Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management

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Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management
Market
Outlook
May 2018
Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management
Equity
Markets
Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management
Key Events – April 2018

• RBI left the policy rates unchanged in the April policy. RBI lowered their projections for CPI inflation: CPI is now estimated to range
  between 4.7-5.1% in H1FY19 and 4.4% in H2FY19

• The India Meteorological Department(IMD) forecast says that there will be 97% normal monsoon for the year 2018-19

• Mar trade deficit widened to $13.7bn from $12bn last month as exports slipped into YoY contraction led by decline in gems & jewellery
  and textiles. Imports growth slowed but stayed positive at 7.1%. With this, FY18 trade deficit rose to $156.8bn (~6.4% of GDP) from
  $108.5bn last year (~4.9% of GDP).

• India’s Industrial Production data for the month of Feb stayed buoyant at 7.1% which was higher than consensus estimates of 6.8%.
  While base effect post demonetization has been supportive, the double-digit expansion in 10 out of 23 manufacturing sector suggest
  broad-based strength. Growth in capital goods rose to 20% YoY, highest in 28 months

• India added around 34.6 lakh people to the formal workforce between September 2017 and February 2018, according to payroll data
  released by Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) and National Pension System (NPS) for the first time.

• Domestic mutual fund holdings in Indian Equities increased further to 6.6% (+24bps Q/Q) and at life time highs, continuing the
  strong momentum up 200bps since Sep-16 (pre-demon quarter).

• Indian equities (Nifty 50 +6.2%) saw some recovery post the YTD correction as early earnings trends across sectors were broadly
  supportive. Outcome of Karnataka state elections and MSCI rebalancing will be keenly monitored by investors this month.

3
Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management
TCS At 100bn$– Only 63 Companies Globally In This League

4
Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management
Normal Monsoon Forecast For 2018
> 40% chance of a normal monsoon in 2018

                       April Forecast for Monsoon rains as % average vs Actual rains

5                                                                              Source : IMD
Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management
GST Trend
    The March jump . . .

                Monthly GST Collection   GST Collection (based on initial release for the month)

6                                               Source : CLSA, Ministry of Finance
Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management
Crude Breaches $75!
    Fiscal threat of 40-50bp if crude remains above $70

              Excise tax collections to Central government from petro products (Petrol and Diesel)

7                                                             Source : CLSA, PPAC, Budget Documents
Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management
India’s CAD Vs Average Oil Price Trend

                            India’s CAD vs Average Oil price trend

8                                                                    Source : CLSA, RBI
Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management
Rise Of Twin Deficit Fears Could Trigger INR Depreciation

                             USD:INR Exchange Rate

9                                                    Source : CLSA, Bloomberg
Market Outlook May 2018 - Kotak Asset Management
Can The BJP Regain Momentum
     Make or break elections for the Congress..

                                         Political Map of India

10                                                      Source : Election Commission of India, CLSA
Opinion Polls Indicate A Hung Assembly In Karnataka

                      Recent opinion polls forecast, 2013 State election and 2014 General election results

       Source : Election Commission of India, Times Now, India Today, ABP, 2013 figures for the BJP includes those of two other parties- KJP
11     and BSRCP - which had a combined vote share of 12.5%
Corporate Earnings Result Trends So Far

     • Still early into this result season, as bulk of results will be declared in May-June

     • IT Sector – Hope of a marginal improvement in revenue trajectory, the weakening rupee and under-ownership of
       sector seems to have propelled the sector into limelight, for now

     • Cement – Positive demand commentary, still awaiting price improvement, especially in light of increasing cost
       due to higher energy costs

     • FMCG – indicating recovery in volumes, especially due to poor base quarter

     • Auto – Demand momentum sustains, though higher commodity costs takes some sheen off operating margins

     • Retail banks – improving credit growth, especially taking share from PSU banks

     • Corporate focused banks – as expected, weak earnings with likely large losses this quarter

     • Telecom – weakness continues as pricing remains challenging

12
High Frequency Indicators Showing Improvement…
     Bank credit growth has picked up vs. total system credit

                                          Bank and Total Credit

13                                                                Source : RBI, SEBI, CLSA
YoY Percentage Change In Total Sales Of Tractors

                     Tractor sales increased 52% YoY in March, taking 3mma growth to 43%

14                                                                          Source : CLSA, CMIE
Market Performance
Performance of Sensex and Nifty Indices

15                                         Source : Bloomberg, Kotak institutional Equities
Strong Performance By Majority Sectors In FY18
 Pharma & PSU lagging in returns

                                                                      BSE Sectoral Indices
        50     (%)
                     41.1
        40
                                   30.2
        30                                      26.3         26.3
                                                                          20.1
        20
               12.1                                                                    13.4            13.1
                             9.0          9.0                       9.9                                             9.4
        10                                             7.2                       7.4                                                                   7.6
                                                                                                 5.3          5.8                       5.3

          0
                                                                                                                          (1.3) (0.2)                                (0.0)
                                                                                                                                              (3.9)
        (10)                                                                                                                                                 (5.8)
                                                                                                                                                                         (12.9)
        (20)
               IT Services    Tech        Realty       Metals       FMCG          Auto           Bankex        Capital    Oil & Gas     Power         Healthcare        PSU
                                                                                                               Goods

                                                                          1m return %           1 yr return %

19                                                                                            *As on 30 April 2018, Source: Axis Capital, Bloomberg
Performance Across Market Cap -
 Strong Performance Down the Capitalisation Curve

         25
                                                                                                                                             22.9
                                                                                            21.0
                                                                                                                              19.7
         20                                                                                                                           18.9
                                                                                     16.9
                           15.4
         15
        In percent

                                           12.6                              12.2
                                                                                                    11.2
                                  9.5
         10                                                                                                            8.3                          8.8
                                                   7.6                8.2
                     6.2
                5

                0
                                  Nifty                                        Nifty Midcap                                   S&P BSE Smallcap

                                          1m returns         1y returns        3 yr CAGR         5 yr CAGR         10 yr CAGR

18                                                *As on 30 April 2018, Source: Bloomberg, Past Performance may or may not sustain in the future
Sensex Returns (%) 6 month before & 6 month Latter during Union elections
  (1 of 2)
                                            6m                                            6m                                  6m
               6m before      Elec Date               6m before Elec Date    6m latter             Elec Date   6m latter             Elec Date     6m latter   6m before Elec Date      6m latter
                                           latter                                        before                             before
Dates           July-79        Jan-80     July-80      June-84    Dec-84     June-85     May-89     Nov-89         May-90   Nov-90   May-91         Nov-91      Oct-95      Apr-96       Oct-96
Sensex            125            118        123          246       272         459        706        712            778      1265     1284           1911        3409        3765         3251
Sensex
                 -5.25                     3.81         10.31                 68.96       0.84                      9.31     1.51                   48.77        10.46                    -13.66
Retn(%)
Govt Formed                Janta Party                            Congress                        National Front                     Cong + left                         United Front
                                                                                                                                                                  UF formed govt, No big party
                                                                                                                                                                            formed
                                                                                                                                                                govt. 3 PM in 2 yrs BJP failed to
                                                                                                                                                                form govt Devi Gowda and then
                                                                                                                                                                       Gujral became PM
Total Return
                                           -1.44                              79.26                                10.15                            50.28                                 -3.21
in 1 yr
                                                        6m                                6m                                 6m
               6m before      Elec Date   6m latter              Elec Date   6m latter             Elec Date   6m latter             Elec Date     6m latter   6m before Elec Date      6m latter
                                                       before                            before                             before
                                                        Mar-
Dates           Aug-97         Feb-98      Aug-98                Sept-99     Mar-2000    Oct-03     Apr-04         Oct-04   Oct-08    Apr-09        Oct-09      Nov-13      May-14       Nov-14
                                                         99
Sensex           4321           3450          2969      3649       4710        5521       4852       5805           5673    10581     10947         17323       20399        23905        28177
Sensex
                -20.16                     -13.94       29.07                  17.21     19.65                      -2.27    3.46                    58.24       17.19                    17.87
Retn(%)
Govt Formed                    NDA                                   NDA                               UPA                               UPA                                  NDA
                     BJP form govt ,AIDMK
                    withdrew support latter
Total Return
                                           -34.11                              46.29                               17.38                             61.69                                35.06
in 1 yr

                                                                                                                               Source : Phillip Capital
The Findings Are Noteworthy (2 of 2)

      Over return in 1 yr : 70% of time markets have given an +ve return (ranging from 10%~79%). Twice Mkts gave negative return was

        when 96 & 98 when United Front (UF) Govt came and BJP formed govt post AIDMK support and they withdrew few months latter

      Return Pre election : 80% of time markets has given +ve return (ranging from 1% to 29%)

      Return Post election : 70% of time markets has given +ve return (ranging from 4% to 69%)

18                                                                                               Source: Phillip Capital
Most Global Markets Had Strong Showing In The Last Year

                      Brazil (IBOV)                             1.3                                            32.2
                           HK (HSI)                              2.4
                                                                                                    25.2
                     China (HSCEI)                                2.8
                                                                                             20.7
                Japan (Nikkei 225)                                    4.7
                                                                                        17.0
                   US (Dow Jones)                              0.9
                                                                                      16.1
                       India (Nifty)                                    6.2          15.4
                     Korea (Kospi)                                2.8              14.1
                   Russia (IMOEX)                               1.2                13.9
                Singapore (Straits)                                    5.4         13.8
                   Taiwan (TSWE)                (2.4)
                                                                            8.0
             Malaysia (KLCI - FTSE)                            0.4
                                                                        5.8
                    Indonesia (JCI)            (3.1)
                                                                       5.4
                    UK (FTSE 100)                                     6.3
                                                                      4.1
                 France (CACS 40)                                      6.1
                                                                     4.1
                   Germany (DAX)                                    4.0
                                                                 1.1
                       Swiss (SMI)                              1.2
                                                               0.3                   1M          1Yr
             EURO (Euro Stoxx 50)                                    4.7
                                               (1.1)
                                       (20)                0                            20                             40

21                                            * As on 30 April 2018, Source: Bloomberg. Performance data in local currency
Valuations
Stock Picking Will Be Critical

                             Sensex sectoral long-term valuation snapshot: Forward PE*

         160
                                                                                                                                              -1 SD   +1 S
         140                                                                                            60

         120
                                                                                                        50                   Max
         100
                                                                                                        40                   Top Quartile
          80

          60                                                                                            30                   Current

          40
                                                                                                        20                   Lower Quartile
          20

           0                                                                                10                               Min
               Auto   BFSI     Engg   FMCG   IT   Metals       Oil    Pharma Power Telecom Sensex
                                                                                                          0
      Power & IT at lower end of valuations, other sectors moving towards upper end Auto
                                                                                    of valuation
                                                                                            BFSI
                                                                                                 zone
                                                                                                    Engg                                       FMCG IT S

23                                                *As on 30 April 2018, Source: Axis Capital, Bloomberg, Note: * Since April-2005
Indian Markets Higher Than Most Peers On Valuation

                                              P/E Multiple CY18/FY19 of Indices

            India (Sensex)                                                                                                         20.9
              US (Nasdaq)                                                                                          18.6
     Malaysia (KLCI - FTSE)                                                               15.5
        Japan (Nikkei 225)                                                     14.3
            Thailand (SET)                                                         14.8
           US (Dow Jones)                                                          14.8
        Singapore (Straits)                                            13.3
            UK (FTSE 100)                                             13.3
              Brazil (IBOV)                               11.6
                  HK (HSI)                         10.8
             Korea (Kospi)              9.1
             China (HSCEI)        7.3                                                                                                (x)

                              6               10                         14                                18                              22

24                                                                                     Source: Internal Estimates , Bloomberg
                                                                 * For India & Japan Fiscal year is FY19 while others it is CY18
With Greater Power Comes Greater Responsibility

                                   MF Equity collections in CY17 were ~80% of collections in last decade

25    Source: CEIC, AMFI, IIFL Research. Note: Based on sum of ‘ELSS’, ‘Other ETF’, ‘Growth’ and 65% Of ‘Balanced’ category collections. * CY17 flows based
      on period of Jan to Nov-17
Trend In Equity And Derivatives Flows

     Net Investments by FPIs, DIIs and MFs in the cash market (US$ mn)                                   Net foreign flows in the derivatives market (US$ mn)

      Notes: (a) DII -Domestic Institutional Investors (Includes Bank, DFIs, Insurance, New Pension Scheme and MF).
26           (b) FII data is till Apr 26, MF data is till Apr 25 and DII data is till Apr 27.
Domestic Flows May Sustain Into Equity Funds In CY 18

                                  • Mature investor
                                    base understanding
                                    the benefits of
     • Low FD Return                compounding of
                                    equities as asset    Flows to equities
     • Uncertain real               class
       estate environment
                                  • SIP as a tool to
                                    counter volatility

27
Markets Consolidating As It Awaits Economy To Take Off

       Sensex ‘EPS’
        Sensex P/E

                      FY93-97   FY98-03   FY05-09                               FY10-17                  FY18-19e

28                                          Past performance is not a reliable indicator of expected future performance
Key Variables & Their Impact On Equities

       Key Variables              Short -   Medium –   Remarks
                                  term      term
       Economy                                         GST to impact near-term activity especially informal segment

                                                       Improving operating leverage, falling interest costs and improvement in
                                                       working capital can accelerate earnings, but a bit back-ended. Key is
       Corporate Earnings                              improvement in capacity utilisation

                                                       India stands out among global asset classes with prospects of strong
       FII Flow                                        long term growth.

       DII Flow                                        Focus on improving financial savings of households

                                                       Higher disinvestment target and repair of leveraged balance sheet to
       Supply of paper                                 create supply in markets.

                                                       Election heavy year can dampen near term outlook for meaningful
       Policy/Reform Initiative                        reform

29
30
                                                                                                                                                                                                             1.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    6.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            7.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-91
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-92
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-93
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-94
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-95
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-96
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-97
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-98
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-99
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-00
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-01
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-02

               12000
                                            18000
                                                             21000
                                                                               24000
                                                                                                        30000
                                                                                                                           33000
                                                                                                                                                  36000

                              15000
                                                                                       27000
                                                                                                                                                          39000
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-03
     Apr-15                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-04
     May-15                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-05
     Jun-15                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sensex P/B (x) - LHS

      Jul-15                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr-08
     Aug-15                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-09
     Sep-15                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     12-month forward Sensex P/B (x)

     Oct-15                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-12
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Markets Above Fair Range

     Nov-15                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-13
     Dec-15                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-14
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-15
     Jan-16                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-16
     Feb-16                                                                                                                                                                                         Apr-17
     Mar-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Apr-18
     Apr-16
                                                                     Fair 13x - 17x
     May-16
     Jun-16
      Jul-16
     Aug-16
     Sep-16
                   Cheap 8x - 10x

     Oct-16
                                      Attractive 10x - 13x

     Nov-16
                                                                                               Fair Value Plus 17x - 20x

     Dec-16
                                                                                                                            Stretched 20x - 24x

     Jan-17
                                                                                                                                                                  12-month forward Sensex P/E (x)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               83

     Feb-17                                                                                                                                                                                         2007
     Mar-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                    2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           103

     Apr-17
     May-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  55

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2009
     Jun-17
      Jul-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    95

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010
     Aug-17
     Sep-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  88

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2011
     Oct-17
     Nov-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          71

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2012
     Dec-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   64

     Jan-18                                                                                                                                                                                         2013
     Feb-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   66

     Mar-18                                                                                                                                                                                         2014
     Apr-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                    2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          81
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        the period

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       69

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Average of 78% for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   India’s Market Cap to GDP (%)

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2017E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            84

                                                                                                                                                                                                    2018E
While Valuations Not Cheap, Patience To Be Key As We Await Earnings To Pick Up

                                                             While equities may still be
                                                               out-performing other
                                                              alternate asset classes,
                                                                 moderate return
                                                                   expectations

                                                                    Corporate earnings,
                                                                   especially of domestic
                                                                    oriented companies
                                                                  showing improving trend

                                                     Use intermittent
                                                   volatility to increase
                                                     equity exposure

31
Apr-18
                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-18
                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-17
                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-17
                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-17
                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-17
                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-17
                                                                                                                                                                          Source: Bloomberg, Data as of 31st March 2018

                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-16
                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-16
                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-16
                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-16
                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-16
                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-15
                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-15
                                                                                                                                                                 May-15
                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-15
                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-14
                                                                          Prices Normalised to 100

                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-14
                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-14
                                                                                                                                                                 May-14
                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-14
                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-13
                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-13
                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-13
                                                                                                                                                                 May-13
                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-13
                                                                                                           Crude Prices
                             Nifty & Crude Show an Inverse Relationship

                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-12
                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-12
                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-12
                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-12
                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-12
                                                                                                                                                                 Dec-11
                                                                                                           Nifty Prices

                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-11
                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-11
Risk 1 – Higher Oil Prices

                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-11
                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-11
                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-10
                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-10
                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-10
                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-10
                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-09
                                                                                                                                                                 Aug-09
                                                                                                                                                                 Jun-09
                                                                                                                                                                 Mar-09

                                                                                                                                                        50
                                                                                                                   350

                                                                                                                                      200

                                                                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                     400

                                                                                                                          300

                                                                                                                                250

                                                                                                                                            150

                                                                                                                                                  100

                                                                                                                                                                          32
Risk 2 – Rise in equity issuance impacting market liquidity

                    A Potential Rise In Equity Issuance Might Impact Market Liquidity

                    But low returns in traditional avenues and increasing awareness
                              continues to drive money to capital markets
33                                                                                  Source: Bloomberg, CLSA
Risk 3 – Delay in NPL resolution

                   NPL Ratios Yet To Come Down And Resolution May Get Delayed

                                         Source: RBI, CLSA

                  Bank recap details & roadmap would give further clarity

34
Strategy For Investments In The Current Scenario

      1- Kumbhkaran
       (Invest & forget)

             Or

     2- Asset Allocation

35
Key Recommendations

                                        Key theme                                                       Remarks

      Large Cap – play on buying sectoral leaders that benefit from improving
                                                                                                         Kotak 50
      investment climate

      Balance of IQ and EQ                                                                         Kotak Classic Equity

      Diversified/Multicap – focus on sectors that are likely to benefit the most
                                                                                       Kotak Select Focus / Kotak Opportunities Fund
      across market cap

      Infrastructure revival – “True-to-label” fund – recent thrust of government to
                                                                                       Kotak Infrastructure & Economic Reforms Fund
      revive the infrastructure theme

      Through SIP in Midcap oriented scheme                                                   Kotak Emerging Equities Fund

      ELSS – Equity allocation with ability to reduce tax outgo                                   Kotak Tax Saver Fund

      Balanced – benefit from debt and equity allocation                                           Kotak Balanced Fund

                              We recommend investors to invest through SIP with a 5 years horizon.

36
DEBT
MARKETS
How April 2018 Unfolded
•    Inflation :
     – The CPI inflation moderated to a five-month low 4.3% in Mar 2018 (+3.9% in Mar 2017) from 4.4% in Feb 2018 (+3.7% in Feb
       2017, as vegetable prices eased further on fresh supplies. However core inflation, that strips out the impact of food and fuel prices,
       continued to rise hitting a 43-month high at 5.4%

      – Inflation based on wholesale prices eased marginally to 2.47% in March (2.48% in Feb 2018) on cheaper food articles, especially
        pulses and vegetables. WPI was 5.11% in March last year.
•    Trade Data :

     – India's merchandise exports fell 0.7% to US$ 29.11 billion in March 2018 over a year ago,
     – imports moved up 7.1% to US$ 42.80 billion.
     – The trade deficit jumped 28.6% to US$ 13.69 billion in March 2018 from US$ 10.65 billion in March 2017
• Monsoon 2018: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast says that there will be 97% normal monsoon for the year 2018-19,
  which could be a good news for the rural economy that suffered due to the twin impact of drought years and demonetisation.
• GST Collection :First time since the rollout of the new tax regime in July 2017, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection crossed ₹1
  trillion in the month of April this year.
• Monetary Policy: The RBI left its key policy rate unchanged at 6% for the 4th meeting on Apr 5, 2018. Policymakers said the decision is
  consistent with the neutral stance of monetary policy.

38
How April 2018 Unfolded

 •   Manufacturing sector activity improved marginally in April, rose from 51.0 in March to 51.6 in April, indicating faster
     improvement in the health of the country’s manufacturing economy than in the prior month.

 •   India’s industrial output grew 7.1 percent in February from a year earlier, government data showed.

 •   Rating agency Fitch kept India’s sovereign rating unchanged at BBB-, the lowest investment grade for the 12th year with
     stable outlook even as it praised the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

 •   The World Bank noted that the Indian economy has recovered from the effects of demonetisation and the GST and predicted a
     growth rate of 7.3% for the country in 2018.

 •   India will again emerge as the world’s fastest-growing major economy at least for the next two years, the IMF said. India’s
     growth will rise steadily to 7.4 % for 2018-19 and 7.8 % for 2019-20, against 6.7 % in 2017-18.

 •   North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in agreed to finally end a seven-decade war this year,
     and pursue the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula.

 •   RBI provided roadmap wherein the FPI limits would increase by 0.5% each year to 5.5% of outstanding stock of securities in
     2018-19 and 6% of outstanding stock of securities in 2019-20.

39
India’s Potential to Absorb Foreign Ownership in Gilt is High

41                                            Source: Nomura, RBI, CSL, Bloomberg, and CEIC.
RBI OMO Purchase Is Contingent To Increase In Currency in Circulation (CIC)

42                                                       Source: Nomura, RBI.
Positive Real Interest Rates to Stimulate Financial Savings

          6
          5
          4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3.22

          3
          2
          1
          0
          -1
          -2
          -3
               Feb-12
                        Apr-12
                                 Jun-12
                                          Aug-12
                                                   Oct-12
                                                            Dec-12
                                                                     Feb-13
                                                                              Apr-13
                                                                                       Jun-13
                                                                                                Aug-13
                                                                                                         Oct-13
                                                                                                                  Dec-13
                                                                                                                           Feb-14
                                                                                                                                    Apr-14
                                                                                                                                             Jun-14
                                                                                                                                                      Aug-14
                                                                                                                                                               Oct-14
                                                                                                                                                                        Dec-14
                                                                                                                                                                                 Feb-15
                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Feb-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apr-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jun-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aug-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dec-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Feb-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dec-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apr-18
      •    Earlier, negative real rates fueled inflation in physical assets as people chased assets such as real estate and gold
           till 2014.

      •    With real rates in the positive territory now, money is moving from physical to financial assets.
      Note: Monthly 10 year Gilt Yield taken as average of their respective month. April 2018 CPI is assumed to be same as March-18 and Real
43    Interest rate is calculated . Source: Bloomberg
CPI Inflation:
 We expect the Inflation to remain within the RBI Band
     12%

     10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        CPI                        Core CPI
      8%

      6%                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             5.4%

      4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4.28%
      2%

      0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mar-17
                    Jan-13

                                      May-13
                                               Jul-13
                                                        Sep-13

                                                                          Jan-14

                                                                                            May-14
                                                                                                     Jul-14
                                                                                                              Sep-14

                                                                                                                                Jan-15

                                                                                                                                                  May-15
                                                                                                                                                           Jul-15
                                                                                                                                                                    Sep-15

                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                        May-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Sep-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              May-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-18
                             Mar-13

                                                                                   Mar-14

                                                                                                                                         Mar-15

                                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Mar-18
           Nov-12

                                                                 Nov-13

                                                                                                                       Nov-14

                                                                                                                                                                             Nov-15

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Nov-16

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Nov-17
 • The CPI inflation moderated to a five-month low 4.3% in Mar 2018 (+3.9% in Mar 2017) from 4.4% in Feb 2018 (+3.7% in Feb 2017.
 • The inflation for food and beverages moderated to a five-month low 3.0% in Mar 2018 (+2.5% in Mar 2017) from 3.5% in Feb 2018
   (+2.4% in Feb 2017); primarily reflecting the decline in inflation for vegetables.
 • The core-CPI inflation rose to a 43-month high 5.4% in Mar 2018 from 5.2% in Feb 2018 led by pan, tobacco and intoxicants, and a
   broad-based uptick in miscellaneous items.
 • Notably, the wedge between headline and core-CPI inflation widened to six-month high 109 bps in March 2018.

43                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Source: MOSPI
Crude Oil Prices Spiked

     80                                                   Brent Crude (USD)
                                                                                                                                           75.17
     75

     70

     65

     60

     55

     50

     45

     40
                   Jun-17

                            Jul-17

                                                            Oct-17
                                                 Sep-17
                                       Aug-17

                                                                                               Jan-18

                                                                                                           Feb-18

                                                                                                                         Mar-18
          May-17

                                                                                                                                  Apr-18
                                                                      Nov-17

                                                                                  Dec-17
• Brent Crude Oil price rose to $75.17 from $70.27 in the previous month. Inventories of crude that had built up during the glut of 2014-16
  have largely been worked off because of strong demand driven by a booming global economy and supply cuts by Opec and Russia.
• Oil prices also got a boost due to Geo political risk factors such as crisis in Venezuela and Syria. Though rapprochement between North &
  South Korea will ease some pressure

                                                                        Data as on 30th April 2018, Source : Bloomberg
44
10 year Gilt Yield For the Month of April

                                                                                          India 10 year Gilt (%)
      7.9
               RBI allows banks to spread                                                                                                                                                                                  7.767
      7.8
               provisions made for mark-
                to-market losses on their
      7.7
                   bond portfolios &                                                                                                                                                US 10-year yield crossing 3%
                 Skymet’s prediction of
      7.6      normal monsoon rainfall;
                 perceived dovish policy                                                                                                             Hawkish RBI Minutes
      7.5

      7.4
                                                            Hike in limits for foreign investment
      7.3                                                   in government debt was lower than
                                                                what market participants had
                                                               expected, spike in crude, weak
      7.2           Profit booking
                                                              currency; lack of buying interest;
                                                                      rising global bonds
      7.1

       7
            3-Apr

                    4-Apr

                            5-Apr

                                    6-Apr

                                            7-Apr

                                                    8-Apr

                                                              9-Apr

                                                                                                                   15-Apr
                                                                      10-Apr

                                                                               11-Apr

                                                                                        12-Apr

                                                                                                 13-Apr

                                                                                                          14-Apr

                                                                                                                              16-Apr

                                                                                                                                       17-Apr

                                                                                                                                                18-Apr

                                                                                                                                                         19-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                  20-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                           21-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                                      22-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                                               23-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                                                        24-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 25-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          26-Apr

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   27-Apr
45                                                                                                                          Source: Bloomberg, Data as of 27th April 2018
Inflation to Drop Back Below RBI’s 4% Medium-Term Target

                  46
     Inflation could drop to 4% to March 2019 on base effect wearing out , stable food prices
     and assuming normal monsoon and crude prices to remain range bound

47                     *CPI projections include impact of higher housing rent allowance for central government employees
                       Source : Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Bloomberg Economics
Credit Growth Slowly Picking Up

                                                                                           Credit Growth (Weekly Data)
        9100000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     78
        8600000
                                                                                 Current Credit/ Deposit Ratio is ~74.52% (RHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     76
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     74
        8100000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     72
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     70
        7600000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     68

        7100000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      66
                                                                                 Commercial Credit by Banks = Rs 84.78 lakh Crore (LHS)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     64
        6600000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      62
                                    Jun-16

                                                                        Oct-16

                                                                                                                                                  Jun-17
                                             Jul-16

                                                                                                                                                           Jul-17

                                                                                                                                                                                      Oct-17
                                                               Sep-16

                                                                                                              Feb-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Feb-18
                  Apr-16

                                                                                                                       Mar-17

                                                                                                                                                                             Sep-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-18
                           May-16

                                                                                                                                Apr-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Apr-18
                                                      Aug-16

                                                                                  Nov-16

                                                                                                     Jan-17

                                                                                                                                         May-17
                                                                                            Dec-16

                                                                                                                                                                    Aug-17

                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov-17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dec-17
         Credit growth has picked up by 10-12% as compared to last year.

48                                                                                                              Source: Bloomberg, Data as on 30th April 2018
India Foreign Exchange Reserves – Stability Is Key

                                               India Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD)
430000

420000
                                                                                                                       423.58 Billion USD
410000

400000

390000

380000

370000
                  Jun-17

                            Jul-17

                                                              Oct-17
                                                     Sep-17
         May-17

                                                                                                  Jan-18

                                                                                                                        Mar-18
                                      Aug-17

                                                                        Nov-17

                                                                                                              Feb-18

                                                                                                                                    Apr-18
                                                                                     Dec-17
     Indian foreign exchange reserves have seen some decline as rising oil prices and FII selling led to rise in dollar
     demand

48                                                                     Source: Bloomberg, Data as on 30th April 2018
Active Liquidity Management

      9.5                                                           Repo Rate In the Last 1 year
       9
      8.5
       8
                                        Repo Rate (%)                Overnight Rate (MIBOR %)
      7.5
       7
      6.5
       6
      5.5
                            Jun-17

                                                                                   Oct-17
                                          Jul-17

                                                           Aug-17

                                                                      Sep-17
            May-17

                                                                                                     Nov-17

                                                                                                                                     Jan-18

                                                                                                                                                             Mar-18
                                                                                                                                                 Feb-18

                                                                                                                                                                               Apr-18
                                                                                                                     Dec-17
                           Amount in Rs. billion.

            Date                                    Repo            Reverse Repo             MSF               SLF            Total Systemic Liquidity    Government Balances

                     27th April 2018               -480.01            722.15                -31.15            -23.52                   187.47                         216.31
        RBI has managed to keep overnight rate close to the repo rate. As the liquidity in the system reduces due to the
        increase in the Currency in Circulation, RBI may start conducting Open market operations, possibly in Q2, as
        against Q3 & Q4 expected earlier
                                                                                                                Source : Bloomberg, As of 30th April 2018
49
Spreads Between 10 Year & Repo Widening

        10 year bond yield spread over repo similar to the 2013 rate hike cycle

51                                                           Source: Bloomberg, Citi Research
Yield Curve (M-o-M Analysis) Update chart

               8.5

                8

               7.5

                7

               6.5                                                          INR India Sovereign Curve Last Mid YTM          INR India Sovereign Curve 1/04/18 Mid YTM

                6
                          3M        6M        2Y        3Y        4Y    5Y       6Y      7Y      8Y      9Y     10Y   11Y       12Y    13Y     16Y     17Y       35Y    40Y

         50
                                                                                      YTM (M-o-M Change)
         30

         10

         -10         3M        6M        2Y        3Y        4Y        5Y       6Y      7Y      8Y      9Y      10Y   11Y       12Y     13Y     16Y        17Y    35Y    40Y

     •     Due to the profit booking and hawkish MPC minutes, the yields hardened across the curve. However, the yield movement
           in the ‘greater than 20yr segment’ was relatively lower than in the ‘less than 20 year segment’.

52                                                                                                                                     Source: Bloomberg
Relaxation of FPI Limits
        Particulars                Old provision                                            New provision                                         Potential Implication
                                                                                                >= 1 Year
   Revision of minimum                                                                                                                             We expect increase in
     residual maturity                                                                                                                            demand for short term
                                      >= 3 years                  If residual maturity < 1 year in either category (G-Sec/SDLs),
requirement -Government                                                                                                                          Government papers, which
                                                               investment shall not exceed, at any point of time, 20% of the total
  Bonds & Treasury Bills                                                                                                                           may soften the yields.
                                                                              investment of that FPI in that category.
                                                                                                                                   As on 27 April, 2018, the FPI
   Revision of minimum                                                                      >=1 year                                quota utlisation is 79.15%,
      residual maturity                                                                                                                hence we expect the
                                     >= 3 years
requirement -Government                                    If residual maturity < 1 year, investment shall not exceed, at any point demand for corporate
 Bonds -Corporate Bonds                                      in time, 20% of the total investment of that FPI in corporate bonds. bonds to increase, which
                                                                                                                                       may soften the yields.
                                                                                                                                    Likely to help FPIs build up
 Revision of security-wise
                           20% of the outstanding stock of                                                                              on the portfolio by
    limit in any Central                                                30% of the outstanding stock of that security
                                    that security                                                                                  concentration on securities
   Government security
                                                                                                                                          already bought.
                                                                                                                                       Likely to increase the
  Investment in Treasury
                                    Not Allowed                                             Allowed                                  demand for the Treasury
             Bills
                                                                                                                                                 Bills

   Monitoring of G-Sec       Auction mechanism after limit   Online monitoring of utilisation of G-sec limits by CCIL with effect from June 1, Actions will go away and all
    utlisation limits           utlisation reaches 90%                                            2018.                                        limits will be available on tap.

   53                                                                                                                              Source: RBI
Relaxation of FPI Limits
  Particulars        Old provision                                                   New provision                                                        Potential Implication
                                                            Long-term FPIs: 15% of prevailing investment limit for that category.
                                                              Other FPIs: 10% of prevailing investment limit for that category.

                                          In case an FPI has investments (INV0) in excess of the concentration limit on the effective date, it will be
                                        allowed to undertake additional investments such that its portfolio size at any point in time (INVt) does not
                                        exceed INV0 plus 2.5% of investment limit for the category on the effective date. Once INVt falls below the
                                       prevailing concentration limit for the category, the FPI shall be free to make investments up to the applicable
 Concentration                                                                                                                                              Concentration cap may
                     Not Applicable                                                  concentration limit.
    limits                                                                                                                                                   affect larger players.
                                        In case an FPI has investments (INV0) within the concentration limit, but in excess of 7.5% (12.5% in case of
                                        FPIs in the ‘Long-term’ sub-category) of the investment limit for the category on the effective date, that FPI
                                         shall be allowed to undertake additional investments such that its portfolio size at any point in time (INVt)
                                      does not exceed (INV0) plus 2.5% of the investment limit for the category on the effective date. Once INVt falls
                                       below the prevailing concentration limit for the category, the FPI shall be free to make investments up to the
                                                                                applicable concentration limit.
                                           (i) Investment by any FPI, including investments by related FPIs, shall not exceed 50% of any issue of a
                                         corporate bond. In case an FPI, including related FPIs, has invested in more than 50% of any single issue, it
                                                                                                                                                             Parental FPI likely to be
                                                         shall not make further investments in that issue until this stipulation is met.
                                                                                                                                                            difficult.(Global parent's
  Single/Group
                                                                                                                                                           subscription of NCD issued
  investor-wise                            (ii) No FPI shall have an exposure of more than 20% of its corporate bond portfolio to a single corporate
                     Not Applicable                                                                                                                        by domestic subsidiary has
limit in corporate                      (including exposure to entities related to the corporate). In case an FPI has exposure in excess of 20% to any
                                                                                                                                                             been made restrictive,
       bonds                             corporate (including exposure to entities related to the corporate), it shall not make further investments in
                                                                                                                                                             limited to 50% of total
                                      that corporate until this stipulation is met. A newly registered FPI shall be required to adhere to this stipulation
                                                                                                                                                                  issuance size)
                                                          starting no later than 6 months from the commencement of its investments.

   54                                                                                                                                     Source: RBI
Relaxation of FPI Limits :
Boost to Overall Demand May Lower Yields

                                           Source: RBI
India-Us 10 Year Gilt- Spreads Provide Adequate Safety

     The spreads have widened over last 1 month. However we expect the spreads would compress in
     medium term due to narrowing inflation differentials
55                                                                              Source: Bloomberg
Inflation Adjusted Yields In India Is Attractive

     12

     10                                                                                                                                                                 India-US CPI Spread                                           India-US Gilt Spread

     8

     6

     4

     2

     0
          Aug-12
                   Oct-12
                            Dec-12
                                     Feb-13
                                              Apr-13
                                                       Jun-13
                                                                Aug-13
                                                                         Oct-13
                                                                                  Dec-13
                                                                                           Feb-14
                                                                                                    Apr-14
                                                                                                             Jun-14
                                                                                                                      Aug-14
                                                                                                                               Oct-14
                                                                                                                                        Dec-14
                                                                                                                                                 Feb-15
                                                                                                                                                          Apr-15
                                                                                                                                                                   Jun-15
                                                                                                                                                                            Aug-15
                                                                                                                                                                                     Oct-15
                                                                                                                                                                                              Dec-15
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Feb-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apr-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jun-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aug-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dec-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Feb-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jun-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Aug-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Dec-17
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Feb-18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Apr-18
     -2

                                              Narrowing CPI spreads and widening bond spreads make Indian fixed income attractive

                      Note: 10 year Gilt Yield taken as average of their respective month . Data as of April 2018 (April 2018 CPI is assumed to be same as March 2018 .
56                                                                                                                                                    Source: Bloomberg
Global Bond Yields Remain Volatile

     3.5                                           10 Year Gilt of Selected Countries
       3
                                                                                       US 10 Year
     2.5

       2

     1.5
                                                 UK 10 Year
       1

     0.5                                                                  Germany 10 Year
                                                                                                               Japan 10 Year
       0
                     Jun-17

                                                                 Oct-17
                              Jul-17

                                                        Sep-17
            May-17

                                                                                                   Jan-18

                                                                                                                  Feb-18

                                                                                                                                Mar-18

                                                                                                                                         Apr-18
                                        Aug-17

                                                                           Nov-17

                                                                                    Dec-17
     -0.5

     Global bond yields rose during last month and continued to remain volatile on account of growth and inflation uncertainity

57                                                                                  Data as of 30th April 2018. Source: Bloomberg
Key Variables & their Impact On Interest Rates in 2018

                 Key Variables                      Short - term     Medium – term
                                                    (3-6 month)    (6month – 2 years)
                 Inflation

                 Rupee

                 Credit Demand

                 Government Borrowing

                 RBI Policy

                 Global Event Risk

                 Corporate bond Spread

                 Debt FII flow

                 Liquidity

                   denotes fall in interest rates
58
Widening Of Spread Between LIBOR And UST

     This can hurt companies borrowing in USD market more than what is priced by the market

59
Debt Outlook

  The 10 year gilt has risen up by around 64 bps to 7.76% since the April bottom of 7.12%.

  The spreads vis-a-vis the repo rate is now at 175 bps. These levels are similar to those witnessed in the 2013 cycle in
      wake of the currency crisis.

  Vis-à-vis the CPI inflation, the current yield level provides a spread of around 340 bps. While the inflation is below the RBI
      projection of 4.4% for Mar-19, even at 5-5.5% levels, the present gilt levels provide a real interest rate spread of more
      than 200 bps. Thus at these levels, the yields may be already discounting 1 to 2 rate hikes.

  Having said that if the crude prices remain range bound and the monsoon season passes off normally, then we may be in
      for a long pause. From that stand point, the present levels may seem higher than required.

  In the near term, the gilt is likely to remain volatile due to rising pressure from crude prices and rising yield level globally.
      In this scenario, the 10 year is likely to trade in the 7.6-7.9% range.

  The yield levels at the shorter end are also discounting 1-2 rate hikes. Going forward, we expect the rates to stabilize in
      the ±20 bps range from current levels

60
Key Recommendations

          Segment                              Scheme                              Rationale
            Accrual        Kotak Income Opportunities Fund / Kotak Medium Term    Investment for
             Play                                 Fund                            higher accrual

                                                                                  Investment for
        Asset Allocation               Kotak Monthly Income Plan
                                                                                 asset allocation

                           Kotak Treasury Advantage Fund / Kotak Low Duration
                                    Fund / Kotak Corporate Debt Fund
          Short Term
        Parking of Funds                                                          Higher post tax
                                       Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund
                                                                                      return

                                                                                   Investment for
                                      Kotak Mahindra Bond Scheme
                                                                                 longer maturities
         Duration Play
                                                                                  Investment for
                                         Kotak Bond Short Term
                                                                                 shorter maturities

61
Categorization and Rationalization of Mutual Fund Schemes

                   Categorization and Rationalization of Mutual Fund Schemes
     We believe - “ Funds are like kids. Don’t have more than you can manage.” -
     Because of this philosophy none of our schemes were required to be merged.

      There are a few change in names, which we have highlighted in Bold.

      Equity, Hybrid & FOFs would change with effect from May 25th 2018 (Exit Window of April 25th – May 24th 2018*) except
       Kotak Opportunities & Kotak Classic Equity

      Debt schemes along with Kotak Opportunities & Kotak Classic Equity would change with effect from June 1st 2018 (Exit
       Window of May 2nd – May 31st 2018)

      Please be mindful when considering past performance of schemes, since some schemes in the Industry will have
       change in characteristics/positioning post the standardization of scheme categories.

62        *ETFs do not have an exit window
Equity Funds

                  Equity Funds
         Existing           Existing Scheme Name               New SEBI              New Scheme Name                      Benchmark
         Category                                           Scheme Category

                                                                                   Kotak Standard Multicap
       Multi Cap Fund       Kotak Select Focus Fund          Multi Cap Fund                                                 Nifty 200
                                                                                            Fund

      Large Cap Fund                 Kotak 50                Large Cap Fund          Kotak Bluechip Fund                    Nifty 50

                                                             Large & Mid Cap      Kotak Equity Opportunities
       Multi Cap Fund          Kotak Opportunities                                                                          Nifty 200
                                                                  Fund                      Fund

      Mid and Small Cap   Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme        Mid Cap Fund       Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme       S&P BSE Mid small cap

       Mid Cap Fund               Kotak Midcap               Small cap Fund          Kotak Smallcap Fund               Nifty Small cap 50

        Contra Fund           Kotak Classic Equity             Contra Fund        Kotak India EQ Contra Fund                Nifty 100

                          Kotak Infrastructure & Economic                        Kotak Infrastructure & Economic     India Infrastructure Index
      Sectoral/Thematic                                      Sectoral/Thematic
                                    Reform Fund                                            Reform Fund             ( Customized index by IISL)

           ELSS                  Kotak Tax Saver                  ELSS                  Kotak Tax Saver                     Nifty 500

63
Debt Funds
        Existing Category            Existing Scheme Name               New SEBI Scheme                 New Scheme Name                          Benchmark
                     Debt Funds                                             Category
         Liquid-Conservative       Kotak Mahindra Liquid Scheme              Liquid Fund            Kotak Mahindra Liquid Scheme Nifty Liquid Fund Index

         Liquid-Aggressive            Kotak Floater Short Term           Money Market Fund           Kotak Money Market Scheme Nifty Money Market Index

         UST-Conservative          Kotak Treasury Advantage Fund       Ultra Short Duration Fund         Kotak Savings Fund         Nifty Ultra-short term Index

          UST-Aggressive              Kotak Low Duration Fund             Low Duration Fund            Kotak Low Duration Fund      Nifty Low Duration Index

     Short Duration Conservative       Kotak Bond Short Term             Short Duration Fund          Kotak Bond Short Term Fund    Nifty Short Duration Index

          Credit Risk Fund            Kotak Medium Term Fund            Medium Duration Fund           Kotak Medium Term Fund       Nifty Medium Duration Index
                                    Kotak Income Opportunities
          Credit Risk Fund                                                Credit Risk Fund              Kotak Credit Risk Fund      CRISIL AA Short Term Bond Index.
                                              Fund
                                      Kotak Mahindra Bond Unit                                                                      Nifty Medium to Long Duration Index
         Income-Aggressive                                           Medium to Long Duration Fund             Kotak Bond
                                             Scheme 99

      Short Duration Aggressive         Kotak Flexi Debt Fund               Dynamic Bond               Kotak Dynamic Bond Fund      CRISIL Corporate Bond Index
     UST-Aggressive (Corporate
                                     Kotak Corporate Bond Fund          Corporate Bond Fund           Kotak Corporate Bond Fund     CRISIL Corporate Bond Index
              Bond)
       Banking and PSU Fund        Kotak Banking & PSU Debt Fund        Banking and PSU Fund        Kotak Banking & PSU Debt Fund CRISIL Banking and PSU Debt Index

                                   Kotak Mahindra Gilt Unit Scheme                                  Kotak Mahindra Gilt Unit Scheme
              Gilt Fund                                                        Gilt Fund                                            Nifty All Duration G-Sec Index
                                         98-Investment Plan                                               98-Investment Plan

64
Hybrid Funds

            Hybrid  Funds Existing Scheme
             Existing                                   New SEBI              New Scheme                Benchmark
            Category            Name                     Scheme                  Name
                                                        Category
                                                                                                  NIFTY 50 Hybrid
               Balance          Kotak Balance       Aggressive Hybrid Fund Kotak Equity Hybrid Composite Debt 70:30
                                                                                                  Index
                                                                           Kotak Equity Savings 75% of Nifty 50 Arbitrage
            Equity Savings   Kotak Equity Savings       Equity Savings
                                                                                   Fund           index and 25% in Nifty 50
                                                     Conservative Hybrid                          CRISIL Hybrid 85+15 -
                 MIP              Kotak MIP                                 Kotak Debt Hybrid
                                                             Fund                                 Conservative Index
                             Kotak Equity Arbitrage                        Kotak Equity Arbitrage
            Arbitrage Fund                              Arbitrage Fund                            Nifty 50 Arbitrage
                                     Fund                                          Fund

                                  There is no change in ETF and Fund of Fund(FOF) Category

65
Why Accrual Funds ?
Default Risk - Very Low
- CRISIL’s average 1 year transition rates for long term ratings between 1988 and 2016
              Ratings        AAA             AA                 A                BBB                 BB                 B                 C           D
                AAA         97.37%        2.63%                0%                 0%                 0%                0%                0%           0%
                 AA          1.45%        93.22%             4.49%              0.49%             0.16%             0.03%              0.02%         0.04%
                 A             0          3.04%             88.91%              5.72%             1.48%             0.11%              0.23%         0.51%

            CRISIL FY16 Round Up                                                                             Our Comments
                                                                            •   Kotak AMC does not invest below A* category rating. Our robust
                                                                                monitoring ensures that we do not take exposure even in AA & A ratings
                                                                                from sensitive sectors
            • AAA rate firms have never ever defaulted.                     •   Moreover, to protect our interests , we ensure guarantee / mortgage /
            • The risk of default of AA is only 0.04% and                       collateral etc. where required
            • Risk of A is only 0.51%
                                                                            •   We look to invest in assets that have wide market acceptance
            • AAA continue to hold its rating 97% of times,                 •   This ensures that:
            • AA around 93% of times,                                       1. Our credit risk is lower than perceived
            • A holds the rating around 88% of times
                                                                            2. That we capture value with limited risk

66                                    *Unrated papers that we invest in is generally very low and has implied credit risk which is moderate to low
Story in Accruals

• The Fund Manager focuses on generating income from credit allocation rather than duration calls.

• Accruals funds generate performance by purchasing high yielding assets with relatively short duration.

• This provides investor with a relatively high yield with low NAV volatility

• Investors with 18-36 months horizon can look at investing in Accrual Funds

• Accrual funds like Kotak Income Opportunities / Kotak Medium term provide retail investors the potential to obtain high yields
 in the present condition.

67
Need to Watch Out for Opportunities in Hybrid
                        Space

68
Why Kotak Monthly Income Plan
       - Growing Through Asset Allocation

                                Particulars                                                                                       Nifty Level Net Assets in Rs Debt   Equity
                                Start in Kotak MIP with ~ 20% equity exposure                                                          10000                 10   8.5      1.5

                                Equity markets drop by 15% (represented by Nifty 50)                                                       8500                        9.78          8.50          1.28

                                Shift to Kotak Equity Savings Fund which has ~ 25% unhedged
                                equity                                                                                                     8500                        9.78          8.31          1.47

                                Equity markets drop by 15% (represented by Nifty 50)                                                       7225                        9.56          8.31          1.25

                                Shift to Kotak Balance with ~65% equity                                                                    7225                        9.56          3.34          6.21

                                Equity markets drop by 15% (represented by Nifty 50)                                                       6141                        8.62          3.34          5.28

                                Shift to Equity fund with ~100% equity such as Kotak Select
                                Focus                                                                                                      6141                        8.62              0         8.62

                                Equity markets go up by 20% (represented by Nifty 50)                                                      7370                                                  10.35

                                Shift Back to Kotak MIP with ~20% equity exposure                                                          7370                           10         7.93          2.07
The above illustration is only to explain how various types of funds can be considered for asset allocation in various equity market scenarios. This should not be construed as an advice and indication of performance of the mentioned
funds. The level of equity allocations mentioned are as per current scenario and only an approximation. The exact allocation to equity in various funds would be different and as per the asset allocation provided in the SID of each fund.

          For use of the Intermediaries of Kotak Mutual Fund. (For Internal Circulation Only)
   69
Tactical Asset Allocation Through MIP

      Kotak Monthly Income Plan can be used as a de-risking strategy
        o The scheme invests upto 20% in equity & equity related instruments & rest in debt instruments
        o Thus, an investor could consider Kotak MIP as a starting point for a moderate exposure to equity and use it as de-
           risking strategy by shifting into funds with higher equity allocations as valuations become attractive
        o The same has been explained below with an illustration

     Whom is the Fund Ideal for?

      Investors seeking regular income over short term
      Investors seeking income through fixed income securities and marginal gains from equities
      Investors with 1-3 year investment horizon
      Those who are unwilling to assume the full equity risk
      Those who have low appetite for credit risk

     For use of the Intermediaries of Kotak Mutual Fund. (For Internal Circulation Only)
70
Kotak Equity Saving Fund Performance

                                              Kotak Equity Savings Fund Performance(%)
        9          8.31                                                                                                       8.35
        8                                                                7.47
                                                                                                                                              7.00
        7
                                   6.26                                                   6.26
        6

        5

        4

        3

        2

        1

        0

                          1 Year                                                3 Years                                       Since Inception
                          Kotak Equity Savings Fund - Reg - Growth                    75% NIFTY 50 ARBITRAGE + 25% Nifty 50 TRI#
                 * Less than 1 year Simple Annualized returns, Greater than or Equal to 1 year Compound Annualized returns. Scheme in inception
                 since 13th Oct 2014 Performance as of 28th March 2018

                 Past performance may or may not sustain in the future

71                                                                                                                          Source: ICRA
Have You Noticed The Regular Dividends In Kotak Balance ?

                    Record Date     Rupees Per Unit   Dividend Yield
                      25-Apr-18         0.138             0.83%
                     26-Mar-18          0.138             0.84%
                     26-Feb-18           0.14             0.83%
                     26-Jan-18          0.145             0.83%
                     26-Dec-17           0.14             0.82%
                     27-Nov-17           0.14             0.82%
                      25-Oct-17          0.11             0.66%
                     28-Sept-17          0.11             0.65%
                     28-Aug-17           0.11             0.67%
                     25-July-17          0.12             0.70%
                     27-June-17          0.11             0.65%
                                                                          * After payment of the
                     25-May-17           0.11             0.65%           dividend, the per Unit
                     25-Apr- 17          0.11             0.66%           NAV falls to the extent of
                                                                          the payout and statutory
                     27-Mar- 17          0.11             0.67%           levy (if applicable)
                     27-Feb-17           0.11             0.69%           ^Past performance may
                                                                          or may not be sustained
                      25-Jan-17          0.11             0.69%           in the future. Dividends
                     26-Dec-16           0.11             0.69%           are subject to
                                                                          distributable surplus
                     01-Dec-16           0.11             0.69%           Inception Date:
                      26-Oct-16          0.08             0.49%           November 25, 1999
                                                                          All dividends are on face
                     27-Sep-16           0.08             0.49%           value of Rs.10 per unit
                     25- Aug-16          0.08             0.50%

72                                                                     Source: ICRA
Our Initiatives

68
Leading the Way
 First AMC in India to Sign the United Nations supported principles for Responsible Investment

                                                                                  Please click
                                                                         https://economictimes.indi
                                                                             atimes.com/mf/mf-
                                                                          news/kotak-mutual-fund-
                                                                             signs-un-supported-
                                                                          principles-for-responsible-
                                                                         investment/articleshow/63
                                                                                 881663.cms

                                                                          for the Newspaper article

Source: MINT
Distributor Initiated Transaction – Support to get your Business on the go

                                                                    Type of Transactions:
             Step 1
                          Enter Your Mobile

             Step 2                                  1. Existing Investors

                            Verify Via OTP               •   Lumpsum
                                                         •   SIP
             Step 3                                      •   STP
                                                         •   SWP
                      Select Type of Transaction
                                                         •   Redemption
             Step 4                                      •   Switch

                      Trigger Transaction for your
                                Investor             2. First Time Investors

                                                         •   Lumpsum
                                                         •   SIP
                                                         •   Zero Balance Folio

73
Go Digital – Make your Digital Footprint

74
Why Kotak Mutual Fund Is Different From Others

             We are Managing Your Trust First and Money second
             We are your Partner
             Disciplined Process
             Risk adjusted Return
             Believer in Warren Buffets Philosophy
                 Funds are like Kids. Don’t have more than what we
                  can manage
             Readily accessible for Knowledge and Service

77
Disclaimers & Disclosures

68
Performance (%) as on 28th March, 2018

              Scheme Inception date is 13/10/2014. Mr. Deepak Gupta has been managing the fund since 17/09/2014. Mr. Abhishek Bisen has been managing the
              fund since 17/09/2014.

             Different plans have different expense structure. The performance details provided herein are of regular plan. ^Past performance
             may or may not be sustained in future.*All payouts during the period have been reinvested in the units of the scheme at the then
             prevailing NAV. Returns > = 1 year: CAGR (Compounded Annualised Growth Rate). N.A stands for data not available. Note:
             Point to Point (PTP) Returns in INR shows the value of 10,000/- investment made at inception. Source: ICRA MFI Explorer. #
             Name of Scheme Benchmark. ## Name of Additional Benchmark.Please refer slide 76 for top 3 and bottom 3 schemes
             managed by & Mr. Abhishek Bisen.

79
Other Funds Managed by Mr. Deepak Gupta

               Top 3 Funds Managed by Mr. Deepak Gupta

                    Bottom 3 Funds Managed by Mr. Deepak
                    Gupta

80                              Performance (%) as on 28th March, 2018 Source: ICRA
Disclaimers & Risk Factors

•        The information contained in this (document) is extracted from different public sources. All reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the
         information contained herein is not misleading or untrue at the time of publication. This is for the information of the person to whom it is provided
         without any liability whatsoever on the part of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Co Ltd or any associated companies or any employee
         thereof.We are not soliciting any action based on this material and is for general information only.
•        Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

     About the scheme:

    78
Product Labeling

              Name of the Scheme             This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*                             Riskometer

                                        • long term capital growth
          Kotak Mahindra 50 Unit Scheme • Investment in portfolio of predominantly equity & equity related
                                          securities
                                        • long term capital growth
          Kotak Select Focus Fund       • Investment in portfolio of predominantly equity & equity related
                                          securities generally focused on a few selected sectors
                                        • long term capital growth
          Kotak Emerging Equity Scheme • Investment in equity & equity related securities predominantly in
                                          mid & small cap companies.
                                        • Long term capital growth
                                        • Investment in equity & equity related securities balanced with
          Kotak Balance Fund
                                          income generation by investing in debt & money market
                                          instruments
                                        • long term capital growth
          Kotak Opportunities           • Investment in portfolio of predominantly equity & equity related
                                          securities

                                          • income over a long investment horizon
          Kotak Gilt Investment           • Investments in sovereign securities issued by the Central and/or
                                            State Government(s) and / or reverse repos in such securities.

                                          • income over a long investment horizon
          Kotak Bond
                                            investment in debt & money market securities
                                          • Income over a medium term investment horizon
                                          • Investment in debt, government securities & money market
          Kotak Medium Term Fund
                                            instruments with a portfolio weighted average maturity
                                            between 3-7 years

          Kotak Low Duration Fund         • Regular Income over short term
          (Formerly known as PineBridge
          India Short Term Fund)          • Income by focusing on low duration securities

79              * Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them
Product Labeling

                 Name of the Scheme                 This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*                 Riskometer

                                                 • income from arbitrage opportunities in the equity market
            Kotak Equity Arbitrage Scheme
                                                 • investment in arbitrage opportunities in the cash & derivatives
                                                   segment of the equity market.

            Kotak Income Opportunities           • Income over a medium term investment horizon
            Fund                                 • Investment in debt & money market securities

            Kotak Treasury Advantage             • Income over a short term investment horizon
            Scheme                               • investment in debt & money market securities

            Kotak Infrastructure & Economic • long term capital growth
            Reform Fund                     • long term capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity
            (formerly known as                related instruments of companies contributing to infrastructure
            “PineBridge Infrastructure &      and economic development of India
            Economic Reform Fund”)

            Kotak Tax saver Fund                 • Long term capital growth with a 3 year lock in
                                                 • Investment in portfolio of predominantly equity & equity related
                                                   securities

           * Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them

80
Product Labeling

                   Name of the Scheme       This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*            Riskometer

                                           • Income from arbitrage opportunities in the equity market & long
                                             term capital growth
               Kotak Equity Savings Fund   • Investment predominantly in arbitrage opportunities in the cash
                                             & derivatives segment of the equity market and equity & equity
                                             related securities

                                           • income over a short to medium term investment horizon
               Kotak Banking and
                                           • •Investment in debt & money market securities of PSUs, Banks &
               PSU Debt Fund
                                             government securities

81
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