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H1 2020 | Croatia
1
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
OVERVIEW
MARKET
RESEARCH AND FORECAST REPORT
CROATIA
H1 | 2020
2
CONTENT
H1 2020 | Croatia
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Summary 3
Economic Overview 4
Office Market 6
Retail Market 8
Industrial and Logistics Market 10
HTL Market 12
Investment Market 14
Residential Market 16
About Colliers 18
3
SUMMARY
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
H1 2020 | Croatia
Recent Trends Market Forecast
To counter the spread of COVID-19, major After a sharp drop in 2020, the economy is
containment measures were introduced in expected to start recovering in 2021, with
Croatia, as in other parts of Europe and the GDP growth of around 7.5%, according to
world. Real GDP is expected to contract the European Commission.
sharply in 2020 (close to 11%) and to
Investors' demand is expected to remain
partially recover in 2021, leaving the output
strong for prime properties, although some
below its pre-crisis level.
investors are looking for distressed
In H1 2020, commercial real estate opportunities. Pricing is expected to be
investment transaction volume exceeded mostly affected by the changes in the
€210 million, with the majority of deals underlying performance of the properties.
done in Q1 2020. Yields remained at the
Class A office buildings should be able to
same level as in 2019.
ride out a short and sharp economic shock
Although many companies shifted towards
provided there is a strong recovery in 2021.
remote work amid lockdown, average rents
Due to limited pipeline, the vacancy rate is
for Class A offices in Zagreb remained
expected to remain stable
stable due to low vacancy and limited
supply. Expansion in the retail sector is mostly
expected from food retailers. A shift
While shopping centres and high street
towards online shopping will continue.
were mostly affected by preventive
measures, grocery-based schemes proved Expansion in the industrial/ logistics sector
more resilient. is expected to continue. With increased
Growth of the industrial/ logistic sector, the interest and activity from developers, the
least developed CRE sector in Croatia, expansion of modern stock is expected in
continued with several new openings. the next years, especially with new build-
Demand is still strong, as most of the stock to-suit (BTS) projects.
is owner-occupied and outdated. The Although a significant drop is expected, a
strongest demand comes from companies tourism summer season of 2020 might turn
in the grocery, omnichannel and pharma better than expected at the start of the
related product fields. pandemic. A strong rebound is expected in
As the measures introduced to prevent the 2021, and a return to the 2019 level is
pandemic started to loosen in May 2020 forecasted in 2022 or the latest in 2023.
and tourist activity picked-up, the major
The residential real estate market demand
hotel operators began to open their
will be affected by the state of the
capacities partially.
economy, primarily employment level and
Number of apartment transactions wages. There is strong interest from foreign
decreased in H1 2020 for 23% compared developers, especially for large-scale
to the same period of the year before, while development projects in Zagreb.
asking prices in major cities remained at
2019 levels or slightly increased.
4
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
H1 2020 | Croatia
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Summary Forecast
When the COVID-19 pandemic reached After sharp drop in 2020, economy is
Croatia, the economy was in a more expected to start recovery in 2021.
resilient position than it had been at the European Commission forecasts GDP drop
onset of the 2008 global financial crisis. of 10.8% in 2020, followed by GDP growth
The estimate from the Croatian Bureau of of 7.5% in 2021.
Statistics shows that the quarterly GDP in
Domestic demand is expected to be the
real terms increased by 0.4% in the first
main driver of both the drop in GDP in the
quarter of 2020, as compared to the same
first half of 2020 and its recovery thereafter.
quarter of 2019.
Private consumption should recover
The Croatian government has tried to quickly with the reopening of the economy,
mitigate the negative economic impact as large scale layoffs appear to have been
from COVID-19 by the anti-coronavirus slowed down, thanks to the government's
package to support the economy and wage and employment support measures.
citizens estimated at around 10% of
The government has made progress on its
Croatian GDP.
plans for euro adoption. It formally entered
The seasonally adjusted unemployment the exchange rate mechanism ERM-2 and
rate had been trending down prior to the should now maintain a stable currency.
coronavirus outbreak, but this pattern has Entrance into Eurozone is expected from
now gone into reverse, with the 2023.
unemployment rate rising to 9.1% in June
Inflation at the start of 2020 was at 2.0%,
2020 (compared to 6.9% in February
pushed up by increases in the cost of
2020).
housing and transport fuel. But with the
According to the Croatian Bureau of drastic fall in oil prices and the weak
Statistics, the average monthly net salary in demand outlook, Oxford Economics
May 2020 amounted to 6,655 HRK (€870), expects inflation in Croatia to average 0.6%
which represented a real increase of 0.4% in 2020 and 0.9% in 2021.
over the month before.
The Croatian economy remains burdened
Major credit ratings for Croatia stand at: with high taxes. However, the government
Fitch BBB- (stable outlook), Standard & has announced a new round of tax
Poor's BBB- (stable outlook), Moody's Ba2 reforms in 2021.
(positive outlook). Therefore, Croatia's
rating is seen as investment-grade by two
of three major credit rating agencies.
Croatia - Credit rating (as of July 2020)
Agency S&P Mood'y Fitch
Rating BBB- Ba2 BBB-
Outlook stable positive stable
Source: Trading Economics
5
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
H1 2020 | Croatia
Figure 1: 5,0%
ECONOMIC GROWTH (GDP, 4,0%
ann. var. %)
3,0%
2,0%
1,0%
0,0%
-1,0%
-2,0%
Figure 2:
130
RETAIL TRADE TURNOVER – 125
SEASONALLY AND WORKING-
120
DAY ADJUSTED INDICES
(2015=100) 115
110
105
100
95
90
85
Nominal Real
Figure 3: 25,0%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN
CROATIA 20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
Sources: Figure 1: Croatian Bureau of Statistics | Figure 2: Croatian Bureau of Statistics | Figure 3: Croatian Bureau of Statistics
6
OFFICE MARKET
H1 2020 | Croatia
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Supply & Demand Rents and Vacancy Rate
The office sector was looking positive at the The lower availability of office spaces in
start of 2020. However, in H1 2020 Covid- Zagreb was apparent even before the
19 outbreak and the Zagreb earthquake earthquake. However, it exacerbated the
disrupted the market. impending lack of quality Class A offices
(vacancy less than 5%), especially those
As a result of Covid-19, many occupiers
larger than 1,000 m2.
have been negotiating rent deductions or
rent deferments. Some landlords accepted The average vacancy rate remained at
the extremity of the situation and granted below 5% in H1 2020, while the average
short-term rent deferment or deductions in Class A net effective office rent remained
order to preserve occupier relationships. at €12.5/m² in Zagreb. We expect that the
vacancy rate and average rents will remain
Exposure was mostly limited to properties
stable until new large-scale projects are
dependent on the distressed companies
delivered to the market.
(e.g., airlines, tour/ events operators,
tourism, some companies from Class A office buildings should be able to
professional services, etc.), whereas those ride out a short and sharp economic shock
with a strong IT, technical, government provided there is a strong recovery in 2021.
bodies, medical/ pharmaceutical have
Pipeline
proved to be more resilient.
The majority of projects under construction
During the mandated restrictions of travel are developed by local investors.
and gathering, many companies had their
The most significant new office building
employees working remotely (some still
close to completion in H1 2020 was
do). This brought a change of workplace
Matrix B in Zagreb Business District East.
solution paradigm for companies which
Matrix B has 10,700 m2 lettable area, is
may not require as much office space as
developed by GTC and will be a second
previously envisioned if they decide to
building in the Matrix Office Park.
continue working remotely. Demand for
flexible office is therefore set to increase. Dalmatia Tower in Split is nearly
completed and will by the end of 2020
On March 22nd, 2020, Zagreb was hit by
become the tallest building in Croatia with
the most powerful earthquake in its recent
27 floors. Office component will have
history, with a magnitude of 5.5 on the
approx. 30,000 m² of GFA.
Richter scale. Several historic buildings in
Zagreb city center were damaged and KFK Tehnika started the development of
many tenants were unable to work in their new office scheme of approx. 15,600 m²
offices due to structural damages to their GFA in Buzin, south Zagreb, along the
respective office buildings. This created a Zagreb bypass road. The property will
temporary demand hike for office premises house the Nova TV HQ and studios.
in modern Class A office buildings.
Croatian IT Company Infobip is
developing their new campus building in
Sv. Klara, south Zagreb. The Campus will
have approx. 10,500 m² office area and is
expected to be completed in late 2020.
7
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
H1 2020 | Croatia
Figure 4: ZAGREB OFFICE MARKET
Total stock in m 2
1,460,000 m²
KEY OFFICE MARKET
Vacancy rate 4 – 5%
FIGURES H1 2020
Average Prime Monthly Rent €14.0 – 15.0/m²
(NET EFFECTIVE RENTS)
Average Class A Monthly Rent €12.5/m²
Average Class B Monthly Rent €7.0 – 10.0/m²
CROATIAN CITIES
Split €9.0 – 14.0/m²
Rijeka €5.0 – 13.0/m²
Osijek €4.0 – 9.5/m²
Figure 5:
1.500 20,0%
ZAGREB OFFICE MARKET 17,5%
1.400
STOCK AND VACANCY RATE
15,0%
1.300
12,5%
1.200
in '000 m²
10,0%
1.100
7,5%
1.000
5,0%
900 2,5%
800 0,0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1
2020
Total Stock b.o.y Addition Vacancy (right side)
Figure 6:
70 180.000
CROATIAN OFFICE SECTOR: 160.000
60
BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED &
Issued building permits
Total Gross Floor Area
140.000
PLANNED FLOOR AREA 50
120.000
40 100.000
30 80.000
60.000
20
40.000
10
20.000
0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1
2020
Gross Floor Area, m² (right side) Number of issued permits
Sources: Figure 4: Colliers International | Figure 5: Colliers International | Figure 6: Croatian Bureau of Statistics
8
RETAIL MARKET
H1 2020 | Croatia
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Supply and Demand some version of rent reliefs during April and
After a steady growth of retail trade May.
turnovers in recent years, in H1 2020, the New schemes
working-day adjusted retail trade turnover
Supernova opened the new retail park in
decreased in real terms by 6.6% compared
Požega. The property has 11,000 m²
to the same period of the previous year,
GLA and 450 parking spaces. Tenants
according to the Croatian Bureau of
include C&A, dm, Deichmann, New
Statistics.
Yorker and others. Eurospin will also
Decrease in retail sales is mainly due to the open its store within the retail park in H2
regulatory measures implemented to stop 2020.
the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, as
most non-essential goods stores were
closed for business from March 19th, 2020
to April 27th, 2020 (and shopping malls till
May 11th, 2020).
The lockdown has accelerated the
transition to online shopping, which is Source: novac.hr
expected to further increase in the future, Tommy's SPOT shopping mall opened in
which might hurt the brick and mortar Makarska. With 22,000 m², it is the
stores' performance. largest shopping centre between Split
Food retailers (Plodine, Lidl, Tommy) and Dubrovnik. The shopping mall
continued expansion in H1 2020, but at a includes 32 stores and 310 parking
slower pace. Eurospin, an Italian food places. Tenants include Tommy, Muller,
discounter, will enter the market with its first New Yorker, and others. Investment is
store in Croatia in H2 2020 and an estimated at around €24 million.
additional 10 by the end of the year. They Pipeline
plan to open 100 stores in Croatia.
Project "Z" in the western part of Zagreb
(Špansko) is under construction. It will
Rents and Vacancy Rate
have 75,000 m² GFA. Local investor
Vacancy rate in prime shopping centres in Sensa Nekretnine develops the project.
Zagreb is approx. 3%, while weighted Completion is expected in 2021.
average rent currently stands around
€19/m²/month. The base rent in prime
shopping centres can reach up to
€50/m²/month for smaller premises (up to
150 m², depending on the sector).
High street rental levels in Zagreb range
from €30/m² to €140/m²/month, greatly Source: novac.hr
depending on the micro-location, size,
Revitalization of Kaptol Centar is
visibility and window display width.
underway. Supernova, owner of the
Tenants who were hit the hardest have shopping mall in the Zagreb city centre,
been negotiating rent reductions from their will invest a total of €15m. Completion is
landlords. In order to preserve good client expected by spring 2021.
relationships, most landlords agreed to
9
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
H1 2020 | Croatia
Figure 7: ZAGREB SHOPPING CENTRE MARKET
Total stock (approx.) 490,000 m²
KEY SHOPPING CENTRE
MARKET FIGURES H1 2020 Prime SC Vacancy
10
INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS MARKET
H1 2020 | Croatia
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Supply
Despite growth in the past few years the Significant openings
industrial and logistics sector is still the Phase 4 of Zagreb Logistics Park with
least developed CRE sector in Croatia. 15,000 m² GFA finished construction and
Majority of logistics stock is concentrated in was occupied by Milšped Logistics in
and around the capital city, Zagreb. March 2020.
However, zones in Kukuljanovo near
Manšped LDC with 9,900 m² GFA in
Rijeka and Dugopolje near Split are
Kukuljanovo zone, Rijeka completed
growing.
construction.
Modern warehouse/ logistics stock on the
Rimac Automobili opened a 5,000 m²
Croatian market is very limited and most of
GFA production facility in Veliko
the stock is owner-occupied. However, with
Trgovišće, north of Zagreb. The facility
increased interest and activity from
was formerly operated by Heruc textiles.
developers, the expansion of modern stock
is expected in the next years, especially
with new build-to-suit (BTS) projects.
Demand
Since the onset of COVID-19, some large
leasing deals have been put on hold until
companies ascertain how the current Source: zagorje.com
situation will unfold, but so far, no BTS
projects have been put on hold. Pipeline
Croatian Post's LDC, with 5,000 m² GFA
Conversely, there has been an increase in
in Kukuljanovo, Rijeka started
demand and requirements from companies
construction. Investment of €8m will be
in the grocery, omnichannel and pharma
finished in H1 2021.
related product fields. Distribution needs
are positive and likely to drive growth. In FACC Solutions acquired a 128,800 m²
landlord-friendly markets, this means that land plot in Jakovlje for a new production
although some companies may not be facility.
progressing on active deals, there are Eurospin LDC is planned to be built in
several other willing occupiers waiting to Velika Gorica in Meridian 16 business
pick deals up, given the overall lack of zone. The first phase will consist of
availability in the market. approx. 20,000 m² GFA logistics facility.
Rents and Vacancy Rate GLS Logistics acquired a 104,600 m²
Vacancy rate in modern stock remained land plot in Stupnik from Allegheny
below 2.5%. Prime monthly headline rents Financial.
for logistics premises in Zagreb are in the
Tommy 30,000 m² logistics centre in
region of €5.5/m². Average rents for older
Dugopolje Split to be developed by
industrial premises range from €2/m² to
Poseidon Group.
€4/m².11
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
H1 2020 | Croatia
Figure 10: ZAGREB INDUSTRIAL MARKET
KEY LOGISTICS MARKET Total stock in m² +1,000,000
FIGURES H1 2020 Vacancy12
HTL MARKET
H1 2020 | Croatia
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Summary Forecast
Due to the outbreak of COVID-19 Although a significant drop is expected, the
pandemic and travel restrictions across summer season of 2020 might turn better
Europe, a strong drop in tourism activity than expected at the start of the pandemic.
was recorded in H1 2020. In the first six A strong rebound is expected in 2021, and
months of 2020, tourists in Croatia realized a return to the 2019 level is forecasted in
1.5 million tourist arrivals and 5.2 million 2022 or latest in 2023. The performance
overnights, which was a decrease of 77.5% will vary from one property to the other and
in tourist arrivals and of 77.1% in tourist some might recover more quickly. In the
overnights, as compared to the same long term, the epidemic is unlikely to be a
period of 2019. The measures introduced catalyst for a significant structural change.
to prevent the COVID-19 pandemic started
to loosen in May 2020 and tourist activity
H1 2020 significant openings:
picked-up. 4* Hotel Amphora was opened in June
2020 on the Žnjan beach in Split. The
In H1 2020, 42% of all overnights were
hotel includes 206 units, 3 swimming
recorded in private accommodation,
pools, 2 restaurants, wellness centre and
followed by hotels with 26% share and
a congress hall with 500 seats. Total
camps with 23% share in total overnights,
investment was estimated at €26 million.
respectively, according to the Croatian
Tourist Board.
Average hotel occupancy in H1 2020 for
Croatia stood at 5.2% for fully capacity and
31.6% for operating capacity, according to
Hotel Benchmarking by Faculty of Tourism
and Hospitality Management in Opatija.
Source: booking.com
The difference between occupancy on fully
and operating capacity basis is due to the Pipeline
fact that many operators opened only part Finishing works on Hotel Ambasador in
of their capacities due to anticipated lower Split are underway. The hotel will have
demand. 101 accommodation. Opening was
The highest ADR in H1 2020 were postponed due to coronavirus problems
recorded hotels in Kvarner at €92, followed and is expected by the end of 2020. Total
by hotels on the Continent and in Istria investment is estimated at €23 million.
regions with ADR at €74 and €72,
respectively.
The hotel stock in Croatia is predominantly
owner-operated with independent brands,
but there is a strong demand from
international hotel operators to enter the
Source: slobodnadalmacija.hr
market. Many of existing and newcomer
hotel operators prefer light-asset strategy Hilton Costabella Beach Resort & Spa is
and running the business of the hotels via expected to open in Q4 2020 in Rijeka.
different key operating models – Hotel The resort will feature 132 hotel rooms
Management Agreement, Franchise and 66 apartments, while the investment
Agreement or Lease Agreement. is estimated at €80 million.13
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
H1 2020 | Croatia
Figure 13:
100
Million
5,8
TOURIST ARRIVALS & 90
OVERNIGHTS IN CROATIA 80 5,4
70
5,0
60
4,6
50
40 4,2
30
3,8
20
3,4
10
0 3,0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1
2020
Arrivals Overnights Length of stay (rhs)
Figure 14: 3.500.000
NUMBER OF PASSENGERS AT 3.000.000
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS IN
CROATIA 2.500.000
2.000.000
1.500.000
1.000.000
500.000
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1
2020
Zagreb Split Dubrovnik Zadar Pula
Figure 15:
ACCOMMODATION TYPE
SHARE IN OVERNIGHTS IN H1 9%
2020 26%
42%
23%
Hotels Camps Private accommodation Other
Sources: Figure 13: Croatian Bureau of Statistics | Figure 14: Croatian Bureau of Statistics | Figure 15: Croatian Tourist Board14
INVESTMENT MARKET
H1 2020 | Croatia
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Summary Top Transactions in H1 2020
In H1 2020, the total investment transaction The most significant transactions recorded
volume of commercial real estate in H1 2020 are presented below.
exceeded €210 million, which is ca. 40% of
Tower Property Funds disposed of two
the total transacted volume in 2019. The
retail assets in their portfolio, Konzum
majority of deals were done in Q1 2020 as
Vukovarska in Zagreb and Konzum
the coronavirus situation raised concern
Velika Gorica. The buyer was 3D Real
among investors and halted property
Estate No.1. The yields were at 6.50% for
inspections.
property in Zagreb and 7.50% for
In H1 2020, investors focused mostly on property in Velika Gorica. The WAULT for
the capital city Zagreb, which accounted for both properties is over 8 years.
84% of all investment volume, followed by
MK Group acquired 49% ownership in
Dalmatia and Istra/ Kvarner regions with
Dalmare shopping mall in Šibenik from
12% and 4% shares in total transacted
Fortenova Grupa. The transaction was
volume, respectively.
conducted under a strong discount.
The majority of activity in H1 2020 was
recorded in the retail sector, which
accounted for 65% share in total transacted
volume, followed by office properties with
22% and hotels with 9% in total volume,
respectively. Despite high demand, the
lowest activity was recorded in the Source: m.sibenik.in
industrial/ logistic sector, it is mainly due to
the fact that most properties are owner- Plodine acquired a vacant office tower,
occupied. which is a part of Tower shopping mall in
Rijeka from the developer, Policentro
Yields for prime income-producing Rijeka. The 8,000 m² tower is in the shell
properties remained at the same levels as and core condition and will be
in 2019. Significant changes are not repositioned as a new Plodine HQ.
expected for prime CRE yields, as the
pricing of commercial properties will be PBZ sold its former HQ building in
most affected by the potential changes of Račkog 6, downtown Zagreb to Invest
the underlying performance of the Consult (local investor and owner of the
properties (e.g., rental rates, occupancy nearby Le Premier hotel) for €7.8m. The
rates, etc.). building currently has two tenants, PBZ
(branch office and vault) and Croatian
Prime yields in H1 2020 - Croatia
Financial Services Supervisory Agency
A class Office Yield 7.50%
(HANFA).
Prime Retail Yield 7.00%
Arena Hospitality Group bought 89 room
Prime Industrial/Logistics Yield 8.00%
Hotel Riviera, a historic building in
Sources: Colliers International
downtown Pula from the Republic of
Croatia for €4.8 million or €54,000/room.
They are planning to rebrand the hotel
into the first art hotel in Croatia.15
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
H1 2020 | Croatia
Figure 16:
900
CRE INVESTMENT
TRANSACTION VOLUMES IN 800
CROATIA (€) 700
600
Million €
500
400
300
200
100
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 H1 2020
Figure 17:
CROATIA – CRE INVESTMENT 12%
4%
TRANSACTION VOLUMES (€)
BY REGION IN H1 2020 Istria/Kvarner
Zagreb
Dalmatia
84%
Figure 18:
CROATIA – CRE INVESTMENT
TRANSACTION VOLUMES (€) 4% 9%
BY PROPERTY SECTORS IN
Hotel
H1 2020
Office
36%
Retail
51%
Industrial/Logistics
Sources: Figure 16, 17, 18: Colliers International on RCA Analytics, eNekretnine, Financial Reports, katastar.hr16
RESIDENTIAL MARKET
H1 2020 | Croatia
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Supply Projects under construction
The supply of new-build apartments is still Asking prices for apartments remained at
much below levels achieved pre-2009. The or slightly above the 2019 levels, with the
supply in Zagreb currently stands at 2,700 average asking price for apartments in
newly built apartments annually or over June 2020 at €2,120/m² in Zagreb (+4.0%
200,000 m². Building permits in Croatia yoy), €2,960/m² in Split (+2.1% yoy),
were issued for around 4,000 apartments €1,710 in Rijeka (+9.3% yoy) and €1,070 in
or approximately 300,000 m² in H1 2020. Osijek (+7.3% yoy), according to
Njuskalo.hr.
Construction and planning continued, with
the most active developers in Zagreb being Average transaction prices in new build
Pionir, VMD, Alfastan, Nivogradnja, Mešić, apartment projects in Zagreb range from
Sigma, Kaić, etc. However, there is strong €1,600/m² to €2,200/m² for secondary
interest from foreign developers, especially locations, €2,100/m² to €2,900/m² for tram
for large-scale development projects in zone locations and +€3,000/m² for upscale
Zagreb. projects in wider city center area (all
mentioned prices include 25% VAT).
The March earthquake in Zagreb revealed
deficiencies of the older apartment stock in The total number of apartment transactions
the city centre that was not brought up to in H1 2020 stood at around 7,800 in
the modern safety standards and Croatia, while Zagreb accounted for 46% of
decreased the supply of prime city centre all transactions. According to eNekretnine
location properties. transaction database, the total number of
apartment transactions in H1 2020 was
Demand
23% lower compared to H1 2019.
Demand is based mostly on the local
population with a mild share of foreigners
Pipeline
or diaspora buying on the coast and in high-
end projects in Zagreb. Demand is mostly VMD Kneza Borne will be an upscale 120
propelled by the need for permanent apartment project in downtown Zagreb.
residence. Tourism / short-term apartment The selling price is estimated at more
rental business (tourist accommodation) is than €3,400/m² (incl. VAT) while it is
another important driver, especially on the rumored that the project, which will be
coast. The COVID-19 pandemics' effect on completed by Q4 2021, has 400+
the economy will be visible in the slowdown interested buyers. VMD also started the
of economic activity due to the nationwide construction of a 400+ apartment
lockdown and restrictions, as well as in the development on Heinzelova Street.
downturn of tourism. Subsequently, the Alfastan is developing an upscale 130
residential real estate market demand will apartment project in Bužanova with
be defined by the state of the economy, selling price at est. €3,500/m² (incl. VAT).
primarily the employment level.
The March earthquake in Zagreb had
increased demand for modern buildings
built to the highest safety standards, while
the COVID-19 pandemic created a slight
increase in demand for houses.
Source: alfastan.hr17
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
H1 2020 | Croatia
Figure 19: 800.000
ISSUED BUILDING PERMITS 700.000
FOR APARTMENTS IN
CROATIA, NET FLOOR AREA 600.000
(m²) 500.000
400.000
300.000
200.000
100.000
0
Figure 20: 3.000
MONTHLY APARTMENT 2.500
TRANSACTIONS IN ZAGREB
AND CROATIA 2.000
1.500
1.000
500
-
Zagreb Rest of Croatia
Figure 21: 30% 9,00%
RESIDENTIAL PRICE INDEX
Residential price index (YoY)
20% 6,00%
ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (Ø
2015 = 100) VS GDP CHANGE 10% 3,00%
∆GDP (YoY)
(YOY)
0% 0,00%
-10% -3,00%
-20% -6,00%
-30% -9,00%
∆GDP (rhs) City of Zagreb Adriatic coast Other
Sources: Figure 19: Njuškalo.hr | Figure 20: eNekretnine | Figure 21: Croatian Bureau of Statistics18
ABOUT COLLIERS
H1 2020 | Croatia
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
Colliers International (NASDAQ,
TSX: CIGI) is a leading global real
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estate services and investment
management company.
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For more than 20 years, our
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investment returns for shareholders.
EMEA: 114
In 2019, corporate revenues were
€3.1 billion, with more than €29.4
billion of assets under management. €3.1
Learn more about how we accelerate billion in
success at corporate.colliers.com, annual revenue
Twitter @Colliers or LinkedIn.
€115
billion completed
transactions in 2019
175
million square meters
under management
18,000
professionals and staff19
Research and Forecast Report | Colliers International
H1 2020 | Croatia
Colliers professionals think differently
Colliers International offers a comprehensive portfolio of real estate services across
Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina & Slovenia to occupiers, owners, investors and
developers on a local, regional, national and international basis. Services include
Workplace solutions, Project management, Real estate management, Valuation &
investment advisory, Capital markets, Landlord representation, Tenant representation,
Corporate solutions and Technical due diligence.
What sets Colliers apart is not what we do, but how we do it. You'll experience forward-
looking expertise that elevates value every step of the way. We simply think differently
and that produces innovative outcomes. Whether you're a developer, investor, landlord
or tenant, we are a partner who is dedicated in seeing you succeed.
CAPITAL
MARKETS
VALUATION &
INVESTMENT LANDLORD
ADVISORY REPRESENTATION
TENANT
REAL ESTATE COLLIERS REPRESENTATION
MANAGEMENT SERVICES
CORPORATE
PROJECT
SOLUTIONS
MANAGEMENT
WORKPLACE TECHNICAL
SOLUTIONS DUE DILIGENCEFOR MORE INFORMATION
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL CROATIA, SLOVENIA AND AUTHOR:
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Ivan Laljak
+385 1 4886 280 Consultant
croatia@colliers.com Investment, Valuation and Advisory Services
http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/croatia ivan.laljak@colliers.com
This report gives information based primarily on Colliers International data, which may be helpful in anticipating trends in the property sector.
However, no warranty is given as to the accuracy of, and no liability for negligence is accepted in relation to, the forecasts, figures or conclusions
contained in this report and they must not be relied on for investment or any other purposes. This report does not constitute and must not be
treated as investment or valuation advice or an offer to buy or sell property.
Colliers International
About Colliers International
Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading real estate professional services and investment management company. With operations Petrinjska 3
in 68 countries, our more than 18,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert advice to maximize the value of property
for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 25 years, our experienced leadership, owning approximately 40% of our equity, has Zagreb
delivered compound annual investment returns of almost 20% for shareholders. In 2019, corporate revenues were more than $3.0 billion ($3.5
billion including affiliates), with $33 billion of assets under management in our investment management segment. Learn more about how we
accelerate success at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter @Colliers or LinkedIn.You can also read
