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The Scenarios www.sony.co.uk/futurescapes
The Scenarios
FUTURESCAPES
AN OVERVIEW
FutureScapes is an exciting collaboration project
which aims to explore the potential of technology
and entertainment to create a better, more enjoyable
world in 2025.
It’s not about predicting the future so much as
imagining the possibilities.
There is by definition an infinite number of possible
futures ahead of us. But one thing is clear: the world of
2025 will be very different from the one we live in today.
By starting with life in 2025, rather FutureScapes is designed to be as Developing the FutureScapes scenarios
than today, FutureScapes aims to open and collaborative as possible
Each scenario has been created from a was gathered through a 30-strong
stimulate more creative thinking about and is being convened by leading
range of expert inputs. Our starting point interview programme, supplementary
how technology might help us live sustainability non-profit organisation,
was the existing set of Climate Futures desk research and an all-day workshop.
sustainably. By sharing immersive and Forum for the Future, and leading
scenarios, developed in conjunction Contributors included key Sony experts
entertaining stimulus material – such consumer technology company, Sony.
with fifty scientists, economists, and (R&D teams, new ventures, chief
as the scenarios in this document –
representatives from business, NGOs technologists, and senior business
this collaboration aims to invite the About this document
and government around the world, using leaders from across Sony Electronics,
contributions of ‘futures’ experts and
This document summarises the findings These scenarios are an imaginative an adaptation of the Field Anomaly Playstation and Pictures), as well as
an eclectic mix of thinkers, writers,
of the FutureScapes research ‘capture’ starting point for the next stage of the Relaxation method. companies such as Superflux and
designers and the public to address the
phase in the form of four 2025 scenarios FutureScapes collaboration, when we Digital DIY, and external experts from
opportunities and challenges of life in Four of these Climate Futures
and their implications for technology will invite stakeholders and the public academia and think tanks.
2025 and the potential roles technology scenarios were updated and adapted
and consumer lifestyles. Intended to be to collaborate in developing potential
will play in it. to develop a stronger focus on the role We are very grateful to everyone who
seen as creative, playful thought-starters areas of future technology to enable
of technology in enabling sustainable contributed their time and expertise.
rather than definitive predictions, the sustainable lifestyles in 2025.
lifestyles in the future. This material
scenarios explore how complex and
intersecting trends can play out over
time, in an accessible format.
2 3The Scenarios
A note on reading the scenarios
Scenario planning is a way of discussing complex future issues in a clear and The Scenarios
structured way, to identify and prioritise risks and opportunities. Scenarios are
just tools to help people think about different possibilities in the future. We will use The following pages outline the four
these scenarios to challenge people to come up with creative responses to the FutureScapes scenarios:
main question of this project – how can technology enable sustainable lifestyles in 1. Hyper Innovation 6
2025? The scenarios are not an outcome in themselves, but a means to answer 2. Shared Ownership 12
this question imaginatively.
3. Centralised Survival 18
4. Prosperity Redefined 24
So there are a couple of important Questions to ask yourself when
things to consider when reading reading them:
the scenarios:
a. Is it possible to get here in 14 years?
1. They are just useful stories. They What signals do you see in the world
are not predictions and there is no such today that point to this scenario?
thing as a “right” scenario. The future
b. Can you imagine yourself in this
may contain elements from all of them
world? What would you be doing?
or none of them (pretty unlikely). The
important thing is to stretch thinking and c. What is the role of technology and
challenge assumptions. what are the major needs it meets in
each scenario?
2. The scenarios should be plausible,
consistent and interesting stories about
the future. They have to be quite short
to be useful and therefore cannot be
hugely detailed. The important thing is
to get the detail right where needed.
4 51
1. Hyper Innovation
The Scenarios
2011: Indicators of Change
1. Hyper ‘Weak signals’ which could trail tomorrow’s
Hyper Innovation scenario.
Innovation ● In 2009, artificial meat began to be
cultured in laboratories. A potentially
game-changing alternative food
source for a growing population with
shifting dietary tastes, in vitro meat
produced on a global scale would
greatly reduce the world’s traditional
● German
designer Anke Damaske has
reliance on water-dependent crops
re-energised the concept of synthesis
like rice.
by developing a biodegradable,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/
eco-friendly ‘silk’ from milk fibre. Her
aug/16/artificial-meat-food-royal-society
easy-care material is cheaper and much
In
2010, Andre Geim and Konstantin
more water-efficient to manufacture
An Overview
●
Novoselov won the Nobel Prize for than the real thing. No pesticides are
Physics for their work with graphene, used, boosting sustainability. Best of all,
This low-carbon world has been created by a rapid and ceaseless an ultra-thin, ultra-strong material because it’s produced from unwanted
process of technological innovation. Lifestyles and business practices capable of replacing construction substandard milk, Damaske’s business
composites like carbon-fibre and the model also neatly addresses the issue
have been minimally affected, but against the background of diminishing conductive elements in computer of post-production waste.
resources there is growing concern about the long-term sustainability of chips, allowing just about anything http://www.dairy2020.com/cow-milk-couture-
to be digitised – from crisp packets fashion-made-milk
this ‘innovation treadmill’ approach. to clothing.
● Synergising
shortages with super-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/nanotechnology-
abundances could signal a new
world/graphene-a-miracle-material-in-
the-making approach to the best use of energy
and raw materials. The Solar Sinter
In
six hours, Earth’s desert zones
project has created a sun-powered 3D
●
receive enough solar energy to power
printer which melts desert sand into
the planet for a year. The Desertec
glass, and then moulds it into shape.
Foundation aims to turn this concept
http://vimeo.com/25401444
into reality with massive solar thermal
power plants generating electricity and ● Human
resistance to wearable
desalinating water. Graphene allows technology could well be eroded by
the production of curved solar panels Eyez eyeglasses. They look exactly
– a key development. Construction of like ordinary sunglasses, but record
Desertec’s first 500 MW solar farm is the wearer’s view in HD, streaming
scheduled to start in 2012 in Morocco. video live to online social networks.
http://www.desertec.org/concept/ http://kck.st/lTacGw
6 71. Hyper Innovation
The Scenarios
2025: HyperInnovation, In Detail
Many 2025 citizens see themselves as fortunate Business has no time to dwell on such
matters. Its only option is to maintain
to live in a golden age of technology and freedom the pace by keeping products simple,
– a kind of global Silicon Valley. keeping them individual, and adding
some element of emotion to quell
the sense of social disconnection
It’s an individualistic, consumerist and fast- in an ‘always on’ society. Product
moving world powered by an economy that’s been Global disruptions such as sudden food personalisation is seen as both an
emotional top-up device and a massive
revolutionised by high-tech, low-carbon innovation. shortages are usually accompanied
by campaigns from pressure groups market opportunity, but with everyone
for a global slowdown to improve quality pursuing the same three-point plan,
of life and environmental impact. establishing and communicating points
But usually the uncertainty about an of difference is difficult. So is managing
over-reliance on constant innovation an acceptable work-life balance.
is overcome by the timely arrival of Competition in business is fierce, and
Smart business solutions are helping to In general, however, consumers expect The general population has faith in the unexpected new solutions. Unfortunately, constant innovation is required to stay
fulfill the consumption, wealth and life most of the eco-work to have been done ability of businesses to deliver a solution not every problem can be easily solved ahead of the curve. New products
expectancy demands of many of the for them long before they purchase to every challenge – and big rewards by technology. Carbon emissions have must not only help to retard society’s
world’s eight billion people. a product or service. The system is await innovators who are first to market. declined year on year, although at a emotional fracturing but also dodge the
working: greenhouse gas emissions New software and new ways of accessing slower rate than that recommended by trap of digital fatigue.
Incentivisation of pro-environmental
are down, levels of economic growth or curating content are especially hot. the majority of climate scientists, but
behaviour has made it easier, cheaper The thirst for gadgets and online
sustainably high. Companies like It’s tougher to make your fortune in there are some disturbing ecosystem
and more pleasant to ‘do the right experiences is fuelling the pace of
Desertec’s work from the early 2010s hardware, which is rapidly commoditised scares.
thing’. Clever marketing has made change, creating digital fatigue, a
has born fruit: solar power is booming. and therefore less able to generate
energy/water/resource efficiency cool Not every resource has an acceptable treadmill mentality and (ironically)
North Africa is using it to desalinate vast high profits for individual producers. But
and aspirational. Behavioural changes substitute, either – and not everyone mechanisms to cope with these
amounts of water, exporting its excess there are still more than enough early
are also moulded by tailored feedback is connected. If you’re not part of the problems, including the biggest threat
energy to Europe. adopters and market fragments to spur
mechanisms that instantly show the system, you’re almost invisible. There’s to the stability of society – inequality.
on technology designers.
eco-impact of a purchase in whatever Growth in the global South has been a worrying gap between those who use Flash riots are common in urban areas.
way will most appeal to an individual particularly marked, but overall levels In this open and fertile environment, technology and those who simply absorb It’s an uneasy world of ‘innovate now,
consumer, whether it’s on a cost, peer- of growth mask a growing divide micro-factory businesses can hit the the side effects. For many in the latter worry later’.
approval or some other basis. between rich and poor. Rises in both motherlode. Business owners task group, the feeling of being left behind
population and living standards have fast-reacting resource algorithms with is exacting a high toll on mental health,
seemingly taken the world to the brink of precise parameters so that they always one that can only be moderated by
overheating, only for novel and ever more source commodities at the best prices, blockbuster drugs. This world can be a
sophisticated efficiencies to come to the but the law of diminishing returns kicks highly volatile place in which wild market
rescue at just the right moment – albeit in when the resources dry up – an fluctuations combine with extreme
with a ramping-up of systemic complexity. increasingly frequent occurrence. weather and flashes of civil unrest to
create an underlying sense of disquiet.
8 91. Hyper Innovation
The Scenarios
A 2025 life: Barbara Technology
For 42 year-old Barbara, 2025 is a good Technology needs in 2025
year. She lives alone in a new-build
● Extreme
individualism demands
two-storey city house which, like most,
extreme personalisation
is connected to the local smart grid. The
growth of virtual shopping has replaced ● Fast
pace of life demands simplicity
most of the old local shops with new and ease of use
live/work properties like hers.
Barbara: ‘I’ve had to upgrade the Barbara’s boyfriend, Paul: ‘I must ● herever possible, life’s drudgeries
W Technology solutions in 2025
Barbara is the founder of a bio-couture security features in all my lines after admit I was a bit peeved not having should be handled by automation and
fashion range which uses nanotech, semi-autonomous software
● Virtual
concierges using smart
my security team caught a group of her attention over lunch. She called
biotech and distributed manufacturing control systems to optimise domestic
teenagers skimming bio details from me a hypocrite because last weekend echnology must be optimised for
T
to create actively healthy clothes. Her
●
energy use. Turn on the entertainment
some of my clients’ clothes. I’m pretty she caught me joining in on a VR goal reduced energy use and maximum
bestselling ‘you are what you eat’ range system and your concierge will
concerned about my own data too, but celebration while we were watching a resource efficiency
links real-time bio-monitoring to diet. compensate by dimming the lights for
I’ve got a virtual security agent to help West End play on home-theatre!’
Resource prices fluctuate on a daily Entertainment
and connection are key, a while.
me deal with that.’ ●
Some of the energy Barbara saves but as human interaction becomes
basis, so Barbara gets her designs ● irtual curators/PAs to help people
V
Barbara’s energy-efficient home has on household chores is spent on an increasingly virtual and isolated 2025 and beyond: how might
made up by small teams working in keep up with the latest developments
long since freed her from the time- exercise bike, powering the online
a global network of micro-factories. A there is an additional requirement in virtual networks. technology progress?
wasting tedium of cooking or cleaning. immersion that occupies much of her for technology to deliver emotional
bespoke algorithm identifies the optimum
Slow cookers respond to her text time. Her physical connections to others Algorithm
generators designed to ● Business-friendly
consumer attitudes
engagement and a sense of purpose
●
manufacturing hotspot for each order.
messages to produce delicious, healthy are poor, but she has thousands of help your house or business meet ● Early-adopter
culture
Barbara: ‘I’d like to grow my business meals. Recipes are fine-tuned by mood online contacts and friends, or ‘virtuals’. parameters you set for specified tasks.
and move into a house with space for data collected from her clothing during All the processing is done remotely.
● First-to-market
rewards
Barbara’s mum, Ellen: ‘We’ve not
a larger office, but I’m worried that my the day. Energy
efficiency, storage and use
seen each other properly for over a Ambient energy harvesting (such as
●
●
personal life will take another hit. It’s
Barbara: ‘I don’t worry too much about year. I don’t count virtual meetings. I kinetic energy from walking) to charge Software
a choice between the fire or the frying
●
sustainability nowadays. I realised years was horrified when Barbara chose a devices and hybrid power solutions
pan. If I don’t grow at the same rate ● Content
access
ago that I’d automatically get a green virtual mock-up of home when she was with multiple charging methods (solar/
as my competitors, they’ll reduce their
lifestyle as long as I invested in the right a child for our last meeting. It wrecked a kinetic/mains). ● Content
curation
resource costs and kill me by delivering
gadgets. Following that lifestyle isn’t perfectly good memory.
the same product, but cheaper.’ ● Virtual
environments and augmented ● Personalisation/customisation
cheap, but I’ll take anything that makes
‘Barbara’s relationship with Paul reality to upgrade your surroundings,
For Barbara, biohacking is a big my life easier.’
is lovely, but they don’t seem that enhance urban environments and cut
problem. She has constant worries
Though a permanent cure for ageing is committed to each other. I’m sure she out visual pollution (earning the ‘see
about bio-security and the potential for
yet to be found, rejuvenation clinics offer hopes for a deep relationship at some no evil’ nickname for augmented-
contamination – or even sabotage – by
a proven age-defying solution based on point. Barbara’s therapist and I have reality glasses).
unscrupulous competitors. And there’s a
cocktails of micronutrients and vitamins. both told her that she needs more in
wider problem. ● Data
security & management
her life than just work. And that doesn’t
Barbara: ‘I work most weekends, so to cope with the average citizen’s
mean working when she’s on holiday!’
my boyfriend Paul and I do have to plan massive digital footprint. Simple and
our time together. He came along to Barbara: ‘A family would be wonderful instantaneous analysis of data and
my monthly rejuve appointment today, at some point, but I’m far too busy at automation of digital wills.
then we had lunch, which was lovely – the moment.’
● Nuclear
generation technology as
although I did have to keep an eye on
a more widely-accepted route to low
one production line feed. I think Paul
carbon energy, following up on the
was a bit annoyed by that…’
2011 promise of nuclear fusion.
10 112
The Scenarios
2011: Indicators of Change
2. Shared ‘Weak signals’ which could trail tomorrow’s
Shared Ownership scenario.
Ownership ● Car
sharing clubs have been around
2. Shared Ownership
for a while, but peer-to-peer car
sharing is a more recent development.
Through online matchup sites like
Whipcar, private vehicle owners can
share their cars with private renters
on a daily, weekly or longer basis.
Owners make money on vehicles
that would otherwise sit unused,
while renters avoid car ownership/
maintenance costs and high carshare ● Virtual
supermarkets allow customers
club membership fees. to ‘shop’ while waiting for their train by
An Overview http://www.whipcar.com using their mobiles to scan QR codes
alongside images of items. Once the
Design/material open-sourcing is
In this world, global governments have foreseen climate instability and
●
order is placed, the food is delivered
popularising the ‘personal factory’
shortly after they return home. Tesco
instigated a strict programme of carbon limitation measures to defuse its movement. Companies like Ponoko
already has a virtual supermarket
create a space for designers to
consequences. The results are high carbon costs – and an entirely new upload their blueprints which
running in Korea.
perception of ownership. customers can license and turn
http://www.geek.com/articles/mobile/koreas-
tesco-reinvents-grocery-shopping-with-qr-
into products – typically furniture, code-stores-20110628/
There is both a personal and a business innovation aspect to this future. jewellery, or electronically-based, but
Augmented
reality is here in Aurasma
Creative development of new business and service models is vital and increasingly embracing other fields
●
3D-I, a platform using device cameras
such as biotechnology. Localised
governments have encouraged this by setting a carbon floor price – but this ‘manufacturing on demand’ replaces
to recognise over 500,000 real-
world objects or images. Aurasma
is not a planned economy. wasteful goods transportation with
visually augments the physical
efficient digital shipping.
world by inserting 3D objects into
http://www.ponoko.com/
everyday settings and allowing natural
● Open
marketplaces like Gumtree, interactions with them, overlaying
eBay and Etsy are familiar peer- video and animations – all without
to-peer selling environments, but barcodes, QR codes or tags.
new social currency sites such as http://bit.ly/of9hGk
Favabank allow neighbours to share
The
concept of energy as a service is
goods and skills through a bartering
●
currently being explored by Bosch in
system. Users create a profile and
the UK. Backing their claim to produce
exchange ‘favas’ with other users for
the most energy-efficient devices on
goods and services.
the market, they’re offering to pay your
http://www.favabank.co.uk
energy costs for three years if you buy
one of their appliances. That could
mean up to £100 back.
www.yfrog.com/nwjvwxfj
12 13The Scenarios
2025: Shared Ownership, In Detail
This is a new type of consumerism, one in which In order to survive in this production-
2. Shared Ownership
unfriendly scenario, companies have
ownership is perceived as cumbersome and ‘sharing switched to a more service-based
with your neighbour’ has graduated from a lifestyle approach. The products they do still
make, especially those in electronics,
recommendation into a life ethos. are more durable. Streamlined recycling
chains are bringing cradle-to-cradle
Individual responsibility for full-lifecycle costs and Urban travel is relatively easy, but
lifecycles closer to reality while defusing
longer journeys are too expensive
maintenance has been spurned in favour of renting for the average consumer, and cars landfill and pollution issues.
or leasing whatever you want – from bikes and no longer dominate the cities. Fuel Technology has taken a big leap
poverty isn’t the only problem for many forward. Augmented reality is fully
electronics to clothes – whenever you want it. Europe was the first to go down this countries. Mass water shortages have accepted, along with cloud-access
new path with its Energy Independence made some areas uninhabitable, and devices freed from the constraints of
Initiative, inspired initially by concerns water-dependent services like laundry physical information storage. Wireless
over energy security. Brazil, India and have been made subject to large-scale service is all-pervasive and as natural a
A new leasing model has emerged China signed up once they realised their neighbourhood sharing directives. Other part of life as landline telephones were
for most goods: seasonal wardrobes, booming populations were becoming services are being centralised too, at the turn of the 21st century.
handheld mobile devices, and new unsupportable. Relatively clean cities stoking the growth of energy- and water-
interactive TVs. Most big-ticket items are the 2025 legacy of quick decisions efficient mega-cities – but even they are
are either leased and shared between on city planning and the environment, only just managing to cope.
many families, or have been replaced but the rising demands of a growing
For the vast majority of the population,
by community services. Manufacturers population are a constant challenge.
reusability and adaptability aren’t just
generate a big chunk of revenue
Mass migration to energy-efficient cities buzzwords: they’re the DNA of society.
from the provision of backup services
in the 2010s kept pace with continuing It’s in manufacturers’ interests to work
and software.
tough economic times and helped to closely with consumers so that they can
It’s a paradigm shift driven by carbon, spur the ‘shared service’ model that provide a product which doesn’t just
which has become one of the world’s works well when a critical mass of users meet their immediate needs, but which
most important and expensive is reached. also brings added functionality – and
commodities. Lifestyles are dictated by the the potential for repurposing once its
The super-rich can live outside the
price of carbon credits, with experience primary function has been exhausted.
box, either visibly or through the
achieving a sub-currency status.
black market, but for most of the
populace sustainability is the only
economic option. International travel
is prohibitively expensive, leading to a
booming market in virtual holiday and
leisure worlds. The time of cheap flights
and mini breaks is over. People plan to
fly every other year and use overland
travel where possible.
14 15The Scenarios
A 2025 life: Rajesh Technology
Power cuts are a lot less frequent now One day, Rajesh hopes to see for Technology needs in 2025
2. Shared Ownership
they’ve installed the local smart grid. himself whether the Austrian Alps are
To meet a step change in how we monitor
We’ve got the latest storage gadgets as spectacular in reality as they are in
and use energy, technology products
in the high-rise too, and in the flat, so ClimbWorld, one of his favourite VR
should deliver ‘cradle to cradle’ –
there’s usually enough battery power sites. In the meantime, he’s happy to
to keep most of our equipment running save up for a high-speed rail trip to ● Multifunctionalism
and versatility
when we do have outages.’ Himalayan hill stations. when new
Bangalore has certainly changed As a salesman for Healthyme, a Rajesh is comfortable with NB’s service- ● Adaptability
and reusability in use to Technology solutions in 2025
since Rajesh’s father moved there as personalised health system provider based economy. Rather than buying or extend a product’s lifespan
supplying bespoke medical advice to renting his own car, he’ll pick one up ● Mainstream
acceptance of
a data analyst at the end of the 20th Optimised
power usage for a mass augmented reality and virtual reality
●
century. Last month, there was a big people all over the world, Rajesh does from the local peer car pool.
of handheld devices delivering 24/7 allowing widespread adoption of online
celebration when the population topped most of his work from home as an
Rajesh: ‘I’ve got no problem with that, connection personae for work and socialising.
the 50 million mark, officially qualifying avatar. Occasionally, though, he’ll go
in fact I like it because you’re not stuck
Bangalore as the world’s tenth megacity. into Healthyme’s office in the CBZ. ● Access
to cloud-based services, AR fashion creating facial
with the same car all the time. If we ●
information and programming enhancements and fabulous
32 year-old Rajesh, his wife and two Rajesh: ‘Healthyme suits me pretty well. need something different, for a long
I’m good at my job, and the hours I work journey or to help with a removal, we Realistic
telepresence or virtual effect-dresses.
small children are four of the 50 million.
●
They live in a high-rise flat in New give me plenty of time to spend with my can generally get just what we need.’ experiences to replace real high- ● igh-quality hardware providing access
H
Bangalore, about 30 miles outside the family. The office is nothing special but carbon travel to new cloud-based software/platforms.
On Sunday, while his wife chose and
CBZ (Central Business Zone). Their when we fire up the AR (augmented Connectivity and inter-communication
rented her new season’s wardrobe, ●
ulti-use devices leased to
M
reality) it looks fantastic.’
●
community has a garden, a park, and Rajesh took the kids to the park on (for example, between domestic customers and generating revenue
lots of green space between buildings Even when work finishes for the day, the electrically-assisted family bike energy monitoring and management through service, maintenance, support 2025 and beyond: how might
– a positive result of the big decrease in connection doesn’t. he’s leasing. devices) and software upgrades.
car use over the last few years. technology progress?
Rajesh: ‘I’m always connected to some Life is good. Rajesh’s only real worry is ● Service
elements to enable businesses ● ew ways of generating, sharing,
N
Like most NBers, Rajesh accepts the to increase their revenue Customisation
sort of social network. Most of my being blacklisted by his favourite sharing
●
and transmitting power, for example
challenges of a low-carbon lifestyle. friendships are online, which sounds hubs, but that’s only happened once Product development through leasing,
through renewable sources such ●
Only the small minority who can afford it a bit sad, but it works for me – though when he returned a neighbour’s car with not selling
as solar cells on mobile devices,
or who use the black market to procure I must admit I do miss those friends a dent in the front bumper. to circumvent high carbon-credit Better
profiling = better product/
high carbon items can live outside the that are too far away to visit for a kick-
●
expenditure and feed excess power service tailoring
carbon economy. For the rest, including around. Whenever life gets dull – which back to the (wireless) ‘grid’.
Rajesh, sustainable living is the only it can sometimes – virtual reality will ● Intellectual
property
lifestyle choice. take us on mini-vacations that I’d never ● User-friendly
infrastructures for
Rajesh: ‘It’s fine, really. Most things are be able to afford in the real world.
accessible low-carbon lifestyles
designed for a longer life these days Couldn’t do without the VR really.’
Personal
services
anyway. We use and reuse stuff, and
●
On Saturday, Rajesh and his wife used
after that we’ll try to find another use for the local reputation network to find a
it. Chucking stuff away is a last resort. babysitter so they could have a night
on the town with their childless friends
in Virtual Ibiza. Their friends are very
experience-oriented, and spent the
evening telling Rajesh about the best
new virtual worlds and AR games.
16 17The Scenarios
2011: Indicators of Change
3
3. Centralised ‘Weak signals’ which could trail tomorrow’s
Centralised Survival scenario.
Survival ● Europe’s
record heatwave and ● By
harnessing the kinetic energy
drought of 2003 caused over 30,000 generated by rocking, the Empower
deaths, hit crop harvests hard and Rocking Chair charges electrical
sparked enormous forest fires. Studies devices like mobile phones and MP3
indicate that we can expect more players. Its simple USB tech could
of these extreme events if climate be added to bus and tube stops, train
change bites harder. Texas is currently stations and airports.
experiencing its worst one-year http://www.ecofriend.com/entry/empower-
drought on record and the hottest and rocking-chair-concept-generates-
the driest summer on record. renewable-energy/
France: http://www.grid.unep.ch/product/ ● The
Eco-factor proactive home
publication/download/ew_heat_wave.en.pdf energy management system
An Overview Texas: http://www.onearth.org/blog/texas-
global-warming-drought-wildfires
combines a smart thermostat with
online software to find the most
Stunned into a belated response by a series of severe climate shocks, ● new study linking food prices with
A efficient way to heat (or cool) your
house. Pilot projects using weather
3. Centralised Survival
governments have taken tough measures to combat climate change, unrest suggests the existence of a
forecast and local energy pricing data
‘flashpoint’ food price above which
pushing technology to its limits to impose sustainability on the population civic turmoil becomes far more likely. to tweak thermostat settings and make
other energy-saving changes have
and provide some relief from restrictions on personal freedom. While the Arab Spring was politically
shown an average 17% drop in energy
motivated, its timing did coincide
with high food prices. The study’s bills, with no loss in comfort.
authors expect global food prices to http://www.lightreading.com/document.
be more or less permanently over the asp?doc_id=211214
flashpoint figure by 2012-2013 unless ● The
Piezing is an energy-generating
rapid action is taken. designer dress using piezo-electric
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/ discs to harvest energy from the
damian-carrington-blog/2011/aug/25/food- wearer’s movements. Generated
price-arab-middle-east-protests
electricity is stored in a tiny battery
● The
UK All Party Parliamentary Group which can then charge personal
on Peak Oil released a report in 2011 gadgets.
that recommended Tradeable Energy http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/
Quotas. “This electronic system would archive/2010/06/the-little-black-piezoelectric-
ensure fair access to energy for all, dress/8107/
guarantee that we meet our national
emissions reductions targets, and
support the active participation and
cooperation of citizens and all energy
users in rapidly reducing our reliance
on fossil fuels.”
http://www.teqs.net/
18 19The Scenarios
2025: Centralised Survival, In Detail
This is a world that has woken up late to climate Technology is the crucial link between
happiness and mere survival. Besides
change. Attempts to secure a global agreement instantly awarding discounts or credits
on climate failed to extend much beyond national to households which make it into the top
10% for efficiency, and creating failsafes
borders, until the effects of climate change started to to prevent seasonal overselling of
seriously impact on North America and Europe. individual quotas, it also fulfils an escapist
role. Creative spikes in the virtual worlds
2018’s catastrophic Atlantic hurricane The near-universal wish for decisive of art, music and writing have helped
season was followed one year later by action, allied to a resigned acceptance to create a sense of liberation from the
a Europe-wide drought and heatwave of the need for strong medicine, reduced constraints of the real world.
that brought extreme water shortages, public resistance to these life intrusions There’s also a growing trend for self-
massive crop failures, and thousands and (in Britain at least) saw the welcome reliance as people try to cut living
of deaths. polishing-up of some slightly rusty expenses in a sluggish economy by
national traits. Political parties and growing their own produce or generating
Dwindling reserves drove food prices up
3. Centralised Survival
the media formed an unlikely alliance their own energy. In many countries,
to stratospheric heights and provoked Energy use conditions every thought. Public worries about a world without
in calling for solidarity, a call that was companies that help people save energy
global unrest. Only then was the planet Pressure groups campaigning for WEM outweigh openly-voiced misgivings
answered as it had been in times of war. and carbon are rewarded.
galvanised into concerted action, fairness and transparency still battle about its all-seeing eye. There is a
but the 2019 Pact came too late to The process of acceptance went less over appropriate carbon quotas for rich growing digi-punk movement which Strong common purpose keeps
head off draconian government edicts smoothly in North America until a and poor, old and young. Even having believes that more ‘human’ hands-on mainstream public opinion behind
which fundamentally reshaped how carbon quota market was introduced, children is so carbon-intensive that control is desirable, not only for the the global agreement. The 2024
businesses were to operate – and how giving individuals some freedom but some countries run state lotteries of long-term safety of mankind but also announcement of the first global
people would live their lives. also causing concerns about double- ‘free second child’ carbon allowances to because it offers better opportunities for decline in carbon emissions was
counting, corruption and the rise of try to limit a growing black market. life/carbon management. widely celebrated. Anything that
Almost overnight, energy-guzzling
‘carbon tycoons’. Emerging nations positively chimes with collective effort –
vehicles and technologies were phased Continuous ‘carbon watch’ is the norm, Generally, though, the public accepts
were given less onerous targets, and community, localism, patriotism, fairness
out and energy efficiency standards and not just on a personal level. A new WEM's control. Nations, corporations and
have yet to run into opposition, but in – works well. As scientists discover
hiked. As the effects of climate change global organisation, the World Energy individuals left to their own devices are
the West energy monitoring has become how close the world came to triggering
continued to bite, many states tightened Monitoring Corporation (WEM), keeps seen as unlikely to pursue the strategies
extremely important to everyone, from runaway climate change, there’s a sense
the screws still further, slashing speed the planet on a safe carbon track by needed for the welfare of the world. This
the corridors of power right down to of having collectively dodged a bullet.
limits, installing energy monitors in managing vast data flows. healthy cynicism comes to a natural
street level.
homes and cars and forcing whole conclusion that, without collective action, This world of ‘unity in adversity’ works,
industry sectors onto strict carbon diets. individual quality of life would nosedive. because most have seen the need for it.
20 21The Scenarios
A 2025 life: David Technology
David: ‘It’s the latest thing in energy- Technology needs in 2025
imaging technology. It lets you see
Overarching requirements from
energy consumption in real time. It’s on
technology are that it should
a live link to WEM, too, so I get extra
energy credits for using it, especially ● einforce human interaction and
R
David (27) lives in a 2-bedroom urban when I go to places with ropey WEM Juma: ‘We hired state of the art community spirit, by connecting people Technology solutions in 2025
maisonette with his partner Juma. The data feeds. A lot of the flats in the projectors to boost the home system.
●
R
eassure people that their actions are ● xtreme energy efficiency banishing
E
flat has high levels of insulation and a estates round here seem to have had It really did feel like we were there.’
having an impact on the global problem superfluous lights, power-hungry
highly-prized south-facing roof with a their master monitors hacked to churn
David tries to be optimistic about the screens or mechanical hard drives.
few solar panels (shared with upstairs). out some dodgy extra credits.’ ● e perfectly pitched to meet a need
B
future, but he’s got a sneaking suspicion
(hardware is expensive and new ● olidity, reliability and functionality
S
Their small garden has made David and For David, sustainability basically that this energy and carbon crisis could
product launches rare) are must-haves.
Juma the heroes of the neighbourhood means low-carbon energy, though he last for decades. He admits he’d be lost 2025 and beyond: how might
food group. Despite its tiny size, it is starting to think a bit about water without his personal monitor. ● chieve the right balance between
A ● nergy-saving and storage
E technology progress?
always seems to produce a bumper too. He thinks that WEM does a pretty self-determined, ‘automatic’ operation solutions that replace more energy-
David: ‘It’s a love-hate thing. I’d prefer E
nergy micro-harvesting
and manual operability
●
harvest of fruit and veg. decent job of keeping nations honest hungry activities (like travel) or actively
not to have to share quite so much of
3. Centralised Survival
through the independent measuring and harvest ‘free energy’ (for example, ltra-efficient batteries
U
chieve the right balance between
A
●
David: ‘Ah yes, it’s all skill you know. my life with WEM – where I go, how I ●
monitoring of carbon emissions, though monitoring and prying solar panels or pads that absorb
Or chemical fertilisers. They’re like gold get there, what I buy, my heat and light ● iezo-electrics* in clothing, floors
P
he thinks they should be much stricter energy from movement or sound to
dust these days, unless you’re a state- profile – but the benefits in discounts, Specific technology needs to provide:
on the high-birthrate countries. reduce consumption). ● S
olar paint
registered farmer, but Juma seems to be credits and free entertainments are just
able to get hold of the odd sack. I don’t He’s intrigued and slightly worried by the too tempting. All my friends feel the ● imple interfaces, seamless
S ● scapist virtual worlds that run from
E ● dvanced energy storage
A
ask too many questions!’ upsurge in ‘pro-people’ parties in some same. The monitor is what connects integration, utilitarian, ‘no-frills’ design centralised, ultra-efficient servers ● dvanced smart metering
A
states, and their calls to cut people us all up. It’s my library, my memories, E
scapist,
high quality immersive in cafes with special booths, or are
A self-employed consultant for Theos
●
free from what they see as the tyranny my music, and everything else that occasionally hired in for a party. Often
● E
nergy optimisation
home energy optimisation services, entertainment, centralised to maximise
of WEM. He can’t really imagine a brightens my day. Wouldn’t fancy life energy efficiency and to avert the government-subsidised to keep young ow power draw
L
David boosts his income by swapping
●
workable alternative. much without it.’ need for personal ownership of people occupied.
goods and services with his friends ● mbient light-collecting displays
A
and contacts. Last week he traded a Juma: ‘Our solar panels are an absolute David hopes that he and Juma will expensive, power-hungry hardware ● onvergence – a home hub
C
● N
o-refresh e-paper displays
spare virtual Glastonbury ticket that godsend. We’ve been able to save and eventually become energy-independent. ● ong-lasting hardware that minimises
L managing all domestic technical needs
he managed to wangle at work for an trade quite a bit of energy. David’s trying If they can score some more solar expensive development and distribution and entertainment, complemented by ● I ndividual carbon trading
amazing aeroponic* system for growing to save some carbon to fly out to see panels, he might even be able to make ‘on the go’ small portable devices.
evices that provide some ‘time off’
D ● rading algorithms
T
his sister and her newborn baby. He’s enough money trading spare carbon on
●
tomatoes. Inside the flat, David’s pride
for the owner by (efficiently) taking • Energy monitoring and management
and joy is his new WEMatic 700c. putting in extra hours on his rowing the markets to give up his day job and ● P
ersonal trading assistants
care of energy optimisation technology to track carbon quotas
machine – our neighbour Trevor has concentrate on his passion – music.
and share collective reduction targets.
hacked the machine so that it feeds evices that can capture, store or sell
D
David: ‘There’s a bit of a boom in
●
WEM uses sophisticated facial/
straight into the household system.’ on energy Glossary
old-style acoustic music at the moment. gait recognition technology to track
Last weekend was Juma’s birthday, so Juma used to laugh at me practising ● reater functionality through
G individuals’ actions. Aeroponic – a system for growing
they threw a virtual Pacha club night. It on my old six-string but now I can software upgrades plants without soil, using exact doses of
• Energy data collection built into
used up a major chunk of their carbon use it to earn a few credits gigging at nutrients delivered by water mist. The
all consumer electronics, with
savings, even with the bring-a-carb the beerplatz.’ plant roots are literally in the air.
interfaces in home hubs and personal
donations from their friends’ quotas,
monitors to manage and forecast a Piezoelectricity – electricity generated
but it was worth it just to get back to the
consumer’s use, and software to help when pressure is applied to certain
hedonistic heyday of the ‘90s.
ration management. solid materials.
22 234
The Scenarios
2011: Indicators of Change
4. Prosperity ʻWeak signals’ which could trail tomorrow’s
Prosperity Redefined scenario.
Redefined ● growing interest in doing good is
A
being facilitated via mobile. An Orange
app signposts bite sized mobile
volunteering opportunities whilst
Vodafone’s JustTextGiving app enables
free text donations to UK charities.
www.mobilevolunteering.co.uk ● Greeks
are responding to hard times
by using local trading systems in
quality of life shift has been
A
lieu of structured currency. The Volos
●
identified in post-earthquake Japan,
network has grown by 800% in the
with increased value placed on
past year, with users expressing a
personal relationships and the good
sense of freedom when using the new
of society, and less value attached to
An Overview material goods ownership. Sharing
‘part alternative currency, part barter,
part open-air market’ system.
models are viewed more favourably,
After an extended recession, new priorities of ‘wellbeing’ and ‘quality of life’ and there’s much more emphasis on
http://nyti.ms/pAqi6v
are bubbling up across the world as more sustainable forms of living become energy conservation and optimisation. ● The
geographically-limited Vibe local
Simple, durable material goods social network is designed to allow
established. Society’s new values are built on this sustainability, and on are favoured. students at colleges or people at
stronger community ties. Technology facilitates collaboration at both local http://bit.ly/n5kOfb outdoor events to post the kind of
things they wouldn’t post on Twitter,
and global levels. ● Denmark
often tops the quality of
because it wouldn’t make sense to
life lists. Taxes are very high, but in
wider follower groups – it’s very local.
exchange the government covers all
http://bit.ly/nXBPDq
health care and education, prioritises
equality and administers the world’s ● According
to the latest US Census,
highest per capita spend on children communal living is on the increase,
and the elderly. The result is a with the number of 25-34yr-olds living
happy population. with parents up by 25.5% from 2007 to
http://abcn.ws/plfDXB spring 2011.
http://bit.ly/pEm2iB
California-based
adventure equipment
4. Prosperity Redefined
●
company Patagonia is asking its ● Jawbone
has released a health-
customers to buy less of its products. monitoring wristband which allows
They have teamed up with eBay in you to transmit eating, sleeping and
the Common Threads Initiative general activity data back to your
which aims to supplant new-product smartphone. Combined with manually-
purchasing with participation in a entered data on meals, it gives you
dedicated used-clothing marketplace nutritional information and suggests
for Patagonia gear. healthy activities.
http://bit.ly/oDsP5j http://bit.ly/o8w8ez
24 25The Scenarios
2025: Prosperity Redefined, In Detail
In this value-shifted world, people care much more Traditional interest in goods ownership
is inexorably being replaced by a new
about well-being and quality of life than they do about and greater interest in goods access as
conspicuous consumption. most people can’t afford to keep buying
hardware. Gadgets take second place to
It’s the fallout from the lost decade of 2009-2019, beneficial software, apps and services.
Traditional jobs are no longer the
when financial crisis and austerity forced many central focus of daily life. Most people
countries to trial new economic models. As economies prefer to spend more time on personal
development, learning, creativity, and
flat-lined, key resources like oil declined, and China reconnection to the community.
continued to rise, more and more Western people But not everyone buys into the new
shifted into part-time working patterns in a bid to keep measures of personal and national
success. Some countries are trying
their jobs.
to lure businesses by advertising
themselves as proponents of old-
By 2020, the concept of unthinking Young people pioneered and Now, in 2025, there’s a much greater style growth and an alternative to the
consumption had been consigned to popularised exchange networks for interest in contributing to society than ‘stagnating economies’.
history’s dustbin. Times were hard, time, skills, goods and services, taking there is in taking from it. The old focus on
but the surprise silver lining was a money out of the equation and creating GDP and the growth treadmill has been
gradual reconnection with neighbours, more time for families, volunteering replaced by an interest in the idea of
and the rediscovery of richer and outside interests. The expense of ‘prosperity without growth’. These days,
relationships. Community networks international flights helped to strengthen countries compete for bragging rights to
and co-operatives came into their own local community ties. The world was still the highest quality of life, cleanest air,
as people across the developed world vibrant and connected, and adventure- and most creative populace.
sought better value goods and services seekers still travelled long distances –
Technology is often used to make the
and scaled down consumption. but mainly by train and ship.
invisible visible, and to help people
Research suggested that most were make better decisions. Poor usage
happy to leave the old ways behind patterns of energy and water at both
in favour of well-being, quality of life, household and neighbourhood levels
4. Prosperity Redefined
and community vitality. A continuing can be identified, prioritised and
emphasis on cross-cultural learning, remedied. Admittedly, the pace of
international collaboration in research technology development has been
and development, and a world culture slowed by higher durability expectations
of music, games and film (increasingly for hardware, but that’s often shared
influenced by Chinese tastes) didn’t anyway to save money.
brake a parallel resurgence in regional
cultural expression.
26 27The Scenarios
A 2025 life: Ulrike Technology
50 year-old Ulrike lives in a four- Technology needs in 2025
bedroom house with her son Stefan
Overarching requirements from
(17), her father Niklas (78) and her
technology are that it should
grandmother Lena (99).
Help
people live healthy lives
Ulrike: ‘I can’t imagine life without the Technology solutions in 2025
●
She remembers only too well the
economic instability of the 2010s. Now Window, to be honest – it keeps me ● Help
people stay connected to friends
● he cloud reduces dependence on
T
she strongly believes that mutual support connected and lets me make sense of and family
unattainable hardware upgrades
is a pre-requisite for social cohesion. my hectic life!’
● Facilitate
active, involved and useful and allows the use of simple,
Ulrike: ‘My first priority is definitely my Ulrike is the hub of the family in more Stefan earns timebank credits by community roles for older people durable devices. 2025 and beyond: how might
family, and then the local community.’ ways than one. Both Niklas and Lena helping out at a community centre
● Be
easy to upgrade, durable, Algorithms
and simulators help technology progress?
once a week, and has weekend access
●
are monitored 24/7 by basic biosensors
She relies heavily on a Virtual Window* repairable, recyclable and efficient communities visualise and collectively Healthcare, preventative
to a shared electric driverless car in
supplied by the local doctor. Ulrike tracks
●
bought three years ago with a low- resolve problems about building medicine, telemedicine
the data to make sure that any meds exchange for doing chores like picking ● Connect
and enhance human
interest loan from the regional bank. houses, local energy generation etc.
they’re taking are working correctly. up Lena and Niklas’ favourite ale from potential, without being overpowering nderstanding and improving
U
By allowing her to chair online meetings
●
the neighbourhood microbrewery. Energy,
resource and water psychological and emotional well-being
Specific technology needs:
●
and present detailed designs without Niklas keeps pretty fit. He has a small
optimisers at the community level,
having to travel, the Window has paid workshop at the back of the house where Stefan: ‘I’m happy to do stuff for Promoting interpersonal
Biofeedback* measures to hold off ●
●
eg. local smart-grids and dual-
for itself many times over. he keeps his pride and joy, a 3D printer Granddad and Grandma. I know they’d understanding and communication
ageing and disease: brain-training use technologies.
that he built himself from an open-source do it for me.’
The terms of the loan stipulate that it games, tailored diets and exercises to Community
resource sharing
cost, energy-efficient health
●
design. His cottage industry produces Low
Yesterday, after an eye check via match biosensor information
●
should be made available for wider
spare parts for the neighbours and the monitoring devices and preventative Community
collective decision-making
the Virtual Window, Lena picked out
●
community use for 3 hours a week. Plan visualisation and cause-and-
local repair shop, and trades designs ●
medicines for ageing populations.
She’s happy to fulfil that condition, often some old photos for Stefan to take Meeting
energy storage/
effect diagnosis technologies to help
●
with other 3D printing enthusiasts. Niklas
to the benefit of the local community into school. Ulrike laughed at shots of Location-based
social networks management needs
large groups of people make long-
●
remembers the 2017 pension crisis.
design group which she leads. a fondly-remembered exotic holiday, for communication, skills exchange,
He feels that he still has something to term decisions
and then felt a momentary pang when sharing and renting.
Ulrike: ‘We’re planning to build another contribute and loves being part of the Time-effective creativity enhancers
she realised that what had been an ●
Glossary
makerspace with some other groups in open-source community.
everyday experience for her will be a Channels
for learning from, and
the area, so we used a simulation on the ●
Virtual Window: a combination of TV,
Stefan is the household’s most avid once-in-a-lifetime experience for Stefan. contributing to, other cultures
Window to check out the best sites for computer and telepresence device.
technology user. He loves virtual
water, energy and travel. Ulrike thinks deeply about sustainability Channels
for open-sourcing
games and virtual travel, though he still Makerspace: a community space with
●
at both the household and community
4. Prosperity Redefined
Ulrike’s frontline occupation is design spends most of his time in the real world ● Early-warning systems for extreme 3D printers, laser cutters, advanced
level. The family belongs to several
for health and well-being. Working because he can only use the Virtual climatic phenomena design software and other technology
sharing networks, and her well-insulated
freelance from home, she assembles Window when Ulrike has finished with it. needed to make complex items.
house has a rainwater tank for flushing Easy
accessibility to suit sharing across
teams on an ad-hoc basis from a
●
Stefan: ‘I’m just back from a school the toilets and watering the vegetable a wide range of people and age groups Biofeedback: technology that reads
massive worldwide network of contacts.
climbing and camping trip. Tonight I’m garden, and solar panels bought through signals from the brain and (through a
a mass community-purchase scheme.
● ong-term affordability
L
hoping to grab half an hour in the virtual headset) allows you real-time control
through durability
Amazon with my mate, learning how to over devices and focus-boosting brain
Ulrike: ‘I’m so thankful for the solar
be a tracker.’ activity games.
panels – we’d have to get by on half
the amount of energy if we didn’t have
them. Energy is so expensive now.’
28 29You can also read
