Monthly Economic Update - September 2020
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Monthly Economic Update
September 2020
Summary:
Hong Kong:
⚫ The economy may regain momentum after taking another hard hit amid virus resurgence. First, July’s trade
data indicates that HK’s trade sector may benefit from the accelerating regionalization and the resilient Asian
electronic value chain on the re-opening of global economies and China’s recovery. Second, consumer and
business sentiments may improve moderately as local pandemic shows signs of slowdown while the
government loosens the containment measures gradually and will unveil fresh relief funds soon. However,
economic recovery may remain sluggish. On one hand, local consumption’s rebound may be constrained by the
softening of labor market outlook and wage prospect as virus resurgence is set to push up jobless rate. On the
other hand, as long as pandemic uncertainty lingers, tourism, retail trade, hospitality, F&B, transport, etc. that
rely heavily on in-person interaction may face a bumpy road to recovery especially after fiscal stimulus expire.
⚫ The third wave of Covid-19 took a toll on property market. For commercial and retail property market, the
vacancy rate rose to multi-year high while price and rent plunged notably in particular in the core areas. To ease
the pressure, the HKMA raised the LTV ratio caps for mortgage loans on non-residential properties for the first
time since 2009. Though the move may lead to a slight rebound in transaction volume and ease landlord’s
financial hardship, it would not be a game changer given the lingering pandemic uncertainty, companies’ cost
control and the structural change in work arrangement and consumption behavior. For housing market, price
and transaction volume both declined in Aug but may rebound in the coming months amid lowered interest
rates, receding local pandemic as well as long-term imbalance between supply and demand. Still, the upside
may be capped by job uncertainty, lowered rental yield and the urgent needs of cashflows of some homeowners.
⚫ HKD spot continued to touch the strong end of the trading band amid a new wave of IPO activities and the
broad dollar weakness. HKMA has sold another HK$20.25 billion since August to defend the currency peg and
in turn pushed aggregate balance up to HK$206.3 billion. In the near term, HKD is expected to remain strong
due to a new wave of IPO activities including Ant Group’s US$10bn IPO together with the quarter-end. In the
medium term, with HIBOR remaining higher than its US counterpart and the Fed keeping rates at low level for
longer, we expect to see more capital inflows to hunt for yield. Meanwhile, the US-China tensions could prompt
more ADRs to launch HK secondary listings and in turn lure more equity inflows. Taken all together, USDHKD
spot may continue to touch 7.75 from time to time going forward and therefore aggregate balance may grow
further. On the back of increasing interbank liquidity, HKD rates are expected to come off eventually.
Macau:
⚫ The damaged economy (record contraction of 67.8% yoy in 2Q) may regain steam in 2H as the local pandemic
has remained well contained and the travel between Macau and Mainland China has been resuming in phases.
However, consumer and business sentiment may not rebound strongly as pandemic uncertainty persists while
relief measures are expiring. Meanwhile, as the two pillar industries rely heavily on in -person interaction and
external demand, full recovery is still far off before an effective vaccine is widely available. Specifically, gross
gaming revenue which dropped by over 90% yoy for the fifth consecutive month in August may rebound only
moderately in the coming months as access to Macau and the casinos is still subject to conditions. China’s sharp
economic slowdown as well as its tight grip on overseas money-laundering also remain a drag. In conclusion,
we expect gaming revenue to fall over 50% yoy and tip a recession of about 40% yoy for 2020.
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Hong Kong
Major economic indicators Chart 1. Hong Kong GDP
The final reading of 2Q GDP growth remains
unchanged at -9.0% yoy as the growth of private
consumption (-14.2% yoy) and exports of services (-
46.1% yoy) was revised up while the growth of fixed
assets investment (-21.4% yoy) and exports of goods
(-2.4% yoy) was revised lower. Moving into 2H 2020,
we expect the economic growth to remain mired in
negative territory as the ongoing containment
measures and the virus concerns are set to continue
hitting the local consumption, business sentiment
and exports of services. That said, we expect Chart 2. Hong Kong CPI
economic contraction to narrow in 2H as compared
to 1H given the low base effect and the global
benign recovery. In conclusion, we tip a recession of
6%-7% for 2020 depending on Covid-19
development while the government expects a
contraction of 6%-8%, down from the prior estimate
of -4% to -7%. On a positive note, the third round of
anti-epidemic fund will be unveiled soon.
Inflation turned negative for the first time since
February 2017 in July and reached the weakest level Chart 3. Hong Kong Unemployment
since late 2003 of -2.3%. This was mainly dragged
down by housing inflation (-4.8%, lowest since 2004)
amid government's payment of public housing
rentals and Hong Kong Housing Society’s rent wavier
for some tenants from July. Other than that, food
inflation slowed down to 0.8% amid high base effect
and promotion of restaurants due to strict
containment measures. Meanwhile, the extra MTR
fare rebate from July pushed transport inflation
down to record low of -3.7%. Moving forward, we
expect internal and external price pressured to Source: HK Census and Statistic Department
remain subdued. Adding on the ongoing relief
measures and the high base effect associated with
last year’s pork shortage, we expect overall inflation
to stay negative in the coming months. The
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Hong Kong
Major economic indicators
government cut the headline inflation forecast from
1.4% to 0.8% while our forecast is also revised down
to 0.3% for 2020.
Unemployment rate for the three months to July
unexpectedly fell to 6.1% from 2Q’s 6.2%. The
underemployment rate also dropped by 0.2
percentage point to 3.5%. Besides, the decline of
total employment and labor force narrowed to 5.7%
yoy and 2.4% yoy respectively. The improvement in
the labor market could be attributed to the relief
measures, the receded local pandemic, the eased
social distancing measures and the re-opening of
global economy during the period. In particular, the
unemployment rate of trade, transportation,
financial services and public sector dropped by 0.1%
to 0.2%. By contrast, for the hardest-hit sectors, the
jobless rate continued to tick up. For example, the
jobless rate of the consumption- and tourism-
related sectors rose to 10.8% (the highest since
SARS outbreak) while that of the construction sector
increased to 11.3% (the highest since 2Q 2009).
Going forward, given the virus resurgence in July
and the resultant strictest containment measures
yet, we expect to see a rebound in overall jobless
rate towards or even above 7%. On a positive note,
as some of the sectors like financial services and
public sector have been less affected by the Covid-
19 shock while the relief measures continue to save
jobs, we expect the overall jobless rate will increase
at a moderate rate and will not touch the historical
high of 8.5%. That said, wage prospects remain
clouded as household income fell sharply in 2Q.
Given the softening labor market and the pandemic
uncertainty, local consumption may remain
subdued and in turn dent business sentiment.
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Hong Kong
Major economic indicators Chart 4. Hong Kong Exports and Imports
Exports and imports continued to drop by 3% yoy
and 3.4% yoy respectively in July. Zooming in, we see
two bright spots in the trade data. First, total
exports to Asia as a whole grew for the second
consecutive month by 0.6% yoy. This reflects the
trend of regionalization which might have
accelerated amid US-China tension and Covid-19
outbreak. Second, exports and imports of electrical
machinery continued to grow. This suggests that
Asian electronic value chain remained resilient. In
conclusion, it reinforces our view that the Hong Chart 5. Hong Kong Retail Sales
Kong could continue to play its role as the key re-
export port connecting China and the rest of Asia
despite that the US revoked HK’s special trading
status. That said, in the near term, the outlook of
the trade sector remains clouded by the overall
subdued demand as exports and imports with other
major partners showed sharp decline. US-China
tensions could also remain a potential drag.
Retail sales surprised on the upside with the decline
narrowing further from 24.8% yoy in June to 23.1%
yoy in July amid low base effect. The better-than- Chart 6. Hong Kong Retail Sales by Segments
expected data could also be attributed to the strong
growth in the sales of commodities in supermarkets
(+26.5% yoy), meat (+15% yoy) and fresh fruits and
vegetables (+19% yoy) amid increasing preference
to stay at home due to virus resurgence. However,
sales of other retail outlets continued to drop
notably given stalling tourism and strict
containment measures. Going forward, given the
low base effect and the expectedly gradual easing of
containment measures, the decline of retail sales
may keep narrowing. However, as several waves of Source: HK Census and Statistic Department, Rating &
Covid-19 took a heavy toll on the labor market and Valuation Department
the relief measures expire gradually, retail sales may
remain sluggish and fall over 20% in 2020.
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Hong Kong
Housing market Chart 1. Hong Kong Housing Price Index &
Transaction Volume
CCL index which tracks the secondary housing price
dropped by 1.2% on a weekly basis as of 23rd August.
According to the Rating and Valuation Department,
housing price index fell by 0.5% mom or 2.2% yoy in
July. Housing transaction volume dropped for the
second consecutive month by 28.9% mom to 4358
units in August.
The retreat in housing market could be attributed to
several unfavorable factors. First, subdued
investment demand given the lowered rental yield.
Housing rental index fell for the 10th consecutive Chart 2. Hong Kong Residential Price Index
month by 8.7% yoy in July as travel restrictions
banned the entry of migrant workers and foreign
students and in turn dented demand in the housing
rental market. Second, homeowners in urgent need
for cashflows such as businessowners appeared to
have increasingly sold their residential properties at
deep discounted price. The price index of larger
units (above 100sq.m.) fell for the sixth consecutive
month by 3.3% yoy in July. Third, the softening
labor market outlook and wage prospects as well as
the renewed virus concerns may have dented
housing demand. Chart 3. Hong Kong Housing Completion and
Housing Start
Going forward, once the local pandemic recedes
and the containment measures are eased, we
expect to see moderate rebound in the housing
market given the supportive measures, lowered
interest rates, the prospect of tight housing supply
and the pent-up demand from the less affected
higher-income group. However, the upside may
remain capped by the unfavorable factors
mentioned above. In conclusion, we expect housing
price index (+1.5% YTD in July) to drop up to 5% yoy
by end of this year. Source: Rating and Valuation Department, Land
Registry, Buildings Department
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Hong Kong
Financial sector Chart 1. HK Deposits Growth
Total loans and advances rose by 1.7% mom, led by
the loans for use in HK (excluding trade finance)
which grew by 2.6% mom or 8.7% yoy. That said,
excluding IPO loans, total loans and advances would
have increase only by 0.1% mom. In other words,
local loan demand may have remained weak amid
virus resurgence. On the other hand, loans for use
outside of HK increased by 0.1% mom or 6.4% yoy
given the shifting of PBOC’s monetary stance which
made onshore financing relatively costly. On
deposits front, total deposits grew by 6.3% yoy (the Chart 2. HK Loans Growth
strongest since April 2018) or 2.7% mom in July.
Excluding deposits growth driven by IPO activities,
total deposits and HKD deposits would have grown
by 1.5% and 1.8% on monthly basis respectively,
which is still strong due to the strong equity inflows
in July and the continuously upbeat investment
sentiments. In particular, HKD CASA deposits also
surged by 10.8% mom. As a result, the share of HKD
CASA deposits in total HKD deposits rose to 61.9%,
the highest since June 2018.
Moving ahead, another wave of hot IPOs is set to Chart 3. HKD Deposits Composition
keep spurring loans and deposits growth. That said,
as overall loan demand remains subdued and banks
remain cautious, we expect total loans and
advances (+7.4% yoy) to show single-digit growth
this year. In contrast, total deposits especially HKD
CASA deposits may continue to see relatively strong
growth amid the upbeat sentiment and expected
equity inflows on global flushed liquidity. As such,
HKD LDR (85% in July) may fall further towards 80%
while the share of HKD CASA deposits in total HKD
deposits may rise further to above 60% in the short Source: HKMA
to medium term. Though this suggests easing
funding pressure on banks, it may also lead to
compressed net-interest-margin in the near term.
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Macau
Major economic indicators Chart 1. Macau GDP
2Q economic contraction deepened to a record
67.8% yoy as travel restrictions brought the two
pillar industries gaming and tourism to an almost
standstill. Meanwhile, the positive factors were
overshadowed, including strong relief measures,
receded local pandemic and the resumption of
economic activities. Moving into 2H, we do expect
the damaged economy to regain steam as the local
pandemic has remained well contained and the
travel between Macau and Mainland China has
been resuming in phases. However, local Chart 2. Macau GDP & Gaming Revenue
consumption’s rebound may be constrained by the
softening labor market and wage prospects.
Business sentiment may also remain muted in
anticipation of subdued demand. On the other hand,
as the two pillar industries rely heavily on in-person
interaction and external demand, full recovery is still
far off before an effective vaccine is widely available.
In conclusion, though economic contraction may
narrow in 2H, the recovery would be a bumpy ride.
Since the GDP has shrunk by 58.2% yoy in 1H, we tip
a recession of about 40% yoy for 2020 as a whole.
Chart 3. Macau CPI
Inflation decelerated to 0.27% in July, the weakest
since January 2010. For the two most-heavily-
weighted items, food inflation slowed down further
to 3.21% (the weakest since last May) while housing
inflation rebounded slightly to 0.38%. Adding to the
downward pressure on overall inflation were the
deeper deflation of clothing & footwear (-7.74%),
communication (-11.39%) and recreation & culture
(-10.65%), respectively due to sales promotions for
clothing, lower charges for telecommunication
services and decreasing charges for package tours. Source: DICJ, DSEC
Moving forward, due to the high base amid last
year’s pork shortage, food inflation is set to
decelerate. Besides, as neither gaming nor tourism
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Macau
Major economic indicators Chart 4. Macau Unemployment
is expected to see strong rebound any time soon,
housing inflation may remain muted amid weak
demand in housing rental market with a decreasing
number of non-local workers. Furthermore, given
the murky labor market and economic outlook, both
local consumption and imported inflation are
expected to remain sluggish. As such, it is possible
for overall inflation to fall into negative territory
over the coming months and print around 1% for
2020 as a whole. Source: DSEC
Unemployment rate rose from 2.5% to 2.7% during
May to July, the highest level since 3Q 2011. During
the same period, the employed population
dropped to 395.4k from 401.9k amid the decrease
in non-local workers living in Macau. Other than the
construction sector, all major sectors showed
deterioration in the unemployment. In particular,
the employed population of gaming sector
continued to drop by 3.3% mom while that of
wholesale and retail trade (-4.5% mom) and hotels,
restaurants and similar activities (-4.3% mom)
retreated. This was mainly attributed to the travel
restrictions which brought the gaming and tourism
to an almost standstill.
Moving into the coming three-month period, the
jobless rate may edge up as relief measures expire
gradually. On a positive note, the labor market may
improve in 4Q 2020 as the worst may be over for the
major sectors on the back of China’s phased
resumption of visa approvals to Macau from mid-
August. However, jobless rate may not return to the
pre-virus levels any time soon as full recovery
remains far off for Macau’s major sectors that rely
heavily on in-person interaction and external
demand.
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Macau
Gaming and tourism sectors Chart 1. Macau Visitor Arrivals
Visitor arrivals increased notably by 228.1% mom in
July owing to the travel bubble formed between
Mainland China and Macau from 15th July. However,
on a yearly basis, the number of visitor arrivals
plunged over 90% for the sixth straight month by
97.9% yoy. Likewise, the number of hotel guests
decreased for the ninth consecutive month by
87.9% yoy in July while hotel occupancy rate fell by
another 81 percentage points year-on-year to 12.1%.
Worse still, gross gaming revenue dropped by over
90% yoy for the fifth consecutive month by 94.5% Chart 2. Macau Gaming Revenue
yoy to MOP1.33 billion in August despite the travel
bubble formed between Mainland China and Macau
from mid-July. This means that both tourism and
gaming sector remained at an almost standstill.
On a positive note, with visa approvals to Macau
resumed for the residents of Guangdong and those
of the rest of China respectively from late August
and late September, we expect gaming revenue to
rebound in the coming months. The pent-up
traveling demand of Mainlanders, the National Day
Holiday effect and the government’s promotional Chart 3. Macau Gaming Revenue by Segment
campaign could provide impetus for both tourism
and gaming sectors as well.
However, there could still be several factors
hindering the recovery of both tourism and gaming
sectors. First, China’s slowdown and softening labor
market may dent casual gambling demand and
make the pent-up traveling demand unsustainable.
Second, before an effective vaccine is widely
available, access to Macau and the gaming center
may still be subject to conditions while the Source: DSEC, DICJ
transportation between Macau and Mainland China
may not resume normalcy. Third, as China tightens
the grip on capital outflows to crack down on
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Macau
Gaming and tourism sectors Chart 4. Macau Retail Sales
overseas money-laundering, tight liquidity in Macau
may constrain the rebound in VIP segment’s
revenue. In conclusion, we hold onto our view that
gaming revenue (-81.6% yoy during the first eight
months) will plunge over 50% yoy in 2020.
Elsewhere, due to near-standstill tourism, total
spending of visitors and visitor spending per capita
plunged by 70.4% yoy and 4.8% yoy respectively in
1Q) during the rest of this year. Retail sales dropped
for the second consecutive quarter by a record Chart 5. Macau Retail Sales by Major Categories
61.3% yoy in 2Q to the lowest since 4Q 2009 of
MOP6.9 billion. Except sales of goods in
supermarket (+13.7% yoy), sales of all other outlets
dropped. The decrease in the sales of motorcycles,
parts and accessories (-1% yoy) as well as household
appliances (-29.7% yoy) moderated, probably due to
the receded local pandemic, the relief measures and
the pent-up demand. However, local demand
remained tepid amid soft labor market conditions
and lingering virus concerns. Besides, the decline
widened notably with regard to the sales of Watches, Source: DSEC
Clocks & Jewellery (-87.3% yoy), good in
Department Stores (-71.7% yoy), Adults’ Clothing (-
71.2% yoy) and Leather Goods (-72.8% yoy). This
was mainly attributed to the stalling inbound
tourism. Going forward, despite the gradual
resumption of travel between Macau and Mainland
China, we are not optimist about the outlook of the
retail sector. On one hand, as relief measures are not
unlimited and pent-up demand will wane,
household spending may remain tepid amid the still
bleak outlook of the economy and the labor market.
On the other hand, as tourism is unlikely to see full
recovery in the coming year and external demand
remains muted, tourist spending may also be
sluggish.
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Macau
Housing market Chart 1. Macau New RML Approval & Housing
Transaction
Housing transaction growth (7.3% yoy in June)
returned to the positive territory for the first time
since December 2019. During the same month,
approved new residential mortgage loans
increased by 70.5% mom to MOP4.6 billion. Also
notable is that local homebuyers who hold more
than one flat accounted for 2.9% of total local
homebuyers in terms of transaction volume in June,
up from 1.9% in May.
The rebound in housing market could be attributed
to upbeat investment sentiments, lowered interest Chart 2. Macau Housing Start & Housing
rates, long-term undersupply of residential property Completion
and sweeteners offered by developers. More
importantly, as the local pandemic was largely
under control, this helped the local economic
activities including home purchases to resume
normality.
However, average housing price dropped by 10.6%
yoy or 4.1% mom to MOP101,986/square meter in
June. Besides, first-home local buyers accounted for
84.6% of total local homebuyers in terms of
transaction volume in June, down from 85.3% in Chart 3. Macau Housing Transaction Price &
May. This group of buyers who have been the main Transaction Volume
driver of housing market growth may not lend
strong support to the housing market rally due to
the softening labor market outlook (2Q
unemployment rate of local residents rose to the
highest since 2010) and the bleak economic outlook.
On the other hand, the speculative demand may
remain suppressed by the housing control measure.
In conclusion, the upside of transaction volume may
be capped while average housing price may
continue to see moderate year-on-year decline in
the coming months. Source: AMCM, DSEC, Macau Financial Services Bureau
Monthly Economic Update
September 2020Disclaimer: provided herein is intended for general information
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September 2020financial, legal and/or tax advice from professional may also be related to, and receive fees from,
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Monthly Economic Update
September 2020viruses. The Bank therefore does not accept liability
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Dick S.N. Yu
DickSNYu@ocbcw h.com; +852-2852-5245
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September 2020You can also read
