Marco Polo D7.3 Plan for exploitation of the project results

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Marco Polo D7.3 Plan for exploitation of the project results
Ref.: ISARD_7FP_MPOLO_BP_307
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                           Marco Polo

D7.3 Plan for exploitation of
         the project results
                        – Business Plan –

                         Reference: ISARD_FP7_MPOLO_BP_307
                                                   Issue: 1.0

                        Prepared by: Maite Muñoz, Bernat Martinez

                   Approved by: Bernat Martinez, Ronald van der A

                                                Date: 29 March 2017
            Activity: Marco Polo project. FP7 Programme. Id:606953
Marco Polo D7.3 Plan for exploitation of the project results
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                                                   Change Record
        Date            Issue      Section         Page                              Comment

   29 March 2017         1.0          all           all        Initial Issue

                                            Control Document
              Process                               Name                                        Date

Written by:                     Bernat Martínez, Maite Muñoz                         27 March 2017

Checked by:                     Laia Romero                                          28 March 2017

Approved by:                    Ronald van der A                                     29 March 2017

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Table of Contents
1   AIR QUALITY SYSTEMS IN CHINA ............................................................................................................... 7
    1.1INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................................... 7
    1.2LEGAL FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................................................... 10
    1.3MONITORING AND FORECASTING AQ INFORMATION ....................................................................................... 10

2   MARCO POLO PROJECT RESULTS .......................................................................................................... 15
    2.1EMISSIONS INVENTORY................................................................................................................................. 15
    2.2ENSEMBLE AIR QUALITY FORECAST SERVICE ................................................................................................ 18

3   THE MARKET ............................................................................................................................................... 21
    3.1STAKEHOLDERS INTERVIEWS ........................................................................................................................ 21
    3.2MARKET REPORTS ....................................................................................................................................... 22
    3.3ENVIRONMENTAL/INDUSTRY ANALYSIS ........................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED.

4   CUSTOMERS ................................................................................................................................................ 25

5   SWOT ANALYSIS ......................................................................................................................................... 28

6   COMPETITORS ............................................................................................................................................ 29

7   THE EXPLOITATION PLAN ......................................................................................................................... 30

8   BUSINESS PLAN .......................................................................................................................................... 31

9   ANNEXES ..................................................................................................................................................... 34
    ANNEX A: LIST OF EMCS WEBSITES ................................................................................................................... 34
    ANNEX B: EXAMPLES OF EMCS WEBSITES ......................................................................................................... 37

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List of Tables
Table 1.1: Environmental depletion and degradation (% of GNI). Source: World Bank. ......................................... 7

Table 1.2: Air Pollution Action Plan (Source: MEP, Goldman Sachs) ................................................................... 10

Table 1.3: Chinese Air Quality Index and their classes associated (Source: AirInform) ....................................... 12

Table 1.4: Chinese Air Quality Index and health implications (Source: MEP) ....................................................... 13

Table 2.1: Product description ............................................................................................................................... 16

Table 2.2: Product description ............................................................................................................................... 19

Table 3.1: Marco Polo Stakeholders visits ............................................................................................................ 21

Table 5.1: S.W.O.T Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 28

Table 6.1: Competitors .......................................................................................................................................... 29

Table 7.1: Exploitation Plan actions ...................................................................................................................... 30

Table 8.1: Three year business plan. Costs are in Keuro ..................................................................................... 33

Table 9.1: Catalogue of environmental monitoring regional centres ..................................................................... 36

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List of Figures
Figure 1.1: China Top Concerns (Source: Pew Research Center). ........................................................................ 8

Figure 1.2: Real-time Air Quality Index based on on-ground monitoring stations. China. (Source: AQICN, 17 May
2016 16:00h) ........................................................................................................................................................... 9

Figure 1.3: Real-time Air Quality Index based on on-ground monitoring stations. Beijing city. (Source: AQICN, 17
May 2016 16:00h).................................................................................................................................................... 9

Figure 1.4: Sample of Air Quality Index Apps search in Google Play market. (Source: Google Play, 17 October
2016 12:00h) ......................................................................................................................................................... 11

Figure 1.5: Examples of Air Quality Index Apps for China. (Sources: AQICN App, Fresh Ideas Apps and
CastStudio Apps)................................................................................................................................................... 11

Figure 1.6: Distribution of the 6 main pollutants according to their classes. 2015. China (Source: CNEMC) ....... 12

Figure 1.7: CNMEC Regional Forecast Operating System (Source: CNEMC) ..................................................... 14

Figure 2.1: Comparison of Marco Polo and MIX-MEIC emission inventories........................................................ 17

Figure 2.2: Sector split of the yearly total emissions contained in the low resolution MarcoPolo emission
inventory. ............................................................................................................................................................... 17

Figure 2.3: (Left) Forecasted time series for Shanghai. The red line shows the average concentration of this air
pollutant taken from the available stations for this city. The values are taken from www.pm25.in. The grey line
shows the median of the models of the simulated air quality. The grey shaded area indicates the range of the
model predictions. (Right) Gridded 24h-average ensemble forecast for the Shanghai area................................. 20

Figure 3.1: Market geographical distribution of the Air quality control systems (Source: MarketandMarket). ....... 22

Figure 9.1: Air Quality report from Gansu EMC (Source: http://www.gsemc.cn/Web/ReportMain.asp . Consulted
21/11/2016 16:35) ................................................................................................................................................. 37

Figure 9.2: Air Quality map report from Gansu EMC (Source: http://61.178.81.9:8080/gs/prompt.jsp . Consulted
21/11/2016 16:37) ................................................................................................................................................. 38

Figure 9.3: Air Quality report from Fujian EPB (Source: http://fbpt.fjemc.org.cn/. Consulted 21/11/2016 16:50) 38

Figure 9.4: Air Quality report from Shandong EPB (Source: http://www.sdein.gov.cn/zwgk/sqcspm/ . Consulted
21/11/2016 17:10) ................................................................................................................................................. 39

Figure 9.5: Air Quality report from Jilin EMC (Source: http://hbj.jl.gov.cn/ . Consulted 21/11/2016 17:15).......... 40

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1                Air Quality Systems in China

1.1            Introduction
               The management of air quality episodes in China is becoming an important challenge for
               Chinese authorities due to its large economical and societal impact. In 2012, a report from
               the World Bank1 estimated the environmental depletion and degradation in China in 2009
               as 9% of the Gross Net Income (Table 1.1). Air quality pollution is one of the main sources
               of these damages due to the health, material and CO2 damages that accounted for 4.4% of
               the GNI in 2009. This report also showed the trend for 2030 where these environmental
               damages were expected to be reduced to 2.7% of the GNI.

                                      Source                           2009             2030 forecast
              Energy depletion                                          2.9                  1.9
              Mineral depletion                                         0.2                  0.2
              PM10 health damages                                       2.8                  0.1
              Air Pollution material damage                             0.5                  0.1
              Water pollution material damage                           0.5                  0.1
              Soil nutrient depletion                                   1.0                  0.1
              Carbon dioxide damage                                     1.1                  0.2
              TOTAL                                                     9.0                  2.7

                    Table 1.1: Environmental depletion and degradation (% of GNI). Source: World Bank.

               Pew Research Center survey2 showed that air quality pollution was the second top concern
               in China after officials corruption (Figure 1.1).

1
 World Bank & Research Centre for Development (PRC). “China 2030. Building a Modern, Harmonious, and
Creative High-Income Society”. The World Bank.
2
    http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/09/24/corruption-pollution-inequality-are-top-concerns-in-china/

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                            Figure 1.1: China Top Concerns (Source: Pew Research Center).

              Since last decade, Chinese Government is aware of this big challenge therefore it has
              implemented several new policies to cope with the air quality pollution reduction. In the 12th
              Five Year Plan (2011-2015)3, Chinese Government set up the following objectives to
              reduce air pollutants in China:

                 •   Increase of non-fossil fuel usage in primary energy consumption: 11.4 %

                 •   Decrease in energy consumption per unit of GDP: 16%

                 •   Decrease in CO2 emissions per unit of GDP: 17%

                 •   Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD): 8%

                 •   Sulphur Dioxide (SO2): 8%

                 •   Ammonia Nitrogen: 10%

                 •   Nitrous Oxides (NO2): 10 %

              In order to accomplish these objectives, 12th Five Year Plan estimated that RMB3.4 trillion
              were about to be invested in pollution control and treatment between 2011 and 2015. In
              2013, when Marco Polo project started, the investment in pollution control and treatment
              reached RMB951.7 which was 15% more than 2012 and 1.67% of the annual GDP4.

3
 http://www.cbichina.org.cn/cbichina/upload/fckeditor/Full%20Translation%20of%20the%2012th%20Five-
Year%20Plan.pdf
4
    HKTD Research. 2015. “China’s Environmental Market”. HKTD Research.

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              One consequence of this new political paradigm was the expansion and development of
              the national and regional systems which monitor and forecast air quality in China. The
              Ministry of Environment Protection (MEP), through the China National Environment
              Monitoring Centre (CNEMC)5, established new regulations and objectives to be
              accomplished by existing and new provincial and municipal Environmental Protection
              Bureaus (EPB) and Environmental Monitoring Centres (EMC). The development of these
              new monitoring networks expanded the number of monitoring sites providing a large
              amount of new local data (see Figure 1.2 and Figure 1.3).

                Figure 1.2: Real-time Air Quality Index based on on-ground monitoring stations. China. (Source:
                                                  AQICN, 17 May 2016 16:00h)

                  Figure 1.3: Real-time Air Quality Index based on on-ground monitoring stations. Beijing city.
                                             (Source: AQICN, 17 May 2016 16:00h)

5
    http://www.cnemc.cn/

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1.2   Legal Framework
      In September 2013, a new legal and regulatory framework was established through the Air
      Pollution Action Plan. This plan included 10 actions (see Table 1.2) and action number 9
      was “establish a monitoring and early warning system to tackle highly polluted weather”.

                     Table 1.2: Air Pollution Action Plan (Source: MEP, Goldman Sachs)

      In January 2015, a new Environment Protection Law introduced new targets and rules
      such as total emission control system, penalties, legal liabilities, incentives for emissions
      reductions and promotion of information disclosure to the public.

      This new regulatory and legal framework impacted Marco Polo project position because Air
      quality data became publicly available and new monitoring and forecasting systems were
      developed in parallel to the Marco Polo project.

1.3   Monitoring and Forecasting Systems
      During 2014-2016, each Environmental Monitoring Centre (EMC) implemented and
      maintained new monitoring and forecasting systems at local and provincial level. The data
      collected and processed were subsequently published and distributed through their own
      websites and apps. Annex A lists all provincial EMCs websites including the links to the
      websites which are providing air quality data to the public nowadays. An example of the
      information provided by these websites is shown in Annex B.

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In addition to these official websites, new channels for air quality communication were
open through the rapid development of new mobile apps (Figure 1.4 and Figure 1.5).
Citizens use these new apps to receive information about the air quality status in almost
near-real time. Most of the sources of these apps are the official data published by EMCs
so they are just merging and improving the communication channel with mobile phone
users. Some of these Apps also provide health assessments and warnings to populations
based on the standards published by both Chinese health authorities and international
organisations (e.g. World Health Organisation).

Figure 1.4: Sample of Air Quality Index Apps search in Google Play market. (Source: Google Play,
                                     17 October 2016 12:00h)

Figure 1.5: Examples of Air Quality Index Apps for China. (Sources: AQICN App, Fresh Ideas Apps
                                       and CastStudio Apps)

The Chinese National Monitoring Environmental Centre (CNMEC) of the Ministry of
Environmental Protection (MEP) also collects the information published and collected at
provincial level and national level. CNMEC publishes monthly, quarterly and yearly reports
showing the evolution of the main pollutants at National level per classes (Figure 1.6).

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  Figure 1.6: Distribution of the 6 main pollutants according to their classes. 2015. China (Source:
                                                CNEMC)

CNMEC also produces an official Air Quality Index combining different levels of individual
pollutants into different classes (Table 1.3). These AQI are also classified according to their
health impact (Table 1.4).

           Classes           SO2     NO2       PM10     CO        O3       PM2.5
         1        50         0.050   0.04      0.050    2.0       0.100    0.035
         2       100         0.150   0.08      0.150    4.0       0.160    0.075
         3       150         0.475   0.180     0.250    14.0      0.215    0.115
         4       200         0.800   0.280     0.350    24.0      0.265    0.150
        5/6      300         1.600   0.565     0.420    36.0      0.800    0.250
         7       400         2.100   0.75      0.500    48.0      1.000    0.350
                 500         2.620   0.940     0.600    60.0      1.200    0.500

       Table 1.3: Chinese Air Quality Index and their classes associated (Source: AirInform)

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           Table 1.4: Chinese Air Quality Index and health implications (Source: MEP)

Following Air Quality Action Plan, the “National Center for Environmental Quality
Forecasting”, was established at CNEMC in the summer of 2013. This center was
organized at four levels: national, regional, provincial and city level. Its mission was to
provide air quality forecasts for all these levels within existing seven regions, thirty-one
provinces and major cities. This centre reused four existing forecasting models developed
by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics from the Chinese Academy of Sciences: NAQPMS,
CMAQ, CAMx and WRf-Chem. This system became operational in 2015. Some of the
outputs of this system are shown in Figure 1.7.

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Figure 1.7: CNMEC Regional Forecast Operating System (Source: CNEMC)

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2     Marco Polo Project results
      MarcoPolo project activities are organised on seven work packages delivering 34
      deliverables. Among these deliverables, we identified two information services that could
      be commercially exploited after H2020 project funding period:

         •   Emission bottom-up estimates based on satellite data sets.

         •   Operational models providing validated forecast results on regional, urban and city
             scales.

      The ensemble of these products information is used to better monitor and predicts any air
      quality event in China. The following sub-sections describe in detail the characteristics of
      these two services.

2.1   Emissions Inventory
      For good air quality modelling and forecasting, a recent and reliable emission inventory is
      essential. Marco Polo project developed new emission inventories for China by combining
      observations from satellites with information from the MEIC (Multi-resolution Emissions
      Inventory for China) bottom-up inventory. Satellites observations have been used to derive
      emissions for China on 0.25 degree resolution (around 25km spatial resolution). These
      satellite-derived emissions have been combined with existing sector-split and statistical
      information from the ground. The continuous stream of satellite observations enables us to
      update the emission inventory on an annual basis.

       Product Type    Emission inventory.
                       Air pollutants included: aerosols, NO2, VOC, SO2, HCHO, CO, NH3, divided by
                       six source sectors: industry, power, residential, transportation, shipping and
                       agriculture.

       Spatial         0.25 degrees for most major Chinese cities, the Korean peninsula and parts of
       Resolution      Mongolia

                       For selected regions the inventory is downscaled to a 0.01 degree resolution:
                           • Yangtze River delta: covering an area of 4x3 degrees (including
                               Nanjing).
                           • Beijing – Tianjin region covering 2 x 2 degree.
                           • Pearl River Delta region covering 2 x 2 degree.

       Temporal        Data for the years 2014 and 2010 (following years available on-request)
       Range

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Temporal            Monthly
Resolution

Update              Annual
frequency

Accuracy            The emission data has been compared with existing bottom-up emission
                    inventory. It has been tested with model simulations. Results of validation can be
                    obtained on-demand.

Spatial             East-China (between 102 and 132 eastern longitude, and between 18 and 50
Coverage            northern latitude)

Format        and   netCDF ; approximately 25 Mb
Size

Software            No Open Source Code for this product.
Source Code

Variables           Aerosols, NO2, VOC, SO2, HCHO, CO ,NH3 per source sector
Impacted

Service             The emission inventory is a joint effort of the Flemish Institute for Technological
provider(s)         Research (VITO), Tsinghua University, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological
                    Institute (KNMI), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Belgian Institute for
                    Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB), and Aristotle University of Thessaloniki (AUTh)

Remarks             Emissions for years after 2014 are available on-request.

                    The emission inventory cannot be fully automated in production.

                    The emission data has been compared with existing bottom-up emission
                    inventory. It has been tested with model simulations.

                                    Table 2.1: Product description

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         Figure 2.1: Comparison of Marco Polo and MIX-MEIC emission inventories

Figure 2.2: Sector split of the yearly total emissions contained in the low resolution MarcoPolo
                                        emission inventory.

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                Figure 2.3: High Resolution Marco Polo inventory for SO2 within Beijing region.

      The added value of the Emission inventory service is:

         •   High resolution emission data for specific regions. For three regions a high
             resolution inventory on 1x1 km is available: Beijing area, Yangtze area, Pearl River
             Delta. Other areas can be provided on demand.
         •   Timely updates of actual years. Initially the emission inventory is made for 2014. In
             the future, emission inventories of the most recent year can be delivered.

      The constraint of this service is:

         •   Does not cover CO pollutant

2.2   Ensemble Air Quality Forecast Service
      The MarcoPolo project partners and associated institutes have strong modelling
      experience in generating operational air quality forecasts for Europe and China. They use
      a wide range of chemical transport models and input data. The best forecast, however, is
      delivered by combining the individual forecasts to a model ensemble, which compensates
      for possible individual model flaws. The forecast information is delivered for today and two
      days in advance, and is updated whenever new model information becomes available.

                        Ensemble Air Quality forecast for East China (today and two days ahead), and
       Product Type     forecast of individual ensemble models.
                        Air pollutants included: PM2.5, PM10, NO2, O3, in units [ug/m3].

                        0.25 degrees (25Km approx.)
       Spatial          The forecasted values therefore represent local (e.g. urban) background values.
       Resolution       They do not contain information on neighbourhood scale or smaller.

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                    The time series span 4x24 hours, starting at 00:00 local Chinese time,
Temporal            containing yesterday’s analysis, today’s, and following 48h forecast.
Range

                    1 hour
Temporal
Resolution

                    Daily (or every time when new model data is processed)
Update
frequency

                    The forecasted values of the air pollutants are accompanied with an uncertainty
Accuracy            range. Accuracy values can be obtained on-demand.

                    The time series are based on an ensemble of air quality forecast models of the
Spatial             MarcoPolo-Panda consortium. Note that not all models cover the same spatial
Coverage            domain, although all of them cover East China. As a consequence, the forecast
                    of peripheral cities in China might be based on less air quality models.

                    Format: JSON or ASCII (for location time series), or netCDF (for gridded data)
Format        and   Size: around 10 kB per location time series;
Size                around 50MB for gridded (area) forecasts.

                    No Open Source Code for this product.
Software
Source Code

                    NO2, PM10, PM2.5 and O3
Variables
Impacted

                    The forecast service is hosted by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute
Service             (KNMI), and contains currently contributions of KNMI, European Centre for
provider(s)         Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Shanghai Center for Urban
                    Environmental Meteorology (SCUEM), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI),
                    Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Norwegian Meteorological
                    Institute (MET.NO), Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research
                    (TNO).

                    The time series will not be delivered with ground truth data, as the MarcoPolo-
Remarks             Panda consortium does not own these data.
                    A fair use policy applies to the delivery of the forecast data. Too frequent
                    petitions for data will result in temporary restriction of access.

                                    Table 2.2: Product description

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Figure 2.4: (Left) Forecasted time series for Shanghai. The red line shows the average
concentration of this air pollutant taken from the available stations for this city. The values are taken
from www.pm25.in. The grey line shows the median of the models of the simulated air quality. The
grey shaded area indicates the range of the model predictions. (Right) Gridded 24h-average
ensemble forecast for the Shanghai area.

The added value of this service is:

    •   Time series of city forecast. Time series of air pollutants for a predefined Chinese
        city. Data is accessed through a specific URL, including a client token.
    •   Time series of user-specified location. Time series of air pollutants for arbitrary
        locations. Locations cover China, Taiwan, North and South Korea. Note that the
        forecast quality in West China might be different, due to less coverage by the air
        quality models of the ensemble. Data is accessed through a specific URL, including
        a client token.
    •   Time series of a gridded field over East China. Time series of gridded concentration
        fields of air pollutants. Spatial resolution: 0.1 degree. The gridded fields cover
        China, Taiwan, North and South Korea. Note that the forecast quality in West China
        might be different, due to less coverage by the air quality models of the ensemble.
        Note also that the resolution of the grid not necessarily represents the spatial
        resolution of the forecasts. Data is accessed according to the client’s wishes (e.g.
        password-protected FTP).

The constraint of this service is:

    •   Does not cover SO2 and CO pollutant

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3     The Market

3.1   Stakeholders interviews
      Our initial market research has been based on dedicated visits and interviews to some key
      stakeholders in China (Table 3.1).

      Organisation                                      Responsible          Date
      China National Environment Monitoring             Wang Wei             Jan 2017
      Center
      Satellite Environment Monitoring Center           Mao Huiqin           Jan 2017
      Institute for Public Environment                  Shen Sunan           July 2015
      China Academy for Environmental Planning          Lei Yu               Jan 2017
      Institute for Remote Sensing and Digital Earth    Chen Liangfu         Jan 2017
      National Satellite Meteorological Center          Zhang Xingying       July 2015
      Air Matters                                       Wang Jun             July 2015
      China Clean Air Alliance                          Xie Tonny            Feb 2017
      IBM Global                                        Clement Dai          July 2015
      Institute of Atmospheric Physics                  Tang Xiao            Feb 2017
      China Unicom Environmental Information            Zhu Shuai            Feb 2017
      Operation Center

                                Table 3.1: Marco Polo Stakeholders visits

      The conclusion from these visits are:

         •   There is a strong demand for updated emissions inventory based on satellite data.
             These data are not available through Chinese official sources yet. Price quotations
             were required to Marco Polo project.
         •   There is a strong demand for improved forecasting systems at provincial and city
             level but Marco Polo models performances and uncertainties shall be assessed and
             compared against existing local models. Validation reports were required.
         •   Government guidelines strongly recommend collaborating with Chinese institutions
             and companies rather than with foreign organisations. Collaboration through local
             partners is a must.
         •   The market is evolving rapidly since 2014 and new actors and competitors are
             emerging.
         •   New market opportunities can be found out of the institutional market. Examples
             are apps, real state, insurance or global supply chain markets.
         •   The recent trends in the market shows that most of the provinces are developing
             their early warning systems but there is still a big gap on forecast systems able to
             predict the air quality in a short and long-term basis with high precision and
             accuracy. In the case of Marco Polo project, the ensemble of seven models
             deployed offers a unique top-quality solution for these forecasting systems covering
             90% of Chinese population. We think Marco Polo forecast service based on
             satellite data could fill this gap.

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         •   An additional trend shows that most of the Chinese EMCs are able to monitor the
             pollution events but not to identify in a simple, accurate and rapid process (less
             than one month) the sources of these pollution events. This fact is important to help
             decision makers and regulators to plan actions regarding pollutant industries
             sources. We think Marco Polo emission inventory service based on satellite data
             could fill this gap.

3.2   Market Reports
      Existing traditional market

      The traditional market driving our proposed services is the air quality monitoring market.
      Market and Market report estimated that the air quality monitoring (AQM) market over the
      forecast period of 2016 to 2021 was to reach USD 5.64 Billion by 2021, at a CAGR of 8.5%
      from 2016 to 2021. Industries such as cement, mining, chemical and steel are growing
      rapidly in Asia-Pacific, which will increase the use of air quality monitoring systems. The air
      quality control systems market in Asia-Pacific is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.7%
      between 2014 and 2019.

      Market and Market report also estimated Air quality control systems market share (value),
      by Geography, 2013 as:

             Figure 3.1: Market geographical distribution of the Air quality control systems (Source:
                                              MarketandMarket).

      BSCC Research estimated that the global air quality monitoring market is expected to
      reach $6,889 million by 2022 from a market value of $3,742 million in 2015, growing at a
      CAGR of 9.2% from 2016 to 2022.The global air quality monitoring market for government
      agencies and academic institutes was valued at $1,219.1 million in 2015 and it is expected
      to grow at a CAGR of 9.0% during 2016 – 2022. During the period 2012 – 2015, the air
      quality monitoring was used mostly for monitoring the chemical pollutants.

      These reports show that the Asia-Pacific market is going to be a lead market for Europe
      and the Americas. For instance, Goldman Sachs report “China's environment. Big issues,
      accelerating effort, ample opportunities. July 2015” estimated that the Chinese

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environmental investment for 2011-2015 (RMB5.1TRN) was larger than the defence
budget (RMB4.0TRN) and expected to grow to RMB8.2 in 2016-2020.

The traditional market consuming air quality monitoring information are environmental
agencies which are monitoring polluting industries (power plants, cement, steel…) and
sectors (transport, residential heating…). Given that many Chinese provinces are
exceeding the air quality thresholds or limits, significant efforts and resources are also
required to prepare and implement air quality plans that describe effective abatement
measures (e.g. Low Emission Zone) that will be put in place to address any infringements.
Put simply, Environmental agencies are moving from a traditional ‘passive’ monitoring
actor to a pro-active integrated air quality management actor. This also applies even more
so to our target market areas where the air pollution concerns are very high on the agenda
and forecasted pollution episodes are frequent.

This new driver necessitates the need for reliable, timely, high quality air pollution data
and improved tools to be able to predict and manage air quality more efficiently. In
particular, at high resolution to provide insight into the impacts at an urban scale which is
where most of the infringements occur. These agencies require reliable, easy to use
decision making tools that support them to make better informed emission reduction plans
to minimise the health, economic and social impact on the population. The complexity and
fast transformation of these ecosystems will need a large volume of updated data to
improve informed decisions.

We think Earth Observation characteristics (wide coverage, long-term monitoring and
frequent observations) will allow a rapid time-to-market products update that will be crucial
for new forecast services.

This ties with the Copernicus Market Report 2016 prepared by Price Waterhouse Coopers
which identified three key drivers for the EO market related to Air Quality: 1) Increasing
demand for air quality applications for cities in developing countries, 2) Increasing demand
for air quality information at street level using EO data and in-situ devices and 3)
Increasing reporting obligations due to strengthening of air quality regulations.

New upcoming markets

In addition to traditional environmental regulation and planning market, new markets are
emerging with need of air quality data. We identified six potential new markets in China:
Green Supply Chain, Smart Cities, Mobile Apps, Real Estate, Insurance Risk and
Smart Home Appliances and Equipments. The trends and drivers of these markets
shows a potential opportunity for our air quality information services.

MarketandMarket estimated that Global Supply Chain market will grow from $2.5 billion
in 2014 to $4.8 billion by 2019. According to the Cap Gemini report “Future Supply Chain.
2016”, one of the key drivers for the sustainability of this market will be the reduction of
energy consumption and CO2 emissions needed to be adapted to new regulations.

Mordorintelligence estimated that the Smart Cities market is projected to grow from
$386.55 billion in 2014 to $1,386.56 billion in 2020, at a CAGR of 20.48% over the forecast
period. One of the key drivers of this market is the widespread adoption of Green
technologies for transport, electricity production and electricity consumption.

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              The IAIS Global Insurance Market Report 2016 states that the insurance industry is
              adapting itself responding to new scenarios derived from Climate Change and new risks
              derived from environmental uncertainties scenarios. One new business opportunity for
              these insurance companies is offering new products and services covering these new risks
              for companies willing to become greener within a new Greenhouse management market
              scenario.

              A new future opportunity will be the China´s Carbon trading market which started in 2016.
              This market is estimated to reach Rmb100 billions in 20206. Marco Polo team could further
              develop their project results to include new satellite missions (e.g. Sentinel-5 and
              CarbonSAT) to derive new products related to CO2 emissions.

              A new future opportunity will also be seasonal and long-term predictions due to future
              Climate Change scenarios. Cities and regional governments will need information about
              future scenarios in 30-50 years to set up mitigation and adaption measures to future
              warming impacts.

              In a long-term, Marco Polo project results and lessons learnt could be also be used to find
              new opportunities in growing markets such as India or Middle East countries.

              The market research shows that air quality treatment and monitoring investment in China is
              going to increase during 2016-2020 period so we expect air quality monitoring market to
              follow this trend. If the estimated global market value of air quality monitoring systems is
              6,889 million by 2022 (9.2% CAGR from 2015), we estimated that the size of the Chinese
              market will be 20 % of these market value (1,377 million by 2020).

6
    http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/interconnected-markets-folder/chinas-environment/report.pdf

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4   Customers
    We identified the following potential customers of the Marco Polo products:

    ENVIRONMENT MONITORING INSTITUTIONS

    These are considered the key institutional customers of our services.

       •   Chinese National Monitoring Environment Center (http://www.cnemc.cn/). This is
           the main institution in China in charge of the monitoring of environment (air quality,
           water and waste). They have a national monitoring system based on regional
           monitoring systems. They directly report to the Ministry of Environment Protection
           (http://english.mep.gov.cn/).
       •   Chinese Environmental Monitoring Centers. They are responsible for
           implementing and maintaining municipal, provincial, and regional monitoring
           networks for air quality. In Annex A and B we listed and described some of these
           Chinese EMCs.
       •   Satellite Environment Center (http://www.hcstzz.com/huanbao.aspx). This is the
           main institution in China in charge of monitoring environment (air quality, water and
           waste) using satellite data. They directly report to the Ministry of Environment
           Protection (http://english.mep.gov.cn/).
       •   National Satellite Meteorological Center (http://www.nsmc.cma.gov.cn/). This is the
           main institution in China in charge of weather forecast using satellite data. They
           also design, plan and operate Chinese Fengyun meteorological satellites. They
           directly report to the China Meteorological Administration (http://www.cma.gov.cn/).

    ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS

    These are considered partners working for key customers who can help of developing our
    services.

       •   Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth (http://www.radi.ac.cn/). This is the
           main institution in China in charge of remote sensing research. They belong to the
           Chinese Academy of Sciences.
       •   Chinese        Research         Academy          of     Environmental         Sciences
           (http://www.craes.cn/cn/index.html). This is the main institution in China in charge of
           science environment research. They belong to the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
       •   Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning (http://www.caep.org.cn/). Its
           mission is to provide technical support and services such as environmental
           planning, environmental policy, and consultation on environmental project selection
           management for the Chinese government and corporations.

    ENVIRONMENT INDUSTRY

    These are considered environmental service providers working for key customers who can
    help us developing our services.

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   •   Equipment and consultancy solutions monitoring companies. These are
       companies providing equipment and solutions to Chinese EMCs. Examples of
       these companies are:
           o Sinogreen Enviromental Protection Technlology (www.zlhb.com.cn).
           o SailHero (http://www.sailhero.com.cn/)
           o Wuhan Techking (http://www.tkhb.com.cn/)
           o OYST (Beijing Beike Ouyuan Science & Technology (http://www.oyst.com.cn/)
           o Yunzhou TechChinese (http://www.yunzhou-tech.com/)
           o Environment SA (http://www.environnement-sa.com/)
           o Ramboll Environ China (http://www.ramboll-environ.com/)
           o IMB Global (https://www.research.ibm.com/green-horizons/interactive/)
   •   New emerging markets. These are new companies in the Green Market.
       Examples of these companies are:
           o Insurance and Risk companies
           o Real State Companies
           o Smart Cities solutions providers
           o Air purifiers equipment’s
           o Global Supply Chain auditors and certifiers
   •   China         Association       of       Enviromental      Protection       Industry
       (www.chinaenvironment.org). This is the main association grouping the main
       manufacturers and consultancy companies in the environment protection market.
       These companies provide products and services to Chinese environmental
       protection institutions and organisations. This association also organizes the major
       industry event in China (China International Environmental Protection Exhibition &
       Conference, CIEPEC).
   •   Non-Governmental AQI APPs developers. These are APPs developers providing
       air quality index information and health assessment to Chinese citizens. Examples
       of these companies/APPs are:
           o AQICN (http://aqicn.org)
           o Air matters (https://air-matters.com/)
           o Moji (http://www.moji.com/ )
           o Plume Labs (https://air.plumelabs.com)

Non-Profit organisations

These are considered potential partners to rise public funding in China for developing our
services.

          o   Institute for Public Environment (http://wwwen.ipe.org.cn/)
          o   Friends of Nature (http://www.fon.org.cn/index.php/en )
          o   Greenpeace China (http://www.greenpeace.org/hk/ )

Our strategy related to customer demographics is focused on providing data and
information to the main actors disseminating Air Quality Index information through their
own channels such as websites, apps or community tools.

Marco Polo products shall be tailored to each customer need, integrating our flows of
information into target customers processes and systems.

The establishment of a long-term relationship with targeted customers will allow us to
demonstrate the high quality of our products compared with existing products in China.

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This relationship should be also consolidated through the establishment of an agreement
with a local partner to promote and develop Marco Polo future opportunities in China. This
local partner could be any of the main research institution mentioned above. Nevertheless,
the business environment in China practically obliges to have a Chinese company to make
business. It means that isardSAT company should be ready to open a subsidiary in China
to further develop business there.

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5         SWOT analysis
                     Strengths                                                Opportunities
Scientific excellence of the products is very high.     Most of customers do not have a real-time high-quality
Extension of the service in new customers is more       forecasting system implemented.
cost-effective and less time consuming due to the       Most of customers do not have a near-real time
global characteristics of EO data and models used.      (monthly) high-quality up-bottom emission inventory.
Some consortium partners are public institutions        Creating sustainable business and job opportunities for
highly motivated and skilled to further develop         a European SME
commercial products and services out of Europe.         Fostering innovation, research and job opportunities
Services would need a short time frame (less than       for European Meteorological institutes and research
12 months) to become operational marketable             centres.
products.                                                             th
                                                        2011-2015 12 Year Plan investments have been
Marco Polo products are already integrated with         focusing in new Air Quality monitoring systems. The
                                                                                                              th
bottom-up emissions inventories and with official       next step should be forecasting systems for period 13
Chinese ground data.                                    Year Plan 2016-2020.
Sentinel-5 and future Chinese missions data will        Products and services could easily be deployed in a
enhance service spatial and time resolution             new less developed market such as India and South-
                                                        East Asian Countries
                                                        Provide value to existing EU programs and projects
                                                        beyond their funding period

                    Weaknesses                                                   Threats
Business Chinese company still not in place.            Environmental Consultancy companies could become
Chinese human resources and/or local partners           competitors in a near future using satellite data and
needed for doing business in China.                     new models.
Local customisation and personalisation will require    EMCs could prefer to develop their own forecast
further investments.                                    systems without external and/or foreign providers.
Investment needed for further develop business.
Lack of long-term business relationships with target
customers need some transition time to increase
customers trust on our services.
Some consortium partners are public institutions not
eager to further develop commercial products and
services.
Provided air quality data might not meet the current
customers quality criteria and standards.
Market acceptance needs to increase

                                                Table 5.1: S.W.O.T Analysis

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6         Competitors
          Chinese market is highly competitive and evolves rapidly. It means that your local partners,
          customers or new emerging actors could become competitors in a short-term. We
          identified the following potential competitors in the near future:

    Competitor        Date   Size            Market      Value     to        Strengths         Weaknesses
                                             share (%)   customers

    Satellite         2012   More than 60    Unknown     They are the        They belong to    Lack of high
    Environment              people.                     official    MEP     Ministry    of    quality
    Center                   Turnover                    institution    to   Environment       emissions
                             unknown                     monitor       air   Protection.       inventory.
                                                         quality      with
                                                         satellite data

    National          1971   More than 200   Unknown     They are the        They belong to    Lack of high-
    Satellite                people.                     official    CAP     China             performing
    Meteorological           Turnover                    institution    to   Meteorological    models.
    Center                   unknown                     monitor       air   Administration.
                                                         quality      with
                                                         satellite data

    31   Provincial   1971   More     than   Unknown     They are the        They belong to    Lack of high-
    Meteorological           1000 people.                natural     local   China             performing
    Bureaus                  Turnover                    partners of the     Meteorological    models.
                             unknown                     EMC province        Administration.
                                                         institution

    IBM China         1996   More     than   Unknown     Commercial          Single Entity     Costs of the
                             1000 people.                company with        and               services.
                             Turnover                    decision            recognised
                             unknown                     making tools        brand

                                                                             Wide presence
                                                                             in China

    Breezometer       2012   More than 12    Unknown     Commercial          Business          Lack of EO
                             people.                     company             development       data
                             Turnover                    covering end-       strategy  and     expertise
                             unknown                     to-end     air      network very
                                                         quality             efficient
                                                         services

                                       Table 6.1: Competitors

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7         The Exploitation Plan
          The table below summarises all our identified actions to further exploit Marco Polo results
          to transform them into marketable products:

    ID        Description                                                                    Date
    A-1       Distribute emissions inventory data samples for 2014 period among             Q2 2017
              all potential customers
    A-2       Establish an API to distribute forecast results among potential               Q3 2017
              customers for a time limited period
    A-3       Produce product catalogue in Chinese including pricelist                      Q3 2017
    A-4       Contact potential customers and develop commercial opportunities              Q2 2017
    A-5       Organise an H2020 proposal for downstream services for exploit                Q1 2017
              Marco Polo research products commercially
    A-6       Explore further opportunities in emerging markets (India, Middle-East)        Q3 2017
    A-7       Analyse how to further exploit Marco Polo results using Copernicus            Q3 2017
              data
    A-8       Establish a consortium agreement to further exploit commercially              Q2 2017
              Marco Polo results. This includes IPR settlement and project results
              ownership.
    A-9       Identify the costs of these exploitation and promotion activities             Q3 2017

                                 Table 7.1: Exploitation Plan actions

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8      Business Plan
    Our Business Plan will follow CANVAS Business Model. Hereafter we define all the
    components of this model applied to Marco Polo project.

       1)   PROBLEM

       •    Lack of information and decision making tools to manage and predict air quality
            pollution events in order to reduce its economic impact and damages.
       •    Lack of updated information about air quality emissions.

       2)   CUSTOMER SEGMENT

       •    Environmental Agencies
       •    Green Supply consultancy
       •    Mobile Apps
       •    Insurance companies
       •    Real Estate Agencies
       •    Air Purifier Equipment Vendors
       •    Urban Planning

       3)   UNIQUE VALUE PROPOSITION

       •    Marco Polo service forecast service allows predicting more accurately severe air
            quality pollution events in a wide range of cities at lower costs.
       •    Marco Polo top-down emissions inventory allow building an emission inventory 2 years
            before existing competing bottom-up inventories at lower costs. This fact is especially
            relevant for China where emissions change very frequently due to new economic
            development and new environment framework.
       •    Monitoring illegal emissions not detected from non-satellite methods.

       4)   SOLUTION

       An integrated service platform providing a full range of services covering all value chain
       from AQ information monitoring, emissions inventory up to AQ forecasting systems. See
       section 2 for further information.

       5)   CHANNELS

       Dedicated on-site visits and website promotion.

       6)   UNFAIR ADVANTAGE

       •    Better low cost solution thanks to the economies of scale of systems based on EO
            data.
       •    Reduced time-to-market because we do not need local deployments and local
            resources.
       •    Technology still not available in all Chinese regions.

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    7)   REVENUE STREAMS and COST STRUCTURE

Our pricing strategy for every target customer will be tailored and it will depend on the following
factors:

    ●    Competition market prices

    ●    Customer financial capacity

    ●    Customer area of interest and time span

    ●    Number of services involved and their licensing model

    ●    Operation costs including data provision, hardware provision, integration, support and
         consulting costs

    ●    Commercialisation costs

The initial estimation of our 3-years business plan after project closure is based on our initial
dialogues with some of the key target customers. The first conclusion from these dialogues is
that the value and price of our services depends on each customer benefit so they cannot be
easily standardised. The second conclusion is that the pricing strategy only based on the
surface covered and the timespan of the data cannot fulfil the business models of some actors.
For instance, Environmental Agencies could be comfortable with this pricing model but Apps
developers not. Apps developer would like to tie the price of our data to the number of apps
users using it. Third, the value (and price) of the data decreases with time. For instance, an
emission inventory for February 2017 in March 2017 is precious but its value and price in 2018
could dramatically decrease.

In order to solve this problem, we have simplified our finance plan (Table 6.1) and we have
estimated all the figures taking into account three scenarios: low market acceptance, moderate
market acceptance and high market acceptance. In all scenarios:

    •    Direct costs will include business development, infrastructure, legal assessment and
         consulting services.

    •    FTE are computed according to Marco Polo project average costs (80Keuros/year)

    •    Each contract average revenue will be 500Keuros (average of 1 or 2 services
         included).

    a)   Scenario 1: Low Market acceptance

    •    We roughly estimate to have 10 contracts during 3 years.

    •    Total revenues 3 years: 5400K; Number of employees created: 4.9FTE;

    •    Profits for long-term sustainability: -620K

    b)   Scenario 2: Moderate Market acceptance

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         •      We roughly estimate to have 20 contracts during 3 years.

         •      Total revenues 3 years: 10850K; Number of employees created: 14.9FTE;

         •      Profits for long-term sustainability: 2570K

         c)     Scenario 3: High Market acceptance

         •      We roughly estimate to have 50 contracts during 3 years.

         •      Total revenues 3 years: 24800K; Number of employees created: 24.9FTE;

         •      Profits for long-term sustainability: 11000K

                     Low market acceptance            Moderate market acceptance                  High market acceptance

                                              Win
              Costs               Revenues                                         Win                                    Win
                       Personal               (C-   Costs    Personal   Turnover          Costs     Personal   Turnover
Year                                                                               (C-                                    (C-B-
                       cost (B)               B-    (A)      cost (B)   (C)               (A)       cost (B)   (C)
              (A)                 (C)                                              B-A)                                   A)
                                              A)

                                               -
2020           300       400            400         450        1200       1400     -250    750       2000       3200       450
                                              300

                                               -
2021           620       600        1000            930        1800       3500     770    1550       3000       8000       3450
                                              220

                                               -
2022          1000       800        1700            1500       2400       5950     2050   2500       4000       13600      7100
                                              100

                                               -
TOTAL         1920      1800        5400      620   2880       5400      10850     2570   4800       9000       24800     11000

Employ
(FTE)                    4.9                                   14.9                                   24.9

                         Table 8.1: Three year business plan. Costs are in Keuro

 From the consortium previous experience, we estimate that moderate and high market
 acceptance scenarios are greatly achievable.

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9            Annexes

Annex A: List of EMCs websites
The following table shows the list of existing EMCs in China, their organization websites, the websites
where AQI data is published, examples of maps, the number of total monitoring stations and the
availability of forecast information.

         Source                   Link                     data              Map             Total stations      Air quality
                                                      distribution                                                forecast
Beijing Municipal          http://www.bjmem        http://www.bjme     http://zx.bjmemc           35                   -
Environmental Monitoring        c.com.cn/          mc.com.cn/g377          .com.cn/
Centre                                                    .aspx
Tianjin Environment        http://www.tjemc.o      http://www.tjemc    http://air.tjemc.or        27                  -
Monitoring Centre          rg.cn/html/Pagein       .org.cn/html/Pag           g.cn/
                                dex.aspx           eDownLoad.asp
                                                    x?ChannelID=6
                                                   3&CategoryID=1
                                                            40
Shangai Environmental      http://www.semc.g       http://www.semc              -                 17          http://www.semc
Monitoring Centre          ov.cn/home/index.       .gov.cn/aqi/hom                                            .gov.cn/home/in
                                   aspx               e/Index.aspx                                                dex.aspx
Liaoning Provincial        http://www.lnemc.       http://www.lnem     http://www.lnem            66                  -
Environmental Monitoring   cn/About.aspx?id        c.cn/Download.a     c.cn/index.aspx
Experiment Centre                   =2                  spx?id=1
Jiangsu Environmental      http://www.jsem.n       http://218.94.78.            -                 302         http://www.jsem.
Monitoring                 et.cn/jshjjc/default.    64:888/th_ed1/                                            net.cn/jshjjc/defa
                                   aspx            Web/Air/Monitor                                                 ult.aspx
                                                   Site_AQI_DayR
                                                    eportExtension.
                                                   htm?Ticket=770
                                                      4310b-6052-
                                                      4338-8d40-
                                                    fe9c6c5965e2&
                                                   MonitorSiteBatc
                                                           h=1
Zhejiang Province          http://www.zjemc.                           http://aqi.zjemc.          72                  -
Environmental Monitoring          org.cn/                              org.cn/aqi/flex/in
                                                                           dex.html
SiChuan Environmental      http://www.scemc.                           http://www.scne            104         http://www.scne
Monitoring Centre                  cn/                                 wair.cn:3389/pu                        wair.cn:3389/pu
                                                                       blish/index.html                       blish/index.html
Gansu Province             http://www.gsemc.       http://www.gsem     http://61.178.81.                              -
Environmental Monitoring   cn/Web/Default.as       c.cn/Web/Report     9:8080/gs/prom
Centre                               p                 Main.asp               pt.jsp
Heilongjiang Province      http://www.hljemc.
                                   com/
Environmental Protection   http://www.jxepb.g      http://www.jxepb     http://111.75.22          60          http://www.jxepb
Department of JiangXI             ov.cn/           .gov.cn/ZXFU/F      7.203:9180/eipp/                            .gov.cn/
province                                           WEH/index.htm       flexoutput/index.
                                                                               html

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