THINK US cities Q1 2018 - Trends and Tactics - TH Real Estate
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THINK US cities
Trends and Tactics
Q1 2018
This document is solely for the use of professionals and is not for general public distribution.Economic dashboard: Despite stock market volatility, economy is just fine
Positive economic data and signals from the bond market
suggest the economy, and real estate, should remain on Real estate leading economic indicators
solid ground. Recent volatility in the equity markets is causing
some investors to call in to question the health of this nine year
upcycle. Does recent volatility in the stock market indicate a Indicators Position Outlook indicator
recession is imminent or were those pesky trading algorithms
playing games again? All signs point to a positive outlook. Job growth remains positive. The longest streak of monthly job gains
Employment
on record continued into 2018. Latest job gains totaled 200,000 in
The economy accelerated in 2017, posting 2.3% GDP growth growth
January, above 2017 trend.
compared to 1.5% in 2016 which should support real estate Labor
demand. Economists expect annual GDP growth will exceed
Markets The unemployment rate held at 4.1% in January 2018. This rate is
those levels in 2018. Early signals in Q1 2018 support another Unemployment the lowest of the recovery and low relative to history. Tight labor
quarter of positive economic growth. rate conditions are putting upward pressure on incomes, which rose by
2.9% YoY in January 2018, the fastest pace since 2009.
Job growth is strong and the labor market remains at full
employment. The Labor Department reported that the US
added a robust 200,000 new jobs in January 2018. Weekly Fundamentals generally moderated or remained steady during Q4
2017, although industrial held near all-time low vacancy. Supply has
claims for unemployment insurance benefits are also near Vacancy rates
caught up to demand in most sectors, causing vacancy rates to
record lows. Tight labor market conditions are giving rise to CRE stabilize or move modestly higher.
wages, which grew by 2.9% YoY in January 2018, the fastest
fundam-
pace in 2009.
entals Rent growth was mostly positive but is slowing as the US real estate
What do the public markets tell us about the future? Rents and rent cycle enters the mature phase of its cycle. However, industrial rent
growth growth is outperforming as landlords are in a position of pricing
Part of the stock market volatility experienced in early 2018 can power.
be attributed to the divergence in fiscal and monetary policy
that has caused investors to reset their expectations for 10-year US treasury yields reached 2.9% in February after the Trump
returns. The Fed has been hiking rates in response to a strong Interest rates tax cuts took effect and inflation expectations moved higher as a
economy and rising inflation expectations. Meanwhile, Congress result of stronger economic and labor market signals.
Capital
recently passed a stimulus measure by way of the tax bill, and
markets The US S&P 500 reached all-time high levels in January 2018, but
they recently lifted a budget spending cap for the next two Investor risk
years. In the near term, recent fiscal stimulus should buoy pulled back by ~11% in February from the highs. Volatility once again
appetite
current market valuations, if not elevate them higher. returned to equity markets, and investors have taken notice.
Real estate market conditions are tempering somewhat, but Mortgage debt is readily available for core, income producing assets.
Debt for
are solid overall. The US real estate market is poised for Lenders are taking a more cautious look at opportunistic strategies,
investors
another year of positive performance. We expect core unlevered willing to lend on quality projects with top sponsors.
Debt
real estate total returns to range between 5% and 6% in 2018.
availability Construction lending continues to be available, but banks are more
Investors should focus on asset selection and income given our Debt for
expectations for minimal appreciation in 2018. diligent than ever. Well located projects with strong market
construction
fundamentals have no trouble getting financed.
Source: TH Real Estate, February 2018.
2 THINK US cities: Trends and tacticsOffice trends: A new way to work
The factors that are fuelling demand for a new way to work Characteristics of co-working
Considered a fad by some, co-working emerged from the GFC as a trendy, collegial • Desk space or private offices within a shared space
office alternative that houses startups, entrepreneurs, freelancers, and small • Flexible rental agreements
businesses. It has evolved into a noteworthy office subsector that has recently • A focus on networking and relationships
attracted the attention of some of the world’s largest enterprises, including IBM, • Fosters a close-knit, entrepreneurial, and professional community
Microsoft, GE and Spotify. • Growing interest from large enterprises
The demand for co-working stemmed from a confluence of societal, economic,
demographic, and technological factors that include a renewed interest in
entrepreneurship, the Millennial lifestyle, the harsh realities of technology-driven
disruption, changing business priorities, and the contingent workforce.
Rise of contingent
Surge in start-ups Strong employment Enterprise growth
workforce Number of start-ups went from At 57.3 million, or 36% of the US Companies with 250 or more
At current growth rates,
560,000 in 2010 to 679,000 in workforce, the number of people employees take up 54% of the
contingent workers will become
2015, a 17% increase freelancing has grown 8.1% since market share in 2015, compared
the majority of the US workforce
2014 and 4.2% since 2016 to 49% in 1993. To cut costs,
in 2027, an increase of nearly 25
many will use co-working space
million workers
Millennial Magnet Growing tech innovation Rise of the sharing economy Changing business
Younger generations are Rise in technology such as cloud-based Uber owns zero cars and is valued priorities
driving the acceleration, applications, the web of things, web- at $62.5B while Airbnb owns zero 80% of global corporations are
47% of working millennials conference tools, internet and wi-fi, cell homes and has a value of $31B planning to significantly increase
freelance, more than any phones, laptops and more make it easier their use of the contingent
other generation to work remotely workforce
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Upwork, TH Real Estate, Q3 2017
3 THINK US cities: Trends and tacticsOffice: Under pressure, landlords focus on place-making and service
Office performance Office market opportunities
Office unlevered property returns averaged 6.0% for 2017, the third highest among While the disruption is causing headaches for traditional office owners, they are
traditional property sectors. Appreciation has been largely absent from returns in beginning to fight back with new and innovative spaces themselves. This period of
2017, contributing just 1.3% to the total return. Vacancy rates gradually declined uncertainty will almost certainly provide opportunities for investors who are able to
and reached levels last seen prior to the GFC. Office vacancy rates have held see into the future of the working world and willing listen to the needs of their
around 13.0% for the past three years. tenants.
Office rent growth has been far weaker this cycle than in the prior cycle, a trend The office sector has been under pressure and is going through structural changes.
unlikely to abate given our view that the US office market is undergoing structural Those changes are forcing landlords to invest large amounts of capital into their
changes. assets to stay relevant, dragging returns lower.
The sector faces headwinds that are constraining demand, despite strong jobs Office owners are finding it increasingly difficult to provide value to their tenants
numbers, full employment and a growing economy. The contingent workforce is through traditional property management and services, which has given rise to
growing, and they have been moving out of Starbucks stores and into co-working companies like WeWork. WeWork has capitalized on the value proposition gap
spaces. Demographics are playing a large part. And office tenants require less between tenants and existing landlords and are winning the battle for new tenants.
space per worker. Additionally, mobile technology is enabling workers to complete They offer enhanced business services, networking and tight-knit community in
their jobs from anywhere in the world. unconventional, well designed spaces at hip locations – and they don’t own their real
estate.
Office vacancy rates, 1994-2017 Effective rent growth (YoY), 1994-2017
Downtown Suburban Downtown Suburban
21% 20%
19% 15%
17% 10%
15% 5%
13% 0%
11% -5%
9% -10%
7% -15%
5% -20%
1996.2
1999.2
2007.3
1997.4
2017.2
1997.1
2005.2
2008.2
1995.3
1998.3
2003.4
2015.1
2015.4
2003.1
2004.3
2013.3
2014.2
1994.4
2000.4
2001.3
2011.2
1994.1
2000.1
2002.2
2006.4
2009.4
2010.3
2006.1
2009.1
2012.1
2012.4
2016.3
1996.2
1999.2
2007.3
2017.2
1997.1
1997.4
2005.2
2008.2
1995.3
2015.1
2015.4
1998.3
2003.1
2003.4
2004.3
2013.3
2000.4
2014.2
2001.3
2011.2
1994.1
1994.4
2000.1
2002.2
2006.4
2009.4
2010.3
2006.1
2009.1
2012.1
2012.4
2016.3
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q4 2017.
4 THINK US cities: Trends and tacticsIndustrial: Tailwinds will keep the sector in front of the pack
Industrial performance Industrial market opportunities
Industrial property returns averaged a robust 13.1% for 2017, the highest among Low levels of available space and high demand provide the perfect conditions for
traditional property sectors and the only sector to remain in double-digits. Typically another solid year in 2018. Investor interest in the sector has never been higher due
this late in the economic cycle, investors begin to shy away from real estate to these favorable conditions and expected performance. Industrial investment sales
sectors most exposed to growth. But this economic cycle is unlike any other in the were up 20% YoY in 2017, while all other major sectors saw moderate declines.
past, especially for industrial real estate. The warehouse sector is operating in a
From a retailer’s perspective, an efficient supply chain is critical to omni-channel
cycle all on its own. Strong performance is buoyed by the strong secular trends of
business operations. Today, rent accounts for less than 5% of supply chain costs. As
e-commerce and omni-channel retailing.
transportation costs (~55% of supply chain costs) diminish with better technology,
Availability rates held relatively steady in Q4 2017 at 7.4% which we believe will rents are positioned for growth at facilities located near large populations and close
continue in 2018. The steep decline in availability rates from outsized demand for to customers.
industrial space is finally being met with sufficient levels of new supply, which is
E-commerce sales represent approximately 9% of total sales today, and we expect
evidenced by flattening availability rates in recent years.
that number to grow to 14% in the coming years, driving demand for warehouse
We anticipate availability rates will continue to flatten or eventually rise modestly, space. The proliferation of online sales combined with new pro-growth legislation
but not to levels that would put pressure on effective rent levels. Rents rose by 5% and a strong global economy will offer support for continued growth in the sector,
or more for the second consecutive year in 2017. generating new opportunities to invest.
Industrial availability rate, 1990-2017 Effective rent growth (YoY), 1990-2017
16.0% 8.0%
14.0% 6.0%
4.0%
12.0%
2.0%
10.0% 0.0%
8.0% -2.0%
6.0% -4.0%
-6.0%
4.0%
-8.0%
2.0% -10.0%
0.0% -12.0%
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1990
1992
1991
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1990
1992
1996
1991
1993
1994
1995
1997
1998
1999
2001
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q4 2017. Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2017
5 THINK US cities: Trends and tacticsRetail: The view is becoming clearer for landlords and investors
Retail performance Retail market opportunities
Retail unlevered property returns averaged 5.7% for 2017, the fourth highest There is a growing divide between the performance of prime retail assets and those
among traditional property sectors. of lower quality and location. However, this gap is opening up a host of opportunities
to invest in retail that is well positioned for growth where pricing is misunderstood
Vacancy rates moved higher for the first time in 2017 since peaking at nearly 13%
by market participants.
in 2010. Neighborhood and Community Center vacancy pushed up 60 bps YoY to
9.6% in Q4 2017. Despite the increase in vacancy over the year, retail conditions At this point in retail’s transformation, landlords have a better understanding of how
have improved and vacancy rates were low enough for landlords to push rents to manage their properties, tenant mix, and threats from online sales competition.
higher. Low levels of new supply will continue to support positive performance in Across the retail landscape, landlords and retailers are forming new partnerships and
2018. are aligning their interests in new ways to help protect and enhance the value of
retail assets.
The strongest YoY rent growth of this cycle was recorded at 3.1% in 2017.
Landlords are increasingly confident in their ability to push rents on tenants who
have weathered the wave of storms coming from e-commerce.
Retail availability rate, 1994-2017 Effective rent growth (YoY), 1994-2017
14% 8%
13% 6%
12% 4%
11%
2%
10%
0%
9%
-2%
8%
7% -4%
6% -6%
1996.2
1999.2
2007.3
2017.2
1997.4
1997.1
2005.2
2008.2
2015.4
1995.3
1998.3
2003.4
2015.1
2003.1
2004.3
2013.3
2014.2
1994.4
2000.4
1994.1
2000.1
2001.3
2002.2
2006.4
2009.4
2010.3
2011.2
1996.2
1999.2
2007.3
2006.1
2009.1
2012.4
2017.2
2012.1
2016.3
1997.4
1997.1
2005.2
2008.2
2015.4
1995.3
2015.1
1998.3
2003.4
2003.1
2004.3
2013.3
2014.2
1994.4
2000.4
1994.1
2000.1
2001.3
2002.2
2006.4
2009.4
2010.3
2011.2
2006.1
2009.1
2012.4
2012.1
2016.3
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q4 2017. Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q3 2017
6 THINK US cities: Trends and tacticsMultifamily: Markets are normalizing, but opportunities still exist
Multifamily performance Multifamily market opportunities
Apartment unlevered returns averaged 6.2% for 2017, the second highest among Rents in low-rise garden apartments have marched higher over the past few years,
traditional property sectors. Garden apartments have continued to outperform the outperforming their taller peers. This phenomenon is largely due to excess supply
apartment subsectors, with returns of 8.9% in 2017 versus 4.7% for high-rise delivered in urban markets where mid-rise and high-rise projects are more prevalent.
apartments. Appreciation returns on garden apartments bucked recent downward
We believe this story will continue throughout the cycle. It will be easier for landlords
trends and have accelerated for two consecutive quarters.
to get higher rent bumps in markets with limited new supply, and that just happens
Vacancy rates remained below 5.0% in 2017, finishing the year at 4.8% in Q4 2017. to be in suburban metro areas.
Under the weight of new supply, apartment vacancy held up better than many
In select metro areas where luxury and Class-A high-rise and mid-rise apartments
market participants would have guessed as stronger job growth led to better than
are seeing vacancy and rental rate pressure, there may be select buying
expected household formations. Nevertheless, apartment vacancy rates moved
opportunities to purchase quality assets on a relatively attractive basis.
modestly higher from the lows reached in 2015.
According to CBRE-EA, effective rents were largely steady in 2017. A slight
increase in vacancy rates and oversupply in some markets around the country put
pressure on landlords‘ ability to raise rents. At this point in the cycle we are seeing
supply weigh on rent growth. Most markets ended 2017 at pretty modest growth
rates, or even declines.
Apartment vacancy rate, 1994-2017 Same-store effective rent growth (YoY), 1990-2017
7.5% 10%
7.0% 8%
6.5% 6%
6.0% 4%
5.5% 2%
5.0% 0%
4.5% -2%
4.0% -4%
3.5%
-6%
3.0%
-8%
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q4 2017. Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Axiometrics, Q4 2017.
7 THINK US cities: Trends and tacticsCapital markets: CRE fairly valued relative to bonds, but spreads declining
Conditions remain healthy despite rising interest rates Property price appreciation is expected to slow
A comparison of real estate yields to 10-year treasury bond yields suggests real National property price indices all reported slowing appreciation returns in 2017.
estate still offers a healthy premium and is fairly priced. The current yield spread Green Street’s unlevered Commercial Property Price Index actually recorded a
remains attractive compared to bonds and sits well above the spreads last seen decline of -1% in 2017. Conversely, NCREIF’s unlevered NPI Index and Real Capital
during the years leading into the GFC. The yield spread to 10-year treasuries was Analytics CPPI Index recorded price gains of 2.2% and 7.1%, respectively, in 2017.
367 bps as of 4Q 2017, which is roughly on par with the average spread of 370 bps
We anticipate cap rates will be flat or modestly higher in 2018 with appreciation
going to back 2002. But recent upward movement in bond yields has caused the
returns being driven by NOI growth rather than a movement in cap rates. Investors
spread to decline in recent months. The yield on the 10-year treasury hit a low of
shouldn’t count on appreciation returns at this point in the real estate cycle and
2.06% in early September 2017, but has since risen by 80 bps to 2.86% as of early
should place greater priority on asset quality and income returns. Recent upward
February 2018. Across property types, US real estate currently yields 5.4% in the
movement in bond yields will put some pressure on cap rates going forward, but our
major metropolitan areas and 6.1% across the country.
expectations are for further economic growth in 2018, supporting net operating
Transaction volumes reached $463.9 billion in 2017, down 7% compared to 2016. income growth and the underlying prices of real estate.
While transaction activity is lower, prices have widely been maintained. At this
stage of the cycle, buyers and sellers are resetting their expectations of future
returns, which has widened the price gap between them. Despite the decline in
volumes from their 2015 peak, 2017 sales still outpaced 2014 volumes and recorded
the fourth highest level over the last 15 years.
Real estate cap rate versus 10-year US Treasury yield Real estate cap rate versus investment grade bond yield
10-Year Treasury Equal Wtd CapRate Moody's Corporate Investment Grade Yield Equal Wtd CapRate
12% 12%
10% 10%
8% 8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
2005
2015
1995
2001
2003
2007
2009
2017
1997
1999
2011
2013
2003
2005
2007
2009
2013
2015
1995
2001
2017
1997
1999
2011
Sources: NCREIF, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody’s Analytics, Q4 2017.
8 THINK US cities: Trends and tacticsCities to watch: Los Angeles
Diversification driver
Tech-tainment takeover Numerous cultures and
backgrounds represented
• Los Angeles took the lead as the largest US commercial real estate
market in 2017 with over $28bn worth of sales transactions Coastal champion
High volume of imports
• As a mega metropolis, the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim MSA is at Port of Los Angeles
home to over 13.5 million residents and Port of Long Beach
• Population in the MSA is expected to growth 0.69% p.a. through
2022 Millennial magnet
Several universities attract
• As a coastal champion, the metro shattered records in 2017 for young and fresh talent
imports at the Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach. Deep
San Pedro Harbor enables metro to handle megaships that other
ports cannot Technology trailblazer
Various tech startup companies
• “Silicon Beach”, comprised of numerous coastal communities along originated in the metro
the Pacific Ocean, is home to more than 500 tech startup
companies
Mega metropolis
• Noticeable evolution from traditional entertainment & media firms Metro area spans
into technology-focused “tech-tainment” firms across over 4,800
square miles
• Various top-tier universities including University of California Los
Angeles, University of Southern California, and California
Continental connected
Institute of Technology attract and retain young and fresh talent
Major airports support
into the area connectivity within
country and other
continents
Culture capital
Global links through
entertainment and fashion
Sources: RCA, ESRI, Moody’s Analytics, TH Real Estate, Q4 2017.
9 THINK US cities: Trends and tacticsCities to watch: Chicago
Diversification driver
The windy education elitist Differentiated employment
base and industries
represented in metro
• Chicago was the fourth largest U.S. commercial real estate market in
2017 with over $17bn worth of sales transactions Education elitist
• Chicago-Naperville-Elgin MSA is home to over 9.8 million residents Home to various top-
tier universities
• Very deep talent pool with well-regarded universities such as
University of Chicago, Northwestern University, and Illinois Institute
of Technology Millennial magnet
Young, highly-educated
• Over 22% of the population over 25 has obtained bachelor’s degree employment base
especially Downtown
• Chicago’s central location and strong rail, road, and air
infrastructure make the market an important Midwestern hub for
industrial users Technology trailblazer
Innovative, talent-rich business
• Easily connected to rest of country. The metro can service nearly and tech hubs
40% of the US population within 2 days
• Several relocations and expansions into city include tech giant Mega metropolis
Siemens with a new digital research and development hub Home to numerous
downtown and online grocer Peapod relocating its headquarters Fortune 500 companies
downtown from suburbs
• Various athletic teams such as NFL’s Chicago Bears, NBA’s Chicago Continental connected
Bulls, MLB’s Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox attract numerous Central location in U.S.
supports connectivity across
visitors to the city each year
country
Tourist trap
Domestic and international
visitors totalled 53.9 million in
2016
Sources: RCA, ESRI, Moody’s Analytics, Green Street Advisors, TH Real Estate, Q4 2017.
10 THINK US cities: Trends and tacticsCities to watch: New York
Diversification driver
Big shifts in the Big Apple Colourful demographics and
various employment
opportunities
• New York is the financial capital of the world with over 590,000
employees in the industry alone Tourist trap
• Manhattan was the second largest U.S. commercial real estate Multiple attractions
market in 2017 with over $23bn worth of sales transactions capture millions of
tourists each year
• New York City MSA has over 20 million residents, with 8.6 million
people in NYC
Millennial magnet
• Welcomed 61.8 million tourists in 2017, a 2% increase from 2016 as Attracts millennials and
well as a new record highly-educated individuals
• There are 33 city-owned cultural institutions and ~200 other
cultural facilities throughout the five boroughs Technology trailblazer
Increasing number of tech start
• Over 38% of population over 25 has obtained a bachelor’s degree or ups becoming rampant across
higher boroughs and metro
• Opening of new “Cornell Tech” campus on Roosevelt Island will Mega metropolis
attract and retain young and fresh innovative talent Suburbs are growing
with a MSA of over 20
• Top employers include: JPMorgan Chase & Co., Mount Sinai Medical million
Center, Macy’s Inc., and Citibank NA
Continental connected
• Upcoming Hudson Yards development will add over 18 million
Three major international
square feet of commercial and residential space to the West Side airports as well as several
major ports
Culture capital
Numerous cultural institutions
and world-class entertainment
selections
Sources: RCA, ESRI, Moody’s Analytics, TH Real Estate, Q4 2017.
11 THINK US cities: Trends and tacticsContact us
Alice Breheny Melissa Reagen Shannon Wright John Philipchuck
Global Head of Research Managing Director, Head of Research, Senior Director, Strategy & Research Director, Strategy & Research
T: +442037278122 Americas T: 212-916-6340 T: 312-507-7523
E: alice.breheny@threalestate.com T: 212-916-6643 E: shannon.wright@threalestate.com E: john.philipchuck@threalestate.com
E: melissa.reagen@threalestate.com
Dominic Toth Sara Rothman Daniel Manware
Research Analyst Research Analyst Research Analyst
T: 212-916-4304 T: 212-916-4281 T: 212-916-6542
E: dominic.toth@threalestate.com E: sara.rothman@threalestate.com E: daniel.manware@threalestate.com
www.threalestate.com
contact@threalestate.com
@THRealEstate14
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relevant covering documents), which will contain investment restrictions, risks and fees. This document is intended as a summary only and potential investors must read the Prospectus or other relevant offering
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Any assumptions made or opinions expressed are as of the dates specified or if none at the document date and may change as subsequent conditions vary. In particular, the document has been prepared by reference
to current tax and legal considerations that may alter in the future.
This document is not directed at or intended for any person (or entity) who is citizen or resident of (or located or established in) any jurisdiction where its use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation [or
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advised by UK regulated subsidiaries or Nuveen Alternatives Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor and wholly owned subsidiary of TIAA, and distributed by Nuveen Securities, LLC, member FINRA.
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