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Nest Egg News February 2015
Expect the unexpected!
Welcome to 2015 ... already it feels different doesn’t it? markets which makes it even harder than usual to know
The choppy start to the year has been something of a rude where to invest for optimal returns.
awakening for investors who enjoyed a relatively smooth
2014. In our December newsletter last year we talked about The other big contributor to volatility year-to-date has been
sitting back and doing nothing because markets looked the slump in commodity prices. We’ve all heard lots about
set to keep on keeping on. This wasn’t a glib comment – the oil price which has actually been falling for a long time
barring a few tumultuous weeks, last year was relatively calm now as the world’s economy has lost momentum. It’s not
(apparently some 20% calmer than “normal” according to just that demand for oil and other commodities has fallen, in
statisticians). Yet here we are in the early weeks of 2015 and part because China is consuming less than it used to; there
already we’ve faced a market that has been just as choppy as has been significant investment in commodity production in
the worst weeks of last year. recent years and as fresh supply comes on the market, it is
serving to keep a lid on commodity prices.
Markets are in a state of flux because we have started the
year, as indeed we do every year, with a variety of things What does the end of the commodity cycle mean to
we feel we should be nervous about. On top of the usual markets? Well, as always there are winners and losers.
worries (like geopolitical tension, terrorism and low economic Obviously commodity exporters will have to find other ways
growth) January featured two surprising developments – to make money. But consumers will benefit from lower prices
divergent behaviour by policy makers (such as the Swiss for all manner of products and services, and manufacturers
central bank’s surprise decision to stop pegging the franc’s will enjoy lower input prices so will either be able to increase
exchange rate to the Euro) and the end of the commodity profitability or sell their products cheaper, both positive
super-cycle. outcomes. Meantime, commodity prices will likely remain
volatile – oil prices can bounce just as easily as they fall – and
Monetary policy divergence is an interesting one. For markets will react accordingly.
years, markets have focused on the US Federal Reserve’s
policy, with every decision analysed and responded to by While markets have encountered a few new uncertainties at
market participants around the globe. This fixation was the start of this year, they are still just risks to be managed
understandable because every one of the Fed’s policy rather than fundamental game-changers for economies
decisions impacted the Holy Grail or anchor of asset or markets. The US economy is doing better than most
valuations, the risk-free rate. expected, and elsewhere economies are generally growing
at a fairly good rate. There are pockets, namely Japan and
Uncertainty about movements in the risk-free rate had Europe, which are doing less well and they of course will get
implications across the universe of fixed interest assets and all the attention. But the base case scenario for 2015 remains
shares (not to mention property, gold, and indeed all assets) positive.
as well as the global economy at large. While the Fed’s
quantitative easing (QE) programme dominated markets for Yes, we should expect the unexpected, but to quote an
a long time, and only history will confirm for sure whether it unnamed philosopher I stumbled on recently, we will also
was successful, it at least brought calm to investors because do well to “believe the unbelievable and aim to achieve the
the policy and its economic impact became relatively unachievable”.
predictable. Now of course, the Fed has put an end to Carmel Fisher
QE and is relying on the economy to maintain its own Managing Director
momentum.
Meantime, the European Central Bank is embarking on its
own QE programme in order to avoid deflation, and the
Bank of Japan and central banks in China, India and Turkey
are following suit or expected to in the coming year. The
divergent monetary policies are causing havoc with currency
Your KiwiSaver Portfolios
Highlights and Lowlights
»» European share markets rebounded strongly over the month in response to the European
Central Bank announcement of a quantitative easing programme.
»» The negative impact of a strengthening US dollar on US corporate earnings is starting to
be felt. Both Plantronics and UPS guided earnings expectations down due to US currency
strength and we expect this to be a common theme over the reporting period.
»» The unabating global hunt for yield continued to give strong support to bond prices,
property and utilities companies and those companies with a strong dividend yield.
»» The majority of our Australian companies did well over January led by outstanding
performances from Credit Corp (+20%) as its consumer lending business ramped up and
ResMed (+16%) as it won share on successful new product launches. Sharp recoveries in
the shares of Tox (+22%) and Flight Centre (+16%) also helped.
»» Closer to home, Summerset (+11.9%) was rewarded by investors for achieving record sales
of occupation rights during the December quarter and Delegat’s Group (+4.8%) rose on
the back of a weaker NZ dollar positively impacting its export earnings. Kathmandu has
continued to struggle in Australia, where sales have been weak. This has had a significant
adverse effect on margins, particularly over the key Christmas period, and we are reviewing
our position in the company.
Postcard from Beijing
By Roger Garrett
Senior Portfolio Manager, International Equities
David McLeish, Ashley Gardyne and I travelled to China
in early January to get an “on-the-ground” update on
China, meeting with a range of current and potential
portfolio companies. While poor air quality and traffic
congestion remain a regular feature of the Chinese
landscape, a more downbeat view by many commentators
on the outlook for Chinese growth contributed to the grey
atmosphere. After a sustained period of slowdown there
is now a growing realisation that the Chinese economy
lending to retail clients which has encouraged leveraged
is permanently transitioning to a lower growth rate.
investment in the local share market (no coincidence the
The days of reading about 12% growth are over; albeit
local market was so strong in 2014, rising over 50%) and
that with growth forecast at 6.8% in 2015, China still has
also helped fuel consumption.
enviable momentum. What interests us most though is the
changing face of Chinese growth. Adjusting to slower growth is always challenging but
there are pockets of growth, especially in the technology
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s aggressive anti-corruption
and retail sectors, that we’re excited about and following
campaign appears to be gathering momentum with
closely. Consumption is heralded as an important growth
corruption charges being laid against very senior Communist
driver as investment spending wanes and Chinese
party members. Whether it is an attempt to strengthen his
consumers are embracing the digital trend. Online retail is
power base or is a bona-fide programme to eliminate corrupt
expected to grow in excess of 25% p.a over the next three
practices in China, this climate of fear has paralysed local
years, over three times faster than overall retail growth.
government infrastructure spending with the money flow
This is being driven by the increasing use of mobile to
all but dried up. Many significant projects are well behind
undertake transactions with China expected to become
schedule and you only need to look back a few years to recall
the largest m-commerce market in the world in 2015. The
how much infrastructure spending stimulated the Chinese
digital ecosystem (product research, discovery, transaction
economy post-GFC.
and feedback) is maturing in China with consumers heavily
This logjam has had a flow-on effect to the business models influenced by feedback through social media. This system
of local banks and financial institutions that we visited. Over continues to be dominated by three players – Baidu
the last 12 months, they have significantly increased their in internet search, Alibaba in distribution and Tencent
in social media and these companies remain potential
investments for us.
2 FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS
testament to the consumer desire to have things now even if
future prices are almost certain to be lower.
For share market investors, selecting the right companies
becomes more important. Deflation affects companies
differently and those with the strongest pricing power are
What does it mean for investors when able to grow their businesses even when prices are declining.
consumer prices are falling? In share portfolios we consider the long-term trends in an
industry and look for companies with growing businesses
By Mark Brighouse (Chief Investment Officer) and David and resilient prices.
McLeish (Senior Portfolio Manager, Fixed Interest)
For fixed interest investors, falling consumer prices can cause
Over the final three months of last year the price of petrol dramatic changes in the investing landscape. When we look
notably fell and miscellaneous items like shampoo, men’s at the yields on government bonds we can find at least ten
socks and cling food wrap also declined in price. These are countries whose bonds are trading on negative yields. That is
just some of the selected items that make up the Consumer to say, those who buy these bonds and hold them to maturity
Price Index (CPI) which saw a 0.2% decline over the quarter will get back less than they paid for them, even after taking
and is likely to also show a decline over the early part of 2015. into consideration the interest they receive. It seems strange
Falling consumer prices are termed “deflation” and this that investors would be lining up to get less money back
has become a global trend with many countries showing than they put in, but this is what negative yields mean. One
falling CPI numbers (especially in Europe). On the face of it, possible reason is that investors are so cautious that they
lower prices should be a good thing but many experts are are prepared to pay have the government safeguard their
concerned that it is potentially a greater evil for the broader savings. However, the gradual improvements we are seeing
economy than rising prices. in confidence about the economy suggest that pessimism is
not the reason for negative yields.
The fear is that genuine, broad-based deflation would cause
consumers to delay all kinds of spending. As demand slows, Instead it looks as though deflation concerns may very well
businesses would strike difficulties and some may default on be driving investors’ decisions. In the world where the price
their loans, lay off staff orpostpone capital spending. of goods and services are getting cheaper day by day the
purchasing power of your money is improving even for those
However, it seems that consumers are not that keen to delay investors buying bonds on negative yields. After all, in an
spending even when faced with a high likelihood of lower environment where prices are falling, you are able to buy
prices in future. The queues to buy new digital devices are more with each dollar tomorrow than you could have today.
An Apple a day
By Carmel Fisher - Managing Director
Forget the debate over whether iPhones are better than
androids – that argument will continue for years. The real
debate is whether there will ever be a time when selling
your Apple shares makes sense. There have been so many
potential catalysts to end Apple’s dream run – the death
of Steve Jobs, the plateauing of iPad sales, the increasing
popularity of Samsung products, criticism over Apple’s
pricing, the security breach targeting celebrities, and the
bendy iPhone 6 – but the company and its shares keep
performing. The analyst who in 2013 said “Apple is not impressive. Many companies would kill to have Apple’s
a viable business model: it is, like Jobs, an unrepeatable commercial footprint - 74.5m iPhones sold in three months,
corporate freak show” must want to eat his words. which equates to more than 34,000 phones an hour, 567 per
minute or 9.4 units a second!
Apple Inc’s latest quarterly results surpassed even the most
optimistic expectations. The company reported record- The Apple share price has rallied 40% in the past year and
breaking earnings of US$18 billion for the three months to lifted a further 7% after the result. You’d think that some
December 2014, on revenue of US$74.6 billion. Analysts investors would want to take some money off the table after
had expected Apple to achieve revenue of US$67.69 billion, its incredible run. But a quick Google search of “Buy Apple
and many were skeptical the company would get there. The shares” yielded 104 million results versus just 50 million for
company’s performance was especially impressive in China, “Sell Apple shares”. And most of the Sell Apple results were
where it was the top smartphone seller during the quarter, from a few years back. This company and stock seem, at least
with revenue from greater China, which includes Taiwan and for the moment, to be able to keep on keeping on.
Hong Kong, rising 70% during the quarter, to $16.1 billion.
For those of you wanting a small piece (or should that be
That means that the region is close to overtaking Europe as
slice) of the Apple, we have an exposure to the company
Apple’s second-biggest market.
through our Investment Series range. Do contact us if you
For a successful company that already has a significant would like to know more.
market share to achieve increased sales, at a higher price
and with a larger profit margin on those sales is seriously
FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS 3
A bird’s eye view
This month, we’d like to introduce a recent addition
to our International portfolios, Adidas AG.
Adidas is a company that requires little introduction (not Why is Adidas an interesting opportunity?
least because it sponsors the All Blacks). It is the largest Adidas is a global brand and well managed company
manufacturer of sportswear and sporting equipment in with good underlying growth, but the share price
Europe and the second largest globally with 12% market has plummeted (down 37% in 2014) due to a perfect
share, just behind Nike (15%) but well above the next tier storm of factors which we believe are largely outside
of companies such as Under Armour and Puma which management’s control.
have less than 5% market share.
Firstly, the Ukrainian conflict and subsequent sanctions on
Its major brands include Adidas, Reebok and TaylorMade. Russia have materially impacted their Eastern European
The core Adidas brand includes Sports Performance operations, which make up 13% of revenue and 15%
which is focussed on football, basketball and running of operating profit. Secondly, simultaneous product
and whose key sponsorships include Lionel Messi and launches in golfing equipment by TaylorMade and its
Manchester United. Reebok was acquired in 2006 by peers caused temporary overstocking and subsequent
Adidas, who have subsequently focussed on refreshing price discounting. Finally, the strength of the Euro against
and repositioning it as an American inspired fitness and the USD and emerging market currencies similarly
training brand with particular focus on women, youth provided a significant earnings headwind. Some of these
and casual sportswear. TaylorMade is a leading golf club factors have now started to reverse, while Adidas have
manufacturer, specialising in metal woods and irons and signalled a more aggressive marketing approach in the
encompassing apparel (includes Ashworth), footwear and lucrative US market.
accessories.
A resolution in the Ukrainian conflict is unforecastable
in our opinion but conditions are gradually improving
in the golfing market and the recent Euro weakness will
provide a meaningful boost to earnings. Despite Adidas’
underlying business strengths, and a gradual reversal of
the temporary headwinds we believe the current share
price assumes no recovery in Adidas profitability. This is
overly pessimistic. While Adidas still faces a number of
challenges, at the current price it presents a compelling
long-term investment opportunity and we have been very
happy to initiate a holding on weakness.
4 FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS
KiwiSaver classroom
Jargon buster
While we try and keep our communications simple to
understand, sometimes investment lingo can sneak in. We
continue our series breaking down some of that jargon. This
month, we write about diversification.
As a fundamental investing concept, diversification is a word
that is regularly mentioned in articles or commentary relating
to investing. The idea behind diversification can be simply
explained as “not putting all of your eggs in one basket”.
Diversification lessens the impact of poor performance
by any one part of your investment portfolio, potentially
providing smoother returns. The Global Industry Classification Standards identifies
10 sectors in the share market. They are financials,
While that explanation sounds understandable enough,
information technology, health care, consumer discretionary,
there can be a tendency for diversification to be considered
industrials, consumer staples, energy, materials, utilities, and
too simplistically.
telecommunication services. Owning shares in Mighty River
Diversification needs to be thought about as relating to Power and Meridian may have generated great returns in
different sorts of investments, rather than just a whole 2014 but provided exposure to only one of the 10 sectors.
bunch of investments. Six rental properties do not make a Had they performed badly in 2014, owning shares in one of
diversified property portfolio, even if they are in different the other nine sectors might have helped mitigate the risk.
suburbs.
Lastly, there is asset class diversification which refers to the
Successful investors will aim for geographical, sector and mix of risk and return you are exposed to. Your portfolio
asset class diversification and this is the approach that we should have a mix of lower risk but lower return assets such
take when investing your KiwiSaver savings. as cash and bonds and higher risk but potentially higher
return assets such as shares and property. Our KiwiSaver
While we invest in New Zealand companies that you are Funds have a different combination of these assets that
familiar with, we also invest in Australia and all over the reflect the different investing timeframes and appetite for risk
world. By investing outside of New Zealand we are able to of members.
access investment opportunities for you that don’t exist here
and we can access much larger markets. For example, our The current geographical and asset class mix of your
KiwiSaver Growth Fund invests across companies located in KiwiSaver funds are regularly updated in our quarterly
15 different countries – you can learn more about them here disclosure statements which can be viewed here
https://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz/kiwisaver-portfolio. https://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz/periodic-reporting.
Getting to know ... an inspirational Kiwi, Mal Law
Every now and again we come across ordinary Kiwis doing Please help us help this inspiring Kiwi to pull off the
truly awesome things that inspire us. On the 7th of February unthinkable. If you’d like to lend a hand, or learn more about
2015 Kiwi adventurer Mal Law set out on an epic challenge of this epic challenge and the man himself, visit our website
unprecedented proportions. His twin goals were to: www.fisherfunds.co.nz/community. Fisher Funds will match all
donations up to a total of $5,000.
»» Climb 50 peaks and run the equivalent of 50 off-road
marathons in the space of just 50 days; and We really appreciate your support!
»» Raise at least $250,000 for the Mental Health
Foundation of NZ
Fisher Funds is excited to be part of this journey with Mal
and are pleased to be the sponsor for Day 48 of the High
Five-0 Challenge on March 26, 2015 in the Waitakere Ranges.
Three of the Fisher Funds team (Frank Jasper, James
Paterson and Michael Raynes – seen training in the picture)
are running alongside Mal to help get him through the day.
The cause Mal is supporting, The Mental Health Foundation
of New Zealand, is one that truly deserves our support.
Everyone knows someone who has been affected by mental
health issues - it is a problem that will touch all of us in
some way at some stage in our lives. This is a chance to do
something meaningful to help.
FISHER FUNDS
NEST EGG NEWS 5
Fund Facts
Fund Performance to 31 January 2015
Fund After fees & Unit price Since fund Date of
1 month 3 months 12 months 2 years* 3 years* 5 years*
before-tax returns ($) inception* inception
Growth 1.5802 3.1% 3.7% 9.9% 13.0% 14.3% 8.6% 6.4% 1/10/2007
Balanced** 2.8% 3.5% 9.3% 10.0% 10.9% 7.4% 8.1% 12/06/2009
Conservative 1.3689 2.5% 3.4% 8.7% 7.7% 7.9% 6.4% 5.7% 1/06/2009
* Annualised return before tax and after fees
** The Fisher Funds KiwiSaver Scheme does not have a separate Balanced Fund. A Balanced investment strategy is available and reflects a 55% weighting in our Conservative
KiwiSaver Fund and a 45% weighting in our Growth KiwiSaver Fund. This option has only been available since the launch of the Conservative KiwiSaver Fund in June 2009.
The above returns are based on the percentage change in the unit price of the fund for the period specified, they are not the returns individual investors will receive as this will
depend on the prices at which units are purchased on the date of each individual contribution. Changes in the unit prices reflect changes in the market value of the assets of the fund.
The above returns exclude government contributions and no allowance has been made for monthly administration fees. Returns displayed are after management fees but before tax.
Biggest Holdings as at 31 December 2014
Growth Fund Conservative Fund
Mainfreight 3.7% NZ Govt 2020 3% bonds 6.5%
F & P Healthcare 3.1% Cash Deposit (ANZ) 4.5%
Ryman Healthcare 3.0% NZ Govt 2019 5% bonds 4.1%
Top 10 holdings 24.4% Top 10 holdings 30.7%
Further information about your KiwiSaver portfolios (including a full breakdown of the portfolio holdings, investment team
profiles and current fund fact sheet) can be found at http://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz.
The information and any opinions herein are based upon sources believed reliable, but the Company, its officers and directors make no representations as to its accuracy or
completeness. All opinions reflect our judgement on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in this publication should
not be used as a basis for making an investment decision about any particular company. Professional investment advice should be taken before making an investment. Past
performance is not a reliable guide to future performance. For an investment statement on any of our funds, please go to our website or call us on 0508 FISHER (0508 347437).
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Fisher Funds Management Limited
Registered Office | Fisher Funds Management Limited, Level 1, Crown Centre, 67-73 Hurstmere Road, Takapuna, Auckland 0622
Investor Enquiries | Level 1, Crown Centre, 67-73 Hurstmere Road, Takapuna, Auckland 0622
Postal Address Private Bag 93502, Takapuna, Auckland 0740 | Freephone 0800 FFKIWI (0800 335 494)
Telephone 09 445 3377 | Facsimile 09 489 7139 | Email kiwisaver@fisherfunds.co.nz | Website http://kiwisaver.fisherfunds.co.nz
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