MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - Week Ahead Mar 8-14
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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Week
Ahead Mar 8-14
by Tom Lake
All timings subject to change.
Monday 8 March:
• European Parliament: Plenary session of the European Parliament takes place
virtually and in Brussels. Main event of the first day of the session is set to be the
votes on the waiving of immunity for MEP and former leader of Catalonia’s regional
government Carles Puigdemont and two of his colleagues. Should MEPs strip
Puigdemont and his associates of their immunity granted by virtue of being sitting
MEPs they will be at greater risk of being extradited to Spain on grounds of sedition
regarding the illegal 2017 Catalan independence referendum.
• United Kingdom: The first stage of the government’s roadmap of unwinding COVID-
19 restrictions in England comes into force, with schools re-opening and individuals
allowed to meet up one-on-one in a public park. Comes as the UK’s vaccination
programme continues at pace, but a marked slowdown in the decline in new cases is
causing some concern in Whitehall.
• UK-US: US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry in London for
meetings with PM Boris Johnson and COP26 President Alok Sharma ahead of this
year’s summit in Scotland. The one-on-one meetings came at the request of Kerry, a
former US Secretary of State and presidential candidate.
• Australia: Public holiday in several states. Labour Day in Victoria and Tasmania,
Adelaide Cup in South Australia, Canberra Day in ACT.
Tuesday 9 March:
• United States: House of Representatives is set to approve the American Rescue
Plan (ARP), the administration’s USD1.9trn COVID-19 relief package. This follows
the passage of the package in the Senate on Saturday following a lengthy vote-a-
rama as Republicans attempted to delay its passage. The House vote should be
relatively simple given the Democrats’ narrow majority. The ARP will then move to
President Joe Biden’s desk to be signed into law, achieving one of the primary aims
of the administration on coming to office. The package has been stripped of its
federal minimum wage hike to USD15/hour, but includes USD1,400 stimulus
cheques for those earning under USD75k/year.
• EU-US: US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry travels to Brussels for
meetings with EU leaders ahead of the COP26 summit in Glasgow, UK later this
year. With both EU and US talking up action on climate change, the discussions are
likely to focus on how to convince other states to enhance their actions in combatting
global warming.
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGWednesday 10 March:
• China: Conclusion of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference
(CPPCC), the junior half of the ‘two sessions’ meetings. CPPCC acts as an advisory
body to the senior National People’s Congress. The CPPCC seeks to act as a bridge
between the Communist Party and civil society groups such as women’s
organisations and bodies representing scientists or delegations from Hong Kong and
Macau. Conclusion of meeting likely to be marked by speech from a senior party
figure.
• European Union: Leaders of the EU institutions set to sign the joint declaration on
the Conference on the Future of Europe (CFE). The CFE, first mooted by French
President Emmanuel Macron in 2019, is intended to give EU citizens a greater say in
the policymaking and direction of the bloc. Critics have said the CFE will lack the
powers to truly alter the functioning of the EU based on citizens recommendations,
and the body’s somewhat convoluted leadership structure does little to assuage
these views.
Thursday 11 March:
• China: Following the conclusion of the CPPCC annual meeting on Wednesday, the
fourth session of the 13th National People’s Congress will conclude on Thursday. The
NPC heard on Friday of the growth target of over six percent for 2021, the first year
of the 14th five-year plan. The NPC also heard of plans to counter US sanctions and
of a new electoral system for Hong Kong that has sparked notable western criticism.
• United Kingdom: Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak due to appear before
the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee, his first such appearance since
last week’s Budget statement. Sunak can expect tough questioning on the lack of
investment in social care, the perceived funnelling of funds to Conservative-held
seats as part of the levelling-up fund for less well-off areas, and warnings from the
Institute for Fiscal Studies that the spending plans in the Budget will not be
achievable without ‘considerable pain’.
• United Nations: UN Human Rights Council set to discuss the situation in Myanmar.
Since the 1 February military coup, mass pro-democracy protests have been met
with an increasingly violent crackdown from the junta. The west has stepped up its
criticism of the regime, but so far the most influential foreign actor in Myanmar –
China – has yet to intervene significantly.
• Global: One-year anniversary of the WHO declaring the outbreak of COVID-19 a
pandemic. At that time 118,000 cases had caused 4,300 fatalities worldwide. This
compares to 116,902,939 cases causing 2,594,676 fatalities at the time of writing.
• Japan: 10th anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent
tsunami that killed over 15,000 and resulted in the Fukushima nuclear disaster.
Ceremonies to be held in areas most hard-hit.
Friday 12 March:
• United States: President Joe Biden is set to host a virtual meeting with the prime
ministers of Japan, Australia, and India under the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or
‘Quad’. Friday is not the set date for the meeting and it could take place over the
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGweekend. The Quad meetings are intended to facilitate greater cooperation between
the four countries to counter growing Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
The organisation has been dormant for a number of years, but the spike in Sino-
Indian tensions over the countries’ Himalayan border has seen India move away from
its historic non-aligned stance to one of seeking to work with DM powers in the region
to push back against Beijing.
Saturday 13 March:
• Australia: State election in Western Australia. Incumbent centre-left Labor
government holds a sizeable majority in the Western Australian Legislative
Assembly, and opinion polls indicate that Premier Mark McGowan’s party should
comfortably hold onto power. Low expectations for the opposition centre-right
Liberals have reached the stage where Liberal politicians at the federal level are
avoiding campaign trips to the state to avoid association with regional party leader
Zak Kirkup’s campaign.
Sunday 14 March:
• Germany: State elections in Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg. Both
elections will be watched closely to assess the performance of the centre-right
Christian Democratic Union. The CDU has yet to select a chancellor candidate to run
in the September federal election, with CDU chair Armin Laschet and Minister-
President of Bavaria Markus Söder the two potential picks. Poor performances from
the CDU in one or both of the state elections could see Laschet’s prospects of
succeeding Chancellor Angela Merkel begin to subside. Polls show the centre-left
Social Democrats leading in Rhineland-Palatinate and Greens ahead in Baden-
Württemberg (each party is currently the senior partner in the respective state
governments), with CDU support trailing off.
• United States: Deadline imposed by the administration for the passage of the
USD1.9trn ‘American Rescue Plan’ COVID-19 relief bill. Coincides with the date that
current pandemic jobless payments are set to expire. Around 4mn individuals on the
Pandemic Unemployment Assistance and the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment
Compensation programs will see their USD300/week boost to jobless payments end
if the bill is not passed by this point.
Rolling Risks
• Global: The spread of the 2019-nCoV, commonly known as ‘Coronavirus’ or COVID-
19 is the main story gaining political attention around the world at present. Starting in
the Chinese city of Wuhan, the disease has reached 213 countries or territories, with
116,902,939 confirmed cases causing 2,594,676 fatalities according to the Center for
Systems Science and Engineering at John Hopkins University as of 8 March. Travel
bans and movement lockdowns are in place in a number of countries, although some
countries are beginning to publish roadmaps for exiting these restrictions The rollout
of vaccines has provided some optimism, but the risk of ‘vaccine nationalism’
affecting the rollout and international relations remains present. So far 305.29mn
doses of vaccines have been administered, equating to 3.92 out of every 100 people
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Business Address – MNI Market News, 5th Floor, 69 Leadenhall Street, London, EC3A 2 BGglobally.
• Protest/Political Violence: There remains a significant risk of escalating political
violence in Myanmar, where many citizens have protested against the military coup
that took place in the country at the beginning of February. Mass protests greeted the
arrival of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny on his return to the country, and his
various court trials a number of charges could see anti-Putin activists returning to the
streets. The mass rioting seen in the US in 2020 as part of the Black Lives Matter
protests, and then in early 2021 in Washington, D.C. as part of a pro-Trump
insurrection at the Capitol has left deep wounds in the US social fabric, and there
remains the prospect of violence in US cities in 2021 from numerous groups and
factions both on the left and the right.
• India-China: Tensions between the world’s two most populous nations reached their
highest level in decades in June 2020 when a skirmish in the disputed Galwan
Valley, a remote Himalayan area along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), left 20
Indian and an unconfirmed number of Chinese troops dead. No guns are permitted
by either side along the LAC, meaning the skirmish involved brutal hand-to-hand
combat. Both sides have blamed the other for the escalation, the first deaths along
the border in over 40 years. The LAC between the two sides is not officially
demarcated, making the establishment of control difficult. Renewed clashes between
the sides, this time in the Sikkim region, broke out in January 2021, with troops on
both sides injured. Following these skirmishes, the drawdown of troops in the Ladakh
region in February by both sides is set to de-escalate tensions in the short-term.
• Trade War: The spread of COVID-19 has seen a number of governments around the
world issue strong criticism of the Chinese government for its perceived inaction in
effectively containing the initial outbreak of the virus. This in turn could see trade
relations worsen substantially if any tariffs or sanctions are imposed on China as a
punishment. The state of relations between China and many western economies has
deteriorated further following Beijing’s decision to implement a new national security
law on Hong Kong. Critics have argued the new law threatens Hong Kong’s ‘one
country, two systems’ political environment. The UK and EU, despite having reached
a Brexit deal at end-2020 are now adjusting to the new reality of separation. This has
seen some impediments at the UK’s borders with the EU, and there is a notable
chance that these disruptions will continue for some time. On the UK side there
seems to be a varying amount of confusion as to the new rules, while in EU member
states, border agencies appear to be as uncooperative as possible in an effort to
demonstrate the full impact to UK (and EU) citizens of the impact of leaving the bloc.
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