TRENDS Opinion Poll: International Geostrategic & Security Landscape in 2021
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trendsresearch.org
TRENDS Opinion Poll:
International Geostrategic & Security Landscape
in 2021
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Executive Summary
▪ TRENDS Research & Advisory conducted an opinion poll seeking the
views of experts, researchers, and academics from leading think-tanks on
the international geostrategic and security landscape in 2021.
▪ Non-Arab nationalities comprised more than half of the polled sample
with 56.8 percent, while participants from Arab countries were 43.2
percent.
▪ The share of male participants was 68.9 percent, while the female share
was 31.1 percent.
▪ The highest ratio of participation came from the over 50 years age
category, accounting for 29.7 percent. The 30-39 age category was
followed by 27.0 percent, 40-49 years, and 18-29 years, both registering
21.6 percent.
▪ The married participants’ ratio was 54.1 percent, while single participants
registered 43.2 percent. The share of divorced people was 2.7 percent.
▪ The majority of poll participants, 68.9 percent, were post graduate, while
31.1 percent were bachelor’s degree holders.
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Here is a breakdown of their responses:
▪ 37.8 percent of the respondents considered terrorism and extremism among
the most dangerous threats facing the world.
▪ 44.6 percent of respondents believed that the primary trend, which will
define the future of global security, will stem from the transformations in the
balance of global power.
▪ 45.9 percent of respondents said the conflict between superpowers is the
most severe geopolitical risk facing the world in this decade.
▪ 63.5 percent of respondents said the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic
obstructing economic recovery poses the gravest risk.
▪ For 47.3 percent of respondents, the risk facing the oil and gas industry
worldwide leads to demand decline and leads to a sluggish economic
recovery.
▪ 56.8 percent of respondents considered the rapid outbreak of infectious
diseases as the gravest risk affecting world health.
▪ As many as 39.2 percent of respondents said climate policies’ continuous
global discord poses a significant threat.
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▪ 54.1 percent of respondents pointed at the growing security violations due to
an upsurge in the use of modern technology as one of the gravest security
risks.
▪ Modern technology’s social impact was the answer chosen by 37.8 percent
of respondents as the gravest risk.
▪ A large proportion of respondents, 41.9 percent to be precise, said the gravest
job losses and social implications resulting from unemployment are the
biggest challenges related to modern technology, which governments should
handle.
▪ A vast chunk of respondents, 63.5 percent, said the most significant threat
would come from political Islam movements in 2021 as they hamper
peaceful coexistence and tolerance in societies.
▪ For 33.8 percent of respondents, the gravest threat comes from exploiting the
legislative environment to enable political Islam movements to engage in
illegal economic activities.
▪ According to 43.2 percent of respondents, one of the gravest threats facing
social and cultural values is the spread of extremist ideas by political Islam
movements.
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Introduction
From December 27, 2020, to January 10, 2021, TRENDS Research & Advisory
conducted a public opinion poll outlining the international geopolitical and
security landscape in 2021. This was one of a series of polls being conducted
by TRENDS.
A large number of experts and researchers from many think-tanks, universities,
and academic institutions participated in the poll. It tried to foresee the political,
strategic, security, and economic transformations expected in 2021, besides
defining the threats and challenges posed by these transformations.
The poll included many questions seeking to foresee global transformations and
the gravest threats facing their countries. The experts participating in the survey
also shared the main determinants of the future of global security and the nature
of geopolitical risks facing the world in the ongoing decade. They also shared
their views on the nature of the global economy’s challenges following the third
wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, trade war between the US and China, Brexit,
and the nature of the threat facing the oil and gas industry.
The poll also explores its respondents’ views on the threats to nations’ public
health, with the emergence of a new strain of Covid-19, which may be more
dangerous than the first one. The poll also explored views on the environmental
risks due to the persistent global discord about climate policies.
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The poll also included many questions aiming to analyze the growing role of
technology. It sought to recognize the measures that can enhance e-security
amid a rise in cyber-attacks and technology on social aspects, extremism, and
terrorism.
This poll also sought to analyze the perception of experts, researchers, and
academics about political Islam movements, especially the Muslim
Brotherhood, and the nature of the threat they pose. This group is infamous for
its hostile attitude toward the nation-state and has built its economic influence
through unlawful activities. The group also threatens the values of coexistence
and tolerance and fuels the rhetoric of hatred in the countries it operates in.
A total of 318 experts and researchers from various think-tanks, universities,
and academic institutions participated in the survey.
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Poll Objectives
(1) Understanding the views of (2) Identifying the prominent trends
experts, researchers, and academics that will impact the future of global
on the gravest danger facing their security.
countries.
(3) Highlighting the geopolitical risks (4) Exploring the opinion of
the world faces in the coming decade. experts, researchers, and academics
on the gravest danger facing
economic recovery.
(5) Understanding the nature of the (6) Understanding the opinion of
risks facing the oil and gas industry experts, researchers, and academics
worldwide. on the nature of the risks
threatening nations’ public health.
(7) Identifying the gravest dangers (8) Documenting the opinion of
threatening the environment in 2021. experts, researchers, and academics
on the security threats posed by the
growing use of modern technology
in the business sector.
(9) Identifying the main risks and (10) Analyzing the perception of
challenges related to modern experts, researchers, and academics
technology, which should be handled on political Islam movements in
by governments. 2021.
(11) Defining the nature of the threat
posed by political Islam movements
on national economies, social, and
cultural values.
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Methodology
Polled Sample: The sample Questionnaire Design: The questionnaire was
consists of experts and researchers prepared to explore the participants’ opinions on the
associated with various think- international geostrategic and security landscape, in
tanks, universities, and academic 2021 (in English).
institutions.
Data Collection: Data collection Choosing the Sample: The snow-ball technique
was done through electronic was used due to the difficulty in contacting the
means. The questionnaire was also targeted sample. A special link was sent to experts
posted on the TRENDS website. and researchers from various think-tanks,
universities, and academic institutions, whose data
is available at TRENDS. We requested these experts
to share the link with others in the same categories.
We managed to reach 318 people, with an error
margin of 5 percent (plus/minus).
Poll Duration: Data was collected Data Analysis: Data was analyzed using statistical
between December 27, 2020, and programs Excel & SPSS, precision and data
January 10, 2021. processing. Tables, graphs, and statistical reports
were also produced using these programs.
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Sample Distribution by Country
United Arab Emirates 23.0%
USA 10.8%
Italy 8.1%
Egypt 6.8%
Jordan 6.8%
UK 5.4%
Bangladesh 4.1%
Israel 4.1%
Kuwait 2.7%
Brazil 2.7%
Turkey 2.7%
Greece 2.7%
India 2.7%
Saudi Arabia Kingdom 1.4%
Iraq 1.4%
Sweden 1.4%
Syria 1.4%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.4%
Holland 1.4%
France 1.4%
Iran Islamic Republic 1.4%
Germany 1.4%
Australia 1.4%
Armenia 1.4%
Indonesia 1.4%
Spain 1.4%
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Sample Distribution by Gender
68.9% 31.1%
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Sample Distribution by Age
29.7%
27.1%
21.6% 21.6%
18 - 29 30 - 39 40 - 49 50+
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Sample Distribution by Marital Status
3%
Single
Married
43%
Divorced
54%
Sample Distribution by Education Qualification
Bachelor BA
31.1%
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Key Findings
Question 1: What is the gravest risk facing your country?
Researchers, experts, and academics were
asked this direct question to understand
their perceptions on their countries’
gravest threats. The results suggested that
32.4 percent believe that terrorism and
37.8%
extremism are among the gravest threats
32.4%
facing their countries. Meanwhile, 21.6
percent voted for climate change as the
21.6%
gravest threat. A low proportion of
researchers (8.1 percent) believed that
China’s power and influence worldwide 8.1%
is one of the gravest threats facing their
countries. As many as 37.8 of researchers Other Threats Terrorism & Climate China Power &
Extremism Change Influence
said there are other threats facing their
countries.
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According to the survey, 39 percent of female
researchers believe terrorism and extremism
is the gravest threat facing countries,
compared to 29.5 percent of males. Twenty-
45.0%
six percent of female respondents highlighted 39.0%
the danger of climate change compared to
29.5%
19.5 percent of male respondents. 26.0%
22.0%
19.5%
On the subject of China’s power and
influence, 13 percent of female respondents 13.0%
5.9%
considered the country a threat facing their
countries, compared to 5.9 percent of males. Male Female
A total of 45 percent of male researchers Terrorism & Extremism Climate Change
believed other threats are facing their China Power & Influence Other Threats
countries, compared to 22.0 percent of
females.
Among age categories, the survey findings
show that respondents between 18-29 believe
climate change and China’s power and OVER 50 17.9% 27.4% 9.5% 45.3%
YEARS
influence are the gravest dangers facing their
countries, with 18.8 percent choosing both. 62.3% 13.0% 24.6%
40 – 49
While 13.0 percent believe that the threat of
terrorism and extremism is the gravest, 49.3
39.5% 25.6% 4.7% 30.2%
percent believe other threats are facing their 30 – 39
countries.
13.0% 18.8% 18.8% 49.3%
18 – 29
In the 30-39 age category, 39.5 percent viewed
terrorism and extremism as the gravest threat Terrorism & Extremism Climate Change
facing their countries, followed by climate China Power & Influence Other Threats
change with 25.6 percent. A low proportion in
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this category (4.7 percent) view China’s power and influence as the gravest threat, while
30.2 percent in this category highlighted other dangers.
More than half of the respondents (62.3 percent) in the 40-49 age category believed that
terrorism and extremism are among the gravest threats, while 13.0 percent said climate
change is the gravest threat facing their countries. Around a quarter of respondents (24.6
percent) said there are other threats.
Among the 50 years plus age category, 45.3 percent believed there are threats other than
terrorism facing their countries, such as extremism, climate change, and China’s power and
influence.
Among post-graduate degree holders, 35.2
percent believe that the threat of terrorism and 39.3%
extremism could be the gravest for their 7.8%
Post
countries, while 17.8 percent of them thought Graduate 17.8%
climate change was the most threatening. A 35.2%
low percentage voted for China’s power and
influence as the gravest threat, while 39.3 in 34.3%
9.1%
this category believed in other threats. Bachelor (BA) 30.3%
26.3%
Among the bachelor’s degree holders, their
countries’ threat perception was as follows:
30.3 percent climate change, 26.3 percent
Other Threats China Power & Influence
terrorism and extremism, 9.1 percent China’s
Climat Change Terrorism & Extremism
power and influence, and 34.3 percent other
threats.
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Question 2: What is the primary trend that defines the future of global
security?
This question was meant to identify the
primary trend that can define the future of
global security from the perspective of experts
and researchers. The survey findings showed
that 44.6 percent of respondents believed that 39.2%
44.6%
the changes taking place in the global balance
of power would define the future of
international security. The technology 6.8% 9.5%
advancement came second with a ratio of 39.2 Other Trends Increased Accelerated Changes in
proliferation Technology global
percent. In comparison, only 9.5 percent of of Weapons Advance balance of
respondents viewed the rise of weapons of of Mass Power
Destruction
mass destruction as the trend, which will
define the future of global security.
Around half (47.0 percent) of males
identified the changes in the global balance
of power as the primary trend that will define 47.0%
the future of international security, compared 41.1% 39.4%
to 39.4 of female participants. As many as 34.3%
41.1 of male researchers believe that rapid
technological progress is the main trend that
will define the future of global security, while 17.2%
9.1%
34.3 of females believe the same. 5.9% 5.9%
Male Female
The proliferation of weapons of mass Accelerated Technology Advance
Changes in the balance of global power
destruction was viewed by 17.2 percent of Increased prliferation in the Weapons of Mass destruction
females as the factor that will define the Other Trends
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future of global security, compared to only 5.9 percent of male respondents holding the
same view.
In the 18-29 age category, 49.3 percent
said a shift in the global balance of power
27.4% 41.1% 17.9% 13.7%
would define the future of global 50 YEARS +
security. The rapid technology progress
44.1% 50.0% 5.9%
came second with 31.9 percent. In 40 – 49
comparison, a low percentage (5.8
55.3% 40.0% 4.7%
percent) view the increasing proliferation 30 – 39
of weapons of mass destruction as the
31.9% 49.3% 5.8% 13.0%
trend that will define the future of global 18 – 29
security.. A significate 13.0 percent Accelerated Technology Progress
pointed at other trends. Transformations in the balance of global power
Increased proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction
More than half (55.3 percent) of Other Trends
respondents in the 30-39 years age group
believe that rapid technological advancement will define the future of global security. A
total of 40.0 percent of researchers said that the transformations in the balance of global
power would define the future of global security.
Those in the 40-49 age group believed that a transformation in the global balance of power
and rapidly growing technology would be the main trends defining the future of
international security, with the ratio being 50.0 percent and 44.1 percent, respectively. A
total of 41.1 percent of respondents in the same age category said the transformations in
the global balance of power would define the future of international security. This was
followed by those who chose technological advancement (27.4 percent) and the
proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (17.9 percent).
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The findings showed that 46.8 percent of
post-graduates believed a change in the
global balance of power would define the
future of global security, compared to 39.0 Post
43.2% 46.8% 4.1%
5.9%
Graduate
percent among graduates. Degrees
A rapid rise in technology came second
(43.2 percent) among post-graduates,
Bachelor
while it was 30 percent among graduates (BA
30.0% 39.0% 22.0% 9.0%
say. Finally, the proliferation of weapons Holders)
of mass destruction came in third place,
with 22.0 percent among bachelor degree
Accelerating technology Progress
holders and 4.1 percent among post-
Transformations in Balance of Global Power
graduates. Increaseing Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
Other Trends
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Question 3: What is the gravest geopolitical risk facing the world in the
coming decade?
The poll’s findings showed that 45.9 percent
of researchers believe that wars and conflicts
45.9%
among superpowers will be the gravest
geopolitical risk to the world in the coming 31.1%
decade. The erosion of state sovereignty
comes in next with 31.3 percent. 20.3%
2.7%
Meanwhile, 20.3 percent of respondents said Wars & Erosion of Weakened Other risks
Conflicts state regional
weakened regional coalitions would be the among super sovereignty coalitions
powers
gravest geopolitical risk facing the world in
the coming decade. Only 2.7 mentioned other
geopolitical risks.
The findings showed that 49.1 percent of male
respondents believe that wars and conflicts
49.1%
among superpowers will be the gravest risk. In 43.4%
comparison, 43.4 percent of females pointed 39.4%
at the erosion of state sovereignty as the
gravest risk. 25.5%
21.4%
17.2%
4.1%
Male Female
Wars & Conflicta among super powers
Erosion of state sovereignty
Weakened regional coalitions
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More than half of respondents (62.3
percent) in the 40-49 years age group said
the gravest geopolitical risk comes from 50 YEARS + 45.7% 31.9% 18.1% 4.3%
wars and conflicts among superpowers.
Members of the 30-39 years age group and 40 – 49 62.3% 18.8% 18.8%
50 years plus agreed with that view, with
45.3 percent and 45.7 percent respectively. 30 – 39 45.3% 34.9% 19.8%
Meanwhile, 37.7 percent of respondents 18 – 29 31.9% 37.7% 24.6% 5.8%
belonging to the 18-29 age group believe
that the erosion of state sovereignty will be Wars & conflicts among super powers
Erosion of state sovereignty
the gravest geopolitical risk in the coming
Weakened regional coalitions
decade. Other Risks
All age categories agree with the view that
weakened regional coalitions come in the
second position as the geopolitical danger. 49.1%
The findings showed a consensus among 39.4%
30.3%
respondents holding bachelor degrees and 31.4%
post-graduates on the subject of conflict 26.3% 17.7%
among major powers as the gravest
geopolitical risk. Around half of the post-
4.0% 1.8%
graduates (49.1 percent to be precise) and BA holders Post Graduate degrees
39.4 percent holding bachelor’s degrees Wars & conflicts among super powers
chose this option. Erosion in state sovereignty
Weakened regional coalitions
The erosion of state sovereignty came in Other Risks
second, while the third rank went to the risk of weakened regional coalitions.
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Question 4: What is the gravest danger facing economic recovery?
When asked about their opinion on the 63.5%
economic recovery, more than half of
respondents (63.5 percent) said the third
wave of the Covid-19 pandemic would be
the greatest obstacle to the economic
recovery worldwide. A small percentage
believed that Brexit and the trade war
between the US and China would be the 14.9%
two greatest threats obstructing global 10.8% 10.8%
economic recovery, with 10.8 percent
pointing to both. Findings also showed
Trade discord UK exit from EU Other Risks Third wave of
that 14.9 percent of researchers believe between US & and ultra- Covid-19
other risks face the global economic China nationalistic pandemic
agenda
recovery.
More than two-thirds of the female
respondents (86.9 percent) said the third 86.9%
wave of Covid-19 would be the gravest
danger facing economic recovery, while
53.0%
only 53.0 percent of male members
expressed this opinion.
Findings also showed 15.5 percent of 11.9% 19.6%
15.5% 9.1% 4.0%
men believing that trade discord between
Male Female
the US and China might pose a risk to Third wave of Covid-19 pandemic
Trade discord between US & China
global economic recovery. UK exit from EU and the ultranationalistic agenda
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Among the different age groups, a large
majority said the third wave of Covid-19
50 YEARS + 63.2% 9.5% 9.5% 17.9%
could be the gravest danger to the global
economy and obstruct its recovery, with
40 – 49 56.5% 24.6% 5.8% 13.0%
69.1 percent belonging to the 18-29 age
group. As many as 65.1 percent of 10.5%
30 – 39 65.1% 4.7% 19.8%
respondents between 30-39 years, 63.2
percent were 50 years plus, and 56.5 percent
18 – 29 69.1% 5.9% 19.1% 5.9%
among the 40-49 years age category held
this view. Third wave of Covid-19 pandemic
Trade discord between US & China
UK exit from EU and the ultranationalistic agenda
Other Risks
More than half of respondents (64.5
percent post-graduates and 60.6 percent 70.0%
graduates) believe that the danger of the
60.0%
third wave of Covid-19 will be the gravest
50.0%
danger facing global economic recovery. 60.6% 64.5%
40.0%
Meanwhile, a low percentage of 30.0%
graduates (13.1 percent) believe that trade 20.0%
discord between the US and China might
10.0% 9.1% 17.2% 10.0%
11.8% 13.6%
threaten the global economic recovery. 13.1%
0.0%
However, 11.8 percent among post- BA holders Post Graduate Degrees
graduates believe that Brexit will hamper Third wave of Covid-19 pandemic
Trade discord between US & China
global economic recovery. UK exit from EU and the ultranatuionalistic agenda
Other Risks
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Question 5: What is the gravest danger facing the oil & gas industry?
Seeking to understand the most critical risks
facing the oil and gas industry worldwide,
TRENDS asked this direct question. The poll 47.3%
outcome suggests that around half of
respondents (47.3 percent) believe in the
continuation of low oil and gas demand and a
27.0%
sluggish economic recovery. Meanwhile, 27.0 20.3%
percent of respondents said that implementing 5.4%
strict rules related to the exploration and Continuance Collapse of Issuing more Othr Risks
production of oil and gas worldwide would of low OPEC + strict rules
demand and Agreement for
threaten the industry. sluggish for exploration
recovery production and
Only 20.3 percent of respondents considered cut production of
the collapse of the OPEC agreement and oil oil & gas
and gas production cut as a danger to the
industry worldwide.
More than half of male respondents (57.1
percent) expect a continuation of low oil and 57.1%
gas demand and a sluggish economic recovery
39.4%
as the gravest danger facing the oil and gas 30.3%
industry. More than a third of female 21.5% 26.3%
respondents (39.4 percent) expect the strict 15.5%
5.9% 4.0%
exploration and production rules as a threat to
Male Female
the industry. Continuance of low demand and sluggish recovery
Collapse of OPEC agreement and production cut
Issuing more rules for exploration and production of oil & gas
Other Risks
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Findings also showed that among the
respondents in the 30-39 age group, 65.1
Holders of 7.8%
percent agree that a continued low oil and gas post 21.5%
graduate 13.7%
demand and the sluggishness of economic degrees 57.1%
recovery are the gravest dangers facing the oil
and gas industry.
BA 39.4%
It was 56.5 percent among the 40-49 years age holders 34.3%
26.3%
group, and 44.8 percent among the 50 years plus
category. Half of the respondents between 18- Other Risks
29 believe that strict rules related to oil and gas Issuing strict rules for exploration and production of oil & gas
Collapse of OPEC agreement and production cut
exploration and production will be the danger
Continuance of low demand on oil & gas and sluggish recovery
facing this industry.
Findings showed that more than half of post-
graduate respondents (57.1 percent) believe that 50 YEARS 44.8% 22.9% 22.9% 9.4%
+
a low oil and gas demand and a sluggish
economic recovery are the most critical dangers 40 – 49 56.5% 18.8% 18.8% 5.8%
facing the oil and gas industry.
65.1% 15.1% 19.8%
Meanwhile, 39.4 percent of graduates believe 30 – 39
that strict rules related to oil and gas exploration
18 – 29 19.1% 25.0% 50.0% 5.9%
and production will be the gravest threat facing
the oil and gas industry, followed by the risk of Continuance of low demand on oil & gas
Collapse of OPEC agreement and production cut
the collapse of the OPEC agreement and the oil Issuing strict rules for exploration and production of oil & gas
and gas production cut at 34.3 percent. Other Risks
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Question 6: What is the gravest danger for world health?
When we asked the respondents about their
views on the risks facing global health, the
findings showed 56.8 percent believe that
the rapid spread of infectious diseases will
56.8%
be the gravest danger threatening global
health. In comparison, 20.3 percent believe 20.3%
the outbreak of an advanced coronavirus 14.9%
8.1%
strain might pose a real threat. Only 14.9 Outbreak of Effects of Spread of Other Risks
advanced Covid-19 infectious
percent considered the effects of Covid-19 more pandemic on diseases in a
on mental health as a significant risk for dangerous mental health higher speed
strain than
world health. A somewhat small percentage Covid-19
coronavirus
of researchers (8.1 percent) said there are
other risks threatening world health.
Findings show that more than half of
58.6%
respondents (58.6 percent among males and
52.5 percent among females) believe that the 52.5%
rapid spread of infectious diseases worldwide
poses the gravest threat to world health.
26.3%
While 21.4 percent of men believed the 21.4%
outbreak of an advanced strain of coronavirus 10.0%
17.2%
4.0%
10.0%
could be more dangerous than the previous
Male Female
one might endanger world health, 26.3 Outbreak of advanced strain of coronavirus more dangerous
than the previous one
percent of females said Covid-19 could have Effects of Covid-19 on World Health
a severe effect on world health. Spread of infectious diseases in a higher speed
Pther Risks
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Among age groups, many respondents believe
that the fast spread of infectious diseases
50 23.2% 4.2% 63.2% 9.5%
worldwide is the gravest threat to world health. YEARS +
This was the view of more than half of
40 – 49 37.7% 5.8% 56.5%
respondents among all age categories.
30 – 39 15.1% 15.1% 50.0% 19.8%
A high percentage of post-graduate respondents
(60.5 percent) said the fast spread of infectious 5.8% 37.7% 56.5%
18 – 29
diseases worldwide poses the gravest risk to
Outbreak of advanced strain of coronavirus more dangerous than the
global health. In comparison, 47.5 percent of previous one
Effects of Covid-19 on mental Health
graduates held the same view.
Spread of infectious diseases in a higher speed
Other Risks
Among post-graduate respondents, 19.5 percent
said the outbreak of an advanced coronavirus
strain could prove to be more dangerous than
60.5%
the previous one. Among graduates, 26.3
percent believed Covid-19’s impact on mental
47.5%
health would be a challenge.
26.3%
19.5%
22.2% 4.0% 10.0% 10.0%
BA holders Post graduate degrees
Outbreak of advanced strain of coronavirus more dangerous than the
previous wave
Effects of Covid-19 on mental health
Spread of infectious diseases in a higher speed
Other Risks
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Question 7: What is the gravest danger facing the environment?
To identify the dangers facing the
environment, TRENDS asked the
respondents this direct question. 39.2%
More than one-third of the respondents (39.2
percent) said continuing global discord on 35.1%
23.0%
climate policies remains the gravest danger
facing the environment.
Meanwhile, 35.1 percent of respondents said 2.7%
the scarcity of water in developing countries Degrading Continuance Scarcity of Other Risks
climate issues of global water in
is a serious threat, while 23.0 percent said the to a secondary discord about developing
global focus on economic recovery had rank for the climate countries
sake of policies
reduced attention to climate issues, economic
recovery
threatening the environment in the future.
Among female respondents, 47.5 percent
believe that a continuing global discord on
47.5%
climate policies forms the environment’s
37.3%
gravest danger, while 30.3 percent women
35.0%
respondents pointed to the scarcity of water 30.3%
in developing countries. The lack of 23.6% 22.2%
attention to climate issues due to greater
focus on economic recovery came third 4.1%
(22.2 percent) as the source of danger for Male Female
environment. Degrading climate issued to a secondary rank for the sake of economic recovery
Continuance of global discord about climate policies
Meanwhile, 37.3 percent of male
Scarcity of water in developing countries
respondents believe water scarcity in
Other Risks
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developing countries is the gravest danger for the environment. The second place (35.0
percent) went to the global discord over climate policies, and 23.6 percent said the focus
on economic recovery at the expense of climate issues is the most severe threat.
More than half of respondents (56.5 percent)
in the 18-29 age category said the global 50 YEARS 18.1% 31.9% 45.7% 4.3%
discord over climate policies is the gravest +
danger facing the environment. As many as 40 – 49 31.9% 24.6% 43.5%
45.3 percent of respondents belonging to the
30-39 years age group held the same view. The 30 – 39 19.8% 45.3% 30.2% 4.7%
50 years plus group of respondents (45.7
18 – 29 24.6% 56.5% 18.8%
percent) said the gravest danger for the
environment comes from the water scarcity in Degrading climate issues to a secondary rank for the sake of economic recovery
Continuance of global discord about climate policies
developing countries. 43.5 percent of
Scarcity of water in developing countries
respondents in the 40-49 age group supported Other Risks
this view.
Among graduate respondents, 43.9 percent
said the environment’s gravest danger is the
continued global discord over climate 43.9%
37.4%
policies, while 37.4 percent post-graduates 35.2%
34.7%
said the same. The risk of water scarcity in
25.6%
developing countries came next as the danger
facing the environment, according to 35.2
17.3%
percent post-graduates and 34.7 percent 4.1%
1.8%
graduates. BA holders Post graduate degrees
Degrading climate issues to a secondary rank for the sake of economic recovery
Continuance of global discord about climate policies
Scarcity of water in developing countries
Other Risks
28trendsresearch.org
Question 8: The use of new technology in the business sector requires
rigorous security measures. Which of the following will pose a greater
security risk?
Respondents of the survey were asked about
security risks resulting from the increasing
use of new technology in the business sector.
54.1%
A majority of respondents (54.1 percent) said
the growing instances of security violations
pose the highest risk. Twenty-seven percent
27.0%
of respondents believe that a lack of
experience among technology sector
workers poses a risk. The remaining 18.9%
respondents in this category said confidence Lack of security Increasing Issues of
experience security confidence
among technology sector workers is the violations
source of security risk.
Many females (65.0 percent) said increasing
security violations due to increasing
technology usage in the business sector 65.0%
poses a high-security risk. In contrast, only
49.1%
49.1 percent of males agreed with this
conclusion. The lack of security experience
23.6%
among technology workers came in second 27.3% 26.0%
with 27.3 percent among males and 26.0 9.0%
percent among females. Males Females
The issues of confidence among workers in Lack od security experience Increasing security violations
the technology sector resulting from growing Issues of confidence
29trendsresearch.org
security violations were acknowledged by 23.6 percent male and 9.0 percent female
respondents.
Security violations in technology sector
were seen as the highest security risk
50 YEARS 18.1% 50.0% 31.9%
among all age categories, with ratios PLUS
ranging from 43.5 percent to 69.8 percent.
31.9% 43.5% 24.6%
The lack of security experience among 40 – 49
technology sector workers was the second
most chosen option among 44.1 percent 30 – 39
19.8% 69.8% 10.5%
respondents in the 18-29 age category, 19.8
percent in the 30-39 years category, and 18 – 29
44.1% 50.0% 5.9%
31.9 percent in the 40-49 years age group.
31.9 percent of respondents over the age of
50 considered confidence among Lack of security experience Increasing security violations
technology sector workers in the second Issues of confidence
place.
As per the polled researchers’ education
level, findings reveal that over half of
respondents believe that growing security 56.6%
violations in the technology sector pose a 53.0%
significant risk. This was the view of 56.6
percent of bachelor degree holders and 30.3%
53.0 percent among post-graduates. 33.3%
The second factor seen as a security risk for 13.7%
13.1%
technology sector is confidence among
technology sector workers, as stated by BA holders Post graduate degrees
30.3 percent among graduates. Meanwhile, Lack of security experience Increasing security violations
33.3 percent post-graduates consider this a Issues of confidence
high-security threat.
30trendsresearch.org
Question 9: What is the gravest risk endangering the future of
technology?
Respondents were asked about their
views on what constitutes a high risk for
the future of modern technology. A total
of 37.8 percent of respondents said that 37.8%
social upheaval poses the gravest danger 33.8%
to technology’s future as it disrupts
societies and weakens social cohesion.
Meanwhile, 33.8 percent said a rapidly 28.4%
transforming technology leads to
security violations targeting individual
privacy and therefore mars technology’s
future.
Another 28.4 percent said technology Social rupture Concerns about Crime &
privacy Twerrorism
facilitates the spread of extremism in
society.
31trendsresearch.org
On the gender scale, 39.3 percent of males
said that social issues caused by modern
technology pose the gravest danger, 39.3%
followed by 33.3 percent expressing 33.3% 34.7% 34.7%
27.4% 30.6%
concerns over violations of personal
privacy.
As many as 27.4 percent of male
respondents said technology’s role in
spreading crime and terrorism is a grave
threat. Male Female
Findings also showed that 34.7 percent of
females believe that the top risks facing Social rupture Concerns about privacy Crime & Twerrorism
modern technology are the social
concerns related to personal privacy
violation. In comparison, 30.6 percent of them said that crime and terrorism pose a major
threat to technology’s future.
Going by age groups, 55.7 percent of
respondents in the 18-29 years age
category referred to concerns related to
50 YEARS 49.5% 23.2% 27.4%
privacy as the gravest risk facing the +
future of technology. 39.5 percent
24.6% 31.9% 43.5%
40 – 49
respondents belonging to the 30-39
age group and 49.5 percent among 50
39.5% 30.2% 30.2%
30 – 39
years plus category agreed with the
view that a lack of social cohesion
31.4% 55.7% 12.9%
18 – 29
resulting from the widespread use of
technology poses a grave danger. As
many as 43.5 percent of those
Social rupture Concerns about privacy Crime & Terrorism
belonging to the 40-49 years age group
32trendsresearch.org
said crime and terrorism pose the gravest risk to the technology’s future.
The survey also revealed that 43.4 percent of respondents believe that the gravest danger
facing the future of modern technology is social upheaval.
Concerns about the violation of privacy
came second, among 39.4 percent, while its
influence on crime and terrorism came in
43.4%
third place, with 17.2 percent. While the 39.4% 35.2% 33.3%
31.5%
holders of post-graduate degrees believe
that social challenges came first (35.2
percent), crime and terrorism (33.3 17.2%
percent), and privacy concerns were
acknowledged by 31.5 percent.
BA holders Post graduate degrees
Social rupture Concerns about privacy Crime & Terrorism
33trendsresearch.org
Question 10: What are the main risks and challenges related to modern
technology that governments should handle?
This question was meant to get the
respondents’ views on the challenges
related to modern technology, which should
be handled by governments. The findings
showed that 41.9 percent of respondents
considered the loss of jobs resulting from
41.9%
the development of technology and their 33.8% 24.3%
social fallout on rising unemployment
among the gravest challenges that
governments should handle. Meanwhile,
33.8 percent of researchers consider
Penetrating vital Loss of jobs and Threats against
penetrations of the vital infrastructure infrastructure consequent social national security
impacts
resulting from the developments in
technology as one of the major challenges that should be handled. A relatively low
percentage of researchers (24.3 percent), consider the threat posed by technology to
national security as the most pressing challenge that governments should handle.
34trendsresearch.org
Among male respondents, 47.0 percent said
job losses should be the most significant
challenge handled by governments,
followed by 31.5 percent pointing at the risk 47.0%
posed to nations’ vital infrastructure. 39.4%
Another 21.5 percent of respondents 30.3%
31.5% 30.3%
considered a threat against national security 21.5%
as the most significant challenge. In
contrast, 39.4 percent of female respondents
considered the threat to vital infrastructure
as one of the gravest difficulties Males Females
Penetrating the vital infrastructure
governments should handle. This was
Loss of jobs and the consequent social impacts
followed by 30.3 percent considering
Threat against national security
technology-related job losses as the biggest
threat against national security.
Among the 18-29 age category, 43.5
percent said the risk faced by vital
50
infrastructure is one of the gravest YEARS 23.2% 49.5% 27.4%
challenge’s governments should handle. PLUS
Respondents in the 40-49 years age 40 – 49 43.5% 37.7% 18.8%
category also agreed with this view, while
30.2% 50.0% 19.8%
respondents in the 30-39 years age category 30 – 39
and those above 50 years said the risk of job
43.5% 24.6% 31.9%
losses due to technological advancement 18 – 29
and its social impact is one of the gravest
Penetrating vital infrastructure
social challenges that should be handled by
Loss of jobs and the resulting social impacts
governments. Threat against national security
35trendsresearch.org
A high ratio (56.0 percent) among holders of
bachelor’s degrees said the risk of job losses is
one of the crucial challenges that governments
should handle. 56.0%
Meanwhile, 39.3 percent post-graduates said 39.3%
the threat to vital infrastructure due to the wide 35.2%
22.0% 25.6%
use of technology is one of the most crucial 22.0%
challenges.
BA holders Post graduate degrees
Penetrating vital infrastructure
Loss of jobs and the consequent social impacts
Threat against national security
36trendsresearch.org
Question 11: What is the most crucial threat from political Islam
movements in 2021?
Respondents were asked to define the most
crucial threat created by political Islam
movements in 2021. The common belief
among 63.5 percent of them was that the 63.5%
threat against the values of peaceful
coexistence and tolerance in societies was the
gravest threat that could be created by 14.9% 10.8%
10.8%
political Islam movements in 2021. Threat against Threat against Violating state Other Threats
Meanwhile, a low percentage of respondents Nation-State Values of sovereignty
peaceful
said the threat against the nation-state would coexistence
and tolerance
be the main threat from political Islam in in societies
2021.
More than two-thirds of females (77.8
percent) said the threat against the values of 77.8%
peaceful coexistence and tolerance would be
56.8%
the gravest threat created by political Islam
movements in 2021, while the ratio among
males was 56.8 percent. 17.7% 13.6%
11.8% 9.1% 9.1% 4.0%
Males Females
Threat against Nation-State
Threat against values of peaceful coexistence and tolearance
Violating state-sovereignty
Other Threats
37trendsresearch.org
In the 18-29 age category, 81.2 percent said
the threat against the values of peaceful
50 YEARS 13.5% 54.2% 9.4% 22.9%
coexistence and tolerance in societies is the +
gravest threat that comes from political 24.6% 49.3% 13.0% 13.0%
40 – 49
Islam movements in 2021. It was followed
4.7%
by the 30-39 years age group in which 70.6 30 – 39 20.0% 70.6% 4.7%
percent held the same view. The percentage 81.2% 18.8%
18 – 29
was 54.2 in the 50 years plus age category
and 49.3 percent in the 40-49 years age Threat against Nation-State
Threat against values of peaceful coexistence & tolerance
group. Violating state-sovereignty
Other Threats
As many as 69.0 percent bachelor’s degree
holders said the gravest threat from political
Islam movements in 2021 is the threat 69.0%
against the values of peaceful coexistence 60.5%
and tolerance in societies, while 60.5
percent of post-graduates believed the 13.0%
17.7% 11.8% 10.0%
same. 9.0% 9.0%
BA holders Post graduate degrees
Threat against Nation-State
Threat against values of peaceful coexistence & Tolerance
Violating state-sovereignty
Other Threats
38trendsresearch.org
Question 12: What is the nature of the threat posed by political Islam
movements against nations’ economies?
Asked about the threat posed by political
Islam movements against economies, 33.8
percent of respondents said that these groups
33.8%
exploit an open legislative environment to 29.7%
engage in illegal economic activities, which
poses a grave threat to nations’ economies.
Meanwhile, 29.7 percent of them said the
28.4%
most crucial threat created by political Islam 8.1%
movements is their constant efforts to
Destabilizing Establishing Exploiting Other Threat
destabilize the nations’ economies. National parallel legislative
Economies economies environment
Likewise, 28.4 percent of respondents to engage in
consider establishing parallel economies as illegal
economic
one of the gravest threats against nations’ activities
economies.
39trendsresearch.org
Findings also showed that 48.0 percent of
female respondents consider exploiting the 48.0%
legislative environment by political Islam
groups to engage in illegal economic
activities as one of the most crucial threats 34.7%
35.2%
facing nations’ economies, followed by 27.4%
27.4%
34.7 percent pointing toward a destabilizing
national economy as the gravest threat.
Meanwhile, 35.2 percent of male 10.0%
13.3%
4.1%
respondents labeled parallel economies as
one of the gravest threats against nations’ Males Females
economies. This was followed by 27.4
Destabilizing national economies
percent, considering exploiting the
Establishing parallel economies
legislative environment to engage in illegal
Exploiting legislative environment to engage into illegal
economic activities as a more potent threat. economic activities
Other Threats
Among respondents from the 18-29 years age
category, 55.7 percent said exploiting the open
legislative environment to engage in illegal
50 18.1% 36.2% 31.9% 13.8%
economic activities was one of the most YEARS +
crucial threats against national economies.
40 – 49 43.5% 18.8% 31.9% 5.8%
A total of 45.3 percent respondents in the 30-
39 age categories and 43.5 percent in the 40- 45.3% 34.9% 19.8%
30 – 39
49 age group considered actions by political
Islam movements to destabilize national 12.9% 18.6% 55.7% 12.9%
18 – 29
economies as one of the gravest threats.
Among the 50 plus age category, 36.2 percent Destabilizing national economies
said parallel economies are among the most
Establishing parallel economies
crucial threats against national economies.
40trendsresearch.org
Among holders of bachelor degrees, 39.0
percent said that exploiting legislative
39.0%
environment by political Islam movements to
engage in illegal economic activities is one of 31.4%
30.0%
29.5%
the gravest threats to national economies. 31.4%
This was followed by 30.0 percent, pointing
9.0%
toward the danger of destabilizing national 22.0%
7.7%
economies.
Holders of post-graduate degrees said BA holders Post graduate degrees
exploiting the legislative environment by
political Islam movements and establishing Destabilizing national economies
parallel economies are two of the gravest Establishing parallel economies
threats, with 31.4 percent opting for both Exploiting the legislative environment to engage into illegal economic activities
indicators. In comparison, 29.5 percent chose Other Threats
the danger of destabilizing national
economies.
41trendsresearch.org
Question 13: What is the nature of the threat posed by political Islam
movements against social and cultural values?
When asked about the nature of the
threat posed by political Islam
movements against social and cultural 43.2%
values, 43.2 percent of respondents said 33.8%
the spreading of extremist ideas by these
movements is one of the gravest threats
against social and cultural values. 14.9% 8.1%
Meanwhile, 33.8 percent of respondents
said the most crucial threat comes from Spreading Hatred speech Brainwashing Other Threats
extreme ideas of young
the brainwashing of young people. people
Another 14.9 percent of respondents
considered hate speech as the gravest
threat.
Among females (47.5 percent) considered
brainwashing of young people by these
movements as one of the most critical threats 47.5%
45.0%
against social and cultural values, followed by 39.4%
39.4 percent pointing at the danger of
27.3%
spreading extremist ideas.
Responding to the same question, 45.0 17.7% 10.0%
percent of males consider spreading extremist 9.1%
4.0%
ideas by political Islam movements as one of
Males Females
the gravest threats against social and cultural
Spreading extremist ideas Hatred speech
values, followed by 27.3 percent pointing
toward the danger of brainwashing of young Brainwashing of young people Other Threats
people.
42trendsresearch.org
As per age categories, 62.3 percent between
18-29 years said extremist ideas by political
50 36.2% 9.6% 36.2% 18.1%
Islam movements are among the gravest YEARS +
threats against social and cultural values, 37.7% 18.8% 37.7% 5.8%
40 – 49
followed by 39.5 percent in the 30-39 years
age group expressing the same view. 30 – 39 39.5% 25.6% 30.2% 4.7%
18 – 29 62.3% 5.8% 31.9%
Spreading extremist ideas Hatred speech
Brainwashing of young people Other Threats
More than half (52.0 percent) of those
holding bachelor’s degrees said spreading
extremist ideas by these movements is one 52.0%
of the gravest threats against social and 39.3% 37.4%
cultural values, followed by 26.0 percent 26.0%
9.0%
suggesting the danger of brainwashing of 13.0% 15.5% 7.8%
young people. Among post-graduates, 39.3 BA holders Post graduate degrees
percent held the same view.
Spreading extremist ideas Hatred speech
Brainwashing of young people Other Threats
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