implication of expanding the current Blindwells allocation without a clear
comprehensive strategy and agreed solutions for how a single new settlement can
be delivered would bring the same implications for the use of greenfield land but
may also result in piecemeal development in the open countryside. This would
undermine the SDPs vision for Blindwells.
4
2.4 The plan has to identify land which is able to be developed and to deliver 6,250
homes to 2019 and a further 3,800 homes in the period 2019 – 2024, but do not
limit the scale of land release to that which is needed to meet only those
requirements.
6.101 In terms of the provision of education capacity for the new settlement, the options
for the provision of secondary education capacity for Blindwells are as follows:
a. A new secondary school is provided on-site for the first occupancy of dwellings at
the site; or
b. Preston Lodge High School is used to accommodate the pupils from the current
allocation, and if the settlement grows beyond the current allocation a new
secondary school would be provided in association with any subsequent phases of
expansion;
c. If the settlement does not expand beyond the current allocation, and if b) is
followed, then a new secondary school may not be required at this site.
6.102 In terms of the provision of primary education capacity, up to 4 new primary schools
may be needed at Blindwells depending on if and how the new settlement grows.
The options for the provision of primary education capacity for Blindwells are as
follows:
a. A new primary school is provided on-site for the first occupancy of dwellings at
the site;
b. Cockenzie Primary School could be used to provide temporary primary education
solution before a new primary school is provided at Blindwells once a viable pupil
roll has developed. Once the primary school is in place at the site:
i) If 1,600 homes are to be delivered at Blindwells 1 new primary would be
needed. It should feed Preston Lodge High School. This would become the
final primary solution for Blindwells new settlement;
ii) If Blindwells is to grow beyond 1,600 homes, perhaps to 3,500 - 6,000+
homes into the much longer term, then 2 – 4 new primary schools may be
needed to support the relevant amount of housing development. A new
secondary school cluster at Blindwells may be created for this.
6.103 If Blindwells were to grow beyond 1,600 homes at this stage the preferred spatial
strategy to support the delivery of new education facilities at the site would be to
follow the existing (and currently required) west to east phasing of the
development:
Phase 1: Utilise the approach set out at (a or b) above for the first 1,600 homes;
then
Phase 2/3: for the second and any third phase of expansion provide a new
secondary school and primary school(s) in the middle of the Blindwells Development
Area, and if required another primary school to the east.
5
3.0 BACKGROUND
3.1 For the avoidance of doubt, there are normally five elements to the Scottish school
estate, but each local authority is free to determine its own pattern of provision to
accommodate each of these five parts of the pupil population:-
1. Pre-school provision (3 & 4 year olds)
2. Non Denominational (ND) primary
3. Non Denominational (ND) secondary
4. Denominational Primary (mainly, but not exclusively Roman Catholic)
5. Denominational Secondary (both of which we label (RC) for ease of reference
throughout this report)
4.0 PUPIL PRODUCT RATIOS (PPR’S) ~ NUMBER AND
PHASING OF HOMES AT LONGNIDDRY SOUTH
Table 1: Extract of Table 15: MIR. - Existing Housing Supply Prestonpans cluster: -
Total
2009 - 2019 2019 - 2024
NO. OF UNITS
134 20 154
Table 2: East Lothian Pupil Product Ratios applied to Longniddry South with 360,
450 homes and 1,000 homes
No. of No. of
No. of
children children
Pupils children
arising arising
Sector Product arising from
from 360 from 1,000
Ratios 450 homes
homes homes
over time
over time over time
Pre-school (3/4 year olds)
0.075 27 33.75 75
(Blindwells/Wallyford)
Pre-school (3/4 year olds) (Letham) 0.097 35 43.65 97
Primary Non-Denominational (ND)
0.336 121 151.2 336
P1-P7
Primary Denominational P1-P7 0.02 8 9 20
Secondary Non-Denominational (ND) 0.16 58 72 160
6
Table 3: East Lothian Pupil Product Ratios applied to Blindwells – 1,600 homes and 4,600
homes
No. of children No. of children
Pupils
arising from arising from
Sector Product
1,600 homes 4,600 homes
Ratios
over time over time
Pre-school (3/4 year olds)
0.075 120 345
(Blindwells/Wallyford)
Pre-school (3/4 year olds) (Letham) 0.097 155.2 446.2
Primary Non-Denominational (ND) P1-P7 0.336 537.6 1,545.6
Primary Denominational P1-P7 0.02 32 92
Secondary Non-Denominational (ND) 0.16 256 736
(Source – ELC FOI April 2012 & Blindwells Development Framework)
4.1 Audit 2013, Draft Audit 2014 and FOI 2014/1141(7274) show the first housing at
Blindwells coming forward in Audit year 2019/20 (See Table 21).
4.2 The pupil product ratios in Tables 2 and 3 apply to all East Lothian schools unless
otherwise stated.
4.3 East Lothian Council has recently revised its methodology for predicting P1’s at
primary schools in the context of the annual school roll projection process. This will
make the calculation results in Table 2 & 3 appear somewhat simplistic but the
Pupil Product Ratios used in the table have been previously, and are currently,
provided by East Lothian Council. (See Appendix 1)
4.4 The only precise way to have accurate roll projection figures would be for East
Lothian Council to run them with their P1 assumptions based on the proposed
annual house completion/occupation figures for Longniddry South shown in Tables
6 & 7.
4.5 In the past this information could not be provided by East Lothian Council by way of
a FOI request because the “information” does not exist.
4.6 East Lothian Council currently has modest levels of pupil intake management at
Longniddry PS to retain 1 place per stage available to pupils migrating into the
school catchment area during the academic year. As can be seen in Table 11. The %
non-district in the school has fluctuated in recent years.
7
Table 4: Pre-school facilities in the Prestonpans cluster (a.m. & pm) for 3 and 4 year old
children
Floor area Capacity Capacity Pre-school Pre-school Pre- Current
m² a.m. p.m. pupils pupils school Maximum
attending attending pupils capacity
June 2012 June 2013 attending per day
June 2014 a.m./p.m.
Prestonpans 68.5
Infant School – (68.5 60 60 119 120 117 120
nursery class maximum)
St Gabriel’s RC
Bay 1 = 45
PS - Nursery 48 48 39 78 89 96
Bay 2 = 65
class
Cockenzie PS Bay 1 = 60,
Nursery class Bay 2 = 61
Bay 3 = 58 77 77 113 115 112 154
TOTAL = 179
Longniddry PS Maximum Maximum
62 47 48 49 Max. 54
– Nursery class 27 27
(Source – FOI 2014/1141(7274) 11th December 2014)
4.7 Pre-school facilities are currently not provided by East Lothian Council on a
catchment area basis. This means that pre-school age children can attend any pre-
school facility within East Lothian, including the cluster nurseries.
4.8 The areas and sizes of nurseries shown in Table 4 were provided by East Lothian
Council as part of FOI 2014/1141(7274) on 11th December 2014 they:- “ were
calculated as a ‘desktop’ exercise, using available record drawings (to achieve 100%
accuracy, a full measured survey of each nursery would be required). The maximum
capacities of the rooms are calculated using the space standards for non-domestic
childcare published by the Care Inspectorate – in this case 2.3m² per child aged 3
and over. Areas calculated are clear floor space, exclusive of fixtures (e.g. kitchen
units), in accordance with Care Inspectorate guidelines.”
4.9 Table 3 indicates that 1,600 homes at Blindwells could generate up to 120 3 to 4
year old pupils. It also indicates that 1,600 units would generate up to 538 ND
primary aged pupils over time. The MIR in paragraph 6.102 b.) indicates that
Cockenzie Primary School could be used to provide temporary a primary education
solution before a new primary school is provided at Blindwells once a viable pupil
roll developed. Once the primary school is in place at the site:
i) If 1,600 homes are to be delivered at Blindwells 1 new primary school would be
needed. It should feed Preston Lodge High School. This would become the final
primary solution for Blindwells new settlement;
8
ii) If Blindwells is to grow beyond 1,600 homes, perhaps to 3,500 – 6,000+ homes in
to the much longer term, then 2-4 new primary schools may be needed to
support the relevant amount of housing development. A new secondary school
cluster at Blindwells may be created for this.
4.10 As can be seen from the statement above East Lothian Council see Cockenzie PS as
the temporary location for an initial stage of pre-school and primary capacity for
Blindwells but that capacity at Cockenzie PS could not accommodate the whole of
the first stage (1,600 homes) arising from Blindwells. Therefore the new on-site
pre-school/primary school at Blindwells will be required to be provided quite early
on but the MIR does not explicitly state this. (I would estimate within 6/8 audit
years of it receiving planning consent. See the Blindwells annual house
completions/occupations in Table 21.) As soon as the Blindwells pre-school/primary
school facility is available for use the capacity for pre-school on a non-catchment
basis is either increased, if Blindwells is seen as part of the Prestonpans cluster, or
the existing capacity is not threatened if Blindwells is not seen as part of the
Prestonpans cluster.
Table 5: Table showing the peak (June) numbers in the nursery between 2012 - 2014
Total nursery Total nursery Total nursery
TOTAL NUMBERS -
Pupils - June Pupils June - Pupils June -
JUNE
2012 2013 2014
Prestonpans IS 119 120 117
St Gabriel’s RC PS 39 77 89
Cockenzie PS 113 115 111
Longniddry PS 47 48 49
Source – FOI 2014/1141(7274) 11th December 2014)
4.11 The space currently being used by Longniddry Nursery class will require to be
measured accurately in due course and may require to be expanded and/or
optimised by the use of space effective furniture and fittings. For the nursery class
to run effectively, from a staffing point of view, it would require to be a fully
functioning 30/30 facility - up to 60 pupils in total per day. The annual June 3 and 4
year old nursery age pupil numbers for the past 3 years are shown in Table 5. East
Lothian Council does not run roll projections for pre-school but it can be seen that
there is spare capacity at Longniddry Nursery Class.
95.0 PRESTONPANS CLUSTER OF SCHOOLS
5.1 Non-Denominational Primary School rolls and predictions -
Prestonpans
5.1.1 No housing sites were allocated in Prestonpans in the East Lothian Local Plan 2008,
however there were a number of sites that were allocated in the East Lothian Local
Plan 2000 and some of these are still coming forward. These sites have planning
permission and a residual number of houses remain to be completed and occupied.
These are included in Table 1.
5.1.2 Housing numbers and annual phased completions/occupations have the greatest
influence on school roll projections (See 4.3 & 4.4). The education authority needs
to use an agreed set of housing figures for school roll projection purposes that do
not change, other than at Audit review time or at the time of a planning
application.
Table 6: January 2015 proposed annual house occupations Longniddry South 360 units – with a
building commencement in 2018/19 > 2027/28 ~ 40 units per year
Year Total
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 10 Pupils
Total per audit
year
25 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 15 360
Potential ND
primary pupils
numbers
8.4 13.44 13.44 13.44 13.44 13.44 13.44 13.44 13.44 5.04 120.96
generated by
360 units over
time
Cumulate PS
8.4 21.84 35.28 48.72 62.16 75.6 89.04 102.48 115.92 120.96 120.96
pupil nos.
Potential
secondary
pupils
numbers 4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 2.4 64
generated by
360 units over
time
Cumulate SS
4 10.4 16.8 23.2 29.6 36 42.4 48.8 55.2 57.6 57.6
pupil nos.
Potential
denom primary
pupils
numbers 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 7.2
generated by
360 units over
time
5.1.3 Commencement of housing in Year 1 shown in Table 6 is currently anticipated as
being 2018/19 Audit year.
105.1.4 From a school roll projection point of view, East Lothian Council views the pre-
school pupils in the main, arising 3-4 years after the occupation of the new housing
(Year 1); non-denominational primary pupils arising 5 years after the occupation of
the new housing (Year 1). (See Appendix 1).
Table 7: January 2015 proposed annual house occupations Longniddry South 450 units –
2018/19 > 2027/28 ~ 50 units per year
Total
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Pupils
Total per audit
25 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 25 450
year
Potential ND
primary pupils
numbers 8.4 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 8.4 151.2
generated by 450
units over time
Cumulate PS
pupil nos.
8.4 25.2 42 58.8 75.6 92.4 109.2 126 142.8 151.2 151.2
Potential
secondary pupils
numbers 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 4 72
generated by 450
units over time
Cumulate SS
4 12 20 28 36 44 52 60 68 72 72
pupil nos.
Potential denom
primary pupils
numbers 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0.5 9
generated by 450
units over time
Table 8: Historic rolls Longniddry Primary School 2003 - 2014
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total 309 284 273 282 272 243 232 219 232 232 208 206 195
Roll
P1 52 28 50 45 34 25 30 33 29 39 19 36 23
P2 48 48 27 48 42 32 26 31 33 32 39 18 34
P3 43 45 48 29 46 42 34 25 33 33 32 36 18
P4 43 44 43 44 28 44 39 34 29 31 33 32 32
P5 37 40 43 42 44 27 45 38 34 28 30 32 30
P6 46 34 35 40 39 37 24 37 38 31 27 28 32
P7 40 45 27 34 39 36 34 21 36 38 28 24 26
(Source SEED websites)
5.1.5 From a school roll projection point of view, East Lothian Council, views in the main
the non-denominational secondary pupils arising 11 years after the occupation of
the new housing (Year 1). (See Appendix 1)
5.1.6 Between 2010 and 2013 the campus area of Longniddry Primary School has been
described by East Lothian Council as being between 1.3396ha and 1.3415ha.
11Table 9: Longniddry PS capacities and room utilisation by year 2002 - 2014
Academic School Roll P1-P7 Capacity Number of
Year rooms used as
classrooms
2002/3 309 N/A 12
2003/4 284 N/A 11
2004/5 273 N/A 11
2005/6 282 N/A 11
2006/7 272 N/A 11
2007/8 243 297 10
2008/9 232 254 9
2009/10 219 257 9
2010/11 232 254 9
2011/12 232 262 9
2012/13 208 305 8
2013/14 206 ? 8
2014/15 195 ? 8
5.1.7 Regulations in Scotland determine the spatial requirements of school campuses.
The Sportscotland document School Playing Fields – Planning and Design Guidance
2006 provides us with the opportunity to appreciate the value to the school and
the community of the existing Synthetic Grass Pitch within Longniddry PS campus
and the proximity to the school of Longniddry Recreation Park. They provide
excellent opportunities for the school in relation to PE in the curriculum and also to
the Community. The playing capacity of a synthetic grass pitch is unlimited and
makes a significant contribution to the multi use of the space in the context of The
School Premises (General Requirements and Standards) (Scotland) Regulations
1967.
5.1.8 In Table 10b the current maximum predicted school roll at Longniddry PS is 218. A
primary school with that roll would require 9 classrooms.
5.1.9 We do not have access to the East Lothian Council school roll projection process
but the September 2014 Longniddry PS roll (See Table 8) of 195 has 28 (14.4%) non
district pupils (See Table 11). It is predicted to rise up to 199 pupils in 2023/24 (five
years after the commencement of Longniddry South) (See Table 10b). The figure of
199 then drops to 183 in 2028 and the 14.4% non district pupils will continue to
remain in these roll forecasts.
5.1.10 With the 304 pupils generated with 360 new houses 12 classrooms would be
required (See Table 12 and Appendix 8). The historic largest number of classrooms
used in recent years at Longniddry Primary School is 12 (See Table 9). This indicates
that the school could accommodate pupils from 360 housing units over time within
the existing school building.
12Table 10a: Roll projections Longniddry Primary School from 2013 - 2026
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Total 215 202 197 188 182 183 193 176 183 191 196 203 194 188
Roll
P1 38 17 27 25 26 39 31 20 25 35 30 33 29 25
P2 19 37 17 27 25 26 38 30 20 25 34 30 32 29
P3 38 18 37 16 26 24 25 38 30 19 24 34 29 32
P4 31 38 18 36 16 26 24 25 37 29 19 24 33 29
P5 32 31 37 18 36 16 25 23 24 36 29 19 23 33
P6 30 32 30 36 17 35 16 25 23 24 36 29 18 23
P7 27 29 31 30 36 17 34 15 24 23 24 35 28 18
(Source FOI 2013 - 306 – ELC 13th May 2013)
Table 10b: Roll projections Longniddry Primary School from 2015 - 2028
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Total 188 177 170 175 183 200 204 218 199 193 185 176 174 183
Roll
P1 25 27 27 37 32 40 24 39 16 27 27 27 37 32
P2 22 24 26 27 35 33 40 24 37 15 26 26 26 36
P3 33 21 23 25 25 36 33 39 22 35 15 25 25 25
P4 17 31 20 22 24 26 36 32 37 21 34 14 24 24
P5 31 17 30 20 21 25 26 35 30 35 21 32 13 23
P6 29 29 16 29 19 21 24 25 33 29 34 20 30 13
P7 31 28 28 15 27 19 21 24 24 31 28 32 19 30
(Source FOI 2014/1141(7274) ELC 11th Dec 2014)
Table 11: Longniddry PS % District/Non-District pupils
Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Catchment 181 183 191 200 181 174 167
Pupils (78%) (83.5%) (82.33%) (86.21%) (87%) (84.5%) (85.6%)
Non-Catchment 51 36 41 32 27 32 28
Pupils (22%) (16.5%) (17.67%) (13.79) (13%) (15.5%) (14.4%)
5.1.11 Having a more focussed pupil intake management system in place over a sustained
period would give greater assurance to the Council that space would be available
for the 360 and 450 housing unit options over time.
5.1.12 With the 335 pupils generated by existing possible pupils and those from 450 new
houses 13 classrooms would be required. The historic largest number of classrooms
used in recent years at Longniddry Primary School is 12 (See Table 9). This indicates
that the school would/might require an extension.
13Table 12: “Simplistic” Longniddry PS School roll projections January 2015 – 360 units 40
units per Audit Year
Audit Year 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33
Year when Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14
ELC roll
projections
(in the main)
recognise P1
intake
ELC 199 193 185 176 174 183 183 183 183 183
predicted rolls
Table 10b
Accumulated 8.4 21.84 35.28 48.72 62.16 75.6 89.04 102.48 115.92 120.96
pupil nos.
from Table 6
TOTAL 207.4 214.84 220.28 224.72 236.16 258.6 272.04 285.48 298.96 303.97
Table 13: “Simplistic” Longniddry PS School roll projections January 2015 – 450 units 50
units per Audit Year
Audit Year 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28 2028/29 2029/30 2030/31 2031/32 2032/33
Year when Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14
ELC roll
projections
(in the main)
recognise P1
intake
ELC 199 193 185 176 174 183 183 183 183 183
predicted rolls
Table 10b
Accumulated 8.4 25.2 42 58.8 75.6 92.4 109.2 126 142.8 151.2
pupil nos.
from Table 6
TOTAL 207.4 218.2 227 234.8 249.6 275.4 292.2 309 325.8 334.2
5.1.13 A 13 classroom school would require 2 or 3 GP spaces depending on which row is
examined in the GP space policy document. (The school currently functions with at
least (2) two such rooms). (See Appendix 7)
5.1.14 In the document Policy for the design of General Purpose space in Primary
Schools that was approved by East Lothian Council Committee for Education on the
16th March 2010 there is a statement to the effect that Any School requiring three
or more General Purpose spaces, the third should be a 120m2 Movement & Dance
Studio, capable of division into two units. The cut off point for this in the Table in
the report is a 13 classroom school. To meet Sportscotland’s criteria, where school
rolls exceed a two-stream model, of 411 pupils and above, requires two PE spaces.
This second space may not be required by the timetable solely for PE and as such
should be capable of use as a dual use space. Accordingly the East Lothian model is
of a double classroom size, 120m², a pair of rooms with a sliding partition allowing
use as the Movement & Dance Studio when required, and may be used more
14generally at other times for General Purpose activity. Where the roll boundary
crosses to a three-stream school, it is highly likely that such a studio will be
exclusively used for PE. (See Appendix 7) East Lothian Council in its School Estate
Strategy May 2010 has accepted the advice set out in the Sportscotland document
Primary School Sports Facilities 2004.
5.1.16 Therefore, in order for Longniddry PS to accommodate all the pupils generated by
an expansion of 450 new homes at Longniddry South, it would require a 13th
classroom and that might require a new double GP “Movement and Dance Studio”,
as described above. The space requirement is dependent on the interpretation of
the GP space Policy as it relates to “13 class bases” (See Appendix 7)
5.1.17 In due course we will need to undertake a room-by-room assessment using the
current East Lothian Council space standards policies and identify
appropriate/updated uses for all of the rooms/spaces in the context of a school roll
which may require 13 classrooms (up to 351 pupils).
5.1.18 The existence of the Synthetic Grass Pitch within the Longniddry PS campus has a
major contribution to optimising use of external space in the Longniddry PS campus
as a floodlit facility it is also an excellent training facility for local football
teams/clubs. The playing capacity of a synthetic grass pitch is unlimited. This facility
increases the playground “carrying capacity” in all weathers. Its existence would
allow a school extension without increasing the campus size (para 5.1.6). It starts to
address the School Scotland Regulations of 1967 which still determine campus
sizes.
5.1.19 A suitable location on campus might need to be found for a new double GP
“Movement and Dance Studio” as part of the space assessment exercise plus
enough space for a 13th classroom. It is our professional opinion that the current
campus has enough space for this level of expansion; however, we need to do a
room-by-room assessment and a detailed building survey in order to produce
definitive proposals. Longniddry PS is a “B” listed building.
5.1.20 It should also be noted that even without any expansion to the existing Longniddry
PS there is considerable spare capacity at the school, which should be used to
accommodate children from any new development at Longniddry South.
155.2 DENOMINATIONAL PRIMARY SCHOOL ROLLS AND PREDICTIONS -
PRESTONPANS
Table 14: Historic rolls St. Gabriel’s RC Primary School 2003 - 2014
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total 156 155 170 165 176 181 181 189 182 178 185 190
Roll
P1 26 21 30 18 23 25 26 30 19 28 26 25
P2 18 25 21 29 19 25 25 27 30 21 34 26
P3 29 19 29 23 29 19 26 25 27 27 25 30
P4 16 28 20 27 22 32 19 27 23 28 24 23
P5 26 16 28 23 29 24 32 21 30 23 31 31
P6 19 25 16 28 26 31 25 33 20 29 22 30
P7 22 21 26 17 28 25 28 26 33 22 23 25
(Source SEED websites)
5.2.1 The current catchment area for denominational primary education for the
Longniddry South development site is St. Gabriel’s RC Primary School.
5.2.2 The actual school rolls for St. Gabriel’s RC PS from 2003 until 2014 are set out in
table 14 above. May 2013 roll projections from 2015 to 2028 are set out in table
15b.
5.2.3 The school building GIFA is 1,902m² and the site curtilage is 15,951m². The building
is condition B (Satisfactory) with suitability A (Good). (Sources: Dec 2012 Scottish
Government on line resources)
Table 15a: Roll projections St. Gabriel’s RC Primary School from 2013 - 2026
Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Total 199 202 211 217 220 227 223 212 207 200 193 192 193 193
Roll
P1 39 31 33 35 30 29 25 28 27 26 27 30 30 25
P2 29 39 31 33 35 30 29 25 28 27 26 27 30 30
P3 21 29 39 31 33 35 30 29 25 28 27 26 27 30
P4 28 22 29 39 31 33 35 30 29 25 28 27 26 27
P5 29 28 22 29 40 31 33 35 30 29 25 28 27 26
P6 23 29 28 22 29 40 31 33 35 30 29 25 28 27
P7 30 24 29 28 22 29 40 32 33 35 30 29 25 28
(Source FOI 2013 - 306 – ELC 13th May 2013)
16Table 15b: Roll projections St. Gabriel’s RC Primary School from 2015 - 2028
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Total 190 190 193 197 197 195 186 190 186 178 171 170 157 170
Roll
P1 25 30 25 31 26 29 20 27 20 19 26 21 21 31
P2 25 25 32 25 31 25 28 20 28 20 19 27 20 21
P3 26 25 27 31 26 31 25 29 21 28 20 19 26 21
P4 30 26 26 26 32 25 31 25 30 21 28 20 19 27
P5 23 30 27 26 27 32 25 31 27 30 21 29 20 20
P6 31 23 32 27 27 27 31 26 33 27 30 22 29 21
P7 30 31 24 31 28 26 26 32 27 33 27 32 22 29
(Source FOI 2014/1141(7274) ELC 11th Dec 2014)
5.2.4 Note: - the stated capacity in 2011/12 academic year of St. Gabriel’s RC Primary
School was 217 in 7 classrooms with a roll of 182 pupils. There are no plans to
increase the capacity of this school even with the proposed 154 houses in this
school catchment area (See Table 1). In any event ca. 35% – 51% of the school roll
is non-denominational (ND) (See Table 16) in a denominational school. In 2014/15
academic year 16 pupils 8.2% of school roll was non-catchment (See Table 17). I
believe that the school will “manage its own intake” without the need for
extension. This would not be the case if Blindwells denominational pupils could
legitimately “feed” into Preston Lodge HS catchment area.
5.2.5 In 2014 – 8.2% of the St. Gabriel’s RC Primary School school roll is non district. The
school roll projections in Table 15b will include that proportion.
5.2.6 In 2014 – 44.7% of the St. Gabriel’s RC PS roll is non-denominational. The school
roll projections in Tables 15b will include that proportion.
Table 16: St Gabriel’s RC PS % Denominational/ND pupils
Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Denominational 68.2% 59.1% 59.3% n/a 64.3% 48.3% n/a 55.3%
pupils
Non- 31.8% 40.9% 40.7% n/a 35.7% 51.7% n/a 44.7%
Denominational
Pupils (ND)
Table 17: St Gabriel’s RC PS % District/Non-District pupils
Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Catchment Pupils 97.79% 95.18% 97.88% 97.8% 97.19% 92.1% 91.8%
Non-Catchment 2.21% 4.82% 2.12% 2.2% 2.81% 7.9% 8.2%
Pupils
17Table 18: Trends in Prestonpans cluster all Primary School rolls 2003 - 2013
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
All cluster 1,439 1,380 1,385 1,383 1,371 1,294 1,270 1,287 1,304 1,289 1,328 1,357
group feeder
Primary
schools actual
rolls
5.3 NON-DENOMINATIONAL SECONDARY EDUCATION - PRESTONPANS
5.3.1 The development at Longniddry South is currently in the Preston Lodge High School
catchment area.
Table 19: Historic rolls Preston Lodge High School 2003 - 2014
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total 906 980 964 965 970 1,004 1,048 1,014 998 1,011 1,028 1,000
Roll
S1 197 215 185 188 176 227 198 171 172 174 195 183
S2 199 193 208 187 190 178 224 202 169 177 180 199
S3 168 203 194 204 185 194 172 223 203 170 177 178
S4 174 172 195 197 203 186 190 168 219 201 169 174
S5 116 116 128 138 147 155 154 154 131 185 178 146
S6 52 81 54 51 69 64 110 96 104 104 129 120
(Source SEED websites)
Table 20a: Roll projections Preston Lodge High School from 2011 - 2020
Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total 1,031 996 999 967 946 950 933 939 907 891
Roll
S1 181 184 196 184 178 202 185 207 160 173
S2 173 184 187 194 182 174 196 179 200 155
S3 203 175 186 185 192 178 169 190 174 194
S4 224 205 178 185 183 187 173 164 185 169
S5 140 176 162 138 142 139 142 130 124 139
S6 110 72 90 81 69 70 68 69 64 61
(Source FOI 2010-759 (1056) ELC 23rd Dec 2010)
18Table 20b: Roll projections Preston Lodge High School from 2015 - 2028
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Total 951 957 918 926 910 915 923 941 1,009 1,033 1,073 1,082 1,063 1,029
Roll
S1 163 190 167 177 176 184 186 191 230 192 235 206 202 151
S2 178 159 181 166 172 172 178 183 189 228 185 227 196 200
S3 193 174 152 180 162 168 166 175 181 187 221 180 216 194
S4 173 189 166 151 175 157 162 163 173 179 181 214 171 214
S5 146 146 156 143 127 147 131 138 140 149 150 152 176 147
S6 98 99 96 109 98 87 100 91 96 98 101 103 102 123
(Source FOI 2014/1141(7274) ELC 11th Dec 2014)
5.3.2 Note: - the stated functional capacity (December 2014) of Preston Lodge High
School was 1,050 but the “maximum number of pupils the school could
accommodate is 1,099 ”. However, it has also previously been stated that
Musselburgh GS could be managed (Educationally) with up to 1,350 pupils (1,399),
and so this needs to be considered at Preston Lodge HS (Educationally and
physically, with possible solutions to allow that greater capacity to be explored
by/with East Lothian Council.
5.3.3 The school building GIFA is 13,323m² and the site curtilage is 63,204m². The
building is condition B (Satisfactory) with suitability B (Satisfactory).
(Sources: Dec 2013 Scottish Government on line resources)
5.3.4 Table 20b indicates the school roll at Preston Lodge HS rising but these figures do
not include any Blindwells Housing. The rise in these rolls may be caused by a
“demographic blip” in the way births are taken account of on an ongoing basis in
the roll projections processes.
5.3.5 There is some external space available on site at Preston Lodge High School to
extend the school building. The existence of a full size Synthetic Grass Pitch within
the Preston Lodge HS campus maximises external space at Preston Lodge HS
campus. The playing capacity of synthetic grass pitches is unlimited.
5.3.6 From a school roll projection point of view, East Lothian Council in the main, views
the non-denominational secondary pupils arising 11 years after the occupation of
the new housing. (See Appendix 1)
5.3.7 I have examined the feasibility of undertaking a “Simplistic” secondary school roll
projection in the same way as I have done in the primary school by including a
portion of the first stage of Blindwells and Longniddry South. The timescales are
very long and the variables of P7-S1 transfer and stay on rates too volatile. I will
therefore undertake the numbers assessment more crudely.
5.3.8 We do not have access to the East Lothian Council school roll projection process
but in September 2014 Preston Lodge HS had a roll of 1,000 pupils and it had 82
(8.2%) non district pupils. The roll at Preston Lodge HS is predicted to rise up to
191,029 pupils in 2028/29 (ten years after the commencement of Longniddry South).
We do not have access to a 2029 Preston Lodge HS projection figure but it could be
reasonably assumed to be in further decline at that time beyond the 1,029 figure.
However, I will use that figure to demonstrate possible approaches in 6.0, 7.0 and
8.0.
Table 21: January 2015 proposed annual house completions/occupations Blindwells 1,600
units – 2019/20 > 2035/36
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Total
No of units 24 48 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 122 122 122 122 70 1,600
Pre-school 1.8 3.6 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 5.3 120
pupils
Accumulate 1.8 5.4 12.7 20 27.2 34.5 41.8 49.1 56.3 63.6 70.9 78.2 87.3 96.5 105.6 114.8 120
d pre-school
pupils
PS Pupils 8.1 16.1 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.6 41 41 41 41 23.5 537.6
Accumulate 8.1 24.2 56.8 89.4 122 154.6 187.2 219.7 252.3 284.9 317.5 350.1 391.1 432.1 473.1 514.1 537.6
d PS Pupils
SS Pupils 3.8 7.7 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 11.2 256
Accumulate 3.8 11.5 27 42.6 58.1 73.6 89.1 104.6 120.2 135.7 151.2 166.7 186.2 205.8 225.3 244.8 256
d SS Pupils
5.3.9 Commencement of housing in Year 1 shown in Table 21 is currently anticipated as
being 2019/20 Audit year.
5.3.10 From a school roll projection point of view East Lothian Council, in the main, views
the non-denominational primary pupils arising 5 years after the occupation of the
new housing. (See Appendix 1)
5.3.11 From a school roll projection point of view, East Lothian Council in the main, views
the non-denominational secondary pupils arising 11 years after the occupation of
the new housing. (See Appendix 1)
Table 22: Showing various housing numbers at Longniddry South with existing current
pupil intake effect at Preston Lodge with 100% of that school roll being “district”
Longniddry Preston Preston Lodge Preston Lodge HS
South Lodge HS HS 2028/29 ELC 2028/29 projected
Secondary 2014 actual projected roll roll minus 8.2% non
Pupil numbers roll (See Table 20b) district Sept 2014
based on ELC figure (Table 21)
PPR
360 Housing 58 1,000 1,029 945
Units
450 Housing 72 1,000 1,029 945
Units
1,000 160 1,000 1,029 945
Housing
Units
205.3.12 There does appear to be a developing trend of increased non-district placing
requests at Preston Lodge HS. Should Blindwells pupils attend this school, even for
a short period, pupil intake management should be put in place in order to
maximise space for district pupils and Blindwells
5.3.13 For example, if the 8.2% of pupil places used by non-district children in 2014 were
reserved for district children, those 82 places would assist in providing secondary
places required by Blindwells and Longniddry South.
Table 23: Preston Lodge High School % District/Non-District pupils
Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept Sept
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Catchment 94.74% 95.67% 96.23% 96.09% 96.2% 95.77% 94.54% 92.1% 91.8%
Pupils
Non-Catchment 5.26% 4.33% 3.77% 3.91% 3.8% 4.23% 5.46% 7.9% 8.2%
Pupils
5.4 DENOMINATIONAL SECONDARY - PRESTONPANS
5.4.1 All eligible pupils both denominational and non-denominational can attend Preston
Lodge High School.
216.0 STRATEGIC OVERVIEW: 360 HOUSING UNITS AT LONGNIDDRY SOUTH
6.1 Pre-school – we would need to establish that the existing nursery can function as a
30/30 nursery class. There could be sufficient space in the existing facility which
together with appropriate modern flexible furniture could ensure that this element
could cope well with the pre-school pupils arising from up to 360 units over time.
There is currently spare capacity in the available cluster nursery space which
provides considerable flexibility for parental choice in this area, but some of that
(Cockenzie Nursery Class) may be used in due course by Blindwells for a short time.
6.2 Primary school capacity - there would currently appear to be up to 12 classroom
spaces available at Longniddry PS. We believe that, based on the number and
phasing of housing, the school might require only these 12 classrooms over time,
which would then provide sufficient capacity for all primary school pupils produced
by a development of 360 new homes over time. East Lothian Council would,
however, need to put more rigorous pupil intake management in place.
6.3 Secondary Education capacity - Preston Lodge HS has sufficient capacity to
accommodate pupils from up to 1,000 new houses at Longniddry if it didn't take
any pupils from Blindwells or other out-of-catchment pupil placing requests. If East
Lothian Council wish to use Preston Lodge HS to assist in deliverability of Blindwells
Phase 1, then it would makes sense to have strict intake management at Preston
Lodge HS to cope with the pupils generated from both Blindwells Phase 1 and from
360 new homes at Longniddry South. Assuming that ELC agree that the school can
be expanded beyond current capacity, there could be sufficient spare capacity at
Preston Lodge for the initial first stage of Blindwells (1,600 units) and Longniddry
South
(1,029 + 256 + 58 pupils = 1,343) [1,029 is the 2028 roll projection figure for
Preston Lodge HS; 256 is the total number of secondary pupils from the Blindwells
1,600 units over the full 17 years period of development and 58 is the number of
secondary pupils arising from 360 Longniddry South units over time]. The 256 pupil
figure is over-counting as this represents the full pupil product from Blindwells
1,600 units from 2019 to 2035. OR (945 + 256 + 58 pupils = 1,259) [945 is the 2028
roll projection figure minus non district pupils; 256 is the total number of secondary
pupils from the Blindwells 1,600 units over the full 17 years period of development
and 58 is the number of secondary pupils arising from 360 Longniddry South units
over time]. The 256 pupil figure is over-counting as this represents the full pupil
product from Blindwells 1,600 units from 2019 to 2035. If a second stage of
Blindwells is supported then the delivery of an all new Blindwells Secondary School
would be required. The timing of that might well be conducive to the delivery of
key elements of Longniddry South without the need for such dramatic pupil intake
management. This will depend on what maximum capacity Preston Lodge HS
(Educationally & physically) would be acceptable to East Lothian Council beyond
1,050 pupils.
226.4 I do not believe Preston Lodge HS could cope with Blindwells initial stage,
Longniddry South AND Goshen Farm. I believe the Goshen secondary school
solution will need to lie in the Musselburgh GS area.
7.0 STRATEGIC OVERVIEW: 450 HOUSING UNITS AT LONGNIDDRY SOUTH
7.1 We would need to undertake a room by room assessment of Longniddry PS using
the current East Lothian Council standards policies and identify the use of each
space within the school building in the context of a school roll which may require
up to 13 classrooms.
7.2 Pre-school – we would need to establish that the existing nursery can function as a
30/30 nursery class. There could be sufficient space in the existing facility which
together with appropriate modern flexible furniture could ensure that this element
could cope well the pre-school pupils arising from up to 450 units over time. There
is currently spare capacity in the available cluster nursery space which provides
considerable flexibility for parental choice in this area, but some of that will be used
in due course by Blindwells in the short term. See Paragraph 4.9.
7.3 Primary school capacity - there would appear to be sufficient space on the existing
campus surrounding the existing building to enable the school to be expanded so as
to provide a 13th classroom and a 3rd GP space, which might need to be double
sized and useable as a “Dance and Movement Space”. Therefore, there should be
sufficient primary school capacity at Longniddry for a development of 450 new
houses. East Lothian Council would, however, need to put much more rigorous
pupil intake management in place.
7.4 Secondary Education capacity - Preston Lodge HS has sufficient capacity to
accommodate pupils from up to 1,000 new houses at Longniddry if it didn't take
any pupils from Blindwells or other out-of-catchment pupil placing requests. If East
Lothian Council wish to use Preston Lodge HS to assist in deliverability of Blindwells
Phase 1, then it would makes sense to have strict intake management at Preston
Lodge HS to cope with the new homes from Blindwells Phase 1 and from the 450
new homes at Longniddry South. There could be sufficient spare capacity at
Preston Lodge for the initial first stage of Blindwells (1,600 units) and Longniddry
South (1,029 + 256 + 72 pupils = 1,357) [1,029 is the 2028 roll projection figure for
Preston Lodge HS; 256 is the total number of secondary pupils from the Blindwells
total of 1,600 units over the full 17 year period of development and 72 is the
number of secondary pupils arising from 450 Longniddry South units over time]. OR
(945 + 256 + 72 pupils = 1,273) [945 is the 2028 roll projection figure minus non
district pupils; 256 is the total number of secondary pupils from the Blindwells
1,600 units over the full 17 years period of development and 72 is the number of
secondary pupils arising from 450 Longniddry South units over time].The 256 pupil
figure is over-counting as this represents the full pupil product from Blindwells
1,600 units from 2019 to 2035. This will depend on what maximum capacity
Preston Lodge HS (Educationally & physically) would be acceptable to East Lothian
Council beyond 1,050 pupils.
237.5 I do not believe Preston Lodge HS could cope with Blindwells initial stage,
Longniddry South AND Goshen Farm. I believe the Goshen secondary school
solution will lie in the Musselburgh GS area.
8.0 STRATEGIC OVERVIEW: 1,000 HOUSING UNITS AT LONGNIDDRY
SOUTH
8.1 Pre-school – there would need to be a 60/60 nursery class provided. The best way
of providing that would be at an all new facility. The best approach to “transition”
from nursery to P1 for nursery pupils would be to locate the two elements close
together in the primary school. That could be in a new Infant school at a new site or
using the existing Longniddry PS building as an Infant wing.
8.2 Primary school capacity ~ 199 + 336 = 535 primary pupils could either be provided
for in a new single campus primary school of approximately 20 classrooms or an
Infant/Primary split school solution using the existing building as either the Infant
element or Primary P4-P7 element facility and a new build School on a new site.
8.3 Secondary Education capacity –there might not be sufficient capacity at Preston
Lodge for the Blindwells initial phase (1,600 units) and 1,000 units at Longniddry
South whilst Blindwells is being directed to Preston Lodge for its secondary
capacity. 1,029 + 256 + 160 pupils = 1,445 [1,029 is the 2028 roll projection figure
for Preston Lodge HS; 256 is the total number of secondary pupils from the
Blindwells 1,600 units over the full 17 years period of development and 160 is the
number of secondary pupils arising from 1,000 Longniddry South units over
time].The 256 pupil figure is over-counting as this represents the full pupil product
from Blindwells 1,600 units from 2019 to 2035. OR (945 + 256 + 160 pupils =
1,361). [945 is the 2028 roll projection figure minus non district pupils; 256 is the
total number of secondary pupils from the Blindwells 1,600 units over the full 17
years period of development and 160 is the number of secondary pupils arising
from 1,000 Longniddry South units over time].The 256 pupil figure is over-counting
as this represents the full pupil product from Blindwells 1,600 units from 2019 to
2035.
8.4 However, it is assumed that if Blindwells does expand beyond the initial 1,600
units, then there will need to be a new secondary school for the new Blindwells
settlement, and it is also assumed that all children from the whole new settlement
will attend that new secondary school. Therefore, once the initial element of the
new secondary school at Blindwells is built, there will be significant new capacity at
Preston Lodge, which could usefully be filled by a larger expansion of approximately
1,000 units at Longniddry South.
8.5 Therefore, a larger expansion of Longniddry South could actually help to enable a
larger new settlement at Blindwells, although they might both be dependent on
each other as well: the capacity at Preston Lodge needed for 1,000 units at
Longniddry South would be freed up if a new secondary school was delivered at a
24larger new Blindwells, but a larger Longniddry South would enable a larger
Blindwells to grow as an integrated whole without suddenly damaging Preston
Lodge by removing its “critical mass” of pupils. A larger Longniddry South would
complement a larger new settlement at Blindwells.
9. CONCLUSIONS
9.1 We should look to expand current pre-school at Longniddry Nursery Class to 30/30
if that is required. There is sufficient capacity within the cluster for 360-450 new
houses at Longniddry South AND Blindwells initial phase. However, there would
need to be additional pre-school facilities delivered in order to accommodate a
larger new settlement at Blindwells and up to 1,000 new houses at Longniddry
South.
9.2 There is sufficient room in the existing Longniddry PS to accommodate any pupils
generated by up to 360 new houses at Longniddry South. We need to do more
detailed examination of the site and existing buildings, but the campus is big
enough and the sports facilities good enough for the existing school to be extended
to provide an extra (13th) classroom and a new double GP space (if that is required),
both of which might be needed to accommodate the pupils generated by up to 450
new houses at Longniddry South. If Longniddry South was allocated for up to 1,000
new houses, then the existing Longniddry PS would not have the capacity to
accommodate the new pupils generated by such a large development. Instead,
there would either need to be a new 20 classroom PS on a single campus, or there
could be a split Infant/Primary school solution, with the existing site being used as
the Infant facility (P1-P3) and a new building in Longniddry South being used as the
Primary facility (P4-P7). If the former option was considered to be the best way
forward, it could be possible to locate the new 20 classroom PS within the new
development south of the East Coast Main Line, or it might be possible to relocate
the current playing fields and football club (Community Pitches) to a new purpose-
built facility south of the East Coast Main Line and then extend the existing PS to
create a single campus 20 classroom school over the current site and the playing
fields. All these options need much more detailed analysis and testing, and they all
have different pros and cons, but it shows there are feasible solutions.
9.3 If East Lothian Council decide not to pursue the integrated educational solution for
Blindwells as envisaged in the current Local Plan, it is highly probable that Preston
Lodge HS will need to expand beyond the 1,099 stated capacity just to
accommodate the pupils generated by the initial 1,600 new houses at Blindwells;
therefore East Lothian Council need to find ways increase the school’s capacity.
Previously, it has been considered educationally practicable elsewhere in East
Lothian to expand a secondary school up to 1,350 (1,399) pupil capacity; however,
for many of the above scenarios (see sections 6, 7, and 8), a capacity of no more
than 1,250 (1,299) would be required. Should Preston Lodge’s capacity be so
increased, then it will have sufficient space to accommodate the secondary school
pupils from both the initial phase at Blindwells and up to 450 new houses at
Longniddry South. It should also be noted that if Blindwells does expand beyond
1,600 new houses and must then deliver a new secondary school of its own, there
25will then be significant spare capacity at Preston Lodge, which could threaten the
school’s “critical mass” unless it is filled, and so a larger expansion at Longniddry
South of up to 1,000 new houses (or more) could then be used to take up those
spare places there.
© Ian D. Fullerton
School Estate Planning
23rd January 2015
26Appendix 1 Page 1 School Roll Forecasting Process in East Lothian – undated ELC
27Appendix 1 Page 2 School Roll Forecasting Process in East Lothian – undated ELC
28Appendix 1 Page 3 School Roll Forecasting Process in East Lothian – undated ELC
29Appendix 1 Page 4 School Roll Forecasting Process in East Lothian – undated ELC
30Appendix 1 Page 5 School Roll Forecasting Process in East Lothian – undated ELC
31Appendix 2 – Plan from MIR showing Longniddry South ALT-P2
32Appendix 3 – Plan from MIR showing Blindwells extension boundaries
33Appendix 4 – “Revised catchment area arrangements for non-denominational pre-school,
primary and secondary education at Blindwells, Tranent”
34Appendix 5 – Existing Longniddry PS catchment area boundary
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