Quarterly Sector Update - Fidelity Investments

Page created by Alvin Kelly
 
CONTINUE READING
LEADERSHIP SERIES THIRD QUARTER 2018

Quarterly
Sector Update
PRIMARY CONTRIBUTORS

Fidelity Management & Research Company, Equity Division
SECTOR UPDATE
    Scorecard: Technology and Discretionary Remain on Top
    The S&P 500 has traded in a fairly narrow range through the first half of 2018, gaining 2.6%. Technology, consumer
    discretionary, and energy top the scorecard, and cyclicals are likely to remain in favor as the corporate profit
    recovery remains intact. Consumer discretionary had the strongest YTD returns and energy was Q2’s top
    performer, driven by a sharp rise in oil prices. Conversely, real estate and utilities continue to face headwinds.

                                         Longer                      Time Horizon View                         Shorter                             Performance as of 6/30/18
                                                                                                                              Weight in
                                          Business                                   Relative              Relative           S&P 500®         Latest           Year         Dividend
      Sector                               Cycle            Fundamentals            Valuations             Strength            Index           Quarter         to Date         Yield

             Consumer
             Discretionary                                          +                    –                     +                12.9%            8.2%          11.5%            1.2%

             Consumer Staples                                                                                  –                  6.7%           -1.5%          -8.5%           3.1%

             Energy                                                                      +                     +                  6.3%          13.5%            6.8%           2.6%

             Financials                                             –                    +                                      14.2%            -3.2%          -4.1%           1.7%

             Health Care                                                                                                        13.9%            3.1%            1.8%           1.6%

             Industrials                      +                                          –                     –                  9.9%           -3.2%          -4.7%           2.0%

             Information
             Technology                       +                     +                    –                     +                26.0%            7.1%          10.9%            1.1%

             Materials                        –                     +                                                             2.8%           2.6%           -3.1%           2.0%

             Real Estate                                            –                                                             2.7%           6.1%            0.8%           3.3%

             Telecom                                                                     +                     –                  1.8%           -0.9%          -8.4%           5.2%

             Utilities                        –                     –                                                             2.8%           3.7%            0.3%           3.4%

                                                                                                                              S&P 500®
                                                                                                                                                 3.4%            2.6%           1.8%
                                                                                                                               Returns

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Sectors as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS ®); see additional information in the appendix. Factors
    are based on historical analysis and are not a qualitative assessment by any individual investment professional. Green portions suggest outperformance; red portions suggest
    underperformance; unshaded portions indicate no clear pattern vs. the broader market as represented by the S&P 500. Quarterly and year-to-date returns reflect performance of S&P
    500 sector indexes. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Percentages may not total 100% due to rounding.
    Source: FactSet, Fidelity Investments, as of June 30, 2018.
2
SECTOR UPDATE
    Fundamentals: Tech, Materials, and Discretionary Still Strong
    Cyclical sectors, led by technology, materials, and consumer discretionary continued to show fundamental strength
    through Q2. Technology boasted the highest EBITDA growth and FCF margin; materials had impressive EPS and
    EBITDA growth; and consumer discretionary’s ROE has been strong. On the other hand, the fundamentals of
    financials and some defensive sectors, including real estate and utilities, were weaker relative to the broad market.

    EPS Growth (Last 12 Months)                                                                                                                                                                          EBITDA Growth (Last 12 Months)
    150%                                                                                                                                                                                                 25%
    100%                                                                                                                                                                                                 20%
                                                                                                                                                                                                         15%
     50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                         10%
      0%                                                                                                                                                                                                  5%
    -50%                                                                                                                                                                                                  0%
                     Energy

                                                                                                                                                                Financials
                                                                                                                        Stpls.

                                                                                                                                                                              Technology
                                                                                                          500
                                                                                           Disc.
                                    Telecom

                                                                    Utilities
                                                   Materials

                                                                                                                                                      Estate

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Care
                                                                                                                                  Industrials
                                                                                     Cons. Disc.

                                                                                                                  Cons. Stpls.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Cons. Stpls.
                                                   Materials

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Materials

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Cons. Disc.
                     Energy

                                    Telecom

                                                                    Utilities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Energy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Utilities

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Telecom
                                                                                                      S&P 500

                                                                                                                                                 Real Estate
                                                                                                                                  Industrials

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   S&P 500
                                                                                                                                                                Financials

                                                                                                                                                                              Technology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                Technology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Industrials
                                                                                                                                                                                           Health Care

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Health Care
                                                                                                      S&P

                                                                                                                                                                                           Health
                                                                                     Cons.

                                                                                                                  Cons.

                                                                                                                                                 Real
    Return on Equity (Last 12 Months)                                                                                                                                                                    Free-Cash-Flow Margin (Last 12 Months)
    30%                                                                                                                                                                                                  30%
    20%                                                                                                                                                                                                  20%

    10%                                                                                                                                                                                                  10%

     0%                                                                                                                                                                                                   0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Cons. Stpls.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Cons. Disc.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Materials

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Energy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Utilities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             S&P 500
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Technology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Telecom

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Health Care

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Industrials
             Cons. Stpls.

                              Cons. Disc.

                                                                                                   Materials

                                                                                                                                                Utilities

                                                                                                                                                                             Real Estate

                                                                                                                                                                                           Energy
                                              Technology

                                                                                                                Telecom

                                                                                                                                 S&P 500

                                                                                                                                                               Financials
                                                               Industrials

                                                                                Health Care

                                                                                                                                                                                                         -10%

                                                                                          Fundamentals: Strong and improving fundamentals historically have been an
                                                                                          intermediate-term indicator of sector performance. Fundamental analysis gives
                                                                                               a view of how each sector is doing in terms of growth and profitability.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results. EPS = earnings per share. EBITDA = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and
    amortization. The financials and real estate sectors are not represented in the EBITDA Growth or Free-Cash-Flow Margin charts. Note that the
    energy sector’s EPS growth (last 12 months) was 661.6%. See the Glossary and Methodology slide for further explanation. Source: FactSet,
3   Fidelity Investments, as of June 30, 2018.
SECTOR UPDATE
    Relative Valuations: Telecom and Energy Look Cheap
    Based on our framework, telecom and energy appear inexpensive relative to their historical averages and to other
    sectors, as both sectors have trailed the broader market over the past few years, despite energy’s more recent rally.
    Financials also looks attractive from a valuation perspective. Conversely, the valuations of technology, consumer
    discretionary, and industrials appear somewhat elevated.

    Earnings Yield                                                                                                                                            Free-Cash-Flow Yield
      10-Year Range (excl. top & bottom 5%)                                                       Current                 Historical Average                   10-Year Range (excl. top & bottom 5%)                                     Current                  Historical Average

    Relative Forward Earnings Yield to S&P 500 Index                                                                                                          Relative Free-Cash-Flow Yield to S&P 500 Index

    200%                                                                                                                                                      300%
    180%                                                                                                                                                      250%
    160%
                                                                                                                                                              200%
    140%
    120%                                                                                                                                                      150%
    100%                                                                                                                                                      100%
     80%                                                                                                                                                       50%
     60%
                                                                                                                                                                0%
     40%
     20%                                                                                                                                                      -50%
      0%                                                                                                                                                      -100%
                                                                                                                                                  Utilities
                Cons. Disc.

                              Cons. Stpls.

                                             Energy

                                                                                                 Technology
                                                                                   Industrials

                                                                                                                                        Telecom
                                                                     Health Care

                                                                                                              Materials

                                                                                                                          Real Estate
                                                      Financials

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Utilities
                                                                                                                                                                       Cons. Disc.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Telecom
                                                                                                                                                                                     Cons. Stpls.

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Energy

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Technology

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Materials
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Industrials
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Health Care
                                                                   Relative Valuations: On their own, valuations are not necessarily the best indicator
                                                                     of sector performance, but when combined with other factors, valuations can be
                                                                                  a useful tool in determining the risk-and-reward profile.
    Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Forward earnings yield reflects analysts’ published earnings-per-share estimates for the
    next 12 months, divided by market price per share; it is the inverse of the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. Free-cash-flow yield reflects free cash flow
    divided by market price per share; it is the inverse of the price-to-free-cash-flow ratio. The financials and real estate sectors are not represented in
    the Free-Cash-Flow Yield chart. Please see the Glossary and Methodology slide for further explanation. Source: FactSet, Fidelity Investments, as
4   of June 30, 2018.
SECTOR UPDATE
    Relative Strength: Tech and Discretionary Continued to Lead
    Technology and consumer discretionary continued their steady leadership through the first half of 2018, while
    energy also outperformed. Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and telecom continued to trail the broader
    market, with no clear sign of an impending change in trend. Industrials also lagged over the past six months, but
    leading indicators suggest a constructive outlook for the sector moving forward.

    Sectors Exhibiting Relative Strength                                                               Sectors Exhibiting Relative Weakness
          Technology             Cons
                                 Cons.Disc.
                                      Disc.            Energy                                                 Cons. Stpls.           Telecom            Industrials

    Price Relative to S&P 500 Index                                                                    Price Relative to S&P 500 Index

    140                                                                                                140

    130                                                                                                130                                                                6-month
                                                                                                                                                                           review
    120                                                                                                120

    110                                                                                                110

    100                                                                                                100

     90                                                                                                  90

     80                                                                                                  80

     70                                                                                                  70

     60                                                                  6-month                         60
                                                                          review
     50                                                                                                  50
      Jun-16              Dec-16              Jun-17             Dec-17              Jun-18               Jun-16              Dec-16              Jun-17              Dec-17    Jun-18

                                           Relative Strength: This indicator compares the performance of each sector with
                                              the performance of the broad market, based on changes in the ratio of the
                                                               securities’ respective prices over time.

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Charts represent performance of specified S&P 500 Sector Indexes relative to the broader
    S&P 500 Index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Source: FactSet, Fidelity Investments, as of June 30, 2018.
5
SECTOR UPDATE
    If Earnings Come Through as Expected, Stocks Appear Cheap
    The conventional wisdom seems to be that valuations are still elevated. But improving earnings estimates have
    brought the market’s forward P/E ratio below 16, based on earnings projections for 2019. A P/E of 16 on forward 18-
    month earnings is near the average of the last 80 years and in the cheapest quartile of periods since 1990. This may
    be bullish for stocks, and for cyclicals in particular, especially if we are in the early stages of profit recovery.

    Stock Market Valuations Appear Inexpensive                                                         At These Valuations Historically, Stocks Have
    Based on 2019 Earnings Estimates                                                                   Had a High Probability of Advancing
    S&P 500 Price/Operating Earnings With Estimates (Ratio)                                            Odds of Stock Market Advance (Next 18 Months, Rolling), Since 1990

    35                                                                                                 100%

                                                                                                                                95.2%
    30
                                                                                                         95%

    25                                                               Estimated
                                                                                                         90%

    20
                                                                                                         85%
    15
                                                                                                                                                               79.8%
                                                                                                         80%
    10

                                                                                                         75%
     5

     0                                                                                                   70%
         Mar-90

         Mar-93

         Mar-96

         Mar-99

         Mar-02

         Mar-05

         Mar-08

         Mar-11

         Mar-14

         Mar-17
         Sep-91

         Sep-94

         Sep-97

         Sep-00

         Sep-03

         Sep-06

         Sep-09

         Sep-12

         Sep-15

         Sep-18

                                                                                                                           When Forward                         Full
                                                                                                                            P/E < 16x                          Period

    Past performance is no guarantee of future results. YTD: year to date. Left chart: Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: The ratio of a company's
    current share price to its operating earnings with estimates (a measure of valuation). Right chart: Full period: average of all rolling 12-month periods
    since 1990. Note that since 1990, there have been 21 instances when the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio was below 16%, representing about 20% of the
    periods over that time frame. Source: Haver Analytics, Standard and Poor’s, Fidelity Investments, as of June 30, 2018.
6
SECTOR UPDATE
    Consumer Discretionary Appears Well Positioned for Gains
    As a cyclical sector, consumer discretionary has historically benefited from profit recoveries. Another positive
    signal for consumer discretionary can be found in improving wage growth trends, which tend to boost consumer
    spending power. This constructive consumer backdrop has helped lift the sector’s performance, bringing it into the
    top spot on a YTD return basis. Two key indicators suggest wages will continue to accelerate into 2019.

    A Growing Percentage of Small Business                                                         Hourly Earnings Have Often Accelerated When
    Owners Say They Have Been Raising Wages                                                        More Small Businesses Were Raising Wages
    Small Business Owners Raising Worker Compensation (Past 3 Mos.)                                 Acceleration in Avg. Hourly Earnings (NTM, By Survey Result Quartiles)

    40%                                                                                             4%
                                                                                                                                                                          3.1%
    35%                                                                                             3%

    30%                                                                                                                                                   2.1%
                                                                                                    2%
    25%
                                                                                                    1%
                                                                                                                                    0.5%
    20%
                                                                                                    0%
    15%
                                                                                                   -1%
    10%

     5%                                                                                            -2%
                                                                                                                 -2.3%
     0%                                                                                            -3%
                                                                                                            1st Quartile—        2nd Quartile          3rd Quartile   4th Quartile—
                                                                                                              Lowest %                                                  Highest %
    -5%
                                                                                                            Raising Wages                                             Raising Wages
          1984
          1985
          1987
          1988
          1990
          1991
          1993
          1994
          1996
          1997
          1999
          2000
          2002
          2003
          2005
          2006
          2008
          2009
          2011
          2012
          2014
          2015
          2017

                                                                                                                              Small Business Survey Results

    YTD: year to date. Left chart: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey of small business owners shows the net percentage of
    respondents who say that they have raised worker compensation over the past 3 months. Source: Haver Analytics, NFIB, Fidelity Investments, as of
    June 30, 2018. Right chart: Acceleration in average hourly earnings based on NFIB survey results by quartile. Period measured: 1984 to present.
7   Source: Haver Analytics, NFIB, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fidelity Investments, as of June 30, 2018.
SECTOR UPDATE
    Two Key Indicators Signal Further Recovery in Corporate Profits
    Two important indicators of profit growth have recently turned positive: capital spending (capex) and business
    lending. When combined, they have significantly increased the odds of sustained corporate profit growth.
    Industrials has particularly benefited from prior capex recoveries. Capex has strengthened recently due in part to
    acceleration in commercial and industrial lending, supported by healthy bank balance sheets and low default rates.

    Capital Spending Growth Has Turned Positive,                                           Commercial and Industrial Lending has Recently
    and Suggests the Profit Recovery Will Continue                                         Recovered, Likely Driving Stronger Capex
    Capital Spending of the Top 3,000 Stocks by Market Capitalization (Mil. $)             Commercial and Industrial Loan Growth (13-Week Change)

    1,200,000                                                                              10%

                                                                                           8%
    1,000,000
                                                                                           6%

     800,000                                                                               4%

                                                                                           2%
     600,000
                                                                                           0%

     400,000                                                                               -2%

                                                                                           -4%
     200,000
                                                                                           -6%

             0                                                                             -8%

                                                                                                 May-16
                                                                                                 May-04

                                                                                                 May-06

                                                                                                 May-08

                                                                                                 May-10

                                                                                                 May-12

                                                                                                 May-14

                                                                                                 May-18
                                                                                                 Jan-13

                                                                                                 Sep-15
                                                                                                 Jan-03
                                                                                                 Sep-03

                                                                                                 Jan-05
                                                                                                 Sep-05

                                                                                                 Jan-07
                                                                                                 Sep-07

                                                                                                 Jan-09
                                                                                                 Sep-09

                                                                                                 Jan-11
                                                                                                 Sep-11

                                                                                                 Sep-13

                                                                                                 Jan-15

                                                                                                 Jan-17
                                                                                                 Sep-17
                 1962
                 1964
                 1967
                 1970
                 1973
                 1976
                 1979
                 1981
                 1984
                 1987
                 1990
                 1993
                 1996
                 1998
                 2001
                 2004
                 2007
                 2010
                 2013
                 2015
                 2018

    Source: Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve, Fidelity Investments, as of June 30, 2018.
8
SECTOR UPDATE
    Capex Growth, Valuations Positive for Transportation Stocks
    Within industrials, the transportation industry group has historically been a major beneficiary of the nascent stages
    of prior capex recoveries. In addition, transportation stocks are currently trading at low valuations relative to their
    own history and their profit margins have been in a persistent uptrend—all constructive signals for the industry
    group moving forward.

    Transportation Stocks Appear Cheap Relative to                                                              Expanding Profit Margins Also Suggest a
    Their Historical Valuations                                                                                 Positive Outlook for the Industry Group
    Transportation Industry Group Relative Price-to-Sales Ratio                                                 Transportation Industry Group EBIT Margin

    1.2                                                                                                         15%

    1.0                                                                                                         13%

                                                                                                                                        Long-Term Trend
    0.8                                                                                                         11%
                                                            Average

    0.6                                                                                                           9%

    0.4                                                                                                           7%

    0.2                                                                                                           5%

    0.0                                                                                                           3%

                                                                                                                        May-89
                                                                                                                        Apr-77

                                                                                                                         Jul-84

                                                                                                                        Mar-94

                                                                                                                        Apr-06

                                                                                                                         Jul-13

                                                                                                                        May-18
                                                                                                                        Feb-82

                                                                                                                        Oct-91

                                                                                                                        Feb-11
                                                                                                                        Aug-67

                                                                                                                        Nov-74

                                                                                                                        Sep-79

                                                                                                                        Dec-86

                                                                                                                        Aug-96

                                                                                                                        Nov-03

                                                                                                                        Sep-08

                                                                                                                        Dec-15
                                                                                                                        Jan-70
                                                                                                                        Jun-72

                                                                                                                        Jan-99
                                                                                                                        Jun-01
          May-89
          Oct-91

          May-18
          Apr-77

          Apr-06
          Feb-82
           Jul-84

          Mar-94

          Feb-11
           Jul-13
          Aug-67

          Nov-74

          Sep-79

          Dec-86

          Aug-96

          Nov-03

          Sep-08

          Dec-15
          Jan-70
          Jun-72

          Jan-99
          Jun-01

    Left chart: Relative price-to-sales ratio: the ratio of a company’s current share price to reported sales relative to historical levels (a measure of valuation).
    Right chart: EBIT: earnings before interest and taxes. Source: Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments, as of Jun 30, 2018.
9
SECTOR UPDATE
    Pricing Power Could Lift Returns of Railroad Stocks
    As global profits have recovered since 2017, railroad stocks (within the transportation industry group) have gained
    significant pricing power—a key driver of the industry's performance relative to the broader market. When the
    industry’s prices have risen at this rate in the past (near the middle of the historical range), railroad stocks have had
    a high probability of outperforming, outpacing the market the majority of the time.

    Railroad Stocks Have Been Able to Gain Pricing                                                       Amid Strong Pricing Power, Railroad Stocks
    Power in Recent Years                                                                                Have Historically Outperformed
    Producer Price Index for Line-Haul Railroads (PPI, Year-over-Year Change)                             Odds of Rail Stocks Outperforming the Market By PPI Quartile (NTM)

    20%
                                                                                                         90%                                                   84%

    15%                                                                                                  80%

                                                                                                         70%                                67%                             66%
    10%
                                                                                                         60%
                                                                                                                        53%
                                                                                                         50%
      5%
             Quartiles
              2&3                                                                                        40%
      0%                                                                                                 30%

                                                                                                         20%
     -5%
                                                                                                         10%

   -10%                                                                                                   0%
           07-Feb

           08-Dec
           09-Nov

           18-Feb
           04-May
           Dec-97
           Nov-98
            Oct-99

            10-Oct

           15-May
           Sep-00
           01-Aug

           06-Mar

           11-Sep
           12-Aug

           17-Mar
             02-Jul

            05-Apr

            16-Apr
           03-Jun

           09-Jan

             13-Jul
           14-Jun

                                                                                                                   Quartile 1—          Quartile 2          Quartile 3   Quartile 4—
                                                                                                                     Lowest                                               Highest
                                                                                                                                            PPI YoY % Change

   Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Left chart: Producer price index (a weighted index of prices at the wholesale, or producer, level
   by industry) for line-haul railroads, not seasonally adjusted. Dotted lines indicate the middle two quartiles of the historical PPI year-over-year percentage
   change, representing somewhat of a “sweet spot” for the industry’s pricing power. Source: Haver Analytics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fidelity
   Investments, as of June 30, 2018. Right chart: Period measured: 1962 to present. Performance relative to the top 3,000 stocks by market
10 capitalization. Source: Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments, as of June 30, 2018.
SECTOR UPDATE
     Can Technology Stocks Continue Their Run?
     Despite concerns about whether technology stocks can continue to outperform, a number of constructive signals
     bode well for the sector. For example, the sector’s current forward P/E ratio is relatively low compared to history
     and its profit margins have surpassed prior peaks, suggesting a strong backdrop for the sector moving forward.

     Technology Valuations Appear Inexpensive                                                             And Its Profit Margins Have Surpassed Prior
     Relative to the Sector’s History                                                                     Peaks—A Positive Signal for the Sector
     Technology Relative Forward P/E Ratio                                                                Technology EBIT Margin

     4.0                                                                                                  25%

     3.5
                                                                                                          20%
     3.0

     2.5                                                                                                  15%

     2.0

                                                                                                          10%
     1.5                                                                       Average

     1.0
                                                                                                            5%
     0.5

     0.0                                                                                                    0%     Jul-67

                                                                                                                  May-72

                                                                                                                  Mar-77

                                                                                                                  May-01
                                                                                                                  Apr-89

                                                                                                                   Jul-96

                                                                                                                  Mar-06

                                                                                                                  Apr-18
                                                                                                                  Oct-74

                                                                                                                  Feb-94

                                                                                                                  Oct-03
                                                                                                                  Dec-69

                                                                                                                  Aug-79

                                                                                                                  Nov-86

                                                                                                                  Sep-91

                                                                                                                  Dec-98

                                                                                                                  Aug-08

                                                                                                                  Nov-15
                                                                                                                  Jan-11
           May-81

           May-88

           May-95

           May-02

           May-09

           May-16

                                                                                                                  Jan-82
                                                                                                                  Jun-84

                                                                                                                  Jun-13
           Feb-76

           Feb-83

           Feb-90

           Feb-97

           Feb-04

           Feb-11

           Feb-18
           Nov-77
           Aug-79

           Nov-84
           Aug-86

           Nov-91
           Aug-93

           Nov-98
           Aug-00

           Nov-05
           Aug-07

           Nov-12
           Aug-14

     Left chart: Forward P/E ratio relative to the sector’s history. Right chart: EBIT: earnings before interest and taxes. Source: Haver Analytics, Fidelity
     Investments, as of June 30, 2018.
11
SECTOR UPDATE
    Tech Leadership Not Outsized Compared to Prior Top Sectors
    Although technology has led the market for some time, its excess returns over the last 12 months were significantly
    lower than the average annual outperformance of market-leading sectors dating back to 1962. In fact, the average
    top-performing sector outpaced the broader market by approximately 20% in a given year, twice the magnitude of
    technology’s 10% lead over the broader market during the past 12 months.

    Technology’s Outperformance Over the Last 12 Months Has Been About
    Half That of the Average Top-Performing Sectors Since 1962
    Sector Relative Returns (Avg. 1-Year Historical Returns by Sector Ranking vs. Sector Returns and Rankings over the Last 12 Months)
      Average Relative Return           Return Over the Last 12 Months

    25%

    20%

    15%
                    TEC
    10%

     5%                             FIN
                                                    CND
     0%
                                                                   HTH             ENE
    -5%                                                                                            MAT             IND
   -10%                                                                                                                            UTL

   -15%                                                                                                                                             RE
                                                                                                                                                            TEL
   -20%                                                                                                                                                           CNS

   -25%
                   1               2               3               4               5               6               7               8               9        10    11
                                                                            Sector Performance Rankings

   Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Blue bars represent historical average annual returns relative to the top 3,000 stocks by market
   capitalization by sector performance ranking, since 1962. Green bars show the performance over the last 12 months of each of the 11 sectors, and their
12 current performance rankings. Source: Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments, as of June 30, 2018.
Glossary and Methodology
     Glossary                                                                                          Methodology
     Bear Market: At least a 20% correction in the stock market.                                       Business Cycle: The business cycle as used herein reflects fluctuation of activity in the U.S.
                                                                                                       economy and is based on Fidelity’s analysis of historical trends.
     Cycle Hit Rate: Calculates the frequency of a sector outperforming the broader equity market
     over each business cycle phase since 1962.                                                        Fundamentals: Sector rankings are based on equally weighting the following four fundamental
                                                                                                       factors: EBITDA growth, earnings growth, ROE, and FCF margin. However, we evaluate the
     Dividend Yield: Annual dividends per share divided by share price.                                financials and real estate sectors only on earnings growth and ROE because of differences in
     Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA): A non-GAAP              their business model and accounting standards.
     measure often used to compare profitability between companies and industries, because it          Relative Strength: Compares the strength of a sector versus the S&P 500 Index over a six-
     eliminates the effects of financing and accounting decisions.                                     month period, with a one-month reversal on the latest month; identifying relative strength
     Earnings per Share Growth: Measures the growth in reported earnings per share over the            patterns can be a useful indicator for short-term sector performance.
     specified past time period.                                                                       Relative Valuations: Valuation metrics for each sector are relative to the S&P 500. Ratios
     Earnings Yield: Earnings per share divided by share price. It is the inverse of the price-to-     compute the current relative valuation divided by the 10-year historical average relative
     earnings (P/E) ratio.                                                                             valuation, eliminating the top 5% and bottom 5% values to reduce the effect of potential outliers.
                                                                                                       Sectors are then ranked by their weighted average ratios, weighted as follows: P/E: 35%; P/B:
     Free Cash Flow (FCF): The amount of cash a company has remaining after expenses, debt             20%; P/S: 20%; FCF yield: 20%; and dividend yield: 5%. However, the financials and real estate
     service, capital expenditures, and dividends. High free cash flow typically suggests stronger     sectors are weighted as follows: P/E: 59%; P/B: 33%; and dividend yield: 8%.
     company value.
     Free-Cash-Flow Yield: Free cash flow per share divided by share price. A high FCF yield often
                                                                                                       Primary Contributors
     represents a good investment opportunity, because investors would be paying a reasonable          Fidelity Management & Research Company, Equity Division: The Equity division within
     price for healthy cash earnings.                                                                  Fidelity Asset Management consists of 11 portfolio groups, as well as Select and Advisor Focus
                                                                                                       sector portfolios. Each group is responsible for portfolio management supported by in-depth
     Full-Phase Average Performance: Calculates the (geometric) average performance of a
                                                                                                       fundamental research.
     sector in a particular phase of the business cycle and subtracts the performance of the broader
     equity market.
     Median Monthly Difference: Calculates the difference in the monthly performance of a sector
     compared with the broader equity market, and then takes the midpoint of those observations.
     Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: The ratio of a company’s share price to reported accumulated
     profits and capital.
     Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The ratio of a company's current share price to its reported
     earnings. A forward P/E ratio typically uses an average of analysts’ published earnings
     estimates for the next 12 months.
     Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: The ratio of a company’s current share price to reported sales.
     Relative Strength: The comparison of a security’s performance relative to a benchmark,
     typically a market index.
     Return on Equity (ROE): The amount, expressed as a percentage, earned on a company’s
     common stock investment for a given period.
     Risk Decomposition: A mathematical analysis that estimates the relative contribution of
     various sources of volatility.

13
Appendix
     Unless otherwise disclosed to you, any investment or management recommendation in                Business Cycle Definition: The typical business cycle depicts the general pattern of
     this document is not meant to be impartial investment advice or advice in a fiduciary            economic cycles throughout history, though each cycle is different. In general, the
     capacity, is intended to be educational, and is not tailored to the investment needs of          typical business cycle demonstrates the following:
     any specific individual. Fidelity and its representatives have a financial interest in any
     investment alternatives or transactions described in this document. Fidelity receives            Early cycle: The economy bottoms and picks up steam until it exits recession, then
     compensation from Fidelity funds and products, certain third-party funds and products,           begins the recovery as activity accelerates. Inflationary pressures are typically low,
     and certain investment services. The compensation that is received, either directly or           monetary policy is accommodative, and the yield curve is steep.
     indirectly, by Fidelity may vary based on such funds, products, and services, which can          Mid cycle: The economy exits recovery and enters into expansion, characterized by
     create a conflict of interest for Fidelity and its representatives. Fiduciaries are solely       broader and more self-sustaining economic momentum but a more moderate pace of
     responsible for exercising independent judgment in evaluating any transaction(s) and             growth. Inflationary pressures typically begin to rise, monetary policy becomes tighter,
     are assumed to be capable of evaluating investment risks independently, both in                  and the yield curve experiences some flattening.
     general and with regard to particular transactions and investment strategies.
                                                                                                      Late cycle: Economic expansion matures, inflationary pressures continue to rise, and
     Information presented herein is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and is not a       the yield curve may eventually become flat or inverted. Eventually, the economy
     recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Views expressed        contracts and enters recession, with monetary policy shifting from tightening to easing.
     are as of the date indicated, based on the information available at that time, and may
     change based on market and other conditions. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions                Please note that there is no uniformity of time among phases, nor is the chronological
     provided are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments or its       progression always in this order. For example, business cycles have varied between 1
     affiliates. Fidelity does not assume any duty to update any of the information.                  and 10 years in the U.S., and there have been examples when the economy has
                                                                                                      skipped a phase or retraced an earlier one.
     References to specific investment themes are for illustrative purposes only and should
     not be construed as recommendations or investment advice. Investment decisions                   Market Indexes: The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index is a
     should be based on an individual’s own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk.              market value-weighted index that covers the universe of dollar-denominated, fixed-rate,
                                                                                                      non-investment-grade debt.
     This piece may contain assumptions that are “forward-looking statements,” which are
     based on certain assumptions of future events. Actual events are difficult to predict and        The FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that
     may differ from those assumed. There can be no assurance that forward-looking                    is designed to measure the performance of tax-qualified Real Estate Investment Trusts
     statements will materialize or that actual returns or results will not be materially different   (REITs) that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the NYSE MKT LLC, or the
     from those described here.                                                                       NASDAQ National Market List with more than 50 percent of total assets in qualifying
                                                                                                      real estate assets secured by real property. Mortgage REITs are excluded.
     Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
                                                                                                      The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stocks
     Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.                                                 chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to represent U.S.
     All indexes are unmanaged. You cannot invest directly in an index. Index or benchmark            equity performance. S&P 500 is a registered service mark of Standard & Poor’s
     performance presented in this document does not reflect the deduction of advisory fees,          Financial Services LLC. Sectors and industries are defined by the Global Industry
     transaction charges, and other expenses, which would reduce performance.                         Classification Standard (GICS).

     Stock markets are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer,          The MSCI World ex. U.S. Index is a market capitalization-weighted index designed to
     political, regulatory, market, or economic developments.                                         measure the investable equity market performance for global investors of large cap
                                                                                                      stocks in developed markets, excluding the United States.
     Because of its narrow focus, sector investing tends to be more volatile than investments
     that diversify across many sectors and companies. Sector investing is also subject to
     the additional risks associated with its particular industry.

14
Appendix
     The S&P 500 sector indices include the standard GICS sectors that make up the S&P            Third-party marks are the property of their respective owners; all other marks are the
     500 Index. The market capitalization of all S&P 500 sector indexes together comprises        property of FMR LLC.
     the market capitalization of the parent S&P 500 Index; each member of the S&P 500
     Index is assigned to one (and only one) sector.                                              If receiving this piece through your relationship with Fidelity Institutional Asset
                                                                                                  Management® (FIAM), this publication is provided by Fidelity Investments Institutional
     Sectors are defined as follows: Consumer Discretionary: companies that provide               Services Company, Inc.
     goods and services that people want but don’t necessarily need, such as televisions,
     cars, and sporting goods; these businesses tend to be the most sensitive to economic         If receiving this piece through your relationship with Fidelity Personal & Workplace
     cycles. Consumer Staples: companies that provide goods and services that people use          Investing (PWI) or Fidelity Family Office Services (FFOS), this publication is provided
     on a daily basis, like food, household products, and personal-care products; these           through Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC.
     businesses tend to be less sensitive to economic cycles. Energy: companies whose             If receiving this piece through your relationship with Fidelity Clearing & Custody
     businesses are dominated by either of the following activities: the construction or          Solutions or Fidelity Capital Markets, this publication is for institutional investor or
     provision of oil rigs, drilling equipment, or other energy-related services and equipment,   investment professional use only. Clearing, custody, or other brokerage services are
     including seismic data collection; or the exploration, production, marketing, refining,      provided through National Financial Services LLC or Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC,
     and/or transportation of oil and gas products, coal, and consumable fuels. Financials:       Member NYSE, SIPC.
     companies involved in activities such as banking, consumer finance, investment banking
     and brokerage, asset management, and insurance and investments. Health Care:                 850789.1.0
     companies in two main industry groups: health care equipment suppliers and                   © 2018 FMR LLC. All rights reserved.
     manufacturers, and providers of health care services; and companies involved in the
     research, development, production, and marketing of pharmaceuticals and
     biotechnology products. Industrials: companies whose businesses manufacture and
     distribute capital goods, provide commercial services and supplies, or provide
     transportation services. Materials: companies that are engaged in a wide range of
     commodity-related manufacturing. Real Estate: companies in two main industry
     groups—real estate investment trusts (REITs), and real estate management and
     development companies. Technology: companies in technology software and services
     and technology hardware and equipment. Telecommunication Services: companies
     that provide communications services primarily through fixed-line, cellular, wireless,
     high-bandwidth, and/or fiber-optic cable networks. Utilities: companies considered to be
     electric, gas, or water utilities, or companies that operate as independent producers
     and/or distributors of power.

15
You can also read