WEST0NS CIDER REPORT - Ashdale Business Consulting
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
WESTONS CIDER REPORT 2018 WEST0NS
CIDER REPORT
Welcome to the third edition of Westons Cider Report, our annual review of the cider marketplace,
trends & the cider consumer. We hope you find it an enlightening & enjoyable read.
Westons-Cider.co.uk © H. Weston & Sons Ltd, The Bounds, Much Marcle, Ledbury, HR8 2NQ 2018
WELCOME CIDER INDUSTRY HEADLINES
£2 BILLION .98
TO THE THIRD EDITION OF THE WESTONS CIDER REPORT
A note from HELEN THOMAS,
MD of Westons Cider & 4th Generation Westons Family Member
Welcome to the Westons Cider Report 2018, our annual review of the cider
marketplace.
CIDER IS WORTH £2.98 BILLION A YEAR IN THE UK,
The cider industry has once again evolved over the past year, it remains a
AND IS THE BIGGEST CIDER MARKET IN THE WORLD
resolutely dynamic marketplace with new brands, packaging and producers all
3.5 %
2.2 %
27 %
emerging over the past year. Fruit cider is now a firmly established part of the
cider marketplace, most notably in the on trade where draught fruit cider has
delivered cider category growth in a challenging marketplace, while
premiumisation and evolving formats have driven growth for cider in the off
trade. In many respects the cider marketplace is unrecognisable to what it was CIDER HAS CIDER VOLUMES FRUIT CIDER
a few years ago and it is this dynamism that makes the cider industry such an
GROWN IN VALUE HAVE GROWN IS NOW 27%
exciting place to work.
BY 3.5% IN THE 2.2% IN THE OF ALL
Looking forward to the next few years, the cider marketplace is not without LAST YEAR LAST YEAR CIDER SOLD
challenges; changes in consumption habits threaten many on trade outlets
800MILLION
where cider is drunk, while Minimum Unit Pricing threatens both pricing and
promotions at varying levels of the off trade marketplace. However, past
experience shows retailers, operators and cider makers will work together
to innovate and evolve to meet these challenges head on.
I hope you enjoy reading the Westons Cider Report 2018 and find it an
enlightening read.
THE UK CONSUMES 800 MILLION LITRES OF CIDER A YEAR,
TOM OLIVER of Oliver’s Cider, The real win though is the number of
takes a global view of the cider category millennials and younger men and woman
engaged in taking cider forward with a
ENOUGH TO FILL 5 MILLION BATH TUBS
and the exciting new North American
refreshing and vibrant approach,
cider producers emerging at this year’s
both makers and consumers.
53 47
CiderCon in Baltimore. CIDER CONSUMERS ARE...
45.5 % %
Consumers who value gluten free, variety,
%
The mantra at CiderCon 2018 in Baltimore was cider with food, innovative drinks and the
“Big Tent”. The growth of the US cider industry, comparatively lower alcohol, fruit based
where the few long established, find the many drink that cider is, fulfils all these desires.
fast growing, anything goes, band wagon
jumping producers emerging at speed. Cider is searching for its heart and soul,
in a very public arena, there will be winners OF ALL UK HOUSEHOLDS
Orchard based, “apple forward“ cider makers
MALE FEMALE
and losers but then, what do you expect?
alongside “cull juice multi ingredient batch” BUY CIDER
beverage producers. A real desire to make Cider is on the up.
this burgeoning cider scene work for all.
The surge of regional cider producers
ON TRADE OFF TRADE
is the latest manifestation of this growth.
VS
CONTENTS Westons Cider would like to thank the following contributors to the
Westons Cider Report 2018 CIDER VALUE SHARE
Written and compiled by
03 | Cider Industry Headlines
04 | Westons Updated Segmentation
16 | The On Trade Cider Drinker
17 | On Trade Recommendations
Matthew Langley – Insight & Innovation Manager
Emily Jenkins – Category Manager
62% 38%
Rebecca Mussell – Technical Manager
05 | The Decline of Value White Cider CideR in the Off TRade
Data Sources:
AVERAGE PRICE OF A PINT OF CIDER IN THE
06 | Fruit Cider, Here to Stay 19 | The Off Trade Marketplace
CGA On Premise Measurement Service, P12 2017 ON TRADE £3.68 UP 8P IN THE LAST YEAR
07 | Cider and The Health Agenda
08 | The Global Cider Marketplace
20 | Market Snapshot – Off Trade
22 | Cider Formats
CGA Outlet Index December 2017
IRI - Data 52 weeks to 6th January 2018
CIDER VOLUME SHARE
Kantar Worldpanel, Purchase data, Cider, 52 w/e 31st December 2017
CideR in the On TRade 23 | The Top 10…
36% 64%
Kantar WorldPanel Alcovision, Cider, 52 w/e 31st December 2017
11 | The On Trade Marketplace 24 | The Top 5… GlobalData – Data to December 2017
ONS, Adult Drinking Habits, May 2017
12 | Market Snapshot – On Trade 26 | The Cider Shopper and the Cider Drinker
ONS, Household Expenditure, January 2018
14 | The Top 5… 28 | Cider Retailers Just Drinks 2nd August 2017 AVERAGE PRICE OF A PINT OF CIDER IN THE
15 | Trends 30 | Off Trade Recommendations SIBA Members Survey 2018 OFF TRADE £1.25 UP 4P IN THE LAST YEAR
31 | Westons Guide to Tasting Cider Designed and produced by HRG UK Ltd
2H.Weston
© | Westons CideR
& Sons Ltd reserves RepoRt
all rights to 2018
copying, distribution |
& decompilation of this publication. Sources: IRI, CGA Strategy HEADLINES | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 3
WESTONS UPDATED SEGMENTATION THE DECLINE OF VALUE WHITE CIDER
It is over four years since we last reviewed our segmentation. Since then, both the cider marketplace and the cider Value White cider, that is cider typically of a strength of 7.5% ABV and often sold in 2 litre PET bottles (as per the full
brands that make it up have moved on. It is therefore time for a refresh. category segments description on the opposite page) have been in significant decline for some time.
In the last year this segment has lost 2.6% of value and volume sales.
We have now moved to a simpler, channel neutral, segmentation. Left to right, it recognises cider brands positioning from traditional through
to contemporary and top to bottom describes the brands positioning on a sliding scale from artisan through to commodity. It is an off trade only sector of the cider category and remains significant to off trade cider with over 48.8 million litres sold per year, representing
9.5% of the off trade cider category volume.
While in decline, it remains resilient despite the major multiples shunning the category. This is a sector of the market driven by independent grocers
CIDER SEGMENTATION and symbol groups, who collectively deliver 89.5% of value white cider’s volume.
Traditionally, value white ciders are perceived by many commentators as ciders that are often drunk to excess or irresponsibly, while this Cider Report
ARTISAN has no detail on consumption habits to prove or disprove these claims, the market data makes it clear value white cider is in decline.
CONTEMPORARY
New Duty Band & Minimum Unit PRicing
CRAFTED
TRADITIONAL
Significantly, two pieces of legislation have emerged in the last year that have presented themselves as a potential solution to irresponsible or excessive
consumption that many fall at the door of value white cider in the off trade, a new 6.9% + duty band and Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP). Both potentially
could detrimentally affect the volumes of value white cider, however, as with much legislation there may be unintended consequences.
PREMIUM The 6.9% duty band will effectively encourage value white cider producers to lower their ABV, from a typical 7.5% for a value white cider to 6.8%.
For a 2 litre bottle of value white cider, this will remove 1.4 units per 2l bottle. While the legislation may help in achieving the stated aim of removing
units of alcohol sold, it will have limited effect on the volume of cider sold.
MAINSTREAM 50p per unit of alcohol Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) will be introduced in Scotland on 1st May 2018 and is likely to come into force in Wales before the
end of 2018. One unit of alcohol being 1% alcohol per litre of product sold, for example a 500ml bottle of 5% cider will have 2.5 units in it.
As a piece of legislation it is a fairly blunt tool. The data shows over 335 million litres of cider are sold below 50p a unit in the off trade, this represents
VALUE 65.4% of off trade cider volume, more importantly some unexpected products such as Thatchers Gold 10 x 440ml can, Bulmers 8 x 500ml bottle and
AMBER Strongbow Cloudy 10 x 440ml can are sold below 50p a unit.
Only 5.5 million litres of fruit cider are sold below 50p a unit, this represents 1.6% of sub 50p a unit cider volume and 4.7% of all off trade fruit cider sold.
VALUE
Clearly, the off trade cider category will have significant challenges from the impact of MUP, those just under 50p may be able to reformulate or absorb
WHITE
a price rise, those significantly below will be forced to increase the price or completely rethink their business model. Either way this coming year will
be a challenge for cider in the off trade.
COMMODITY
It is an inverted pyramid to acknowledge the nearer to a commodity a brand gets the harder it is for a cider brand to flex a traditional or
contemporary positioning.
SELECTED CIDERS PRICES & WHAT THE PRICE
THE SEGMENTS The segments can be described as follows: COULD BE WITH A 50P MINIMUM UNIT PRICING (MUP)
CRAFTED PREMIUM MAINSTREAM VALUE AMBER VALUE WHITE
ABV range of 4-8.4% ABV range of 4-5.5% ABV Range of 4-5.5% ABV of 6% & under ABV of 6% & above
Crafted is at the top end of The premium sector is Mainstream cider sits at the The value amber sector is Value white cider is a sector
the cider segmentation, where many of the middle of the cider where amber ciders that houses high ABV ciders
home to both the most established fruit cider category, and houses many marketed as a value sold on a value proposition.
traditional and brands are found, sitting of the larger volume cider proposition are found, There is no distribution for
contemporary products. just below crafted, these are brands, who enjoy high advertising support for these brands in the on
In the on trade, brands will brands that will have both advertising spend and high these brands is limited. trade, therefore it is a sector
typically be packaged in high advertising spend and brand awareness. In the on trade distribution that does not feature in the
single serve glass bottles, high brand awareness. In the on trade brands are is via draught, brands sold on trade market data.
keg or bag in box for In the on trade, brands are typically available on here are heritage brands In the off trade value white
draught serve. typically available in bottles, draught, in the off trade sold on a value proposition, brands are sold in 2 & 3l PET FROSTY JACKS THATCHERS GOLD CRUMPTON OAKS STRONGBOW STOWFORD PRESS
In the off trade, brands are though increasingly draught brands are typically therefore it is a small bottles, as well as cans. 3L PET BOTTLE 7.5% 10 x 440ML CAN 4.8% 2L PET BOTTLE 5% 20 x 440ML CAN 4.5% 4 x 500ML CAN 4.5%
typically packaged in single serve is available. packaged in cans, often in and declining sector in Distribution is entirely
serve glass bottles, though In the off trade, brands are multipacks and sold in both the on trade. convenience focused with CURRENT CURRENT CURRENT CURRENT CURRENT
increasingly single serve typically packaged in glass convenience stores and In the off trade, brands are very limited distribution in
multiple retailers. AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE PRICE
cans are an emerging bottles, often multipacks typically sold in either 2l PET the major multiples.
format. The distribution will and increasingly cans, these Example brands include bottles or cans, distribution Example brands include £4.17 £8.88 £2.62 £12.05 £4.30
be supermarket focused brands are distributed Strongbow (including Dark is convenience focused, Frosty Jacks, Omega
with many brands regional, through convenience and Fruit and Cloudy variants), price marked packs are a and Pulse. PRICE WITH PRICE WITH PRICE WITH PRICE WITH PRICE WITH
some key brands national. multiple retailers. Thatchers Gold, Stowford common feature. Many
brands are own label
A 50P MUP A 50P MUP A 50P MUP A 50P MUP A 50P MUP
Example brands include Press and Magners.
£11.25 £10.56 £5.00 £19.80 £4.50
Example brands include
Henry Westons Vintage, Rekorderlig, Kopparberg propositions.
Aspall Draught, and Old Mout. Example brands include
Cidersmiths, Hawkes Urban Woodpecker, Dry Blackthorn,
Orchard and Stassen. Hawksridge and Crofters.
4 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | Westons Updated Segmentation Sources: IRI THE DECLINE OF VALUE WHITE CIDER | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 5
FRUIT CIDER, HERE TO STAY CIDER AND THE HEALTH AGENDA
Fruit cider is now an important component of any retailer’s cider fixture, with retailers assigning anything up to half of The UK population as a whole is consciously adopting healthier lifestyle choices and moving to a healthier relationship
their cider fixture to fruit cider products, and cider makers large and small, mainstream and crafted, being increasingly with alcohol. The government’s own statistics show the UK is experiencing a decline in the total amount of alcohol
creative with the serves, flavours and propositions. consumed, combined with a rise in teetotalism.
However, fruit cider is a fairly new entrant to the cider category and was initially dismissed by many as a passing fad. Data from GlobalData shows that In 2002 the percentage of household expenditure on alcohol, tobacco or narcotics was 3.6%, in 2016 it was only 2.2%.
twelve years ago fruit cider barely registered in the UK market, in 2005 the 500,000 litres sold represented 0.08% of total cider volume sold, since then
it has consistently grown over the last twelve years to become 27% of the marketplace by the end of 2017. Weekly alcohol consumption is in decline across all age groups and genders, now only 57% of adults claim to have drunk alcohol in the last week,
down 6 percentage points in 10 years.
Fruit cider, with flavour profiles at the sweeter end of the scale is often accused of being RTD’s in all but name, however this sector of the cider category
has done much to revitalise cider by bringing in consumers who would otherwise not have entered the cider category. Younger consumers are drinking less than ever, 27% are now teetotal. Up 6 percentage points in 10 years. Crucially, teetotalism rises amongst younger
consumers in large urban areas such as London and Birmingham.
In the on trade, data from CGA Strategy shows that fruit cider is bringing in more females to the cider category. Females make up 60% of fruit cider
drinkers, compared to 47% of all cider drinkers. CGA also shows fruit cider is introducing a younger consumer to the cider category with 50% of fruit The industry is already responding to this, there is an increased focus in quality not quantity in drinks serves in all sectors of alcoholic drinks, with many
cider drinkers aged 18-34 compared to 36% of all cider drinkers being 18-34. operators and producers responding to the rise of the ‘Instagrammable serve’, where CGA Strategy have noted that 52% of 18-34 year olds have shared
an image of their meal or drink on a night out. Additionally, there has been a long term trend in both the on and off trade of consumers paying more to
Similarly, in the off trade, Kantar Worldpanel shows that the fruit cider shopper is younger with 48% of fruit cider shoppers aged under 44, while only drink less as volumes have declined while value has risen.
33% of shoppers for all cider are under 44.
Low/no alcohol products are rising in credibility and acceptance. Whilst a small area of the total drinks marketplace, it is growing with significant
So over the last twelve years, fruit cider has done an important recruitment job for the wider cider category, bringing in new consumers and driving innovation by drinks producers. It is a category now seen by consumers as a positive discovery choice based on taste flavour and experience rather
innovation through the myriad of new propositions in the marketplace. than having to choose something when “you’re not drinking”.
Fruit cider is clearly here to stay. If current growth continues at the same rate, fruit cider will be 48% of all cider by 2023. The implications and opportunities for the cider category are huge. Consumers are moving to focus on quality, taste and flavour over ABV, this means
that cider producers that focus on quality, heritage, provenance and craftsmanship are in a strong position. However, the challenge is for cider
producers to demonstrate these credentials with lower ABV products.
ON TRADE FRUIT CIDER OFF TRADE CIDER Cider as a sector has a huge ABV challenge, there are hardly any apple ciders below 4.5% ABV and almost all fruit ciders have an alcohol strength at
DRINKER DEMOGRAPHICS SHOPPER AGE PROFILE exactly 4% ABV. Compared to the beer marketplace, SIBA (Society of Independent Brewers) members beers average ABV is 4.2%,
with lots of beers in the 3-4% ABV band and very few beers produced and sold above 5% ABV.
BY AGE
To succeed in this new and evolving competitive consumer environment, cider makers, retailers and operators need
18-44 44+
18-34 35-54 55+ to work together to innovate to create visually appealing serves of great tasting ciders at a lower ABV.
100
27%
FRUIT 50% 38% 13%
80
52%
TOTAL 36% 38% 26%
60
67%
OF YOUNG
BY GENDER FEMALE MALE
40
ADULTS ARE TEETOTAL
57%
FRUIT 67% 33% 20 48%
33%
TOTAL 47% 53% 0
FRUIT ALL CIDER
OF ADULTS HAVE DRUNK
ALCOHOL IN THE LAST WEEK
MARKET SHARE IN THE UK SINCE 2005
52%
3% 3% 3%
100 5% 6% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 6%
9%
1%
1%
2%
3%
5%
9% 14% 18% 22% 25%
80 27%
OF 18-34’S HAVE SHARED
60 97% 97% AN IMAGE OF A MEAL OR
96%
94% 92% DRINK ON A NIGHT OUT
89%
87% 82%
40 78% 75% 72% 70% 67%
20
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
6 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | FRuit CideR, HeRe to Stay Sources: IRI, CGA Strategy, CGA Outlet Index, Sources: ONS, Just Drinks, CIDER AND THE HEALTH AGENDA | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 7
GlobalData, Kantar Worldpanel CGA Outlet Index, SIBA
THE GLOBAL CIDER MARKETPLACE
As Tom Oliver says in his foreword, cider has never been so exciting at a global level. Eight out of the top ten cider TOP TEN CIDER CONSUMING COUNTRIES
consuming countries are in growth, with Canada proving to be the star performer, growing at 20.5%.
#
1 UK #
2 SOUTH AFRICA
The UK consumes the most cider, at 800 million litres which is twice as much as the nearest country, however Ireland is the thirstiest cider drinking nation,
with average Irish citizen drinking 14.8 litres of cider a year. Other countries who have significant cider drinking populations are Australia and South Africa.
Fruit cider has a mixed presence across the top ten nations. South Africa, the second biggest cider marketplace, has no fruit cider sales registering, while 800M LITRES 280M LITRES
%APPLE A
0% PPLE
64
the UK, Ireland and Canada registered a significant proportion of fruit cider sales.
GROWTH 0.4% 10 GROWTH 7.0%
Cider production is now truly global, with multinational operations dominating the top ten producers. While the UK is by far the largest marketplace, only
two of the top ten cider producers (Westons and Thatchers) are UK owned and based operations. 12.18 LITRES 5.0 LITRES
Looking forward, the trend of increased globalisiation of production and consumption of cider and the growth in influence of fruit ciders is set to continue. CONSUMED CONSUMED
There is a clear wealth of opportunity across the globe for cider. 6% PER PERSON PER PERSON
PEAR 7% PER YEAR PER YEAR
D
E
2
FLAVOUR
TOP 10 GLOBAL CIDER DISTRIBUTORS
#
1 #
2 #
3 USA
98
%APPLE
195M LITRES
GROWTH -5.0%
#
4 AUSTRALIA
82
%APPLE
175M LITRES
GROWTH 2.4%
0.6 LITRES 7.2 LITRES
CONSUMED CONSUMED
9%
PEAR
PER PERSON PER PERSON
%
3 4
PER YEAR PER YEAR
9
# #
2% FLAVOURED
FLAVOURED
#
5 SPAIN
97
%APPLE
108M LITRES
GROWTH 3.5%
#
6 CANADA
76
%APPLE
86M LITRES
GROWTH 20.5%
2.4 LITRES 2.4 LITRES
#
5 #
6
CONSUMED CONSUMED
PER PERSON PER PERSON
3% PER YEAR 1% fl 23% PER YEAR
avo red
FLAVOURED PEAR u
#
7 ARGENTINA
A
0% PPLE
83M LITRES
#
8 FRANCE
83
%APPLE
76M LITRES
7 8
10
# #
GROWTH -6.2% GROWTH -2.9%
1.9 LITRES 1.1 LITRES
CONSUMED CONSUMED
10%
PER PERSON FLAVOURED PER PERSON
PER YEAR % PER YEAR
7
PEAR
#
9 #
10
#
9 IRELAND
93
%APPLE
71M LITRES
GROWTH 2.0%
#
10 GERMANY
84
%APPLE
68M LITRES
GROWTH 1.5%
14.8 LITRES 0.8 LITRES
CONSUMED CONSUMED
6%
FLAVOURED PER PERSON 1% PER PERSON
PER YEAR PEAR 5% PER YEAR
1
1%
PEAR FLAVOURED
8 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | THE Global CideR MaRketplace Sources: GlobalData, IRI THE GLOBAL CIDER MARKETPLACE | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 9
THE ON TRADE MARKETPLACE
ON TRADE
Cider in the on trade has been one of the strongest performing drinks categories over the past year.
While wine, RTD’s, beer, soft drinks and spirits volumes have all declined, cider has enjoyed volume growth
in 2017. Additionally, cider value growth has continued to outstrip cider volume growth, demonstrating that
cider’s volume growth has not been discount driven.
Cider & perry in the on trade is now worth £1.86 billion, this has been driven
by sales of 2,865,716 Hl and is at 0.3% MAT growth, whilst value is in growth of CIDER & PERRY IN THE
ON TRADE IS NOW WORTH
1.86
2.4% MAT, equating to an increase in category value of £42.7 million. The drivers
of this on trade growth are fruit cider, draught cider and crafted cider.
£
Fruit cider represents 36% of all cider volume sold in the on trade and is now
worth £714.9 million, up 10.1% volume and 11.5% in value. This dynamic
continues to be driven by draught variants of fruit cider, however, the evidence is
BILLION
that draught fruit cider is beginning to cannibalise packaged fruit cider as the latter
declines. Draught fruit cider, which previously had seen dramatic triple digit %
value and volume growth, still has impressive growth, but this has now slowed
down to 38.0% volume growth and 41.4% value growth.
While the sub category is described as fruit cider, there are very few propositions
that are something other than berry flavoured in some way, it may better be FRUIT CIDER VOLUME IN THE
described as a berry cider category. This does mean that meaningful innovation ON TRADE REPRESENTS
36 %
opportunities must happen away from simple flavour extensions. For example,
draught fruit cider has many opportunities to premiumise and build on the success
Strongbow Dark Fruit has had in establishing fruit cider as a draught proposition.
Pear cider has continued its steep decline (-22.6% in volume) and now represents
less than 2% of cider sales, however pear cider still enjoys significant distribution,
£714.9
suggesting operators and suppliers have not yet caught up with the consumer, NOW WORTH
who moved on from pear cider some time ago.
Apple cider on the surface has had a choppy year, where value (-1.6%) and volume
(-3.7%) are both in decline. However, this masks a more complex dynamic within
MILLION
apple cider. The largest apple cider brand remains Strongbow with 22.3% volume
market share, however Strongbow has seen declines of –9.0% volume and -8.2%
value. On trade apple cider with Strongbow excluded grew by 2.0%.
Demonstrating that beyond Strongbow, the wider apple cider category is looking
much healthier, with the next three biggest apple cider brands (Thatchers Gold,
Magners Original and Stowford Press) all in value and volume growth.
Draught cider represents 71% of all cider sold in the on trade. Draught cider has
PEAR CIDER HAS CONTINUED
ITS STEEP DECLINE
-22.6
seen growth in both value (+6.8%) and volume (+4.5%), while packaged cider has
seen declines in both value (-5.0%) and volume (-8.8%). This churn is driving a
movement of cider from the back of bar in the fridge to the front of bar on tap.
Cider has seen significant inflationary pressures in 2017, where the average price
%
per litre has increase 13p to £6.47, this works out as inflation of 2.2% for the year
putting on trade cider broadly in line with the CPI inflation rate of 2.7%, apple cider IN VOLUME
has increased 13p a litre to £6.13, while fruit cider has decreased 8p a litre to £7.03.
Draught cider follows the overall trend with an increase of 13p to £5.93 a litre,
while packaged cider has increased by 32p a litre to £7.81 a litre. Much of this
DRAUGHT CIDER REPRESENTS
71
appears to be driven by significant above inflation price rises on the Bulmers
portfolio of packaged ciders.
Of the three business models used in the on trade, Free Trade makes up 49%
share of cider volumes, while Managed outlets make up 28% and Leased and
%
Tenanted 23%. Free Trade (+1.0%) and Managed outlets (+0.8%) have experienced
marginal growth in their cider volumes while Leased and Tenanted outlets (-2.0%)
experienced marginal declines in their cider volumes, this is a continuation of the
OF ALL CIDER SOLD
trend we have seen for the last few years, where L&T cider volumes have been in IN THE ON TRADE
long term decline.
Looking at the cider marketplace regionally, for the second year running the
only region not experiencing value growth is London where the market value is LONDON IS THE ONLY REGION NOT
declining by -3.3%. The drivers for this decline in London is a steep value decline EXPERIENCING VALUE GROWTH
DECLINING BY
-3.3
in pear cider of -39.8% and packaged cider of -7.6%. London historically has been
%
a region that overindexes on packaged cider. Draught cider value however has
held up at 0.3% growth.
10 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | Sources: CGA Strategy THE ON TRADE CIDER MARKETPLACE | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 11
MARKET SNAPSHOT - ON TRADE
£1 BILLION .86 CIDER VOLUME CIDER VOLUME CIDER VOLUME
BY FLAVOUR BY TENURE BY SECTOR
63%A nst
ream6
P 3%
6
NTE
D ai 1.7% GROWTH %
IS SPENT ON CIDER & PERRY IN THE ON TRADE +2.4% YOY TE
NA m
71 29
2
PL
&
% %
SED
E
LEA
%
DE
- 3% YOY
E TRA
49
+ 3% YOY
36
FRE
5%
2M8ANA
FR %
%
VALUE 9% 2
M E
UIT
GE
2% D AMBER0%
-52.1% DECLINE PREMIUECLIN
D
-6.3%
PEAR CRAFTED
16.9% GROWTH
OF ON TRADE VOLUME IS DRAUGHT SERVE IS PACKAGED SERVE
287MILLION
REGIONAL PATTERNS OF CONSUMPTION
% OF CIDER YOY % VOLUME CHANGE
VOLUME BY REGION
LITRES OF CIDER & PERRY ARE CONSUMED +0.3% YOY
THAT’S 505 MILLION PINTS!
£3 2.2 .68 %
SCOTLAND SCOTLAND
7% +4.6%
NORTH NORTH
EAST EAST
6% +3.8%
AVERAGE PRICE FOR A PINT OF CIDER ON TRADE CIDER INFLATION IS 2.2% YORKSHIRE YORKSHIRE
LANCASHIRE 10% LANCASHIRE +0.7%
11% -0.9%
ON TRADE CIDER DRINKERS ARE...
53 47
% %
MIDLANDS ANGLIA MIDLANDS ANGLIA
17% 6% +1.0% +4.4%
HARWEST HARWEST
WALES WALES
5% LONDON LONDON
+1.0%
15% -4.4%
HARWEST HARWEST
ENGLAND ENGLAND
MALE FEMALE 13% -1.9%
SOUTHERN SOUTHERN
10% +2.1%
12 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | MARKET SNAPSHOT - ON TRADE Source: CGA Strategy Source: CGA Strategy MARKET SNAPSHOT - ON TRADE | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 13
(note some percentages have been rounded up)
THE TOP 5... TRENDS
TOP 5 DRAUGHT CIDERS INFLATIONARY PRESSURE OR PREMIUMISATION?
The top five draught ciders account for 76.1% of total draught cider sales, down 0.9% from 2016. Collectively, the top Cider has seen price inflation of 2.1% in the last year,
five have grown 3% in the last year. The top five have lost market share, while still experiencing growth, this shows that meaning the average pint of cider has risen from £3.60 to £3.68.
draught cider in the on trade is in a healthy position as both leading and challenger brands are experiencing growth. Packaged cider was one of the biggest drivers for this,
2.1% 4.2%
seeing the price per pint rise 4.2% from £4.26 to £4.44.
#
1 #
2 #
3 #
4 #
5
Much of the increase in price does appear inflationary as, while
more premium brands such as Mortimer’s Orchard have seen
impressive growth, there have been price rises on individual
PRICE PRICE
INFLATION INFLATION
brands across the on trade - Strongbow Dark Fruit for example
has increased in price by 3.6%. Additionally, these price rises
STRONGBOW
STRONGBOW
DRAUGHT BOTTLE
DARK FRUIT
are broadly in line with the UK Consumer Price Index of 2.7%.
THATCHERS
STOWFORD
SOMERSBY
PRESS
CLOUDY CIDER GROWTH
GOLD
5 brands in the top 20 draught ciders are cloudy
cider products, Strongbow Cloudy, Old Rosie,
Thatchers Haze, Addlestones and Rosie’s Pig.
Collectively these brands now account for 99,846hl,
Further down in the top 20, Strongbow Cloudy (+175%) and Thatchers Haze (+203%) have both delivered impressive growth. Cloudy draught cider
is now clearly establishing itself as a standalone drinks category beyond a niche. Mortimer’s Orchard (+45%) is delivering strong growth while offering which represents 4.9% of all draught cider volume.
one of highest draught pint prices in the on trade at £4.27, showing consumers are still willing to trade up. While this appears a relatively small niche it is fast growing, up 58%
year on year, and delivers a price premium to draught cider of 24p
a pint. The main driver of cloudy cider growth is distribution, up 72%
TOP 5 PACKAGED CIDERS to 9,957 taps in outlets, this shows that outlets have actively invested
in the concept of cloudy cider. Clearly, cloudy cider is an area of the
cider category that is worth watching for further development.
The top five packaged products account for 51.1% of packaged cider volume. Three of the top five ciders are fruit ciders.
This is a category that – while in decline due to the rise of draught fruit cider – is getting sweeter in its taste profile as
the sweeter Strawberry and Lime variant of Kopparberg has overtaken the slightly more astringent mixed fruit variant.
#
1 #
2 #
3 #
4 #
5
STRONGBOW CANNIBALISATION
REKORDERLIG
KOPPARBERG
KOPPARBERG
STRAWBERRY & LIME
At a total brand level, Strongbow has grown 8.5% in volume year on year to 1,108,5457 hl,
STRAWBERRY & LIME
this by any measure is an impressive performance for a cider brand that already has
ORIGINAL (APPLE)
ORIGINAL (APPLE)
MAGNERS
BULMERS
38.7% volume share of the cider category. However, this headline performance masks
a picture that suggests that Strongbow Dark Fruit is cannibalising the apple sub brand to
MIXED FRUIT
drive overall brand performance.
Overall distribution on Strongbow is marginally down 1.6% year on year to 54,127 distribution points, suggesting net
distribution on the total Strongbow brand is neither growing or declining. However, there is a churn of what is making
up this headline number. Last year the value mix of the Strongbow brand was 69% Apple, 29% Dark Fruit and
2% Cloudy, this year the value mix has changed somewhat to 57% Apple, 38% Dark Fruit, and 5% Cloudy. Strongbow
is now in a position where just over half of the brand’s sales are coming from the core apple brand in the on trade.
The next five SKU’s in the top 10 represent 17.2% of packaged cider volumes and include fruit ciders from Rekorderlig, Bulmers and Magners cider brands.
Pear is not represented at all in the top ten, reflecting the wider decline in pear cider seen across the cider category in all channels.
14 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | THE TOP 5... Source: CGA Strategy Source: CGA Strategy TRENDS | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 15
THE ON TRADE CIDER DRINKER ON TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS
36
ON TRADE CIDER DRINKERS % RECOMMENDED DRAUGHT STOCKING
BY GENDER % The rise of fruit cider on draught has evolved the offer on bar over the last year and the rise
of draught fruit cider has ensured that this is no longer a choice over which apple ciders will
deliver the best return, fruit ciders should also be considered.
1 2 3+
OF CIDER DRINKERS
APPLE 49% 51% DRINK IN THE
ON TRADE WEEKLY
TAP TAPS TAPS
FRUIT 67% 33%
35 %
OF CIDER DRINKERS
EAT OUT WEEKLY
If there is only one tap on the
bar than this should be an apple
cider that reflects and reinforces
the positioning of the outlet.
The draught offer should be
apple as draught apple is the
majority of draught serves. If
Two taps provide the opportunity
for bar managers to offer an
incremental trade up opportunity
on the second tap. Having two
taps for cider also offers the bar
manager the opportunity to offer
fruit cider on the second tap.
If three taps or more are
available then typically these
will be high volume cider
outlets and this provides the
bar operator the opportunity
to provide variety and choice
on the bar while delivering
98
there is only one tap for cider If Strongbow Dark Fruit is chosen some context and
£
TOTAL 47% 53% then fruit cider should remain as the fruit offer, the evidence something interesting.
in the fridge. shows that bars can deliver
incremental revenue for the outlet
by stocking a premium trade up
FEMALE MALE from Strongbow to something like
Stowford Press as the apple offer.
Overall cider is enjoyed by men and women equally, as is apple cider, making cider CIDER DRINKERS
a very gender neutral category. Fruit cider, however, is drunk by significantly more
SPEND AN AVERAGE
OF £98 A MONTH ON RECOMMENDED PACKAGED STOCKING
females than males, with females making up 67% of fruit cider drinkers. EATING OR DRINKING
OUT, DOWN £11 ON It would be remiss to suggest there is a conclusive one size fits all solution for packaged cider stocking, it very
2016 much depends on the outlet, it’s offer, the size of the fridge and the consumers coming through the door. It should
be remembered that packaged cider is often the only option for venues such as casual dining outlets, as they will
49 %
not have the cellar facilities for draught serve.
ON TRADE CIDER DRINKERS % BY AGE Operators should follow a “right brand right outlet” approach, where the packaged cider’s positioning is reflective of the outlet’s positioning.
Fortunately, today’s cider marketplace offers a near endless choice, permitting operators to really fine tune their offering. As a general rule,
packaged fruit cider is more suited to higher tempo occasions in wet led outlets, while packaged apple cider is more suited to lower tempo
occasions in dry led outlets. Below are some recommendations based on space available in the bar fridge.
APPLE 31% 37% 33% OF CIDER DRINKERS
PREFER DRAUGHT
1 2 3+
51
CIDER
%
BOTTLE BOTTLES BOTTLES
If there is no cider on tap on the If there is no draught serve If there is space for three
front of bar and there is only room in outlet then the operator or more bottles, the operator
FRUIT 49% 35% 16% for one bottle of cider in the should consider one has the freedom to experiment
fridge, then this should be an packaged apple cider and one with the range, though to ensure
OF CIDER DRINKERS apple cider, as apple cider is still packaged fruit cider. If apple all bases are covered, at least
PREFER PACKAGED the most popular variant of cider. cider is offered as a draught one bottle should be an apple
If an apple cider is offered on the serve, then the two bottles variant and one bottle
CIDER
front of bar, then this provides an should be fruit cider. should be a fruit variant.
opportunity for fruit cider to be
TOTAL 36% 37% 27% the packaged option in the fridge.
18-34 35-54 55+
When considering the age profile of the cider drinker, total cider has a fairly even
43 %
OF CIDER DRINKERS
SAY QUALITY OF CIDER
IMPORTANCE OF A DAZZLING DISPLAY
& A STAND OUT SERVE
CGA notes that 52% of 18-34 late night consumers have uploaded to social media an image of their food or drink on
a night out. The implication of this is that the quality of cider serve in outlet is more important than ever, it should be
AVAILABLE AFFECTS enticing, appetising and most importantly Instagrammable. Both before purchase at point of sale and during purchase
spread of consumers across the age groups. Fruit cider, however, is significantly THEIR DECISION TO
DRINK CIDER IN THE while being consumed.
younger with nearly 50% of fruit cider consumers aged 18-34.
ON TRADE Cider producers therefore need to take time to invest in their glasses, draught taps and bottles to ensure that they catch the eye, are photogenic
and need to be shared. This is no longer an area where cider producers can be complacent.
16 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | the On TRade cideR dRinkeR Source: CGA Strategy Source: CGA Strategy ON TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 17
THE OFF TRADE MARKETPLACE
OFF TRADE
Consumers spend £1.12 billion on cider & perry in the off trade, which means
the category accounts for 7.4% of what they spend on total beer, wine and OFF TRADE
spirits in this channel. The category has grown by 5.3% in the 52 weeks ending PERFORMANCE
6th January 2018 (MAT): this is an upturn in performance compared to the
+1.0% seen in the previous 52 weeks. Volume is in growth of +1.6%, ahead of PENETRATION
45.5%
-0.4 YOY
total BWS growth of +0.7%. The off trade accounts for 38% of total cider
£ sales, and 64% of volume. OF HOUSEHOLDS
BUYING CIDER P/A
There are indicators of trends in both premiumisation and a more adventurous consumer.
Category value is growing ahead of volume, and this report shows that most category growth lies
in crafted cider (+22.0%). In 2017 a number of craft ciders in 330ml cans have been introduced, FREQUENCY
10.9
enabling consumers to trade up within the category, and building on demand for craft beer.
+0.1VISIT
There is still opportunity for more distribution for crafted cider as this stands at 92% in the off trade.
Pear cider/perry continues to decline (-4.2%) as retailers and manufacturers still appear to regard SHOPPING TRIPS
it as just one of many cider flavours, rather than a cider style in its own right. Pear cider has retained FOR CIDER P/A
97% distribution in the off trade and this should be considered as consumers have moved on.
Fruit cider continues to deliver strong performance. The rate of growth is +11%, and fruit now accounts
for 33.5% of cider value. One of the interesting movements in fruit cider in the last year has been in the VOLUME
packaging. Last year 61% of fruit cider value was in glass bottles, these now account for just 54% of
33.0
+1.4 Litres
share while cans make up 46%. Canned fruit cider has seen year-on-year value growth of +31.8%,
whereas bottled fruit cider has declined. AVERAGE NO. OF LITRES
HOUSEHOLDS BUY P/A
Within the off trade, the growth seen in the convenience and independent grocers sub channels
continues to indicate a clear trend of consumers moving toward more impulse shopping missions
(little and often). The supermarket format has seen a volume decline of -1.2% year-on-year.
MARKET SHARE BY FLAVOUR %AP PLE
59 +3.6 OY
Y
By value apple is still by far the dominant flavour variant. Fruit has grown to become over 33%
of the category. Pear has declined to 8% share, so has become a less important part of the cider category
as retailers and brand owners increasingly place pear within the flavour segment.
Kantar data shows that shoppers of apple flavoured cider are the most committed in the category, with
twice the average weight of purchase of fruit cider shoppers. So the choice available enables the needs of
8%
all cider shoppers to be met, but ranges need to be balanced and it helps shoppers to navigate the category 3 PEAR
3
if there is not too much duplication on shelf. It is interesting that the share accounted for by fruit cider is %
slightly increased in the summer and at Christmas, likely for refreshment and for sharing respectively. +1 F
1.0 RUIT
-4.2 YOY
YO Y
MARKET SHARE BY SEGMENT 47%
STREAM C
AIN ID
Cider is a large category, so to help us navigate we divide the cider market in the off trade M E
R
into five segments. These have been refreshed since our previous Westons Cider Report.
• CRAFTED – Broadly single glass bottle brands from independent producers such as Westons.
9%
CRAFTED
• PREMIUM – Mostly glass bottle-led brands such as Kopparberg and Bulmers.
ER
CIDER
%
CID
• MAINSTREAM – Mainly can-led brands such as Strongbow and Thatchers Gold. %
6
12
6
2EMI
M
VALUE
%
U
• VALUE AMBER – Again largely PET bottle-led, amber cider such as Crumpton Oaks. WHITE CIDER PR
• VALUE WHITE – Largely PET bottle-led white cider brands such as Frosty Jacks.
VALUE
When market growth of the segments is considered, the premiumisation trend is once again AMBER CIDER
evident with crafted cider in fastest growth.
VALUE SALES % CHANGE VS YR AGO
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0% 22.0%
5.0%
4.1% 3.8% 7.5%
.0% -2.7%
-5.0% CRAFTED CIDER MAINSTREAM CIDER PREMIUM CIDER VALUE AMBER CIDER VALUE WHITE CIDER
18 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | Sources: IRI, Kantar WorldPanel THE OFF TRADE MARKETPLACE | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 19MARKET SNAPSHOT - OFF TRADE
£1 BILLION .12
CIDER VALUE BY RETAILER
%
45
13THER 25
.5%
CONSUMERS SPEND £1.12 BILLION IN THE OFF TRADE. +5.3% YOY O T
ES
%O
%
C
5%4
9 513
L
LID
%
I
ALD
WAITROSE
3%
MILLION
+ 2.2% YOY
CO-O
9%
45.5% OF UK HOUSEHOLDS BUY CIDER
33
P
DA
.0
%
AS
16
O
LITRES
M
RR
ISO
13 NS
SAINSBURY
’S
90% OF FRUIT FLAVOURS SOLD ARE 513 MILLION LITRES OF %
BERRY/MIXED DARK FRUIT FLAVOURS CIDER & PERRY ARE PURCHASED 12%
£2 BIG4 60%
.19
HOUSEHOLDS IN THE UK CONSUME AN
BY REGION
10
AVERAGE OF 33.0 LITRES OF CIDER A YEAR
.9
+ 2.8% YOY
£2.19 AVERAGE PRICE OF CIDER THE ‘BIG 4’ ACCOUNT FOR 66% OF ALL
PER LITRE IN UK SHOPS CIDER SALES. DOWN 1.8PPT VS. LAST YEAR THE AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD MAKES 10.9
CIDER CONTINUES TO HAVE A SOUTHERN BIAS SHOPPING TRIPS FOR CIDER A YEAR
WITH THE 5 MOST SOUTHERN TV REGIONS MAKING
CIDER VALUE CIDER VALUE UP 60% OF CIDER VOLUME SOLD
BY FLAVOUR BY PACK FORMAT PERFORMANCE OF TOTAL CIDER - VOLUME
59%A 3T5 % 10% 9% 20% 7% 15% 11% 11% 6% 12%
+3.6 P
TOTAL
TLE + 2.4 CIDER
BO Y
LONDON SOUTHERN WALES WSW ANGLIA MIDLANDS YORKSHIRE LANCASHIRE NORTH SCOTLAND
Y SS
EAST
PL
A
O
O
GL
Y
Y
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
E
15%
PLASTIC
PERFORMANCE OF TOTAL CIDER - VOLUME % CHG
33%+11.0
BOTTLE
-11.3 YOY 5.0%
4.0%
2.6% 4.8% 4.7%
R 4
3.0%
2.0% 1.7% 1.7%
FY
O U +1 8%
2.0% 1.6%
CA
1.2% 1.2%
NORTH
8%
Y IT 1.0% WALES WSW
EAST SCOTLAND
N
OTHER 1.0%
3.7 LONDON
SOUTHERN
ANGLIA
MIDLANDS
YORKSHIRE LANCASHIRE
YOY +8.3 YOY 0.0%
PEAR
-4.2 YOY
ALL REGIONS ARE IN GROWTH
20 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | MARKET SNAPSHOT - OFF TRADE Sources: IRI, Kantar WorldPanel MARKET SNAPSHOT - OFF TRADE | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 21
(note some percentages have been rounded up)CIDER FORMATS THE TOP 10...
CIDER BY PACK FORMAT % TOP 10 OFF TRADE CIDER MANUFACTURERS (excl. Own Label)
4+8
#
1 #
6
Can and glass bottle are the dominant pack formats in the cider category, N13.7 Y OY
CA Including...
with 48% of sales in cans, and 35% in glass bottles.
Plastic bottle cider is now 15% of the cider category and in decline
2.0% #
2 #
7
by 1.3% - an indication that the cider category is moving away from value
propositions into premium formats. Cans are the fastest growing format OTHER
YO Y
+8.3 YOY
3 8
overall, increasing share from the 43% seen in the 2017 report, and we
# #
15
%
are seeing the growth of craft cider in cans.
.4
PLASTIC
3T5TLE
%
+2
Single unit packs account for 50% of sales, and are in modest growth of 1.4% year-on-year. BOTTLE
4 9
4 packs make up 24.5% of the market and are in 13.4% growth. 10 packs are performing -11.3 YOY
# #
O
well with value growing by 34.3%. GLASS B
Some packaging innovations such as pouches have not proven a success in the category:
sales are down 79%. However, kegs have seen phenomenal growth having gone from
#
5 #
10
being worth £226K a year ago to be worth over £3.1M in the latest year. With great
opportunities for branding and visibility it will be interesting to see if this format
continues to grow in the next year.
OWN LABEL 91.6 There have been changes in the relative ranking of companies in the off trade in 2018 due to the acquisition
Own label is worth 7.2 % of the total cider category, up slightly from 7.1% +4 % of Rekorderlig by Molson Coors, and the growth of Thatchers. At the time of writing Molson Coors is poised
.0
to acquire Aspall. The figure above does not currently include Aspall Cider sales but we will see the impact
last year, and is in growth of +5.6%. This growth is a complete turnaround 6.4%
AOPY
Y
of this in next year’s report.
from the -3.3% decline seen last year. Retailers have moved into fruit PEAR
PLE
-11.3 YOY The top 10 cider manufacturers make up 86.8% of off trade cider value sales, very little change from the 85.5% seen in the last report,
cider with their own label and this is in growth of +126.1%, however at
within this Heineken remains the dominant manufacturer delivering 33.9% of UK cider £ sales.
just 2% share (was 0.9% share in our last report) fruit still has headroom 2.0% Kopparberg Cider of Sweden is still the number two cider manufacturer, delivering 9.3% value growth. Other leading cider manufacturers
to grow within own label. FRUIT in growth are Aston Manor (+3.4%), Thatchers (+49.3%) and Westons (+14.4%).
+126.1 YOY
In the total cider category fruit cider is worth 33.5% of all cider sold and the fastest growing
segment. Therefore, there is still an opportunity for retailers to innovate in fruit cider.
TOP 10 OFF TRADE CIDER PRODUCTS (excl. Own Label)
#
1 #
6
#
2 #
7
#
3 #
8
4 9
MIXED FRUIT
# #
STRAWBERRY & LIME
#
5 #
10
Strongbow (apple) accounts for 16.4% of total cider £ sales, so it’s performance has a significant impact on the total
cider category. Value is in decline of 3.8% year-on-year however this is being offset in the marketplace by the growth
of Strongbow Dark Fruit, which has achieved an increase in market share to 9.5% from 8.4% in our last report and
continues to grow.
Kopparberg shows that by focusing on two core flavour variants continued growth can be achieved. Thatchers Gold has moved up the rankings from
9th to 6th place. Frosty Jack’s has a 3.3% value decline as retailers continue to trade out of value propositions, yet Frosty Jack’s is still number seven in
the off trade without a single listing in any of the major multiple retailers, underlying the importance of the convenience route to market for the cider
category. Other than Strongbow Original and Frosty Jack’s all other brands in the top ten are showing growth. Henry Westons Vintage Cider continues
a strong performance growing at 12.8% year-on-year.
22 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | cideR foRmats Source: IRI Source: IRI THE TOP 10... | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 23THE TOP 5...
APPLE CIDER BRANDS (excl. Own Label) FRUIT CIDER BRANDS
Apple cider is still by far the largest flavour variant in the cider market place. It has grown by 3.6% over the last year. Fruit cider in the off trade is growing by 11% a year and is the strongest performing of the three flavour profiles.
Within apple cider there is a clear premiumisation trend, with crafted cider having increased by 20.2%, while value white There are no changes in the ranking of the Top 5 fruit cider brands vs. our last report.
apple cider declined by 3.0%. The top 10 apple cider brands (excl. own label) account for 68% of apple cider sales, with The total number of fruit cider brands with sales in the off trade has declined from 174 to 166.
over 300 cider brands making up the other 32%. Within this there were 13 new lines introduced in 2017.
#
1 #
2 #
3 #
4 #
5 #
1 #
2 #
3 #
4 #
5
UP FROM DOWN FROM DOWN FROM UP FROM 5TH DOWN FROM
5TH VS. OUR 3RD VS. OUR 4TH VS. OUR VS. OUR LAST 4TH VS. OUR
LAST REPORT LAST REPORT LAST REPORT REPORT LAST REPORT
Strongbow is the largest brand in apple cider (with 16.4% share of total cider). Despite many years of decline, Strongbow still accounts for 28.0% Strongbow Dark Fruit has become the largest flavoured cider, in turn the growth of this brand has moved fruit cider from being a glass bottle
of apple cider value sales in the off trade. The performance of apple Strongbow will inevitably have a disproportionate effect on the performance dominated category to one where cans have increased to 45.8% of fruit cider sales.
of apple cider.
Kopparberg, which is growing at 9.3% a year, has two core flavours - Mixed Fruit and Strawberry & Lime - which are both in continued strong growth.
Within the top 10 apple flavoured cider brands five are in double digit growth: Thatchers Gold, Henry Westons Vintage, K Cider, Crofters, and These two flavours (including alcohol free) now account for 80% of Kopparberg’s sales, down from 89% in our last report, so the portfolio has
Crumpton Oaks. The latter two brands show that although we are seeing premiumising within the market, there is still a role for Value Amber Cider. broadened with 20% of sales now coming from other products.
Bulmers Original and Stella Artois Cidre are experiencing significant declines, down 25.3% and 44.7% respectively. Within fruit the dominant flavour profile is berry flavours, making up 89.8% of total fruit cider sales. The only product in the top ten fruit cider
products not to be some form of berry/mixed dark fruit is Old Mout Kiwi and Lime ranked no.6 and in 0.6% growth. In 12th, 13th, and 14th place
we have 3 Passionfruit variants from Rekorderlig (+4.7%), Old Mout (-34.2%) and Smirnoff (+164.5%) respectively, so experimenting outside of the
norm can also sometimes pay off.
PEAR CIDER BRANDS INNOVATION
Pear cider (or perry) currently sits between two posts. On one hand there are the pear extensions of cider brands such We have seen some significant launches within the Cider category in the past year.
as Bulmers, on the other hand there are brands that ape wine credentials to establish their positioning in the
The top 5 launches are:
marketplace. It seems to be the latter category that is gaining traction within pear.
#
1 #
2 #
3 #
4 #
5 #
1 #
2 #
3 #
4 #
5
UP FROM DOWN FROM NEW ENTRY
3RD VS. OUR 2ND VS. OUR VS. OUR LAST
LAST REPORT LAST REPORT REPORT
CARLING JACK DANIELS ELK WARNING SMIRNOFF KOPPARBERG
BRITISH BLACK CIDER BLACKBERRIES MANDARIN RASPBERRY
FRUITS CIDER WORTH £3.8M WORTH £988K & PINK LIGHT CIDER
WORTH £9.3M GRAPEFRUIT WORTH £453K
IN THE LATEST WORTH £887K
52 WEEKS
Pear Cider continues to experience decline of 4.2% as a sub category. Within this there are 3 growing brands in the top 5: Lambrini (+4.6%), It is interesting that 3 of this top 5 – Carling, Jack Daniels, and Smirnoff - are brands established in other BWS categories. That the third place product
Country Manor (+9.4%), and Cassini Bianco (+25.9%). Mainstream and Premium Brands seem to be moving away from Pear, with Kopparberg is a craft cider 330ml single can demonstrates that the cider consumer is willing to try something new, as this format continues to establish itself.
(-13.6%), Bulmers (-20.0%), and Magners (-31.5%) all showing declines. It appears that the innovation is still mostly in fruit cider with 4 out of the 5 biggest new launches being fruit. The fifth is a cider flavoured with
Jack Daniels so apple cider isn’t represented here at all.
24 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | THE Top 5... Source: IRI Source: IRI THE TOP 5... | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 25THE CIDER SHOPPER AND THE CIDER DRINKER
When considering who buys and consumes cider in the off trade, there are two parties to consider; the cider shopper
and the cider drinker. All too often, the person buying cider for the household is not the same as the person drinking
the cider in the household. These two pages will give some insight as to who is the cider shopper and the behaviours
of the cider drinker.
THE CIDER SHOPPER THE CIDER DRINKER
BY INCOME MALE
ALONE
MIXED SEX
GROUP
15%
%
UK HOUSEHOLD
41 FEMALE
ALONE
The cider shopper is marginally BY GENDER
4%
AVERAGE more wealthy than the average
UK shopper, with 26% of cider 62.9% of cider is drunk by a mixed sex
shoppers earning over £40,000, MALE group or a mixed sex pair, highlighting
9%
compared to 22% of UK average PAIR the gender neutral position of the cider
CIDER shoppers earning over £40,000. category, appealing to both men and
SHOPPERS FEMALE PAIR women alike. Female groups have
2% increased from 1.6% last year to
1.8% of serves this year.
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
%
5% 22
£0 - £39,999 PA £40,000+ PA MIXED
FEMALE SEX PAIR
GROUP
2% MALE NONE OF BIG
GROUP THE NIGHT
OUTDOOR ABOVE SPECIAL
IN
BY AGE EVENT
BARBECUE/PICNIC
2%
CELEBRATION
PLANNED SOCIABLE
ROUNDING OFF
THE EVENING 5% 4% 4% OCCASION
7%
A DRINK BEFORE 3%
GOING OUT % FRIENDS/FAMILY
UNPLANNED
4
UK HOUSEHOLD
BY OCCASION
4%
5%
AVERAGE The cider shopper is older than
the UK average shopper, 67% of Cider drunk in the off trade is particularly
strong in low tempo occasions, such as staying
8%
cider shoppers are aged over 45, CATCH UP
compared to a UK average of 64%. in as a couple and a drink after work. The most
CIDER SHOPPERS popular drinking occasion, at 22% of serves,
is the Quiet Night-in. This has increased from
QUIET
20.5% of serves a year ago.
22%
NIGHT IN
7%
DRINK
AFTER
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% WORK
SHOPPER AGED UNDER 45 SHOPPER AGED 45+
9% 16%
FORMAL REGULAR/EVERYDAY
BY HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION MEAL
DINNER
STAYING IN AS
A COUPLE
DRINK
PARTY
6%
8%
%
UK HOUSEHOLD Cider shoppers are more likely WITH OR
33
AVERAGE to live in bigger households than NO FOOD
the UK average, 39% of cider WITHOUT FOOD
shoppers live in households with
3 or more people compared to 67% of cider serves are with some
CIDER SHOPPERS the UK average of 34% kind of food. However, it remains an
informal drink with only 14 of serves being
%
accompaniments to formal occasions.
31
INFORMAL
MEAL
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
22
%
1 & 2 MEMBER HHS 3 + MEMBER HHS
LIGHT
SNACK
26 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | The CideR ShoppeR and the CideR DRinkeR Source: Kantar Source: Kantar THE CIDER SHOPPER AND THE CIDER DRINKER | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 27
Worldpanel Alcovision Worldpanel AlcovisionCIDER RETAILERS
Cider sales in the off trade channel account for 64% of cider volume sales and 38% of cider value sales, the differential RETAILERS
between volume and value percentage is due to the price per litre achieved for cider in the off trade being much lower
than in the on trade. RETAILER % CIDER MARKET SHARE V % TOTAL GROCERY SHARE
Average price per litre in the off trade for cider currently stands at £2.19 vs. £2.13 a year ago. This means category inflation of +3.0% and means
the category is bucking the level of Total Alcohol and Tobacco inflation of +0.18% (ONS December 2017). This confirms the wider trend for cider
premiumisation described elsewhere in this report. 25
TESCO
25.1
CONVENIENCE V SUPERMARKETS
Apple cider is still by far the largest flavour variant in the cider market place. It has grown by 3.6% over the last year. 12.9
ASDA
Within apple cider there is a clear premiumisation trend, with crafted cider having increased by 20.2%, while value 16
white apple cider declined by 3.0%. The top 10 apple cider brands (excl. own label) account for 68% of apple cider sales,
with over 300 cider brands making up the other 32%. 13.8
Cider sales in supermarkets now stand at £534.5m and have recovered from a static YOY sales performance last year, to see 3.3% growth. SAINSBURY’S
Supermarkets now represent 47.5% of total cider sales, falling from 48.5% a year ago. 12.2
Convenience cider sales have increased to £555.6m and the growth rate has increased to 7.3%, so convenience has now overtaken supermarkets
and now represents 49.4% of total cider sales. 9.8
MORRISONS
The convenience growth rate is significantly ahead of supermarkets demonstrating the continuing importance of the convenience channel to the
cider category, there is no reason to believe that convenience won’t continue to win share from the supermarkets.
12.8
5
CO-OP
CIDER RETAILER BREAKDOWN 8.9
CIDER SHOPPER DEMOGRAPHICS BY RETAILER
40
4.9
WAITROSE
ASDA 2.6
M&S
35 ALDI 6.1
CO-OP
TESCO ALDI
MORRISONS SAINSBURY’S 5.4
TOTAL CIDER
% OF SHOPPERS AGED UNDER 45
LIDL
30 4.4
LIDL
3.8
TOTAL
25 INDEPENDENTS 1.1
& SYMBOLS INDEPENDENTS
YOUNGER
& SYMBOLS
4.8
TOTAL
20 GROCERY
3.5
WAITROSE M&S
MORE AFFLUENT 0.6 CIDER
15
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
% OF CLASS ABC1 % SHARE OF SPEND
This chart maps the age and demographic profiles of cider shoppers for each retailer. Waitrose and Marks & Spencer Tesco has the largest market share of cider and overtrades very slightly in cider vs. total grocery.
have the most premium cider shopper. The overtrade was more pronounced last year, but a loss of cider share has eroded this overtrade.
Tesco, Aldi and Morrisons cider shoppers all sit fairly close to the average cider shopper, in a similar picture to that seen in last year’s report, all reflecting Sainsbury’s is the only retailer in the big 4 to undertrade in cider. Asda and Morrisons have a clear overtrade in cider versus their share of total grocery.
their focus on a mainstream offer. It is also notable that the convenience channel, through the likes of The Co-Op, independents and symbols, overtrades significantly in cider.
This again highlights the importance of this channel to the cider category.
Waitrose and the independents have the oldest cider shopper of any of the retailers, while Asda hold the greatest appeal to cider shoppers under 45. M&S
has made a significant move from an older shopper in the last report, towards a younger shopper this year – their launch of a 330ml single can craft cider Aldi and Lidl have gained cider share since our last report, however they continue to undertrade vs. their share of total grocery.
range may have had an influence here.
28 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | CideR RetaileRs Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Purchase Data Source: Kantar Worldpanel, Purchase Data CIDER RETAILERS | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 29OFF TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS WESTONS GUIDE TO TASTING CIDER
CONVENIENCE STORES At Westons, we hold a tasting session of the ciders we are making every morning at 9.30am. The panel is made up of
expertly trained cider tasters, recruited from roles all around the cider mill.
Typically, a convenience store
will have a 2.5 metre refrigerated RECOMMENDED CONVENIENCE FIXTURE Cider’s closest relative in production is wine, in that they both follow a similar process of pressed fruit,
yeast with some time to ferment and mature. As a result, the tasting process for cider is remarkably similar to wine.
unit for beers, wines and cider FOR A 2.5 METRE REFRIGERATED UNIT
in store. Cider typically will
command only a quarter to a
third of the space available, “ABCDE”
BEST
A B C D E
BOTTLED/
CAN CRAFTED
so space is at a premium. WINE CIDERS BEERS
eg. HENRY WESTONS
Retailers and store managers VINTAGE
need to take care stocking to
BOTTLED CANNED
ensure the space is maximised APPEARANCE, DOES
BETTER
PREMIUM PREMIUM
WINE CIDERS CIDERS BEERS
AGITATE BODY CLARITY IT TASTE ENJOY!
for turnover & profit. eg. KOPPARBERG eg. REKORDERLIG
& AROMA GOOD?
As minimum unit pricing is introduced
many packs will become unviable, CANNED Should there be bubbles, Does the cider cling Bright ciders should be The cider should taste Sit back, relax
retailers should consider moving away WINE MAINSTREAM CIDERS BEERS should it be still? Is there a to the sides of the shiny & luminous. appley and typically & enjoy
eg. STRONGBOW
from PET value white ciders and use head or any foam? glass? cidery or cider like. (in moderation,
Cloudy ciders should of course).
the space at the bottom of the fridge
GOOD
Agitate and swirl to Does the cider have have even & fluid
for larger packs of the best-selling LARGE
PACK release the aroma and legs/tears? distribution of the
mainstream formats. WINE MAINSTREAM BEERS
CIDERS
take a big sniff. sediment to form
Ensure out of stocks are minimised eg. STRONGBOW natural haze.
by stocking a limited range of the best
sellers with at least two facings per
product, rather than trying to fit in
one pack unit of every cider available.
WINE TO CIDER TO BEER
Fruit Cider is currently a third of total
cider, it should therefore take up around THE CIDER WHEEL GUIDE What flavours can you taste, what aromas can you smell...
a third of cider fixture space.
SUPERMARKETS OFF NOTES
ELD
APRICOT
HONEY
H
SE
E
ROSE
M
PEAC
RFL
Bad flavours & unwanted
E
DIM
PL U
PL
MI
Typically, the average UK
AR
CL
T
E
OW
EA
AP
LK
N
aromas:
NC
EN
RECOMMENDED FOUR BAY
PE
S
O
A
LI
RT
E
Y
UD
supermarket has 4 bays for
R
UI
P
E
G
G
T
R
A
O
H
H
R
U
Q
R
L
Y
T
TO
SUPERMARKET CIDER FIXTURE
D
G
C
• Vinegar, Sherry & wet
Y
a cider fixture, adjacent to the TR E
FLORA
L N
T
ED
N
E
N O
A
A
LL
E
N / M
SC
S E
R
SP E
O
G
other BWS ranges in store, AS H
UR
L
cardboard – suggest the
U
IN N
W
A A E
M
TR R L
LO FR
Y R
IN EN O PP
BAY 1 BAY 2 BAY 3 BAY 4
fruit
therefore the recommendations BI
G
EN
T
C
O U
I N
EA
NA
product has oxidised.
flow
T T PI
TE NA
it
TY
CL
R BA
are based on 4 bays of cider.
ru
SO
WI • Banana (known as cider
BEST
stone
ar
s
UR KI
ie
e
pf
E
it
r
T
s
r
SW N
ST
Follow bottom shelf to top shelf good- LO
sickness) caused by
O
u
er
pi
SINGLE BOTTLED SINGLE BOTTLED CRAFTED FRUIT EET ME
y
r
N
SINGLE CAN it
TA
b
BA
E
better-best, however, ensure that the CRAFTED CIDERS CRAFTED CIDERS CRAFTED CIDERS CIDERS SOA S c
IC ic FIG
bulk packs are on the bottom shelf for
eg. HENRY WESTONS
VINTAGE
eg. HENRY WESTONS
VINTAGE
E.G. FRIELS, CAPLE RD
eg. ROSIE’S PIG,
ELK WARNING
PY TA
ST ex
ot bacterial contamination.
MEDIC E RAISIN
the consumer’s ease of pack handling. AL
d fr
u it
drie GRASS • Mouse, (sometimes
BETTER
RUBBERY
OFF-FLAV
SINGLE BOTTLE SINGLE BOTTLE SINGLE BOTTLE SINGLE BOTTLE CHEMICAL
Crafted cider is in growth, while value
formats are in decline therefore
PREMIUM CIDERS PREMIUM CIDERS FRUIT CIDERS FRUIT CIDERS
SULFUROUS L
GREEN HERBAL described as ‘mouse cage’,
eg. STOWFORD PRESS eg. STOWFORD PRESS eg. KOPPARBERG eg. KOPPARBERG
ICA
surrender space for PET value formats & BULMERS & BULMERS & REKORDERLIG & REKORDERLIG LOG HE FENNE
or ‘mouse urine’) the
LE
L
HOLIC HNO AL
RB
ALCO T EC C EA
AL
for larger pack crafted ciders on the I
TAB
STY OG HAY
/PA L RT
result of bacterial
OU
O W HY
bottom shelf. 4 PACK CANNED 4 PACK CANNED 4 PACK CANNED 4 PACK CANNED PUT
RID
D BI O BA
RO
ROAS
KE
GE
L
O SIL
MAINSTREAM MAINSTREAM FRUIT CIDERS FRUIT CIDERS O IC contamination.
RE
A
O D
R-C M
B
AL
Y
Apple cider is still the dominant cider CIDERS CIDERS
SP
VE
E
R
eg. STRONGBOW eg. STRONGBOW RN MI
OV
D
TEDF
E
IM
BA FO NT
IC
eg. MAGNERS DARK FRUIT DARK FRUIT
H
eg. STRONGBOW
NUTS
type on shelf and this should be SE RR
AN
R
• Sour Milk/Yoghurt –
E
ES
HO
GOOD
TY M
S
LAVO
T
reflected in the ranging. A space split MULTIPACK US 2S FA
U
SH SO
LARGE PACK IL
of about two thirds apple and one third CRAFTED CIDERS MULTIPACK PREMIUM MULTIPACK M
/H ID TT
RO
a result of bacterial
URS
MAINSTREAM BOTTLED & FRUIT CIDERS ST C Y Y
R
ES O
M
A
fruit is reflective of the current sales eg. WYLD WOOD
CANNED CIDERS CANNED CIDERS E A
IC IN
infection.
BIB, HENRY WESTONS
eg. STRONGBOW DARK Y
T
IC
Y SP P
patterns and optimal for the current IP
D
eg. STRONGBOW eg. BULMERS FRUIT & KOPPARBERG E
MULTIPACK X ROASTED
SE
& MAGNERS C A
A
P
marketplace. W
DI
Y
A
• An aroma of drains or eggs
U
IL
N
LP
XI
IS
O
PE
SY
/O
BITTER ALMO
VA
CIN
EE
Avoid duplication, particularly within
Y
indicate an infection.
PP
EA
HAZ
ER
ID
SM
CHOCOLATE
CAR
D
NI
COCO
ER
flavours of fruit cider, rather use
NC
GR
NA
COFFE
MA
TT
OK
LL
RA
ELN
BU
the space to increase facings of the FLOW APPLE CIDER TO FRUIT CIDER
AME
MO
• Any chemical smells in
A
L
Y
T
NUT
best performing lines to reduce out
UT
N
E
L
of stocks. draught cider indicate line
ND
cleaning issues.
30 | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | OFF TRADE Recommendations WESTONS GUIDE TO TASTING CIDER | Westons CideR RepoRt 2018 | 31You can also read
