The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
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The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement April 2009
ii Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement Contents Executive Summary 1 Part 1: The Conditional Outputs 7 Part 2: The Evidence Base for the Economic Case for Enhancing Manchester Hub Capacity and Capability 13 Part 3: Disaggregated Rates of Benefit 33 Part 4: Stakeholder Aspirations 45 Part 5: Overview Of Approach To Modelling 49 Glossary 73 Text and design by Steer Davies Gleave
01 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
Executive Summary
Context on the development of alternative rail
options to meet the Conditional Output
The Manchester Hub is the network Statement and then their assessment
of rail corridors that link and cross in from an operational, financial and
and around central Manchester. The economic perspective. The Phase 2
Northern Way has identified the Hub as study will involve more detailed demand
the most fundamental rail bottleneck modelling work than Phase 1 (although
in the North of England. It limits the using the same overall structure), as
capacity, performance and connectivity well as engineering assessment.
of commuter and longer distance
passenger services that either terminate The Conditional Output
in Manchester or pass through the Hub. Statement
It therefore adversely affects journeys
between the North’s city regions too. The Conditional Output Statement
It also limits the number of trains, from for the Manchester Hub sets out
across the North and beyond, that can the question that Network Rail, in
serve Manchester Airport, the North’s collaboration with industry colleagues,
principal airport, as well as that can will attempt to answer. It seeks to
access important distribution centres for define the problem in a clear way. The
freight. Conditional Output Statement is made
up of five parts.
On 4th October 2007, the then
Department for Transport Minister of Part 1 of the Conditional Output
State, Rosie Winterton, responding Statement is a summary of the
to the work of the Northern Way, conditional outputs, numerically cross-
announced that a study would be referenced to the evidence base and
undertaken to develop proposals results of the Phase 1 modelling which
to enhance the capacity and are presented in subsequent sections
functionality of the Manchester Hub. of this document. It is important to
The Manchester Hub Study is being stress that the conditional outputs
undertaken in two phases overseen have been derived from a combination
by a Department for Transport-chaired of the evidence base set out in Part 2
Sponsors’ Group, the other members and the outputs of the modelling work.
being the Northern Way, Greater The conditional outputs also reflect the
Manchester Integrated Transport Northern Way’s established position
Authority and Passenger Transport that the North’s economic growth
Executive, and Network Rail. needs to be environmentally sustainable
and in particular the importance of the
The Sponsors’ Group asked that North contributing to the national effort
the Northern Way lead the Phase to tackle climate change.
1 study. The Phase 2 work is being
led by Network Rail. Producing the In Part 2 of this Conditional Output
Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement, the emphasis is entirely on
Statement has been the primary the evidence base, and specifically, the
purpose of the Phase 1 study and it is economic evidence base. Stakeholder
set out in this report. views and requirements (other than
some specific needs of Department for
The Outputs are described as Transport) are not included in Part 2, but
conditional because their realisation are summarised separately in Part 4.
depends on it being found possible
to devise solutions which are both
affordable and represent value for
money. The Phase 2 work is focussing
2 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement Map 1 Manchester Hub Corridors Part 3 provides further information Part 5 is a summary of the modelling that has informed the development of methodology that has been applied. the conditional outputs. It comprises a More detailed technical reports on the summary of the modelling tests carried Phase 1 economic forecasting that has out by the Northern Way to examine been undertaken by Experian and Steer a package of candidate rail service Davies Gleave’s modelling and appraisal improvements across the Manchester work have been published separately Hub and on the rail corridors leading to by the Northern Way and are available it. These results have been expressed on our website. in a user-friendly format by setting out the value of economic benefits. in each Rail Corridors corridor, and expressing the results on a To support the development the £ benefit/unit change basis. The specific Conditional Output Statement, the assumptions that lie behind these Northern Way has defined 14 rail test results are important in that they corridors, each of which converge on reflect a plausible set of incremental the Manchester Hub. These corridors improvements which were developed have been used to disaggregate from consideration of stakeholder the forecasts of future demand and requirements. By expressing the potential benefits set out in Parts 3 economic value to be gained on the and 5. They have also been used in £ benefit/unit change basis, the Part the specification of a number of the 3 analysis has a relevance that can Conditional Outputs, which are set out be applied across a wide range of in Part 1. The corridors are listed in scenarios that Network Rail may wish to Table 1 and shown geographically on consider in Phase 2. Map 1. As already noted, Part 4 gives an overview of the Northern Way’s consultation with high level stakeholders from across the North. This, along with the conclusions of a stakeholder workshop held in July 2008, led to the definition of four objectives for the Hub Study. Part 4 shows how meeting the conditional outputs set out in Part 1 will contribute to meeting the stakeholder objectives.
03 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
Table 1 Manchester Hub Corridors In themselves, the modelling tests
undertaken by the Northern Way reveal
1 Southport via Wigan some key pointers on the scale of the
2 Preston and the North via Bolton economic benefit from the Manchester
3 Blackburn Hub. Two demand growth scenarios
have been considered. In the Trend
4 Bradford via Rochdale
scenario we have assumed that the
5 Yorkshire and the Humber & the North’s economy grows in line with the
North East via Leeds Department for Transport’s standard
6 Glossop / Hadfield appraisal assumptions. In the Trend
7 Marple / Romiley Plus scenario we have assumed that
the North’s regions and city regions
8 Yorkshire and the Humber & the
successfully deliver their economic
East Midlands via Sheffield
development plans, which results in
9 Buxton the North’s economy growing at a
10 London, Birmingham and the faster rate. A Test Timetable has been
South (via WCML) used to assess the potential level of
11 Manchester Airport benefit from Hub enhancement. This
Test Timetable is a plausible set of
12 Chester via Northwich
incremental enhancements to journey
13 Liverpool via Irlam (CLC) times and service frequencies together
14 Liverpool / Chester via Warrington with potential inter-connections
(Chat Moss) between passenger services on each
of the rail corridors that converge in the
Manchester Hub.
Key Findings The most significant finding from this
new work is simply this: in a scenario
There is an extensive evidence base
with Trend growth a package of
about how the economic performance
plausible incremental service
of the North is affected by transport
enhancements to commuter and
links in general and rail links in
longer distance passengers services
particular. Evidence shows that to
offering greater connectivity to and
support economic growth there needs
across central Manchester brings
to be adequate capacity, and that
overall economic benefits of £12.7bn
journeys can be made reliably and with
(PV over the life of the project). In the
reasonable journey times:
Trend Plus scenario these benefits
●● within city regions; increase to £16.2bn PV.
●● between city regions; and This indicates that Manchester Hub is a
●● to access international gateways. challenge worth devoting considerable
resources to tackling, whether or not
It shows that within city regions there
the Trend or Trend Plus projections are
remains scope to connect areas of
used as a basis for the Phase 2 work.
economic need with areas of economic
growth. Not all city regions are equally It is also clear that the distribution of
well connected. Facilitating economic benefits is widely spread: Manchester
growth may require provision of new Hub is not about one or two key
links to provide new capacity and flows. Instead, we observe that
capability. It shows the key role that growth prospects are highest on south
rail has to play in delivering economic Manchester local commuter markets,
growth. whilst the greatest rates of benefits
are on the main corridors linking the
04 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
adjacent city regions to Manchester. Whether or not appropriate measures
There are also very significant and schemes can be developed to
benefits related to West Coast Main secure this range and type of benefit will
Line services to London and in the depend on what emerges from Network
railfreight sector. Manchester Hub is Rail’s work ahead. Until then, the
about solving a problem that affects Outputs are described as conditional
the development of national, regional because their realisation depends on it
and local rail services, about freight being found possible to devise solutions
and passenger services. The scale of which are both affordable and represent
benefits on offer suggests that it will value for money.
be right to consider radical as well as
incremental solutions.
Some of the key results are
summarised in the panel below.
Summary of key results
●● Within the North, commuter and inter-urban services on the five corridors to Yorkshire
and the Humber and North East via Leeds, Preston and the North via Bolton, Yorkshire
and the Humber and East Midlands via Sheffield and the two to Liverpool dominate rail
demand on services that use the Manchester Hub. The West Coast Main Line Corridor
to the south is the largest of all.
●● In the Trend and Trend Plus scenarios these corridors provide the largest quantity of
forecast growth.
●● In the Trend and Trend Plus scenarios the fastest rate of growth is projected to occur
on corridors where commuting to Manchester is the dominant flow. The corridors to
Marple/Romiley, Buxton and Manchester Airport corridors have the highest rates of
growth in the Trend scenario. In the Trend Plus scenario, the corridors to Bradford via
Rochdale, Marple/Romiley and Buxton have the highest growth rates.
●● In the Trend and Trend Plus scenarios the greatest level of incremental benefit per unit
of generalised journey time improvement is in the following corridors:
●● London, Birmingham and the South (via WCML)
●● Yorkshire and the Humber & North East via Leeds
●● Preston and the North via Bolton
●● Yorkshire and the Humber & East Midlands via Sheffield
●● Manchester Airport
●● In the Trend scenario the greatest level of incremental benefit per unit increase of
capacity is in the following corridors:
●● Yorkshire and the Humber & East Midlands via Sheffield
●● London, Birmingham and the South (via WCML)
●● Preston and the North via Bolton
●● Yorkshire and the Humber & North East via Leeds
●● Liverpool via Irlam
●● In the Trend Plus scenario the Leeds and Preston corridors are reversed in this
ranking.
05 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
What is clear, however, is that the the future. The discussions at the
preferred way forward needs to support stakeholder meeting helped inform the
the growth of rail commuting and package of service improvements that
business travel into central Manchester, was tested by the modelling work and
the most significant location of helped inform the specification of the
employment in the North’s largest city conditional outputs. Reports on the
region. It needs to support enhanced high level consultation exercise and the
connectivity between the North’s city July 2008 stakeholder group can be
regions and between the North and downloaded from the Northern Way’s
the rest of the country. It needs to website (www.thenorthernway.co.uk).
support the growth of Manchester
Airport by increasing rail’s mode share Prior to the finalisation of the conditional
as the airport grows. Finally, it needs outputs set out in Part 1 of this
to support the growth in inter-modal report, a second stakeholder meeting
containers, both for established markets was held on 18th March 2009. The
and by facilitating new markets too. then draft conditional outputs were
presented to that meeting and were
Stakeholder Engagement broadly endorsed by the attendees.
The conditional outputs have also been
As we have already noted, high level endorsed by the Northern Way Steering
consultation with stakeholders from Group and the Northern Transport
across the North led to the definition Compact.
of four objectives for the Manchester
Hub study. These were discussed and
confirmed at a stakeholder meeting
held on 29th July 2008. This meeting
also furthered our understanding of
what stakeholders see as problems
and issues around the Manchester
Hub, as well as their aspirations for
6 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
07 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
Part 1: The Conditional Outputs
Note: The number in square brackets [ ] The Northern Way has identified 10 Plus) can be expected by 2020. Of
at the end of each Conditional Output
refers to documents cited in Part 2 and conditional outputs that Network Rail, in course, service enhancements arising
included in the Part 2 list of references. collaboration with industry colleagues, from the Hub solutions are likely to
Paragraph and table references shown
in curly brackets { } identify the relevant
should seek to meet when developing increase demand further. Differential
sourcing available from the results of and then identifying the way forward for growth rates are forecast on each
the modelling work summarised in Part the Manchester Hub. These relate to: corridor, with typically the shorter
3, and in the case of growth, Part 5.
These form the evidence-base for the distance suburban corridors having
inclusion of each Conditional Output 1. Capacity and Flexibility higher average growth rates and the
within the overall Conditional Output
longer distance corridors showing the
Statement. 2. Carbon Reduction
greatest amounts of growth.
3. Performance
1.3 Adequate capacity needs to be
4. Journey Times provided to accommodate Trend
growth to 2019/20 in longer distance,
5. Growth Centres in Greater commuting and other local rail journeys,
Manchester with average crowding being no greater
than implied by the capacity metrics
6. Connectivity to Deliver Economic
for 2013/14 for Manchester in the
Benefits
Department for Transport’s 2007 High
7. Manchester Airport Level Output Statement for the rail
industry1.
8. Trans Pennine
1.4 For the Trend scenario after
9. North South Links and High Speed 2019/20 and in relation to the Trend
Rail Plus scenario, the identified Manchester
Hub proposal should be ‘future-
10. Freight proofed’ to accommodate these higher
growth rates without a requirement
for further major infrastructure works
1. Capacity and Flexibility beyond the identified proposals but
through measures such as train
1.1 Future growth in demand has lengthening.
been projected on the basis of detailed
studies of population and employment 1.5 It is important to note that these
trends and the application of demand demand projections do not fully take
models consistent with Department for into account the economic recession. In
Transport (DfT) standard econometric practice, this may be taken as having a
inputs and rail forecasting methods. delay impact on projections of demand
In the Trend scenario it is assumed growth.
that the North’s economy grows in line
[Part 2 References: 5, 6, 14, 15, 16, 20, 22, 24,
with the Department for Transport’s 25, 26, 27, 28, 34]
standard appraisal assumptions. In {Part 3: Tables 1 and 2 above are from the
the Trend Plus scenario it is assumed analysis described in Part 3, also Paragraph 3.8}
that the North’s three regions and eight {Part 5: Tables 4 and 5}
city regions successfully deliver their
development plans, which results in the
North’s economy growing at a faster
rate.
1.2 The growth in demand should be
taken as the central requirement in
terms of capacity. In general, growth of
between 39% (Trend) and 54% (Trend 1 Appendix A to Delivering a Sustainable Railway Cm
7176, July 200708 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
2. Carbon Reduction 4. Journey Times
1.6 The net effect of the Manchester 1.8 In addition, the evidence is that
Hub proposals on the overall carbon for the economies of the northern city
trajectory for the transport sector regions to function effectively together,
which in due course will be adopted by they need to be provided with much
Government should be demonstrated. speedier inter-connections. There are
If possible, the effect of Manchester no absolute cut-offs or thresholds
Hub in terms of in-service operation which define acceptability for the key
should be to contribute to the trajectory journey times: quicker still, will always be
of reduced carbon emissions as set advantageous.
in national level overall targets for the
transport sector.2 1.9 However, based on the need to
achieve regular interval city centre to city
[Part 2 References: 8, 27, 28] centre times that are recognisably faster
than by car, and adopting 60 miles per
3. Performance hour as a benchmark, these are target
1.7 Network performance should be journey times for the key corridors, from
such that delay minutes on franchised a Manchester City Centre station (either
services in the Manchester area will Victoria or Piccadilly) to the principal
not be worsened by meeting the adjoining city regions3:
Manchester Hub Conditional Outputs
●● Leeds 40 minutes4 (and Bradford
and that the performance of franchised
50 minutes, recognising route
rail services in the Manchester area
characteristics)
is kept consistent with the High
●● Sheffield 40 minutes
Level Output Statement and in line
with targets set nationally. In respect ●● Chester 40 minutes
of Airport services, as the available ●● Liverpool 30 minutes
evidence is that good reliability and ●● Preston 30 minutes.
performance is of particular significance
to encourage rail use by airline 1.10 It is also of course the case that
passengers, the conditional requirement the economic and other benefits of
is to improve performance further as a commuting and other local trip making
priority. by rail are increased by reducing overall
journey times, a function of station to
[Part 2 References: 5, 6, 9, 14, 15, 16, 20, 22, 24, station times, service frequency and
25, 26, 27, 28, 34, 41] wider accessibility considerations.
[Part 2 References: 1, 5, 6, 14, 15, 16, 19, 22, 24,
25, 26, 27, 28, 34]
{Part 3: Tables 1-6}
3 Typical off-peak journey times from Manchester
Piccadilly are Leeds 55 minutes, Sheffield 48
2 Besides taking account of consequences for minutes, Chester 63 minutes, Liverpool 52 minutes,
carbon emissions from changes to the pattern and Preston 42 minutes; and from Manchester Victoria,
density of rail services (diesel and electric) arising Bradford 69 minutes In the 2007 Rail White Paper,
from the Manchester Hub, it would be appropriate the Department for Transport committed to reduce
to take into account carbon savings from diversion the Leeds journey time to 43 minutes and the
of demand away from more carbon-intensive travel Liverpool journey time to 40 minutes
modes. It is not considered appropriate at this 4 Assuming dwell times at Leeds and York are
stage to set a carbon target related to construction also minimised, this would give journey times to
phases (although this may follow subsequently as a Newcastle, Middlesbrough and Hull of 133, 124
matter of good practice). and 101 minutes respectively.09 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
5. Growth Centres in Greater ‘in scope’ for the Phase 2 work.
Manchester Similarly, while the development and
promotion of bus links is also a matter
1.11 To support the growth and for the Greater Manchester authorities,
regeneration of the Manchester/Salford the Phase 2 work will need to be
Regional Centre, from each principal rail mindful of such opportunities.
corridor5 to each sub-area6 within the
Regional Centre there should be either: [Part 2 References: 5, 14, 20]
{Part 3: Tables 1, 2, 4, 5}
●● a direct rail service; or
●● a service that requires no more than
6. Connectivity to Deliver
a single interchange for onward travel
Economic Benefits8
by rail, Metrolink or Metroshuttle. 1.15 All principal corridors9 to be
connected if possible to the same
1.12 To support growth elsewhere in
station in Manchester City Centre for
Greater Manchester, from each principal
easy passenger transfer (or through
rail corridor to each of the key town
cross-Manchester operation), as well as
centres7, there should be either:
other central area stations appropriate
●● a direct rail service; or to the travel market.
●● a service that requires no more
1.16 The economic analysis
than a single interchange, by rail or
undertaken for this project shows that
Metrolink.
cross-city movements deliver significant
1.13 To support growth outside the incremental unit benefits which in some
Regional Centre, from each principal rail cases are greater than those from point
corridor to Salford Quays there should to point improvements on existing
be a service that requires no more services. The improved connectivity
than a single interchange by bus or should therefore be used:
Metrolink.
(a) where possible, to promote direct
1.14 Recognising that the development cross-city movements (for which
and then promotion of Metrolink options train service provision and hence
is a matter for the Greater Manchester franchising costs will also generally
authorities rather than Network Rail, experience cost efficiencies), or
the future role of Metrolink tram-train
(b) where this cannot be done, to
conversions should be taken as being
facilitate convenient passenger
5 Corridor 2 (serving Preston), Corridor 4 (serving 8 The evidence from the economic analysis is
Bradford/Halifax); Corridor 5 (serving Newcastle/ that the greatest rates of benefit can stem from
Tees Valley/Hull/Leeds); Corridor 8 (serving improvement in cross-city connectivity. These
Sheffield, South Humber Bank and the East journeys have a more strongly competitive road-
Midlands); Corridor 10 (serving London/ based alternative given the more dispersed trip
Birmingham); Corridor 13 (serving Liverpool), pattern and the existence of the complete orbital
Corridor 14 (serving Chester/North Wales and motorway at Manchester. Northern Way’s analysis
Liverpool); together with Corridor 11 serving [33] shows that road congestion across the North
Manchester Airport is going to worsen, even with smarter choices,
6 The Regional Centre comprises the following sub- the application of the Highway Agency’s Managed
area: Central Business District, Retail Core, Eastern Motorways approach and Intelligent Transport
Gateway, Piccadilly Gateway, Oxford Road Corridor, Systems and therefore there is a need to provide
Spinningfields, Chapel Street, Victoria, Northern a non-congested alternative suitable for high
Quarter, Southern Gateway, The Village, Petersfield, value business use. In addition, there is a need to
Castlefield, Left Bank and Chinatown. Plans for encourage spillover effects from the key growth
the physical and transport development of these centres in the city regions to secondary centres
quarters are set out within the 2008 draft Regional where the economy is most sluggish [1,10]. This
Centre Transport Strategy. means an improvement to links such as those
between places north of Manchester to the
7 These are defined in the Local Transport Plan and
prosperous band of greater job opportunity on the
are Ashton-under-Lyne, Oldham, Rochdale, Bury,
south side of Manchester, for example.
Bolton, Wigan, Altrincham and Stockport
9 As defined in footnote 510 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
interchange. This is best done at a 8. Trans Pennine
single Manchester City Centre station
to avoid circuitous, time consuming/ Overall
counter-intuitive routeing.
1.19 The three Trans Pennine corridors
form the spine for City Region to City
Region links across the North to and
[Part 2 References: 2, 3, 5, 6, 14, 15, 16, 20, 22, from Liverpool and Central Lancashire
26, 27, 28, 31, 32, 34, 35, 36]
in the west through to Tyne and
{Part 3: Tables 2, 5}10
Wear, Tees Valley and Hull and the
7. Manchester Airport Humber in the east. To support a high
frequency, high quality, regular interval
1.17 To allow the expansion of the core express service that links all of
Airport to its airside capacity so that it the Northern City Regions in a way
can fulfil its wider potential to support designed to maximise the number
the growth of the Northern economy, it of direct city region to city region
will be necessary to maximise rail mode linkages, and meeting the enhanced
share on existing corridors and expand journey times and performance targets
the set of major rail destinations directly (Conditional Outputs 3 and 4).
accessible from the Airport to increase
overall rail mode share of surface Leeds – Manchester
access trips. As well as destinations With a 15 minute interval service (or
across the North, account needs to be better)
taken of the potential to improve links
Sheffield – Manchester
from the Airport to North Wales and the
With a 20 minute service interval
West and North Midlands.
Bradford/Halifax – Manchester
1.18 The requirement is for direct11
With a 30 minute service interval
services of at least hourly interval
service frequency in each of the [Part 2 References: 5, 6, 7, 14, 16, 20, 25, 26, 27,
principal corridors12 (30 minutes in the 28, 34, 36, 40]
case of the Yorkshire and the Humber {Part 3: Tables 3, 6}
and North East via Leeds corridor) on a
9. North South Links and High
7 day/week basis with service start and
Speed Rail
finish time giving 95% of air passengers
the option of using rail for their inbound 1.20 To meet forecasts and
and outbound legs connecting the requirements13 for a doubling of
Airport with each of the Northern city West Coast Main Line demand by
regions. Services should share in the 2026 and with such provision as
journey time gains (as in Output 4) indicated as being appropriate by the
and performance gains (as specified in National Networks Strategy Group,
Output 3). to accommodate High Speed 2
[Part 2 References: 5, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, (HS2) options to and beyond central
19, 24, 26, 27, 28, 30, 34, 41, 42] Manchester, together with a possible
{Part 3: Tables 2, 5 – line 11} parkway station.
[Part 2 References: 5, 6, 8, 14, 20, 26, 27, 28]
{Part 3: Table 7}
10 See “To Other Manchester Hub Corridors”
columns in these tables.
11 With recognition given to longer term stakeholder 13 In terms of capacity at terminals and access/
ambitions for no interchange en route and in the egress capacity, and to meet journey time and
case of Corridors 8 and 10, direct services to the performance requirements as set out in the DfT
Airport without the need to pass through central West Coast Strategy and as advised in due
Manchester. course by DfT in relation to HSR/West Coast relief
12 As defined in footnote 5 line in respect of such issues as train length and
route electrification.11 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
10. Freight
1.21 Provision for a doubling of
freight tonnage from existing and new
origins and destinations to/from the
multi-modal terminals at Trafford Park
and elsewhere in the North West by
203014.
[Part 2 References: 21, 24, 27, 26, 27, 28, 37]
{Part 3: Paragraph 3.10}
The Northern Way’s Strategic Direction for Transport identifies that to support economic growth
of the North there needs to be adequate capacity, so that journeys can be made reliably and
with reasonable journey times for links within city regions, between city regions and to access
international gateways.
Meeting the Conditional Outputs will contribute to meeting these needs by:
●● Within Manchester City Region
●● Providing capacity for commuting (Output 1)
●● Which is reliable and punctual (Output 3)
●● And has attractive journey times and frequencies (Output 4)
●● Serving range of destinations in the City Region (Output 5)
●● Offering connectivity to interchange to other rail services (Output 6)
●● Between City Regions
●● Providing capacity for longer distance trips (Output 1)
●● Which is reliable and punctual (Output 3)
●● And has attractive journey times and frequencies (Output 4)
●● Enhances city regions to city regions connectivity (Output 6) particularly on the key trans
Pennine corridor (Output 8) and north south links (Output 9)
●● To international gateways
●● Enhances rail access across the North to Manchester Airport (Output 7)
●● Supports growth in inter-modal rail freight (Output 10)
Underpinning the Northern Way’s Strategic Direction for Transport is the need for the North to
contribute to the national effort to tackle climate change through the development of a low carbon
transport system (Output 2)
14 As per DfT Rail White Paper Delivering a
Sustainable Railway Cm 7176, July 200712 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
13 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
Part 2: The Evidence Base for the
Economic Case for Enhancing
Manchester Hub Capacity and
Capability
Introduction “The Government’s central economic
objective is to raise the rate of
2.1 There is extensive evidence on how sustainable growth and achieve rising
the economic performance of the North prosperity and a better quality of
is affected by transport links in general life, with economic and employment
and rail links in particular. There is also opportunities for all. Unfulfilled
evidence on the specific economic case economic potential must be released to
for investment in the Manchester Hub. increase the long-term growth rate of
This evidence is the subject of Part 2. the UK. The Government’s vision is that
every region in England should perform
2.2 It should be recognised that
to its full potential and become more
the relationship between transport
competitive in an increasingly global
investment and economic growth has
economy.” (HMT, 2007:3)
been the subject of much research
over many years and that while our 2.5 The importance of the contribution
understanding of this inter-relationship of the Britain’s city regions to regional
may be improving, there is always and national economic prosperity
scope to argue both the generalities has become widely recognised. They
and the specifics of particular pieces of are the drivers of economic growth,
evidence. which means that the economic
growth of our cities, regional economic
2.3 Of course, promoting the
growth and economic growth of the
economy is not the only objective of
country as a whole are inextricably
the Government’s transport agenda
linked. Consequently in recent years
which also includes environmental
supporting the sustainable economic
considerations (including carbon)
growth of cities has become a
and quality of life issues. Equally,
centrepiece of urban and transport
the Manchester Hub is not the only
policy (ODPM (2000), Northern Way
transport intervention that will facilitate
(2004), Eddington (2006), Parkinson
economic growth in the North, although
(2006a), Parkinson (2006b), Department
stakeholders across the North have
for Transport (DfT) (2007)). However, it
agreed it to be the most important
is also well established that the North’s
challenge facing the rail network of the
city regions while making a substantial
North.
contribution to the national economy,
Regions, City Regions and the on a per capita basis under perform
Economy the national average and city region
economies in the South East. The
2.4 As part of the 2007 Comprehensive North’s city regions are not meeting
Spending Review, the Government set their full potential (Parkinson (2006a)).
out its vision for the performance of the
English regions: City region economies drive
regional and national growth.
The North’s city regions perform
below the national average
and are not meeting their full
potential. The Government
has set out its vision that each
region should perform to its full
economic potential.14 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
Connectivity and the Economy ●● “to support national economic
competitiveness and growth, by
2.6 Eddington (2006) argued that the delivering reliable and efficient
UK is already well connected and that transport networks;
the key economic challenge is to improve ●● to reduce transport’s emissions of
the performance of the existing network. carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
He argued that to meet its economic gases, with the desired outcome of
goals of supporting sustainable growth tackling climate change;
Government should prioritise “action
●● to contribute to better safety, security
on those parts of the system where
and health and longer life expectancy
networks are critical in supporting
by reducing the risk of death, injury
economic growth and that there are
or illness arising from transport, and
clear signals that these networks are
by promoting travel modes that are
not performing” (Eddington (2006:6)). To
beneficial to health;
Eddington, this means concentrating on
●● to promote greater equality of
the capacity and performance of existing
opportunity for all citizens, with the
links. However, while arguing that the
desired outcome of achieving a fairer
nation is broadly well connected, he
society; and
recognised that there could be a case for
“the addition of new links to support the ●● to improve quality of life for transport
growth and performance of the labour users and non-transport users,
market in growing and congested urban and to promote a healthy natural
areas” (Eddington (2006:13)). This led environment.” DfT (2008a:7)
to a policy prescription from Eddington
consistent with the position that the
2.8 The Department also helpfully
Northern Way reached in its earlier 2004
restates Eddington’s conclusion
Growth Strategy, namely that:
that the connectivity of the nation’s
“[t]he strategic economic priorities for transport network is good is a “broad
transport policy should be: congested generalistion” but “it is not equally
and growing urban areas and their true for all cities” (DfT (2008a:21)). It is
catchments; together with key inter- recognised that there may be a need to
urban corridors and key international develop new links as well as enhance
gateways that are showing signs of the capacity and performance of
increasing congestion and unreliability.” existing ones.
Eddington (2006:32)
To support economic growth
2.7 This policy prescription has since
there needs to be adequate
been endorsed by the Department for
capacity, so that journeys can
Transport in its Towards a Sustainable
be made reliably and with
Transport System (DfT, 2007), its
reasonable journey times:
response to the Eddington and Stern
reports and more recently in Delivering ●● within city regions;
a Sustainable Transport System (DfT, ●● between city regions; and
2008a), in which the Department sets
●● to access international
out its processes towards developing an
gateways.
expenditure plan for the period 2014 to
Not all city regions are equally
2019 within the context of a longer term
well connected. Facilitating
sustainable transport strategy. Covering
economic growth may require
both the economy and the Government’s
provision of new links to provide
wider agenda, the Department has set its
new capacity and capability.
goals for the transport system to be:15 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
Connectivity and the North’s 2.11 While pre-dating Eddington,
City Regions with regard to connectivity the Growth
Strategy identified a policy prescription
2.9 The Northern Way (2004) in its almost identical to that later piece of
Growth Strategy identifies a number work, namely:
of reasons why there is a differential
economic performance between the ●● enhancing links within the North’s
North and the South, and between city regions, particularly by public
the city regions of the North. Each transport
is strongly influenced by the historic ●● enhancing links between the North’s
legacy of the Northern economy city regions, notably the Leeds
which was largely dependent on Manchester corridor
manufacturing and extractive industries, ●● enhancing links to port and airport
but has since the 1970s experienced international gateways, both in the
a significant shift away from these North and elsewhere in the UK
traditional industries to a more
service-based economy (although Enhancing connectivity within
manufacturing remains an important the North’s city regions,
industry in the North). The goal of between the North’s city regions
the Northern Way is to help address and to international gateways is
the underperformance of the North’s an integral part of the Northern
economy as a whole by promoting the Way’s Growth Strategy to
accelerated growth of the North’s eight accelerate the North’s economic
city regions15. To this end, the Northern growth. There is good evidence
Way Growth Strategy identifies the to support this contention.
importance of enhancing the North’s
skill base, supporting the development
of a more entrepreneurial culture, Connectivity between the
supporting greater innovation by firms in North’s City Regions
the North, promoting more sustainable
communities, raising the international 2.12 Ensuring appropriate and
profile of the North and enhancing the adequate connectivity within and
North’s connectivity. between city regions, and to and from
international gateways is an integral
2.10 The Northern Way Growth part of the policy prescription from
Strategy echoes the findings of others Eddington and in their response to
that while good connectivity alone is Eddington, the approach adopted by
not a sufficient condition to support the Department for Transport. Looking
economic growth it is a necessary at the North overall, the Northern Way
one. Similar conclusions were made has identified that existing connectivity
by Parkinson et al (2006a, 2006b) between the North’s city regions is seen
and Institute of Political and Economic as an impediment to maximising the
Governance (IPEG) et al (2008), who rate of economic growth in the North.
in particular found that, “whilst it is not
an absolute truth to claim that places
become economically successful
because they are well connected,
[we] found powerful evidence of
correspondence between the two”
(IPEG (2008:18)).
15 These are: Liverpool, Manchester, Central
Lancashire, Sheffield, Leeds, Hull and the
Humber, Tees Valley and Tyne and Wear.16 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
2.13 Moving beyond the general four key activity clusters that stood
prescription of Eddington that links out in terms of their importance in
between and within city regions are contributing to the North West’s
important to economic growth, how the economy and their recent economic
city regions in the North interact and the dynamism. These are Manchester
importance of linkages between them (particularly south Manchester and
has been explored in some depth first north Cheshire), Liverpool, Chester/
by Sustainable Urban and Regional North Wales and Preston. They also
Futures (SURF) et al (2006) in a study identified as important the economic
for NWDA that focussed on the North linkages between the North West
West, and subsequently as part of a and West Yorkshire in general, and
North-wide analysis by IPEG et al (2008) Manchester and Leeds in particular,
for the Northern Way. both in terms of overlapping journey
to work catchments and the potential
2.14 The study by SURF et al for for greater business to business
NWDA used five research strands to interaction. Their work highlighted the
inform the derivation of their overall importance to businesses in these five
findings. These were surveys of Small nodes of access to international air
and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which services at Manchester Airport.
were conducted with the collaboration
of key Chambers of Commerce; 2.15 SURF et al concluded:
work with secondary data sources
to look at the organisation of larger “the economic importance of our five
firms; work looking at the interaction nodes will continue to grow in future
between key higher education years. All the evidence is that ‘path
institutions and businesses; interviews dependency’ is a powerful logic that
with key corporations; and, analysis is likely to see recent trends being
of econometric data. From these five maintained and deepened. As a result,
workstreams SURF et al identified economic and spatial strategies for the17 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
North West that aim to realize economic regions, the smaller outlying growth
potential need to: (a) give substantial centres around York, Chester and
attention to the four [North West] nodes Preston and the Tyne and Wear city
and the connections between them; region in the North East” IPEG et al
and (b) continue to bear in mind the (2008:35)
opportunities that might arise from
developments across the Pennines” and
SURF et al (2006: unpaginated) “This invites…a strategic approach to
2.16 Their work also led them to inter-city connectivity focused upon
conclude: prioritising interaction between relative
‘equals’ (for instance Manchester and
●● “The crucial importance, for … Leeds) or between centres which
[the North West], of expanding the vary in their economic specialisms (for
international linkages provided by instance Liverpool and Manchester)
Manchester Airport and further which would also improve the labour
improving its accessibility along market between them. There would
with that of the quickly-expanding appear to be particular value in
John Lennon airport whose growth developing this approach to promoting
has underpinned recent economic cross-Pennine links – including better
improvement in the Liverpool city- access to Manchester Airport from
region Leeds – given that the Pennines
●● The importance of improvements continue to act as a barrier to realising
in connectivity within city-regions the joint agglomeration potential of the
in enabling stronger labour market North’s largest and most dynamic city
linkages between areas of need and regions” IPEG et al (2008:37)
growth, and
2.19 As part of a Research
●● The economic value of good quality,
Programme, the Northern Way is
fast and reliable transport links
sponsoring work by the LSE’s Spatial
to London.” SURF et al (2006:
Economics Research Centre (SERC)
unpaginated)
which will extend further the evidence
base on the future development of
2.17 The work by IPEG et al (2008) economic links between Leeds and
extends the analysis undertaken by Manchester. This work is scheduled to
SURF et al to the whole of the North. conclude in autumn 2009 and will then
Again using a mixture of targeted be published on the Northern Way’s
surveys, analyses of econometric web site.
data and analyses of secondary data
sources, the work explored three
themes: the roles and economic Enhancing links between the
functions of the North’s city regions, North’s city regions will support
connectivity within and between city and facilitate future economic
regions and how the North’s city regions growth. Enhancing the trans-
stand within a national hierarchy. Pennine corridor will support
growth of the North’s two
2.18 IPEG et al concluded: largest city region economies
and will also benefit the wider
“the prosperity of the North as a North.
whole will be increasingly driven by
the economic performance of the
Manchester and Leeds city regions and
the putative growth belt that connects
them to the Sheffield and Liverpool city18 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
Connectivity within the North’s a time when rail has had a degree of
City Regions excess capacity and has been able
to accommodate growth. Now on-
2.20 As has already been highlighted, train crowding is becoming significant
city regions are seen as the engines (Network Rail, 2007 and 2008) so the
of economic growth. The importance absence of capacity to accommodate
of connectivity within city regions further growth in peak period rail trip
to support economic growth has making, as well as the constraints on
been identified by the Northern Way the rail network’s scope and reach
Growth Strategy (Northern Way, have been identified as a threat to
2004), the Northern Way’s Strategic the city’s future economic growth
Direction for Transport (2006) and by (Association of Greater Manchester
Eddington (2006). Through their City Authorities (AGMA), (2007)).
Region Development Programmes
and other strategic documents, city
regions across the North have each Manchester’s rail network has
identified the importance of enhancing facilitated the city’s sustainable
connectivity within city regions to economic growth by supporting
support future economic growth. the growth in city centre
employment. However, on-train
2.21 What is seen across the North crowding and the current scope
is that in peak hours road networks and reach of the network limits
are operating at or close to their the scope for future growth.
operational capacity (Steer Davies
Gleave, 2008b). Congestion leads to
extended journey times and unreliable 2.23 By comparing the economic
journeys. This has an economic cost. interactions between Reading and
Significantly, there is little capacity for London, and Burnley and Manchester,
peak hour trip growth by road, with Centre for Cities (2008) focussed on
growth in trip making accommodated the links between large city region
by either peak spreading (which economies and smaller towns and
in turn results in congestion being cities that fall within their economic
experienced in other time periods) or influence. They found that towns
by increasing public transport use. such as Burnley are not integrated
within the Manchester labour market
2.22 This is the experience of
despite being close in terms of
Leeds and Manchester, the two
distance. This was in marked contrast
most significant city economies in
to the situation observed between
the North. In recent years both city
Reading and London where Centre
centres have experienced employment
for Cities identified a strong economic
growth while neither city centre has
interaction. They went on to identify
experienced commensurate growth in
the strong transport links between
peak hour car commuting. However,
Reading and London and the poor
both city centres have experienced
transport links between Burnley
a significant growth in peak hour
and Manchester as explanatory
rail (and in the case of Manchester,
factors. They conclude “the issues of
Metrolink) demand (see GMTU (2008),
connectivity between core cities and
Metro (2008)). This has led to the
their neighbouring areas play a key role
conclusion that it is public transport
in explaining differences in economic
which has accommodated recent
performance in regional economic
growth in city centre employment in
performance between the North and
these two key locations in the North.
Greater South East” (Centre for Cities
However, this growth has occurred at
(2008:18)).leading to a prescription that19 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
enhanced links between core cities in International Links
the North (such as Manchester) and
smaller near-by towns would increase 2.26 Thus far we have summarised the
the spill-over effects from the larger evidence on the importance to future
economy and boost economic growth. economic growth of links within and
between city regions and links within
2.24 As IPEG at al (2008) describe city regions. Also of importance is
the effect of poor connectivity leading international connectivity. York Aviation
to limited economic interaction is not (2006) in their study of the economic
limited to towns close to the larger city importance of the Manchester Airport
economies. It can also occur within city Group companies has identified the
regions. Looking at the Manchester following economic impacts of air
City Region IPEG at al show that while transport:
GVA in the Greater Manchester South
NUTS3 area has grown more than any ●● Direct impacts: employment, income
other location in the North, growth in or outputs that are wholly or largely
Greater Manchester North has been related to the operation of an airport
lowest. In part this is attributed to the and are generated either on-site or in
relatively poor north-south links within the surrounding area
the Manchester City Region resulting ●● Indirect impacts: employment,
in the north of the conurbation not income or outputs that are in the
enjoying spillover effects from growth in chain of suppliers of goods and
the south. services to the direct activities
●● Induced impacts: employment,
2.25 Supported by the Northern Way’s income or outputs that are due to
Research Programme, work is in hand household spending resulting from
to look further at the spillover effects direct and indirect employment
from stronger to weaker economies
●● Catalytic impacts: employment,
identified by Centre for Cities. The
income or outputs that are generated
findings of this work will be published
by new businesses locating to the
on the Northern Way’s web site in due
region, inward investments and
course.
inbound tourism; and
●● Productivity/competitive advantage
Linking areas of economic need impacts: employment, income or
such as North Manchester outputs gains amongst existing
or the Pennine Lancashire businesses in the economy due
towns with locations with to increased export volumes and
stronger economic growth productivity improvements.
like Manchester City Centre,
South Manchester and around
Manchester Airport supports
the stronger areas by extending
labour markets, while at the
same time facilitating spill over
effects into the weaker areas.20 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
2.27 As York Aviation highlight, while 2.29 Manchester Airport (2007) has
challenging to quantify, the consensus identified that surface access capacity
is that the catalytic impacts and the is the most significant constraint on
productivity and competitive advantage its future growth and therefore the
impacts of air transport greatly outweigh economic benefits that it can help
the direct, indirect and induced impacts. deliver to the Northern economy. It has
These significant impacts come about identified increasing public transport
because provision of international air mode share as the most effective and
services: efficient way of overcoming these
constraints.
●● is an important element in company
location decisions. The presence 2.30 Unpublished market research
of an international airport can be a undertaken in 2005 for Trans Pennine
important factor in: Express (ORC International, 2005)
●● attracting new investment from has demonstrated that while the
outside the area, and especially period from 05:00 to 10:00 has the
companies from overseas; greatest volume of travellers arriving at
●● retaining existing companies Manchester Airport to check-in for their
in the area, whether they had departing flights, it also has lower rail
previously been inward investors mode share than the period from 10:00
or indigenous operations; to 16:00. Air passengers have a high
●● securing the expansion of awareness of rail as an access option,
existing companies in the face of but do not use it as rail does not allow
competition with other areas; them to arrive at the airport in time for
their flight. The same research also
●● promotes the export success of
shows that for those air passengers
companies located in the area by the
who consider using rail the three
provision of passenger and freight
most significant deterrents were the
links to key markets;
frequency of service, journey reliability
●● enhances the competitiveness of and lack of a direct service.
the economy, and the companies
in it, through its fast and efficient 2.31 The importance of direct services
passenger and freight services; has been quantified by Lythgoe and
●● attracts inbound tourism, including Wardman (2002), who demonstrated
both business and leisure visitors, to that air passengers using rail to access
the area. an airport have a greater value of
time than other rail passengers and
2.28 Manchester Airport is the most also that they place a greater penalty
significant airport in the North, catering on interchange than other types of
for more passengers than all the other rail passenger. Interestingly, Lythgoe
northern airports combined. It is the and Wardman also showed that the
only airport in the North with a network elasticity to GDP of air travellers is
of inter-continental scheduled services greater than for other rail passengers
and the only airport in the North that (this means that the number of air
caters for a substantial volume of air passengers using rail grows at a faster
freight. It is the largest airport in the rate for each unit of GDP growth than
UK outside the South East and the other rail passengers). The finding
only airport in the North identified in on interchange has been reinforced
Delivering a Sustainable Transport by work by consultants LEK (2003)
System as a key international airport in a study commissioned jointly by
gateway (DfT, 2008a). Manchester Airport Group, the DfT,
the Strategic Rail Authority and
Network Rail to develop rail options for21 Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
Manchester Airport, in turn to inform
the 2004 Airports White Paper. This Manchester Airport delivers
work concluded that the city centre substantial economic benefits to
catchment area is much less important the North which will grow as the
to Manchester Airport, than the centre Airport grows. Surface access
of London is to the London airports. capacity is the most significant
Using 2001 data it showed that rail’s constraint to the Airport’s
market share is highest in the areas future growth. Increasing public
served by North Trans Pennine services transport mode share is the
(13.9%) and the Lancaster/Windermere/ preferred way to overcome
Barrow services (15.4%), compared these constraints.
with the then average rail share of 5.3%.
This work reported statistical analysis 2.34 The three estuarial port
which showed that whether or not complexes in the North around the
locations were linked by direct services Humber, the Tees and the Mersey serve
to Manchester Airport was a significant national roles. Measured by tonnes
explanatory variable for rail mode share, lifted in 2006 Grimsby and Immingham
with those locations with direct services on the Humber is the largest port in the
having a higher mode share. country, Tees and Hartlepool is ranked
second and the Port of Liverpool sixth.
2.32 More recently, DfT (2008b:19)
These northern ports are national
repeated the position reached by the
assets. The Mersey ports are the
Northern Way that, “congestion during
principal national gateway port for short
the peak periods on the rail services
sea shipping to Ireland and deep sea
leads to delays and services being
shipping to North America. The Tees
terminated at Manchester Piccadilly,
and Humber ports are best located
with negative impacts on passenger
to serve the Scandinavian, Baltic
experience. Passenger perception
and North European markets. The
that rail is not reliable (because of the
hinterland of the North’s ports extends
Manchester Hub congestion) also
well beyond the three northern regions
suppresses demand for rail travel as
into the Midlands and Scotland, and
passengers place a high value on
into the South East for some traffic.
reliability and journey time for airport
journeys.” The importance of direct 2.35 These ports play a significant
rail services to airports has also been role to the economy of each of the
demonstrated in DfT-commissioned regions within which they sit. This is
qualitative research on air passengers’ through their direct contributions to
journey experiences by Sykes and employment, and through associated
Desai (2009:17) which reported, “where benefits that are opened up by the
available, trains were regarded as linkages created and that attract
a good alternative to road travel by investment and business to the area.
some respondents, especially where As MDS Transmodal (2006) identify, in a
the train route was straightforward similar way to airports there are direct,
and services frequent and reliable. indirect and induced economic impacts
However, participants also worried of ports, as well as catalytic impacts.
about unscheduled cancellations of Given that the vast majority of imported
train services, delays and missed and exported goods arrive and depart
connections over which they had little by sea, these wider impacts are clearly
control.” substantial and are likely to be far
greater in magnitude than the direct
2.33 The evidence that direct and
impacts which can be quantified.
reliable rail services to the airport
maximise rail mode share is very strong.You can also read
