Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond - Acknowledgements Lead Authors: Erica Orange & Jared Weiner Editorial Team: Eshanthi Ranasinghe - Omidyar Network
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Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond Acknowledgements — Lead Authors: Erica Orange & Jared Weiner Editorial Team: Eshanthi Ranasinghe
A Mental Health Depression and anxiety in particular
are increasing rapidly, with much still
clinically under- and undiagnosed. This
Pandemic: Is the
pattern is persistent around the world.
The World Economic Forum estimated
that direct and indirect costs of men-
tal health amount to over 4 percent
World Getting More of global GDP, more than the cost of
cancer, diabetes, and chronic respira-
tory disease combined. This could cost
Addicted, Anxious,
the global economy up to $16 trillion
between 2010 and 2030 if a collective
failure to respond is not addressed.
Some of this global rise could be
and Lonely? attributed to spreading norms around
treatment; but hypotheses persist that
mental health of global populations
is increasingly at risk, in part due to
a confluence of societal factors, such
as: the stress of migration and cultural
integration (including among refugee
populations); an increasingly polarized
world fueled by “us versus them” nar-
ratives; lack of available economic and
employment opportunities; persistent
Mental health issues today have gender- and race/ethnicity-based in-
equality, discrimination, and violence;
almost become pandemic. shifting cultural norms and a feeling of
“culture under threat”; and the role of
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 3
tech and social media, fueling every-
thing from tech addiction to loneliness
“Loneliness has been alleged to have
to body image issues. Furthering this
trend is the opioid crisis, with signs of the same impact on life expectancy
it being exported from the US to the
rest of the world. as smoking 15 cigarettes a day, with a
risk factor that rivals excessive drink-
Part A: Mental ing or obesity. A lack of social contact
Health Challenges can also speed up cognitive decline,
on the Rise
heart disease, depression, and suicide.”
Patterns Among What Is
Getting Worse: Depression,
Anxiety, and Loneliness
—
It was estimated by the World Health
Organization (WHO) in 2015 that more
than 322 million people have depres-
sion—about 4 percent of the world’s and smartphone anxiety, including can increase feelings of loneliness and
population, an increase of 18.4 percent “low-battery anxiety,” “nomophobia”, anxiety. Not only are more people,
between 2005 and 2015. Loneliness is the fear people can feel when they particularly digital natives, craving
also on the rise. A recent study found are out of mobile contact, even FOMO “IRL” (in real life) connection, but stud-
that over 9 percent of adults in Japan, (fear of missing out), which has nearly ies have shown that people felt better
22 percent in the US, and 23 percent 23 percent of students in India log- and more connected during times
in the UK always or often feel lonely or ging more than eight hours on their when they only socialized face-to-face.
isolated. While this is more pervasive smartphones daily. The dependency This level of social disconnection can
and rising more quickly among the is strong and globally pervasive, with also endanger health. Loneliness has
young, demographic shifts, particularly nearly all of the 60 percent of Kenyans been alleged to have the same im-
aging populations in more developed who own smartphones saying they pact on life expectancy as smoking 15
markets, are leading to an increase find it hard to put them down. In cigarettes a day, with a risk factor that
in social isolation. From 1980 to 2015, China and South Korea, tech rehab rivals excessive drinking or obesity. A
the number of seniors in Japan living camps are now common, and the lack of social contact can also speed
alone increased more than six-fold, World Health Organization officially up cognitive decline, heart disease,
to almost 6 million, resulting in some recognizes video game addiction as a depression, and suicide. And, smart-
unusual actions, including lonely se- mental health disorder. phones are methodically killing off
niors, typically women, shoplifting in But there is evidence to suggest boredom, which has a very important
search of the community and stability that we are just hitting the tip of the role in creativity. The seeds of ideas
of jail. More than half of seniors caught iceberg of tech-enabled mental health that may come from idle reflection are
shoplifting live alone; 40 percent ei- issues. Twenty-four/seven access being replaced by constant distraction.
ther don’t have family or rarely speak to information can cause a kind of And constant distraction—which caus-
with relatives. These people often say collective anxiety and helplessness. es dopamine to spike when confronted
they have no one to turn to when they Researchers using health-monitor- with newness and novelty, addictive
need help. ing devices found that entire popu- but inherently unfulfilling, does not
lations’ sleeping habits, heart rates, lead to a healthier mental state. Being
Technology Plays a Significant and distances walked can swing out creative, however, can.
Role, Especially as an Amplifier of sync after large societal events Ultimately, we still have a less-re-
We know the “usual suspects,” mental (e.g., Brexit)—and much of this is fined understanding of what is hap-
health issues resulting directly from heightened by a constant cycle of pening at the now-pervasive nexus of
technology—addiction, as social media social media and digital news. We mental health and technology. And
platforms use the same techniques as also see this manifesting socio-cul- things get complicated when we’re
gambling firms to create psychologi- turally. Smartphone use has replaced also learning of many ways in which
cal dependencies and real imbalance many in-person conversations. We are technology can improve mental
of brain chemicals among teens that talking to each other less and having health outcomes.
resembles depression and anxiety; fewer meaningful conversations which
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 4
Emerging Mental Health Epidemics: Technology Rx: Tech Tools
The US Opioid Crisis for Mental Health
It’s difficult to talk about mental health “Technology Rx” is part of the growing
without mentioning the US opioid trend of adaptive technology that can
crisis. The US faces a mental health personalize healthcare—outside of
epidemic; nearly 1 in 5 American adults mobile phone-based apps.
suffering from a form of mental illness.
Suicide rates are at an all-time high, Virtual Reality:
115 people die daily from opioid abuse, VR therapy is being used to address
and 1 in 8 Americans over 12 years old complex anxiety disorders, such as
take an antidepressant every day. The social anxiety, post-traumatic stress,
economic burden of depression alone and even paranoid schizophrenia. The
is estimated to be at least $210 billion Virtual Reality Medical Center in San
annually. People abusing opioids Diego uses VR therapy as a treatment
also often face the additional burden for reducing pain in patients under-
of depression. And while the opioid going procedures. Swedish pharmacy
crisis is most pronounced in the US, Apotek Hjärtat is prescribing its VR
the problem has begun migrating to pain relief app, Happy Place, as a sup-
Europe—which could portend an even plement to traditional pharmaceuticals.
greater, eventual global concern. The
relationship between opioid abuse and Gaming:
depression is bi-directional, meaning Videogames can also be a tool in
that suffering from one increases the serving mental health needs. Akili
risk of the other. Many prescription Interactive Labs is creating a videog-
opioid abusers may turn to using ame to treat kids with ADHD. “Chill-
heroin. This addiction can lead to the out” games that focus on relaxation
feelings of hopelessness, despair, and and aim to create a calming space for
guilt, and researchers estimate that 48 players are becoming more popular.
percent of people dependent on the
drug will also experience depression. Robotic Therapists:
Woebot, the bot therapist, does not
pretend to be human; it appears as a
cartoon robot when it chats with you
on Facebook Messenger all while doing
psychological work. Researchers found
Part B: Mental that after two weeks of interacting with
the bot, the test subjects had lower
Health Innovations incidences of depression and anxiety.
Entrepreneurs, philanthropists, com- Voice Analysis:
panies, and individuals have risen to Researchers are increasingly enlisting
the challenge, creating a range of smartphones and machine learning to
tools and treatment options that go find vocal patterns that might sig-
beyond traditional Western medicine. nal post-traumatic stress disorder or
This includes the rise of “anti-tech even heart disease. Vocal tests could
tech,” apps and mobile phone-based be useful because they are non-inva-
tools that help users reduce phone use sive—people are often embarrassed
(like this app recently launched in the to talk about their mental health, so
UK that allows users to earn rewards these conditions frequently go un-
for not going on their phones; and the derdiagnosed—and add a level of rigor
MP02, designed for people who want to measurement that mental health
to unplug from the world of apps and diagnosis has traditionally lacked.
constant notifications and use a sim-
ple, stripped-down phone). In addition, Artificial Intelligence (AI):
other types of innovations—“technol- AI solutions can help psychiatrists and
ogy Rx” and unusual applications of other mental health professionals do
natural medicine—are being applied to their jobs better. They collect and ana-
mental health. lyze reams of data much more quickly
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 5
than humans could and then suggest Weeping Boys”—provides cry-therapy
effective ways to treat patients. Ginger. services for men seeking a catharsis
io’s virtual mental health services they feel unable to express in daily life.
include video and text-based therapy Cuddle therapy is also on the rise in
and coaching sessions. Through ana- the US as people seek out touch from
lyzing past assessments and real-time strangers to feel soothed and pacified.
data collected using mobile devices, With more digital and virtual relation-
the Ginger.io app can help specialists ships, rather than interpersonal, these
track patients’ progress, identify times services may likely increase.
of crisis, and develop individualized
care plans. Happiness Meters:
Alibaba is pursuing a new biometric
Brainwave Treatments: concept at its Futuremart store: a hap-
While still in its infancy, technology piness meter to reward customers for
using a patient’s own brainwaves positive attitudes.
might offer hope against mental
health issues such as PTSD and chron- Alternative Health:
ic stress, research suggests. NeuroSky Natural Health Takes on
technology can detect and interpret New Twists
brainwaves and has even been used —
to develop a VR experience to help Return to Happiness:
treat OCD. A new wave of “happiness classes” in
India focuses on learning through
New Forums and Ways to inspirational stories and meditation
(Meaningfully) Connect exercises. This approach emphasizes
With loneliness and stigma both feed- concentration and self-awareness.
ing into mental health challenges and
preventing treatment, new efforts and Nature:
organizations are creating community Ecotherapy refers to a series of na-
and connection to facilitate treatment. ture-based exercises intended to ad-
dress both mental and physical health.
Online Chat Forums: Ecotherapists are a small but growing
Reddit may be helping people cope group of healthcare professionals who
with mental disorders. Researchers are essentially medicalizing nature.
learned that frequenting some of the Researchers have found that when
site’s subreddits (e.g., r/depression) people did physical activities in natural
improved the mental state of sub- settings, they experienced less anger,
scribers. Ironically, or perhaps predict- fatigue, and sadness. The Japanese
ably, some of its forums have done have long engaged in “forest bath-
just the opposite. ing” to promote positive health. Other
countries are starting to follow suit
Mental Health Text- and Hotlines: with similar efforts (e.g., India, the UK,
Text messaging is a surprisingly effec- Hong Kong).
tive way to do crisis counseling and
address mental health issues. And it’s Plant Medicine and Psychedelics:
the default mode of communication for Since the beginning of human history,
young people. Three-quarters of US- plants have served many important
based Crisis Text Line’s users are under medicinal and healing purposes. Trends
25 years old and 12 percent are under in this area are going beyond medici-
13. Sri Lanka’s mental health problems nal marijuana, to “magic mushrooms”,
skyrocketed after a three-decade civil ayahuasca tea, DMT, and MDMA.
war that ended in 2009. The CCC Line Psilocybin, the active chemical in
phone bank is a free counseling service magic mushrooms, may hold promise
run by volunteers. as a therapeutic approach for several
mental health problems. Microdosing
Cathartic Experiences: LSD has been found to increase mental
A Japanese company, Ikemeso Danshi— clarity and treat conditions such as
which roughly translates to “Handsome OCD (obsessive compulsive disorder).
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 6Play: equally important to examine what
Playing physical games is known technological tools employees are
to positively effect mental health. being given to optimize both their
Children are so over-scheduled in the performance and their mental health.
US that doctors are being told by the
American Medical Association to pre- Could Technologies Designed to
scribe free play. Measure Mental Health Be Used
to Manipulate It?
Challenges & Questions Our environments will increasingly be
Despite the overwhelming need, polit- populated with technologies that an-
ical leaders and international develop- ticipate people’s feelings, determine
ment agencies frequently overlook the if they are suffering from something
importance of mental health. In Africa, like depression, or have mental health
the “treatment gap”—the proportion issues. One of the important ethical
of people with mental illness who quandaries going forward will be how
don’t get treatment—ranges from 75 those technologies could manipulate
percent in South Africa to more than individuals’ mental health using those
90 percent in Ethiopia and Nigeria. data points. A practical example we
Overcoming the silence that comes see today is a Chinese school using
with mental health is a growing issue facial-recognition to analyze student
in China. In India, 75 percent of millen- behavior. The technology records
nials said they don’t feel comfortable facial expressions, categorizing them
talking to medical professionals about into happy, angry, fearful, confused,
mental illness because of the stigma or upset categories—and the school
attached to mental health problems. In can tailor its approaches accordingly.
northern countries like the US and UK, We will likely see more applications
mental health services are plentiful of this among global populations—in
but often expensive, inaccessible, and academia, in the workplace, and, in
often stigmatized among minorities, some instances, through direct utiliza-
immigrants, and young men. tion by governments.
Alternative therapies to combat
mental health may become more
mainstream. For instance, what would
it look like to “prescribe nature”?
What would nature-based methods
of physical and psychological healing
do to productivity? And what could
this mean for the creation of sustain-
able communities—particularly in the
developing world? Will more health
insurance plans cover ecotherapy
like they do cognitive therapy? Or
cover prescription-strength video
games? Will school psychologists
be equipped with VR headsets? Will
pet stores or animal shelters become
wellness clinics? Will public parks turn
into adult playgrounds? Will robots
become our psychiatrists; therapists;
confidantes? Will our smart homes,
“In
countries like the US and UK, men-
hospital rooms, classrooms, offic-
es, retail spaces, and military arenas
tal health services are plentiful but of-
of the future be able to respond to
individual moods and current mental ten expensive, inaccessible, and often
health states? And while more em-
ployers are embedding yoga, medita- stigmatized among minorities, immi-
grants, and young men.”
tion, and mindfulness practices into
current wellness programs, it will be
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 7The Rise—and Fall? With estimates of more than 1 million
worldwide, “influencers” speak to 84
billion accounts, shaping viewer opin-
—of the Social
ions and purchasing patterns through
videos, pictures, tweets, “stories,” and
more. They are distinct from celebrities,
politicians, and athletes because they
Media Influencer gained their influence through social
media platforms first, usually building
off of an authentic voice that speaks
to a specific (usually millennial) audi-
ence, and yes, attractiveness, especially
for visual-based media, helps. The
three biggest platforms for individual
influence are Instagram, Twitter, and
YouTube—though the blogosphere
has long been an influencer haven. In
2017, Instagram alone had ~12.9 million
brand-sponsored influencer posts. That
number is estimated to double by the
end 2018, creating an estimated market
size of nearly $1.7 billion. Some project
total influencer marketing could reach
$10 billion by 2020, enabled by grow-
ing influencer marketing platforms that
We are in the Age of the Social allow easy search and access to influ-
encers by advertisers. Decentralized
Media Influencer. communication platforms have in-
spired a true influence revolution, with
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 8cascading effects. But as the power of
this channel grows, it changes just as
“With new products and services be-
rapidly, blurring the lines between fact
and fiction, authenticity and advertis- ing consistently introduced in Africa,
ing—even when you’re not actually get-
ting paid, as we learn how to tap into there are myriad opportunities for
its power. With its remarkable growth,
we’ve also seen major controversies,
from YouTube beauty community scan-
influencers to introduce new brands
dal, to the now infamous Fyre Festival
disaster, a hoax musical festival built on
or products to a wider market.
social media influence and very little
else. Social media influence, as quickly
Influence is even crossing over into
as it rose, may just as quickly die, or
transform, in a vacuum of personal
healthcare. Patients in the US, for
meaning and authenticity—the driving
forces that led to this alternative uni- instance, with social media influence
verse in the first place. There is change
in store for influence in 2019. Here are are getting paid by pharma compa-
a handful of emerging trends in the
world of personal branding and influ-
ence we are particularly fascinated by:
nies for their opinions.”
Influence in
Global Consumption
China’s influencer economy totaled $17
billion in 2017. The recent “flaunt your Role of the Nanoinfluencer activist—voices. In Africa, where a
wealth challenge” generated more Mega-influencers are highly valued generational divide between aging
than a million posts on Weibo. China’s by consumer goods and fashion, political rulers and their young constit-
growing army of social influencers but nano-influencers can be just as uents is strongly felt, youth influencers
have played a role in popularizing the valuable, especially for brands and are playing an active role challenging
meme. They usually pose as if they’ve ideas that trade on trust and authen- corruption, censorship, and economic
just fallen out of a luxury car and ticity. Nanoinfluencer is a new term crisis plaguing much of the conti-
spilled their most valuable possessions to describe people who have as few nent. Some predict “influencers [will]
onto the pavement. Chinese influ- as 1,000 followers and are willing to become the new liberated power in
encers have also capitalized on their advertise products on social media. Africa” in 2019. To many this feels like
online popularity to launch clothing Their lack of fame is one of the quali- a way for regular people to make their
and beauty lines, and even sell cars ties that make them approachable and mark on politics. But, as we’ve already
directly to fans through livestreaming appear genuine. At its core, influencer seen, there are risks when social media
apps that reach an audience of 398 marketing is about storytelling and the is combined with elections, that we’re
million. Many own businesses that sell co-creation of unique and engaging seeing creep into the influencer land-
products created around their person- content. Honesty and transparency scape as well. In Indonesia, political
alities and lifestyles. In India, influenc- are often important, and this category actors are paying social media influ-
ers have inverted the funnel to such especially has given voice to a spec- encers to spread propaganda ahead of
an extent that marketers are start- trum of voices and perspectives that the 2019 elections. Dozens of influenc-
ing to factor them into their annual are often missed by mainstream media, ers, referred to as “buzzers,” are work-
calendars. Young African influencers channels, and advertisers. ing in swarms to flood social media in
are coming onto the scene strong in order to influence election results.
fashion, music, arts, and food. With Influence in Politics
new products and services being con- Influencer marketing has pushed Influencer to Celebrity—
sistently introduced in Africa, there are digital campaigning to a new level. the Compounding Effect
myriad opportunities for influencers to Research indicates that social media of Influence
introduce new brands or products to a platforms” election mobilization fea- It’s common for a celebrity to use in-
wider market. Influence is even cross- tures (i.e., digital equivalents of the “I fluence platforms to build their brand,
ing over into healthcare. Patients in Voted” sticker) have influenced voting increasing their value as they negoti-
the US, for instance, with social media behaviors. We’ve seen influencers ate media deals and contracts. We see
influence are getting paid by pharma use their reputation to back specific the same trend among influencers—
companies for their opinions. candidates and become active—and savvy influencers using their following,
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 9personal brand, and social capital to Facebook deleted 583 million fake
further their careers, start new busi- accounts in the first three months of
nesses (e.g., Tammy Hebrow, fitness 2018, and in November 2017, revealed
influencer, now with a $3.6 million ath- that up to 60 million automated
leisure brand), sometimes propelling accounts may roam the site. While
them into new areas, or into becoming Twitter and other platforms prohibit
celebrities themselves. buying followers, other sites openly
sell them to celebrities, businesses,
Influence and the Role of Bots and anyone who wants to seem more
Bots are increasingly playing a sig- popular or exert influence.
nificant and transformative role in
social influence not just as followers or The Social Activist Bot:
creators of content, but as influencers “Woke” chatbots have appeared on
themselves. And it’s becoming more Twitter and have been dubbed the
difficult to differentiate between real “next frontier of online activism.” While
human influencers and artificial ones. both Follower Bots and Woke the
Social Activist Bot are not “influencers”
The Social Media Fembot: in fashion or brand, these chatbots
We are beginning to see the rise of the can play a critical role in gaining mo-
social media fembot. Poppy, a human mentum behind movements, and have
android-themed pop star and YouTube their own “influence” game to play.
influencer, is one example. Poppy’s
videos have been viewed more than Influencer Regulation
257 million times. Last year, Microsoft’s With the pickup of social media ad-
chatbot Zo partnered with Poppy to vertising, regulation has followed. The
create “influential” internet content. UK Advertising Standards Agency and
Then there is Lil Miquela, a comput- Competition and Markets Authority
er-animated creation posing as a has created an Influencer’s Guide with
human. This Instagram model is edited rules around social media advertising.
into real backgrounds, posed with real The US Federal Trade Commission
people and dressed in real streetwear has started selectively bringing legal
that real people can buy. Her rise to action against notable brands and
nebulous online fame has led to col- paid influencers who haven’t disclosed
laborations with brands like Prada. sponsorships, saying disclosure tools
by platforms like Facebook are insuf-
Bot vs. Bot: ficient as they are. In the Middle East,
In April 2018, Miquela’s profile was where media can be influencer-led giv-
hacked, by another social media en blocks on traditional new sources
bot. Many photos were deleted and and content, countries like the UAE
replaced with photos of a different are even introducing regulations re-
computer-generated avatar, Bermuda. quiring expensive licenses to become
While potentially politically-driven an influencer.
(Miquela is liberal and Bermuda is pro- In a world of digital influence, the
Trump), it also represents what the “who” (and increasingly, the “what”)
professional wrestling world calls kay- becomes harder to define. While
fabe—the blanket term for anything influencers can help brands gain trust
within a storyline that’s meant to seem and authenticity due to their “real life”
real, even if it’s fake. authority, we can, through social me-
dia, craft an idealized persona through
The Follower Bot: fake followers, fake content, fake
Bot followers have been inflating images, fake recognition, even fake
influencer fan counts for years, but experience, none of which can be veri-
now brands who collaborate with fied or proven otherwise, the exact op-
influencers have a heightened reason posite of its original intent. Deepfakes
for skepticism. As many as 48 million are further blurring the line between
of Twitter’s reported active users (15 reality and falsehoods, raising many
percent) may be automated accounts questions: How do we begin to prove
designed to simulate real people. that online political movements are
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 10real if we can’t even tell if they are
created, managed, or followed by AI/
bots or actual people? This becomes
murky territory for advertisers in the
business of influencer marketing. A
new status marker has emerged: the
number of people who follow, like, or
“friend” you. But deciphering who has
real marketplace and consumer influ-
ence is getting harder, particularly as it
becomes more difficult to differentiate
on social media between humans and
AIs impersonating humans. This could
all very well lead to the demise of the
influencer, or at least its transforma-
tion, as those in search of authentic
experience and unmediated relation-
ships look to new channels and voices.
Reputation is a new currency, for
employability, value in society; but
how is “influencer value” affecting us—
both socio-culturally and geopolitical-
ly? What effect will influencer-coordi-
nated misinformation campaigns on
social media have on global politics?
Or global citizenry? Mainstream me-
dia? More broadly, what effect will so-
cial influence have on everything from
corporate shareholder profit to hiring
practices to future employability? Will
it reinforce pre-existing beliefs to dan-
gerous levels? Ignite more polarizing
and extremist viewpoints? Or could it
give voice to the disenfranchised, the
marginalized, and the subjugated?
What made us seek out and listen to
influencers in the first place? What
new power “influence institutions”
are being created, and what will the
counter-reaction be?
“Reputation is a new currency, for
employability, value in society; but
how is ‘influencer value’ affecting
us—both socio-culturally and
geopolitically?”
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 11The Quantum Race There have been many advancements
in the pursuit of quantum computing,
which at its most basic level integrates
computer science and the principles
of quantum mechanics (e.g., super-
position, entanglement, interference).
Large-scale quantum computers could
theoretically solve many societal, gov-
ernmental, and business challenges
much more quickly than our best cur-
rent technology. Quantum computers
can crunch big data problems that in-
volve finding optimum solutions from
vast numbers of options and solve
computational problems currently out
of reach. But what is quantum com-
puting, what can it do, and why are so
many countries racing for “quantum
supremacy”, especially given … work-
ing quantum computers don’t actually
exist yet.
What Is Quantum Computing?
Quantum computers harness the
speed and behavior of atoms, which
function radically differently than sil-
icon computer chips, to perform seem-
ingly impossible calculations. They
are powered by qubits, the subatomic
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 12workhorses and building blocks of
quantum computing. There are a few
“Governments may soon race to
key differences between a classical
computer and a quantum computer. A test out quantum theory in orbit,
classic computer uses bits that are ei-
ther in a 0 or 1 state. But quantum bits, and eventually build a ‘quantum
or qubits, can also be both 1 and 0 at
the same time. The quantum circuits
that use these qubits to transfer infor-
internet,’ which will give rise to
mation or carry out a calculation are
called quantum logic gates; just as a
new kinds of coding and allow for
classic circuit controls the flow of elec-
tricity within a computer’s circuitry,
faster-than-light communication—
these gates steer the individual qubits
via photons (quantum light particles).
possibilities that have powerful
This means qubits can achieve an ex-
ponentially higher information density appeal for government agencies
than classical computers. Quantum
computing offers the potential for and the private sector alike.”
computers to operate much faster,
using much less power. Some theorists
believe that quantum computing will
eventually be so powerful that many
current forms of encryption will be-
come obsolete.
Quantum Geopolitics working on a quantum mechanics sys- slow or insecure. They also have the
Some speculate that quantum capa- tem with the aim of creating a secure potential to optimize new drug thera-
bility could be used to define future communications network between pies, models for climate change, and
global economic hegemony. China is four different cities in the Netherlands designs for new machines. They can
surging ahead with quantum satellite by the end of 2020. In 2016, the EU achieve faster delivery of products,
technology, as it is in AI and robot- invested $1.2 billion in quantum com- lower costs for manufactured goods,
ics, that can send entangled photons puting. In December, the US Congress and more efficient transportation. The
from space to stations back on Earth. passed the National Quantum Initiative speed of quantum, combined with AI
It is developing a large ground-based Act, which allocates $1.275 billion to and machine learning, is a fascinating
network that uses quantum communi- quantum research from 2019 to 2023. proposition. Lockheed Martin plans to
cation to protect messages, a first step Quantum supremacy could also use its D-Wave quantum computer to
toward worldwide secure quantum have meaningful implications for test autopilot software that is current-
communications. It enabled the first private sector actors. At a minimum, ly too complex for classical computers.
intercontinental video call that was a cloud computing company with Google is using a quantum computer
completely “unhackable,” with surveil- quantum computers could outper- to design software that can distinguish
lance or eavesdropping immediately form its conventional rivals in power, cars from landmarks.
detected due to the effect measure- speed, and security. At a maximum, The most immediately evident
ment would have on the quantum par- companies controlling the “quantum and popular applications, however, are
ticles. Governments may soon race to internet” could make an unsurveillable in national security. Quantum com-
test out quantum theory in orbit, and network for those who can afford it, puters have the potential to disrupt
eventually build a “quantum internet,” while the rest of the world is relegated current security protocols that protect
which will give rise to new kinds of to a slower mode of communications global financial markets, render many
coding and allow for faster-than-light where nothing is guaranteed to be of today’s sophisticated encryption
communication—possibilities that have private. systems inoperable, and upend secret
powerful appeal for government agen- government intelligence. International
cies and the private sector alike. Implications & Applications: competition is of grave concern be-
Currently, the Chinese government What Is Quantum For? cause one of these machines could in
is working on a $10 billion national lab Quantum computers have the po- theory crack the encryption that pro-
for quantum research set to open in tential to propel breakthroughs in tects sensitive information inside gov-
2020, and e-commerce giant Alibaba medicine, finance, and defense ca- ernments and businesses around the
is building a lab of its own. Europe, pabilities, especially in areas where world. Quantum communications and
too, is entering the race. QuTech is current computation is considered cryptography would also offer a dis-
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 13tinct tactical advantage to any actor Questions & Takeaways
that employs them on the battlefield. While the exact timeline for quantum
Using quantum communications for computing is largely unknown, it still
the purposes of transmitting classified raises important questions. What is
data is appealing to military planners the real potential of quantum—will it
across the world, as they are impossi- simply speed up existing technology,
ble to tap clandestinely thanks to the or will it lead to new innovation and
fundamental properties of matter. This applications? Will quantum power
poses an opportunity for a veritable be decentralized and available to
“quantum leap” forward in military everyone? Or will it be hoarded and
communication. China has invested traded by global tech companies and
disproportionately in quantum cryp- wealthy governments? As quantum
tography, and many researchers be- computers become viable, govern-
lieve they lead the world in this sector. ments may need to prepare for the
The EU has taken a leadership position potential cybersecurity consequences.
in quantum communications, more Will the current geopolitical landscape
generally, and the US has focused its of increasing nationalistic policies
efforts on quantum computers. and reduced cross-border collabo-
ration mean that quantum becomes
Quantum Hype? the next geopolitical “battleground”?
While quantum computers offer break- Will countries split into factions and
throughs in computing performance, choose their “quantum alliance”?
the applications of this technology What about security implications
do not presently differ significant- for individuals? Quantum computing
ly from those today, and at best, power in the hands of hackers makes
quantum computing is in beta stage. possible all sorts of scams that don’t
Communications have been demon- even exist yet. What effect would this
strated in a lab environment, but it have on identity theft schemes? Could
remains to be seen if they’d be equally cybercriminals begin selling quantum
viable “in the wild.” Researchers aren’t encryption-busting services on the
even sure that large-scale quantum dark web? Some believe the quantum
computing is possible yet. It’s been es- computing apocalypse is imminent.
timated what the world’s first commer- With all new and powerful technolo-
cial quantum computer could come as gy, a looming question remains—will
soon as 2022, but that may be more quantum computing be used as a tool
hype than reality. Others estimate that of creation, destruction, or both, and
the full impact of quantum computing who will decide?
is a decade—or several—away.
Lack of talent adds a significant
restriction on the pace of develop-
ment. Fewer than a thousand people
in the world are estimated to be doing
leading research in the field. Private
and public entities will have trouble
attracting the talent needed to build
quantum technology.
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 148 Billion The world is increasingly intercon-
nected through technologies like the
internet and IoT (Internet of Things),
“MEcosystems”:
enabling the concept of a noosphere,
or future global “brain.” But there is a
parallel track to innovation centered
around the individual—where people
Transhumanism are now capable of becoming their
own fully-integrated and customizable
bio-digital ecosystem, what we will
Becomes Reality
call a “MEcosystem.” This is essentially
technology intersecting with the phys-
ical body, and we see it most promi-
nently in several nascent technological
developments—advanced wearables
(including embeddables, implant-
ables, even ingestibles), 3D printing
for human augmentation, and gene
editing, plus many other emerging
developments. Advancing technology
has the potential to push the evolu-
tion of humans forward, beyond their
own biology, and potentially toward
a transhumanist future where human
bodies are optimized with technology.
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 15Wearables aka
“How We Become Cyborgs” “The Terasem Movement Foundation
Wearables have been evolving into
embeddables, implantables, invisibles, was formed around the hypothesis that
even ingestibles, early steps toward a
future where humans become more we may be able to circumvent aging
like cyborgs. Subdermal RFID chips
can hold personal details, credit card
numbers, and medical records. By
by placing the parts of us that matter
one estimate, there are 10,000 such
“cyborgs” with chip implants around
most (e.g., our identity, consciousness,
the world. Chip enthusiasts include
followers of a transhumanist ideology
and memories—called a ‘mindfile’)
that seeks to optimize human bodies
with technology. Examples include
into something like a robot or avatar.”
haptic communication that lets users
receive messages through the skin
on their arms, exoskeleton vests that
augment lifting, neuromodulation as
an alternative to painkillers, and an
e-dermis that allows amputees to feel
pain and other sensations.
3D Printing for
Human Augmentation
Advanced 3D (and eventually 4D)
printing techniques that use fully or
partially organic materials will also
help repair and augment the human is perhaps what is most interesting which consists of transhumanist
body. Researchers are using 3D print- about it. The process has entered MEcosystems—one in which we can
ers to create new strips of healthy skin, mainstream consciousness and acces- use highly advanced AI as a means to
“bio-ink”-based corneas, stem cell-in- sibility with devices like the CRISPR- upload our minds and consciousness-
fused scaffolds for repairing nerve Cas9. Josiah Zayner, a biochemist and es into dynamic, continuously learn-
damage, and even grow-your-own biophysicist once employed by NASA, ing “digital clones” of ourselves. The
organs technology. was made famous for being the first Terasem Movement Foundation was
person known to have edited his own formed around the hypothesis that
Gene Editing for genes (and now runs a company that we may be able to circumvent aging
Inheritable Evolution sells DIY CRISPR kits). He kicked off by placing the parts of us that matter
Gene editing is the process through a series of public gene-editing stunts, most (e.g., our identity, consciousness,
which DNA is inserted, deleted, mod- a fad he may now regret. From teens and memories—called a “mindfile”)
ified or replaced in the genome of a in California to a research team at the into something like a robot or avatar.
living organism. CRISPR, a cheap and University of Alberta that recreated These largely theoretical future tech-
easy technique for making targeted from scratch extinct horsepox, a cousin nologies fall under the classification of
changes to DNA, is in research trials of smallpox, DIY gene-editing experi- “mindware.” As far out as these sound,
as a way to potentially treat diseases. ments are catching on rapidly around an experiment is underway to test
Much of the leading research to- the world. Unencumbered by labs, this hypothesis by uploading a real
day focuses on gene editing during research institutions, degrees, and woman’s memories into a robot called
the earliest stages of life—including regulation, it is the hardest strain of Bina48. Over time, the goal is for
on fertilized embryos, culminating gene-editing to predict, “citizen scien- Bina48 to grow smarter the more she
in the recent groundbreaking and tists” would argue the most innovative, learns. Inevitably, this type of technol-
controversial experiment where gene and a cornerstone of the transhumanist ogy holds the potential for people to
edits were made to two embryos movement. not only create one personal ecosys-
in Shenzhen. Biologists are trying tem constrained in part by their own
to go further, applying the CRISPR Looking Farther Out … body, but multiple that go well beyond
gene-editing machinery directly into Digital Cloning? those physical parameters.
mature human sperm. If we can push our imaginations Within each of these cutting-edge
But gene-editing experimenta- beyond currently developing tech- and controversial developments is a
tion is not confined to a lab, and that nologies, we can envision a future world of opportunity and a minefield
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 16of risk. Accessible and personalizing
technologies like 3D printers ($400)
and CRISPR ($150), even emerging
biotech “hackerspaces” like BioCurious,
provide the tools needed to poten-
tially bring transhumanist aspirations
to nearly anyone. This could result in
lifesaving breakthroughs, super-human
development, the reemergence of ex-
tinct diseases, and irreversible genetic
changes inheritable by generations.
Regulation is, typically, lagging, but
even if a government deemed it illegal,
could one simply travel to another
country where regulation is lax or even
encouraging? Will some countries
try to build a competitive advantage
around super-human enhancements
for medical tourism? There is talk
that it could be the next frontier of
cheating in sports. And, ultimately,
what does the impact of income and
access disparity have on this; could it
lead to a class division of gene edit-
ing “haves” and “have nots?” While
the application of MEcosystems has
centralized around the individual, in a
closed “walled garden” controlled by
the operator, with embedded technol-
ogies like wearables and implantables,
each personal ecosystem could be
turned on to connect with other digital
systems, voluntarily, automatically, or
surreptitiously. This opens up a world
of cybersecurity and privacy concerns,
as well as opportunities like more effi-
cient functioning of “smart” cities.
“Accessible and personalizing tech-
nologies like 3D printers ($400) and
CRISPR ($150), even emerging biotech
‘hackerspaces’ like BioCurious, pro-
vide the tools needed to potentially
bring transhumanist aspirations to
nearly anyone.”
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 17China Ascendant: Examples of significant wins include
its move within the IMF to make the
renminbi a reserve currency along-
“Soft Power” in an
side the dollar, and the creation of its
own multinational development bank,
which has secured the participation
of countries from a variety of geopo-
Open Global Order litical blocs. The Chinese government
has become the largest contributor
to international peacekeeping efforts
among the five permanent members
of the U.N. Security Council. And its
ambitious Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) is a long-range plan for a vast
network of transportation, energy, and
telecommunications infrastructure,
linking roughly 70 countries through-
out Eurasia, Africa, and even Latin
China is rapidly gaining global America, with an announced invest-
ment as high as $8 trillion.
influence through the application While the Chinese government
continues to make inroads in diplo-
matic, financial, and academic areas,
of soft power—the ability to shape China’s “soft power” strategy has
three important components: 1) Digital
the world without the use of power—or tech-driven strength; 2)
“Fore-power”—the power achieved
military force or coercion. from top-down, long-range planning
and foresight, and the top-down po-
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 18litical system that allows them to act
on it; and 3) Sharp power—the ability
“The important insight here isn’t about
of authoritarian regimes to manipu-
late opinion abroad. But its strategy a single advancement but the pattern
comes with substantial risk—for which,
given its growing global role, the overall—that China, its government
world may collectively pay.
Digital Power
and enterprises within it, has made
China has an abundance of comput-
ing power and capital. China’s nearly
technology a priority, and will contin-
1.4 billion people generate more data
than almost all other nations com-
ue to push its advancement as central
bined. And it has more internet users
than any other country—more than
to its success.”
800 million, 98 percent of them mo-
bile. The three Chinese tech power-
houses, Baidu, Tencent, and Alibaba,
have enormous global influence and
spending power—in many cases,
besting their US counterparts with the
achievement of major AI milestones
in areas like speech recognition and
deep learning. AI is projected to give more, see Race to Quantum). China is tems, seeds, robots, and data science.
the Chinese economy a 26 percent making inroads in emerging markets And, many young Chinese workers
boost over the next 13 years. And, a by taking on many Digital ID and facial are moving from manufacturing into
large chunk of forecasted Chinese recognition projects. Some projects service industries. China announced
GDP gains ($6.6 trillion) are expected have stalled, but that is as much a a five-year plan to eliminate excess
to come from increased labor produc- product of the markets they are in capacity and lay off workers in the
tivity, with businesses automating pro- (Venezuela, Zimbabwe) as it is Chinese coal and steel industries, in a bid to
cesses or using AI. While this is both execution. And, while China has not restructure the economy. While each
a blessing and a curse—by virtue of planned to export its state-owned so- of these initiatives can begin as inter-
having the world’s largest labor force, cial credit system, companies like Ant nally focused, their eventual success
China risks the world’s highest AI- Financial are monetizing social credit can turn them into comparative global
driven labor displacement—the advan- by applying its techniques to loans advantages. The ability to make long-
tages of this technology outweigh the and other financial products. term plans is not an inherent advan-
drawbacks, and are a smart long-term The important insight here isn’t tage, as China’s not-as-recent history
play given its aging population. about a single advancement but the demonstrates. However, China’s ability
Outside of AI, the Chinese govern- pattern overall—that China, its gov- to distinguish itself in a world where
ment has also made manufacturing ernment and enterprises within it, has G7s and BRI[C]S are increasingly
and robotics a priority with its “Made made technology a priority, and will unstable creates a natural leadership
in China 2025” initiative, has more continue to push its advancement as role on the world stage.
than 500 smart cities testing smart central to its success. Looking beyond China’s borders,
sensors to autonomous vehicles, is on Chinese economic influence, through
the cutting edge of facial recognition Fore-Power both trade and regional/bilateral
projects, and isn’t shy to test innova- Practicing foresight is increasingly investment, is expanding worldwide
tions like state-owned social credit becoming a top-down existential across developed and emerging mar-
systems (or things like bitcoin, though imperative in an increasingly com- kets. It should be noted, however, that
they may act just as quickly to close plex geopolitical environment. China while these may seem like thought-
them). Chinese technologists are also has launched state-led efforts across fully crafted and coordinated projects,
building apps in local Indian dialects, technology (e.g., AI and quantum many contend it’s just the opposite,
well ahead of US tech companies. computing), agriculture, infrastructure not to mention unprofitable (more in
China is leading on frontier tech- (e.g., BRI), manufacturing, and robot- “Risks to China’s Future” below).
nology as well. In 2016, China launched ics (“Made in China 2025”), to culti-
the world’s first quantum satellite, vate expertise and global leadership. Europe:
in an effort to establish worldwide China’s government has increasingly Chinese money is pouring into Europe
secure quantum communications and shifted focus to reforming agriculture. at a time when public investment
maybe even a quantum internet (for It is spending billions on water sys- in the EU is at its lowest level in 20
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 19years. China’s attention is on northern Africa:
European innovation hubs as much And, China’s growing economic
as on infrastructure, but crisis-hit influence is no more apparent than
southern economies have also taken in Africa. In the next 35 years, 1 in 4
advantage. In that spirit, leaders of the people in the world will be African.
EU and China recently met to praise Chinese firms have been dispropor-
“EU-China connectivity.” tionately awarded infrastructural
development projects in Africa, and
South and Southeast Asia: trade has ballooned over the last two
China has been aggressively ex- decades. China officially surpassed the
panding its presence in Pakistan US as Africa’s largest trade partner in
(as part of the “China Pakistan 2009. China is now the single largest
Economic Corridor,” valued at $62 bilateral financier of infrastructure in
billion) and Malaysia, where it has Africa. A McKinsey analysis found that
given its largest BRI loans to-date, the amount of loans Beijing had made
and increasingly Maldives, Nepal, Sri to Africa had tripled since 2012. In
Lanka, and Bangladesh. “China’s 2017 alone, the newly signed value of
penetration of South Asia is the Chinese contracted projects in Africa
biggest game changer in 100 years,” registered $76.5 billion.
says Constantino Xavier, a Fellow at
the thinktank Carnegie India. “The Beyond … :
Russians tried, the Americans tried. In 2014, China’s president Xi Jinping
This is the first time since WWII that said that China wanted to become a
a massive power is contesting the “polar great power.” And, China’s am-
Indian state.” These moves are seen bitions now even extend to supremacy
as a powerful combination of political in outer space. More than 60 Chinese
and financial clout, and how these companies have entered the commer-
play out, as demonstrated recently cial space industry in the past three
with Malaysia, will be considered a years. China wants to be one of the
signal of their success—or failure—as a world’s top three aerospace powers
diplomatic global power. by 2030. China is also working on the
construction of a lunar base, to be
Latin America: used for new energy development and
Earlier this year, China held its sec- living space expansion.
ond ministerial meeting with the
Community of Latin American and Sharp Power
Caribbean States (CELAC). There, Although China does not seek to
China announced plans to have the conquer foreign lands through the use
BRI invest in Latin America. Over the of traditional hard power, some fear
past decade, Chinese policy banks that China seeks to conquer foreign
have provided more than $140 bil- minds through “sharp power,” a term
lion in loan commitments to Latin coined by the National Endowment for
America. Latin America has become Democracy in its report, Sharp Power:
the second-largest destination for Rising Authoritarian Influence. Sharp
Chinese overseas investment. Between power helps authoritarian regimes
2015 and 2019, China plans to invest manipulate opinion abroad—not to
$250 billion in direct investment and “win hearts and minds,” but to “man-
about $500 billion in trade. China is age their target audiences by manip-
already the largest trading partner ulating or poisoning the information
of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru. that reaches them,” a particular threat
China has increasingly sought to pair to vulnerable democracies. China’s
ideological and political influence sharp power was felt acutely in Taiwan,
with these investments. One concrete where President Tsai Ing-wen’s gov-
example is in Venezuela, where invest- ernment “accused China of meddling
ment by Chinese private sector actors in [local elections] by spreading
led to the introduction of a China-style disinformation, steering money to the
social credit system. opposition and inducing Taiwanese
media to provide slanted coverage,”
Trends to Watch in 2019 & Beyond 20resulting in a decisive defeat of the generally disregarded until they grow
Democratic Progressive Party she too serious to ignore.”
represents. While attempts to set Where will global economic order
up pro-China news networks abroad fall? Will China lead the world, or will
have been met with middling success, the global economy split into two:
setting up China-aligned “Confucius one centered in the US and the EU,
Institutes” worldwide has been more another revolving around China? Will
successful, as well as efforts to en- China’s debt-fueled rise finally implode,
gage citizens of other countries with bringing down with it dozens of loan-
Chinese descent to identify as “over- backed countries who must quickly
seas Chinese”—though the ultimate scramble back to the traditional lend-
impact of this is unknown, as many in ers to stabilize their economies? How
the 60 million-person Chinese diaspo- does this intersect with increasing
ra remains distrusting of the Chinese nationalist policies around the world?
Communist Party and its history with And what about disillusionment with
human rights. democracy, and growing patterns of
This “sharp power” activity sug- authoritarianism? Many developing
gests that China senses a window nations are looking to China, and its
of opportunity to pursue its goals, strong state system, as an alternative
especially with the Trump administra- to the economic liberalization of “the
tion seen as withdrawing the US from West.” Will we see more countries
its longstanding role as guardian of both partner with, and emulate, China?
the liberal international order, joining One thing is clear, China operates at
many other northern countries now one scale—huge. Huge production,
turning inward. growth, user base, loans, aspirations.
As it enmeshes itself into the global
Risks to China’s Future economy and polity, just as hugely, its
While China’s ascendance has been success—and downfall—becomes tied
impressive, it has significant risks to to that of Asia, Africa, and the world.
contend with, including debt-fueled Despite growing global tension, sus-
growth, rising inequality at home, a picion, and isolationism, we may very
US trade standoff, US and European well all rise—or fall—together.
restrictions on tech transfer to China, —
contracting exports, reluctance to Special thanks to Gregory Dunn, Business
shrink the state sector despite in- Analyst at McKinsey & Company, and Linda
creasingly crowding out private Lim, Ph.D., Professor Emerita of Corporate
Strategy and International Business at Uni-
enterprise, $200 billion in loans to
versity of Michigan, for their contributions
Belt & Road countries with already
to this brief.
astounding debt loads, notable human
rights abuses, as seen by its recent
detention of Muslim majority Uyghurs
in Xinjiang, not to mention its tenden-
cy toward vast, uncoordinated activity.
The Chinese government is known for
taking more of a “campaign”-style
approach—setting vision but not nec-
essarily organizing activity. While this
tactic can be highly effective for tech
investment, it can be the opposite for
infrastructure projects, leading to mis-
“Where will global economic order
alignment, duplication, even corrup-
tion. As one expert describes, “While
fall? Will China lead the world, or
outsiders tend to credit Chinese lead-
ers with long-term vision and exqui- will the global economy split into two:
site strategizing, policy implementa-
tion has in fact often been fragmented one centered in the US and the EU,
another revolving around China?”
and patchy. The negative side effects
of rapid, large-scale mobilization are
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