Overcoming barriers to development of the - Australian jujube industry by Rachelle Johnstone

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Overcoming barriers to development of the - Australian jujube industry by Rachelle Johnstone
Overcoming barriers
to development of the
Australian jujube industry

by Rachelle Johnstone
July 2017
Overcoming barriers to development of the - Australian jujube industry by Rachelle Johnstone
Overcoming barriers to
development of the Australian
       jujube industry

                 by Rachelle Johnstone

                        July 2017

       AgriFutures Australia Publication No. 17/056
        AgriFutures Australia Project No. 009959
Overcoming barriers to development of the - Australian jujube industry by Rachelle Johnstone
© 2018 AgriFutures Australia.
All rights reserved.

ISBN 978-1-74254-979-8
ISSN 1440-6845

Overcoming barriers to development of the Australian jujube industry
Publication No. 17/056
Project No. 009959

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Researcher Contact Details

 Rachelle Johnstone
 PO Box 1231 BUNBURY WA 6231

 +61 8 9780 6158
 rachelle.johnstone@agric.wa.gov.au

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form.

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                                                          ii
Overcoming barriers to development of the - Australian jujube industry by Rachelle Johnstone
Foreword
This report is about overcoming the barriers to commercial production of jujubes in Australia. The
report provides a thorough economic review of the industry in Australia and globally, the industry’s
strategic plan, quality standard recommendations and nutrient and irrigation recommendations and
disinfestation options to allow market access.

The information in this report is targeted at potential jujube growers, propagators, and marketers in
Australia. It is intended to provide these stakeholders with greater knowledge of the potential for
growth of the industry in Australia and how barriers to its development can be overcome.

Jujube production shows potential to be a profitable industry for Australia. Focus for the next five
years should be on developing the domestic market with export market development as the long-term
plan for the industry as production increases.

Counter-seasonal production gives Australian jujube growers a competitive advantage for export of
fresh fruit to target markets in China, South East Asia and the Middle East. Further investigation is
needed in target markets into packaging and presentation of premium jujubes. Sufficient volumes and
consistent quality products need to be established before export markets are developed.

It is recommended that there be continued collaboration between research and industry to overcome
issues inhibiting the up-scaling of jujube production to a commercial level. Future development of the
jujube industry in Australia will require ongoing commitment and funding from investors in the
developing industry. Commercial investment is required for large scale trials to access markets and
work through market access issues.

This report is an addition to AgriFutures Australia’s diverse range of over 2000 research publications
and it forms part of our Emerging Industries Arena, which aims to conduct research, development and
extension for new, emerging and other core funded plant industries that contribute to the profitability,
sustainability and productivity of regional Australia.

Most of AgriFutures Australia’s publications are available for viewing, free downloading or
purchasing online at www.agrifutures.com.au. Purchases can also be made by phoning 1300 634 313.

John Harvey
Managing Director
AgriFutures Australia

                                                   iii
Overcoming barriers to development of the - Australian jujube industry by Rachelle Johnstone
About the Author
Rachelle Johnstone is a Development Officer at the Department of Agriculture and Food WA. She
joined the Department in 2007 after completing a Bachelor of Science in Agriculture at the University
of Western Australia. Her main role has been developing the emerging jujube industry, working
closely with the WA Jujube Growers Association.

Acknowledgments
The author would like to acknowledge:

    •   Members of the WA Jujube Growers Association Inc.
    •   Peter Gartrell, senior economist, Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development
        for all economic and market analysis.
    •   Keith Pekin and Graham McAlpine from Perth NRM for support through the Healthy Soils
        Healthy Rivers program for independent agronomist Neil Lantzke to undertake nutrient and
        irrigation analysis and recommendations.
    •   Diana Fisher from Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development for project
        support.
    •   Duncan Farquhar, Program Manager, Research and Innovation, RIRDC and John De Majnik ,
        former Senior Program Manager, Plant Industries, RIRDC.

Abbreviations
DPIRD           Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development

WAJGA           Western Australian Jujube Growers Association

                                                  iv
Overcoming barriers to development of the - Australian jujube industry by Rachelle Johnstone
Contents
Foreword ............................................................................................................................................... iii
About the Author.................................................................................................................................. iv
Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................. iv
Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................................ iv
Executive Summary.............................................................................................................................. ix
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1
Objectives ............................................................................................................................................... 3
Methodology........................................................................................................................................... 4
      Industry strategic plan ....................................................................................................................... 4
      Economic and market analysis .......................................................................................................... 4
      Improve propagation techniques and identification of potential new cultivars ................................ 4
      Best practice update .......................................................................................................................... 4
      Communication and promotion ........................................................................................................ 4
Industry strategic plan .......................................................................................................................... 5
      Vision ................................................................................................................................................ 5
      Mission.............................................................................................................................................. 5
      Objectives ......................................................................................................................................... 5
      Strategic focus areas ......................................................................................................................... 5
      Jujube industry swot analysis ............................................................................................................ 7
      Jujube industry survey results ........................................................................................................... 8
Economic and market analysis ........................................................................................................... 11
      World jujube production ................................................................................................................. 11
      Domestic market forecast................................................................................................................ 18
      Australian jujube imports ................................................................................................................ 21
      China imports .................................................................................................................................. 21
      Development budget results ............................................................................................................ 22
      Export potential for Australia ......................................................................................................... 23
      Conclusions and recommendations ................................................................................................. 23
Quality standard recommendations................................................................................................... 24
      Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 24
      Variety selections ............................................................................................................................ 24
      Irrigation and management ............................................................................................................. 25
      Nutrition .......................................................................................................................................... 25
      Training and pruning....................................................................................................................... 25
      Pest and disease control .................................................................................................................. 26
      Maturity........................................................................................................................................... 26

                                                                              v
Harvesting ....................................................................................................................................... 27
      Cool storage .................................................................................................................................... 28
      Sorting and Grading ........................................................................................................................ 29
      Packing and packaging.................................................................................................................... 30
      Summary ......................................................................................................................................... 30
Nutrient and irrigation recommendations ........................................................................................ 31
      Leaf analysis ................................................................................................................................... 31
      Fertiliser recommendations ............................................................................................................. 32
      Irrigation recommendations ............................................................................................................ 37
Disinfestation recommendations ........................................................................................................ 42
      Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 42
      Fruit fly disinfestation ..................................................................................................................... 42
      Import requirements from target markets ....................................................................................... 43
      Recommendations ........................................................................................................................... 43
Results................................................................................................................................................... 44
Implications .......................................................................................................................................... 46
Recommendations................................................................................................................................ 47
Appendix 1 – Potential jujube varieties for Australia ...................................................................... 48
      Current varieties in WA .................................................................................................................. 48
      Premium varieties in China ............................................................................................................. 49
      Potential varieties for import........................................................................................................... 50
      Process for importation ................................................................................................................... 54
Appendix 2 – Media, publications and presentations ...................................................................... 55
Appendix 3 - Jujube DL brochure ..................................................................................................... 58
References ............................................................................................................................................ 58

                                                                             vi
Tables
Table 1 population analysis for jujube consumption in Australia ......................................................... 18
Table 2 Estimation of market demand in 2011...................................................................................... 18
Table 3 Domestic jujube demand forecast with a market availability of 9 of 12 months ..................... 19
Table 7 Effect of maturity at harvest on storage times (Zhu, 2008) ...................................................... 28
Table 8 Atmospheres for long term CA and suggested fruit maturity and packaging .......................... 28
Table 9 General grading standard for fresh jujube ................................................................................ 29
Table 10 Grading standard for dry jujubes ............................................................................................ 29
Table 11 Kilograms of nutrient removed in the crop at harvest for a range of jujube yields ............... 32
Table 12 Kilograms of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium required for a range of jujube yields ..... 32
Table 13 Suggested pre plant fertiliser for jujube (kg/ha) .................................................................... 33
Table 14 Moisture content, bulk density and nutrient concentrations (% dry matter) of chicken manure
and commercially available compost .................................................................................................... 34
Table 15 Kilograms of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium contained in 10 tonnes of poultry manure
and commercially available compost. ................................................................................................... 34
Table 16 Recommended rates and timing of nutrient application for young and older trees (for
orchards planted on a 4 x 2 m or similar spacing) ................................................................................. 35
Table 17 Recommended rate and timing of mixed NPK plus trace element fertilisers for young and
older trees (for orchards planted on a 4 x 2 m or similar spacing) ........................................................ 36
Table 18 Jujube crop factors.................................................................................................................. 38
Table 19 Estimated water required for each month in cubic metres per hectare ................................... 39
Table 20 Estimated water required for each month in litres per tree (for an orchard with 1250 trees/ha)
............................................................................................................................................................... 39
Table 21 Estimated water required for each month in cubic metres per hectare ................................... 40
Table 22 Estimated water required for each month in litres per tree (for an orchard with 1250 trees/ha)
............................................................................................................................................................... 40
Table 23 Estimated water required for each month in cubic metres per hectare ................................... 41
Table 24 Estimated water required for each month in litres per tree..................................................... 41
Table 25 Cold treatment requirements .................................................................................................. 42
Table 26 Costs for cold disinfestation trial (per year) ........................................................................... 43
Table 27 Sources of current jujube varieties in Australia...................................................................... 48
Table 28 Chinese Jujube cultivars in China .......................................................................................... 49
Table 29 The 10 leading cultivars of Chinese jujube (Li, 2013) ........................................................... 49
Table 30 Disease resistant varieties (Liu et al. 2013) ............................................................................ 50
Table 31 Potential jujube varieties for importation from China ............................................................ 51

                                                                               vii
Figures

Figure 1 Challenges ranked in order of percentage responses ................................................................ 9
Figure 2 Opportunities ranked in order of percentage responses ............................................................ 9
Figure 3 Priorities ranked in order of percentage responses.................................................................. 10
Figure 4 Priorities ranked in order of percentage responses.................................................................. 10
Figure 5 FAO and Chinese Government aggregation of production data for dates/jujubes .................. 11
Figure 6 World production of dates/jujubes .......................................................................................... 12
Figure 7 Main jujube producing provinces in China ............................................................................. 12
Figure 8 Production by key provinces in China .................................................................................... 13
Figure 9 Provincial annual growth rates from 2005 – 2014 .................................................................. 14
Figure 10 China’s production and exports of jujubes from 2006 to 2015 ............................................. 14
Figure 11 Increase in GDP per capita ($US) in China and apparent consumption of jujubes per capita
............................................................................................................................................................... 15
Figure 12 Strong correlation between increasing GDP per capita and apparent jujube consumption .. 15
Figure 13 Apparent export price trend (2013–16) ................................................................................. 16
Figure 14 Export price and volume (China 2013–16) ........................................................................... 16
Figure 15 Volume–Export price relationship (2013–16)....................................................................... 17
Figure 16 Month–Export price relationship (2013–16) ......................................................................... 17
Figure 17 Estimated and forecast number of jujube trees and annual production in Australia to 2026 20
Figure 18 increasing immigration number per 5 year period for the selected ethnic group .................. 20
Figure 19 Imports of dates (kilograms) to Australia in 2015. China likely jujubes but the rest would be
traditional dates. .................................................................................................................................... 21
Figure 20 Imports of dates (kg) to China in 2015 ................................................................................. 21
Figure 21 Imports of dates (not jujubes) to China from 2006 to 2015. ................................................. 22
Table 4 Key investment result measures for the jujube development (Johnstone & Gartrell, 2016). ... 22
Figure 23 Total soluble solids (percentage sugar or °Brix) of three jujube varieties grown in Western
Australia. ............................................................................................................................................... 27
Figure 24 Leaf analysis results of WA jujube orchards in 2016 and 2017............................................ 31
Figure 25 Leaf analysis results of WA jujube orchards in 2016 and 2017............................................ 31
Figure 26 Jujube varieties grown in WA ............................................................................................... 48
Figure 27 the top 10 leading jujube cultivars in China.......................................................................... 50

                                                                              viii
Executive Summary
What the report is about

This report is about overcoming the barriers to commercial production of jujubes in Australia. The
report provides a thorough economic review of the industry in Australia and globally, the industry’s
strategic plan, quality standard recommendations and nutrient and irrigation recommendations and
disinfestation options to allow market access.

Development of the jujube industry in Australia offers the opportunity to provide counter-seasonal
production for the rapidly expanding Chinese market whilst introducing a new fruit to the Australian
consumer.

Who is the report targeted at?

The information in this report is targeted at potential jujube growers, propagators, and marketers in
Australia. It is intended to provide these stakeholders with greater knowledge of the potential for
growth of the industry in Australia and how barriers to its development can be overcome.

Where are the relevant industries located in Australia?

Plantings of jujube trees have increased in Australia as awareness of the crop increases. Western
Australia (WA) is currently Australia’s leading jujube producing state with an estimated 12 500 trees
planted on 20 hectares. There are approximately 40 jujube growers in the Perth Hills, the Wheatbelt
and the South West region in WA. Jujubes are also grown in the eastern states of Australia in Victoria,
New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia. The Northern Territory Department of Primary
Industries will soon begin trialling three jujube varieties in Alice Springs. The bulk of commercial
orchards are less than 5 years old, with many yet to produce, hence the low production at present.
Approximately 3000 new trees are being planted each year.

Background

Chinese jujube (Ziziphus jujuba Mill.) trees have grown successfully in Australia for 20 years and the
industry is growing steadily. WA’s proximity to South-East Asia and its counter season production to
the northern hemisphere provides a future opportunity to market Australian grown fresh Chinese
jujube for the increasing off-season demand in these countries.

Jujubes are mostly sold as a fresh fruit in the Australian market, mainly at speciality stores and via
internet orders. WA’s proximity to South-East Asia and its counter season production to the northern
hemisphere provide an opportunity to market product for the increasing demand especially during
festivals in January and February.

While there is potential for WA to export fresh jujubes to South East Asia, we do not currently have
the volume of fruit or the premium varieties required. The supply of tree stock at a commercial
quantity is a barrier to the development of the jujube industry in Australia. The importation of new
varieties from China and developments in propagation techniques could help overcome these
constraints.

Aims/objectives

The objectives of the project were to:

    1. Work with the jujube industry to develop a timeline for market success and progress down the
       road to that success.
    2. Analyse the potential growth capacity of the industry through economic and market analysis.

                                                   ix
3.   Improve propagation techniques and identify potential new cultivars.
    4.   Update the best practice guide and develop quality parameters for jujube production.
    5.   Develop consumer knowledge of jujubes.
    6.   Identify disinfestation options for fruit fly to allow access to export markets.

Methods used

Desktop analysis was used for much of the work including the economic and market analysis,
propagation literature review, disinfestation options, and quality standards. An industry survey was
carried out to get a baseline for the industry and prioritisation. Soil, leaf and water analysis was carried
out to determine recommendations for irrigation and fertiliser management.

Results/key findings

Industry Strategic Plan

The jujube industry was surveyed to build an industry profile including the size of the industry, the
area of production, tonnes produced, current market and future direction of the industry including
opportunities and barriers to growth. This information has been incorporated into the Industry
Strategic Plan. The WA Jujube Growers Association has been working to achieve the goals set out in
the strategic plan.

Economic and market analysis

A jujube consumption forecast for Australia was determined by analysing Australian Bureau of
Statistics (ABS) population data from the 2011 Census. Demand forecast was determined by
identifying a selected ethnic group (those born in or have one or more parents born in SE Asia) and
assuming they will consume the same amount of jujubes as the China average (4.76kg per person).
Other groups in the population were also selected who might consume a smaller percentage of the
China average.

We estimate that one in every three Australian’s would consume some amount of jujubes. The average
consumption in Australia was estimated to be 0.65kg/person with a total demand of 13 942 tonnes of
jujubes with an area demand equivalent of 418ha. Current production is estimated to be 20ha
producing around 200 tonnes of fruit supplying the domestic market.

China is not currently importing jujubes. Counter seasonal production gives Australia a competitive
advantage in supplying jujubes to South East Asia. Some limitations include market access as jujubes
are susceptible to Mediterranean fruit fly.

New varieties and propagation improvements

A literature review of propagation techniques was carried out and published on the DPIRD website.
Potential varieties from China were identified for import using information from experts in jujube
research from China. Unfortunately we were unable to import any new varieties. Exporting genetic
material seems to be a sensitive issue and it was recommended to be done through private companies
rather than government.

The industry can develop with the current varieties available. The economic analysis shows huge
potential for the domestic market alone and it will be many years before Australia can produce enough
jujubes to meet local demand. The industry will need to build relationships with nursery suppliers in
China and look to importing new varieties in the future but I think it will continue to thrive with
available cultivars.

                                                     x
Best practice guide

A nutrient, soil and irrigation assessment of a number of growers has led to development of irrigation
and fertiliser recommendations which are available on the DPIRD website. The main information
page (Best practice guide) on jujubes on the DPIRD webpage updated with links to these pages. This
page received over 20,000 page visits in the last 12 months (average of over 50 per day). A webpage
was published outlining quality management of jujubes throughout the supply chain.

Increase consumer awareness

A lot of interest was generated from the awareness campaign over the life of the project. A brochure
has been produced for growers to display at points of sale (Appendix 3). The brochure outlines some
nutritional facts about jujubes, how to store and eat them and includes a recipe.

Disinfestation options

As jujube fruit can be stored at low temperatures, cold treatment would be a suitable option for fruit fly
disinfestation. However, no research on cold disinfestation of jujubes for fruit fly has been undertaken
to date. If large scale trials are required to provide evidence for market access this will be a costly
exercise for this emerging industry. In order to fast-track development of the Australian jujube export
market there is an opportunity for the industry to be expanded into Tasmania where disinfestation
protocols will not be required due to its area of freedom from fruit fly.

Implications for relevant stakeholders

The strategic plan has provided the WA Jujube Growers Association with clear direction and
achievable goals for the next 5 years.

Four webpages have been developed, expanding on the best practice guide to provide information to
new and current growers on the latest research and best practice in propagation, irrigation and fertiliser
management and quality management and grading standards.

Market and economic analysis has provided an understanding of market opportunities and the likely
returns. This will help encourage investment as analysis has shown to be potentially profitable. This
positive prospectus will not only encourage planting of jujubes, but also increased production of jujube
planting stock.

Recommendations

Jujube production shows potential to be a profitable industry for Australia. Focus for the next five
years should be on developing the domestic market with export market development as the long-term
plan for the industry as production increases.

In the short term the WA Jujube Growers Association should encourage growers to adopt best practice
production and quality management of jujubes. For the industry long-term plan to develop export
markets it is recommended that industry further investigate importation of new varieties from China or
elsewhere. Market access issues will also need to be investigated for target markets.

It is recommended that there be continued collaboration between research and industry to overcome
issues inhibiting the up-scaling of jujube production to a commercial level. Future development of the
jujube industry in Australia will require ongoing commitment and funding from the developing
industry. Investigations into the options for self-funding will be required, especially if large scale trials
are required to overcome market access issues.

                                                     xi
Introduction
Jujube (Ziziphus jujuba Mill.) trees have grown successfully in Australia for over 20 years and the
industry is growing steadily. WA is currently Australia’s leading jujube producing state with an
estimated 12 500 trees planted on around 20 hectares. Plantings of jujube trees have increased in WA
in the last three years as awareness of the crop increases.

WA’s proximity to South-East Asia and its counter season production to the northern hemisphere
provides a future opportunity to market Australian grown fresh Chinese jujube for the increasing off-
season demand in these countries.

While demand for fresh jujubes in WA is currently higher than supply it will eventually reach a point
where new markets will need to be identified and developed outside of WA. As more production
comes on stream the local market is likely to come under pressure and prices will fall. The levels of
those falls will depend on the elasticity of demand. Economic analysis of the growth potential will
allow the industry to develop a timeline to success and be proactive in their market strategy.

Jujube production provides a diversification option to build business resilience for farmers in many
regions of Australia. The development of a jujube industry will be beneficial in fighting salinity and
water shortages (due to its drought and salt tolerance) which are challenges facing sustainable
agriculture in Australia.

The results of the previous RIRDC project ‘Developing the jujube industry in Australia’ indicated that
while there is potential for WA to export fresh jujubes to South East Asia, we do not currently have the
volume of fruit or the premium varieties required. The supply of tree stock at a commercial quantity is
a barrier to the development of the jujube industry in Australia. The importation of new varieties from
China and developments in propagation techniques could help overcome these constraints.

It has been established that jujube grow well in a range of regions in Australia and that there is a
market locally and potentially overseas for Australian grown fresh jujubes. However, there are some
obstacles for the young jujube industry. For it to break into the mainstream markets in Australia it
needs to increase production, develop quality parameters and broaden its window of supply. To remain
robust, it must develop marketing strategies and a range of markets over time to provide options for
the full range of products produced (fresh, dried and processed). Marketing strategies will include
development and adoption of quality parameters, packaging and distribution options and strategies to
increase demand such as highlighting the nutritional value of jujubes.

Increased production requires increased plantings, which requires the attraction of investment in the
industry. The understanding of market opportunities and the likely returns will help encourage
investment if shown to be potentially profitable. The supply of planting material is currently restricting
the growth of the industry. Encouraging increased production of plants will require an indication of the
potential growth capacity of the industry and identification of the most efficient approach to
production of young plants.

Expanding the marketing (production) window can be achieved by:

    •   growing in a wider geographic zone that results in different harvesting times
    •   developing supply agreements between producers from different locations that complement
        each other
    •   introducing new varieties that extend the harvesting period earlier and later than current
        varieties
    •   developing storage techniques that enable longer storage
    •   developing consumer knowledge

                                                    1
Jujube fruit is susceptible to fruit fly attack. Two key fruit fly species of economic importance are
present in Australia, Medfly in Western Australia and Qfly in most other states of Australia (excepting
Tasmania and areas of fruit fly freedom in South Australia). For the jujube industry to develop markets
across Australia and to some markets overseas, protocols for the disinfestation of fresh jujube to
ensure freedom from fruit fly will be required. As jujube fruit can be stored for 100 days at 0-1°C,
protocols using cold disinfestation are a potential option.

This will be a key step for the progression of the jujube industry, but it can be costly if full
demonstration is required on a variety basis. In the initial year, investigations should be carried out as
to the level of further research required.

Future development of the jujube industry in Australia will require ongoing commitment and funding
from the developing industry. Initial investigations into the options for self-funding will be required.

                                                     2
Objectives
The objectives of the project were to:

    1. Work with the jujube industry to develop a timeline for market success and progress down the
       road to that success.

    2. Analyse the potential growth capacity of the industry through economic and market analysis.

    3. Improve propagation techniques and identify potential new cultivars.

    4. Update best practice guide and develop quality parameters for jujube production.

    5. Develop consumer knowledge of jujubes.

    6. Identify disinfestation options for fruit fly to allow access to export markets.

                                                    3
Methodology
Industry strategic plan
The jujube industry was surveyed to build an industry profile including the size of the industry, the
area of production, tonnes produced and current market. Views on future direction of the industry
including opportunities and barriers to growth were also identified. Growers were asked to identify
what they believe are the main challenges and opportunities for the WA industry in the next five years.

Economic and market analysis
Economic analysis of market potential of jujubes (domestic and export) was carried out and a jujube
development budget was produced. The development budget outlines capital investment, markets,
production, development and operating expenses, income and a sensitivity analysis.

Analysis of industry growth potential was carried out by looking at current world production, domestic
production, export price and volume and market trends using Food and Agricultural Organization of
the United Nations (FAO) statistics. Domestic market forecast was determined by a population
analysis based on ABS data from the 2011 Census.

Improve propagation techniques and identification of potential new
cultivars
A literature review of the latest research on jujube propagation techniques was carried out.

Potential varieties from China were identified for import using information from experts in jujube
research from China. Early and late maturing varieties were identified to enable the WA industry to
extend the current supply season which is from February to May. Two major issues for the WA
industry are fruit cracking or splitting and Fruit Shrink disease which can cause significant crop losses
so varieties resistant to these issues were identified.

Best practice update
Nutrient and irrigation assessments for 16 WA jujube growers were carried out in 2016 and 2017.
With support from the Perth NRM Healthy Soils Healthy Rivers program independent agronomist Neil
Lantzke, took soil, leaf and water samples to help the industry benchmark growing practices and fine
tune optimal production input management.

Quality standard recommendations were also identified by looking at all aspects of jujube production
from site selection to transport to markets.

Communication and promotion
An important part of the project was to promote awareness and further develop the market for both
fresh and processed product within Australia. Numerous media statements were released over the life
of the project. This resulted in a good run of articles in local, rural, state, national media including
newspapers, magazines, radio and online articles.

A consumer brochure was developed to be on display with fruit at retailers. The brochure outlines how
best to select, store and eat jujubes and includes a recipe.

                                                    4
Industry strategic plan
The WA Jujube Growers Association strategic plan was produced in consultation with industry
participants in 2015. The WA Jujube Growers Association Inc. aims to implement the strategy with
the support of the industry.
Vision
A prosperous, profitable and sustainable jujube industry in Western Australia producing high quality,
sought after fruit.
Mission
The WA jujube growers association is the representative industry body of jujube growers, formed to
strengthen and grow the industry in Western Australia. Its aim is to work with industry and
government bodies to implement consistency in all aspects of jujube production and marketing.
Objectives
    1.      Increase the sustainability and profitability of jujube growers through improvements in
            production techniques and access to new varieties and technologies.
    2.      Increase consumer awareness of the health benefits of jujubes
    3.      Develop supply chains for existing and new markets
    4.      Obtain funding to resource industry development

Strategic focus areas
The Association has set up structured working groups of members with appropriate expertise, who are
assigned specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, time-bound tasks to meet the objectives set out in
this plan.
Working groups meet separately as needed, but report to mid-year and Annual General Meetings on
progress against objectives.
Focus area 1: agronomy best practice
          Objective: Increase the sustainability and profitability of jujube growers
          through improvements in production techniques and access to new varieties
          and technologies

    1.      Conduct annual yield and planting surveys to develop a robust industry data base.
    2.      Document case studies of current knowledge of cultural practices (successes and failures)
            throughout the supply chain (includes propagation, transport, site selection, establishment,
            soil management, irrigation and fertiliser regimes, training, pruning, biosecurity threats,
            pest and disease management, pollination, crop protection, maturity testing, harvesting and
            storage).
    3.      Collate information to produce a ‘Jujube grower’s manual’.
    4.      Establish and maintain liaison with a network of scientists and academics as a reference
            group for commenting on Task 2 and reporting to members on current trends and issues.

                                                   5
Focus area 2: marketing and promotion

          Objective: Increase consumer awareness of the health benefits of jujubes

   1.       Develop communication strategy to ensure potential buyers are aware that jujubes are
            grown in WA, when each season is approaching, and where fruit will be available.
   2.       Develop media strategy to promote the possible health benefits of jujubes to all
            consumers.
   3.       Develop Association membership satisfaction surveys and canvas new tree buyers to
            become members.
Focus area 3: market/supply chain development
          Objective: Develop supply chains for existing and new markets

   1.       Document quality and compliance benchmarks based on existing successful models.
   2.       With innovation; document, logistics, value adding and marketing options and distribution
            channels for current and expanded local markets.
   3.       Work with members to determine preferred scale of future industry – i.e. local supply or
            export driven.
   4.       Depending on above, work with Department of Agriculture and Food (DAFWA) and
            Austrade to develop export strategies.
   5.       Develop uniform nutrition labelling, branding and packaging purchase strategy.
Focus area 4: resourcing

          Objective: Obtain funding to resource industry development

   1.       Work with relevant agencies – e.g. DAFWA, Rural Industries Research and Development
            Corporation (RIRDC) and Horticulture Australia (HAL) to seek resources and funding for
            industry development
   2.       Develop a range of options to finance implementation of this strategic plan, such as
            grower levies, tiered membership, “club variety” membership models etc.

Key performance indicators
   •    Workshop members to determine preferred scale of future industry i.e. local supply or export
        driven by June 2017.
   •    Measurable increase in distribution spread and volume of fruit sold in seasons through 2016 to
        2021.
   •    Association grower membership stable or increased by December 2017.
   •    Conduct annual end-of-season output reports and planting plans by June 2016.
   •    Member’s agronomy case studies compiled in draft form to seek publishing funds by end
        August 2016.
   •    Jujube growers manual published with external funding by June 2017.
   •    Members’ information exchange on current research trends and issues at regular sub-
        committee meetings by Dec 2016.
   •    Document quality and compliance benchmarks based on existing successful models by
        December 2017.
   •    Uniform nutrition labelling, branding and packaging purchase strategy in place by December
        2017.

                                                  6
Jujube industry swot analysis

                                           Internal

 Strengths                                     Weaknesses
    •   Suited to wide range of growing            •   High cost and low availability of trees
        conditions
                                                   •   Lack of new varieties
    •   Widely recognised in Asian/middle
        eastern market                             •   Quality control, marketing and
                                                       promotion
    •   Health benefits (Vitamin C,
        antioxidants)                              •   Unknown to general Australian
                                                       population
    •   Industry cohesion
                                                   •   Little agronomic knowledge in WA
    •   ‘Clean & green’ production                     (water and nutrient requirements)

    •   Good return in present market              •   No chemicals registered for use on
                                                       plants or post-harvest

                                                   •   Storage – shelf life only 60 days

 Opportunities                                 Threats
    •   Counter-seasonal export SE Asia            •   Main rootstock in China (sour jujube)
                                                       not permitted in WA
    •   Developing commercial nursery
                                                   •   Market access (MedFly)
    •   Importing new varieties
                                                   •   Price drop as supply increases
    •   Developing markets both locally,
        interstate and overseas                    •   Biosecurity (pests and diseases)

    •   Develop consumer knowledge                 •   Lack of funding to implement required
                                                       initiatives
    •   Developing relationships with China

                                           External

                                               7
Jujube industry survey results
The jujube industry was surveyed to determine its views on future direction of the industry including
opportunities and barriers to growth. Growers were asked to identify what they believe are the main
challenges and opportunities for the WA industry in the next five years (Figures 1 and 2).

The main challenges identified were:

    •   Variety development
    •   Marketing and promotion of jujubes
    •   Industry cohesion

The main opportunities identified were:

    •   Market development
    •   Industry cohesion
    •   Quality assurance
    •   Variety development

Growers were asked to rank priorities for the WA Jujube Growers Association (figure 3). The top
priorities were identified as:

    •   Marketing and promotion of jujubes as a health food
    •   Documenting cultural practice, pest and disease issues
    •   Variety development and importation

Growers were asked to prioritise the importance of a number of issues on their own business (figure
4). The top issues were identified as:

    •   Lack of technical knowledge
    •   Industry being able to work collaboratively
    •   Access to varieties and/or nursery stock
    •   Biosecurity

                                                   8
Challenges
   70%
   60%
   50%
   40%
   30%
   20%
   10%
    0%

Figure 1 Challenges ranked in order of percentage responses

                                Opportunities
    70%
    60%
    50%
    40%
    30%
    20%
    10%
     0%

Figure 2 Opportunities ranked in order of percentage responses

                                             9
Prioirities for WA Jujube Growers Association

                Propagation and nursery practice.

                       Processing and packaging
    Documenting cultural practice, pest & disease
                      issues

                     Variety development/import

                                  Grower field days

                  Grower collaborative marketing

 Marketing & promotion of jujubes as health food

                                  Industry advocacy
                                                      0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

                     1 (low)       2 (low-med)        3 (Medium)     4 (med-high)     5 (high)

Figure 3 Priorities ranked in order of percentage responses

                        Importance to your own business
   Access to varieties and/or nursery stock

               Lack of technical knowledge

             Biosecurity - pests or diseases

 Industry being able to work collaboratively

                  Water quality or quantity

             Supply issues on local market

                                        Price

                                                0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
                        1 (low)       2 (low-med)       3 (Medium)     4 (med-high)      5 (high)

Figure 4 Priorities ranked in order of percentage responses

                                                         10
Economic and market analysis
World jujube production
Jujubes have been introduced to more than 47 countries throughout Asia, Europe, Africa, Americas,
and Oceania from China. Over 1.5 million hectares (ha) grow in China which currently produces more
than 99% of the world’s jujubes. Almost all jujube products in international markets are from China
(Liu & Zhao 2016).

More than 97% of Chinese jujube produced in China is consumed in domestic market especially in
south and north east China. The rest is exported to more than thirty countries around the world, of
which 80% is concentrated in the East and South East Asian countries (Liu & Zhao 2016).

Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi are the main export provinces. The majority of the exported jujube
production is dry fruit, followed by candied fruit. Fresh jujube is becoming more popular in both
domestic and international markets.

South Korea is the second biggest growing country of jujubes in the world, with commercial growing
area of about 5000ha and annual production around 20 000 tonnes (Liu, 2006).

Estimation world production of jujubes is difficult using Food and Agricultural Organization of the
United Nations (FAO) statistics as jujubes are such a niche crop. The product can also be referred to as
a ‘date’ which makes it difficult to differentiate between jujube production and other date production.

Figure 5 shows an aggregation of FAO and Chinese Government statistics for dates and jujube
production up to 2013. Figure 6 shows world date production (7.6 million tonnes). Including jujubes
this figure is 13.9 million tonnes. China produces 46% of the world’s dates of which most is jujubes
(6.3M tonnes).

Figure 5 FAO and Chinese Government aggregation of production data for dates/jujubes

                                                  11
Oman;    UAE; 245,000;
                269,000; 2%      2%
         Sudan;                        Tunisia;
       433,500; 3%                  195,000; 1%
    Other;                             Libya; 174,040;
 455,139; 3%                                 1%                China Jujube;
  Pakistan;                                                     6,333,500;
526,749; 4%                                                        45%
Iraq; 676,111;
      5%

  Algeria;
848,199; 6%                     China - all
                                 Dates
                                  46%

                                                                  China;
    Saudi;                                                      150,000; 1%
1,065,032; 8%
           Iran;             Egypt;
      1,083,720; 8%        1,501,799;
                              11%

Figure 6 World production of dates/jujubes
Production in China
Jujube production has developed at a rapid pace over the past 30 years in China. Its annual production
has increased more than 15 times from 1980 to 2015 from 376 000 tonnes to over six million tonnes
on a fresh weight basis. Ninety per cent of this production is concentrated in six Northern provinces:
Hebei, Xinjiang, Shandong, Shanxi, Shannxi, and Henan (Figure 7). The current total growing area in
China is approximately 2 million hectares (Liu & Zhao 2016).

Figure 7 Main jujube producing provinces in China

                                                  12
Figure 8 shows production by the main provinces in China. Xingjiang Provence has seen a massive
increase in production in the last 10 years with the introduction of new cultivars and favourable
growing conditions for producing premium quality fruit (Lin et al, 2013; Zhang et al, 2013). Figure 9
shows the annual growth rate of each jujube growing province. The overall average growth rate from
2005 to 2014 is 11%. For Xinjiang province the growth rate is over 55%.

Production and exports china
China produced over seven million tonnes of jujubes in 2015 but only 8000 tonnes was exported
(Figure 10). Consumption of jujubes per capita in 2015 was 5.33 kilograms (kg) and this is increasing
by 12.3% per year (Figure 11). There is a strong correlation between an increase in jujube
consumption and the increase in GDP ($US) per capita (R2=0.989, Figure 12).

                                         300
                                               Other   Hebei        Shanxi        Shandong
                                               Henan   Shaanxi      Xinjiang
 Provincial production (10 000 tonnes)

                                         250

                                         200

                                         150

                                         100

                                          50

                                           0

Figure 8 Production by key provinces in China

                                                               13
60%
                                                                     Average growth rate 2005-2014
 Annual average growth rate (%)

                                  50%

                                  40%

                                  30%

                                  20%

                                  10%

                                        0%

                                             Figure 9 Provincial annual growth rates from 2005 – 2014

                                        8,000                                                           800
                                                     Production ('000 T)
                                        7,000                                                           700
                                                     Exports ('000 T)
                                        6,000                                                           600
                  Production ('000 T)

                                        5,000                                                           500   Exports ('000 T)

                                        4,000                                                           400

                                        3,000                                                           300

                                        2,000                                                           200

                                        1,000                                                           100

                                             0                                                 0
                                              2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 10 China’s production and exports of jujubes from 2006 to 2015

                                                                               14
Gross Domestic Product per capita ($US)   7,000           GDP pc $US                                    6

                                                                                                                            Apparent Consumption per capita (kg)
                                                                          NC per capita (kg/hd)
                                                          6,000                                                         5

                                                          5,000
                                                                                                                        4
                                                          4,000
                                                                                                                        3
                                                          3,000
                                                                                                                        2
                                                          2,000

                                                                                                                        1
                                                          1,000

                                                             0                                                          0
                                                                   2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Figure 11 Increase in GDP per capita ($US) in China and apparent consumption of jujubes per
            capita

                                   7,000

                                   6,000
  GDP per capita ($US)

                                                                                                          R² = 0.9886
                                   5,000

                                   4,000

                                   3,000

                                   2,000

                                   1,000

                                                           0
                                                            1.50          2.50         3.50         4.50         5.50
                                                                       Apparent Jujube Consumption (kg per person)

Figure 12 Strong correlation between increasing GDP per capita and apparent jujube
           consumption

                                                                                          15
Export price, volume and value
The export price of jujubes from China shows an increasing trend since 2013 (Figure 13). Figure 14
shows that there are peaks in volume exported around January/ February. This is likely due to the
timing of Chinese New Year. This would most likely be dried product as the fruit would not be in
season at this time in China.

There does not appear to be a strong relationship between volume exported and apparent price of
jujubes (R2 =0.06, Figure 15). The correlation is also low when looking at export price in relation to
the month of the year (R2 =0.22, Figure 16).

                    6.00
   Average apparent price

                    5.00
         ($Au/kg)

                    4.00
                                                            R² = 0.747
                    3.00

                    2.00

                    1.00

                    0.00

Figure 13 Apparent export price trend (2013–16)

                    1,400                                                              6.00
                                Volume (T)
                    1,200       Price ($AU)
                                                                                       5.00
  Volume (Tonnes)

                    1,000
                                                                                              Price ($Au/kg)

                                                                                       4.00
                       800
                                                                                       3.00
                       600
                                                                                       2.00
                       400

                       200                                                             1.00

                            0                                                          0.00

Figure 14 Export price and volume (China 2013–16)

                                                   16
6.00
   Average Apparent Price ($Au/kg)

                                     5.00

                                     4.00
                                                                                                     R² = 0.0638
                                     3.00

                                     2.00

                                     1.00

                                     0.00
                                                                         0    200   400     600     800   1000     1200   1400
                                                                                          Volume (Tonnes)

Figure 15 Volume–Export price relationship (2013–16)

                                                                       6.50
                                     Average Apparent Price ($Au/kg)

                                                                       6.00

                                                                       5.50

                                                                       5.00
                                                                                                             R² = 0.224
                                                                       4.50

                                                                       4.00

                                                                       3.50

                                                                       3.00

                                                                       2.50

Figure 16 Month–Export price relationship (2013–16)

                                                                                                17
Domestic market forecast
Population analysis
A jujube consumption forecast was made by analysing Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)
population data from the 2011 Census. There was total of 21.5 million people in 2011 of which 15
million were born in Australia (69.8%) and 6.5 million were born overseas (30.2%).

The selected ethnic groups used for the analysis were those born in South East Asia (China, Hong
Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam and India) who are assumed to be familiar with the
product.

It is also estimated that a further percentage of the population may be familiar with similar products
(dates etc.) and that 15% of the people that did not state where they were born were from the selected
population. So the total selected ethnic group is
2 033 520 people. A further 381 457 people have parents (both or one) that were born in the selected
ethnic population. It is also estimated that the ethnic group population will influence a further 2.1
people each. This brings the total selected group to 5 071 451 people (Table 1).

Table 1 population analysis for jujube consumption in Australia
                                                             Population
 Total Australian population                                              21 500 000
 Selected ethnic group                                                     2 033 520
 Selected ethnic group background                                            381 457
 Ethnic group influence (ratio 1: 2.1)                                     2 656 474
 Total selected ethnic persons                                             5 071 451
Consumption and demand forecast
The average consumption of jujubes in China is 4.76kg per person (fresh and dried). It is assumed that
the selected ethnic group (9.5% of the population) will consume the same amount as the average
consumption in China. In addition to this it is assumed that people with the ethnic background will
consume half of this amount and the ethnic group influence will consume 20%.

Due to the health benefits of jujubes we have assumed that a percentage of the population who are
‘health conscious’ will consume 10% of the China average and 2% of the general population will
consume 3% of China’s average. We estimate that one in every three Australian’s would consume
some amount of jujubes (Table 2).

Using these figures, we estimate the average consumption in Australia would be 0.65kg/person with a
total demand of 13 942 tonnes of jujubes (Table 3).

Table 2 Estimation of market demand in 2011
           2011 estimation                 Percent of        Percent of       Consumption        Demand
                                           population          China            estimate           (T)
                                                            consumption       (kg/ person)
                 Selected ethnic group         9.5%            100%               4.76               9,677
     Selected ethnic group background          1.8%             50%               2.38                908
                Ethnic group influence        12.4%             20%               0.95               2,528
                                Health         7.5%             10%               0.48                768
                               General         2.0%              3%               0.14                 61
                      No consumption          66.9%              0%                 0                   0
                              TOTAL           100%              14%               0.65              13,942

                                                  18
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