The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg

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The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg
The Future of
Heavy Industry –
Focus on Metals
Manufacturing
Trends & Developments in the Greek Market

kpmg.com/gr
The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg
Contents
             Sector & Segment Demand                        3                                                Basic Metals Future Outlook                                                  15
             Industrial Sector Structure                    4                                                Trends                                                                       16
             Heavy Manufacturing Indices                    6                                                Transformation Pillars                                                        17
             Basic Metals Structure, Size and Growth        7                                                Disruption Dynamics                                                          18
             Pricing Considerations                         8                                                Global Key Players                                                           20
             Financial Trends                               9
             Sub Segment Key Takeaways                     10
                                                                                                             Our Industrial Sectors team
                                                                                                             of local experts                                                            22
             Sector & Sub Segment Supply 11
             Basic Metals Market Players                    12                                               Our Industrial Sectors team
             Financial Overview                             13                                               of international experts                                                    23
             Main Challenges                                14

2       The Future of Heavy Industry             © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                 International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
        Focus on Metals Manufacturing
The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg
Sector & Segment Demand

3   The Future of Heavy Industry    © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                    International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
    Focus on Metals Manufacturing
The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg
Industrial Sector Structure
    Heavy & light manufacturing split within the Greek market
    Greek Industrial Sector
                                                   Heavy Manufacturing Segment
                                                                               Sales 2019 Euro billion
                                       Metals Manufacturing                                                                                         4 230            Heavy manufacturing
                                                  Chemicals                                                      2 434                                               is defined as a:
                                   Fabricated metal products                                   1 440                                                                 Highly capital intense, producing
                                                                                                                                                                     large sized items, predominantly
                               Non-metallic mineral products                               1 275                                                                     traded through B2B channels
                                                                                                                                                                     and used as primary or
                                            Mining/Quarrying                      743
                                                                                                                                                                     intermediary materials for the
                                     Machinery & equipment                   498                                                                                     final product.

                                             Primary Textiles               429

                                               Wood & Cork              209

                                                 Automotive          94                                                     TOTAL
                                                     Leather         53                                                 Euro 11.4 billion

                                                                                                                                                             Sources: Companies published financial data

4           The Future of Heavy Industry               © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                       International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
            Focus on Metals Manufacturing
The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg
Industrial Sector Structure
    Heavy & light manufacturing split within the Greek market
    Greek Industrial Sector
                                                    Light Manufacturing Segment
                                                                                    Sales 2019 Euro billion
                                                 Food products                                                                                        9 290            Light manufacturing
                                            Rubber and Plastics                        1 594                                                                           is defined as a:
                                                     Beverages                       1 444                                                                             Less capital intense process
                                                                                                                                                                       producing smaller sized
                                        Paper & paper products                      1 263
                                                                                                                                                                       items that are predominantly
                               Electrical & electronic equipment                 956                                                                                   consumer oriented and mostly
                                              Tobacco products                550                                                                                      assembly oriented if included in
                                                                                                                                                                       the production process.
                                  Wearing apparel (incl. leather)            438
                                      Printing & recorded media              413
                                                       Furniture            280
                               Electrical & electronic equipment           240                                                   TOTAL
                                            Other manufacturing            118                                               Euro 16.6 billion

                                                                                                                                                               Sources: Companies published financial data

5           The Future of Heavy Industry                 © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                         International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
            Focus on Metals Manufacturing
The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg
Heavy Manufacturing Indices
    Price & production
    Heavy Manufacturing is showing clear signs of recovery                                                                 Production Price Index (PPI)*

                                                                                                                            2016          2017           2018          2019          2020          2021

            2017   67%
           Industrial Capacity
                                                                                                                             98.9          99.9         100.1         100.2         100.1         101.8

          Utilization remained                                                                                                                                                              *excl. energy
            below 70% level
                                                                                                                           The Producer Price Index represents the average

                                                      2020       72%
                                                  Capacity Utilization
                                                                                                                           movement in selling prices of domestic production
                                                                                                                           over time (base year 2015). The Greek industrial
                                                                                                                           sector remains attractive and continues to offer
                                                                                                                           products at competitively low prices, since the PPI
                                                    surpasses 70%                                                          experienced minor growth in the past six years.
                                                 levels just before the
                                                  COVID-19 outbreak
                                                                                                                           Industrial Production Index (IPI)*

                                                                                                                            2016           2017          2018          2019          2020          2021

                       May
                       2021      77%
                     Capacity Utilization
                                                                                                                             98.8         104.9         106.4         103.5         100.6         104.3

                                                                                                                                                                             *Mining & Manufacturing
                     reaches 77% levels
                                                                                                                           The Industrial Production Index measures levels of
                                                                                                                           real output and capacity (base year 2015). Demand
                                                                                                                           for industrial goods is strong again in Greece,
                                                                                                                           as the IPI has recovered in the last 3 years and
                                            Sources: Companies published financial data                                    capacity utilization has reached 77% levels.

6           The Future of Heavy Industry    © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                            International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
            Focus on Metals Manufacturing
The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg
Basic Metals Structure, Size & Growth
    The basic metals sub-segment within the Greek economy
    The basic metals industry includes the manufacturing of copper, iron, steel, aluminum and other intermediate metal goods.
    Steel girders, aluminum sheets and copper wire are some of the products the basic metals industry produces.

                          The Basic Metals Industry turnover is                                                          During 2019, Basic Metals production                                                        The Sub-sector is
                          on the rise with a Compound Annual                                                             contributed 0.63% towards the Greek GDP.                                                    an important
                          Growth Rate of 6.2% from 2013 to                                                               Metals exports (including ores) comprised                                                   employer for the
                          2019. This is largely due to increased                                                         8.4% of total Greek exports, the second                                                     Greek economy as in
                          exports and significant infrastructure                                                         largest export category after mineral                                       2021 the industry directly occupied
                          projects.                                                                                      products.                                                                   more than 20 thousand individuals,
                                                                                                                                                                                                     which is 0.5% of Greece’s total
                                                                                                                                                                                                     workforce. Nevertheless, the
                                                                                                                                                                                                     subsegment is highly dependent on:
              Basic Metals Annual Turnover Growth                                                    Basic Metals GDP Contribution per Annum (%)
                                                                                                                                                                                                     —The energy and mining industries
                                                                                                                                 0.66 0.69 0.63                                                        due to production significance
                                                 2 953                                                       0.55 0.58 0.60 0.58
                                                                                                                                                                                                     —The construction industry since it
                                                    3 210                                                                                                                                              strongly defines sales
                                                     3 317                                                                                                                                           —Local and international legislation,
                                                    3 233                                                                                                                                              as they may define both sales and
                                                                  3 912                                      2013     2014     2015      2016     2017     2018     2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                       cost
                                                                           4 522                                                           Source: Companies published financial data
                                                                        4 230                                                                                                                      Employees Occupied in Basic
    0   500    1 000   1 500   2 000   2 500   3 000   3 500    4 000    4 500    5 000                                                                                                              Metals Manufacturing (k)
                                                                                                    Basic Metals Exports Contribution per Annum (%)                                                                             +5%
        Other (e.g. Gold, Silver, Nickel)        Basic iron, steel and ferro-alloys
                                                                                                                                                      9.41          9.05                           25                                  21
        Copper                                   Aluminium                                                                  8.85         8.62                                    8.41                                    19
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                21            20     20
                                                                                                  7.28         7.73                                                                                20             18
                                                                                                                                                                                                           15
                                                Source: Companies published financial data                                                                                                          15
                                                                                                                                                                                                   10
                                                                                                                                                                                                     5

                                                                                                  2013         2014         2015         2016         2017          2018         2019                0

                                                                                                                                                                                                           2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2018

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2021
                                                                                                                                                                        Source: World Bank

7                   The Future of Heavy Industry                                            © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                                                            International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
                    Focus on Metals Manufacturing
The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg
Pricing Considerations
    Cost of metals & energy amidst the pandemic
    Raw material and energy constitute a major expense for companies within the subsegment. More specifically, price fluctuations of
    these production constituents have a major impact on operations.

                                                                                                                      Basic Metals prices during the pandemic

                                                                                                                                             Aluminium ($/mt) 3                                   Copper ($/tn) 3

        Metals           The price of raw materials (scrap metal & ore), has increased
                         sharply amidst the pandemic. From the start of the pandemic
                         till June 2021 the price of aluminium increased 44%, of                                         3 000
                                                                                                                                                        +44%
                                                                                                                                                                             15 000
                                                                                                                                                                                                              +79%

                         copper 79%, of Iron 137% and of steel scrap 75.6%.                                              2 000                                               10 000
                         This is mainly due to:                                                                          1 000                                                 5 000
                         —Production and transportation of metals being initially                                              0
                                                                                                                                                 Jan           Jan
                                                                                                                                                                                    0
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jan            Jan
                             disrupted thus hindering supply                                                                    Jan 2019        2020          2021                 Jan 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                    2020           2021
                         —Consumers spending shift from services to goods that
                             could require metals as raw materials. Such products
                             include home appliances and outdoor equipment                                                          Natural Gas (NYM $/MMBtu) 1                                 Iron ($/dmtu) 3
                         —A sharp increase in freight rates for the transportation of
                                                                                                                                                     +39,8%
                             bulk material as key ports were congested, quarantine                                          4                                                    300                         +137%
                             restrictions and challenges regarding ship crewing                                                                                                  200
                                                                                                                            2
                         —Policy changes from major production territories such as                                                                                              100
                             China and Russia                                                                               0
                                                                                                                             Jan               Jan          Jan                     0
                                                                                                                            2019              2020         2021                                     Jan             Jan
                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan 2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                   2020            2021

       Energy            For metal manufacturing companies, energy can represent
                         up to 40% of the total operating cost. Taking that into
                         consideration, COVID-19 disruptions that led to an increase
                                                                                                                                              Steel Scrap ($/tn) 4                              Crude Oil (NYM $/bbl)1

                                                                                                                                                        +75,6%                                                +35,1%
                         in the price of resources used for energy production will                                         600                                                     80
                         significantly impact the sector. Since the start of the                                           400                                                     60
                         pandemic, till June 2021:                                                                                                                                 40
                                                                                                                           200
                         —Natural gas price has increased more than 39%                                                                                                           20

                         —Coal price has increased around 144%2                                                                0                                                   0
                                                                                                                                  Jan            Jan           Jan                      Jan           Jan            Jan
                         —Oil prices are around 35% higher                                                                      2019           2020          2021                     2019          2020           2021

                                                                                                                                           Sources: Nasdaq1, Business Insider2, World Bank3, London Metals Exchange4

8             The Future of Heavy Industry                  © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                            International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
              Focus on Metals Manufacturing
The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg
Financial Trends
    The two sides of the Greek basic metals sub segment
                    Sales
                  —From 2015 to 2019, sectoral sales have increased                       2013                                                               2 953
                    around 27.5%¹. For that period the spike in sales can                  2014                                                                    3 210
                    be attributed to a stronger sectoral export activity                   2015                                                                     3 317
                    that increased 3.5%² and infrastructure investment of                  2016                                                                    3 233
                    approximately Euro 12.5 billion
                                                                                           2017                                                                                  3 912
                  —Within the next decade, planned large-scale projects                   2018                                                                                              4 522
                    worth more than Euro 21.5 billion will boost sectoral                  2019                                                                                        4 230
                    sales. However, large-scale projects could also cause                          0       500      1 000     1 500     2 000     2 500   3 000     3 500     4 000     4 500     5 000
                    sudden spikes in local demand that would test the
                    production and transportation capacity of the sub                                         Other (e.g. Gold, Silver, Nickel)              Basic iron, steel and ferro-alloys

                    segment                                                                                   Copper                                         Aluminium

                    Debt & Liquidity
                  —Sectoral debt swells every year with bank liabilities                         —Despite increased debt, an additional 20% of companies
                    increasing 122% from 2015 to 2019. Tough competition,                           managed to cover their interest payments in 2019 than
                    increasing cost of metals used in production and great                          in 2015. This change could be attributed to the 27.5%
                    cost of replacing machinery/ expanding production pushed                        increase in total sub segment turnover and 54% decrease
                    organisations to seek liquidity from financial institutions or                  in the average cost of debt3, 4
                    the market3, 4

                                                                                Sources: Companies published financial data¹, Observatory of Economic Complexity², KPMG Analysis3, Company annual reports4

9          The Future of Heavy Industry                      © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                             International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
           Focus on Metals Manufacturing
The Future of Heavy Industry - Focus on Metals Manufacturing - Trends & Developments in the Greek Market - assets.kpmg
Basic Metals Manufacturing
     Key takeaways
                 Economy Booster                                                                                                 Upcoming Mega-Projects
                 The basic metals industry is one of the top earners,                                                            Local Mega-Projects that will require vast amounts of
                 exporters and important employers for the Greek                                                                 resources shall test the sub segment’s production and
                 economy.                                                                                                        transportation capacity because of higher demand.

                                                                                                               Price volatility of Primary Materials
       Manufacturing Powerhouse                                                                                COVID-19 disruptions have led to a sharp increase
       Manufacturing and fabrication of metals makes up                                                        in the price of primary materials. As primary
       the largest heavy manufacturing sub segment in                                                          materials constitute a major expense, companies
       Greece with sales of Euro 5.7 billion.                                                                  are now facing the challenge to maintain their
                                                                                                               profitability and continuous operations.

                                                                                                                                 Price volatility of Electricity
                 Growth Factors                                                                                                  Electricity is another major expense for production. The
                 Large scale projects and exports are the driving force
                                                                                                                                 recent rise in its price further adds to the prementioned
                 for the sub segment’s growth.
                                                                                                                                 challenge.

       Price Fluctuations                                                                                      Competitive Product
       COVID-19 supply chain disruptions, environmental                                                        The Production Price Index ascending course
       concerns, ambitious infrastructure projects and                                                         confirms that the Greek industrial sector remains
       trade policies shape metal prices, largely pushing                                                      attractive and continues to offer products at
       them upwards.                                                                                           competitive prices.

10            The Future of Heavy Industry                    © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                              International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
              Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Sector & Sub Segment Supply

11   The Future of Heavy Industry    © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                     International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
     Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Basic Metals Market Players
     Areas of focus for the market’s key players
     Type of metal manufactured by key players           The metals value chain

        Copper       Viohalco

                     Viohalco
                     Mytilineos Holdings
                                                           Mining                      Refining                  Extraction                       Casting                     Rolling,    Further
      Aluminium      Alumil
                     Exalco                                                                                                                                                  Extruding, processing /
                     Cosmos Aluminium                                                                                                                                         Forging    assembly

                                                                                                                                                                                 Viohalco
         Iron &      Viohalco
                     Helliniki Halyvourgia
          Steel      Elastron                                                                                      Mytilineos

                                                                                                                                                                                  Alumil
     —Large players are focused on Aluminium, iron,
       steel & ferro alloys and copper                                                                                                                                                          Exalco
     —Most players produce one type of metal                                                                                                                      Cosmos
       (aluminium or iron, steel & ferro-alloys) apart                                                                                                            Aluminium
       from Viohalco which produces all 3 metals and
       dominates the copper market                                                                                                                                                            Elastron
     —Through Aluminium of Greece, Mytilineos is the                                                                                                                          Helliniki
       most vertically integrated player, with strong                   Aluminium
                                                                                                                                                                              Halyvourgia
       presence in mining, refining and extraction of                  Iron, Steel &
       aluminium                                                        Ferro-alloys                                                                                             Viohalco
     —Other players are more focused on processing                       Copper
       metals into standard shapes or mechanisms                                                                                                                                 Viohalco

12                The Future of Heavy Industry               © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                             International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
                  Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Financial Overview
     Size and financials of key players
     Market Size                                         Revenue (top 7 players)                                                               CAGR (2015-2019) | Revenue (2019) |
                                                                                                                                               % EBITDA (2019)
                                                         Euro million
                2%
              2%          7%                                 6.0                                                                                % EBITDA                                                       Revenue
            2%
                                                                                                                5.6                              30
          3%                                                                                                                   5.5
                                       23%                   5.5
         3%                         Aluminium                                                                                                    25

                                                             5.0                                  4.8                                            20

                         5,78 BN*
                                                                                                                4.4            4.2
           10%                                                                                                                                   15
                                                             4.5        4.3
                                                                                    4.2           3.7                                            10
                      Metals Revenue
                          (2019)                                        3.3         3.1                                                           5
                                      28%                    1.0                                0.6                            0.6
                     21%                                                0.6 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.1             0.2
                                                                                                                                                  0
                                     Copper                                                                                                           -2 -1 0      1   2    3   4    5   6    7   8    9 10 11 12 13
                 Ferro Alloys                                               0.1     0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
                                                             0.5
                                                                        0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1                                                                                                       CAGR %
                                                                            0.1     0.1     0.1 0.1 0.1     0.1                                —Mytilineos SA’s profitability (EBITDA margin %)
                                                             0.0
                                                                     2015          2016          2017          2018         2019                 significantly deviated from the average 6% of the
                                                                                                                                                 industry as it managed to increase profitability
     —The “Basic Metals” market, consisting of metal    —The industry has experienced continuous growth                                        from 14% in 2016 to 28% in 2019. This was
       manufacturing and fabricated metal products, is     reaching a peak in 2018 and experiencing a                                            achieved by a) restructuring its organisation,
       highly concentrated                                 28% increase in revenue from 2015-2019. This                                          overall benefitting from group synergies and
     —Due to the nature of the industry (very capital     is mainly due to revenue growth by Viohalco.                                          b) capitalizing on its mining facilities to hedge
       intense) this attribute is expected                 During this period Viohalco increased production                                      against and benefit from rising metal prices
     —The main metals produced are Aluminium, Iron        capacity, secured large customer orders and                                         —Companies with smaller revenue have higher
       alloys and Copper with players such as Viohalco     developed a strong exporting activity                                                 CAGR% than the two largest players. Elastron
       producing a variety of metals                     —Throughout this period, the industry is dominated                                     has the highest CAGR 12.56%. Exalco, Cosmos
     —The market is largely dominated by Viohalco         by 2 large players                                                                    Aluminium and Helliniki Halyvourgia follow with
       which claimed 72% market share in 2019,                                                                                                   around 10%, while Viohalco and Mytilineos have
       followed by Mytilineos Holdings with 10%                                                                                                  lowest for the period
       market share. The rest of the competition
       comprises the other 18% of the market                                       Viohalco                           Helliniki Halyvourgia            EXALCO                                Elastron
                                                                                   Mytilineos Holdings                Alumil                           COSMOS ALUMINIUM                      Other

13                The Future of Heavy Industry                  © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                                International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
                  Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Main Challenges
     Challenges faced by key players in the basic metals
     manufacturing subsegment
                 Hindered access to raw material                                                                                  Economies of scale
                 (a) Supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19 and
                                                                                                                                  Local demand is not currently adequate for companies
                 (b) policy changes regulating metals production and
                                                                                                                                  to realise greater economies of scale to match top
                 trade have hindered the sector’s ability to source
                                                                                                                                  international peers.
                 material.

       Payments Obligations                                                                                     Availability of Transportation
       More than 50% of companies could face difficulties                                                       Seasonality of sales and disruptions (such as
       settling payments due to decreased liquidity and                                                         COVID-19) periodically cause a shortfall in the
       larger debt obligations.                                                                                 means of product transportation.

                 Debt Obligations                                                                                                 Quality concerns
                 Debt in the sector has been piling up throughout the
                                                                                                                                  Companies in the sector find it increasingly difficult to
                 years. Companies are called to maintain a sustainable
                                                                                                                                  procure high-grade scrap to meet final product quality
                 level of debt amidst (a) rising production cost and (b)
                                                                                                                                  requirements.
                 required investments to satisfy future demand.

                                                                                                                Transformation Oriented
       Workforce Availability                                                                                   Companies, such as Mytilineos, that are focused
       Companies have troubles locating and recruiting                                                          on reshaping their organisation, are sturdier
       specialized personnel for the factory floor.                                                             in absorbing price fluctuations, retaining their
                                                                                                                profitability and exhibit greater fulfilment flexibility.

14            The Future of Heavy Industry                     © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                               International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
              Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Basic Metals Future Outlook

15   The Future of Heavy Industry    © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                     International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
     Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Trends
     Trends within the basic metals manufacturing subsegment
     The Basic Metals manufacturing subsegment is going through a transitional phase, driven by innovation and industry dynamics

                    Environmental,                Automation                                     Production Practices                                 Workforce Agility
                    Sustainability &              The pandemic highlighted                       Metallurgy companies                                 Human capital in the
                    Governance                    the need for companies                         are bound to continue to                             Greek metal industry
                    Greek metal                   to reduce operational                          invest in manufacturing                              follows an upward trend
                    manufacturers are             disruptions and lower                          automation equipment and                             in the last decade while
                    committed to invest           supply-chain risks. Leading                    technologies supporting                              some manufacturers have
                    strategically in the          metal manufacturers in                         digital development. New                             embraced automation
                    local and global goal of      Greece have shifted their                      production practices such                            to deal with trained
                    sustainable development.      center of attention to                         as automated paint and                               workforce shortage in
                    They have increased           automation and linked their                    pre-lubrication lines are                            areas such as process
                    their focus on ESG            ERP and CRM systems                            expected to result to                                optimization.
                    initiatives (green agenda,    to properly evaluate their                     increased capacity and a
                    sustainability code, etc.),   supply constraints and                         wider available range in
                    contributing to Greece        readjust their supply                          aluminium / steel products.
                    being the European Union      networks.
                    (EU) member country with
                    the most significant annual
                    drop in carbon emissions
                    in 2020.

16             The Future of Heavy Industry                © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                           International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
               Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Opportunities & Concerns
     Overview of what the sub segment considers as an opportunity & concern
     Basic Metals manufacturing has exhibited remarkable resilience in Greece during the past few years.

                                 Opportunities                                                                                                       Concerns
                    ESG                                 Reinventing                                           High-Priced Products                                                         Introversion
          Greek metal manufacturers                  Production Model                                       Greek metal manufacturing is                                           Some smaller and medium
           should shift their focus to            The disruption caused by the                              highly dependent on external                                             sized companies of the
        decarbonization and the green            pandemic forced the domestic                                 (commodity prices, energy                                             domestic metals industry
         agenda. Companies that will               metals industry to consider                              cost, etc.) and internal factors                                      are struggling to regain their
        proactively tackle ESG issues            reinventing their manufacturing                             (lack of economies of scale,                                        competitiveness only through
        may strengthen their corporate             model and examine options                                  labour cost) and generates                                           cost control and workforce
         brand and gain a competitive            such as additive manufacturing                                high-priced final products.                                         productivity, ignoring other
          edge in such as access for              or incorporating/upgrading the                                                                                                      transformation paths.
                    capital.                         automation process, etc.

                                After a turbulent era, leading
                                Greek industry players are                                                        Commodity price & volatility and
                                focusing on reducing costs,                                                       cost of energy continue to be the
                                integrating technologies (such as                                                 leading concerns for the metal
                                connected automation) to drive                                                    manufacturing industry.
                                growth and increase productivity.

17               The Future of Heavy Industry                   © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                                International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
                 Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Disruption Dynamics
     Driving forces behind the transition of basic metals manufacturing
     Basic metals manufacturing in Greece is in “smart” transition…

     The evolution of digital technologies has fundamentally changed the way metal manufacturing plants operate. Facilities are becoming
     increasingly interconnected, paving the way to the factories of the future.

                    Robotics & AI                                      Connectivity                                                                        Data Systems
                     Leading Greek steel                          Combined design and                                                           Information exchange of robotics
               manufacturers have integrated                 interconnection of technology,                                                   and management offers significantly
               automation and high-precision               robots, software and mechanical/                                                      better production control while
              tools in their production line and               electrical equipment are key                                                    reducing operating costs and leads
                have managed to form a fully                  components to increase steel                                                       to the creation of “smart“ plant
                 interconnected production                       productivity and ensure                                                            facilities that provide steel
                process, which offers useful                    consistent product quality.                                                          products of added value.
                     information and data
                      across its factories.

18             The Future of Heavy Industry            © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                       International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
               Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Basic Metals Future Outlook
     Global Market Demand & Production
     Metal production is ready to meet increasing global demand…

                                                                                  Additional
                         Urbanization                                                                                                                             Technology
                                                                                   Income

                    City developments have led to                   Rising income in Asia stipulates                                             Due to technological advancements,
                increased commodity consumption                  that all major metal markets are set                                            the primary production process has
                    which is project to only grow.                 to increase in size within the next                                            grown significantly more efficient,
                      Growing demand from the                    15 years. Aluminium and nickel will                                             offering metals at competitive prices
                    construction industry, energy                  lead the way, their use is going to                                           that are bound to increase demand.
               revolution with electric vehicles being            intensify. Copper has been lagging
                  at the forefront and expansion of                    but is expected to recover.
                public transport network will further
                   increase basic metals demand.

                                                                              Production

                                                         Steel                                  Aluminum                                Copper
                                                     1 880M Tones                                64M Tones                             20M Tones
                                                                                                                                            2020 Global Data

19             The Future of Heavy Industry                  © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                             International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
               Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Global Key Players
     Basic Metals Global Key Players
                 Global players production segments
            Aluminium                    Iron & Steel                         Copper
                                                                                                                                            Major global
      1.    Baowu                   1.    Baowu                     1.    Rio Tinto                                                         players are
      2.    Novelis                 2.    ArcelorMittal             2.    BHP                                                               focused on
                                                                                                                                            aluminium, with
      3.    Arconic                 3.    HBIS                      3.    Grupo Mexico                                                      a plethora of
      4.    Alcoa                   4.    Nippon Steel &            4.    First Quantum                                                     contestants.
      5.    East Hope Group               Sumitomo Metal                  Minerals
      6.    Company Limited               Corporation               5.    KGHM Polska
      7.    Norsk Hydro             5.    Hebei Iron and                  Miedz                                                                                                     Most companies
      8.    Emirates Global               Steel Group               6.    Norilsk Nickel                                                                                            produce one type
            Aluminium               6.    Baosteel                  7.    Codelco                                                                                                   of metal apart
                                                                                                                                                                                    from Baowu which
      9.    Xinfa                   7.    Wuhan Iron and            8.    Glencore                                                                                                  produces aluminium
      10.   Hongqiao                      Steel Group               9.    Freeport-                                                                                                 but also dominates
      11.   Rusal                   8.    Posco                           McMoRan Copper                                                                                            the steel market.
      12.   Chalco                  9.    Tata Steel Group                & Gold
                                                                                                                                            Top 20 metal and
      13.   Real Alloy              10.   JFE Steel                                                                                         mining companies
      14.   Kaiser                                                                                                                          account for more than
      15.   Loften                                                                                                                          60% of the global
                                                                                                                                            market, which is
      16.   JW Aluminum
                                                                                                                                            expected to grow at a
      17.   Constellium                                                                                                                     5% pace in the 2021-
      18.   Rio Tinto Alcan                                                                                                                 2026 period.

20              The Future of Heavy Industry                 © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                                             International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
                Focus on Metals Manufacturing
Our Local & International Experts

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                                     International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
     Focus on Metals Manufacturing
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22        The Future of Heavy Industry        © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                              International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
          Focus on Metals Manufacturing
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23        The Future of Heavy Industry     © 2022 KPMG Advisors Single Member S.A., a Greek Société Anonyme and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG
                                           International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved.
          Focus on Metals Manufacturing
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