A Levels and University Access 2021 - Sutton Trust
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RESEARCH BRIEF JULY 2021
A Levels and University
Access 2021
Erica Holt-White and Carl Cullinane
KEY FINDINGS state schools and those with lower Ofsted ratings.
Impact on learning • 52% of teachers working in the most deprived schools
of the country thought the support they received to
• More than a quarter (27%) of university applicants
determine grades was insufficient compared to 44% of
from a working class background struggled with
those working in schools in the most affluent areas.
insufficient study space at home this year, compared to
16% of those in middle class households. 7% reported • 23% of teachers at private schools report that parents
lacking sufficient internet access. had approached or pressured them about their child’s
grade this year, compared to 17% at more affluent state
• 15% of applicants studying in private schools
schools, and 11% at the least affluent.
received one to one tutoring this year, compared to 9%
at state school. • Students’ views are more positive this year than in
2020, with fewer anticipating that their grades will be
• 69% feel they have fallen behind with their studies
harmed, and more agreeing that the system is as fair or
due to the disruption, with many also feeling that they
more fair than a typical year. Anxieties around fairness
have fallen behind even in comparison to their peers.
also eased between April and June this year.
37% of state school applicants felt this, compared to
25% of private school students. • However, almost half (49%) of state school applicants
said they didn’t feel confident that they would have the
Assessment
right information and support if they needed to appeal
• There was significant variety in the intensity of A their grades. Applicants from independent schools were
Level assessment undertaken by students. The most less likely to not feel confident (43%).
common number of mini-exams/in class assessments
per subject reported by teachers was three or four
University applications and entry
(38%). However 18% reported two or fewer, and 18% • University applications this year are at record levels,
more than six. There were few differences between the including from under-represented groups. The number
state and the private sector, or across different types of of offers made by selective universities have also
school. risen from last year, but the offer rate (the ratio of
applications to offers) has dropped by 5 percentage
• 96% of teachers report at least one assessment sat
points, meaning entry is more competitive. In contrast,
under exam conditions was used for calculating A Level
the offer rate has risen at less selective universities.
grades. 63% reported using mock exams, 80% reported
using past papers, and 35% reported assessments • Half of this year’s applicants feel that the pandemic
written by teachers themselves. Some schools used disruption will negatively impact their chance of getting
home (13%) or previous classroom work (17%). into their first choice university, particularly those
applying to Russell Group institutions (56%).
• Independent schools were more likely than state
schools to use a wider variety of assessments, including • However some anxieties have eased since the Spring,
giving prior access to questions and ‘open book’ with 47% of applicants worried about getting into
assessments. More affluent state schools and those their first university in June, down from 62% in April.
with higher Ofsted ratings were more likely to use mock Nonetheless, many feel unprepared to start university
exams and assessments based on past papers. The this autumn. Those from a state school are more than
opposite was true for homework and classroom work, twice as likely to feel unprepared– 36% compared to
which were more likely to be used by more deprived 17% of private school applicants.
INTRODUCTION their exams and assessment, and of pupils, particularly those without
the transition to their next steps in a laptop, internet connection or
In the wake of last summer’s
education. suitable space to study, or with lower
disruption to the Higher Education
Since the pandemic first hit in March levels of provision from their school.1
entry process, this year’s cohort of
young people finishing school and 2020, schools and colleges have Even when schools and colleges
college have faced their second had two major periods of closure and have been able to open, many
consecutive year of disruption to their enforced remote teaching. This had year groups and class ‘bubbles’
education, impacting their schooling, a significant impact on the learning have been sent home to isolate for
1days at a time after coming into the fairness of any national exam, steady, overall averages can disguise
contact with someone infected with creating dilemmas for Ofqual and the patterns under the surface.11 For
Covid-19. Again, this has affected UK’s other regulators. example, the FSM attainment gap for
disadvantaged pupils the most,2 In November 2020, Wales announced C and over narrowed by 2 percentage
and more closures have been seen that GCSEs, AS and A Levels were points, but for A and over widened by
in the North of England as well as to be cancelled, and in December, 2 percentage points.
London compared to elsewhere in Scotland announced that Higher In 2021 pupils’ grades will be
the South.3 Much emerging evidence exams would no longer take place determined by teachers, without
has demonstrated the effect these (National 5s had already been any adjustment by algorithm, using
disruptions have had on educational cancelled in October). In January, assessment of content relating to only
progress in school, with a particular England followed suit by announcing topics their class had been taught.12
impact on those from disadvantaged that exams would be cancelled and While such an approach could help
backgrounds.4 replaced once again by teacher to account for schools having been
And while the education of pupils assessed grades. able to cover varying amounts of
of all ages has been affected, Faced with another year of no exams, the curriculum, The Trust has been
disadvantaged students in post- changes were clearly required to concerned about individual-level
16 education are at a particularly avoid the chaos of last year’s grading differences in learning loss, most
crucial time in their lives. Those who system, when a combination of likely to impact disadvantaged pupils
entered post-16 education in 2019 teacher ranking and an algorithm was who were less likely to have fully
have faced two years of disrupted initially used to calculate students’ accessed home learning. With schools
education, and are now facing a grades. While overall, socio-economic free to use many different types of
crucial transition period, with very attainment gaps remained steady assessment to inform grades, with no
little time left to catch up before compared to previous years8 the external marking and only light touch
they move into further study or enforced maintenance of these gaps, moderation, there are also significant
employment. as well as many cases of individual worries about consistency and
The government has announced unfairness, led to public outrage. fairness.13 In such circumstances of
several interventions over this time Particular issues arose for high uncertainty, particularly when stakes
to help secondary school pupils, performing disadvantaged pupils are high, it is often the schools and
from the setup of the National in deprived areas,9 with the grades parents with the greatest resources
Tutoring Programme (which has now system seen as a cap on aspiration. and ‘savvy’ that are most adept at
enrolled over 240,000 pupils)5 to This system also generated significant navigating these complex waters.
the provision of laptops to students uncertainty amongst university
to allow them to participate in online applicants, with Sutton Trust research
lessons.6 However, the support finding that 34% anticipated that
ENTRY TO UNIVERSITY IN
provided to students in post-16 they were more likely to require 2021
education has been lacking. The UCAS Clearing or Adjustment due Uncertainty remains over university
‘recovery premium’ (additional to the pandemic and almost 1 in 3 entry this year. Despite widespread
funding for disadvantaged pupils to expecting to miss out on their first- anxiety, and the chaos of the grades
help them ‘catch up’, announced in choice university as a consequence of controversy, last year saw record
early 2021), the pupil premium and the disruption.10 After the backlash, numbers of disadvantaged 18-year-
the National Tutoring Programme all the system then went back to using olds accepted into university.14
end at age 16, excluding a generation teacher assessed grades to determine In the circumstances, many
of students coming to the end of their final grades, and although the average universities accepted significantly
compulsory education, and proposals socio-economic gaps still remained higher numbers of students than a
to date have fallen short
of what is needed to fully Figure 1: Higher Education application rate, UK domiciled 18 year olds, June deadline 2011-2021
support pupils.7
60%
Examinations as well as
52.3%
learning have been affected. 48.2% 48.2%
47.8% 46.9%
After so much class time 50%
43.9%
was missed, it became 39.5%
41.3%
clear from the beginning of 37.9%
40% 36.1%
34.9% 33.6%
this academic year that it 31.7% 32.9%
30.1%
would be hugely challenging 30%
36.1%
32.5% 32.7% 32.3%
for examinations (both at 30.8%
GCSE and A Level, as well
20%
as equivalent qualifications
in the UK such as Scottish
Highers) to resume in their 10%
pre-pandemic form. As the
autumn wore on, it emerged 0%
that school closures were 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
falling unevenly, threatening England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland
2 Source: UCASnormal year, particularly selective university. It looks at applicants’ students in April 2021 and 463 in
universities, which proved a boon concerns about starting university June 2021 through YouthSight.18
for access. However, it is not clear in the autumn as well as the views When thinking about the most
that we will see similar patterns of both teachers and university recent period of lockdowns and
in access this year, with the whole applicants on this year’s grading school closures, 4% of the young
admissions cycle taking place in a system. people surveyed reported they
new context, whereas the pandemic had insufficient access to a sole
only impacted the final stages of computer, tablet, or laptop to work on
admissions in 2020. Indeed, patterns LEARNING IN LOCKDOWN (Figure 2). This figure has reduced
of applications and offers for UK Even more so than last year’s cohort, since our previous polling in April
students are markedly different in students heading to university 2020,19 where 9% did not have sole
2021, with a substantial increase in this year have had a substantially access to an internet-enabled device,
18 year olds applying to university in disrupted education due to most likely due to the government’s
all four nations (Figure 1). The overall nationwide lockdowns and school scheme (as part of strategies to
application rate has leapt to 43.3% closures across two years of their improve internet access at home, as
in 2021, from 40.5% in 2020 and education. Many have also spent referenced above), as well as efforts
38.9% in 2019. time at home even when schools from charities and businesses to
Whilst UCAS have seen increases in have been open, due to their school provide free laptops for disadvantaged
the number of offers from selective or bubble closing, or needing to young people. 7% of applicants
institutions, even higher than self-isolate due to having Covid-19. said they had insufficient access
last year,15 there are reports from Without a classroom environment to the internet. This is the same
headteachers that students set to to work in, access to the internet as figure as when we polled university
achieve top grades have missed out well as a suitable space to work at applicants in April 2020, despite
on offers from all their choices.16 home became a necessity to continue the government’s scheme to provide
Some universities have expressed learning, revising, and applying to internet dongles to those without
concern about grade inflation (the university. a connection as part of education
2020 A level grades, eventually based To investigate this year’s university recovery plans.20 Issues with internet
on teacher assessment, were the applicants’ experience of learning coverage and bandwidth needs for
highest ever), with worries that more and preparing for university at home; an increase in online lessons during
applicants will meet the conditions of how applicants feel about this year’s more recent lockdowns may explain
their offers than some universities are grading system; and concerns about this.
able to accommodate. starting university, we polled 497 UK Access to a suitable space to study
With coronavirus still circulating
in summer 2021, concerns among
Figure 2: Access to the internet, tech and a suitable study space by socio-economic group
students also remain about what the
university experience will be like in 7%
the next academic year, with social Internet access
7%
mixing restrictions (such as holding
lectures online and delaying freshers
2%
week)17 possibly in place. Access to tech
7%
This research brief considers how the
pandemic has disrupted education 16%
for this year’s cohort of university Suitable space to study
27%
applicants, changed the nature of
A level assessments and affected
students’ transition from school to ABC1 C2DE
Source: Youthsight student polling, April 2021
Figure 3: Satisfaction with support for learning by school type
State funded school 22% 52% 5% 15% 6%
Private school 33% 50% 4% 13%
Very satisfied Fairly satisfied Not sure/ don’t know Fairly unsatisfied Not at all satisfied
3 Source: Youthsight student polling, April 2021Figure 4: Views on falling behind by school type
at home has also remained an issue,
with 19% of applicants saying they 'I have fallen behind my peer group'
had insufficient study space (up from 37%
Agree
17% in April 2020). As discussed in 25%
previous Sutton Trust research,21 as 56%
Disagree
school provision for online learning 63%
increased in 2021 compared to the Not sure/don't 7%
previous year, so did expectations know 13%
on pupils, whether in terms of
internet strength for online lessons, 'I have fallen behind with my studies'
or suitable space to engage with 70%
Agree
them. 27% of those from a working-
67%
class background said they had 27%
insufficient access to a study space Disagree
27%
- 11 percentage points more than Not sure/don't 4%
those from a middle-class background know 6%
(16%).
As shown in Figure 3, whilst out of State funded school Private school
the classroom, the vast majority of
applicants (75%) thought that the Source: Youthsight student polling, June 2021
support and resources for learning
provided by their school was Figure 5: Average number of mini exams/in class assessments used by teachers
satisfactory. This is 7 percentage to determine GCSE and A Level grades
points up compared to the first
lockdown in April 2020 when 68% More than 6 21%
of applicants said they were satisfied. 18%
Nonetheless, a sizeable proportion
(20%) were not satisfied. Those at 5-6 24%
a state school were 8 percentage 24%
points more likely to be dissatisfied
compared to those at a private school 3-4 38%
38%
(21% compared to 13%).
To further support students missing 13%
1-2
out on class time, some students 14%
have started (or carried on) receiving
private tutoring. 10% of applicants None 3%
said they had received tutoring paid 4%
for either by their school or family.
This is only slightly more than during Don’t know/unsure 2%
3%
the first lockdown in March 2020,
where 8% of children were accessing
private tuition (albeit based on a GCSE A level
larger sample of pupils from all
year groups),22 despite additional Source: Teacher Tapp survey of teachers, June 2021 (Excludes those who said ‘Not Relevant’)
funding for tuition for 16-19 year
olds being announced in February of than those from a private school feeling that they had fallen behind
this year.23 Those at a private school (70% compared to 67% respectively) their peer group (42%) compared
were 6 percentage points more likely (Figure 4). to 31% of white applicants. While
to report receiving tutoring at 15% measuring how far someone has
Furthermore, 36% of applicants
compared to 9% of those at a state ‘fallen behind’ is difficult, particularly
agreed with the statement ‘I have
school. for older pupils, young people’s
fallen behind my peer group as a
10% of those at a private school result of the pandemic’. 37% of perception of their performance is an
reported that this tutoring had been applicants from a state school felt important factor in their wellbeing
paid for by their school, compared to they had fallen behind compared and in shaping their aspirations.
only 2% of those at state schools. to a 25% of private school
In June, 69% of applicants agreed applicants. Those from working class ASSESSMENT AND GRADING
with the statement ‘I have fallen backgrounds were slightly more
likely to feel they had fallen behind Following last year’s grading
behind with my studies compared
compared to those from middle controversy, where students were
to where I would have been without
class backgrounds (37% compared unable to sit examinations and grades
the disruption’, with 30% saying that
to 34% respectively). Applicants were generated by an algorithm, it
they strongly agree. Applicants from
from an ethnic minority background was decided that teachers would set
a state school were slightly more
were also more likely to report the grades of their pupils using a
likely to agree with the statement
4chosen set of assessment materials, similar for GCSEs, with 3-4 had prior access to the questions in
and these would not be statistically assessments also being the most their assessments, 14% said their
adjusted.24 To find out more about common number (reported by 38% students could see the mark schemes
the materials being used to assess of GCSE teachers). More data on the before completing their assessments
students this year and what teachers’ types of assessments being used to and 12% said the assessments were
views are on the new process, we determine this year’s GCSE grades ‘open book’ (where students have
polled 3,221 teachers in England can be found in Appendix A. access to supporting materials like a
through polling platform Teacher Tapp In terms of the type of assessments textbook). A small number of teachers
in June.25 being taken, almost all A-Level (2%) said the same papers were used
As shown in Figure 5, the number teachers (96%) said that at least one multiple times to decide grades.
of ‘mini exams’ and-or assessments assessment sat in exam conditions While the use of exam condition
teachers are using to determine had been used to determine TAGs this assessments was consistent across
A level Teacher Assessed Grades year (shown in Figure 6). 80% used all school types, independent schools
(TAGs) appears to be mixed. The assessments based on past papers, were more likely than state schools
most common number was 3-4 63% used mock examinations, and to offer students prior access to
assessments per subject, with 38% 35% used assessments written by questions (24% v 19% in the state
of teachers reporting this. 18% of teachers themselves. 17% reported sector), marking schemes (19% v
A level teachers said they set 6 or including previous classroom work, 13%) and ‘open book’ assessments
more assessments for their class and 13% used homework. 20% of (18% v 11%).
this year, 24% said 5-6, and 14% teachers reported that their students Schools with more affluent intakes,
said 1-2. A small
proportion (4%) of
teachers said they Figure 6: Type of assessments used by A-level teachers to determine grades
set no mini exams Assessments sat under exam conditions 96%
and-or assessments
Assessments based on past papers 80%
for their class.
While broadly Mock exams 63%
similar patterns Assessments written by teachers 35%
were reported by
university applicants Assessments with prior access to questions 20%
sitting A Levels Previous classroom work 17%
or equivalent
Assessments with prior access to mark schemes 14%
qualifications,
33% reported in Homework 13%
June that they had Open book assessments 12%
taken 6 or more
mini exams or Assessments using the same paper multiple times 2%
assessments per None of these 1%
subject.
Patterns were Source: Teacher Tapp survey of teachers, June 2021 (Excludes those who said ‘Not Relevant’)
Figure 7: Teacher views on support and guidance to determine grades by level of deprivation in school
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Net sufficient Net insufficient Don't know / Unsure
Private Q1 (affluent) Q2 Q3 Q4 (deprived)
Source: Teacher Tapp survey of teachers, June 2021 (Excludes those who said ‘Not Relevant’)
5and those with higher Ofsted Figure 8: Teacher confidence in this year’s grading system
ratings, were more likely to use
mock exams (64% in the most Very confident 12%
affluent compared to 55% in the
most deprived) and assessments
based on past papers (80% Quite confident 46%
compared to 74%). The opposite
was true for previous classroom
work (14% v 18%).
Not confident 25%
Whilst just over half (52%) of
teachers, at both GCSE and A
Level, said they had received Not at all confident 13%
sufficient support and guidance to
determine grades this year, 46%
found the support insufficient Don’t know/unsure 3%
(Figure 7). Teachers working in
the most deprived schools of the
Source: Teacher Tapp survey of teachers, June 2021 (Excludes those who said ‘Not Relevant’)
country were 8 percentage points
more likely to report the support
they received as insufficient Figure 9: Whether a parent/s had pressured teachers over their child’s grades by level of
compared to those working in deprivation in school
schools in the most affluent
25%
areas (52% compared to 44%
respectively). Those working in
state schools were also more likely
to say the support they received 20%
was insufficient - 47% reported
this compared to 41% of teachers
working in private schools. 15%
16%
As shown in Figure 8, the majority 9% 5%
(58%) of teachers are ‘very’ or 10%
‘quite’ confident about the system 6%
7%
in place to determine grades
this year. However, 39% are not
5% 10%
confident about the system, with 7%
6% 6%
13% saying they are ‘not at all’ 5%
confident. Views appear to be
0%
consistent in state schools across Private Q1 (affluent) Q2 Q3 Q4 (deprived)
levels of deprivation, with 40%
Yes, one Yes, more than one
of teachers in the most deprived
schools ‘not’ or ‘not at all’ confident
in the system and 38% of those
working in the most affluent
Figure 10: Impacts applicants think this year’s grading system will have on their own grades
schools saying the same. However, comparing 2021 to 2020
47% of private school teachers
were not confident about the 4%
I think my grades will be much better
system compared to 37% of state 2%
school teachers.
I think my grades will be slightly better 23%
With grades in the hands of 15%
teachers rather than exam boards
this year, there are concerns that I think my grades will be about the same 43%
34%
teachers may feel pressurised by
parents to change their child’s
I think my grades will be slightly worse 18%
grades.26 15% of teachers said 35%
that a parent had approached
and/or pressured them about I think my grades will be much worse 4%
their child’s grades this year 8%
– 8% reported that multiple
Not sure/don’t know 9%
parents had done so. 23% of 6%
teachers at private schools said
than one or more parents have
2021 2020
approached and/or pressured
them, which was 9 percentage Source: Youthsight student polling, April 2021 and 2020
6points more than those working to a smaller 40% of private school 49% of applicants said they felt
in a state school (14%), and were students. Interestingly, this year, unconfident that they would have
more than twice as likely than state 49% of middle-class applicants the correct information and support
school teachers to say they had been thought the system would be less needed to appeal their grades if
approached by more than one parent fair compared to 35% of those from they are unhappy, whilst 39% said
(16% compared to 7% respectively) working class backgrounds. they felt confident. 18% said they
(shown in Figure 9). 17% of teachers Whether grades could be appealed were ‘not at all confident’ about the
working in schools with the most was a controversial element of the process. As shown in Figure 12, those
affluent intakes said they had been approach to assessment last year, from a state school were 6 percentage
approached and/or pressured by at as appeals could only be made if points more likely to feel unconfident
least one parent; 6 percentage points a pupil’s school or college thought compared to private school
more than those working in schools in that unreliable data was used to applicants, with 49% compared to
the most deprived areas (11%). standardise grades.27 This year, 43% reporting that they felt ‘not
students are able to appeal if they confident’ or ‘not at all confident’.
Applicant views Furthermore, 55% of applicants
feel that their TAG is wrong, firstly
Young people are generally more by asking for a review by their centre from an ethnic minority background
positive about the outcomes of this and then logging the appeal with felt unconfident about making an
year’s exam system than last year. the awarding body. However, there appeal, compared to 46% of white
In April, 43% of students thought have been warnings that if there are applicants.
that their grades would be about a high number of appeals, this could
the same as they would have been cause problems for the university
in a typical year (Figure 10). This GETTING INTO UNIVERSITY
admissions process.28
is higher than in April 2020, when As well as the impacts on learning,
only 34% of applicants thought this. Taking these changes into account, pandemic disruption has also meant
26% of applicants thought that their
grades would be better than those Figure 11: Views of applicants on the fairness of the new grading system comparing
they would get in a typical year (up 2021 to 2020
from 17% in April 2020), whilst
22% thought they would be worse Much more fair 11%
2%
(significantly down from 2020 when
43% thought this). Those at a state Somewhat more fair 32%
15%
school were slightly more likely to
think their grades would be worse at 8%
No change 8%
22%, compared to 19% of those at
private schools. 29%
Somewhat less fair 43%
When asked two months later in
June after the assessment period was 16%
Much less fair
complete, applicants’ thoughts on 29%
this year’s grading system appeared
Not sure/don’t know 5%
to be more mixed, with 42% of 3%
students believing the system would
be fairer than in a typical year and June '21 April '20
45% believing it will be less fair. This
is far less than the 72% of applicants
Source: Youthsight student polling, June 2021 and April 2020
who in April 2020 believed last year’s
system would
be less fair than Figure 12: Applicants' confidence in making appeals by school type
normal (Figure
11). 8%
thought there State funded school 6% 33% 12% 31% 18%
would be no
change. These
opinions were
stable before
and after the
assessment
period in Private school 10% 36% 12% 29% 14%
2021. 45% of
applicants from
a state school
thought that
Very confident Quite confident Don't know/unsure/not applicable Not confident Not at all confident
their grades
would be less
fair, compared Source: Youthsight student polling, June 2021
7a significant amount of classroom negative impact. 32% thought the Starting university
time has been missed when students impact was ‘large’ (Figure 14). This
The uncertainty around grades this
could ask teachers about their next did not differ by social background.
year as well as what the university
steps following school and gain
advice on and support with Figure 13: Satisfaction with support and advice on university application process comparing
putting together a personal 2021 to 2020
statement, visiting universities
and applying through UCAS. Very satisfied
20%
Gaining this support from 17%
teachers is particularly vital for
disadvantaged students who Fairly satisfied
47%
typically have less support from 41%
family and friends at home.
When asked about how satisfied 18%
Fairly unsatisfied
21%
they were with their school’s
support and advice on the
10%
university application process, Not at all satisfied
14%
67% of students were either
very or fairly satisfied (up from
6%
57% in April 2020, but lower Not sure/ don’t know
8%
than the equivalent figure
for satisfaction with school
support; as shown in Figure 13). 2021 2020
However, 28% were unsatisfied
with the support they received Source: Youthsight student polling, April 2021 and 2020
– those at a state school were more
than twice as likely to be unsatisfied, Figure 14: Impact of pandemic on university application experience
with 29% of applicants reporting
this compared to 13% of those at a
A large positive impact 0%
private school.
Not only have lockdowns impacted
A small positive impact 2%
support with university applications
when at school, they have also
meant that visiting campuses and No impact 15%
attending outreach programmes
has become more difficult (albeit A small negative impact 48%
many programmes, such as Sutton
Trust Summer Schools, have moved
A large negative impact 32%
online).29 When considering how
pandemic-related restrictions have
impacted the university application Not sure/don't know 3%
process this year, a significant
majority (80%) thought they have Source: Youthsight student polling, April 2021
had a
Figure 15: Impact of the pandemic on getting into first-choice by institution type
Russell Group 2% 14% 21% 37% 19%
Pre 1992 5% 18% 28% 30% 15%
Post 1992 4% 18% 22% 30% 15%
A large positive impact A small positive impact No impact A small negative impact A large negative impact
Source: Youthsight student polling, April 2021
8experience will be like next year (with percentage points higher than White A large proportion of applicants
some universities already planning applicants (50%). Applicants from (66%, albeit down slightly from 69%
to keep lectures online)30 have led to a state school were also more likely in April) also reported feeling worried
significant concern among students to be concerned than those from a about the Covid restrictions that may
about the months ahead. private school (58% compared to be in place at university, with 19%
Taking lost learning, class time and 51% respectively). saying they were very worried.
support into account, half (50%) of 47% were concerned about getting a There appears to be mixed feelings
this year’s university applicants feel place at their first choice university, amongst students regarding readiness
that the impact of the pandemic down from 62% in April, with for university this autumn. Whilst
on schools and universities will 15% very worried. Those from an 58% of applicants feel ready to start
negatively affect their chance ethnic minority background were university (up from 55% in April),
of getting into their first-choice again more likely to report this, at 34% feel unprepared (down from
university. This is broadly similar 62% compared to 41% of White 40% in April). Strikingly, those from
to April 2020, when 48% felt the applicants. 51% of applicants with a state school are more than twice as
pandemic would negatively affect a Russell Group institution as their likely to feel unprepared for starting
their chances. As shown in Figure preference were worried about getting university – 36% reported this
15, those applying to a Russell Group their first choice, which was the compared to 17% of private school
university as a first choice were most same as those applying to pre-1992 applicants (Figure 17). Those from
likely to think the pandemic will institutions (51%) but 14 percentage an ethnic minority background were
negatively impact their chance of points higher (37%) than post-1992 more likely to say they do not feel
getting in, at 56% compared to 45% institution applicants. ready, with 37% feeling unprepared
applying to a pre 1992 or post 1992 53% were concerned about being compared to 32% of applicants who
institution. ready to start university in the autumn are white.
When asked in April about their (down slightly from 56% when asked
concerns over the coming months, in April). 2021 Applications and Offers
78% were worried about their exams
and the assessment process, with
Figure 16: Applicants' concerns over coming months comparing June 2021 to
33% very worried. Applicants at a April 2020
state school were more likely to be
worried than those at a private school
Covid restrictions at university 69%
(79% compared to 70% respectively). 66%
81% of applicants from an ethnic
minority background were worried – 4 Grades 78%
percentage points higher than white 58%
applicants (77%).
Being ready to start university in Autumn 56%
We asked applicants about their 53%
concerns again in June, once most
applicants had completed all their Getting a place at first choice university 62%
47%
assessments (Figure 16).31 58%
said were worried about their grades,
with 19% very worried. 73% of April '21 June '21
applicants from an ethnic minority
background were concerned – 23 Source: Youthsight student polling, June 2021 and April 2020
Figure 17: Readiness for university by school type
State funded school 11% 46% 7% 31% 5%
Private school 19% 55% 9% 11% 6%
Yes, I feel very well prepared Yes, I feel quite well prepared Not sure/don't know
No, I feel quite unprepared No, I feel very unprepared
Source: Youthsight student polling, June 2021
9As highlighted in the Figure 18: Higher education entry rate 2011-2020, by POLAR quintile
introduction, the last two 60.0%
years have seen increases 51.2%
in applications to university, 50.0% 45.6% 46.1% 46.5% 47.4%
43.9% 44.3%
accelerating the long-term 41.8% 43.1% 43.4%
trend. Figure 18 shows 40.0%
that acceptances have
also surged, and that the 30.0%
growth is seen both in areas
of high participation and 20.0% 23.3%
low participation. Record 21.0%
17.5% 18.4% 19.3% 19.7%
numbers of young people 16.6%
10.0% 14.0% 14.1% 15.2%
entered higher education
in 2020 from areas of the 0.0%
lowest participation, rising to 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
23.3% from 21%. However,
Quintile 1 (low participation) Quintile 2
this growth was outstripped
by areas of the country which Quintile 3 Quintile 4
typically send high numbers Quintile 5 (high participation)
to university, (51.2%, up
Source: UCAS
from 47.4%), meaning the
gap in absolute terms between more
affluent and more disadvantaged Figure 19: Applications and offers to high tariff universities, 2017-2021
areas grew once again. As Figure 18
shows, applications in 2021 have 700,000
surged again, however the impacts
on access, particularly to the most 600,000
selective universities, remains to be
500,000
seen.
UCAS data published by WonkHE 400,000
has shown that applications to high
300,000
tariff universities have increased
by 12% this year.32 Similarly, low 200,000
tariff institutions saw 13% growth
in applications. For context, growth 100,000
in 2020 was around 3% in both
categories. However, as Figure 19 -
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
shows, growth in offers has not kept
up at selective institutions. While Applications Offers
offers from high tariff universities
have indeed increased this year, from Source: WonkHE/UCAS
396,810 to 412,670, proportionally,
this is just a 4% increase. In pandemic are having very different growth, so with the possibility of
contrast, the number of offers at low effects on different parts of the some retrenchment this autumn, last
tariff universities has grown by 15%. sector, with high demand for high year’s gains may not be replicated.
The result is that the offer rate at tariff universities, boosted by higher
high tariff universities (the proportion grades, and increased competition
for students amongst low tariff DISCUSSION
of applications that convert to
offers for places) has dropped by 5 universities, many of which face Awarding grades
percentage points from 73.4% to significant financial challenges. This brief has highlighted how the
68.5%, while it has increased at The impacts on equity and access Covid-19 pandemic has continued
low tariff universities from 84.4% to are less clear. Substantial gains to to affect those taking school leaving
86.2% (Figure 20). This behaviour is access to selective universities in exams and applying to university this
likely to be driven by a combination 2020 may not be matched in 2021. summer, particularly those from lower
of capacity constraints, when many Data published by DataHE has socio-economic backgrounds. These
selective universities took on much shown that, while offer rates for all impacts have been across three broad
larger cohorts in 2020; along with POLAR quintiles at such universities areas: 1) impacts on learning, 2)
a reaction to the grade inflation of are down, those in Quintile 1 have impacts on exams and assessment,
last year. Anticipating similar or fallen less, indicating that high tariff and 3) impacts on the university
even higher grades in 2021, the institutions are trying to ‘protect’ application and entry process itself.
most selective universities appear under-represented groups from these In all three areas, while young people
to be lowering their offer rate to lower offer rates.33 Nonetheless, these from all backgrounds have been
compensate. The impacts of the groups do best in an environment of affected, there are additional threats
10to equity and fairness as the poorest Figure 20: Offer rates by university tariff, 2017-2021
have been hardest hit.
90% 86.2%
Urgent action is required from 82.8% 83.3% 84.4%
85% 81.5%
schools, colleges, universities
and policymakers to ensure that 80%
82.2% 82.7% 82.7% 82.4%
all students have fair chance of 80.2%
75%
getting into and thriving during their
70% 73.6% 73.1% 73.1% 73.4%
time at their preferred institution.
Furthermore, as the effects of the 65% 68.5%
pandemic are unlikely to end after 60%
this year, action will also likely be
55%
necessary in future years to prevent
further barriers to access and 50%
participation in higher education 45%
for other year groups earlier in their
40%
educational journey. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
The importance of ensuring
High tariff Medium tariff Low tariff
fairness and consistency in the
approaches between schools has
Source: WonkHE/UCAS
been a significant challenge this
year. Schools have taken a wide underpredict disadvantaged high-
range of different approaches to Admissions
achieving students in particular.39
assessing their pupils,34 and while While maintaining there was no Contextualising university admissions
some degree of flexibility has been bias evident in the 2020 results, has been a long term ask of the
necessary, there are questions around Ofqual’s own literature review warned Trust,41 and is particularly vital this
how to ensure that standards will of the evidence for bias in teacher year to ensure that poorer students
be consistent across the country assessment.40 who have faced more adverse impacts
with such variation in assessments. of the pandemic on their education
Grade inflation is another threat to
The decision not to have externally do not miss out on a place at their
the value of grades, both at A Level
set and externally marked in-class desired university. Such impacts
and GCSE. After last year’s significant
tests will inevitably impact on the include the circumstances students
inflation, it seems inevitable we will
consistency and integrity of this faced when learning at home during
see something similar this summer. In
year’s grades.35 With teachers now lockdowns, as well as the style of
fact, a return to pre-pandemic grade
having the final say, this places much assessments used to decide their
distributions would be manifestly
more responsibility on them, and we grades – this report has found wide
unfair to this cohort of students,
see the consequences of this in the variation in the number and type
particularly if they are competing for
pressure some have come under from of assessments being used, which
jobs or university places with last
parents. This is potentially unfair both could impact on grades achieved. The
year’s cohort. However, this stores up
on the teachers themselves as well uncertainties in this year’s grading
problems for the future. Next year we
as students. This comes on top of system, combined with the challenges
will face a similar dilemma: should
the additional workload of developing of learning at home and missing out
there be a return to a ‘normal’ grade
and marking assessments this year on classroom support, should all be
profile, or should accommodations
(without the extra pay that would considered by admissions staff when
be made once again for students
usually accompany exam marking), making their final decisions this
whose schooling has been disrupted.
along with schools expecting to summer. Universities should keep
Grades should be fair both within and
receive a significant number of in mind that there were differential
across cohorts (particularly adjacent
appeals to process this summer.36 As impacts this year both at a school
year groups who are likely to be
pressures on teachers surrounding level (for example, only a certain
competing in the future), and so there
education recovery continue over the amount of material was covered by
are few good answers. Any return to
coming years, it is key that teachers a class teacher due to disruption,
lower grades should be gradual, in
are given sufficient support. poor remote learning provision, or
order to avoid any individual cohorts
It was also concerning to find that assessments were done in particular
being punished unduly. It will be
a large proportion of teachers found ways), but also an individual level (for
particularly important to ensure that
the support and guidance given to example, lack of access to the right
any grading data is made publicly
them to determine grades this year37 equipment for online learning, less
available as soon as possible so
was insufficient, as there is a risk support in the home for learning, or
that researchers and policymakers
that unintentional and unconscious an unsuitable working environment).
have enough time to analyse before
biases may impact teachers' grading. confirming the approach for next Following this year’s abnormal
Research has shown that teacher year and beyond; the delay in assessment period, we are again
assessments can underestimate publishing the 2020 data has made approaching an unusual results day
the abilities of disadvantaged assessments of the impact of last which, as was the case last year,
students,38 and that predicted grades year’s system harder to discern. students are understandably
determined by teacher assessments concerned about. Recent data from
11UCAS has shown that this year there least, they should give particularly has been negatively impacted by
is a fall in offer rates (particularly careful consideration to Widening the pandemic45 – last year, the Trust
amongst high tariff institutions) for Participation offer holders. found that working class university
the first time in 9 years, following It is also more important than ever students were more likely to be
a record high in 2020.42 Having a that schools support their pupils concerned about their mental health
higher than normal intake last year this summer with navigating the and wellbeing compared to their
has meant that many institutions are admissions and clearing processes, better off peers.46
nearing capacity (related to staffing as well as with the appeals process Before the university term begins, it
as well as campus space). for those who are unhappy with will be key for universities to reach
Whilst the effect of this year’s grading their grades, taking into account the out to their new student cohort - after
on admissions is still unknown, the changes to the process this year. missing out on face-to-face visit
increase in applications, alongside This is important for disadvantaged days, universities should continue to
our polling showing a large proportion students particularly, who are more share online content with students
of students feeling confident that likely to require support from their to ensure they know what to expect
they will have done as or better than school and less likely to be able to when, most likely, arriving in a new
they expected, suggests there will get help from home and elsewhere. city. Moreover, when students can
once again be pressure on university Furthermore, extra support will gather on campus, universities
places. As individual-level learning be vital for next year’s university should do what they can to encourage
loss could not be considered in applicants from both schools and opportunities for students to interact
grading43 (and it remains to be universities, and should be a key part and socialise outside of learning time,
seen whether teachers have done of any catch-up provisions, as they to allow students to develop social,
this informally), students from will have also missed out on support team-working and other vital life
less well-off backgrounds could in navigating their options during skills. This is particularly important
be disadvantaged. If institutions school closures. Many outreach for students from disadvantaged
feel pressed for capacity, they may programmes, including Sutton Trust backgrounds who are more likely to
reduce the number of offers made programmes, will also again have be the first in their family to go to
by discretionary confirmation (when taken place online this year, meaning university and have fewer family or
students just missing out on their that young people are missing out friends who have been to university
original offer are given a place), on getting to experience a taste to share their experience. Previous
which are used by some institutions of campus life in person before research by the Sutton Trust found
to support students from a widening applying. participation in extra-curricular
participation background. They may activities fell considerably during
then make decisions based on extra the pandemic, and some of these
criteria, such as achieving a grade in Starting university activities may need additional
a particular subject, making it even Young people’s concerns about support from universities to get up
harder to get a place. falling behind in class because and running again.47 Although some
As a result, universities of the pandemic are important to regulations, such as social distancing,
contextualising results where keep in mind, even if students do depend on decisions made by the
possible this year will again be vital, achieve the grades required to get government, giving more clarity on
to prevent disadvantaged students into university. If certain topics have the situations where universities have
narrowly losing out on university been missed, there is a risk that control will help to reduce the levels
places. Universities should ensure students may arrive at university of concern amongst students about
that admissions and clearing teams without key foundations of subject Covid-related restrictions.
are working closely with those in their knowledge which could hold back Some universities have already
institution’s widening participation their progress and success in future announced long term plans regarding
team, so that contextual data and assessments, particularly those who blended learning,48 following the
access and participation targets are have experienced more disruption changes that had to be made during
being taken into account in decision- to their learning.44 And, if students the pandemic. Whilst it is good to see
making. When deciding who to start already feeling they are behind, that some institutions are setting out
admit onto a course and comparing it could make their transition harder, clear plans so students know what to
students to each other, particularly with potential impacts for their expect in the future, the reception
when students have missed their offer wider wellbeing and subsequent has been mixed amongst students,
by only a grade or two, staff should retention. Therefore, it is important with many feeling they had not been
take the likelihood of learning loss that universities offer support to properly consulted on the matter.49 If
and experience of adverse effects young people arriving this autumn blended learning approaches are to
of the pandemic into account. A and work with them to identify become commonplace, universities
student’s GCSE results could also be gaps in their knowledge that are should take into account that learning
used as context, which could help important for their degree. Wellbeing away from campus will be difficult
to give a sense of a student’s ability support will also be vital for students for some, particularly for those with
before the impacts of the pandemic settling into a new environment inadequate access to the internet
on learning. If institutions are facing during such a tumultuous time, or a suitable study space (when in
capacity constraints over the number particularly those from disadvantaged rented accommodation or remaining
of places they can offer, at the very backgrounds whose mental health living at home). When any long-term
12decisions are made regarding the learnt from, this year’s solution is far schools, universities and through
university experience, it is important from perfect. Many students are still national policy is required to ensure
that students are properly consulted likely to be unhappy with their results that disadvantaged young people do
and the voices of all students are and, depending on the appeals not carry the impacts of the pandemic
heard, to prevent changes that may process and how universities handle through to the next stage of their
negatively impact their learning their application, may miss out on a education, so that they can thrive at
experience. crucial next step in their education university and beyond.
While some of the mistakes of last which will have long term impact on
year’s grading system have been their careers. Concerted action from
RECOMMENDATIONS
For universities
• Applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds who have narrowly missed their offer grades should be given additional
consideration in the admissions process. Universities should strongly consider that young people, particularly those
from disadvantaged backgrounds, have faced additional challenges in their learning this year, which may not have
been taken into account in their grades. It is more vital than ever to take such factors into account and recognise
that grades may not reflect a young person’s full potential. Widening participation should be a key factor taken into
account when universities are giving discretionary acceptances to those who have missed their offers.
• Universities should provide additional wellbeing supports for the incoming cohort. This autumn’s university entrants
have been through an acutely difficult period. They are likely to have additional need of support for their wellbeing
and mental health as they transition to life in higher education. This could also include stronger support around
developing friendships, connections and taking part in university social life. Strong communication is important to
set expectations on the university environment and blended learning, particularly if some restrictions will continue.
• Universities should identify key gaps in learning at an early stage in the first term, and provide support if necessary.
Given the amount of schooling missed, there are likely to be knowledge and skills gaps among this year’s entry
cohort. The importance of such gaps will differ by subject studied, but plans should be put in place to support
students who may need to develop in key areas necessary to succeed in their course.
For schools
• It is more important than ever for schools to provide as much support to students as possible around results day
and during the clearing period, which could be done remotely if necessary. Students who may be first in family
to attend university, or those from disadvantaged backgrounds, may need particular support as they may lack the
support from home and through networks to navigate what could be a complex and stressful period, compounded by
the impact of the pandemic.
For policymakers
• Pupil premium and recovery premium funding, as well as National Tutoring Programme provision, should be
extended to 16-19 year olds in education and training. Given the events of the pandemic, it is more important than
ever that targeted support for disadvantaged learners should not end at 16.
• Data on this year’s GCSE and A Level results should be made available to researchers at an early stage as possible,
in order to understand patterns in this year’s results. Delays with the release of 2020 data have hampered our
understanding of last year’s process, with knock on effects for this year.
• There must be a long-term plan for assessment in 2022 and beyond. After two years of cancelled exams,
lost learning, and substantial grade inflation, transitioning back to the ‘pre-pandemic’ status quo will be
hugely challenging. Any return to pre-pandemic grade distributions should be done gradually, in order to avoid
disadvantaging any one cohort unduly.
13APPENDIX A: ASSESSMENTS BEING USED FOR GCSE GRADING
When looking at GCSEs specifically, the vast majority (96%) of teachers again said that assessments sat in exam
conditions were used to determine TAGs. As with A levels, assessments based on past papers were again the most
common form of assessment being used (76%). 65% used mock examinations, 35% used assessments written by
teachers, 19% used previous classroom work, and 11% used homework. 16% of teachers reported that their students
had prior access to the questions in their assessments, 12% said their students could see the mark schemes before
completing their assessments and 11% said the assessments were ‘open book’. Again, a small number of teachers
(3%) said the same papers were used multiple times to decide grades.
There were also notable differences in the types of assessments being used in private schools compared to state
schools. Whilst teachers in private schools were almost just as likely to say that students completed assessments in
exam conditions compared to state schools (98% compared to 96% respectively), they were more likely to report ‘open
book’ assessments being used (18% compared to 10% in state schools), prior access to assessment questions being
given (22% compared to 15% in state schools) and prior access to mark schemes being given (16% compared to 11%
in state schools).
Looking at state schools specifically, unlike with A levels, the types of assessment being used did not appear to vary
between the levels of affluence of schools.
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