Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview

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Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview
ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

© U. Steinbrich, pixelio.de

                              Fuel efficiency and emissions
                                  of trucks in Germany
                                       An overview
Authors:                                                              Commissioned by
Frank Dünnebeil & Udo Lambrecht
IFEU-Institute Heidelberg
                                           Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                               24.01.12                1
                                                    Udo Lambrecht
Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview
ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

1   Background and Scope
2   Road Transport in Germany
3   Emission Regulation Heavy Duty Vehicles in Europe
4   Development of Fuel Quality – Europe/Germany
5   Emissions from heavy-duty trucks – Measurements and Modelling
6   Fuel efficiency and GHG emissions from heavy-duty trucks
7   Development of Transport, Emissions and Fuel Efficiency
8   Summary

                             Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                 24.01.12                2
                                      Udo Lambrecht
Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview
1   Background and Scope                ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                               Background & Scope
§ The large increase of road freight transport in recent decades has made heavy-duty
   trucks a major source of greenhouse gas emissions as well as NOx and PM air pollutant
   emissions. As a consequence, air pollution emission standards have been tightened
   constantly during recent years, esp. in the European Union and the USA. Furthermore,
   efforts are made to optimize fuel efficiency of heavy-duty engines and vehicles.
§ IFEU was commissioned by GIZ to carry out an analysis and discussion of the road freight
   transport situation with heavy-duty trucks in Germany. This was done while considering
   transport developments and related emissions and energy consumption.
§ The objective of this analysis is to illustrate the efforts made in Germany and Europe to
   reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from road freight transport, to
   highlight German experiences and to outline conditions for successful reductions of air
   pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from increasing road freight transport.
§ The study focuses on long-haul trailer trucks with a maximum vehicle weight of 40
   metric tons as the by far most important size class in road-freight transport in Germany.

                                          Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                              24.01.12                3
                                                   Udo Lambrecht
Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview
1   Background and Scope         ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

     Background
     § Goods transport increasing worldwide
     § Heavy Duty Vehicles (HDV) with relevant contribution
        to air pollutants and greenhouse gases
     § Fuel quality and emissions standards help to reduce
        environmental impacts

     Scope
     § Lessons from experiences with increasing goods
        transports in Germany
     § Describe the situation of heavy-duty trucks in Germany
        considering transport and emissions
     § Give an outlook of the future

                                  Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                      24.01.12                4
                                           Udo Lambrecht
Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview
2    Road Transport in Germany               ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                              Road transport in Germany I
§ Road transport has been greatly increasing in recent decades. In Germany road transport
   mileages today are more than 5 times higher compared to 1960. Concurrently, energy
   consumption and related (GHG) emissions have increased significantly.
     § The highest contribution to energy consumption in road transport comes from passenger cars
        (68% in 2010). In recent years though their energy consumption declined slightly despite
        ongoing mileage increases due to considerable efficiency gains.
     § In contrast, heavy-duty trucks contributed about 23% to energy consumption while having
        only 8% mileage share and their energy consumption is still on the rise. Hence road freight
        transport by heavy-duty trucks carries an increasing importance for fuel consumption and
        GHG emissions from road transport.
§ Air pollutant emissions also increased strongly with increasing road mileages over several
   years. However, the implementation and continuous tightening of emission regulations
   for all road vehicles have led to a strong decrease of important pollutants during the last
   20 years, despite ongoing transport growth.
     § Especially the introduction of three-way catalytic converters has led to high reductions of
        NOx emissions from gasoline-fuelled light-duty vehicles.
     § Diesel-fuelled heavy-duty trucks have high NOx and diesel particle emissions. In the past,
        they contributed up to 46% to NOx emissions and 61% to particle emissions from road
        transport in Germany. Since the mid-nineties, their emissions were strongly reduced as a
        result of European emission legislation. Despite that they still contributed 39% to NOx and
        23% to exhaust particle emissions in 2010.
                                               Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                   24.01.12                5
                                                        Udo Lambrecht
Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview
2   Road Transport in Germany           ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                            Road transport in Germany II
§ In the last 15 years, transport performance (transport volumes x transport distances)
   with heavy-duty trucks (>3.5 – 40 metric tons gross vehicle weight) increased by 55%.
§ This increase was mainly caused by increasing transport performances of long-haul
   trailer trucks with a maximum vehicle weight (empty truck + load) up to 40 tons. With a
   share of 88% on transport performance in 2010, they are the dominating size class in
   Germany.
§ As the increasing freight volumes were mostly transported by 40-ton trucks, which have
   considerably higher payloads than smaller heavy-duty trucks, total road mileages of
   heavy-duty trucks increased by only 16% from 1995 to 2010.
§ In 2010 40-ton trucks had a 63% mileage share and, thus, where the dominating size
   class in road transport.

                                          Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                              24.01.12                6
                                                   Udo Lambrecht
Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview
2                           Road Transport in Germany                                 ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                                                    High increase of truck transport leads to increasing
                                                    energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions…
                                                            Annual mileage of road                                                                               GHG emissions from road
                                                             transport in Germany                                                                                  transport in Germany
                                                  900                                                                                                     300   (well-to-wheel, inland values)
                                                            others                                                                                                  others
                                                  800       heavy-­‐duty	
  trucks                                                                                  heavy-­‐duty	
  trucks
                                                            light	
  goods	
  vehicles                                                                              light	
  goods	
  vehicles
billion	
  vehicle	
  kilometres	
  per	
  year

                                                                                                                                                          250
                                                  700       buses                                                                                                   buses

                                                                                                                     million	
  tons	
  CO2 equivalents
                                                            cars                                                                                                    cars
                                                  600       two-­‐wheelers                                                                                200       two-­‐wheelers

                                                  500
                                                                                                                                                          150
                                                  400

                                                  300                                                                                                     100

                                                  200
                                                                                                                                                           50
                                                  100
                                                                                         IFEU/TREMOD 2011                                                                                        IFEU/TREMOD 2011
                                                    0                                                                                                       0
                                                     1960     1970      1980      1990        2000     2010                                                  1960     1970      1980      1990        2000     2010
                                                                                                             Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                                                              24.01.12                  7
                                                                                                                      Udo Lambrecht
Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview
2                 Road Transport in Germany                                ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                           …contribution from heavy-duty trucks on NOx and PM
                              emissions from road transport on a high level
                                NOx emissions from road                                                                     Exhaust particle emissions
                                 transport in Germany                                                                    from road transport in Germany
                      1'300                                                                                             50
                                                                                                                                 others
                      1'200                                                                                             45       heavy-­‐duty	
   trucks
                      1'100                                                                                                      light	
   goods	
  vehicles
                                                                                                                        40

                                                                                               thousand	
  tons	
  PM
                      1'000                                                                                                      buses
                        900                                                                                             35       cars
thousand	
  tons	
  NOx

                        800                                                                                             30
                        700
                                                                                                                        25
                        600
                        500                                                                                             20
                        400           others                                                                            15
                                      heavy-­‐duty	
  trucks
                        300           light	
   goods	
   vehicles                                                      10
                        200           buses
                        100           cars                                                                               5
                                      two-­‐wheelers                 IFEU/TREMOD 2011                                                                          IFEU/TREMOD 2011
                          0                                                                                              0
                           1960      1970      1980         1990        2000      2010                                    1960     1970       1980       1990      2000     2010
                                                                                    Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                            24.01.12                 8
                                                                                             Udo Lambrecht
Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview
2                Road Transport in Germany                                                ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

            Trailer Trucks > 34 tons gross vehicle weight (mostly 40 t)
             have a high and increasing share on ton-km and mileage
                            Transport	
  performance	
  of	
  heavy-­‐duty	
  trucks	
  in	
  Germany                                  ton-­‐km	
  share	
  2010
                      500
                                                                                 +55%                                                               3%
                      400
                                                                                                                                                      5% 4%
billion	
  ton-­‐km

                      300
                                             trailer	
  truck	
  	
  	
  >34-­‐40tons
                      200                    trailer	
  truck	
  	
  	
  12tons
                      100                    rigid	
  truck	
  	
  	
  34-­‐40tons
                      30              trailer	
  truck	
  	
  	
  12tons                                                                 63%
                      20
                                      rigid	
  truck	
  	
  	
  
Fuel efficiency and emissions of trucks in Germany An overview
2    Road Transport in Germany                                ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

How can specific emissions and fuel consumption of road-
  freight-transport with heavy-duty trucks be reduced?
     Exhaust emission treatment and energy-saving technologies

                                                         source: Emitec
                                                                                         © E. Kaliwoda, pixelio.de

     Increase of vehicle load factors
                                    source: EcotransIT                                                               source: EcotransIT
                  empty

     Larger vehicles with higher payloads

        © M. Hirschka, pixelio.de                            © T. Siepmann, pixelio.de

                                                                Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                               24.01.12                   10
                                                                         Udo Lambrecht
3    Emission Regulation in Europe              ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                             Emission regulation in Europe
§ Harmonized exhaust emission regulation for heavy-duty vehicles in European Union started
   with Euro I (valid from 1992 for new engine types and 1993 for all new sales). The so far most
   ambitious emission standard Euro VI will become mandatory in 2013/2014. From Euro I to
   Euro VI, emission limit values for NOx were reduced by 95% and by 97% for diesel particles.
§ In addition, the test cycles for type approval procedures have been refined.
   § Up to the Euro II emission standard, a 13-mode steady-state diesel engine test cycle intro-duced
        by ECE Regulation No.49 (1988) and then adopted by the EEC [EEC Directive 88/77] had been used
        for type approval emission testing of heavy-duty highway engines.
     § Since the Euro III stage (2000), the ECE R-49 has been replaced by the European Stationary Cycle
        (ESC), a 13-mode, steady-state procedure, plus the European Transient Cycle (ETC), based on real
        road cycle measurements of heavy duty vehicles (source: www.dieselnet.com).
     § With Euro VI, newly developed world harmonized stationary and transient test cycles (WHSC,
        WHTC) become mandatory.
§ European emission standards up to Euro III were achieved with internal engine
   optimization measures. With Euro IV and V, two different exhaust after treatment systems
   are applied to meet the NOx and PM emission limits:
     § Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) + diesel particulate filter (DPF).
     § Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) without DPF
     § Both technologies require the use of diesel fuel with low sulphur content.
§ With the coming Euro VI emission standard which demands further strong reductions of
   NOx and PM emissions, the application of SCR systems and DPF is expected.
                                                  Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                      24.01.12               11
                                                           Udo Lambrecht
3              Emission Regulation in Europe                                 ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                        Exhaust gas emission legislation since 1992/93:
                           High reduction of NOx and PM emissions
                                 EU	
  eemission	
  
                                EU	
      mission	
   limit	
  values	
  
                                                     standards	
   for	
  fhor	
   heavy-­‐duty	
  
                                                                            eavy-­‐duty	
          vehicles
                                                                                            vehicles	
  
                     0.40
                     0.35                                                                                                                Euro	
  I	
  
                                                                                                                                         90/91	
  
                     0.30
PM	
  in	
  g /kWh

                     0.25
                     0.20
                     0.15                                                                                               Euro	
  II	
  
                                                                                                                        95/96	
  
                     0.10                                                                    Euro	
  III	
  
                                                                                              00/01	
  
                     0.05   Euro	
  VI	
  (13/14)	
  
                                      Euro	
  V(08/09)	
   Euro	
  IV	
  (05/06)	
  
                     0.00
                            0             1               2               3          4          5                 6                 7               8    9
                                                                                   NOx in	
  g /kWh
                                                                               Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                   24.01.12                     12
                                                                                        Udo Lambrecht
3          Emission Regulation in Europe                                 ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                                  Exhaust gas emission legislation since 1992/93:
                                     High reduction of NOx and PM emissions
                              NOx emission	
  standards	
  for	
                                                     Particle	
  emission	
  standards	
  for	
  
                               heavy-­‐duty	
  vehicles	
  in	
  EU                                                    heavy-­‐duty	
  vehicles	
  in	
  EU
           10                                                                                                     0.40
                                                    -­‐95%                                                                                            -­‐97%
                     9                                                                                            0.35
                     8
                                                                                                                  0.30
                     7
NOx	
  in	
  g/kWh

                                                                                              PM	
  in	
  g/kWh
                     6                                                                                            0.25

                     5                                                                                            0.20
                     4                                                                                            0.15
                     3
                                                                                                                  0.10
                     2
                     1                                                                                            0.05

                     0                                                                                            0.00
                           Euro	
  I Euro	
  II Euro	
  III Euro	
  IV Euro	
  V Euro	
  VI                               Euro	
  I Euro	
  II Euro	
  III Euro	
  IV Euro	
  V Euro	
  VI
                          (90/91) (95/96) (00/01) (05/06) (08/09) (13/14)                                                (90/91) (95/96) (00/01) (05/06) (08/09) (13/14)

                                                                                        Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                           24.01.12                    13
                                                                                                 Udo Lambrecht
3     Emission Regulation in Europe                         ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                Test Cycles for type approval have been refined
                    from stationary tests to transient cycles

        Euro	
  0-­‐II	
                      Euro	
  III-­‐V	
                                               Euro	
  VI	
  
              ECE	
  R49	
                             ESC	
                                                      WHSC	
  

                                                                                                                  WHTC	
  
                                                         ETC	
  

    Source:	
  dieselnet.com	
        Source:	
  dieselnet.com	
                              Source:	
  Emitec	
  
                                                              Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                  24.01.12                   14
                                                                       Udo Lambrecht
3                        Emission Regulation in Europe                                                                              ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

  Aftertreatment: From exhaust silencer to chemical plant….

                                                                                                                                                                                                                  from	
  2 009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                EGR	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 EGR	
  ++	
  	
  SSCR	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CR	
  ++	
  	
  aactive	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ctive	
  pparticle	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 article	
  ffilter	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ilter	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                (for	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 (for	
  EEuro	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           uro	
  VVI,	
  I,	
  EEPA10	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  PA10	
  aand	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                nd	
  JJ09)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        09)
       exhaust	
  g as	
  aftertreatment	
  s ystems

                                                                                                                                                                                                        2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                       EGR	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                        EGR	
  ++	
  	
  aactive	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ctive	
  pparticle	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      article	
  ffilter	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    ilter	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                       (for	
   E PA07)
                                                                                                                                                                                                        (for	
  EPA07)
                                                                                                                                                                                                       SCRT
                                                                                                                                                                                                        SCRT
                                                                                                                                                                                                       (for	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                        (for	
  EEEV)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  EV)

                                                                                                                                                                                                 2005
                                                                                                                                                                                               SCR
                                                                                                                                                                                                SCR
                                                                                                                                                                                               (for	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                (for	
  EEuro	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                          uro	
  IIV+V,	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   V+V,	
  JJP05)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             P05)
                                                                                                                                                                                               EGR	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                EGR	
  ++	
  	
  aactive	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ctive	
  pparticle	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              article	
  ffilter	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ilter	
  
                                                                                                                                      1995                                                     (for	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                                (for	
  JJP05)
                                                                                                                                                                                                          P05)
                                                                                                                                     CRT
                                                                                                                                     CRT                                                 2004
                                                                                                                                     Passive	
  
                                                                                                                                     Passive	
  pparticle	
  
                                                                                                                                                      article	
  ffilter,	
  
                                                                                                                                                                    ilter,	
  
                                                                                                                                     Euro	
                                             EGR
                                                                                                                                                                                         EGR
                                                                                                                                     Euro	
  22+3	
  
                                                                                                                                               +3	
  ((sporadic	
  
                                                                                                                                                       sporadic	
  
                                                                                                  1984                               application)
                                                                                                                                     application)                                       (for	
  
                                                                                                                                                                                         (for	
  EEPA04)
                                                                                                                                                                                                   PA04)
                                                                                                  Soot	
  
                                                                                                   Soot	
  ffilter
                                                                                                              ilter
                                                                                                  Active	
  
                                                                                                   Active	
  pparticle	
  
                                                                                                                article	
  ffilter	
  
                                                                                                                              ilter	
  
                                                                                                  (sporadic	
  
                                                                                                   (sporadic	
  aapplication)
                                                                                                                    pplication)
    engine-­‐

                                                       natural	
  aspirated	
  engines
     types

                                                                                                               es                                           turbocharged	
  inter-­‐c ooled	
  engines
                                                                                        ar g ed   	
  eng in
                                                                            tu   rboc h
                                                             1975                             1985                                                      1995                                     2005                                                              2015
                             1970                                          1980                                         1990                                                     2000                                         2010

Source: Holloh Daimler, 2008

                                                                                                                                          Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  24.01.12                                                     15
                                                                                                                                                   Udo Lambrecht
3    Emission Regulation in Europe         ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                EGR, Particle Filters and SCR are
      advanced technologies for reducing exhaust emissions
                       EGR+DPF	
                                                SCR	
  

Source:	
  CLAAS	
  POWER	
  SYSTEMS	
  

 Euro IV/V: two alternative exhaust aftertreatment systems.
• Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) + diesel particulate filter (DPF).
• Selective catalytic reduction (SCR), no DPF
Euro VI: DPF and SCR expected
                                            Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                24.01.12               16
                                                     Udo Lambrecht
3   Emission Regulation in Europe            ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

       EGR more simple – SCR additional efficiency benefits
                                  EGR                                                 SCR
Pros       - No additional equipment (extra tank)        - Simplicity of the system and possibilities for
           - No loss of payload and fuel capacity          subsequent development (future standards)

           - No handling changes for haulier and         - No impact on maintenance and oil change
             drivers                                       intervals
                                                         - Engine optimization can be focused on fuel
                                                           efficiency
Contras - Decreases power density, fuel                  - Additional urea tank reduces vehicle’s
             efficiency                                    payload and can lead to complications
           - Potential engine durability and oil           with bodywork assembly
             degradation issues (= shortened oil         - Urea supply infrastructure needed
             change intervals)                        - Urea has a tendency to harden at low
           - Engines are larger and possibly heavier,   temperatures (- 11°C)
             depending on power rating                - Least effective in situations with low
           - Increases heat rejection, creating need        exhaust temperature (e.g. urban
             for greater cooling capacity                   operations, stop+go)
                                                         - Limited additional efforts for the driver

Sources: Vialtis 2005, FleetOwner 2008
                                              Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                  24.01.12               17
                                                       Udo Lambrecht
4    Fuel Quality in Europe                   ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                                  Fuel quality in Europe
§ One important condition for the introduction of emission-reducing after treatment
   technologies with Euro IV and V was the regulation of diesel fuel quality – primary the
   reduction of the sulphur content.
§ In the European Union, standards for fuel quality were first developed by the European
   Standards Organization (CEN) and adopted by European legislation. The first fuel standard
   for the sulphur content of diesel fuels was defined with council directive 93/12/EEC,
   setting limits of 2,000 ppm (from 1994) and 500 ppm (from 1996). These standards have
   been tightened with EU directives 98/70/EC and 2003/17/EC up to “sulphur-free” diesel
   with a maximum sulphur content of 10 ppm, obligatory as of 2009.
§ Developments of fuel quality in Europe reflect the success of these fuel quality
   regulations. Sulphur content in diesel fuels was considerably reduced in recent years.
     § In Germany, diesel fuels were “sulphur-free” by 2003.
     § In the European Union, about half of all 27 EU countries had “sulphur-free” diesel in 2008. All
        other EU countries had average sulphur contents in diesel fuels of no more than 30 ppm.

                                                 Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                    24.01.12               18
                                                          Udo Lambrecht
4                                    Fuel Quality in Europe                         ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                  EU regulation on sulphur content in diesel fuels – important
                  condition for environmentally friendly vehicle technologies
                                                                        EU	
  regulaOon	
  on	
  sulphur	
  content	
  in	
  diesel	
  fuels	
  
                                                         2'000
                                                         1'800
legal	
  sulphur	
  content	
  in	
  fuel	
  in	
  ppm

                                                         1'600
                                                         1'400
                                                         1'200
                                                                                   2000	
  ppm    500	
  ppm             350	
  ppm         50	
  ppm          10	
  ppm
                                                         1'000
                                                                                   (93/12/EEC)    (93/12/EEC)            (98/70/EC)         (98/70/EC)         (2003/17/EC)
                                                          800
                                                          600
                                                          400
                                                          200
                                                             0
                                                                 1994       1996      1998       2000        2002         2004        2006         2008        2010        ...

                                                                                                         Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                             24.01.12               19
                                                                                                                  Udo Lambrecht
4                               Fuel Quality in Europe                             ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                                                   Diesel fuel in Germany is “sulphur-free” since 2003...

                                                                            Sulphur	
  content	
  of	
  diesel	
  fuels	
  in	
  Germany	
  
                                                2'000
                                                1'800
sulphur	
  content	
  in	
  fuel	
  in	
  ppm

                                                1'600
                                                1'400
                                                1'200
                                                1'000
                                                   800
                                                   600
                                                   400
                                                   200
                                                      0
                                                           1990          1992        1994   1996   1998       2000       2002       2004       2006       2008          2010
                                                Source:	
  IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011	
  
                                                                                                      Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                          24.01.12               20
                                                                                                               Udo Lambrecht
4                    Fuel Quality in Europe                                                                 ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                                                ... and Europe is on the way to “sulphur-free” diesel fuel
                                                                 NaOonal	
  sales	
  of	
  low	
  sulphur	
  diesel	
  grades	
  across	
  the	
  EU	
  (%)	
  in	
  2001	
  &	
  2008	
  
                                                                             2001	
  	
  (EU	
  15)                                                                                                            2008	
  	
  (EU	
  27)
100%                                                                                                                                                               100%

80%                                                                                                                                                                  80%

60%                                                                                                                                                                  60%
                                                                                                                                                                                     Diesel	
  (
5    Emissions: Measurements and Modelling    ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                        Emissions from heavy-duty trucks I
§ As a result of exhaust emission and fuel quality regulations in Europe, specific NOx and
   PM emissions of trucks have improved in the last years. New heavy-duty trucks (Euro V,
   Euro VI) emit only a fraction of the emissions caused by older trucks.
§ Although the development of real emissions from new trucks is quite similar to the
   decrease of limit values, new emission standards did not always bring the expected
   emission improvements. E.g. from Euro I to Euro II, real world NOx emissions of heavy-
   duty trucks increased slightly instead of expected reductions. This underlies the
   importance of resilient, real-world suitable test cycles.
   Further information can be found in Dieselnet 2003: “German UBA finds increased NOx
   emissions in Euro 2 trucks” http://www.dieselnet.com/news/2003/02uba.php).
§ Emission measurements on heavy-duty trucks show a high impact of usage patterns on
   real-world emissions.
     § Vehicle use under unsteady, dynamic conditions with low speeds, e.g. in urban areas, leads
        to higher emissions than motorway travel at higher and mostly constant speeds.
     § This is of special concern for SCR systems that are least effective in situations with low
        exhaust temperature. Specific NOx emissions of 40-ton trucks in urban operations can be
        more than three times higher than on motorways.
     § Hence, for reducing truck-related air pollution in cities, defining additional requirements for
        inner-urban emission reductions could be helpful.
                                                Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                    24.01.12               22
                                                         Udo Lambrecht
5    Emissions: Measurements and Modelling   ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                       Emissions from heavy-duty trucks II
§ Furthermore, the utilization of vehicle’s payload affects specific emissions. Higher load
   factors usually increase emissions per vehicle-km due to increased pollutant levels in the
   engine exhaust.
     § Certainly, for NOx from SCR-equipped trucks this correlation is not that clear. On one hand,
        engine-out emissions increase with the higher engine loads. On the other hand, however,
        the effectiveness of the downstream SCR system increases as well due to higher exhaust
        temperatures.
     In the end, real emissions related to the transported goods (ton-km), decrease for all
     emission standards with increasing load factors.
§ The enhanced use of large 40-ton trailer trucks and their increasing share of road freight
   transport has also supported the reduction of air pollutant emissions per transported
   good (ton-km) in Germany. Trailer trucks with a maximum vehicle weight of 40 tons and
   about 26 tons of payload have considerably lower emissions per ton-km than smaller
   trucks with less payload.

                                               Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                   24.01.12               23
                                                        Udo Lambrecht
5     Emissions: Measurements and Modelling                       ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

      NOx and PM real world emissions improved significantly

       Average	
  NOx emission	
  factors	
                                           Average	
  PM	
  emission	
  factors	
  
         of	
  40-­‐ton	
  trucks	
  in	
  g /km                                        of	
  40-­‐ton	
  trucks	
  in	
  g /km
14                                                                            0.4
                                                      IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011                                                             IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
12                                                                            0.4

10                                                                            0.3
                                                                              0.3
8
                                                                              0.2
6
                                                                              0.2
4
                                                                              0.1
2                                                                             0.1
0                                                                             0.0
                                        EGR SCR EGR SCR                                                                 EGR SCR EGR SCR
                                        +DPF    +DPF                                                                    +DPF    +DPF
     <	
  Euro Euro Euro	
   Euro	
      Euro	
  IV    Euro	
  V   Euro	
            <	
  Euro Euro Euro	
   Euro	
      Euro	
  IV     Euro	
  V   Euro	
  
           I     I   II       III                                   VI                     I     I   II       III                                    VI

                                                                     Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                            24.01.12                  24
                                                                              Udo Lambrecht
5    Emissions: Measurements and Modelling             ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

     NOx and PM real world emissions improved significantly
   - though decreasing more slowly than emission legislation
             NOx real	
  emissions	
                                               PM	
  real	
  emissions	
  
           compared	
  to	
  standards                                           compared	
  to	
  standards
120%                                                               100%
                                           IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011                                                       IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
                                                                    90%
100%
                               average	
  emission	
  factors       80%
                                                                    70%                                  average	
  emission	
  factors
80%                            limit	
  values
                                                                    60%                                  limit	
  values
60%                                                                 50%
                                                                    40%
40%
                                                                    30%
20%                                                                 20%
                                                                    10%
 0%                                                                  0%
                         EGR SCR EGR SCR                                                          EGR SCR EGR SCR
                         +DPF    +DPF                                                             +DPF    +DPF
        Euro Euro Euro     Euro	
  IV      Euro	
  V    Euro                 Euro Euro Euro          Euro	
  IV       Euro	
  V   Euro
          I   II   III                                   VI                    I   II   III                                        VI

                                                           Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                              24.01.12                 25
                                                                    Udo Lambrecht
5    Emissions: Measurements and Modelling                   ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                    Usage patterns have high impact on emissions
               NOx real	
  emissions	
  in	
  g/km                                      PM	
  real	
  emissions	
  in	
  g/km
                     (40-­‐ton	
  truck)                                                        (40-­‐ton	
  truck)
18                                                                          0.6
             motorway        extra-­‐urban         urban      average                  motorway        extra-­‐urban           urban     average
16
                                                                            0.5                                                   IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
14
                                                     IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
12                                                                          0.4

10
                                                                            0.3
8

6                                                                           0.2

4
                                                                            0.1
2

0                                                                           0.0
                                     EGR SCR EGR SCR                                                           EGR SCR EGR SCR
                                     +DPF    +DPF                                                              +DPF    +DPF
         <	
   Euro Euro Euro Euro    Euro	
  IV      Euro	
  V   Euro             <	
   Euro Euro Euro Euro      Euro	
  IV      Euro	
  V   Euro
                I     I   II   III                                 VI                     I     I   II   III                                   VI

                                                                    Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                       24.01.12                   26
                                                                             Udo Lambrecht
5     Emissions: Measurements and Modelling                 ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                                      NOx and PM real-world emissions
                                        depend strongly from load
           NOx emission	
  factors	
  of	
  40-­‐ton	
  trucks	
                     PM	
  emission	
  factors	
  of	
  40-­‐ton	
  trucks	
  
            with	
  different	
  vehicle	
  load	
  factors	
                         with	
  different	
  vehicle	
  load	
  factors	
  
18                                                                           0.6
           in	
  g	
  per	
  veh.km                                                  in	
  g	
  per	
  veh.km
16
                                                        0%	
  load           0.5
14                                                                                                                                           0%	
  load
                                                        50%	
  load
12                                                                           0.4                                                             50%	
  load
                                                        100%	
  load
                                                                                                                                             100%	
  load
10
                                                                             0.3
8
6                                                                            0.2
4
                                                                             0.1
2
0                                                                            0.0
                                      EGR SCR EGR SCR                                                                  EGR SCR EGR SCR
                                      +DPF    +DPF                                                                     +DPF    +DPF
           < Euro Euro Euro            Euro	
  IV    Euro	
  V   Euro                 < Euro Euro Euro                     Euro	
  IV   Euro	
  V    Euro
         Euro	
  I I II III                                       VI                Euro	
  I I II III                                                VI

         Source: HBEFA 3.1
                                                                     Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                24.01.12                27
                                                                              Udo Lambrecht
5     Emissions: Measurements and Modelling                               ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                                           NOx and PM emissions per ton-km
                                          decrease strongly with vehicle size
            Average	
  specific	
  NOx emissions	
  in	
  2010	
                                   Average	
  specific	
  PM	
  emissions	
  in	
  2010	
  
              for	
  different	
  truck	
  sizes	
  per	
  ton-­‐km                                 for	
  different	
  truck	
  sizes	
  per	
  ton-­‐km
                          (vehicle	
  load:	
  50%)                                                             (vehicle	
  load:	
  50%)
2.0                                                                                       0.04
           in	
  g	
  per	
  ton-­‐km                                                              in	
  g	
  per	
  ton-­‐km
1.8
                                                                                          0.03
1.6
1.4                                                                                       0.03

1.2
                                                                                          0.02
1.0
0.8                                                                                       0.02

0.6                                                                                       0.01
0.4
                                                                                          0.01
0.2
0.0                                                                                       0.00
           rigid	
  truck        rigid	
  truck   trailer	
  t ruck trailer	
  t ruck               rigid	
  truck       rigid	
  truck   trailer	
  t ruck trailer	
  t ruck
          >3.5-­‐12	
  tons       >12	
  t ons    >20-­‐34	
  tons >34-­‐40	
  tons                >3.5-­‐12	
  tons      >12	
  t ons    >20-­‐34	
  tons >34-­‐40	
  tons
          Source: HBEFA 3.1
                                                                                  Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                           24.01.12                   28
                                                                                           Udo Lambrecht
6    Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions       ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

Fuel efficiency and GHG emissions from heavy-duty trucks I
§ Long-term test reports for new, fully laden long-haul trucks with a total vehicle weight
   of 38-40 tons show significant reductions of specific fuel consumption since the mid
   1960’s. However, during the last 20 years, fuel consumption of new trucks has nearly
   stagnated. A new 40-ton truck Euro V has about the same fuel efficiency as a Euro I
   truck. GHG emissions are directly related to the fuel efficiency, so specific GHG
   emissions per vehicle-km were not reduced.
§ This absence of further efficiency improvements of new heavy-duty trucks is strongly
   related to the introduction and tightening of European air pollution emission standards.
   Up to Euro III, these were generally achieved with internal engine optimizations,
   hampering fuel efficiency optimization. Also the EGR+DPF for Euro IV/V causes
   additional fuel penalties, compensating other, fuel-saving effects. Only, the use of SCR
   systems allows for engine optimization to focus more on fuel efficiency.
§ Similar to air pollutant emissions, fuel efficiency and GHG emissions per transported
   good (ton-km) improve with higher vehicle load factors. Increasing the load factor of a
   Euro V 40-ton trailer truck from 50% to 67% leads to an increase of fuel consumption per
   vehicle km by 8%. However, per transport-km, specific fuel consumption and GHG
   emissions decrease by 20%.
     § It should be noted that the vehicle load does not only depend on logistical optimizations of
        the transport chain and avoidance of empty trips, but also on the kind of good. Heavy goods
        such as coal or liquids lead typically to a higher utilization of the vehicle’s capacity than
        light volume goods such as furniture, clothes etc.
                                               Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                   24.01.12               29
                                                        Udo Lambrecht
6     Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions    ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

     Fuel efficiency and GHG emissions from heavy-duty trucks
§   40-ton trailer trucks need on average moreIIthan twice the fuel per vehicle-km than
     small heavy-duty trucks with a gross vehicle weight less than 12 tons. However, a 40-ton
     truck has a several times higher payload (about 24-26 tons vs. 3-5 tons). Thus, per
     transported ton, a large trailer truck is about 3 times more energy-efficient than a small
     heavy-duty truck. Therefore, meeting the increasing transport demand using primarily
     large 40-ton trailer trucks, has supported the improvement of fuel efficiency per
     transported good (ton-km) in Germany.
§ The relevance of different effects for the total fuel efficiency gains of road freight
   transport in Germany is reflected by decomposing the individual improvements:
§ In the last 15 years, technological efficiency gains yielded only improvements of fuel
   efficiency by about 6%. Combined with increasing vehicle loads, the efficiency gain was 20%.
§ The shift to larger vehicle sizes, esp. the increased share of large 40-ton trailer trucks
   yielded additional efficiency gains. Thus, specific fuel consumption per transported ton
   with heavy-duty trucks in Germany was reduced from 1995 to 2010 in total by 27%.
§ Specific GHG emissions decreased by 29%, hence, slightly more than fuel consumption This
   can be attributed to the usage of biofuels in Germany and additional reduction of specific
   GHG emissions.

                                             Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                 24.01.12               30
                                                      Udo Lambrecht
6   Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions                      ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

       Significant reduction of fuel consumption since 1965
          higher payload and technological improvements

    Source: Manfred Schuckert, Daimler AG, presented by Daimler on EC/ICCT-Workshop , November 2011

                                                            Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                24.01.12               31
                                                                     Udo Lambrecht
6   Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions                      ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

            …fuel consumption per ton km almost halved by
              technology improvements and higher loads

    Source: Manfred Schuckert, Daimler AG, presented by Daimler on EC/ICCT-Workshop , November 2011

                                                            Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                24.01.12               32
                                                                     Udo Lambrecht
6    Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions                ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

           Significant reduction of specific fuel consumption
            before 1990; nearly stagnation the last 20 years
    Fuel	
  consumpOon	
  of	
  long-­‐haul	
  trucks	
  (GVW	
  38/40	
  tons)	
  in	
  long-­‐term	
  test	
  reports	
  

                                                                                         Natural	
  aspired	
  engines	
  
                                                                                         Turbo	
  charged	
  engines	
  
                                                                                         Intercooled	
  charged	
  air	
  

                                                           1986
                                                       changed route

Source: ACEA 2011 Commercial vehicles and CO2

                                                       Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                           24.01.12                          33
                                                                Udo Lambrecht
6                                         Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions                                                        ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                     Higher loads lower strongly the specific fuel consumption
                                                                    Energy	
  consumpOon	
  of	
  heavy	
  duty	
  trucks	
  depending	
  on	
  vehicle	
  load	
  
                                                                              (40	
  tons	
  gross	
  vehicle	
  weight,	
  Euro	
  V,	
  motorway,	
  hilly)	
  
                                                                    1'600                                                                                                                                                                           40
                                                                                      	
  g	
  CO2	
  /	
  ton-­‐km                 	
  L .	
  diesel	
  /	
  100	
  veh.km
Specific	
  CO 2 emissions	
  in	
  grams	
  per	
   ton-­‐km	
  

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Specific	
   Fuel	
  Consumption	
   (Liter	
   /	
  100	
  veh.km)
                                                                    1'400                                                                                                                                                                           35
                                                                                                                                                                                        33	
  l/100km
     (exhaust	
   CO2,	
  100%	
  fossile	
  diesel

                                                                    1'200                                                                                                                                                                           30
                                                                                                                                                               30	
  l/100km
                                                                                                                 27	
  l/100km
                                                                    1'000                                                                                                                                                                           25

                                                                     800                                                                                                                                                                            20
                                                                                                      typcial	
  load	
                              average	
  load	
         typical	
  load	
  
                                                                                                     volume	
  goods                                   all	
  goods            bulk	
  goods
                                                                     600                                       e.g.	
  i ndustrial	
  parts,	
                                          e.g.	
  	
  coal,	
  ore,	
  oil,	
                         15
                                                                                                               consumer	
  goods	
  such	
  as	
                                        fertilizer	
  e tc.
                                                                                                               furniture,	
  clothes	
  e tc.
                                                                     400                                                                                                                                                                            10

                                                                     200                                       101	
  g/tkm
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    5
                                                                                                                                                              61	
  g/tkm              49	
  g/tkm
                                                                       0                                                                                                                                                                            0
                                                                            0    2        4            6              8            10     12           14    16                        18                    20                 22   24        26
                                                                                                                                   vehicle	
  load	
  (tons)
                                                                      Source: HBEFA 3.1, EcoTransIT (www.EcoTransIT.org)

                                                                                                                                          Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                                                                                         24.01.12                         34
                                                                                                                                                   Udo Lambrecht
6     Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions                                                                  ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

          …fuel consumption increases with vehicle size,
     but specific energy consumption (per ton-km) decreases
       Average	
  specific	
  fuel	
  consumption	
                                                                           Average	
  specific	
  fuel	
  consumption	
  
        for	
  different	
  truck	
  sizes	
  in	
  2010                                                                       for	
  different	
  truck	
  sizes	
  in	
  2010
                               (vehicle	
  load:	
  50%)                                                                                             (vehicle	
  load:	
  50%)
12                                                                                                                     3.5
                                 MJ	
  per	
  vehicle-­‐km                                                                                             MJ	
  per	
  ton-­‐km
10                                                                                                                     3.0

                                                                                                                       2.5
 8
                                                                                                                       2.0
 6
                                                                                                                       1.5
 4
                                                                                                                       1.0

 2                                                                                                                     0.5

 0                                                                                                                     0.0
      rigid	
  truck	
  	
  	
   rigid	
  truck	
  	
  	
   trailer	
  truck	
  	
  	
  trailer	
  truck	
  	
  	
            rigid	
  truck	
  	
  	
   rigid	
  truck	
  	
  	
   trailer	
  truck	
  	
  	
  trailer	
  truck	
  	
  	
  
     >3.5-­‐12	
  tons >12	
  tons >20-­‐34	
  tons >34-­‐40	
  tons                                                         >3.5-­‐12	
  tons >12	
  tons >20-­‐34	
  tons >34-­‐40	
  tons
     Source: HBEFA 3.1
                                                                                                            Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                                               24.01.12                                  35
                                                                                                                     Udo Lambrecht
6     Fuel Efficiency and GHG Emissions                             ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

       Specific energy consumption of freight transport with
       heavy-duty trucks reduced by 30% in the last 15 years

                                                                                                                                                           + Larger vehicles
              Decomposition	
  of	
  fuel	
  consumption	
  and	
  GHG	
  emission	
  

                                                                                                                                           + Load factor
                                                                                                                              Technology
            reductions	
  per	
  ton-­‐km	
  of	
  road	
  freight	
  transport	
  in	
  Germany

                                                                                                                                                                               + Biofuels
120%

100%

80%

60%
            fuel	
  consumption:	
  constant	
  truck	
  size	
  and	
  vehicle	
  load
            fuel	
  consumption:	
  constant	
  truck	
  size,	
  increasing	
  load	
  factor
40%
            fuel	
  consumption:	
  increasing	
  truck	
  sizes	
  and	
  load	
  factors
            GHG	
  emissions	
  (WTW):	
  fuel	
  efficiency	
  gains	
  and	
  use	
  of	
  biofuels
20%
                                                                                                        IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
 0%
        1995          1997           1999           2001           2003            2005           2007         2009
                                                                       Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                24.01.12                              36
                                                                                Udo Lambrecht
7   Development of Emissions and Efficiency   ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

     Development of transport, emissions and fuel efficiency
§ Comparisons of past developments and future projections show the importance and the
   success of air pollutant emission regulations in Europe. They also demonstrate the limited
   success of efforts to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions from road-freight transport.
§ Transport performance and mileage of heavy-duty trucks increased strongly from 1960 to
   2010. In the first decades, emissions of NOx and PM increased to a similar extent. However,
   with the introduction of European emission standards, emissions could be strongly reduced.
   Compared to 1995, transport performance increased by 55% and mileage by 16%. In contrast,
   NOx emissions were reduced by 55% and PM emissions by 76%.
§ By 2030, further considerable increases of road freight transport performance (+189%
   compared to 1995) and mileage (+87%) are expected in current transport projections for
   Germany. In the same time frame, air pollutant emissions are expected to decrease by 93%
   (for NOx) and 98% (for PM).
§ The development of fuel consumption and GHG emissions cannot show similar success’ as air
   pollutants. From 1995 to 2010, fuel consumption (+13%) and GHG emissions (+10%) increased
   only slightly lower than mileage of heavy-duty trucks. Also for 2010 to 2030, no clear
   decoupling of fuel consumption and GHG emissions from transport development can be seen.
   In case of the currently projected transport development, GHG emissions of road freight
   transport will continue to increase as the high transport increase overcompensates for future
   expected efficiency gains.

                                                Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                    24.01.12               37
                                                         Udo Lambrecht
7                            Development of Emissions and Efficiency                       ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

        Projections show further increase of transport
  performance and mileage of heavy-duty trucks in Germany
                                                         Transport	
  performance	
  of	
  heavy-­‐duty	
  trucks	
  in	
  Germany
                                                                         1960-­‐2010                                            trend	
  scenario	
  2010-­‐2030
                  1'000                                                                                                 1'000
                                       Euro	
  VI
                             800       Euro	
  V                                                                         800
                                       Euro	
  I V
billion	
   ton-­‐km

                             600       Euro	
  I II                                                                      600
                                       Euro	
  I I
                             400       Euro	
  I                                                                         400
                                       <	
  E uro	
  I
                             200                                                                                         200
                                             IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
                               0                                                                                           0
                                1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010                                      2010 2015         2020     2025    2030

                                                          Annual	
  mileages	
  of	
  heavy-­‐duty	
  trucks	
  in	
  Germany
                                                                          1960-­‐2010                                           trend	
  scenario	
  2010-­‐2030
                             100                                                                                         100
                                      Euro	
  VI
                             80       Euro	
  V                                                                           80
                                      Euro	
  I V
        billion	
   veh.km

                             60       Euro	
  I II                                                                        60
                                      Euro	
  I I
                             40       Euro	
  I                                                                           40
                                      <	
  E uro	
  I
                             20                                                                                           20
                                   IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
                              0                                                                                            0
                               1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010                                       2010      2015    2020    2025     2030

                                                                                             Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                   24.01.12                   38
                                                                                                      Udo Lambrecht
7                   Development of Emissions and Efficiency                 ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

Despite of increasing goods transport NOx and PM emissions
            from heavy-duty trucks will decrease
                                         Annual	
  NOx emissions	
  from	
  heavy-­‐duty	
  trucks	
  in	
  Germany
                                                        1960-­‐2010                                           trend	
  scenario	
  2010-­‐2030
                    500                                                                                 500
                                                                                                                                        Euro	
  VI
                    400                                                                                 400                             Euro	
  V
thousand	
   tons

                                                                                                                                        Euro	
  I V
                    300                                                                                 300                             Euro	
  I II
                                                                                                                                        Euro	
  I I
                    200                                                                                 200                             Euro	
  I
                                                                                                                                        <	
  E uro	
  I
                    100                                                                                 100
                          IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
                     0                                                                                   0
                      1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010                              2010     2015      2020   2025        2030

                                  Annual	
  exhaust	
  PM	
  emissions	
  from	
  heavy-­‐duty	
   trucks	
  in	
  Germany
                                                         1960-­‐2010                                          trend	
  scenario	
  2010-­‐2030
                    16                                                                                  16
                                                                                                                                        Euro	
  VI
                                                                                                                                        Euro	
  V
                    12                                                                                  12
thousand	
   tons

                                                                                                                                        Euro	
  I V
                                                                                                                                        Euro	
  I II
                     8                                                                                   8                              Euro	
  I I
                                                                                                                                        Euro	
  I
                     4                                                                                   4                              <	
  E uro	
  I

                          IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
                     0                                                                                   0
                      1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010                              2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

                                                                             Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                  24.01.12                     39
                                                                                      Udo Lambrecht
7                             Development of Emissions and Efficiency                        ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

...but increase of fuel consumption and GHG since efficiency
   gains are overcompensated by high increase of transport
                                                            Annual	
  fuel	
  consumption	
  from	
  heavy-­‐duty	
  trucks	
  in	
  Germany
                                                                             1960-­‐2010                                        trend	
  scenario	
  2010-­‐2030
                               800                                                                                        800
                                          Euro	
  VI
                                          Euro	
  V
                               600                                                                                        600
Peta	
  Joule

                                          Euro	
  I V
                                          Euro	
  I II
                               400        Euro	
  I I                                                                     400
                                          Euro	
  I
                                          <	
  E uro	
  I
                               200                                                                                        200

                                     IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
                                0                                                                                          0
                                 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010                                     2010     2015      2020   2025    2030

                                                            Annual	
  GHG	
  emissions	
  from	
  heavy-­‐duty	
  trucks	
  in	
  Germany
                                                                             1960-­‐2010                                        trend	
  scenario	
  2010-­‐2030
                                60                                                                                         60
                                         Euro	
  VI
million	
   tons	
  CO2 equ.

                                50       Euro	
  V                                                                         50
                                         Euro	
  I V
                                40       Euro	
  I II                                                                      40
                                30       Euro	
  I I                                                                       30
                                         Euro	
  I
                                20       <	
  E uro	
  I                                                                   20
                                10                                                                                         10
                                     IFEU/TREMOD	
  2011
                                0                                                                                           0
                                 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010                                      2010    2015      2020   2025     2030

                                                                                               Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                    24.01.12                  40
                                                                                                        Udo Lambrecht
7    Development of Emissions and Efficiency                 ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

 Strong decoupling of air pollutant emissions from transport
development. For GHG emissions only lower effects expected
               Relative	
  development	
  of	
  heavy-­‐duty	
  truck	
  transport	
  in	
  Germany	
  
           compared	
  with	
  related	
  emissions	
  and	
  fuel	
  consumption	
  from	
  1995	
  to	
  2030
   250%
   225%                    past	
  development                                      trend	
  scenario
   200%                                                                                                                         +189%
                 	
  Mileage	
  (veh.km)
   175%
                 	
  Transport	
  performance	
  (ton-­‐km)
   150%          	
  Fuel	
  consumption
   125%          	
  GHG	
  emissions
   100%          	
  NOx	
  emissions                                                                                           +87%
      75%        	
  PM	
  emissions                                                                                            +63%
      50%                                                                                                                       +55%
      25%
       0%
   -­‐2 5%
   -­‐5 0%
   -­‐7 5%
             IFEU/TREMOD 2011                                                                                                   -93%
-­‐1 00%                                                                                                                        -98%
          1995                 2000        2005             2010          2015            2020               2025         2030

                                                               Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                  24.01.12               41
                                                                        Udo Lambrecht
8   Summary                         ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

                                  Summary
§ High increase of truck transport led to increasing share on fuel consumption
   and GHG emissions – and significant contribution to NOx and PM emissions.
§ In the last 20 years, NOx and PM exhaust emissions from heavy-duty trucks
   improved significantly as a result of EU fuel quality and emission legislation
§ Usage patterns, vehicle size and load still have high impact on exhaust
   emissions per vehicle km and ton-km.
§ Specific fuel consumption of new trucks decreased significantly before
   1990, however, nearly stagnation in the last 20 years.
§ Higher vehicle loads and shift to larger vehicles considerably reduced the
   specific fuel consumption and GHG emissions per transport volume.
§ For the future, projections show further increase of transport volumes and
   mileage of heavy-duty trucks in Germany.
§ Even so, NOx and PM emissions from heavy duty trucks will decrease.
§ However, fuel consumption and GHG emissions will continue to increase as
   the high transport increase overcompensates expected efficiency gains.
                                     Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                         24.01.12               42
                                              Udo Lambrecht
ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

Frank Dünnebeil                    Udo Lambrecht                                 Dr. Harald Diaz-Bone
Senior Researcher                  Scientific Director                           TRANSfer Project Director (AV)
Dep. Transport and Environment     Head of Dep. Transport and Environment        Transport and Climate Change
ifeu – Institut für Energie- und   ifeu – Institut für Energie- und              Division 44 Water, Energy and Transport
Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH    Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH               Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale
Wilckensstr. 3                     Wilckensstr. 3                                Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
D-69120 Heidelberg                 D-69120 Heidelberg                            P.O. Box 5180
Germany                            Germany                                       D-65726 Eschborn
                                                                                 Germany
Fon: +49 (0) 6221 / 47 67 -61      Fon: +49 (0) 6221 / 47 67 -35
Fax: +49 (0) 6221 / 47 67 -19      Fax: +49 (0) 6221 / 47 67 -19                 Fon: +49 (0) 6196 / 79 25 54
E-Mail: frank.duennebeil@ifeu.de   E-Mail: udo.lambrecht@ifeu.de                 Fax: +49 (0) 6196 / 79 80 25 54
www.ifeu.de                        www.ifeu.de                                   E-Mail: harald.diaz-bone@giz.de
                                                                                 http://www.transferproject.org/

                                                  Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                      24.01.12               43
                                                           Udo Lambrecht
A   TREMOD                            ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

§ TREMOD: TRansport Emission MODel
     Developed by IFEU for and in close cooperation
        with the German Federal Environment Agency,
        Ministry of Transport, Association of Automobile
        Manufacturers and others (since 1993)
     Official database for emission reporting of the German Government
§ Based on a range of European measurement programs:
     Measurement of the driving patterns of vehicles
      • Cycles recorded in real world traffic (car following method)
      • Weighted by traffic volume for a specific traffic situation
     Measurement at vehicles (emission behaviour)
      • Vehicles grouped to different layers with comparable emission
         characteristics (vehicle types and sizes/ EURO stages, etc.)
      • Engine maps/ Real world cycles
      • Weighting according to fleet composition
     Harmonized with “Handbook of Emission Factors” (INFRAS Bern et al.)
     ERMES Group: European Research Group on Mobile Emission Sources
                                       Authors: Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                           24.01.12               44
                                                Udo Lambrecht
A       TREMOD                                                                               ifeu - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg GmbH

       Emission Calculation for Passenger Cars in TREMOD

                                                                       BEFA: Basic Em ission Factor

                                                                                                       Modelling all relevant factors:
     First Registrations                                               EFA: Em ission Factor

                            Age Distribution

                                                                                                              driving behaviour,
     Lifetime Functions
                             Vehicle Stock
                                                                                                       "
                              Emissions

                                                                                                              mileage,
                                                 Layers of Vehicle
                           Standards per 1st
                               Reg. Year
                                                      Stock
                                                                                                       "
                                                                         Stack and Mileage

                                                                                                              load factor,
                                                 Mileage Behaviour
                                                      per Layer
                                                                          Share per Road
                                                                          Category + Layer             "
        Total Mileage

     Mileage Share per     Mileage per Road
                                                                                                       "      differentiated emission factors,..
                                                                                                       Estimation of
      Road Category            Category

                            Share of Traffic     Mileage per Traffic
                           Situations/Gradient   Situation/Gradient
                                                                                                       "      fuel consumption and
                                                                                                              exhaust and evaporative emissions
    BEFA per Layer +
     Driving Pattern                                                                                   "
    Gradient-/Mileage
       -Correction
                             warm EFA per
                             Layer+Driving                                         Stock, Mileage,
                                                                                                              (CO2, CO, NOx, NMHC, CH4,
                                                                                                              benzene, SO2, particulates, N2O,
                                Pattern                                                Energy
                                                  warm EFA per                     Consum ption,
                            Traffic Situation    Layer+TrafficSit./                Em issions per
                               Definition            Gradient                      Road Category
                                                                                      and Layer
                                                                                                              NH3).
                                                                                                              for all motorized passenger
    Cold Start Factors
                                                                                                       "
     Ambient Tempe-
    rature, Trip length,
                               Cold Start
                           Emissions per Start                                                                and goods vehicles.
      Standing Time            and Layer
                                                    Number of Starts
                                                      and Stopps                                       "      for Germany year by year from
      Stopp Factors
                            Stopp Emissions
                             per Stopp and
                                 Layer
                                                                                                              1950 to 2030
                                                      Vehicle Stock
                                                                                                       "      for various scenarios.
                            Tank Breathing
    Tank Breathing
                            Emissions per
       Factors
                             Vehicle + Day

                                                                                           Authors:
                                                                                 IFEU Heidelberg       Frank Dünnebeil
                                                                                                                                  24.01.12               45
                                                                                                       Udo Lambrecht
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