Regional Skills Assessment Tayside Insight Report
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Regional Skills Assessment Tayside Insight Report
2 Contents 1 Introduction 3 Appendix 1: Oxford Economics The importance of skills planning in Definitions 58 Scotland 4 Regional Skills Assessments and Skills Appendix 2: Key Sectors 60 Planning 6 National Skills Issues 6 Content 7 2 The Tayside Region 8 Tayside’s Economy and Place 9 Tayside’s People 19 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside 26 Employment 27 Occupations 29 Sectors 36 Qualifications 42 4 Implications for Skills Planning 46 Tayside - Current Strengths and Weaknesses 48 Looking to the Future 50 Gaps in data/Evidence 52 Implications for Skills Planning 53 Utilising the Evidence Base in Planning 56 Contact Us 57
1
IntroductionRegional Insight Report 1 Introduction 4
The Importance of Skills Planning in Scotland market. Work is ongoing on these proposals that The vision for skills alignment is for “skills services to be
Skills, alongside other wider and social and economic include regional partnership models, learner journey fully aligned to deliver the learning and skills necessary
conditions, help to achieve the stated Scottish models and, of most relevance to skills planning, for sustainable and inclusive economic growth.”
Government purpose of: proposals for skills alignment.
A project is in place to achieve this; the purpose of
Figure 1.1 which is to align the relevant functions of the Scottish
“creating a more successful country, Scottish Skills Planning Model Funding Council (SFC) and Skills Development Scotland
with opportunities for all of Scotland (SDS) to ensure that Scotland’s people and businesses
to flourish, through increasing are equipped with the right skills to succeed in the
economy, not just now but in the future.
sustainable economic growth”
The proposals include the development of a Five Step
Significant public sector funding (some £2 billion) is Planning Model (Figure 1.2) and a Governance Structure
invested annually to support skills development in (Figure 1.3)
Scotland. This, alongside employer and other partner
investment, amounts to a substantial resource. To Figure 1.2
ensure it is invested wisely it is important to ensure that Five Step Model
there is a robust evidence base to guide decisions.
Current Scottish Government Strategy for skills includes
Scotland’s Economic Strategy, Scotland’s Labour Market
Strategy and Scotland’s Youth Employment Strategy
and also the recent UK Industrial Strategy. These,
alongside the Scottish Skills Planning Model (Figure
1.1), influence skills investment.
The skills planning model is evolving. Phase 2 of the
Enterprise and Skills Review that reported earlier this
year included a range of proposals to achieve the dual
goals of (1) a dynamic, inclusive globally competitive
economy and (2) a high performing, inclusive labour5
At the time of writing, SFC and SDS are engaged Figure 1.3 Regional Skills Assessments and Skills Planning
with Scottish Government to develop a detailed Governance Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs) were first launched
implementation plan to carry through the reforms in 2014 and have evolved over time as a result of
identified. Work that has been agreed to take place in feedback from an independent review (2015 by the
the short term includes: Training and Employment Research Unit) and ongoing
partner consultation, as part of a process of continuous
• The development of Terms of Reference for a improvement. Their purpose is to:
strategic Skills Hub of the Strategic Board – Skills
Committee; • Support partners in strategic skills investment
planning including:
• Development of the Five Step Model to confirm the • The two national skills agencies – SDS
deliverables of each stage; and and SFC (in conjunction with Regional
Colleges, Strategic Bodies and College
• The appointment of a Director of Skills Alignment Boards) Enterprise Agencies and
reporting jointly to the Directors of SDS and SFC. Regional and local partnerships; and
• Enterprise Agencies and regional and
Evidence developed through Regional Skills local partnerships; and
Assessments now and in their future evolution can help
inform Step One of the Five Step Model. This iteration, • Identify gaps in evidence that require to be
unlike in previous versions, focuses much more on addressed.
demand side evidence to support Step One of the
proposed planning process. To ensure an inclusive approach to their development,
dissemination and utilisation, RSAs are produced
by SDS in partnership with Highlands and Islands
Enterprise (HIE), Scottish Enterprise (SE), SFC and the
Scottish Local Authorities Economic Development
Group (SLAED). RSAs include the use of recently
published datasets. Inevitably, when using published
data there is a time lag but the data contained isRegional Insight Report 1 Introduction 6
the most up to date available at the time of writing. smaller geographical units, the less reliable they are skills planning and outlining potential forecasts for the
Feedback from partners has indicated that an area likely to be. The historical data on which the forecasts future. Nationally, it is recognised that, following the
of evidence they wished to see more was in relation are based is subject to revision and may be volatile, recession:
to forecasting. Given this, RSAs also include forecast particularly at a sub-regional and sub-sectoral level.
data that has been commissioned through Oxford Therefore forecasts at a higher, less disaggregated level • Employment in Scotland has recovered and is
Economics. These forecasts are based on three factors: are more robust than the detailed breakdowns. They above pre-recession levels;
also cannot take into account recent developments that
• National/regional outlooks – all the forecasting may be happening at local level or an individual firm’s • Many key sectors have had good employment
models they operate are fully consistent with the perspective, so inevitably they lack nuance. growth despite difficult trading conditions (see
broader global and national forecasts which are Appendix 2);
updated on a monthly basis; Finally, the occupational (SOC) and sectoral (SIC)
classifications should be looked at to understand • Scotland has maintained a highly skilled workforce;
• Historical trends in an area (which implicitly factor how an occupation or industry is defined. Links have and
in supply side factors impinging on demand), been given to facilitate this in the relevant sections.
augmented where appropriate by local knowledge Education, for example, is an industrial sector that takes • The economy offered a range of opportunities for
and understanding of patterns of economic in a wide variety of teaching and educative functions young people after school.
development; and e.g. driving instructors.
That said, on demand for skills, growth rates for the
• Fundamental economic relationships which It is recommended therefore that users examine trends Scottish economy remain behind that of the UK
interlink the various elements of the outlook. over time rather than focusing on changes in individual and, although productivity has improved, Scotland’s
years, use caution at the more granular level and record remains poor. Also, although employment has
As with all forecasts, certain caveats need to be applied. examine occupational and sectoral definitions where recovered since the recession we have seen:
They are based on what we know now and include past relevant.
and present trends projected into the future. They can • A rise in ‘non standard’ jobs - part time
therefore be affected by potential disruptors (e.g. Brexit) National Skills Issues employment, self employment and non-
and unforeseen events and their value is in identifying Prior to the publication of RSAs, SDS has published a permanent employment have grown;
likely directions of travel rather than predicting exact national skills assessment ‘Jobs and Skills in Scotland’.
figures. This report highlights key strengths of Scotland’s • An ‘hour glass’ labour market structure which
skills alongside challenges to be addressed, as well as presents challenges for progression in the
The more disaggregated they become, especially at pointing to drivers that will have an impact on skills and workplace, underemployment and under utilisationRegional Insight Report 1 Introduction 7
of skills; and • These sectoral changes will affect the occupational embrace that change.
profile of Scotland’s workforce. There will be an
• Low pay and in-work poverty as of continuing increase in the number of elementary clerical Content
concern. and service occupations and business and It is within this national context that this RSA has been
public service professionals. But job losses in developed. The RSA for Tayside is in three parts (1)
The report points to key areas of uncertainty for manufacturing will see fewer process, plant a summary A3 infographic (2) an insight report and
the skills environment such as the impact of Brexit, and machine operatives and skilled metal and (3) a slidepack of charts and tables for utilisation by
productivity challenges, societal change and electrical trades; and partners. This report – the insight report - is in three
automation. It also provides some indicative forecasts parts:
for the future through modelling by Oxford Economics • Scotland’s largest urban centres will lead job
that highlight the potential: creation. Together, Edinburgh and Glasgow are • The Tayside Region – an introduction to the region’s
forecast to account for three in every four new jobs economy and its people;
• Political uncertainty is likely to restrict the pace created. Employment is forecast to fall in around
of economic development in the short term, and a third of Scottish council areas over the forecast • Demand for skills – past, current and forecast
this will curtail job creation. Growth is forecast to period (2017 to 2027 inclusive). demand for total employment, occupations and
accelerate towards the end of this decade, but sectors; and
Scotland is projected to underperform the UK as a Finally, the report outlines four significant challenges
whole; and opportunities in relation to jobs and skills: • Implications for planning – key issues and
challenges, gaps in evidence and an assessment
• Total employment in Scotland is forecast to rise by 1. Boosting productivity will be vital for our long term of implications for skills and wider economic and
84,800 by 2027, equivalent to an average annual prosperity. social development planning.
growth rate of 0.3 percent. The comparable figure
for the UK is 0.5 percent; 2. Our growth needs to be more inclusive.
• The next decade (2017 to 2027 inclusive) will see a 3. Scotland’s demographics represent some
shift in the sectoral composition of employment in significant challenges - and Brexit may exacerbate
Scotland. Rising employment in business services, these.
wholesale and retail trade, construction and health
and social work will be accompanied by a reduction 4. The world of work is changing - we need to support
in manufacturing and public administration; businesses and individuals to navigate and2
The Tayside
RegionRegional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 9
The Tayside region is made up of three local authority In terms of local authority performance: Service industries account for almost 70 percent of
areas; Angus, Dundee and Perth and Kinross. This the Tayside economy and will underpin growth in the
section outlines key characteristics of the region • Of the three local authorities Perth and Kinross regional outcome area over the decade ahead. The most
focusing on its economy, place and people. It is and Dundee City made the greatest contributions dynamic industries in terms of GVA growth are forecast
intended to be a brief introduction rather than a to the national economy in 2015 (both three per to be Information and communications, Professional,
comprehensive picture and will necessarily need to cent of total GVA) followed by Angus (two per scientific and technical services and Administrative
leave some elements out as a result. cent). Compared to other City regions, Dundee City and support services.
accounted for a low proportion of national GVA.
Tayside Economy and Place Stirling was the only City region to rank lower; and However, because of their size, Construction, Real estate
GVA and Productivity activities and Human health will contribute most to
In relation to the Scottish economy, Tayside is • Perth and Kinross had the highest productivity overall GVA growth locally. Public administration and
characterised by low GVA in all local authorities and (£45,788) in the region and the ninth highest defence and Education sectors will act as drag on the
high productivity in Angus and Perth and Kinross but productivity in Scotland. Productivity in Angus economy as they contract by 6.1 per cent and 0.6 per
lower productivity in Dundee City (Figure 2.1). The (£45,425) was lower but above the national average. cent over the period.
region has a mixed urban and rural economy and based Dundee City had the lowest productivity in the
on 2015 data, the region contributed £8,609 million region (£39,640), which was the ninth lowest in
in GVA1; around seven per cent of output for Scotland, Scotland and approximately £3,500 below the
the sixth highest of the 14 regions. At 12 per cent of national average.
regional output (2015 figures), the Wholesale and Retail
trade sector contributed the highest sectoral output for Looking to the future, GVA growth in Tayside is forecast2
the region, followed by Manufacturing (11 per cent), to average 1.4 per cent between 2017 and 2027. This
Human health (11 per cent) and Real estate (10 per is slower than forecast growth over the same period for
cent). Regional productivity (measured as GVA per job, Scotland (1.7 per cent) and that of the UK (2.0 per cent).
2015) was £43,260, lower than the Scottish average of The pace of growth is expected to slow in the short term
£45,900. The three local authorities did however have as the consumer sector loses momentum in the face of
varying economic performance: rising inflation, businesses investing cautiously due to
Brexit-related uncertainty, and fiscal policy remaining
tight.
1 GVA is the measure of the value of goods and services pro 2 Forecasts by Oxford Economics
duced.Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 10
Figure 2.1
Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by Region, 2015
Source: Oxford Economics
Productivity
Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire
2
High GVA, High Productivity
Low GVA, High Productivity
Edinburgh, East & Midlothian
1
West
Glasgow Region
Fife
Lanarkshire
Output(GVA)
2 −1 Tayside 1 2
Ayrshire
Low GVA, Low Productivity High GVA, Low Productivity
Highlands and Islands
West Lothian
Forth Valley
Dumfries & Galloway
South of Scotland −1
Borders
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean.Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 11
Figure 2.2
Distribution of GVA (£million, constant 2013 prices) and Productivity (per job) by local authority, 2015
Source: Oxford Economics
Productivity
Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire
2
Low GVA, High Productivity High GVA, High Productivity
Moray Edinburgh City
East Renfrewshire
1
Inverclyde South Ayrshire
West Dunbartonshire
East Dunbartonshire Renfrewshire
Perth and Kinross
Angus Fife Glasgow City
Clackmannanshire South Lanarkshire North Lanarkshire
2 1 1 2 3
Output (GVA)
East Lothian North Ayrshire
Highland
Falkirk West Lothian
Midlothian Dundee City
Low GVA, Low Productivity
Dumfries and Galloway
East Ayrshire −1
Eilean Siar
Scottish Borders
Shetland Islands Stirling
Argyll and Bute
Orkney Islands
High GVA, Low Productivity
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean.Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region
12
The Business Base
There is a total of 13,195 businesses operating within
the Tayside Region, just under half (46 per cent) are
based in Perth and Kinross, with 30 per cent in Angus,
and 24 per cent in Dundee City. The largest sector
(in terms of the business base) within the region is
Professional, scientific, and technical, accounting for
16 per cent of all businesses, whilst Construction and
Agriculture, forestry and fishing account for a further 12
per cent each.
At the local authority level, the sectoral breakdown of
the business base is largely in keeping with the regional
breakdown, with Professional, scientific and technical
the largest sector in each of the three areas (indeed
accounting for almost one fifth of all businesses in
Angus).Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 13
Table 2.1
Sectoral Breakdown of Business Base, (2016)
Source: UK Business Counts.
Tayside Angus Dundee City Perth and Kinross Scotland
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 12% 17% 1% 16% 10%
Production 6% 7% 7% 6% 6%
Construction 12% 12% 12% 12% 11%
Motor trades 3% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Wholesale 3% 3% 4% 3% 3%
Retail 8% 7% 10% 7% 8%
Transport & storage 3% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Accomm.& food services 9% 7% 11% 8% 8%
Information & communication 4% 2% 5% 4% 6%
Financial & insurance 1% 1% 2% 1% 2%
Property 3% 2% 5% 3% 3%
Professional, scientific & technical 16% 19% 15% 14% 19%
Business administration & support services 7% 6% 6% 7% 7%
Public administration & defence3 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Education 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Health 4% 3% 6% 3% 4%
Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services 8% 6% 10% 7% 7%
Total 13,195 3,925 3,215 6,035 171,905
3 Please note from ONS: “All figures are rounded to avoid disclosure. Values may be rounded down to zero and so all zeros are not necessarily true zeros. Totals across tables may differ by minor amounts due
to the disclosure methods used. Furthermore, figures may differ by small amounts from those published in ONS outputs due to the application of a different rounding methodology.”Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 14 In relation to all regions in Scotland, the business density (number of businesses per 10,000 population) in Tayside ranks seventh out of the 14 regions. Within that region however, there are local authority differences. Perth and Kinross has a relatively high business density, ranking 10th out of 32 local authorities. Angus is ranked slightly lower than Perth and Kinross at 13th, but Dundee City has one of the lowest business densities in Scotland, ranking 29th out of 32 local authorities. In terms of business size (2016), the region has a similar picture to Scotland in that micro businesses (employing fewer than nine people) make up the majority of businesses within the region. This is the same throughout the local authorities within the region. Table 2.2 Proportions of businesses by size band, 2016 Source: UK Business Counts % of businesses by size band Tayside Angus Dundee City Perth and Kinross Scotland 0-9 87% 89% 83% 88% 88% 10-49 11% 9% 14% 10% 10% 50-249 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 250+ 0% 0% 1% 0%
Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 15
The number of business births within a region can Business deaths have also remained flat: 22 per 10,000
indicate dynamism in that region’s economy. By population in 2005 and from 2013, this has only risen
business births per 10,000 of the population, Tayside to 28 business deaths per 10,000 population (2015).
ranks ninth out of 14 regions within Scotland. However, So finally, if we look at the business survival rate, using
much like business density, there are local authority 2010 as the baseline year, this has been falling overall.
differences. Perth and Kinross ranks 12th out of 32 local
authorities, whereas Angus and Dundee City rank 19th Figure 2.3
and 20th out of 32 local authorities. Business activity, Business births and deaths per 10,000 population
in terms of business births, is split among the local (2005-2015) and Business survival index (2011-
authorities in this region with Perth and Kinross driving 2015)
this activity. Source: ONS Business Demography and Mid-Year Population Estimates
Business Births per 10,000 population Business Deaths per 10,000 population
Looking at births, deaths and survival rates together Business Survival Rates, 2011-15
over time enables us to see the broader picture, per 10,000
population Index = 2010
however. 40 100
Recession
Pre-recession, the number of business births fluctuated 35 (2008-09) 90
within the region, and then started to decline during 80
the economic downturn; business deaths steadily 30
70
increased during this period. Since then, the number
25
of business births has fluctuated and spiked in 2011, 60
leading to a steady decline towards 2015. This has been 20 50
accompanied by fluctuations in business deaths which
started to steadily increase between 2013 and 2015. 15 40
30
Overall, the picture pre- and post- recession for business 10
20
births is fairly flat and currently at 34 businesses
created per 10,000 population (2015), compared to 32 5 10
in 2005. 0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note: for Business Survival Rates only available for 2010-15 in Evidence Base.Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 16
Business Expenditure on Research and able 2.3
T
Development (BERD) Resident and workplace based earnings, 2016
The value of BERD in Tayside is one of the highest (Median)
in Scotland. Measured by BERD per head of the Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2016 Provisional figures.
population, expenditure in Tayside was £125 compared Figures based on weekly pay of all workers.
to a Scotland average of £162. Dundee has the most Area Resident Workplace Difference between resident and
investment in the region (£276) possibly due to the Earnings Earnings workplace earnings
university presence, however Angus and Perth and
Kinross are very low. Dundee City £404 £420 -£16
Perth and Kinross £421 £413 £8
Earnings Angus £406 £318 £88
The average weekly earnings across the Tayside region
Scottish Average £434 £432 £2
are lower than the Scottish average for both resident
and workplace based earnings – by £24 and £48
respectively. There are also a number of intra-regional The difference between where a person lives
variations – e.g. workplace earnings range from £420 (resident earnings) and where they work (workplace
in Dundee to £318 in Angus. The biggest variation in earnings) can tell us whether:
workplace and resident earnings is in Angus at £88.
Further information is provided in Table 2.3. • Individuals are more likely to travel to other
local authorities to work and, therefore,
• Whether their skills are retained within that
local authority or ‘leak’ outside.
Commuting flows can also help us understand this.Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 17
Commuting low in Perth (15 per cent). This could, perhaps, be
Across the region, levels of out-commuting are mixed, partially explained by the number of rural areas within
being particularly low in Dundee, and highest in Angus. Perth and Kinross, with people having to seek more
Of those commuting outwith their local authority skilled employment in larger, urban areas.
area, the most common destinations are elsewhere in
Tayside, confirmed through 2011 UK Census data: Table 2.4
Tayside out commuting proportions by
• Two fifths of those resident in Angus commute out occupational grouping (SOC)
of the area for employment, with 27 per cent going Source: Origin Destination statistics by Local Authority, open access
to Dundee and three per cent to Perth and Kinross; (WB07BUK_la), UK Data Service
Note: denominator = total trips out of the local authority5
• Just 15 per cent commute out of Dundee, with ten SOC 1-3 SOC 4-6 SOC 7-9
per cent remaining within the region – six per cent
in Angus and four per cent in Perth and Kinross; and Angus 48% 29% 23%
Dundee 52% 25% 23%
• Around one quarter (23 per cent) of those within Perth and Kinross 64% 21% 15%
Perth and Kinross commute out of the area, with
nine per cent travelling to Dundee, four per cent to
Fife and three percent to Edinburgh City.
If we look only at those who commute out of their
local authority by occupational grouping, we see
that the largest grouping in each area in higher level
occupations (SOC 1-3)4, ranging from 48 per cent
in Angus to 64 per cent in Perth and Kinross. Out-
commuting among those in SOC 7-9 is the lowest
across all three local authority areas, and is particularly
4. Managers, Directors and Senior Officials (SOC 1), Professio- 5 A link to the Standard Occupational Classification is here:
` nal Occupations (SOC 2) and Associate Professional and https://onsdigital.github.io/dp-classification-tools/stand
Technical Occupations (SOC 3) ard-occupational-classification/ONS_SOC_hierarchy_view.
htmlRegional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 18
Deprivation That said, SIMD identifies deprived areas - not people.
There is a total of 529 datazones within Tayside – 36 per Guidance on the use of SIMD by Scottish Government
cent in Dundee, 35 per cent in Perth and Kinross, and highlights that:
29 per cent in Angus. Of this total, 47 (nine per cent)
are within the 10 per cent most deprived datazones • Not all deprived people live in deprived areas: Two
in Scotland, whilst 37 (seven per cent) are within the out of three people who are income deprived do not
10% least deprived. Dundee has a disproportionately live in deprived areas; and
high share of the most deprived datazones, with 41 of
the 47 (87 per cent). This is substantially higher than • Not everyone in a deprived area is deprived: Just
either Perth and Kinross (four, nine per cent) or Angus under one in three people living in a deprived area
(two, four per cent). Within Dundee, there are pockets are income deprived.6
of deprivation across the city, notably within the city
centre and the east, as well as in and around Lochee in This is important when analysing deprivation,
the west of Dundee. Within Perth and Kinross, three of particularly in rural areas.
the four most deprived datazones are within Perth city
centre, whilst the other is within Blairgowrie in the east
of the region and within Angus, the two most deprived
datazones are within Arbroath.
Outwith Dundee and Perth city centres, there is
relatively little severe deprivation across the region.
Where deprivation does exist, it is typically in the
population centres across local authority areas. The
more rural areas suffer from relatively little deprivation,
other than in terms of geographic access to services,
which is a particular issue in areas in the north of the
region.
6 http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0050/00504809.pdfRegional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 19
Figure 2.4
Deprivation in Tayside by SIMD (2016)7 Deciles 1-10
Source: Scottish Government and Ordnance Survey, 2016
Angus
Tayside Deprivation (SIMD 2016)
Deciles 1-2 (Most Deprived)
Deciles 3-4
Dundee
Deciles 5-6
Deciles 7-8
Perth and Kinross
Deciles 9-10 (Least Deprived)
7 See SIMD interactive map here: http://simd.scot/2016/#/
simd2016/BTTTFTT/11/-4.0237/56.1325/. Data contains
Scottish Government data © Crown copyright 2016.
Base: Ordnance Survey © Crown copyright 2016 & database
right 2011-6.Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 20
Tayside’s People of residents aged in their mid-50s and older above the Within the region and for Scotland as a whole, the
In introducing Tayside’s people, we outline information national average. overall finding of population change by age band is
on demography, labour market participation, growth of those aged 65 and over (Table 2.5). Both Perth
qualifications and attainment. Based on 2014 population projection data, it is and Kinross and Dundee City are expected to have
estimated that the population of Tayside will be growth in the youth (0-15 years) and mid working age
Demography 444,763 by 2039, an increase of 30,963 (seven per (30-49) populations. Angus however will experience
The total population of Tayside in 2016 was 415,470. Of cent). This growth is the same as the forecast national a decline in these age groups in excess of the rate of
regions that contained one of Scotland’s cities, Tayside rate of change over the period. Population growth will decline nationally.
was the second smallest, with only Forth Valley, which however be uneven with proportionally the greatest
encompasses Stirling, smaller. Within the region, Perth growth occurring in Perth and Kinross (12 per cent),
and Kinross had the greatest number of residents almost double the national rate. The growth rates in
(150,680) accounting for more than one third (36 per Dundee City (six per cent) and Angus (three per cent)
cent) of the region’s population. Dundee City was the will be slower and below the national average.
second largest local authority in the region and of a
similar size to Perth and Kinross with a population of Table 2.5
148,270, 36 per cent of the region’s total. Angus was the Population projections, % change by age band,
smallest local authority in the region accounting for 28 2014 – 2039
per cent (116,520) of the population. Source: National Records of Scotland
Overall the age profile of Tayside is older than the 0 -15 16-29 30-49 50-64 65-74 75+
population of Scotland. This is due to the larger than Angus -3% -11% -8% -14% 14% 88%
average population of people aged mid-40s and older Dundee City 8% -9% 11% -5% 11% 46%
in Angus and Perth and Kinross. The age profiles of
the local authorities within the region vary, as the Perth and Kinross 6% 1% 3% -8% 25% 92%
population in Dundee City is younger than the national Tayside 4% -7% 3% -9% 17% 76%
average with proportionally more people aged from the Scotland 1% -8% -2% -6% 27% 85%
late teens to late 20s. It is likely that a large number
of these people will be residing in the local authority
due to the further and higher education opportunities
it offers. Angus and Perth and Kinross were both
characterised by older populations, with the proportionRegional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 21
Labour Market Participation This varied greatly from the rate in Perth and Kinross Finally, the youth (16-24) unemployment rate10
The overall employment rate in the region (73 per cent) and Angus as both were below the national and regional for Tayside was 15 per cent in 2016, in line with
was the same as the national average (73 per cent) in averages at 4.1 per cent and 3.1 per cent respectively. the national rate. Again, there were some regional
2016. Within the region the employment rate varied, The ILO unemployment rate in Angus was one of the differences; Dundee City had the highest youth
being highest and above the regional and national lowest in Scotland. unemployment rate in the region (19 per cent), followed
averages in Angus (78 per cent) and Perth and Kinross by Perth and Kinross (13 per cent) and Angus (11 per
(77 per cent). Dundee City had one of the lowest The economic inactivity rate in Tayside was 23 per cent cent).
employment rates in Scotland at 66 per cent. in 2016, the same as the national rate9. In the region,
economic inactivity was highest in Dundee City (29
As Figure 2.5 shows, Angus and Perth and Kinross had per cent). This was the highest economic inactivity
similar patterns of labour market participation. Both rate of all local authorities. People can be economically
had low unemployment and low inactivity. Dundee City inactive for a number of reasons, for instance they
differed as it had the opposite with high unemployment might be a student, looking after their family and home,
and high inactivity. long term or temporarily sick, discouraged or retired
(before aged 65). Within Dundee City there are a number
As of 2016, 9,600 working-age people were unemployed of further and higher education campuses which means
in the region, accounting for seven per cent of the a number of those inactive will be students. However as
national total (128,400)8. More than half (51 per cent) the rate is in excess of other local authorities that have
of those unemployed were in Dundee City. Perth and a similar student footprint a number of people will be
Kinross accounted for almost one third (30 per cent) inactive for some of the other reasons mentioned. Perth
and the remaining 19 per cent were in Angus. The ILO and Kinross (20 per cent) and Angus (19 per cent) both
unemployment rate in the region was 4.9 per cent, had economic inactivity rates below the regional and
which was the same as the national average. As the national average. The rates in these local authorities
distribution of unemployed people would suggest, were two of the lowest in Scotland.
within the region the ILO unemployment rate was
highest in Dundee City (7.1 per cent). This was the
fourth highest rate of all 32 local authorities.
8 Source: ILO Unemployment rate. 11 Source: Annual Population Survey, 16-24 Unemployment
9 Source: Annual Population Survey, Economic Inactivity rate
RateRegional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region
22
Figure 2.5
Unemployment (ILO) and Economic Inactivity by RSA Region, Jan-Dec 2016
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based)
Economic inactivity rate,
working age population 16−64
2
Glasgow Region Ayrshire
Low Unemployment, High High Unemployment, High
Inactivity Inactivity
Edinburgh, East & Midlothian 1
Fife
West Lothian Tayside
16−64 Working Age
-2 −1 1 2 Population (ILO)
Lanarkshire Dumfries & Galloway
West Region
Forth Valley
South of Scotland Borders
Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire
−1
Low Unemployment, Low High Unemployment, Low-
Inactivity Inactivity
Highlands and Islands
2
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean.Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 23
Figure 2.6
Unemployment (ILO) and Economic Inactivity by Local Authority, January to December 2016
Source: Annual Population Survey (resident based)
Economic inactivity rate,
working age population 16−64
Dundee City
Glasgow City East Ayrshire
North Ayrshire
Low Unemployment, High High Unemployment, High
Inactivity 1 Clackmannanshire Inactivity
Inverclyde
Edinburgh City
South Ayrshire Aberdeen City
West Dunbartonshire
Fife
Stirling
East Lothian
North Lanarkshire
East Dunbartonshire West Lothian 16−64 Working Age
Dumfries and Galloway
Midlothian Scottish Borders Population (ILO)
Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire
East Renfrewshire Moray
Perth and Kinross Falkirk
Argyll and Bute Angus Highland
Eilean Siar
−1 Aberdeenshire
−2
Low Unemployment, Low High Unemployment, Low-
Inactivity Inactivity
Shetland Islands
−3
−1 1 2 3
Note: the data is scaled and thus the units used are standard deviations from the mean. ILO Unemployment estimate for Orkney Islands is not available since the group sample size is zero or disclosive (0-2) and thus omitted.Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 24 Working Age Qualifications (16-64) The population of Tayside had a very similar qualifications profile to Scotland as a whole. The region had the same level of advanced qualifications (SCQF 7-12) as the national average (both 44 per cent in 2016). The level of intermediate qualifications (SCQF Levels 5 and 6) in the region was also the same as the national average, at 28 per cent. The proportion of the population within Tayside with low (SCQF 1-4) or no qualifications was 18 per cent, compared to 19 per cent nationally. Within the region the qualification profile of the local authorities varied, Perth and Kinross had a highly qualified population whilst Angus was similar to Scotland as a whole, and Dundee City had a greater proportion of residents with no or low level qualifications. Overall, more than one fifth (21 per cent) of the population in Dundee City had no or low (SCQF 1-4) qualifications; the equivalent proportions in Angus and Perth and Kinross were 18 per cent and 14 per cent respectively. The proportion of the population qualified to SCQF 7-12 was highest in Perth and Kinross (50 per cent) and lower in Angus (42 per cent) and Dundee City (41 per cent). All three local authorities had a similar proportion of the population with intermediate qualifications (SCQF 5-6), ranging from 29 per cent in Angus and Dundee City to 27 per cent in Perth and Kinross.
Regional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 25
School Leavers’ Destinations Employment as an initial leaver destination has The economic downturn may have affected the
In 2015/16, 34 per cent of school leavers in Tayside increased across the region and Scotland as a whole destinations of school leavers in 2009/10, with
went into higher education, slightly lower than the since 2009/10. Regionally more than one quarter young people becoming unemployed due to labour
Scottish average (37 per cent). Within the region, (28 per cent) of school leavers entered employment market contraction at the time and entering further
the proportion going into higher education varied after school. Within the region this ranged from or higher education due to a lack of opportunities in
from 36 per cent in Angus to 31 per cent in Dundee 35 per cent in Perth and Kinross to 22 per cent in the labour market. Economic recovery will account
City. In all three local authorities the proportion Dundee City.
for the increase in the proportion of young people
of school leavers going into higher education has
entering employment after school, and reductions
increased since 2009/10, although it remains below The proportion of Young people becoming unem-
the national average in each. ployed after school was the same as the national in other post school destinations.
average (seven per cent) in the region. The pro-
The proportion of school leavers going into further portion becoming unemployed after school was, In terms of the 2017 Annual Participation Rate12
education has decreased since 2009/10, with three however, above the national average in Dundee City (16-19 year olds), Perth and Kinross had a rate of
percentage points fewer leavers in the region taking (11 per cent) and Angus (eight per cent), but below 93.1 per cent, above the Scotland average of 91.1
this option and decline occurring in all three local the national average in Perth and Kinross (three per cent. In Angus the proportion of young people
authorities. Overall more than one quarter (27 per per cent). Positively, since 2009/10 to 2015/16 the participating (91.9 per cent) was also above the na-
cent) of school leavers in Tayside went into further proportion of school leavers becoming unemployed tional average. Within the region the participation
education as their initial leaver destination. This has declined in all three local authorities. measure was lowest in Dundee City (87.6 per cent),
was higher than the national average (22 per cent). which was the lowest rate of all local authorities in
By local authority the proportions varied, with Over the period 2009/10 and 2015/16, within the Scotland.
almost one third (31 per cent) of school leavers in region there has been a universal increase in the
Dundee City going into further education. In Perth proportion of school leavers entering higher educa-
and Kinross, 21 per cent of leavers took this option. tion or employment. Decreases have occurred in the
12 2017 Annual Participation Measure, % of 16-19 year olds
Compared to other local authorities, Dundee City proportion of young people entering further educa- participation 1st April 2016 to 31st March 2017. As agreed
and Angus had two of the highest proportions of tion or unemployment. by Scottish Ministers, from August 2017, the Annual Partic
school leavers entering further education. ipation Measure will be adopted within the Scottish Gov
ernment’s National Performance Framework. It is replacing
the school leaver destination follow up as the source of the
indicator, “increase the proportion of young people in learn
ing, training or work”, published through Scotland Performs.
See below for details:
http://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/me
dia/43580/2017_annual-participation-measure-report
-29th-august-2017.pdfRegional Insight Report 2 The Tayside Region 26 Table 2.6 School Leaver Destinations, 2009/10 and 2015/16 Source: Scottish Government School Leavers Destination Dataset Destination Tayside Angus Dundee City Perth and Kinross Higher education (%) 2009/10 31% 34% 26% 33% 2015/16 34% 36% 31% 35% Change 3% 1% 5% 2% Further education (%) 2009/10 30% 32% 34% 24% 2015/16 27% 28% 31% 21% Change -3% -4% -2% -3% Employment (%) 2009/10 21% 19% 16% 28% 2015/16 28% 26% 22% 35% Change 6% 7% 6% 6% Unemployment (%) * 2009/10 14% 12% 19% 11% 2015/16 7% 8% 11% 3% Change -7% -5% -8% -8% * Unemployment Seeking and Unemployment Not Seeking
3
Demand for Skills
in TaysideRegional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside 28
Demand13 for Skills in Tayside has since fluctuated, peaking at 202,700 in 2008 then
This section outlines past, current and forecast trends decreasing in the wake of the recession.
for total employment and sectors, occupations and Over the forecast period, an overall increase of one
qualifications. These forecasts have been developed per cent is forecast from the 2017 baseline (despite
by Oxford Economics14 and, like any forecasts, they an initial slump), lower than the projected Scotland
are based on what we know now; past and present growth rate of three per cent.
trends projected into the future. They can therefore
be affected by potential disruptors (e.g. Brexit) and Figure 3.1
unforeseen events and their value is in identifying Total Employment Projections (jobs), 2000-2027
likely directions of travel rather than predicting exact Source: Oxford Economics.
figures. Finally, the more disaggregated they become,
especially at smaller geographical units, the less Total employment (jobs)
reliable they are likely to be. 240
Total Employment15 230
As shown in Figure 3.1, total employment (jobs) within
Tayside currently (2017) sits at 200,000, representing 220
regional employment growth of five per cent since
2000 (compared to 10 per cent nationally).Having 210
202.7 200.0 201.8
grown quickly from 2000 to 2005, employment in 201.4
'000s
200
Tayside 190.7
190 196.1
13 Note: the analysis here is workplace based. Note the
forecast period for skills demand is defined as follows:
Total employment: 2017 and 2027; Total requirement: 180
2017 and 2027 (inclusive). For more information on Oxford
Economics definitions please see Appendix 1.
14 For more information of the methodology used in the
170
Oxford Economic forecasts, please see the Regional Skills
Assessments section of the Skills Development Scotland 160
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
website:
http://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-we-do/
partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/
15 Note 2017 is itself a forecast29
Regional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside
At local authority level, total employment both Figure 3.2
Dundee City (containing 39 per cent of the region’s Total Employment (jobs) projections, 2000-2027
employment) and Angus (with 22 per cent) have by status and gender
been relatively steady. Between 2000 and 2017, Source: : Oxford Economics.
employment in Angus decreased by one per cent
while Dundee City remained unchanged. In contrast,
employment in Perth and Kinross (with 39 per cent Male full-time Male part-time Female full-time Female part-time
of total regional employment) increased by 14 per 100
cent over this period, driving regional growth. Over the
forecast period, both Dundee and Perth and Kinross 90
are forecast to increase by one per cent, whilst Angus
will remain unchanged. 80
70
Moving on to total employment by gender and status
(full-time/part-time), Figure 3.2 illustrates the change 60
in employment over time.
'000s
50
The number of male full-time jobs peaked prior to
the recession and, following a post-recession dip, has
40
since recovered to the same level. Over the forecast 30
period a moderate decline is projected, although the
overall picture is relatively steady. Female full-time 20
employment similarly declined during the recession,
however, surpassed female part-time employment for 10
the first time in 2008, and further growth is expected
over the ten years to 2027. Part-time employment is
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
forecast to remain steady for both males and females.Regional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside 30 Occupations In this section, we look at two measures of forecast demand: Total Employment: the numbers within each occupational grouping. The total numbers employed in 2017 and then in 2027 are contrasted. Total Requirement: instead of overall numbers employed, we look at the numbers of positions that are actually forecast to open up, mainly due to people retiring but also net migration and movement into other occupations (replacement demand) as well as those that open up due to new, additional positions being created (expansion demand). Total Requirement is summed across the years 2017-2027 (inclusive). At any one time, Total Employment will be higher than Total Requirement; that is, the total numbers in the occupational structure will be higher than the positions that open up within that structure.
Regional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside 31
Occupational Structure – Total Employment past
to present
Figure 3.3 illustrates how the occupational structure of
Tayside has changed between 2000 and 2017.
Figure 3.3
Tayside Occupational Structure, 2000 and
2017(people, 000s)
Source: Oxford Economics Professional occupations increased by 11 per cent over
2000 2017
this time, remaining the largest occupational group,
200 187.0 with 32,800 people in 2017. There was even more
substantial growth within the Sales and customer
180 173.1
service, and Caring, leisure and other services sectors (of
160 42 per cent and 31 per cent, respectively).
140 All but two occupational groups increased in number
between 2000 and 2017. The only categories to decline
120
were Administrative and secretarial roles (-19 per cent)
and Process, plant and machine operatives (-nine per
'000s
100
cent).
80
Growth is forecast across four occupational groups
60
between 2017 and 2027, although each will only see
40 29.6 32.8
a very moderate increase. The largest such increase is
17.6 19.8 21.8 23.0
18.7 19.1 20.2 19.1
21.8 21.3 22.1 in Caring, leisure and other service occupations, of just
16.2 14.3
20 14.5 15.3 13.0 500.
0
Managers, Professional Associate Admin. & Skilled trades Caring, Sales & Process, plant Elementary Total
directors & occ. professional secretarial leisure & customer & machine occ.
senior & tech. occ. occ. other service service operatives
officialsRegional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside
Occupational Structure – Forecast Total Figure 3.4
Employment Total employment (people, 000s) by occupation,
In terms of total employment (people), the largest 2017 and 2027
occupational grouping across Tayside is Professional Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Data labels for 2027 only.
occupations, with 32,900 people projected to come
Managers, directors & senior officials 17.5
under this category in 2027 (Figure 3.4). The next
largest occupational groupings are Elementary Professional occupations 32.9
occupations (22,500) and Sales and customer service
roles (21,900). Associate professional & technical occupations 21.8
Administrative & secretarial occupations 18.3
2017
Skilled trades occupations 20.2
2027
Caring, leisure & other service occupations 19.5
Sales & customer service occupations 21.9
Process, plant & machine operatives 12.6
Elementary occupations 22.5Regional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside 33
As shown in Table 3.1, by 2027 the proportion of
occupations in the Tayside which are higher skilled
is forecast to be just under two fifths (39 per cent).
However, at 33 per cent, this figure is lower in Angus
than the other two areas and the Tayside average. In
turn, Angus then has slightly higher proportions of
middle and bottom level jobs. The 2027 figures are
forecast to be much the same as 2017 for each area.
Table 3.1
Proportion of occupations at higher, middle and
lower levels of labour market, 2027
Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are
categorised as follows: Higher level16– SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC
codes 4 to 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.
Tayside Angus Dundee City Perth & Kinross
Higher level jobs 39% 33% 39% 41%
Middle level jobs 31% 33% 30% 31%
Lower level jobs 30% 34% 31% 28%
The occupational structure of Tayside, as well as Perth In Angus, however, the structure is flat, with
and Kinross and Dundee City, could be described as approximately the same proportion at all levels of the
an inverted triangle, with the largest proportion of occupational structure.
employment at the top and similar proportions at the
middle and bottom level.
16 See the following for the use of SOC 1-3 to define high
level jobs:http://www.gov.scot/About/Performance/scotPer
forms/TechNotes/graduatesRegional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside 34
Occupational Structure – Forecast Total Table 3.2
Requirement Expansion demand, replacement demand and
In terms of total requirement (people), 78,500 people total requirement (people, 000s), Tayside, 2017-
are forecast to be required over the period 2017-2027 2027
(Table 3.2). This is attributable to replacement demand Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data.
as, although there is minor expansion demand for Occupation Expansion Replacement Total
some occupational groups, this is negative overall. Demand Demand Requirement
Managers, directors & senior officials -0.1 3.7 3.6
Professional occupations 0.05 16.9 16.9
Associate professional & technical occupations -0.1 6.6 6.5
Administrative & secretarial occupations -0.5 6.2 5.7
Skilled trades occupations 0.05 7.6 7.6
Caring, leisure & other service occupations 0.5 5.8 6.3
Sales & customer service occupations -0.2 12.9 12.6
Process, plant & machine operatives -0.4 3.8 3.4
Elementary occupations 0.3 15.5 15.8
Total -0.4 79.0 78.5Regional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside 35
Professional occupations are forecast to have the Table 3.3
highest level of total requirement (16,900 people), with Percentage of total requirement at higher, middle,
57 per cent of these in Dundee City. This is followed and lower levels of labour market, 2017-2027
by Elementary occupations (15,800 people) and Sales Source: Oxford Economics Forecast data. N.B. These groupings are catego-
and customer service occupations (12,600, 58 per cent rised as follows:Higher level – SOC codes 1 to 3; Middle level – SOC codes 4 to
in Dundee City). 6; and Lower level – SOC codes 7 to 9.
Tayside Angus Dundee City Perth and Kinross
At the two-digit SOC level, the Professional
occupations with the highest requirement are Higher level jobs 34% 31% 36% 34%
Teaching and research professionals (7,400 people) Middle level jobs 25% 27% 27% 20%
and Health professionals (4,300 people).
Lower level jobs 41% 42% 37% 46%
The requirement for Elementary occupations is, at
two-digit level, dominated by Elementary clerical and
service occupations (12,000 people).
Finally, at this disaggregated level there is also a high
requirement for Sales occupations (12,700 people),
Caring personal service occupations (5,300 people)
and Administrative occupations (4,300 people).
Occupational demand therefore takes on something
of an hourglass shape at regional level (Table
3.3) influenced by the demand for Professional
occupations at the top and Elementary and Sales
and customer service occupations at the bottom.
While this is the case in each of the areas as well as at
regional level, demand is stronger for bottom level jobs
in Perth and Kinross and Angus than in Dundee City.Regional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside 36 Conclusions on Occupational Demand For Total Employment, the occupational structure of the Tayside region in 2017 and 2027 could be described as an inverted triangle, with the largest proportion of employment at the top and lowest, by a small margin, at the bottom. This is also true of each of Dundee City and Perth and Kinross, while Angus has a flatter shape. For Total Requirement however, actual openings are highest at the bottom of the structure, followed by the top. The highest demand for employment is forecast to come from Professional occupations and Elementary occupations. Expansion demand is forecast to be limited in Tayside.
Regional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside 37
Sectors Figure 3.5
Utilising the Oxford Economics forecast data once Total employment (jobs) by industrial sector, 2017
more, we look at the sectoral structure, in terms and 2027
of forecasts by industrial sector and key sector for Source: Oxford Economics. Note: Data labels for 2027 only.
Scotland up to 2027, including employment and total
requirement (job openings arising from expansion
Human health and social work 33.7
demand and replacement demand).
Wholesale and retail trade 31.6
Total Employment by Industrial Sector17 Accommodation and food services 18.1
When considering employment (jobs) by industrial Education 15.6
sector in Tayside, the highest current employing Construction 13.7
sectors are Human health and social work activities, Manufacturing 13.0
with around 33,100 jobs, and Wholesale and retail
trade, with around 31,000 jobs. Admin. and support services 12.2
Professional, scientific and technical 11.7
The same sectors are forecast to remain the highest Agriculture, forestry and fishing 11.1
2017
employing sectors in 2027, with Human health and Public admin. and defence 9.4
social work activities increasing slightly to 33,700 2027
Arts, entertainment and recreation 7.1
and Wholesale and retail roles rising to 31,600. The 6.4
Transport and storage
largest reduction in employment is forecast to be in
Manufacturing (1,700), and the largest increase in Other service activities 5.5
Construction (1,300 - Figure 3.5). Information and communication 4.0
Financial and insurance activities 3.0
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning 2.2
Real estate activities 2.2
Water supply, sewerage, waste management 1.2
Mining and quarrying 0.1
17 See definitions of Industrial Sectors (SIC) down to 4 digits
here: https://onsdigital.github.io/dp-classification-tools/
standard-industrial-classification/ONS_SIC_hierarchy_view.
htmlRegional Insight Report 3 Demand for Skills in Tayside 38
The next largest sectors for total employment in Human health activities accounts for 19,000 jobs
2027 are forecast to be Accommodation and food in 2017, but is forecast to rise slightly to 19,400
services (18,100 jobs), Education (15,600 jobs), and in 2027, and is therefore the largest sector at two
Construction (13,700 jobs). Agriculture, forestry and digit level within Human health and social work
fishing, with six per cent of projected total jobs in activities, which also includes Social work activi-
the region in 2027, represents a higher proportion of ties (7,600 in 2017) and Residential care activities
jobs than it does at the national level (two per cent). (6,400 in 2017).
At local authority level, Wholesale and retail is the Education currently accounts for 16,100 jobs, just
largest employment sector in Perth and Kinross over half of them in Dundee City. This is projected
and Angus, followed by Health and social work. In to decrease to 15,600 by 2027, and is the third larg-
Dundee City, Health and social work is the largest, est 2 digit SIC sector.
followed by Wholesale and retail. This is forecast to
be the case for each area in 2017 and 2027. In Accommodation and food services, 11,000
people are employed in Food and beverage services
Breaking down total employment (jobs) by 2 digit and 6,400 in Accommodation. Employment is both
SIC code in Tayside, the Retail trade18 currently has sub-sectors is projected to have minor increases
20,700 jobs, projected to increase slightly to 21,000 over the forecast period.
in 2027. In both years it is the largest employment
sector at 2 digit level, and dominates the Retail and
wholesale sector, compared to other Wholesale and
retail (5,300 in 2017) and Wholesale (5,000 in 2017).
18 Formal definition = Retail trade (except of motor trades, SIC
4.7).You can also read
