2019 Edition SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 - Euroconsult
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22th Edition
2019 Edition
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED
BY 2028
A complete analysis & forecast of satellite manufacturing &
launch services
An Extract
A Euroconsult Research Report
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release
ABOUT THIS RESEARCH REPORT
SCOPE
Satellites to be Built & Launched by 2028 is a required reading for
anyone interested in the business generated by satellite systems
and their launches. The report is fully updated, providing all the
key figures and analysis needed to understand the global space
market, and the future opportunities & challenges.
EXTENSIVE FIGURES & ANALYSIS FOR THE COMING
DECADE
All Euroconsult research has, at its core, data derived from over
30 years of tracking all levels of the satellite/space value chain. To
this we add dozens of dedicated industry interviews each year,
along with the continual refinement of our data models, and the
collection and interpretation of company press releases and
financial filings. Our consultants have decades of experience
interpreting and analyzing our proprietary databases in light of the
broader value chain.
When you purchase research from Euroconsult, you receive
thousands of data points and the expert interpretation of what this
means for specific verticals and sectors of the satellite value
chain, including forecasts based on years of data and highly
refined models. 6,000€
INCLUDED IN THIS PRODUCT Single user report incl. efiles
• Forecast up to 2028 in units, mass and value
Enterprise license available
• All segments of the value chain reviewed
• Satellite forecast database included
Purchase the report at our online shop
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release 2
TABLE OF CONTENT 1/2
INTRODUCTION 02\ COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT AND PERFORMANCE OF MARKET PLAYERS
4 PURPOSE 42 THE SPACE INDUSTRY GLOBALLY
5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY SATELLITE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
7 SCOPE & DEFINITIONS
8 LESSON LEARNED 45 2019 FOR THE SATELLITE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY – NEW
9 METHODOLOGY 46 STRATEGIC ISSUES – NEW
10 METHODOLOGY : FOCUS ON CONSTELLATIONS – NEW 47 STRUCTURE OF THE INDUSTRY
11 RESULTS OF CONSTELLATION STATUS ASSESSMENT – NEW 50 THE COMMUNICATION SATELLITE INDUSTRY
12 RESULTS OF CONSTELLATION MATURITY ASSESSMENT – NEW 54 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
13 ACRONYMS 56 SATELLITE MANUFACTURERS MARKET SHARE
57 DISTRIBUTION OF SATELLITE MANUFACTURERS
01\ STRATEGIC ISSUES & TRENDS FOR SATELLITE 60 INNOVATIONS
MANUFACTURING AND LAUNCH INDUSTRIES 65 DIVERSITY OF PLATFORM – NEW
66 EVOLUTION OF PLATFORMS
15 2019 FOR THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY – NEW 70 NON GEO SATELLITE INDUSTRY
16 2019 FOR THE LAUNCH INDUSTRY – NEW 74 PROFILES OF 10 COMPANIES
17 WHAT TO EXPECT FOR 2020 – NEW 75 SATELLITE ORDERS BACKLOG – NEW
19 THE BIG PICTURE IN THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY
20 A NEW TYPOLOGY OF THE DEMAND
LAUNCH INDUSTRY
SATELLITE FORECAST 90 2019 FOR THE LAUNCH INDUSTRY
21 TYPE OF SATELLITE OPERATOR 91 STRATEGIC ISSUES
22 APPLICATIONS 92 STRUCTURE OF THE INDUSTRY
23 REGIONS OF SATELLITE OPERATOR 93 GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF ORBITAL SPACEPORTS AND LAUNCH VEHICLES
24 ORBITS IN 2019
25 # OF SATELLITES – NEW 98 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
26 MASS TO BE LAUNCHED – NEW 90 LAUNCH SERVICE PROVIDERS MARKET SHARE
27 INDUSTRY REVENUES – NEW
28 MANUFACTURING REVENUES BY ORBIT & BY CLIENT 91 THE GTO LAUNCH INDUSTRY
29 LAUNCH REVENUES BY ORBIT & BY CLIENT 109 LEO LAUCH INDUSTRY
30 THREE DISTRIBUTIONS OF FUTURE SPACE INDUSTRY 110 LAUNCH RATES – NEW
REVENUES 111 INNOVATIONS – NEW
31 DEMAND AND SUPPLY DISTRIBUTION 2009 TO 2018 – NEW 112 LAUNCH BACKLOG – NEW
113 PROFILES OF 4 COMPANIES
MARKET DRIVERS
33 CONCENTRATION ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN
34 NEW USER REQUIREMENTS ARE DRIVING CHANGES – NEW
35 SATELLITE OPERATORS MITIGATING UNCERTAINTIES – NEW
36 FLEXIBILITY TO MITIGATE MARKET UNCERTAINTIES – NEW
37 INNOVATIONS ALL ALONG THE VALUE CHAIN
38 TECHNICAL RISKS ALSO PART OF THE ECONOMIC EQUATION
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release 3
TABLE OF CONTENT 2/2
03\ COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT AND PERFORMANCE OF MARKET PLAYERS
120 TRENDS FOR COMMERCIAL DEMAND
121 DEMAND FOR COMMERCIAL SATELLITES
122 THE THREE ORBITS (GEO, MEO, LEO) ARE NOW COMMERCIAL
125 COMMERCIAL SPACE STILL MEANS COMMUNICATION SATELLITES
126 THE COMMERCIAL MARKET BY APPLICATION
134 GEO COMSAT MARKET DEMAND AT A TURNING POINT– NEW
140 GEO COMSAT DEMAND CYCLE – NEW
141 HIGH-THROUGHPUT PAYLOADS FOR BROADBAND COMMUNICATION
145 COMSAT MARKET DRIVEN BY CONSOLIDATION OF EXISTING OPERATORS & BY NEW ENTRANT
146 EIGHT COMSAT CONSTELLATIONS, OF WHICH SEVEN FOR BROADBAND COMMUNICATIONS
150 COMMERCIAL EARTH OBSERVATION
151 IN-ORBIT SERVICING OF COMSAT SYSTEMS
04/ GOVERNMENT SATELLITE DEMAND
153 TRENDS FOR GOVERNMENT DEMAND – NEW
154 GOVERNMENT MARKET HIERARCHY – NEW
155 MARKET HIERARCHY BETWEEN CUSTOMERS, APPLICATIONS AND REGIONS
161 GROWTH IN FUTURE GOVERNMENT DEMAND IS DRIVEN BY CIVILIAN SATELLITES
162 EARTH OBSERVATION DOMINANT FOR CIVILIAN SATELLITES
168 ASIA DOMINATES CIVILIAN SATELLITE MARKET AND THE USA THE MILITARY MARKET
170 NEWCOMER SPACE COUNTRIES
172 MARKET DYNAMICS BY ORBIT: LEO, MEO, GEO, ESCAPE
180 MARKET DYNAMICS BY APPLICATION: COMSAT, NAVSAT, METSAT, EOSAT, SECURITY …
05/ SATELLITE BACKLOG AND FORECAST
BACKLOG OF COMMERCIAL SATELLITES UNDER CONSTRUCTION TO BE LAUNCHED FROM JAN. 2019
EUROCONSULT’S FORECAST OF GOVERNMENT SATELLITES TO BE LAUNCHED OVER 2019–2028
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release 4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SATELLITE INDUSTRY EXPERIENCING DISRUPTION
Over the next 10 years, Euroconsult anticipates that anticipates an average of 990
satellites will be launched every year for the next ten years, regardless of their
2009 2018 2019 2028 mass*. The demand is experiencing a x4 increase with 9,900 satellites to be launched
by 2028 compared to the to 2,300 satellites launched during the last decade. With a 4Y
CAGR of 21% between 2019 and 2023 in number of satellites, the industry is
Average number of satellites launched per year experiencing a quick and radical transformation regarding the number of satellites,
value and mass highlighted by the following trends:
• From 2019 to 2028, manufacturing and launch services combined should reach a
market value of $292 billion of which 75% concentrated by satellite manufacturing
230 990 and 25% for launch activities.
• Commercial satellite operators are experiencing significant changes that are part of
a long term from a legacy GEO comsat broadcasting business to more data centric
use cases. Euroconsult estimates that the demand to build and launch Telecom
satellites will reach a yearly average of $8 billions.
Top 3 applications (satellite manufacturing and launch value)
• Constellations in LEO and MEO will concentrate 77% of the demand in satellites
36% 31% whilst GEO will only retain 4% but still concentrate 39% in value. 55 commercial
28% 27% constellations projects (of more than 5 satellites each) will launch a total of 6,600
13% 15%
satellites.
• Smallsat broadband mega-constellations are becoming a reality by entering
deployment phase after the successful in-orbit validation of prototypes and the
latest financing rounds of the most advanced projects, OneWeb and Starlink. Other
EO TELECOM SECURITY TELECOM EO SECURITY projects out of the smallsat range are gearing up too (Telesat, Kuiper) but have yet
to commit to their suppliers. These four mega constellations (Oneweb, Starlink,
Telesat and Kuiper) accounting for 39% of the demand (i.e. 3,900 satellites) with
different go-to-market and vertical integration strategies.
*Manned spaceflight application is not included in the scope of this report
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Civil government agencies* are the first customers of satellites, with 40% of the demand
in value, above defense and commercial operators. Expansion of space science,
exploration and earth observation are driving the demand. On the defense side, a
2009 2018 2019 2028 transformative period is starting with program replacement and enactment of new
strategies within each of the incumbent players like the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, India
and Europe.
Most dominant orbits • For manufacturers, the commercial GEO comsat market is showing signs of recovery
(# of satellites, mass and manufacturing & launch value) from the previous years’ downturn with 10 satellite orders to date, making 2019 better in
orders compared to 2017 and 2018. The market is also experiencing a growing diversity
of satellite platforms. Airbus or Maxar have secured first orders for fully reconfigurable
SSO LEO broadband payloads enabling satellite operators to mitigate evolution of their vertical
(920 sats) (6,630 sats) markets. At the lower end of the spectrum, a few smallsat missions are also under
integration for the same purposes.
• The access to space industry is diversifying with new smallsat dedicated launchers
becoming a reality, such as Rocket. In this segment, dozens of launchers are under
T T development around the world, with different levels of maturity. A new generation of GTO
capable launchers will be entering the market within the next two years with a design to
GEO GEO LEO GEO cost focus. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s semi reusable launcher has been widely accepted by
(1,492 Tons) ($106 billion) (1,658 Tons) ($103 billion) satellite operators, and fully reusable launchers are entering their development phase.
THE WORLD’S SATELLITE MARKET OVER TWO DECADES (according to NEW SCOPE FOR THE 2019 EDITION
Euroconsult’s 2019 forecast) For this edition, the scope of the report was extended to include the global satellite demand,
2009–2018 2019–2028
Growth regardless of the satellites’ mass (previous editions included satellites with a launch mass
rate >50 kg). This new scope aims to provide a global overview of the satellite demand and
2,298 9,935 includes the impact of the growth of smallsat (LESSON LEARNED FROM OVER 20 YEARS
METHODOLOGY
Euroconsult’s satellite forecast versus market reality throughout
7 editions of its Survey The methodology and segmentation for this report has been consistent
throughout all editions of the survey since its first release 22 years ago. If
% of difference in number of satellites per comparable period between forecast and reality improvements have been introduced in the granularity of the forecast, the
two basic principles have remained the same:
90% • Mutually exclusive and completely exhaustive segmentation (see below)
Euroconsult surplus
Constellation in order to be representative of the whole space industry (but to avoid
Non-GEO overestimate vs.
double counting);
reality
70% GEO
• Large constellation projects (as of today or in the late 1990s) always
individualized for comparison to be consistent over the long term.
50% The quantitative forecast model includes three stages of assumptions:
• Number of satellites to be launched over the next 10 years—Some of
them are already under construction (see next page), but most of them
30%
remain to be funded, including commercial constellations;
Euroconsult deficit
• Mass of the satellites to be launched, according to a mass distribution
10% model by application/orbit presented in Parts 3 and 4; and
• Cost to build and launch the satellites, based on specific prices to build
1997-2006 1998-2007 2000-2009 2002-2011 2004-2013 2007-2016 2009-2018 and launch them. The price per kilogram varies according to the supplier
-10%
21 years of comparison possible origin, the mission of the satellite, the payload and the orbit.
SATELLITE LAUNCH MASS
-30% Average launch mass per application is assumed for satellites when it is
not otherwise known or easy to estimate on a case-by-case basis (see
satellites nominatively in part 5).
A reality check of Euroconsult’s forecast has been conducted in preparation for the
2019 edition of the survey. The number of GEO and non-GEO satellites launched in SPECIFIC PRICES ($ PER KG)
the past ten years (2009–2018) was compared with our forecast for that period. In Future satellite manufacturing and launch prices are estimated based on
the 2009 edition of our survey that covered that period, we had a non-GEO surplus historical price data points that allow correlating a given mass with a given
of 11% and a GEO deficit of -3%. price to derive specific prices, i.e., price per kilogram. Change in average
2010 Edition was the first one since 2000 to underestimate the non-GEO segment specific prices per satellite category or launch category were assumed for
(mainly commercial constellations) whereas previous editions corrected previous the next decade (2019-2028) relative to the past decade (2009-2018). The
over-estimates Our deficit in GEO forecast reflects a higher-than-expected resiliency revenues of satellite manufacturing and launch are annualized (i.e. not
of the GEO comsat market after crisis time. In the early 2010s, government comsat 100% of the revenue is recognized at launch year). Satellite manufacturing
systems compensated for the slowdown in commercial comsat more than expected. prices differ according to the application of the satellite system, the payload
and the origin of the satellite integrator. Satellite launch prices differ
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT according to the final orbit and the origin of the launch provider. The origin
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release of the supplier and the mass category are also considered. 72019 FOR THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY 500
400
104 satellites >500 kg
300
The satellite industry
generated 200
386 smallsats**
$27.9 billion for 100
0
both manufacturing and 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20
launch
Technology
29%
The U.S. accounted
for 57% of the demand
490 Telecom
35%
EO
277 launched* in 2019 17%
Telecommunication
in 103
satellites
was the 1st application with
173 satellites
LEO/SSO
10
concentrated both the
heaviest payloads (225
tons) and the highest
number of satellites 389 t
(438) commercial launched
GEO comsat ordered
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release * Inclusive of all missions **Satellites with a launch mass < 500 kg2019-2028 TRENDS FOR THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY
4,3
67%
x
Of future demand in
number of satellites driven
by 75 commercial
constellations By average
990
Growth in number of
2009 - 2018 38% 62%
71% 29%
satellites compared to
2019 - 2028 33%
77%
67%
23% last decade
62%
Single satellite Satellite within constellation (but only x 1,7 in mass)
satellites to
Projects of
Earth
be launched
every year by 2028 20 countries
will launch their first
Observation ever satellite
constellations
20 with more
than 10
¾
satellites each
of the satellite
In both # of satellites (4,842 demand in value
units) and mass (2,300 will be
tons) Telecom will be the concentrated
largest application by satellite
manufacturing
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release2019-2028 TRENDS FOR THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
5 manufacturers have Smallsats** will account for 87%
5 fully reconfigurable
satcom payloads
are now marketed by suppliers
concentrated of the # to be launched but only
55% 13% in value
of the satellites
manufacturing revenues
between 2009-2018
Diversity of commercial 7.075 tons
i.e. $94 billions 300 kg
Astranis-1
GEO comsat satellite Telstar 19V
(2020) (2018)
In 2019 satellite
manufacturers generated Manufacturers looking
to address constellation’s
$21.4 needs by adapting capabilities
Billions to mass
production and
i.e. 77% of the satellite
industry’s revenues
standardization
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT **Satellites with a launch mass < 500 kg
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release2019-2028 TRENDS FOR THE LAUNCH INDUSTRY 100 Smallsat dedicated launchers at
Various development stage
In 2019 launch service
providers generated
2,298 $6.5
Billions
Satellites i.e. 23% of the satellite
industry’s revenues
Launched
in 754 launches
Between 2009 and 2018 satellites will need 4 new GTO
capable
67% launches in Low Earth launchers will be
Orbit i.e. 1,657 Tons available by 2021
(H-3, Ariane 6, Vulan, New Glenn)
¼ of the launch
vehicles lifted
3/4 9m
of the 6 methane fueled
rocket engines
19m
Starship
Satellites under Payload
launched development Fairing
with a focus on size
lowering cost,
reusability and
more efficiency
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release4 COMPLEMENTARY ACTIVITIES
SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT
© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release 12RESEARCH
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© Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release 13SATELLITES TO BE BUILT & LAUNCHED BY 2028 // AN EXTRACT © Euroconsult 2019 – Approved for public release 14
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