THE RAILWAY MARKET IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST - Facts, Figures, Players, Trends - SCI Verkehr

 
THE RAILWAY MARKET IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST - Facts, Figures, Players, Trends - SCI Verkehr
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          THE RAILWAY MARKET
IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
                                      Facts, Figures, Players, Trends

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THE RAILWAY MARKET IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST - Facts, Figures, Players, Trends - SCI Verkehr
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THE RAILWAY MARKET IN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST
Facts, Figures, Players, Trends

Available in English from 30th May 2018.
Now you can also purchase the data annex in Excel format (see overview data sheets on page no. 6
for more information).

Although there are no physical links between or across them, the railway markets of Africa and the
Middle East share a number of characteristics and trends. Core markets in the region are part of
major international transport corridors to Asia and Europe. In this context, they have become subject
to substantial spending from interested parties. Major network enhancements and upgrades and
rolling stock procurements followed. After the downturn on the global commodity markets, however,
several dedicated freight-only railway developments have been postponed. In parallel, governments
and railway companies have been promoting passenger rail transport in and between conurbations.
All these trends together define a highly interesting landscape of market structures and business
opportunities.

Against this background, the present study draws a coherent and up-to-date picture of the market’s
current landscape and its major development trends – based on current market data collected in our
database and processed by our experts, applying our proven and tested forecast methodology and
thus enabling sustainable strategic decisions.

In concrete terms, the market study “The Railway Market in Africa and the Middle East”
provides:
–   An overview of the region’s political, demographic and economic situation, its opportunities and
    threats
–   An independent and differentiated view on current foreign investment, related national and
    international policies and strategies
–   A special focus on the recent and future development of Sino-African relations
–   An analysis and forecast of the transport markets for freight and passenger mainline services and
    urban rail transit
–   The present inventories, developments and market volumes for infrastructure, system technology
    and rolling stock for mainline railways and urban rail transit
–   Listings of recent, current and known future infrastructure projects and rolling stock procurements

The annex contains approx. 40 fact sheets presenting the major present and future corridors and
etworks for passenger and freight rail services, as well as of transport companies, infrastructure
managers, investors, and manufacturers.

        Explore our additional offer of the data annex in Excel format

–   All in this study displayed figures and graphs concerning markets, installed bases and deliveries
    are transparently and comprehensively available
–   Apply the data sets for an individual evaluation and configuration or to access and supplement
    available market data

SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company which specialises in the technology and
economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide
range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad, and we

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specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. Our activities focus on companies in
the transport and rail industries, logistics, public and private transport companies and transport and
economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and municipal level.

Contact:
SCI Verkehr GmbH
Alexander Apking
Phone: +49 221 93178 20
Email: a.apking@sci.de

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CONTENTS

1     Executive Summary .............................................................................................. 20

1.1   General Findings ........................................................................................................ 20
1.2   Installed Base, Network and Fleet Development ....................................................... 22
1.3   The Transport Market ................................................................................................. 24
1.4   The Equipment Market: Products and Services ........................................................ 28

2     Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study............................................ 30

2.1   Delimitation of the Rail Market ................................................................................... 31
2.2   Market Analysis Methodology .................................................................................... 38

3     Market Environment ............................................................................................. 44

3.1   Social and Economic Framework .............................................................................. 44
3.2   Political Antagonisms ................................................................................................. 46
3.3   Economic Influence of Other Regions ....................................................................... 47
3.4   Mining and Logistics .................................................................................................. 49
3.5   Railway Infrastructure ................................................................................................. 50
3.6   Passenger Rail ........................................................................................................... 51
3.7   Summary .................................................................................................................... 54

4     The Railway Market in the Middle East ............................................................... 55

4.1   Market Environment ................................................................................................... 55
4.2   Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 56
4.3   Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 59
4.4   Core Market: Iran ....................................................................................................... 60
4.5   Core Market: Israel ..................................................................................................... 68
4.6   Core Market: Saudi Arabia ......................................................................................... 75

5     The Railway Market in Northern Africa ................................................................ 82

5.1   Market Environment ................................................................................................... 82
5.2   Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 82
5.3   Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 85

6     The Railway Market in Sub-Saharan Africa ......................................................... 86

6.1   Market Environment ................................................................................................... 86
6.2   Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 86
6.3   Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 89

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7      The Railway Market in Southern Africa ............................................................... 90

7.1    Market Environment ................................................................................................... 90
7.2    Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 90
7.3    Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 92

8      The Railway Market in South Africa..................................................................... 93

8.1    Socio-Economic Indicators and Market Overview ..................................................... 93
8.2    Market Environment, Market Conditions, Investment ................................................ 94
8.3    Transport Market ........................................................................................................ 96
8.4    Equipment Market: Products and Services ............................................................... 98

9      The Equipment Market: Infrastructure and System Technology ........................ 99

9.1    Installed Base and Network Development ................................................................. 99
9.2    Important Infrastructure Projects ............................................................................. 100
9.3    Track System ........................................................................................................... 105
9.4    Electrification ............................................................................................................ 108
9.5    Control Command and Signalling ........................................................................... 112
9.6    Passenger-Related Information Technology ........................................................... 114

10     The Equipment Market: Rolling Stock ............................................................... 116

10.1   Locomotives ............................................................................................................. 116
10.2   Mainline Passenger Vehicles (High Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches)
       .................................................................................................................................. 130
10.3   Urban Rail Transit Vehicles (Metro and Light Rail Vehicles) .................................... 148
10.4   Freight Wagons ........................................................................................................ 162

ANNEXE

1      Major Infrastructure Developments ................................................................... 172

2      Important Transport Companies and Infrastructure Managers ........................ 172

3      Important Rail Sector Investors and Holding Companies ................................ 172

4      Manufacturers .................................................................................................... 172

The study includes 67 figures and 62 tables.

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                   DATA ANNEX IN EXCEL FORMAT

DATA SHEETS OVERVIEW

1 Market Overview
1.1 World Market Overview (Pivot)
1.2 Network Length (Pivot)
1.3 Transport Performance (Pivot)
1.4 Market Volume (Pivot)
1.5 World Market Overview (Data)
1.6 Network Length (Data)
1.7 Transport Performance (Data)
1.8 Market Volume (Data)

2 Installed Base
2.1 Installed Base Overview (Pivot)
2.2 Installed Base Country (Pivot)
2.3 Installed Base Age (Pivot)
2.4 Installed Base Overview (Data)
2.5 Installed Base Country (Data)
2.6 Installed Base Age (Data)

3 Deliveries
3.1 Deliveries Manufacturer (Pivot)
3.2 Deliveries Manufacturer (Data)

4 Additional Tables
4.1 Project Overview (Data)
4.2 Additional Figures

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1     Extract from the Study

(…)

                                                                                                               CAGR
                                                    Network Length 2017       Network Length 2022
                                                                                                             2017–2022
                                                        [route-km]                [route-km]
                                                                                                              [% p.a.]
By Subregion and Core Market
Middle East                                                              xx                        xx                     xx
– Iran                                                                   xx                        xx                     xx
– Israel                                                                 xx                        xx                     xx
– Saudi Arabia                                                           xx                        xx                     xx
Northern Africa                                                          xx                        xx                     xx
Sub-Saharan Africa                                                       xx                        xx                     xx
Southern Africa                                                          xx                        xx                     xx
South Africa                                                             xx                        xx                     xx
By Transport Market
High Speed Rail                                                          xx                        xx                     xx
Conventional Railway                                                     xx                        xx                     xx
Urban Rail Transit                                                       xx                        xx                     xx
Total                                                                    xx                        xx                     xx
Network lengths at year’s end and rounded to the nearest 10 route-km.
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; p.a. = per annum
                                                                                                   © SCI Verkehr GmbH
    Table 1: Africa / Middle East – Current Average Market Volumes, Market Shares, and Market Development by Subregion
    and Core Market
    Data table (additional offer): 1.1 World Market Overview

(…)

                                                                Transport Performance 2016
                       Subregion                                                                             Share [%]
                                                                       [million tkm]

Middle East                                                                                       xx                      16
Northern Africa                                                                                   xx                       2
Sub-Saharan Africa                                                                                xx                       9
Southern Africa                                                                                   xx                       5
South Africa (including Lesotho)                                                                  xx                      66
Africa / Middle East                                                                              xx                     100
Transport performance rounded to the nearest 10 million tkm
                                                                                                          © SCI Verkehr GmbH
    Table 2: Africa / Middle East – Fleet Development
    Data table (additional offer): 1.1 World Market Overview

More than 80% of all freight rail transport performance is realised in the Middle East and South Africa,
which means practically in Iran and the Republic of South Africa (both are core markets in this study).
This market structure is not about to change in the near future.
(…)

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                                             Average               Average
                                                                                           CAGR
                                           Market Volume         Market Volume                                    Volatility
                                                                                         2017–2022
                                               2017                  2022                                           [%]
                                                                                          [% p.a.]
                                           [EUR million]         [EUR million]
By Subregion and Core Market
Middle East                                                xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
– Iran                                                     xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
– Israel                                                   xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
– Saudi Arabia                                             xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Northern Africa                                            xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Sub-Saharan Africa                                         xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Southern Africa                                            xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
South Africa                                               xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
By Transport Market
High Speed Rail                                            xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Conventional Railway                                       xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Urban Rail Transit                                         xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
By Product Group
Track System                                               xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Electrification                                            xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Control Command and Signalling                             xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Passenger-Related Information
                                                           xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Technology
Locomotives                                                xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Mainline Passenger Vehicles                                xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Urban Rail Transit Vehicles                                xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Freight Wagons                                             xx                    xx                      xx                    xx
Total                                                      xx                   xx                       xx                    xx
Market volumes rounded to the next EUR 10 million.
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; p.a. = per annum
                                                                                                              © SCI Verkehr GmbH
   Table 3: Africa / Middle East – Transport Performance by Subregion – Urban Rail Transit
   Data table (additional offer): 1.3 Transport Performance

(…)

The region is home to more than 1.4 billion, of whom 226 million (~16%) live in the Middle East,
which also accounts for approx. 15% of the region’s total surface. Population is growing in all
subregions and core markets. The highest annual growth rates can be seen in Sub-Saharan and
Southern Africa. Israel is showing the highest and Saudi Arabia the lowest population density; most
other market areas range around the region’s average of 40/km 2, which is a rather poor condition for
the establishment of cost-efficient passenger rail transport.
(…)

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 Commuter Rail and Urban Rail Transit in the Middle East

                                                                                                     ´Mashhad
                                                                              Tabriz
                                                           SYRIA
                                                           Damascus                      Tehran
                                             LEBANON
                                        Haifa-Nazareth                IRAQ
                                     ISRAEL Tel Aviv                             Ahwaz             IRAN
                                                             Amman-Zarqa                 Esfahan
                                         PALESTINE        Jerusalem
                                            Be‘er Sheva   JORDAN                              Shiraz
             Commuter Rail:
             In Operation                                                     Kuwait City
             Under Construction                                                        Manamah
                                                                           Riyadh            Jubail
             Planned                                                                                     Dubai
                                                                                       Doha
                                                                                                     Abu Dhabi
             Metro:
                                                                      Mecca
                                                                                                   UAE
             In Operation                                                                                OMAN
             Under Construction                                            SAUDI ARABIA
             Planned                                         Jeddah

             Light Rail Transit:
             In Operation
             Under Construction                                                  YEMEN
             Planned
                                                                                                                            © SCI Verkehr GmbH

    Figure 1: Market Environment – Commuter Rail and Urban Rail Transit in the Middle East

(…)

                                                                        Saudi Arabia

Region:       Africa / Middle East
Subregion: Middle East

Socio-Economic Indicators
Territory                                                                                                                   2 149 690 km2
Population 2017                                                                                                                  32.4 million
Population Density 2017                                                                                                           15 inh./ km2
Population Growth 2017–2022                                                                                                        xx % p.a.
Level of Urbanisation 2017                                                                                                         xx %
Credit Rating 2016                                                                                                                 xx
Ease of Doing Business Rank 2017                                                                                                   xx
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Current Prices 2017                                                              USD               xx billion
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in PPP 2017                                                                         USD               xx billion
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per Capita in PPP 2017                                                              Int.-USD          xx
GDP Growth (constant prices) 2017–2022                                                                                             xx % p.a.
Inflation Rate 2017                                                                                                                xx %
…                                                                                                                …                … …
    Table 4: Saudi Arabia – Socio-Economic Indicators, Rail Networks, Transport and Equipment Markets
    Data table (additional offer): 4.2 Additional Figures

(…)

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 Northern Africa – Transport Performance 2010–2022 – Mainline Passenger Rail
 [million pkm]
  40 000
                                                                            Forecast
   35 070
                                                                   29 300                                                     32 880
  30 000                                                                                                                      29 890
                                                                                                                              26 900

  20 000

                                      CAGR 2010–2016:                                  CAGR 2016–2022:
            =                             –3.0%                                       +0.3% (Base Case)
                                                                                      +1.9% (Upside Case)
                                                                                     –1.4% (Downside Case)
  10 0000
         2010         2011        2012    2013   2014      2015   2016     2017  2018    2019         2020     2021      2022
                                             Base Case         Upside Case      Downside Case

 Rounded to the nearest 10 million.                                                                            © SCI Verkehr GmbH

   Figure 2: Northern Africa – Transport Performance 2010–2022 – Mainline Passenger Rail

(…)

                                                                          Average Market
                                                                                                    CAGR                 Volitility
Market Volume and Market Development                                       Volume 2017
                                                                                                2017–2022 [%]              [%]
                                                                         [EUR million p.a.]
by Product Group
Track System                                                                               xx                  xx                      xx
Electrification                                                                            xx                  xx                      xx
Control Command and Signalling                                                             xx                  xx                      xx
Passenger-Related Information Technology                                                   xx                  xx                      xx
Locomotives                                                                                xx                  xx                      xx
Mainline Passenger Vehicles                                                                xx                  xx                      xx
Urban Rail Transit Vehicles                                                                xx                  xx                      xx
Freight Wagons                                                                             xx                  xx                      xx
by Transport Mode
High Speed Rail (HSR)                                                                      xx                  xx                      xx
Conventional Railway (CR)                                                                  xx                  xx                      xx
Metro (M)                                                                                  xx                  xx                      xx
Light Rail Transit (LRT)                                                                   xx                  xx                      xx
by Investment Target
New Development and Upgrade (OEM)                                                          xx                  xx                      xx
Renewal and Maintenance (After Sales)                                                      xx                  xx                      xx
Total                                                                                     xx                   xx                     xx
                                                                                                                    © SCI Verkehr GmbH
   Table 5: Sub-Saharan Africa – Products and Services
   Data table (additional offer): 1.4 Market Volume

(…)

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                                                 Trans-                                                                     Invest
                                                                    Route                                      Com-
Country       Project                             port     N/U                      Status       Start                       [EUR
                                                                    [km]                                      pletion
                                                 Mode                                                                       million]

Swaziland     xx                                     xx     xx        xx       xx                 xx            xx                xx

Namibia /
              xx                                     xx     xx        xx       xx                 xx            xx                xx
Zambia

…             …                                      …      …         …        …                  …             …                 …

                                                                                                               © SCI Verkehr GmbH
    Table 6: Infrastructure and System Technology – Projects / Southern Africa
    Data table (additional offer): 4.1 Project Overview (Data)

(…)

                                                                                                                        5-Year Future
Drivers               Brief Description                                                            Relevance
                                                                                                                           Trend

Available
Investment            xx                                                                                 xx                  xx
Funds
Political
Backing of
                      xx                                                                                 xx                  xx
Network
Development
…                     …                                                                                  …                   …

                           Relevance:     = Very high,   = High,    = Medium,     = Low,    = Very low
                                 5-Year Future Trend (Compared to Expected Real Economic Growth):
                                = Much above,  = Above,  = In line,  = Below,  = Much below
                                                                                                               © SCI Verkehr GmbH
    Table 7: Track System – Procurement Drivers

(…)

 Africa / Middle East: Locomotives – Fleet by Type and Country 2017 [units]
      South Africa
               Iran
             Egypt
            Algeria
          Morocco
            Tunisia
               Iraq
            Kenya
            Nigeria
              Syria
 Other Countries

                       0                     1,000                     2,000                     3,000                        4,000
                                             Diesel Locomotives                        Electric Locomotives
        Total: ~8,360 units
                                                                                                                  © SCI Verkehr GmbH

    Figure 3: Locomotives – Fleet by Type and Country 2017
    Data table (additional offer): 2.1 Installed Base Overview

(…)

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 Africa / Middle East: Mainline Passenger Vehicles
 (High-Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches) – Age Structure [units]
 3,500

 3,000

 2,500

 2,000

 1,500

 1,000

    500

        0
            before 1978 1978-1982       1983-1987   1988-1992      1993-1997     1998-2002    2003-2007    2008-2012    2013-2017
                   High-Speed Trains          Diesel Multiple Units          Electric Multiple Units       Passenger Coaches
       Average Age: High Speed Trains – 1.9 years; DMUs – 19.9 years; EMUs – 38.4 years;
       Passenger Coaches: 32.2 years; Total: 32.0 years
                                                                                                                   © SCI Verkehr GmbH

    Figure 4: Mainline Passenger Vehicles (High Speed Trains, Multiple Units, Passenger Coaches) – Age Structure
    Data table (additional offer): 2.3 Installed Base Age

(…)
Table 8: Electric Multiple Units – Procurements

                                            Max.
                                Units                   Delivery
 Country           Type                    speed                                                 Remarks
                                [No.]                   from/to
                                           [km/h]

                                                            Middle East
                                                                      In 2008 Siemens and MAPNA signed a technology transfer
                                                                      agreement covering the production of 150 IranRunner diesel
                                                                      locomotives, the first 30 of which were supplied from
               planned
                                                        2020e–        Germany. However in January 2010 Siemens announced it
Iran           EMU                 100         140e
                                                        2026e         would withdraw from the Iranian market on the completion of
               investment
                                                                      its existing contracts. On 6 January 2016, Islamic Republic of
                                                                      Iran Railways (RAI) and Siemens signed a memorandum of
                                                                      understanding for potential co-operation in the rail sector.

…              …                     …              …     …           …

                                                          Northern Africa

…              …                     …              …     …           …

                                                        Sub-Saharan Africa

…              …                     …              …     …           …

                                                          Southern Africa

…              …                     …              …     …           …

                                                           South Africa

…              …                     …              …     …           …

e = estimated
                                                                                                                © SCI Verkehr GmbH
(…)

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                                                                                                         CAGR
                                                                                    Average                              Volatility
By Subregion and Core Market                                                                           2017–2022
                                                                                 Fleet Size 2017                           [%]
                                                                                                        [% p.a.]
                               Metro Cars [cars]                                                  xx               xx                 xx
Middle East                    Light Rail Vehicles [units]                                        xx               xx                 xx
                               Total                                                            xx                 xx                 xx
                               Metro Cars [cars]                                                  xx               xx                 xx
−     Iran                     Light Rail Vehicles [units]                                        xx               xx                 xx
                               Total                                                            xx                 xx                 xx
                               Metro Cars [cars]                                                  xx               xx                 xx
−     Israel                   Light Rail Vehicles [units]                                        xx               xx                 xx
                               Total                                                            xx                 xx                 xx
                               Metro Cars [cars]                                                  xx               xx                 xx
−     Saudi Arabia             Light Rail Vehicles [units]                                        xx               xx                 xx
                               Total                                                            xx                 xx                 xx
                               Metro Cars [cars]                                                  xx               xx                 xx
Northern Africa                Light Rail Vehicles [units]                                        xx               xx                 xx
                               Total                                                            xx                 xx                 xx
…                              …                                                                  …                …                  …
                               Metro Cars [cars]                                                xx                 xx                 xx
Africa / Middle East           Light Rail Vehicles [units]                                      xx                 xx                 xx
                               Total                                                            xx                 xx                 xx
Fleet sizes rounded to the nearest 10 units/cars. (…)
                                                                                                                   © SCI Verkehr GmbH

    Table 9: Urban Transit Vehicles – Installed Base and Fleet Development
    Data table (additional offer): 2.1 Installed Base Overview

(…)
Africa / Middle East: Freight Wagons – Manufacturers‘ Market Shares 2013–2017 [units]

                                                                                         xx

                                                 xx%                                     xx
                                                                    xx%

                                                                                         xx
                                                        Total:
                                           xx%         ~xx units
                                                                                         xx
                                           xx%
                                                                                         xx
                                                                   xx%
                                                       xx%
                                                                                         Others

                                                                                              © SCI Verkehr GmbH

Figures rounded to the nearest 10 units.

    Figure 5: Freight Wagons – Manufacturers’ Market Shares 2013–2017

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