The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
The Northern Way:
Manchester Hub Conditional
Output Statement
April 2009
The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
ii   Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement


Executive Summary						                                             1

Part 1: The Conditional Outputs					                                7

Part 2: The Evidence Base for the Economic Case for Enhancing
Manchester Hub Capacity and Capability				                          13

Part 3: Disaggregated Rates of Benefit				                          33

Part 4: Stakeholder Aspirations					                                45

Part 5: Overview Of Approach To Modelling			                        49

Glossary							                                                     73

Text and design by Steer Davies Gleave
The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
01                                            Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

Executive Summary

Context                                     on the development of alternative rail
                                            options to meet the Conditional Output
The Manchester Hub is the network           Statement and then their assessment
of rail corridors that link and cross in    from an operational, financial and
and around central Manchester. The          economic perspective. The Phase 2
Northern Way has identified the Hub as      study will involve more detailed demand
the most fundamental rail bottleneck        modelling work than Phase 1 (although
in the North of England. It limits the      using the same overall structure), as
capacity, performance and connectivity      well as engineering assessment.
of commuter and longer distance
passenger services that either terminate    The Conditional Output
in Manchester or pass through the Hub.      Statement
It therefore adversely affects journeys
between the North’s city regions too.       The Conditional Output Statement
It also limits the number of trains, from   for the Manchester Hub sets out
across the North and beyond, that can       the question that Network Rail, in
serve Manchester Airport, the North’s       collaboration with industry colleagues,
principal airport, as well as that can      will attempt to answer. It seeks to
access important distribution centres for   define the problem in a clear way. The
freight.                                    Conditional Output Statement is made
                                            up of five parts.
On 4th October 2007, the then
Department for Transport Minister of        Part 1 of the Conditional Output
State, Rosie Winterton, responding          Statement is a summary of the
to the work of the Northern Way,            conditional outputs, numerically cross-
announced that a study would be             referenced to the evidence base and
undertaken to develop proposals             results of the Phase 1 modelling which
to enhance the capacity and                 are presented in subsequent sections
functionality of the Manchester Hub.        of this document. It is important to
The Manchester Hub Study is being           stress that the conditional outputs
undertaken in two phases overseen           have been derived from a combination
by a Department for Transport-chaired       of the evidence base set out in Part 2
Sponsors’ Group, the other members          and the outputs of the modelling work.
being the Northern Way, Greater             The conditional outputs also reflect the
Manchester Integrated Transport             Northern Way’s established position
Authority and Passenger Transport           that the North’s economic growth
Executive, and Network Rail.                needs to be environmentally sustainable
                                            and in particular the importance of the
The Sponsors’ Group asked that              North contributing to the national effort
the Northern Way lead the Phase             to tackle climate change.
1 study. The Phase 2 work is being
led by Network Rail. Producing the          In Part 2 of this Conditional Output
Manchester Hub Conditional Output           Statement, the emphasis is entirely on
Statement has been the primary              the evidence base, and specifically, the
purpose of the Phase 1 study and it is      economic evidence base. Stakeholder
set out in this report.                     views and requirements (other than
                                            some specific needs of Department for
The Outputs are described as                Transport) are not included in Part 2, but
conditional because their realisation       are summarised separately in Part 4.
depends on it being found possible
to devise solutions which are both
affordable and represent value for
money. The Phase 2 work is focussing
The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
2                                              Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

Map 1    Manchester Hub Corridors

Part 3 provides further information          Part 5 is a summary of the modelling
that has informed the development of         methodology that has been applied.
the conditional outputs. It comprises a      More detailed technical reports on the
summary of the modelling tests carried       Phase 1 economic forecasting that has
out by the Northern Way to examine           been undertaken by Experian and Steer
a package of candidate rail service          Davies Gleave’s modelling and appraisal
improvements across the Manchester           work have been published separately
Hub and on the rail corridors leading to     by the Northern Way and are available
it. These results have been expressed        on our website.
in a user-friendly format by setting out
the value of economic benefits. in each      Rail Corridors
corridor, and expressing the results on a    To support the development the
£ benefit/unit change basis. The specific    Conditional Output Statement, the
assumptions that lie behind these            Northern Way has defined 14 rail
test results are important in that they      corridors, each of which converge on
reflect a plausible set of incremental       the Manchester Hub. These corridors
improvements which were developed            have been used to disaggregate
from consideration of stakeholder            the forecasts of future demand and
requirements. By expressing the              potential benefits set out in Parts 3
economic value to be gained on the           and 5. They have also been used in
£ benefit/unit change basis, the Part        the specification of a number of the
3 analysis has a relevance that can          Conditional Outputs, which are set out
be applied across a wide range of            in Part 1. The corridors are listed in
scenarios that Network Rail may wish to      Table 1 and shown geographically on
consider in Phase 2.                         Map 1.
As already noted, Part 4 gives an
overview of the Northern Way’s
consultation with high level stakeholders
from across the North. This, along
with the conclusions of a stakeholder
workshop held in July 2008, led to the
definition of four objectives for the Hub
Study. Part 4 shows how meeting the
conditional outputs set out in Part 1 will
contribute to meeting the stakeholder
The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
03                                               Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

Table 1   Manchester Hub Corridors             In themselves, the modelling tests
                                               undertaken by the Northern Way reveal
     1    Southport via Wigan                  some key pointers on the scale of the
     2    Preston and the North via Bolton     economic benefit from the Manchester
     3    Blackburn                            Hub. Two demand growth scenarios
                                               have been considered. In the Trend
     4    Bradford via Rochdale
                                               scenario we have assumed that the
     5    Yorkshire and the Humber & the       North’s economy grows in line with the
          North East via Leeds                 Department for Transport’s standard
     6    Glossop / Hadfield                   appraisal assumptions. In the Trend
     7    Marple / Romiley                     Plus scenario we have assumed that
                                               the North’s regions and city regions
     8    Yorkshire and the Humber & the
                                               successfully deliver their economic
          East Midlands via Sheffield
                                               development plans, which results in
     9    Buxton                               the North’s economy growing at a
     10   London, Birmingham and the           faster rate. A Test Timetable has been
          South (via WCML)                     used to assess the potential level of
     11   Manchester Airport                   benefit from Hub enhancement. This
                                               Test Timetable is a plausible set of
     12   Chester via Northwich
                                               incremental enhancements to journey
     13   Liverpool via Irlam (CLC)            times and service frequencies together
     14   Liverpool / Chester via Warrington   with potential inter-connections
          (Chat Moss)                          between passenger services on each
                                               of the rail corridors that converge in the
                                               Manchester Hub.
Key Findings                                   The most significant finding from this
                                               new work is simply this: in a scenario
There is an extensive evidence base
                                               with Trend growth a package of
about how the economic performance
                                               plausible incremental service
of the North is affected by transport
                                               enhancements to commuter and
links in general and rail links in
                                               longer distance passengers services
particular. Evidence shows that to
                                               offering greater connectivity to and
support economic growth there needs
                                               across central Manchester brings
to be adequate capacity, and that
                                               overall economic benefits of £12.7bn
journeys can be made reliably and with
                                               (PV over the life of the project). In the
reasonable journey times:
                                               Trend Plus scenario these benefits
●● within city regions;                        increase to £16.2bn PV.
●● between city regions; and                   This indicates that Manchester Hub is a
●● to access international gateways.           challenge worth devoting considerable
                                               resources to tackling, whether or not
It shows that within city regions there
                                               the Trend or Trend Plus projections are
remains scope to connect areas of
                                               used as a basis for the Phase 2 work.
economic need with areas of economic
growth. Not all city regions are equally       It is also clear that the distribution of
well connected. Facilitating economic          benefits is widely spread: Manchester
growth may require provision of new            Hub is not about one or two key
links to provide new capacity and              flows. Instead, we observe that
capability. It shows the key role that         growth prospects are highest on south
rail has to play in delivering economic        Manchester local commuter markets,
growth.                                        whilst the greatest rates of benefits
                                               are on the main corridors linking the
The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
04                                                   Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

adjacent city regions to Manchester.              Whether or not appropriate measures
There are also very significant                   and schemes can be developed to
benefits related to West Coast Main               secure this range and type of benefit will
Line services to London and in the                depend on what emerges from Network
railfreight sector. Manchester Hub is             Rail’s work ahead. Until then, the
about solving a problem that affects              Outputs are described as conditional
the development of national, regional             because their realisation depends on it
and local rail services, about freight            being found possible to devise solutions
and passenger services. The scale of              which are both affordable and represent
benefits on offer suggests that it will           value for money.
be right to consider radical as well as
incremental solutions.

Some of the key results are
summarised in the panel below.

 Summary of key results

 ●● Within the North, commuter and inter-urban services on the five corridors to Yorkshire
    and the Humber and North East via Leeds, Preston and the North via Bolton, Yorkshire
    and the Humber and East Midlands via Sheffield and the two to Liverpool dominate rail
    demand on services that use the Manchester Hub. The West Coast Main Line Corridor
    to the south is the largest of all.
 ●● In the Trend and Trend Plus scenarios these corridors provide the largest quantity of
    forecast growth.
 ●● In the Trend and Trend Plus scenarios the fastest rate of growth is projected to occur
    on corridors where commuting to Manchester is the dominant flow. The corridors to
    Marple/Romiley, Buxton and Manchester Airport corridors have the highest rates of
    growth in the Trend scenario. In the Trend Plus scenario, the corridors to Bradford via
    Rochdale, Marple/Romiley and Buxton have the highest growth rates.
 ●● In the Trend and Trend Plus scenarios the greatest level of incremental benefit per unit
    of generalised journey time improvement is in the following corridors:
     ●● London, Birmingham and the South (via WCML)
     ●● Yorkshire and the Humber & North East via Leeds
     ●● Preston and the North via Bolton
     ●● Yorkshire and the Humber & East Midlands via Sheffield
     ●● Manchester Airport
 ●● In the Trend scenario the greatest level of incremental benefit per unit increase of
    capacity is in the following corridors:
     ●● Yorkshire and the Humber & East Midlands via Sheffield
     ●● London, Birmingham and the South (via WCML)
     ●● Preston and the North via Bolton
     ●● Yorkshire and the Humber & North East via Leeds
     ●● Liverpool via Irlam
     ●● In the Trend Plus scenario the Leeds and Preston corridors are reversed in this
The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
05                                           Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

What is clear, however, is that the        the future. The discussions at the
preferred way forward needs to support     stakeholder meeting helped inform the
the growth of rail commuting and           package of service improvements that
business travel into central Manchester,   was tested by the modelling work and
the most significant location of           helped inform the specification of the
employment in the North’s largest city     conditional outputs. Reports on the
region. It needs to support enhanced       high level consultation exercise and the
connectivity between the North’s city      July 2008 stakeholder group can be
regions and between the North and          downloaded from the Northern Way’s
the rest of the country. It needs to       website (
support the growth of Manchester
Airport by increasing rail’s mode share    Prior to the finalisation of the conditional
as the airport grows. Finally, it needs    outputs set out in Part 1 of this
to support the growth in inter-modal       report, a second stakeholder meeting
containers, both for established markets   was held on 18th March 2009. The
and by facilitating new markets too.       then draft conditional outputs were
                                           presented to that meeting and were
Stakeholder Engagement                     broadly endorsed by the attendees.
                                           The conditional outputs have also been
As we have already noted, high level       endorsed by the Northern Way Steering
consultation with stakeholders from        Group and the Northern Transport
across the North led to the definition     Compact.
of four objectives for the Manchester
Hub study. These were discussed and
confirmed at a stakeholder meeting
held on 29th July 2008. This meeting
also furthered our understanding of
what stakeholders see as problems
and issues around the Manchester
Hub, as well as their aspirations for
The Northern Way: Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
6   Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
07                                             Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

                                              Part 1: The Conditional Outputs

Note: The number in square brackets [ ]       The Northern Way has identified 10          Plus) can be expected by 2020. Of
at the end of each Conditional Output
refers to documents cited in Part 2 and       conditional outputs that Network Rail, in   course, service enhancements arising
included in the Part 2 list of references.    collaboration with industry colleagues,     from the Hub solutions are likely to
Paragraph and table references shown
in curly brackets { } identify the relevant
                                              should seek to meet when developing         increase demand further. Differential
sourcing available from the results of        and then identifying the way forward for    growth rates are forecast on each
the modelling work summarised in Part         the Manchester Hub. These relate to:        corridor, with typically the shorter
3, and in the case of growth, Part 5.
These form the evidence-base for the                                                      distance suburban corridors having
inclusion of each Conditional Output          1. Capacity and Flexibility                 higher average growth rates and the
within the overall Conditional Output
                                                                                          longer distance corridors showing the
Statement.                                    2. Carbon Reduction
                                                                                          greatest amounts of growth.
                                              3. Performance
                                                                                          1.3 Adequate capacity needs to be
                                              4. Journey Times                            provided to accommodate Trend
                                                                                          growth to 2019/20 in longer distance,
                                              5. Growth Centres in Greater                commuting and other local rail journeys,
                                                 Manchester                               with average crowding being no greater
                                                                                          than implied by the capacity metrics
                                              6. Connectivity to Deliver Economic
                                                                                          for 2013/14 for Manchester in the
                                                                                          Department for Transport’s 2007 High
                                              7. Manchester Airport                       Level Output Statement for the rail
                                              8. Trans Pennine
                                                                                          1.4 For the Trend scenario after
                                              9. North South Links and High Speed         2019/20 and in relation to the Trend
                                                 Rail                                     Plus scenario, the identified Manchester
                                                                                          Hub proposal should be ‘future-
                                              10. Freight                                 proofed’ to accommodate these higher
                                                                                          growth rates without a requirement
                                                                                          for further major infrastructure works
                                              1. Capacity and Flexibility                 beyond the identified proposals but
                                                                                          through measures such as train
                                              1.1 Future growth in demand has             lengthening.
                                              been projected on the basis of detailed
                                              studies of population and employment        1.5 It is important to note that these
                                              trends and the application of demand        demand projections do not fully take
                                              models consistent with Department for       into account the economic recession. In
                                              Transport (DfT) standard econometric        practice, this may be taken as having a
                                              inputs and rail forecasting methods.        delay impact on projections of demand
                                              In the Trend scenario it is assumed         growth.
                                              that the North’s economy grows in line
                                                                                          [Part 2 References: 5, 6, 14, 15, 16, 20, 22, 24,
                                              with the Department for Transport’s         25, 26, 27, 28, 34]
                                              standard appraisal assumptions. In          {Part 3: Tables 1 and 2 above are from the
                                              the Trend Plus scenario it is assumed       analysis described in Part 3, also Paragraph 3.8}
                                              that the North’s three regions and eight    {Part 5: Tables 4 and 5}
                                              city regions successfully deliver their
                                              development plans, which results in the
                                              North’s economy growing at a faster

                                              1.2 The growth in demand should be
                                              taken as the central requirement in
                                              terms of capacity. In general, growth of
                                              between 39% (Trend) and 54% (Trend          1 Appendix A to Delivering a Sustainable Railway Cm
                                                                                          7176, July 2007
08                                                            Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

2. Carbon Reduction                                        4. Journey Times
1.6 The net effect of the Manchester                       1.8 In addition, the evidence is that
Hub proposals on the overall carbon                        for the economies of the northern city
trajectory for the transport sector                        regions to function effectively together,
which in due course will be adopted by                     they need to be provided with much
Government should be demonstrated.                         speedier inter-connections. There are
If possible, the effect of Manchester                      no absolute cut-offs or thresholds
Hub in terms of in-service operation                       which define acceptability for the key
should be to contribute to the trajectory                  journey times: quicker still, will always be
of reduced carbon emissions as set                         advantageous.
in national level overall targets for the
transport sector.2                                         1.9 However, based on the need to
                                                           achieve regular interval city centre to city
[Part 2 References: 8, 27, 28]                             centre times that are recognisably faster
                                                           than by car, and adopting 60 miles per
3. Performance                                             hour as a benchmark, these are target
1.7 Network performance should be                          journey times for the key corridors, from
such that delay minutes on franchised                      a Manchester City Centre station (either
services in the Manchester area will                       Victoria or Piccadilly) to the principal
not be worsened by meeting the                             adjoining city regions3:
Manchester Hub Conditional Outputs
                                                           ●● Leeds 40 minutes4 (and Bradford
and that the performance of franchised
                                                              50 minutes, recognising route
rail services in the Manchester area
is kept consistent with the High
                                                           ●● Sheffield 40 minutes
Level Output Statement and in line
with targets set nationally. In respect                    ●● Chester 40 minutes
of Airport services, as the available                      ●● Liverpool 30 minutes
evidence is that good reliability and                      ●● Preston 30 minutes.
performance is of particular significance
to encourage rail use by airline                           1.10 It is also of course the case that
passengers, the conditional requirement                    the economic and other benefits of
is to improve performance further as a                     commuting and other local trip making
priority.                                                  by rail are increased by reducing overall
                                                           journey times, a function of station to
[Part 2 References: 5, 6, 9, 14, 15, 16, 20, 22, 24,       station times, service frequency and
25, 26, 27, 28, 34, 41]                                    wider accessibility considerations.
                                                           [Part 2 References: 1, 5, 6, 14, 15, 16, 19, 22, 24,
                                                           25, 26, 27, 28, 34]
                                                           {Part 3: Tables 1-6}

                                                           3 Typical off-peak journey times from Manchester
                                                             Piccadilly are Leeds 55 minutes, Sheffield 48
2 Besides taking account of consequences for                minutes, Chester 63 minutes, Liverpool 52 minutes,
  carbon emissions from changes to the pattern and           Preston 42 minutes; and from Manchester Victoria,
  density of rail services (diesel and electric) arising     Bradford 69 minutes In the 2007 Rail White Paper,
  from the Manchester Hub, it would be appropriate           the Department for Transport committed to reduce
  to take into account carbon savings from diversion         the Leeds journey time to 43 minutes and the
  of demand away from more carbon-intensive travel           Liverpool journey time to 40 minutes
  modes. It is not considered appropriate at this          4 Assuming dwell times at Leeds and York are
  stage to set a carbon target related to construction       also minimised, this would give journey times to
  phases (although this may follow subsequently as a         Newcastle, Middlesbrough and Hull of 133, 124
  matter of good practice).                                  and 101 minutes respectively.
09                                                           Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

5. Growth Centres in Greater                              ‘in scope’ for the Phase 2 work.
Manchester                                                Similarly, while the development and
                                                          promotion of bus links is also a matter
1.11 To support the growth and                            for the Greater Manchester authorities,
regeneration of the Manchester/Salford                    the Phase 2 work will need to be
Regional Centre, from each principal rail                 mindful of such opportunities.
corridor5 to each sub-area6 within the
Regional Centre there should be either:                    [Part 2 References: 5, 14, 20]
                                                          {Part 3: Tables 1, 2, 4, 5}
●● a direct rail service; or
●● a service that requires no more than
                                                          6. Connectivity to Deliver
   a single interchange for onward travel
                                                          Economic Benefits8
   by rail, Metrolink or Metroshuttle.                    1.15 All principal corridors9 to be
                                                          connected if possible to the same
1.12 To support growth elsewhere in
                                                          station in Manchester City Centre for
Greater Manchester, from each principal
                                                          easy passenger transfer (or through
rail corridor to each of the key town
                                                          cross-Manchester operation), as well as
centres7, there should be either:
                                                          other central area stations appropriate
●● a direct rail service; or                              to the travel market.
●● a service that requires no more
                                                          1.16 The economic analysis
   than a single interchange, by rail or
                                                          undertaken for this project shows that
                                                          cross-city movements deliver significant
1.13 To support growth outside the                        incremental unit benefits which in some
Regional Centre, from each principal rail                 cases are greater than those from point
corridor to Salford Quays there should                    to point improvements on existing
be a service that requires no more                        services. The improved connectivity
than a single interchange by bus or                       should therefore be used:
                                                            (a) where possible, to promote direct
1.14 Recognising that the development                       cross-city movements (for which
and then promotion of Metrolink options                     train service provision and hence
is a matter for the Greater Manchester                      franchising costs will also generally
authorities rather than Network Rail,                       experience cost efficiencies), or
the future role of Metrolink tram-train
                                                            (b) where this cannot be done, to
conversions should be taken as being
                                                            facilitate convenient passenger

5 Corridor 2 (serving Preston), Corridor 4 (serving      8 The evidence from the economic analysis is
  Bradford/Halifax); Corridor 5 (serving Newcastle/         that the greatest rates of benefit can stem from
  Tees Valley/Hull/Leeds); Corridor 8 (serving              improvement in cross-city connectivity. These
  Sheffield, South Humber Bank and the East                 journeys have a more strongly competitive road-
  Midlands); Corridor 10 (serving London/                   based alternative given the more dispersed trip
  Birmingham); Corridor 13 (serving Liverpool),             pattern and the existence of the complete orbital
  Corridor 14 (serving Chester/North Wales and              motorway at Manchester. Northern Way’s analysis
  Liverpool); together with Corridor 11 serving             [33] shows that road congestion across the North
  Manchester Airport                                        is going to worsen, even with smarter choices,
6 The Regional Centre comprises the following sub-         the application of the Highway Agency’s Managed
  area: Central Business District, Retail Core, Eastern     Motorways approach and Intelligent Transport
  Gateway, Piccadilly Gateway, Oxford Road Corridor,        Systems and therefore there is a need to provide
  Spinningfields, Chapel Street, Victoria, Northern         a non-congested alternative suitable for high
  Quarter, Southern Gateway, The Village, Petersfield,      value business use. In addition, there is a need to
  Castlefield, Left Bank and Chinatown. Plans for           encourage spillover effects from the key growth
  the physical and transport development of these           centres in the city regions to secondary centres
  quarters are set out within the 2008 draft Regional       where the economy is most sluggish [1,10]. This
  Centre Transport Strategy.                                means an improvement to links such as those
                                                            between places north of Manchester to the
7 These are defined in the Local Transport Plan and
                                                            prosperous band of greater job opportunity on the
  are Ashton-under-Lyne, Oldham, Rochdale, Bury,
                                                            south side of Manchester, for example.
  Bolton, Wigan, Altrincham and Stockport
                                                          9 As defined in footnote 5
10                                                         Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

  interchange. This is best done at a                   8. Trans Pennine
  single Manchester City Centre station
  to avoid circuitous, time consuming/                  Overall
  counter-intuitive routeing.
                                                        1.19 The three Trans Pennine corridors
                                                        form the spine for City Region to City
                                                        Region links across the North to and
[Part 2 References: 2, 3, 5, 6, 14, 15, 16, 20, 22,     from Liverpool and Central Lancashire
26, 27, 28, 31, 32, 34, 35, 36]
                                                        in the west through to Tyne and
{Part 3: Tables 2, 5}10
                                                        Wear, Tees Valley and Hull and the
7. Manchester Airport                                   Humber in the east. To support a high
                                                        frequency, high quality, regular interval
1.17 To allow the expansion of the                      core express service that links all of
Airport to its airside capacity so that it              the Northern City Regions in a way
can fulfil its wider potential to support               designed to maximise the number
the growth of the Northern economy, it                  of direct city region to city region
will be necessary to maximise rail mode                 linkages, and meeting the enhanced
share on existing corridors and expand                  journey times and performance targets
the set of major rail destinations directly             (Conditional Outputs 3 and 4).
accessible from the Airport to increase
overall rail mode share of surface                      Leeds – Manchester
access trips. As well as destinations                   With a 15 minute interval service (or
across the North, account needs to be                   better)
taken of the potential to improve links
                                                        Sheffield – Manchester
from the Airport to North Wales and the
                                                        With a 20 minute service interval
West and North Midlands.
                                                        Bradford/Halifax – Manchester
1.18 The requirement is for direct11
                                                        With a 30 minute service interval
services of at least hourly interval
service frequency in each of the                        [Part 2 References: 5, 6, 7, 14, 16, 20, 25, 26, 27,
principal corridors12 (30 minutes in the                28, 34, 36, 40]
case of the Yorkshire and the Humber                    {Part 3: Tables 3, 6}
and North East via Leeds corridor) on a
                                                        9. North South Links and High
7 day/week basis with service start and
                                                        Speed Rail
finish time giving 95% of air passengers
the option of using rail for their inbound              1.20 To meet forecasts and
and outbound legs connecting the                        requirements13 for a doubling of
Airport with each of the Northern city                  West Coast Main Line demand by
regions. Services should share in the                   2026 and with such provision as
journey time gains (as in Output 4)                     indicated as being appropriate by the
and performance gains (as specified in                  National Networks Strategy Group,
Output 3).                                              to accommodate High Speed 2
[Part 2 References: 5, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18,    (HS2) options to and beyond central
19, 24, 26, 27, 28, 30, 34, 41, 42]                     Manchester, together with a possible
{Part 3: Tables 2, 5 – line 11}                         parkway station.
                                                        [Part 2 References: 5, 6, 8, 14, 20, 26, 27, 28]
                                                        {Part 3: Table 7}
10 See “To Other Manchester Hub Corridors”
   columns in these tables.
11 With recognition given to longer term stakeholder   13 In terms of capacity at terminals and access/
   ambitions for no interchange en route and in the        egress capacity, and to meet journey time and
   case of Corridors 8 and 10, direct services to the      performance requirements as set out in the DfT
   Airport without the need to pass through central        West Coast Strategy and as advised in due
   Manchester.                                             course by DfT in relation to HSR/West Coast relief
12 As defined in footnote 5                                line in respect of such issues as train length and
                                                           route electrification.
11                                                         Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

10. Freight
1.21 Provision for a doubling of
freight tonnage from existing and new
origins and destinations to/from the
multi-modal terminals at Trafford Park
and elsewhere in the North West by
[Part 2 References: 21, 24, 27, 26, 27, 28, 37]
{Part 3: Paragraph 3.10}

  The Northern Way’s Strategic Direction for Transport identifies that to support economic growth
  of the North there needs to be adequate capacity, so that journeys can be made reliably and
  with reasonable journey times for links within city regions, between city regions and to access
  international gateways.

  Meeting the Conditional Outputs will contribute to meeting these needs by:

  ●● Within Manchester City Region
      ●● Providing capacity for commuting (Output 1)
      ●● Which is reliable and punctual (Output 3)
      ●● And has attractive journey times and frequencies (Output 4)
      ●● Serving range of destinations in the City Region (Output 5)
      ●● Offering connectivity to interchange to other rail services (Output 6)
  ●● Between City Regions
      ●● Providing capacity for longer distance trips (Output 1)
      ●● Which is reliable and punctual (Output 3)
      ●● And has attractive journey times and frequencies (Output 4)
      ●● Enhances city regions to city regions connectivity (Output 6) particularly on the key trans
         Pennine corridor (Output 8) and north south links (Output 9)
  ●● To international gateways
      ●● Enhances rail access across the North to Manchester Airport (Output 7)
      ●● Supports growth in inter-modal rail freight (Output 10)

  Underpinning the Northern Way’s Strategic Direction for Transport is the need for the North to
  contribute to the national effort to tackle climate change through the development of a low carbon
  transport system (Output 2)

14 As per DfT Rail White Paper Delivering a
   Sustainable Railway Cm 7176, July 2007
12   Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement
13                                              Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

Part 2: The Evidence Base for the
Economic Case for Enhancing
Manchester Hub Capacity and
Introduction                                  “The Government’s central economic
                                              objective is to raise the rate of
2.1 There is extensive evidence on how        sustainable growth and achieve rising
the economic performance of the North         prosperity and a better quality of
is affected by transport links in general     life, with economic and employment
and rail links in particular. There is also   opportunities for all. Unfulfilled
evidence on the specific economic case        economic potential must be released to
for investment in the Manchester Hub.         increase the long-term growth rate of
This evidence is the subject of Part 2.       the UK. The Government’s vision is that
                                              every region in England should perform
2.2 It should be recognised that
                                              to its full potential and become more
the relationship between transport
                                              competitive in an increasingly global
investment and economic growth has
                                              economy.” (HMT, 2007:3)
been the subject of much research
over many years and that while our            2.5 The importance of the contribution
understanding of this inter-relationship      of the Britain’s city regions to regional
may be improving, there is always             and national economic prosperity
scope to argue both the generalities          has become widely recognised. They
and the specifics of particular pieces of     are the drivers of economic growth,
evidence.                                     which means that the economic
                                              growth of our cities, regional economic
2.3 Of course, promoting the
                                              growth and economic growth of the
economy is not the only objective of
                                              country as a whole are inextricably
the Government’s transport agenda
                                              linked. Consequently in recent years
which also includes environmental
                                              supporting the sustainable economic
considerations (including carbon)
                                              growth of cities has become a
and quality of life issues. Equally,
                                              centrepiece of urban and transport
the Manchester Hub is not the only
                                              policy (ODPM (2000), Northern Way
transport intervention that will facilitate
                                              (2004), Eddington (2006), Parkinson
economic growth in the North, although
                                              (2006a), Parkinson (2006b), Department
stakeholders across the North have
                                              for Transport (DfT) (2007)). However, it
agreed it to be the most important
                                              is also well established that the North’s
challenge facing the rail network of the
                                              city regions while making a substantial
                                              contribution to the national economy,
Regions, City Regions and the                 on a per capita basis under perform
Economy                                       the national average and city region
                                              economies in the South East. The
2.4 As part of the 2007 Comprehensive         North’s city regions are not meeting
Spending Review, the Government set           their full potential (Parkinson (2006a)).
out its vision for the performance of the
English regions:                                City region economies drive
                                                regional and national growth.
                                                The North’s city regions perform
                                                below the national average
                                                and are not meeting their full
                                                potential. The Government
                                                has set out its vision that each
                                                region should perform to its full
                                                economic potential.
14                                            Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

Connectivity and the Economy                ●● “to support national economic
                                               competitiveness and growth, by
2.6 Eddington (2006) argued that the           delivering reliable and efficient
UK is already well connected and that          transport networks;
the key economic challenge is to improve    ●● to reduce transport’s emissions of
the performance of the existing network.       carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
He argued that to meet its economic            gases, with the desired outcome of
goals of supporting sustainable growth         tackling climate change;
Government should prioritise “action
                                            ●● to contribute to better safety, security
on those parts of the system where
                                               and health and longer life expectancy
networks are critical in supporting
                                               by reducing the risk of death, injury
economic growth and that there are
                                               or illness arising from transport, and
clear signals that these networks are
                                               by promoting travel modes that are
not performing” (Eddington (2006:6)). To
                                               beneficial to health;
Eddington, this means concentrating on
                                            ●● to promote greater equality of
the capacity and performance of existing
                                               opportunity for all citizens, with the
links. However, while arguing that the
                                               desired outcome of achieving a fairer
nation is broadly well connected, he
                                               society; and
recognised that there could be a case for
“the addition of new links to support the   ●● to improve quality of life for transport
growth and performance of the labour           users and non-transport users,
market in growing and congested urban          and to promote a healthy natural
areas” (Eddington (2006:13)). This led         environment.” DfT (2008a:7)
to a policy prescription from Eddington
consistent with the position that the
                                            2.8 The Department also helpfully
Northern Way reached in its earlier 2004
                                            restates Eddington’s conclusion
Growth Strategy, namely that:
                                            that the connectivity of the nation’s
“[t]he strategic economic priorities for    transport network is good is a “broad
transport policy should be: congested       generalistion” but “it is not equally
and growing urban areas and their           true for all cities” (DfT (2008a:21)). It is
catchments; together with key inter-        recognised that there may be a need to
urban corridors and key international       develop new links as well as enhance
gateways that are showing signs of          the capacity and performance of
increasing congestion and unreliability.”   existing ones.
Eddington (2006:32)
                                              To support economic growth
2.7 This policy prescription has since
                                              there needs to be adequate
been endorsed by the Department for
                                              capacity, so that journeys can
Transport in its Towards a Sustainable
                                              be made reliably and with
Transport System (DfT, 2007), its
                                              reasonable journey times:
response to the Eddington and Stern
reports and more recently in Delivering       ●● within city regions;
a Sustainable Transport System (DfT,          ●● between city regions; and
2008a), in which the Department sets
                                              ●● to access international
out its processes towards developing an
expenditure plan for the period 2014 to
                                              Not all city regions are equally
2019 within the context of a longer term
                                              well connected. Facilitating
sustainable transport strategy. Covering
                                              economic growth may require
both the economy and the Government’s
                                              provision of new links to provide
wider agenda, the Department has set its
                                              new capacity and capability.
goals for the transport system to be:
15                                                Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

Connectivity and the North’s                    2.11 While pre-dating Eddington,
City Regions                                    with regard to connectivity the Growth
                                                Strategy identified a policy prescription
2.9 The Northern Way (2004) in its              almost identical to that later piece of
Growth Strategy identifies a number             work, namely:
of reasons why there is a differential
economic performance between the                ●● enhancing links within the North’s
North and the South, and between                   city regions, particularly by public
the city regions of the North. Each                transport
is strongly influenced by the historic          ●● enhancing links between the North’s
legacy of the Northern economy                     city regions, notably the Leeds
which was largely dependent on                     Manchester corridor
manufacturing and extractive industries,        ●● enhancing links to port and airport
but has since the 1970s experienced                international gateways, both in the
a significant shift away from these                North and elsewhere in the UK
traditional industries to a more
service-based economy (although                   Enhancing connectivity within
manufacturing remains an important                the North’s city regions,
industry in the North). The goal of               between the North’s city regions
the Northern Way is to help address               and to international gateways is
the underperformance of the North’s               an integral part of the Northern
economy as a whole by promoting the               Way’s Growth Strategy to
accelerated growth of the North’s eight           accelerate the North’s economic
city regions15. To this end, the Northern         growth. There is good evidence
Way Growth Strategy identifies the                to support this contention.
importance of enhancing the North’s
skill base, supporting the development
of a more entrepreneurial culture,              Connectivity between the
supporting greater innovation by firms in       North’s City Regions
the North, promoting more sustainable
communities, raising the international          2.12 Ensuring appropriate and
profile of the North and enhancing the          adequate connectivity within and
North’s connectivity.                           between city regions, and to and from
                                                international gateways is an integral
2.10 The Northern Way Growth                    part of the policy prescription from
Strategy echoes the findings of others          Eddington and in their response to
that while good connectivity alone is           Eddington, the approach adopted by
not a sufficient condition to support           the Department for Transport. Looking
economic growth it is a necessary               at the North overall, the Northern Way
one. Similar conclusions were made              has identified that existing connectivity
by Parkinson et al (2006a, 2006b)               between the North’s city regions is seen
and Institute of Political and Economic         as an impediment to maximising the
Governance (IPEG) et al (2008), who             rate of economic growth in the North.
in particular found that, “whilst it is not
an absolute truth to claim that places
become economically successful
because they are well connected,
[we] found powerful evidence of
correspondence between the two”
(IPEG (2008:18)).

15 These are: Liverpool, Manchester, Central
   Lancashire, Sheffield, Leeds, Hull and the
   Humber, Tees Valley and Tyne and Wear.
16                                             Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

2.13 Moving beyond the general               four key activity clusters that stood
prescription of Eddington that links         out in terms of their importance in
between and within city regions are          contributing to the North West’s
important to economic growth, how the        economy and their recent economic
city regions in the North interact and the   dynamism. These are Manchester
importance of linkages between them          (particularly south Manchester and
has been explored in some depth first        north Cheshire), Liverpool, Chester/
by Sustainable Urban and Regional            North Wales and Preston. They also
Futures (SURF) et al (2006) in a study       identified as important the economic
for NWDA that focussed on the North          linkages between the North West
West, and subsequently as part of a          and West Yorkshire in general, and
North-wide analysis by IPEG et al (2008)     Manchester and Leeds in particular,
for the Northern Way.                        both in terms of overlapping journey
                                             to work catchments and the potential
2.14 The study by SURF et al for             for greater business to business
NWDA used five research strands to           interaction. Their work highlighted the
inform the derivation of their overall       importance to businesses in these five
findings. These were surveys of Small        nodes of access to international air
and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which         services at Manchester Airport.
were conducted with the collaboration
of key Chambers of Commerce;                 2.15 SURF et al concluded:
work with secondary data sources
to look at the organisation of larger        “the economic importance of our five
firms; work looking at the interaction       nodes will continue to grow in future
between key higher education                 years. All the evidence is that ‘path
institutions and businesses; interviews      dependency’ is a powerful logic that
with key corporations; and, analysis         is likely to see recent trends being
of econometric data. From these five         maintained and deepened. As a result,
workstreams SURF et al identified            economic and spatial strategies for the
17                                           Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

North West that aim to realize economic    regions, the smaller outlying growth
potential need to: (a) give substantial    centres around York, Chester and
attention to the four [North West] nodes   Preston and the Tyne and Wear city
and the connections between them;          region in the North East” IPEG et al
and (b) continue to bear in mind the       (2008:35)
opportunities that might arise from
developments across the Pennines”          and
SURF et al (2006: unpaginated)             “This invites…a strategic approach to
2.16 Their work also led them to           inter-city connectivity focused upon
conclude:                                  prioritising interaction between relative
                                           ‘equals’ (for instance Manchester and
●● “The crucial importance, for …          Leeds) or between centres which
   [the North West], of expanding the      vary in their economic specialisms (for
   international linkages provided by      instance Liverpool and Manchester)
   Manchester Airport and further          which would also improve the labour
   improving its accessibility along       market between them. There would
   with that of the quickly-expanding      appear to be particular value in
   John Lennon airport whose growth        developing this approach to promoting
   has underpinned recent economic         cross-Pennine links – including better
   improvement in the Liverpool city-      access to Manchester Airport from
   region                                  Leeds – given that the Pennines
●● The importance of improvements          continue to act as a barrier to realising
   in connectivity within city-regions     the joint agglomeration potential of the
   in enabling stronger labour market      North’s largest and most dynamic city
   linkages between areas of need and      regions” IPEG et al (2008:37)
   growth, and
                                           2.19 As part of a Research
●● The economic value of good quality,
                                           Programme, the Northern Way is
   fast and reliable transport links
                                           sponsoring work by the LSE’s Spatial
   to London.” SURF et al (2006:
                                           Economics Research Centre (SERC)
                                           which will extend further the evidence
                                           base on the future development of
2.17 The work by IPEG et al (2008)         economic links between Leeds and
extends the analysis undertaken by         Manchester. This work is scheduled to
SURF et al to the whole of the North.      conclude in autumn 2009 and will then
Again using a mixture of targeted          be published on the Northern Way’s
surveys, analyses of econometric           web site.
data and analyses of secondary data
sources, the work explored three
themes: the roles and economic               Enhancing links between the
functions of the North’s city regions,       North’s city regions will support
connectivity within and between city         and facilitate future economic
regions and how the North’s city regions     growth. Enhancing the trans-
stand within a national hierarchy.           Pennine corridor will support
                                             growth of the North’s two
2.18 IPEG et al concluded:                   largest city region economies
                                             and will also benefit the wider
“the prosperity of the North as a            North.
whole will be increasingly driven by
the economic performance of the
Manchester and Leeds city regions and
the putative growth belt that connects
them to the Sheffield and Liverpool city
18                                              Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

Connectivity within the North’s               a time when rail has had a degree of
City Regions                                  excess capacity and has been able
                                              to accommodate growth. Now on-
2.20 As has already been highlighted,         train crowding is becoming significant
city regions are seen as the engines          (Network Rail, 2007 and 2008) so the
of economic growth. The importance            absence of capacity to accommodate
of connectivity within city regions           further growth in peak period rail trip
to support economic growth has                making, as well as the constraints on
been identified by the Northern Way           the rail network’s scope and reach
Growth Strategy (Northern Way,                have been identified as a threat to
2004), the Northern Way’s Strategic           the city’s future economic growth
Direction for Transport (2006) and by         (Association of Greater Manchester
Eddington (2006). Through their City          Authorities (AGMA), (2007)).
Region Development Programmes
and other strategic documents, city
regions across the North have each              Manchester’s rail network has
identified the importance of enhancing          facilitated the city’s sustainable
connectivity within city regions to             economic growth by supporting
support future economic growth.                 the growth in city centre
                                                employment. However, on-train
2.21 What is seen across the North              crowding and the current scope
is that in peak hours road networks             and reach of the network limits
are operating at or close to their              the scope for future growth.
operational capacity (Steer Davies
Gleave, 2008b). Congestion leads to
extended journey times and unreliable         2.23 By comparing the economic
journeys. This has an economic cost.          interactions between Reading and
Significantly, there is little capacity for   London, and Burnley and Manchester,
peak hour trip growth by road, with           Centre for Cities (2008) focussed on
growth in trip making accommodated            the links between large city region
by either peak spreading (which               economies and smaller towns and
in turn results in congestion being           cities that fall within their economic
experienced in other time periods) or         influence. They found that towns
by increasing public transport use.           such as Burnley are not integrated
                                              within the Manchester labour market
2.22 This is the experience of
                                              despite being close in terms of
Leeds and Manchester, the two
                                              distance. This was in marked contrast
most significant city economies in
                                              to the situation observed between
the North. In recent years both city
                                              Reading and London where Centre
centres have experienced employment
                                              for Cities identified a strong economic
growth while neither city centre has
                                              interaction. They went on to identify
experienced commensurate growth in
                                              the strong transport links between
peak hour car commuting. However,
                                              Reading and London and the poor
both city centres have experienced
                                              transport links between Burnley
a significant growth in peak hour
                                              and Manchester as explanatory
rail (and in the case of Manchester,
                                              factors. They conclude “the issues of
Metrolink) demand (see GMTU (2008),
                                              connectivity between core cities and
Metro (2008)). This has led to the
                                              their neighbouring areas play a key role
conclusion that it is public transport
                                              in explaining differences in economic
which has accommodated recent
                                              performance in regional economic
growth in city centre employment in
                                              performance between the North and
these two key locations in the North.
                                              Greater South East” (Centre for Cities
However, this growth has occurred at
                                              (2008:18)).leading to a prescription that
19                                            Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

enhanced links between core cities in       International Links
the North (such as Manchester) and
smaller near-by towns would increase        2.26 Thus far we have summarised the
the spill-over effects from the larger      evidence on the importance to future
economy and boost economic growth.          economic growth of links within and
                                            between city regions and links within
2.24 As IPEG at al (2008) describe          city regions. Also of importance is
the effect of poor connectivity leading     international connectivity. York Aviation
to limited economic interaction is not      (2006) in their study of the economic
limited to towns close to the larger city   importance of the Manchester Airport
economies. It can also occur within city    Group companies has identified the
regions. Looking at the Manchester          following economic impacts of air
City Region IPEG at al show that while      transport:
GVA in the Greater Manchester South
NUTS3 area has grown more than any          ●● Direct impacts: employment, income
other location in the North, growth in         or outputs that are wholly or largely
Greater Manchester North has been              related to the operation of an airport
lowest. In part this is attributed to the      and are generated either on-site or in
relatively poor north-south links within       the surrounding area
the Manchester City Region resulting        ●● Indirect impacts: employment,
in the north of the conurbation not            income or outputs that are in the
enjoying spillover effects from growth in      chain of suppliers of goods and
the south.                                     services to the direct activities
                                            ●● Induced impacts: employment,
2.25 Supported by the Northern Way’s           income or outputs that are due to
Research Programme, work is in hand            household spending resulting from
to look further at the spillover effects       direct and indirect employment
from stronger to weaker economies
                                            ●● Catalytic impacts: employment,
identified by Centre for Cities. The
                                               income or outputs that are generated
findings of this work will be published
                                               by new businesses locating to the
on the Northern Way’s web site in due
                                               region, inward investments and
                                               inbound tourism; and
                                            ●● Productivity/competitive advantage
  Linking areas of economic need               impacts: employment, income or
  such as North Manchester                     outputs gains amongst existing
  or the Pennine Lancashire                    businesses in the economy due
  towns with locations with                    to increased export volumes and
  stronger economic growth                     productivity improvements.
  like Manchester City Centre,
  South Manchester and around
  Manchester Airport supports
  the stronger areas by extending
  labour markets, while at the
  same time facilitating spill over
  effects into the weaker areas.
20                                             Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

2.27 As York Aviation highlight, while       2.29 Manchester Airport (2007) has
challenging to quantify, the consensus       identified that surface access capacity
is that the catalytic impacts and the        is the most significant constraint on
productivity and competitive advantage       its future growth and therefore the
impacts of air transport greatly outweigh    economic benefits that it can help
the direct, indirect and induced impacts.    deliver to the Northern economy. It has
These significant impacts come about         identified increasing public transport
because provision of international air       mode share as the most effective and
services:                                    efficient way of overcoming these
●● is an important element in company
   location decisions. The presence          2.30 Unpublished market research
   of an international airport can be a      undertaken in 2005 for Trans Pennine
   important factor in:                      Express (ORC International, 2005)
   ●● attracting new investment from         has demonstrated that while the
       outside the area, and especially      period from 05:00 to 10:00 has the
       companies from overseas;              greatest volume of travellers arriving at
   ●● retaining existing companies           Manchester Airport to check-in for their
       in the area, whether they had         departing flights, it also has lower rail
       previously been inward investors      mode share than the period from 10:00
       or indigenous operations;             to 16:00. Air passengers have a high
   ●● securing the expansion of              awareness of rail as an access option,
       existing companies in the face of     but do not use it as rail does not allow
       competition with other areas;         them to arrive at the airport in time for
                                             their flight. The same research also
●● promotes the export success of
                                             shows that for those air passengers
   companies located in the area by the
                                             who consider using rail the three
   provision of passenger and freight
                                             most significant deterrents were the
   links to key markets;
                                             frequency of service, journey reliability
●● enhances the competitiveness of           and lack of a direct service.
   the economy, and the companies
   in it, through its fast and efficient     2.31 The importance of direct services
   passenger and freight services;           has been quantified by Lythgoe and
●● attracts inbound tourism, including       Wardman (2002), who demonstrated
   both business and leisure visitors, to    that air passengers using rail to access
   the area.                                 an airport have a greater value of
                                             time than other rail passengers and
2.28 Manchester Airport is the most          also that they place a greater penalty
significant airport in the North, catering   on interchange than other types of
for more passengers than all the other       rail passenger. Interestingly, Lythgoe
northern airports combined. It is the        and Wardman also showed that the
only airport in the North with a network     elasticity to GDP of air travellers is
of inter-continental scheduled services      greater than for other rail passengers
and the only airport in the North that       (this means that the number of air
caters for a substantial volume of air       passengers using rail grows at a faster
freight. It is the largest airport in the    rate for each unit of GDP growth than
UK outside the South East and the            other rail passengers). The finding
only airport in the North identified in      on interchange has been reinforced
Delivering a Sustainable Transport           by work by consultants LEK (2003)
System as a key international airport        in a study commissioned jointly by
gateway (DfT, 2008a).                        Manchester Airport Group, the DfT,
                                             the Strategic Rail Authority and
                                             Network Rail to develop rail options for
21                                            Manchester Hub Conditional Output Statement

Manchester Airport, in turn to inform
the 2004 Airports White Paper. This           Manchester Airport delivers
work concluded that the city centre           substantial economic benefits to
catchment area is much less important         the North which will grow as the
to Manchester Airport, than the centre        Airport grows. Surface access
of London is to the London airports.          capacity is the most significant
Using 2001 data it showed that rail’s         constraint to the Airport’s
market share is highest in the areas          future growth. Increasing public
served by North Trans Pennine services        transport mode share is the
(13.9%) and the Lancaster/Windermere/         preferred way to overcome
Barrow services (15.4%), compared             these constraints.
with the then average rail share of 5.3%.
This work reported statistical analysis     2.34 The three estuarial port
which showed that whether or not            complexes in the North around the
locations were linked by direct services    Humber, the Tees and the Mersey serve
to Manchester Airport was a significant     national roles. Measured by tonnes
explanatory variable for rail mode share,   lifted in 2006 Grimsby and Immingham
with those locations with direct services   on the Humber is the largest port in the
having a higher mode share.                 country, Tees and Hartlepool is ranked
                                            second and the Port of Liverpool sixth.
2.32 More recently, DfT (2008b:19)
                                            These northern ports are national
repeated the position reached by the
                                            assets. The Mersey ports are the
Northern Way that, “congestion during
                                            principal national gateway port for short
the peak periods on the rail services
                                            sea shipping to Ireland and deep sea
leads to delays and services being
                                            shipping to North America. The Tees
terminated at Manchester Piccadilly,
                                            and Humber ports are best located
with negative impacts on passenger
                                            to serve the Scandinavian, Baltic
experience. Passenger perception
                                            and North European markets. The
that rail is not reliable (because of the
                                            hinterland of the North’s ports extends
Manchester Hub congestion) also
                                            well beyond the three northern regions
suppresses demand for rail travel as
                                            into the Midlands and Scotland, and
passengers place a high value on
                                            into the South East for some traffic.
reliability and journey time for airport
journeys.” The importance of direct         2.35 These ports play a significant
rail services to airports has also been     role to the economy of each of the
demonstrated in DfT-commissioned            regions within which they sit. This is
qualitative research on air passengers’     through their direct contributions to
journey experiences by Sykes and            employment, and through associated
Desai (2009:17) which reported, “where      benefits that are opened up by the
available, trains were regarded as          linkages created and that attract
a good alternative to road travel by        investment and business to the area.
some respondents, especially where          As MDS Transmodal (2006) identify, in a
the train route was straightforward         similar way to airports there are direct,
and services frequent and reliable.         indirect and induced economic impacts
However, participants also worried          of ports, as well as catalytic impacts.
about unscheduled cancellations of          Given that the vast majority of imported
train services, delays and missed           and exported goods arrive and depart
connections over which they had little      by sea, these wider impacts are clearly
control.”                                   substantial and are likely to be far
                                            greater in magnitude than the direct
2.33 The evidence that direct and
                                            impacts which can be quantified.
reliable rail services to the airport
maximise rail mode share is very strong.
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