SAF - Potentials and perspectives - Place and crop your image here and send to back - Fuels Of The Future
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SAF -
Potentials and Place and crop your
image here and send to back
perspectives
Henrik Erämetsä | Head of Aviation Regulation |
21.01.2021 | Fuels of the Future 2021 Berlin
@HenrikErametsa
Neste’s transformation From a local oil refiner towards a global leader in renewable and circular solutions, with limitless curiosity
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Our climate commitments
HANDPRINT FOOTPRINT
Neste to reduce customers’ greenhouse Neste to reach carbon neutral production* by 2035
gas emissions with its renewable and
circular solutions by at least 20 million tons
CO2e annually by 2030
* Scope 1 & 2
3.12.2020 4
SAF Potential
SAF technical Help to stay Production Sustainable
feasibility within the capacity feedstocks
proven Carbon Budget existing and available
ramping up
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SAF: Technical feasibility is proven
A drop-in solution to the existing fuel supply chain and infrastructure
Waste & Renewables
residue refinery
Blending Airport Refueller/
terminal storage Hydrant
Crude oil Fossil refinery
3.12.2020 6
Available Reduction of Non-
Drop-in solution CO2 reduction CO2 effects
• compatible with existing
Place and crop your jet engines In neat form, Neste MY In addition, SAF provides
Sustainable Aviation Fuel significant non-CO2
image here • Renewable waste and
reduces GHG emissions emission effects through
residue as raw material
up to 80% compared reduced particulate
• Commercially available to fossil fuels providing an emissions¹
and in use immediate solution for
• Neste’s current capacity reducing the direct carbon
is 100,000 tons. With emissions of flying.
possible additional
investment to grow to 1.5
¹EASA Final Report: Updated analysis of the non-CO2 climate
million tons by 2023 impacts of aviation and potential policy measures pursuant to
the EU Emissions Trading System Directive Article 30(4),
November 2020
7
SAF helps to stay within
the Carbon Budget
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Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel production capacity
Gasification/FT SAF Alcohol-to-jet SAF Additional potential Announced HEFA
for HEFA SAF SAF production
(based on 46% yield 8.20
assumption) 0.30 Demand certainty for SAF can drive
7.20 0.30 new investments for additional
0.20 capacity in addition to pipeline in
6.20 place
0.10
3.40
4.90
0.10 3.80
4.00
3.40 4.50
4.00
3.70 4.20 Global SAF production capacity
outlook, Mt
3.20 3.20 Source: World Economic Forum & McKinsey &
Company, Clean Skies for Tomorrow Insight
1.60 report, November 2020
0.20 0.30 0.80
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Sufficient feedstock potential globally for almost 500 Mton of
SAF by 2030, sufficient for substituting fossil jet fuel in aviation
Practical feedstock availability in 2030, Mt/year
Waste & residue lipids 400
Oil trees on degraded land 850
Oil-cover crops 700
Cellulosic cover crops 11000
Agricultural residues 6600 Up to 120% of
Estimated SAF
estimated global
potential 490 Mt
Forestry residues 5800 jet fuel demand
in total in 2030
of 410 Mt in
Wood-processing waste 3200 2030
Municipal solid waste 9600
Source: World Economic Forum & McKinsey & Company, Clean Skies for Tomorrow Insight report, November 2020
Wide feedstock acceptance is critical for ensuring that
ambitious SAF scale up targets are achievable
Lipids in REDII Annex IX, Part A
(POME, CTO)
Global wastes and residues (suitable for 2.70
biofuel production) available in 2030, Mt
10.30 Lipids in REDII Annex IX, Part B
(AF Cat 1 & 2, UCO)
Other industrial wastes and residues 29.20
(AF Cat 3, Acid oils, etc.)
Note: Volumes represent the upper end
estimation of the waste & residue growth.
Source: Neste estimatesWaste & residue lipid potential is spread globally,
Europe represents about 7-10 Mt of global potential of ~35-40 Mt
7-10
9-12 Mt/a
Mt/a
12-15
Mt/a
3-5
Mt/a
Source: Neste estimates3.12.2020 12
SAF Perspectives Place and crop your
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Regulation needed 3-Stage-Rocket for Sustainability Price affordable for
rapid build-up of framework existing people and freight
• Hard to decarbonise
capacity
• RED II providing a • Additional ticket price
• We need to start now
• HEFA from W&R oils robust framework reasonable
• Global competition - and fats
• Food & Feed Crops not
national and regional
• G+FT and ATJ used by aviation
leadership and
forerunners needed • Power-to-Liquids • CORSIA Sustainability
Framework now
complete13
SAF will remain more expensive than fossil Jet Fuel.
Prices will come down as technologies mature
Development of production costs of SAF and comparison to fossil Jet Fuel
HEFA G/FT AtJ PTL Fossiles Jet Fuel
Source: World Economic Forum & McKinsey & Company, Clean Skies for Tomorrow Insight report, November 202014
SAF technologies will mature and ramp up in 3 stages
Development of European SAF capacity in Mt
5% of EU 10% of EU
consumption consumption
PTL Stage 3
AtJ
Stage 2
G/FT
HEFA Stage 1
Source: World Economic Forum & McKinsey & Company, Clean Skies for Tomorrow Insight report, November 202015
SAF technologies will mature and ramp up in 3 stages
FTI has added Stage 4 for
electric and H2 aircraft
3
2
1
Source: FTI Analysis3.12.2020 16
Ticket price increase is
reasonable
From the perspective of the consumer, the
influence on ticket prices is reasonable.
Place and crop your Examples for 5%, 14% or 30% SAF blending,
respectively:
image here
• For Helsinki - Singapore 12 €, 33 € or 71 €
• For Helsinki - Munich 3 €, 9 € or 20 €
• For Helsinki - Stockholm 1 €, 4 € or 8 €
Source: AFRY Analysis for the
Finnish Government 14.12.20203.12.2020 17
CONCLUSIONS
Urgency to act. For the climate,
SAF will remain more biofuels are most
expensive than fossil effective when used in
fuel, making aviation due to the Place and crop your
regulatory measures reduction of also the image here and send to back
necessary Non-CO2 effects
HEFA based SAF is Ticket price increase
commercially is reasonable.
available. Other Aviation will continue
technologies, to contribute to
especially PtL will connectivity and
need support to productivity
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