Manchester Monitor June 2013
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Manchester
Monitor
June 2013
Greater Manchester
office market largest
outside London
Jobseeker Numbers Fall Again
Office Take-up Highest Outside London
Hotel Occupancy on the Rise Again
House Prices Continue to Slide
Further Decline in Crime Volumes
www.neweconomymanchester.com
research@neweconomymanchester.comMonitor Focus
Greater Manchester office market largest outside London
In the latest assessment of the property market, DTZ The latest data from the Land Registry show that the average
expects annual take-up of office space in Manchester city house in GM cost £101,035 in April 2013, a decline of 3.5%
centre to be in the region of 850,000 sq. ft, making it the (-£3,640) from this time last year. House prices in GM have
largest commercial property market outside London. The now been declining on an annual basis since December
role played by business & professional services in Greater 2010, 29 consecutive months.
Manchester (GM) is key in this respect, and on a recent trip
Crime volumes are continuing to fall and there were around
to the conurbation, Sir Mervyn King stated that GM has an
183,000 reported crimes in GM in the 12 months to April
exciting future thanks to its successful nurturing of growth
2013 – an annual decline of 10.6%, or almost 22,000 fewer
sectors.
offences. Victim-based crime saw nearly 161,000 cases
The commercial property market has also seen a £250 recorded over the same period, representing a year-on-year
million warehouse scheme revealed for the Cutacre strategic fall of 9.5% (-16,940). The latest crime figures also show that
site, which spans Bolton, Wigan and Salford. A planning for the 12 months ending April 2013, GM Police successfully
application for the scheme, branded as Logistics North, is solved 30% of all crimes, albeit slightly down (0.9
due to be submitted in the coming weeks. It will provide a percentage points) compared to the previous 12 months.
range of warehouse units up to 1 million sq. ft, and will also
The visitor economy continues to perform well, and the latest
be targeted towards manufacturers and office users. Initial
hotel data show that occupancy levels in both the city centre
estimates by New Economy suggest that once complete
and GM as a whole in April 2013 were 75% – increases of 3
and fully let, Cutacre as a whole has the potential to create
and 4 percentage points respectively. In addition,
in excess of 5,000 net new jobs in GM.
Manchester Airport is continuing to see year-on-year growth
Positively, unemployment has declined and the latest figures in passenger numbers – outpacing that seen at any other
show that 84,000 people were claiming Jobseeker’s major UK airport. It handled 1.45 million passengers in
Allowance (JSA) in GM in April 2013 – a decrease of just over March 2013, an annual increase of 6.0% (81,800 additional
1,500 (-1.8%) compared with the figure for March 2013 of passengers). The Airport recently welcomed its 20 millionth
85,500. Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16–24) passenger of the year, the first time it has achieved this in
in GM also declined on a monthly basis, falling by four years.
approximately 1,000 to around 22,300 between March and
April. Despite long-term claimants (6 months +) rising slightly
to 38,500 (+600) over the same period, a lot of the underlying
data this month paint a more positive picture of the current
economic climate. While the economy still clearly faces a
number of challenges, the most recent quarterly inflation
report by the Bank of England upgraded forecasts for the
second quarter of 2013, with the UK economy now
expected to grow by 0.5%. Total growth over the year is
forecast to be around 1.2%, up from the 1% estimate made
in February.
1 | Manchester Monitor – June 2013Monitor Statistics
Indicator This Period Last Period Last Year Period Annual
Change Change
Business Monitor
Office take-up in Manchester 245,369 sq. ft 297,311 sq. ft 169,891 sq. ft -17.5% 44.4%
Office supply in Manchester 2.7m sq. ft 2.9m sq. ft 3.2m sq. ft -6.3% -14.3%
Prime office rents in Manchester £30/sq. ft £30/sq. ft £30/sq. ft
JSA Claimants 83,960 85,466 85,810 -1.8% -2.2%
Male 56,351 57,584 59,538 -2.1% -5.4%
People Monitor
Female 27,609 27,882 26,272 -1.0% 5.1%
Youth Claimants (Aged 16-24) 22,260 23,220 26,170 -4.1% -14.9%
Long-Term Claimants (6 Months+) 38,525 37,910 38,395 1.6% 0.3%
Housing Monitor
Average House Price £101,035 £101,759 £104,675 -0.7% -3.5%
Number Of Sales 1,742 1,616 1,788 7.8% -2.6%
Manchester Airport Passengers 1,453,168 1,196,257 1,371,359 21.5% 6.0%
Place Monitor
Flights 11,906 10,439 12,407 14.1% -3.4%
Hotel Occupancy (city centre) 75.4% 76.5% 72.9% -1.1% pts 2.5% pts
Hotel Occupancy (GM) 74.7% 75.2% 70.6% -0.5% pts 4.1% pts
Total Crime Volume 182,636 - 204,361 - -10.6%
Victim-Based Crime Volume 161,001 - 177,941 - -9.5%
Crime Monitor
Total Crime Solved Rate 30.1% - 31.0% - -0.9% pts
Victim-Based Crime Solved Rate 24.3% - 24.4% - -0.1% pt
Total Deliberate Fires 8,594 - 9,443 - -9.0%
Positive change Negative change No change
IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter
is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written
permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.
Manchester Monitor – June 2013 | 2People Monitor
Jobseekers continue to decline
The latest figures show that 84,000 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM in April 2013 – a decrease of
just over 1,500 (-1.8%) when compared with the figure for March 2013 of 85,500. The North West (-2.6%) and Great Britain
(-2.9%) also saw monthly declines. As a proportion of the resident working age population, 4.8% of people in GM were
claiming JSA in April, which remains above the North West (4.2%) and Great Britain (3.7%) rates.
The number of male JSA claimants fell on a monthly basis Despite the ILO’s pessimism, much of the recent underlying
by 2.1% (1,233) to 56,400, while the number of female data at a UK level is beginning to give some credence to the
claimants also fell by 1.0% (273). There was a year-on-year possibility that the economy has turned a corner. The most
fall in male JSA claimants in GM of around 3,200 (5.4%), recent quarterly inflation report by the Bank of England
though the number of female claimants remains 5.1% upgraded forecasts for the second quarter of 2013, with the
(1,300) higher than this time last year. UK economy now expected to grow by 0.5%. Total growth
over the year is forecast to be around 1.2%, up from the 1%
Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16–24) in GM
estimate made in February, though OECD forecasts remain
declined on a monthly basis between March and April, falling
more cautious.
by approximately 1,000 to around 22,300. Year-on-year, the
number of youth JSA claimants is now 14.9% (3,900) less For GM, it will be more important than ever to capitalise on
than this time last year. areas that have grown or have potential to grow, such as the
media and professional services sectors, a point highlighted
The number of long-term claimants (those claiming JSA for
by the outgoing governor of the Bank of England, Sir Mervyn
6 months or longer) in GM continued to rise in April 2013 to
King, on a recent trip to the area. Initiatives such as the newly
38,500, a monthly increase of 600 (1.6%). On an annual
announced Manchester University Recruitment Service for
basis the number of long-term claimants remains marginally
Business, which links graduates with local employers, will
higher (0.3% or 130 claimants) than this time last year. By
also be important in ensuring that new employment
contrast, however, the North West (-2.1%) and Great Britain
opportunities continue to be created in the conurbation.
(-3.2%) have seen annual declines in long-term claimants.
Looking ahead, all of the indicators, including recent analysis Total Jobseeker’s Allowance
on youth unemployment by the International Labour Claimants in April 2013
Organisation (ILO), point to the employment market
continuing to be extremely challenging over the coming
months. The ILO has warned that the global youth
83,960
Decreased by 2.2% year-on-year
unemployment rate continues to rise and is projected to
reach 12.8% by 2018 – effectively wiping out any gains
Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change
made at the start of the economic recovery.
h5.1% $5.4% $14.9% h0.3%
Women Men Youth Long-term
3 | Manchester Monitor – June 2013Business Monitor
Office Take-Up and Availability in Manchester (sq. ft)
4,000,000 800,000
Availability Take-Up
3,500,000 700,000
3,000,000 600,000
Availability (sq. ft)
2,500,000 500,000
Take Up (sq. ft)
2,000,000 400,000
1,500,000 300,000
1,000,000 200,000
500,000 100,000
0 0
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
12
12
12
12
13
1-
2-
3-
4-
1-
2-
3-
4-
1-
2-
3-
4-
1-
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
Office take-up highest outside capital Q
In its latest assessment of the property market, DTZ highlights that office take-up in Manchester city centre fell in the first quarter
of 2013, while headline prime rents remained unchanged. The new data analysis also serves to emphasise the fact that
Manchester remains the largest office market outside London in terms of take-up, which is expected to be in the region of
850,000 sq. ft in 2013 – up from 790,000 sq. ft in 2012.
Overall take-up in the city centre fell slightly in Q1 2013 after Thereafter availability is forecast to fall, with sharper falls in
a strong finish to the year in Q4 2012 – falling from 297,000 grade A availability this year. The current prime rent for office
sq. ft to 245,000 sq. ft. More positively however, Q1 2013 space in Manchester is £30 per sq. ft, having remained
take-up was higher than the corresponding figures for the unchanged since Q4 2011.
first quarters of 2010 (185,000 sq. ft), 2011 (135,000 sq. ft)
A £250 million warehouse scheme has recently been
and 2012 (170,000 sq. ft).
revealed for the Cutacre site, which spans Bolton, Wigan
Availability fell in Q1 2013 to 2.7 million sq. ft. At the same time and Salford. A planning application for the scheme, branded
in 2012 the amount of office space available in Manchester as Logistics North, is due to be submitted in the coming
stood at 3.2 million sq. ft. The office market remains polarised weeks. It will provide a range of warehouse units up to 1
according to DTZ, with 3.6 years of grade B supply at current million sq. ft, and will also be targeted towards
take-up rates, but only 1.5 years of grade A. manufacturers and office users.
City centre availability is forecast to peak in 2013 when the
Co-op markets a number of former sites following its move
to One Angel Square, which is part of the wider £800 million
NOMA scheme.
Manchester Monitor – June 2013 | 4Place Monitor
Hotel occupancy on the rise again
Hotel data show that occupancy levels in the city centre and GM in April 2013 both increased on an annual basis. Adding
to the good news, Manchester Airport is still continuing to see year-on-year growth in passenger numbers – outpacing that
seen at any other major UK airport.
Hotel Occupancy Airport Passenger Numbers
Hotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre were Manchester Airport handled 1.45 million passengers in
recorded at 75% in April 2013, a rise of 3 percentage points March 2013, compared to 1.37 million 12 months previously,
on the same month last year. Weekend occupancy in the an increase of 6.0% (81,800 additional passengers). The role
city centre averaged 84% during the month, down slightly played by the 14 new destinations, including Washington DC
on the April 2012 figure of 85%. The weekday average and Moscow, that were added to the route network during
occupancy in the city centre was 73% – the first time it had that time is likely to have been one of the main contributing
surpassed 70% in the month of April since 2008. factors behind the rise.
For GM as a whole, average occupancy rates in April were The upward trend at Manchester is stronger than the London
the same as the city centre at 75%, a rise of 4 percentage airports, with Heathrow, Stansted (which was recently
points compared to the previous twelve months. acquired by Manchester Airport Group) and Gatwick seeing
passenger numbers grow by 3.9%, 3.8%, and 2.5%
Key dates for hotel occupancy in the city centre during April
respectively between March 2012 and 2013. By contrast,
were:
Birmingham Airport actually saw annual passenger numbers
• 8 April – occupancy of 98% was achieved for the fall by 0.9% over the same period.
Manchester derby in the Premier League.
With new routes to Russia, Egypt and Greece scheduled to
• 22 April – 98% occupancy was also recorded when be added during the summer, all signs suggest that growth
Manchester United played Aston Villa in the Premier is set to continue at Manchester Airport. Passenger numbers
League and Michael Ball performed at the Bridgewater in the first quarter of 2013 were 136,000 higher than the
Hall. same period in 2012, and the Airport recently welcomed its
20 millionth passenger of the year - the first time it has
• 27 April – 93% occupancy, coinciding with Manchester achieved this in four years.
City and Wigan Athletic both having home league games,
as well as X Factor auditions at Old Trafford.
Airport passenger numbers (+6.0%) Hotel occupancy (city centre) (+3.0%points)
1,453,168 75%
Flights (-3.4%) Hotel occupancy (GM) (+4.0%points)
11,906 75%
% represents year-on-year change
IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter
is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written
permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited
5 | Manchester Monitor – June 2013Housing Monitor
Year-on-year change in house prices
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15% Greater Manchester London England & Wales
-20%
9
0
1
2
3
09
09
10
10
11
11
12
12
r0
r1
r1
r1
r1
g
g
g
g
c
c
c
c
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
De
De
De
De
Au
Au
Au
Au
GM house prices continue to slide
The latest data from the Land Registry show that the average house in GM cost £101,035 in April 2013, a decline of 3.5%
(-£3,640) from this time last year. England & Wales saw a small annual rise in house prices, while London continues to see the
strongest annual growth.
House Prices Mortgage and Landlord Possessions
Property prices in England & Wales grew marginally between Ministry of Justice (MoJ) data show that there were 945
April 2012 and 2013 – rising by 0.7% (£1,085), and now mortgage possession claims in GM in Q1 2013. This was
stand at £161,458. While this is still well below the national 11.3% less than the 1,065 claims issued in the same quarter
peak average of £182,000 in February 2008, prices in in 2012. At a national level there has also been a fall in the
England & Wales have now increased year-on-year for 12 number of claims since 2008, which the MoJ notes has
consecutive months. In contrast, prices in GM have been coincided with lower interest rates and a more proactive
declining on an annual basis since December 2010 – 29 approach from lenders in managing consumers in financial
consecutive months. difficulties.
London is still setting the pace in terms of house price rises, In Q1 2013, 770 mortgage possession claims led to orders
reaching nearly £376,000 in April 2013 – an annual increase in GM. This was down by 20.6% (-200) on Q1 2012 and
of 6.2% (+£22,081). The last time it saw prices fall on a yearly similar to the declines seen at regional (-21.4%) and national
basis was in September 2009. (-20.2%) levels.
Land Registry house sales data reveal that there were just In GM there were 2,460 landlord possession claims against
under 1,750 properties sold in February 2013, virtually in line tenants (for rent arrears, for example) against tenants in Q1
with 12 months previously, reflecting the continued 2013, up by 4.5% (105) annually, while 1,818 landlord claims
stagnation of the market. led to orders for possession in the conurbation in Q1 2013
– a yearly rise of 18.1% (+278).
Manchester Monitor – June 2013 | 6Crime Monitor
Crime Volumes in Greater Manchester
Total Crimes
Year to April 2012 177,941 26,420
204,361
Total Crimes
Year to April 2013 161,001 21,635
182,636
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Victim based crime Non-victim based crime, fraud & forgery
Crime volumes continue to decline
Data released by GM Police (GMP) for the year ending April 2013 show that the number of reported crimes is continuing to fall,
declining by almost 11% over the last 12 months. The new data also reveal that 30% of all crimes were solved in GM over the
past year, albeit nearly 1 percentage point lower than April 2012.
Crime Volumes In terms of victim-based crime (violence, sexual offences,
Figures for the year ending April 2013 show that there were criminal damage & arson and stealing), 24.3% of cases were
around 183,000 reported crimes in GM – an annual decline solved over the 12 months to April 2013, a marginal year-
of 10.6%, almost 22,000 fewer offences. on-year fall of 0.1 percentage points.
Victim-based crime saw nearly 161,000 cases recorded over GM Fire & Rescue Service Data
the same period, representing a year-on-year fall of 9.5% Deliberate fires in GM were recorded at 8,594 for the 12
(-16,940). Criminal damage and arson saw the biggest year- months to April 2013, compared to a figure of 9,443 for the
on-year fall of all victim-based crimes, with 29,000 offences previous year, an annual decline of 9% (849).
for the 12 months to April 2013, down by 15.9% (-5,224) on
Primary fires, those where owned property is involved, were
the 2012 figure.
recorded at 1,684 for the year ending April 2013, a year-on-
Crimes Solved year fall of 24.2% (-539).
GMP successfully solved 30% of all crimes for the year
ending April 2013 – a slight decline of 0.9 percentage points
compared to the previous 12 months.
7 | Manchester Monitor – June 2013You can also read
