REPORT 05.11.20 - Baker Institute

Page created by Edgar Fields
 
CONTINUE READING
REPORT 05.11.20 - Baker Institute
REPORT 05.11.20
Is There a Practical Roadmap for
Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” Vision?
Gilead Sher, Isaac and Mildred Brochstein Fellow in Middle East Peace and Security
in Honor of Yitzhak Rabin
Daniel Cohen, Intern, Center for the Middle East

                                                   concessions for Palestinian sovereignty over
1. INTRODUCTION
                                                   any part of the Old City or the Temple Mount,
As a potential “Deal of the Century,”              eliciting further Palestinian scorn for the plan.
President Donald Trump’s “Peace to                 Both stipulations disregard carefully crafted
Prosperity” plan does not live up to its           compromises from former negotiations—the
name. It falls well short of an ultimate           Oslo process, Camp David, and Annapolis—
deal that will break the Israeli-Palestinian       which offered detailed sovereignty-sharing
gridlock and equitably resolve the conflict.       proposals and special security arrangements.
It is more accurately a continuation of            Even worse, while the Trump plan licenses
previous interim agreements—essentially,           Israel to initiate annexation without any
an Oslo C—but with a significant departure         preconditions, Palestinian statehood
from past negotiation understandings.1             is conditioned upon a compilation of                While the Trump plan
The truly innovative components of the             unreasonable and impractical thresholds—
                                                   all but assuring Palestinian failure.
                                                                                                       licenses Israel to initiate
deal bend unabashedly toward Israeli
desires, without compensatory elements                   It is worth noting that while the plan        annexation without
for Palestinian aspirations. The distortion of     has not received strong Arab support,               any preconditions,
internal balances previously established in        neither has it been rejected as strongly            Palestinian statehood
other U.S. frameworks seems detrimental to         as the Palestinians might wish. The Arab
                                                                                                       is conditioned upon
promoting peace or regional security.              League has dismissed the peace plan as
                                                   insufficient for Palestinian independence;3         a compilation of
      Previous negotiations have recognized
a distinction between the main Jewish              nevertheless, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar,           unreasonable and
settlement blocs near the pre-1967 Green           and the United Arab Emirates have all issued        impractical thresholds—
Line and more isolated Jewish settlements          statements tepidly welcoming Trump’s                all but assuring
in the heart of the West Bank, but Trump’s         proposal and calling for negotiations.4 In the
                                                   past, a plan like this would have received
                                                                                                       Palestinian failure.
plan allows for Israeli annexation of all
Jewish settlements.2 Though the Clinton            resounding criticism from all Arab parties.
Parameters recognized the significance             Today, with shifting Middle East alliances and
of the Jordan Valley to Israeli security and       threats—i.e., Iran—moderate Sunni states are
would have created a six-year plan for             concerned with displeasing Trump and are
Israeli withdrawal from it, Trump’s plan           increasingly open to establishing relations
offers Israel political sovereignty over the       with Israel.5
Jordan Valley.                                           At the very least, Trump’s plan serves
      The plan envisions Israeli control of        as a harsh reminder to the Palestinians that
the Palestinian state’s airspace, sea, and         time is not in their favor. Yet, this should
electromagnetic spectrum, as well as all           not deceive Israelis into thinking time is on
borders and crossing points. There are also no     their side. The Trump plan could harden
                                                   the Israeli center-right to tolerate fewer
BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20

                                     compromises in future negotiations, enter          year timeline for its implementation, yet the
                                     a new potential spoiler into the Israeli-          potential sequencing of the plan—first Israeli
                                     Palestinian peace process, and lead Israel         annexation, then the rest, if at all—negates
                                     down a perilous path to international              the possibility of a functional process.
                                     demonization and social upheaval.                       The introduction of the grand deal
                                          Though it is unfortunate for both sides,      has been marred from the start by a lack
                                     the Trump plan will shape the negotiation          of cohesion on the part of the Trump
                                     process for years to come—regardless of            administration regarding the timeframe for
                                     the results of the U.S. 2020 presidential          Israeli annexation of West Bank territory.
The Trump plan will                  elections. It will serve as a point of reference   Immediately after the press conference in
                                     in future negotiations for those strongly in       Washington announcing the deal, Benjamin
serve as a point of                  favor of it and those staunchly opposed,           Netanyahu indicated that the Knesset
reference in future                  just as many other plans in the wastebasket        would draft an annexation proposal within
negotiations for those               of history have continued to influence the         the week, with full support from the White
strongly in favor of it              peace process. Since all parties involved          House.6 Two days later, Jared Kushner,
                                     will undoubtedly bear the consequences             Trump’s son-in-law and one of the creators
and those staunchly                  of the Peace to Prosperity plan, it is worth       of the Peace to Prosperity vision, said the
opposed, just as                     examining the implementation issues and            Trump administration would prefer Israel
many other plans in the              the proposed framework, as well as how             wait until after the March elections to annex
wastebasket of history               Israelis, Palestinians, and Arab states can        territory, citing a months-long process of
                                     navigate the negotiation process.                  required technical work on the vision’s map.7
have continued to
                                          Of course, the Covid-19 pandemic has          Now, the target date for annexation agreed
influence the                        placed many foreign policy issues on hold          by the Netanyahu-Gantz 2020 coalition
peace process.                       as the world copes with the health crisis.         matches the political campaigning of Trump
                                     This will not erase the Israeli-Palestinian        and Netanyahu. The way is open to proceed.
                                     conflict, nor the problems of the Trump plan.           According to a recent INSS Insight,
                                     Rather, once the pandemic has subsided,            however, Israel must prepare for the
                                     the geopolitical challenges facing the Middle      repercussions of annexation under a Biden
                                     East will resurface, amplified. Then, perhaps      administration: “The former Vice President
                                     all parties involved can utilize the post-         stated in August 2019 that ‘we have to
                                     Covid-19 years to attempt resolving—or             put pressure constantly on the Israelis to
                                     at least subduing—issues critical to the           move to a two-state solution.’ Yet the
                                     resolution of the conflict.                        coalition agreement between Likud and
                                                                                        Blue and White, which is the foundation
                                                                                        for the new Israeli government, permits
                                     2. ANNEXATION, IMPLEMENTATION,                     Netanyahu to raise the issue of annexing
                                     AND NEGOTIATION NON-STARTERS                       or extending Israeli law to sections of the
                                                                                        West Bank as of July 1, 2020. Because
                                     2.1. Sequencing and Deriving Annexation
                                                                                        such steps are viewed by Washington’s
                                     Given the total absence of Palestinian             foreign policy establishment as disrupting
                                     involvement in planning and implementing           or even preventing progress toward a two-
                                     the deal, the current deal has no way of           state solution, any unilateral annexation
                                     serving as is as a driver to resolving the         initiatives in the West Bank by Israel under
                                     conflict. Instead, it will further blur the        the auspices of Trump’s ‘deal of the century’
                                     borders between two states, as the Israeli         (before or during Biden’s tenure) would
                                     right-wing looks to ensure a continued             aggravate tensions with a future Biden
                                     presence in Judea and Samaria.                     administration.”8
                                          Furthermore, the deal may give Israel a            Netanyahu and others have continued
                                     green light to initiate unilateral annexation—     to trumpet the security strength of the plan,
                                     or accomplish its equivalent by “extending         particularly due to the strategic necessity of
                                     Israeli law”—over Jewish settlements in the        the Jordan Valley.9,10 However, in previous
                                     West Bank and the Jordan Valley, starting          negotiations Israel has not asked for a
                                     July 1, 2020. Trump’s plan envisions a four-       sovereign border in the Jordan Valley, but
2
IS THERE A PRACTICAL ROADMAP FOR TRUMP’S “PEACE TO PROSPERITY” VISION?

merely an adequate security presence and          allocated Palestinian sovereignty over Arab
complementary arrangements with Israeli           neighborhoods and Israeli sovereignty over
intelligence capabilities.11 Security experts     Jewish neighborhoods. These partitioned
agree that a gradual withdrawal from the          Palestinian neighborhoods were to be
Valley, perhaps with American or UN forces        declared the Palestinian capital. The Old
stationed as well, can provide Israel with        City would have an international status and
the necessary intelligence and security to        would be governed by five countries: Israel,
the east.12                                       Palestine, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the
     Rather than advancing a reckless and         United States.
irreversible annexation project detrimental            Palestinian Authority President
to a two-state-for two-people solution,           Mahmoud Abbas was outraged by the Trump
Israel and the U.S. should clarify and            administration’s treatment of Jerusalem,
re-sequence the negotiations under the            declaring “I will not have it recorded in my
plan. They must commit to the deal as a           history that I have sold Jerusalem.”16 The
starting point, not an endpoint. From the         status of Jerusalem is a grave concern for
outset, Trump and Netanyahu must eschew           Muslims around the world, and Palestinian
unilateral action in favor of multilateral        leaders are beholden to their Palestinian
good-faith negotiations. This is necessary        constituency and their Arab allies. Abbas
but not sufficient for advancing negotiations,    cannot surrender a capital in holy Jerusalem
as the deal contains significant non-starters     (Al-Quds), and any sensible plan must
regarding Jerusalem, Palestinian sovereignty,     recognize the utmost importance of
borders, and water rights.                        Palestinian sovereignty in at least the Muslim
                                                  Quarter of the Old City. Such recognition was
2.2. Jerusalem                                    reflected in both the December 2000 Clinton
Trump’s plan calls for Jerusalem to               parameters and the 2008 Olmert proposal.
remain the undivided capital of Israel and
establishes a Palestinian capital comprising      2.3. Sovereignty and Borders
Abu Dis, Kafr Aqab, and Shuafat.13 The            The proposed map of the “Deal of the
neighborhoods that would become the               Century” offers Palestinians a piecemeal          Rather than advancing a
Palestinian capital are only nominally            state and renders statehood moot by               reckless and irreversible
included in Jerusalem, and leave out what         proffering Palestinian autonomy without
is truly important to the Palestinians: the       sovereign self-rule. Trump’s plan gives
                                                                                                    annexation project
Old City and the Temple Mount. The Trump          Israel “overriding security responsibility        detrimental to a two-
administration has boldly proclaimed that         over the State of Palestine,” which includes      state-for two-people
Israel’s current capital in Jerusalem will        responsibility for all international crossings    solution, Israel and
remain, while deceptively claiming to offer       into Palestine and control of the state’s
                                                                                                    the U.S. should clarify
the Palestinians a capital in East Jerusalem.14   airspace and electromagnetic spectrum.17
Rather, the neighborhoods selected to be          Israeli control of Palestinian borders            and re-sequence the
the Palestinian capital were chosen because       and airspace undermines the essence               negotiations under
they lie to the east of the security barrier.     of Palestinian sovereignty, and offers            the plan.
     This is a far cry from the Palestinian       Palestinians little more than they already
capital envisioned in previous U.S. proposals.    have: autonomy and self-governance
Under the Clinton Parameters, the Christian       without ultimate jurisdiction. This
and Muslim Quarters of the Old City would         contravenes the Palestinian state envisioned
be under Palestinian sovereignty, and             in the Clinton Parameters, which would have
the Temple Mount would be partitioned             retained sovereignty over its airspace with
vertically to provide Palestinian sovereignty     special security considerations for Israel.
over Al-Aqsa and the Dome of the Rock                  The Trump plan proposes a Palestinian
and Israeli sovereignty over the Western          state fully encircled within the sovereign
Wall.15 At the 2008 Annapolis talks between       borders of Israel, including the Jordan Valley.
Ehud Olmert and Mahmoud Abbas, a                  Moreover, Jewish enclaves deep within
proposed partition of Jerusalem would have        Palestinian territory would be connected to
                                                                                                                             3
BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20

                                     Israel via complex roadways that compromise        Palestinians will relinquish natural water
                                     the security of Israel and the territorial         resources and rely solely on desalination and
                                     contiguity of Palestine. In contrast, the          other technologies. Water was one of the
                                     Clinton Parameters proposed a Palestinian          seven pillars of the 1994 Israel-Jordan peace
                                     state on 94%-96% of the West Bank; the             agreement and an essential component the
                                     possibility of a special arrangement on up         1995 Oslo II Accords.24 However, the water
                                     to 2% more of West Bank territory; and             commitments included in Oslo were never
                                     additional land near Gaza earmarked for a          effectuated as part of a permanent status
                                     Palestinian state. The West Bank territory         agreement.
                                     annexed to Israel would have allowed                    Today, Israel controls approximately
                                     Israel to encompass 80% of settlements.            80% of water reserves in West Bank aquifers,
                                     The Jordan Valley would be sovereign               and until 2017, all Palestinian water projects
                                     Palestinian territory, but Israel would be able    required approval by the Israeli-Palestinian
                                     to maintain a military presence there for up       Joint Water Committee (JWC).25 In 2017,
                                     to six years.18 Instead, Trump’s approach          Israel and the Palestinian Authority signed
The proposed map                     ensures an untenable level of daily friction       an agreement giving the PA autonomy over
                                     by entrenching the Israeli security apparatus      water and sewage projects in Areas A and B,
adds 1,400 kilometers
                                     around a future Palestine, and within it, to       and Palestinian sections of Area C.26 Despite
to Israel’s borders.                 secure Israeli enclaves.                           this progress, water sharing remains a
How will all these                        The conceptual map19 of the Trump             fundamental issue for the Palestinians. Israeli
borders be overseen                  plan creates a whole host of uncertainties         sovereignty over the Jordan Valley would only
in a secure and                      for Israeli security.20 Will the borders           exacerbate the dispute over water access
                                     between Israel and a future Palestine have         in the Jordan River basin. The Economic
comprehensive                        free passage? If so, how will Israel maintain      Framework of the Peace to Prosperity plan
manner?                              border security, and if not, what will Israel      claims to invest in the Palestinian economy
                                     do to prevent unsanctioned crossings?              but addressing fundamental water resources
                                     The proposed map adds 1,400 kilometers             is part of that endeavor, especially as the
                                     to Israel’s borders, not only including the        environmental threats of climate change
                                     Jordan Valley borders to the east (with            continue to rise.
                                     Jordan) and the west (with Palestine), but
                                     also accounting for the Negev area offered
                                     to the Palestinians which will create a            3. WHAT SHOULD ISRAEL DO AND
                                     narrow Israeli corridor between Egypt and          NOT DO?
                                     Palestine.21 How will all these borders be
                                                                                        3.1. Advancing with Caution: No Unilateral
                                     overseen in a secure and comprehensive
                                                                                        Annexation
                                     manner? Furthermore, the constant
                                     friction created by settlements and the            Israel sees the “Deal of the Century” as
                                     corresponding military presence drains             a historic opportunity to actualize many
                                     Israeli security resources and reduces             political and security ambitions: erasing
                                     preparedness on other fronts.22                    pre-1967 borders as the core reference
                                                                                        point for future sovereign borders between
                                     2.4. Water                                         two nation states, ensuring the continued
                                                                                        presence of Jewish settlement communities
                                     Another serious omission in the deal is
                                                                                        throughout the West Bank, and securing
                                     reflected in the minimal discussion regarding
                                                                                        the Jordan Valley as a permanent, eastern
                                     Palestinian water rights. Access to water is a
                                                                                        border. With Trump’s offer on the table,
                                     critical issue to establishing a self-sufficient
                                                                                        these goals may be accomplished with
                                     and prosperous nation, especially in the
                                                                                        strong support from the White House
                                     arid Middle East region. Yet the Trump deal
                                                                                        and U.S. protection from international
                                     offers a meager paragraph regarding water-
                                                                                        reprisals. Nevertheless, the consequences of
                                     sharing agreements, promising “mutual
                                                                                        annexation will be swift and dangerous, and
                                     water rights” through “shared aquifers” and
                                                                                        Israeli leadership would be wise to advance
                                     “investing in desalination and other emerging
                                                                                        with extreme caution.
4
                                     technologies.”23 It is faulty to believe that
IS THERE A PRACTICAL ROADMAP FOR TRUMP’S “PEACE TO PROSPERITY” VISION?

     Annexation of Jewish settlements or the      Gantz and Yair Lapid separated, and Gantz
Jordan Valley would be a nearly irreversible      became Knesset speaker as a transitional
action that could lead to international           step toward establishing an emergency
demonization and delegitimization, the            unity government with Netanyahu’s Likud.32
collapse of the Israel-Jordan peace treaty,       At the point in time this piece is written,
and deterioration of security cooperation         Gantz will take over the premiership from
with the Palestinian Authority—or                 Netanyahu in September 2021, but the
dissolution of the PA altogether.27,28 It         chance of altering Israel’s course of action
would continue and accelerate the slide           seems to have faded.
toward a single state between the Jordan               Regardless of the governing coalition,
River and the Mediterranean Sea, deepen the       Israel should pursue practical and forward-
fractures of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,    thinking objectives. Israel must avoid
and escalate regional instability. In short,      irreversible actions and preserve the
unilateral Israeli annexation is detrimental to   conditions for a viable two-state solution.
the fundamental vision of Israel as a Jewish,     The map envisioned in the Trump plan
democratic, and moral state and undermines        creates long, problematic borders and
Palestinian self-determination in a viable,       creates friction by further entangling mixed
peaceful state.                                   populations.
     The European Union has also expressed             Instead, the way forward requires
strong opposition to the Peace to Prosperity      gradual disengagement of Israelis and
plan,29 while PA Prime Minister Mohammad          Palestinians within a framework that
Shtayyeh and President Abbas have called          promotes a reality of two nation-states
on the EU to recognize the State of Palestine     and regional prosperity. As part of such a
to counter Israeli annexation schemes.30          framework, Israel should initiate small-         Regardless of the
There is growing traction for European            scale, ground-up activities that rebuild         governing coalition,
recognition of Palestine despite Israeli          trust between parties. For example, the          Israel must avoid
criticism, and unilateral annexation could        Israel-Hamas truce33 enacted shortly before
spark action.31 Wall-to-wall European             the unveiling of the “Deal of the Century”
                                                                                                   irreversible actions and
recognition of a Palestinian state, outside       offered one instance of hope for easing          preserve the conditions
the framework of a negotiated agreement,          restrictions and creating goodwill.              for a viable two-state
would be a major boon to Palestinian                   Additionally, showing flexibility in        solution. The map
leverage. It would diminish the role of the       rejecting unnecessary and contentious
                                                                                                   envisioned in the Trump
U.S. as the principal “honest broker” and         components of the Trump deal will open
could drive subsequent UN recognition of          new avenues. The deal “contemplates the          plan creates long,
Palestine. Thus, Israel must critically assess    possibility”34 of transferring the territory     problematic borders
next steps to avoid major political and           inhabited by 10 Arab communities, known          and creates friction
diplomatic blows.                                 as the Arab Triangle, from Israel to a           by further entangling
                                                  future Palestinian state. Transferring Arab
3.2. Negotiation Opportunities and                populations has been rejected as racist and
                                                                                                   mixed populations.
Unofficial Contacts                               divisive,35 and both Gantz and Netanyahu
After numerous rounds of Israeli elections,       have disavowed the idea.36,37 The Arab
there remained an unlikely possibility that       Triangle Transfer is “subject to the agreement
a narrow coalition in the Israeli Knesset,        of both parties,”38 and Israeli negotiators
led by Benny Gantz of the Blue and White          should make clear they unequivocally
party, could offer a strategic opportunity        denounce this problematic proposal.
to navigate the “Deal of the Century” with             Most importantly, an essential way to
caution. Perhaps, such a coalition could          make progress is through off-the-record,
have nudged Israel’s stances on the issues        backchannel negotiations. There of course
of borders, security, and Jerusalem back          needs to be a primary, visible track of
toward the norms established in previous          negotiations as well, and Israel should
rounds of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.       work to bring the Palestinians back to the
That opportunity has passed, however,             negotiating table publicly. Nevertheless, the
after Blue and White coalition leaders Benny      substantive work of reconciling differences
                                                                                                                            5
BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20

                                     between the parties—at present, there are           any pathway to negotiations, the Trump
                                     huge gaps on practically all core issues—and        administration may license Israeli West Bank
                                     creating reasonable consensus within the            annexation and end the possibility for two
                                     respective societies must be accomplished           states altogether.41
                                     in secret negotiations. Even considering                 By Palestinian calculations, any
                                     unyielding Palestinian rejectionism, Israel         incremental improvements that could be
                                     must keep an open line of direct and indirect       made from negotiating under the auspices
                                     communication with the Palestinians                 of the Trump administration will ultimately
                                     in order to share information and test              strip away from the core of the Palestinian
                                     the waters, away from the public eye.               vision. Yet as the Palestinians have
                                     Such a step would benefit both sides and            continued to prioritize their ideal vision for
                                     begin to bridge the gap between conflict            statehood over incremental changes on the
                                     management and conflict resolution.                 ground, Israel has engineered a process of
                                                                                         gradual de facto annexation, which may
                                                                                         soon become de jure. At this moment, only
Formalizing the role                 4. THE PALESTINIAN TRACK                            Palestinian engagement can stave off the
of the Arab quartet—                                                                     direst consequences of the Trump plan.
                                     4.1. From 1,000 “No’s” to “Yes, But”
Egypt, Jordan, Saudi                                                                          However, Palestinian involvement
Arabia, and the UAE—                 Abbas and the Palestinians have                     could take many forms, three of which
                                     categorically rejected Trump’s proposal             are discussed herein. Instead of rejecting
can offer stability to               with “1,000 ‘no’s,” calling it the “slap of the     the Trump plan outright, the Palestinians
an eventual rocky                    century.”39 Abbas has refused to discuss the        could find benefits in saying “yes, but”—
negotiation process and              plan with Netanyahu or Trump, as it sharply         yes, we want a negotiation process for
incentivize both Israelis            diverges from negotiated understandings             two states, but we refuse to entertain the
                                     of pre-1967 borders, Jerusalem, and                 most outrageous proposals of this plan. Or,
and Palestinians.
                                     Palestinian sovereignty. In February 2020,          Palestinians could actively reject the Trump
                                     Abbas convened the Arab League to                   deal but publicly call for talks on how to
                                     unanimously reject the plan, increasing             advance a mutually beneficial peace process.
                                     pan-Arab pressure on moderate Arab states           They could endeavor to establish terms
                                     that supported the Trump plan as a basis for        of reference and parameters for further
                                     negotiations. However, Palestinian eulogies         negotiations while partnering those with
                                     proclaiming the deal “dead on arrival”40 will       clear redlines. Perhaps one step further, the
                                     not make it so: Trump’s plan will remain a          Palestinians could put forth a new, alternative
                                     point of reference in future talks, especially      plan of their own—one that goes beyond the
                                     if Trump wins re-election.                          limited confines of the Arab Peace Initiative
                                          For Palestinian leadership, responding in      and offers a measured way forward.
                                     any manner other than flat rejection could               Realistically, the Palestinians cannot
                                     irreparably harm their standing in the eyes of      and will not act until after November 2020,
                                     political allies and the Palestinian public. From   or perhaps January 2021. Still, Palestinian
                                     the Palestinian perspective, any engagement         political leadership must begin drafting
                                     with Trump or Netanyahu is tacit acceptance         ideas and publicly signaling a cohesive way
                                     of the absurd proposals outlined in the             forward that can counter momentum for the
                                     Trump plan and its complete detachment              Trump plan. Waiting for an ideal proposal on
                                     from historical context or international            behalf of the current U.S. administration is
                                     consensus. There is also the fear that Trump        not an option.
                                     will twist any Palestinian participation into a          If Trump is re-elected, Palestinian
                                     PR boon. Yet, continuing the path of eternal        leaders must propose a well-crafted
                                     rejectionism jeopardizes their national             response that can capture the support of
                                     objective to reaching Palestinian statehood.        Palestinians and moderate Israelis and avert
                                     The Palestinians severed communication              the current political risks of Palestinian
                                     with the White House in 2017, and as a result       leadership associating with Israel and the
                                     they were left out of the process entirely. If      U.S. A backchannel could help put together
                                     the Palestinian Authority continues to thwart       such a response more comfortably. It
6
IS THERE A PRACTICAL ROADMAP FOR TRUMP’S “PEACE TO PROSPERITY” VISION?

provides a way to devise a substantial           step in multilateral conflict resolution.
counterproposal while also staving off           Given numerous points of reference for
internal Palestinian criticism.                  negotiations—including the Camp David
                                                 Summit, the Annapolis talks, the Arab Peace
4.2. Backchannel Negotiations                    Initiative, and, of course, the Trump plan—
Even if Palestinians continue to demand that     Arab states can still encourage a negotiation
the Peace to Prosperity plan be scrapped         process as a basis for reaching many stated
in its entirety, this should not preclude the    objectives of the API.
possibility of quiet, backchannel discussions         According to one analysis, the Trump
with all parties concerned: Israel, the United   plan has caused a rift between Jordan and
States, the Europeans, and Arab states.          Saudi Arabia due to Saudi Arabia’s efforts
Such tracks are an opportunity for the           to enhance its influence in Jerusalem.42          If Trump is re-elected,
Palestinians to outline their positions on       Trump’s strong relationship with Saudi
                                                 Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may
                                                                                                   Palestinian leaders
what may be possible, without concerns of
                                                 increase Jordanian fears of a declining role in   must propose a well-
normalizing the Trump plan.
     Perhaps nothing in the immediate            the peace process and push Jordan to seek         crafted response
future offers hope of a peace agreement,         new avenues for reasserting its presence          that can capture the
                                                 in the political arena. Increased Jordanian-
but secret talks are necessary to build the
                                                 Saudi tension will only diminish Trump’s
                                                                                                   support of Palestinians
infrastructure for future negotiations—or
                                                 leverage in rallying Arab contributions.          and moderate Israelis
at least to preserve the conditions for
an eventual two-state-for-two-people                  Proactive participation of Arab states       and avert the current
outcome. The Palestinians can counter            can incentivize Israelis and Palestinians         political risks of
                                                 to contemplate the benefits of a viable
the Trump plan by releasing an alternate                                                           Palestinian leadership
roadmap, and a backchannel will strengthen       negotiation track. In turn, the international
                                                 community can facilitate Arab inclusion           associating with Israel
its effectiveness. They can utilize off-
the-record discussions to formulate a            with a package of incentives for all parties      and the U.S.
substantive peace plan that cannot be            involved. The Trump administration’s
rejected on the spot by Israel and the U.S.      economic plan discussed in Bahrain and
Since a secret communication channel             other regional economic plans can play a
would be deniable, Palestinian leadership        valuable role in the process, though they
can avoid political blowback from their          must be coordinated with a functional
constituency, contain Israeli expansion on       political track. An invested international
the ground, and offer a forceful rejoinder to    community, including the international
Trump’s hollow political exploitation.           quartet of the U.S., Russia, the EU, and the
                                                 UN, can help craft a package of incentives
                                                 that encourages good-faith action and
5. THE ARAB TRACK: A KEY                         thwarts bad actors.

5.1. Support and Incentives                      5.2. The Arab Quartet
Incorporating a track of Israeli negotiations    Formalizing the role of the Arab quartet—
with moderate Arab states is critical to the     Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United
peace process for a multitude of reasons.        Arab Emirates—can offer stability to an
Not only can Arab states provide important       eventual rocky negotiation process and
infrastructure and encouragement to Israeli-     incentivize both Israelis and Palestinians.43
Palestinian negotiations, but Israeli-Arab       With the support of Saudi Arabia and the
normalization is a key component of any          UAE, Egypt has attempted to facilitate the
roadmap to regional peace. While some Arab       Palestinian reconciliation process between
states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia have       Fatah and Hamas in an effort to neutralize
remained open to the possibility of utilizing    Hamas’s role as a persistent spoiler.44
the Trump plan as a basis for negotiations,      Meanwhile, the quartet can persuade Israel
the plan has been roundly criticized as          to consider the diplomatic and economic
insufficient. Encouraging Arab states            benefits of keeping the Arab Peace
to engage in the process is a necessary          Initiative in mind.                                                         7
BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20

                                          Even if the role of the Arab quartet        and problematic borders could lead to a
                                     remains informal, the EU has considered in       viral outbreak that overwhelms Israeli and
                                     the past involving Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and     Palestinian health systems, an outcome that
                                     Egypt more closely in high-level meetings.45     is increasingly likely without bilateral civil
                                     The Arab nations comprising the quartet          and security coordination. Now more than
                                     occupy a unique position to normalize            ever, Israeli and Palestinian leaders must
                                     difficult-to-swallow compromises and             demonstrate great caution and strong vision
                                     maintain flexibility on all sides. Of course,    to proceed carefully along the precarious
                                     strengthening the role of the quartet can        path that lies ahead.
                                     also counter Iranian efforts for regional
                                     hegemony and diminish Iran’s influence
                                     along the Persian crescent. The quartet          ENDNOTES
                                     is an invaluable resource to both the U.S.
                                                                                           1. Gilead Sher, “Let’s Call Trump’s Plan
                                     and Israel, and a greater international
                                                                                      What It Is: Oslo C,” Forward, January 29,
                                     effort should commence to involve them in
                                                                                      2020, https://forward.com/opinion/439134/
                                     brokering a deal.
                                                                                      lets-call-trumps-plan-what-it-is-oslo-c/.
                                                                                           2. Gilead Sher, “Comparing the ‘Deal of
                                     CONCLUSION                                       the Century’ with Previous Plans,” Institute
                                                                                      for National Security Studies, February 2,
                                     Though Trump’s Deal of the Century               2020, https://www.inss.org.il/publication/
                                     abandons the parameters of previous              trump-deal-comparative-review/.
                                     Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and lacks            3. “Arab League Rejects Trump’s
                                     coherent policy, the plan will continue to       Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan,” Deutsche
                                     sit on the table for years to come. In as        Welle, February 1, 2020. https://p.dw.com/
                                     much as this deal is meant to be a bilaterally   p/3X8HD.
                                     implemented plan for peace, it will fail              4. Omri Nahmias, “Saudi Arabia, Egypt,
                                     without significant Israeli concessions,         Qatar, UAE Welcome Trump Peace Plan,”
                                     complete re-sequencing, and resourceful          Jerusalem Post, January 29, 2020, https://
                                     Palestinian initiative. Netanyahu and            www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Saudi-Arabia-
                                     many on the Israeli Right see the plan           Egypt-Qatar-UAE-welcome-Trump-peace-
                                     as a golden opportunity to obtain long-          plan-615752.
                                     awaited territorial and security objectives           5. David May and Varsha Koduvayur,
                                     with the weight of U.S. support thwarting        “Trump's Peace Plan and the Gulf Arab
                                     international opposition. Yet, Israel must not   States’ Reaction,” The Hill, February 12,
                                     abide by foreign interference in decisions       2020, https://thehill.com/opinion/
                                     crucial to national security and domestic        international/482737-trumps-peace-plan-
                                     affairs, from allies or enemies alike.           and-the-gulf-arab-states-reaction.
                                          West Bank annexation threatens a                 6. Noa Landau, “Netanyahu: First
                                     dangerous Israeli decline into a disastrous      Phase of Annexation to be Brought Before
                                     reality of one state, which will either          Government on Sunday,” Haaretz, January
                                     comprise a non-Jewish majority or                29, 2020, https://www.haaretz.com/israel-
                                     will be non-democratic and lacking               news/.premium-netanyahu-first-phase-
                                     equality between its inhabitants; it would       of-annexation-to-be-brought-before-
                                     perpetually be on the verge of civil war.        government-on-sunday-1.8466207.
                                     Such a process will have pernicious and               7. Isabel Kershner, “Israel Puts Brakes on
                                     lasting consequences, leading Israel to an       West Bank Annexation Plan,” New York Times,
                                     unprecedented crisis of delegitimization,        February 2, 2020, https://www.nytimes.
                                     enhanced demonization, and isolation.            com/2020/02/02/world/middleeast/israel-
                                          These issues are even more concerning       west-bank-annexation.html.
                                     as the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic                      8. Ari Heistein and Eldad Shavit, “Israel
                                     threatens global and regional stability.         Must Prepare for a Biden Presidency,”
                                     Blurred boundaries, mixed populations,           Institute for National Security Studies,
8
IS THERE A PRACTICAL ROADMAP FOR TRUMP’S “PEACE TO PROSPERITY” VISION?

April 22, 2020, https://www.inss.org.il/                 24. Keith Johnson, “The Big Missing Piece
publication/joe-biden-israel-relationship/.         of the Kushner Plan: Water,” Foreign Policy,
     9. Aron Heller, “PM: Israel Has ‘Full Right’   February 4, 2020, https://foreignpolicy.
to Annex Strategic Jordan Valley,” Associated       com/2020/02/04/trump-kushner-peace-
Press, December 5, 2019, https://apnews.            plan-israelis-palestinians-water/.
com/b83397f9c9fa49b18073420c44e980f5.                    25. Erika Weinthal, “Water as a Basic
     10. Uzi Dayan, “Uzi Dayan: ‘Sovereignty        Human Right Within the Israeli-Palestinian
in the Jordan Valley is a Security Necessity,’”     Conflict,” American Diplomacy, October
Jerusalem Post, February 14, 2020, https://         2017, http://americandiplomacy.web.unc.
www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Uzi-            edu/2017/10/water-as-a-basic-human-
Dayan-Sovereignty-in-the-Jordan-Valley-             right-within-the-israeli-palestinian-conflict/.
is-a-security-necessity-617594.                          26. Adam Rasgon, Tovah Lazaroff, and
     11. Sher, “Let’s Call Trump’s Plan             Sharon Udasin, “Israel Gives Pal. Authority
What It Is.”                                        Limited Water Autonomy in West Bank,”
     12. Ilan Goldenberg, “A Security System        Jerusalem Post, January 17, 2017, https://
for the Two-State Solution,” Center for a New       www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/
American Security, May 31, 2016, https://           Israel-gives-Pal-Authority-limited-water-
www.cnas.org/publications/reports/                  autonomy-in-West-Bank-478672.
advancing-the-dialogue-a-security-                       27. Gilead Sher and Daniel Cohen, The
system-for-the-two-state-solution.                  Repercussions of Partial or Full West Bank
     13. White House, “Peace to Prosperity,”        Annexation by Israel, Rice University’s Baker
17 (Washington, D.C: White House), January          Institute for Public Policy, Houston, Texas,
2020, https://www.whitehouse.gov/                   November 2019, https://www.bakerinstitute.
wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Peace-to-                org/research/repercussions-partial-or-full-
Prosperity-0120.pdf.                                west-bank-annexation-israel/.
     14. Michael J. Koplow, “Building a Better           28. Commanders for Israel’s Security,
Trump Plan,” Israel Policy Forum, January           Ramifications of West Bank Annexation:
30, 2020, https://israelpolicyforum.                Security and Beyond (Commanders for
org/2020/01/30/building-a-better-trump-             Israel’s Security and Israel Policy Forum,
plan/.                                              2018), https://israelpolicyforum.org/
     15. Sher, “Comparing the ‘Deal of the          annexation/.
Century.’”                                               29. Merrit Kennedy, “EU Takes a Dim
     16. Associated Press, “Palestinian             View of Trump’s Controversial Mideast Peace
President Mahmoud Abbas Threatens to Cut            Plan,” NPR, February 4, 2020, https://
Security Ties Over U.S. Mideast Plan,” NBC,         www.npr.org/2020/02/04/802635401/
February 1, 2020, https://www.nbcnews.              eu-takes-a-dim-view-of-trumps-
com/news/world/palestinian-president-               controversial-mideast-peace-plan.
mahmoud-abbas-threatens-cut-security-                    30. Adam Rasgon, “PA Premier Calls on
ties-over-u-n1128201.                               Europe to Recognize Palestine to ‘Counter’
     17. “Peace to Prosperity,” Appendix 2C.        Annexation Plan,” Times of Israel, February
     18. Sher, “Comparing the ‘Deal of the          20, 2020, https://www.timesofisrael.com/
Century.’”                                          pa-premier-calls-on-eu-to-recognize-
     19. “Peace to Prosperity,” Appendix 2C.        palestine-to-counter-possible-annexation/.
     20. Gideon Biger and Gilead Sher, “What             31. Noa Landau, “In Wake of Trump Peace
the Trump Peace Plan Doesn’t Tell Us,” Ynet,        Plan, EU Countries Pushing for Recognition
February 15, 2020, https://www.ynetnews.            of State of Palestine,” Haaretz, February 16,
com/article/Hk3Fmj11X8.                             2020, https://www.haaretz.com/israel-
     21. Ibid.                                      news/.premium-in-wake-of-trump-plan-
     22. “Security First Plan.” S. Daniel           eu-countries-pushing-for-recognition-of-
Abraham Center for Peace, https://                  state-of-palestine-1.8536907.
centerpeace.org/explore/security-first-by-               32. Jonathan Lis, “Gantz Voted in as
commanders-for-israels-security/.                   Knesset Speaker, Paving Way for ‘Emergency’
     23. “Peace to Prosperity,” 29-30.              Unity Government With Netanyahu,” Haaretz,
                                                                                                                               9
BAKER INSTITUTE REPORT // 05.11.20

                                             March 26, 2020, https://www.haaretz.                   42. Adnan Abu Amer, “The U.S.
                                             com/israel-news/.premium-kahol-lavan-             Deal Polarises Palestine-Jordan-Saudi
                                             on-verge-of-split-as-gantz-submits-his-           Relations,” Middle East Monitor, February
                                             name-for-knesset-speaker-1.8713168.               11, 2020, https://www.middleeastmonitor.
                                                  33. Daniel Estrin, “‘Like A Prisoner         com/20200211-the-us-deal-polarises-
                                             Being Let Free’: Israel-Hamas Truce               palestine-jordan-saudi-relations/.
                                             Lends Hope To Gaza’s Jobless,” NPR,                    43. “26: Formalize the Role of the Arab
                                             January 23, 2020, https://www.npr.                Quartet,” 50 Before the Deal, Israel Policy
                                             org/2020/01/23/798618713/like-a-                  Forum, http://50beforethedeal.com/steps/
                                             prisoner-being-let-free-israel-hamas-             formalize-the-role-of-the-arab-quartet.
                                             truce-lends-hope-to-gaza-s-jobless.                    44. Abdel Monem Said Aly, Shai Feldman,
                                                  34. “Peace to Prosperity,” 13.               and Nawaf Obaid, “Art of the Peace Deal:
                                                  35. Lawahez Jabari and Saphora Smith,        What Can Be Done in Israel and Palestine?”
                                             “Facing a Palestinian State, Arab Israelis Find   National Interest, October 29, 2017, https://
                                             Trump’s Mideast Plan Unworkable,” NBC,            nationalinterest.org/feature/art-the-
                                             February 22, 2020, https://www.nbcnews.           peace-deal-what-can-be-done-israel-
                                             com/news/world/facing-palestinian-state-          palestine-22951.
                                             arab-israelis-find-trump-s-mideast-                    45. Luke Baker and Adrian Croft, “EU
                                             plan-n1140331.                                    Seeks to Bolster Middle East Peace Quartet
                                                  36. Raoul Wootliff, “Gantz: Joint List       via Arab Involvement,” Reuters, March
                                             Won’t Be Part of My Coalition, Which              2, 2015, https://www.reuters.com/
                                             Will Implement Trump Plan,” Times of              article/us-israel-palestinians-quartet-
                                             Israel, February 11, 2020, https://www.           idUSKBN0LY1PA20150302.
                                             timesofisrael.com/gantz-joint-list-wont-
                                             be-part-of-my-coalition-which-will-
                                             implement-trump-plan/.                            ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
See more Baker Institute Reports at:              37. TOI Staff, “Netanyahu Disavows
                                                                                               The authors are deeply grateful to Professor
www.bakerinstitute.org/baker-reports         Trump Plan Idea to Redraw Border Around
                                                                                               Robert H. Mnookin for his invaluable support
                                             Arab Israeli Towns,” Times of Israel, February
This publication was written by a                                                              and insightful contribution to this article.
                                             20, 2020, https://www.timesofisrael.com/
researcher (or researchers) who
participated in a Baker Institute project.   netanyahu-disavows-trump-plan-idea-
                                             to-redraw-border-around-arab-israeli-
Wherever feasible, this research is                                                            AUTHORS
reviewed by outside experts before it is     towns/.
released. However, the views expressed            38. “Peace to Prosperity,” 13.               Gilead Sher is the Isaac and Mildred
herein are those of the individual
                                                  39. Khaled Abu Toameh, “Abbas: 1,000         Brochstein Fellow in Middle East Peace and
author(s), and do not necessarily
represent the views of Rice University’s
                                             ‘No’s to the Trump Plan,” Jerusalem Post,         Security in Honor of Yitzhak Rabin at the
Baker Institute for Public Policy.           January 28, 2020, https://www.jpost.com/          Baker Institute. He is also a senior researcher
                                             Israel-News/Peace-group-Joint-List-slam-          at the Tel Aviv Institute for National Security
© 2020 Rice University’s Baker               Deal-of-the-Century-615711.                       Studies, where he heads the Center for
Institute for Public Policy                       40. “Trump Unveils His Middle East           Applied Negotiations.
                                             Plan Amid Palestinian Rejections,” Al
This material may be quoted or
reproduced without prior permission,         Jazeera, January 28, 2020, https://               Daniel Cohen is a research intern in the
provided appropriate credit is given to      www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/                   Baker Institute Center for the Middle East.
the authors and Rice University’s Baker      trump-unveils-israeli-plan-palestinian-           He is an undergraduate at Rice University
Institute for Public Policy.                 rejections-200128151735083.html.                  studying linguistics and Jewish studies, with
                                                  41. Aaron Reich, “Kushner: U.S. to           a concentration in Arabic and Islamic texts.
Cite as:
Sher, Gilead, and Daniel Cohen. 2020.
                                             Approve Annexation If Palestinians Don't
Is There a Practical Roadmap for             Negotiate,” Jerusalem Post, March 8,
Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” Vision?.       2020, https://www.jpost.com/Middle-
Baker Institute Report no. 05.11.20.         East/Kushner-US-to-approve-Israeli-
Rice University’s Baker Institute for        annexation-if-Palestinians-dont-
Public Policy, Houston, Texas.
                                             negotiate-620135.

10
You can also read