THE RAILWAY MARKET IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST - Facts, Figures, Players, Trends - SCI Verkehr
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Fehler! Kein Text mit angegebener Formatvorlage im Dokument. 2018
THE RAILWAY MARKET
IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
Facts, Figures, Players, Trends
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THE RAILWAY MARKET IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
Facts, Figures, Players, Trends
Available in English from 30th May 2018.
Now you can also purchase the data annex in Excel format (see overview data sheets on page no. 6
for more information).
Although there are no physical links between or across them, the railway markets of Africa and the
Middle East share a number of characteristics and trends. Core markets in the region are part of
major international transport corridors to Asia and Europe. In this context, they have become subject
to substantial spending from interested parties. Major network enhancements and upgrades and
rolling stock procurements followed. After the downturn on the global commodity markets, however,
several dedicated freight-only railway developments have been postponed. In parallel, governments
and railway companies have been promoting passenger rail transport in and between conurbations.
All these trends together define a highly interesting landscape of market structures and business
opportunities.
Against this background, the present study draws a coherent and up-to-date picture of the market’s
current landscape and its major development trends – based on current market data collected in our
database and processed by our experts, applying our proven and tested forecast methodology and
thus enabling sustainable strategic decisions.
In concrete terms, the market study “The Railway Market in Africa and the Middle East”
provides:
– An overview of the region’s political, demographic and economic situation, its opportunities and
threats
– An independent and differentiated view on current foreign investment, related national and
international policies and strategies
– A special focus on the recent and future development of Sino-African relations
– An analysis and forecast of the transport markets for freight and passenger mainline services and
urban rail transit
– The present inventories, developments and market volumes for infrastructure, system technology
and rolling stock for mainline railways and urban rail transit
– Listings of recent, current and known future infrastructure projects and rolling stock procurements
The annex contains approx. 40 fact sheets presenting the major present and future corridors and
etworks for passenger and freight rail services, as well as of transport companies, infrastructure
managers, investors, and manufacturers.
Explore our additional offer of the data annex in Excel format
– All in this study displayed figures and graphs concerning markets, installed bases and deliveries
are transparently and comprehensively available
– Apply the data sets for an individual evaluation and configuration or to access and supplement
available market data
SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company which specialises in the technology and
economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide
range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad, and we
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specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in
the transport and rail industries, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and
economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and municipal level.
Contact:
SCI Verkehr GmbH
Alexander Apking
Phone: +49 221 93178 20
Email: a.apking@sci.de
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CONTENTS
1 Executive Summary .............................................................................................. 20
1.1 General Findings ........................................................................................................ 20
1.2 Installed Base, Network and Fleet Development ....................................................... 22
1.3 The Transport Market ................................................................................................. 24
1.4 The Equipment Market: Products and Services ........................................................ 28
2 Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study............................................ 30
2.1 Delimitation of the Rail Market ................................................................................... 31
2.2 Market Analysis Methodology .................................................................................... 38
3 Market Environment ............................................................................................. 44
3.1 Social and Economic Framework .............................................................................. 44
3.2 Political Antagonisms ................................................................................................. 46
3.3 Economic Influence of Other Regions ....................................................................... 47
3.4 Mining and Logistics .................................................................................................. 49
3.5 Railway Infrastructure ................................................................................................. 50
3.6 Passenger Rail ........................................................................................................... 51
3.7 Summary .................................................................................................................... 54
4 The Railway Market in the Middle East ............................................................... 55
4.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................... 55
4.2 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 56
4.3 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 59
4.4 Core Market: Iran ....................................................................................................... 60
4.5 Core Market: Israel ..................................................................................................... 68
4.6 Core Market: Saudi Arabia ......................................................................................... 75
5 The Railway Market in Northern Africa ................................................................ 82
5.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................... 82
5.2 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 82
5.3 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 85
6 The Railway Market in Sub-Saharan Africa ......................................................... 86
6.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................... 86
6.2 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 86
6.3 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 89
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7 The Railway Market in Southern Africa ............................................................... 90
7.1 Market Environment ................................................................................................... 90
7.2 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 90
7.3 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 92
8 The Railway Market in South Africa..................................................................... 93
8.1 Socio-Economic Indicators and Market Overview ..................................................... 93
8.2 Market Environment, Market Conditions, Investment ................................................ 94
8.3 Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 96
8.4 Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 98
9 The Equipment Market: Infrastructure and System Technology ........................ 99
9.1 Installed Base and Network Development ................................................................. 99
9.2 Important Infrastructure Projects ............................................................................. 100
9.3 Track System ........................................................................................................... 105
9.4 Electrification ............................................................................................................ 108
9.5 Control Command and Signalling ........................................................................... 112
9.6 Passenger-Related Information Technology ........................................................... 114
10 The Equipment Market: Rolling Stock ............................................................... 116
10.1 Locomotives ............................................................................................................. 116
10.2 Mainline Passenger Vehicles (High Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches)
.................................................................................................................................. 130
10.3 Urban Rail Transit Vehicles (Metro and Light Rail Vehicles) .................................... 148
10.4 Freight Wagons ........................................................................................................ 162
ANNEXE
1 Major Infrastructure Developments ................................................................... 172
2 Important Transport Companies and Infrastructure Managers ........................ 172
3 Important Rail Sector Investors and Holding Companies ................................ 172
4 Manufacturers .................................................................................................... 172
The study includes 67 figures and 62 tables.
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DATA ANNEX IN EXCEL FORMAT
DATA SHEETS OVERVIEW
1 Market Overview
1.1 World Market Overview (Pivot)
1.2 Network Length (Pivot)
1.3 Transport Performance (Pivot)
1.4 Market Volume (Pivot)
1.5 World Market Overview (Data)
1.6 Network Length (Data)
1.7 Transport Performance (Data)
1.8 Market Volume (Data)
2 Installed Base
2.1 Installed Base Overview (Pivot)
2.2 Installed Base Country (Pivot)
2.3 Installed Base Age (Pivot)
2.4 Installed Base Overview (Data)
2.5 Installed Base Country (Data)
2.6 Installed Base Age (Data)
3 Deliveries
3.1 Deliveries Manufacturer (Pivot)
3.2 Deliveries Manufacturer (Data)
4 Additional Tables
4.1 Project Overview (Data)
4.2 Additional Figures
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1 Extract from the Study
(…)
CAGR
Network Length 2017 Network Length 2022
2017–2022
[route-km] [route-km]
[% p.a.]
By Subregion and Core Market
Middle East xx xx xx
– Iran xx xx xx
– Israel xx xx xx
– Saudi Arabia xx xx xx
Northern Africa xx xx xx
Sub-Saharan Africa xx xx xx
Southern Africa xx xx xx
South Africa xx xx xx
By Transport Market
High Speed Rail xx xx xx
Conventional Railway xx xx xx
Urban Rail Transit xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
Network lengths at year’s end and rounded to the nearest 10 route-km.
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; p.a. = per annum
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Table 1: Africa / Middle East – Current Average Market Volumes, Market Shares, and Market Development by Subregion
and Core Market
Data table (additional offer): 1.1 World Market Overview
(…)
Transport Performance 2016
Subregion Share [%]
[million tkm]
Middle East xx 16
Northern Africa xx 2
Sub-Saharan Africa xx 9
Southern Africa xx 5
South Africa (including Lesotho) xx 66
Africa / Middle East xx 100
Transport performance rounded to the nearest 10 million tkm
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Table 2: Africa / Middle East – Fleet Development
Data table (additional offer): 1.1 World Market Overview
More than 80% of all freight rail transport performance is realised in the Middle East and South Africa,
which means practically in Iran and the Republic of South Africa (both are core markets in this study).
This market structure is not about to change in the near future.
(…)
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Average Average
CAGR
Market Volume Market Volume Volatility
2017–2022
2017 2022 [%]
[% p.a.]
[EUR million] [EUR million]
By Subregion and Core Market
Middle East xx xx xx xx
– Iran xx xx xx xx
– Israel xx xx xx xx
– Saudi Arabia xx xx xx xx
Northern Africa xx xx xx xx
Sub-Saharan Africa xx xx xx xx
Southern Africa xx xx xx xx
South Africa xx xx xx xx
By Transport Market
High Speed Rail xx xx xx xx
Conventional Railway xx xx xx xx
Urban Rail Transit xx xx xx xx
By Product Group
Track System xx xx xx xx
Electrification xx xx xx xx
Control Command and Signalling xx xx xx xx
Passenger-Related Information
xx xx xx xx
Technology
Locomotives xx xx xx xx
Mainline Passenger Vehicles xx xx xx xx
Urban Rail Transit Vehicles xx xx xx xx
Freight Wagons xx xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx xx
Market volumes rounded to the next EUR 10 million.
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; p.a. = per annum
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Table 3: Africa / Middle East – Transport Performance by Subregion – Urban Rail Transit
Data table (additional offer): 1.3 Transport Performance
(…)
The region is home to more than 1.4 billion, of whom 226 million (~16%) live in the Middle East,
which also accounts for approx. 15% of the region’s total surface. Population is growing in all
subregions and core markets. The highest annual growth rates can be seen in Sub-Saharan and
Southern Africa. Israel is showing the highest and Saudi Arabia the lowest population density; most
other market areas range around the region’s average of 40/km 2, which is a rather poor condition for
the establishment of cost-efficient passenger rail transport.
(…)
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Commuter Rail and Urban Rail Transit in the Middle East
´Mashhad
Tabriz
SYRIA
Damascus Tehran
LEBANON
Haifa-Nazareth IRAQ
ISRAEL Tel Aviv Ahwaz IRAN
Amman-Zarqa Esfahan
PALESTINE Jerusalem
Be‘er Sheva JORDAN Shiraz
Commuter Rail:
In Operation Kuwait City
Under Construction Manamah
Riyadh Jubail
Planned Dubai
Doha
Abu Dhabi
Metro:
Mecca
UAE
In Operation OMAN
Under Construction SAUDI ARABIA
Planned Jeddah
Light Rail Transit:
In Operation
Under Construction YEMEN
Planned
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 1: Market Environment – Commuter Rail and Urban Rail Transit in the Middle East
(…)
Saudi Arabia
Region: Africa / Middle East
Subregion: Middle East
Socio-Economic Indicators
Territory 2 149 690 km2
Population 2017 32.4 million
Population Density 2017 15 inh./ km2
Population Growth 2017–2022 xx % p.a.
Level of Urbanisation 2017 xx %
Credit Rating 2016 xx
Ease of Doing Business Rank 2017 xx
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Current Prices 2017 USD xx billion
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in PPP 2017 USD xx billion
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita in PPP 2017 Int.-USD xx
GDP Growth (constant prices) 2017–2022 xx % p.a.
Inflation Rate 2017 xx %
… … … …
Table 4: Saudi Arabia – Socio-Economic Indicators, Rail Networks, Transport and Equipment Markets
Data table (additional offer): 4.2 Additional Figures
(…)
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Northern Africa – Transport Performance 2010–2022 – Mainline Passenger Rail
[million pkm]
40 000
Forecast
35 070
29 300 32 880
30 000 29 890
26 900
20 000
CAGR 2010–2016: CAGR 2016–2022:
= –3.0% +0.3% (Base Case)
+1.9% (Upside Case)
–1.4% (Downside Case)
10 0000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Base Case Upside Case Downside Case
Rounded to the nearest 10 million. © SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 2: Northern Africa – Transport Performance 2010–2022 – Mainline Passenger Rail
(…)
Average Market
CAGR Volitility
Market Volume and Market Development Volume 2017
2017–2022 [%] [%]
[EUR million p.a.]
by Product Group
Track System xx xx xx
Electrification xx xx xx
Control Command and Signalling xx xx xx
Passenger-Related Information Technology xx xx xx
Locomotives xx xx xx
Mainline Passenger Vehicles xx xx xx
Urban Rail Transit Vehicles xx xx xx
Freight Wagons xx xx xx
by Transport Mode
High Speed Rail (HSR) xx xx xx
Conventional Railway (CR) xx xx xx
Metro (M) xx xx xx
Light Rail Transit (LRT) xx xx xx
by Investment Target
New Development and Upgrade (OEM) xx xx xx
Renewal and Maintenance (After Sales) xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Table 5: Sub-Saharan Africa – Products and Services
Data table (additional offer): 1.4 Market Volume
(…)
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Trans- Invest
Route Com-
Country Project port N/U Status Start [EUR
[km] pletion
Mode million]
Swaziland xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
Namibia /
xx xx xx xx xx xx xx xx
Zambia
… … … … … … … … …
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Table 6: Infrastructure and System Technology – Projects / Southern Africa
Data table (additional offer): 4.1 Project Overview (Data)
(…)
5-Year Future
Drivers Brief Description Relevance
Trend
Available
Investment xx xx xx
Funds
Political
Backing of
xx xx xx
Network
Development
… … … …
Relevance: = Very high, = High, = Medium, = Low, = Very low
5-Year Future Trend (Compared to Expected Real Economic Growth):
= Much above, = Above, = In line, = Below, = Much below
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Table 7: Track System – Procurement Drivers
(…)
Africa / Middle East: Locomotives – Fleet by Type and Country 2017 [units]
South Africa
Iran
Egypt
Algeria
Morocco
Tunisia
Iraq
Kenya
Nigeria
Syria
Other Countries
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Diesel Locomotives Electric Locomotives
Total: ~8,360 units
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 3: Locomotives – Fleet by Type and Country 2017
Data table (additional offer): 2.1 Installed Base Overview
(…)
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Africa / Middle East: Mainline Passenger Vehicles
(High-Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches) – Age Structure [units]
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
before 1978 1978-1982 1983-1987 1988-1992 1993-1997 1998-2002 2003-2007 2008-2012 2013-2017
High-Speed Trains Diesel Multiple Units Electric Multiple Units Passenger Coaches
Average Age: High Speed Trains – 1.9 years; DMUs – 19.9 years; EMUs – 38.4 years;
Passenger Coaches: 32.2 years; Total: 32.0 years
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figure 4: Mainline Passenger Vehicles (High Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches) – Age Structure
Data table (additional offer): 2.3 Installed Base Age
(…)
Table 8: Electric Multiple Units – Procurements
Max.
Units Delivery
Country Type speed Remarks
[No.] from/to
[km/h]
Middle East
In 2008 Siemens and MAPNA signed a technology transfer
agreement covering the production of 150 IranRunner diesel
locomotives, the first 30 of which were supplied from
planned
2020e– Germany. However in January 2010 Siemens announced it
Iran EMU 100 140e
2026e would withdraw from the Iranian market on the completion of
investment
its existing contracts. On 6 January 2016, Islamic Republic of
Iran Railways (RAI) and Siemens signed a memorandum of
understanding for potential co-operation in the rail sector.
… … … … … …
Northern Africa
… … … … … …
Sub-Saharan Africa
… … … … … …
Southern Africa
… … … … … …
South Africa
… … … … … …
e = estimated
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
(…)
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CAGR
Average Volatility
By Subregion and Core Market 2017–2022
Fleet Size 2017 [%]
[% p.a.]
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
Middle East Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
− Iran Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
− Israel Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
− Saudi Arabia Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
Northern Africa Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
… … … … …
Metro Cars [cars] xx xx xx
Africa / Middle East Light Rail Vehicles [units] xx xx xx
Total xx xx xx
Fleet sizes rounded to the nearest 10 units/cars. (…)
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Table 9: Urban Transit Vehicles – Installed Base and Fleet Development
Data table (additional offer): 2.1 Installed Base Overview
(…)
Africa / Middle East: Freight Wagons – Manufacturers‘ Market Shares 2013–2017 [units]
xx
xx% xx
xx%
xx
Total:
xx% ~xx units
xx
xx%
xx
xx%
xx%
Others
© SCI Verkehr GmbH
Figures rounded to the nearest 10 units.
Figure 5: Freight Wagons – Manufacturers’ Market Shares 2013–2017
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