Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

1 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview Authors: Frank Dünnebeil & Udo Lambrecht IFEU-Institute Heidelberg Commissioned by © U. Steinbrich, pixelio.de

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

2 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Background and Scope Road Transport in Germany Emission Regulation Heavy Duty Vehicles in Europe Development of Fuel Quality – Europe/Germany Emissions from heavy-duty trucks – Measurements and Modelling Fuel efficiency and GHG emissions from heavy-duty trucks Development of Transport, Emissions and Fuel Efficiency Summary 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 5 6 7 8

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

3 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Background and Scope 1 Background & Scope § The large increase of road freight transport in recent decades has made heavy-duty trucks a major source of greenhouse gas emissions as well as NOx and PM air pollutant emissions. As a consequence, air pollution emission standards have been tightened constantly during recent years, esp. in the European Union and the USA. Furthermore, efforts are made to optimize fuel efficiency of heavy-duty engines and vehicles. § IFEU was commissioned by GIZ to carry out an analysis and discussion of the road freight transport situation with heavy-duty trucks in Germany.

This was done while considering transport developments and related emissions and energy consumption. § The objective of this analysis is to illustrate the efforts made in Germany and Europe to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from road freight transport, to highlight German experiences and to outline conditions for successful reductions of air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from increasing road freight transport. § The study focuses on long-haul trailer trucks with a maximum vehicle weight of 40 metric tons as the by far most important size class in road-freight transport in Germany.

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

4 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Background and Scope 1 Background § Goods transport increasing worldwide § Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDV) with relevant contribution to air pollutants and greenhouse gases § Fuel quality and emissions standards help to reduce environmental impacts Scope § Lessons from experiences with increasing goods transports in Germany § Describe the situation of heavy-duty trucks in Germany considering transport and emissions § Give an outlook of the future

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

5 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Road Transport in Germany 2 Road transport in Germany I § Road transport has been greatly increasing in recent decades.

In Germany road transport mileages today are more than 5 times higher compared to 1960. Concurrently, energy consumption and related (GHG) emissions have increased significantly. § The highest contribution to energy consumption in road transport comes from passenger cars (68% in 2010). In recent years though their energy consumption declined slightly despite ongoing mileage increases due to considerable efficiency gains. § In contrast, heavy-duty trucks contributed about 23% to energy consumption while having only 8% mileage share and their energy consumption is still on the rise. Hence road freight transport by heavy-duty trucks carries an increasing importance for fuel consumption and GHG emissions from road transport.

§ Air pollutant emissions also increased strongly with increasing road mileages over several years. However, the implementation and continuous tightening of emission regulations for all road vehicles have led to a strong decrease of important pollutants during the last 20 years, despite ongoing transport growth. § Especially the introduction of three-way catalytic converters has led to high reductions of NOx emissions from gasoline-fuelled light-duty vehicles. § Diesel-fuelled heavy-duty trucks have high NOx and diesel particle emissions. In the past, they contributed up to 46% to NOx emissions and 61% to particle emissions from road transport in Germany.

Since the mid-nineties, their emissions were strongly reduced as a result of European emission legislation. Despite that they still contributed 39% to NOx and 23% to exhaust particle emissions in 2010.

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

6 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Road Transport in Germany 2 Road transport in Germany II § In the last 15 years, transport performance (transport volumes x transport distances) with heavy-duty trucks (>3.5 – 40 metric tons gross vehicle weight) increased by 55%. § This increase was mainly caused by increasing transport performances of long-haul trailer trucks with a maximum vehicle weight (empty truck + load) up to 40 tons. With a share of 88% on transport performance in 2010, they are the dominating size class in Germany.

§ As the increasing freight volumes were mostly transported by 40-ton trucks, which have considerably higher payloads than smaller heavy-duty trucks, total road mileages of heavy-duty trucks increased by only 16% from 1995 to 2010. § In 2010 40-ton trucks had a 63% mileage share and, thus, where the dominating size class in road transport.

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

7 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Road Transport in Germany 2 High increase of truck transport leads to increasing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions… Annual mileage of road transport in Germany GHG emissions from road transport in Germany (well-to-wheel, inland values) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 billion   v ehicle   k ilometres   p er   y ear others heavy-­‐duty  trucks light  goods  vehicles buses cars two-­‐wheelers IFEU/TREMOD 2011 50 100 150 200 250 300 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 million   t ons   C O 2 equivalents others heavy-­‐duty  trucks light  goods  vehicles buses cars two-­‐wheelers IFEU/TREMOD 2011

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

8 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Road Transport in Germany 2 …contribution from heavy-duty trucks on NOx and PM emissions from road transport on a high level 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1'000 1'100 1'200 1'300 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 thousand   t ons   N O x others heavy-­‐duty  trucks light  goods  vehicles buses cars two-­‐wheelers IFEU/TREMOD 2011 Exhaust particle emissions from road transport in Germany NOx emissions from road transport in Germany 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 thousand   t ons   P M others heavy-­‐duty  trucks light  goods  vehicles buses cars IFEU/TREMOD 2011

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

9 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH 100 200 300 400 500 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 billion   t on-­‐km trailer  truck  >34-­‐40tons trailer  truck  12tons rigid  truck 34 tons gross vehicle weight (mostly 40 t) have a high and increasing share on ton-km and mileage 19% 11% 7% 63% mileage  share  2010 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 billion   v eh.km Annual  mileages  of  heavy-­‐duty  trucks  in  Germany trailer  truck  >34-­‐40tons trailer  truck  12tons rigid  truck  

Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

10 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Road Transport in Germany 2 How can specific emissions and fuel consumption of road- freight-transport with heavy-duty trucks be reduced?  Exhaust emission treatment and energy-saving technologies  Increase of vehicle load factors  Larger vehicles with higher payloads © M.

Hirschka, pixelio.de © T. Siepmann, pixelio.de empty source: EcotransIT source: EcotransIT © E. Kaliwoda, pixelio.de source: Emitec

11 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emission Regulation in Europe 3 Emission regulation in Europe § Harmonized exhaust emission regulation for heavy-duty vehicles in European Union started with Euro I (valid from 1992 for new engine types and 1993 for all new sales). The so far most ambitious emission standard Euro VI will become mandatory in 2013/2014. From Euro I to Euro VI, emission limit values for NOx were reduced by 95% and by 97% for diesel particles. § In addition, the test cycles for type approval procedures have been refined.

§ Up to the Euro II emission standard, a 13-mode steady-state diesel engine test cycle intro-duced by ECE Regulation No.49 (1988) and then adopted by the EEC [EEC Directive 88/77] had been used for type approval emission testing of heavy-duty highway engines.

§ Since the Euro III stage (2000), the ECE R-49 has been replaced by the European Stationary Cycle (ESC), a 13-mode, steady-state procedure, plus the European Transient Cycle (ETC), based on real road cycle measurements of heavy duty vehicles (source: www.dieselnet.com). § With Euro VI, newly developed world harmonized stationary and transient test cycles (WHSC, WHTC) become mandatory. § European emission standards up to Euro III were achieved with internal engine optimization measures. With Euro IV and V, two different exhaust after treatment systems are applied to meet the NOx and PM emission limits: § Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) + diesel particulate filter (DPF).

§ Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) without DPF § Both technologies require the use of diesel fuel with low sulphur content. § With the coming Euro VI emission standard which demands further strong reductions of NOx and PM emissions, the application of SCR systems and DPF is expected.

12 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emission Regulation in Europe 3 Exhaust gas emission legislation since 1992/93: High reduction of NOx and PM emissions 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 PM   i n   g /kWh NOx in  g/kWh EU  emission  limit  values  for  heavy-­‐duty  vehicles Euro  I   90/91   Euro  V(08/09) Euro  IV  (05/06)   Euro  II   95/96   Euro  III   00/01   Euro  VI  (13/14)   EU  emission  standards  for  heavy-­‐duty  vehicles  

13 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emission Regulation in Europe 3 Exhaust gas emission legislation since 1992/93: High reduction of NOx and PM emissions 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Euro  I (90/91) Euro  II (95/96) Euro  III (00/01) Euro  IV (05/06) Euro  V (08/09) Euro  VI (13/14) NOx   i n   g /kWh NOx emission  standards  for   heavy-­‐duty  vehicles  in  EU -­‐95% 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 Euro  I (90/91) Euro  II (95/96) Euro  III (00/01) Euro  IV (05/06) Euro  V (08/09) Euro  VI (13/14) PM   i n   g /kWh Particle  emission  standards  for   heavy-­‐duty  vehicles  in  EU -­‐97%

14 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emission Regulation in Europe 3 Test Cycles for type approval have been refined from stationary tests to transient cycles Euro  0-­‐II Euro  VI   Euro  III-­‐V   ETC   ESC   ECE  R49 WHSC   WHTC   Source:  dieselnet.com Source:  dieselnet.com Source:  Emitec  

15 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emission Regulation in Europe 3 Aftertreatment: From exhaust silencer to chemical plant….

1970 1980 1990 Soot  filter Active  particle  filter   (sporadic  application) Soot  filter Active  particle  filter   (sporadic  application) EGR  +  SCR  +  active  particle  filter   (for  Euro  VI,  EPA10  and  J09) EGR  +  SCR  +  active  particle  filter   (for  Euro  VI,  EPA10  and  J09) EGR  +  active  particle  filter   (for  EPA07) EGR  +  active  particle  filter   (for  EPA07) SCR (for  Euro  IV+V,  JP05) SCR (for  Euro  IV+V,  JP05) EGR (for  EPA04) EGR (for  EPA04) exhaust   g as   a ftertreatment   s ystems 1985 1975 from  2009 2007 2005 2004 1984 engine-­‐ types 2015 CRT Passive  particle  filter,   Euro  2+3  (sporadic   application) CRT Passive  particle  filter,   Euro  2+3  (sporadic   application) 1995 2000 2010 2005 1995 natural  aspirated  engines turbocharged  engines turbocharged  inter-­‐cooled  engines SCRT (for  EEV) SCRT (for  EEV) EGR  +  active  particle  filter   (for  JP05) EGR  +  active  particle  filter   (for  JP05) Source: Holloh Daimler, 2008

16 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emission Regulation in Europe 3 EGR, Particle Filters and SCR are advanced technologies for reducing exhaust emissions EGR+DPF SCR   Source:  CLAAS  POWER  SYSTEMS   Euro IV/V: two alternative exhaust aftertreatment systems. • Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) + diesel particulate filter (DPF). • Selective catalytic reduction (SCR), no DPF Euro VI: DPF and SCR expected

17 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emission Regulation in Europe 3 EGR more simple – SCR additional efficiency benefits EGR SCR Pros - No additional equipment (extra tank) - No loss of payload and fuel capacity - No handling changes for haulier and drivers - Simplicity of the system and possibilities for subsequent development (future standards) - No impact on maintenance and oil change intervals - Engine optimization can be focused on fuel efficiency Contras - Decreases power density, fuel efficiency - Potential engine durability and oil degradation issues (= shortened oil change intervals) - Engines are larger and possibly heavier, depending on power rating - Increases heat rejection, creating need for greater cooling capacity - Additional urea tank reduces vehicle’s payload and can lead to complications with bodywork assembly - Urea supply infrastructure needed - Urea has a tendency to harden at low temperatures (- 11°C) - Least effective in situations with low exhaust temperature (e.g.

urban operations, stop+go) - Limited additional efforts for the driver Sources: Vialtis 2005, FleetOwner 2008

18 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel Quality in Europe 4 Fuel quality in Europe § One important condition for the introduction of emission-reducing after treatment technologies with Euro IV and V was the regulation of diesel fuel quality – primary the reduction of the sulphur content. § In the European Union, standards for fuel quality were first developed by the European Standards Organization (CEN) and adopted by European legislation. The first fuel standard for the sulphur content of diesel fuels was defined with council directive 93/12/EEC, setting limits of 2,000 ppm (from 1994) and 500 ppm (from 1996).

These standards have been tightened with EU directives 98/70/EC and 2003/17/EC up to “sulphur-free” diesel with a maximum sulphur content of 10 ppm, obligatory as of 2009.

§ Developments of fuel quality in Europe reflect the success of these fuel quality regulations. Sulphur content in diesel fuels was considerably reduced in recent years. § In Germany, diesel fuels were “sulphur-free” by 2003. § In the European Union, about half of all 27 EU countries had “sulphur-free” diesel in 2008. All other EU countries had average sulphur contents in diesel fuels of no more than 30 ppm.

19 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel Quality in Europe 4 EU regulation on sulphur content in diesel fuels – important condition for environmentally friendly vehicle technologies EU  regulaOon  on  sulphur  content  in  diesel  fuels   200 400 600 800 1'000 1'200 1'400 1'600 1'800 2'000 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 ...

legal   s ulphur   c ontent   i n   f uel   i n   p pm 2000  ppm (93/12/EEC) 500  ppm (93/12/EEC) 350  ppm (98/70/EC) 50  ppm (98/70/EC) 10  ppm (2003/17/EC)

20 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH 200 400 600 800 1'000 1'200 1'400 1'600 1'800 2'000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 sulphur   c ontent   i n   f uel   i n   p pm Sulphur  content  of  diesel  fuels  in  Germany   Fuel Quality in Europe 4 Diesel fuel in Germany is “sulphur-free” since 2003... Source:  IFEU/TREMOD  2011  

21 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel Quality in Europe 4 ...

and Europe is on the way to “sulphur-free” diesel fuel 10 20 30 40 50 60 AT BE CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE EL HU IE IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT SK SI ES SE UK 2009 limits 2005 limits Source:  COM  (2004,  2011)  Quality  of  petrol  and  diesel  fuel  used  for  road  transport  in  the  European  Union   Average  sulphur  content  of  petrol  and  diesel  grades  across  the  EU  in  2008   NaOonal  sales  of  low  sulphur  diesel  grades  across  the  EU  (%)  in  2001  &  2008   sulphur   c ontent   i n   f uels   p pm   0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% AT BE DK FI FR DE EL IE IT LU NL PT ES SE UK 2001  (EU  15) Diesel  (

22 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emissions: Measurements and Modelling 5 Emissions from heavy-duty trucks I § As a result of exhaust emission and fuel quality regulations in Europe, specific NOx and PM emissions of trucks have improved in the last years. New heavy-duty trucks (Euro V, Euro VI) emit only a fraction of the emissions caused by older trucks. § Although the development of real emissions from new trucks is quite similar to the decrease of limit values, new emission standards did not always bring the expected emission improvements.

E.g. from Euro I to Euro II, real world NOx emissions of heavy- duty trucks increased slightly instead of expected reductions. This underlies the importance of resilient, real-world suitable test cycles. Further information can be found in Dieselnet 2003: “German UBA finds increased NOx emissions in Euro 2 trucks” http://www.dieselnet.com/news/2003/02uba.php). § Emission measurements on heavy-duty trucks show a high impact of usage patterns on real-world emissions.

§ Vehicle use under unsteady, dynamic conditions with low speeds, e.g. in urban areas, leads to higher emissions than motorway travel at higher and mostly constant speeds. § This is of special concern for SCR systems that are least effective in situations with low exhaust temperature. Specific NOx emissions of 40-ton trucks in urban operations can be more than three times higher than on motorways. § Hence, for reducing truck-related air pollution in cities, defining additional requirements for inner-urban emission reductions could be helpful.

23 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emissions: Measurements and Modelling 5 Emissions from heavy-duty trucks II § Furthermore, the utilization of vehicle’s payload affects specific emissions.

Higher load factors usually increase emissions per vehicle-km due to increased pollutant levels in the engine exhaust. § Certainly, for NOx from SCR-equipped trucks this correlation is not that clear. On one hand, engine-out emissions increase with the higher engine loads. On the other hand, however, the effectiveness of the downstream SCR system increases as well due to higher exhaust temperatures.

In the end, real emissions related to the transported goods (ton-km), decrease for all emission standards with increasing load factors. § The enhanced use of large 40-ton trailer trucks and their increasing share of road freight transport has also supported the reduction of air pollutant emissions per transported good (ton-km) in Germany. Trailer trucks with a maximum vehicle weight of 40 tons and about 26 tons of payload have considerably lower emissions per ton-km than smaller trucks with less payload.

24 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emissions: Measurements and Modelling 5 NOx and PM real world emissions improved significantly 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 EGR +DPF SCR EGR +DPF SCR <  Euro I Euro I Euro   II Euro   III Euro  IV Euro  V Euro   VI Average  NOx emission  factors   of  40-­‐ton  trucks  in  g/km IFEU/TREMOD  2011 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 EGR +DPF SCR EGR +DPF SCR <  Euro I Euro I Euro   II Euro   III Euro  IV Euro  V Euro   VI Average  PM  emission  factors   of  40-­‐ton  trucks  in  g/km IFEU/TREMOD  2011

25 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emissions: Measurements and Modelling 5 NOx and PM real world emissions improved significantly - though decreasing more slowly than emission legislation 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% EGR +DPF SCR EGR +DPF SCR Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro  IV Euro  V Euro VI NOx real  emissions   compared  to  standards average  emission  factors limit  values IFEU/TREMOD  2011 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% EGR +DPF SCR EGR +DPF SCR Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro  IV Euro  V Euro VI PM  real  emissions   compared  to  standards average  emission  factors limit  values IFEU/TREMOD  2011

26 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emissions: Measurements and Modelling 5 Usage patterns have high impact on emissions 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 EGR +DPF SCR EGR +DPF SCR <  Euro I Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro  IV Euro  V Euro VI NOx real  emissions  in  g/km (40-­‐ton  truck) motorway extra-­‐urban urban average IFEU/TREMOD  2011 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 EGR +DPF SCR EGR +DPF SCR <  Euro I Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro  IV Euro  V Euro VI PM  real  emissions  in  g/km (40-­‐ton  truck) motorway extra-­‐urban urban average IFEU/TREMOD  2011

27 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emissions: Measurements and Modelling 5 NOx and PM real-world emissions depend strongly from load Source: HBEFA 3.1 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 EGR +DPF SCR EGR +DPF SCR < Euro  I Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro  IV Euro  V Euro VI NOx emission  factors  of  40-­‐ton  trucks   with  different  vehicle  load  factors   0%  load 50%  load 100%  load in  g  per  veh.km 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 EGR +DPF SCR EGR +DPF SCR < Euro  I Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro  IV Euro  V Euro VI PM  emission  factors  of  40-­‐ton  trucks   with  different  vehicle  load  factors   0%  load 50%  load 100%  load in  g  per  veh.km

28 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Emissions: Measurements and Modelling 5 NOx and PM emissions per ton-km decrease strongly with vehicle size Source: HBEFA 3.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 rigid  truck >3.5-­‐12  tons rigid  truck >12  tons trailer  truck >20-­‐34  tons trailer  truck >34-­‐40  tons in  g  per  ton-­‐km Average  specific  NOx emissions  in  2010   for  different  truck  sizes  per  ton-­‐km (vehicle  load:  50%) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 rigid  truck >3.5-­‐12  tons rigid  truck >12  tons trailer  truck >20-­‐34  tons trailer  truck >34-­‐40  tons in  g  per  ton-­‐km Average  specific  PM  emissions  in  2010   for  different  truck  sizes  per  ton-­‐km (vehicle  load:  50%)

29 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions 6 Fuel efficiency and GHG emissions from heavy-duty trucks I § Long-term test reports for new, fully laden long-haul trucks with a total vehicle weight of 38-40 tons show significant reductions of specific fuel consumption since the mid 1960’s. However, during the last 20 years, fuel consumption of new trucks has nearly stagnated. A new 40-ton truck Euro V has about the same fuel efficiency as a Euro I truck. GHG emissions are directly related to the fuel efficiency, so specific GHG emissions per vehicle-km were not reduced.

§ This absence of further efficiency improvements of new heavy-duty trucks is strongly related to the introduction and tightening of European air pollution emission standards. Up to Euro III, these were generally achieved with internal engine optimizations, hampering fuel efficiency optimization. Also the EGR+DPF for Euro IV/V causes additional fuel penalties, compensating other, fuel-saving effects. Only, the use of SCR systems allows for engine optimization to focus more on fuel efficiency. § Similar to air pollutant emissions, fuel efficiency and GHG emissions per transported good (ton-km) improve with higher vehicle load factors.

Increasing the load factor of a Euro V 40-ton trailer truck from 50% to 67% leads to an increase of fuel consumption per vehicle km by 8%. However, per transport-km, specific fuel consumption and GHG emissions decrease by 20%.

§ It should be noted that the vehicle load does not only depend on logistical optimizations of the transport chain and avoidance of empty trips, but also on the kind of good. Heavy goods such as coal or liquids lead typically to a higher utilization of the vehicle’s capacity than light volume goods such as furniture, clothes etc.

30 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions 6 Fuel efficiency and GHG emissions from heavy-duty trucks II § 40-ton trailer trucks need on average more than twice the fuel per vehicle-km than small heavy-duty trucks with a gross vehicle weight less than 12 tons.

However, a 40-ton truck has a several times higher payload (about 24-26 tons vs. 3-5 tons). Thus, per transported ton, a large trailer truck is about 3 times more energy-efficient than a small heavy-duty truck. Therefore, meeting the increasing transport demand using primarily large 40-ton trailer trucks, has supported the improvement of fuel efficiency per transported good (ton-km) in Germany.

§ The relevance of different effects for the total fuel efficiency gains of road freight transport in Germany is reflected by decomposing the individual improvements: § In the last 15 years, technological efficiency gains yielded only improvements of fuel efficiency by about 6%. Combined with increasing vehicle loads, the efficiency gain was 20%. § The shift to larger vehicle sizes, esp. the increased share of large 40-ton trailer trucks yielded additional efficiency gains. Thus, specific fuel consumption per transported ton with heavy-duty trucks in Germany was reduced from 1995 to 2010 in total by 27%.

§ Specific GHG emissions decreased by 29%, hence, slightly more than fuel consumption This can be attributed to the usage of biofuels in Germany and additional reduction of specific GHG emissions.

31 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions 6 Significant reduction of fuel consumption since 1965 higher payload and technological improvements Source: Manfred Schuckert, Daimler AG, presented by Daimler on EC/ICCT-Workshop , November 2011

32 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions 6 …fuel consumption per ton km almost halved by technology improvements and higher loads Source: Manfred Schuckert, Daimler AG, presented by Daimler on EC/ICCT-Workshop , November 2011

33 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions 6 Significant reduction of specific fuel consumption before 1990; nearly stagnation the last 20 years Fuel  consumpOon  of  long-­‐haul  trucks  (GVW  38/40  tons)  in  long-­‐term  test  reports   Source: ACEA 2011 Commercial vehicles and CO2 Natural  aspired  engines   Turbo  charged  engines   Intercooled  charged  air   1986 changed route

34 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions 6 Energy  consumpOon  of  heavy  duty  trucks  depending  on  vehicle  load   (40  tons  gross  vehicle  weight,  Euro  V,  motorway,  hilly)   Higher loads lower strongly the specific fuel consumption Source: HBEFA 3.1, EcoTransIT (www.EcoTransIT.org) 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 200 400 600 800 1'000 1'200 1'400 1'600 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Specific   F uel   C onsumption   (Liter   /   1 00   v eh.km) Specific   C O 2 emissions  in   g rams  per   t on-­‐km   (exhaust   C O 2,   1 00%   f ossile  diesel vehicle  load  (tons)  g  CO2  /  ton-­‐km  L.

 diesel  /  100  veh.km average  load   all  goods typcial  load   volume  goods e.g.  industrial  parts,   consumer  goods  such  as   furniture,  clothes  etc. typical  load   bulk  goods e.g.  coal,  ore,  oil,   fertilizer  etc. 101  g/tkm 61  g/tkm 49  g/tkm 27  l/100km 30  l/100km 33  l/100km

35 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH 2 4 6 8 10 12 rigid  truck   >3.5-­‐12  tons rigid  truck   >12  tons trailer  truck   >20-­‐34  tons trailer  truck   >34-­‐40  tons Average  specific  fuel  consumption   for  different  truck  sizes  in  2010 (vehicle  load:  50%) MJ  per  vehicle-­‐km Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions 6 …fuel consumption increases with vehicle size, but specific energy consumption (per ton-km) decreases Source: HBEFA 3.1 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 rigid  truck   >3.5-­‐12  tons rigid  truck   >12  tons trailer  truck   >20-­‐34  tons trailer  truck   >34-­‐40  tons Average  specific  fuel  consumption   for  different  truck  sizes  in  2010 (vehicle  load:  50%) MJ  per  ton-­‐km

36 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions 6 Specific energy consumption of freight transport with heavy-duty trucks reduced by 30% in the last 15 years Technology + Load factor + Larger vehicles + Biofuels 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Decomposition  of  fuel  consumption  and  GHG  emission   reductions  per  ton-­‐km  of  road  freight  transport  in  Germany fuel  consumption:  constant  truck  size  and  vehicle  load fuel  consumption:  constant  truck  size,  increasing  load  factor fuel  consumption:  increasing  truck  sizes  and  load  factors GHG  emissions  (WTW):  fuel  efficiency  gains  and  use  of  biofuels IFEU/TREMOD  2011

37 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Development of Emissions and Efficiency 7 Development of transport, emissions and fuel efficiency § Comparisons of past developments and future projections show the importance and the success of air pollutant emission regulations in Europe. They also demonstrate the limited success of efforts to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions from road-freight transport. § Transport performance and mileage of heavy-duty trucks increased strongly from 1960 to 2010. In the first decades, emissions of NOx and PM increased to a similar extent.

However, with the introduction of European emission standards, emissions could be strongly reduced. Compared to 1995, transport performance increased by 55% and mileage by 16%. In contrast, NOx emissions were reduced by 55% and PM emissions by 76%.

§ By 2030, further considerable increases of road freight transport performance (+189% compared to 1995) and mileage (+87%) are expected in current transport projections for Germany. In the same time frame, air pollutant emissions are expected to decrease by 93% (for NOx) and 98% (for PM). § The development of fuel consumption and GHG emissions cannot show similar success’ as air pollutants. From 1995 to 2010, fuel consumption (+13%) and GHG emissions (+10%) increased only slightly lower than mileage of heavy-duty trucks. Also for 2010 to 2030, no clear decoupling of fuel consumption and GHG emissions from transport development can be seen.

In case of the currently projected transport development, GHG emissions of road freight transport will continue to increase as the high transport increase overcompensates for future expected efficiency gains.

38 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Development of Emissions and Efficiency 7 Projections show further increase of transport performance and mileage of heavy-duty trucks in Germany 20 40 60 80 100 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 billion   veh.km Annual  mileages  of  heavy-­‐duty  trucks  in  Germany Euro  VI Euro  V Euro  IV Euro  III Euro  II Euro  I <  Euro  I 20 40 60 80 100 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1960-­‐2010 trend  scenario  2010-­‐2030 IFEU/TREMOD  2011 200 400 600 800 1'000 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 billion   ton-­‐ k m Transport  performance  of  heavy-­‐duty  trucks  in  Germany Euro  VI Euro  V Euro  IV Euro  III Euro  II Euro  I <  Euro  I 200 400 600 800 1'000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1960-­‐2010 trend  scenario  2010-­‐2030 IFEU/TREMOD  2011

39 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Development of Emissions and Efficiency 7 Despite of increasing goods transport NOx and PM emissions from heavy-duty trucks will decrease 100 200 300 400 500 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 thousand   tons Annual  NOx emissions  from  heavy-­‐duty  trucks  in  Germany 100 200 300 400 500 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Euro  VI Euro  V Euro  IV Euro  III Euro  II Euro  I <  Euro  I 1960-­‐2010 trend  scenario  2010-­‐2030 IFEU/TREMOD  2011 4 8 12 16 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 thousand   tons Annual  exhaust  PM  emissions  from  heavy-­‐duty  trucks  in  Germany 4 8 12 16 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Euro  VI Euro  V Euro  IV Euro  III Euro  II Euro  I <  Euro  I 1960-­‐2010 trend  scenario  2010-­‐2030 IFEU/TREMOD  2011

40 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Development of Emissions and Efficiency 7 ...but increase of fuel consumption and GHG since efficiency gains are overcompensated by high increase of transport 200 400 600 800 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Peta   J oule Annual  fuel  consumption  from  heavy-­‐duty  trucks  in  Germany Euro  VI Euro  V Euro  IV Euro  III Euro  II Euro  I <  Euro  I 200 400 600 800 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1960-­‐2010 trend  scenario  2010-­‐2030 IFEU/TREMOD  2011 10 20 30 40 50 60 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 million   tons  CO 2 equ.

Annual  GHG  emissions  from  heavy-­‐duty  trucks  in  Germany Euro  VI Euro  V Euro  IV Euro  III Euro  II Euro  I <  Euro  I 10 20 30 40 50 60 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1960-­‐2010 trend  scenario  2010-­‐2030 IFEU/TREMOD  2011

41 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH -­‐100% -­‐75% -­‐50% -­‐25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 225% 250% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030  Mileage  (veh.km)  Transport  performance  (ton-­‐km)  Fuel  consumption  GHG  emissions  NOx  emissions  PM  emissions past  development trend  scenario IFEU/TREMOD 2011 Relative  development  of  heavy-­‐duty  truck  transport  in  Germany   compared  with  related  emissions  and  fuel  consumption  from  1995  to  2030 Development of Emissions and Efficiency 7 Strong decoupling of air pollutant emissions from transport development.

For GHG emissions only lower effects expected +189% +87% +63% -93% +55% -98%

42 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Summary 8 Summary § High increase of truck transport led to increasing share on fuel consumption and GHG emissions – and significant contribution to NOx and PM emissions. § In the last 20 years, NOx and PM exhaust emissions from heavy-duty trucks improved significantly as a result of EU fuel quality and emission legislation § Usage patterns, vehicle size and load still have high impact on exhaust emissions per vehicle km and ton-km.

§ Specific fuel consumption of new trucks decreased significantly before 1990, however, nearly stagnation in the last 20 years.

§ Higher vehicle loads and shift to larger vehicles considerably reduced the specific fuel consumption and GHG emissions per transport volume. § For the future, projections show further increase of transport volumes and mileage of heavy-duty trucks in Germany. § Even so, NOx and PM emissions from heavy duty trucks will decrease. § However, fuel consumption and GHG emissions will continue to increase as the high transport increase overcompensates expected efficiency gains.

43 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Udo Lambrecht Scientific Director Head of Dep. Transport and Environment ifeu – Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Wilckensstr. 3 D-69120 Heidelberg Germany Fon: +49 (0) 6221 / 47 67 -35 Fax: +49 (0) 6221 / 47 67 -19 E-Mail: udo.lambrecht@ifeu.de www.ifeu.de Frank Dünnebeil Senior Researcher Dep. Transport and Environment ifeu – Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Wilckensstr. 3 D-69120 Heidelberg Germany Fon: +49 (0) 6221 / 47 67 -61 Fax: +49 (0) 6221 / 47 67 -19 E-Mail: frank.duennebeil@ifeu.de www.ifeu.de Dr.

Harald Diaz-Bone TRANSfer Project Director (AV) Transport and Climate Change Division 44 Water, Energy and Transport Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH P.O. Box 5180 D-65726 Eschborn Germany Fon: +49 (0) 6196 / 79 25 54 Fax: +49 (0) 6196 / 79 80 25 54 E-Mail: harald.diaz-bone@giz.de http://www.transferproject.org/

44 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH TREMOD A § TREMOD: TRansport Emission MODel  Developed by IFEU for and in close cooperation with the German Federal Environment Agency, Ministry of Transport, Association of Automobile Manufacturers and others (since 1993)  Official database for emission reporting of the German Government § Based on a range of European measurement programs:  Measurement of the driving patterns of vehicles • Cycles recorded in real world traffic (car following method) • Weighted by traffic volume for a specific traffic situation  Measurement at vehicles (emission behaviour) • Vehicles grouped to different layers with comparable emission characteristics (vehicle types and sizes/ EURO stages, etc.) • Engine maps/ Real world cycles • Weighting according to fleet composition  Harmonized with “Handbook of Emission Factors” (INFRAS Bern et al.)  ERMES Group: European Research Group on Mobile Emission Sources

45 24.01.12 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil Udo Lambrecht ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH Modelling all relevant factors: " driving behaviour, " mileage, " load factor, " differentiated emission factors,.. Estimation of " fuel consumption and " exhaust and evaporative emissions (CO2, CO, NOx, NMHC, CH4, benzene, SO2, particulates, N2O, NH3). " for all motorized passenger and goods vehicles. " for Germany year by year from 1950 to 2030 " for various scenarios. TREMOD A Emission Calculation for Passenger Cars in TREMOD Cold Start Factors First Registrations Lifetime Functions Age Distribution Vehicle Stock Emissions Standards per 1st Reg.

Year Layers of Vehicle Stock Stack and Mileage Share per Road Category + Layer Mileage Behaviour per Layer Total Mileage Mileage Share per Road Category Mileage per Road Category Share of Traffic Situations/Gradient Mileage per Traffic Situation/Gradient BEFA per Layer + Driving Pattern Gradient-/Mileage -Correction warm EFA per Layer+Driving Pattern Traffic Situation Definition warm EFA per Layer+TrafficSit./ Gradient Ambient Tempe- rature, Trip length, Standing Time Stopp Factors Tank Breathing Factors Cold Start Emissions per Start and Layer Stopp Emissions per Stopp and Layer Tank Breathing Emissions per Vehicle + Day Number of Starts and Stopps Vehicle Stock Stock, Mileage, Energy Consumption, Emissions per Road Category and Layer BEFA: Basic Emission Factor EFA: Emission Factor IFEU Heidelberg