WORLDRISKREPORT 2021 FOCUS: SOCIAL PROTECTION - RELIEFWEB
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WorldRiskReport 2021 Focus: Social Protection
WorldRiskReport 2021
Imprint Publisher WorldRiskReport 2021 Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft Ruhr University Bochum – Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) Concept and implementation Peter Mucke, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, Project lead Dr. Katrin Radtke, IFHV, Scientific lead Lotte Kirch and Ruben Prütz, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, Editors in chief Julia Walter, MediaCompany, Editing Naldo Gruden and Karolina Musial, MediaCompany, Graphic design and information graphics Authors Dr. Mariya Aleksandrova, German Development Institute Impressum Sascha Balasko, Plan International Prof. Dr. Markus Kaltenborn, Ruhr University Bochum Dr. Daniele Malerba, German Development Institute Peter Mucke, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft Oliver Neuschäfer, Christoffel-Blindenmission Dr. Katrin Radtke, IFHV Ruben Prütz, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft Dr. Christoph Strupat, German Development Institute Daniel Weller, IFHV Nicola Wiebe, Brot für die Welt In collaboration with Lennart Bade, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft Jenifer Gabel, DAHW Sr. Dr. Elizabeth Nalloor, RAHA, Misereor Anja Oßwald, Kindernothilfe Silke Wörmann, Kindernothilfe Translation Lisa Cohen, IFHV ISBN 978-3-946785-12-5 The WorldRiskReport has been published annually since 2011 by Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft Responsible: Peter Mucke 2 WorldRiskReport 2021
Foreword
The year 2021 has again been strongly marked of different protection mechanisms and their
by the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, cli- relevance for disaster risk reduction. Social
mate-related extreme weather events, includ- protection systems respond to the basic needs
ing heat waves, forest fires, and floods, have of people in the event of disaster, strengthen
preoccupied us in many parts of the world. This their resilience, and prevent them from auto-
year, also Germany was severely hit by floods in matically slipping into poverty. The necessity of
the West and South. This disaster has shaken a further expansion of social protection and its
many people and made us painfully aware that stronger integration into disaster risk reduction
climate change – which makes such floods more and measures against climate change becomes
likely in many places – affects us all and can also evident. From the perspective of science
have devastating effects even on our immediate and practice, the report identifies approaches
surroundings. A reappraisal of the causes, also and points out possible solutions. These anal-
with respect to disaster management, is inevi- yses, in combination with the WorldRiskIndex
table and must lead to a significantly enhanced 2021, once again make the WorldRiskReport an
coordination of responsibilities and to a – long important tool for decision-makers in society
overdue – ambitious climate protection. and politics.
At the same time, and despite all the criticism,
the floods have shown very clearly that Germa-
ny has the capacities to respond to such extreme
events. Many buildings and infrastructures
withstood the water masses, emergency forces Wolf-Christian Ramm
were on the spot, and the majority of those af- Chairman Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft
fected has swiftly received support. In most cas-
es, they have access to social protection and will
receive governmental financial support where
insurance coverage is not available.
The importance of social protection takes cen-
ter stage in this year’s WorldRiskReport. The Prof. Dr. Pierre Thielbörger
articles by our authors highlight the importance Executive Director IFHV
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft is formed by the aid organizations Brot für die The Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict
Welt, Christoffel-Blindenmission, DAHW, Kindernothilfe, medico interna- (IFHV) of Ruhr University Bochum is one of the leading institutions in
tional, Misereor, Plan International, terre des hommes, Welthungerhilfe Europe for research and teaching on humanitarian crises. Coming from a
and the associated members German Doctors and Oxfam. In contexts of long tradition in scientific analysis of international humanitarian law and
crises and disasters the member organizations provide short-term relief human rights, the Institute today combines interdisciplinary research in
as well as long-term support in order to overcome poverty and prevent the fields of law, social science, geoscience, and public health.
new crises.
WorldRiskReport 2021 3
Further information In-depth information, methodologies, and tables are available at www.WorldRiskReport.org. The reports from 2011 – 2020 can be downloaded there as well. 4 WorldRiskReport 2021
Contents
Key Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
1. Social Protection in Crises and Disasters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Peter Mucke, Ruben Prütz
2. Focus: Social Protection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.1 C risis and Disaster Preparedness
through a Global Fund for Social Protection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Markus Kaltenborn, Nicola Wiebe
2.2 Access to Social Protection Systems
through Participation and Inclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Sascha Balasko, Oliver Neuschäfer
2.3 “Building Back Better” through Social Protection. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Mariya Aleksandrova, Daniele Malerba, Christoph Strupat
3. The WorldRiskIndex 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Katrin Radtke, Daniel Weller
4. Requirements and Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, IFHV
Appendix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Bibliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
WorldRiskReport 2021 5
Figure 1: WorldRiskIndex 2021
Key Findings
WorldRiskIndex 2021 the principle that low or very low vulnerability
can drastically reduce disaster risk.
+ The WorldRiskIndex 2021 assesses the disaster
risk for 181 countries. This covers almost 99 per- + In a comparison of continents, Oceania has the
cent of the world’s population. highest disaster risk, mainly due to its high
exposure to extreme natural events. Africa, the
+ A total of ten island states are among the 15 Americas, Asia, and Europe follow in descend-
countries with the highest disaster risk. Their ing order of disaster risk.
risk profile is increasingly also determined by
sea-level rise. + Africa is the continent with the highest over-
all societal vulnerability. Twelve of the 15 most
+ The countries with the highest disaster risk vulnerable countries in the world are located
worldwide are Vanuatu (WRI 47.73), the Solo- there.
mon Islands (WRI 31.16), and Tonga (WRI 30.51).
+ Europe has by far the lowest disaster risk of all
+ Vanuatu is the most exposed, followed by Anti- continents, with a median of 3.27 comprising
gua and Barbuda, and Tonga. The most vulner- 40 countries. It is also in the most favorable
able country in the world is the Central African position in all other components of the risk
Republic, followed by Chad, and the Democratic analysis.
Republic of the Congo.
+ Countries with low economic capacity and
+ Germany has a very low disaster risk. With income tend to have higher vulnerability or
a value of 2.66, Germany ranks 161st in the lower capabilities in averting disasters. In these
WorldRiskIndex. countries, extreme natural events often lead to
further reductions in existing capacities.
+ The examples of the Netherlands, Japan,
Mauritius, and Trinidad and Tobago illustrate
6 WorldRiskReport 2021
Focus: Social Protection Rank Country Risk
1. Vanuatu 47.73 Figure 2:
Extract from the
+ Social protection contributes to reducing 2. Solomon Islands 31.16 WorldRiskIndex 2021
a society’s vulnerability to extreme natu- 3. Tonga 30.51
ral events. In the event of a disaster, social 4. Dominica 27.42
protection must often be expanded at short
5. Antigua and Barbuda 27.28
notice to meet increased protection needs. 6. Brunei Darussalam 22.77
Adaptive protection systems are particularly 7. Guyana 21.83
suitable for this purpose, as they can respond 8. Philippines 21.39
promptly to new protection needs and effec-
9. Papua New Guinea 20.90
tively cope with shocks such as the Covid-19
10. Guatemala 20.23
pandemic.
11. Cape Verde 17.72
+ Informal social protection systems, which 12. Costa Rica 17.06
include community-based institutions such as 13. Bangladesh 16.23
savings groups or grain banks, exist in parallel 14. Fiji 16.06
to formal, often state-run, protection systems. 15. Cambodia 15.80
... ... ...
+ Access to rights-based social protection systems 161. Germany 2.66
has so far only been a reality for a minority of ... ... ...
the world’s population. In many parts of the 167. Singapore 2.50
world, the Covid-19 pandemic has highlight- 168. Sweden 2.25
ed how unequally access to social protec- 169. Lithuania 2.18
tion is distributed. Without social protection, 170. Switzerland 2.04
disasters exacerbate poverty, deepen exist-
171. Finland 2.00
ing in
equalities, weaken resilience to future
172. Estonia 1.99
crises, and increase the need for humanitarian
173. Egypt 1.82
assistance.
174. Iceland 1.71
+ In reality, social protection systems do not 175. Maldives 1.69
always reach the people who depend on 176. Barbados 1.37
them. The causes for this may be institutional, 177. Grenada 1.06
communicative, social, or physical barriers – 178. Saudi Arabia 0.94
they often result from a combination of several 179. St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0.70
factors. 180. Malta 0.69
181. Qatar 0.30
+ A Global Fund for Social Protection can help to
ensure a protection floor is provided even in
countries that do not have the financial means + While social protection has gained impor-
themselves. Beyond that, in crisis situations tance in reducing disaster risk and addressing
the fund could also help those countries that the consequences of climate change in recent
are dependent on international support due to years, a more systematic linkage that creates
short-term financial bottlenecks. synergies between the fields of action is still
needed. For the purpose of Building Back
+ Social protection is a task that must be financed Better, it is also important to integrate effective
from national resources. In this respect, inter- social protection measures for the mitigation
national co-financing of the systems can only of and adaptation to climate change into the
be a temporary solution. recovery of the effects of the pandemic.
WorldRiskReport 2021 7
1 S ocial Protection in Crises
and Disasters
Protecting people against risks such as illness, loss of possessions, unem-
Peter Mucke ployment, or old-age poverty significantly contributes to reducing their
Managing Director,
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft
vulnerability, including vulnerability to extreme natural events. The state
Ruben Prütz, is usually seen as having the primary responsibility for protecting people
Program Officer Content and against social risks and in crisis situations, but also non-governmental,
Information, often informal structures of various kinds, contribute to this. For effec-
Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft
tive disaster management, the short-term expansion of social protection
systems is a decisive factor. International frameworks and strategies such
as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction already take the
importance of social protection into account to some extent. However, even
greater consideration of social protection systems in the field of disaster
management and climate change adaptation is possible and necessary.
During the devastating floods in West and South risks such as illness, unemployment, and care
Germany in July 2021 that claimed more than dependency, the family, the neighborhood, and
180 lives and caused damages in the billions, the church have historically played a central
mutual aid in times of need was manifold: in role in individual protection (Kannan 2007).
Hagen in North Rhine-Westphalia, for example, In the course of industrialization and urban-
residents from higher-lying city districts helped ization, as well as the profound social changes
those affected by the flood in the valley with the that accompanied them, the state increasingly
clean-up work. One man gave away food from took over social protection. In consequence,
his window to those in need, and a Facebook the Western welfare state has gradually devel-
group was set up to coordinate neighborly help oped since the 19th century, initially in Europe-
(Rinaldi 2021). During extreme natural events, an countries (Kannan 2007). Today, states are
it is often neighbors or relatives who make a generally seen as having the primary responsi-
decisive contribution to emergency relief. bility for protecting people against social risks.
Nonetheless, non-governmental social protec-
Not only in the case of extreme natural events, tion structures have remained of great impor-
but also in the case of more commonplace social tance worldwide to this day.
Types and significance of social protection systems
Following the definition of the International unemployment provision and survivors’ bene-
Labour Organization (ILO), for the purpose of fit. In this context, access to essential goods
this report social protection is understood as the and services, prevention and protection against
entirety of measures that a society provides for risks, and promotion of chances and opportu-
its population to protect them from economic nities are the three central goals (see Figure 3).
and social hardship. Social protection is based
on the pillars of reserve building and solidarity. In terms of formal benefit structures – often
The spectrum of social protection ranges from provided or supported by the state – a dis-
employment injury insurance to retirement tinction can be made between four types of
provision, from medical care to family provision, social protection (Bowen et al. 2020; Carter et
from benefits in case of illness or disability to al. 2019):
WorldRiskReport 2021 9of social prote
bjectives ction
O sk pre
vention and protectio
n
Ri
€
Pr
Employment injury benefit o
es
m
ic
ot
rv
€ €
io
se
n
nd
of
Old-age
sa
ch
benefit Family benefit
od
an
go
ces
tial
and
€
sen
€ Unemployment Maternity
opp
to es
benefit benefit
ortun
Access
ities
Sickness Survivors’
benefit benefit €
€
Medical Invalidity
care benefit
Social protection according to ILO:
“The set of public measures that a society provides for its members to protect them against economic and
social distress caused by the absence or a substantial reduction of income from work as a result of various
contingencies (sickness, maternity, employment injury, unemployment, invalidity, old age or death of the
breadwinner), the provision of health care and the provision of benefits for families with children.”
Figure 3: Objectives and sub-sectors of formal social protection according to ILO (compiled based on ILO 2004)
+ Social assistance: This includes non-con- In addition to formal state services, social
tributory benefits for particularly vulnerable protection can also be provided through
groups such as unconditional or condition- privately chosen or informal means, including:
al cash transfers, transfers of goods, social
housing, or school meals. + Social protection through the family, the
neighborhood, and communities
+ Social insurances: This includes contributo-
ry benefits such as health care or retirement + Privately funded, self-selected insurances
provision.
+ Help and support from religious com-
+ Labor market interventions: This includes munities.
both non-contributory and contributory
labor market programs. Active programs In most cases, social protection involves costs
include, for example, training opportunities that many low-income countries, particularly in
or job placement services. Passive programs the Global South, are often unable to finance, as
include unemployment insurance or early well as regular contributions that not all people
retirement options. can afford. Globally, the degree of coverage of
protection measures in the sub-sectors of social
+ Social care services: This includes special protection is therefore highly unequal (see
pre- and aftercare services such as trau- Figure 7). In addition, there sometimes exist
ma care in the context of social risks like considerable qualitative differences between
discrimination or violence. the benefits offered. Particularly vulnerable
10 WorldRiskReport 2021groups are often the ones with insufficient International requirements and approaches to
access to existing protection structures (see implementing social protection
Chapter 2.2).
As early as 1948, Article 22 of the Univer-
The role of informal protection structures sal Declaration of Human Rights established
social protection as a human right: “Every-
Irrespective of the formal protection systems one, as a member of society, has the right to
provided by the state and private insurance social security” (UNGA 1948). The core aspects
companies, informal social protection struc- of the right to social protection consist of
tures continue to exist. They include, for exam- (OHCHR 2021):
ple, community-based measures to improve
individual and collective protection within a + “Availability: A social security system needs
municipality or community. Especially – but to be in place under domestic law to ensure
not exclusively – in countries where formal that benefits are effectively administered
social protection systems function poorly or and supervised.
are met with little acceptance, informal struc-
tures continue to be of great importance (von + Adequacy: Benefits, whether in cash or
Benda-Beckmann 2015). They primarily include in kind, must be sufficient in quantity and
(Carter et al. 2019; UNDP 2016): duration so that everyone may realize his
or her rights to family protection and assis-
+ Community grain banks for food security tance, a reasonable standard of living and
(for example in the case of crop failures due access to health care.
to extreme natural events)
+ Affordability: Costs and charges associated
+ Unpaid, sometimes rotating obligations with contributions to social security must
and tasks within communities such as be economical for all, and must not compro-
municipalities mise the realization of other Covenant
rights.
+ Roles and responsibilities within families
+ Accessibility: A social security system should
+ Practiced norms, culture of reciprocity and cover all persons, especially those belonging
solidarity within communities, such as to the most disadvantaged and marginalized
neighborhood assistance groups, without discrimination. Benefits
should also be physically accessible.”
+ Remittances from emigrated family or
community members Within the framework of international agree-
ments, this right was substantiated in central
+ Lending transactions conventions, starting with the 1952 ILO
convention on minimum standards for various
+ Credits and savings groups. sub-sectors of social protection. Several inter-
national conventions followed, for example
Such informal protection systems can provide on equal treatment, the protection of children
effective protection at the community level, but and mothers, and the protection of the rights of
are usually regionally limited and do not always migrant workers.
provide access for all members of a community.
In some cases, such evolved informal structures Over the course of the last two decades, differ-
can also be supported, expanded, and connect- ent approaches to the design of formal social
ed to formal structures through public funding protection have replaced each other. In the
(Carter et al. 2019). The advantage of informal early 2000s, the dominant approach was the
protection structures is that they are oftentimes so-called “Social Risk Management” approach,
more flexible, especially in the case of neighbor- which focuses on the primary management of
hood and family protection. acute risks. This approach was criticized for not
WorldRiskReport 2021 11sufficiently considering the structural causes formulated in 2012 (The ILO Social Protec-
and risk drivers such as inequality, discrimi- tion Floors Recommendation 202) (Carter et
nation, and poverty (HLPE 2012). In contrast, al. 2019).
so-called “Transformative Social Protection”
aims to address the structural causes of social In 2016, the Universal Social Protection
insecurity. However, this approach sometimes Initiative – initiated by the World Bank
blurs the objectives and boundaries between and ILO – which promotes universal social
social protection and development policy, protection by 2030, followed. This includes
which has negative effects on the achieve- the targeted basic social protection of the
ment of the core goals of social protection Social Protection Floor Initiative, but the
(HLPE 2012). measures and programs to achieve universal
social protection are defined individually and
In 2009, the United Nations launched the country-specifically at the national level. The
Social Protection Floor Initiative. This rights- model is thus considered less rigid than its
based approach generally considers states as predecessors. Despite broad international
duty bearers and citizens as rights holders. support, the initiative is considered difficult
On this basis, comprehensive recommenda- to implement given the often-limited financial
tions on what rights-based basic protection resources in many countries (Carter et al.
should look like at the national level were 2019; see also Chapter 2.1).
Social protection and disaster management
After extreme natural events, which also The importance of adaptive social protection
include pandemics such as the current Covid- in the event of a disaster
19 pandemic or the Spanish flu of 1918 / 19,
functioning social protection structures – In the event of crisis or disaster, social protec-
both formal and informal – are of enormous tion often has to be expanded at short notice
importance, because in these situations a large in order to meet increased protection needs.
number of people face existential crises (Bünd- In this context, it is often referred to adaptive
nis Entwicklung Hilft / IFHV 2020). During social protection. The adaptive social protec-
the Spanish flu in Sweden, for example, the tion approach aims to expand existing social
proportion of the population living in poor- protection systems in a short period of time
houses increased significantly: on average, (World Bank / GFDRR 2020). The fastest
there were four people who had to go to a way to expand existing systems is by adding
poorhouse for every flu death (Karlsson et more beneficiaries (horizontal expansion) or
al. 2014). by increasing benefits or extending them for
those covered within the existing system (verti-
However, crises and disasters in particular cal expansion). In addition, there is the short-
also show the limits of the capacities of social term development of protection systems that
protection systems. What is then required is are conceptually based on existing systems or
an increase in state funding for formal and single elements (see Chapter 2.3). In compari-
informal social protection systems and, if son, the establishment of new types of protec-
necessary, international support for individual tion programs is often time-consuming and
states, for example through a Global Fund cost-intensive and is thus usually not a prior-
(see Chapter 2.1). The Covid-19 p andemic ity as a response to acute crises and disasters
clearly demonstrated the immense costs that (Bowen et al. 2020).
can be associated with the expansion of social
protection: In Germany alone, several billion In addition to the four core aspects of the
euros were made available to cushion the right to social protection already mentioned,
economic and social consequences of the the quality of adaptive social protection in
Covid-19 pandemic (BMAS 2021). the event of acute crises depends on whether
12 WorldRiskReport 2021Social Protection in Disaster Management
+ Use of existing information from + Adaptability strengthening of
social protection systems on social protection systems for
particularly vulnerable groups disaster situations
+ Early expansion of social protection
red
+ Early and continuous analysis of Prepa ness benefits in the event of impending
adaptive capacities and gaps in Ea disasters
is rl
the provision of existing social
yw
lys
protection systems + Early warning and information
ana
arn
Disaster dissemination by means of formal and
ing
informal protection networks
Risk
preparedness
Extreme natural event /
Coping with
disaster acute crisis
Re c
f
li e
on
ru
re
cy
st
c ti
on rg en
+ Covering increased protection Eme
needs and mitigating individual
and societal consequential
damage and long-term
consequences of disasters by + Utilization of existing knowledge + Stabilization of social protection systems
means of social protection about local conditions and needs by against possible crisis-related
benefits involving social protection workers impairments and capacity overloads
Figure 4: Social protection in disaster management phases (compiled based on World Bank / GFDRR 2020)
cost-effective, responsive, needs-oriented, and Adaptive social protection provides a means
sustainable adaptations of existing protection to promote synergies between the three fields
benefits can be implemented despite great time of action and to efficiently use capacities and
pressure (World Bank / GFDRR 2020; O’Brien resources to achieve shared goals.
et al. 2018).
Social protection as a part of the
Besides the acute adaptation and expansion WorldRiskIndex
of existing social protection systems to cope
with disasters, adaptive social protection is In order to assess disaster risk, the World-
often also seen as a relevant instrument in the RiskIndex analyzes exposure as well as vul-
context of long-term adaptation – for exam- nerability based on the three components
ple to climate change. Through preventive susceptibility, coping capacities, and adaptive
protection measures and adaptations of exist- capacities (see also the textbox “The Concept
ing protection systems, precautions can be of the WorldRiskReport”). To this end, social
taken for long-term developments and newly protection plays an important role: Five of the
emerging risks (see Figure 4). Adaptive social 22 indicators used to calculate vulnerability are
protection thus represents an interface between directly related to it (see Chapter 3):
the three fields of action of social protection,
disaster risk management, and climate change + Public health expenditures
adaptation: All three aim to reduce individu- + Private health expenditures
al and societal vulnerability or promote resil- + Insurance coverage
ience through targeted measures, thereby + Number of physicians per 1,000 persons
managing and mitigating acute and future risks + Number of hospital beds per 1,000 persons.
(Carter et al. 2019; FAO / Climate Centre 2019).
WorldRiskReport 2021 13Four additional indicators are indirectly related nets and insurance systems to promote resil-
to cross-cutting issues of social protection: ience in households and communities (UNISDR
2015). Despite the indirect links between the
+ Literacy rate Sendai Framework and social protection, the
+ Participation in education explicit linkage of social protection with disas-
+ Share of the population living on less than ter management in UNDRR’s work seems to
1.90 US dollars per day remain limited: Neither in the expressed strate-
+ Share of undernourished population. gic objectives and focus activities for the coming
years, nor in the UNDRR’s 2019 flagship report
Social protection is thus linked to all three “Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk
areas of vulnerability according to the World- Reduction” (GAR) is social protection named
RiskIndex. Reducing vulnerability through as an essential building block for disaster risk
the expansion of social protection leads to the reduction (UNDRR 2021; UNDRR 2019).
realization of central goals of social protection:
prevention and protection against risks as well In contrast, in the context of the 2030 Agenda,
as promotion of chances and opportunities. the importance of social protection is taken into
account explicitly, as several of the Sustainable
Institutional embedment of social protection Development Goals (SDGs) have a direct link to
as disaster preparedness social protection. Among other things, the 2030
Agenda calls for universal health coverage,
Social protection contributes to the reduction greater consideration and support for unpaid
of societal vulnerability to extreme natural care services, and improved coverage of nation-
events. In the Sendai Framework for Disaster al protection systems across societies.
Risk Reduction, initiated by the United Nations
Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNDRR The ongoing global crisis situation caused by the
(formerly UNISDR) and adopted in 2015, there Covid-19 pandemic and the progressive nega-
are already indirect links to social protection: tive impacts of climate change emphasize that
prevention and protection against risks form social protection and especially its enhanced
the core objectives of the framework – objec- flexibility must be taken into account even more
tives that, according to the ILO, social protec- strongly in national and international political
tion should also fulfil. As one of four priorities, processes in the future, especially with regard
extensive investments in social, economic, to disaster management and climate change
and health resilience building are suggested to adaptation (see Chapter 4). In this respect, the
prevent damage to individuals and societies. It potential of social protection systems is far from
also highlights the need to promote social safety being fully realized.
14 WorldRiskReport 2021The Concept of the WorldRiskReport
Concept of “risk” and approach the WorldRiskReport always contains a The WorldRiskIndex can only consider indi-
focus chapter examining background and cators for which comprehensible, quan-
The risk assessment in the WorldRiskReport context from a qualitative perspective – tifiable data is available. For example,
is based on the general notion that the this year’s topic is “social protection”. while immediate neighborhood assistance
intensity of the extreme natural event cannot be measured in the event of a
is not the only factor of relevance to the The calculation of the disaster risk has disaster, it is nonetheless very important.
disaster risk, but that the overall situation been performed for 181 states worldwide Furthermore, variances in data quality
of society is equally important. A society and is based on four components: among different countries may occur if
that is insufficiently prepared will be more data is only gathered by national author-
vulnerable to natural events than one that + Exposure to earthquakes, cyclones, ities and not by an independent interna-
is better prepared in regard to susceptibili- floods, drought, and sea-level rise tional institution.
ty, coping capacities, and adaptive capaci-
ties. (Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft 2011). + Susceptibility depending on infrastruc- The aim of the report
ture, food supply, and economic frame-
Risk assessment work conditions The exposition of the disaster risk using the
index and its four components shows the
The WorldRiskReport contains the World + Coping capacities depending on gover disaster risk hotspots across the world and
RiskIndex. Since 2018, it has been calcu- nance, health care, social and material the fields of action to achieve the neces-
lated by the Institute for International Law security sary reduction of risks. Complemented by
of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) at Ruhr qualitative analyses within the report, it is
University Bochum. The index was devel- + Adaptive capacities related to upcom- possible to formulate recommendations
oped by Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft in coop- ing natural events, climate change, for action for national and international,
eration with the United Nations University and other challenges. state and civil society actors.
in Bonn. In addition to the data section,
Natural hazard sphere Societal sphere
Vulnerability
Exposure
Mean of the three
Exposure to natural components
hazards
Sea-level rise Floods Susceptibility Coping
Likelihood of suffering Capacities to reduce
harm negative consequences
Cyclones Earthquakes
Droughts Adaptation
Capacities for long-
WorldRiskIndex term strategies for
Product of Exposure and Vulnerability societal change
Figure 5: The WorldRiskIndex and its components
WorldRiskReport 2021 152 Social Protection
2.1 Crisis and Disaster Preparedness
through a Global Fund for Social Protection
Pandemics, extreme natural events, violent conflicts, and economic upheavals
Markus Kaltenborn lead to disasters wherever they encounter high vulnerability. Both in normal
Professor at the Faculty of Law,
Ruhr University Bochum
times as well as in crisis situations, social protection systems make it possi-
Nicola Wiebe ble to guarantee basic human rights and to cope with the negative effects of
Policy Advisor Social Protection, crises. However, access to rights-based social protection systems has so far
Brot für die Welt only been a reality for a minority of the world’s population. This is partic-
ularly due to the considerable funding gaps in some countries of the Global
South. A Global Fund for Social Protection can help to ensure basic protection
in countries that are not yet able to provide this level of protection financially.
Moreover, in crisis situations the fund could help countries that are depen-
dent on international support due to short-term financial constraints. Social
protection is a reasonable investment in many respects, not least with regard
to global disaster prevention.
Social protection systems enable states to responsive social protection systems are needed
respond quickly to various forms of crises and in the long-term. Depending on the context-spe-
alleviate their impact on individuals and the cific risks, coordination with other sectors plays
whole of society. In this manner, disasters can a central role, for example with climate change
be mitigated and the permanent fall into pover- adaptation policies (see also Chapter 2.3).
ty can be prevented, for example by including
additional beneficiaries in already established The precautionary gap
social programs or by a crisis-related expan-
sion and adaptation of benefits (O’Brien et Around 53 percent of the world’s popula-
al. 2018). The mechanisms of action through tion has no sufficient access to social protec-
which social protection programs can support tion benefits (ILO 2021). Notably, despite an
disaster risk reduction instruments range from impressive number of additional social protec-
safeguarding livelihoods in the event of a crisis tion measures taken in the context of the Covid-
(protective function), contributing to preven- 19 pandemic (ILO 2020), these have been far
tion and promoting crisis resilience, to support- from providing protection to all people. While
ing longer-term transformation processes high-income countries invested an additional
(Devereux / Sabates-Wheeler 2004). In addi- average of 695 US dollars per person in social
tion to the immediate reduction of vulnera- protection between March and October 2020,
bility, the interplay of different social policy the average in low-income countries was 4 US
instruments can, at best, trigger broader social, dollars (Almenfi et al. 2020). In some countries,
economic, and political changes. it was particularly difficult to reach individuals
who were not yet integrated in the social protec-
To realize these contributions to disaster risk tion system, such as workers in the informal
reduction, established, rights-based, and sector and people in extreme poverty.
WorldRiskReport 2021 17Impact
Function Individual Societal Instruments (examples)
+ Ensuring livelihood security + Maintaining demand, reducing the + Social insurances
Protection + Access to health services depth and duration of the economic + Guaranteed minimum protection
+ Protection against negative coping recession (social assistance)
strategies + Protection of productive capacities + Basic income
+ Reduction of individual susceptibility + Reducing susceptibility to losses through + Regular and reliable social
through access to nutrition, health care risk reduction or risk hedging measures transfers
and education + Public employment with a
Prevention
focus on prevention (such
as construction of dams or
irrigation)
+ Increasing skills and revenue, + Improvement of coping mechanisms + Regular and reliable social
diversification of sources of revenue + Reduction of poverty transfers
Promotion
+ Accumulation of reserve funds + Cash-programs
+ Enabling of risk-taking for change
+ Inclusion und empowerment + Reduction of the inequality of + Access to education, health care,
+ Promotion of investments in sustainable opportunities (ex ante) and child benefit
Transformation
agricultural strategies + Redistribution (ex post) + Progressive design of the
tax-transfer system
Figure 6: Mechanisms of action of social protection in a crisis context (adapted from Devereux / Sabates-Wheeler 2004 and FAO 2019)
In addition, low-income countries are exposed In disaster situations, poverty is exacerbated,
to a disproportionately high risk of disasters existing inequality is deepened, and resilience
(see Chapter 3). Within these countries, low-in- to future crises is further weakened. Conse-
come population groups are again dispropor- quently, the question arises as to how this nega-
tionately at risk, partly because they are more tive spiral can be counteracted. National solu-
exposed to the influence of extreme natural tions alone will not suffice. The international
events due to the geographic location of their community must consider how it can accelerate
settlements, the precariousness of their living progress in building social protection systems
and working conditions, or due to their employ- in low-income countries and thus improve
ment sector (for example agriculture or fish- global crisis and disaster prevention.
eries). They also have fewer resources to cope
with crises or proactively adapt to crisis-related Role and mandate of a Global Fund for Social
changes (FAO 2019). Protection
Gaps in social protection make individuals, as When the global financial and economic crisis
well as entire societies, susceptible to crises. of 2007 / 2008 demonstrated the importance
18 WorldRiskReport 2021of countries having sufficiently stable protec- of non-governmental organizations and trade
tion systems, the ILO, together with the World unions, called on the international community
Health Organization (WHO), launched the to establish such a fund (GCSPF 2020).
Social Protection Floor Initiative, which result-
ed in a corresponding recommendation in 2012 Despite deviating ideas with respect to details,
(The ILO Social Protection Floors Recommen- the existing concepts offer a general under-
dation 202). Since then, this document has standing of a prospective fund’s mandate: First
significantly impacted the international debate and foremost, it would be involved in the estab-
on global social protection (for further legal lishment and temporary co-financing of social
bases, see Kaltenborn 2020). protection floors where low-income countries
do not have sufficient financial resources of
The voluntary commitment to which states have their own (especially tax revenues) for such
subscribed consists of two components: the systems. In extraordinary crisis situations (for
social protection floor, which guarantees access example extreme natural events, pandemics, or
to basic health care and a minimum level of economic crises), the fund would also support
income security for all residents, and the more countries that are forced to reduce the range
comprehensive protection programs, which and level of benefits provided by their social
require continuous development. The recom- protection floors due to short-term financial
mendation grants the states a wide margin of constraints.
appreciation in the design of both levels. It is
up to their social policy priorities whether they Social protection is a task that must, in princi-
prefer contribution-financed security systems ple, be financed from a state’s own resources.
(for example health or pension insurance) or To this extent, international co-financing of
tax-financed basic social protection programs. the systems should only serve as a temporary
solution. The fund’s mandate should there-
In fall 2012, with reference to ILO’s Social fore also include advising partner countries in
Protection Floor Recommendation, then-UN how to mobilize additional domestic resourc-
Special Rapporteurs Olivier de Schutter and es to finance their social protection systems.
Magdalena Sepúlveda proposed the establish- Another important task of this new institution
ment of a Global Fund for Social Protection to could be to promote coordination and coher-
implement the first component – the floor-con- ence among existing international programs to
cept (de Schutter / Sepúlveda 2012). Such a support social protection systems in the Glob-
fund, which could be established for example al South. This way, the fund could help reduce
within the framework of the Global Partnership the problem of fragmented development
for Universal Social Protection (USP2030), cooperation (Klingebiel et al. 2016), which is
should help to ensure that basic protection particularly damaging to the development of
could also be provided in countries financially coherent social protection systems. The vari-
not yet able to provide it themselves. Though ous financial and technical resources available
similar proposals were developed before and for this global task could be used much more
increasingly after de Schutter and Sepúlveda’s efficiently if they were pooled by an interna-
proposal (ILO 2002; Cichon 2015; GCSPF tional institution.
2015; Greenhill et al. 2015), it was only in the
wake of the Covid-19 crisis that the discussion Organizational principles
gained momentum. The French government
introduced a proposal to create a new inter- The establishment of new international insti-
national financing mechanism into the G20 tutions must take place within the frame-
deliberations. De Schutter submitted a report work of applicable international law. From
on this to the UN Human Rights Council in the perspective of international development
April 2021 (UN Doc. A/HRC/47/36). Civil soci- law, the guidelines of the Global Partner-
ety stakeholders also support the cause. In fall ship for Effective Development Cooperation
2020, the Global Coalition for Social Protec- contain important principles. The details are
tion Floors (GCSPF), an international alliance derived from the Nairobi Outcome Document
WorldRiskReport 2021 19(2016) and the predecessor documents, the to monitor the compliance of all fund decisions
Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness (2005) with agreed guidelines and principles. It is
and the Busan Partnership Agreement (2011). equally important that the governments of the
For the operation of a Global Fund for Social countries receiving support from the fund are
Protection, the principle of country owner- accountable for the correct use of the financial
ship would be of particular importance: Coun- means – not only to the fund, but also to their
tries should be enabled to develop their social respective populations. These requirements can
protection systems based on their own social be implemented through reporting obligations,
policy ideas and priorities. The key underlying monitoring and evaluation procedures, nation-
assumption for the new institutional approach al social dialogue with civil society, and the
is the idea of a global risk community and the establishment of complaints mechanisms.
sociopolitical principle of solidarity, in clear
distinction from neocolonial patterns of heter- Financing
onomy in a donor / recipient relationship. This
must be anchored in the organizational struc- Given the ambitious mandate of a Global Fund
ture of the fund. for Social Protection, the question of financing
arises: To enable the financing of a social protec-
Other principles of the Aid Effectiveness-Agen- tion floor in low-income countries with high
da relevant for the design of fund structures are vulnerability, considerable sums are required.
the principles of inclusion and accountabili- Following the calculations made as part of the
ty. For the concretization of these principles, Social Protection Floor Index, ten countries had
the relevant ILO standards (including the ILO financing gaps larger than ten percent of their
Social Protection Floors Recommendation 202) gross domestic product in 2018 (FES 2020).
and the principles of the human rights-based If one were to focus on this selection and the
approach to development cooperation (UNDG fund were to cover half of the social protection
2003) should also be taken into account. Inclu- costs in these countries, a total of 10 - 15 billion
sivity requires parties to be willing to adequately US dollars annually would be required. In the
involve all stakeholders in the steering process- event of a crisis, the international community
es of the fund. This means that in addition to would presumably have to shoulder a larger
the governments of partner countries involved share of the costs. However, investments in
in the fund and the international organizations social protection can be economically reward-
active in the field of social protection (in partic- ing and should thus by no means be regarded as
ular ILO, WHO, World Bank), social partners a “lost subsidy”: Especially in low-income coun-
(international trade unions and employers’ tries, they contribute to a significant increase in
organizations), and civil society representatives the gross domestic product in the long-term
of the affected groups in partner countries in (ITUC 2021).
the Global South must also have the opportu-
nity to contribute their views to the fund’s deci- The funds needed for international co-fi-
sion-making and monitoring processes. nancing could come from a combination of
different sources. The obvious solution is to
The principle of accountability urges that a provide additional funds from official devel-
high degree of transparency is necessary in all opment assistance (ODA) for this purpose. At
decision-making processes in the fund’s bodies only 0.4 percent of the total ODA volume, the
and that institutional arrangements are put share of expenditures on social protection is
in place to ensure mutual accountability of all still dramatically low, even though numerous
stakeholders. In part, this is already achieved research studies have demonstrated the posi-
through the participation mechanisms in the tive effects of social protection instruments
fund’s organizational structure, which ensure in reducing (extreme) poverty. Taking into
that all stakeholders are represented in its consideration that social protection programs
bodies. However, the decisions of the fund’s should also be seen as an important compo-
bodies must also be open for review. State nent of preparedness for climate-related
representatives should be given the opportunity disasters, it would also be conceivable to make
20 WorldRiskReport 2021greater use of international climate funds for Conclusion
the development of social protection systems.
International support for the development of
New earmarked sources for the financing of social protection systems in low-income coun-
global priority tasks such as education, health, tries is already available, albeit to a far too
and poverty reduction have already been limited extent. The establishment of a multi-
proposed several times. They include national, lateral fund would offer several advantages for
regional, or global financial transaction taxes, further expansion: In addition to the increased
carbon taxes, solidarity levies on airline tickets, attention to a globally pressing issue and the
and an international levy on corporate prof- above-mentioned gains in coherence and effec-
its or assets. Such financing methods should tiveness, a multilateral solution would be linked
also be considered for a Global Fund for Social to longer-term financing commitments by the
Protection (GCSPF 2020). Particularly in crisis international community. This aspect is of
situations, an additional issuance of special utmost importance if the aim is not only to set
drawing rights (SDRs) by the International up short-term protection programs but – in the
Monetary Fund – and the subsequent redirec- sense of effective crisis prevention – to estab-
tion of wealthier countries’ SDRs to low-income lish permanent protection systems in low-in-
countries – could also be an option for global come countries with high vulnerability.
solidarity-based financing (Plant 2021).
WorldRiskReport 2021 21India
Community Health Care
Country profile population are unemployed. According to
the Global Hunger Index the nutritional
Rank 90 in WorldRiskIndex 2021 India is faced with unpredicted rains situation in India is serious.
and heavy floods which often result in
WorldRiskIndex 6.65 large scale destruction and humanitarian The state of Chhattisgarh has around
emergencies. In addition, climate change 30 million inhabitants and is home to
Exposure 12.52 is expected to have profound effects on large tribal groups. Most of its popula-
the country. In recent years, the Indian tion primarily depends on a subsistence
Vulnerability 53.09 Government has undertaken measures agricultural economy. Many farmers grow
to establish a national database on paddy rice as the only crop, which is
disaster risk. However, the initiatives for dependent on regular monsoons, making
disaster risk management remain scat- these agricultural livelihoods vulnerable
tered across regions and agencies and to extreme weather events, also induced
investments in climate change adapta- by climate change.
tion are lacking.
Project context and activities
India has a population of 1.3 billion –
roughly 66 percent live in rural regions Raigarh Ambikapur Health Associa-
where critical infrastructure and social tion (RAHA) is a non-profit organization
services are often scarcely available. established in 1969 to improve rural
More than 23 percent of the Indian youth health care in Chhattisgarh. The region
22 WorldRiskReport 2021State of monetary contribution to the health care health care through publicly owned struc-
Social Protection fund. It also aims to reduce exploitation tures remains scarce. The CHPS manages
(see also supplement “Social Protection: Needs of people in need through money lend- to reduce the financial burden of health
for Action in High Risk Countries”) ers. It is similar to an insurer model, care treatment for individuals in case
where RAHA collects the premium from of illness. In addition, the availability of
1,380,004,385 the community and purchases health care RHCs improves the coverage and avail-
Inhabitants (2020) on their behalf from the RHCs and three ability of health care facilities, providing
associated hospitals. Associated hospitals the rural population with quality health
Social protection plans for
provide additional treatment capacity if care at their doorsteps.
certain age groups required.
, High need for action However, RAHA is also faced with chal-
Participants in the CHPS pay a small annu- lenges: Frequent fluctuation and rota-
al premium of 30 Rupees (~ 34 euro cents tion of nurses in the RHCs hampers the
Social protection plans for people
with disabilities and / or special as of June 2021). Seventy-five percent of relation between health workers and
protection needs
this fee go to the RHCs and are pooled patients. Another issue is the partly prev-
, High need for action for minor treatments, 25 percent go to alent misperception of the health care
a RAHA central fund. The membership necessity: With preventive and promotive
in the CHPS includes a balance of up to health care many potential health prob-
Social protection plans for the
work context
100 Rupees over the year for treatments lems can be avoided, thus some people
taken at the RHC level. Once the balance feel that there is no benefit in remaining
, Very high need for action
of 100 Rupees is depleted, patients have in the CHPS as they face no health issues.
to pay for treatments. In the event of RAHA is aware of these challenges and is
hospitalization, members are eligible actively engaged in further improving the
for a subsidy up to 2,500 Rupees on the value of the CHPS and the RHCs for the
hospital bill, this amount is provided out participating communities.
of Misereor grants. The RAHA central fund
Sr. Dr. Elizabeth Nalloor
is used to pay hospital bills of very poor
Executive Director, Raigarh Ambikapur Health
is mostly inhabited by people with a people above subsidy. While the premi- Association, partner of Misereor
very low income. Since its foundation, ums are deliberately kept low to facilitate
RAHA has implemented a comprehensive access for community members with low
health and development program through incomes, some people still struggle to
several Rural Health Centers (RHCs) situ- afford it.
ated in different villages. These RHCs are
the basic local infrastructure to treat and A membership also includes programs
cure minor ailments. Every RHC covers on preventive and promotive health,
between five to ten villages with a total as well as training in organic farming,
of 10,000 to 15,000 people. RAHA runs 93 water conservation, herbal medicines,
RHCs, built and equipped by RAHA’s part- and a school health program, all for free.
ner Misereor. Through the health education program,
vital information is also disseminated
Beyond the RHCs, RAHA started a health on community-based disaster prepared-
care scheme called Community Health ness towards hazards such as floods and
Protection Scheme (CHPS) to facilitate droughts and threats posed by climate
peoples’ access to and the affordabili- change.
ty of quality health care. The CHPS is a
movement of solidarity which transfers Results and impacts
the costs of health care between people
to lower the costs for individuals: healthy More than 92,500 members were enrolled
people subsidize the cost of health and in the CHPS in 2020. Through the RHCs
medical care for the sick. The CHPS aims and the CHPS, RAHA succeeds in offering
to foster “caring communities” through social protection in terms of preventive
people’s active participation in health and curative health care to a large group
services and their willingness to make a of vulnerable people in districts where
WorldRiskReport 2021 23Pakistan
Empowerment of Women through
Self-Help Groups
Rank 85 in WorldRiskIndex 2021 Country profile high levels of poverty and socio-eco-
nomic inequality, especially between
WorldRiskIndex 6.80 The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is locat- urban and rural areas. Many families
ed in South Asia and is bordered by the are dependent on economically active
Exposure 11.95 Himalayas to the northeast and the Indi- male household members who can bare-
an Ocean to the south. The country faces ly meet their daily needs. Opportunities
Vulnerability 56.88 major geological and climatic challenges, for women to generate income are very
with earthquakes, floods, and droughts limited. Deeply rooted cultural norms and
posing significant threats. The National values contribute to women’s discrimina-
Disaster Management Authority NDMA tion and make it difficult for women to
is responsible for implementing all areas access the labor market. This discrimina-
of disaster management at the federal tion already begins in childhood. Despite
level. This includes the development of compulsory schooling, only 56 percent of
guidelines for the protection of vulnera- children between the ages of five and 16
ble groups and standardized procedures attend school. Particularly, girls attend
in the event of a disaster. school less frequently and for shorter
periods. The national literacy rate is 59
Despite some progress in the last two percent, among women only 46 percent.
decades, the country is characterized by The prerequisites for a socially and
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