Schroders Equity Lens - Strategic Research Unit Q1 2022
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Schroders Equity Lens Strategic Research Unit Q1 2022 Marketing material for professional investors or advisers only.
Table of contents
01 Charts of the month
02 Regional performance
03 Fundamentals
04 Sectors & Styles
05 Index composition
2
Summary (1 of 2) – Global equities ended the year on a high note, rallying by 6.8% in Q4, as a strong earnings season coupled with a relatively stable interest rate environment supported performance. – However, the spread of the Omicron variant, rising inflation and waning monetary stimulus weighed down on valuations. – The best performing region was the US (+10.1%). Europe (+5.8%) and UK (+5.6%) also performed reasonably well (all in local currency terms). In contrast, slowing Chinese credit growth hit EM (-0.4%) and Japanese (-3.9%) returns. – In terms of sectors, performance was relatively mixed across cyclicals and defensives. IT was the highest returning sector (+12.7%), but defensives also did reasonably well, including utilities (+10.4%) and real estate (+9.1%). – Communication services (-1.5%) and energy (+3.3%) were the lowest returning sectors. 3
Summary (2 of 2) – Global earnings revision momentum decelerated sharply in Q4. It remains positive in all major equity markets, except EM. – According to our composite valuation indicator, UK and Japanese equities are now trading close to their 10-year historical average. – Meanwhile, EM equities have derated significantly since their peak in January 2021 and are only slightly expensive. In contrast, US and Europe continue to look expensive on most valuation metrics. – In terms of global sectors, energy, financials and materials offer the best relative value. IT, communication services and consumer discretionary look the most expensive. 4
Global equities Charts of the month
What sectors, regions and styles outperformed in 2021?
Energy, IT, financials and US equities were major winners
2021 total return $, %
50
45
40 37.5
35
30 27.7 27.0
25.1
23.6
25
20.4
18.5 18.0 17.3
20 16.6 16.5 16.5 15.3
15 11.7 11.0 10.8
9.2
10
5 2.0
0
-5 -2.2
-10
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021.
6Running out of steam?
Markets bounded back in December despite Omicron variant
Rolling 3-month return of global equities, %
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Dec 21
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021.
7Nobody likes a cliff hanger like this
China’s credit crunch is slowly feeding through to developed market equities
YoY % chg
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 2021 2021
China credit growth, Adv 6m MSCI World MSCI EM
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021. Notes: credit growth is proxied using China’s total social financing, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy.
8Composite valuation across five valuation metrics
UK, Japan and EM equities have cheapened, but US and Europe less so
Average Z-score across five valuation metrics
3.5
3.0
Expensive
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5 Cheap
-2.0
-2.5
Aug 16 Feb 17 Aug 17 Feb 18 Aug 18 Feb 19 Aug 19 Feb 20 Aug 20 Feb 21 Aug 21
US UK Europe ex UK Japan EM
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021. Z-score measures the number of standard deviations above or below the average. Our assessment of expensive/cheap is relative
to a 10-year rolling average of each market across five valuation metrics: cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings, forward price-to-earnings, trailing price-to-earnings, price-to-book and dividend yield. Unlike slide
24 (which uses a 15-year median), this chart uses a 10-year average to increase the number of data points and give a better indication of the variability of valuations over time.
9Regional market composition
Eurozone, Japan and EM are more cyclical, while UK is more defensive
Sector Group Index Weight Sector Group Index Weight vs ACWI
Sector Beta Cyclical/defensive US UK EMU Japan EM ACWI US UK EMU Japan EM
IT 1.1 Cyclical 30% 1% 15% 16% 23% 24% 6% -22% -9% -8% -1%
Cons disc 1.1 Cyclical 13% 6% 17% 19% 14% 12% 0% -6% 5% 7% 1%
Financials 1.2 Cyclical 11% 17% 15% 9% 19% 14% -3% 4% 1% -5% 6%
Industrials 1.1 Cyclical 8% 12% 16% 22% 5% 10% -2% 2% 6% 13% -5%
Energy 1.4 Cyclical 3% 10% 4% 1% 6% 3% -1% 7% 0% -3% 2%
Materials 1.1 Cyclical 3% 11% 7% 5% 9% 5% -2% 7% 2% 0% 4%
Real estate 0.8 Defensive 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 3% 0% -1% -1% 1% -1%
Comm Servs 0.9 Defensive 10% 4% 4% 8% 11% 9% 2% -4% -4% -1% 2%
Cons stap 0.6 Defensive 6% 20% 8% 7% 6% 7% -1% 13% 1% 0% -1%
Utilities 0.6 Defensive 2% 4% 6% 1% 2% 3% 0% 1% 4% -2% 0%
Health care 0.7 Defensive 13% 12% 7% 10% 4% 12% 1% 1% -4% -2% -7%
Total Cyclical Weight vs ACWI -2% -9% 5% 5% 7%
Total Defensive Weight vs ACWI 2% 9% -5% -5% -7%
Source: Refinitiv Datastream and Schroders. Data as at 31 December 2021. Notes: market beta is a measure of how sensitive sector returns are to changes in the overall market index. Cyclical sectors are
defined as having a market beta greater than 1, (i.e. they outperform when the index rises), whereas defensive sectors have a beta less than 1 (i.e. they underperform when the index rises). Our calculation is
based on the last five years of monthly returns vs the MSCI ACWI Index.
10Style market composition
Momentum is more cyclical, while quality is more defensive
Sector Group Index Weight Sector Group Index Weight vs Comparator
Sector Beta vs ACWI Cyclical/defensive Value Growth Quality Momentum Min Vol* US small caps* Value Growth Quality Momentum Min Vol* US small caps*
IT 1.1 Cyclical 10% 36% 42% 30% 19% 18% -13% 13% 18% 7% -4% -12%
Cons disc 1.1 Cyclical 9% 17% 6% 12% 8% 12% -4% 5% -6% 0% -4% 0%
Financials 1.2 Cyclical 22% 5% 4% 21% 9% 15% 9% -9% -9% 7% -4% 4%
Industrials 1.1 Cyclical 11% 8% 8% 7% 7% 15% 1% -1% -2% -2% -3% 7%
Energy 1.4 Cyclical 6% 1% 0% 6% 0% 4% 2% -2% -3% 2% -3% 1%
Materials 1.1 Cyclical 6% 4% 4% 3% 5% 6% 2% -1% -1% -1% 1% 3%
Real estate 0.8 Defensive 4% 1% 0% 1% 2% 8% 2% -2% -2% -2% -1% 6%
Comm Servs 0.9 Defensive 4% 12% 12% 6% 13% 4% -4% 4% 4% -2% 5% -7%
Cons stap 0.6 Defensive 8% 5% 8% 3% 12% 3% 2% -1% 1% -4% 5% -3%
Utilities 0.6 Defensive 5% 0% 0% 1% 8% 4% 2% -2% -3% -2% 5% 1%
Health care 0.7 Defensive 13% 10% 15% 10% 16% 13% 2% -1% 3% -2% 3% 0%
Total Cyclical Weight vs ACWI -3% 3% -3% 12% -18% 3%
Total Defensive Weight (ex IT) vs ACWI 3% -3% 3% -12% 18% -3%
Source: Refinitiv Datastream and Schroders. Data as at 31 December 2021. Notes: market beta is a measure of how sensitive sector returns are to changes in the overall market index. Cyclical sectors are
defined as having a market beta greater than 1, (i.e. they outperform when the index rises), whereas defensive sectors have a beta less than 1 (i.e. they underperform when the index rises). Our calculation is
based on the last five years of monthly returns vs the MSCI ACWI Index. Min Vol index is based on and relative to MSCI World, US small caps are relative to MSCI USA. All other indices are based on MSCI ACWI
universe.
11Global equities Regional performance
Global equities: performance leadership table
Another winning year for US equities…
Total $ return, %
Best
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
EM US Europe US US Japan US EM US US US US
19.2% 2.0% 22.5% 32.6% 13.4% 9.9% 11.6% 37.8% -4.5% 30.6% 21.4% 27.0%
Japan UK EM Europe EM US EM Europe Japan Europe EM UK
15.6% -2.5% 18.6% 28.7% -1.8% 1.3% 11.6% 27.8% -12.6% 25.9% 18.7% 18.5%
US Japan US Japan Japan Europe Japan Japan UK UK Japan Europe
15.4% -14.2% 16.1% 27.3% -3.7% 0.1% 2.7% 24.4% -14.1% 21.1% 14.9% 16.5%
UK Europe UK UK UK UK Europe UK EM Japan Europe Japan
8.8% -14.5% 15.3% 20.7% -5.4% -7.5% 0.3% 22.4% -14.2% 20.1% 11.6% 2.0%
Europe EM Japan EM Europe EM UK US Europe EM UK EM
2.4% -18.2% 8.4% -2.3% -5.8% -14.6% 0.0% 21.9% -14.4% 18.9% -10.4% -2.2%
Worst
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021 in US dollars. Europe = Europe ex UK.
13Profits rather than valuations driving equity returns
Market performance may continue to moderate as valuations contract further
MSCI ACWI 12m return, %
220%
Peak in YoY %
200% chg in P/E ratio
180%
160%
140%
120%
100% EPS growth
turns positive
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EPS growth P/E chg Income return FX return Total return
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021.
14Drivers of global equity returns
2021 market rally entirely down to earnings growth
YTD return by source, %
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
US UK Europe ex UK Japan EM
Income EPS growth P/E change FX return Total Return
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021 in US dollars.
15Headline EM performance can be misleading
Numerous countries outperformed MSCI EM Index in 2021
YTD total return $, %
80
60
Outperformed EM Index
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Local return FX return Total Return
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, IBES, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021.
16Stronger US dollar hurting EM equities
EM vs. DM performance tends to be inversely correlated with the US dollar
YoY total return, %
20 -20
15 -15
10 -10
5
-5
0
0
-5
5
-10
10
-15
-20 15
-25 20
-30 25
Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 20 Dec 20 Jun 21 Dec 21
EM vs DM equities US dollar index (inverted RHS)
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021 in US dollars. Notes: EM = MSCI EM index $ and DM = MSCI World Index $.
17Economic surprises
Weakening global equity returns in line with fewer positive economic surprises
120 60
100
80 40
60
40 20
20
0 0
-20
-40 -20
-60
-80 -40
-100
-120 -60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Citi Economic Surprise Index Global equities 6m % chg (RHS)
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021.
18Equity valuations vs liquidity conditions
S&P 500 valuations have fallen alongside declining money supply growth
YoY % change
100 30
80 25
60 20
40 15
20 10
0 5
-20 0
-40 -5
-60 -10
1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
S&P 500 P/E, 6ma M2 money supply growth, adv 6m (RHS)
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021.
19Global equities Fundamentals
Corporate earnings
Revisions to 2022 earnings expectations have stalled
Global equities EPS forecast
45 2023e (+8.8%)
2022e (+6.9%)
40
2021e (+52.7%)
35
30
2020 (-15.5%)
25
20
Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18 Jun 19 Dec 19 Jun 20 Dec 20 Jun 21
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, IBES, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021. Notes: % change is the expected growth in EPS for that calendar year
21Corporate earnings
Earnings growth expected to grow much slower in 2022
YoY exp. EPS growth, %
100
83
80
60 54 56
51
37
40
20 10 10 10
7 7 7 7 7
3 3
0
-20 -14
-19
-23
-40 -33
-37
-60
2020 2021e 2022e 2023e
US UK Europe ex UK Japan EM
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: IBES, Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021. Notes: Japan EPS for 2021/2022 is 4 quarter sum until 31 March of next calendar year, e.g. 2022 = 31/03/2022 – 31/03/2023.
22Earnings sentiment
Revision momentum has sharply decelerated across all regions
13-week earnings revisions ratio %, (upgrades – downgrades) / total revisions
60
40
Earnings upgrades > downgrades
20
0
-20
-40 Earnings upgrades < downgrades
-60
US UK Europe ex UK Japan EM
-80
Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20 Jan 21 Jul 21
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, IBES, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021. Notes; 13w earnings revisions = sum of 13 week positive minus negative 12m forward EPS revisions / total revisions.
23Certain markets are looking less expensive
EM and Japanese equities seem more reasonably valued now vs their history
EOM valuation vs 15-year median (% above or below)
Equity market CAPE Forward P/E Trailing P/E P/B Dividend yield
38 22 26 5.0 1.3
US
(61%) (42%) (35%) (79%) (58%)
15 12 16 1.9 3.6
UK
(13%) (-2%) (10%) (4%) (5%)
24 17 19 2.3 2.1
Europe ex. UK
(48%) (21%) (11%) (31%) (51%)
21 14 16 1.5 2.1
Japan
(-1%) (2%) (-1%) (13%) (-7%)
15 12 14 1.9 2.4
EM
(0%) (7%) (0%) (13%) (9%)
Key: 25%
Cheap Neutral Expensive
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021. Figures are shown on a rounded basis. Assessment of cheap/expensive is relative to 15-year median.
24Composite valuation across five valuation metrics
UK, Japan and EM equities have cheapened, but US and Europe less so
Average Z-score across five valuation metrics
3.5
3.0
Expensive
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5 Cheap
-2.0
-2.5
Aug 16 Feb 17 Aug 17 Feb 18 Aug 18 Feb 19 Aug 19 Feb 20 Aug 20 Feb 21 Aug 21
US UK Europe ex UK Japan EM
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021. Z-score measures the number of standard deviations above or below the average. Our assessment of expensive/cheap is relative
to a 10-year rolling average of each market across five valuation metrics: cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings, forward price-to-earnings, trailing price-to-earnings, price-to-book and dividend yield. Unlike slide
24 (which uses a 15-year median), this chart uses a 10-year average to increase the number of data points and give a better indication of the variability of valuations over time.
25Relative valuations: US vs Rest of World
US CAPE stretched versus ROW
Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
MSCI USA MSCI AC World ex US
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021.
26Dividend vs. bond yields by region
Stocks vastly trump corporate bonds for income in UK, Europe and Japan
Forward 12-month equity dividend vs. bond yield, %
4.5
4.0 4.0
4.0
3.5
3.0
3.0 2.7
2.5 2.4 2.3
2.1
2.0
1.5 1.3
1.0
0.6
0.5 0.4
0.0
US UK Europe ex UK Japan EM
Equities IG corporate bonds
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon.
Source: IBES, Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI, ICE and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021. Corporate bond yield = unhedged local currency yield, except for EM which is in USD.
27Global equities Sectors & Styles
Global sector performance
Defensive sectors outperformed cyclicals in December
Global $ sector return, %
IT 3.0 27.7
Health care 6.8 18.0
Cons Stap 8.1 11.7
Utilities 8.2 11.0
Comm Svs 1.5 10.8
Materials 6.4 15.3
Industrials 5.4 16.6
5.8
Financials 4.1 25.1
Energy 4.0 37.5
Real estate 7.1 23.6
Cons Disc -0.1 9.2
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1-month return YTD
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021 in US dollars. Notes:
29No global equity sector is a screaming buy
But energy, financials and materials offer some relative value
EOM valuation vs 15-year median (% above or below)
Sector CAPE Forward P/E Trailing P/E P/B Dividend yield
Energy 3% -24% 9% -4% -27%
Financials 19% 3% -17% 10% 12%
Materials 31% -9% -28% 23% -23%
Real estate 5% 18% 42% 25% 26%
Cons stap 5% 18% 15% 26% 13%
Utilities 28% 21% 12% 26% 17%
Industrials 31% 24% 43% 39% 44%
Health care 29% 17% 15% 35% 29%
Comm Svcs 43% 40% 40% 65% 263%
Cons disc 33% 53% 54% 67% 120%
IT 83% 68% 69% 149% 69%
Key: 25%
Cheap Neutral Expensive
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021. Based on MSCI ACWI sectors ranked from cheapest to most expensive based on Z-score of five valuation metrics.
30US Small vs Large caps
Rotation has stalled as business activity decelerates
40 25
20
30
15
20
10
10 5
0 0
-5
-10
-10
-20
-15
-30 -20
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US small vs large caps, YoY return % ISM manufacturing index abs YoY chg (RHS)
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021.
31US Value vs Growth rotation
6m relative returns tend to lead 12m returns
US Value minus Growth return %
40 1
30 1
20 1
1
10
1
0
1
-10
0
-20
0
-30 0
-40 0
-50 0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021
US recession 6-month momentum (4m avg) 12-momentum (4m avg)
Momentum indicator suggests value underperformance poised to continue
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data as at 31 December 2021. Notes: momentum is % total return over period specified.
32US Value vs Growth rotation
Value performance has recently coincided with changes in long-term rates
0.95 2.6
0.93 2.5
0.91 2.4
0.89 2.3
0.87 2.2
0.85 2.1
0.83 2
0.81 1.9
0.79 1.8
0.77 1.7
0.75 1.6
Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Dec 21
US Value / Growth US 30-year Treasury yield % (RHS)
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv, MSCI and Schroders. Data as at 31 December 2021.
33Global Value vs Growth
Opportunity for mean-reversion still significant given wide valuation dispersion
Relative valuations still remain high by historical standards Returns no longer tracking near-term fundamentals
Growth vs Value (global) Growth / Value (global), rebased to 100
Relative P/E
50 18 200
16
40
180
14
30
12 160
20 10
140
10 8
6 120
0
4
-10 100
2
-20 0 80
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
yoy % total return, Growth minus Value Forward 12m P/E, Growth minus Value (RHS) Growth/value forward 12M EPS Growth/value total return
Forecasts included are not guaranteed and should not be relied upon. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated.
Source: Datastream Refinitiv and Schroders. Data to 31 December 2021 in US dollars. Based on MSCI ACWI World.
34Global equities Index composition
Regional market composition
Eurozone, Japan and EM are more cyclical, while UK is more defensive
Sector Group Index Weight Sector Group Index Weight vs ACWI
Sector Beta Cyclical/defensive US UK EMU Japan EM ACWI US UK EMU Japan EM
IT 1.1 Cyclical 30% 1% 15% 16% 23% 24% 6% -22% -9% -8% -1%
Cons disc 1.1 Cyclical 13% 6% 17% 19% 14% 12% 0% -6% 5% 7% 1%
Financials 1.2 Cyclical 11% 17% 15% 9% 19% 14% -3% 4% 1% -5% 6%
Industrials 1.1 Cyclical 8% 12% 16% 22% 5% 10% -2% 2% 6% 13% -5%
Energy 1.4 Cyclical 3% 10% 4% 1% 6% 3% -1% 7% 0% -3% 2%
Materials 1.1 Cyclical 3% 11% 7% 5% 9% 5% -2% 7% 2% 0% 4%
Real estate 0.8 Defensive 3% 1% 1% 3% 2% 3% 0% -1% -1% 1% -1%
Comm Servs 0.9 Defensive 10% 4% 4% 8% 11% 9% 2% -4% -4% -1% 2%
Cons stap 0.6 Defensive 6% 20% 8% 7% 6% 7% -1% 13% 1% 0% -1%
Utilities 0.6 Defensive 2% 4% 6% 1% 2% 3% 0% 1% 4% -2% 0%
Health care 0.7 Defensive 13% 12% 7% 10% 4% 12% 1% 1% -4% -2% -7%
Total Cyclical Weight vs ACWI -2% -9% 5% 5% 7%
Total Defensive Weight vs ACWI 2% 9% -5% -5% -7%
Source: Refinitiv Datastream and Schroders. Data as at 31 December 2021. Notes: market beta is a measure of how sensitive sector returns are to changes in the overall market index. Cyclical sectors are
defined as having a market beta greater than 1, (i.e. they outperform when the index rises), whereas defensive sectors have a beta less than 1 (i.e. they underperform when the index rises). Our calculation is
based on the last five years of monthly returns vs the MSCI ACWI Index.
36Style market composition
Momentum is overweight cyclicals, while quality is overweight defensives
Sector Group Index Weight Sector Group Index Weight vs Comparator
Sector Beta vs ACWI Cyclical/defensive Value Growth Quality Momentum Min Vol* US small caps* Value Growth Quality Momentum Min Vol* US small caps*
IT 1.1 Cyclical 10% 36% 42% 30% 19% 18% -13% 13% 18% 7% -4% -12%
Cons disc 1.1 Cyclical 9% 17% 6% 12% 8% 12% -4% 5% -6% 0% -4% 0%
Financials 1.2 Cyclical 22% 5% 4% 21% 9% 15% 9% -9% -9% 7% -4% 4%
Industrials 1.1 Cyclical 11% 8% 8% 7% 7% 15% 1% -1% -2% -2% -3% 7%
Energy 1.4 Cyclical 6% 1% 0% 6% 0% 4% 2% -2% -3% 2% -3% 1%
Materials 1.1 Cyclical 6% 4% 4% 3% 5% 6% 2% -1% -1% -1% 1% 3%
Real estate 0.8 Defensive 4% 1% 0% 1% 2% 8% 2% -2% -2% -2% -1% 6%
Comm Servs 0.9 Defensive 4% 12% 12% 6% 13% 4% -4% 4% 4% -2% 5% -7%
Cons stap 0.6 Defensive 8% 5% 8% 3% 12% 3% 2% -1% 1% -4% 5% -3%
Utilities 0.6 Defensive 5% 0% 0% 1% 8% 4% 2% -2% -3% -2% 5% 1%
Health care 0.7 Defensive 13% 10% 15% 10% 16% 13% 2% -1% 3% -2% 3% 0%
Total Cyclical Weight vs ACWI -3% 3% -3% 12% -18% 3%
Total Defensive Weight (ex IT) vs ACWI 3% -3% 3% -12% 18% -3%
Source: Refinitiv Datastream and Schroders. Data as at 31 December 2021. Notes: market beta is a measure of how sensitive sector returns are to changes in the overall market index. Cyclical sectors are
defined as having a market beta greater than 1, (i.e. they outperform when the index rises), whereas defensive sectors have a beta less than 1 (i.e. they underperform when the index rises). Our calculation is
based on the last five years of monthly returns vs the MSCI ACWI Index. Min Vol index is based on and relative to MSCI World, US small caps are relative to MSCI USA. All other indices are based on MSCI ACWI
universe.
37Top constituents by market share
Market concentration is global phenomenon
US and UK equities heavily weighted towards top 10 stocks EM equities are dominated by Asia
Security concentration, % % of MSCI EM market cap
50 80
45
70
40
60
35 43.4
50
30
25 28.6 40
25.8 24.8
20 24.0
30
15 17.7
26.9 20
22.5 21.2
10 18.9 17.8
13.9 10
5
0 0
US UK EMU Japan EM ACWI 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Top 5 stocks Top 10 stocks China Korea Taiwan
Source: Refinitiv Datastream, MSCI. Data as at 31 December 2021.
38Appendix
List of indices (1 of 2) Large cap equities US – MSCI USA Index , or S&P 500 Index where specified UK – MSCI UK Index Europe ex UK – MSCI Europe ex UK Index Japan – MSCI Japan Index Developed markets – MSCI World Index Emerging markets – MSCI EM Index China – MSCI China Index Global – MSCI All Country World Index Rest of world – MSCI All Country World ex US Index Small cap equities US – MSCI USA Small Cap Index UK – MSCI UK Small Cap Index Europe ex UK – MSCI Europe ex UK Small Cap Index Japan – MSCI Japan Small Cap Index Emerging Markets – MSCI EM Small Cap Index Factor and sector indices US Value – MSCI USA Value Index US Growth – MSCI USA Growth Index US Cyclical – MSCI USA materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, energy, financials, IT US Defensive – MSCI USA utilities, consumer staples, health care, communication services Global Value – MSCI All Country World Value Index Global Growth – MSCI All Country World Growth Index 40
List of indices (2 of 2) Bond indices US Treasuries – ICE BofA US Treasury Index Euro government bonds – ICE BofA Euro Government Index US IG Corps – ICE BofA US Corporate Index UK IG Corps – ICE BofA Sterling Corporate Index Europe IG Corps - ICE BofA Euro Corporate Index Japan IG Corps - ICE BofA Japan Corporate Index EM IG Corps - ICE BofA Emerging Markets Corporate Plus Index Currency indices US Dollar – DXY US Dollar Currency Index 41
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